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Kennzahlen
📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 43,78 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 7,51 Mrd. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 43,78 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 8,36 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 43,34 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 7,51 Mrd. $
Enterprise Value = 43,34 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 8,36 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
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Autodesk — 2026 Baird Global Consumer
1. Question Answer
Doesn't that just make you so excited to be here and to listen to Autodesk. I'm Joe Vruwink. I cover vertical software at Baird. Very happy to have Autodesk. This is software for the built world and what architects and engineers, manufacturers, operators. They use it all.
Sid Haksar leads the construction strategy. Simon Mays-Smith, Investor Relations. This is going to be a fireside chat format. If you have questions, you can e-mail Session 2 at RW Baird. But let me turn it over to Simon and Sid for an intro first.
Yes. So just sort of briefly, for those of you who don't know Autodesk, what we're trying to do is connect workflows end-to-end in the cloud with a layer of AI on top of it, something we've been working on for almost a decade and years ahead of our competitors, not just in the hard stuff, the frontier model building, but also the technology stack that sits underneath it and how we ingest and process data.
We're operating, as Joe said, in AEC, in manufacturing, and media and entertainment. And we're pretty excited about the future. We've also made an acquisition last week in operations. So we've had design and make and now extending into operations to complete the data across the asset life cycle. So we're pretty excited about that, too, but I'm sure we're going to talk about it.
Why don't we talk about that? So if I can channel all the questions I've gotten on this, I think, one, strategic rationale and why something like this now; two, price paid and whether that's a fair or unfair valuation and then; three, I think a lot of investors associate Autodesk upstream with project delivery, not downstream with how these different disciplines operate after the design. Is this a totally new undertaking for you? Or is this more of a gap fill around things you've already been closing in on?
So I'll start with the last one because it also answers the first one, which is that the ultimate customer for our entire business is the owner, the asset owner. So right at the front end of the process, it's the owner that is trying to make something in manufacturing, or is trying to build a building to generate a yield from it. And that owner then commissions a construction company, a design company and a construction company to build it and then somebody to operate it. And so what owners want is to understand how their asset is performing across the asset life cycle. But to do that, they need data.
And today, data is stuck in silos, thousands of different silos and not brought together. So in simple terms, what we're trying to do is to create a single model from right at the beginning of the process in conceptual design through to the end where you tear down the building and hopefully recycle and put up a new building. And so what we've been doing for the last, what, 15 years is building out a connected data, common data environment as it would be called in AEC, starting in our traditional business in design, building into construction, which Sid has been responsible for, and we can talk about a bit. And then the latest step is then the final stage, which is in the operations phase, which is the post construction phase.
The reason that phase is important, and the reason now, is because we've built our construction business now to a sufficient size and sufficient momentum where we're beginning to tear down the leaders in that field and take leadership in that field that we now have bandwidth and capacity to then focus on operations.
So in terms of operations, we bought a business called MaintainX. And the reason we did is that, that operates in one of the core functionality bits within the operations phase, the sort of the maintenance part. And the reason that's important is that, that is a core piece of functionality across all operations assets. So whether it's a factory or a commercial building or a piece of infrastructure, every single one of them will need a piece of software to enable people to maintain it and keep it up and running. And so if you look at the sort of $40 billion TAM for operations, the biggest single chunk of it is in what's called the CMMS market.
So that's the key piece of software. So that's why MaintainX, that is why we call it our cornerstone acquisition. It's the big chunk because it sits a central role. And it sits on top of the piece of software that we already have, which is the digital twin, which is the final as-built version of a building, which you then plug into sensors, which allows you to monitor and over time with AI, predict faults in the building. And then what MaintainX does is when something goes wrong, it allows you to then take action and fix it basically. So that's what it is.
In terms of sort of the multiple paid, a few things to think about. Firstly, as we've said is we're following our construction playbook. So the construction playbook, as you said, is we spent about $1.8 billion in our construction business. We built a business that over the last 12 months has generated about $600 million of revenue. So that's 3x revenue, as you can see, a pretty good multiple. It's growing more than 20%. So if you look at the multiple that we paid for MaintainX, just think about a path as we build it up as it grows rapidly, and that multiple will come down pretty quickly.
In terms of the opportunity and how we do that, there's a few things. Firstly, if you look at the construction TAM, it's about $11 billion TAM. The operations TAM is a $40 billion TAM. So a much bigger market opportunity for us is the first thing. And the second thing is the duration of that TAM is that our design and make business is a year's business in terms of our interaction with an asset. The operations business is a decades-long business. So once you build the building, 80% of the cost of a building is post construction. And so managing the efficiency of that is, for the owner, of critical importance. So that's what we're trying to do. So at the moment, we can only address in terms of efficiency, 20% of the cost of a building, it's the other 80% that we're now seeking to address with the acquisition of MaintainX building on top of Tandem, which we bought -- built in organically ourselves.
And then the sort of final thing is data, is that the MaintainX business is a cloud-native business, mobile-first business. The vast majority of the traditional incumbents in this field are on-premise software customer integration is very expensive. But the key thing is that getting access to the data with on-premise software is very hard. So what MaintainX does is it has 8 years of data, which is useful and which we can apply our AI to not just in the operations phase, but we can then, with inference use that operations data then start making inference upstream in the conceptual design phase. So when you're doing conceptual design right at the beginning of the process, if you can have something saying, go and install the HVAC system because 2 years after construction, you're going to have a problem. That is immensely valuable information for our customers with Leona. So that's what we're doing. I should probably stop there and we get on to the next.
Yes. No, that's great. And you kind of hinted it's growing 50% right now, but 50% also not unreasonable to think about next year as well. So there's some work...
I'm not going to give you a revenue forecast because -- or an ARR forecast because we haven't done it, but I'm not allowed to. In terms of the opportunity, MaintainX has focused primarily on factories to start with and is just beginning to think about a few other things where we can be quite helpful to them. The first one being AEC. As you know, we have a very, very large AEC business. And as I said, the assets -- the commonality of the maintenance system is transferable across into AEC as well. So that's something we can help them with a lot.
Secondly, we can help them with enterprise is that they've -- because they're a small startup company, been focusing on single assets and single sites, what we can do is help them up-level those conversations to all of the assets owned by the owner across the country or across the globe.
And then the third one is international is that they are primarily a U.S. company today and we can help them expand internationally both with our sales teams and our eStore, but also with our channel partners, too.
I think just one thing worth adding is that while the MaintainX acquisition showed up, I think last week, we've been looking at the operations space for over 4-plus years. It has been a natural progression because as we serve the needs of owners on the construction side, the next foray for them, you're targeting capital projects teams, but then their facilities teams. So it's a very nice adjacency for our owner base.
We also made an investment, I believe, I think it was about 4 years ago in a company called Eptura that's owned by Thoma Bravo. So while we've been investors in the company, we've also been learning this space very closely and understanding what's working and what's not. So in a way, we've also derisked a lot of how we think about the space going into this acquisition.
So to give you an example, which Sid's been working on with the New England Patriots is that we're sort of helping them build their stadium. But one of the required output of that project is a digital twin because they're already thinking in the construction phase is how they're going to manage the asset once it's been built. So owners are thinking about this and so are we.
Okay. Maybe let's go back to the construction piece, and you talked about that $11 billion TAM. I'm going to ask 2 questions. One, if you look at that TAM, Autodesk has done very well accelerated growth into the 20s, but all of your peers have also accelerated their growth over the last few years. So there's something happening in the category itself that is allowing for more success. Maybe we can talk about what you're seeing at kind of an aggregate or macro level and then we'll get into how Autodesk is different therein.
Well, there's one that's notably decelerating in construction, but do you want to take the question?
Yes. So just generally, while there are different pockets of the industry, there's some puts and takes, right? For example, right now, data centers are on fire. There's power grid upgrades that are happening as a result of the data center or the AI infrastructure that's coming up. So there's a lot of growth there. We're seeing health care growing really rapidly. We're seeing also stadiums, believe it or not, at least in the U.S., are seeing a really nice ramp as people are doing big CapEx upgrade cycles. That said, the industry itself is still not as digitized as you would think. It's a very big industry. And so there's just this push.
If you just look at within the United States still, there's plenty of opportunity of getting companies that are still sitting on either Excel or using very low-grade ERPs to manage projects. If you take a step out of just the U.S., then you start to look at, say, for example, countries like India, which is the third largest construction market now globally, it's caught up in a very short period of time, fueled by the infrastructure boom as well.
If you go and travel to India, you'll see construction really has been done using paper and Excel, surprising, but it is. And so now those companies that operate there are seeing that in order to do a good job, you have to use technology. And so there's just a secular trend of people using tech and our solutions to manage these projects. And then when you talk about labor shortages that are impacting the industry, schedules are compressing, projects are becoming more complex, you really need to be building right the first time. So we don't see that stopping. People have to invest in tech to become more efficient and deal with it.
Talk a bit about why having the design and construction tools together is that important.
Well, so for us, the differentiation coming out of -- so that's kind of the general theme as to why not only us but our peers as well have all benefited and grown with it. So there's plenty of opportunity out there. But when you bring it back to what's different from Autodesk relative to our peer group, obviously, this is one thing that we don't talk too much about, but Simon said $600 million, that's cloud. You think about how much are we generating from just the construction industry, selling them not only our cloud tools but also our modeling desktop tools that's in excess of $1 billion. So I say that because we've already got a very strong installed base of contractors upstream using design.
So that's one of our key differentiators. Historically, [indiscernible] construction wasn't as robust/mature. So there was a need for contractors to go use what was best-in-class at the time, given where we've reached now, the story of being on one platform starts to resonate tremendously. Obviously, when you layer in opportunities with artificial intelligence, having access to your information, across the project life cycle becomes that much more critical. So upstream, we've got a very strong foothold. We've matured our platform to be end-to-end.
The third thing I'll add is flexibility when it comes to our business model. So we are not just wedded to one particular type of model. We can be user-based pricing. We can be a percentage of construction volume. We are consumption when you look at some of our enterprise customers. So that's the third piece, I said. And then the fourth piece for us is really our geo footprint, and that is enabled really by our channel partners. So we already have a very strong network across multiple countries. So that allows us to go to market at scale.
Just to sort of piggyback on the back of that, that connection between design and make as a competitive advantage, that same thing is true in operations because the final version of the building is the digital twin and then extending that with things like MaintainX into operations, it's exactly the same strategy.
Yes. Let's talk about AI and maybe to start a bit of a thought exercise. So if you think about being a protein scientists or like a coder, AI has changed what you do forever. So let's rate that at 10 out of 10. When you think about construction professionals or even going into design just the work that architects do, like where would you peg them on the same 10-point scale?
So for us, I'll talk about construction. I think it's very early right now. 1, I'd probably say between 1 to 2 is kind of where it is. And the reasons for that obviously, adoption of technology, new technology takes a little while as we've seen. When you -- especially when you think about where you can see a lot of the impact, I think a lot of the impact you're going to see in the field. I think people that are working out of the offices, it makes a lot of sense. Just to give you -- you don't need to have some really complicated use cases to get value. There are some very basic use cases.
So one thing that we have today, just imagine for a second, you're a superintendent on a job site and you're looking and making sure that everything is working in order and you find a pipe that has a crack. So now you need to create an issue of that and let people know that, hey, there's this pipe that's cracked so we need to fix it. Typically, when you create that issue, you have to document that issue. You take a photo of the crack and then you document it. And imagine a big job, you end up spending a lot of time documenting issues. With AI, and today we have that in our product, you can take a photo and when you take that photo, the AI will tell you what that is using our computer vision and it will auto populate the description of that issue.
So what would probably take about 2 minutes now gets compressed to maybe 15 to 20 seconds at the most. The individual just looks at and make sure from a quality control standpoint, it's right and then it gets sent out. That, again, is something -- it's not very complicated, but it saves a ton of time for people on the field when right now, there's massive labor shortages. And you need that superintendent working on more impactful things than actually documenting stuff and spending time doing manual work.
So we do believe, just given where labor shortages are going to show up, we do expect in the field, you're going to see some outsized productivity gains with the use of AI. On the flip side, in the office, we're starting to see that take off more just because the user base is more attuned to using technology and some manual tasks that can be automated, they are embracing that. But the field is where, I think, you'll be able to get a lot of productivity gains right off the bat once this gets more mainstream.
So I wanted to ask on that because the use case you shared is super important, very valuable. I would say, I actually see more kind of AI in preconstruction and then in like the scheduling aspect where the field matters the most. So what's kind of the disconnect where people are focused on kind of the edges versus what we're talking about doing in the field as most consequential. Why the focus on pretty...
Why [indiscernible] construction?
Yes, why has that been the initial focus, it seems?
So first of all, it's people that are in the office are more receptive to technology. And also, the other piece I will say is projects are made or lost in preconstruction. So if you end up scoping a bid inaccurately, then the margins are going to fade once you get out there on the job side. If you don't capture the right -- if your scopes of work don't match what are the specifications articulated by the architect, you may install work that then has to have a significant component of rework. So you need to remove what you put in place. Again, it has an impact on margins.
So getting all of that right happens in preconstruction. So that's why you're seeing a lot of companies come in or AI technologies try to make that as robust so as a risk mitigation tool. So that's what you're seeing is risk mitigation in precon. I think you want to see productivity really manifest in the field.
The challenge, and maybe we can talk about this is most folks, companies lack data in context and they also lack 3D engineering capabilities, too. And that's something Autodesk has inspected. I'll wait and see if you want to talk about that a bit.
No, I think you run a survey every year around like AI acceptance and where the interest is, where the pain points are. And I think the biggest pain point in the most recent survey was just system integration like you don't have anything connected and so the data might be out there, but you have no idea how to actually use it exactly.
So this is why what Sid was saying in the connecting the design and make and then what I was saying about operations then connecting the design and make into operations. That's why that's important.
What we are also starting to see increasingly within our customer base, historically, companies have had a [ whole host ] of point solutions. That's going to start to go away as they continue to consolidate their spend in specific platforms. So that's another thing. And partly is what you just raised because of data sitting in so many different silos and not -- systems not talking to each other.
One thing I've always appreciated about Autodesk is you're making these investments before anyone is asking you to do it. So like cloud was 2010, give or take, and then Forge, which became the platform services strategy a few years later and then you were kind of getting data ready for training before GenAI was a thing.
I want to focus on Autodesk platform services so that began as an API strategy and I kind of think that's morphing into the MCP server strategy to the point where when Claude is looking to embrace creative companies, Autodesk is part of that announcement with MCP servers, you've built out kind of the important, it gets to what we're talking about of making it easier for customers to move data around, but the importance of the strategy in AI investments that are now happening.
Yes. So let me talk about that a subject close to my heart. So just quick detail. And by the way, everything I'm about to say, if you look at our Q4, the last 4 pages of our Q4 opening commentary and the last 4 pages of our Q1 opening commentary, I strongly encourage you to read them if you're interested in AI. What I'm about to say is in there. So not related to that question, you need data context to build a foundation model, to build a knowledge graph on which you can build a foundation model.
Data is scarce in our industry because it's not available on the public web. It's locked up in [ 1.1 million ] different company systems and so if you have access to it through the cloud, which we do, most of our competitors don't, because they only have on-premise software, then you can build, have enough data to build foundation models. You also need context because the assets that we're building are constantly changing. The building site on day 20 is different from the one on day 30, is different from the one on day 40. You have to know the -- what's leading up to a particular point in a decision and what happens after it. You have to understand the sequencing of how everything is put together.
So there's a bunch of context you need and data to build a knowledge graph and those are very hard to come by in our industry. And then once you've done that, you also need 3D engineering. Just to be clear, LLMs are 2D. They're sort of words and coding. They don't reason in 3D like our models do. And 3D inference is really hard to do. And we know that because we've been trying to do it for almost a decade. Again, years ahead of, as Joe said, of need, so to speak. So we're years ahead of our competitors on that. So doing all that stuff is hard. We've been doing it for almost a decade and we're years ahead of our competitors. But then once you're doing that, you're launching foundation models, that's when the technology stack becomes important.
So just to give you sort of 2 examples, one of which is everyone worrying about token maxing and gross margins, something we've been talking about. Gross margin pressure is something you cannot escape as you put more workflows and high compute workflows into the cloud. So what you're trying to do is to figure out how to bend the curve. But critical to that is how you ingest and process data. So that's something and the reason why Autodesk platform services is so important is we've done a bunch of work over the efficiency with which we can ingest data and then how we process data. So to give you 2 examples.
None of this sounds very sexy, but it's critically important. One is around the data model is that if you go into our customer systems and look at all the models, what you'll find is that the data is fragmented, so they have an HVAC system in one file. They've got the structural building in another. So if you turn up and scan it, you don't have a whole building to make inference on. And so the reason the data model is important is it brings all of that disparate data back together again and allows you to extract meaning from it. We've done that work. It's really hard math to do that. And what it means is that for any given data set, we can extract more value and more meaning from it in a scalable and efficient way than anybody else.
At the other end of the spectrum, when you're doing inference, if you try and put 3D inference through a stack that's built for 2D, it's very cost inefficient. It uses much more capacity and costing more money than it needs to. So what we've done is we've built our own inference stack on top of AWS, which is massively more efficient at 3D inference, a cost-efficient than doing the equivalent inference on 2D stacks. And virtually all of the other stacks are built for 2D inference because nobody is trying to solve a problem or very few people are trying to solve a 3D inference problem. So that's why the technology stack is so important in terms of AI. But it's also important to Joe's point, is around how you develop your offering.
So what we've been doing, and this is a sort of technical [ debt ] problem is we built a bunch of stuff over the last 40 years and essentially building the same functionality across the organization. And what we've been doing over the last 3 or 4 years is creating more common components so that when you update something, it propagates across the entire product suite rather than having to go in and update everything at once.
What it also enables us to do with the help of AI is to start creating new value. So one of the underrated things that we were talking about last week is we have probabilistic AI models, and we're using our deterministic parametric models, which we've been using for the last 40 years to validate our AI models. And that loop, so we create a probabilistic outcome, [indiscernible], don't walk into a building that's been created by a probabilistic model because it might fall down. And we validate it with a deterministic model which we've had for 40 years and that loop allows us then to improve our AI models in that loop, again, sort of massively improvement. But what we've done is we've -- those parametric models sit within our traditional products, so Revit and Fusion, et cetera. And what we've been able to do is to extract just the parametric model and then plug it into our AI models to make them more efficient.
Doing that a year ago would have been inconceivably hard to think about doing. But with AI and new engineering techniques, we were able to do that [indiscernible] parametric model from our engineering. So one of our core beliefs is that AI is about doing more with the same number of people. It's not about doing the same with fewer people. But what you have to do is to be able to conceive of hard stuff and hard problems to solve. And I think that's going to be a key challenge for most organizations. Fortunately, one thing Autodesk loves doing is solving hard problems. That's why we started trying to solve AI 10 years ago. It's why we started trying to solve the cloud 20 years ago. We always try and solve hard problems that it plays to our strength.
How does that all get monetized? I've heard that the Autodesk direct sales team is trying to encourage their customers to token max because increasingly, you can kind of get tied into that. What's the strategy there?
We're not encouraging to token max. And actually, and this is again another -- which I'll discuss with the bottle of whiskey if anybody wants to. But it's not about maximizing tokens because if you're doing that, you're going to find soon that your AI agent cost you more than a human being does. It's actually about sipping, not sucking the tokens and building the software that enables you to do that. Otherwise, you're going to have products that are too expensive and not doing the job that you need them to do to drive efficiency in the industries.
What we are trying to do is to enable our customers to try stuff and to build stuff and try stuff, partly because that's for their benefit. But what also it does for us is it generates data exhausts, which are useful for us as they do that. So yes, we're trying to encourage them to do it. What we're not trying to do is consume bad calories from it. We want them actually to become more match fit as a result of it.
And that's bringing customers into kind of a new subscription, different subscription than a seat tied to a model. These are bundles of API uses that you can monetize.
So exactly that. And I think this is -- I don't know whether it's a consensus, but emerging consensus is that the subscription is going to be around for a very, very long time. And included in the subscription will be a core level of functionality and a core level of capacity will be included in your base subscription. And then if you need additional capacity for high compute workloads and high-value workloads like AI, you will essentially buy additional capacity. So very similar.
So a little known fact, 17% of our business is already consumption, which is a type of capacity model. There are others. But it behaves like -- financially like a subscription because essentially, people buy capacity ahead of time and then consume against that capacity on a use it or lose it basis. So consumption doesn't have to be volatile. So you can give the customer the benefit of flexibility and certainty whilst also enabling us to have predictable and ratable revenue streams.
Maybe with the little time we have left to talk about something more recent, and you've taken control of your sales channel. You used to have a 2-tier distribution model. Now you're direct. What's been kind of the biggest learnings from that and benefits that you originally thought you would get are the benefits coming through?
Yes. So I said earlier, [ Auto superpowers ] is we try -- we do hard stuff. And so this is a good example. But it's sort of a function of -- and you should be asking all of our competitors this is there's a bunch of stuff you have to do just to get on to the starting grid of AI. You have to sort out your technology stack for the reasons I talked about. You have to have cloud-based software. You have to have more direct integration with your customers, which I'm going to talk about in a second. That's why I'm mentioning it. You have to have a bunch of different business models. So you can't just be subscription, you also have to have metered access models like consumption, et cetera, as well.
All of these things are really hard to do, but Autodesk has been doing them over the last 5 to 10 years, which means -- which is why -- and also you have to invest in AI and the engineering capabilities to build foundation models. They're all really hard to do. They all mess up your P&L, balance sheet, cash flows and margins while you're doing them. And we've been doing that for the last 10 years, 15 years in the case of the cloud, in a way that most of our competitors have not been doing. They have to do it and the time they have available to do it is getting shorter at a faster rate because of AI. So the risk of getting it wrong is greater.
So the most recent one we've done is our sales reorganization, but the intent is essentially to have ourselves more directly integrated with our customers, enabling that with more things like more self-service, more auto renew and more co-terming, et cetera so that you have more automation essentially in the process and then using that then to help our customers build on top of us to drive more new applications and more for them and more revenue opportunities for us as well over time.
In terms of the -- it is hard to do. So we had a significant restructuring earlier on this year. We also, at the same time, ripped all of the custom stuff we've built on top of Salesforce, put ourselves onto the base Salesforce platform and then have added a lot of the AI functionality that Salesforce have introduced to enable sales productivity, et cetera, which we weren't able to do because of the customization we had on the platform.
So all of that stuff is hard. It creates disruption, which we've talked about, but well within the expectations that we've set out in February.
Great. With that, we're out of time. There will be a breakout session, but please join me in thanking Autodesk.
Thank you.
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Autodesk — 2026 Baird Global Consumer
Autodesk — 2026 Baird Global Consumer
Autodesk verbindet Design, Bau und Betrieb in der Cloud, baut mit KI und der Akquise von MaintainX den Schritt in ein größeres, lang laufendes Betriebsmarktsegment.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: Autodesk will den Datenfluss über den gesamten Asset-Lebenszyklus schließen (Design→Bau→Betrieb) und nutzt KI plus eigene Plattform-Services, um durch 3D‑Inference und Datenkontext einen technischen Vorsprung aufzubauen.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- MaintainX‑Akquise: Zielt auf Computerized Maintenance Management (CMMS) und erweitert Addressable Market auf den Operations‑TAM von etwa $40 Mrd. (Total Addressable Market, TAM).
- Plattform & KI: Fokus auf Datenmodellierung, 3D‑Inference-Stack und Basis‑/Kontextdaten aus Cloud‑Installationen als Grundlage für branchenspezifische Foundation‑Modelle.
- Go‑to‑Market: Sales‑Reorganisation hin zu direktem Kontakt, mehr Self‑Service und Verbrauchsbasierter Monetarisierung; bereits ~17% Umsatz aus Consumption‑Modellen.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Kurz zuvor angekündigte MaintainX‑Übernahme als "Cornerstone" für Operations; keine quantitativen ARR‑Prognosen genannt, Management verweist auf Integrations- und Skalierungspfad.
- Technik: Eigener, kostenoptimierter 3D‑Inference‑Stack auf AWS zur Senkung von AI‑Compute‑Kosten; Datenmodellierung zur Zusammenführung fragmentierter Dateien.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Bewertung: Frage nach Preis/Multiple für MaintainX; Management argumentiert mit hohem TAM und Skalierbarkeit, verweist auf 3x aktuelle Bau‑Erträge als Referenz.
- Monetarisierung: Wie AI‑Kosten (Token/Compute) gesteuert werden — Antwort: kein Token‑Maximieren, Basis‑Subscription plus zusätzliche Capacity/Consumption.
- Execution‑Risiko: Folgen der Sales‑Reorganisation und System‑Migration (Salesforce) auf kurzfristige Produktivität und Margen; Management bestätigt kurzzeitige Disruption, aber im erwarteten Rahmen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Die MaintainX‑Akquise und die Plattform‑/KI‑Investitionen erweitern Autodesk’s TAM und vertiefen die Plattformbindung mit längerer Kundenlaufzeit (Betrieb statt nur Projekt). Kurzfristig bleibt Integrations‑ und Margenrisiko (AI‑Compute, Sales‑Reorg), langfristig aber ein klarer technologischer Moat bei 3D‑Daten und branchenspezifischer KI. Aktionäre sollten Wachstumspotenzial im Operations‑markt gegen Ausführungs- und Kostenrisiken abwägen.
Autodesk — Bank of America 2026 Global Technology Conference
1. Question Answer
Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Tomer Zilberman, and I lead coverage of the vertical software and back office applications sector here at Bank of America. I'm very excited to be closing out day 2 of our conference with Janesh Moorjani, CFO of Autodesk. Janesh, first of all, thank you for being with us. And I know you want to read a safe harbor statement and say some other words before we start.
This is the most important announcement of the day. may forward-looking statements during the course of this presentation. Please refer to our SEC filings for information on risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements. So now that we're all a little bit safer. But thank you for having us, Tom. We appreciate it. And thank you for picking up coverage. I want to thank Koji as well. I see him in the audience there. Terrific working with him. And we appreciate the partnership with BofA.
So big shoes to fill after Koji. Maybe to start with a high-level question, Janesh. For the investors that are newer to the story, Autodesk has went through several business model transitions over the last few years. So if you could just kind of remind us what they are -- what the impact was for the business over the last few years? And really how does it position you appropriately for AI and Agentic?
Yes, it's a great question, Tomer. It's a good thing to set that context because all of these transitions that we've been through really are done with the intent of having a technology platform and a business model that was designed for what the future will hold. And they say successes when opportunity meets preparation, and I feel like that's where we are. So over the years, we've made a number of changes in the business. We changed from perpetual to subscription like many other companies did. Some years ago, we shifted from billing our customers for the entire TCV upfront to billing annually on multiyear contracts. We just completed that transition here in this past quarter. So that's behind us.
We also changed our customer buying experience in many markets around the world, where traditionally, a customer would buy from a reseller in those markets, and we shifted that to more of a direct buying relationship. The reseller still plays a very important role in terms of engaging with the customer and creating demand as well as getting quotes from Autodesk and so forth, but the transaction flows through directly with Autodesk, which gives us much richer information about what customers are doing with the products, how they're using our products, what they actually have. And all of that sets us up very nicely for the future, particularly when you pair that with the investments we've made on the technology side, investing in our platform and investing in our industry clouds. So these investments on the technology side and on the business model transitions have set us up very nicely for the future.
On that last business model transition that I talked about where just about seeing the effects of that work through the financial model. So I realize it's been a little bit hard for people to pass through some of that in the last couple of years. But we are starting to see the effects of that finally were off, and we should largely be done with that this fiscal year.
Right. I certainly want to go into maybe some of the nuances of what you were discussing. But before we go into that, I think the topic du jour is your announcement last week of the acquisition of Maintain X.
Very exciting.
Yes, right. $3.6 billion sticker price. I think it's the largest acquisition you guys have made to date. So I just want to give you the platform first to talk about it is, what it adds to your portfolio? And really why now?
Yes. It's -- Maintenex is a very exciting acquisition for us. For us, -- when we think about our -- how we play across the entire life cycle and maybe to just provide a little bit of longer-term context, Autodesk historically started off as a plan and design company. And for decades, we were a plan and design company. And we extended across the life cycle into make, whether you think about construction, whether you think about areas like Fusion, and we started to extend into that good 7, 8 years ago. And extending further into operate now allows us to close the loop on that entire life cycle across all of plan design, make and operate. So assets that you plan and design -- you have them built, and then you can see how they now perform in the real world. So closing that loop is really important for us for a couple of reasons. One is it significantly expands our addressable market. Operations by itself is roughly a $40 billion TAM. And if I draw an analogy to construction, it's significantly larger in terms of a market opportunity than construction was.
In the area of construction, we entered the construction market with Cornerstone acquisition, and then we built around that with organic investments as well as smaller bolt-on acquisitions. And in operations, we intend to follow the same playbook. So in construction, we expended about $1.8 billion of acquisition capital, and we built a business that's about $600 million in size today, growing north of 20%. So that's a really exciting business that we built in construction, and we're largely looking to replicate that in operations. And operations ultimately will be an even bigger business just given the sheer size of the market opportunity that we have in that space. So that's a really exciting piece on why operations, and it's a logical extension from plan design and make into operations.
What that also does is it allows us to further strengthen our AI capabilities. We've invested for many years in AI, and we've talked about how data context and expertise are the 3 core differentiators for us with respect to our AI strategy. The complexity of the models that we've built, training them on real-world projects and that data doesn't exist in the public domain for others to necessarily train on, and the context that we have and the richness of the context that we have around how those assets are -- how that design process comes together, how those assets are actually constructed, everything from workflows to information about the buildability, the auditability, all of those things.
So you then extend that to operations where maintenance has about 14,000 customers, about 10 million assets under management. And over the years, they've collected very rich data around the operational aspects of that data in terms of how those assets are behaving in the real world. They've collected very rich workflow context on the performance of those assets. When you pair that up with the data and the context that we have on the plan, design and make space, that allows us to close the full loop, which then allows us to deliver much more sophisticated outcomes to all of our customers. If you think about owners who have owner operators who have interest in everything from plan all the way to the operate phase, it allows us to create much richer outcomes for them and ultimately leads to workflows much higher-value AI workflows leading all the way up to autonomous operations.
So it's a super exciting space, both as a stand-alone space and Maintenance X as a stand-alone business But also the complementarity and the synergies that it gives us with respect to our own existing business, those were really important factors as we thought about the acquisition.
Right. Maybe going back to the first part of compare to the construction opportunity, right? If we contextualize the opportunity set in both. I think you said $600 million trailing 12 months for construction going 20%. If we take the operate asset, it's growing nicely 50%, like you disclosed, and it's about 2% of the business, right? Construction, I think, is closer to a little shy of 10 right? How long do you think the time line is to scale to something like 10%? Is it going to take you the same amount of time that it did to scale out the construction piece? Or because you've already had such experience, you can do in a shorter time frame.
I think that time frame will largely be determined by both how fast the construction business itself grows and we've not run out of any runway on growth over there. We still see that growing for many years to come. As well as on the operate side, we'll grow organically. Maintenance X will continue to grow, but we might also have bolt-on acquisitions in the future. So the intent of describing it in that framework was to help people understand that this is really a long-term opportunity that we see. And what operate or what Maintenance X does for us in terms of operations, it adds 1 more revenue-accretive growth stream for us on top of a base business that is already performing really well, and that we think is set up quite nicely for the future.
Got it. Maybe to ask you a little bit more on the base business. How do you see the growth trajectory of the core business over the next 2, 3 years? -- for design and make. Is there a concern that there could be a slowdown in this market that kind of prompted you guys to go out and make an acquisition of the size?
I don't think that's -- I don't think these things are related. We actually have a deep belief in the strength of the underlying business. If you look at our performance over the last several years, fiscal '24, '25, '26, we've been a consistent and very resilient grower. The underlying markets in which we operate, the demand for those -- the demand drivers there are secular demand drivers. They've continued to be there. You see that during different periods of economic growth or variation. So we feel very good about that. And we laid out a lot of those at our Investor Day last year where we talked about not just our existing core businesses, but opportunity that we see in areas like construction continuing to grow, Fusion continuing to grow, opportunities in infrastructure and transportation. Those are all key growth drivers for us. So nothing has really changed in terms of our long-term thesis on the business.
In operate, we actually declared our intention in that space also about 8 months ago. So this is nothing new that we've done trying to react to anything of that sort, but it's really a logical extension. Our core belief is that you should extend into adjacencies when you are playing from a position of strength. And our underlying business has remained strong. In AI, we are doing very well compared to many of the others in the industry. And so we feel like we're operating from a position of strength. And nothing here really changes our view of the underlying business, so looking out over the next few years.
Right. Maybe I'll ask you to dig maybe 1 layer deeper into the differentiation of Maintain X. And kind of talk about the competitive landscape right now is. When we think about your operate business and what you have now with MaintainX, is it more about competing with other, call it, platform vendors that are offering the gamut of design to make to operate? Or is it more about the next-gen mobile-first point product solutions.
I don't see others really competing with us across the entire landscape the way we envision it. And our core differentiators there continue to be great strength for us. I think there's a lot of point players in different parts of that ecosystem that entire life cycle that you compete with from a more narrow perspective. But on plan, design and make, I think we feel very well positioned as a broad platform provider.
With respect to operations and how that factors in, Operations is a highly fragmented space. There are many, many different providers in that space. There are some legacy technology providers. There are some slower moving providers that were built on traditional stacks, desktop software. They don't have great access to data. So in many instances, those are the ones that are being replaced. There's a large white space opportunity as well. So we see significant growth opportunity in all of that in a way that complements what we've been doing with plan and design and make.
The Maintenance X is the leader among what I would call the next generation of operations software companies and intelligence maintenance and asset management. And there's a number of younger companies in that space. Maintenance X is 1 of the faster growing ones, and it's 1 of the larger ones as well. So we feel it gives us good early momentum in that space.
Right. And when you think about acquisition, right, because I think you did say that MAX is the biggest player in the next-gen space. How do you think about the mind share and the market share versus acquiring the best technology, especially as we talk about AI native companies?
Yes. I don't think it's a compromise in this case. When we started out about almost a year ago, scanning the operations landscape for things that we might be interested in, we wanted to repeat the construction playbook that we had with the Cornerstone acquisition and building around it. And so when we started scanning the landscape, what we were fundamentally looking for is technology that is future-oriented, so built on a modern stack, cloud native, mobile-first ease of use that is easily adopted by customers has prebuilt integrations and things that fundamentally, it's delightful to use the software.
In addition to that, we wanted to look for an asset that complements our AI capabilities around the differentiating data and context that it could bring to us from an operations perspective. And ideally looking for a company that actually has strong go-to-market traction so that you have proven product market fit and a good strong go-to-market motion where the company is prosecuting that and driving a successful growth rate.
In Maintenance, we found all of those, and that's what pursue appealing to us.
Got it. Maybe 1 last question on the position is you announced raising $2 billion of new debt to fund the acquisition. How should we think about long-term capital allocation framework, share repurchases, further M&A from here?
Yes, we were very focused on making sure that our long-term capital allocation framework stays unchanged. Again, we spelled this out at Investor Day. We've reiterated this for investors a couple of times. Our first and foremost focus is to invest organically in the business and secondarily to invest through acquisitions. And these are targeted and tuck-in acquisitions as the expression we've used that continues to be the case here. But at the same time, that's all against the backdrop of continuing a healthy capital return program. We've said we would return approximately 50% of our free cash flow subject to acquisitions to investors. We did that last year, a little bit more than half last year. In fact, we're on track to do that again this year. And that underlying capital allocation framework will continue.
Got it. And is there any risk to the 49% margin level? -- that you're guiding to the next...
I would love to be at 49% margin levels, but we're not going to be quite there. What we committed to was 41%. By fiscal 2019. Important correction. But no, we fundamentally said that we are going to continue to stay true to that as well. So the maintenance acquisition is going to be operating margin dilutive by its nature because -- it's a high-growth company, and it's an investment mode, but we're going to absorb that dilution and our fiscal '27 and fiscal '29 operating margin goals will stay unchanged post close.
Got it. If we now turn to the recent quarter performance, on a reported basis, the numbers were quite strong. If I look at billings and free cash flow, I think you beat each of those versus Street expectations by $150 million plus each. But if we normalize it, I think you still said that there was some impact of the business model transitions that kind of mechanically bolstered some of the growth. So if we neutralize that and we just look at the normalized growth rate, how did that compare to your initial expectations for the quarter? And how is that informing your guidance for the rest of the year? Is everything on track? Are we performing better? Or where are we exactly?
The quarter played out -- it played out quite nicely for us. We are very pleased with our overall performance in the quarter. When I think about the underlying business itself, you are navigating the effects of the sales reorganization. That largely played out as we expected with respect to new subscriptions. Renewals were strong. So that gave us some strength in the quarter.
We also saw outperformance on upfront revenue, which is the license revenue component under 606. That came in a lot stronger than we expected. That's largely a function of product mix and that contributed to about half of the revenue outperformance in Q1. So we took the entire outperformance for Q1 and rolled that through and raised our guidance for the full year by more than that. So there's an implied raise for Q2 to Q4 as well. So all of that reflects the strength that we saw in the business that upfront revenue is not necessarily something I would extrapolate to future periods. But the underlying strength of the business is what we extrapolated to the future periods. And that's what you see reflected in the guidance for Q2 to Q4. So overall, it played out quite nicely.
Right. I'm going to ask you a conceptual question on probably a little bit crude, but bear with me. you talked about kind of your core beginnings being in more of the design and plan area. Right now, if I were to go into a Chat GPT or a Gemini or something, I can ask it create me a 2D schematic, a 3D schematic of a door window. And we'll do it maybe not super accurately, but it will create me something. We may not be in an area right now where these frontier models can handle something like that. And the difference between me asking for a door and someone asking create me this commercial building is way different. But is there any conceptual risk that the Frontier models can disrupt and maybe be like more CAD side area of the business?
Let me answer the question this way. If there's 100 people that gave the model, the exact same instructions that you give the model, you'd get 100 different answers. That doesn't work in our world, right? You need highly deterministic outcomes in our world. These are things that need millimeter level precision and that people are standing behind and taking large liability risks behind. So probabilistic is good to get you started and to get you thinking about things, but ultimately, probabilistic is not good enough. You actually need deterministic -- and as long as these models are all based on probabilistic methodologies, I think that continues to be a core differentiator for us.
So we described this a little bit more on our earnings call as well for some of you that may not have seen that. But what we described was our approach, we've talked about data and context and expertise as being the core differentiators, but it's not just the outcomes from our foundation models. We've trained our models on real-world data from real projects from actual customer projects that we've worked on, literally thousands of them over the years. And -- but it's not just about using the output directly from a model. That actually is then matched up against the deterministic algorithms that we've got that are built into the software, and that's been a core differentiator for because many of our flagship products like AutoCAD and Revit over the years. And so you get much more deterministic outcomes. I think that is a key differentiator as well.
The second thing I would say is many of the models would lack the context. For example, if you said, hey, just render me that's drawing it would render you are drawing, but what's behind the wall -- what is it actually made of? What's the load-bearing capacity? What can't you see? What's the drainage system. If you move a door 6 feet from 1 side to the other, does it conflict with the MEP system, all of those things are things that the model doesn't really have context on. It doesn't have context on workflow what's buildable, what's actually auditable. Tomer made a change 3 days ago and Janesh's going out to the site to build something, does he actually have the latest or is he going to go do something that is going to create rework later. The models don't have that. Rattles play a very valuable role in terms of how we think about the work that our customers perform. But it's much more comprehensive than that in our view.
Right. One of your peers on their last earnings call made a reference to saying something along the lines of let's say, you have a hypothetical example, $200,000 annually in engineering labor costs and 10,000 in design software costs. Even if you were to double the design software cost, but you were able to reduce 20% of the labor cost the incremental opportunity that an Autodesk can get from that compared to the cost savings from the customers is tremendous, right? Is that something that you're seeing from customers now?
The biggest problem that our customers face today is 1 of capacity and productivity, right? They don't have enough people to do all the work that needs to be done, and the people that they have are not as productive as they could be because there's a lot of more mundane things that are required of them in their day-to-day jobs. So that's the way we think about it. It's similar in concept to what you said around where they're investing and where do the savings accrue. But fundamentally, that is the problem that our customers are trying to solve in terms of how do I make my people more productive. That is my most scarce asset, and how do I get more capacity. And that's what we help them do. We do that through features in the product that we described the framework of task automation, workflow automation and system automation.
Task automation means making the user more productive. And if we can do that in a way that doesn't cause my cog meters to spin faster and we can still measure or meter the value that we're delivering to customers by way of a seat, then great, we will factor that into how we think about subscription pricing. But to the extent it either causes my fog meters to spin faster or if a seat is no longer the best way to meter that value we're giving the customer. We do that in the form of consumption-based pricing, which we've had for many years at Autodesk. A good chunk of our portion -- of our revenue comes from consumption-based pricing. So we feel like, again, going back to where you started with business model transitions, we've built not just the technology, but the commercial capabilities that we need for this world of the future as well.
Right. Maybe to go into the consumption-based model in just a second, but just to go on the last point. So are you hearing right now customers are preferring more productivity over cost savings?
Well, productivity can be reflected financially either through cost savings or driving higher revenue. And I think customers actually want both.
Got it. So consumption-based pricing, about 17% of your business, flex within that is about 2%...
Roughly.
Roughly 2%. First of all, take us through the various pricing mechanisms you have within the consumption business. And if you were to take a future outlook now with AI and genetic really starting to grow, where do you think it goes? Is it going to be more of this token-based approach?
Yes. So Flex is about 2%, and the rest of the lion's share of it roughly 15% is from EBAs, right? So EBAs are our enterprise business agreements and those customers are all on consumptive contracts. With the customer, it's structured as a token-based arrangement commercially. For revenue purposes, the revenue is still recognized ratably. So the revenue that fluctuates with usage is only on Flex, which is only about 2% of the business today. And so fluctuations in that 2% really don't have a meaningful outcome on the total revenue of the company just given our overall size.
Over time, as we think about this, I think we see growth opportunities in -- with enterprise customers, but also with Flex, particularly as we go further down market and we continue to expand our reach with many smaller customers and different personas, including personas, of users that may not need subscriptions all the time that they may be less frequent users or they may have burst capacity needs. So we do see that those consumptive models, particularly flex continuing to become a bigger portion of the business. But just given the sheer size of Autodesk as an $8 billion-plus company and Flex being only 2%, that growth in the mix of Flex will take a long time to play out. It's just the math behind it. So we don't see that creating volatility in the revenue model anytime in the near term.
Got it. You've talked about the last few quarters about MCP and API opportunity. Really how incremental can that opportunity become? And in early conversations with customers that are a little bit more AI forward, are you seeing a preference towards utilizing the Autodesk tool directly or going through a third-party agent that then goes into the Autodesk platform?
The way we think about it is we should be exposing capabilities to customers in whichever way the customer wants to consume those capabilities. So for example, we announced the partnership with OpenAI on Fusion, that still requires a user to have access to a fusion subscription. So we're still monetizing it. It's just a different mechanism. And if somebody wants to use it through open AI or through Chat GPT, that's great. They can also use it directly in our products. If they're using it directly in our products, they actually get access to our foundation models. They get access to -- they get -- when they use the features to the extent that it doesn't require us to use expensive compute to deliver the customers' request, but it can be done in a less expensive way. We would do that behind the scenes for them in a seamless way. So there's lots of benefits for them to do both, and either of them works fine for us.
Yes. Let's go back to financials and talk about margins for a second. 93% gross margin is our guidance for this year, kind of stable from last quarter trends. You talked before about as you're going to scale out your AI and cloud compute, there could be a drag to the gross margin dollars right? When would we start seeing that? And what are you doing to offset that?
Yes. Just to clarify, we don't expressly guide to gross margin percentage. But you're right, fundamentally, as cloud continues to grow in mix, the gross margin on cloud offerings will be lower than it is on desktop offerings. And so as that mix shifts, you do see an impact on the gross margin percentage. But from a gross profit dollars perspective, those are still accretive because the revenue size will correspondingly be bigger. So it's still actually is accretive to gross profit dollars, which ultimately drives free cash flow per share, which is the path to creating value. So we still feel pretty good about that.
But in terms of the percentage of gross margin, we did factor that in into the guide that we provided. Again, I think that plays out over a long time frame. And specific to fiscal '29 and the outlook of 41% for non-GAAP margins that we have out there. That's 1 of the several levers in terms of the puts and takes, but it is embedded in that 41% outlook.
Right. So you talked a little bit about AI tools that you're monetizing on different ways to monetize. But I want to talk about monetizing on AI from the perspective that you are also participating in the data center build-outs right? So maybe can you take us through there? What parts of the build-outs do you actually participate? And isn't it the data centers themselves? Or is it the associated infrastructure around waterways and electrical grids and everything else that's attached to the data center.
It's both. As you see, as data centers need surround infrastructure, Autodesk gets naturally used in those infrastructure projects as well. But the important thing for us is over the years, we've actually built a highly diversified business across segments and geographies and industries and verticals. And so every time you see demand shift from 1 area to another, that's fine from our perspective, we see the benefits of that by way of that diversification. So construction is a good example of that.
In construction, there's 8 to 9 months of backlog. And when demand shift, shifts towards data centers. It's moving away from somewhere else or capacity is shifting towards data in terms of our end user -- our customers' capacity to build is moving towards data centers. It's moving away from somewhere else, we're there in all parts of the market. So while on the 1 hand, it's great that it's providing a level of momentum to us. We are balanced in terms of how we approach it. And if for whatever reason, it shifts away from us in the future, there will be something else that in our minds will take up the slack.
So maybe continuing along that shifting perspective, do you now have an opportunity, even if it shifts away the actual construction portion into the kind of areas that maybe have been a little bit neglected over the last couple of months last year. with make and operate, can you stay in that life cycle for longer, specifically for data centers.
The fundamental thesis behind operate as it extends our engagement to the facets from years to decades. So absolutely, I mean, we would view -- so make is really construct. And if data center builds slow down for whatever reason, I don't see them slowing down. But for whatever reason, if they do slow down, we will still -- that demand will shift elsewhere. And again, if you think about plan, build -- plan, design, build and operate, the plan, design build capacity will move somewhere else. The industry is still capacity constrained. So whatever is being built, whether it's infrastructure, whether it's commercial housing, whether it's industrial buildings, whether it's other kinds of facilities. If it moves away from data center to something else, that's great. We'll be there for our customers wherever they are.
Right. But maybe to ask you it again in a different way. do you see real headway of opportunity for operate within the data centers?
There is significant opportunity for operate that will play out over the long term.
Got it. If we look at the -- I'm sure you all know this, we compare your performance to the architectural billings indices and some of the other construction momentum indices, and we're seeing stabilization of demand there following kind of a weaker back half of last year kind of going into this year, we're seeing stabilization. How was the demand backdrop right now?
It has been pretty stable. But what I will say is that even when you were seeing softness in some of those potential leading indicators, our business continued to perform well because those are not perfect leading indicators, and there's always some level of noise. And just given the diversification we've built into our business over the years, when you're looking at any 1 leading indicator for 1 particular market or 1 particular vertical, it's not going to be reflective of our business overall. So when those indicators were softening, we didn't see our business softening. And as we see those indicators stabilizing, that's a good thing on balance. I'm not dismissing those in any event or in any way. I would rather have those be stable than be declining. But them being stable, doesn't necessarily translate into anything that is a direct read-through for our business.
Right. I think the opposite side of the equation is even if there is a little bit of macro weakness or whatnot, we've seen that you have gained share, right, in CAD and BIM or PLM or whatever you want to call it, we see that you gained share over the last year, 1 now versus kind of some of your incumbent peers. And I wanted to ask you, what is the real reason for the share gains? Is it more about you provide the full platform that customers want? Is it more about a total cost of ownership savings? Is it better flexibility or pricing model? What attracts people to come to you?
We have been growing our business faster than the market overall in many of these markets. But I'd attribute that to more -- if you think about the markets in which we are growing really fast, construction, we're still behind the market leaders. In Fusion, we're still a small part of the overall market. So a lot of it is attributable to the underlying businesses measured on a point way that are continuing to do well relative to the competitors that they have in their particular spaces. And then, of course, the mix effects of the higher-growth businesses helping the overall growth rate of the company.
Got it. As we look towards the back half of the year is kind of progressed throughout the year, you talked about the largest EBA cohort in 4Q, but I think it's offset by your multiyear cohort, right? That is in the middle, I believe, over the last few years, right? So what are the puts and takes of the multiyear product cohort and the EBA cohort?
So the EBA cohort that's up for renewal this year is our largest EBA cohort with the bulk of that happening in Q4. But if I think about that compared to last year, we had -- last year, we had our largest product subscription cohort that was renewing last year. And we also had, I think, our second largest EBA cohort. So the issue with the cohort dynamics is this always going to be something that's bigger or smaller than the other. You can see last year's dynamics, by the way, in the billings growth rate for last year. On an as-reported basis, it was north of 30% billings growth. And so even when you strip out the effects of the business model transitions and so forth, it was actually very, very strong growth last year. So it will present a naturally tough comp in Q4. But that was what we factored in overall when we set our billings guide out for the year.
And Q1 played out nicely for us, which is what gave us the confidence to raise the underlying billings growth in dollar terms as we provided our revised guidance.
Now that we lapped kind of the remaining pieces of the transition in last quarter, should we expect that free cash flow growth tracks more closely with net income growth? And what do you think about free cash flow conversion over the next few years?
Yes. I think broadly speaking, free cash flow should track much more closely to operating or net income. There's a couple of things to keep in mind in fiscal '27, though, which is this year, which is that we're not really paying any U.S. federal cash taxes we say, because of the impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and that benefit is largely offset by the cash outflows that we had associated with the restructuring that we implemented. Entering next fiscal year, fiscal 2018, we will start to become a U.S. federal cash tax payer again.
Got it. Same question about on NRR. Right now that we're past the mechanical tailwinds where do you expect the steady-state NRR levels to be within that, I think, 100%, 110% framework you gained.
Yes, they should be within that same range. It exceeded 110%, mainly because of the mechanical impacts of the new transaction model. The new transaction model affects a whole bunch of metrics, the net expansion -- the net retention rate of the NR3, as we call it, as well as a whole bunch of others. But once that noise abates, you should see it back in that 100% to 110% range.
Got it. A couple of quarters ago, you made a strategic investment in World Labs.
Yes, we're very excited about that one, too.
Is there any new update since our disclosure?
No. I think that's actually been going well for us in terms of the conversations we have with them. I think the company continues to perform well. So we're very pleased with that relationship is headed.
Got it. We're kind of 5, 6 minutes of time. I just wanted to pose open up the room and pose any questions for investors who want to ask a question.
I keep going here. Maybe to go back to the competitive landscape. When you take maybe a 5-year-plus look -- how does the market change in terms of -- I think we think of some of the other competitors that have an Operate segment that are more of the platform vendors. But as you mentioned, their legacy. Is there -- does it get more competitive, meaning are they going to also try to make some of the acquisitions of these next-gen products and then you are in a different type of competitive environment or competitive landscape than kind of how you describe it today?
Yes. I mean, potentially, but the way I think about the competitive landscape is we need to do what's best for our customers and give them the best product with the best user experience, and the best integrations to maintain an open ecosystem because what maintenance is fundamentally doing in the operations space is, it's not vendor specific or it's not system specific like some of these other folks are. It's actually a very open approach to manage as many assets as you can, regardless of who the vendors are, which the systems are. So the more we can do that, the more successful we will be. And there's plenty of new market opportunity by way of just traditional white space.
You walk into many of these facilities, you'll actually see there's things written on whiteboards with markers of what they should do by wafer maintenance schedule. There are things written on paper. You go to a complex manufacturing facility, and you'll see somebody's stuck a sticky note on a piece of equipment, saying, do not open this valve. And those are the kinds of things that scare us and should scare us. Those are the kinds of things that we're looking to automate. So if we do this right, we'll actually capture significant white space opportunity. And along the way, maybe there will be some legacy vendors from whom we can gain a little bit of share they might acquire companies. They might improve their products. Fundamentally, we look forward to a vibrant ecosystem out there, but all in service of what the customer wants to do.
And where are we in terms of market education beyond kind of all the go-to-market changes that you already made. Is there anything else you need to do in terms of getting in front of the customer that they should know that you don't only have design to make, but you also have operate in the value of the platform.
I mean I think our customers know and understand the whole life cycle and maintenance has built an independent go-to-market motion. For us, the most important thing is to continue to let them do what they've done well and take that strong product market fit and pair it with a go-to-market motion that continues to sustain growth for a period of time to come. There are a number of areas where working together with them, we can help them expand their presence, whether you think about leveraging the -- our global presence and having them be successful in markets outside of the U.S. thinking about ways in which they can work with our partner community, thinking about ways in which we can help represent the full portfolio of Autodesk and next to our enterprise customers. Thinking about just verticals in which we can help them expand even further. I think there's plenty of opportunity for white space expansion.
Right. Maybe last question here is, with May next, do you feel that you are finally participating in the full life cycle? Or is there other areas that you could eventually, at some point, go into, I think 1 of your peers recent spinoff also has a Protect category? Is that something that could be on the road map eventually?
Yes. I mean we think of this in terms of plan design, make and operate. We've -- there's a lot that we can do to make sure that we complete that. Again, I'll remind you about make we entered the make about 7 or 8 years ago. We're still driving growth even within make. So we have plenty of room with operations before we declare entrance into new markets.
Understood. Janesh, I'm all out of questions and we have 2 minutes left. So I'll see those back to you. Thank you so much.
All right. Thank you very much. We were efficient there.
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Autodesk — Bank of America 2026 Global Technology Conference
Autodesk — Bank of America 2026 Global Technology Conference
Autodesk-CFO stellt MaintainX-Übernahme ($3,6 Mrd.) als Ausdehnung in das große Operate-Marktsegment vor, betont Synergien für AI und bestätigt Margen-/Kapitalrahmen.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: MaintainX-Akquisition schafft Brücke von Plan/Design/Make zu Operate und erhöht adressierbaren Markt signifikant.
- Strategie: Fokus auf Daten, Kontext und Expertise zur Differenzierung bei AI‑Funktionen; Operate ergänzt bestehende Plattform und stärkt langfristige AI-Workflows.
- Kapital: Finanzierung teils über $2 Mrd. neue Schulden; Rückkauf-/Kapitalrückgabe-Framework bleibt bestehen (ca. 50% Free Cash Flow).
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Operate‑TAM: Management nennt Operations-Markt ~ $40 Mrd. und sieht höheren Umfang als Baugeschäft.
- Synergien: MaintainX bringt ~14.000 Kunden und 10 Mio. Assets unter Management, liefert operatives Echtwelt‑Datenkontext für bessere AI‑Modelle.
- Playbook: Gleiche Vorgehensweise wie bei Construction: größere Bolt‑ons + organisches Wachstum, ergänzt durch Autodesk‑Plattform und Partnernetzwerk.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Deal‑Größe: Kaufpreis $3,6 Mrd.; größte Übernahme in der Firmengeschichte.
- Finanzierung: $2 Mrd. neue Anleihen angekündigt; Ziel bleibt, ~50% des Free Cash Flow an Aktionäre zurückzugeben.
- Guidance‑Impact: Management sieht die Übernahme als kurzfristig margendilutiv (junges, wachsendes Unternehmen), hält aber an Non‑GAAP‑Betriebsmargen‑Ziel von ~41% bis FY29 fest.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Integrationsfokus: Wie schnell skaliert Operate? Antwort: Langfristiger Aufbau ähnlich Construction; Wachstum durch Organic + weitere Tuck‑ins.
- Kapitalallokation: Wird Schuldenaufbau Buybacks oder M&A gefährden? Antwort: Rahmen bleibt unverändert; Rückkäufe sollen fortgesetzt werden.
- AI‑Risiken: Können generative Modelle CAD ersetzen? Antwort: Autodesk betont Bedarf an deterministischen, kontextgetriebenen Ergebnissen; probabilistische Frontier‑Modelle reichen nicht aus.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bedeutung: Die MaintainX‑Akquisition erweitert Autodesks Lebenszyklus‑Angebot und stärkt Daten/AI‑Wettbewerbsvorteile; kurzfristig besteht Margendruck und höhere Verschuldung, langfristig handelt es sich um eine wachstums- und wertsteigernde strategische Ergänzung. Anleger sollten Integrationserfolge, Billings/NRR‑Entwicklung und Cloud/Gross‑Margin‑Trends genau beobachten.
Autodesk — Q1 2027 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Hello, and welcome to the Q1 Fiscal Year '27 Autodesk Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions].
Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Vice President, Investor Relations, Simon Mays-Smith.
Thanks, operator, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss Autodesk's fiscal '27 first quarter results. Andrew Anagnost, our CEO; and Janesh Moorjani, our CFO, are on the line with me.
During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, including outlook and related assumptions on products, artificial intelligence, sales and marketing optimization, go-to-market strategies, trends and pending transactions. Actual events or results could differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K and the Form 8-K filed with today's press release for important risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from those in our forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements made during the call are being made as of today. If this call is replayed or reviewed after today, the information presented during the call may not contain current or accurate information. Autodesk disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. We will quote several numerical growth changes during this call and as we discuss our financial performance. Unless otherwise noted, each such reference represents a year-on-year comparison.
All non-GAAP numbers referenced in today's call are reconciled in our press release and supplemental materials available on our Investor Relations website, where you will also find a presentation deck on the acquisition announced today.
And now I will turn the call over to Andrew.
Thank you, Simon, and welcome, everyone, to the call. We delivered strong Q1 fiscal '27 results today with revenue and earnings per share above the high end of guidance ranges and this outperformance flows through to our full year guidance. Today, we shared in a separate announcement that we have entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Maintain X, a leading modern maintenance and asset operation solutions used by organizations to manage and optimize day-to-day operations.
The acquisition reflects Autodesk's commitment to becoming a long-term leader in operations and builds upon Autodesk operations solutions, AOS, capabilities in digital twins and factor design. I'm going to devote my opening remarks to operations and will return to our other strategic initiatives after Janesh's discussion of our financial performance and guidance.
Autodesk's strategy is to converge design, make and operate data and context continuously through the full life cycle. This benefits owners, designers, builders, manufacturers and operators through increased efficiency and resilience and reduced risk and downtime. Operations is highly complementary to the design and make category, reflecting growing customer demand and more continuous data-driven workflows from concept through to operation and optimization.
With this expansion in operations, we plan to unlock higher value system-level AI, extend our duration with assets and systems from years to decades, and meaningfully expand our addressable market. Maintain X helps organizations manage maintenance, assets and frontline operations with a modern mobile-first platform with prebuilt integrations that serve as both a system of record and action for day-to-day operational workflows. It's led by a world-class engineering and AI talent and delivers a scalable go-to-market growth motion for operations and strong expansion potential across customer segments, geographies and adjacent use cases.
Its position as a key component of maintenance and operational activity gives Autodesk access to rich data on asset condition and history, inspections, maintenance patterns and real-world performance. bringing MaintainX into Autodesk begins to build the data and context loop that enables a new generation of more integrated, data-driven and AI-powered capabilities digital design and make with real-world performance to deliver predictive maintenance, intelligent automation and real-time decision support.
In short, we are excited to welcome the MaintainX team to Autodesk, and this acquisition will position us to help our customers increase efficiency and resilience and reduce risk and downtime through convergence.
Janesh, over to you to discuss our quarterly financial performance and guidance.
Thanks, Andrew. Q1 was another strong quarter. Overall, the underlying momentum of the business was consistent with prior quarters and a bit better than the assumptions we built into our guidance range with strength coming from similar industry segments in AECO, particularly in construction and emerging markets. Our sales reorganization is proceeding as planned.
The overall impact to new subscription growth was within the range of our expectations, while upfront revenue was less impacted than we expected. Renewal rates remained strong. Total revenue in the first quarter grew 18% as reported and 16% in constant currency. As expected, the new transaction model provided a tailwind of roughly 3.5 percentage points to revenue growth in the first quarter. Please see the tables in our press release, earnings deck and -- financials for details by product and region.
Billings increased 18% as reported and 15% in constant currency. The new transaction model provided a tailwind of roughly 1.5 percentage points to billings growth in the first quarter. We completed the transition to annual billings for most multiyear contracts during the quarter, -- so there will no longer be noise and billings from that transition. But with the ongoing reduction in the level of multiyear discounting, we expect shift from multiyear to annual contracts will continue to benefit price realization while also weighing on unbilled deferred revenue growth.
Turning to margins. First quarter GAAP and non-GAAP operating margins were 28% and 39%, respectively. GAAP operating margin increased approximately 14 percentage points, primarily due to the absence of onetime charges and underlying margin improvements. Non-GAAP operating margin was up approximately 2 percentage points. This primarily reflected operating leverage and the benefits from our sales optimization.
First quarter free cash flow of $876 million benefited from typical seasonal strength partly offset by cash restructuring costs. Moving on to capital allocation. We repurchased approximately 1.9 million shares during the quarter for $448 million. We continue to expect our share buyback in fiscal '27 to be similar to fiscal '26 in total dollars. We expect to maintain a healthy buyback program that continues to apply approximately 50% of free cash flow to further reduce share count over time.
Our capital allocation framework is unchanged. In addition to share repurchases, we still plan to deploy cash to the highest return opportunities, prioritizing organic investment in R&D, including cloud platform and AI and accelerating the realization of our strategy with targeted and tuck-in acquisitions. MaintainX is a good example of this and will be the cornerstone in scope and scale of our acquisition investment and operations.
Building on our successful expansion in construction, we're applying the same playbook to expand in operations. The foundation is the same, a cornerstone acquisition of an established and disruptive market leader with a strong go-to-market motion. We expect to fund the acquisition of MaintainX through a combination of cash on hand and debt financing. MaintainX expects to achieve an excess of $135 million of annualized recurring revenue this calendar year with growth in excess of 50%. We expect the transaction to close later this fiscal year, subject to regulatory approvals. We will include the impact of the acquisition and our guidance after the transaction closes.
We intend to absorb the margin dilution from MaintainX within our fiscal '27 and fiscal '29 margin goals. After close, MaintainX will be integrated into Autodesk Operation Solutions or AOS, under Steve Hooper, SVP of AOS. As many of you who have met him over the years now, Steve brings the product vision, go-to-market expertise and decades of operational experience at scale to turn AOS into our next major growth engine.
Let me finish with guidance. Our guidance philosophy is unchanged. Our guidance continues to be based on the range of possible outcomes in our bottom-up sales forecast which is grounded in the momentum of business and embeds prudent to reflect temporary risk to billings and revenue as we operationalize our sales optimization plan.
Full year guidance assumptions that we described last quarter remain largely unchanged. We assume the macroeconomic environment will remain broadly stable through the year. Billings and revenue guidance continue to reflect potential disruption from our sales restructuring, consistent with the plan we laid out in February and what we saw in the first quarter.
We continue to expect billings to be slightly more weighted to the second half in part reflecting that disruption and in part due to the weighting of our largest EBA cohort in the fourth quarter. Noise from the new transaction model will significantly diminish during the year, from an approximately 3.5 percentage point tailwind to revenue growth in Q1 to approximately 2 percentage points in Q2 and averaging out at approximately 1.5 percentage points for the full year. We will talk about it less as at noise fades.
Non-GAAP margins will continue to reflect ongoing operating leverage, savings from restructuring and sustained investments in our long-term strategic priorities. Free cash flow in fiscal '27 will continue to reflect discrete restructuring outflows and tax benefits. The net effect of these discrete cash movements is immaterial to free cash flow in fiscal '27. Our U.S. federal cash tax payments will begin to normalize in fiscal '28.
We continue to manage our stock-based compensation with discipline. We expect SBC to fall below 10% of revenue in fiscal '27 and continuing the trend of the last few years. Reflecting all this for fiscal '27, we've raised the bottom end of our prior billings guidance to a range of $8.505 billion to $8.58 billion reflecting the sustained momentum of the business. We've raised our revenue guidance to a range of $8.155 billion to $8.215 billion, reflecting our strong results in the first quarter.
Our GAAP operating margin guidance range is 26% to 28%. We've raised our non-GAAP operating margin guidance to approximately 39%, reflecting our increased revenue guidance. We've also raised the bottom end of our free cash flow guidance to a range of $2.725 billion to $2.8 billion. In summary, we remain disciplined and focused on the controllable factors that drive our revenue, operating margin, earnings per share and capital allocation, which are the key building blocks of free cash flow per share. The slide deck on our website has modeling assumptions for second quarter and full fiscal year '27. Andrew, back to you.
Thank you, Janesh. Autodesk is focused on convergence, powered by our platform, industry clouds and AI. Let me give you some examples of our progress in the quarter that demonstrate how this differentiated strategy works. For our customers and architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing and operations, convergence increases efficiency and resilience and reduces risk and downtime. All of this is in service of deploying fewer resources to every project so they can bid on and win more projects with the resources they have.
As you can see in the performance of make, former for construction's revenue growth accelerated again and has strong momentum with owners, designers, GCs and subcontractors seeking to converge design and construction workflows. Once again, customers are choosing to consolidate fragmented legacy systems on to Autodesk platform.
For example, dome construction, an ENR top 400 general contractor selected former for construction to replace disconnected legacy point solutions and standardized workflows across preconstruction, VDC, project execution, cost management and turnover. In Europe, Essex Services Group, a leading U.K. building services contractor signed a multiyear enterprise agreement performer build to consolidate fragmented systems across complex data center and commercial projects. And Germany's largest municipal water utility, Berlin Mutter expanded its use Autodesk solutions, including former design collaboration to modernize collaboration across water infrastructure planning and delivery.
These stories have a common theme, converging people, processes and data across the project life cycle to increase efficiency and resilience, decrease risk and prepare for an agentic AI world. Our comprehensive end-to-end industry cloud and platform drive convergence and extend our footprint further into the larger growth segment. In manufacturing, customers are demanding convergence as they invest in their digital transformation to leverage granular and unified data and embrace AI-driven automation capable of industry transformation.
By consolidating on our platform, customers have the flexibility and connectivity across workflows to increase agility, innovation and resilience. For example, low services the shared services of the Friedhelm Lo Group, a German industrial technology conglomerate renewed and expanded its enterprise agreement with Autodesk to better connect CAD, product data management and enterprise systems. Reducing fragmentation and accelerating time to market.
In the U.S., a leading automotive manufacturer renewed its enterprise agreement with Autodesk to advance its Factory of the Future strategy, standardizing on Autodesk solutions across digital factory and AECO workflows to reduce vehicle lead times and scale factory design simulation across 14 factories from more proactive, data-driven production planning. In addition, a visual display and fabrication company relates to legacy design solution with Fusion after a multi-month evaluation, connecting design and manufacturing in the cloud to reduce handoffs and move projects through development faster.
And in Europe, Shytle, a leading manufacturer of Chimney systems implemented an integrated venture vault and fusion workflow to automate product configuration, generating thousands of modular component variants automatically to fast track assembly and drawing creation. All of this was reflected in Fusion's accelerating growth.
Let me finish by talking about AI. As I said last quarter, building a genic AI requires data, context and expertise. What differentiates Autodesk is that we have all 3 at scale, and each one is scarce. We have GM rich data from real time and make workflows that lets us build frontier 3D foundation models grounded in how the built world is actually designed and made. We have real-world workflow context, including design intent, constraints, constructability, coordination and trade-offs that enable industry-specific MCP and agentic-based workflows that work reliably across the life cycle. And we have deep domain and technical expertise that translates data in context into trusted products, defensible IP and knowledge graphs built for professional grade outcomes. That foundation matters because our customers do not just need AI that can generate. They need AI to produce these outputs that are correct in the real world.
That is a hard problem, and we are using a hybrid approach to solve it. We are combining probabilistic AI generation with deterministic engineering validation using parametric and physical-based engines designed to reason about the physical world in 3D. So AI generated outcomes can be validated against real-world constraints. Simply put, AI can generate and our engines can validate. Let me unpack that a bit. Fronter models are incredibly capable, but they are still fundamentally vision and language systems, simply generating drawings is very different from understanding how something performs, behaves or can actually be manufactured and constructed. For our customers that accuracy matters.
Through assistance and MCP infrastructure, Autodesk provides the harness layer that makes frontier models more controllable, context aware and useful across the life cycle. Artist assistant is a good example already in market, and there are even more powerful tools on the way.
But we are going much further than MCP and agent-based workflows. Autodesk 3D Foundation models use decades of engineering intelligence combined with trusted product engines to directly reason about geometry and physical relationships, enabling workflows like similarity search, drawing dimensions, constraints, building plans and geometry aware automation. Auto constrained infusion and more expansive features like our soon-to-be launched building layout Explorer Informa are good examples of our progress here.
When Autodesk AI generates a design revision, manufacturing tool path, routing layout or simulation setup, that output is validated to the same core parametric models from Autodesk that our customers have trusted for decades. These systems perform deterministic checks for geometric integrity, manufacturability, constructability, standards compliance and performance. Every validation loop also improves the platform itself, continuously strengthening our AI models, validation systems and quality thresholds over time.
With MaintainX, we intend to extend those capabilities to develop digital twins that move beyond descriptive and informative models to high-value predictive and autonomous workflows and systems. This combination of probabilistic AI generation and deterministic engineering validation is why we said last quarter that 3D agentic-AI requires high fidelity, geometry rich data deep industry context embedded in real-world design and make processes and specialized 3D AI expertise. Few companies have all these, Autodesk does. It's why we believe Autodesk will define the next generation of industrial AI.
Operator, we would now like to open the call up for questions.
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Saket Kalia with Barclays.
2. Question Answer
Okay. Great. And congrats on MaintainX. Andrew, maybe that's a good place to start with you. Broadly speaking, could you just give us a bit more color on Maintain as a company and how it maybe helps further Autodesk's sort of strategic goals long term?
Yes. I think that's an excellent place to start, Saket. So let's start with the broader strategic context. In Autodesk, our goal is to converge the entire built-World life cycle from design, make, all the way through operating close that loop. You've already seen us make a lot of great progress in the design and make side of this. You've seen what we've done in manufacturing and construction.
Now we're moving more aggressively into operations. And this is going to unlock a deeper and broader data and context layer that makes our capabilities more powerful in the agentic world. It's going to unlock a $40 billion TAM for us. And it's also going to advance our digital twin strategy from static to dynamic and ultimately to predictive.
And let me tell you a little bit about the scope of our ambition and then how MaintainX plays into it. Our scope spans all the way from product manufacturing through to critical infrastructure like water and data centers through transportation, which is like airports into commercial buildings. And if you just look narrowly at the product manufacturing piece, today, we can build static twins with tandem, dynamic twin capabilities that help define how a factory works with Plex IM and ultimately look at the operations with fusion operations.
But what MaintainX brings us is the field execution and data piece, the actual asset data piece. They're the fastest-growing company in the space, they're rapidly consolidating a lot of the space onto their platform, and there's a reason for that. And what they're bringing to us is not only that expertise at the point of work where the assets are functioning, they're bringing to us a rich set of data about asset performance in the real world. This data is going to help us move along that spectrum from static to dynamic to predictive. And midsized and small manufacturers are going to be a big place where we're going to be testing this out. So it's an exciting growth opportunity and it has a lot of potential for Autodesk, and it kind of completes that whole vision of design, make, operate and closing that loop in that data and context layer.
That makes a ton of sense. Maybe for my follow-up, Janesh, I think you compared Autodesk's entrants into operations to your entrants into construction, which a lot of us on the call remember years ago, maybe the question is, how has that experience in construction maybe informed this expansion into our operations. Does that make sense?
Yes, it does. And maybe I'll ask Andrew to comment a little bit on the learnings from the construction experience a lot of that happened even before I arrived and then I can talk a little bit about how we translate that over to MaintainX.
Yes. All right. Thank you, Janesh. It's good -- it's another good question, Saket. Let me kind of start with this. When we started construction, we took a set of assets that we had in preconstruction planning and in collaboration with 3D models in the cloud and some early assets we had around punch list and field assets. And then we put a-brought in an experienced leader at Autodesk who knew how to scale a new business. Jim Lynch, in particular, he scaled the Revit business inside of Autodesk and was a critical part of that growth. We brought in people like Paul Bandini that were also part of that.
And then what we did is we engaged in a series of acquisitions that expanded us into places where we didn't have coverage. Field execution was a key area in that space. Look at what we're doing with MaintainX, its field execution, field data, where things are happening on the site. This enabled us to do a lot of automation and capabilities around request for information flows and all the things associated with construction.
We then went on to expand that and consolidate it into a group. We ran it independently inside the company. Look at the results, all right? 5 years ago, we spent about $1.8 billion on acquisitions. Today, if you look at this business today, going back 12 months, it's worth almost $600 million in revenue, and it's growing north of 20%. So pretty impressive results.
So how does this translate into what we're doing with operations? I think we can actually do a lot more in operations. Today, we're putting an experienced leader that scaled Fusion and it's early days. That's Steven Hooper. We're bringing back Paul Bandini into the operations team. He has a lot of the chops from that. We're bringing in a best-in-class field execution on-site maintenance and asset aware solution into our portfolio, maintain a great team that knows how to build this kind of technology, a great team that's already built AI-driven workflows based on some of that data. And then we're going to work to incrementally bring in some smaller acquisitions over time that round out the solution.
So follow the same playbook integrate the things that we need to integrate quickly, hold bathing the things that drive the health of the business, run the same playbook, and I think we're going to have even more impressive results than what you've seen with construction.
Our next question comes from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer with Griffin Securities.
Andrew, among the critical technical ingredients of your growth strategy are, of course, platform services plus the AEC data model and the manufacturing data model. The question is, could you talk about production deployments of any or all of those among your customers in AEC and manufacturing and a proposed today's news, how do you see the MaintainX acquisition fitting technically into those architectural initiatives around data models. Then I'll ask my follow-up.
Yes. So as you know, the usage of our APIs and the AEC data model and the manufacturing data model by our customers continues to go up month after month after month. They're using it to provide rail solutions. We're actually monetizing some of that API usage today. We continue to create granular solutions of our -- for our data and granular capabilities.
All of these are tools that our customers will be able to plug into, but that we also plug into to create some of the agent workflows that we're doing for our customers. So it's really important to look at the progress we're doing there. When you look at MaintainX it brings another piece of granular data, asset performance data into the cycle. This is actually going to be valuable for some of our customers to actually build new businesses on from our stack.
So our goal is -- our customers should be doing more projects, bidding on more projects, winning more projects and getting a larger slice of the life cycle of the built world. This is another way we enable this. Our customers are going to be able to expand their offerings their customers through some of the new types of granular data we'll be able to offer through the asset layer as well. So it's another way of rounding things out, not only for our customers but for us as well. So it's going to be pretty exciting.
Okay. Another technology question. As you're aware, there was a very interesting AEC industry conference 2 weeks ago in London, which had many things relevant to the company, one of which I thought was quite interesting was the theme among many customers that presented of developing their own tools to either supplement commercially available tools potentially even just use their own tools for their design and engineering. Could you talk about that potential phenomenon of customers developing at least in AEC, some of the own homegrown tools.
We absolutely wanting to do this, Jay. We have a long history of enabling our customers to expand our offerings to build tools that fit for their solutions. Now when you look at the agentic world, Remember, though, that there's this important critical mass around data and context that extends beyond any single customer.
No single customer is going to have enough data to fully understand the scope and impact of a project nor will they have the entire context of the project. Remember, context for a project flows across companies and across silos within a particular project, it is an ecosystem problem. And we're well positioned to orchestrate the ecosystem at the data and context layer.
So we're going to add a lot of model capability that is really above and beyond what any of our customers can build on their own, but we encourage them and we want to enable them to build vertical capabilities on top of this that make their environments and their practices even more rich and more powerful. But they're going to need a strong platform to do that, and that strong platform is going to be built on the data content and expertise that we bring to play.
Our next question comes from the line of Adam Borg with Stifel.
Awesome. Maybe Andrew, for you, in our channel check conversations, we did hear about partners talking about a degree of disruption from the go-to-market changes you guys made? I know you talked about those changes really being in line with expectations. So I was hoping maybe you could go a step deeper about how those changes have played out and any future risk of further disruptions and how that's -- and maybe for Janesh to remind us how that's -- in the guide.
Yes. So remember, let's talk about the goals of these changes, right? The goal is to focus the entire ecosystem on new business generation, capturing and growing new businesses. So we shifted away from renewal is a big part of the partner business to new businesses as an emerging bigger part of the partners business. And we also moved to automating some of the processes around renewal so that we could get better renewal performance and more focus on the new business.
Actually, we saw that in the quarter. We saw strong renewal performance. And we saw exactly the kind of weak new performance we expected as people shift over to this. We expect this to all work its way out over time as the channel partners kind of get their hands around how their teams are reconfigured to build out new business. And we're looking forward to seeing the results. Janesh, do you want to comment on anything?
Yes. I'll just add that Q1 played out in line with the assumptions that we had baked into the guidance for the new subscriptions that we saw strength everywhere else that contributed to the strong outperformance that we had here in the quarter. And then looking ahead, we have assumed just the gradual normalization, not a step function improvement looking out to Q2 to Q4.
Ultimately, the objective is to emerge with an organization that is much more effective at driving new business growth over the long term, and that sets us up nicely for the future.
That's great. And maybe just as a quick follow-up. It's really nice to see the consistent year-on-year growth by geography in Americas and in APAC, all sticking to 17%. Maybe just drilling deeper into EMEA, just given a lot of noise in that market more broadly. Anything to call out there in terms of headwinds and opportunities.
Yes. I think the biggest drivers for EMEA were really some of the timing and comparison dynamics that you see. EMEA had strong upfront revenue last quarter, and last quarter was also the peak of the new transaction model tailwind in EMEA. And if you recall, EMEA lagged the Americas by 1 quarter. So that's what you're really seeing play out here in the numbers -- the other thing I would just touch on also is that we knew going into the year that the sales reorganization would just take longer to operationalize in certain parts of EMEA just given local labor laws and consultation requirements. And that timing was contemplated in the guidance, but you also see that reflected in the EMEA performance overall. But broadly, EMEA is a very important region for us, and we continue to see great long-term opportunity across both mature and emerging markets there.
Our next question comes from the line of Brent Dill with Jefferies.
Just on the acquisition, if you kind of roll forward the 50% growth, you're paying 18x next year's revenue. And I think many are asking in a world where software multiples have collapsed pretty significantly. You're paying a pretty big premium. And I'm assuming there's a reason for that premium. So maybe if you could share your thoughts on how you got to the number.
Yes. I'm happy to start and maybe Andrew can add as well. But when we look at maintenance, Brent, for us, we looked at it as a high-growth market-leading platform. It's really defining the next generation of operations software. It's a large strategic adjacency for us, so it expands our TAM. But importantly, beyond the stand-alone strength of the business, it also gives us very rich operational data and workflow context that really allows us to close the entire loop across design, make and operate, and it strengthens our overall AI foundation as a combined company. So it really enables higher value workflows over time.
We talked a little bit earlier about the construction playbook that we used and Andrew mentioned these numbers. But in construction, we deployed about $1.8 billion of capital through acquisitions, and we've built a business that's close to $600 million of revenue LCM, and that's growing more than 20% here in Q1. So if you sort of think of that in a similar analogy, we expect operations to become an even bigger business than construction over time. just given the TAM and given the growth rate of the business, the revenue multiple will compress pretty quickly on a forward basis as the business scales.
Yes. I think Janesh said it pretty good. I'll just add on and double down on this notion of the fact that the data that we're getting about asset performance and asset life cycles is incredibly valuable to us. it allows us to move up the spectrum from the operational and the static and dynamic wins into the predictive world. That's going to provide a lot of value to the mid-market customers we serve. It's going to provide high-value AI-driven solutions that do things that most small and midsized players are not able to do without some of these tools. So look for us to really dig deeply into that layer of this asset because it's a very important component of it for our context and data strategy.
And just a quick clarification. Is this the largest deal you've ever done?
This is the largest deal we've ever done.
Our next question comes from the line of Jason Celino with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
I'm just trying to understand the MaintainX business a little bit better. Like who would be the core user? Would it be internal operations, maintenance people. And then I went on the website, it looks like some reference customers or some consumer companies, some inventorial service companies. So do you have any overlapping customers today?
Yes. We absolutely have overlapping customers in the manufacturing sectors and machine operating sectors that do overlap with us. The core user is the person actually owning the asset who has a high concern about uptime and managing and maintaining that uptime. It allows them to get the MaintainX people out into the facility, track what needs to be fixed, track how it needs to be fixed. And the value we're going to bring moving forward is we're going to be able to turn that into a predictive cycle and a closed loop into being able to allow them to optimize facilities.
I think the greatest example you can use here is what happens in a small and midsized factory where they're trying to highly automate their processes and try to create a digital twin of the operational capabilities of their factory and reconfigure that -- basis and keeping it running as much as they possibly can. That's going to be a big opportunity for us with regards to the predictive twin capability.
Okay. And then maybe just a clarification for Janesh. I think in the prepared remarks of the PowerPoint, you mentioned that you were maintaining the fiscal '29 operating margin framework. -- did that original framework contemplate a strategic acquisition like this? And I guess, how would you look to absorb and maintain margin framework with this asset and potential future tuck-ins.
Yes, Jason, it's a great question. When we laid out that framework, we had assumed that we could achieve that objective under a range of different kinds of scenarios, which included potential acquisitions as well. Ultimately, the business is generating a healthy amount of operating leverage. And we use that operating leverage to both achieve margin goals as well as reinvest back in the business. to drive sustainable and durable growth in the future. Some of that can be organic. Some of that can be inorganic, and that's what you've seen us do over here today. While MaintainX itself does not have the margin profile that Autodesk does. We are going to absorb that business into Autodesk and stay true to our margin goals, while continuing to balance investments that we need to make in the business as well.
And our next question comes from the line of Taylor McGinnis with UBS.
Janesh, if I ran my math right, it looks like the guide for adjusted constant currency billings implies around high single digits growth for the remainder of the year. And I think revenue growth is closer to 10% or so. So could you just unpack the delta there was there any pull-forward of deals into 1Q? Or is that just a reflection of the impact from some of the sales changes?
And then secondly, enough to throw too many questions at you, but I believe you made a comment about a benefit price realization to billings, but that also weighing on unbilled deferred revenue growth. So I'm wondering if you could just pack that -- unpack that a little bit more specifically with RPO growth of 9%.
Yes. I'm happy to touch on both of those, Taylor. So in terms of the overall growth profile for both billings and revenue, Keep in mind, it's really the effect of the sales reorg that we had, where you'll see the effects show up in billings first and then you see the effects show up in revenue over time. So that's one piece that you need to just keep in mind.
And our guidance largely reflects that in terms of the pace of normalization of new business productivity coming back into the sales as we go -- sales team as we go through the reorganization and complete the operationalization of that. That's probably the biggest piece to think about with respect to the guidance.
And then in terms of the RPO and the price realization, RPO can move around in any period. It is affected by a number of things, including contract durations, timing, currency. And in our case, as you know, it's also affected by the impact of the new transaction model, which is now starting to wear off.
And so in Q1, what we saw was RPO growth was a bit slower in part, reflecting slightly shorter contract durations. That follows the change that we had been making to reduce discounting on multiyear contracts. So when you -- that represents a really good economic trade-off for us because the price realization is longer term over multiyears, when we go out and secure the renewals in the future, those will be at the undiscounted levels or the lower discounted levels compared to what we had in the past. So that's a longer-term play. But it does impact the RPO and the -- particularly the unbilled deferred RPO in the near term. But it is a good economic trade-off for us and 1 that we consciously made. So customer relationships are healthy, and we have a strong foundation of renewal rates. So we feel pretty good about the underlying momentum of the business.
Our next question comes from the line of Alexei Gogolev with JPMorgan.
Janesh, could I build on the previous question, please? So when customers consider their contracts, what drives the decision between multiyear and annual contracts? Is there any element of budget uncertainty or some perceived switching flexibility or maybe cloud and we have road maps? And does it differ by AECO or manufacturing or maybe by enterprises versus SMB?
Yes, it's a great question, Alex. It's less about budgets or anything of that sort. For us, I think it's really just a couple of issues. One that I just touched on, which is that we reduced some of the discounting on multiyear contracts because we have such a strong foundation on strong renewal rates, and we felt confident that it was the right thing to do for the business long term.
And the second thing that I'll call out is that there can be sort of timing issues and cohort mix issues as well. As tend to be 3-year contracts. A lot of our product subscriptions tend to be 1-year contracts. And so just depending on some of the mix of what's up for renewal and what's not up for renewal, you can see some level of fluctuation there too. But that's all just normal and part of the ongoing business. So there was nothing unique or specific that I would call out other than those factors here in Q1.
Okay. And Andrew, you referenced assistance and MCP infrastructure and the harness layer for frontier models, what's the near-term product road map, where it shows up first and what customers can do that they couldn't do before?
Yes. So there's numerous things that we built into the assistant layer that customers are going to be able to do, they have done before. Coming up very shortly is what's called the building layout explorer. It's going to be built into the former building design suite. It allows people to explore the layout of a building within the framework of the envelope for the building that they're proposing and that they're exploring. These are the kind of capabilities that are built off of models that we've created ourselves that allow customers to do things that they would not be able to do dynamically with some of the other kind of horizontal large language model tools.
We're also going to be building in additional capabilities that bring in some of our vertical tools into the assisted workflow so that they can actually dynamically create some user interfaces that solve particular problems for them. Again, going to be unique to the assistant. I don't want to say too much because we're going to have a lot of announcements at AU that kind of tell people where we're going. But you're going to see us add a lot more to the layer between the frontier models and what the assistant does and some of the capabilities that Autodesk builds on top.
Our next question comes from the line of Joe Vruwink with Baird.
Great. Does something like Claude for creative work and Autodesk involvement become a channel for new customer user acquisition to the point where you'd actually see new subscriber and seat growth accelerate? Or maybe if it's not clouded for creative work, but more holistically about what you're doing with MCP servers? Does this become a format where just the usability around your models make the applications more applicable to like people that wouldn't naturally be key users of Autodesk?
Whenever you meet the customers where you're at, you bring new customers into the ecosystem, right? And part of what we're doing is to meet the customers where they're at. We pull them into the ecosystem and then they're able to explore the capabilities that we're able to help them finish above and beyond what they do in some of these other layers. So you'll -- this is absolutely a channel for us, but it's also meeting the customers where they're at today.
Okay. And then on MaintainX, moving downstream in operations and connecting the asset life cycle, there's other vendors that have also put these pieces together. I think there's maybe been a range of successes and maybe the pieces end up functioning separately, but there's just not good cross-pollination and kind of upstream design ends up working, but it doesn't connect downstream, how does auditors maybe think about tackling this proposition differently than it's been tackled before?
Certainly, we're aware of all those other expirations in this space. One of the things I want to make sure that you understand here is it's not just about the maintenance piece and what we're acquiring today. It's about the whole experience around how a digital twin actually operates for our customers in their real-world settings. So we're actually building out capabilities that circles a whole bunch of the problem. And I gave some of those examples in the factory space.
But also when you look at some of these other solutions and why MaintainX is managed to grow so fast, A lot of these older solutions required custom solutions, they were dependent on other platforms like Salesforce, for instance. And they were narrowly focused on an ecosystem of vendors that were supported by the particular player.
MaintainX is a complete heterogeneous solution. Every asset that the customer has to manage can be managed within an environment like maintenance, which I think is a very important differentiator as they move here. But you combine that also with what we're trying to do with the end-to-end where you're defining the twin, you're running things in the twin and you're moving into optimizing and predictive workflows, it's something that other vendors have not done and have not been able to do successfully. And again, the reason MaintainX has been successful as it is in consolidating the space is because they crack the code on how to drive some of these solutions in and out of scale.
I just add there is you can see the evidence of these differentiators that Andrew talked about and the growth profile of MaintainX compared to the growth profile of some of those other companies.
Your next question comes from the line of Ken Wong with Oppenheimer.
Fantastic. The first one for you, Janesh, I just wanted to kind of clarify the billings guide constant currency billings growth was raised a bit at the low end, but the constant currency adjusted for transaction model was unchanged. Is that just rounding error and the underlying confidence of billings is higher? Or are you trying to say it's neutral.
Yes. I think that's just largely rounding. Because we guided in whole percentages. We focused on the total dollars of billings. We didn't see any big shift in terms of the impact of the new transaction model. I think that's just largely rounding right there.
Got it. And then Andrew, just on the go-to-market changes, it sounds like kind of within the range of outcomes. Would you say it's just kind of a typical learning curve stop? Or I remember last year, there was maybe some invoicing and billing dynamics that you guys had to iron out those kinks, like are there any notable items that you guys feel you need to course correct?
No, nothing we didn't plan for in the cycle. When you move sales incentives around and move sales rolls around, you're obviously going to go through a cycle of absorbing those changes and absorbing those things into your pipeline, you're going to go through some pipeline disruption and all the things associated with that. These are things we factored in. So we're not seeing anything we didn't expect like we discussed during the new transaction model change. It's all kinds of things we baked into the cycle and into the change management.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Turrin with Wells Fargo.
Great. Appreciate you taking the question. as you're obviously well aware, the company has worked through a fairly notable and impressive transformation over the past few years. Maybe just a 2-part question for me. You could just provide us with kind of a grounding update on where the company stands in terms of technology replatforming and evolution of the pricing model and how that positions the company competitively from your perspective? And then as the follow-on, just maybe also speak to confidence in layering MaintainX into that, just confidence in the foundation you've set as this being the right point to kind of bring something new into the fold there.
Yes, Michael, that's a really relevant question. So as you know, we've made a lot of investments in kind of changing the company and preparing it for the future at various levels. One of the things we've also did very early on is we prepared for a mixed blended world of subscription and consumption. It's one of the things I think we're well ahead of a lot of other companies in the application space. So we already have offerings that allow us to provide subscriptions for people that are heavy users blended consumption models like Flex for people that are occasional users. And we also have ways and means of which to blend these things together. We have capacity models, project-based pricing model.
So we have a lot of various models that allow us to meet the customer at the project level and also meet them at the usage of AI in ways that maybe other players in the space don't, which I think is really important, and we built the systems and processes up around that. We've also built the systems and processes that will allow us to bring in acquisitions and integrate them into our processes more effectively.
Now MaintainX is a subscription model, and they're moving into the consumption space moving forward. So they are a natural fit for some of the capabilities that we already have. So we feel pretty very confident about how we can integrate them and move them into our processes. But we're -- we've come quite a way up in the maturity curve, and we feel pretty good about where we are with regards to being ready for the new world in terms of some of the pricing models and the packaging models that are associated with that.
Our next question comes from the line of Josh Wood Hilton with Wolfe Research.
Perfect. Amazing. But I would pause there for a second. Maybe just 2 quick ones for me. First one is just something we noticed is there was a rebranding or repackaging of Autodesk built on the eStore to form a build. And along with that, it feels like the pricing of that offering is I don't know, significantly the right word, but mid-teens cheaper than it was previously. Is there any change in the strategy that you guys are seeing in construction around how you're using price as a lever to entice customers, especially since the offering itself is pretty good. And then I have a follow-up for that.
Yes. So you're actually involving 2 things there, Michael. So let me, I mean, Joshua, sorry, let me help me with that a little bit. So the rebranding of everything under Forma is to acknowledge that we have an end-to-end solution that's entirely cloud-native from design preconstruction planning all the way into construction. So everything is branded under the former layer. So former for construction is now connected to directly through a form of data management to former site design and form of building design.
The offering you're talking about is form a build Essentials. Build Essentials is a version of build design to reach the small and midsized general contractors, so it's an effort to expand our footprint down market at a price point and a capability point that works. So it's essentially a smaller version of RDF build that fits for the people who are participating in the project more broadly. That's what that price point is.
It's basically going to expand our footprint and our reach into the entire ecosystem. And it's designed to actually accelerate some of our expansion into other parts of the construction process.
Makes a lot of sense. Maybe just 1 more, and I'm going to preface this with we have a ton of print I've been bouncing around on calls. That's been addressed already, I apologize. But if I step back, you guys just put out a really solid quarter. I don't think I've gotten anybody really ticking at the results themselves. But then we also have this deal that you're announcing coming into the fold and it's pretty sizable. And I think if there's one piece of feedback that I've been getting since results dropped, it's just elsewhere in our coverage or in our software space where companies have tried to layer in some pretty sizable M&A recently. -- it's been for -- it hasn't exactly gone well. Is there anything that you can maybe give us or communicate to us that can increase the confidence that now is the right time to make this acquisition that the core business is still healthy and nothing has changed there? And that like -- and that this is the right time to be making a deal of this size, if that makes sense.
So we're a very disciplined company when it comes to acquisitions. And I want to go back to what we did with construction because, again, we're running a very similar playbook that we do with construction. And frankly, over a 5-year period, a lot of the pricing dynamics and all the operating dynamics are actually very similar when you adjust for the 5-year difference in time frame. So we're super disciplined about these things. We do work like this when we know we can absorb it and we know we can execute on it.
The timing is right because this is the time when you want to expand the breadth and depth of your data and context layer across entire life cycle. The broader and deeper your context and data layer, the more competitive you are in the future agent or because the more workflows, you can automate, the more value you can bring to your customers. So the timing is right for us, super disciplined about processes like this, and we've been waiting to do this and plan to do this for quite some time. Janesh, anything to add?
The only thing I would add in terms of thinking about this versus the broader Autodesk businesses, keep in mind that at the time of close, MaintainX will still be a very small percentage of Autodesk overall. So it's not going to be enough to influence the overall core business growth rates in a meaningful way in the initial stages. And then just to help you understand how the maintenance business is performing. We will give you appropriate information to understand that. So in the early quarters, we'll give you good information on that, so you can understand how it's contributing to Autodesk.
But just given how small it is as a percentage overall, I would not assume a permanent stand-alone quarterly reporting framework on it, but we will certainly be transparent in the early quarters as we bring it into the company.
And our next question comes from the line of Tyler Radke with Citi.
Okay. Great. Andrew, I'm curious if you talk with your big EBA customers, what is sort of their appetite to allow Autodesk to use their data in terms of AI? And how is -- how have those conversations evolve, particularly considering the exciting road map and all the innovation you're doing?
Yes. Our relationship with our customers is 1 of transparency and choice. We are very transparent about what we're doing with their data and how we're using it and where we're using it and where we're going to give them choice for opting out of how we use their data. That relationship has been highly effective. It's resulted in robust conversations with a lot of customers, and I think it's in good outcomes for them and for us.
Everybody wants the automations we're able to deliver. A lot of customers realize that they can't deliver some of the things that they really need at the scale that they're at. So as long as we continue to lean into transparency, be very straightforward with our customers and direct about what we're doing and what we're not doing and offering some level of choice. We've been having a very productive relationship with all of these customers and really good discussions.
Our next question comes from the line of Clark Wright with Piper Sandler.
I wanted to follow up on the discussion about MaintainX kind of graduating from subscription to subscription plus consumption. Maybe you could review for us what that might look like for that business model? How far along are they? Is it meaningfully contributing to the growth rate? And then a follow-up, just a lot of Autodesk's focus has been on the AEC segment and the Manufacturing segment. I think there's really an opportunity with MaintainX to expand to a lot more owner-operator presence.
And so after spanning from manufacturing to a lot of those other industries that you mentioned in terms of critical infrastructure or commercial real estate, do you see a investments in go-to-market that will happen to make this asset extend into some of those other verticals, beef up the sales force to kind of grow owner-operator presence?
Yes. First off, it's far too early to look at MaintainX to the lens of consumption and things associated with consumption. They're very early in that journey. They've got a bunch of AI-driven capabilities. That will evolve over time. Now with regards to the larger question about branching out to those other segments, again, following very much what we did in construction, we built an entire go-to-market machinery around construction that allowed us to reach various players within the construction ecosystem.
That's why we pulled it out separately and that's why we engage the way we do to make these businesses successful, is that we want to make sure we're building the ecosystem, not just the product ecosystem, but the go-to-market ecosystem that allows us to reach the various customers. You heard us kind of talk pretty vocally about the first pillar being probably in the product manufacturing space. But remember, we already have a footprint in were operations, and we already have a footprint in building operations as well.
Our desire is absolutely to get deeper into the owner-operator workflow because we feel that converging them and bringing them in closer to the higher process is going to be valuable to us valuable to them and valuable to the rest of our customers in our ecosystem.
Thank you. That is all the time we have for Q&A today. I would like to hand the call back over to Vice President, Investor Relations, Simon Mays-Smith for any closing remarks.
Thank you, Andrew, and good to speak to everyone. We'll look forward to chatting to many of you on the road over the coming weeks. If you have follow-up questions, please ping me or my team, and we'll look forward to chatting on our next quarter's earnings. Thanks very much. Goodbye.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This does conclude today's program, and you may now disconnect.
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Autodesk — Q1 2027 Earnings Call
Autodesk — Q1 2027 Earnings Call
Starkes Q1 mit erhöhter Jahres‑Guidance und strategischer Übernahme (MaintainX) zur Erweiterung in Betriebs‑ und AI‑gestützte Digital‑Twin‑Funktionen.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: +18% as reported / +16% in konstanter Währung; Q1 über dem oberen Ende der Guidance.
- Billings: +18% as reported / +15% CC; Übergangsmodell gab in Q1 ~3.5 Prozentpunkte Tailwind.
- Margen: GAAP-Operativmarge 28%, Non‑GAAP‑Operativmarge 39% (Non‑GAAP ↑ ≈2pp).
- Free Cashflow: $876M in Q1; Buybacks: 1,9 Mio. Aktien für $448M; Buyback‑Plan ähnlich FY26 (≈50% FCF für Rückkäufe).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Strategie: Ziel ist die Konvergenz von Design–Make–Operate über Lebenszyklusdaten, um höhere Wert‑AI (system‑level) und Digital‑Twins zu ermöglichen.
- MaintainX‑Akquise: Kauf soll Field‑Execution/Asset‑Daten liefern, AOS (Autodesk Operation Solutions) stärken und TAM um Operations‑Segment erweitern.
- AI‑Ansatz: Hybridmodell: probabilistische Frontier‑Modelle plus deterministische, parametrische Ingenieursprüfungen zur validierbaren, realwelt‑tauglichen Generierung.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Erhöhte Guidance: Revenue FY27 nun $8,155–8,215 Mrd.; Billings FY27 $8,505–8,580 Mrd. (Unteres Ende angehoben).
- Margen & FCF: GAAP‑Operativmarge 26–28%; Non‑GAAP ≈39%; FCF FY27 $2,725–2,800 Mrd. (unteres Ende angehoben).
- Risiken: Sales‑Reorganisation kann kurzfristig Billings belasten; MaintainX‑Close noch regulatorisch; erwartete Margin‑Dilution soll in FY27–FY29 absorbiert werden.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- MaintainX‑Details: MaintainX erwartet >$135M ARR dieses Jahr, Wachstum >50%; Autodesk nennt strategischen Wert der Asset‑Daten für Predictive‑Twins.
- Preis/Multiple: Kritik an ~18x Umsatz‑Multiple beantwortet mit strategischem Daten‑/AI‑Upside und Vergleich zur Construction‑M&A‑Playbook‑Rendite.
- GTM‑Reorganisation: Kanal‑Umstellung verursacht erwartete kurzfristige Schwäche bei New‑Business; Management bleibt bei abgestufter Normalisierung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Solides Quartal mit Guidance‑Anhebungen und aktiver Kapitalpolitik; MaintainX ist eine bewusst strategische, datengetriebene Ergänzung zur Stärkung von Operations‑Use‑Cases und AI‑Fähigkeiten. Kurzfristig bleiben Integrations‑ und Sales‑Reorg‑Risiken zu überwachen, langfristig verbessert die Transaktion Autodesks Position im wachstumsstarken Operations‑TAM.
Autodesk — Morgan Stanley Technology
1. Question Answer
All right. Let's get started.
Thank you, everyone, for joining us. My name is Keith Weiss. I am filling in for Elizabeth Porter, who just had a beautiful baby girl. But actually really excited to be talking with Autodesk, speaking with Janesh Moorjani, CFO of Autodesk. Before Elizabeth took over, I covered Autodesk for a long time, and it's always been one of my favorite companies.
Mine too.
Excellent. A long, long time ago, I came out of college as an idealistic young man, wanted to be an architect. So I've always been pining to be back in this field. And now you're settling into your role as CFO. You've had some time to take a look at the sort of scope of the business. I'm sure you're excited about it when you kind of came in the door. Now with some time under the belt, maybe you could talk to us about what excites you most about that longer-term potential at Autodesk?
I'm happy to, Keith, and thank you for hosting, by the way, while Elizabeth is out, so we appreciate that. Before we talk about the long-term excitement, what excites me the most in the short term is reading a safe harbor statement. So let me do that first. We may make forward-looking statements during the course of this presentation. Please refer to our SEC filings for information on risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements. That was so exciting. As you said, I've been here about 14, 15 months now. And when I first joined the company, it was on the thesis that we've got a stable, consistent, resilient growth business. And superimposed on that, we've got some terrific catalysts in cloud and AI and all the investments the company was making on the platform side as well as the opportunity to continue to create shareholder value by driving margin expansion. So it was a terrific trifecta of all of those things.
And I think what excited me over the past 14 or 15 months, I think that conviction has largely played out. And what excites me the most is, again, just those same three things about the future. When I look at the market opportunity ahead of us, we've got some fundamental secular trends that are working in our favor. You look at the adoption of technology within spaces like construction. You think about the digitization of manufacturing, you think about all of the investments that are going into infrastructure and so many of the other spaces in which we operate. So we've got some terrific growth drivers in the industries in which we operate. That's working really well for us. And we've been investing heavily in cloud and AI for many years now. There was a point in time in the past when people used to sometimes think why we're making those investments.
And clearly, those were the right decisions to make based on where we are in the present. And the future potential for those is, I think, incredibly exciting as well. And we've proven the ability to deliver strong margin expansion, and there's more to come on that in our long-term target as well. So all of those things still exciting about the future as well.
That's a great opening to the conversation. I want to start on kind of the near term, and then we'll expand into sort of the longer-term product vision. Last week, you guys reported earnings, and it's really a solid set of results across the board. You beat on billings, revenues, margins, free cash flow, all ahead of expectations. Maybe you could sort of help us dive into that and provide a little bit more color about the overall health of the business in Q4 and as you head into your next fiscal year, how are you feeling about both the environment that you're operating in and the efficacy with which Autodesk is operating in that environment?
Yes. Q4 was a great quarter for us across all fronts. When I look at the business from the standpoint of industries in which we operate or verticals or segments or geographies, we did really well across the board. Data centers did really well. Industrial buildings did really well. If I look at it from a geographic lens, emerging markets where there's tremendous infrastructure build-outs happening, we continue to do well on that front as well. So overall, no matter which dimension you look at, the business continued to do well, and that's on the back of strong expansion business as well as new business growth that we were seeing. And it goes back to the fact that in many of our businesses in which we operate, fundamentally, our customers are actually capacity constrained. And there's not enough people to do all the work that there is to be done. In construction, as one example, there's probably 8 to 10 months of backlog.
And so when you see strength in one area like in data centers, it's coming out of some place else, but there's always a volume of work to get through. And over the course of last year, if I think about the economic backdrop, we had a lot of noise in the external environment, but we never really saw that flow through to customer buying patterns. Customers were concerned, but they still made the investments and they still wrote the checks. So we feel very good about how customers spend through that time frame just because they see the same underlying demand drivers over the long term. And we expect the same will continue in fiscal '27 as well.
Right. So if we dig into that, Autodesk has historically been seen as more macro sensitive than most in software. But it sounds like the customers are starting to understand the value proposition better, right? It's not a cost that comes in with new projects. It's a way of making your business more effective. It's a way of enabling you to get to that backlog. It's a way of augmenting a human capital. So is this making your business less cyclical? Is it enabling you guys to grow more durably despite what is -- it feels like always going to be a very noisy kind of macro backdrop.
Yes. That is my sense. The business has been a very consistent grower. If I look back in time over the past 3, 4 years, we've delivered a very consistent level of growth. That has been across different elements of noise or volatility that you see in the external environment. I think a big part of that is just the diversification of the business as well that we have. We've got strong presence in AEC, but also in manufacturing and a much smaller presence in media and entertainment, heavily diversified across geographies. But even within AEC, the Autodesk of 10, 15 years ago was an Autodesk that focused solely on design -- plan and design. And since then, we've extended into the make, which was construction and even on the manufacturing side with Fusion. We've got declared ambitions to complete that life cycle and go into the operate phase where over time, then our involvement with projects is not going to be measured in months or years, but it's going to be measured in decades because that's the life cycle of these assets.
And that will then inform what happens earlier in the plan and design stage as well. So as we've grown the business across all of these different vectors, that's helped bring a level of stability to the business as well and the ability to withstand some level of external movements. No business is completely immune from the macro, but we feel pretty good about the business we've built.
It's a fascinating expansion of the product strategy and definitely going to dig into this. Basically, Autodesk is becoming almost the operating system for physical assets, whether it be a building or a product over time, and it's hugely expansive to the TAM. But before we go there, I want to talk about margins. You're the CFO, I got to dig into margins. It's my contractual obligation. So FY '27 -- FY '26 was a really good year for margin expansion, 200 basis points of margin expansion. You guys think you could add another 75 basis points in FY '27. Part of that is a restructuring that you talked about a 7% reduction in workforce. Could you talk to us a little bit about the puts and takes of that? Like where is the -- where are the heads coming from? How much of that gets incrementally invested back into the business? How do you think about that balance between pushing more leverage, pushing more margin versus going after that big growth opportunity that we've been talking about?
Yes. I'll put that in the context of some of the broader business model changes that we have been making because that's actually helped us drive the margin over a period of time. And you may not have followed the Autodesk story recently. I know you did some time back. But what we did was we fundamentally changed how we go to market in what we call the new transaction model. And with -- in many of the developed countries around the world, we now have a direct relationship with our end customers. The partner still plays a very important role, but we -- the customer places an order on us directly that allows us to build better integrations with them, better understand how they are using the products. We get great demand signals from them.
We can use that back into funneling new and expansion motions. Now one of the mechanical effects of that model was it changed the accounting, which increases our revenue and increases our expense, which the net result is sort of a mathematical headwind on operating margin in percentage terms. It doesn't affect the dollars, but it affects the percentage. So this year, as we think about all of the changes that we made on the go-to-market side. We started off with the implementation of that new transaction model. We made some changes on the partner side as well. And then in preparation for being able to work more closely with our customers directly, we did one restructuring a year ago.
And in that restructuring, we largely took out nonselling resources, customer success, marketing, sales operations, and we reinvested some of that back in the business to build new capabilities that we knew we would need for this year. And what you saw us do here in January in this latest restructuring, which is the final step of that overall business model transition and go-to-market optimization, as that final piece of the puzzle comes together, we did impact some of the sellers, but we also have new tools and capabilities that allow us to work with those customers a lot more efficiently. So where -- some of the savings from the restructuring are actually going to be reinvested back in the business. Some of it will be in selling capacity because we took some people out we need to hire in other locations for different skill sets, different capabilities.
Some of that investment will also go back into the marketing functions. Some of it will go back into core R&D work that we're doing, particularly around AI and platform. And so if I think -- bring this all back to op margin and think about the various puts and takes, that 75 basis points of expansion at the midpoint, that reflects the savings from the restructuring net of the reinvestments that we're making. It reflects the inherent operating leverage that we've got in the business. And it also absorbs within that roughly about 100 basis points of incremental that mechanical accounting percentage headwind. So we're effectively absorbing about 100 basis points of that in this margin expansion that we've got as well. So there is core operating margin inherent in the model, and we're really happy that we're able to deliver that. And this sets us up very well to achieve our long-term margin objectives.
So within that sort of incremental leverage, I spent 10 minutes without talking about AI, and then that's as long as I could go during this TMT conference...
I brought it up.
You brought it up. I haven't asked the specific question. How far along the journey of kind of utilizing these technologies internally from a development standpoint, the customer service standpoint, improving go-to-market, are you guys -- have you guys gone, right, in terms of being able to run your business more effectively? And then we'll turn to sort of like what you're pushing out to customers.
Yes. We have been big users of various AI tools and technologies internally. When things first started to move, call it, a little over a year or so ago, we had 1,000 flowers bloom. We just encourage people to keep adopting it and using it in creative ways to see how they would actually be able to benefit from it in their day-to-day work. A lot of it was just basic productivity enhancements, but productivity enhancements, not in the form that you could immediately monetize. It made us -- it helped us better prepare for our earnings call, but that doesn't translate into real dollars saved anywhere. So that's just one example. But on the development side, now we've started to do a lot more. We've rolled out cloud code quite widely within the organization.
Developers are a lot more productive. And the way I think about this is over the course of the long term, we're going to invest a certain amount of dollars into hiring additional engineering capacity, hiring headcount. And what this allows us to do is shift some of those headcount dollars to technology dollars. We don't want to use AI to limit the output of the organization and drive cost savings. But the way we're thinking about this is if we can use it to drive greater velocity and greater productivity in the development organization while staying invested in R&D, it will just help us accelerate that much faster, and it will help pull the future into the present that much faster. So we're using it as a way in which we can drive greater productivity. And in the initial stages, that also means a greater level of investment on the part of the company because we want to drive the adoption so people see the benefits and don't let the cost be a reason not to adopt the technology in the early stages.
Got it. Got it. And then shifting gears to the opportunity from AI. You said earlier that Autodesk has been talking about AI for a while, right? I remember probably a decade ago, you guys started first talking about generative design, which was utilizing a lot of these machine learning technologies. But now there's new capabilities that are emerging, new large language models. How does that expand the opportunity? Like when you look at these new capabilities being able to reason over unstructured data or whatnot and apply that to the frame of reference of what Autodesk is doing for your end customers, where do you see the white space? Where do you see the incremental opportunity of what Autodesk is now going to be able to do for their customers that 3 years ago, 5 years ago, we really just weren't?
Yes. It's a great question. You have a great memory, by the way. You remember things that we said a long time ago. So yes, we did start investing in AI almost a decade ago. A lot of that was with our initial research capabilities. We built out teams and expertise over time. The level of AI skill sets in the industry is -- it's a very rare skill set. 3D skill sets are very rare as well in the intersection of both of those, those are really hard skills to find. So we started to invest in those capabilities and build those out. The way we think about the opportunity is a couple of things. One is, as I mentioned, people in our industry are fundamentally capacity constrained, right? They just don't have enough people to take on all the projects that they want to take on.
So as AI helps users become much more productive and reduce risk, it allows them to take on more projects with the same level of staffing that they have. It also means that if they can prevent mistakes that would occur downstream, which cost them millions of dollars, if they can prevent those upstream in the planning and design phase, it derisks their projects and again, makes them that much more productive. So fundamentally, when we think about the core customer problem we are trying to solve, it's about capacity and productivity for our customers. In terms of how we go about doing that, there's essentially 3 layers of monetization that we think about. The first is what we just call task automation. It's simply features in a product that makes your users more productive.
It's a feature that allows you to do something faster and then you -- and take the mundane work away from you, and so you feel like you had a much better experience and got a lot more done. That doesn't make our own COGS meter spin any faster. That's just value we deliver to you through the subscription. So we would monetize that. And that also doesn't reduce the number of seats. So we would just monetize that through a traditional seat-based model where the price that we charge for the subscription is directly linked to the value that we deliver through that subscription. Above that, you have more consumptive types of workloads, which are essentially helping them automate entire workflows or even entire projects, what we call system automation or system-wide automation.
So if you think about task workflow and systems, the workflow and systems automation will be much more consumption-oriented or usage-oriented. And then the way we monetize those will also be through usage-based models because those will also be more resource-intensive on our end. And so we had -- we described this all at Autodesk University, which is our user conference some time back. We've been working with customers along this. And we are very early, relatively speaking, in the adoption journey. A lot of what you see come out will initially be around the task automation side, but workflow automation and system automation is also on the road map, and we are starting to work with many customers who are in the early stages of trying those out. And then the important piece is that over the last 8 years or so, as we built the platform capabilities, we've built the technology stack to support it.
And through the whole go-to-market transition that we did, ultimately, we knew this is the path we're going to head down. And so we've actually been building consumption-oriented capabilities in the go-to-market organization as well. Back in fiscal '25, 17% of our business was in consumption-based models. So we've already built the expertise and the knowledge to take these offerings to our customers.
And then is there a gross margin impact that as investors should keep an eye on? You've talked about a lot of these capabilities as more compute intensive. How should we think about that trade-off, the monetization that you just described versus perhaps higher COGS on the other side to power these solutions?
Yes. There will be a gross margin impact in percentage terms over the long term. These workloads will still be gross profit dollars accretive. So it's still the right thing for us in terms of creating shareholder value, but it does have an impact on gross margin. But that's one of the things that we factor in as we think about the inherent operating leverage in the model. And when we laid out our long-term margin target at our Investor Day some months ago, that was certainly one of the considerations as well. So it's one of the different factors that we manage in the overall mix for sure.
All right. So I want to switch gears a little bit and dive into product strategy, starting with the AEC side of the equation. One of the things that I've always found super interesting in the Autodesk story, there's always a lot of focus on the A side of the equation, the architecture and the design and you guys have had a pretty dominant sort of positioning in that, but there's so much white space in the C side of the equation, right? And now you guys are bringing together that design and make into a cloud-based environment. Construction, in particular, has been under sort of technologized or digitized, right? There's a huge amount of inefficiency and waste that takes place in construction. That's not new, but it feels like it's a more fertile ground for adoption of those technologies. So can you talk -- maybe to start out, talk about why is now the right time for bringing these 2 domains together? Why is right now the right time for getting better traction in terms of digitizing what's going on in construction?
Yes. It's a great question. I mean we started to think about extending beyond the pure design stage of the life cycle all the way back in 2018, as I hear Andrew sort of describe some of the history of why we got into make. And we started to invest in those capabilities because ultimately, to your point, when you look at construction, it's one of the least digitized industries there is. And the construction business is -- it's a really tough business. If you overbid on a project, you don't win the business. If you underbid on it, you may lose your shirt.
And so it's a really tough business with wafers and margins. And so we saw this problem and said, look, if we can help these customers, the GCs, the subs and others think about ways in which they can manage the risk in their projects more effectively and make them more productive, that's a significant market opportunity. But also if we connect that upstream all the way back to the owners, where if you think about the entire life cycle, having the owners, having the architects, the designers, the GC, all on the same collaborative platform working through the life cycle of that project, there's a tremendous opportunity there, too. And we've been chipping away at it for some time.
The diffusion of technology always takes a long time, especially the further away you are from key centers like the Bay Area or New York or what have you. And so we've been chipping away at it for some time, but we feel like these underlying growth drivers that have been in place for some time, we see them continuing into the future as well. So we feel very good about our position in construction and across the entire life cycle.
And it also matches kind of what you're seeing taking place with your end customers of that the design to build within one firm is becoming more and more part of the overall environment. And again, you guys become that system of record, right, for the data, the process, the workflows all along the life cycle of that building, and we'll get into the product side of the equation as well. How do you think about the Autodesk competitive advantage, particularly when we're talking about Construction Cloud, something you entered later. There's some -- vendors have been focused on that part of the solution for a while. How do you look to differentiate? And how has that competitive dynamic been playing out in the marketplace?
So when I step back and think about the core differentiators for us, right, we've got naturally a very strong industry presence and awareness and familiarity and a very high level of trust that we enjoy with our customers. But if I think about it from the standpoint of particularly in an AI world, as you think about the core differentiators of Autodesk as a platform relative to some of the other things that might be out there, we touched on this a little bit in the most recent earnings call, but it comes down to 3 fundamental things in our minds. One is the data. The second is the context and the third is the expertise.
And so just to touch on some of those things, we've been -- as we invested in AI, we've been training our foundation models on the data that we've acquired from customers over many, many years and years of projects, hundreds of thousands of customers and years of experience with that. The customers naturally own their own data. We don't own it, but we do have the rights to train our models on their data, which allows us to build much more powerful capabilities in terms of model outputs than things that might be trained on data that's purely in the public domain or unlimited data sets because all of this data doesn't sit anywhere outside in the public world. And even it's scattered across all of our different customers. So it's just with Autodesk where we have all of this access to this data. That allows us to build much more powerful capabilities and models.
The second is the context behind that. As we think about collaboration across the workflows, as we think about the recommendations that come out of it, the models need to be able to use the context of the overall project before you can actually make a commitment or not. The auditability, what the previous decisions were, what the implications are of decisions around everything else. Maybe to use an example, right, if you sort of look at a simple visualization tool and say, here's a drawing and I want to move this wall 10 feet from here to there, it's easy enough to just do that on a screen. But what do you do about all the things that you can't see? When you move that wall, what does it do in terms of egress requirements? Are you now still satisfying the fire code? What about the mechanical, electrical and plumbing, which you really can't see? Did you just cross over some pipes or wires on that front?
So there's a lot of context and richness and awareness of the project itself, not just in terms of who all the collaborators are, but what all the downstream implications are. And using the data that we've got, we have that richness of context that we can then bring to bear in that example. And the third was the expertise that we talked about earlier. So I think those are the core differentiators for us as we think about the end-to-end workflows for customers as they -- particularly as they adopt more AI-oriented solutions from us.
Got it. So if we think about the Construction Cloud in particular, you guys have pulled together a pretty comprehensive suite. Are there parts of the suite that are getting more traction than others? Are there particular landing points that you've been particularly successful with?
Well, I'd say the landing points are more around wherever the nature of the demand is, right? We see a lot of strength from data centers right now. And the insertion point also might vary with the kinds of projects that you're landing. So in data centers, you have very sophisticated owner operators that want to actually dictate what the technology stack is for the entire ecosystem so they can centrally manage the entire project and also operate the entire project in the future. There may be less sophisticated use cases for other construction projects where the owners may not be as involved and they may leave the technology decisions to GCs.
And in that case, that's fine, too, because we work with the GCs and we'll -- the sale to them is around how it makes their lives easier by coordinating across all their subs, making them more productive and helping reduce their risk. So I think that varies based on who the personas are that you're talking to. But the net result of all of that is they all see the opportunity to drive productivity and reduce risk.
Got it. Got it. Switching gears to Fusion. Fusion remains one of the fastest-growing products in the manufacturing industry. Can you talk to us about what's been the secret sauce enabling the solution to really sustain that high level of growth for really the past almost decade now within Fusion. And you've expanded out the portfolio as well. And as kind of a follow-on question, any particular strategies to improve like attach rates and get higher attach rates around Fusion of some of the extensions?
Yes. It's -- Fusion is really exciting for us as we think about the complexity of manufacturing and the opportunity to drive greater digitization in manufacturing. When most people think about manufacturing, they think about the complex manufacturing at the high end, where there's a lot of large incumbent players, highly complicated processes and so forth. The vast majority of manufacturing happens actually in the mid-market and the lower end of the market, where you're thinking about designing simpler products like a desk or like a flower base or what have you. And then you're thinking about how those will get mass produced. And so we see significant opportunity there. That's been our historical sweet spot.
We've played in the mid-market. And for Fusion, a lot of our initial adoption has been in very small deployments, 1 and 2 seats, 3 to 5 seats. So they are not very complex, but we see a significant opportunity, particularly with moving into more multiuser situations, and that's, call it, 10 to 20 seat accounts for midsized manufacturers. And as we do that, that naturally drives significantly more seat count and growth. But also part of the keys to unlocking that is we also need to continue to invest in greater data management capabilities in the Fusion platform. So those have been road map items that we've been investing in for some time, and we had some releases over the course of fiscal '26.
There's more to come in fiscal '27 and beyond. So as we continue to build the capabilities that are suited for that midsized manufacturer, we will continue to move upstream, and I think that will continue to sustain growth for us quite nicely. The other dimension to that is also the complexity of the products that are being manufactured as you go from simpler products to more -- there's tremendous opportunity in just core design and manufacturer of consumer products. And so that's another focus area for us. It's a different dimension or a different way of looking at the same opportunity set in terms of what products are being manufactured, but you'll see more of that in the future.
Got it. And it seems that there's also an element of that full life cycle that you guys have embedded into the Fusion solution or that the product data sits right with it is almost a database, right, of sort of that product data and the component that you could utilize not just in the design, but also in terms of the maintenance of that product over time.
Yes, absolutely. So when we talk about our ambitions in the operations space, it's not just limited to building operations as in the O of AECO, right? It also is all about manufacturing operations, where there's a very large opportunity set as well. The operations space is highly fragmented. And our approach to operations is going to be very similar to the approach that we took in construction, which is we are going to place a couple of big markers down with acquisitions and then build around them. But those will be focused on both AEC, but also on manufacturing operations because the life cycle of what you're manufacturing and then the closed loop to take it back to the plan and design and make phase, that's an incredibly powerful cycle that -- and that can be the gift that keeps on giving for a long time to come.
Got it. So looking forward a little bit, you guys have introduced Project Bernini, right, a generative AI model for 3D. You guys talk about it as a professional-grade foundational model for design. How should we be thinking about the time frame of taking a foundational new capability like that, starting to put into the product and then eventually starting to monetize it more effectively?
Yes. Bernini was the beginnings of what we did with foundation models, right? And it initially started off in our research labs. There's a gentleman called Mike Haley, who actually has been on the road with Simon and many investors have met him as well. And Mike and his team have been really the brains behind a lot of what we've done on that front. And since Bernini, we've invested and developed more in terms of additional foundation models that we've started to bring to market with some of our customers. And those foundation models are the ones that are trained on the data sets with our customers that I talked about earlier and are delivering much more powerful capabilities and frankly, more cost effective as well because they are tailor-made to our particular domains and use cases, so they're not only better outcomes, but more cost effective as well.
So you're starting to see many of those things. We showcased some of the capabilities around that at Autodesk University back in September. Over the course of the next few months, you'll see many more launches from Autodesk in terms of product capabilities and specific products where they will bring some of those capabilities to life. So it's still very early stages, but we are super excited about where that can go in the future. And as we think about the workloads that end up, as I said, being more compute-intensive for us, those will get monetized over a longer period of time. The earlier adoption of that you see and the earlier manifestations you'll see will be more in task automation-oriented workloads.
So shifting gears again, I want to go back to kind of go-to-market. You brought up the transactional model earlier, which is another step on what has been really a long journey for Autodesk in changing the nature of your relationship with the customers. I would argue part one was moving to a subscription model in the first place. You talked about the accounting impacts, which is important for this crowd, but there's also the benefits, right? Can you talk to us about some of the benefits of having that more direct relationship being able to really have that communication or that to build, but still the communication with the end customer.
Yes. It's -- that was the whole intent. When we said we want to have that direct relationship, it was because we felt that knowing what a customer is using and how they are using it will give us much better signals to be able to then go back to them and represent the full breadth of the portfolio that we have and drive greater expansion in those accounts over time. That was the core thesis. That's why we went through all of the pain of the implementation of that model. That's why many investors went through the pain with us as we got through the numbers and the financial impact of that transition. And when we implemented that as there was some level of operational friction in the latter part of '25, in particular.
And we knew that going in, and that's all subsided over the course of '26. So if I think about the benefits of that, there's a few things that I think about right away. First, that's actually helped us be a lot more efficient in our go-to-market model. And we've already seen that reflected in the form of the restructurings that we did and reduce the cost and improve the margin profile of the company. So that's a real and tangible benefit that we've already started to realize.
And over time, what ends up happening is we can continue to drive greater new business growth. Again, we saw very strong results in fiscal '26. Some of that is naturally the benefits associated with the new transactional model. It's really hard to sort of unpack it and say this was a benefit and this was organic growth because ultimately, it's one engagement model that you have with the customer. And then over time, as we continue to improve on the signals that we're getting from the customer, although we rolled the model out in '25, we really started to see initial signals from the customer in '26, particularly as we lap the first renewals.
So now we're in a much more stable state. And as we get -- continue to get better signals from the customers and can engage with them, we can develop the right campaigns, we can develop the right plays with the expansion teams that we've put in place with the restructuring that we just did of the sales organization. So we feel that that's now the setup for driving even greater growth and expansion through those customers in the future.
Got it. So if we bring this all together, multiple vectors of growth for Autodesk. We're talking about improving the productivity of your end customers. So your existing customers become more productive, you're driving more value from them and you have monetization avenues for that in terms of the consumptive. We're talking about going broader across the life cycle of both sort of the buildings and the products that's enabling you to get into more categories, more fully into C, more fully into O with the operations across, again, both building and the product side of the equation. And now you have a better relationship or a tighter relationship with the customers to better understand their problems. How should we think about this sort of all coming together in terms of what's the durable long-term growth that we should expect to see from Autodesk, not just for FY '27, but for the 3 and 5 years beyond?
Yes. I mean you summarized it perfectly, Keith. Those are the things that I think about. And if I go back -- and if I go back to where I started in terms of what excites me about the future, it's the secular growth trends that we see, all the work that we've done to be ready to capture that opportunity through the products, through the go-to-market changes. It's the investments that we've made in AI. Just as we are implementing this final phase of the go-to-market optimization, we just need to be a little bit careful because there's sort of near-term disruption in the sales organization associated with the implementation of the [indiscernible] and the expansion teams and so forth. That's part of what we baked into our guidance as we said we'll be a little bit cautious in the near term associated just with that one factor. But other than that, I feel really good about the long-term growth of the business.
Yes. Unfortunately, that takes us to the end of our time. But Janesh, thank you so much for joining us. This is a great conversation.
Thank you so much.
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Autodesk — Morgan Stanley Technology
Autodesk — Morgan Stanley Technology
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernbotschaft: Autodesk positioniert sich als «Betriebssystem» für physische Assets: Ausbau von Design→Make→Operate, breite Branchen-Diversifikation und frühe Cloud-/AI-Investitionen sollen Wachstum stabilisieren und Kundenproduktivität steigern.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Life‑Cycle‑Vertiefung: Fokus auf vollständige Wertschöpfungskette (Plan, Make, Operate) — Ziel: längere Kundenbeziehung, mehr Datennutzung und neue Monetarisierungspunkte.
- AI‑Roadmap: Dreistufige Monetarisierung — Task‑Automatisierung (Feature‑basiert), Workflow‑/System‑Automatisierung (verbrauchsorientiert), Plattform‑Foundation‑Models (z.B. Project Bernini) für domänenspezifische Modelle.
- Go‑to‑Market: Abschluss der «new transaction model»‑Umstellung mit direkter Kundenbeziehung, effizienterem Vertrieb und besseren Expansions‑Signalen.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Konkretes: FY‑26: +200 Basispunkte (bps) operative Marge; FY‑27‑Mitte: weiterer Ausbau um ~75 bps eingeplant (bps = Basispunkte). Kürzung der Belegschaft ~7% Teil der Optimierung; etwa 100 bps Accounting‑Headwind durch Transaktionsmodell bereits eingeplant.
- Monetarisierung: 17% des Geschäfts schon in FY‑25 konsumptionsbasiert; AI‑Workloads werden langfristig COGS‑intensiver sein, bleiben aber grossprofit‑positiv.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Margen vs. Wachstum: Analysten forderten Klarheit, wie Restrukturierungseinsparungen gegen Re‑Investitionen (Vertrieb, Marketing, R&D/AI) aufgewogen werden — Management nennt Nettoeffekt im Guidance‑Midpoint.
- AI‑Monetarisierung: Nachfrage nach Zeitplan und Margenauswirkung — Antwort: Task‑Automationen zuerst, umfassendere, nutzungsbasierte Angebote später; langfristiger Prozent‑Margen‑Druck auf Grossmargin erwartet, aber profitable Erweiterung.
- Construction & Fusion: Nachfrage zu Differenzierung und Skalierung — Antwort: Daten‑Kontext‑Expertise (Projektdaten, Auditierbarkeit, Domänenwissen) als Wettbewerbsvorteil; Fusion‑Wachstum durch Up‑/Cross‑sell und verbesserte Daten‑Management‑Funktionen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bottom Line: Management liefert klare Strategie: Plattformisierung + AI + direkter Kundenkontakt sollen langfristiges, weniger zyklisches Wachstum ermöglichen. Kurzfristig bleibt die Rentabilitätssicht positiv (weiterer Margenauftrieb), aber Investitionen in AI, Re‑Investitionen und ein erwarteter Grossmargin‑Mixeffekt erfordern Beobachtung.
Autodesk — Q4 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Autodesk Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to hand the call over to Simon Mays-Smith, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thanks, operator, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss Autodesk's fiscal '26, 4th quarter and full year results. Andrew Anagnost, our CEO; and Janesh Moorjani, our CFO, are on the line with me.
During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, including outlook and related assumptions on products, artificial intelligence, sales and marketing optimization, go-to-market strategies and trends. Actual events or results could differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-Q and the Form 8-K filed with today's press release. for important risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from those in our forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements made during the call are being made as of today. If this call is relayed or reviewed after today, the information presented during the call may not contain current or accurate information. Autodesk disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. We will quote several numeric or growth changes during the call as we discuss our financial performance. Unless otherwise noted, each such reference represents a year-on-year comparison. All non-GAAP numbers referenced in today's call are reconciled in our press release and supplemental materials available on our Investor Relations website.
And now I will turn the call over to Andrew.
Thank you, Simon, and welcome, everyone, to the call. We delivered strong fiscal '26 results today with billings, revenue, non-GAAP operating margin, non-GAAP earnings per share and free cash flow all above the high end of our guidance ranges. .
As demonstrated at Autodesk University and our Investor Day and reflected in our results today, we remain well positioned to deliver for Autodesk customers and investors. We have successfully executed one of the most far-reaching transformations in enterprise software, redefining our business model, evolving our go-to-market, reimagining our products and scaling our platform. In January, we completed the final phase of our go-to-market optimization. While initiatives like this are difficult and complex, they are making Autodesk more resilient and unlocking new avenues for growth and margin expansion.
We're also enhancing our portfolio with cloud-based platforms and capabilities that seamlessly connect design, make and operate workflows. These platforms enable partners and customers to extend and customize our solutions, driving greater value creation and expanding our addressable market opportunity. And we're defining the AI revolution for our industries to empower customers with new tasks, workflow and system automations, and capturing shared value to subscription, consumption and outcome-based business models that blend human and machine capabilities.
In the coming months, Autodesk will roll out powerful AI capabilities built on a combination of frontier models and our proprietary models that understand 3D design and make. Autodesk is building the future and the path to it for our customers. We have been preparing for and working towards the cloud and AI for more than a decade. It's why I believe our best days and greatest opportunities lie ahead.
I will now turn the call over to Janesh to discuss our quarterly financial performance and guidance. I'll then come back to update you on our strategic growth initiatives and why Autodesk is best placed to benefit from 3D agentic AI.
Thanks, Andrew. Q4 was another robust quarter for Autodesk, capping off a strong fiscal year. Autodesk continues to demonstrate growth and resilience, investing to advance our leadership in cloud platform and AI while also expanding operating margins.
Overall, the underlying momentum of the business in the fourth quarter was similar to prior quarters and better than the assumptions we built into our guidance ranges. We again saw strength in AECO, particularly in construction and emerging markets with sustained investment in data centers, infrastructure and industrial buildings more than offsetting softness in commercial.
EBA and product subscription billings, linearity of billings during the quarter and upfront revenue were also strong. Total revenue in the fourth quarter grew 19% as reported and in constant currency. The contribution from the new transaction model to revenue was approximately $137 million in the quarter. Total revenue grew 14% in constant currency and excluding the impact of the new transaction model. Please see the tables in our press release, earnings deck and XL financials for details by product and region.
Billings increased 33% as reported and 30% in constant currency. The contribution from the new transaction model to billings was approximately $185 million in the quarter. Billings grew 32% in constant currency and excluding the impact of the new transaction model. As a reminder, our billings growth rate in fiscal '26 was skewed by the new transaction model and by the transition to annual billings for most multiyear contracts.
Turning to margins. Fourth quarter GAAP and non-GAAP operating margins were 22% and 38%, respectively. GAAP operating margin was broadly flat year-over-year, primarily reflecting a restructuring charge of $100 million related to our go-to-market optimization. The action we announced in January marks the culmination of our sales and marketing optimization program and reflects our sustained commitment to both investing in our strategic priorities and achieving the long-term margin goal we talked about at our Investor Day.
Non-GAAP operating margin was up 120 basis points year-over-year, benefiting from operating leverage from our revenue outperformance as well as ongoing cost discipline, partly offset by the margin drag from the new transaction model.
Fourth quarter free cash flow of $972 million benefited from overall billing strength as well as the linearity of billings in the quarter.
Moving on to capital allocation. We repurchased approximately 1.1 million shares for $333 million in the fourth quarter. For the year, our share repurchases increased to $1.4 billion a bit more than 50% of our free cash flow and reduced our shares outstanding by 2.1 million shares. Recent share price weakness triggered greater share repurchases under our programmatic share repurchase grid. This increased share repurchase activity above guidance lowered our average purchase price and further reduced share count.
Let me finish with guidance. Our guidance philosophy is unchanged. Our guidance continues to be based on the range of possible outcomes in our bottom-up sales forecast, which is grounded in the momentum of our business. We've assumed the macroeconomic environment will remain broadly stable through the year. You will recall our guidance at the start of fiscal '26 was shaped by a prudent assessment of a few key factors.
First, as we enter fiscal '26, we anticipate potential disruption from our restructuring and marketing, customer success and sales operations. We see the potential for disruption again in fiscal '27 and we believe that both the probability and the potential impact of disruption are higher given the focus of the restructuring this year is on customer-facing sales functions. We have embedded this risk discretely into our guidance for fiscal '27.
Second, last year, we anticipated potential disruption from our appointment of a new Chief Revenue Officer. This did not materialize as Andy Elder settled into his role rapidly. And finally, last year, I was new to Autodesk. Over the past year, I've gained a deep understanding of the business and its resilience, which has strengthened my confidence in Autodesk's ability to grow our scale, invest in its strategic priorities and drive expanded profitability.
So the way to frame our fiscal '27 guidance is that we expect the underlying momentum of the business will remain strong. Like last year, our constant currency guidance incorporates prudence to reflect temporary risk to billings and revenue as we operationalize our sales optimization plan. Unlike last year, it does not reflect additional prudence for a new CFO and CRO. And of course, we cannot assume that we will get any tailwind from currency movements this year in the same way as we did last year.
Let me point out a few items in our guidance measures. As you can see from our guidance, billings growth in fiscal '27 no longer has a tailwind from the new transaction model or from the transition to annual billings for most multiyear contracts. We expect billings to be slightly more weighted towards the second half of the year, in part reflecting our assumption that there will be short-term disruption earlier in the year from our sales restructuring and in part due to the weighting of our largest EBA cohort in the fourth quarter.
On revenue, the noise from the new transaction model will significantly diminish during the year from a tailwind of roughly 3.5 percentage points in the first quarter to roughly 1.5 percentage points for the full year. We will talk about it less as that noise fades.
And again, our assumption that there will be some impact on billings from our sales restructuring earlier in the year is reflected in the implied revenue growth later in the year.
Non-GAAP margins will reflect ongoing operating leverage, savings from restructuring, sustained investments in our long-term strategic priorities, roughly 1 point of incremental headwind from the new transaction model and prudence to reflect risk as we operationalize our sales optimization plan. Free cash flow will reflect 2 discrete movements in fiscal '27. First, we expect cash restructuring outflows of between $135 million and $160 million during the year. And second, we do not expect to pay meaningful U.S. federal cash tax in fiscal '27 due to the R&D investment provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The net effect of these discrete cash movements is immaterial to free cash flow in fiscal '27. Our U.S. federal cash tax payments will begin to normalize in fiscal '28.
Additionally, we continue to manage our stock-based compensation with discipline. We expect SBC to fall below 10% of revenue in fiscal '27 continuing the trend of the last few years. Reflecting all this, for fiscal '27, our billings guidance ranges $8.48 billion to $8.58 billion. Our revenue guidance ranges $8.1 billion to $8.17 billion. Our GAAP operating margin guidance range is 26% to 28%. Our non-GAAP operating margin guidance range is 38.5% to 39%. Our free cash flow guidance range is $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion.
Our capital allocation framework is unchanged. We will continue to deploy cash to the highest return opportunities, prioritize organic investment in R&D and accelerate the realization of our strategy with targeted and tuck-in acquisitions. And we will maintain a healthy buyback program with the goal of reducing share count over time.
Over the last few years, we've applied approximately 50% of our free cash flow towards share buybacks, and we expect to do the same in fiscal '27. We expect our share buyback in fiscal '27 to be similar to fiscal '26 in total dollars with the precise amount determined by our purchasing grids. Subject to acquisitions, we expect to apply approximately 50% of our free cash flow towards share buybacks over a multiyear period.
In summary, we remain disciplined and focused on the controllable factors that drive our revenue, operating margin, earnings per share and capital allocation, which are the key building blocks of free cash flow per share. The slide deck on our website has modeling assumptions for the first quarter and full year fiscal '27. As I mentioned at Investor Day, we are updating and streamlining certain disclosures to simplify Autodesk's reporting. There's more detail on those changes in the deck, too.
Andrew, back to you.
Thank you, Janesh. Autodesk is focused on the convergence of design and make in the cloud, enabled by platform, industry clouds and AI.
Let me give you some examples of our progress in the quarter. Our customers and AECO architecture, engineering, construction and operations are demanding convergence. Convergence reduces risk increases quality and optimizes cost and resource use during the design and build phase of an asset, and it enhances efficiency, resilience and reuse during operations. All of this is in service of deploying fewer resources to every project so they can bid on and win more projects with the resources they have.
To better serve these needs, we intended to deploy capital to extend our footprint deeper into operations, applying the same playbook that proved successful in construction. Former [indiscernible] construction previously known as Autodesk Construction Cloud is a fast-growing component of our make solutions and has strong momentum with owners, designers, GCs and subcontractors seeking to converge design and construction workflows.
For example, following a competitive RFP process, Prestige Group, a top 3 real estate developer and asset owner in India selected Autodesk as its core design delivery platform for its engineering, digital transformation. We won back a major U.S. utility displacing a competitive solution with Forma for construction, further demonstrating the value customers see in our modern, scalable platform, common data environment and tighter integration across design and construction workflows.
A major hyperscaler is expanding its partnership with Autodesk to accelerate time to operation, cost management and digital twin workflows across data centers and facilities while improving collaboration and coordination across an ecosystem of more than 2,000 companies, including GCs and subcontractors.
As part of its enterprise digital strategy, a global pharmaceutical company chose Autodesk to be a strategic technology partner for the design, build and operation of facilities to connect data, systems and workflows throughout the entire project and asset life cycle.
ERP, a global engineering consultancy is expanding and standardizing on pharma for data-centric workflows, real-time collaboration across disciplines and geographies, and and AI-driven insights to drive innovation and better outcomes for clients in the built environment. 3 in our top 400 contractors adopted former for construction this quarter, including Roblin, which is replacing a competitive solution to leverage the power of a connected construction platform across preconstruction, construction and virtual design and construction.
These stories have a common theme converging people, processes and data across the project life cycle to increase efficiency and resilience, decrease risk and prepare for an an agentic AI world. Our comprehensive end-to-end industry clouds and platform drive convergence and extend our footprint further into the larger growth segments like infrastructure and construction that we discussed at Investor Day. All this is reflected in our strong momentum in both infrastructure and construction.
In manufacturing, customers are demanding convergence as they invest in their digital transformation to leverage granular and unified data and embrace AI-driven automation capable of industry transformation. By consolidating our design and make platform, customers have the flexibility and connectivity across workflows to increase agility, innovation and resilience.
For example, after successfully adopting fusion for in-house design and manufacturing of spare parts on production lines, a global brewing company is expanding the deployment to additional breweries to deliver cost savings and improve equipment uptime, a special purpose of shipbuilding and marine engineering firm with more than 2,000 employees, is adopting Fusion Manage as a mission-critical system for every new vessel project, aligning project management and multi-supplier collaboration in 1 place.
Typhoon, a Belgian industrial manufacturer selected our manufacturing solutions to replace legacy unintegrated tools, which were causing lost engineering hours to nonvalue-added tasks and inefficient collaboration. Seeking a unified future-ready platform, a multinational automotive manufacturer is replacing a competitive solution with Autodesk design solutions to standardize workflows and improve integration and collaboration across creative and technical teams.
A diversified industrial manufacturer is transitioning more than 900 users onto Autodesk's design and manufacturing solutions from a complex network of legacy systems. While Autodesk platform services will be leveraged by sales teams to rapidly modify and visualize product configurations in customer conversations, a global manufacturer of advanced lithium-ion batteries is leveraging Autodesk's manufacturing solutions for asset standardization, digital factory simulation and simulation-driven quality improvements to drive growth and efficiency.
Converge data opens up new opportunities for Autodesk. As customers seek efficient innovation, attach rates of Fusion's extensions are growing strongly, and we've delivered meaningful productivity gains to customers where we deploy AI. We have continued to see success with our AI-powered sketch auto constrained infusion.
Since its launch last year, the AI model has delivered over 3.8 million constraints, up from 2.6 million last quarter. Along the way, the model has been retrained and the UX improved. As a result, the acceptance rates by auto constraint suggestions to commercial users have now grown to almost 2/3 with 90% of those sketches fully constrained.
In education, we expanded our relationship with Valor Institute of Technology, VIP and India, where students are applying industrial-grade Autodesk tools to real-world design challenges. For example, engineering students are using fusion to design, simulate and optimize the formula race car. While architecture students are leveraging Revit and forma to design, simulate and visualize complex architectural projects which embeds sustainability and constructability.
And lastly, we continue to find new ways for our customers to consume our products and services in ways that work best for them. For example, Shoba, a real estate developer that designs, engineers, constructs and finishes units in-house uses our Flex offering to scale usage dynamically across projects and regions while maintaining full visibility and control over consumption and cost and aligning investments directly to business outcomes.
Let me finish by talking about AI. Building agentic AI requires data, context and expertise. Scaling and monetizing it requires a platform and next-generation business models and go-to-market. Let me unpack that a bit by talking about what's needed to build agentic AI capabilities. First, data. AI agents need large quantities of physical world data to learn how to drive design, make and operate decisions. This data needs to be high fidelity, contextual, geometry rich, span 2 and 3 dimensions and represent physics and engineering-based principles for the entire design, make operate life cycle.
Few companies have access to large amounts of real-world data to train agentic genic AI for our industries. Autodesk does. Second, context. Autodesk operates at the intersection of digital and physical worlds. This is one of the most complex real-world context in technology. When making inferences a genetic AI has to operate inside a live project where the correct answer depends on the design intent, current model state, regulations and standards, constraints, dependencies, permissions and approvals. Autodesk provides agents with this context, decisions must be compliant, coordinated, traceable and reversible.
Autodesk is a system of record where authoritive project and product context lives and where changes are executed, check and recorded. This makes Autodesk the natural control point for genic workflows.
Autodesk AI can propose and enable humans to verify and safely commit. Few companies understand this complex industry context across every discipline in the process. Autodesk does. And third, expertise specialized data and context are prerequisites, but so is specialized AI expertise.
For almost a decade, Autodesk has been building a world-class AI team for 3 design, make and operate. and cultivating a broad external ecosystem to support it. Over that time, we have built a strong reputation for having access to the right data, undertaking cutting-edge research and solving the most complex problems in 3D AI.
With those strong foundations reinforced by Autodesk's unique purpose and culture, we have been able to attract and retain top talent and develop our own 2D and 3D multimodal models that understand how the world is designed and made.
Few companies have been building their 3D AI capabilities, talent pool and ecosystem for almost a decade, even fewer have sufficient breadth and depth of 3D AI capabilities and expertise to build on. Autodesk has and does. Data in context fuel the Knowledge Graph, which is foundational to any artificial intelligence data are a context complexity makes the Knowledge Graph hard to replicate for our industries.
Even with data in context, you need sufficient specialized expertise to generate unique and valuable intellectual property. And then you need an ecosystem of partners built around that intellectual property, as you saw recently with our investment in World Labs. Few companies have all this. Autodesk does.
Let's move on to scaling and monetizing agentic AI. In preparation for the cloud and AI, Autodesk modernized its platform and go-to-market over the last few years. well ahead of industry peers. 2 industry peers are ready for the business models and go-to-market motions that will monetize their AI-driven future, Autodesk is. We built a platform that provides the identity, permissions, geometry kernels, data models and compute infrastructure needed to deploy AI safely and at scale into design, engineering, manufacturing and construction environments. Platforms enable safety, innovation and efficiency at scale.
Autodesk has built Autodesk Platform Services, APS, as an open platform that is purpose-built for an agentic AI world. It means we can ingest and process data more efficiently, accelerate our agent AI innovation and deploy agentic AI solutions at scale. Few companies have built infrastructure specifically for our industries. Autodesk has.
To summarize, building a genic AI for design and make requires data, context and talent. Scaling and monetizing it requires a platform and next-generation business models in go-to-market. Few companies have all these advantages. Autodesk does. It is not a coincidence. We have been preparing for and working towards the cloud and AI for more than a decade.
While some new entrants have some of the required capabilities, they lack the data and contact needed to deliver value. At Autodesk University in last year's Investor Day, we demonstrated how we're defining the AI revolution for our industries, empowering customers with new tasks, workflow and system automations and capturing shared value through subscription, consumption and outcome-based business models that blend human and machine capabilities. The pace of our innovation continues, and we have much more to share with you in the coming months.
I've never been more confident in the long-term value we are creating for our customers, for the industries that shape the world and for you, our shareholders.
Operator, we would now like to open the call up for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Saket Kalia of Barclays.
2. Question Answer
Absolutely. Andrew, maybe just to start with you. I want to zoom into your AI comments a little bit because I thought they were super interesting. When you think back to Investor Day last year, I think you talked about Autodesk's path to monetization -- and today, you're talking about sort of the AI competitive moats.
Could we maybe talk about where Autodesk fits into the broader AI ecosystem? And maybe specifically, -- how do you sort of see your relationship with the LMM's evolving over time? And how do those competitive moats maybe help balance that relationship? Sorry, there's a lot there, but does that make sense?
Yes. That makes sense. Thank you for that question, Saket. It's a great question. Look, at a high level, it's not our goal to compete with the core capabilities of what the Frontier models are good at. What our goal is, is to ensure that the combination of what the frontier models do, what an LLM does and what our proprietary foundation models do is always better than what a frontier model can do alone. .
And the reason we have so much conviction about that is really kind of the things I highlighted in the opening commentary, but I'll kind of go through it again a little bit here, right? It's the data, the context and the expertise we are sitting on volumes, large volumes of data about real-world problems, real-world situations, real-world constraints that is simply very scarce and very hard to get access to.
When you combine that with the deep context knowledge we have around design and engineering, into preconstruction planning and construction into manufacturing and all the things that go into making something -- you get this strong combination between data and context. It's very difficult to replicate. And that's going to allow us to always kind of stay in front of what is going on in the horizontal and the base foundation models. And that's really our goal.
Most companies in our industry are really going to struggle to do that because they don't have the volume of real-world data, they don't have the deep design and make context. We do, and we continue to use that and we'll continue to use that to stay ahead.
Got it. Makes a ton of sense. Janesh, maybe for my follow-up for you. It was helpful sort of how you compare the guidance from -- for this year compared to last year at this time. Could we maybe talk a little bit about the absolute levels of prudence that you've incorporated into the FY '27 guide maybe compared to last year? And how you sort of thought about that prudence over the year? .
Saket, I'm happy to talk about that. And maybe I'll just start by saying that the underlying momentum of the business remains really strong, and we see the demand drivers from fiscal '26 continuing this year here in fiscal '27.
In terms of the guidance, as I mentioned in the opening remarks, like last year, we've reflected prudence in the guidance to reflect the temporary risk that we see to billings and revenue related to the sales optimization plan. But unlike last year, we have not reflected additional prudence for our new CRO or CFO.
On the modeling and how that plays out over the year, we've assumed that there will be a short-term disruption in the early part of the year to billings growth from the sales restructure and then that assumption flows through rapidly to the underlying revenue growth later in the year.
If I think about where those potential impacts might be, it will likely be out on new product subscriptions because on renewal billings, which is, as you know, the largest part of the business and then also on self-serve and EBAs, we expect those to be relatively unaffected. But absent that temporary disruption on new product subscriptions, we expect the underlying customer demand to remain strong throughout the year.
Our next question comes from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer of Griffin Securities.
Andrew, for you first. There are obviously many ingredients to your product-led growth, and you spoke about that, and it's certainly baked into your billings guidance. But I'd like to ask about -- 2 parts of that, 1 quite old, 1 very new. The older part is how you're thinking about the relative positioning of and development of pharma versus Revit?
And the newer part is how you're thinking about what seems to be multiple opportunities to connect the world Lab technology into various parts of Autodesk, your data models, tandem pharma, et cetera, how you're thinking about that.
And then secondly, as a follow-up, it's sad but true that you're going to be discontinuing the disclosure of direct and indirect percentages. So maybe take the opportunity to talk about your thinking of the role of the channel, the opportunities and priorities that you're setting for the channel from here and then perhaps also for the Autodesk store.
That sounded like 3 question, but I'll treat it as 2. All right. First off, let's talk about the relative trajectory of former versus Revit. As you know, our industries evolve over time. Even with rapid technological changes, projects go on for months to years. There's a lot of complexity, older projects over their lifetime often go back on previous releases and all the things associated with that.
So there's a rate and pace of technology absorption that's kind of unique to our industry. So when we look at the trajectory of Forma and Revit, there's a couple of things that are really important. One, forma and the whole stack around farmer from design to make is going to be very much focused on the cloud and AI-enabled tools. Everyone is going to have access to the workflow tools, the agentic layer, that's the Autodesk's assistant, but some of these deep kind of model -- foundation model-driven workflows are going to be built into pharma and already are.
Revit is going to benefit from all the workflow enhancements associated with, like I said, the agentic layer of the Autodesk assistant, but it's also going to be tightly coupled to the workflow with Forma. And that's always part and parcel of how we think about things. We want to bridge the 2 worlds for our customers, so that as they go through their technical transition over many years likely, they have a clean path between these products and these products work together in a clean and powerful way throughout that whole transition.
And it's very important to us, but look for a lot of the model-based genic features to show up in forma the assistant based workflow genic layer will absolutely work for cross forma and Revit.
Now when you talk about World Labs, look, we're very excited about that investment. And we're excited to work with a deep technology company that's focused on something that we feel is really important. World models are important for physical AI because of their ability to spatially reason, reason about physics and also respond to real-world changes because of their awareness of what's going on in 3D.
We see this as a fun foundational kind of horizontal technology that will power lots of solutions. It's starting in worlds that are associated with games and media entertainment, but there's so much more there, Jay. It will go deeper into initial architecture design, it will end up going into areas associated with digital twins, with factory automation, robotics, all of these things associated with that.
So we're partnering them to bring that technology first into the media and entertainment space and kind of create workflows between Marble and our tools. But over time, look for us to engage more deeply with World Labs and connect their technology with our technology in all sorts of interesting ways, just like we do with the large language models today.
And the last one, okay, that's right. 3-part question. The direct, indirect piece, okay? So yes, you're right. We're not going to disclose that split because most everything is coming in direct to Autodesk now. It's an agency model. We're capturing things directly, and I think it's important to recognize that.
So in terms of the channel incentives and the things that we're doing to change things that we're doing the exact same thing with the channel that we're doing with us. We're focusing the channel on new business creation, going after new accounts, going after expansion in existing accounts. Our channel is compensated that way now. Renewals are compensated lower. New business is compensated higher. Our sales force is compensated that way.
So we have tight alignment on new business growth, both from new accounts and expansion between our sales force and our channel. And as a result, that will drive more of these numbers to higher as time goes on.
Our next question come from the line of Adam Borg from Stifel.
Awesome. Andrew, obviously, you hit on AI in the prepared remarks and kind of the moats that you all of that to have. And of course, AI has been on all of our software mines of the late. But I'd like to just take a step back and when you speak to customers, where exactly are they in their AI journey? And what exactly is that they want audits to help them ways on this front?
Yes. Look, the customers are -- especially in the GC and engineering community, they're exploring AI pretty aggressively right now, trying to understand what it can do and how it can help them. Absolutely, they want to see the complexity and time of creating a model to be reduced over time.
But really, one of the things we're working on very closely with them is wrangling data. and bringing data together in intelligent ways so that they can actually get insights and action things in an agentic way on top of complex data flows. And that's one of the areas where we engaged with a lot of customers. That's why you see engagement on platform services and people extending their environments and building, frankly, on top of our building very complex life cycle workflows on top of our APIs in our environment. So that's an area of strong engagement right now. .
That's great. And then maybe as a quick follow-up for Janesh. Back at the Analyst Day, we talked about consumption mix of total revenue, I think, in fiscal '25, that was 17% any update you have for fiscal '26 and how we should think about this consumption-based mix over the course of the year?
Yes, Adam, I'd say it was about similar. And just as a reminder, when we talked about this at Analyst Day, we said that EBAs were roughly 15% and the pure usage based, which is largely flex that was roughly 2%. So in the aggregate, it was about 17%, and that was for fiscal '25 and fiscal '26, I think, was roughly similar. That's what we saw here in the year.
Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Tilton of Wolfe Research.
Huge congrats on a very strong end to the year. I have 2 questions. I'll ask them at once. My first question is obviously, you can't help but notice that the revenue growth guidance for this year is starting at a higher point than you started the guidance for last year. Could you maybe walk us through some of the puts and takes for revenue growth maybe actually finishing the year above what you grew revenue last year?
And then maybe my follow-up to that is in regards to Saket's question, when we weigh all the puts and takes that you discussed around the conservatism in the guidance, we put an equal sign after that. Does that equal guidance that is more conservative this year than last year, less conservative, similar conservatism? Just what's the answer to the question of what do all the puts and takes mean for conservatism this year versus last year?
Josh, this is Janesh. I'll give you a single answer to both of those questions, which is, overall, when I step back and think about fiscal '20 -- we were very pleased with how the business performed. And you saw that across the quarters. That strength reflected the broad momentum that we've got and strong execution across the entire portfolio. The current year guide primarily reflects the prudence of the near-term go-to-market optimization.
And that impacts billings in the early part of the year with the flow-through to revenue over time. Ultimately, remember that the new transaction model and the go-to-market optimization are really both designed to improve our long-term new business capture. That's been the core thesis that we've shared before. We remain confident in it for the long term, but we are staying disciplined about what we assume in the near term.
Our next question comes from the line of Jason Celino of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
I have 2 questions. Maybe the first one for Andrew. It's an AI question, sorry, but it's not about competition or moat. But maybe a scenario in which AI actually works in architects and civil engineers become efficient and so efficient that these customers don't need to grow headcount, how much has the industry grown head count historically? And if that's able to be applied to Autodesk growth? And then what happens in a scenario where the AI efficiency is what we kind of think it might be how might that affect your future growth opportunities, if that makes sense?
Yes. No, that absolutely makes sense, Jason. So first off, I just want to make sure that you understand in our industry, we have a fundamental capacity problem. There is not enough capacity in the ecosystems that we serve to build everything that needs to be built and rebuild everything needs to be rebuilt.
When capacity is sucked up in one area, it takes away from other areas. So remember, there's this underlying capacity probably out, not enough money, people, materials to build and rebuild everything.
When you look at the way we're moving forward, we absolutely want fewer people per project because we want our customers executing more projects. There's plenty of demand for projects out there. So at a kind of a task-based automation level, right, the kinds of things that you're seeing us do right now around speeding up modeling activity and things like that, that's kind of improving the core value of the [ seats ] software.
And we don't expect seats to go away anytime soon. There will be a solid core of seats, but the task-based automation is going to add to the value of that seat. That seat is going to get more valuable as we enable one person to execute on more aspects of a project. So again, it's fewer people for projects, more projects executed at the task-based level and at a seat-based level.
The important thing to recognize -- wait, there's something else here, okay? I wanted to talk about the workflow automation a little bit, Jason, because as we move into workflow automation, basically with the agenda layer of the audit assistant, we're actually monetizing the project now, not just the task that individuals are doing, but they hold disciplines across the project.
As you know, we already deliver project-based pricing around construction. We deliver site-based pricing and consumption-based pricing. -- we're going to monetize more of that project activity through consumption as we reduce the number of people are working for project will monetize other aspects of the cross disimplanation to the project. And that's important to recognize because that expands our TAM.
And the last piece, and if you have a follow-up, that's fine, is around the systems automation. When you get to the level of systems automation, you certainly help with the individual and the project, but you also get into the wallet of the person paying for the project, the owner.
And that puts you in a position where you've actually expanded your TAM deeper into the actual kind of total spend on the project, the total spend on the product, what the end user or the owner or the operator wants to get out of that product. So multiple avenues for us to monetize agentic AI across that entire process from task workflow to system.
Interesting. Yes, maybe we can explore it in another instance, but yes, it seems quite incremental. And then my one follow-up for Janesh is quick. It sounds like Q4 benefited from some better linearity. Maybe is it possible. I understand like what happened where it were some deals from Q1 closed earlier in Q4. It's just when I look at the implied Q1 guide ex currency, ex model transition benefit looks like it's deselling by 4 or 5 points. So curious if there was any details on that. .
Yes. Jason, I'm happy to provide some color there. Q4 was a very strong quarter, as you noted, and we're very pleased with that momentum.
In terms of the exit rate of 14%, there's 2 factors that I'd call out. First half, for fiscal '27, recall that we've got this near-term impact to billings that has some impact on revenue, not only for the full year, but it has some impact on revenue growth in Q1 itself. So that's something to consider. A
nd also, Q4 benefited from lapping an easier fourth quarter from the year ago period. So that's also something you need to adjust for when you look at that 14%. But overall, when I look at our momentum, and I look at the underlying strength of the business and the improvements we've made in the go-to-market model, we feel very good about where the business is today.
Our next question comes from the line of Bhavin Shah of Deutsche Bank.
I have 2 as well. I guess, first, either Andrew or Janesh. I think you guys have been pretty clear about the continued need to optimize the sales organization and changing up the incentives with the partners. And I know you talked this an account with your guide. But maybe can you talk operationally, what are you guys doing to help mitigate any impact that might have any disruption there? How do you make sure that renewal activity is healthy as you kind of incentivize new business? .
Yes, I'm happy to take that. We -- when we made the changes to the partner compensation plans for fiscal '27, that was for the partners that are operating in the new transaction model. And just as a reminder, this has all been part of our broader plan around incentivizing partners to focus on more new business, and it's really been a core element of our overall new transactional model thesis.
And so the change that we made was to increase the incentives on new business and reduce the incentives on renewals starting fiscal '27 with the goal of keeping the total dollars unchanged. And as part of that, we did -- we were aware that there might be opportunity for people to think about the timing of transactions, and we did put operational guardrails in place with the partners to try and avoid that kind of activity.
And so we actually saw those work quite effectively. There are some early renewals that happen every year. But here in Q4, those were not remarkably different than what we typically see. They were not a significant contributor to the outperformance in the quarter. And also, as you know, early renewals don't even impact revenue. So we really didn't see any impact from pull forward early renewals associated with that activity.
Got it. And maybe, Andrew, look, as you have a conversation with customers this quarter, particularly your larger EBA customers that are looking to expense Autodesk for multiple years, what are the types of things that your customers are asking you to help solve that might be different than what they were maybe a year or 2 years ago? And how is that helping inform your product road map into the future?
Yes. So look, as we've moved more across design and make and deeper into each aspect of those, customers are really kind of asking us for classically calling convergence. They want us to kind of stitch the glue together between those things. They want fast feedback between a design decision and a make decision between make decision and a design decision and they want some kind of agentic layer that helps them sort through the noise and helps them get to what's right, what's wrong and how do we quickly focus on the thing that needs to be changed so that they reduce downstream risk later.
That's the kind of things we're digging into. That's why people are investing more and more in what we're doing because of the way we've connected design and make together across the whole life cycle.
Our next question comes from the line of Joe Vruwink of Baird.
Great. I ask a long-winded question, so I might have ask 2 separately, but I wanted to start with Autodesk platform services. It's certainly being put to good use now. within how a lot of customers are thinking about AI projects. And I specifically wanted to ask about the new monetization strategy you've launched around customers opting into their intended API use when you think about just how those bundles are being priced, are they priced initially to drive adoption, so we might not see like a discrete uplift factor you're calling out in FY '27. But if you do your job that might very well contribute to growth in, let's say, FY '28?
So API monetization is very much specifically targeting machine usage of our IP. So someone that's doing a lot of 24/7 compute and access of some of our more complex APIs. We actually have customers that do that. Remember, when they call an API, they're not just pulling a piece of data, they're actually calling some functionality that sits on our cloud.
And some of our customers have been doing fairly sophisticated things running these tools over and over again through large periods of time. So we're targeting monetizing that machine usage. And frankly, in Q4, we already had some customers lean in and pay up on the consumption model around API usage that was driving a lot of value inside their accounts. So positive early signs on that.
But remember, there's not a lot of customers doing that yet. We're just getting ready for that future where people are driving a lot of machine usage. We don't want to get in the way of the people running regular usage, adopting, integrating and using our APIs in ways that are not a genetic or machine driven. So that's where we're at right now, and we're already seeing customers kind of engaging with us on some of these areas of deep machine execution.
Okay. And that kind of gets to my second question but a lot of your larger customers, they already have in-house development teams with AuditoCenters of excellence. I'm just thinking about the AI risk narrative that customers can go and build whatever they want. Well, you kind of allowed them to build a lot of what they want, but it's all complementary to Autodesk. Does that change anytime soon? Or are you actually seeing this whole strategy drive usage into your kind of mainstay products. And so it ends up kind of lifting all boats, if you will. .
Yes, it's absolutely the latter. What we're seeing is the customers are leaning into using these APIs to actually build solutions that they might have used behind the firewall solutions for in the past. And that's true in both the AEC base and the manufacturing base kind of old behind the firewall, kind of rigid, inflexible implementation, they're kind of dying I like to call them my next dead thing working.
I used to talk about files being dead thing working now behind the firewall implementations and complex rigid systems with Dead things working. And I think our customers are exploring our APIs and our IP in really elastic ways to try to build solutions on top of what we've built so that they can kind of do things that they used to bring in large vendors to do with complex back-office implementations on our stack, which is lifting the rest of our stack up with it.
Our next question comes from the line of Ken Wong of Oppenheimer & Company.
Andrew, can you talk about the go-to-market optimization that you're putting in place in '27, the commission changes, the direct sales restructuring, like how much of these actions were originally in the blueprint? How much of it is because observations from '26, whether it was execution or the really strong results help inform these particular changes?
Yes, Ken, for the most part, these were part of the original blueprint, right? We knew that we had a series of goals we wanted to accomplish in terms of driving go-to-market efficiency. We knew that we were highly focused on renewal optimization, renewal automation, reducing overlap of resources on renewal activities so that we could more efficiently bring in the renewal dollars, and we knew we wanted to shift money to new business development and new business acquisition. So these were really basically baked into our thinking from the get-go in terms of how we were phasing out our go-to-market optimization.
Got it. Understood. And then, Janesh, just a follow up on that. In terms of the 7% reduction in force, how should we think about the reallocation of those resources? I'd assume a few people have done math and would have assumed a little bit more on the margin profitability side, but it looks like it's reinvested in the business? .
Yes, Ken, we guided to 75 basis points of improvement year-over-year, and that's on the back of very strong outperformance in fiscal '26. That reflects both the underlying operating leverage and also the savings from the restructuring -- and as you noted and as we mentioned when we announced the restructuring, we are making planned investments back into the business as well.
And then also, as a reminder, we've got roughly one additional point of headwind from the new transaction model. So that's something else to factor into. And then finally, I'll just point out on the overall operating margin is that we've also reflected the prudence that we embedded in the revenue guide. We reflected that as it flows through to the operating margin as well. So that's something else to factor in.
Our next question comes from the line of Alexei Gogolev of JPMorgan.
Andrew, in some of the recent comments that you made, you were talking about the upside from data centers. I was wondering if you could talk a bit more where you think this upside could come from the design centers increasing seats or are there new products being sold, new design deals being built my thinking is that some of those projects are quite penetrated among the customer base. And all these well-known architect teams they probably already have out of this. So where would this uptake come from?
Yes. The data center projects are driven by very sophisticated owners. So a lot of what's happening is that the owners are buying more of our suite to manage the design and the execution of these projects. And that's actually getting deeper into the supply chain. We expect the demand for data centers and tools for data centers to continue in several years from now. .
But remember, when that demand shifts, it opens up capacity for other types of projects that come in, like there's lots of infrastructure projects in the U.S. that I guarantee you are being stalled by the fact that capacity has been being consumed by data center work right now.
But the owners are driving a lot of the adoption of technology, and they're looking at the design through make cycle. Like I said, they're very sophisticated operators, and they buy very sophisticated tools and they go deep into the process across our entire stack.
And Janesh, very quick question on free cash flow. So you mentioned that there will be a restructuring charge, partially offset by cash tax benefit from BBVA. So the net effect of the cash movements they seem to be somewhat immaterial for fiscal '27. But does that mean we should see a step up in free cash flow margin and free cash flow conversion in fiscal '28?
One of the important things to keep in mind about '28, Alexei, is that our federal tax payments will begin to normalize from fiscal '28. So you just need to factor that in discretely.
Our next question comes from the line of Tyler Radke of Citi.
Yes. Thank you very much. So just a follow-up on sort of the underlying growth. So obviously, there was some upfront benefits and billings linearity benefits exiting this year. But as we think about that drop-off implied in the guide, can you just help us understand how much is sort of driven by the go-to-market changes in that restructuring?
And I guess, specifically, like what are the biggest risks this year that you didn't maybe necessarily see pan out in Phase 1 of the restructuring. And then are you thinking about sort of the data center contribution similarly for this year? Or should that be an incremental tailwind just given we're all seeing CapEx numbers go up into the right?
Yes. Tyler, this is Janesh. Maybe I'll take that. So a couple of thoughts on the 1% for Q4 and comparing that to the Q1 growth rate. As I mentioned earlier, there's the 2 things to keep in mind. One is that the 14% laps a really easy fourth quarter from last year. So that's just something that you need to account for. It's naturally a higher number than you saw in Q1, Q2 and Q3 of last year.
And then if I -- the other factor is that there is an impact to revenue growth in Q1 from the go-to-market changes that we have assumed. The reason that the difference between this restructure and the prior 1 is that the earlier restructure that we had about a year or so ago that focused primarily on non-selling roles, and most of those were in marketing and customer success and sales operations.
In this restructuring, as we mentioned, when we announced it, the majority of the impact is actually in customer-facing sales roles. So when you have that, there's always a natural level of disruption that happens associated with that, and that's just something that we needed to discretely call out and consider here in the guidance. And then I'm sorry, what was the second part of your question?
Yes. It was just around the -- obviously, the data center as an end market has been strong. Like how are you thinking about that for next year? Is that going to be a sort of a greater percentage of your end market or business?
Yes. It's -- we've been very happy with the momentum we've seen in data centers for a few quarters now. But as Andrew said just a couple of minutes ago, for us, the way we think about this is our industry is fundamentally faced with capacity and productivity challenges. And when demand shifts to one part of the industry, if for any reason that demand erodes then the capacity shifts elsewhere.
So we think of it in the aggregate and think of it as a shift more than anything else. Data center, the business has been great. We'll continue to see how that contributes to the business in fiscal '27. We saw some strong business close here in fiscal '26 by way of demand from -- for cloud from customers that are building out these data centers. And then longer term, that ultimately translates into an opportunity even for operations, which we've talked about externally before.
Okay. Great. And then just a quick follow-up for Andrew. Post the World Labs investment, are there sort of other partnerships and investments that we should be expecting you to make? Or do you sort of feel like that sort of has you covered at least for now, obviously, a rapidly evolving market .
Yes. Look, it is a rapidly evolving market. In terms of big partners that we'll be engaging with World Labs is a pretty significant one, but look for us to lean into the operations space in an interesting way, very similar to what we did in construction following a very similar playbook so that we can kind of move quickly and start to turn that opportunity into even a greater life cycle opportunity for Autodesk, moving from like months to years of engagement on projects to decades. .
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Turrin of Wells Fargo.
Just one for me, apologies for being on mute. Just the manufacturing segment accelerated to now above 20% growth. Can you speak to what's driving the strength there? And I'm curious if it's all correlated with some of the emerging markets commentary that you're making? Or just any other just kind of supporting details you can provide there?
Yes. Overall, what I'd say is manufacturing continued to perform well for us. The make business in the aggregate performed well. You saw that with 23% growth, which includes construction and infusion. Construction revenue actually accelerated during the quarter. some of the trend, the underlying trends that we've seen earlier in the year by way of the strengthened demand, those continued.
We continue to focus on our strategy of continuing to drive multi-seat adoption in manufacturing accounts. And then we also continue to see strong adoption of some of the features like we talked about the auto constraint feature and provided some statistics on that. So we're seeing great adoption there, too. Those are some of the things I would call out.
And ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for Q&A today. I would now like to turn the conference back to Simon Smith for closing remarks. Sir?
Thank you, Latif, and thanks, everyone, for coming along. We look forward to seeing many of you over the coming weeks. If you have questions, please just ping me or the Investor Relations team, and we look forward to catching up again next quarter. Thanks very much.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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Autodesk — Q4 2026 Earnings Call
Autodesk — Q4 2026 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: +19% YoY (reported & in konstanter Währung); Beitrag des neuen Transaktionsmodells ≈ $137M; ex‑Modell +14% YoY.
- Billings: +33% reported / +30% cc; Beitrag neues Modell ≈ $185M; ex‑Modell +32% cc.
- Margen: GAAP Operative Marge 22%; Non‑GAAP Operative Marge 38% (+120 Basispunkte YoY); Restrukturierungsaufwand $100M.
- Cash: Free Cash Flow Q4 $972M; Jahresrückkäufe $1,4Mrd (Q4: $333M), Verwässerung reduziert um 2,1M Aktien.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Plattform & AI: Fokus auf Cloud‑Plattform, Autodesk Platform Services (APS) und agentische 3D‑AI; Data+Context+Expertise als Wettbewerbsvorteil.
- GTM‑Optimierung: Letzte Phase der Go‑to‑Market‑Umstellung abgeschlossen; Ziel: effizientere Neukundengewinnung und margenstärkere Skalierung.
- Marktkonvergenz: Konvergenz von Design, Make und Operate (z.B. Forma↔Revit, Construction Cloud) treibt Cross‑Sell und TAM‑Erweiterung.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- FY‑Leitwerte: Billings $8,48–8,58Mrd; Umsatz $8,10–8,17Mrd; GAAP OM 26–28%; Non‑GAAP OM 38,5–39%; FCF $2,7–2,8Mrd.
- Risiken: Kurzfristige Disruption durch Vertriebsrestrukturierung (implizite Vorsicht in der Guidance), erwartete Cash‑Restrukturierungsauszahlungen $135–160M.
- Sonstiges: Modelltransitions‑Effekt fällt (Q1 ≈ +3,5pp Tailwind → FY ≈ +1,5pp); US‑Bundessteuern FY27 vorauss. nicht signifikant wegen F&E‑Regelungen; SBC <10% Umsatz.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- AI‑Moat & LLMs: Diskussion über Integration von Frontier‑Modellen mit proprietären 2D/3D‑Modellen; Management betont Daten‑/Kontext‑Vorteil als Differenzierer.
- GTM‑Impact: Analysten fragten nach Auswirkung der Kommissions‑/Partneranpassungen und wie Renewals geschützt werden; Management nennt operative Guardrails und Fokus auf New‑Business.
- Produkt‑Traction: Nachfrage nach Details zu Forma vs. Revit, World Labs‑Investment, Data‑Center‑Momentum und API/Consumption‑Monetarisierung; Antworten signalisierten laufende Cross‑Produkt‑Integration und frühe Consumption‑Signale.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Starkes Quartal mit deutlich über Guidances liegenden Kennzahlen und robuster FCF‑Generation. Langfristiger Thesis‑Play: Plattform + agentische 3D‑AI expandiert TAM. Kurzfristig bleibt Vorsicht angebracht wegen Vertriebsrestrukturierung; Guidance reflektiert diese operative Vorsicht.
Autodesk — Barclays 23rd Annual Global Technology Conference
1. Question Answer
Okay. Excellent. Well, hey, good morning, everyone. Welcome to day 1 of the Barclays Tech Conference. My name is Saket Kalia. I cover software here. Really honored to have the team with us here from Autodesk. We've got Mike Haley, SVP of Research; as well as Simon Mays-Smith, Head of Investor Relations. We've got about 30 minutes together. Let's take the first 20, 25 minutes to go through -- let's go through some fireside chat for the first 20 or 25 minutes, which I know is going to be fun and then we'd love to make it interactive. So any questions that you've got, just pop up your hand and we'll get a mic around.
So with that, Mike and Simon, thank you so much for being with us here today. Simon, why don't you kick us off with the safe harbor?
We may make forward-looking statements during the course of this presentation. Please refer to our SEC filings for information on risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements.
Absolutely. Now we can talk. Well, listen, guys, thanks a ton for coming. A lot of great stuff to talk about here with Autodesk. But maybe, Simon, just to level set for us before we dive in with Mike, can you just recap a few of the most important points you wanted us to know coming out of the last call, just so that we're all on the same page.
Yes, and perfect segue. It's really sort of 3 things. First, the business is performing pretty well, both in absolute terms and compared to almost all of our competitors. Secondly, we gave some talking points really, but what things to think about for next year and those are basically divided into 3 buckets. One is that we will continue to think about macro and potential disruption from sales and marketing optimization when we set guidance in February.
Secondly, that we will have headwinds from the new transaction model to margins, which is why we said the path to fiscal '29 goals would be nonlinear. And thirdly, we reminded people just on the math of the new transaction model -- sorry, the switch to annual billing transition has given us a tailwind to billings growth free cash flow growth in fiscal '25 and '26. And obviously, that process is pretty much done by the end of this year.
So growth in billings and free cash flow will be normalized -- more normalized in '27 than it has been in '25, '26, all those things we said before, so that's the second thing. And then the third thing is just banging the drum that we are years ahead of our competitors in AI, thanks for the work that Mike and others in the company have been doing, and we're pretty excited about it.
Absolutely. That's a good summary and there's a lot to dig into there as well. But Mike, maybe to start with you. This is your first Barclays tech conference with. Hopefully, the first of many.
First of many.
Yes, absolutely. But maybe for those of us that are meeting for the first time, can you just give us a little bit of a brief background on yourself and your mandate in your current role?
Yes, sure. Sure. So in my role, I lead up Autodesk's research. So Autodesk research is around about a 300-person organization in the company. Who -- we are the only organization inside Autodesk fundamental mandate is to say 5 to 10 years ahead of the company, right.
So our job is to derisk technologies in a safe, quick rapid environment and to find new investment opportunities. So we are doing everything you can imagine from AI to robotics, to new forms of user interfaces and across all of our industries, architecture, manufacturing and media, right? So we have -- that's why we have a significantly sized organization.
Now coming to Simon's point, coming out of that work, we started doing AI work in my lab, in 2009, and we've been gradually expanding and growing that. In 2018 is when we created our AI Lab, which is kind of like our own deep mind kind of organization, right? Where we're doing very, very deep work, not on generic AI that everybody else is working on, but on AI that is specific to geometry, to shapes, to structures, to products, to buildings, in other words, the things our customers are building. So that's where we've been laser-focused now for 7 years.
So what you're now beginning to see from us is the other part of my job, which is leading our AI strategy across the company. So I lead all of our generative AI work. We have a large cross company investment in this right now. We've been heavily focused on taking this technology that we developed in the lab and bringing it to market right now. We announced a bunch of that at our Autodesk University Conference this last year, which I'm happy to share later. But it's a really exciting moment for us.
What I'll also just mention is that the cycle time these days between research and product is shrinking. I've been doing research for a long time. It could often take a decade for this new technology. It can be a matter of 3 to 6 months now. So the role of research in actually developing product and getting it out to market is becoming different, which is a pressure I'm feeling and -- but it's a good thing.
Two things to add, sorry, which are important. That time to market is a process and that muscle takes time to build. And actually just putting that together, building on that expertise is one of actually our barriers to entry and what it's going to take time for our competitors to replicate it because building that research breadth and depth and then making it work faster is hard to do.
And second one is that centralization is critical. A lot of companies are letting go 1,000-flowers across the company, We're doing very efficient AI invest, not focused investment as well. So having a centralization of focusing the resources behind it is very important.
That is. That is, That cycle time, in particular, something that I hadn't thought about. Maybe just to build on that a little bit, though, Mike, and maybe to dig into some of the individual areas of Autodesk's business. I want to start with the architecture piece. Of course, anchored by your leading tool Revit, maybe the high level question I want to ask is, how is generative AI going to change the daily life for an architect in your view, if at all?
Yes. No. Look, I think it's going to be a radical change. Is it all going to arrive at one night? No, it's not. But I would break it into sort of 3 categories of change. So the first one is we've been pushing this idea of sort of outcome-based design in architecture for a while, which is really about thinking of what you want the ultimate product to be at the end of the day, I want it to be low cost, I want it to be low carbon. It has to exist within this existing city infrastructure.
There's all of these broader mandates that are known at the beginning of a project, but it's hard to actually compute had to actually use those in any meaningful way at the beginning of a project. It's much easier to simulate and everything later on to make sure it complies to those and that's often too late. So AI is able to help people early in conceptual design, right, that the beginning of creating a new structural building or infrastructure to understand the impact and the goals that you want to go after. So that's the first thing.
The second thing is the actual way you operate and interact with each other in the architecture space. This might be an architect working with a customer for example, who is trying to understand what a building might look like a new foyer in a hotel, what's this going to look like? Or it might be working with engineers and they're sharing information with each other.
The whole architecture and building practice is renowned for it being difficult to communicate with people. It might be due to different representation of information or different skill levels of the people you're talking to. AI is beginning to eliminate that. It's beginning to be able to produce rendering instantly of what the architect is talking about or take the structural engineers information and automatically transform it into the architecture information.
So now they too can talk to each other much like a language translator. That's the second one. The third one we see is really around what we call automation. So at least 70% to 80% of any design work. And this is not just true for architecture. This is true for manufacturing as well. It's not creative stuff. It's doing pretty much repetitive kind of tedious work, like, for example, producing plans, like 2D actual blueprints. You go to a construction site, there's still somebody walking around with size rolls of paper, right? Nevermind the iPads.
So producing those is not a creative endeavor because the 3D model already exists, but it's tedious. It takes weeks to produce those. Let AI produce that for you. So there's a whole set of workflows that are going to -- just going to literally become automated overnight because they just don't -- they're not creative banks. The time wastes effectively. So just those 3 alone, you can imagine how those play out across architecture.
Yes. That's super interesting, Simon, maybe to follow up for you on that point. I mean in application software, we've all sort of debated about kind of seats and value, particularly this year. Maybe to Mike's point, as Autodesk sort of enhances that productivity of an engineer of an architect, how do the -- how do you think the economics here could change? I mean could there be fewer seats, but maybe more value that Autodesk earns? Curious just in general how you think about that?
Yes. So the way we're sort of thinking about it is on the sort of seat size, we think that the seat-based model will be around for a long time for the foreseeable future. So think about it as sort of access to the kingdom sort of thing, sort of base layer of functionality. And that will be driven by really 2 things. One is that there is more work to do than there are people available to do it in our industry.
So if you go and speak to our local Department of Transportation, ask them how much work they have to do, how much money they have to do it, and you'll see there's a huge mismatch between those 2 things and then multiply that across the economy and across the globe. So there is much more work to do than there are people available to do it.
So not -- there's pressure for more people, not less people that just isn't the resources for those people. And secondly, as we expand into adjacent verticals, our whole strategy is to connect workflows end-to-end in the cloud. So as we expand into construction, as we build our business and operations and maintenance and similar manufacturing, similar in media entertainment, we are adding new people and seats under our ecosystem.
So our addressable ecosystem is actually expanding over time. But in addition to that, as we build our AI business and deliver more value to our customers, so as we talked about at Investor Day from task automation through workflow automation to system automation, the amount of value that we can deliver to our customers will significantly increase. And I'll talk a bit about that in a second and also the marginal cost will increase.
And so there will be more consumption pricing just naturally because of that to capture that value and also to reflect the marginal cost from compute of doing that. The value that we deliver really has 2 elements to it. The first one is around the machines can do stuff. And I guess that's the other important point is as you move up that value chain, the lead consumption will be a machine rather than a human being because human beings just cannot handle the complexity of the models get bigger and bigger basically, where the machines can.
So machines bring 2 new types of TAM to us. The first one is that they can do stuff that humans can't so they can. To Mike's point, they can see stuff in the conceptual design phase that 2 years after construction, a human being just would not be able to conceive of and to bring that value into the process in a way that humans cannot do. So that is new value we can deliver to the customer that we capture through consumption pricing. And the second way is that machines create new monetizable time because they work 24 as a day, 365 days a year. They don't sleep, they don't go on vacation. So it is essentially creating time that doesn't exist today. So new value, new times, new TAM to us, capture with consumption.
That's interesting.
And sorry, just another thing, which you didn't ask but is important is that the consumption will be some form of metering. To be honest, we don't precisely know what it is. It could be some form of token. It could be some form of value delivery. It could be some form of API monetization. We're not quite sure.
What we do know is that Flex is basically built as a sort of universal front end. So we can plug in any sort of metering system on the front end of Flex and then have at the back end, essentially deliver a consumption experience through that. So a lot of the work we've been doing over the last few years has been getting us ready for this.
Yes, absolutely. That's really interesting in terms of how to monetize time and how that might become a bigger vector. Mike, maybe from just a product perspective in architecture, what can customers leverage now in terms of generative AI from Autodesk? And to Simon's point, just around sort of the different industry clouds, do these customers eventually need to move to Forma, right, in order to eventually kind of gain the those capabilities?
So it's actually surprisingly a little known fact. We actually built an early AI tool into some of our software more than 10 years ago. We have something called Construction IQ which sort of -- yes. So the reality is there's actually been a bunch of stuff for a while. Our Innovyze water products, have a bunch of AI in them for doing flood claim analysis and all of these kind of things. So this is all over the place within the products today.
Now what we are doing, what we launched at Autodesk University this year is our new assistant, Autodesk Assistant, which is now available across all -- it's becoming available across all of our products across the industries, but it's specifically in things like Forma and Revit and these kind of products, right? That is enhancing your experience across a multitude. It's the agentic sort of environment, right. We're doing a bunch of stuff.
Now that is also being enhanced by the work that our team has been doing that I mentioned in the beginning. So what we also announced at Autodesk University is our neural CAD for buildings. And that's what I was referring to earlier on in these large foundation models to be building that can actually think in terms of buildings. So they're not thinking in language, they're thinking in terms of building, right? So they can compute buildings, you can interact with them and they can literally create structures and things for you, right?
Now what we did is we showed that available in Forma because that was very much part of the sort of conceptual design workflow that I was talking about before, but rapid exploration, that kind of thing. But you can expect to see these features -- many of these features also beginning to appear in products like Revit, as well because, depending on where they are in the life cycle, like I said, some of these are like automation features if they relate to documentation generation or deep design development, they're going to be inside Revit. If they relate to conceptual design, there will be inside something like Forma.
Yes, absolutely. I want to move to construction, right? So we talked about architecture, right, the next piece, of course, right? And Simon, maybe it's for you. I mean, picking up off of architecture and moving to Autodesk Construction Cloud or ACC. Can you just remind us what you've said on just the growth rates of that business? I feel like it's been very healthy and certainly reflecting market share gains. Maybe that related question then would be why do you feel like ACC is gaining market share.
Because they're awesome. The -- I mean, the short answer is it's the fluctuation of the strategy and it's working, which is that we put in place a bunch of acquisitions a few years ago. We replatformed it on to build. We're doing the same thing in precon at the builders the site business -- we then extended our relationship with our large integrated design build companies at the high end of the market. We've been building the on-ramp and precon which is a bit that connects design with construction.
And then we let up our channel a couple of years ago to go into the low end of the market. And what we talked about at Investor Day and at AU is when also launching a sort of much more easy-to-use version for the site business as well over time as well.
And what that is then slowly doing is squeezing into the sort of middle bit of the market, which is where some of our vertical competitors operate a bit. And so what you see the result of that, and also we're rapidly iterating as well and getting better, and therefore, we have reaching site future parity and then future superiority is we are -- where we're coming head-to-head for greenfield business, we're winning more -- much more than we're losing.
And then also beginning to get into some of the renewal business and some of our competitors as well. So that's quite fun, too. And then also then replicating that across the globe, adding in new applications like pay apps to build out the ecosystem and expect us to do more of that over time as well. So in terms of growth, we don't precisely split it out.
And actually, as we integrate the construction business more tightly with the design business because that's our strategy. It doesn't make sense to talk separately about the design and construction business. It is a connected workflow end to end in the cloud. But as a rough proxy, the growth of the make business is the best rough proxy you can see externally. And in terms of new customer additions, obviously, we're continuing to add a nice number of new customers too and certainly better than the -- a number of our peers.
Yes. Absolutely. I certainly shows. Mike, maybe just on that point, I mean construction, meaning out in the field, right? Like it's such an intense workflow, right, just in terms of the communication, all the changes that are happening, maybe a similar question we talked about with architecture earlier, but you kind of think about the opportunities for leveraging AI in PC?
I mean, again, I can mention Construction IQ, right? There was a tool that we realized nearly 15 years ago that we could understand the patterns of behavior for subs and start to have -- we used to go at the weather report, you arrive at the construction site every morning and it tells you where you need to put your attention on the construction side, people loved it, right? That was an early tool. This is pre the sort of deep learning era we're in now.
Now what we're seeing is that -- just like you said, there's so much information produced in the average construction project, but just waiting through getting an AI that can actually help you focus on what you need to focus on bring summaries, to detect changes, to predict issues that happen. This is where we focused on right now. So much building on everything that Simon said all these tools, all this platform that we've built out.
This gives us the sort of data nexus, if you want to now apply AI to begin to sift through that, to give you what you need. So that -- our customers are loving that. When we show them just simple integrations of language, large language models and vision language models into that. that can go through a bunch of material and say, it looks like that picture is a leak in the basement. Something's going on, I found this other document that was published at around about the same time, you might want to look at all these things together. Just a single occurrence like that can save the company hundreds of thousands of dollars. So just being able to bring AI on top of that massive amount of data that is constantly changing, huge opportunity.
And I just want to connect 2 things that Mike said which is that -- which is essentially the AI within a vertical, a silo and the value that's what he was just talking about, but also what he said earlier with former in the conceptual design phase is essentially what AI can do is bring what I call good enough simulation much earlier into the process. So the way I think about it is it means that you start off pointing in the right direction much more, much more precisely, which means that you then avoid problems later, which cost you money and cost you time.
And so if you're just in a vertical silo, you will never be able to do that. Whereas if you can connect the data with AI in the cloud using it and then use AI to make those work and those systems -- automation, that's really what we're talking about. That's also -- that's when I'm talking about creating new value, that's some of the things we're talking about. The Holy Grail here is something called constructability. When you're designing the software needs to understand what is constructible and how to make it constructible and that's our north star.
We talked so much about product and AI. I think one of the things that is helping with this, right, is actually the agency model shift, right? Because now it creates such -- so much of a closer tie-in between Autodesk and the end customer, right? Obviously, the partner is still very important, but I think there's a little bit more of a direct connection between Autodesk and the customer.
And so I'd love to shift to this topic a little bit and maybe start with you, Simon, because I think we're getting into the later stages of that shift. Maybe the question is just for some of us that are kind of fine-tuning our models, how should we sort of think about that revenue benefit as we go into next year? And of course, I don't expect you to give a numerical answer exactly, but what are some of the breadcrumbs that you've given as we think about sort of that underlying growth rate of the business, which I think has been pretty healthy, plus whatever mechanical items might be on top of that.
Okay. So just to sort of press on what you said the way you because pointed to the changes that we've been making over the last few years and with apologies to some of our long-suffering shareholders who've traveled with us through these changes. But the reason why we are -- one of the reasons why we are years ahead of our competitors in AI is not just because we've been doing a bunch of work on the model is because we're doing a bunch of enabling work to enable us to do it at scale without blowing a hole in our margins, basically.
And 2 of the key components of that are going more direct to customer, which is, as you said, the new transaction model but also or partly into the new transaction model and also building a sizable and automating the back end of a consumption business. And if you don't have those 2 things, in addition to a subscription mechanism, then you're not going to be able to do AI, profitably do AI at scale.
And so I know it's been painful to do, but it's one of our causes for optimism the reason that's cause for optimism that very few of our competitors have done any let alone all of those things. and they're going to have to do all of them, and they're going to have to do them quickly. Otherwise, they're going to be in trouble. So that's one of our causes for optimism that we've done those hard things and have already done.
As it relates to sort of just numbers, we haven't precisely said. So we've told you that by fiscal '29, the difference between our goal of 41% and stripping out the new transaction model is about 400 basis points. And you know that we've already -- by the end of this year, done 300 basis points of that headwind has come through by the end of fiscal '26. So there's 100 basis points of headwind to margin still to come. And just math because of the way the contrary revenue, as you know, flows through into sales and marketing, a big chunk of that will come through next year.
So that will allow you then to estimate what the margin headwind is next year and then if you gross it up, that will enable you to do some math around what the revenue tailwind is for next year. So that's probably the easiest answer -- the way to answer the question. We haven't given any underlying guidance for next year. What we have said, just to repeat what I said at the beginning, which is that we will be mindful of what impact the economic cycle could have on the business next year, and we will be mindful of the potential disruption from our sales and marketing optimization when we set guidance next year.
Absolutely. I think that's very thoughtful. And of course, maybe bringing the topic of margins back a little bit. I mean, Mike, I think Autodesk went through an optimization exercise of its workforce earlier this year that -- I think part of that exercise was to enhance resources and kind of growing parts of the business like generative AI. So maybe the question it's a bit broader is what are the areas that you want to be investing in, in '27? As you think about that quicker product cycle?
Giving away too much.
Understand.
No, look, so we've begun the journey in investing in platform several years ago, as you guys know it. And that has been where we've been putting a lot of our money, and that's where we're going to continue putting investment right? The platform is becoming increasingly more important in this world of -- you'll be seeing these agentic workflows that have appeared in this last year. If you don't have a platform agentic workflows are meaningless because the agentic workflows literally require a platform in order to function.
So for us, permitting to all of these agent-based architectures and offering agent things, we've been able to respond to this really quickly because we had a platform. We had 180 completely separate products, there's no platform behind it, it would have been tough, right? So continuing to invest in platform is going to become important.
Underneath that, though, data, of course, our data systems, if you don't have proper data flows, none of the stuff works. And it's the non-sexy stuff, but you've got to get this kind of stuff. Its foundation. Our customers expect it said we've been working on it. We've made incredible progress powering a lot of the AI stuff that my teams are doing. And then, of course, the AI stuff. So I mean, what you will see next year is increased investment in AI all the different platform aspects and then specifically around the sort of agentic ecosystem as well. You see a lot of investment on the -- certainly on the technology side.
So just to talk a bit about data and why that's important and how hard it is if you have on-prem data versus cloud data and all accessibility.
Yes. So I mean, there's sort of 2 aspects to making AI work, right? One is the sort of data side and one is the actual physical infrastructure side you need to run AI. On the data side, our customers put in an enormous amount of data into the Autodesk ecosystem, which is fantastic. So we get to provide their data back to our customers to learn from their data, provide services to our customers, do all this kind of work directly and make it very, very easy for them.
So that's one part of making the data equation work. So when we standardize data models that makes that flow of much, much, much more easier. On the -- but not all of our customers' data is necessarily in our cloud either. So this is where our APIs and our platform becomes incredibly important to the they can still leverage our tools without necessarily having to commit to putting everything in that the data is still flowing through our platform.
So getting that entire data ecosystem right, both in the cloud from a sort of standardized architecture and then also providing these APIs is in -- so that's what we've been putting in place. So that's the sort of data side of that. On the infrastructure side, the other thing we've been doing is spending a good chunk of our time on the AI side is actually building out all the infrastructure for a large-scale AI training and then, of course, for large-scale inference.
As we deliver these things, that's where you see your cost obviously climb because that's proportional to transactions and users, right? So we're in Amazon House, all of our stuff is on the Amazon architecture. I was at Amazon Reinvent just 2 weeks ago. And we are doing things on Amazon that nobody is doing right now, certainly in our space. because we are able to scale these models, we are able to train them at levels that even just 3 years ago, we couldn't imagine being able to train things sufficiently. But it's been a journey. We've been on the 3-year journey now to really get this infrastructure in place now.
So now the good news is we have it in place, which is why you're going to start seeing more and more AI models come out from us, not because we're suddenly inventing more, but because we've actually got this infrastructure that enables us to just train more models as we go.
So that's the front end of the research getting -- coming down, then the productizing of it, right.
Definitely a theme in both of your answers in terms of, hey, we've done a lot of the hard work that a lot of our competitors have.
You got to be early, right?
Absolutely. Yes, absolutely. For sure. Simon, I want to go back to the model, right, and just maybe just to put a bow on the margin discussion. One of the things that, frankly, I've struggled with a little bit as I think about the model is kind of the shape of margin expansion between now and fiscal '29, right? You mentioned the target of 41%. And as you said, as Janesh said, that path should be nonlinear.
But he's also said that fiscal '27 should really bear the full brunt of the new model, which, of course, implies lower margin. So I just wanted to ask how you kind of thought about it because I kind of thought about the revenue impact should sort of be incrementally less next year. And therefore, the margin impact will be incrementally less. But I just want to make sure I tie out my thinking with how --
I think the -- your understanding is what we intended to communicate, which is the impact of the new transaction model is cumulative. So by definition, the big impact, when you finish the transition from the pre-revenue cost into the sales and marketing cost, that is when the maximum impact we will be largely done with that. I mean it will continue to build.
The transition will be largely done by the end of the year. So in terms of absolute number, it will be the biggest. But in terms of the increment year-on-year, that is much smaller than it was in '27 than it was in '26 versus '25. So I think you're both correct in your understanding in how we work, but I know there's been a misunderstanding. Yes, it's the increment that people care about, and that is smaller next year.
Okay. So maybe to summarize that, I mean, it seems like the dollar impact of the transition really I mean if I use the word peak, right, it should really kind of peak next year in terms of the dollar impact, but the incremental margin impact. To your point, it's been cumulative, right? So we should be thinking about -- understood. Correct.
So the peak incremental is this year and then the dollar is next year.
Understood. Understood. Very clear. Maybe I want to just to ask Simon last modeling question, then I want to wrap up with Mike. I mean just to shift to billings here, Simon. I mean we'll be finishing the invoicing transition, I think, in Q1 of '27. So it sounds like we should see still billings pretty healthy through Q1. But I think with long-term deferred, only kind of mid- to high single digits of total deferred at the end of the year. Should there be anything that really drives the difference between kind of underlying revenue and underlying billings growth going forward? Or should those 2 kind of starts to approach each other?
I mean the short answer is yes, is that once you get rid of the noise, the new transaction model and the billings transition to annual billings, yes, billings and revenue growth should start bearing much more relationship to each other. You then get the usual noise around different cohort sizes and a bit of FX in there. But substantially, thank God, billings will become much less -- well, everything would become much less noisy.
Correct. Absolutely. Well, listen, in the last minute that we've got left, Mike, I've got a fun question for you. I mean just -- as we think about that cycle time is a really interesting point that I haven't thought about, right? Which is just the amount of product development that you could be doing over the next year. When we're sitting here on the stage in a year from today, what are some of the milestones and the innovation that you want to be talking about as we look back on calendar '26?
Yes, yes. So what I want to be able to do is look across our industries and have the actual designers, the architects, the engineers understanding what AI tools actually look like in the future -- because the problem is today, most engineers and architects go and look at ChatGPT or Gemini and go, "Oh my god, you're going to make a product with a big green button that says make a building. I'm going to put it in a prompt and it's going to do that."
Believe me, no architectural engineer wants that set and nobody wants that. In fact, it doesn't work because these things are way more complicated, as you can imagine than that. So -- but what's happening is nobody is yet producing the tools, but we are now beginning -- beginning to produce those tools.
So if we're sitting here next year, I would love to have the sort of suddenly have this vibrant ecosystem, much like we have in the public around things like ChatGPT, but in this case, it's not ChatGPT. It's a bunch of incredible AI features they're enabling architects, engineers and designers to start creating the future world in a way that they've never been able to before. And they're leaning into these tools because they're not replacing their jobs, they're making them more efficient, they're making better products at the end of the day, and they're building on that sort of success. It's fundamentally transforming the mechanism of those industry. That's where I want to be in. It's a big goal, but that's where I want to be.
It sounds like it will be a fun year, though. Well, with that, I couldn't think of a better way to end. Mike, Simon, thanks so much for being with us here today.
Thank you. Appreciate it.
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Autodesk — Barclays 23rd Annual Global Technology Conference
Autodesk — Barclays 23rd Annual Global Technology Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus KI: Autodesk positioniert sich als Vorreiter in branchenspezifischer generativer KI (Bau, Fertigung, Media) mit einem ~300‑köpfigen Research‑Team und einem AI‑Lab (seit 2018).
- Produktisierung: Forschung läuft deutlich schneller in Produkte über (neural CAD, Autodesk Assistant); Ziel sind agentische Workflows in Forma, Revit und ACC.
- Finanzrahmen: Der Wechsel zum Jahresabrechnungs‑/direktkundemodell normalisiert Billings/FCL; kurzfristig entstehen Margen‑Headwinds.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Plattforminvest: Priorität auf Plattform, Datenflüsse und APIs, damit agentische Workflows über mehrere Produkte funktionieren.
- Monetarisierung: Sitzmodel bleibt Basis, zusätzlich geplante Consumption‑Monetarisierung (Metering/Token/API) über Flex als Frontend.
- Bau & Ökosystem: Autodesk Construction Cloud gewinnt Marktanteile durch Replattforming, Akquisitionen und End‑to‑end‑Workflow‑Strategie; „Constructability“ als Nordstern.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Produktnews: Neural CAD für Gebäude demonstriert; Autodesk Assistant wird produktübergreifend ausgerollt (Forma, Revit, ACC‑Integrationen erwähnt).
- Margen‑Update: Zielmarge 41% vs. ohne neues Modell ~400 Basispunkte Unterschied; ~300 Bp bereits bis Ende FY26 realisiert, ~100 Bp verbleibend.
- Infra‑Setup: Intensive Investitionen in Training/Inference‑Infrastruktur auf AWS; Skalierungsfähigkeit als Wettbewerbsvorteil.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Kurzfristig steht die Aktie unter Druck wegen des Transaktionsmodell‑Effekts auf Margen; mittelfristig bietet die Kombination aus Plattform, proprietärer Datenbasis und frühzeitiger KI‑Produktisierung deutliches Upside‑Potenzial durch neue consumption‑basierte Umsatzströme.
Autodesk — UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Okay. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Day 2 of the UBS tech conference. It's great to see everyone in the audience. For this session, we have Autodesk. So we have Andrew, who is the CEO; and Janesh CFO. So Andrew, Janesh, thank you so much for being here.
Thank you for hosting us.
Perfect. And before we dive in, in case you have any questions, you can submit them through the app, and I'll try to take a few of them at the end. But with that, Janesh, I know you have a big speech that you'd like to give.
It a very important PSA data. So we may make forward-looking statements during the course of this presentation. Please refer to our SEC filings for information on risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements. And now that we all feel so much better protected back to you.
Well done. Well done. Okay. So maybe to kick things off, you guys just reported last week, strong 3Q results. There was a nice upward provision to the 4Q guide. So maybe you could just talk about the drivers behind that momentum and how we think about some of those demand trends going into next year.
Yes. Maybe I'll just kick us off Taylor. So overall, Q3 was a really good quarter for us. We felt that the momentum from the first half continued very nicely into the third quarter. We saw continued strength in many areas, in data centers and industrial and infrastructure. Those are, again, continuing teams that we had. Overall, the team executed well. We saw great strength not only in AEC, but if I look at it from a geographic perspective, we saw strength in different parts of the world, particularly in a lot of emerging countries.
Also based it out as a highlight. So the quarter played out really nicely for us. Our go-to-market execution has been -- and the optimization of the go-to-market has been progressing nicely as well. And all of that allowed us to then have a nice healthy beat across the board in both revenue as well as the profitability measures.
And that allowed us to raise guidance across the board for Q4 and the rest of the year as well. So, so far, I think that's played out really nicely. The important takeaways for us really around that consistency of growth and the diversification that we've built in the business over the last several years -- and the go-to-market transition that we've made has -- that's all helped us build a business that we think is very resilient for the future.
And so we're excited about next year. The go-to-market optimization is ongoing, and that's something that we will naturally consider when we think about fiscal '27 guidance when we get to that point as well as the macro. But overall, we felt pretty good about Q3 and how the rest of the year is lining up.
Perfect. Yes, let's talk about that resiliency because I know the big question that you guys got from investors is around the potential growth durability. So Andrew, I know that there's been numerous transitions over these last several years. So in terms of where Autodesk stands today and whether or not they're positioned maybe better than they have been in the past seize a lot of these emerging growth opportunities. Can you comment a little bit about that?
And on the durability question, I know there's a lot of questions around there's been products. They've been in the market for a while. Is there still sufficient runway left? What are your thoughts there?
Yes. Yes. So we have been through a lot of transitions. All of these are intended to modernize our business. We've been very intentional about creating a face to the market for Autodesk that looks like a modern SaaS AI provider. We've successfully done that. We're ahead on executing consumption algorithms.
We've changed the way -- the relationships we have with our partners. All of these things are fundamental things that allow us to kind of accelerate the business into the future. When you look at the business moving forward, one of the things that Janesh highlighted was the consistency, right? And there is kind of a strong core consistency in our business. Fundamentally, our business is highly capacity constrained, our customers' business, in particular, right?
There's not enough existing capacity to fulfill all the demand for what needs to be built or rebuilt in the world, both in AEC and manufacturing. So that capacity problem is one of the things that we're primarily focused on over the long term. And it's the idea of allowing our customers to execute on more projects with fewer people for project and actually bringing per project cost down, but increasing the portfolio of projects getting executed.
Now if you look at the durability of our revenue that core basis of capacity, that's not going anywhere. That goes back to the consistency in our business. That core base isn't going anywhere. Our customers need to have that capacity to execute on what's out there today and in the future. What they need is incremental capacity. And that incremental capacity is going to be added -- everybody says agents, I say digital humans, I don't know which one is better.
But we're going to be adding incremental capacity through automation. And that capacity is going to come along several vectors. One, let's just look at construction right now. Construction still has a long tail of execution here. We've got personas and construction that we've hit. We've hit field execution. We've got preconstruction planning. We've got resource manager. We've got a whole set of personas that we can hit in construction that are going to be durable growth opportunities for us.
You look in manufacturing, there's a growing shift to the cloud in manufacturing. Fusion is arguably the fastest-growing application in its space. The durability of that opportunity in the mid-market of manufacturing in Europe and the U.S. is very strong. There's going to be continuing cycling from new applications in that space. And then you look at infrastructure. Infrastructure is not going anywhere. And the backlog and infrastructure projects is huge. So we're going to be rolling out in that area as well. So if you look at what we're doing for our customers, we're rolling out new technology to increase their capacity. It's going to be durable over years to come and just kind of play into the consistency of our business.
Perfect. I want to talk about some of the AI opportunities and infrastructure ones. But before we get there, Janesh, maybe to throw this question over to you because you've talked a lot about the potential for durable growth as we look ahead. But then on the last earnings call, made comments about the macro uncertainty and the potential to continue a guidance philosophy that embeds a conservative approach. So could you maybe talk about when you look into the future and the growth drivers that give you the most comfort in being able to sustain growth, what are those? And secondly, what are you trying to get through to the audience in terms of the messaging around 2027?
Yes. I think the starting point for our confidence for next year is this year's performance. And over the last couple of years as well as this year, we've had just a remarkably consistent growth that we've delivered on an underlying basis when your net LP affected the new transaction model.
So that's the starting point for -- as we think about growth for next year. And then at the Investor Day that we had in October, we laid out a number of areas where we continue to see opportunities for us to drive growth. Construction is one. Fusion is another one, infrastructure. And some of these things have been delivering growth for us this year, and we see those as continuing into next year.
We talked about adjacencies like operations that you'll get into over time. So all of those things give me confidence in the underlying momentum that we -- and strength that we see in the business. The main messages I wanted to make sure that investors understood coming out of our earnings call, there were twofold. Number one is that we see a consistent growth pattern in the business. But second, just a reminder that our go-to-market optimization is not yet complete.
And so when we get to that point in fiscal '27, the approach that we took this year guiding prudently held us in really good stead. We still have a lot to execute on the go-to-market optimization next year. The macro will be uncertain. So we will take a similarly prudent approach when we think about our guidance for next year as we get to fiscal '27. In terms of exactly what the underlying growth is and exactly how we think about the specifics on go-to-market optimization and so forth, we've got work to do on that front until we get to that point, but those are the broad takeaways.
Perfect. And Andrew, let's go back to what you were talking earlier about being able to address capacity constraints with AI. So there's a lot of -- there's a number of exciting AI initiatives underway at Autodesk, whether that be generative design, what you're doing with AI agents, MCP servers. So could you just talk about the current pace of adoption that you're seeing amongst your customers? And when do you think we'll see industry-wide production use of AI.
Yes, you're actually seeing it already. And as we said at our Investor Day, our AI strategy has kind of three stages. We're starting with task automation, which is just basically making day-to-day productivity easy for our customers. It's very protective of our business. It provides a lot of customer delight. Then we're moving to essentially workflow automation, connecting disciplines together, automating the workflows with them. And then basically with systems-level automation, we're taking workflows and automating multiple workflows to provide systems level solution.
So progressively, over time, we're going to be delivering more and more value into the ecosystem. If you look at the adoption today, we're super focused on making it easy for the customer to adopt AI. We're not trying to throw tools out there and say, "Hey, isn't this a great thing figuring out how to use it." What we're doing is we're tackling specific problems. What we did with Fusion, though it's kind of down in the weeds, but what we did with the constrained automation tool and Fusion is a great example of that. It's a very labor-intensive thing that our customers do, but now we're automating it 2.6 million constraints automated so far to date.
And the acceptance rate is above 60%, which is very high for any kind of generated feature. Those kinds of things, you're going to see more and more of those coming out, and they'll get adopted very quickly, because we've specifically designed them to problems the customers have today or areas of bottleneck. So we're focused on some of the bottlenecks. Some of the things we're rolling out next year will be focused on bottlenecks as well.
And then what you'll see is as we move into workflow and systems level automation, you're going to start seeing us monetizing some of those things differently. Task-based automation would the customers are just going to get it.
Workflow automation system, I mean, we're going to start monetizing those in consumptive ways over multiple years. So our goal is to make sure we deliver things that are easy for the customer to use, understandable and provide value quickly. That's how you drive the adoption, and we're seeing it so far. .
Yes. Let's talk about the monetization strategy because you guys introduced API-based pricing around the platform services. So could you elaborate why when you spoke with your customers, why did this pricing model make the most sense? What is the overall customer reaction been to that? And could this be something as needle moving to revenue as next year? Do you expect this to take time? What's the pace around that?
So API monetization and MCP monetization, they're kind of related, right? And essentially, what you're monetizing is machine usage of our IP, our products or some of our cloud capabilities. To date, some customers, very few could run a suite of our products, construction cloud, Revit 24/7 and execute on real workflows, basically creating their own digital human in the process.
We're going to monetize that moving forward, and we're also going to monetize connections to our APIs through MCP servers and other types of cloud APIs as well. That's just the way things are shifting as machine usage becomes a larger component of the capacity creation for our customers. Today, it's a small number of customers that do that. So don't expect anything to move the needle suddenly. But over multiple years, more and more customers are going to be having machine usage of our products rather than kind of human usage. And that's going to be how this capacity shifts around from the human-based capacity to the digital capacity.
Yes. Makes sense. And how important is the data layer in all of this? Because when I was at Autodesk University, it seemed like there was a greater emphasis on platform services than maybe in the past -- and -- which makes sense, right? Because if you think about AI, these agents, they need to have access right to all the information internally, it's -- it makes a lot of sense in that regard. But how big of a catalyst could that be? And then a second part to this, could that actually be a catalyst for cloud migrations to form a Fusion, Autodesk, Construction Cloud.
The short answer is yes.
Yes.
No. Look, as you noticed Autodesk has moved from a design to design and make company, which, by the way, increases the number of personas we touch. We're going to -- you're going to see us move to an operate company as well. So it's design, make, operate. the number of personas that cut across that entire light is very large. What's the glue, the data flow.
The data flow is the glue from the design process through the entire kind of preconstruction process or manufacturing engineering process, all the way to where you cut metal or build a building all the way through to operations. So the data layer actually provides the fluidity across all these various personas and allows us to kind of automate workflows between personas.
And actually automate entire outcomes across all those personas. So that's going to be a big part of how we get there. That's why you heard the customers talking so much about it, because they are aware that the data is the unlock. So -- in the past, we had lots of proprietary data formats. We're embracing lots of open formats to make sure that people are using our platform to manage those data flows, and we're using those data flows to automate and create the digital capacity. So it's a big deal, and it is an unlock.
Yes. Do you -- are you starting to hear that appetite increasing with your customers in terms of realizing that cloud is important for AI? Or is it still very early days?
Oh, look five years ago, we really didn't -- 5, 6 years ago we didn't really have a SaaS native compound or business. Now if you look at what we've done with Construction Cloud Fusion, we're 20% round of our revenue is SaaS native. It's growing rapidly, growing high double digits, it's doing quite nicely. So customers are realizing that if they want to get to that future, they have to embrace SaaS as part of that. Otherwise, the data flows aren't as easy to manage, because you're trying to connect lots of behind the firewall silos with various other places.
You've got people that are outside your firewall. When it's all in the cloud, you can connect to everything and bring it back and federate it across multiple things using the cloud as a hub for that. Customers realize that and as a result, adoption has gone up.
Perfect. You mentioned the opportunity a little bit earlier, so I'd love to dive deeper in on that. At the last Analyst Day, you broke that out in the TAM, I believe, for the first time it felt like there was a bigger emphasis on the civil and infrastructure opportunity. I know you mentioned that on your last earnings call. Could you talk about what's driving that focus on these opportunities?
And am I right in the read that this feels that there's more emphasis behind it than maybe there was previously. And that could be a question for Andrew and then Janesh, a follow-up to that. How do you think about this opportunity as it parlays into the durability of Autodesk Construction Cloud and the greater AEC opportunities .
Yes. So operations is a natural extension of what we're doing with BIM and modeling and manufacturing, especially around mid-market factories. Mid-market factories need to operate like big factories. So the little factories and the little machine shops need to have the same level of automation and control that large factories have. So there's a huge opportunity as people reshore and redo the supply chain around operating progressively smaller and midsized factories.
So we're very much focused on that as well as buildings. So operations is a natural extension. It extends into a life cycle that's well beyond the design and make process. Design and make process plays out over years, asset management operations plays out over decades. Right? So it's a big difference for us. And the unlock is really clear. Tandem is the first play into this with the digital twin technology. We're going to extend that.
Look for us to attack that market the same way we attack construction. Six years ago, we didn't really have a material construction business. We stood up a division. We did some acquisitions of new tech stacks, accelerated that. And over a 5-year period, we built a highly successful, fast-growing business. That's the same path we're going to take with operations. And it will increase the stability and consistency of our business long term.
Perfect. Janesh.
And I just think about the growth longer term across design make and operate. Operators, obviously, a new area for us and adjacency we are going to get into. So I think that plays out into the revenue model over a much longer period of time. In the near term, if I think about design and make, and you see the numbers from the earnings release, and Andrew mentioned a minute ago that the underlying businesses like Construction and Fusion continuing to maintain and deliver strong growth for us, roughly growing at about 2x the overall design business or 2x the overall rate of growth in the business, give or take a few points in any quarter.
But we see that continuing. Because fundamentally, in those markets, we are not dam constrained. Construction is -- has a long way to go in terms of adoption of digitization. Andrew talked about the mid-market opportunity in Fusion where, again, we feel like we have plenty of headroom for growth. So I see that make part of the business continuing to sustain growth for next year.
Perfect. Yes. And let's talk about the opportunities in manufacturing and media and entertainment. Any big initiatives going into your fiscal year 2027. And any catalyst the audience should watch out for in those sectors? .
Yes. There's a couple of unlocks in manufacturing. One is the data management layer that sits in the Fusion Cloud. We've invested significantly in that, and it's been a major customer request in terms of taking Fusion inside of some of our accounts from say, 2 to 5 seats up to 5 to 20 or 30 seats.
So the customer has been asking for it. We've invested in significantly. That's going to be an unlock heading into next year for multi-seat accounts with Fusion. So we expect that to drive some growth. We're also, like I said earlier, very much focused on mid-market factories. And we have a product portfolio that allows people to lay out those factories, but we're also very much focused on helping them manage those factories.
And I think that's a good multiyear growth opportunity that will show some [ kernals ] of growth next year as well. Media entertainment, the shift has consistently been -- remember, we're in the high end, film. We make products for the directors and the high end. We don't make it for the consumer market in the same degree. Though we want to bring some of that technology down to the consumer market, but we make it for the high-end film and game market.
And more and more, we've been moving to managing the whole production process from the capture onset all the way through into post-processing and special effects. So we're making it easier for the customer to capture the data early, manage the process of making sure it's right and pushing it into post production.
Perfect. And then maybe switching gears to 2026 calendar year and what you're hearing from your customers as we close out 2025. Andrew, how would you characterize overall customer conversations in terms of how they're thinking about spend going next year? Do you anticipate it could be similar to what we saw this past year? Are there any opportunities for growth unlock? Any pressure points that you're monitoring closely. What are you seeing there?
In generally, the sentiment is consistent with what we've seen this year, going into next year. Remember, we have large EBA cohorts that renew on a regular basis. These are 3-year contracts, right? So we get kind of visibility of how peak customers are looking at their 3-year investment. No one is downsizing their EBAs. We're seeing expansion in the EBAs across basically all of our customers, which is a strong signal that you're going to see consistent kind of investment in technology heading into next year.
Perfect. And then another big opportunity that you guys now get a lot of questions on is just the data center opportunity. I would imagine this ties in a little bit to what you guys are talking about with operate, right, and the digital twin opportunity. Could you just elaborate the tailwinds right you're seeing around there and how meaningful that could be to the business as we look into next year and beyond. \\
The digital twin opportunity in particular.
The data center opportunity. But I would say I would imagine digital twin plays into that in the part infrastructure.
Look, with our business, our business is highly distributed across multiple segments, multiple geographies, right? And remember, I always said there's not enough capacity to meet the demand that's coming in. So whenever something is getting executed on, there's something else waiting in the queue saying, "Hey, pick me, pick me."
All right. So right now, data centers are consuming a large chunk of that capacity. In the past, there was commercial buildings, community consuming some of that capacity. That execution is going to continue into next year. But even if it starts to fall off, there's other things that come in to consume the capacity. So we don't see any concern about sector shifts from one build-out to another, but we also see data centers continuing well into next year as well.
Perfect. And Janesh, let's dive into some of the financials and some of the nitty-gritty details. So as we look into 2027, there's still a couple of moving pieces on revenue and billings. So one being we're still working through, the new transaction change. So first question for you is in terms of the tailwind that, that could be the billings and revenue growth next year, any qualitative color you could give there and how that might compare to the 600 basis points of uplift we saw on the revenue side.
And then not to throw too many questions at you. But a second piece, we get a lot of questions on billings, because you had a big renewal cohort this year. So as we look into next year, could that possibly be a headwind such that we see more of a disconnect between revenue and billings growth adjusted for FX and the model change?
Is there a possibility that billings growth could dip below right, revenue growth? Do you expect them to be more in line? Just any color you can give there, I think, would be really helpful.
Yes. On the first question, Taylor, what I would say is I realize that the whole new transaction model has thrown a lot of our metrics often. It's just made it a little bit harder for people to understand the business. But as you said, this year, that's providing about a 600 basis point tailwind to the as-reported numbers on billings and revenue.
And this year, fiscal '26 is the peak of the transition. We will still have additional tailwinds next year, but they will be a lot lower than what we saw this year. And maybe one way to think about it is the tailwinds on the revenue and billings also imply that there's a headwind on the operating margin. And so maybe one way to sort of think about this in terms of a rule of thumb is, this year, we've got about a 300 basis point headwind on operating margins.
And what we said at Analyst Day was we expect that in the terminal state that we'll be about a 400 basis point headwind overall on operating margins. So that gives you a sense of how much of the transition we are through and then you can sort of back into the fact that next year, we'll have a very modest tailwind on the billings and revenue side. And when we get to that point, we will actually spell it out for you like we did this year in terms of what the exact underlying math is and what the as-reported views will be, but you should expect it will be a lot lower than it was in fiscal '26.
And then to the other part of the question in terms of thinking about the comps on billings on an underlying basis next year, I think a big part of that depends on how we close Q4. We've got a very large EBA cohort still to close. Most of that is loaded towards January. So I think that will largely dictate what the underlying business growth is next year. But -- so it's hard for me to give you any specific views on '27. At this point in time we are working through our plan ourselves. But ultimately, you should see billings and revenue converge.
Perfect. That's really helpful. And then maybe moving to the go-to-market transition. So we talked earlier, this has been a multiyear approach. We've seen a number of these transitions. More recently, you've talked about the move to self-service. That's been a tailwind to the Autodesk store.
Next year, it sounds like there's going to be some changes to comp incentive plans for partners. So could you just unpack a little bit of that more? What changes should we expect going in next year? Andrew, that could be one for you? And then, Janesh, in terms of how we see impact to the model from those changes? Maybe you could talk through what you're contemplating there?
Again, we always said it's a multiyear go-to-market transition. The big part that we saw this year was getting the self-service ramped up, getting through the new transaction model changes. We've lapped out. We're in good shape. Heading into next year, what you're seeing is this now -- all right, let's turn that self-service around renewals and things like that into an advantage.
So the partner comp structure is changing. The amount of money we're putting in commissions into the partner ecosystem isn't changing, but how they earn that money is changing. Significantly less money is paid out on renewals, a lot more is paid out on new business generation. And that's part and parcel of how do we turn the new transaction model, the intelligence we've got about the customer, the self-service we're building in around renewals into incremental value for Autodesk in terms of getting out to those new personas we've been talking about, getting some of those new products growing in particular ways.
That's the first step of doing that. Now obviously, there will be some churn and kind of disruption associated with that. We factored that in, but that's the big change that's coming next year.
Perfect.
Yes. In terms of the model next year, I think Andrew covered the highlights already, right? For us, this has been a multiyear transition. We signaled to the investment community to our partner community, what we were doing long before we did it, and then we went ahead and did it. And so far, it's played out consistently with the way we would have expected. And there's more to be done. We signal to the partners that we're going to make the changes. Then we announced the changes in the third quarter, so well ahead almost 6 months ahead of when they actually take effect.
And so we've been very consistently telling the investment community and the partner community that this is the direction we're headed. And so that's all played out quite nicely for us. So that just underlies that consistency of execution and momentum that I talked about earlier.
Perfect. And Janesh on margin. So you have the out-year target of 41%, 45% on an adjusted basis. So can you talk through the trajectory in getting there? Because you've commented earlier that, that's not going to be a linear path. So maybe you could elaborate a little bit more on that. And then as we think about the levers to getting there, I know on the AI side, you've talked about the potential to see gross margin compression. I would imagine the offset of that is operating OpEx efficiency. So how should we think about those moving pieces?
Yes. Taylor, maybe I'll take those in reverse order. I'll just describe what the levers are, and then I'll talk about the path to getting there. So in terms of the underlying levers, the biggest one is going to be our continued go-to-market optimization. And that continues into next year. It's been a multiyear journey for us.
So -- as we said, that's been progressing nicely so far, but there's more to be done on that front. The other big lever for us is just the inherent operating leverage that we've got in the business. You've seen us deliver consistently against that this year. And as we continue to grow, the marginal dollar of revenue may not need the same marginal dollar of investments, and you will start to see some of that.
And as we get that operating leverage and realize that, it's a conscious investment decision we make in terms of how much we invest back in the business, particularly for R&D and we think about our future from a long-term perspective versus how much we flow through to the bottom line. So that's played quite nicely for us. Embedded in that is the fact that as some of these cloud-based workloads increase, they will put pressure on the gross margin. It's gross profit accretive in terms of dollars of gross profit, but in percentage terms, it does create a little bit of margin dilution and we factor that in into the 41% that we outlined.
So those are some of the big levers that we think about. In terms of the path to getting there, we've said it will be a nonlinear path. And the main thing there is when we talked about the incremental headwinds from the new transaction model on operating margin, most of that will get layered in next year. So it's more around just the mechanics of the new transaction model rather than anything underlying in the organic health of the business.
In fact, this year, it's been a good year for us when we laid out that target at Investor Day back in October. At that point, our current year view was 37%. We've already bumped that up 50 basis points, so we're already well on our way there.
Perfect. And maybe in the last minute or so that we have left, we can talk about a couple of the pricing levers Autodesk has -- so I know you guys have spoken about there's a cohort of your customer base that's sitting on heavily discounted licenses, right? There's maybe the opportunity to monetize that a bit more as we look ahead.
So could you just talk about how you're thinking about the opportunities from price going forward, how that could contribute to growth? And then also two, as you see the pricing model evolve. How should we think about that playing into the mix too.
Yes. So to start with that cohort comes up in fiscal '29, so it's a long time away. And even when that comes up, we give those customers a very natural glide path of some sort. For those of you that are thinking way out into the future already, I would not think about a step function change, but it's more of a glide path. But more broadly, in terms of pricing, we think about pricing largely as a function of value and I'll keep the response brief because we're almost out of time.
But inherently, as we deliver more value to the customers, we think about how we monetize that. That could be in the form of price increases. That could be in the form of new products. But importantly, as we think about new monetization models, particularly in the world of AI, there will be some functionality that gets delivered in the existing products for the existing prices around task automation, as Andrew mentioned.
And then as we think about more usage-oriented models, those will be more for workflow automation and system automation kinds of use cases where the value that we deliver to the customer will largely be metered differently and measured differently. So we'll use consumption-based models for those.
Perfect. So with that, we're out of time. So everyone, let's give Andrew and Janesh a round of applause, and I appreciate all your insights today.
Thank you, Taylor.
And Taylor as well. Thank you.
Thank you, everyone, for joining.
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Autodesk — UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025
Autodesk — UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kurzfassung: Autodesk positioniert sich als "design, make, operate"-Plattform mit bestätigt starkem Q3‑Momentum und Anhebung der Q4‑Guidance; Management sieht dauerhafte Nachfrage durch reale Kapazitätsengpässe in Bau, Infrastruktur und Fertigung.
- Wachstumstreiber: Automatisierung/AI, Cloud‑Datenlayer und gezielte Expansion in Operations (Digital Twin/Tandem) sollen langfristig wiederkehrende Umsätze erhöhen.
- Risiko/Setup: Monetarisierung von Maschinen‑/API‑Nutzung startet klein, wird aber als mehrjähriger Ertragshebel beschrieben.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- AI‑Roadmap: Dreistufige Strategie — Task Automation, Workflow Automation, Systems‑Level Automation; erste Funktionen (z. B. Fusion Constraint Automation) sind im Feld, Akzeptanz>60% berichtet.
- Plattform & Daten: Data‑Layer als "Glue" für Persona‑übergreifende Workflows; Offene Formate und Plattform‑Services sollen Cloud‑Migrationen und KI‑Anwendungen erleichtern.
- Monetarisierung: Einführung von API‑/MCP‑basierter Preisgestaltung für maschinelle Nutzung; erwartet langsamen, kumulativen Einfluss auf Umsatz über mehrere Jahre, nicht sofortige Hebelwirkung.
- GTM‑Transition: Weiterer Push zu Self‑Service (Autodesk Store) und veränderte Partner‑Vergütungen — weniger für Renewals, mehr für New‑Business; kurzfristige Disruption eingeplant.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Guidance‑Update: Keine neuen quantitativen Guidance‑Zahlen im Gespräch außer Hinweis, dass Q4‑Guide zuletzt angehoben wurde (Earnings‑Release zuvor).
- Finanzeffekte: Übergang zum neuen Transaktionsmodell gab in FY26 ~600 Basispunkte Tailwind auf Umsatz/Billings; für FY27 wird ein deutlich kleinerer Tailwind erwartet und eine weitere Margenwirkung (Terminal ~400 bp Headwind auf Op‑Marge).
- Partner‑Timing: Partner‑Kompensationsänderungen wurden angekündigt und früh kommuniziert; Umsetzung beginnt mit Vorlauf, erwartete Effekte sind teilweise in Planungen für FY27 berücksichtigt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Investoren: Autodesk liefert anhaltende operative Konsistenz und bietet strukturelle Upside durch AI‑gestützte Automatisierung, Plattformmonetarisierung und die Ausweitung in Operations. Near‑term Risiken: Margindruck durch Cloud/AI‑Workloads und Umsatz‑Timing beim GTM‑Shift; Watchlist: EBA‑Erneuerungen, API‑Umsatzwachstum und Partner‑Vergütungswirkung.
Autodesk — Q3 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Autodesk's Third Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call.
[Operator Instructions]
I would now like to hand the call over to Simon Mays-Smith, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thanks, operator, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss Autodesk's Fiscal Third Quarter results.
Andrew Anagnost, our CEO; and Janesh Moorjani, our CFO, are on the line with me. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, including outlook and related assumptions and on products, go-to-market strategies and trends. Actual events or results could differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-Q and the Form 8-K filed with today's press release for important risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from those in our forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements made during the call are being made as of today. If this call is replayed or reviewed after today, the information presented during the call may not contain current or accurate information. Autodesk disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. We will quote several numeric or growth changes during this call as we discuss our financial performance. Unless otherwise noted, each such reference represents a year-on-year comparison. All non-GAAP numbers referenced in today's call are reconciled in our press release and supplemental materials available on our Investor Relations website.
And now I will turn the call over to Andrew.
Thank you, Simon, and welcome, everyone, to the call. We delivered strong results today, with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share topping the higher end of our guidance ranges with billings, non-GAAP operating margin and free cash flow exceeding our expectations. We are again raising our full year guidance across the board.
As demonstrated at Autodesk University, shared during our recent Investor Day and reflected in our results today, we're well positioned to deliver for Autodesk customers and investors, even in an uncertain geopolitical, macroeconomic and technological environment. We are successfully executing on the most far-reaching transformations in enterprise software, redefining our business model, go-to-market, products and platform.
In doing so, we are making Autodesk more resilient and unlocking new avenues for growth and margin expansion. We're enhancing our products with cloud-based platforms and capabilities that seamlessly connect design and make workflows to deliver more value to our customers and expanding our addressable market opportunity. We're building a platform with a vibrant third-party ecosystem that will make our solutions more valuable, enable new monetization opportunities and make Autodesk more efficient. And we're defining the AI revolution for our industries, empowering customers with new task, workflow and systems automations and capturing shared value through subscription, consumption and outcome-based business models that blend human and machine capabilities.
Autodesk is building the future and the path to it. Our best days and greatest opportunities lie ahead. I've never been more confident in the long-term value we are creating for our customers, the industries that shape the world and for you, our shareholders.
I will now turn the call over to Janesh to discuss our quarterly financial performance and guidance. I'll then come back to update you on our strategic growth initiatives.
Thanks, Andrew. Q3 was another strong quarter. Overall, the underlying momentum of the business was similar to prior quarters and better than the assumptions we had built into our guidance range. We again saw strength in AECO where our customers are benefiting from sustained investments in data centers, infrastructure and industrial buildings, which is more than offsetting softness in commercial. Upfront revenue, the Autodesk Store and billings linearity during the quarter were also stronger than expected. Our go-to-market optimization plan remains on track and operational friction from the new transaction model implementation continues to ease.
Total revenue in the third quarter grew 18% as reported and in constant currency. The contribution from the new transaction model to revenue was approximately $124 million in the third quarter. Total revenue grew 12% in constant currency and excluding the impact of the new transaction model. Please see the tables in our press release, earnings deck and excel financials for details by product and region.
Billings increased 21% as reported and 20% in constant currency. The contribution from the new transaction model to billings was approximately $135 million in the third quarter. Billings grew 16% in constant currency and excluding the impact of the new transaction model. As a reminder, our billings growth this year is skewed by the new transaction model and by the transition to annual billings for most multiyear contracts. These tailwinds will significantly diminish next year. RPO of $7.4 million and current RPO of $4.8 million, both grew 20%, benefiting from tailwinds from the new transaction model.
Turning to margins. Third quarter GAAP and non-GAAP operating margins were 25% and 38%, respectively, reflecting year-over-year increases of approximately 330 and 120 basis points, respectively. This reflected operating leverage and ongoing cost discipline and was partly offset by the margin drag from the new transaction model. Our margin progress this year sets us up well to achieve the long-term margin goals we talked about at our Investor Day. We still expect progress towards that goal to be nonlinear, given incremental headwinds to reported margins in fiscal '27 from the new transaction model.
Third quarter free cash flow was $430 million, which benefited from the earlier timing of billings in the quarter and lower cash tax payments. As a reminder, our free cash flow growth rate this year is also skewed by the transition to annual billings for most multiyear contracts. This tailwind will also significantly diminish next year.
Moving on to capital allocation. We purchased approximately 1.2 million shares for $361 million at an average price of approximately $306 per share. Year-to-date, we have repurchased 3.7 million shares for approximately $1.07 million. Turning to guidance. I will again speak to the numbers excluding the impact of the new transaction model and in constant currency, to give you a clearer view of the underlying dynamics of the business.
In the earnings deck, you'll see that we've split the impact of the new transaction model and currency movements for our fiscal '26 guidance. We've assumed the underlying momentum of the business remains consistent with previous quarters for the remainder of fiscal '26. We have a large pool of EBA and product subscription renewals to close in the fourth quarter of the year, and we'll also have our toughest new transaction model billings and revenue growth comparisons with last year. The macroeconomic environment seems broadly stable, but macro uncertainty remains elevated, and we remain mindful of potential disruption as we continue to execute our sales and marketing optimization plan.
So we built some risk into our guidance range for the remainder of fiscal '26 and expect to again reflect these factors in our fiscal '27 outlook in February. We remain disciplined and focused on the controllable factors that drive our revenue, operating margin, earnings per share and capital allocation which are the key building blocks of free cash flow per share.
Reflecting all this, we raised our billings guidance range to between $7.465 million and $7.525 million and raised our revenue guidance range to between $7.15 million and $7.165 million, which flows through the current momentum of the business through our full year underlying guidance. The bottom end of our full-year guidance range reflects some macroeconomic risks for the final quarter of the year.
We've raised our non-GAAP operating margin guidance for the year to approximately 37.5% or approximately 40.5% on an underlying basis, which excludes the impact of the new transaction model. We've also raised our free cash flow guidance range to between $2.26 million and $2.29 million. As we said last February, utilization of U.S. deferred tax assets will mean we pay little U.S. federal cash tax in fiscal '26.
We do not, therefore, get incremental cash benefit from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act this year. Further, we now expect to buy back approximately $1.3 billion of stock, which is at the high end of our previous guidance and a 50% increase compared to fiscal '25. The slide deck on our website has more details on modeling assumptions for the fourth quarter and full year fiscal '26.
Andrew, back to you.
Thank you, Janesh. Autodesk is focused on the convergence of design and make in the cloud, enabled by platform, industry clouds and AI. We are at the forefront of convergence because we've been evolving and investing in the business models, products and platforms and go-to-market to capitalize on it. We are at the forefront of neural AI foundation models, which we are deeply integrating into our products, not as a surface level add-on, and have access to decades of digital data, enabling us to generate greater value for the next wave of AI for the physical world.
AI will enable inference across tasks, workflows and systems, which will supercharge convergence. Let me give you a few examples of our progress in the quarter. Our customers in AECO architecture, engineering, construction and operations are demanding convergence to reduce risk, increase quality and optimize costs and resource use during the design and build phase of an asset and to yield enhanced efficiency, resilience and reuse during the operations and maintenance phase of an asset. Autodesk Construction Cloud has growing momentum with owners, designers, GCs and subcontractors seeking to converge design and construction workflows.
For example, a leading global food processor and asset owner is migrating over 700 active projects from a competitive solution to address challenges with end-to-end capital project management, infrastructure owners like the South Carolina Department of Transportation will replace legacy tools with Autodesk Solutions to execute long-term plans to improve state infrastructure and resolve maintenance and resilience challenges.
Integrated design build companies like Daiwa House Industry Co. Ltd, a pioneer of industrialized construction in Japan is adopting Autodesk Construction Cloud and Autodesk informed design to connect its manufacturing and construction processes, placing Autodesk at the center of its common data environment for building systems. And general contractors like Flynn Group are migrating to ACC to unify design intent with field execution in a single data environment to improve project coordination and efficiency. These stories have a common theme.
Converging people, processes and data across the project life cycle to increase efficiency and resilience, while decreasing risk. Our comprehensive end-to-end industry cloud and platform drive convergence and extend our footprint further into the larger growth segments like infrastructure and construction that we discussed at Investor Day. All of this is reflected in our sustained strong revenue and new customer momentum in infrastructure and construction.
Our manufacturing customers are also demanding convergence to drive cost and research efficiency during the design and make process by converging product development workflows in the cloud, leveraging centralized and granular data in unified data models and embracing AI-driven automation capable of industry transformation.
For example, industrial machinery companies like Micro Matic are replacing disconnected competitive solutions with our unified Design and Make platform to connect data and workflows, which increases collaboration and drives efficiency and speed to market through component reuse and fast, reliable iterations. Machinists at an American cosmetics company will save hours per week by using Fusion for manufacturing and simulation to automate nesting, tool pass, 3D printing and programming of multi-access machines to create spare parts.
To further strengthen and scale its integrated design and manufacturing processes, total environment is leveraging Fusion's advanced capabilities in manufacturing, simulation, design and data management by unifying workflows on a single platform. The company will eliminate disconnected tools, enhance collaboration and improve efficiency across its operations.
And a French automobile manufacturer is adopting Fusion to produce electric motor prototypes after a benchmarking analysis shows the Fusion platform to complete a machining task in 12 hours, which is 10 and 15 days faster, respectively, than competitive solutions. Converge data opens up new opportunities for Autodesk as customers seek to drive efficient innovation. Fusion is driving strong growth with extension attach rates increasing and driving average sales prices higher, and we're delivering meaningful productivity gains to customers where we deploy AI.
We have continued to see success with our AI-powered Sketch AutoConstrain in Fusion. Since its launch this year, the AI model has delivered over 2.6 million constraints and has been retrained and the UX improved all along the way. The acceptance rates for AutoConstrain suggestions to commercial users have grown to more than 60%, with 90% of those sketches fully constrained.
In education. Wake Technical Community College, Kimley-Horn and Autodesk have entered a strategic partnership to prepare more than 6,000 students for high-demand careers in design, engineering and construction. This initiative will Integrate Fusion, Forma, Civil 3D and Autodesk Construction Cloud into WTCC's course work with Kimley-Horn's nationally recognized internship program. creating a direct pipeline from classroom to career. And lastly, we continue to find new ways for our customers to consume our products and services in ways that work best for them.
For example, a multidisciplinary AEC consultancy firm is using Flex.consumption to rapidly scale and manage projects across multidisciplinary teams and distributed supply chains to accelerate project delivery and reduce risk. Attractive long-term secular growth markets, our focused strategy of delivering ever more valuable and connected solutions to our customers and a resilient business are generating strong and sustained momentum, both in absolute terms and relative to peers.
Our disciplined execution is driving greater operational velocity and efficiency. We are deploying capital to grow the business, further reduce share count and enhance value creation over time. In combination, we believe these factors will deliver sustainable shareholder value over many years.
Operator, we would now like to open the call up for questions.
[Operator Instructions]
Our first question comes from the line of Saket Kalia of Barclays.
2. Question Answer
Great to see the better results. Well done. Andrew, maybe to start with you. I'd love to pick up on the theme from Analyst Day a little bit and see if you could just weigh in on sort of the seats versus consumption AI monetization debate for Autodesk. But maybe also as part of that, touch on your broader ecosystem of partners and customers. Does that make sense?
Yes, that does make sense. And thanks for that question. It's very proposed. So look, there's 3 things we want to pay attention to here. The first one is there's still a fundamental capacity challenge in all the industries we serve, AEC and manufacturing. There isn't enough current capacity to meet all the demand for what needs to be built or the supply chain needs that need to be throughput inside of both manufacturing and AEC. So we have a capacity challenge. The second -- so there's a lot of work that just needed to go to kind of create more capacity.
So the second thing, I think it's really important is, in the future, there's still going to be projects that require intensive human engagement in order to successfully execute. They're going to be more complex. But there's also going to be projects in the future where there's less requirements for human engagement, machines are going to execute more on these things. And there's going to be a balance between these 2. And the last thing is something I've been saying over and over again. Our goal is to decrease the number of people that are working on a particular project, but increase the number of projects that our customers in our ecosystem are executing.
And if you do that, what you're going to see is we're going to be capturing incremental consumption value through the things that we do by monetizing machine-based execution, providing outcomes and all things associated with that, while also still supporting the people-based work that's going to go on the ecosystem. This is equally true of our customers.
Our customers are going to be seeing their balance shift from sometimes, in some cases, billable hours to also consumptive execution through machine-based execution based on their intellectual property and their IP and their unique knowledge set. So we're all in the same journey together, but it's going to play out over time. And you're going to see us actually capturing more value and creating more capacity for the industry we need because the industry desperately needs it.
That makes a ton of sense and super helpful. Janesh, maybe for my follow-up for you. I appreciate the detailed guide for this year. I was wondering if you were able to just give us any color on fiscal '27 high level as we think about our models.
Saket, I'm happy to do that. So let me elaborate a little bit on what I said in the prepared remarks. First off, just by way of context, the business is clearly performing very well this year. That said, we've got a lot of business to close, particularly in January. The second thing I'd point out is our sales and marketing optimization plan has gone very well so far, but we are not complete with that. We touched on this a little bit at Investor Day. So I think there's still some risk of disruption next year.
And then finally, while the macroeconomic indicators have been broadly stable, uncertainty does remain elevated in the environment. So just -- we just think it's best to maintain a prudent posture on our underlying growth for fiscal '27. We are performing very well this year, and we're looking forward to the rest of the year.
Our next question comes from the line of Adam Borg of Stifel.
Just on the Autodesk Construction Cloud, it's great to hear the continued traction and even the customer coming over, migrating 700 active projects. When you think about your existing Autodesk Construction Cloud installed base, for those existing customers, how penetrated are you in terms of the projects that are already brought over to Autodesk? Any color around that and the ability to continue selling broader parts of your growing ACC portfolio, be it payments or preconstruction, et cetera, would be really helpful. And then I have a follow-up.
I really like that question. Okay. So first off, let me just start at the fundamental level, right? The reason why Construction Cloud is doing so well is that we've got this design to preconstruction through construction execution solution. It's completely unique in the industry, and it's built on a modern platform, this is not an aging platform that's going to kind of age out of what people need in the future.
It's a highly connected, AI-ready, SaaS-based platform. That's really a huge selling point for us. And what you just mentioned there, Adam, is completely true as we're acquiring new customers and penetrating new accounts and displacing competitors in lots of accounts, what we're doing is we're starting off with a set of projects. So we're not even fully penetrated in all the projects that we've executed with our customers to date.
I mean, in the accounts where we are with our customers today. So there is actually not only increased penetration that will happen over time within the accounts we have as new projects come and light up and old project sunset, but there's also additional expansion just driven by the power of our value prop.
That's really helpful. And maybe just building on the theme of converges in design and manufacturing. We talked about this a little bit at the Investor Day, but as you think about convergence and the opportunities with Fusion over time, how do you think about the PLM market more broadly for Autodesk.
Yes. So another great question, right? And I really appreciate it. So first off, remember, we're targeted the mid-market, and that's where there's a lot of growth in supply chain activity. These customers need convergence because they need this end-to-end digital productivity. And I just want to make it super clear to everybody. Most of those customers have nothing with regards to PLM. They don't have anything, all right? They may have a data management solution, they may not. Most of their work is actually done through spreadsheets and ad hoc connectivity with some of their ERP systems.
They don't have any kind of strong data management or life cycle solution. We're building a solution for those customers. And we're going to go in there and say, you can get what the big boys have and you can get the kind of control and the cloud visibility and the cloud data flow that was reserved only to a few, and they need a modern platform. They need a SaaS-based platform. They need what we're bringing with Fusion.
So that's how I look at the market. We built these capabilities in the Fusion. We're going to continue to enhance them. And we're already starting to see success with small accounts of 2 to 3 users expanding to larger accounts because we have these tools that are really hard for a lot of people in the mid-market to get and deploy.
Our next question comes from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer of Griffin Securities.
Andrew, my first question for you is a corollary to the question I asked you a quarter ago about the pace of new technology adoption. And the question has to do with something interesting you said at AU, I think it might have been a main stage, where you said as far as your customer base is concerned, that "no one gets left behind" which is an important general commitment, but what are the practicalities of that in terms of customer migration, packaging, promotions, all those sorts of things that you've done or will need to do with regard to migrating your customers in a way that you implied.
Yes. So look, we're attacking this from multiple vectors, okay? So first off, packaging is the first one, right? As you know, if you're a collections customer or Revit customer, you get the form of design application shipped with your bundle. So you're already getting something that is you're paying for the future and the present, right? So you're capturing the value right there and you're part of the ecosystem.
The other thing that we're doing is, we're also making sure that we have the CDE available to as many customers as possible. That's form of data management, and we'll talk more about that in the future, which is a really important piece of the puzzle as well. The other thing that's really important, and it needed to get airtime because you're going to see something similar evolve in the Fusion world as well as we talked about Revit is rolling out as the first Forma Connected client next year.
And what that means is what we're doing is we're tightly connecting the workflows between the feature-deep desktop product that customers use today and the evolving emerging product they'll be using tomorrow so that they can seamlessly move between these 2 products in such a way that they can get the benefit of one, while also harnessing simply and easily the benefit of the other.
And that's a really important part of the strategy as we move forward. Because the adoption does take time. It takes time for people to change these things. And we're also hyper focused, especially in the AI side on rolling out features that may not look sexy at the headline level, but are real productivity enhancers for our customers that get real adoption.
What you're seeing with AutoConstrain and Fusion is a great example of that. It's a highly adopted feature. Now explaining it to everybody exactly what it does usually requires a video, but to a customer, they get it, and they love it. They accept these things, like 60% acceptance rates. Some of the these sketches are 90% constrained. It's the kind of stuff that you're going to see us continue to roll out that really makes a difference in how our customers work.
Janesh, for you, given the revenue upside across each of the segments, could you comment on any new or incremental trends you're seeing in usage telemetry, either by vertical or geo or a stand-alone product versus collections, anything of that time in terms of the usage component that helped drive some of that growth in AEC, manufacturing and so forth.
Jay, thanks. What I'd say is the momentum in Q3 continued from the first half and the trends we saw in Q3 were similar to what we saw in Q2 as well. And you see that strength reflected in the different product lines and the different areas of the business. I touched on some of the areas within AECO, for example, around data centers, infrastructure and industrial that were all bright spots again. And you see that reflected in products as well. Similarly, when you look at the Autodesk Store and some of our emerging geographies that did well, you'll see the trends reflected in those -- the products that get sold in those -- through those routes as well. So overall, I'd say it was very consistent with what we had seen in Q2. Nothing new that I would highlight as an emerging trend.
Our next question comes from the line of Jason Celino of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
I wanted to ask about the normalized growth you saw this quarter, the 12%, again, similar to last quarter, a slight acceleration. But was there -- like what was the inorganic contribution to that normalized number? I'm just trying to understand if there was some modest acceleration than if there was, what do you think drove that?
Yes. I'm happy to touch on that. There was nothing unusual with respect to M&A activity in Q3 that affected those underlying growth rates and say, what we saw there was just the continuing momentum that we've seen in the business, as I mentioned just a moment ago, the sources of where that outperformance came from in terms of the upfront revenue, the Autodesk store and stronger billings linearity during the quarter, I think all of those played a role in helping us get to the ultimate outcome that we delivered over here. So overall, it was a strong quarter across the board. The team executed really well, and I think that's what you're seeing reflected in the numbers.
Okay. Great. No, that's helpful. And then when we think about the commentary around the EBA cohorts that you have for Q4, I'm just curious what type of behavior you've seen so far from like a renewal standpoint, or if customers are willing to engage earlier. Just curious if you have any tidbits that will be helpful there.
Jason, in terms of what we saw in Q3 was very strong engagement from many of those customers. We closed all the business that we were expecting to close. And if I think about some of the typical metrics that we have around attach rates and so forth, those all played out as we expected they would. Q4 is our largest quarter for EBA renewals and we also have a very large product subscriptions renewal cohort to close here in this quarter. Q4 is heavily weighted towards January. So there's still a lot that we need to get done. But again, the team did well here in Q3 and that momentum has continued nicely.
Our next question comes from the line of Taylor McGinnis of UBS.
Andrew, first one for you. Just on you mentioned earlier about still some elevated uncertainty out there, but it sounds like you guys are seeing some strength in areas like data centers, industrials and whatnot. When you speak with customers regarding their spending plans across AEC, manufacturing and M&E for calendar 2026 or fiscal year 2027, I guess any early insights that you could share with the group in terms of what you guys are expecting to see?
Yes. Customers aren't flagging any differences in their spending pattern, all right? I think one of the things that's really, really important to note is, one, the current momentum is going to continue a little bit. And also what the customers are looking for is they're preparing for future productivity enhancements. So everyone is investing in their digital infrastructure [indiscernible] for any changes in the demand patterns, what sector might be more important as we move forward. So most of our customers are flagging a continuation of their investment. Some areas are flagging a little bit more investment because they've been kind of maybe slow on the investment in the past. But we don't see anything changing in terms of the consistency level right there.
Perfect. And then, Janesh, maybe just one for you. On billings growth, you made several comments in the prepared remarks just about how growth has been elevated this year because of the new transaction model and also because of the larger base of multiyear billings customers, and we're going to start to lap that going into next year and see some moderation in growth.
So can you just help us unpack the mechanics there a little bit more. So as we look into 2027, could we start to see if we adjust for FX in the new transaction model revenue growth and billings growth start to align with one another? Or is it possible that we could actually see some tougher comps and maybe there's a divergence between the 2? Any additional color you can give there, I think, would be helpful.
Taylor, I'll break that into 2 parts. One is around the underlying business performance that you mentioned and the second is just the mechanical aspects of modeling the growth for fiscal '27. So first, in terms of just the underlying growth that we see in the business, we feel very good about this year. And if you look back at the last couple of years, we've demonstrated consistent growth, and that trend has continued in this year. We've also talked before about the diversification of our business across industries, across geographies and customer sizes. That's a strength for us.
And again, we saw that play out here in Q3 as well. If I look ahead, we're excited by the growth potential of businesses like construction, in Fusion, infrastructure and some of the others that we outlined at Investor Day. So overall, I think we're executing really well, including on the AI strategy and road map, and we feel very well positioned in that regard.
So if I think about the growth for the future, I think all of those things give me confidence, but also when I guide for next year, we will consider, as I mentioned, the go-to-market optimization and the macro risks that I touched on at the start of this call. And then in terms of some of the underlying mechanics, thank you for the question. I think it's actually helpful to spell out what we expect to see next year.
So to break that apart, if I think about the billings and free cash flow growth rates this year have been inflated because of the transition to annual billings for most multiyear contracts. That's a business model transition that we expect to complete during Q1 of next year. And so we expect that reported billings and free cash flow growth will start to normalize during next year.
Billings and revenue growth rates have also been inflated this year from the new transaction model for which we provide the details separately on an underlying basis. And on that transition, we expect a smaller impact from that in '27 than we had in '26. We'll also have incremental headwinds to reported operating margins from the new transaction model next year. But ultimately, as you know these are just near-term accounting effects, and the underlying business has been performing consistently well. Our goal is to try and get to as reported numbers as soon as we can. So that will be our focus in the future.
Our next question comes from the line of Elizabeth Porter of Morgan Stanley.
I wanted to follow up regarding some of the new AI capabilities like AutoConstrain, which appear to have the high acceptance rates and measurable productivity gains. The question is, are these product improvements translating into observable changes in retention, multiproduct adoption or expansion activity. And just as the platform overall delivers more value with AI, how are you thinking about the pricing power. Any sort of larger, more periodic price increases or a steadier cadence tied to just incremental AI-driven capabilities? Is that an opportunity that you look forward to?
Yes. So thank you for the question, Elizabeth. So first off, let's be very clear, this is a multiyear journey here that we're on, right? And I want to be clear that there's -- we're going to be kind of moving along with our customers here and focusing on key areas of adoption and finding levers of productivity that make a real impact on them.
We're starting with tasks, AutoConstrain is a classy example of a task within the modeling. We're going to do a lot of that. That task automation is highly protective of our existing business. And what the customers love is they see large incremental productivity increases that are not classically easy to replicate in a traditional kind of development model and feature creation model. So task automation is highly protected with the existing business, is highly retentive and we see some of that with some of the satisfaction ratings we get with some of this technology we move forward.
We're going to be moving more and more into workflow automation, as you see us move next year. We talked about some of this at AU, we showed some pretty compelling workflows between various products and across various products from design to preconstruction planning and things like that. Those workflow automations are going to ultimately offer additional monetization opportunities because some of it will be included with the subscription, but some of it will not, will be charged for incrementally.
And as the customers adopt those and as we find the right workflow levers, you're going to see us start to capture some of that value. Now as we move down the curve into systems-level optimization, those are going to capture the most value. They're further down in the pipeline, but they're also the kind of things that have huge impacts on our customers and huge value delivery, and we're going to capture some of that value.
We're going to share some of it with our customers, but we're going to capture that value. So [indiscernible] automations are highly retentive. They have retentive effects. You can see that with the way the customers are satisfied with the product and what they see in the product. The workflow automations are going to be also highly retentive, but they're also going to offer incremental monetization opportunities and system-level optimizations will offer more monetization opportunities. But this is going to take time.
Great. And then just as a follow-up, I wanted to ask on the margins where it was really impressive to see the underlying margin expansion kind of move up in the full year guide. So the question is, where are you seeing the most outsized success that's driving up the full year view? And what are the levers that are having more of an impact in the near term versus what can be more of a driver next year for the underlying margin trajectory?
Elizabeth, maybe I'll take that one. I think the underlying levers are the same near term as well as longer term. The biggest lever in terms of achieving our margin targets over the long term will be our go-to-market optimization. And on that, we've already made great progress so far, and that will ultimately further reduce our sales and marketing as a percentage of revenue.
We also have inherent operating leverage, which is something that we've demonstrated for a few quarters now. And so that shows up in the near-term numbers, and that will also be a driver for us longer term. And embedded in that operating leverage, there are a few puts and takes. To start with, on the gross margin front, we expect that cloud and AI workloads will ultimately be accretive to gross profit dollars, but they will pose a headwind to gross margin as they scale.
We think that's actually a sign of success if that happens in terms of our strategy for adoption working quite nicely. On the R&D side, as we've shared before, we will continue to prioritize investments in innovation and AI-driven initiatives, but at the same time, drive efficiency through common components in the platform. And on the G&A side, we will just scale efficiently as we continue to grow the business.
So those are some of the things that I see. And in terms of the rate of progress of getting to the 41% margin target that we outlined, as I had mentioned earlier, the path to getting there will be nonlinear, just given the additional margin headwinds we expect from the new transaction model this year. But overall, we feel we're well on our way to achieving the target, and we've already raised the current year outlook here by 50 basis points. So we feel pretty good about that.
Our next question comes from the line of Josh Tilton of Wolfe Research.
Thanks for sneaking me in, and congrats on another great quarter. Two for me. One more near term, one maybe long term. Just in the near term, I think if I look back, this is probably one of the biggest increases of the billings growth guide going into Q4 that we've seen maybe ever.
And I'm just trying to understand or maybe you could help me unpack what exactly is driving that near-term performance? And then my follow-up to that is just more longer term, the agency transition seems to be going well. I wouldn't say well underway, but I feel like it's hit maybe critical mass to some extent. Can you maybe talk to some of the levers that you have to incentivize this newly formed channel to drive better new business growth for you guys going forward?
Josh, maybe I'll start. In terms of the outperformance that we had here in the third quarter, there's a couple of sources. One is, as I mentioned, just consistent strong execution from the team, which is something that we are all very proud about. But the second is also just in terms of the guidance philosophy that we had and the approach that we took entering the quarter where, as you know, against the low end of our billings guidance, we had assumed a pretty severe macroeconomic scenario, which we had been quite transparent about and that didn't play out.
The broader macroeconomic environment was relatively stable. So I think you saw some of the benefits of that here as well. And if I think about the Q4 view on that and the extent of risk that we've got baked in, there is a little bit of risk baked in at the lower end of the guidance range, particularly on billings. But given that we've got basically just a little over 2 months here left to go in the year, we didn't feel like we needed to take as dimmer view of the macro for Q4, as we had previously taken.
And to the second part, Jason, I mean, Josh, sorry, I'll weigh in on that a little bit, okay? So there's a couple of things that we're enabling with the new transaction. One, we have better customer intelligence which is going to allow us to be more efficient with our partner engagements. The other one is, is we're working really hard to automate more of the things that are associated with renewals.
So if you look at the way we want to move forward, you're going to see us incenting the channel more on new business than on renewals, which is going to align the channel with kind of our long-term objectives. It's easier to make renewals now, so we should be paying less on renewals, and we should be paying more on new business so that the channel can build the right kind of capacity for the new business and hunt a bit more and renew in a more automated way. So look for us to continue to push that as we head into next year, tighter intelligence going into channel, more efficiency, more automation, more self-service tied to renewals and a stronger emphasis on new business generation.
Our next question comes from the line of Joe Vruwink of Baird.
I wanted to go back to the FY '27 outlook. And I guess what I really want to ask is, do you need the same level of prudence when you frame the forward outlook like you have been using. And I just sit here and appreciate that this year, you started 8 to 9. It looks like it will end closer to 11. There's something to be said about prudence, but also nothing wrong with communicating strength when it's evident. And I think you're not only seeing strength, but it would seem like next year, definitely end of stages and some transitional elements, early stages on things like consumption or cloud adoption that can contribute more. I'm just wondering if some of that factors into a different approach to the outlook.
Joe, so look, on fiscal '27, it will make sense to talk about the specifics when we are actually guiding to fiscal '27 in February. What I wanted to do today is share our overall enthusiasm for how we're executing here in Q3. I talked about some of the momentum that we are seeing and some of the factors that continue to excite me about the business in the long run and just be transparent about some of the factors I'll consider when I set guidance in terms of the specific levels of those, we'll talk about those on the next call.
Okay. No, that's fair enough. There are some good sessions from your large customers on how they've set up kind of centralized Autodesk development teams and you have different regional teams that are now building around platform services in a coordinated way. A lot more talk about how agents are factoring into what these teams are now starting to do.
I guess there's this idea still percolating out there that AI is going to make it easier for your large E&C customers, these same entities maybe just do more internally? And I guess I wanted to ask what you're seeing on this topic. And really when we see a large E&C account, talk about data sciences on staff and what they're doing, should we really think, well, Autodesk is ultimately having a role here?
Yes, you should absolutely think that, Joe, okay? Our goal is to make it easier for them to apply their IP with their data scientists to the workflows that make the most impact on their business, but our platform is going to be everywhere in this.
And the services and agents we build associated with our platform are going to be core to how they create that value from their IP, incrementally above some of the models that we build ourselves and that we deploy into their environments. We want to coordinate and work with agents they may build internally with the agents that we have and one should be augmenting the others. So look for our platform to be everywhere that these customers actually execute and incrementally build capabilities on?
Next question comes from the line of Bhavin Shah of Deutsche Bank.
Great. Congrats on the strong results. Janesh, I know you spoke about this briefly in your prepared remarks. But in terms of channel productivity, excuse me, how much time is still spent on operational elements? And when do you think the channel gets back to full productivity? And is there any kind of impact also with all the M&A activity happening with your resellers?
Yes. We continue to address some of the operational friction that our partners faced on the new transaction model. Andrew referenced that as well. I think we've made very good progress, and I think much of that is behind us at this point in time. There's a bit more to be done, but we are well on our way. We saw the EMEA partners get their first renewals here in September on the new transaction model and that generally went as we expected it would.
And I think at this point, we've tapped -- we've lapped all of the first annual renewals. So in terms of the future, we continue to focus on how we and our partners can deliver more valuable and data-driven and connected products and services to our customers. We have seen the strategy working quite nicely, particularly at the low end where many of the customers that previously used to buy from the noncontracted partners or the silver partners are now buying from us directly on the store.
And some of our larger partners are focused on continuing to build out value-added services that allows them to build more connectivity and offer better solutions to customers, which then works quite nicely for us in the long term as well.
That's helpful there. And as a follow-up for Andrew, maybe just for you, there's been some recent headlines about agents turning 2D sketches into 3D models via CAD software. As innovation continues to evolve here, what role can Autodesk play? And how are you thinking about evolving the product capabilities as agentic and copilots that turn sketches into the models continue to evolve?
Yes. I think you should assume that the level of data that Autodesk has in this particular area and the level of focus will certainly excel above anything else you see out there. We just focus where the biggest returns are right now.
Our next question comes from the line of Tyler Radke of Citi.
So the direct revenue has grown significantly. I think it was up 85% this quarter. You called out strength in the online store, the Autodesk store. Just wondering, is this strength? Is this coming in well above your expectations? And how should we just think about the mechanics of taking more business direct and potentially that being a tailwind to the reported revenue that we're seeing.
Tyler, I'd say in Q3, things worked as we expected they would. We were expecting to see an increase in the mix of direct revenue as the new transaction model continues to scale. So that generally played out the way we expected it would. And in terms of the impact of that on the model, it does affect the as-reported numbers, as you know, which was why we also provide the views on an underlying basis.
I'd say the store strength has continued for some time. A portion of that might be channel shift, but a lot of it is also just general strength we've seen particularly in a number of the countries around the world that we've talked -- where we haven't rolled out the new transaction model, we've been seeing strength in those countries as well. So I think it is a bit broader based on that.
Great. Helpful. And then, Janesh, just on the underlying growth, I know you got some questions on this, specifically as we think about FY '27 guidance. But you started off the year in sort of the high single-digit ballpark. And I think if we look at the Q4 guide, normalized growth is closer to kind of the low teens. Is that a fair characteristic of where the underlying growth of the business is today? Maybe there's some onetime revenue in that Q4 number as it relates to EBAs. Just help us understand like where is that underlying growth of the business in your view now? And I assume that's maybe a few points higher than it was at the beginning of the year.
Tyler, at the start of the year when we laid out our guidance, again, we had been prudent for a variety of reasons. It was also my first guidance for the full year as CFO, we had just done a restructuring. There were a number of other factors as well that played into that. But if I -- and at that point, I had mentioned that I viewed the business as being a consistent and resilient business. And I think that's played out quite nicely.
If you look at the growth we've seen over the last couple of years. And then if I look at this year, we've had very consistent growth across the 3 quarters of this year and that same consistency is implied in the guide for Q4 as well. So we feel very good about the way we've executed and all the irons we have in the fire to continue to sustain our momentum in the future. But again, we will consider our overall risks around go-to-market execution as well as the macro when we guide.
Our next question comes from the line of Ken Wong of Oppenheimer & Co.
Andrew, I wanted to circle back on a comment that you made about the incentive structure to partners. I realize that you guys are taking it down on renewal to incentive some hunting. Any early feedback from partners and I realize it doesn't take effect usually until February, but any early behavioral changes that you guys are noticing from the channel?
Yes, nothing pronounced, okay? No early changes. Obviously, partners always have lots of questions when we change their incentive structure. But generally speaking, they get what we're trying to do and they understand what's going on here. We're not trying to take money out of the channel ecosystem. We're trying to shift how it gets paid out. It makes total sense to them. We haven't seen any initial kind of changes in their behavior right now at all.
Okay. Perfect. And then on the VBA side, Janesh, I realize you're not expecting any tailwinds on the free cash side. Are you guys seeing an early impact on the top line in terms of kind of customer spending behavior or any customer project activity?
Nothing that I would directly attribute to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act yet.
Our next question comes from the line of Koji Ikeda of Bank of America.
I wanted to follow up on a previous question on free cash flow. And Janesh, I think you mentioned there's about 2 more quarters left before free cash flow normalization. Did I hear that right? And then beyond that, what should quarterly free cash flow seasonality look like? Is there a fiscal year example from the past that we could look at that would be a good representation of what it would look like going forward?
Yes. Koji, the comment earlier was around the growth rates that we would expect will come down. If I think about the absolute dollars of billings that we have at this point in time associated with the change in the multiyear to annual billing transition. I think that piece is done. But in terms of thinking about cash flow and providing maybe a general rule of thumb, I would say holding aside any significant discrete items we generally would expect free cash flow growth to be correlated with our underlying non-GAAP net income growth. And of course, we will call out any large discrete items when we provide guidance.
Got it. And then maybe a follow-up here question for Andrew and thinking about the AI strategy and the data access strategy for AI through MCP and API calls. How have customer usage trends been around there? And any update on how we should be thinking about any timing of the monetization opportunity with the data access strategy?
Yes. So there's actually a fairly robust use of some of our APIs by the customers. And also, [indiscernible] monetizing some of that access as well and a lot of customers are expecting that. Most customers won't be impacted by that, but those customers that are most heavily using machine-based kind of applications associated with our APIs, will probably see impacts in terms of billings associated with their usage, right? Again, the AI monetization will play out over time. The API monetization will play out over time. But MCPs and APIs are definitely another source of monetization that you'll see us pulling the lever for as we move forward.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Turrin of Wells Fargo Securities.
I'll give you a chance to summarize some of the prior comments. I think high level, the question is you're raising numbers across the board. For fiscal '26, it's not something we're seeing a whole lot of across software these days. So maybe just expand on your perspective around what's driving that and how much of that is beyond the scope of just macro and business model changes. And then on CAD, specifically, it's another quarter of standout growth 15%. So maybe touch on that segment and if there are any specific dynamics to be mindful of there as well.
Yes. I'm happy to touch on both of those. If I had to summarize Q3, I would say it reflects the consistent momentum we've seen from sustained execution this year against the backdrop of a stable macro, while on the guide at the lower end, we had assumed that the macro would worsen. So I think it's both our execution as well as the more prudent guidance assumptions that didn't play out.
In terms of the growth of the AutoCAD business, there's a few factors there. That growth is partly affected by just the mechanical accounting on the new transaction model as well. So I think that's part of what you're seeing. But also, we talked about strength in the Autodesk store and strength in emerging countries like India and LatAm and the Middle East and some of the AutoCAD strengths that we've seen comes from those countries and from the Autodesk store as well.
And Michael, I'll just add one more thing to this because I have to. We have been making some serious and important strategic decisions over the last 3 years about how our business is structured and how we move forward. You're seeing the results. All right? These are the results that we ultimately said we were going to deliver as a result of those investments and those changes. They were hard changes, difficult lifts. Now you're seeing the performance associated with those lifts.
Thank you. And that is all the time we have for Q&A today. I would now like to turn the conference back to Simon Mays-Smith for closing remarks. Sir?
Thank you, Latif, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. Looking forward to seeing many of you on the road over the coming weeks, wishing my fellow Brits Happy Budget Day tomorrow and my fellow Americans, Happy Thanksgiving on Thursday. Thanks very much, everyone.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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Autodesk — Q3 2026 Earnings Call
Autodesk — Q3 2026 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: +18% YoY; ex‑New‑Transaction‑Model +12% (New Transaction Model trug ~$124M bei).
- Billings: +21% reported / +20% cc; ex‑Impact +16% (New Transaction Model ~ $135M Beitrag).
- Margen: GAAP OPM 25% (+≈330 bp YoY), Non‑GAAP OPM 38% (+≈120 bp YoY).
- Free Cash Flow: $430M; Cash-Steigerung durch frühere Billings-Timings und niedrigere Cash‑Steuern.
- Kapitalrückgabe: Rückkäufe ~1,2M Aktien für $361M in Q3; Ziel für FY26 Buybacks ≈ $1,3B.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Strategie: Fokus auf Konvergenz von „Design & Make“ in der Cloud: Plattform-, Industrie‑Clouds und AI sollen Workflows verbinden und Addressable Market erweitern.
- AI‑Integration: Tiefe Einbindung von Neural‑AI/Modellen in Produkte (nicht nur „Add‑ons“); AutoConstrain in Fusion mit >2.6M Constraints und >60% Akzeptanz als Beleg.
- GTM & Ökosystem: Go‑to‑Market‑Optimierung, Kanal‑Incentive‑Verschiebung (mehr Fokus auf New‑Business) und Drittanbieter‑Ökosystem als Hebel für Expansion und Monetarisierung.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Guidance: Billings gehoben auf $7.465–7.525M; Umsatz gehoben auf $7.15–7.165M (Angaben im Call). Non‑GAAP OPM ~37.5% (≈40.5% underlying ex‑NTM). FCF nun $2.26–2.29M.
- Risiken: FY27‑Headwinds durch Auslaufen von Transaction‑Model‑Tailwinds, Annualisierungs‑Effekte und erhöhtes makroökonomisches Unsicherheitsrisiko; Q4 stark auf Januar‑Renewals konzentriert.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- AI‑Monetarisierung: Debate Seats vs Consumption; Management sieht langfristige Misch‑Modelle (Subscription, Consumption, Outcome) — konkrete FY27‑Zahlen wurden nicht genannt.
- Autodesk Construction Cloud: Nachfrage und Konto‑Penetration als Wachstumshebel; viele Kunden noch nicht voll projektpenetrated — Upsell‑Potenzial bleibt groß.
- Kanal & Transaction Model: Operative Reibung nimmt ab; Kanal wird künftig stärker für New Business incentiviert; Timing und vollständige Produktivität des Kanals bleiben Themen für FY27.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Starkes Q3 mit Anhebung der Guidance und klarer operative Dynamik. Kurzfristig ist Vorsicht angebracht wegen Accounting‑ und Annualisierungs‑Effekten des neuen Transaction Models sowie makro‑Risiken; langfristig bieten Cloud‑Konvergenz, AI und Plattform/Ökosystem substanzielle Wachstums‑ und Monetarisierungsoptionen für Aktionäre.
Autodesk — Analyst/Investor Day - Autodesk, Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We're delighted to have you with us. My name is Simon Mays-Smith, and I am the VP of Investor Relations. We have a great lineup of presenters for you today. We're going to start with Andrew then have detailed presentations from many of our leaders, and then we'll finish with Janesh's financial update.
We have 2 short breaks planned, and there will be a Q&A session with the entire executive team at the end. Before we start, I have 2 process items to cover. First, please enter your questions any time during the webcast in the Q&A tab. We'll get to as many of them as we can in the time available.
And second, let me share our safe harbor statement with you. I'll let you read through it. But in summary, we may make forward-looking statements during the course of this presentation. Please refer to our SEC filings for information on risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements.
Now with that, let me hand it over to Andrew to kick it off.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. 5 years ago, Autodesk embarked on one of the most ambitious transitions in our history. Many of you wondered whether a decades-old company could truly reinvent itself for the cloud era. Today, I'm going to show you that we not only succeeded but emerge stronger and more efficient than ever before.
Our business transformation is complete. Our growth momentum remains strong and steady, and we're positioned to lead our industries in the age of AI. Autodesk best days are ahead of us. And today, you'll see how we're building the future and the path to get there, unlocking our next phase of value creation for both our customers and investors.
Before we get to the main event, I want to start with a retrospective. Autodesk has been continuously evolving its business to not only get ready for the future, but to thrive in it. We led our industry to move to subscription and presented ourselves to the world as a modern SaaS provider, driving cloud integration across our entire portfolio.
We led our industry to introduce term consumption models and have built a wealth of knowledge and practices over the years on how to leverage the models for landing new business and expanding in existing accounts. We led our industry to bring consumption to the mass market, and we did this well ahead of the rest of our peers, understanding its importance to AI. We modernized our billings practices to industry standards to deliver smoother and more predictable free cash flow that you see in our financials today.
We shifted away from buy-sell models by going direct to customers to drive efficiency and unlock cross-sell opportunities that simply weren't possible before. We're building out self-service to make it easier to do business with Autodesk. We're moving to monetize API and MCP server access so that we can create value with our current and future IP wherever and however it is used. And finally, we'll offer outcome-based pricing to capture value with systems-level AI capabilities. This work will be a source of future value creation.
Beyond that, we've been at the forefront of platform and technology transitions, and this has allowed us to capture market share and enter new markets. We led our industry to cloud-enabled products, to introduce cloud-native solutions and to explore the possibilities of generative design.
We expanded our business beyond design and to make, not only making us more relevant and sticky but driving significant evolution in how our customer ecosystems function. We are leading our industry to move to granular data in the cloud and to introduce real commercial and valuable AI-enabled features and we are now delivering AI to simplify tasks, connect the entire life cycle more effectively and ultimately extend our reach into key adjacencies.
All of this has delivered a financial transformation and we're not done. To really understand what the future looks like for Autodesk in our industries, we need to go back to what I spoke about almost 8 years ago at Autodesk University.
I talked about how we were going to put AI at the center of the design and make process and enable users to communicate in real time with high accuracy about the state of a project and how it is evolving with time. I talked about how there will be a brain at the center, making sure that everyone has the right information at the right time to make a project move faster and with less rework.
Today, that future is here. Our industry clouds, Forma, Fusion and Flow are built from the ground up to be cloud-based, AI native and end-to-end. And we're doing this for all the constituencies in a project. From architects to owners, from designers to engineers, from construction to manufacturing professionals, our vision is for everyone to be connected by the industry clouds we're delivering. Today, we're going to talk to you about how we maintain this momentum, how we unlock new growth levers and how we create long-term leverage in the ecosystems we serve.
Let's start with our momentum. Fundamental to maintaining our momentum is our AI strategy. All the work we've done to transform our business has laid the foundation that will power our AI future. We're starting with task automation. We'll expand to agentic workflow automation and ultimately deliver on high order systems automation for our customers. This is not about working the same way faster. It's about doing what was previously impossible or incredibly onerous.
Along the way, we're building a completely new portfolio of IP that defines how Autodesk delivers value for the next 10 years. Beyond that, we've already built out the systems and capabilities that will allow us to monetize that IP over the same period of time. Our business will move from primarily seat-based subscription today to a blend of seat-based subscriptions, turn-based consumption and system-based outcomes that give our users options for complex and interconnected design and make options. If we look at this through another lens, to date, we're leveraging off-the-shelf capabilities and custom IP to make our customers more productive.
Next, we'll use that ever-expanding IP portfolio to solve increasingly complex workflows. And along the way, we will connect our existing desktops to our emerging AI-powered industry clouds in ways that make it simple and easy for our customers to evolve to the future over time. And while AI is an important part of maintaining and ultimately building momentum for our business, let's not forget what Autodesk is doing.
We are the leader in driving convergence. Convergence of the design and make life cycle to a seamlessly connected ecosystem on AI-powered clouds, the convergence of manufacturing methods and construction to drive greater productivity and return in the AEC market, and the convergence of digital and physical worlds, not only in the design and make process but also beyond into operating assets with high fidelity digital twins that help people immerse themselves in the live ecosystems of buildings, factories and all manner of infrastructure.
We are actively reimagining and recreating how we deliver value through SaaS and AI native industry clouds that connect the design, make and operate ecosystems in new powerful ways for all the industries we serve. Our industry clouds also work seamlessly with the tools our customers are using today, so no one gets left behind.
Denver International Airport is a great example of a customer embracing cloud-based collaboration.
[Presentation]
Now let's move on to how we unlock some of the new growth levers. Infrastructure represents a multitrillion dollar global spend category and a long duration growth vector that strengthens Autodesk role as the digital backbone of AEC. Autodesk has the opportunity to expand share in 2 of the largest, most durable sectors, water and transportation. And we're uniquely positioned with Forma and our existing tools to serve end-to-end infrastructure workflows. We're already seeing momentum with our solutions in both the U.S. and with overseas infrastructure authorities.
An example of this is the traction we've had with U.S. Departments of Transportation. We believe our end-to-end solution, modern cloud stack and lead in AI will continue to make Autodesk the provider of choice in transportation. Construction represents a massive opportunity for Autodesk. At AU, we were excited to announce the ADC's first comprehensive Industry Cloud, Autodesk Forma, which provides a unified environment for planning, design and construction. This gives our customers seamless integrated workflows that are business critical to their operations.
We're also recruiting pathways for smaller general contractors to access enterprise-grade tools, significantly expanding our addressable market. The construction industry is still at the early stages of their digital transformation journey and Autodesk is well positioned to help connect their workflows.
Manufacturing has a long history of adopting increasingly cost-effective and productivity-enhancing technology. That held true when 3D parametric modeling was introduced when the industry transitioned to the PC and when the Internet changed supply chain management. Now 2 major technology innovations are converging at once to yet again stimulate a share shift in the sector, the cloud and AI.
We are the leader in the cloud and well positioned to be the leader in this AI era. We intend to capitalize on that by reimagining design and make and the whole concept of product life cycle management in the cloud powered by AI. The market validation is already evident. We're seeing significant Fusion growth down the market. Our goal is to now unlock larger Fusion installations through a combination of disruptive pricing and business models, AI power design and manufacturing and reimagine PLM workflows in the cloud.
Now let me take you through the long-term secular growth drivers that will provide future growth and diversification in areas that play to our strengths. The future of AI-powered software will see our evolving IP used in a variety of ways and with a variety of agents that will enable us to monetize new forms of usage wherever and whenever our technology is used, while reaching customers at the lower end of the market with higher value and more powerful solutions.
Beyond the market expansion we'll see from AI, we still have major adjacent sectors where the value of the data we create can be leveraged in new and powerful ways. Operations is one of those adjacencies, expanding our AI-powered clouds into operations will extend Autodesk in the entire life cycle of buildings, factories and infrastructure, not only expanding our addressable TAM but further increasing the resiliency of our business.
The final area of future growth will come from monetizing our platform ecosystem and the AI agents within it. We're building a whole new vibrant third-party ecosystem that will not only make our solutions more valuable but enable these new monetization paths. A great example of a customer using our APIs and platform in unique ways is BAM. BAM use Autodesk platform services to connect Microsoft SharePoint and Autodesk Construction Cloud, automating file and Metadata workflows that were previously manual and time-consuming.
This not only saved hundreds of hours but also improve data access and laid the groundwork for real-time insights across their design, build and analytics teams. Now let me close with a quick recap of what I've just shared on why Autodesk is well positioned for long-term sustainable growth. Autodesk has a long history of transforming itself ahead of major business and technology shifts.
We're a visionary company. And as a result, we've been able to drive strong financial performance over the long term by capitalizing on these evolutions and being at the front of them. Not only is our core momentum strong, but AI will serve to fortify it as we once again lead our industries into the future. Beyond that, we have proven growth opportunities in infrastructure, construction and manufacturing that are not only areas of current strength but will continue to be growth levers over the next 5 years.
As we continue to maintain our current momentum, there are more opportunities for Autodesk to grow as TAM. Monetizing all usage of our IP is an untapped and emerging area that AI will unlock at scale and expanding our operations creates a significant future opportunity for Autodesk in buildings, factories and infrastructure.
What you'll see today is how all of these elements come together, our proven foundation, our strong growth and our expanding opportunities will create long-term value for the industry that shape our world and for all our shareholders. Thank you. It's now time to turn it over to our Chief Technology Officer, Raji Arasu.
Thank you, Andrew, and good morning. I am Raji Arasu, Autodesk's CTO, leading our technology strategy and platform initiatives. Today, I'll share some context, progress and plans on AI and our platform efforts.
Our platform powers AI native cloud connected workloads across industries and life cycles. It is anchored by 3 industry clouds, Forma, Fusion and Flow on Autodesk Platform Services, called APS, which provides shared capabilities like cloud, trust, data, AI and ecosystem. The 2 objectives of a platform are enhancing customer outcomes, to grow existing and new businesses and boosting employee productivity to free capacity and speed up innovation.
As Andrew outlined, our customers face talent shortages and project backlogs that limit growth. And we can solve that with automation powered by AI. AI creates digital capacity, filling unfilled roles and enabling our customers to do more with less. Industry is leading in AI adoption, already see 3x higher revenue growth per worker. Some of our largest customers are realizing this today and many more are turning to Autodesk to help unlock capacity through AI.
Now let's look at our approach to AI and how it delivers customer outcomes through automation. We see 3 levels of AI automation unfolding across our industries over time. Each step builds on the previous step and delivers great customer value. It starts with strong AI foundation, which Autodesk has shaped by years of investment in research, industry-specific AI foundation models and granular cloud-connected data models.
The first level is task automation. Task automation is the broadest area of impact and benefits to our customers. These automations cut down repetitive error-prone work and give teams more time for creativity and problem solving. Second level is workflow automation. This is where we begin to automate end-to-end workflows often spanning multiple disciplines, multiple industries or multiple products.
Third level is systems automation. This is the most transformative level of automation where AI can start assistive but turn more autonomous with time and human confidence, orchestrating workflows that span multiple places or even automate complete bases within a project life cycle. We are delivering AI features that span all 3 levels of automation, and we will share that value creation in 2 ways.
Access to certain AI features will be included with our product subscription, driving retention and share shift to our products. However, AI features that deliver very high-value automation or are compute intensive in nature will be available for limited use with our product subscription. When customers hit usage limits, we will provide options to buy more.
We are advancing these automations to 3 categories of AI work, core, agentic and neural. You can already see all 3 categories of work at play across our products and industry clouds. Let me start with Core AI. This is a foundation AI that is embed directly into how we build software. Traditional coding is giving way to an AI-first approach, where models are the new engine of product innovation.
Our development teams are blending the best external AI technologies with our own proprietary models to deliver AI features faster than ever. And customers are seeing immediate value through these AI features that are delivered in our core products. There are 3 examples, one from each industry. The courts and testimonials from these customers of proof points that they're meeting design intent and outcomes, cutting down development time significantly and freeing up creative time for their teams.
Next up is agentic AI. A key part of our agentic AI strategy is a reimagine Autodesk Assistant, a powerful agentic AI partner for design and make, shaping the future of work for our investors. Autodesk Assistant is the intelligent entry point into Autodesk products that automates repetitive task helps a timely decision and provides guidance and insights in real time through conversational prompts powered by user and industry aware context. As it learns over time, it will become a high-performing team member that our customers cannot live without helping them consistently meet complex outcomes and grow their business.
We showed a lot of assistant demos at AU last month that assist, provide insights and automate to unlock capacity for our customers. Let me give you one example that goes across our products. For admins, Autodesk Assistant helps manage team members, secure access to Autodesk products, while suggesting usage optimization for power users or occasional users.
Now moving on to our third category, Neural. Neural technologies drive all levels of automation, but deliver the greatest value in systems automation. These Neural technologies will play out in all parts of design and make life cycle, delivering design to production or script to spring. But to start with, the most impactful is applying these technologies to the design process, to generate options that meet complex outcomes.
It is about building the living, learning neural functionality for tomorrow that augments 40-year-old parametric CAD engines of today. So we can tackle more complex designs with current human capacity. Hence, our focus is neural CAD and the foundation margin within that category where we can generate 2D, 3D geometry in new ways that deliver multi-modality, precision and editability for our industries.
We announced neural CAD last month at AU. These are domain-specific generative AI foundation models that offer normal-based explored solutions and generate geometry to transform design and make.
Let us deep dive into 2 neural CAD applications that we announced, neural CAD for geometry infusion. It complete flexible and intelligent designs as editable CAD geometry, giving our customers control to edit as if they've modeled the geometry themselves.
The second foundation model, neural CAD in pharma, turns concept models into viable and editable building plants in minutes. Automating code, budget and environmental checks that today take architects and engineers months and often lead to costly rework. These capabilities are accessible both directly integrated into our industry clouds as well as through Autodesk Assistant.
While these 2 are new neural AI features, we started this journey last year, where we launched auto constraint and AI featured power the neural CAD that generates sketch constraint during product design infusion. As you see from this quote from JDD, [indiscernible], is delivering and goodies usage, we Autodesk get to iterate and improve model performance. Our AI work is supported by 3 key enablers, data, ecosystem and trust.
You have heard us talk about these enablers in the overall platform context before. These enablers are serving us well by creating leverage on speed. And I will speak about how we're evolving them rapidly to incorporate AI, starting with data. Our customers need access to granular and interoperable data to make AI work. And the work we have been doing in this space over many years is enabling us to push the boundaries in AI for design and make.
First, AI cannot use data that is locked inside files. Our work to date in making design data for AEC manufacturing more granular through industry data models has accelerated customer benefits and the buildout of our foundational models. We will continue to expand the data in these models for all 3 industries with entire project and product life cycle data to help customers derive powerful insights and predictions. For AI to get workflow automation right, data needs to flow across tools in a secure and reliable way.
This is where our data exchange connectors help with selective secure and controlled data sharing across Autodesk and non-Autodesk systems. Usage of these connectors has grown 5x in the last year alone and we announced 3 more connectors last month. We are also solving interoperability through seamless native geometry mapping and design tools that help customer pain points of time lost and rework and unlocks new possibilities AI. And our customers are already benefiting from our data solutions.
Two examples, PEC and WSP are able to expand their capacity and deliver stronger business outcomes through granular and interoperable data. Our next enabler for AI is a platform ecosystem. Customers have been extending their workflows and building custom solutions using Autodesk API for years. And as we see value, our ecosystem use continues to grow and so has our API usage.
Let me share some customer testimonials on how they're leveraging our APIs for automation. In these examples, both BAM and Ramboll turned disconnected data across systems into connected work flows and empower real-time insights, thereby dramatically expanding the capacity and unlocking better business outcomes. Our ecosystem partners have been building a variety of different solutions using our APIs.
We have recently seen a rise in AI agents and MCP servers on APIs, and I'm confident this growth will only accelerate as the agentic technologies mature. In fact, AI agents are expected to become the primary users of most enterprise systems over time. We are preparing for this paradigm shift through a flexible business model that monetizes the use of our APIs for a future that includes what typical use versus machine and agent-driven use that is aimed at automation. Therefore, we're introducing a new usage-based pricing model for APIs at the end of this year.
Customers with product subscription can continue to access select APIs with generous monthly limits. However, when their usage goes past these limits, additional charges will apply, and they will have options to buy extra usage. We will start rolling out this change for a small set of our APIs later this year and more will follow over time.
Our third enabler is trust. Our trust efforts have always been focused on security, privacy and reliability. We have been expanding these efforts to now include trusted AI. Our goal is to deliver trusted enterprise grade AI. Transparency and trust have never mattered more and we have been backing it up with real action, like transparency cards, customer trust consoles and the adoption of global frameworks and certifications.
And now Autodesk is one of the first few companies globally to achieve ISO-42001, the world's first international standard for AI management. This isn't just a compliance certificate it demands rigorous risk controls, clear accountability and continuous monitoring. This reinforces our commitment to trust while building confidence with our customers and the clients that Autodesk is setting a high bar on responsible AI governance and data stewardship.
And we continue to make progress in supporting customer requests to keep data in various regions around the world. Earlier this year, we announced 5 additional regions as primary storage location for our customers' project data in key offerings within Autodesk Construction Cloud, which is also now part of Forma and we will continue to expand into more regions and products in the future.
We talked about how we are working to drive better customer outcomes to our platform strategy. A second major goal of our platform is to improve our internal productivity as a company, resulting in increased speed and innovation for our customers. Internal productivity is delivered to share capabilities and making the best AI tools available to our employees.
Let's talk about shared capabilities first. This is about building once and reusing everywhere across our 3 industry clouds in the broader Autodesk portfolio. We continue to see productivity benefits from shared capabilities. Let me highlight just a few. The common AI/ML platform capability, which we call AI/ML portal ensures that Autodesk AI features are built in a well governed, scalable and cost-effective way from the start. It provides common pipelines for data acquisition, training and inferencing out of the box.
Teams can get started to build AI features 9x faster using this portal. Our platform-based regionalization approach has sped up cloud regional delivery, helping us expand up to 5 regions and creating the capability to stand up any of these quickly in the future. And our latest reward capability shared across multiple products is now able to load models that are 4x larger in size since last year.
Now let's talk about how we're using AI tools internally to boost employee productivity. Our philosophy on AI productivity is simple. Give employees secure access to the best AI tools, govern data acquisition and model training with enterprise-wide standards and net grassroots innovation drive productivity gains. Most of our development teams use AI coding tools saving 1 to 3 hours every day, helping us channel this capacity towards building more AI and data capabilities for our customers.
On the customer success side, our Autodesk Assistant has made it easier for customers to self-serve their support needs with human escalations reducing to under 15% in the last 2 quarters. And in marketing, average time to first touch for leads is down by about 60% over past 12 months, enabling faster customer engagement. These are just a few examples.
Many other functions and disciplines within the company are applying AI tools towards eliminating repetitive tasks or reimagining workflows to accelerate outcomes. So what sets us apart? First, we are building AI native products and solutions using an AI-first approach. This is now at the core of what we build and how we build for our customers. Second, we are tackling our customers' biggest capacity challenges with AI and data, and we're already seeing strong signals that it is working. And third, we have an vibrant ecosystem of partners and third-party developers with double-digit API adoption today.
This community will help us accelerate our future workforce that consists of humans and agents unlocking capacity for our customers. Many are daunted by the technological advancements happening and a possible disruption. However, we see immense opportunities and are laser-focused on realizing this for our customers and Autodesk. They're moving faster than ever before, but are doing so intentionally and responsibly. Thank you. Now handing over to Jeff Kinder.
Thanks, Raji, and good morning, everyone. My name is Jeff Kinder, and I lead design in manufacturing at Autodesk. I'm excited to talk with you about the tremendous opportunity we see in the manufacturing industry and how we've positioned ourselves to continue driving growth and increasing our share.
We have 3 key areas of focus to cover. First, I'll talk about where we win today, specifically the continued growth of our design and manufacturing portfolio as well as the disruption we're driving in the industry with Fusion, our AI native cloud for manufacturing. Next, you'll hear about how we're leading the industry and unlocking new growth levers with AI. And finally, we'll look at future growth coming from our expansion into adjacent manufacturing segments.
Before we dive in, let's start by looking at the total addressable market for design and manufacturing as well as some of the key trends impacting our customers. Manufacturing is generally considered the largest contributor to global GDP outside the services industry at approximately 17%. Adoption of technology and manufacturing is relatively mature. Thus, the design and manufacturing software industry is vast, a $58 billion opportunity in terms of end-user expenditures across design, make and operate.
Breaking that down a little further, of the total addressable market, design accounts for $30 billion, Make is $8 billion and Operate is $20 billion. These updated numbers from our last Investor Day in 2023 reflect opportunities we see in application life cycle management and model-based systems engineering on the design side as well as supply chain management and process execution systems on the operate side.
Our belief is our expertise coupled with recent acquisitions and importantly, the adoption of AI will open up these areas. Many of the trends impacting our industry are not new, and they're interrelated. Macroeconomic uncertainty continues to be top of mind for manufacturers and the tax on manufacturing businesses from trade wars, geopolitical tension and recurring supply chain disruptions is leading manufacturers to prioritize resiliency and agility in operations. A strong domestic manufacturing sector is a priority all over the world.
However, skilled labor and raw material shortages create some limits in how well and how quickly manufacturers can adapt to this volatility. AI is going to help with these limits. And so it's no surprise that activity related to AI is picking up and adoption is rapidly increasing among manufacturers. I showed this slide at our previous Investor Day. Most of our large competitors focus on the enterprise with highly customized on-premise solutions.
Our focus has been on the mid-market manufacturers, which have historically been underserved the mid-market is behind on digital transformation efforts. They may have old outdated machinery or software tools. Skilled labor is difficult to attract and margins are narrow. We see significant growth ahead in the mid-market, displacing SolidWorks. Our thesis continues to be, if we build scalable, modern cloud-based solutions that are priced effectively, those solutions will steadily move upmarket and disrupt the enterprise. And as you'll hear shortly, we are proving this path to be true.
Fusion is increasingly serving larger and larger customers who are looking for solutions that are cost-effective, easy to implement and scale. It's important to remember that mid-market manufactures are the backbone of the global manufacturing industry. In fact, the World Economic Forum has found that small and medium-sized enterprises represent 90% of the world's manufacturing firms globally. And that percentage is even higher in the United States.
Moreover, the mid-market accounts for approximately 40% of software expenditures. The mid-market opportunity is big and will continue to fuel our growth in the near term as we serve larger and larger manufacturing customers. We serve these customers by adhering to a clear vision. End-to-end design and manufacturing processes coming together in the cloud with connected data and connected teams powered by AI.
Now let's look more closely at the continued growth in our portfolio. A quick reminder about how we see the software evolution in design and manufacturing, point solutions, such as Inventor, Vault and Alias, have served our customers well for decades and they will continue to serve our customers. Our competitors have similar point solutions. However, to unlock the next breakthrough productivity gains, manufacturers need to move to an industry cloud, in our case, Fusion, which brings disparate processes together into one end-to-end solution.
The convergence of design and make in the cloud is a discontinuous disruption in our industry. Executed well, it delivers intelligent AI-powered automation and breakthrough productivity gains for manufacturers. We believe the foundation to that disruption is derived from 3 successive layers of advantage with Fusion. First, a convergence of product development workflow capabilities in the cloud. Second, centralized and granular data accessed via a unified data model. And finally, AI automation is capable of transforming our industry. We've long been investing in AI, machine learning and generative design. It's what pushed our early move to the cloud, ensuring we had strong foundational blocks for AI in place far ahead of our competitors.
This is where we see the future. As we lead the way through this evolution to fusion, we maintain growth across our product portfolio by serving customers of our desktop products well. We want to ensure a smooth path to the future for those desktop customers when they are ready. Our desktop customers continue to realize value today while positioning themselves for an increasingly productive future. As we have developed Fusion, we were deliberate in how we segmented target markets for our products.
Fusion largely targeted new or emerging segments. And not surprisingly, Fusion's growth has outpaced our desktop products. This segmentation has worked. But as Fusion matures, this is starting to change. Customers outside the initial target segments are adopting Fusion. Sometimes they adopt Fusion to complement other products like Inventor, sometimes it's to move to the cloud. This is a trend we expect to continue. One customer is seeing benefit from both our desktop and cloud products is Molto Luce.
Based in Austria, Molto Luce is a leading manufacturer of innovative, high-quality lighting solutions. Molto Luce's mechanical engineers utilize Inventor for the detailed design of their LED luminous lights and then seamlessly transfer the models to Fusion to run precise thermal and cooling simulations. With Fusion's easy-to-use simulation tools, engineers without specialized backgrounds can quickly detect issues interpret clear feedback and adjust designs early on. This seamless Inventor, Fusion integration enables fast, reliable iterations that avoid delays, save costs and accelerate development.
Now let's focus on Fusion specifically, where growth is happening now. Fusion has rapidly matured over the past few years. And today, Fusion is actively entering its next phase of growth. We're beginning to see adoption by larger and larger companies to serve new and higher-value segments of the professional market. I can highlight 3 forces propelling this growth.
The first is new capabilities such as cloud-based configurations, integrated PDM and PLM, improved assembly performance and a cloud-based build of materials. We have dramatically expanded our cloud data management capabilities, setting a new standard in the industry. Our cloud PLM capabilities enable real-time collaboration, automated change processes and streamlined workflows, all integrated with a unified design and make platform for smarter, faster product development.
The second force is our business model, specifically Fusion's disruptive price point and flexible offering. We are delivering unprecedented value to manufacturing customers. In Fusion, we have unified design, simulation, electronics, manufacturing, data management and factory operations into one fluid environment, whereas our competitors come with much higher price tags for multiple point solutions that are difficult to integrate.
Our base subscription meets the end-to-end design and make needs of most small to midsized companies, and extensions are available for more sophisticated needs. This latter approach and the inherent flexibility of extensions allow customers to choose what works for their needs so they can align value with usage. This model is beneficial to both our customers as well as to Autodesk.
As evidence of this approach is working and delivering more value to customers, we have seen growth in the average billings per Fusion transaction. This increase is a result of 3 conscious efforts, increased attachment of extensions, added capabilities, which support a higher price point and less discounting.
The third force that continues to propel Fusion's growth is our large passionate community. Even as we grow in larger accounts, we continue to nurture the Fusion base. They are part of what fueled Fusion's early success and momentum with product-led growth. This community has never been more important than it is today in the world of AI where AI search pulls from real-time signals on social media platforms to detect what topics products and opinions are trending. The Fusion community is active and engaged across multiple social media platforms, including Instagram, Facebook, YouTube and Reddit.
Not only do users help each other and evangelize for Fusion, but they also give us direct feedback on what the product needs to do better. And I should mention our largest single community, students. We have had over 7.5 million education users of Fusion to date.
We are training the next generation of design and make professionals with the software tools of the future. SwissDrones is a great example of a customer that's putting the full depth and breadth of Fusion's capabilities to work. SwissDrones uses Fusion for all aspects of product development, from early concept to final release.
Fusion connects engineering, manufacturing and integration teams in one shared environment where changes appear instantly across the globe. The ability to adapt quickly in a fast-paced but heavily regulated industry is what will define leaders in the unmanned aerial vehicle sector. And Autodesk tools are a key part of how SwissDrones will achieve this.
Let's shift now to how we're driving growth in the near term through AI. The manufacturing sector is on the cusp of a paradigm shift powered by AI. There have been two major paradigm shifts in the design and manufacturing software market over the last 40 years. Each of these shifts led to significant value creation and share shift, multibillion-dollar companies emerged. The first was a shift to Parametric in late 1980s, enabling faster iteration and more accurate engineering.
The next was the adoption of 3D models on Windows-based platforms in the late 1990s where user-friendly design and simulation tools became widely available and accessible to new users. We believe AI will be the next big paradigm shift. And the winner will be whoever thinks boldly, moves fast and executes well, willing to challenge existing processes in order to unlock value and productivity for customers. We have an advantage here. Given our early move to the cloud and its foundational role in developing AI capabilities.
We're leaning heavily into AI to lead the paradigm shift, and we have been investing for a long time. You've seen our capability framework already from Raji and Andrew. Foundations were critical. Then we started with boring AI, but valuable, very valuable task automation. The transformation really begins with workflows and systems automation. Many of these capabilities will be included with the subscription and drive share shift to Fusion.
Some of these capabilities may be capacity controlled and charged on a pay-per-use basis. But all are happening in parallel, and they will continue to deliver value well into the future. We have a range of task automation already in market and many more that will be delivered agenticly through the Autodesk assistant. We chose these based on known customer pain points in the design and make process.
And we know we focused in the right tasks based on the adoption and feedback we've received from customers. These capabilities are being readily adopted by our customers who are hungry for improved productivity. And as I said at the outset, manufacturing customers are already embracing AI.
What gets really exciting and will be even more transformative is when multiple tasks come together, leading to entirely reimagined workflows. Three letter acronyms start to converge and the result is customers leaping ahead in an end-to-end process. We see multiple areas where these workflows can be reimagined than automated. Systems automation is where multiple workflows come together. With systems automation, we use AI to connect and learn from entire systems or subsystems. It can then be set up to take autonomous actions that create adjust or optimize.
For example, Fusion systems modeler will enable us to set up features like pockets and drilled holes and then pass those to the modeler, which can automate downstream tasks like drawing documentation and manufacturing instructions. So design data is maintained throughout and changes are automatically propagated to manufacturing. AI will be the catalyst for near-term growth for Fusion.
Let's turn to other areas where we see growth in the future beginning with consumer products. There are a number of characteristics that make this an attractive segment for Fusion. First, the consumer products market is vast and often characterized by mid-market manufacturers. Second, its processes are fragmented. Companies often lead in product design while manufacturing is outsourced, creating disruption in the life cycle.
Consumer products companies are looking for better collaboration tools and processes. Third, given the nature of consumer demand, cost and time to market are critical. Fusion is a natural fit for these companies, looking to move quickly because it's a cost-effective, easy-to-use tool that brings design and make processes together in the cloud. And we're seeing traction.
Take for example, Fellten, a company that converts classic cars to electric vehicles, preserving their original structure while integrating modern electric drivetrains. Fellten uses Fusion extensively from mechanical and electronic design, prototyping and stress analysis. The use of Fusion saves Fellten weeks of development.
Hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent on new factory construction around the world. And every new factory is an opportunity for Autodesk as domestic manufacturing surges and greenfield or brownfield factory projects grow, Autodesk is the only competitor with the strength and depth across both design and manufacturing and architecture, engineering and construction including digital twins and operations. This opportunity exists in both the mid-market as well as the enterprise, reflecting Autodesk's strength.
An example of this broad factory opportunity is Edwards, part of the Atlas Copco Group. In addition to construction of new factories, Edwards has been leveraging our digital factory portfolio. They have been able to optimize service technology centers throughput with advanced simulations. They have eliminated costly physical rework and time delays, and they are continuously monitoring and improving facility performance across their global footprint with digital and operational trends.
To conclude, let me recap why we will win in design and manufacturing now and in the future. Autodesk is a market innovator in design and manufacturing, advancing the industry forward. We are leading the industry, converging design and make in the cloud and delivering value through AI. We are well ahead of the competition, driving clear benefit for our customers.
Fusion also has sustained momentum. And with its disruptive business model, it continues to take share. Our end-to-end solution, combined with our accessible price point and flexible offering delivers unprecedented value to customers. Finally, we are delivering the future for both our current customers and new sectors. We will make it easy to move from desktop products to Fusion and continue to expand our footprint with a compelling product offering, increasingly powerful capabilities and a unique value proposition. Thank you.
And now we'll take a short break when we return, you'll hear from Diana Colella, Executive Vice President of Media and Entertainment.
[Break]
Welcome back, everyone. I'm Diana Colella, Executive Vice President of Media and Entertainment at Autodesk. I'm happy to be here today to talk to you about our Media and Entertainment business. To start, I will provide a brief context on the M&E industry and the challenges it faces. Then I'll walk you through how we at Autodesk are uniquely positioned to solve those challenges with our products in AI. And how we will expand our market reach with Autodesk flow, our industry cloud, connecting the production life cycle from end to end. Finally, we'll conclude with why we will win.
Let's start with some industry context. The media and entertainment software industry is a dynamic industry, driven by increasing global consumer spend on digital media, from movies and streaming content to video games, all of which require software to make. But while consumer spend has been growing, the industry has been facing significant challenges when it comes to creating new content profitably.
Since 2020, the major studios have lost over $30 billion creating streaming content. At the same time, the cost of making a AAA game has gone up 10 times from $40 million to $400 million, with an utmost corresponding decrease in margins. These rising production costs are making projects riskier, reinforcing the make it or break up aspect of each production, reducing the cost of production has become a major challenge to the industry, causing it to retrench over the past 2 years. As studios figure out how to return to profitability, AI will play a vital role in helping reduce costs. One Autodesk is well positioned to capitalize on.
Now during the retrenchment, many of our customers significantly downsized yet our M&E business held its own. Why? Because we have been investing ahead of the curve in cloud and AI technologies that will help the industry better achieve the profitable outcomes it desires. You may have heard that AI will kill today's content creation software and some AI evangelists certainly like to claim so. But the reality is that it will not kill software. Instead, it will supercharge it, making it more performant and more outcome-oriented.
Will AI disrupt the old ways of doing things? Yes. Just like personal computers did in the 1980s and SaaS in the 21st century. AI is just the next innovation in software, and it will fuel the next phase of growth. Growth that comes from more than just monetizing subscribers, which are a finite pool but also from broader consumption and outcome-based business model.
At Autodesk, we are not waiting for disruption to happen. We're driving the disruption with both SaaS and AI, and we are leading the way. Over the years, we've been adding AI features to our products, accelerating our pace of development. Few understand the media and entertainment industry and AI in Media and Entertainment better than we do. We are the data pipeline the industry uses to create most computer-generated content today, which puts us in the best position, with AI that meets both professional quality standards and the control the industry needs, especially when it comes to editability, which is something LLMs cannot do today nor any time soon.
I will talk more about how we're doing this later. Now let's look at our current opportunity. We estimate the total addressable market for Media and Entertainment software, including AI, to currently be $8.5 billion. We also believe AI has a strong potential to unlock new markets downstream in the creator economy as it matures in capability. Underlying this opportunity are several key trends. Today's consumers create bigger and better entertainment experiences. The constant pressure for bigger and better entertainment is causing production complexity to rise and cost to balloon. AI will reduce this complexity and the cost of production.
Let's take a closer look at each of these trends. Consumers want high-quality entertainment. You can see that in the constantly increasing resolution of our media devices and formats. To succeed, media and entertainment companies must constantly push creative and technical boundaries delivering more content at a higher quality across more platforms and at an unprecedented speed. Production complexities and cost is also increasing, like Disney's Andor, which cost $645 million to make or Grand Theft Auto IV estimated at over $1 billion.
The chart on the right shows the dramatic increase in the file sizes of video games. The larger the file size, the more digital assets required and the more complex it is to develop. This is not sustainable and studios will need smarter, more efficient ways to create content, which brings us to our next trend. M&E companies are increasingly interested in the potential of AI to help solve the complexity and cost challenges we just talked about. They are already actively exploring its use from planning and previous to automating time-consuming tasks such as audio dubbing.
AI is even being used to accelerate visual effects work such as the de-aging of Tom Hanks in the movie here or the use of Autodesk Flow Studio to help animate Bizarro's rock monster form in Superman & Lois. AI will continue to transform the Media and Entertainment industry. And as I've mentioned earlier, Autodesk is uniquely positioned to deliver the AI capabilities and orchestration the industry will need with solutions that power the next wave of professional content creation. Let's seek a closer look at our opportunities to expand Autodesk's Media and Entertainment business.
Our growth opportunities lie within our current portfolio, the new creator economy and the production pipeline itself, each of which we will cover in detail today. We will start with the opportunity in front of us right now, our current portfolio. Today, we are leaders in 3D content creation and production management with Maya 3ds Max and Flow Production Tracking. Our products are behind almost every movie, streaming series or video game production being made.
In fact, everything you see here was made possible with Autodesk software. This market leadership translates directly into business growth. When studios need to produce more content and meet tighter deadlines, they turn to the tools they already trust. Ours. That's why we're making investments to future-proof these tools. Delivering more innovation, speed and flexibility to customers by enabling customers to do more faster we will create new opportunities to upsell, cross-sell and deepen our value.
We are already driving growth within our current portfolio, adding more value to the M&E collection through new offerings like Golaem and Flow Studio and by integrating AI automation into our core DCC products. These moves not only strengthen our portfolio, but they also help customers adapt to the AI-driven transformations ahead.
Let me double-click on each of these briefly, starting with the M&E collection. To move more customers to our premium offerings, we have to add more value to the M&E collection, which is why this year, we added two new capabilities of significant value. The first is Golaem, a demo of which you can see playing here. Golaem allows artists to quickly create and animate crowds of characters to populate a stadium, a street or even a city by simulating crowd behaviors at any scale, Golaem can save days to weeks of an animator's schedule. The second addition is Flow Studio. Our powerful AI solution for creating animated content developed by Wonder Dynamics.
I'll talk more about this addition in just a few minutes.
Together, Golaem and Flow Studios significantly expand the capabilities of the M&E collection, along with the additions we're making to the collections, we're also delivering real AI value to customers by automating repetitive tasks, augmenting workflows and delivering more connected and intelligent systems. As you heard Andrew mentioned, our AI solutions are built with a clear purpose, identify where customers waste time on manual work and build targeted automation to solve those specific problems. That's exactly what we're doing in Media and Entertainment. We're not only delivering new AI solutions but we're also embedding AI into the content creation tools our customers already rely on.
Just look at MotionMaker. MotionMaker is an AI tool that can automate the process of animating human and animal characters to make them walk, run and jump or ML Deformer, which uses AI to automatically simulate the way skin and muscles move when flexing or stretching. And then there's FaceAnimator, which uses AI to automatically animate a characters, lips and face to match a specific audio track and desired emotion. These and future AI features will reduce animator's labor times, freeing them to focus on higher value creative work. And they will broaden our customer base by making our software more accessible for everyone to use.
That brings us to our next area of opportunity, growing our AI business in the near future with Autodesk Flow Studio. This is how we will reach the new creator market. Most of the AI-generated content you see today is 2D and not suited for professional productions. It is limited to generating stock imagery and short montage style video clips. This is because it lacks the continuity, quality and creative control needed for professional productions.
Flow Studio changes that. It combines the easy-to-use aspects of AI with the added ability and control needed for professional workflows. This makes Flow Studio easy for anyone to create 3D animation and visual effects. But it also allows you to output AI-generated results as 2D and 3D components for editing and refining and professional software applications like Maya. Flow Studio is also an AI orchestrator. It works by combining multiple specialized AI models together to generate higher quality results faster.
The orchestration and editability are key competitive differentiators compared to other AI approaches. With Flow Studio, we're not just adding AI to existing pipelines, we're defining how the pipeline works. As I mentioned earlier, Flow Studio will unlock entirely new markets for Autodesk. The creator economy is the fastest-growing Media and Entertainment market today and is right for AI.
Creators want to create high-quality content because they want to stand out, but most do not have the budget or skills to do so. Flow Studio changes that by making it easy and affordable for anyone to use. As you can see, we have an ambitious road map for Flow Studio with rapid iterations delivering new capabilities to customers. By expanding its capabilities, we will ensure that Flow Studio can do more things for more people, expanding its user base and opening up more of the creator market.
As we build on this momentum, we will continue to expand our reach and reinforce Autodesk's leadership in content creation. Customers are already experiencing the value of Flow Studio. Like Boxel Studio, a small but talented visual effects company in Mexico. Previously, studios like Boxel wouldn't have been able to bid for visual effects work on a large-scale production like CWs, Superman & Lois. But with Flow Studios, they could. With Flow Studio, Boxel was able to use AI to eliminate some of the more costly and complex parts of motion capture such as a dedicated stage, specialized cameras and expensive mocap suites. What previously would have taken weeks in traditional workflows, Boxel was able to accomplish in days. Proving that Flow Studio can accelerate animation pipelines while also maintaining the quality necessary for high-profile productions.
This brings us to our final opportunity, transforming the production pipeline itself. This is where we are expanding our leadership in 3D content creation and production management. By delivering a unified digital backbone that solves the inefficiency plaguing production today. Today, productions operate with costly fragmentation as scale and complexity increase, teams remain siloed, working with incomplete information.
Vendors struggle to collaborate, which leads to costly inefficiencies. Studios recreate the same CG asset 5 or 6 times. They spend days on charts already cut from the movie and watch budgets balloon from preventable mistakes. This disconnect represents a clear opportunity for Autodesk. While competitors focus solely on individual tools, we're building the connected infrastructures that solves the core problem.
Fragmented workflows that waste time and money. With Flow, our industry cloud for Media and Entertainment, we will be able to connect all stages of production end to end by linking preproduction, production and postproduction. We break down existing silos. Eliminate redundancy and waste and unlock a more efficient future for creators.
Autodesk Flow integrates data across Autodesk tools, third-party applications and in-house studio systems all through a unified cloud platform. This drives critical business outcomes for Autodesk. We're increasing customer value, deepening our presence across the production pipeline and unlocking new cross-sell opportunities as workflows expand.
Let me walk you through how Flow delivers this connectivity through intelligent resource management, integrated workflows and a seamless data sharing and security across the various stages of production. First, there's Flow production tracking, which helps customers manage complex schedules and production resources. We've already enhanced the tools with machine learning capabilities that simplified planning and optimized resource allocation.
Next, we're delivering integrated workflows that transform how teams collaborate. By connecting our desktop products like Maya and 3ds Max directly to the cloud, we improved team communication and reduce errors and efficiency. A great example of the connected workflows we're building is animating in context, which allows Maya animators to view not just their individual shot but the entire sequence. This broader context eliminates continuity issues and reduces costly rework, while also requiring a flow production tracking license to function, deepening product integration.
But it's not just about connecting workflows. We're also breaking down the most costly silo in production the gap between live action production and postproduction with Flow Capture. Today, what happens on set is divorce from what needs to happen next and post. Key decisions are made in isolation, significantly impacting schedules and budgets. Imagine you are the visual effects team working on this green screen footage from the production of the Netflix movie, Slumberland.
The note say to add a goose. But what kind of goose did the director have in mind? Is there any reference to what it should look like? Or can I make it up? And if there is a reference, where can I find it? A lot of time and effort, risks being wasted, tracking down exactly what the director wants. With Flow Capture's modern architecture, we enable seamless data sharing from preproduction concepts through production to post improving accuracy, reducing waste and preventing data loss. We're already delivering on this vision with our new integration with Avid, which allows editors to browse search and export Flow Capture files directly into Avid Media Composer, streamlining the review and approval process.
But the value of Flow Capture isn't just data sharing. It's also data security. Flow Capture is built with enterprise-level data security at its core, with features like digital watermarking, multifactor authentication and digital rights management. This is especially critical in Media and Entertainment.
We're lead content before launch can derail entire productions costing studios millions. Major studios trust Autodesk to protect their data which is why we're seeing widespread adoption of Flow Capture outside of just film and TV. As cybersecurity becomes critical across the industry, our security-first approach positions us to support not just entertainment, but any business capturing and sharing media. This allows us to expand our Media and Entertainment business and reach new users.
For the first time, studio executives, producers and onset production crews who historically have not used Autodesk tools are becoming part of our ecosystem. These professionals are critical decision-makers and generate a vast amount of data that fuels content creation. As part of our ecosystem, we can address their needs for better collaboration and communication.
And the data that they share will position us has the central comp across the production life cycle. At the same time, our continued investment in AI positions us to deliver the next generation of production tools for market seeking efficiency and scale. This is our vision for the future of Media and Entertainment. A connected, intelligent production ecosystem that empowers creators at every stage.
We will win in Media and Entertainment for these three reasons. First, we set the industry standard for professional productions. As audiences demand more and better content, our tools become essential. We're not just another software vendor we're the technology, the world's top creators and storytellers rely on. And now we're supercharging these essential tools with AI, making them more powerful than number.
Second, we're not just waiting for AI disruption. We're creating it by building the automation that eliminates tedious work and unlocks creative potential. Our AI-first approach doesn't just serve our existing customers. It dramatically expands our addressable market, making sophisticated content creation accessible to millions of new creators who were previously locked out by complexity and cost.
And finally, we're architecting the future of how content gets made. With Flow is our connected cloud first end-to-end platform, we will enable seamless collaboration across teams in every stage of production. This is how we will evolve from an essential vendor to an indispensable infrastructure. We're not just part of the entertainment industry we are shaping the operating system that powers it. The AI that accelerates it and the platform that defines its future.
Thank you for your time today. With that, I'll turn things over to Amy Bunszel.
Thank you, Diana. I'm here today to share how Autodesk is driving growth by enabling our architecture, engineering construction and operations or AECO customers to accelerate digital transformation. To start, I will provide some industry context, including the total addressable market for the AECO industry and break that down for the design, make and operate categories.
Next, I will highlight how we are continuing to grow our core portfolio leveraging our strength in building information modeling, or BIM. Then I will highlight near-term acceleration opportunities in construction, transportation and water. Finally, I'll share an update on how we will be delivering the first ever end-to-end AI-enabled design and make AECO Industry Cloud with Forma.
Let's dive into the opportunity and market context we see across the AECO industry. AECO is a massive global industry that benefits tremendously from digital transformation. Construction spending alone is projected to reach $15.7 trillion in 2025. Companies will spend $51 billion on technology through Autodesk's calendar 2028. Only Autodesk can support both design and make professionals at every step of a project life cycle, and we believe that's a long-term opportunity for sustained growth.
Let's click into that even further. When we look at the TAM breakdown, design is still the largest category, but for make and operate, the market opportunity is sizable. Design is the furthest along in digital transformation and there are still numerous expansion opportunities. Both make and operate are far earlier in their digital transformation efforts, creating tremendous opportunity for Autodesk. For example, while our design monthly active user grows over the past 3 years is at an impressive 23%, construction users are growing nearly 4x faster or 101% over the last 3 years.
And the construction TAM is growing 21% faster than design over the last 3 years as the industry digitize it. Turning to industry trends. Our customers are facing more challenges than ever, in turn, creating opportunities for Autodesk. Increasing demand is coupled with enhanced regulatory requirements in a highly resource-constrained environment, putting pressure on productivity.
Add to that an explosion of AI tools and data and the need to deliver strong financial results and you have a compelling case for digital transformation. Fortunately, for Autodesk, transformation is in our DNA. We've helped our customers move from the drafting table to AutoCAD, then from AutoCAD to BIM. And now we are leading the shift to connected data and AI, moving towards true outcome-based BIM. At every stage, Autodesk has guided this industry forward, and we're doing it again today.
We are in the unique position of having an industry-leading portfolio to meet customers' needs today, while also investing in the future with our Forma Industry Cloud. By combining the Autodesk Construction Cloud, with Forma's design and data capabilities, the Forma Industry Cloud becomes the first ever end-to-end design and make Industry Cloud for AECO. Forma is driving the next paradigm shift in building information modeling.
It's built for the realities of today's projects, connecting stakeholders servicing insights through data and AI to deliver better outcomes across the board. The ability to offer a single environment that can serve every role in every phase of a project life cycle is a major differentiator from our competitors. It future-proofs Autodesk by bringing our current customers along with us and enabling us to capture new customers.
Of course, I'd be remiss in not mentioning another paradigm shift, AI. As you have heard from all my colleagues, AI is providing new opportunities for us to add value and AECO is no different. The impact of AI is built across the Forma Industry Cloud and our desktop applications, as evidenced by these examples. We've been delivering test automation for years now and are combining tasks into workflows, such as creating a BIM model from the point cloud scan. And usually AI to generate issues from photos. Longer-term entire processes can be driven by our AI capability, imagine creating complex schedules for a complete building design in a fraction of the time and effort.
Before we dive further into the major opportunity we have with Forma, I want to share how we are driving continued growth in our core portfolio with BIM, by leading with AI and unlocking the value of our customers' data. BIM demand is growing in both the public and private sector. In the past 2 years, we have seen 28% growth in reported national BIM policies and programs, rising from 41 countries in 2022 to 57 last year.
As the benefits of BIM-based project delivery reach more customers, we anticipate that more nations will make or accelerate investments in BIM. We see significant opportunity ahead because even with decades of investment, BIM adoption is still at only 22% globally. Growth is exploding in regions like India, the Middle East and Latin America, especially around infrastructure, airports, hospitals, stadiums, data centers, roads, highways, water systems and more. Autodesk is practically synonymous with BIM. So as public and private owners demand BIM, customers turn to Autodesk.
We're embedding AI directly into the tools customers use every day like Revit and AutoCAD, delivering additional value to their current subscriptions. Customers use natural language prompts to understand different aspects of their designs, and our AI assistant handles the execution. An example on the left, with Autodesk assistant in Revit, customers can perform complex calculations like window-to-wall ratios directly in Revit, instead of switching to another program.
Then they can tell the assistant what they want to modify based on those calculations, and it will locate and update the right elements without manually clicking or searching. On the right, in the newly announced form of building design, customers can even use AI to generate, regenerate or partially generate interior layout, all trained by Autodesk's industry-specific foundational model. This is an AI for the sake of AI, it's purpose-built automation that makes our customers more productive and makes our products stickier, which opens new opportunities for us in the future.
At the foundation of this work is data, we are unlocking the value of data by moving from a file-based approach to granular data that maintains a continuous digital thread of information throughout every phase of a project life cycle. Autodesk Docs now Forma Data Management is at the center of our connected ecosystem. And as we announced at AU, we will offer an essential version of Forma Data management to Revit, Civil 3D and AutoCAD subscribers. They will now have access to the backbone of connected data across AECO, creating a ramp for expansion and deeper integration of our solutions across our customers' ecosystems.
Now let's look at our accelerating growth in construction, transportation and water. First, in construction. The construction industry is still in the early stages of digital transformation. In fact, it is one of the least digitized industries in the world, creating tremendous opportunity for Autodesk. As the industry modernizes, Autodesk is in a unique position to converge workflows across design and make to connect teams and leverage data and AI to unlock real-time insights.
Our opportunity in construction is approximately $11 billion, and much of this is greenfield or highly fragmented, creating a perfect opportunity for our platform approach. Our direction is bold. With the Autodesk Construction Cloud now joining Autodesk Forma, we are creating the first ever comprehensive industry cloud across AECO. This end-to-end approach for managing the construction project life cycle builds on a tight integration between design and construction, leveraging Autodesk's leadership in BIM to support the full asset life cycle.
With the Forma Industry Cloud, we are giving owners and operators, general contractors, subcontractors and design firms one connected and integrated AI-driven platform that spans the entire project life cycle, and that is what sets Autodesk apart. Differentiating through unification and innovation, leveraging our strength in design and our robust ecosystem of integration partners we are uniquely positioned to win in construction.
Let's look at three areas in construction, where we are innovating for our customers. First, preconstruction solutions are business critical for general contractors. We are unifying our portfolio by bringing together takeoff, estimating, and bidding via the Forma Industry Cloud with enhancements to workflows that are not available in competitors' stand-alone products.
And with AI-powered construction assistant in this unified preconstruction experience, estimators will be able to instantly find detailed information for more confident numbers to win work in a razors thin margin industry. Next, we are responding to customer requests, bringing the value we deliver to those in the trailer or office to those on the job site.
We are introducing a host of new field-focused capabilities for mobile devices. These new features also offer lighter weight workflows, which are more approachable for smaller and mid-market firms and new AI-powered features will help teams more quickly capture progress photos, log issues and complete daily logs with just a few taps.
Finally, we are completing our integration of GC Pay, enabling us to deliver a great experience for our U.S., U.K. and Australia customers via this plus one offering, and we are winning. Our construction platform strategy is validated by the multiproduct adoption trends we see across top construction firms. For example, Chandos one of North America's most innovative builders are leveraging both GC Pay and the Autodesk Construction Cloud on all projects. Several years ago, Chandos began an initiative to evaluate and replace existing point solutions, seeking a platform and partner that they could confidently align with for the long term. After learning about our approach to building a full life cycle platform and our ability to meet their short-term and long-term needs. They chose Autodesk as that platform and partner. By offering more than point solutions, we are continuing to build momentum in new and existing customers.
Now on to transportation. Growth in highways represent the largest segment of global transportation infrastructure spend, roughly 47% across emerging and developed markets. As public agencies modernize their project delivery and adopt cloud-based collaboration, they are actively exploring new solutions and Autodesk is helping them streamline workflows and meet new regulatory mandates.
The digital transformation of transportation is well underway. And for Autodesk, it represents an estimated $7.4 billion opportunity by Autodesk fiscal year 2029 that we are poised to lead. Our strategy is clear, bring the BIM to transportation. The same that the world has come to expect from Autodesk for buildings, we can bring to transportation. And it's not just design, it's the full BIM life cycle for planning, design, construction and operations.
And today, our collaboration offerings enable us to upsell design customers to our digital project delivery solutions. Let's take a look at three areas where we are innovating for our transportation customers. First, reality capture is one of the most accurate and reliable ways to document existing conditions. And with scans of BIM, customers can easily and accurately extract that data directly into their design tools and conduct AI power analysis for their rail, road and highway projects. We are also offering rich and flexible BIM content and BIM modeling for bridges, tunnels and walls. Finally, we make collaboration seamless across teams and tools by advocating models from different sources so everyone has the right information from design through construction.
This global investment in modernizing our transportation infrastructure is a great match for our ability to deliver end-to-end project support through design and construction for rail and road projects. Case in point are building momentum with the U.S. Department of Transportation community.
In the U.S. alone, more than 20 state DOTs are working directly with Autodesk in pooled research programs. We have also seen sizable increases in our U.S. DOT customer base. With wins in Tennessee, Montana, South Carolina, Wyoming, Pennsylvania, Alaska and Connecticut. Globally, we have added more than 60 additional transportation owner wins with more to come.
And finally, we have water. Across the world, aging water systems and outdated infrastructure are converging with growing environmental pressures, driving a critical need for modernization. From utilities managing legacy assets to designers, integrating green infrastructure into urban landscapes. Stakeholders are being challenged to rethink how water is planned, managed and sustained.
On the macroeconomic front, global investment in water infrastructure is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, with North America leading as the largest market, accounting for over 35% of water spending. For Autodesk, this represents a $3.4 billion design and make software opportunity. Our strategy is about connecting the full project ecosystem. Water touches nearly every project you can think of from parking lots to airports. We are leaning into that conversation with our comprehensive product design suite, advanced water modeling and simulation capabilities and -- every partnership to deliver a truly connected end-to-end platform for water professionals. We're deepening integrations with Autodesk solutions like Civil 3D and Forma data management, bridging design, analysis and operational workflows for a robust end-to-end platform. As with our other industries, we are taking a comprehensive approach to data and workflow connectivity across multiple platforms and tools focused in 3 primary areas: building a connected ecosystem, building collaboration at scale and building digital twin workflows. For ecosystem enablement, our platform not only offers native integrations with key industry solutions, but also provides secure and flexible APIs, empowering utilities and their consultants to connect with existing workflows.
We are integrating hydraulic modeling and Info360 Insight to enable more advanced workflows within water and focusing on better connecting across our Autodesk tools like Civil 3D, Tandem and Forma and with industry leaders like Esri, digitally transforming our engineering service providers and utility customers deliver projects. And for digital twin work streams, AI is unlocking predictive insights and automation that drives smarter decisions at every phase of a utility life cycle. Water utilities are choosing Autodesk to bring their systems into the 21st century. From local agencies to major metro utilities. We're helping teams digitize, simulate and operate smarter. Take Oklahoma City, who recently began a large project to provide real-time pressure monitoring and guide operational adjustments that reduce water main breaks, improve water quality and enhance fire protection. They chose Autodesk for our unique ability to provide a common environment for hydraulic modeling and operational intelligence, which will serve as the foundation pieces for a future digital twin.
These wins are laying the foundation for deeper partnerships and expanded use across the water life cycle. Our focus on construction, transportation and water also broadens our opportunities for customers like the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, whose work spans across all of these areas. That focus recently led them to standardize on an Autodesk platform for themselves and the more than 60,000 contractors who support thousands of projects each year. Finally, I want to tell you how we are securing the future and our long-term growth with our AI native Forma industry cloud. As I mentioned earlier, and as we announced at AU, the Forma Industry Cloud is the first ever end-to-end AI-native design and make platform for AECO. It is driving the next paradigm shift in building information modeling, which has long been the foundation of innovation in the AECO industry.
A new approach is needed in today's complex environment, one that integrates trusted practices and workflows with modern enablers like granular data, hyper collaboration and AI-driven outcomes and automation. Autodesk is leading the charge in modernizing BIM and bringing our customers along with us. By bringing the proven capabilities of Autodesk Construction Cloud into the Forma Industry Cloud, Autodesk is delivering on a bold vision, seamless end-to-end workflows that enable teams and data to move from design through construction to operations without barriers, silos or compromise. At the core of Autodesk Forma is our common data environment, now called Forma Data Management. It is the foundation of Forma's single continuous project environment that spans design, construction and operations phases. And with Forma Data Management Essentials entitled to all AutoCAD, Revit and Civil 3D users in the future, our customers have an on-ramp to Forma. We are also expanding Forma to detailed building design, reimagining workflows with AI and automation. Forma Building Design will support creation of advanced details, truly demonstrating how detailed modeling can be reimagined with AI and automation.
By reasoning about a building, Forma can automatically generate floor plans and structural elements through the building concept model, while the user stays in control, modifying and extending the AI created design. Collaboration is table stakes. Doing it well is an advantage. Everyone involved in a project must have easy, timely and secure access to the information they need. In the future, Forma Board collaboration capabilities will extend throughout the entire project life cycle by connecting upstream design and planning with downstream workflows such as scheduling, logistics, field execution and handover. Teams will experience unprecedented levels of collaboration, conveying design intent and visualizing data across phases. Forma Connected Clients will bridge desktop and cloud, creating a unified environment where data flows effortlessly across current and future generation tools. Revit will lead the charge as the first desktop application to integrate as a Forma Connected Client, paving the way for tighter integration between design and make. This brings Revit users directly to Forma. And this is just the beginning.
Civil 3D and AutoCAD are next, ensuring that Forma capabilities and data are accessible wherever teams work. This creates an on-ramp to Forma for our desktop product users. The Forma Industry Cloud provides a myriad of new business opportunities for Autodesk. The new Forma building design capabilities add new value to Revit and the AEC collection and create a fresh on-ramp for AutoCAD users who have not yet adopted BIM and for competitive BIM accounts. And of course, we are embedding Forma at universities, so new professionals will start on this journey with us. We're also developing new business models like API and AI monetization and consumption pricing to bring value to both Autodesk and our customers. To close, I want to share how we will remain leaders in the AECO industry. Autodesk has built decades of trust with our customers. The depth and breadth of our portfolio is unmatched, and we have the only industry cloud that connects the full breadth of design and make for AECO.
Our investments in AI and automation will secure our place in the future. It's not just about our customers. We also have a tremendous ecosystem of strategic partners, third-party developers and channel partners that expand our reach and relevance across the building, transportation and water industries. We are not resting on our laurels. We are building the future with Forma. It's the first-ever end-to-end AI-native industry cloud for AECO. By bringing together our current and future strengths, we are positioned to grow and transform the AECO industry. And now I'd like to hand it over to Steve.
Thanks, Amy. Hi, everyone. I'm Steve Blum, Autodesk COO, and it's my pleasure to step you through an overview of our go-to-market evolution. We've been on a multiyear journey evolving the Autodesk go-to-market in order to create smarter, more automated customer experiences that best position us to drive efficient, sustainable growth. Now our focus today will be broken into 3 sections. First, we'll review the journey we've been on transforming our go-to-market system. We'll then cover the evolution of our go-to-market model focused on delivering a world-class customer experience. And finally, I'll review both the efficiencies in our approach and the growth levers we have to drive sustainable long-term growth. All right. So let's start with our go-to-market system transformation journey. We have a proven track record of successful business transformations. We've moved from perpetual licenses and maintenance to subscription and cloud offerings. We've modernized our license compliance approach, moving from a human and legal-led approach to automated in-product engagements.
We've introduced consumption in enterprise business agreements and then consumption at scale with Flex. And we've modernized our partner framework over the years, first in evolving our buy-sell approach to an all back-end framework and then moving from buy-sell to agency with a new transaction model in our primary markets. Our approach has been to build out the go-to-market system capability by capability. We began by replacing our multi-decades old tech stack with a modern SaaS-based tech stack. The first implementation of that was replacing our financial systems. We then turned to our customer-facing go-to-market systems. We moved our Autodesk stores onto the new go-to-market system. It really was our first use case. The next use case was introducing our Flex consumption model. After that, we built out the capability of multiyear orders built annually. And most recently, we completed the global rollout of the new transaction model. The new transaction model has enabled us to build direct relationships with customers in our primary markets.
We moved from an indirect 2-tier distribution model to direct transactions with customers. This now gives us high fidelity customer data that provides us visibility into customer engagement and usage. We continue to tap into our solution providers who are our local superpowers around the world, and we can now share customer information with our partners in this new model. We pay our partners with agency-based commissions as opposed to contra revenue. The move to the new transaction model provides benefits to our customers as well as to Autodesk. Customers benefit through accessing self-service and automation to streamline their engagement process. Their interactions are data-driven, and we can use that data to provide personalized experiences. Customers also get price predictability. Autodesk benefits by using the high fidelity data it's now getting to drive higher renewal rates and to identify data-driven expansion opportunities. Now we are pleased to be at this point in our journey as the significant changes to modernizing our go-to-market systems have been completed. All right. Now let's move on to the evolution of our go-to-market model, focusing on delivering a world-class customer experience.
Several factors are shaping our go-to-market model and how we engage with customers. Customers are increasingly demanding integrated solutions, driving the evolution of our industry clouds, Forma, Fusion and Flow powered by Autodesk Platform Services. We are seeing an industry shift toward value-oriented pricing models, which align to the customers' business success. And of course, AI is reshaping everything and will enable simplified workflows for customers and new monetization opportunities for Autodesk. We have been agile over the years anticipating customer needs and evolving our business models to meet and exceed customer expectations. Our subscription model is firmly established. We offer a consumption model to our largest customers and enterprise business agreements as well as offer our scalable flex offering to all customers. And we will offer enhanced consumption capabilities, which will allow for scaled API access and monetization, will enable both human and machine usage and will provide monetization for AI capabilities and workflows.
And as we build out our design and make platform, we plan to roll out a design and make marketplace that will help build out the ecosystem while providing monetization opportunities for our partners, developers, customers and of course, Autodesk. We continue to evolve our go-to-market model to transform the customer experience. We have and will further enable self-service capabilities to streamline the experience. We're using AI and automations to provide valuable customer insights. We continue to refine our customer segment-specific experiences so that we deliver the right experience to the right customer at the right time. And our goal remains as it's been in the past, building long-term strategic relationships with a focus on customers who have the greatest potential for growth. To share an example of how we're transforming the customer experience, let's look at Mott MacDonald, a global engineering, management and development consultancy. We fundamentally changed how Mott MacDonald engages with our technology by focusing on 3 key areas: First, an extended value chain approach centered on a comprehensive data platform strategy.
We moved them to what we call an unlimited model for data, platform and water solutions, removing traditional barriers to technology adoption and allowing them to expand without constraints. Second, we have an industry focus. As an example, water infrastructure is a strategic priority for Mott MacDonald, and our platform directly supports their largest growth opportunities in this sector. Third, Consultancy serves as a cornerstone to our engagement. Our assistant services have been integral to their expansion strategy and have helped them optimize their implementation and drive measurable outcomes. Now this outcome-based approach has delivered significant results. We had a 60% increase in total deal value in the most recent renewal. We've had 180% increase in cloud monthly active users, demonstrating accelerating digital adoption across their global operations as they execute world-class infrastructure projects. And a quantified business impact has been found to be roughly 130,000 hours per year in time savings to our consulting services. That equates to over 62 FTEs and productivity gains per year from Mott MacDonald.
Now I thought you'd like to hear directly from them. So here's Mott MacDonald Global Chief Technology Officer, Cory Dippold, discussing our trusted relationship and how it's helped them better serve their clients.
[Presentation]
Cory, tell us a little bit about yourself and about Mott MacDonald.
Mott MacDonald is a pretty good-sized engineering and advisory consulting firm, primarily involved in like civil infrastructure, major project delivery. We have different sectors in buildings, energy, water, transportation. In 2007, we did our very first EBA with Autodesk...
Enterprise Business agreements for everybody?
Yes. And I think that was one of the very first ones that we did. And that really kicked off this partnership that we've developed. And I can tell you as part of our sort of major project delivery team now that the relationship we have with Autodesk has grown from that of a client vendor to really a partner relationship where some of the jobs that we have are so big and so complex now that I don't know how we would even tackle them without the thinking and the leadership and some of the insight that Autodesk can bring to the table.
As you look over the horizon and you think about the future, what excites you the most?
The built environment has flourished, right? And it's really delivered higher value outcomes to the people. But in a lot of cases, that's come at the expense of the natural environment. And the tools and the technology, the thinking, the leadership that we have working together, I think, really allows us to go face some of those more complex challenges on a global type scale, which I'm really excited about. I think we're going to do -- we're going to have the opportunity to work on some truly mega projects together that can be transformative for both environmental benefits and human benefits that will be here for...
Centuries to come, love that.
I'm really proud of the work we've done with Mott MacDonald and look forward to continuing this long-term strategic relationship. We are also evolving our go-to-market model through our global partner ecosystem with a focus on moving our solution providers from transactions to strategic value creation. We're doing that by providing solution providers with enhanced high fidelity data captured from the new transaction model. As such, we can provide a complete view of a customer to our partners. Now this was not possible in a buy-sell model. Our solution providers are now focused on value creation by offering value-added consulting services and IP development. In addition, as we move to our design and make platform, integration services will be a big source of growth for our partners.
And finally, we are reshaping our channel framework to further incent solution providers' focus on new customer acquisition and expansion of existing customer businesses. Now as I've done in past sessions, I want to provide an update on the scale and coverage we get from our solution providers. We currently have approximately 1,260 solution providers and distributors representing Autodesk in approximately 190 countries around the world. And for each sales or customer success person employed by Autodesk, we have approximately 3x that number of people through our solution providers. Now over the past several years, we have seen significant partner consolidation, which has been good for our customers, our partners and Autodesk, and we expect to continue that in the future.
Now let's move on to the third section, how we're set to drive sustainable growth by driving efficiencies and optimizations in the business while executing numerous growth levers. First, we'll focus on efficiencies and optimization in our go-to-market approach. We'll continue to remove friction from the new transaction model, enabling solution providers to focus more time on creating value with customers. We're automating more capabilities valuable to customers, enabling them to self-serve for renewals and many account management requirements. Now these are things that required Autodeskers or partners to complete in the past. Internally, we're leveraging AI and automations for repeatable, scalable tasks, giving us more time back for value-added activities.
We're also focused on simplifying our processes and eliminating duplicate tasks and responsibilities, leading to reduced operational complexity. And I'm pleased that the changes that we made earlier this year have gone well and are producing benefits. And I'm excited by the numerous growth levers and opportunities we have at our disposal. We will continue to drive more growth via our Autodesk stores by driving higher traffic and conversions. The new transaction model will enable us to drive higher renewal rates via automation, self-service, auto renew and just having better data. Now that better data will also enable our solution providers to identify incremental expansion opportunities within our installed base. Expansion will be further supported by the changes we're making in our channel framework.
Our high-growth businesses, construction, infrastructure, Fusion continue to be great opportunities for accelerated growth. And we have numerous new monetization opportunities in front of us. We're modernizing our subscription success offerings and have released our new high-value business offering, which replaces our premium offering. As mentioned earlier by Raji, we're monetizing access to our APIs and developing high-value MCP servers. And as I mentioned earlier, we're developing a design and make marketplace that will create modernization opportunities.
So to summarize, Autodesk is positioned for its next chapter of growth. Through the transformation of our go-to-market system, we have built a foundation for sustainable growth while enabling us to remain agile and flexible as market conditions change. Our go-to-market model evolution enables us to enhance customer value through improved experiences, best-in-class business models and ecosystem collaboration and our focus on driving efficiencies while executing on numerous growth levers positions Autodesk for sustainable long-term growth. On that, I want to thank you for listening, and it is now time for our next break. We will see you back here shortly.
[Break]
Thank you, Steve. Hi, everyone. I'm Janesh Moorjani, the CFO of Autodesk.
It's great to talk with all of you today and share how we are driving sustainable and efficient growth at scale. Here's what I'll cover. I'll start by discussing how Autodesk has transformed itself over the last decade to become a larger and more cash-generative business as well as a more resilient and less volatile business while also building the foundations for the future. Then I'll describe how we are driving sustainable growth and efficiency at scale by diving into our core financial principles, our revenue growth, margin and capital allocation approach as well as how we will simplify our story. So let's start with our foundations. You just heard Steve talk about our proven track record of successful business transformations. We've strategically and methodically executed several internal transformations over the years that have enabled us to stay ahead of market trends while building a foundation for the future. We set out this high-level road map for these transformations at our September 2021 Investor Day, which you can see here on this slide. Since then, there's been a lot of hard work behind the scenes to ensure these transformations work and continue to be successful. We've also been rebuilding our internal technology stack from legacy on-premise systems to a modern SaaS-based tech stack that supports closer customer integration and efficient growth. As Amy, Jeff and Diana talked about earlier, we've also transformed our product portfolio in 3 important ways. First, shifting from product only to product platform and capabilities.
Second, we've been connecting adjacent and end-to-end workflows to deliver more value to our customers, expand our addressable market and deliver a seamless customer experience across design and make. For example, we extended our reach into construction. And as Raji talked about, we've been building our platform services to enable automation of manual workflows, improve interoperability across tools and have more common components, less technical debt and greater efficiency. These things all come together to serve as a strong foundation for our future in AI. Autodesk has been investing in AI technology across our models and products for years, dramatically expanding what's possible across the entire project life cycle for customers while eliminating repetitive work that hinders productivity. For investors, these changes and investments have meaningfully increased the value of our business in 3 key ways. First, we are obviously a much larger business that is generating a lot more cash. Second, we've become a substantially more resilient and less volatile business. This is in part due to significantly more predictable recurring revenue and in part from the shift to annual billings for most contracts, which you see reflected in more long-term unbilled revenue and less long-term deferred revenue and which results in more stable annual free cash flow for the company. You also see this resilience reflected in the breadth and depth of our business by geography, product category and customer size.
And third, and most importantly, for the discussion today, we've developed new ways to deliver more value to customers, which at the same time, enable growth and efficiency for Autodesk. For example, we have a growing direct business, which helps us better serve our customers by providing them with more data across more workflows with greater automation and self-service and making it easier for them to build AI and data-driven applications on our platform so they can deliver more value to their customers. We also have a growing consumption business, which today balances the flexibility and value of usage-based models with the resilience of subscription-like revenue streams. Consumption models encourage standardization on our platform, bringing more users into our ecosystem and allow us to capture the value of cloud-intensive usage like AI. And as you know, we've extended our presence across the entire life cycle stretching from design through make and increasingly into operations.
So to summarize, by transforming our foundations over the last decade, we have created a larger and more cash-generative business that is more resilient and less volatile while also building the foundations for the future. Our results so far this year demonstrate the strength of these foundations. All right. Let's turn to the future and talk about how we intend to deliver sustainable growth and efficiency at scale, starting with our financial principles. Autodesk is guided by 4 financial principles that provide us with a framework for the future. Our first principle is to drive consistent and strong organic revenue growth by delivering more value to our customers and driving new expansion and renewal dollars higher. Our investments in BIM and construction are good examples of this. Second, to balance our natural operating leverage with disciplined investment in future growth opportunities. Our steady investments in AI over the last decade are a good example of this. These investments have placed us well ahead of industry peers while also positioning us to scale AI more efficiently.
Third, to drive predictable and efficient cash flow growth as we finish the billings transition and maintain our efficient approach to working capital and capital expenditures. Our transition to annual billings for most multiyear contracts is the best example of this. And finally, our fourth principle is to deploy cash to the highest return opportunities through focused high potential organic investments, targeted and tuck-in acquisitions and returning cash to investors through share repurchases that reduce share count over time. Our reduction in share count over many years is a good example of this. Now I'd like to move on to our financial framework, which builds on these principles and focuses on the controllable operating and financial actions that will ultimately drive free cash flow per share. Let's address each of these now, starting with revenue growth. You can see here some of the long-standing drivers behind our industry growth that we've shared before. At the heart of it, there is durable demand from our customers to digitize and connect workflows end-to-end, benefit from innovation and automation and drive greater efficiency and productivity in their businesses. This applies across our 3 industries. These are secular growth drivers of overall market expansion across cycles. In any particular year, various external factors and adoption drivers can influence the market growth and our growth. Andrew, Raji, Jeff, Diana, Amy and Steve have already talked about how we are realizing the potential of these secular growth drivers with growth in our core, unlocking expansion opportunities and convergence within and between industries. You've seen these efforts translate into consistent underlying revenue growth over the past 2 years, and the momentum continues in this year, too, positioning us well for the future. So let me talk about how we are thinking about capturing the significant additional value we will be delivering to customers through AI task workflow and systems automation.
AI will enable us to deliver much more value to customers to drive productivity, efficiency and growth in their businesses. We showed many examples of this at our user conference, Autodesk University recently. We believe this will ultimately expand our total addressable market as we help our customers generate higher value-added solutions for their customers. We've already begun to integrate AI-enabled task automation to some of our products, and we are monetizing that through the subscription price. Over time, consumption models will be the best way to capture the additional value delivered by AI automation, particularly workflow and systems automation because we expect that both humans and new machines will drive future usage of our technology over time. So how do we think about our future growth? Our starting point is the industries we serve and our ability to drive the adoption of our technology. As you can see here, about half of our business is in AECO, just over 1/4 in AutoCAD, just under 20% is in manufacturing and the rest is in media and entertainment. Within each industry, there are different products at different stages of the maturity cycle. We have our core products that are category defining and a key part of our renewal base. Some of these products have long-standing growth drivers that will sustain growth for many years. For example, the adoption of building information modeling remains an important driver of Revit's growth. Then there are our newer products, which typically grow much faster than the industry and our key sources of new customer growth and expansion with existing customers. While Fusion and Construction are the most advanced examples of this, we have others like Forma and Tandem and Flow that are at an earlier stage in their maturity profile.
This healthy mix of our business means we have generally been able to grow faster than the industry as we create new TAM and are well positioned for sustained growth in the future. Our expansion into make and operate enabled by our industry cloud platform and AI underpin that faster growth. You've seen these growth businesses help us deliver consistent underlying revenue growth over the past 2 years with healthy momentum continuing into this year. And there is a long runway of growth potential ahead of us given the size of the make and operate opportunity relative to our business today. Let's turn to the second element of our financial framework, profitability. We are guided here by our second financial principle, which is to balance our natural operating leverage with disciplined investment to grow. We have already demonstrated that there is operating leverage inherent in our model, and this gives us the flexibility to both invest organically in the business and drive operating margin expansion to achieve our fiscal '29 margin goal.
Let me give you some examples of these initiatives by category. Looking first at gross margin. Cloud workloads, while accretive to gross profit dollars, will have lower gross margin than desktop design. So as they increase in mix, they will have an impact on our aggregate gross margin. Additionally, as we include some AI components in product subscriptions, that will put upward pressure on cloud costs. In consumption-based models, we will naturally be better positioned to align pricing to usage. Partially offsetting these factors is a series of initiatives designed to optimize our infrastructure as we scale and drive unit costs lower even as we build out our presence across more regions globally. For example, standardization on current and cost-effective infrastructure, enabling workload portability, reduce overhead and technical debt, financial operations that enable timely decisions on speed, cost and quality and cloud investments; and of course, standard hygiene processes to optimize cloud resource utilization. In sales and marketing, we've been driving go-to-market optimization, which includes many benefits for us that we've discussed before, including building more direct connections with customers, enabling us to serve them better, integrating more deeply into their workflows and providing them with additional and higher value services driven by data.
We are executing multiple initiatives across fiscal '26 and '27 that will help us realize greater sales and marketing efficiency. Examples of those already in flight include automating standard workflows within Autodesk, enabling our go-to-market teams to focus on the highest value work while reducing cost per interaction, deploying more self-service and Auto Renew to increase our productivity and streamlining customer interactions between Autodesk and our partners to reduce duplicative work so that they can focus on value-add activities. Let's move on to research and development. As I said earlier, our R&D investment will remain strong as we invest in our industry cloud platform and AI. We will help our customers solve their biggest productivity and efficiency problems as we deliver these technology benefits to them. We are committed to staying ahead of the curve on innovation to sustain our long-term growth and competitive advantage. As we invest in R&D, we are also reducing our technical debt, building more common components and increasing engineer productivity using AI. For example, we are deploying AI productivity tools such as Cursor to our engineering teams and continuing to integrate and rationalize our portfolio of offerings.
Let's finish with G&A. In the G&A functions, we carried heavier investments as we went through our business model transitions. We are now focused on optimizing for scale with a balanced global G&A workforce. We see opportunities to leverage AI in G&A to boost our productivity, and we are focused on standardizing and simplifying our processes and systems. Let's move on to our margin outlook. The net effect of our growth and profitability framework is that we expect significant operating profit dollar and underlying operating margin growth. We are driving higher margin from the efficiency gains from the initiatives I've just described, combined with inherent operating leverage generated from revenue growth in our business despite gross margin pressure. Assuming no material change in the external environment, we expect reported non-GAAP operating margin of 41% in fiscal '29. Our reported non-GAAP operating margin outlook of 41% represents an improvement of approximately 500 basis points since we started to scale the new transaction model at the end of fiscal '24.
On an underlying basis, which excludes the impact of the new transaction model as it fully scales, this will be an improvement of approximately 900 basis points since fiscal '24. Let's turn to the third element of our financial framework, cash flow. As you can see here, the shift to annual billings for most multiyear contracts reflected financially in the shift from long-term deferred revenue to long-term unbilled means there is now a much tighter correlation between net income and free cash flow starting this year. In the coming years, we expect net income to continue to be the key driver of free cash flow with a much tighter correlation of net income to free cash flow on an annual basis. Now let's move on to our capital allocation framework. Here, we are guided by our financial principle to deploy cash to the highest return opportunities. We will continue to prioritize organic investment in R&D and accelerate the realization of our strategy with targeted and tuck-in acquisitions. And we will maintain a healthy buyback program with the goal of reducing share count over time. We're also committed to maintaining our investment-grade credit rating. As you can see here, over the past several years, we have significantly increased our share repurchase program and reduced our share count. And we have made acquisitions opportunistically when we find the right asset at the right price. Over last year and this year, we've applied approximately 50% of our free cash flow towards share buybacks. Subject to acquisitions, which by their nature, are harder to predict, we expect to maintain a similar level over a multiyear period. Now let's double-click on stock-based compensation. Dilution is a real economic cost to shareholders, and we are intent on managing it tightly.
We are focused on a few key operating actions, managing our hiring volumes, locations and levels, our compensation mix and our equity program structure. We have already been taking several actions in these areas. We have begun to see the impact of these actions reflected in SBC gradually reducing as a percentage of revenue, and we are driving SBC to below 10% of revenue. We have already made significant progress on this journey and expect to get to below our 10% target level within the next couple of years. The slowing rate of dilution from stock-based compensation reinforces the impact of our growing share repurchase program to continue reducing share count over time. So to bring it all together, to achieve our fiscal '29 margin outlook, we expect consistent and strong organic revenue growth by delivering more value to customers, which drives new, renewal and expansion dollars. Consistent and strong gross profit growth even while gross margins trend lower over time.
We expect growing AI and cloud service costs to be partly offset by consumption-oriented models and operational efficiencies. Sales and marketing as a percentage of revenue to fall, reflecting our sales and marketing optimization plan. R&D as a percentage of revenue to be broadly stable, reflecting investments in industry cloud platform and AI, offset by efficiencies from less technical debt, more common components and increased engineer productivity from AI. G&A as a percent of revenue to be down over time driven by scale and optimization. And the balance of operating leverage and disciplined investment in future growth drives operating margin to our 41% goal. And then stock-based compensation as a percentage of revenue decreases to under 10%, as I just mentioned. So to summarize, we intend to deliver consistent and strong organic revenue growth, non-GAAP operating margin of 41% in fiscal '29 and a lower share count over time. Let me also touch on the evolution of how we will describe our business in the future. Many of you have told us that our successes and overlapping business model transitions have been critical to Autodesk's future, they have made it hard to understand and analyze Autodesk.
So we're working to simplify the story. Most importantly, as the noise from our business model transitions begins to fade, our traditional metrics will be more useful again. As soon as practical, therefore, we will again focus on as reported and constant currency metrics. And we'll also look to eliminate or replace legacy metrics. We will share details on relevant changes in future earnings calls. I'll conclude with a summary of what I've shared with you today. Autodesk has transformed its foundations over the last decade, creating a larger and more cash-generative business that is more resilient and less volatile while also building foundations for future growth and efficiency. Consistent and strong organic revenue growth as well as balancing our natural operating leverage with disciplined investment for growth will enable us to deliver our fiscal '29 margin goal. Our focus on managing dilution from stock-based compensation reinforced by the impact of our growing share repurchase program and underpinned by more consistent free cash flow generation will reduce share count over time.
And with that, Andrew, I'll hand it back to you to bring us home. Thank you.
Thanks, Janesh, and thank you to all for staying with us through what I hope has been an informative and compelling morning. Before we move to Q&A, I want to close this session by telling you why I'm more confident than ever that Autodesk's best days are ahead of us. In my introduction this morning, I told you our business model transformations are complete. We successfully navigated one of the most comprehensive business model transitions in enterprise software history. Janesh showed you how this transformation built financial resilience and has unlocked sustainable growth. Our product and platform leaders demonstrated how Forma, Fusion and Flow provide the foundation for an entirely new way of working. And Steve showed you how we've reinvented how we engage with customers, shifting from 2-tier distribution to direct relationships and delivering a world-class experience at scale.
We didn't just move to subscription. We reimagined how the industries that design and make the world operate in a cloud-enabled AI-powered era, and we've emerged stronger and better positioned than ever. This is a result of planned, precise and deliberate strategic execution over many years. And now we're turning that market leadership into long-term shareholder value. Our AI strategy is deliberately sequenced. First, we're automating tasks, making the tedious disappear. We'll expand the automating workflows, augmenting our customers' capabilities and creativity. And soon, we'll be automating entire systems, enabling outcomes that were previously complex or impossible to achieve. As we do this, our business will move from primary seat-based subscriptions today to a blend of seats-based subscriptions, term-based consumption and system-based outcomes. This gives our customers more flexibility for complex and interconnected design and make options.
All of this is and will be powered by industry-leading foundation models that define the opportunity for extending vertical context and expertise into the new technological frontier of AI. What we do requires precision, and we intend to be the leader in providing that precision to our industries. And as you've seen today, while AI is an important part of building momentum for our business, at our core, we're breaking down the walls across the life cycle of our customers' projects and across industries, breaking siloed processes and enabling new processes. We're eliminating the friction between design, make and operate, powered by AI cloud for converging construction and manufacturing methods to enhance productivity and drive greater throughput, and we're collapsing the boundaries between the virtual and the physical.
From an architect's first sketch to a building's real-time performance optimization, from an engineer's first concept to managing throughput and uptime for mid-market factories, it all happens on Autodesk platform. And with every project, the system learns, improves and delivers more value back to our customers. Today, you've heard about some of the near-term opportunities ahead of us. In infrastructure alone, we're addressing a multitrillion dollar global market that's just beginning its digital transformation. Worldwide, we're entering a decades-long rebuilding effort that will all be designed and managed digitally and Autodesk is the platform making that possible.
In construction, we are transforming how projects move from design to build with customers seeing a 31% boost in productivity through automation, reshaping industry productivity. And in manufacturing, the convergence of cloud and AI is triggering a once-in-a-generation platform shift. Customers using Fusion are producing drawings in 50% less time, turning cloud and AI adoption into a competitive advantage.
The future of our industry is about delivering outcomes, imagining a world where AI agents can explore thousands of different design variations while you sleep, where digital twins continuously optimize themselves in real time, where the entire life cycle from design to build to operations is one seamless connected system. Autodesk is creating foundation models with neural technology that are redefining our IP and represents a massive untapped opportunity. Every decision, every optimization, every piece of creative output flowing through our platform becomes a new source of value creation.
Beyond that, we're expanding from design to make into operate. Operations represents a significant future opportunity across buildings, factories and infrastructure. We're helping customers not just create these assets, but also run them, optimize them and extract maximum value from them throughout the entire life cycle. This includes current high-growth areas like data centers and mid-market manufacturing.
So here's what I want you to remember as you leave today. Autodesk is defining the AI revolution for our industries. We're setting the standard and extending our lead across media and entertainment, infrastructure, construction and manufacturing, markets that will fuel our growth well into the next decade. We're creating new monetization streams and building a new vibrant third-party ecosystem that will not only make our solutions more valuable but enable these new monetization paths, and we're expanding into operations, opening entirely new horizons for growth. All this leaves us confident we'll maintain the current momentum of the business over the long term.
Five years ago, some of you wondered if a decades-old company could truly reinvent itself for the cloud era. Today, the answer is clear. Autodesk has emerged stronger, more agile and more efficient than ever before, positioned to lead in this next era. The industries we serve are entering the age of AI, and Autodesk is in the lead with our industry clouds Fusion, Forma and Flow, cloud-enabled, AI native and end-to-end. When Denver Airport speeds up their design and construction efforts by month, when Felton is saving weeks in development of their EV vehicles, when BAM gains back hundreds of hours through automation, it's proof that our strategy is working and a glimpse of the scale of what's to come.
Autodesk is building the future and the path to the future. Our best days and biggest growth opportunities are ahead of us. And I've never been more confident in the long-term value we are creating for our customers, for the industries that shape the world and for you, our shareholders. Thank you.
Welcome to the Q&A session, everyone. I hope those presentations were useful. I have all of the presenters here with me on stage and looking forward to hearing your questions. [Operator Instructions] Just while we collect some of those, I'm just going to throw one to Andrew. Andrew, can you just share the 3 key things you want investors to take away from today?
Yes. Look, the takeaway is really straightforward. We're in the lead in AI that's going to not only protect the renewal base and the recurrent business we have, but it's going to drive expansion of our business over the long term. We also have multiple growth vectors for our business and these all play out over different time horizons, which is again another great outcome for providing steady, predictable growth for the company moving forward. And finally, we have a clear path to margin expansion for the company. Those are the 3 things, I think, that are really important from what we said today.
Fantastic. So let's move on to some of your questions. Jay Vleeschhouwer, Griffin Securities. At AU, the company spoke of disrupting ourselves, rebuilding the IP stack and no one gets left behind. Those are individually difficult to do. How do you foresee managing these collectively as internal and external executables?
That's a hard question to pronounce. Yes. All right. I'll take that one. All right. So Jay, thanks for this question. First off, this type of motion is a core competency for Autodesk. We've already done it several times. We did it with Inventor, we did it with Revit. In many ways, we did it with construction. And the way we're managing this internally is we got a head start on this. It was many years ago that we started our efforts in AI and looking at what kind of foundation models made sense to replace our IP stack in the future over 7 years ago that we started some of this work. So we've been working on foundation models for quite some time. You see some of those things rolled out at AU and you see some of the impacts. So we've been building the parallel stack while we've been improving the existing products over time.
Now when you look out into the future of how we deliver some of these things to our customers externally, we also have a good history of doing this. We evangelized the technology with our customers. We help them understand the value, but we also package them in a way that makes sure the customers get the new technology as they continue to invest and deploy our existing technology.
So for existing example, every Revit customer gets the form of building design capabilities that we talked about. So anything that overlaps Revit's core functionality is included in the collection, it's included with Revit. These are our tactics we've used year after year very successfully. It's how we drove Inventor, it's how we drove Revit and it's how we manage both the internal and external processes on this transition.
Fantastic. So let's move on to Adam Borg at Stifel. Question for Steve. Can you provide actual customer examples of how the new transaction model is leading to better renewal rates and/or additional cross-sells with a more granular understanding of customers with a direct relationship?
So Adam, thanks for the question. And just let me give you a reminder of where we are with the new transaction model because we're still in early days. So we completed the rollout in Q1, when the construction products went live on the new transaction model in North America. We've lapped now the first year of renewals in Americas, in North America in June, and we just passed the 1-year anniversary date in EMEA. So still early days of getting folks through the system. As a reminder, we have customers that have 3-year contracts out there. So it will take customers up to 3 years to get through the system and into the new transaction model. We're really excited about the high fidelity data that we're capturing.
As a reminder, we can now provide all of the customer data once a customer is on the new transaction model to our partners. That was something that we could not do in a buy-sell model. So we expect this will drive incremental renewal rates, improvements in our renewal rates, plus help our partners identify new expansion opportunities, and we are starting to see those pop up in our pipeline. So early days, a lot more to come. We've built our expectations into guidance for what's going to happen with renewal rates and expansion opportunities. So we're very, very pleased with where we are so far in this transition.
So let's move on to Taylor McGinnis at UBS. In infrastructure, what's driving the interest in chasing this opportunity today versus the past? Is it more under penetrated versus other areas, more resilient versus commercial today, et cetera? And what are you doing differently either on the product side or go-to-market side?
Yes, I'm going to hand that one directly to Amy. Amy?
Thank you, Andrew. So a couple of things are driving the interest. Obviously, it's a huge market and what is working in our favor is that the projects are getting more and more complex. So that's requiring people to digitize further. And for Autodesk, we're able to bring building information modeling directly into infrastructure, and we're also now able to connect design and make with the Autodesk Construction Cloud. So we have quite a few things working for us as people are needing to do more digitization and rethink their existing legacy tool set as they move forward.
So let's move on to Nay Soe Naing from Berenberg. How should we think about Inventor's future with Autodesk product within Autodesk product portfolio? Will it merge with or get absorbed into Fusion? As the focus shifts more towards Fusion, how do you plan to ensure there is no limited customer churn within the inventor customer base?
I think this is a perfect question for Jeff.
Thank you, Andrew. Thanks for the question. You can think about Inventor as a connected client to Fusion with a long future in our product portfolio. It's similar to how we think about Revit and Forma. Both Inventor and Fusion are growing nicely. And what we actually see more is complementary usage of both Inventor and Fusion as shown in the Molto Luce example during my presentation.
Now this is a result of targeting specific markets for Inventor and for Fusion. But what we've heard is Fusion -- sorry, Inventor users like some of the features they see in Fusion. So that drives that complementary behavior. Over -- in the future, we think Fusion and our industry clouds is where you're going to find breakthrough productivity gains, where customers are going to find breakthrough productivity gains, but we're committed to making that path very smooth by having connected clients that work really well with our industry clouds.
Brilliant. So let's move on to Elizabeth Porter, Morgan Stanley. You've completed the rollout of the new transaction model and mentioned during the optimization phase earlier this year. Can you provide specific metrics on the sales and marketing efficiency gains achieved so far? And how we should think about the time line in reaching the FY '29 margin target?
Clearly, a good question for Janesh.
Happy to take that. Thank you, Elizabeth. So as everyone knows, we initiated the optimization phase of the whole go-to-market plan earlier this year. And through that, we made a number of changes along the way. We had the reduction in force that we did in February, and that has helped drive some of the near-term efficiencies that gave us room to reinvest in some of the capabilities that we are building out and will hold us in good stead for the next set of optimizations that we need to drive.
If I think about the progress that we've made so far, you'll see it in a number of different ways. For example, we talk about the strength in the store and that reflects partly the strength of the direct selling motion. But ultimately, you'll see that reflected in the sales and marketing as a percentage of revenue. So as I think about our path to achieving our fiscal '29 margin target that we've laid out, continued sales and marketing optimization is part of that journey. And you saw me describe a number of different levers in that regard. There's also the continued operating leverage that we will have in the business.
And the one thing that I'll just remind folks of is that in fiscal '27, we will have an incremental headwind associated with the new transaction model as that fully scaled, and that's been considered in the overall margin target that we set for '29 as well. Our path to achieving that number will therefore be nonlinear.
And Elizabeth if you're modeling it, if you look at sales and marketing as a percent of premium -- excluding new transaction model costs and then revenue, excluding new transaction model costs, you'll see apples-to-apples, that ratio beginning to tick in the right direction over quarters.
So Clarke Jeffries at Piper Sandler. What are the financial benefits from bringing more of the company's AEC functionality into Forma? Do you plan to onboard customers who may have been Revit only or to gather on new customers in the past to more and more, i.e., or is this Construction Cloud? Would you consider developing AI features for -- well, now Forma Construction formally Autodesk Construction Cloud.
Another good question for Amy.
So a couple of things here about our strategy with Forma. First, as Andrew mentioned earlier and I spoke about, we are making sure that our Revit installed base can come with us to the future. So all Revit customers whether they're in the collection or stand-alone are getting the Forma site design and the Forma building design. So this really will enable them to be on this journey to the future with us. And then we've delivered -- we're delivering these Forma connected client capabilities so that there's seamless workflows between the two.
Now on the AutoCAD side, Forma represents a significant opportunity for us to help the people who've never really adopted BIM, experience BIM in a new way. So the AutoCAD installed base, many of the architects out there that are not yet using BIM represent a net new opportunity for us here with Forma.
And then a couple of things about the Construction Cloud. So we absolutely have lots of AI inside the Construction Cloud. And our ability to put both design and make data in Autodesk Docs, now Autodesk Forma Data Management will allow us to create insights and deliver AI capabilities that span the entire project life cycle, which is a huge unique advantage for us here at Autodesk.
Fantastic. So let's move on to Michael Turrin at Wells Fargo. You mentioned API monetization a few times during the presentations, we did. It sounded like we'll start to roll out at year-end. Are customers ready for that? And how do you communicate the value proposition there, clearly to help ensure the transition as seamless as possible?
Perfect question for Raji.
As you know, at the AU, we actually announced the fact that we're going to start rolling out this stuff and customers are ready for that. One of the key things that they have -- you have seen in my presentation, we talked about the growth that you have seen in APIs and our customers are seeing value. And when they see value, they want to be able to have the predictability to understand what parts of it is included in their subs and what parts of it is a nontypical use that we can actually monetize.
And I think we're in such a great place because we have rolled out consumption-based model for a long time, and this is a fantastic time for us to actually start using it for a capacity-based consumption model. And they like the predictability of us announcing it, getting ready for that. They see value. There will be more growth that you see in APIs with all the MCP and agenetic workflows, and this is a great time for us to sort of really create that rate cards that they can use.
Fantastic. Thank you, Raji. So Adam Borg at Stifel again. It would be great to walk through an example of what the APIs are to understand it a bit better, and the value customers derive from calling them? How does revenue recognition work for consumption-based API? And how does a shift to consumption-based pricing impact the model?
Yes. Given that Raji kind of answered the first part of that question, I'm going to hand this over to Janesh to talk about the revenue recognition.
So I'll touch on that. And you'll have seen in some of the prepared content that consumption makes up about 17% of our revenue. And the vast majority of that has actually been ratable revenue recognition with a small amount, which is largely for Flex being primarily usage-based. Over time, as machine usage expands, I think there will be more usage-based revenue recognition that comes into the model. But that will play out over a relatively long period of time. And just given the size of the business that we have in the aggregate, it's not going to be a meaningful driver in the near term, but that is something that we will keep a close eye on and will continue to monitor over time.
Okay. So let's go back to Michael Turrin at Wells Fargo. How can we think about the impact to gross margins as you grow your cloud products? Is there a certain time frame you're thinking of? And is this factored into the long-term fiscal '29 gross margin target?
Again, to Janesh, yes.
Great. I'm sure there will be more than one that I'll have to take. But as I think about -- Michael, to answer the second part of the question first and to give you the punch line, it is factored into the fiscal '29 overall operating margin target that we laid out. In terms of how we think about it, though ultimately, the -- as cloud workloads increase in mix, they are gross profit dollars accretive. So we do look forward to that.
And the faster they scale that would actually be representative of our strategy working with respect to AI and cloud. So actually, from my perspective, that's a great thing for us. Ultimately, the pace and adoption will vary based on how quickly we roll out products, how quickly that technology is adopted. It will depend on a number of external factors as well. I do think it plays out over a long period of time like I just mentioned. But overall, we feel pretty positive about the direction and the trajectory for us.
So let's go to Saket Kalia at Barclays. Janesh, you talked about consistent organic growth, and you've talked about reaching 41% in margins in fiscal '29 in a range of different growth scenarios. Can you put a finer point on those growth scenarios and what a sustainable growth rate looks like?
Yes. So I'll take that, Andrew. Saket, I'm happy to describe that. I think it's the way I would describe the overall assumptions underlying the long-term margin target that we laid out, which I described on the earnings call as well. So if I just step back and look at the business overall first half, we've been growing at a very consistent rate over the last couple of years. And fiscal '26 is no different. We've got sustainable and consistent, resilient revenue growth in the business. We've also spelled out a number of growth drivers for you in terms of what the future might look like and all the different initiatives that we've got underway and the opportunity set that lies ahead of us, as you can see, is very rich. So we feel very good about our future as well.
That said, as I mentioned just a minute ago, the path to AI adoption and the pace of adoption of some of these technologies is something that we'll be monitoring carefully over time. The other factor is also to keep in mind just what might happen in the broader macro environment over that period of time as well as the go-to-market optimization that we've got underway, and we want to make sure that we execute well through that. So I think those are some of the factors that we considered. And that's why as we, on balance, considered all of these some puts, some takes. We focused on the 41% margin target instead, which we think is achievable under a range of growth scenarios.
Great. So let's go to Matt Hedberg at RBC. Can you help us understand how the global build-out of the new power facilities and AI data centers can it help drive growth in infrastructure and construction and how we should think about the monetization time line?
Yes, Matt. So this is another great example of why Autodesk diversification is so important for the company. People were talking about, oh, commercial real estate is going to be in a slump for a while. And one of the things I always said was that something else will be going on that fills that hole and this is a great example. Digital infrastructure is a great example of something that is filling lots of capacity right now for building.
And if we're not involved in the design side, we're involved in the construction side, but most of the time we're involved in both the design and construction of these facilities. So as long as these facilities continue to be built, we're going to be involved in these. These are going to be growth drivers for both our design business and our construction business. And as we move into the future, other things in our diversified portfolio will light up and allow us to continue growth over multiple time frames.
I was actually chatting to one of our construction folks a few days ago, and he said that data centers are complex pieces of kit. And so complexity means you need BIM, building information modeling and also means you need to have site coordination so the Construction Cloud. So those are sort of some of the things underpinning what Andrew was just saying.
So let's move on to Robert Kober from Avala Global. Global BIM penetration was stated to be 22% globally, which seems very low. Are there big international markets in particular that have hit the turning point on BIM adoption such that Autodesk is set to see accelerating growth internationally.
I'm going to turn that one over to Amy. Amy?
So yes, it does seem low, which you could view as a potential opportunity for us going forward. Despite all these years, and all the adoption, there's still a tremendous opportunity to expand in BIM. I will say the mature markets like the U.S., the U.K., parts of mature Europe, they are over 50% adopted.
However, again, there's still a lot of interesting opportunity there. And then if we look at countries like India, Saudi Arabia, ASEAN, some of those regions, there's definitely additional opportunity for us to grow even faster there. As they're working on some pretty complex projects and you cannot really start these projects without BIM, so that's going to drive faster growth there as well.
Fantastic. [Operator Instructions] So let's move on to Daniel Jester of BMO. In Andrew's talk, you spoke about opportunities to grow in operations. Can you expand more about how you envisage targeting these use cases and tie to digital twins and how they can be leveraged to bolster the linkage between the design and operations aspect of a project? Good question.
Yes. So Daniel, it's a good question. First off, one of the ways to think about this is why I want to think about our operations move as very similar to what we did in construction and some of the moves and motions that we did to drive that very successful outcome will be applied in the operations space as well.
So in construction, we started with basically a digital punch list and some preconstruction tools associated with Navisworks and expanded. You can see we're in preconstruction planning. We're in site management now. We're in deep aspects of how people actually stitch together and plan out the entire process of construction. So we've built out a whole portfolio that touches on all dimensions of construction.
When you look at operations, we're coming in with a strong foundation with Tandem around digital twins. And we also have a strong foundation around having the BIM model flowing into the process as part of a newly built out system. We're also in a leadership position in tools that take point cloud data and turn them into building information modeling data. So that's another factor we bring into some of this space. So a great example is look what's happening with data centers, all right?
We have a BIM model. It can go straight into a digital twins. These are highly asset-intensive facilities that have multiple cooling systems, multiple power systems, all of which have to be understood and monitored over time. But also you want to alert people if things fail. So you can see us climbing up the pyramid of an analytical twin all the way up to a predictive twin that's actually proactively identifying problems and assigning people to fix those problems over time. We intend to be across that whole life cycle of operations and ultimately come back down to design-driven -- design for operations type workflows in the future. So look for us to connect it, very similar to what we did with construction.
Do you want to talk a bit more about that as systems automation, how you pull that back-end data early into the design process and why?
Yes, because over time, as you operate a facility and you do rev 2 or rev 3, we can then apply some of that intelligence back into the design process and help the customer or the owner design a better next rev of the building or the facility or the factory or whatever it is or the infrastructure, the water infrastructure and do it better, the second, third or fourth time. And that's an important cycle that we'll be able to create over a long time. So operations is a very long-term growth potential for us, and it's also a great way of stabilizing the business as we move into a very long part of the life cycle of any built asset.
Perfect. Saket Kalia, Barclays. Andrew, can you talk about how you envision customers moving to one of your 3 industry clouds? And does that have to happen in order for customers to unlock some of the value you're starting to deliver through AI?
So I'll answer the second part of that first, and then I'll go to the first part. So the industry clouds are definitely the AI native parts of our portfolio. However, there's a couple of ways AI gets into our customers' environment. One is some of these deep automations that are built on foundation models. A lot of those are going to show up in the industry clouds. But the other is the Autodesk Assistant, which connects various workflows across our products down into other products.
So you saw the Autodesk Assistant at AU working with Revit, doing things inside of Revit. You've seen it doing things inside of Maya. You're going to see that with the Autodesk assistant. You're going to see agenetic workflows managing across not just Revit operations, but across multiple workflows. But some of these really heavy foundation model-driven workflows show up much more prevalently in some of our industry clouds than they do elsewhere. So that's important.
Now when we look at how we envision customers moving to these 3 industry clouds. One, this is something we're really good at. This is a motion that we're really good at. Part of it is packaging. You package up the products in such a way that you expose them. We did a very good job of that with Fusion and Inventor. We believe Fusion is the fastest-growing design system in the market right now, and it has been for several years. We intend to continue to capitalize on that. And then what you're doing is you engage with grassroots evangelism. You help people understand what's working, what isn't working, what are you able to do with these products. And you're not only talk about it, but you get your customers talking about it.
And finally, to what I hear -- what I saw out to Jay's question, which is coming up, I believe, look, sometimes you'll actually go out and promote some of these solutions directly to the target audiences you want. Like on Amy's example of moving more Forma -- more AutoCAD customers to Forma, you'll go out there and you'll promote and you provide discounts to incent people to get on these things. So it's a multifaceted approach of packaging, evangelism and promotion. And we're really good at this. We've done it many, many times, and we're going to do it again.
Fantastic. So let's go back to Jay Vleeschhouwer at Griffin. How does the company think about its future propensity for time-limited offers, discounting promotions and the like as compared with its prior practices over many years?
Yes. So I'll say something and then I'll invite Steve to say something as well, all right? So first off, we're already doing a lot less discounting in our business. We don't discount to the degree that we used to, to sell our products. I think what you'll see us do in the future, and then I'll just -- I'll let Steve add on to this as well, is we'll do more strategic promotions designed to bring people to new technology or designed to bring them to deeper parts of the process.
So we'll engage in more targeted activities based on how we understand the customers because we do understand them better now in the new transaction model and actually deliver potential offers that match where they are in the adoption curve of various technologies. So much more targeted, much less broad-based and much more focused on bringing people either to new technologies or to new adjacencies.
Steve, do you want to add anything?
That was a great answer. So there's not that much to add. Just to reinforce our past, and I know, Jay, you're talking about our deep past where we were very focused on price promotions and really focusing on that price point. To Andrew's point, right now, we're focusing on being targeted, going after growth and expansion opportunities, getting into new markets. So we'll pick our places. We've done this really well with Fusion, and we'll do this again with Forma and some of our other items.
So now that we have this as one of our tools in our tool belt, but we'll use it effectively and efficiently where it makes sense. And we won't be going back to those broad pricing-oriented general kind of get your discount now and come here and then churn out afterwards, which is what happened a lot of times in the past. So we'll use this more strategically in the future.
And obviously, things like consumption business models enables our customers to try stuff much more easily as well. Flex is a great way of doing -- great example of that.
So moving on to Bhavin at Deutsche Bank. In the past, you spoke about the very large opportunity with the noncompliant user base. Where does this stack rank in the terms of growth drivers going forward, should the new transaction model help accelerate this?
So one of the things that's important about noncompliant usage is become run the business for us. This is built into our current momentum and growth trajectory. We've gotten very good at this. We'll cut several things on a technological move and a go-to-market move. We've made it much harder to pirate the product. As a matter of fact, pirates are moving to increasingly sophisticated ways of trying to hack into our products and pirate them. We're making it harder and harder.
Our go-to-market motion has established motions where we work with our customers and when we give examples regularly in earnings calls of how we're working with customers to help them get trued up and get fully compliant. So this is very much a run-the-business type of motion right now, and it's built into our current momentum and built into our current growth rates.
Fantastic. So let's move on to Blair Abernethy, Rosenblatt. Can you describe your view of the factory operations market? Where are the best opportunities for Autodesk? Do you have the products that you need in this segment and AI opportunities?
I'm going to hand that over to Jeff.
Sure. Thanks, Andrew, and thanks, Blair. Thanks for the question. Look, we're very excited by the surge in domestic manufacturing around the world. As I said earlier, every new factory is an opportunity for Autodesk. We are unique in that we can serve the plan, design, build and operate segments of a factory. Your question is specifically around factory operations. And we think there's lots of opportunities there.
We have some products that serve that. We have factory design utilities. We have FlexSim. We have Fusion operations, which is MES, manufacturing execution systems. So we have some products that serve this segment. We think there are more. We think there are more product capabilities that we can add, whether that's organic or inorganic. And we see big opportunities around supply chain and getting deeper into the manufacturing execution systems. And AI, to your question, AI is going to be a big enabler in this area. We think AI will drive a convergence across these historic 3-letter acronyms in ways that haven't been imagined before, and we feel very excited to capitalize on.
Fantastic. So let's go to Josh Tilton at Wolfe. And Josh, we have paraphrases just to make it a little shorter. Help provide us with guardrails in understanding what normal uplift is from providing improved value to customers with Flex as it seems to be the path forward for increased monetization, especially with AI development? How will API and PC monetization work?
Yes. So I'll take this one because I just want to kind of put a capsule around a little bit. So Josh, if you look at the future Autodesk customer, they're going to be a blend between seat-based subscriptions and Flex. Every customer is going to be working with a seat-based subscription or Flex to some degree. The percentages will vary by customer. This transition is going to happen gradually over time as customers explore and move deeper in new ways of working. This isn't an event. There's not a light switch that gets turned on or turned off. It happened gradually over time as people go deeper into some of these workflows.
In a lot of cases, what we'll have inside the subscription is there will be caps on certain types of features. Some task automations will just be -- that's part of your subscription. Others will have a cap. And as you rise above that cap, you'll start bleeding into your Flex bucket as a customer and pulling out things that provide you a huge value but are burned down as Flex consumption above and beyond the caps inside the products, right?
And also, what you'll see as we move into systems automation, at times, someone will just get paid for a one-off full systems-level answer or set of answers for a particular problem via consumption. But this blend will happen over time, and it will take time. So the path forward is this increasing blend of seat-based subscriptions and consumption-based Flex packages.
The API and PC monetization will work exactly the same way. It will be based on caps for subscriptions, there will be caps based on how much API calls you can make. And above that, you'll start bleeding into your consumption allocation. So that's the way you should think about it. And the one thing I want you to recognize, and it's really important is this just doesn't happen as a step function. It happens gradually over time, and it allows us to expand. And Flex is a great way to get our customers to try more of our life cycle solutions and more of the value-add we're going to be delivering with AI.
Brilliant. So let's go to Tyler Radke, Citi. On operations opportunity, how much of the $20 billion do you plan to build/address organically versus M&A of the $10 billion, $20 billion TAM, any guardrails on how much capital are you consider deploying towards M&A in this space?
So again, I will encourage you to look at this business the same way you might look at our -- how the way we execute on construction. With construction, we did some catalytic acquisitions that were associated with establishing us in certain functionality basis. We then built off of those acquisitions and established some great technology and some great new capabilities as a result of those. We already have a tremendous asset with Tandem that is actually more mature than some of the initial assets we had with construction, but look for us to follow a similar path to what we did with construction for operations.
And I'll just add that we would expect that to the extent we do these acquisitions, they will fit within the overall capital allocation framework that we outlined.
So Adam Borg at Stifel again. On your Media and Entertainment business, Sora 2 is impressive. And I wonder what kind of impact that has to your M&A, both positive or negative?
Activating Diana. Diana?
Thank you, Andrew. Thanks for the question. Our customers work in very high quality, high fidelity type of output especially when making games and movies and customers really are looking for that. So I think we're the -- and you'll see that in the presentation that I did, there's a lot of AI-enabled features that we are currently adding to most of our product line.
And I think the disruption is really at the lower end, right? And I think this is where Sora and that demo, which was impressive. And I think it's more on the lower end, but we're also well positioned there because we have Flow Studio, which is basically our response to that disruption in content creation in the future.
Great. So let's go to Steve Koenig, Macquarie. Can you give us more color on your road map for neuro capabilities including your vision for innovations for commodity design tasks and more value-added design activities?
Yes. So I'm going to hand this one over to Raji for commentary. So Raji?
From a neural capability perspective, you will see us actually deliver to both commodity design tasks and your high value-add design activities. And you've seen this because there's huge opportunity on the commodity design task low-hanging fruit across the board, which fall into the task automation bucket that we talked about. An example of that was the AutoConstrain feature that we launched out last year, which made a huge impact for the -- for customers like JDD.
And then the second part, you already see us actually starting to deliver with a high-value design we announced our NeuralCAD for geometry. And you saw some of us show of the air fryer example of the assembly and the NeuralCAD for buildings, which was some of the stuff that you saw Andrew kind of demo this across the building where we do both the external and internal design of the buildings using neural technology. So you'll see us span both but I think you'll see us also stepping into the high value-add design elements with neural technology.
Fantastic. So let's go back to Jay Vleeschhouwer, Griffin. Does building and supporting the consumption model entail anything materially different in terms of internal capacities, go-to-market, customer success, RPO effects, et cetera, as compared with supporting the subscription model?
So Jay, as you know, we are not neophytes to consumption. We saw the potential of consumption in our industry is well ahead of the rest of the industry and we have been actively engaged in not only using this consumption as a land motion or a motion for our enterprise business agreements, but as an expansion motion as well. We were the first to bring Flex to market. Flex is a volume-focused consumption package that we deliver for access to all of our products. We understand how the consumption model works, and we understand how to leverage it in a go-to-market framework in such a way that we can get more value from the customer over time by exposing them to more technology. So this is something that we've already built the systems and processes for and we know how to exploit. We were getting ready for just this moment.
And in terms of customer success, again, we learned a lot of things with enterprise business agreements that we have been taking down market to Flex, and we're expanding out to address some of these things. And these things happen over time. But I'm going to turn it over to Janesh to just comment on how these things evolve from an RPO perspective and other perspectives.
Yes. Jay, you've already seen us, as Andrew was saying, just build this into the business over time, right? So consumption is about 17% of our business today. Even with Flex, our customers by an annual contract in advance. So the RPO dynamics are very similar to what you would typically see in the business.
So I'm not expecting any significant change in our overall financial model in the near term. Over a longer period of time, as we said earlier, as these consumptive models increase in size and there's more usage-based models within that, you'll naturally see that start to play out, but I think that plays out over a much longer duration.
And Janesh, sorry, I was just a bit -- remember, we gave you the consumption percentage was 17%, and the vast majority of that is ratable already. So we already have a significant ratable consumption business.
So next one, Dan Reuter at Oberndorf Enterprises, explain in more detail the journey you have been on to build APS and how critical APS is -- Autodesk platform Services, sorry, is to enable AI features today and how this differentiates Autodesk from competitors? And what are the key remaining areas left to mature?
I'm going to hand that over to Raji again.
Thank you, Dan, for your question. Everything we have done to date over the years in APS is giving us huge leverage on AI. Couple of -- I want to give you 3 examples. Data granularity. The thing that we did in APS is hugely benefiting us from a neural technology around some of the generative AI aspects of what you saw. The second part was all of the APIs and MCPs and the one assistant, all of this is built in a platform way within APS, further accelerating agenetic AI.
The third one is our ML platform, which I alluded to also in the PowerPoint. It gives us compute cost and productivity benefits for internal employees, so we can actually build AI faster into our products. So this is not just done within one industry. We're doing this across all industries. So you get the benefit once done and centrally across the board. And I think we -- you asked a question around how do we know what's left to do? We're constantly looking for common capabilities that help us actually benefit across industries. So the same mantra build ones use multiple times, we're going to be able to do that across the board.
Okay. So let's ask a question from Ken Wong at Oppenheimer. Steve, direct is now 42% of revenue. Where does this settle out once you complete the agency transition and what is the right level long term? Maybe a Janesh question.
Yes. I'm happy to take that, Ken, and maybe then Steve, you can add as well. So Ken, you're right, direct was 42% of the business. It's increasing in mix. And if you look at the most recent quarters, it was even higher. In terms of where this eventually settles out, we've said before, it should be roughly 2/3 or a little bit higher than that in terms of the overall business mix. We will complete the overall transition to the new transaction model. It will scale next year. There will be a slightly longer tail beyond that. But next year is when we would expect most of it to be done. And that's how I would describe the evolution.
Steve, anything you'd add?
The only thing I'd add is the why behind that answer. As a reminder, the new transaction model applies in our mature markets. It's not in all of our markets. So we still have buy/sell in quite a few countries around the world, and we still use buy/sell as well for government business in North America and other countries. So by default, some business is going to stay in a buy/sell model. So that's the why behind the what of the answer Janesh just gave.
[Operator Instructions] I guess, Janesh, one for you, just to sort of talk a bit about how we're thinking about capital allocation going forward?
Yes. I know we're down to the last minute or so, Simon, so I'll keep this one relatively brief. No real changes in terms of our overall approach. I described that earlier in my presentation as well. We're going to focus mainly on organic investments and support that with targeted and tuck-in acquisitions. We're going to continue to maintain a healthy buyback program. And ultimately, our goal is to reduce our share count over time. And for debt holders out there, we will continue to maintain an investment-grade rating as well.
Great. So I think that's all we've got time for. Thank you, everyone, for coming along. I hope presentations and Q&A were useful. If you do have follow-up questions, please e-mail me, [email protected] and we will be happy to follow up as quickly as we can. And I hope it was useful. Thanks very much.
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Autodesk — Analyst/Investor Day - Autodesk, Inc.
Autodesk — Analyst/Investor Day - Autodesk, Inc.
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Autodesk sieht sich nach jahrelanger Transformation als Cloud‑ und AI‑Führer für Design‑ und Make‑Workflows; das Management betont, die Umstellung auf Abonnements, Consumption und Industry Clouds sei abgeschlossen.
- Wachstumsfelder: Priorität auf drei Industry Clouds (Forma, Fusion, Flow) mit Schwerpunkten Infrastruktur, Construction und Manufacturing sowie weitere Expansion in Operations (Digital Twins).
- Finanzfokus: Ziel ist eine Non‑GAAP‑Betriebsmarge von 41% in Fiskaljahr '29; gleichzeitig Ausbau von konsumptionsbasierten Monetarisierungswegen.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- AI‑Sequenz: Fokusstufen Task → Workflow → Systems Automation; Autodesk Assistant und domänenspezifische Foundation‑Modelle (Neural CAD) sind Kernstücke.
- Plattform & APS: Autodesk Platform Services (APS) liefert gemeinsame Daten-, API‑ und ML‑Funktionen; Ziel: wiederverwendbare Komponenten, regionale Datenhaltung und API‑Monetarisierung.
- GTM‑Evolution: Wechsel vom Buy‑Sell zu direkten Transaktionen plus Partner‑Agency‑Modell; mehr Self‑Service, bessere Kundendaten, gezielte Promotionen und Flex/Consumption als On‑ramp.
🔎 Neue Informationen
- Monetarisierung: Einführung nutzungsbasierter Preise für APIs/MCP‑Server ab Jahresende, mit inkludierten Monatslimits in Subscriptions und bezahlbaren Überkapazitäten.
- Governance & Regionen: ISO‑42001‑Zertifizierung für AI‑Management genannt; fünf zusätzliche regionale Datenspeicherorte für Autodesk Construction Cloud/Forma.
- Produkt‑Onramp: Forma Data Management Essentials wird Revit, AutoCAD und Civil 3D zugänglich gemacht (On‑ramp in Richtung Forma‑Cloud).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Neues Transaktionsmodell: Diskussion drehte sich um Timing/Skalierung der direkten Verkäufe, Partner‑Rollen und wann sich höhere Renewal‑/Expansion‑Effekte materialisieren (Mehrjahreslaufzeiten).
- Consumption & Revenue: Analysten fragten zu API‑Monetarisierung, Verbrauchs‑Recognition und wie Flex/Usage die Rev‑ und RPO‑Dynamik verändert (aktuell ~17% Consumption, größtenteils ratabel).
- Margen & Cloud‑Mix: Wirkung wachsender Cloud/AI‑Workloads auf Bruttomarge und Pfad zur Fiskal'29‑Margin; Management sagt: berücksichtigt, aber abhängig von Adoptionstempo.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Investorenseitig ist dies ein strategischer Investor Day: Autodesk signalisiert, die Produkt‑ und Go‑to‑Market‑Transformation sei abgeschlossen, adressiert jetzt Monetarisierung von AI/APIs und zielt auf höhere Margen bis Fiskal'29. Kernthemen sind Adoptionstempo, Cloud‑Kosten und die Umsetzung der Consumption‑Modelle.
Autodesk — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
1. Management Discussion
Given we've only got a limited amount of time, I thought I'd crack on and Kash will join us in a second. Okay. So Janesh Moorjani, CFO of Autodesk.
Great to be here. Thank you. Okay. Welcome, Kash.
We've got the launch offer as well, so we can go 2 minutes over.
2. Question Answer
Is everybody having a good time despite my couple of minutes of being behind on schedule. I speak fast, so do you, so we'll compress it off. Thanks for coming once again. So glad to see you. Congratulations. I've not hosted you after you became CFO of Autodesk. It's been many, many -- 10-plus years since we got to know each other when you were with VMware.
Long time, yes. Yes, we've known each other for more than a decade.
Yes, absolutely. Matt is going to chime in here with some questions as well.
But I wanted to set the stage after joining the company, first of all, give us an overview as to what your -- what are the key things you're working on, every CFO coming in has a mandate, right, what is kind of your mandate and also as an adjunct to that, what does success look like for you and Andrew and the team in the next 4 to 5 years ahead?
Yes, great question, Kash. So look, I joined Autodesk back in December, when I joined the company, I had -- coming in, I had two distinct pieces, right? One was just around our ability to continue to prosecute the market opportunity ahead of us. What I saw was a company that had been a consistent, steady growth over the past couple of years. That is an industry leader in the spaces in which we operate well regarded by customers, well regarded by partners, and had been at the forefront of driving many business model transitions and industry transitions over its existence. And at the same time, a company that had a massive opportunity in front of it in terms of everything related to driving the convergence of design and making the cloud and with AI and so job #1 was obviously to think about how we can position ourselves to capture that opportunity while building on that strong foundation.
And the second piece, which was equally important was making sure that as we drive back the business forward, that we drive a degree of optimization and operational efficiency from the standpoint of expanding profitability, which has been a top-of-mind issue for many of our shareholders for some time. And so it was all about expanding margins and expanding profitability and doing that even as [Audio Gap] months, I'm pleased to report that we've been able to do both, and you've seen that so far in the results for this year.
And looking ahead, I think it's more of the same. If I think about our opportunity to continue to build on the strong investments that we've already made to build to capture the future with AI and the convergence of design and make in the cloud. That's where we are focused. And 5 years from now, if we're successful, you will see that reflected in our financials, and you will see that reflected in the growth and the profitability of the business, and that's what we're focused on.
Excellent, excellent. As you went on this 10-month journey, many of us, when you go into a job, we have an expectation of what it is. And then there are certain things that catch up a surprise, positive, negative, whatever it is. So how would you characterize the things that surprised you relative to what you expected anyway going into this job at this company.
To be honest, there was no real negative surprises. There were only positive ones. And maybe that's just because in terms of how I think about things as maybe comes with CFO DNA that you tend to think about how you derisk things and as you look ahead. And so I did a fair amount of work looking at the company from the outside talk to clearly, the management team, board members, a number of other folks in the industry. And so I had a very good thesis going in. So I'd say there were really no adverse surprises and in fact, only positive nuggets that have uncovered along the way.
All right. Simon is going to say, I've heard this so many times, Kash. You stop boring yourself, painting yourself into the corner being the oldest guy in the room. But the first software application that I used, even before Microsoft Word and Excel because those didn't exist was AutoCAD LT like back in college. So I never knew that, that would be a public company that will be covering their stock and having the CFO of the company.
There was a time when the software used to ship on floppy disks. And now...
This was before floppy. This was tape drives. We had an air conditioned room and only three of us could access it. And I was not the best programmer, by the way. I kind of followed on, but that was my first exposure. Let's talk about go-to-market. Since there's been a lot of changes, I think Autodesk went through its first big change, at least in recent times in 2016, the subscription model transition. And when you came upon the scene, it was this transactional model. So how has the -- if you take a step back, how do you -- how has the GTM function evolved at the company? And how do you see that evolving as a result of the transaction model?
Yes. We've been on a journey. I talked about business model transitions that we've been driving. And we've been on a journey to evolve our go-to-market from the standpoint of how it's set up and naturally then the financial implications of that. And that's a journey we started on a few years ago. Many of our investors have patiently been with us on that journey. We are coming to the tail end of that overall business model transformation and that's gone well so far with our partners. There's been some areas of operational friction, which we've addressed along the way.
But by and large, I'd say it's gone well. And so starting in February of this year, we then initiated the optimization phase of that go-to-market transformation which meant making some changes in terms of how we are structured from a go-to-market standpoint and some of the -- focusing on certain areas where we needed to divest so that we can reinvest in other areas as we are building capabilities for the future. And even that has gone reasonably well so far. We're now about 6 months into that. So far, I'd say it's gone really well. And we're starting to see the results of that in some of these early successes that we talked about.
Can you share with us a little bit more detail on the optimization that would have heard since you joined the company. That's -- it's sort of like you got hired to do optimization in addition to a million other things, right? What does optimization mean in your lingo. And can you apply to a few business functions so we can kind of visualize and size what that means?
Yes. It's mainly in the context of go-to-market. And I'll be the first 1 to say that it's not just me, right? This was a body of work that had been already underway and the company had been working on it. So it's not that I show up and I start to optimize. But the team had already been doing a lot of work in this area, and we already had a plan when I joined in December, the plan for this year was almost set already. But to put a little bit more meat around the bones on what that means is part of this initial phase, we focused on some of the non-selling functions.
We focused on in areas like marketing, where we wanted to cut back in some places so we could reinvest in other places. We focused on our customer success functions. We focused on some of the sales operations and sales technical functions because we wanted to build new capabilities for the future. And we're reinvesting some of the savings from those actions so that we can continue to build tighter channel partner integration so that we can continue to build greater self-service capabilities to service our customers, those are all of the things that are underway right now very specifically.
Simon, I'll loop you in on the transaction model piece. I just want to...
He's got a PhD in the transaction model. I mean before Janesh showed, was talking PhD. But maybe just give us a mark-to-market on kind of where in terms of kind of the rollout of the transaction model, the expected benefits. And if you're realizing any of those today, given that we're still pretty early.
Yes. So on track, the way I describe it, whenever you're doing big implementations is you have a bunch of assumed one standard deviation things, and we've talked to things about channel partner productivity deteriorating during the transition just because they had a bunch of other work, but we haven't had any 3 standard deviation events and goodness and that's a function of good execution of the process. The other thing to understand is that this isn't a single sort of one-off one and done. It's a bunch of optimizations to Janesh's comments, both across revenue and across cost over time, some of which happened quickly so for example, the 9% risk we had earlier on this year and some of which happen over time.
So for example, we've talked about some of the lower-end customers channel shifting and coming directly through the eStore, that happens over multiple different quarters. Let's talk about it on sort of different duration. And then the sort of final bit is the sort of financial impact is that you have essentially the math impact of the pre-revenue costs shifting from pre-revenue into sales and marketing sort of that come through billings first and then it flows rapidly through the P&L over time. And so we're sort of part of sort of the billings peak and we are approaching the peak of the revenue peak and then it will start dissipating as we go into next year.
And I think one of the like end-state advantages of the transaction model is having more data-driven interactions with your end customers, right? So are you starting to see the effects of that with the rollout of the transaction model? Is that translating into incremental cross-sell opportunities?
Too early is the answer. We're still very focused on getting the transaction model right. We're still in the sort of lift and shift phase. That's the sort of the data phase, which is around lift and shift and optimization and then you get to a data phase. So that's the vast majority of that opportunity is still to come.
Okay. Great. And then, Janesh, maybe just stepping back a little bit. You've seen a lot of momentum in the Construction segment, right? So can you tell us a little about what's driving this ongoing momentum and where you see the next potential leg of growth for the AEC category?
Yes. Construction has been a bright spot for us. It's performed really well here in Q2, continuing its streak of strong performance from prior quarters as well. And a lot of that is strong addition in net new logos in construction. A lot of that is continuing to see larger expansion. Construction is -- it's a single industry, but there's many different use cases or many different types of construction. And one of the nice parts about our business is it's highly diversified. And so when you see strength in some areas that can easily offset slowing down in other areas.
So in this past quarter, for example, we saw strength in data centers. We saw strength in industrial and infrastructure build-outs and that more than offset some of the softness that you're seeing on the commercial side of construction. So that's actually helped us quite nicely. And I think that will -- that business will continue to perform well for us.
Yes. I want to drill into the ACC product specifically. Simon, I know you have thoughts here around kind of the broader competitive landscape, but just give us kind of a broader understanding of kind of where you think Autodesk fits into the kind of construction management category and sort of maybe the competitive win rates you're observing against some of the other players out there.
The opportunity is the same as it's always been, which is the single most important strategic priority for our customers is to wrangle the data, so if you speak to Bill Oakland the Oakland Construction, he's saying, "Look, I've got to get control of my data, which is partly around putting it into the cloud, but then it's building value on it. And the reason they want to build value on it is so that they can work remotely because of the pandemic, so they can manage supply chain shocks that they can apply AI to it." Pretty much everything that's turning up in their everyday life is driving more cloud and more data wrangling.
So more prosaically, if you speak to the construction customers, what they'll tell you is that 70% of the problems that turn up on a construction side because the decision was taken in the design of preconstruction. So that's why they want to connect it upstream as well. And then they also want to connect it downstream once they hand over to the customers. So we've got a data center that's got a lifespan of over long 20, 30 years or however long it is. And optimizing that, the construction customers want to have an ongoing relationship. They're having a digital twin that allows them to have an ongoing relationship on the operations and maintenance side, and to extend the relationship downstream. But the core of it is wrangling data.
I'm curious like from a field execution perspective, like how important is it that you guys own sort of the pre-conceptual design phase in terms of selling in this kind of broader construction management platform.
So the answer is the horizontal connection is already important. There's going to be turbocharged important in an AI world, and the reason for that is that we will be able to pull forward essentially simulation much earlier into the construction process. What I mean by that is that you will be able to -- when you have a block of land over time before you've even started building anything and just playing around with blocks to have the software tell you, no, no, don't do that. Otherwise, you're going to have a $10 million problem when you start building. And so being able to pull forward problems that you're going to have further downstream, much earlier before you're set on a certain path is a significant driver of value. Maybe we can talk about AI monetization at some point as you move from up the scale in terms of AI?
Yes. Let's talk about AI from a product perspective and then maybe from a monetization perspective. So I think like Autodesk has effectively sort of 2 approaches, right? I think like right now, you're infusing AI in some of these kind of core, more road functions solutions like auto constraints, but then you have a big grandiose vision around things like Project Bernini. So maybe unpack that opportunity that you see from a product road map perspective?
Yes, they are the same thing, but it's the fact that AI is a continuum, not a fixed point. So a continuum from feature automation, which is part of a workflow to workflow automation, which is the traditional silos you think about in design software, to system automation, which is essentially cross-silo end-to-end when we talk about. And so that's some of the conceptual design stuff being able to make inference on the construction phase that I was just talking about.
As you move up that stack, 2 important things happen. Firstly, the model sizes get bigger from a relatively small model for feature automation to workflow automation to system automation. The reason that's important, the model size is that for future automation with a small model, you can deliver that and have the compute happen on the desktop and that means you can deliver feature automation value in the way you with a traditional product, which is delivered as incremental value to a subscription product and the value captured in price, and we're doing that today already.
But as you move up to bigger models, you can't do it with a traditional subscription product because you're delivering a lot more value and you need to capture that value, but you're also delivering more variable costs through more compute, and you can't put that through a fixed subscription price point. So as you move up that stack, you will shift to more subscription -- sorry, consumption-type models to capture that value and cost, that's the first thing. And the second thing is as you move up that stack, the breadth and depth will move beyond the capabilities of the human brain to be able to do it. And so what that means is that you will move from human-led processes to machine led processes. So because a human brain cannot make those connections between a block of land and what's going on in construction and a machine can.
The reason that's important is that we will be able to deliver significantly more and greater dollar value or value to our customers. There's one vector of opportunity for ourselves. And also, there's a second vector of time, which is the machines don't have to sleep whereas humans do. And so you have machine working 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. So yes, except for junior -- for analysts, yes, I used to be one of those, so I know how that feels. And so there are 2 vectors of monetization opportunities. So for everyone sort of wondering around with their hair on fire, worrying about seat-based models, what you are not thinking about is that machine -- incremental machine consumption, which has 2 significant vectors of monetization.
Simon, on that, how should we see the end-user productivity? So certainly, there is a vision of what AI can do in that scenario, right? How do you get paid? And what is that incremental value because Autodesk, as it is, brings a lot of value to its customers and you've been on this digitalization journey, digital twins. There's been a lot of turns of the crank or crank of -- the turn of the crank, if you will.
So what does AI allow the customer to do that they maybe do not need an additional engineer? Or is it unlocking new scenarios that would have required some kind of time, resources element, how do you equate it to the value realized by the customer in tangible terms.
I think it's going to be both to be quite honest, right? And Simon was describing very effectively that you can have certain things that are just tasks that are automated. They make the user more productive. And you see that in a number of applications, and you'll see that in our product, too. And those are just monetizing the ongoing value of the subscription. But then AI unlocks so many new things that previously were not possible and connecting it back to the thread that Simon was talking about around the value of collaboration across the ecosystem and around the value of being able to envision problems before they happen much earlier in the life cycle, those are things that unlock tremendous value for customers.
And so they will save money with that, and therefore, there's value that we deliver, and we can monetize that value in the form of these consumption-oriented models. That's the second piece of it. And then finally, as we are doing that, each user becomes much more productive. If you think about traditional seat-based models and P-times-Q models. Over a long period of time, what will end up happening is that because there's more machine usage and less human usage, how we think about the transfer of that value to the customer will change and therefore, our monetization approach to that will also change. Because when machines are doing the work, and humans are that much more productive, we are delivering significant value to customers, and they're willing to pay for that value.
So you'll see those evolve as well in the form of the consumption model that Simon was talking about.
Just to give you 2 specific examples. For a complex manufacturing object to put constraints on it and how the dimensions sort of fit together for complicated option -- object can take 4 or 5 days. And with our constraint automation, we can do that in seconds or minute. And so just a dramatic saving in terms of time for the customer. So that's 1 way.
Another way, which is 1 of my favorite examples of a customer who was building a hotel in Miami and put a sun deck on the side of the hotel because in Miami, you want to get a tan. But when they ran an AI automation around it to show how the sunlight affected the building, they figured out that the deck that they -- the Sun deck that they put on was casting a shadow on the pool for 70% of the day. That's a bad day at the pool, okay? And that would have cost them millions to rip it out and put a new one, okay. So just 2 specific examples of how this can help our customers improve their productivity.
Interesting. So have you thought about -- maybe it's still early, how you price the consumption credits and do you start off with a limited number of credits that are part of a free pack and then there is an upside trigger that -- have you given thought to how you could get economic realization from it?
We have. And some of it, as we said, will be baked into existing products and reflected in the price of those existing products and some of it will be additional capabilities, particularly if it's more resource intensive and causes the compute meters to spin faster at our end. We want to make sure that we are monetizing that the right way. And so as you think about these more complicated workflow automation and systems automation kinds of use cases, those will be things that we will monetize through either tokens or otherwise. And we will talk a little bit more about this at our user conference coming up at Autodesk University at AU. So we'll share a little bit more at that point. But for sure, it's going to be both of those kinds of models.
Sigma is not exactly in your space, but design. They have taken the approach of investing aggressively to push Make -- Sigma Make, which requires a lot of GPU cycles. And we all had to take a big step down. Not anything surprising because it's all contemplated and premeditated, obviously. But the pace of margin compressions they had to endure to generate new revenue streams from Make was quite significant. How do you guys think about since you have your own model, is it a little bit more efficient from a GPU consumption standpoint? Or what are the puts and takes of going for this, are there sacrifices that need to be made before you can start to see the benefits?
Yes. We've been investing in this area for a long time already. And so this is not new for us. And there will be efficiencies that we can gain in terms of how we think about just resource intensity of our own compute engines and so forth. So we will continue to stay the course on investment in this area. We think it's a super important area for us as we think about how we drive growth. But the nice part about our business is we've shown as we have operating leverage, and so we can reinvest some of the portions in the business to go drive growth for the future, but at the same time, continue to deliver operating margin as well.
And just because we've been at it for quite a while and 10 years and far longer than most of our peers, we've been solving some of these problems as we go along or at least slowing the rate. So for example, what we've done is we're using AWS as our hyperscaler. But we've essentially built an AI stack, our own AI stack on top of that, and we are 70% more efficient because of that compared to AWS' own stack. So we knew this was a problem because we've been doing for some time and solving that problem as we go along. Similarly around...
Particularly on the AI side..
You're correct. Correct. For Autodesk specific use case...
Yes, correct. And then similarly, around data, a lot of data -- one of the challenges that other AI engines have is that they're built on 2D data because there's very little publicly available 3D data. We have access to a bunch of 3D data, obviously, and that's 1 of our sort of secret sauces. But a lot of that data, not just for us, it's just because of the way that our customers build models is fragmented and just figuring out how you take fragmented data and put it together in a way that means that we can extract value from more of our data than our peers, again, hard engineering to do, so if you look at -- and there's a bunch of other cases. So it's not just the sort of AI capabilities itself. There's a bunch of scaling questions we've asked us and answered. There's a bunch of data questions that we answered. There is bunch of other stuff, which means we think we are years ahead of our competitors in AI.
Not that I intended to ask this, but as I've listened to you talk about that this concept of a world model, where the inputs are actually video and images as opposed to a text-based model, which is the world that we live in. How are you training Bernini? An open-ended question.
So I mean based on data that we have access to.
Is it text data or is it like video data or...
It's multimodal data. So our customers don't work in...
So it's a pretty sophisticated engine. It's not like...
Correct, and that's again -- so to use a simple analogy. The vast majority of AI engines, if you ask them to produce a water jug will produce you a beautiful looking water jug. But if you rotate and look through the top, they won't have a hole in the middle to hold water because they have no concept of depth. And there's a bunch of other things around how you -- the geometry is also not [ manipulable ] as well, which our customers care about and a bunch of other stuff. But in simple terms, and having that concept of depth is a key differentiator.
So watched a demo of a world model. I will not name the company that made this world model, but you can guess. They had a slicing of a bowl of cereal which had milk in it, the cereal, the hard part was cut by the knife, but the milk did not spill. I said that's a big shortcoming, right? That it more or less kind of applies in your world when you do simulation slicing through -- move and detect, and not have the shadow go up on the pool.
There's a bunch of problems you have to solve. It isn't one problem. And we've been solving those steadily over 10 years. And I'm sure going down various cul-de-sacs and holes and we've been able to do that with relatively modest amounts of investment because we've been doing it over time. So those folks who are following behind us are going to have to spend a lot of money and do it quickly. They're going to have to blow, the return on that investment will be less than ours because we invested early.
How much of the other models do you have to use like an open AI or an Anthropic or versus your own proprietary Bernini model?
Well, we leverage them to a degree. But a lot of this is actually -- Bernini is proprietary research, and it's built on -- that's been trained on the data that exists within Autodesk. And as Simon was saying, a lot of that is actually multimodal data, including drawings and so forth. So there's a lot of goodness that's being built within Autodesk and Bernini. And again, you'll see some of that at AU next week.
And how close are we to Bernini being like available in its full form and functionality and capability?
I mean, you'll see more at Autodesk University next week, is the short answer.
Good, good. Janesh, I want to jump in here with the new long-term operating margin target that you guys announced for fiscal '29, 45%, excluding the transaction model. Just walk us through sort of the puts and takes in terms of how you get to there from the current kind of margin profile we have today.
Yes, I'm happy to. So if I think of it on an as-reported basis, this year, we've guided to approximately 37%. The long-term margin is 41%. By the time we actually get to that stage, we'll be through all these business model transitions. So if I think about the new transaction model headwind, that will increase a little bit next year, and that's why you have that 400 basis point delta between the 41% and the 45%, but if I think about the 41% as reported op margin, as we were building that target for the future. We've done well so far this year, clearly demonstrated that we performed consistently, not just this year, but for the past couple of years from a top line revenue growth perspective as well.
And so what we wanted to do is make sure that we set the margin up to be achievable under a range of growth scenarios. And so that was guiding principle #1, as we set the margin. The second is in terms of the sources of operating leverage. It comes from the go-to-market optimization that I talked about, which as we are executing on that, I think that will continue to help us drive more to the bottom line. And then, of course, just the operating leverage that's inherent in the model, which we've been demonstrating over a period of time. And I think just putting those blocks together, as I said, over a range of growth scenarios, we should be able to achieve this margin target.
Great. And then any questions from clients, yes.
A question about [indiscernible] probably lot of leverage on AI tools that you are working hard on [indiscernible]?
A lot of the smaller customers will naturally benefit from this. So again, it will go back to the scale and complexity of the AI capabilities that they wanted to use. And if they are a relatively rudimentary things, if they are simple task automation exercises, those will be built into the products and then we will naturally price appropriately for those. So they will get the benefit of those and we will capture the relevant amount of value.
But as we were saying earlier, a lot of the benefit on this, if I think about AEC as an example, a lot of the benefit that even though small and medium customers will derive will be on collaborating across the ecosystem. And that they'll see when they go in to Forma, which is the industry cloud for AEC.
And when they're on Forma, they will get access, not just to the capabilities in Forma, but thinking more broadly across the ecosystem and the benefits of leveraging the data models, the unified data stack, the collaboration capabilities, all of those things. And then depending on the kinds of workloads that they run, it will either be included in the subscription or they will have to pay on top of its more usage-based or more resource-intensive workload.
Yes, the final question, we think we have time. Yes, go ahead.
You spoke a lot about the advantages of your 3D data, something which your competitors seemingly aren't lucky enough, like you guys to have. Could you talk a little bit more about the challenges of using that data within your AI stack? And sort of more importantly, are any of your competitors even bothering to try to catch up given the low ROIs that you were talking about that they might be -- they might earn from that.
Yes, I'd start by saying it's a lot more than luck. So we've been thoughtful about it for some time. And we are well ahead of our competitors in that regard. And we do use the data internally, we disclose that to our customers and make sure that we're always on the right side of being fully transparent with them as we leverage the data to build our own internal capabilities. So are competitors trying to catch up? I'm sure they are, but we feel very good about how we're positioned.
And remember, there are very few customers, if any, who have sufficient data to build their own models, but they also don't want to just dump their data with anybody because they're worried about their IP. So it's sort of managing that, which is there's a bunch of data, which is doing constraint automation or figuring out where all the toilets are on a hotel building. Nobody cares about that and adding value to that and automating that they don't care about.
But they want to make sure that their secret sauce is protected. So for example, one of the things we're doing with our AI is when we ingest the customers' data, we are tagging it. So that if there is a design for an object that is unique to them, we are able to identify that and exclude it from the training data. And so that's on the sort of the back end of the process. And then on the front end, when we're delivering results to the customers, we also check to see whether the output is, again, aligns with our unique feature from a customer. And if it does, we'll exclude it from it. So it's around automating what customers don't care about like sort of spell check function, stuff -- low-value stuff, but that's a big chunk of the data. And then it's making sure customers have security around the high-value stuff, which they really care about.
On that note, we think we're a little bit ahead of -- actually behind time. But thank you so much. We wish you well on this transformation journey and also looking forward to seeing what's ahead with Bernini. And the world model in your own world and what it looks like ,thanks for coming again. Thanks for coming, once again. Thanks for your attention as well. Let's have a great conference.
Thank you.
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Autodesk — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
Autodesk — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: CFO Janesh Moorjani betont ein Doppelmandat: Marktchancen durch Cloud- und KI‑getriebene Konvergenz von Design und Produktion nutzen und gleichzeitig operative Effizienz zur Margenausweitung durchsetzen. Kurzfristig zieht Construction (AEC) stark; langfristig sollen Bernini (proprietäres multimodales KI‑Modell) und verbrauchsbasierte Preismodelle Wachstum treiben.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- GTM‑Optimierung: Seit Februar läuft eine Optimierungsphase im Go‑to‑Market mit Einsparungen in Marketing, Customer Success und Sales Operations, Einsparungen werden in Channel‑Integration und Self‑Service reinvestiert.
- KI‑Roadmap: KI als Kontinuum von Feature‑Automatisierung bis System‑Automation; schwere Modelle führen zu Verbrauchs‑/Token‑Modellen neben klassischen Subscriptions.
- Wettbewerbsvorteil: Proprietäre 3D‑Daten und eigener AI‑Stack (angegeben ~70% effizienter als Hyperscaler‑Stack) sollen technische Hürden für Wettbewerber erhöhen.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Klarheit zum Langfrist‑Ziel: operatives Ergebnisziel für FY'29 bei 45% Operating Margin exklusive Transaktionsmodell (als‑reported Ziel ~41%, aktuelle Guidance ~37%). Weitere Details zur KI‑Monetarisierung (Token/Consumption) und erste Bernini‑Einblicke werden auf der Autodesk University präsentiert; Optimierungsphase läuft seit ~6 Monaten.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Transaktionsmodell: Fragen zur Tempo‑ und Reichweite der erwarteten Vorteile; Management sagt: noch in Lift‑&‑Shift/Optimierungsphase, einige Effekte noch quartalsweise verteilt.
- KI‑Monetarisierung: Preisgestaltung (Credits/Tokens) und Timing bleiben vage; konkrete Modelle sollen schrittweise veröffentlicht werden, mehr auf AU.
- Daten & IP: Wettbewerbsfragen und Datenschutz: Management betont Vorsicht/Transparenz und technische Maßnahmen (Tagging, Exklusion sensibler Teile aus Trainingsdaten), behauptet Vorsprung gegenüber Konkurrenten.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Autodesk verfolgt eine ausgewogene Strategie aus Ergebnisoptimierung und technologischer Offensive. Kurzfristig kann der Übergang zum Transaktions‑/Consumption‑Modell Margendruck und Volatilität erzeugen; mittelfristig bietet proprietäre 3D‑Datenbasis plus Bernini‑KI erhebliche Upside‑Chancen, vorausgesetzt Monetarisierung und Skaleneffekte treten wie geplant ein.
Autodesk — Citi’s 2025 Global Technology
1. Question Answer
We've crew from Autodesk here. I get a stand for this session, which is great because I'll be sitting in those chairs for about 6 hours today. So from left to right, we got Sid Haksar, VP of Construction; Mike Haley, SVP of Autodesk Research. And we all know Simon from Investor Relations.
I'm going to turn it over to Simon for the most exciting part of the presentation, which is the safe harbor.
It really is. We may make forward-looking statements during the course of this presentation. Please refer to our SEC filings for information on risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements. Okay, off you go.
Okay. So maybe we'll start with the forward-looking statements. Anything to share? No. Okay. Well, let's do intros. So Mike and Sid, thank you for joining the conference. I think, Sid, you were here maybe 2, 3 years ago. But just for investors in the room, if you could remind us of your background and kind of the areas that you're focused on at Autodesk.
Sure. Good morning, and glad to be here. So I'm Sid Haksar based in Boston, I lead Strategy and Partnerships for our Construction business. I've been with the company about 11 years now. I joined Autodesk in the mergers and acquisitions group. And then the last 4 years have really gone into the business. So really been at the start of our journey in Construction to where it is today.
Great. And Mike, how about yourself? Give us a quick overview.
Sure. I'm Mike Haley. So I'm, as Tyler said, the Senior Vice President of Research. So I run the Autodesk Research organization, so around about a 300-person international research group with one group in Autodesk that's our mission is to stay sort of 5 to 10 years ahead of the company and the industries we serve and just figure out and kind of prepare the company for what's coming next. As part of that, several years ago, we started our AI Lab. And as a result of that, and we'll talk a bit more about this later, I'm sure, I also direct the company's overall AI work and efforts across the company.
I've been a little longer than Sid, 25 years at this year at Autodesk. So had a long career, really focusing on emerging technologies. It's sort of been the theme kind of what I've directed and led across Autodesk and prior companies before Autodesk.
Awesome. Well, great to have you here, and I'm sure a lot of exciting things to talk about. Maybe we could kick off on the AI front because that's the topic of 2025 and certainly been a focus at the conference. So just at a very high level, Mike, how would you articulate Autodesk's AI strategy from here?
So across the entire Design and Make space, it doesn't matter what industry you're in, whether you're in Construction, Manufacturing or Media and Entertainment, there is an enormous amount of laborious sort of tedious work that goes into most things, designing buildings, games, whatever it might be. So there is a massive opportunity to provide automation to those customers to start realizing efficiencies that they've just never been able to realize with traditional software. That's the first thing.
Second thing is workflows and the way the data flows with inside these large complex construction projects, for example, are a great example. Sid works a lot with that. There's an opportunity to start accelerating those, making them more approachable, make them more customizable. So that's another one.
The third one I would say, which is -- it's one of the ones that I find out, to be honest, the most exciting is design software -- Design and Make software is complex. It's complicated software. Most people that use it find it difficult to learn. It takes a while. And the result is there's probably a lot of people in the world that don't actually get to use the software because it's just so complex.
With AI, the barrier to being able to use complex software is being removed. If you can go in and you can sketch a picture or write a prompt or do these kinds of things, suddenly, you're able to use sophisticated software. So it's almost changing the experience paradigm. So those 3 concepts are really at the core of sort of our strategy across the company.
And just to press on that last point, that means there's a lot more potential customers.
Yes, yes. Got it. Okay. And maybe talk about where Autodesk is in terms of product perspective in terms of giving that automation. What have you seen in terms of early traction from -- I know it's early, but...
Yes, yes. Well, let me give a little history before that and then I'll get to the traction bit. So one of the things we -- so I mentioned the AI Lab. So in 2018, we established our AI Lab. And the reason we established an AI Lab is not to go and trying to do what Open AI is doing or what Google is doing. We recognize that the nature of AI in our space is fundamentally different. The data is different. It's 3D geometry of the world. It's physics. It's how buildings are created or products are manufactured in a factory. You cannot take a language model and just supply it to that and hope to get useful results.
And what we discovered back in 2018 is that there was not enough places doing that elemental work. There were not universities. There were not labs. There were not companies doing that work. So we had to set up our own capability. So that's -- a lot of what we've been focused now on for the last 7, 8 years is really building a level of competency around AI in the sort of unique space, right, of sort of data and these kind of workflows, right?
So what you're beginning to see from us, and you saw this -- if you watched last year at Autodesk University, we announced a feature in Fusion called AutoConstrain. I'll go into the details of that later, but it's a thing that just helps you in your design process. But it's an entirely AI-driven using these modern sort of AI technologies. And what's fascinating is we launched that feature -- we announced it and then we launched it in February. So we're at 8, 9 months into sort of launching that. And we've just seen complete takeoff of people just loving this feature.
Not only that, we've actually -- it's the first of the really significant AI features. So we're improving this thing constantly. We're getting the feedback now of how customers are using it, what they like, what they don't like about it, when is the AI getting it right, when is the AI getting it wrong, right? And you're bringing that information back in and you're self-improving. And we've just seen radical improvements in the quality of the tool itself, right?
So this is the one of the main differences with AI tools. It's not like traditional software where you build a feature, you put that feature out there. And it's the same feature until you roll out the next piece of software. With AI, that thing is constantly getting better. So we've -- I mean, just in the last 8 months, I think we've rolled 3 different versions of that AI already, and it's -- the improvement is radical. So that is then further accelerating customer acceptance of the feature. So we're seeing something like 80% acceptance of AI predictions within that tool.
So when it comes and says, "I think you probably want this." 80% of the time, they're going, yes, that looks pretty good. I'm good, which for a tool that's only been out for 7 months and it's our first AI is pretty incredible.
Right. So I guess, it sounds like you're seeing a lot of uptake initial of...
We're seeing a lot of interest, a lot of uptake. And one of the things I always look for with AI is -- I mean, AI is a little bit of a game, right? I mean because these are probabilistic systems. They will make errors at times. We all know that when we use ChatGPT and these kind of things, right? So what you've got to understand is what is the customer acceptance of those errors because there's a balance between how much efficiency is this giving it, giving me in my work and how many errors am I getting and what's the sort of trade-off.
So you always got to figure out like what quality do I need to get the AI at in order to hit that sort of minimum threshold of sort of usefulness and what is the expectations of the customer. And you can't go and ask a customer that question. The only way to find this out is to actually build the thing and sort of iterate and experiment. So that is why I'm very excited about it. And what we're seeing now is actually a pretty high acceptance rate because they're getting such a big advantage.
Right. And when customers use the customers' uptake and you see the usage of AI, what is that -- what have you seen in those customers? Are they spending more time in Autodesk? Are they using more consumption? Is there any kind of downstream impact that you're seeing?
Yes. So we're definitely seeing more consumption. So the result is -- so I mean, all of this stuff is all AIs that we are providing now as services. So I mean, this is clearly -- I mean we'll probably end up talking about this later, but I mean, this is directly taking us on to our path of a consumption business. I mean we have consumptive parts of our business today. But relatively speaking, they're not as large as they're going to be in the future.
And again, like I said, so what we are seeing -- so I mean, for example, in the average constraint sort of thing, you might find somebody spends maybe a week setting up a bunch of complicated constraints for a complicated design. So with this tool, that's now an hour, right? So when you see that sort of type of acceleration, I mean, the fact is what people start doing is they will actually do more because now they can make more products. They can make more versions of a product. They can try more things out. So we end up almost -- as a company, we end up winning on both sides, right? They're actually using our tools more to do more things, but they're also using a consumption kind of model from us.
Let me just jump in that. So I find you sort of think about AI as a continuum, not a fixed point. So you start at the sort of smaller model end where you're essentially doing feature automation. That's what AutoConstrain is. And one way of verbalizing that is that it's -- essentially it's a small model, which means it's a relatively low compute, which can happen on the desktop. And what that means is that you can deliver that functionality through the product and monetize it like a traditional subscription product, add value, capture it through price. And that's what we're doing with AutoConstrain basically.
As you move on to workflow automation, so a particular workflow, you're going on to a bigger model and that compute will likely migrate to the cloud. And you can't put high-compute cloud -- variable cost, cloud compute through a subscription price point. Otherwise, you blow a hole in your margin. So that model will start migrating towards a consumption. As you know, we already have a significant consumption business with EBA and Flex. Those 2 workflows will likely remain human-led for the foreseeable future.
But then when you go onto the next automation, which is system automation, where you're essentially doing cross-workflow automation, you get to a point where the complexity and size is beyond the scope of a human brain, and you will start bringing in significant amounts of machine consumption of the data as well. So -- and that will also be a consumption model. So you have that sort of continuum based on the size of compute and also on who is leading the consumption, a human or a machine, and also then the frequency. So because humans have to sleep, machines don't. So machines will work 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. So those are sort of some of the axes that you can think of with AI.
Right. And how should we think about Autodesk's road map and what customers need to do to kind of progress along that continuum?
Yes. So I mean, this is -- change doesn't happen quickly in most of our industries. So there has to be a bridge, right? We can't throw the switch and absolutely every piece of software suddenly becomes a magical AI thing because, well, first off, the technology is not ready yet for that, but nor are our customers. So the nice thing of starting with the sort of all kind of first stage, the small AI, like what Simon is talking about, the sort of automations that I've been talking about, too, those are not fundamentally changing the work. Like even this AutoConstrain thing, I meant, you're still constraining a drawing, you're still making a drawing. The overall process is still the same. You've just kind of shrunk the whole thing and you've taken out a lot of tedious work.
So our strategy has been to really start to introduce those kind of tools all across our portfolio. That begins to get our customers used to using AI. It starts to build trust in AI as well because let's face it, AI is a new thing. There's a lot of things going on in the world where people are, "If I'm going to trust this thing, what does it mean to use AI?"
So now they're starting to use it, starting to use it in these narrow contexts that don't overall -- now what you will see us do, again, like Simon said, as we move more to the system side and start thinking of workflow and then systems, you will see us gradually begin to expand the aperture, right? And the nature of those tools will become more transformative on people's workflows. But that's still to come. We've got to create a bridge from where we are today of traditional software.
Mike, perhaps as we were talking about last night at dinner, give us sort of things that you might be able to come in the future of how you input stuff and how it works.
Yes, yes, yes. So I mean again, like I said, I mean, the idea of how people use software is really significant. And I mean, I think what you're going to see in the future is abilities for people to -- well, first off, leveraging your historical data, I mean, this has been a classic problem in manufacturing and construction and actually in media and entertainment as well for that matter. However, everybody starts a new project and all the historical information is archived away somewhere and it's just not used.
With AI, you actually have the ability to constantly mine all of that data. So you now start a new project. It's mined all your previous budgeting as well, that looks a heck of a lot like the building you built 7 years ago. Do you want to bring in a bunch of the material information, cost estimates, subs you use, bring it all in, right? So I mean, that's one example of the sort of transformative effect of how they're sort of being used. But also, like I said, on the user interface side, the way people actually physically interact with the software, the way teams are brought together is going to fundamentally change. So the ability to just sit down and use natural language with your software, have a user interface that is dynamically produced, that is giving you exactly the features you need for the job you're doing today. You don't have to go and spend a month learning Maya, which is an incredibly complicated software package to do a very simple little animation, which you could knock together in a few hours.
So again, it's fundamentally changing the accessibility of the software, which, to Simon's point, actually, I think, is very exciting because that actually expands our market as well. So there's again -- so that's why I say there has to be a bridge because you can't go straight to this future vision of like it's with bang, all the software looks great. It's going to be these new kind of interaction paradigms. You've got to find a path of value for our customers to get there.
Mike, if I may just add with Construction, we kind of break it down into a very simple. Our business is very, very simple. And you've got to talk to the end user in very simple ways. So we think of it really 3 ways: augment, automate and analyze, right? So when you talk about automate, this is the agents that we're building to do very mundane manual tasks. When you think about augment, this is where we can use generative AI capabilities, whether it is drafting up an e-mail or having a spec assistant read something and give you all the information that you need. And then you can review that versus you having to look at a specification manual and extract the information.
And then the final piece, which is analyze, which is really around predictive analytics, to what Mike said, we generate so much information. So how can we start to drive correlation with certain events that are happening. So I think AI just unlocks this opportunity for us to really ultimately drive productivity out in the field, but then also mitigate a ton of risk in our business.
Yes. And I'd love to sort of bring in the competition angle, too, as it relates to AI. I mean, certainly, a lot of software companies are under pressure just around some of the existential and disruptive concerns around AI. I think vertical software, design software, particularly where the Autodesk of the world feels a lot more insulated from that. But I mean, you talked about kind of this idea of simplifying the user experience and gaining more users. What makes you confident that, that simplification isn't going to invite more competition over time and that you can hold on to what is a really dominant competitive position?
Yes, yes. I'm sure there's going to be more competition over time. But I actually think the competition is probably going to come from different places. I think our traditional competitors, what we're seeing in the work that we're doing, so the lab that I mentioned that we established. I mean we are the world's -- I can tell you right now, we are the world's leading publisher of scientific information in the space of AI for design. I mean we have published hundreds of papers in this area, which just shows out our leadership. If you go to the average conference, we're just all over the place. That has given us a technology advantage, which none of our competitors, frankly, right now seem to have.
Our position in the market as well gives us the ability to not just develop that technology, but now to bring it to our customers to start that loop that we talked about before, sort of self-improvement, understanding how customers use it. And then, of course, you've got to have data to do this. Our customers entrust us with their data. So these systems are built using their data for them, right? So I mean, there's so many bits that are difficult to replicate. If you want to make AI at scale in the industries we are at, if you don't have data, if you don't have customers and you don't have the skills of how to build that unique type of AI, it's very difficult to enter the space.
So right now, we've got a lot of start-ups. There's a lot of start-ups doing kind of interesting things. They have some skills, they don't have data and they don't have customers. Very, very, very difficult for them to get to any sort of meaningful kind of scale kind of quickly, right? Two, you have our traditional competitors out there. Most of them have been pretty slow off the market sort of building the kind of skills. We're beginning to see them do it now. They're now beginning to build up AI Labs and things. But we've been at this now for 8 years. So we've got quite an advantage over a lot of them.
And then finally, you get the big players who get the hyperscalers out there. And for them, I think you were sort of alluding to this, Tyler, I mean, this is the nature of the vertical business. It's -- there's some sort of safety in being a vertical business. But I will tell you also, over the years, I've done a lot of work with the hyperscalers. Their understanding of our industries is negligible because their entire play is to be a platform. They always want to make everything incredibly horizontal. But by definition, we're a vertical. Our customers are looking for specific solutions to specific problems. So it's very hard for them to actually understand all the nuances.
And by the way, I will just tell you, the nature of data in the design space is so much more complex than almost any other industry out there. The nature of the data that makes up this building we're sitting in right now is incredible. So just the ability to actually grok that and understand it and be able to build products around that is a really unique capability that typically only sits within companies like ours.
Mike, how long do you think it would take a competitor to get to where we are today?
I think if you had a well-funded competitor that had all the bits and pieces, the data and everything, it would still take them probably 4, 5 years to get to where we are right now.
And then talk about the rate of change as well that we're achieving now.
Yes. So what's kind of interesting, with AI, there's an entirely new platform and approach to this, right? So it's not that we just all of a sudden built AI and it's all the same people doing the same thing that they were doing before. It's just AI stuff. With AI, the entire product life cycle, the entire platform technology, everything that's behind the scenes that's going into building this is different. So not only are we building AIs right now, we're building different infrastructure. We're building different operating models and processes, and that's what we're refining. And that's -- this is sort of like the tip of the iceberg kind of thing, right?
What most people are seeing is that tip. What they're not seeing is the large iceberg under the water because what that is, this is the accelerated computing initiatives that we've put in place. We've got a compute infrastructure, for example. So we run on Amazon, whereas in Amazon, we largely put all of our stuff in the Amazon Web Services Cloud. Amazon offers their own AI layers, their own machine learning stuff. We've built our own on top of them. We don't use Amazon stuff because our stuff is 70% more efficient than theirs. But we figured that out. We figured that out over the last 4 years because we want to do this stuff at massive scale, right?
We figured out our own development practices. We have model operations groups that, like I said, with my example around AutoConstrain, are constantly working to improve the models, figure out how our customers responding to that thing, how do we make the model better. So these -- it's kind of the non-sexy stuff, if you want, sort of behind the scenes, but this is the stuff that really counts. This is what makes you good at doing these things. And this is the -- to my answer to you, Simon, this is what really creates the difference. It's not just that we know some magical formula to how to do this. We've done the work. We've hit all the bumps along the road. We figured out what it needed to be smoothed over.
Okay. And I think maybe last question on this topic because, obviously, we can talk about this all session. But the importance of the data, right, and the data model you highlighted. But for Autodesk, help us understand where we are just from that data model and cloud transition perspective, right? Because I know this is something that was announced at AU around the Fusion and Forma and whatnot. But it feels like we're still on that journey. So is that still kind of a precursor or a roadblock to AI adoption?
It's far more of a precursor. So I mean, the -- I will tell you, the AI stuff, the sort of the order of operations is sort of cloud happened, then we realized we had to do the data thing, then you have the AI thing sort of in that order, right? You can't do the data thing if the data is not in the cloud. But if once it's in the cloud, you've got to get their data organized if you want the AI to really be sort of effective. And by the way, you're not just doing the data thing for AI. Getting data organized, being sufficiently granular across our industries is incredibly important.
So let me explain to you what I mean. So across every -- again, every one of our industries, you always have multiple parties involved in every single project and data is going to flow between those folks. They all need to work on different aspects. If you're an engineer working on the HVAC system in this building, you don't need to be accessing the entire building. You need to be working on the HVAC system. But that's not how it's historically worked. There's a big file. There's a big bunch of data that represents the building. And now I don't know what Sid's going to be doing with this or Simon is going to be doing with this. And it's really hard for me as a project administrator to be controlling that. So even something like that.
What I wanted to be doing is if Sid is my HVAC guy, I want to say, "Hey, Sid, I'm just going to take up the HVAC system, send it over to you. You do your thing." And I know that he's got the access he needs, but it's sort of isolated. Now to do that, you can't do that in a traditional file-based kind of workflow. That just doesn't work. You have to basically take this massively complicated building and disaggregate it down into these sort of smaller granular pieces and then give them -- feed them back out. So that's fundamentally what we've been doing. We've been looking at ways that we can take these representations of these complex things in the world and break them down into these elemental components.
That then allows me to move those elemental components around very efficiently. I can share them with people. I can translate them into other systems. I can create automated workflows. It says every time Sid moves the duct work, it's going to let the architect know that he now needs to maybe shift a wall or change a socket or something like that, right? So having that granular sort of data set is incredibly important. It's also incredibly difficult because, like I said, I was saying earlier that the data in our industry is an unbelievably sophisticated data.
So this is a journey. We've been on this journey now for, gosh, at least 5 years sort of building out this stuff. We will be on the journey for several more years. The results are showing. You're seeing it now. If you go to AU, like you said, we've been talking about it a lot at AU. We're showing you customer examples of the customers are beginning to leverage these data models. So as it becomes more and more expensive, you're seeing more and more transformation. But to your point, Tyler, at the same time, what that's doing is that's creating all of the data flows and everything we need for the AI side as well. So it's really been a great enabler for us, but it's enabling a broader...
And you'll see more AU and...
Yes. And I'll just say, AU this year is going to be a big one. We will be speaking about a lot of the AI things that I'm sort of been talking about, us working on. So if you're there, don't miss that.
A couple of weeks away, right?
A couple of weeks away. Yes, we're prepping for it.
Awesome. Sid, and maybe this conversation is also for Mike, but just on -- we get a lot of questions on Autodesk's M&A strategy. Obviously, there were press reports about one of your Boston companies. I know you're based in Boston. But how do you think about Autodesk's M&A strategy? I know you've been in the...
I mean basically to repeat what Andrew said on the call, which is it's the same as it's always been, which is we're investing in the future to accelerate growth in the business in adjacent verticals primarily in terms of relatively large amounts of capital, thinking construction, thinking in device, et cetera, or small amounts of capital you're typically doing tech tuck-ins or features like pay apps in construction, et cetera. But that's also in the context of a broader capital allocation strategy of investing significantly in R&D and things like AI, for example, and also repurchasing shares and bringing the share count down gradually over time. And in terms of size, as Andrew said, it will range from anything from a couple of hundred thousand dollars into the billions of dollars, but it will not be in the tens of billions of dollar.
Right, right. Okay. And Sid, let's talk about the Construction side of the business. Just high level, what are the biggest challenges that you're hearing from the Construction clients today? And how is Autodesk helping them?
Yes. So I think I spent a lot of time talking to customers. It's part of -- probably the finest part of my job. The 3 things I think they unanimously keep hearing. One is, obviously, you've probably heard this as well, labor shortages. There's a big inflection point over the next 3 years where you're going to have almost 40% of the labor force retire. And we're not being able to hire people fast enough, though I do have a thesis that with all the -- we're chatting with Mike and Simon about it with all the AI starting to take away some of the jobs, I do believe there'll be a renaissance of the craft force. So I do believe people will start to go back into trade schools and actually build stuff.
Coders to construction.
I think it's going to be because you can't -- at the end of the day, when you install an HVAC, you still need people to do that. So I think that's a big piece. I think supply chain has been a huge problem for companies. They're having to really reassess their supply chain and their agreements, and they're getting squeezed on margins. And then the third piece I probably would say is interest rates, especially when dealing with owners, I think some segments are more sensitive to others. Obviously, multifamily residential has taken a big hit because, obviously, developers are reassessing their P&Ls, their pro formas in light of various capital costs.
Right. Last call, obviously, a pretty strong beat and raise across the board. There were specific call-outs to, I'd say, the areas of strength in the Design and Construction space, whether that's infrastructure projects, data centers, right? So I'd just be curious, clearly, there's -- it's a mixed bag out there. You talked about multifamily homes. Commercial real estate broadly is under a lot of pressure. But are you kind of seeing those positive factors, maybe greater outweigh those headwinds or perhaps more than you expected? Or is it kind of a wash at the end of the day?
I think backlogs for our customers are still pretty strong. I'll say there are certain pockets, there are puts and takes, but I think the areas that we are seeing outside of data centers, hospitals, education schools are seeing a lot of growth, advanced manufacturing. So whether that's -- and obviously, a lot of the reshoring that's happening. That's benefiting our customers. And then weakness or areas -- and then obviously, we are seeing on the public side, transportation is roads, highways, bridges are seeing some good traction there. So overall, I think the outlook generally looks -- when you start to put that all in a blender and see how it all comes out, it's still very positive for our customers.
Right. Got it. And you'd expect sort of those backlog numbers. I mean they've held up for years. I mean you're not seeing any signs of those kind of compressing or deteriorating?
No. I mean, so we hear -- and I know one of our competitors talks about a macro impact. Our customers, we're not seeing that, to be honest. So when we talk to them, we still see optimism. Obviously, there are headwinds, they're navigating. A lot of it is things fundamentally out of their control, as I said, with supply chain and they're navigating that with their customers, with their stakeholders, with the owners in terms of how they structure their fee arrangements. But outside, there's a lot of work to be done. Labor is in short supply.
Right. And speaking of competition, how would you assess the Autodesk product portfolio on the Construction side relative to your competitors? Clearly, it's been a lot of work you've put into the product suite with the various acquisitions over the years. But do you feel like it's at parity or better at this point? Just kind of highlight that differentiation.
Yes. I will say we have done a lot of acquisitions. There has been a method to the madness. On the outside, it may just look like there's a lot of companies we've been picking up. But we've been doing it in a very, I'd say, sequential and deliberate way. It's been a 6-year journey for us. And where we stand today, we feel extremely confident. It's really fun and rewarding to see customers of incumbents coming to us wanting to change because construction change management is a big deal. So it needs to be a lot better and it needs to be a lot cheaper for someone to make the switch.
And we are in that state now where we are definitely -- a lot of our customers, we talk about this. You start in Autodesk, you start in our authoring tools, our modeling tools. But then there are breaks along the life cycle of that project. A lot of it was because we were not ready yet with a comprehensive end-to-end solution. We are today. So it's a lot of fun in being in my seat now because we have had to do a lot of blocking and tackling over the past few years until we got our platform ready. So Construction Cloud now is resonating really strongly. And I'm sure you'll be seeing a lot of wins that we have of customers that are coming to us from some of these incumbents with whom they've been for several years.
Yes. And just as we think about the growth trajectory of Construction Cloud, we don't get perfect disclosure on it every quarter. It's largely within the Make business, but maybe it sort of gets dragged into AEC as well. But how would you just sort of frame that growth trajectory? Are there accelerants that you see ahead, whether it's some of this macro positivity on the infrastructure side, competition, pricing, AI monetization? Just help us understand the puts and takes on that growth rate.
Yes, I'll take it. I mean it's obviously -- so in terms of size, just because it's complicated -- because it's overcomplicating it, part of construction is in the Design business, but most of it is in Make. But if you took the Design bit of construction and put it in Make and took the nonconstruction bit of Make out, then you'd end up with roughly the same size as Make. So Construction business in total is about the same size as Make. And it is by far the largest part of the Make business. So at some point, the Construction business has to grow in the ZIP code of the Make business, which is why we say. So it's in that sort of Make is growing around 20%, and Construction has to be somewhere in that ZIP code.
And the -- in terms of -- and then the other important thing is we haven't seen any deceleration in growth. Actually the Construction business grew a fraction faster in Q2 than it did in Q1 on the sort of revenue side. So it continues to grow very, very nicely and is doing very, very well. And in terms of the drivers, Sid, do you want to sort of talk about that in terms of how we're keeping the business generating along?
Yes. So I think international for us is a big driver. I'll just call that out there, right? India, I'll just say -- so India is the third largest construction market globally now. We've got a really good presence there. I think we think of that market as a very big market for us. The Middle East as well, we're seeing some tremendous traction there. So international is going to be a big focus. The other place, if you just think about our journey, we've gone from effectively being a point solution, right? Our acquisition of PlanGrid. PlanGrid was a point solution for the field.
If you think of today, Autodesk Construction Cloud and within that Autodesk Build, which effectively gives you both the field workflows, but also office workflows. We are now coming into a market. And when you think of the market, it's very big. But then you think of the ENR 400, they're like the 400 largest general contractors. That has had some level of penetration by one of our customers, right -- our competitors. And those are long sales cycles when you start to come in there. But once you get into that space, those are large ACV deals, right? So we do think we are seeing a lot of good momentum in the ENR 400, I'd say ENR 1000 broadly.
The other area that we're seeing some really good traction, if you think about it, is owners. So owners are becoming a lot more accountable. We think of them as digital drivers. Historically, they've had a very hands-off approach. But now with everything that's happening and fundamentally, at the end of the day, if a project is delayed, they are the ones that are paying for it at the end of -- when all is said and done. So they're taking a lot of more accountability. So we're driving a lot more traction with owners. And you'll see some announcements coming out soon enough in terms of the wins we are having with these owners.
And then the final piece for us is really the specialty contractors. We don't talk enough about them, right? They are the ones that are actually making physical product, and they are already in our design tools heavily using our Revit for modeling purposes. And so capturing them with purpose-built solutions, I think then that enables us to capture that entire ecosystem of stakeholders on a project.
Great. Well, I think we are out of time. I really appreciate the discussion and looking forward to going to Autodesk University and then Investor Day you also have coming up next week. So you'll be busy.
October 7, not next week.
Yes. Next month, sorry, yes. All right. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Tyler.
Thank you.
Great.
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Autodesk — Citi’s 2025 Global Technology
Autodesk — Citi’s 2025 Global Technology
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Autodesk setzt konsequent auf branchenspezifische KI, um manuelle, zeitaufwändige Aufgaben zu automatisieren, komplexe Workflows zu beschleunigen und die Zugänglichkeit seiner Design‑Software zu erweitern. Ziel ist sowohl Effizienzgewinn beim Kunden als auch Marktausweitung durch neue, konsumptionsbasierte Erlösmodelle.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- AI‑Fokus: Langfristiger Aufbau (AI Lab seit 2018) mit eigener Forschung für 3D/physikalische Domänendaten, nicht nur generische Sprachmodelle; erste marktreife Features (z. B. AutoConstrain) sind live und iterieren schnell.
- Monetarisierung: Roadmap über ein Kontinuum: kleine On‑device/Subscription‑Features → größere Cloud‑Workflows → systemweite Automationen, die überwiegend konsumptionsbasiert (Pay‑per‑use) monetarisiert werden sollen.
- Produkt & Daten: Parallele Cloud‑/Datenarbeit: Disaggregation komplexer Modelle in granulare Datenobjekte zur einfachen Verteilung, Automatisierung und als Voraussetzung für skalierbare KI‑Anwendungen; Construction Cloud als Wachstumshebel, gestützt durch internationale Expansion und ENR‑400‑Tiefpenetration.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Updates: Konkrete operative Guidance oder Zahlen wurden nicht verändert. Nennenswerte Produkt‑Fakten aus dem Gespräch: AutoConstrain (Fusion) seit Markteinführung im Februar in mehreren Iterationen mit ~80% Akzeptanzrate; eigenes Compute‑/Ops‑Setup, das intern als deutlich effizienter beschrieben wird; Investor Day am 7. Oktober und verstärkte Präsenz auf Autodesk University.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bedeutung: Kurzfristig keine neuen Finanzkennzahlen, langfristig potenziell hoher Hebel: KI kann Nutzung und Umsatz pro Kunde erhöhen und ein wachsendes Verbrauchsmodell schaffen. Risiko bleibt in Implementierungszeit, Datenmigration in die Cloud und erfolgreicher Monetarisierung der größeren, cloudbasierten Automationsstufen.
Autodesk — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Autodesk Second Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the call over to Simon Mays-Smith, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thanks operator, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss Autodesk's fiscal '26 second quarter results. Andrew Anagnost, our CEO; and Janesh Moorjani, our CFO, are on the line with me.
During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, including outlook and related assumptions and on products, go-to-market and strategies. Actual events or results could differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings including our most recent Form 10-Q and the Form 8-K filed with today's press release for important risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from those in our forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements made during the call are being made as of today. If this call is replayed or reviewed after today, the information presented during the call may not contain current or accurate information.
Autodesk disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. We will quote several numeric or growth changes during this call as we discuss our financial performance. Unless otherwise noted, each such reference represents a year-on-year comparison. All non-GAAP numbers referenced in today's call are reconciled in our press release and supplemental materials available on our Investor Relations website.
And now I will turn the call over to Andrew.
Thank you, Simon, and welcome, everyone, to the call. Autodesk delivered strong second quarter results. Revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share topped the higher end of our guidance ranges, billings, non-GAAP operating margin and free cash flow exceeded our expectations. As a result, we are raising our guidance for the full year.
In an uncertain geopolitical macroeconomic and policy environment, 2 things remain clear. First, our strong momentum and performance in the first half of fiscal '26 set us up well to achieve our goals for the year. And second, we continue to make the right decisions to drive long-term shareholder value. We remain focused on executing our established strategic priorities in cloud, platform and AI, optimizing our sales and marketing to drive higher operating margins and allocating capital to ingrain investments, targeted and tuck-in acquisitions and continuing our share repurchase program as our free cash flow grows.
We have laid strong foundations for future revenue and operating margin growth and shareholder value creation. We're excited to tell you more about our plans at Autodesk University in September and at our Investor Day on October 7. I will now turn the call over to Janesh to discuss our quarterly financial performance and guidance. I'll then come back to update you on our strategic growth initiatives.
Thanks, Andrew. Q2 was another strong quarter. Overall, the underlying momentum of the business was similar to prior quarters and better than the assumptions that we had built into our guidance range. We saw strength in AECO where our customers are benefiting from sustained investment in data centers, infrastructure and industrial buildings, which is more than offsetting softness in commercial. The Autodesk store, billings linearity during the quarter and upfront revenue were also stronger than expected.
Our go-to-market optimization plan remains on track and operational friction from the new transaction model implementation continues to ease. Total revenue in the second quarter grew 17% as reported and 18% in constant currency. The contribution from the new transaction model to revenue was approximately $105 million in the second quarter. Total revenue grew 11% in constant currency and excluding the impact of the new transaction model. Please see the tables in our press release, earnings deck and XL Financials for details by product and region.
In the second quarter of this year, we started to cycle past the anniversary of acquisitions made last year, so I should note that we saw consistent make revenue growth in Q1 and Q2 if you remove the impact of acquisitions. Billings increased 36% as reported and 34% at constant currency, reflecting the shift to annual billings for most multiyear contracts and the transition to the new transaction model. The contribution from the new transaction model to billings was approximately $129 million in the second quarter. Billings grew 26% at constant currency and excluding the impact of the new transaction model. RPO of $7.3 billion and current RPO of $4.7 billion grew 24% and 20%, respectively, benefiting from tailwinds from the new transaction model.
Turning to margins. Second quarter GAAP and non-GAAP operating margins were 25% and 39%, respectively, reflecting year-over-year increases of 240 and 140 basis points, respectively. This reflected operating leverage, ongoing cost discipline and some timing benefits from restructuring partly offset by the margin drag from the new transaction model. Second quarter free cash flow was $451 million, which benefited from the earlier timing of billings in the quarter.
Moving on to capital allocation. We purchased approximately 1.2 million shares for $356 million at an average price of approximately $298 per share. Year-to-date, we have repurchased 2.5 million shares for $709 million. Turning to guidance. I will again speak to the numbers excluding the impact of the new transaction model and in constant currency to give you a clearer view of the underlying dynamics of the business. In the earnings deck, you'll see that we have split the impact of the new transaction model and currency movements for our fiscal '26 guidance.
The underlying momentum of business in the second quarter of fiscal '26 was consistent with recent quarters and better than the more cautious assumptions built into the bottom end of our prior guidance range. The macroeconomic environment seems broadly stable, but uncertainty remains elevated. As usual, we have a large pool of EBA renewals to close in the back half of the year. We will also start cycling against tougher new transaction model billings and revenue growth comparisons with last year, particularly in the fourth quarter.
We remain disciplined and focused on the controllable factors that drive our revenue, operating margin, earnings per share and capital allocation, which are the key building blocks of free cash flow per share. Reflecting all this, we've raised our billings guidance range to $7.355 billion to $7.445 billion and raised our revenue guidance range to $7.025 billion to $7.075 billion, which flows through the strength of the business in the first half to our full year underlying guidance, along with some additional tailwinds from FX. The bottom end of our full year guidance ranges reflect similar macroeconomic assumptions for the second half of the year, as we had outlined on the prior call.
We've also raised our non-GAAP operating margin guidance for the year to approximately 37% or approximately 40% on an underlying basis, which excludes the impact of the new transaction model. As you are aware, we initiated the optimization phase of our sales and marketing efficiency plan in February. We are making good progress and are on track to realize its expected benefits. These efficiency gains, combined with inherent operating leverage set us up well to expand our operating margin over time.
Assuming no material change in the external environment, we expect reported non-GAAP operating margin to be 41% in fiscal '29 or about 45% on an underlying basis, which excludes the mechanical impact of the new transaction model as it fully scales next year. This would represent a reported and underlying improvement of approximately 500 basis points and approximately 900 basis points, respectively, since we started to scale the new transaction model at the end of fiscal '24. We will tell you more about our plans at our Investor Day on October 7.
We've also raised our free cash flow guidance range for fiscal '26 by $88 million at the midpoint to $2.2 billion to $2.275 billion. As we said in February, utilization of U.S. deferred tax assets will mean we pay little U.S. federal cash tax in fiscal '26. We do not, therefore, get incremental cash benefit from the one big beautiful Bill Act this year. And finally, we've also raised our fiscal '26 share buyback targets by $100 million to between approximately $1.2 billion and $1.3 billion, which is a 40% to 50% increase compared to fiscal '25. The slide deck on our website has more details on modeling assumptions for the third quarter and full year fiscal '26.
Andrew, back to you.
Thank you, Janesh. Autodesk is focused on the convergence of design and make in the cloud, enabled by platform, industry cloud and AI. We are at the forefront of convergence because we've been evolving and investing in the business models products and platforms and go-to-market that capitalize on it. Let me give you a few examples from the quarter. Atkins Realis is a world-class engineering services and nuclear company. Over the years, it has embedded Autodesk technologies across its global delivery ecosystem to enhance design quality, reduce rework and support data-driven decision-making throughout the project life cycle. Having signed our sixth EBA with them this quarter, I'm excited that there is still so much more we can do through initiatives like automated model validation, enhanced interoperability and immersive XR based design reviews, Autodesk will help further streamline workflows and improve quality insurance.
AI-enabled design strategies, digital twin capabilities and Autodesk Construction Cloud will support its expanded service offerings and reinforce its position as a digitally enabled partner. Kimley-Horn is a premier planning and design consulting firm committed to growth and digital transformation. It renewed and expanded its relationship with Autodesk to accelerate the adoption of BIM solutions and Autodesk Construction Cloud. By fostering collaboration and productivity across the project life cycle, Kimley-Horn anticipates significantly increasing efficiency by the end of 2025.
Dynamic Energy is a full-service solar developer offering turnkey services for commercial, industrial, institutional and utility scale solar installations. Faced with workflow and forecasting challenges created by a lack of integration with its ERP, it selected Autodesk Construction Cloud to replace a competitive solution. The lack of integration with its existing ERP created challenges with client billing, inefficient invoice approval workflows and difficulty forecasting. Dynamic Energy will also leverage Autodesk Construction Cloud's mobile app off-line capabilities, multi-user workflows for inspection and KPI progress tracking. These stories have a common theme, converging people, processes and data across the project life cycle to increase efficiency and sustainability while decreasing risk. Our comprehensive end-to-end industry clouds and platform drive convergence and extend our footprint further into larger growth segments like data centers, infrastructure and construction and that is reflected in sustained strong revenue and new customer momentum in construction.
Moving on to manufacturing. We made excellent progress on our strategic initiatives. Customers continue to invest in their digital transformation and consolidate our design and make platform to drive growth and increase resilience. A leading European research institution for aerospace, energy and transportation was seeking to accelerate innovation and boost sustainability. To achieve these goals, while maintaining high standards of precision and risk control, it adopted Autodesk's product design and manufacturing collection. These advanced tools streamline data management, optimize workflows and shortened development cycles. By enabling increased virtual testing and simulation, it will significantly reduce its reliance on physical prototypes, supporting both efficiency and sustainability.
Motor scrubber is a market leader in innovative floor cleaning machines. It was looking to connect disciplines, data and workflows from design to manufacturing to drive efficiency and accelerate time to market. To do that, it has adopted fusion with the simulation, design and data management extensions to replace a competitive calculation. A leading multinational biopharmaceutical company is adopting Fusion to increase the resiliency of its supply chain to actual and potential disruption and drive operational efficiency. Using Fusion, it can quickly, collaboratively and securely design, make and document critical spare parts when needed. This minimizes downtime and production delays while maintaining documentation in this highly regulated industry.
Converge data opens up new opportunities for Autodesk. As customers seek to drive efficient innovation, Fusion is driving strong growth with extension attach rates increasing and driving average sales prices is higher and we're delivering meaningful productivity gains to customers where we deploy AI. We have continued to see success with our AI-powered sketch AutoConstrain in Fusion. Since its launch this year, the AI model has delivered over 1.2 million dimensions and has been retrained and the UX improved along the way. The acceptance rates of AutoConstrain suggestion to commercial users has grown to more than 60%, with 90% of those sketches fully constrained. That is a substantial productivity gain.
In education, ARNI University Chennai signed a strategic engagement with Autodesk to enhance student employability through modern applied engineering education across its 400-plus affiliated colleges. As part of the collaboration, a state-of-the-art design and make innovation center at the College of Engineering Ginde, will be equipped with Autodesk's cloud-based platforms to support hands-on training in digital manufacturing CNC machining and building information modeling. And lastly, we continue to find new ways for our customers to consume our products and services in ways that work best for them. For example, an iconic high-performance automotive manufacturer was looking to enable designers across its ecosystem with unified access to technology while retaining robust user management scalability.
Through a renewed agreement with Autodesk that included a combination of named user subscriptions and flex consumption tokens, it can serve users enterprise-wide and achieve its goals. This hybrid model provides a blueprint for scalable digital transformation across the automotive and manufacturing sectors. Attractive long-term secular growth markets our focused strategy of delivering ever more valuable and connected solutions to our customers and a resilient business are generating strong and sustained momentum both in absolute terms and relative to peers. Our disciplined execution is driving greater operational velocity and efficiency. We are deploying capital to grow the business, further reduce our share count and enhance value creation over time. In combination, we believe these factors will deliver sustainable shareholder value over many years.
To set the stage for Autodesk University Investor Day, let me close by talking about Autodesk AI. For more than a decade, Autodesk has been at the forefront of innovation in BIM, SaaS, generative design and now in generative AI. We have been building industry-specific foundation models and products capable of understanding and reasoning about 2D and 3D geometry, design and make data, complex structures and even physical behavior. For example, last year, we introduced Project Bernini, a generative AI model for 3D as part of a broader initiative to create professional-grade foundation models that will disrupt long-standing technology paradigms and redefine what we mean by software, platforms and products.
By combining our own spatial and physical reasoning with deep industry-specific knowledge, Autodesk AI will move beyond traditional deterministic and rule-based parametric kernels to deliver adaptive and context-aware AI-driven CAD engines. These engines will dramatically expand what's possible across the entire project life cycle, while eliminating much of the repetitive work and rework that slows projects down today. As we integrate these capabilities into our platform, Autodesk customers will be able to build their own AI models trained on their own data and infused with their unique context unlocking new differentiated sources of value, efficiency and competitive advantage while remaining confident that they are using AI in a way that is certified to be ethical, transparent and accountable.
We're excited about the road ahead, not only because of the industry-leading AI tools and foundation models we are creating, but also because of the go-to-market, industry cloud and platform foundations we've built over the last decade to scale AI successfully. We look forward to sharing more with you at Autodesk University and our Investor Day.
Operator, we would now like to open the call up for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Saket Kalia of Barclays.
2. Question Answer
Okay. Great. Great to see these results. Andrew, maybe just to start with you. given some of the headlines out there this quarter, I was wondering if you could just talk to us a little bit about your appetite for transformative M&A.
Yes. I think it's best probably to kind of restate our capital allocation strategy. First and foremost, Saket, we invest organically in the business to drive our strategy around platform, AI and all the things related to our product strategy. The second thing we look to do is we look at M&A as the next option. And we look at it for tech tuck-in reasons, really things that accelerate our existing road map and move us forward. And we look at it through the lens of targeted acquisitions that extend our adjacency strategy, things like construction operations. These kinds of acquisitions tend to be in the hundreds of thousands to the billions of dollars range, not in the tens of billions of dollars range, right?
The other thing, of course, we're doing is, as we have excess capital above and beyond those needs, we are accelerating the deployment of that to shareholders via stock buybacks that moved beyond offsetting dilution and accelerate and reduce the share count. So I think that's the best way to look at this moving forward.
That's super helpful. Thanks for knocking that out of the way first here. Janesh, maybe for you, great to hear the 41% margin goal in fiscal '29. Can you just walk us through some of the high-level assumptions and also guidance philosophy around that, if you could?
Saket, I'm happy to do that. So look, as I step back and look at the business overall, we're very pleased with our current momentum. We're excited about the opportunity ahead of us as well. In terms of the assumptions that we made, our absolute level of revenue growth in the future will then part depend on the rate of the underlying market growth and on the external environment as well. And so as we consider the margin targets that we've set, our goal was to make this achievable under various growth scenarios balancing opportunity and risk. And so we expect that the largest contribution to that margin expansion will come from sales and marketing. We're making good progress on the optimization phase of our sales and marketing efficiency plan that we had initiated back in February, and we're on track to realize the benefits from that. Also, we have inherent operating leverage in the model, and we've demonstrated that this year. And combined with the sales and marketing efficiency gains, I think that sets us up really well to achieve this long-term goal. And maybe the last thing I'll point out is that we do have some incremental margin headwinds from the new transaction model in fiscal '27. So as we think about the annual progress towards this margin target, we do not expect that to be linear.
Our next question comes from the line of Adam Borg of Stifel.
Awesome. Maybe for Andrew, in the script, you talked a lot about success in construction, and it's great to see that continued traction there. So maybe talk about what's leading to this ongoing momentum? How much runway you feel is left on ACC? And any color on what you're seeing both domestically or internationally would be really interesting.
Yes, Adam, happy to comment on that. So look, one of the things I want to make super clear is that -- the momentum in our construction business is unchanged. We're seeing similar momentum to what we saw in the past. There's no deceleration. It's performing quite well. And it's performing well across a broad swath of the business, performing well in the U.S. We continue to see wins up at the top of the pyramid. And we also continue to see wins in the mid-market. Our international performance is doing quite well, so we're growing well internationally. We're really happy with our payments business. It's performing quite well across the board. And I think that's really important because that brings us into another part of the ecosystem.
And I think without saying giving away AU items, we're going to be talking about a bunch of things at AU that I think continue to accelerate our position in areas like pre-construction and preconstruction planning and all the things associated with that, even some things that enhance the field experience. So we continue to stay focused on winning. We think we've built the most comprehensive end-to-end platform. We think we have the most modern platform. So we're really happy with where the performance is going and how it continues to maintain its momentum.
That's really helpful. And maybe just as a follow-up for Janesh. You talked about this, I think, in some of your guidance assumptions. But when you think about the EBA renewal opportunity in the back half of the year, just remind for us maybe the relative size of the cohort this year versus last year and next? And how is the pipeline shaking up in terms of renewals and expansion?
Adam. So overall, the first half was a strong first half for us. You've seen the strength from Q1 continue into the momentum that we demonstrated here in Q2 as well. And overall, we feel we are quite well set up for the back half of the year as well. The EBA renewal opportunity, there is a large pool of renewals out there. We have that in every year. And we also have a very large product subscription renewal based close. So there's a fair amount of business for us to close next year. But we've been executing well so far and the momentum has continued nicely until now, and we feel very good about the setup for the rest of the year.
Our next question comes from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer, Griffin Securities.
Janesh, let me start with you and then Andrew, my follow-up will be more technical nature. So Janesh, with regard to the increased billings guidance for the year, $165 million at the midpoint, can we perhaps parse that in terms of some of the mix dynamics? Could you comment in terms of what you're seeing in terms of customer usage telemetry, mix of collections versus stand-alone? Anything in terms of retention or perhaps gross up for us, if you could, some of those important pieces of the mix that drove the increase in billings guidance?
Jay, I'm happy to do that. Overall, what I'd say is that the areas of strength that we saw in the first half and particularly in Q2, we see those as continuing into the back half of the year as well. AECO continues to perform well construction. And broadly, I would say, make continue to be growth drivers for us. We see that playing out nicely in the business. If I think about some of the other metrics like the net revenue retention rates in the business, those are quite strong as well. We see those playing out nicely for the back half of the year. So overall, it's the broader momentum that we are seeing from the product innovation as well as the strength in the go-to-market execution that we developed in the first half of the year that is continuing into the back half of the year.
Okay. Andrew, we're looking forward to some of the usual updates at AU in a couple of weeks. But in the meantime, following up on your comments on technology and customer adoption, One of your most important initiatives the last few years has, of course, been APS and your new data models for AEC and manufacturing. And you've spoken to the concept of data granularity, all of those are differentiators. However, we've often seen in the industry over many years that customer adoption of fundamentally new approaches are plumbing, if you will, can perhaps be very time consuming, and we've seen that, for example, in TLM over the years where adoption can take quite a long time. So you're doing some very interesting technical work and you need to do it. But perhaps you could talk about how you're thinking of the adoption of these fundamentally new methods over the next number of years.
Yes. I think that's an excellent question. First off, let's talk about the granular data. So one of the things we do clearly see and we do track closely is API usage, and we're seeing continuous increases in API usage with some of our largest customers and even further down into the market. So people are starting to use this granular data to connect processes in different and unique ways. And I think that's really important. So they are adopting some of these key technologies. And as you know, a diffusion of adoption into the market varies by industry and pace. So I think when we look at this, we're going to see increasing adoption of the granular data and the APIs because it's solving a really significant problem for the customers.
And as we continue to roll out some of these productivity features through AI and through some of our new IP modes that we're creating around new foundation models, I think you're going to see ongoing continuing experimentation and use of many things. Like one of the things I said in the opening commentary was that our AutoConstrain feature in Fusion. It's now at a 60% acceptance rate, and it's doing 90% of the constraints automatically for the customers. and we're continuing to see more usage. That's a pretty high acceptance rate for a new technology. So it's actually really increasing productivity for our customers. These things will take time but we're already seeing lots of green shoots that there's an appetite for anything that enhances productivity or helps our customers wrangle data across their processes. There'll be more day you, Jay.
Our next question comes from the line of Jason Celino of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Really impressed on growth accelerate to 11%. I know you said the selling environment remains probably consistent versus prior quarters, but you still accelerated. Help us understand what was the driver here? If there were any subtle improvements? And then I'll have a follow-up.
Yes. Let me kind of comment on that. Like we said, broadly, the businesses are -- is performing similarly to prior quarters. There are always puts and takes, right? And so let me give you a sense for some of those puts and takes. From an industry perspective, AEC stood out with regards to growth in the AEC sector. And we see that driven primarily by secular strength in things like data centers, industrial buildings, read factories and other things like that. and in infrastructure. So AEC stood out. The other sectors were strong as well, but AEC stood out as one of the things increasing performance.
The next thing, when you look at it from a segment basis, EAs were strong, primarily driven by upfront revenue, which was great. And we also saw a lot of strength in the Autodesk store. And this is exactly what we expect as a result of the new transaction model because that strength in the store comes fundamentally from people coming to us who used to go to transaction-based partners lower down in our partner ecosystem. So that's a great result. And if you look at it geographically across the board, the Middle East and India stood out, in particular, for their infrastructure investments and some of the activities there. So those are some of the puts and takes that we saw this quarter that kind of differentiated things from other quarters.
Perfect. And then maybe just my follow-up for Janesh. Thank you for the operating margin framework in 2029. When we think about your comfortability with this, should we think about it with like a high degree of confidence in the sense that a lot of the sales and marketing leverage is in your control, and it's not necessarily reliant on growth, one way or the other. Maybe just that initial question, and I'm sure we'll have more at AU or Analyst Day. .
Jason, so on the underlying assumptions, as I mentioned, our goal was to make sure that this is an achievable target under various growth scenarios. So we did balance the opportunity and the risk. And we are set up well to execute against this goal. We've demonstrated great progress on this so far. Our sales and marketing optimization plans are on track, and we've been demonstrating the operating leverage that is inherent in the model. So we feel good about this.
Our next question comes from the line of Elizabeth Porter of Morgan Stanley.
Great to hear the operating margin targets in Q2. I'm looking to hear more at the Analyst Day. So for my first question, it sounds like you continue to embed a more cautious outlook from the tariff impact into the low end of guidance. Just given we're further through the initial tariff headlines, how have your customer conversations evolved? And how should we think about the potential for disruption risk to still play out in the back half of the year, the potential of that disruption may be coming in a little bit better than period?
Yes. So this is an excellent question, Elizabeth. So first off, just to comment on the guidance for the second half of the year. We maintained the same assumptions we had coming into the year for the second half of the year, where you think is prudent given in this environment. When we talk to our customers about tariffs, obviously, we're not directly impacted by tariffs as a software company. But some of our customers still are struggling with the same things that you're hearing about pricing pressures and some of the things that are associated with higher cost of goods for some of their products. But they're all coping and they're all coping quite well at this point. So we don't have customers raising additional red flags related to tariffs. And you can kind of get a sense for the guide strength from what I said previously, but I'd like Janesh to comment on that a little bit, too.
Yes, I think it's what you said, Andrew, you summarized it quite nicely. And Elizabeth, maybe just to tack on a couple of more tactical items to that. In terms of the underlying guidance assumptions on the macro, the bottom end does assume similarly cautious approach like we had or a similarly cautious set of assumptions like we had on the last call, so no change there. And in terms of other call-outs.
I'd just point out that as you compare the underlying guidance for the second half to the underlying performance in the first half, just recall that we had some acquisitions last year, which contributed to about a 1% point of growth for the full year. But most of that revenue contribution had come in the second half of last year. So that creates tough comps. And then earlier, I called out that the new transaction model also contributed more meaningfully both to billings and revenue in the second half of last year. So that does create tougher comps on an as-reported basis as well, particularly in Q4.
Great. And then just as my follow-up, our conversations with partners, we've heard about how spending time with existing customers on the transaction model rollout has just limited some of the ability to drive new customer demand. just given we're further through the model rollout, you've had some commission changes to incentivize that new business side. How are you seeing channel productivity and execution, particularly on that new business side of the business trend? And what are you assuming for the remainder of the year and the outlook for that new business side?
Yes. So obviously, one of the things we track very closely is the buildup of new business from our partners. We also track the renewal rates, of course. And what we've seen is this a steady increase in new business coming from our partners, this has continued on a steady basis. So we're seeing nice increases in new business through our partners. We expect that to continue because we're lapping the rollouts, customers are getting much more comfortable with the renewal motions. They're working on their internal efficiencies. So we've already seen a nice stair like pattern on new business, and we expect that to continue as we move through the year.
Our next question comes from the line of Taylor McGinnis of UBS.
Congrats on the quarter maybe just on the operating income margin guide for the full year. So if I look at the adjusted numbers for the model change, it looks like it wasn't raised as much as the revenue guide. So could you just maybe walk us through how your expectations for expense growth for the year have changed or are evolving? And where the incremental investments are going? And anything to comment, I guess, in terms of timing of expenses, just given 2Q looks pretty strong.
Taylor, I'll take that one. So if you look at the business on an underlying basis once you pull out the effects of the new transaction model, the increase that we saw in the guidance for the full year does result in an incremental margin flow through about 2/3 of the incremental revenue. So we think that's a strong demonstration of the operating leverage. So I think it's just some of those modeling pieces that need to be factored in. There are some timing issues always that creep into this, and that's why we manage primarily from a full year perspective. But overall, we've demonstrated great cost discipline so far. The restructuring plan that we had started at the beginning of this year has been implemented quite nicely, and we're staying on plan for our overall spending for the year as we drive the business forward.
Our next question comes from the line of Joe Vruwink of Baird.
I wanted to ask about AI in the manufacturing setting. And just to tee this up a bit, Autodesk made a strategic investment. I think this week in an AI CAM offering, and this an example of a company you are already working with through Fusion already available in the App Store. And so I was wondering, how does Autodesk ultimately think about the role it needs to play in AI? Is ensuring fusion as a central part of the mix and customers' development efforts? Is that the key focus and particularly knowing that start-ups will probably seek you out for exposure to the manufacturing data model over time. I guess, what informs decisions to buy or partner or further invest in the plumbing to the earlier question?
Yes. So I think that's a great question, Joe. Look, first off, we see a lot of value creation in AI moving forward, both in retaining revenue and retaining value and creating whole new value. And our strategy is very much focused on creating a new IP layer, a new IP moat around our own kind of custom foundation models that will not only be useful to us, but be useful to third parties as well who want to extend and use some of our capabilities. So while we're actually working on money on making tasks more productive like what we're doing with auto constraint and some of the things we'll do with Autodesk assistance.
We're also moving into workflows and ultimately into system-level type automation. So look for us to continue to build this portfolio of custom foundation models that are accessible to us and partners. Of course, we always like to look at promising start-ups out in the ecosystem that are doing things. We know a lot about what that particular can vendor is doing. We like what they're doing. They're doing unique things and exposed to unique customers. And we're going to watch what they're doing and partner closely with them. We think they're a good extension to what we're doing already. but look for us to also organically develop these core foundation models. We already have, obviously, some of those things are featured in Fusion. Fusion is not the only place these will show up. obviously, Fusion is the core place that we will develop these AI features for the manufacturing segment. But you're going to also see a lot more interesting stuff in AEC at AU, and we're looking forward to talking about some of that work as well.
Okay. That's great color I wanted to circle back to what's implied in the second half guidance. And I appreciate kind of the tough comps on an as-reported basis. I guess I was looking at what's implied by the ex currency and ex transaction model. And it does look like the growth rate steps down in 4Q. Just wondering if that's pragmatism or you're sensitive to the big transaction so you make a close assumption or an ACV assumption, and that's baked in? Or is there anything more discrete you would point to for kind of the 4Q exit rate and growth?
It's just a function of the guidance assumptions that we've used. We were prudent when we set the guidance entering the quarter that served us well we're maintaining the same posture as we look at the back half of the year.
Our next question comes from the line of Ken Wong of Oppenheimer & Company.
Fantastic. Janesh, just a quick kind of clarification on Elizabeth's question. Just making sure that, that low end of the new guidance does -- is insulated from, I think, the prior comments being COVID like kind of conditions, like is that a fair way to think about the downside protection to the newly revised low end?
Yes, absolutely, it is. No change in the underlying approach. We still assume similar kinds of impacts as we did last quarter. The only difference, of course, is that we only have 6 months to go in the year versus 9 months ago in the year.
Got it. Understood. And Andrew, it sounds like lots of AI announcements potentially on the com at AU. I mean I would love to get a sense for what you feel the appetite for some of these technologies are from this end market. Again, Autodesk has been at the forefront in terms of cloud. And I think you guys have a good sense of the pace at which this end market moved? How would you say they're thinking about AI and the willingness to adopt?
Yes. Look, as you said, Ken, we tend to be out in front of these things, and we're out in front. We were out in front with a lot of 3D advancements we're out in front with a lot of cloud advancements. We very much intend to be out in front with the AI advancements. All of our customers are looking for capacity and productivity. They are hungry for trying to figure out what real-world AI can do for some of their workflows and some of the kind of productivity gaps they have. So we are heavily invested in making the task of creating these sophisticated complex 3D models a lot easier, a lot faster and a lot more intuitive, and I think that's going to be very, very valuable to our customers. And like I said, over the course of time, we're starting with tasks, we're moving to workflows and we'll be moving to systems, and we'll monetize these things through a combination of subscription, consumption and outcomes, also business models that we are well ahead of the industry on with regards to making them mainstream in our offerings. So the customers have an appetite. We have to make it easy for them. And I think when we get to AU, you're going to see some pretty compelling things that we're bringing to various products, primarily forma infusion that I think our customers are going to find incredibly attractive and incredibly useful.
Our next question comes from the line of Josh Tilton of Wolfe Research.
My first question is I totally understand that you guys continue to bake in the conservatism in the guidance at the low end given the environment is still very uncertain. But it also kind of sounds like you're not seeing any disuncertainty play out. You said the momentum this quarter was similar to last quarter. And what I'm trying to understand is when you look at your fancy dashboards and your widgets and whatever you guys track to indicate the momentum of the business. If none of this uncertainty does actually end up panning out, like what's going to be the tail of the Autodesk story come Q4? Like are we still going to hear the momentum of the business was the same with prior quarters? Or are we going to hear like you exited the year with things getting better, stronger execution? Like how do we think about the direction of the business this year if none of this uncertainty ends up panning out?
Josh, maybe to start with, I'll just say that Andrew's dashboard looks fancier than mine. But look, in all seriousness, the low end of the guidance -- the low end of the guidance assumes a more conservative outlook. And if the world stays the way it is right now, then you should expect us to come in ahead of the low end of that range. And at the middle and high end of the ranges, we've assumed that the world stays as it is. And beyond that, we'll focus on execution and work hard to try and outperform.
Makes sense. But maybe just to dive one step deeper on there. I guess, like are you guys going to outperform just because the guidance is prudent? Or do you guys see the underlying momentum improving? I think those are 2 different things if you kind of understand what I'm trying to ask.
I would expect the underlying momentum in the business to continue the way it has been in the first half of the year. We've been executing really well. There are things that we can control and we focus on those, and we've done well against that so far.
And remember, that underlying momentum includes improvement in partner-driven new business. Like I said, we saw -- we've already seen improvements in partner new business. We expect to continue to see improvements in partner new business.
Makes sense. And just to clarify, I would expect you guys to have the most state-of-the-art fancy dashboards. That wasn't anything negative.
We do have fancy dashboards.
But maybe just a quick follow-up, Autodesk University, you guys kind of gave away, I think, the thing everybody was expecting the long-term target on margins. So Obviously, there's going to be a big talk around AI. Andrew, maybe from your perspective, like if you were a betting man, you guys have lots of products, lots of things you can embed AI into. Like what are you most excited about across the entire product set from an AI perspective and maybe which piece do you see being the most impactful in the most near-term matter, if that makes sense?
Yes. Look, I'm very excited about the convergence that we're driving between design and make and how we're bringing together these disciplines and kind of streamlining workflows across what our products are doing. There's lots of really fancy deep AI will be talking about, built off of our foundation models that will become increasingly smarter. But one of the things that's going to be really exciting at AU is just talking about the nuts and bolts capabilities of the Autodesk assistant and how our customers are just going to be able to do things through a series of prompt driven workflows or different types of UIs that just simply make their jobs a lot easier. I think people are going to find these things to be very attractive, very understandable and relevant to what they do today. So while we're building out the future and I guarantee you we are building out the future. AI may eat software, but it's not going to eat Autodesk. We are very much interested in making sure people see real productivity gains today as they see kind of fantastic productivity gains in the future. and those productivity gains that we provide for them will create value for Autodesk.
Our next question comes from the line of Siti Panigrahi of Mizuho.
Perfect. Congrats on a really strong quarter. I wanted to ask about this channel activity. It's been a year since the new transaction model and also you talked about some of the channel consolidation. So what kind of impact are you seeing from the new transaction model? Mainly you talked about some partners probably might have gone through the first renewal in June. So I would love to hear any kind of productivity improvement you're seeing there.
Yes. So look, there's a couple of things that are important and they're playing out exactly as we thought they would. So first off, the lower level channel ecosystem, what we call non-contracted partners and silver partners and even the low end of gold. A lot of that business is starting to come directly to Autodesk, which is a massive efficiency improvement in terms of our ability to engage with customers and understand those customers and engage in price realization with those customers. that's working as we expected it to, and we expect that to continue moving forward.
The other thing with the partners is it's really just them getting comfortable with renewing their business and looking at their new business as they would lap when we rolled out the new transaction model and they come to the second renewal cycle on some of these customer deals. They've already got the customers in the system. They're already able to renew the customer and move on to focusing to expanding the customers of the new business. We're seeing all of those things happening. And as those things happen, we're seeing the new business generated by the partners increasing month over month over month. So all of this is as expected. We haven't seen any kind of movement in the channel that is outside of the bounds of what we were expecting, and we're really comfortable and actually pretty happy with what we're seeing.
And Siti, maybe just to add...
Go ahead.
Siti, just the renewals that you mentioned. So we did see the Americas partners get their first renewals on the new model in June. That went as expected as Andrew said, and we've got the EMEA partners coming up for their first renewals in the new model in September.
Okay. That's great. And as a follow-up to Autodesk Construction Cloud, we continue to hear some kind of positive feedback in terms of the feature set. So what competitive displacement trends are you seeing? Is it fair to say that with this new direct model transition, you'll see further axles on the ACG side, your direct sales guys can try to cross-sell .
Here's what I'll say, all right? Our momentum continues to be consistent in construction. So we continue to do well every quarter, right? We continue to build out functionality is on a modern stack. This is a modern, sophisticated stack. It's not an old collection of software from 20 years ago or so. We've built something modern and we built something that's heavily connected. We have the best-in-class design to make solution. And we also have the best-in-class preconstruction planning tools. Customers notice this. So if they're not on our system today, A lot of them are already talking about being on a systems tomorrow. And this is just a matter of us continuing to execute, deliver on the commitments we've made to our customers and keep moving this very modern, very connected, I think, very powerful stack forward and bringing more customers on. I see nothing out there right now that's going to slow our momentum. Only new types of offerings that we'll be talking about that should increase our momentum moving forward.
Our next question comes from the line of Tyler Radke of Citi.
One of the areas you highlighted was the strength in the online store and the direct business and I guess a couple of questions there. Is there any new PLG motions or marketing initiatives you're doing? And then secondly, how have you sort of seen the evolution of the transaction model have you been able to capture a bit more of that business directly just given the changes? Obviously, you're getting a lot more data in terms of the end customer.
Yes. So look, with regards to the store, this was an area of investment and focus for us. We want the store to be highly efficient. We want the store to capture those customers that are no longer going to be working with transactional-based partners. We want our best partners to serve their customers and grow their customers, but we want to make sure the store captures those customers. And yes, we have invested in PLG motions that drive new business to the store with relation to construction and fusion and products like that, that are well suited to those motions. All right. So that is an investment area. That's the direction we continue to work in.
In terms of understanding our customers better and automating the cross-sell, upsell and the self-service capabilities, that's still going to take time. We are continuing to evolve our self-service capabilities, and we are now learning more about the customers through the direct relationship we have. But monetizing that and turning that into a repeatable motion is going to take time. So that's something that's coming in the future. But the store -- that's a great area of investment and a significant area of focus for us.
And Tyler, this was part of the thesis that we laid out at the start of the year when we said we need to reinvest some of the dollars back into building out additional self-serve capabilities. So that's on track for us.
Great. And Janesh, just on the margins, the Analyst Day is coming up here in a little over a month. Why did that FY '29 outlook now? And like was there some sort of process you went through to get there? And how should we think about free cash flow margins in that same time frame?
Yes. Tyler, we are well aware that the question of the long-term margins has been a question of high interest to many of our stockholders. And so what we wanted to do when I first came into the job is we -- we wanted to take the time to update our internal long-term view even as we began optimizing our go-to-market efforts already. And now we're almost complete with our long-term planning cycle. So we're in a position where we could share our views, and that's why we are doing that today.
In terms of thinking about the evolution of free cash flow over that time frame, there'll be some puts and takes next year as we navigate some of the unique factors around the taxes and so forth. But fundamentally, as the overall business model settles and the new transaction model takes hold, the free cash flow and operating income should move generally with a very high degree of correlation to each other.
Our next question comes from the line of Koji Ikeda of Bank of America.
Great to be back on these Autodesk calls, looking forward to it. Specifically, Question here specifically within the construction industry. I wanted to hear some of your thoughts on what sort of triggers in the industry could drive even more budget unlock for your largest global general contractor customers? I mean more projects is the simple answer. So digging a layer beyond that, what can help drive more projects? Is there something from a regulatory standpoint or maybe a project financing standpoint? I mean, any sort of color there on more budget unlock?
Yes. Look, our customers suffer from a capacity problem, right? They actually already have a backlog, and they're not really executing on the backlog as fast as they'd like. So productivity does matter here. Now of course, there are things that can be done. The regulatory environment in some places is far too complex to building things. Even states like California have taken actions to look at what kind of regulations we're getting in the way of building things. And they've stepped back from some of those regulations to allow buildings. These things matter. They're important. They are big factors in the ecosystem. None of them are going to be huge unlocks because we already have a backlog in the industry, and they need the productivity now in order to execute.
I think one of the things we see being really important long term is industrialized construction is the only company that's both in manufacturing and AEC in the Construction segment. We really want to help some of our customers capitalize on things like prefabrication and other types of methods that increase their predictability and their project throughput and in some cases, their profitability and also make the delivery times more certain for the projects. That's going to be a technological or process unlock in the future. But of course, there's always things we can look at from a regulatory perspective that would unlock things and people are already looking at them.
Got it. And maybe just a quick follow-up for Janesh. When I look at the NRR language in the deck, I saw that the language slightly changed to above from slightly above last quarter. And so wondering if you could talk a little bit about NRR trends, ex new transaction model. Is there any change this quarter versus last quarter? And how much of that language improvement was driven by the transaction model?
Koji, it's great to have you on the Autodesk story again, by the way, as well. So looking forward to working together. In terms of the NR 3 trends, I'd say it's really hard to disaggregate the specific percentage between the underlying performance and the new transaction model on that. But it is safe to say that excluding the impact of the new transaction model, it would have been consistent with where it previously was. So it's within that range of 100% to 110% that we've talked about in the past. It can bounce around a little bit every quarter. But overall, it reflected just the strength of our Q2 performance here that we've passed along to the full year. But overall, it was consistent with our general expectations.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Turrin of Wells Fargo Securities.
And apologies if it's somewhat similar, but all the color you've been adding throughout the call is useful. So I'm wondering on the commentary on AEC's strength and we look at lot of the top line metrics look pretty consistently solid here. The CAD growth improvement we're seeing. I'm just wondering if you can help us at all parse whether any of that could be tied to macro settling a bit from where things sat 3 months ago and this is very amplified in terms of the uncertainty around April and just having to react to that. So just maybe compare and contrast just the tone of conversation and how you know that it's not some modest line of improvement relative to what you were hearing a few months ago. And then just more color on the signals you're watching is always useful.
Look, Michael, what you're seeing here is the power of the diversification of Autodesk. Autodesk touches every aspect of the built world and the rebuilt world, touches everything from the civil infrastructure space, to vertical construction, all types of buildings. And remember, we've had discussions over multiple years, '07 and '08, oh my gosh, the housing market is going down, Autodesks in trouble. But guess what? Money shifted over to the other things because there's such a backlog of things that need to be built.
Right now, we're seeing strength in those 3 areas. I talked about data centers, industrial buildings, and infrastructure. As we move forward, there's going to be strength in other segments. So the need to build is not going away. And I think what you're seeing is a strong stabilization in certain areas. And also as we move through the cycle, there'll be other areas that come up. So I think you want to really anchor yourself on the diversification of Autodesk's business here because that's really what's powering our performance right now.
I said good color with each question. So I appreciate the diversification response. Janesh, just on free cash flow, the majority of that back half weighted now in Q4. Is that a bit more pronounced to Q4 than what you were previously expecting? And just anything additional you can add as we're tuning our models for the rest of the year there?
It will be a little bit more weighted towards Q4. I think you'll see that reflected in the modeling guidelines as well. And I think that just reflects the timing of when we expect EBAs and some of our larger product subscription renewals to be able to be available for collections.
That is all the time we have for Q&A today. I would now like to turn the conference back to Simon Mays-Smith for closing remarks. Sir?
Thanks, Latif, and thanks, everyone, for coming along. Sorry, we can get to all of the questions, but we're going to be seeing a bunch of you on the road over the coming weeks, which we'll look forward to. If you have any follow-up questions, please just ping me an e-mail, and we'll get back to you as soon as we can. I look forward to catching up with you on the road or on our Q3 earnings call. Thank you.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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Autodesk — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Autodesk — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: Q2 Gesamtumsatz +17% reported / +18% konstant (Jahresvergleich); Beitrag des neuen Transaktionsmodells: ~$105 Mio.
- Billings: +36% reported / +34% konstant; Transaktionsmodell trug ~$129 Mio. bei.
- RPO: $7,3 Mrd. Gesamt RPO, aktuelles RPO $4,7 Mrd. (+24% / +20% YoY).
- Margen & FCF: GAAP OP-Marge 25% (+240 bp), non-GAAP OP-Marge 39% (+140 bp); Free Cash Flow $451 Mio.
- Aktienrückkäufe: Q2 ~1,2 Mio. Aktien für $356 Mio.; YTD 2,5 Mio. für $709 Mio.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Strategie: Fokus auf Konvergenz von Design und Fertigung in der Cloud über Plattform- und Branchensoftware plus AI; Aufbau branchenspezifischer Foundation-Modelle (z. B. Project Bernini).
- GTM & Kosten: Go‑to‑market‑Optimierung und Sales-/Marketing‑Effizienz sollen substantiell zur Margenausweitung beitragen; laufende Restrukturierungen liefern Timing‑Vorteile.
- Kapital: Priorität auf organischem Wachstum, gezielten „tuck‑in“ Akquisitionen und beschleunigten Rückkäufen bei steigendem FCF.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- FY‑Billings: erhöht auf $7,355–7,445 Mrd.
- FY‑Umsatz: erhöht auf $7,025–7,075 Mrd.; Guidance getrennt nach Währungs- und Modell‑Effekten.
- Margen & FCF: non‑GAAP OP‑Marge FY26 ~37% (≈40% „underlying“, ohne Transaktionsmodell); FCF erhöht auf $2,20–2,275 Mrd.; Rückkaufziel FY26 $1,2–1,3 Mrd.
- Risiken: großes Pool an EBA‑Erneuerungen H2, härtere Vergleiche in Q4 wegen früherer Modellumstellungen und mögliche makro Unsicherheit.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- M&A‑Appetit: Management will vorrangig Tech‑Tuck‑ins zur Roadmap‑Beschleunigung; keine transformative „mega‑M&A“‑Pläne genannt.
- Margin‑Pfad: Ziel 41% (reported) / ~45% (underlying) in FY29 basiert vor allem auf Sales‑&‑Marketing‑Effizienz plus operativer Hebelwirkung; Zeitverlauf nicht linear.
- Adoption & Kanal: Nachfrage nach AI‑Funktionen und API/Datengranularität wächst; Partnerrollen verschieben sich durch neues Transaktionsmodell, konkrete NRR‑Aufschlüsselung blieb begrenzt; weitere Details bei Autodesk University / Investor Day erwartet.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Starke Q2‑Performance mit Aufwärtsrevision der Jahresziele, klarer Margenroadmap und erhöhten Rückkaufplänen. Kurzfristig gilt es, EBA‑Erneuerungen und Q4‑Vergleiche zu beobachten; mittelfristig stützen Cloud‑, Plattform‑ und AI‑Investitionen sowie GTM‑Effizienz die positive Thesis für Aktionäre.
Autodesk — SIGGRAPH 2025
1. Management Discussion
Please welcome to the stage the Senior Vice President of Research at Autodesk, Mike Haley.
Welcome, everybody. For as long as humans have lived, we have been creative. Indeed, to be creative is what makes us human. And nobody embodies creativity like Leonardo da Vinci, a prolific polymath and inventor years ahead of his time. His drawings and ideas persist to this day. Now Leonardo existed at an interesting point in history when there was an abundance of time to think deeply about creating a world that had both function and beauty.
Now as the world accelerated, we've often assigned creative beauty to a category of optional or costly. Instead of rewarding beauty, we rewarded function. But at the same time, we've seen new challenges arrive at our shores in the forms of climate change, population density, new energy sources and more, even more reasons to ignore beauty.
I have a provocation for you. Just as in Leonardo's time, when there was an abundance of time, I suggest that we will have an abundance of creativity. It's not that we'll have more time. Indeed, in media and entertainment, likely even less in the future, but we will be able to do orders of magnitude more creative work in an AI-powered world. With AI, we see a return to a focus on what matters: melding beauty and function, creating devices that you want to hold because they embody the love a designer put into them or building warm environments where people can thrive and connect, and telling an incredible story that touches your audience. Today, we don't get enough time to be creative. We're all caught up in the muck of getting things done. But these changes will give us more time to be creative.
Perhaps one of Leonardo's most iconic images was that of the Vitruvian man. This is a family-friendly event, so please excuse my slightly censored version of the original image. AI is pretty good at removing naughty bits from pictures, by the way. It turns out that -- so AI is powering innovation and increasingly disrupting, as you all know, the entire economy. It's happening in every single industry. I'm going to use the Vitruvian man as a guide to take you on a journey to see how designing in a fully AI world will create this abundance of creative energy.
So let's start with how we interact with creativity-enabling technology today. We have become so used to keyboards, mice screens and the restrictive inputs of even the most modern computers that we don't question it. Artists and animators learn to draw and then they move to 3D animation and CAD software and they leave their sketchpads behind. Why shouldn't we be able to talk with our computers while quickly sketching out a rough idea and then have a discussion with the computer about that idea? Rather, we are accustomed to reducing ourselves to the level of the computers' capabilities.
I suggest that AI is ushering in a new era where our senses and our natural physical actions, much like in Leonardo's times, are what we will use to be more naturally creative. And this is great news for creativity as it means more accessible tools powering greater and greater expression.
I'm going to share some examples of our research to illustrate my thesis. We have a rich history of original research at Autodesk. Our industrial research lab is over 20 years old with over 600 research publications, 150 of which were published here at SIGGRAPH or other ACM conferences. Now we've published over 90 scientific papers on AI for CAD and geometry. We strive to share discoveries that advance all the industries we serve. And there is an advantage to having a broad perspective. We are not focused purely on media and entertainment, but on all creators, artists and designers across many industries.
As our interest and expertise in artificial intelligence grew, we established a formal AI lab in 2018 to accelerate our fundamental and applied research in AI and machine learning. And last year, we announced our first experimental generative AI model, Project Bernini. Let's take a look at this research to see how creativity might function in an AI-mediated world.
In this example, I took my iPad and sketched a car. I don't have great skills, but it took my sketch and it understood the shape of the car in 3 dimensions. It knew I would need 4 wheels. It offered a hollow body, but it also gave an option with a solid shape. It isn't perfect, but that only took a few seconds to generate.
In one instance, the model understood that I might want side mirrors. Here, I can communicate with the computer through the very natural method of sketching. Keep in mind that this hasn't been trained on cars. It doesn't understand the discipline of car manufacturing. Instead, it's been trained on shape geometry. We are moving far beyond this now in our research. But already, we are beginning to find that something like simple sketching can fundamentally change the way you create geometry. Natural interactions like these are exciting, they're really exciting. But what if we could go further?
The human mind, although amazing, is no match for the computational capabilities of modern computers. And in a world where most design problems are inherently systems problems, involving dozens or even hundreds of variables, perhaps we can do better. AI augmented design can go beyond the interface of the computer to reasoning about the entire solution space, being a brain partner that can explore design variations or instantly test out a range of engineering options.
The next example I'm going to show you is from Autodesk's research team as well. This is a site in West Oakland in the Bay Area. It's a site right next to the highway. And as you can see, it's been -- you can see right next to the highway then, it has been set aside for affordable housing. The state of California also wants to make this a low-carbon site. They also want to build it cheaper and they want to build it in half the time that it typically requires. So not too many constraints, right? Kind of faster, cheaper, better sort of sounds like most film and game productions, right?
So we started working with a couple of partners to figure out how we could apply AI to this. We built the first AI tool that could figure out all the possible ways to lay out the buildings on that property. You're looking at the different balances of green spaces and orientations of the buildings and more. The software is also considering highway noise, building heights, the accessibility and some materials. You can see all the different sort of balances in that radar chart there. The AI was able to look across all those elements and gather all these variables at the same time. Now this is exactly the kind of thing that's typically hard for a designer to do. Your brain cannot extend across all these variables simultaneously, but the AI could optimize across all of them.
Then we started working with a prefabricated module company for this entire building because if you want to do it fast and you wanted to do it cheaply, prefabrication is probably the way to go. So then we went with this company that could build things 40% to 50% faster and make them less expensive. That's their site over there on Mare Island in the North Bay. We could take the fundamental design objectives and explore the full space.
Here, you see it exploring the different configurations of the modules into the different buildings. The colors represent different functions of types of modules, 1-bedroom apartment, 2-bedroom apartments, kitchens, stairwells, et cetera. Now notice on the right, it's also computing embodied carbon. It's also optimizing the cost. So now you get a representation that the designer can quickly understand the trade-offs of the variables we just discussed. Currently under construction, here is an artist rendering of the site of what it will look like when it's complete.
Now just as a film or game director guides a production, so does an architect, directing many teams and moving parts to match their vision. And if a language model can predict the next word, why not predict the character's next move.
So let's turn our attention to your pursuits, your artistry. As AI learns to model behavior from data, it can learn to predict character behavior. We hope to create the next generation of animation software that increases the artist's time to be creative.
Here's an example of an animator using Maya to create a simple walk cycle using a process that is not too far from the stop motion or traditional animation. They're grabbing rig controllers. They're posing the character. They're keying those poses. They're going back and forth between their reference and the graph editor, adding more and more poses, playblasting, refining their key frames. I'm not going to play the entire time lapse, but this was a time-consuming exercise for the artist, all to get what's essentially 2 steps that are copied into a walk cycle. So even though this process has been entirely digitized in software rather than with pen and paper, it remains tedious. It takes a lot of effort to achieve that natural movement.
In contrast, here's an art-directed animation that was completed in a few minutes in Maya on a production-ready rig with only a handful of key frames. Again, the artist completed this in just a few minutes, and this was done using the work that I'm going to share with you today and a new Maya tool called MotionMaker. We trained this learning tool exclusively on motion capture data from human and canine actors that Autodesk produced. MotionMaker quickly animates characters based on the instructions the animator gives it, including the points in 3D space that the character travels through and within a given time frame.
Throughout this process, the artist maintains control over the animation, and they can adjust and tweak the character's initial motion path and rigging. The software rapidly offers an artist a starting point to refine and then enhance. MotionMaker eliminates that tedium. It accelerates your work and it increases your capacity to be more creative, thinking for more options quickly.
I hope this gives you some idea of how creativity might play out in the age of AI, how AI may enable interaction with computers that include all of our natural forms of communication. Everything I've shown you is active research here at Autodesk, and MotionMaker is now available in Maya.
At some level, like Leonardo da Vinci, we are all researchers: exploring questions, testing hypotheses and sharing discoveries. And now AI will help anybody with a story to tell, quickly explore their characters, test their ideas and share their vision. AI is removing the technical obstacles to human creativity. No more keyboard and mouse thinking, you work and express however you feel most comfortable, and AI meets you there. I truly believe that AI will be transformative for all of you, bringing even more creativity and beauty to your work. AI is another technology. It's another tool.
If Leonardo were alive today, I have no doubt that he would be a power user of modern AI tools, allowing his creativity to flow to entirely new levels by leveraging these new natural tools and extending his reasoning capability. Perhaps he might draw the Vitruvian man a little differently. And just as Autodesk concluded canine characters in our MotionMaker tool, perhaps Leonardo would have conceived a Vitruvian dog.
Thank you very much. Now it's my pleasure to introduce my colleague from Montreal and Autodesk's talented strategist for Media and Entertainment, Maurice Patel.
Thank you, Mike. Hello, everyone. Every story starts with someone imagining what can be, not just what is. The story starts in your head where your imagination is limitless, but getting it to the screen requires talent, tools and budget, all of which limit what you can do. Yet technology can help you overcome such limitations.
Take computers. One story that's always resonated with me is Pixar's Luxo Jr., not just because it was made by computers, but because it's so engaging. I mean, who knew a lamp could be so expressive. Using computers, the talented artists at Pixar then went on to craft the world's first fully CGI feature film, Toy Story. Another highly imaginative story made possible by technology was James Cameron's Avatar. To make it possible, teams at Weta, Lightstorm and Autodesk collaborated to develop the world's first virtual production tools and help bring the Na'vi to life.
And it's not just large studios using new technology to tell their stories. I was recently captivated by an upcoming game from a husband and wife duo, Rachel and Aneel Glendenning, and their team at Friday Sundae, a small game studio in England. The original composition of their '80s punk and ska music was what really drew me in because I was a kid in the '80s. It really captivated me. Today, technologies like Unreal Engine and Maya are making it easier for authors like Rachel and Aneel to tell stories with unprecedented levels of creativity.
New technology, whether it's computers, real-time engines, help unlock stories. I believe this will also be true of AI. It's arriving right at the point where the industry needs change. It's no secret, our industry is under intense pressure. Since COVID, studios have lost an astounding $30 billion in streaming content. And across just 2 generations of console, the cost of making a AAA game has gone up tenfold from $20 million to $200 million. If those costs were passed on to a consumer, we would be paying $600 a gain. This has led to a vicious cycle of make it or break it with crunch times and layoffs, which just isn't sustainable. The industry needs to change, and it will, whether we want it to or not. Technology will drive that change. You can see it already with procedurally generated content, real-time pipelines and of course, machine learning or AI.
What will AI mean for us, for artists? Well, I believe AI will change the industry, just like computers did 30 years ago. Remember, Toy Story. Its success disrupted an entire industry. Hand-drawn 2D animation became computer-generated 3D animation. I myself have changed what I do several times from mining to teaching English to computer graphics. Change is uncomfortable, and it can be downright scary. So let me tell you a little bit about my experience with change.
When I started working in visual effects, computers were expensive and limited in what they could do. Back then, most visual effects were practical, miniature models, animatronics, optical compositing. And my first job was teaching people how to use computers instead. So some computers were scary, but quite frankly, they seemed like cheats. I mean, where's the skill in pointing and clicking. To them, it did not feel like a real craft.
Yet fast forward to today and now, not using a computer is inconceivable. And while practical effects still exist, computers have propelled visual effects from a niche craft to a career for hundreds and thousands of artists. Teaching taught me that it's the tool, not the task that makes the artist. It's the talent. [ Sinon ] users became Shake users. Shake users became Nuke users. The tools disappeared, but the artists remained. Technology may change the way we work, but it also creates new work and often more of it, which is why I am an AI optimist. I believe in human adaptability, but also in AI's limits as an engineered technology.
There are 3 reasons why I believe artists can have a future in a world of AI. One, AI is not human. It can never experience smelling cherry blossoms in the rain. It hallucinates, but it does not dream. It has no emotions, no awareness, no imagination. It only has patterns. It has learned from the data it was trained on. Yet good stories connect precisely because they are born from our imagination and forged by our perspectives and emotions, which is why I believe that to tell good stories, AI will need to be directed by artists. It's not sentient, it's just a tool, albeit a powerful one.
Second, art is a craft. We all know nothing is ever final. It's never perfect. My wife is a jeweler. Before she casts in silver or gold, she sculpts in wax. She will spend days, sometimes weeks, fine-tuning a design before she's ready to cast it. To her, it is never perfect. Crafting is a human process of refining a real-world result towards an ideal imaginary state. AI cannot do that. It has no notion of what is ideal, but it can give you more options to hone your craft. I envision a future where content creators will work with AI, much like a movie director works with the cast of actors. Endless takes trying to coach a perfect performance followed by a lot of fix it in post. Yes, AI can and does create a lot of work to fixing things.
Finally, I believe AI empowers you by making it easier and cheaper to create content, whether it's for a movie or video game. Smaller teams with smaller budgets will be able to bring bigger projects to life with fewer limitations. AI will become an indispensable tool for all artists, which is why Autodesk has been researching and developing AI tools for more than a decade.
Six years ago, we added our first machine learning tools to Autodesk Flame, like Flame's ML Z-Depth Generator, which lets studios like MangoFx isolate an actor and extract depth contours. Here's a cool example where they cast a shadow of a 3D alien onto a person delivering a pizza. MangoFx regularly uses Flame's ML tools on shows like Severance and Pachinko to streamline complex tasks like morphing frames. The founder, Sean Finley says that it cuts down on the guesswork, helping them to get cleaner results in minutes and freeing the team to focus more on creativity. That's creative abundance with the artist in control.
The pace of innovation in AI is accelerating, which is why we are adding more and more AI tools to the products you use every day, so you don't get left behind, like MotionMaker, the new AI tool in Maya that Mike talked about earlier. It's already helping incredible animators like Eddie Chew, the owner of Griffin Animation Studios, to do the work they need to do. They did all this in roughly 5 weeks. That's 1/3 of the time it would normally take.
We are committed to building AI tools like MotionMaker to help you get more out of the products that you use every day. We know you will be expected to do more for less. It's just how the industry works. Autodesk's goal is to give you the means to do so using the best that AI can offer.
I talked about my belief that AI will help more artists tell more stories. Well, we want to make that future possible with Flow Studio. Originally developed by Wonder Dynamics, Flow Studio is designed to be an easy-to-use and accessible AI platform for 3D animation and visual effects for newcomers and industry veterans alike. Wonder Dynamics' approach to developing AI is very similar to Autodesk's: building tools that artists can control and direct.
Wonder Dynamics was founded by visual effects supervisor and filmmaker, Nikola Todorovic, and actor and producer, Tye Sheridan, who you will meet in a few minutes. They dream of making their own sci-fi movies and saw firsthand just how hard it is to do limited by budgets and technology, but they never gave up on their dreams. And so Flow Studio was born. Take a look.
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I wish I could dance like that. One of Flow Studio's core capabilities is AI motion capture, and it won't be capturing me anytime soon. You upload a video with an actor. Select a 3D character and automatically apply that character to the actor. And Flow Studio integrates it with hand, face and body tracking. No mocap suit and no green screen. Anyone can do it, even me. It's easy for nonexperts who want to get into 3D and useful for experts who want to quickly previs of a shot.
What I like most about Flow Studio though, is that it is AI that's editable, directable and controllable. You can export selected project elements like clean plates, camera tracks and alpha masks to Nuke or export a 3DC to Maya, Blender or Unreal. You get to control every little detail. Just like Voxel Studio, who built a pipeline with Flow Studio and Maya. Voxel faced real pressure when Superman and Lois returned to production after the strikes. The final season needed high-end visuals on a tighter schedule and smaller budget. We've all heard that before. Here's how they pressed forward.
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Flow Studio, great work, isn't it? Flow Studio helped Voxel deliver the shots on time and on budget. Maya gave them the quality the client demanded. And together, they were unbeatable. But Flow isn't just for studios. It's for anyone aiming for cinematic results without a big budget or a large technical team, like emerging filmmakers and content creators. Many are already exploring what it can do, like Giacomo, a 3D artist from Italy who used Flow Studio with Maya at a school called BigRock to turn a basketball player into a robot.
Or Farhad and Faraz from Bad Decision Studio. They use Flow Studio for storyboarding. They shot a fight scene on an iPhone, uploaded it into Flow Studio to generate mocap data and brought it into Unreal Engine to generate the previs of the cinematic short called Haruki.
Or Mike, better known as AI Video School on YouTube. He's passionate about making good movies but has no visual effects background. Flow Studio opened a whole new world of storytelling for him.
I love seeing what the creator economy can do with Flow Studio. Earlier, Mike spoke about an era of creative abundance, and we don't want that abundance just to be reserved for those with big budgets because storytelling should not be gatekept. So today, we're doing something about it. You can create stunning visual effects with AI you control for free with Flow Studio. Yes. We're introducing new lower-cost pricing for Flow, including a free tier. So whether you're starting out with a story in your head and the phone in your hand or you're an indie filmmaker trying to get a pitch ready, Flow Studio is a great way for you to get your stories out there. Our free pricing is actually a statement of belief that creativity belongs to everyone, that the next great story could come from anywhere and that AI, when built right, can help you tell it.
Every time I come to SIGGRAPH, and I won't say how many years that is, it's been a lot, I'm reminded that we are part of a wonderful industry, a community of creatives and risk-takers and dreamers. You have the skills, you have the imagination. And with AI, you will have tools to break down the limits on your imagination and the stories you want to tell. I can't wait to see what you create.
Thank you. And up next, we have an amazing group of writers, directors, artists and filmmakers. They're here to share their perspectives on AI and how AI is reshaping the way they tell stories. So please join me in welcoming to the stage your moderator, award-winning author and journalist, Carolyn Giardina. Thank you.
Thank you, Maurice. I have actually known Maurice for many years, during which time we have had countless conversations about the impact of technology on storytelling and Autodesk's support of the creative process. Today, we're at a critical inflection point and at an important SIGGRAPH, and I am thrilled to be here to help examine the next stage in this journey.
Our first speaker is Nikola Todorovic, Co-Founder of Wonder Dynamics, an Autodesk company since 2024. An entrepreneur, visual effect supervisor and award-winning filmmaker, Nikola spent most of his career working at the intersection of film and technology. This led him to dream up Wonder Dynamics and ultimately create what is now Autodesk Flow Studio with fellow Co-Founder, Tye Sheridan.
And I'd like to introduce, in addition to his visionary work at Wonder Dynamics, Tye Sheridan, our next speaker, has enjoyed an impressive career as an actor and producer. He started in Steven Spielberg's Ready Player One and has worked with directors ranging from Paul Schrader to George Clooney.
And I'd like to introduce our special guest, acclaimed writer, producer and director, David S. Goyer. His breakthrough came in 1998 with Dark City and Blade. He's also known for collaborating with Christopher Nolan, writing the screenplay for Man of Steel and co-writing on the Dark Knight Trilogy. In the realm of video games, he contributed the story for Call of Duty: Black Ops and various sequels. Presently, Goyer is serving as executive producer and showrunner -- he executive produced Murderbot for Apple TV and co-wrote The Pilot, and serves as executive producer for Netflix' Sandman. In film, your upcoming work with your production company, Phantom Four Films, is an announced reimagining of The Blob. And recently, Goyer created and serves as Executive Creative Director for the blockchain franchise, Emergence, built on the Incention and Story platforms.
So now that we've learned about the latest advances in Autodesk Flow Studio, let's delve into what AI tools such as these for storytelling and storytellers. With AI, we are at an inflection point in entertainment where creators are being asked to do more, faster and with fewer resources. But alongside these pressures, these new tools are emerging that can unlock entirely new forms of storytelling. So for the group, let's start. With this in mind, what excites you the most about this potential? And what are the areas that you feel needs attention?
I think for me, the most exciting thing is kind of the reason why Tye and I started this in the first place was I think the barrier of entry always in our industry has been quite great. I always call it kind of you need permission from someone to tell a story. And I think this AI boom and revolution is really opening kind of what I call permissionless storytelling. Whether you need to be in Los Angeles, a known producer, get some funding, it's quite hard to get your project green list. So to me, that's really exciting.
And then also on top of that, I think what's really exciting, I think we're going to see more risk being taken in some of the stories. Unfortunately, if you have films, especially my favorite genre, which David knows really well, sci-fi, usually, those budgets are so high and unfortunately, forces studios to be a bit more conservative when they're making films because they need an 8-year-old and a 50-year-old to be able to enjoy it. So I'm excited about seeing this indie movement going in genres they haven't been before.
I think it also seems like the perfect time in the industry where the distribution landscape has changed so much over the past 10 years. And now what theatrical box office was 10 years ago is not really the same, right? So people are consuming content at home. I think the economics are a lot different in our industry. It forces studios to be, as Nikola said, maybe a bit more conservative. Also, they can't spend as much on certain projects. So I think where we can find places to alleviate pain points and help us produce the same films for faster or cheaper with the same artistic integrity behind it and with the same outcome, that's really what is needed in the industry. So for me, I feel like it serves that purpose. There's a huge opportunity there with these tools.
Yes. I'm thinking of the time, at least with respect to film, when we switched from film to digital. And the first time I sat in on like a digital intermediate or something like that and just jaw dropping at how we could change things so quickly, the look of things. And so I'm really just excited about, I think, the iterative potential for what this can mean and also the ability to eliminate or automate a lot of the drudge work so that, at least in the visual effects field, you can have artists being artists and not just doing rotoscoping or wire removal or something like that.
From film to TV to your games work, how has your approach to storytelling changed with the evolution of technology?
I mean, certainly, because I primarily work in science fiction, so the cost has come down significantly. I think almost anything is possible now. So that's exciting. We could not have made something like Foundation or Sandman, I think, even 20 years ago. It would have been just prohibitively expensive. And all of these tools, including what you guys have developed with Flow, they're going to bring those costs down significantly even more. So it's the kinds of storytelling, I think. And also just allowing, at least in terms of onset, putting more time -- I'm just thinking of how much time we've spent lighting green screens or things like that, how many manhours, and the fact that that's almost completely going away, that's exciting for me as a filmmaker.
And what about how it affects the fact that you're working in the different mediums, being able to tell stories across all of those mediums?
I think that the -- I mean I don't know that it affects working in -- I mean, I suppose it does. Certainly, when I was working in VR early on, that was so new that we were kind of making it up as we went along. And the same is the case with Emergence, which I built with Incention and Story. That's an entirely new kind of storytelling that is utilizing the blockchain and utilizing AI in certain components, which we can talk about later. I think what's exciting about that is we're experimenting with these forms of storytelling, and it's not entirely clear what the use cases are going to be from them. So we're sort of very early days in that right now.
Well, right now, we're going to jump into how AI is supporting stories. And Tye and Nikola, what was the inspiration for developing what is now Autodesk Flow Studio?
It didn't happen overnight. I think it was years of just us being really curious guys. We've got into the industry at a pretty early age. I did, for sure. And I think I was always amazed by the industry, amazed by what people could come together and create together. And so many people could pour blood, sweat and tears into a story and then that story would reach out and touch millions of people all over the earth. That, I became enamored with. And when Nikola and I met, I think we both had that love for storytelling and had always wanted to make our own films. And so when we met, that was really kind of how our relationship started. We started kind of coming up with ideas for films to make. And then we realized all these ideas we were coming up with were going to cost $150 million. And who's going to give us $150 million? I'm not James Cameron.
So we thought, well, what technologies can we lean into to help us kind of relieve the cost. So really, that's how we got into technology. We started looking at technology as a means to an end to help us make those films that we had always wanted to make. And I think somewhere along the way, the research that we stumbled upon, we realized that it was much bigger than just us, that there were so many people out there, artists, filmmakers, idea people, who had all the ideas. They just either didn't have the connection to the industry, they didn't have the resources. And when we first started building what's now called Flow Studio, selfishly, we were building it for ourselves using our own films. And then we realized this is bigger than us. And we wanted to share it with artists and other people like us. And that was kind of our journey and the inspiration for it all.
It's clearly very personal to both of you.
Yes. You could say that, for sure.
And today, they just announced the new pricing. Tell us a little bit about that.
Yes, that was really important for us. We started our partnership with Autodesk about a year before acquisition. And when you're a startup, you kind of have a choice of are you going to raise a lot of money and kind of really race to become a big number on paper or run lean. We always believed in running lean. And one of the sacrifices there is we have about 25 models in some of the solutions we have, and it's not cheap to run it on the cloud. So Autodesk really, when we first met the team, they really believed in our vision. And one other thing was how do we make this accessible to everyone.
So besides introducing the free tier, which I was really excited about, we also lowered the pricing of one of our lower tiers for self-serving customers. So I think it goes alongside of, as you mentioned, being personal, both Tye and I come from small towns. I come from a really small country, and it took me many years to end up in Los Angeles in the first place, but breaking the industry after that as well. So I think I was one of those kids that was 12 years old and watching Video Copilot tutorials to learn visual effects because I wanted to be a filmmaker one day. And so because of things like this, you kind of find your spot in this industry. So as I said, to me, AI really is fighting that kind of barrier to entry in our industry. So we want to stay true to that mission. So really what Autodesk is doing on that is something I'm really personally excited about.
Well, the new pricing, it's a bold choice and clearly important to both of you.
Yes, absolutely.
It was really important. I think you've got to stay true to the mission. We started this because -- as I mentioned, we started early, we started about 2016. 2018, we really committed to that pivot. And we said to each other, "What's the worst thing that could happen?" And we said, "The worst thing that can happen, we can fail completely, but at least we're going to learn what the filmmaking of the future is going to be before the rest of the people." So we really kind of saw it as an opportunity, "Hey, let's explore what this really is going to look and what filmmaking is going to look like." And then I do really believe in that democratization of storytelling being extremely, extremely important. It shouldn't be tied to a location or economical status.
I think storytelling is -- it sounds naive, but I'm really big optimist long term of why technology exists in the first place. And traditionally, it's always helped us, right, tell stories easier, as you mentioned, from film to digital to streaming platforms. So we've seen the shift in distribution happen with the streaming platform, YouTubes over the world and social media. I think really the purpose of AI is to do that for production because production traditionally hasn't really went down that much. It's actually increased. So I don't think it's a sustainable business model. So this technology kind of comes -- AI in general, I think, comes really as a solution that our industry needs.
And Tye, as an actor and storyteller, for you, what excites you about AI and its potential for supporting performance and character development?
I mean when you save cost elsewhere, you can put more on the screen. Hence, so if that means more reversal time, longer production schedules -- there are things that I think people typically wouldn't think of that may be ancillary to the acting process, but it's really crucial on any film. So I remember asking a producer I was working with one time, I said, "What is the job of a producer?" It's like, "If you had to boil it down, like what does a producer do?"
Not in a mean away, right? You didn't ask him in a mean way, like, "What do you do?"
No, I just said -- I was like 18, 19 years old. I said, "You're a really amazing producer. Obviously, you have an incredible track record. Like, what does a producer do?" He said, "It's simple." He said, "A producer's job is to create the best environment to make films in." And I think we're always trying to figure that out. The world is constantly changing. The industry is constantly changing. Audiences are constantly changing. Taste for stories is constantly changing. And I think AI can really be a huge benefit in all that. Also, if it helps us actors to not have to wear these superhot, sweaty motion capture suits, I think that's a real advantage. But yes, I think it will have an impact in so many places that's not obvious, right, that will, yes, help us put more into the creative process. And that's my hope.
I think what we built, obviously, we were really sensitive -- both of us being artists ourselves, we were really sensitive to the creative process and the integrity of filmmaking. So we built tools that would still maintain that, that those things were still core to what we built. And the better filmmaker you are, the better storyteller you are, the better actor you are, the better outcome and result that you're going to have running through Flow Studio.
So I still think for us as a whole, in general, as an industry, it's really important that we educate ourselves on AI, everyone, from actors to filmmakers, to producers, writers, financiers, distributors, everyone should really come together and understand what it means for our industry, how it can be beneficial. And I think it's a completely new world. It is the Wild, Wild West right now, but keeping that creative process and the integrity intact is essential, it's crucial.
I'm just curious, you obviously started in 2018, a sci-fi film, Ready Player One. How do you think that experience would have been different had the tools that are available today been available at that time?
Yes, it's interesting. I mean the first things that come to mind are that film largely takes place in a completely animated world, in a virtual world called the oasis. And I think there were so many questions about what the oasis actually looks like. And it's very descriptive in the book that it's based on. But still, I remember in the early production process, sharing, there was constant concept dart going around. It's more like this, it's more like that. And the concept dart at the time, I'm assuming a lot of artists were making this concept dart, but imagine, if 90% of it was going in the wrong direction, it's a waste of time and it's a waste of effort whereas if you took the iterative process from, let's just say, generative tools to generate concepts, to understand what direction you are going in and then get artists to delve into that, I mean I think that's a way that it could be used.
I mean also, not everyone can afford performance capture systems, the Vicon motion capture system. So using image-based solutions like Flow Studio or something like that for the animation, I could see being very viable. Again, you wouldn't have to wear the sweaty motion capture suits. But yes, I'm sure it could be used in a variety of different ways. Those are just a couple of ways -- a couple of things that come to mind.
David, let's go back to what you started to talk about earlier. You were involved in development of Incention and experimenting with these tools. What did you learn from this experience about AI and where it adds value and what guardrails might be needed?
Well, first of all, I mean, I agree with Tye that there's a lot of -- on one side, you've got all these people saying AI is going to save the world and revolutionize the industry. And then you've got the doomsayers. And it's going to be somewhere in the middle. It's going to end -- and I think that the -- what's not helpful, particularly in our industry are the people that are just sticking their heads in the sand. So I completely agree with the idea of people educating themselves and using these tools and experimenting with these tools. There's a lot of misinformation even amongst the studios in terms of the capabilities of these tools.
I think with Incention and Emergence, what we were attempting to do was, if you look at how franchises are created, it's really from the top down, something you alluded to. And so a lot of these big franchises have either been created from or the IP was bought by these legacy companies that, in some cases, are 100 years old. And it's very hard to come up with -- to innovate and come up with new franchises sometimes from the top down. So we were looking at a way to also see if we could democratize the creation of these franchises.
And so in our case, I wrote a bible, and then we trained that bible on a large language model. And we had a bunch of artists do concept art that I worked with. And now people that engage with Emergence can use the model as sort of a copilot to create new characters and new stories within that universe. And then the long-term plan is to allow those creations through an editorial board to flow upstream and become canon and then allow the creators to monetize the part of their creation as we move into animation or live action or what have you. So it was a way to sort of -- if you think about fan fiction or how much fan fiction there is with Marvel or Star Wars, there's no way for the people working in the fan fiction world, some of who are hugely talented, there's no way for any of those ideas to ever flow upstream and become part of these kind of bigger franchises. And so we were trying to crack that and using AI as, I guess, a copilot to help with that.
It sounds like this could be a whole new area.
I think it will be. I mean lots of different people are sort of experimenting with this.
Let's talk about the potential of new creative tools and efficiencies that we've talked about with AI in your various roles. What is the impact so far are you finding as a writer?
As a writer? As a joke, we tried to have ChatGPT write a foundation script, and that didn't necessarily work very well. But it's helpful in terms of -- I'll give you a classic example. I wrote like a 3-page monologue for a character. And it was cool, but I knew it needed to be shorter. So I could just take my 3-page monologue and put it into one of the models and say, okay, give me 5 versions of this, 2 pages long. And it could kick them out whatever in 30 seconds. And they weren't perfect. Again, it was my words edited down, but it gave me -- I might have spent an hour rewriting that monologue. And now by tweaking this or that, I was able to do it in 2 minutes, something like that. That's incredibly helpful.
Or creating -- sometimes like on Foundation, we've got spaceships and this and that. And so can you suggest a pilot chatter. Just the stuff that you wouldn't put in the script, that you would put in a loop group or ADR, that's incredibly helpful. You need to edit it, you need to look it over, but that's incredibly helpful. I could see how it would be really helpful with localization as well. That's not specifically for writing, but all of these big streamers and studios need to localize their products, and I could see that being immensely helpful.
Well, my next question was about the potential as a producer, and it sounds like that's one of them.
I mean that's definitely one of them. But you were alluding to -- I mean, again, on Foundation, we've got a lot of situations where -- I mean, we have some actual sets. We've got sets that are 50% virtual, 50% real, and we've got sets that are 100% virtual. And it's hard for the actors to visualize, if they're in a completely virtual set, what it's going to look like or what the conditions will be like. And I think if they're just guessing or if the creators don't know what it's going to look like, then those performances aren't necessarily going to track. There's going to be something kind of unreal about it because the actors don't know what they're acting against. And so I think real-time visualization, for sure -- I was on a project where we spent over $2 million just rigging green screens. And the idea that that's something that we could eliminate and potentially have more shooting days for what have you, that's absolutely massive.
And then it sounds like that goes into also the impact on the director.
For sure. I'm really curious also -- I could see ways that it could go wrong, but I'm curious about the advent of AI and cameras, following, focusing and adjusting exposure. I could see how that could get very generic and create a lot of slop, but I could also see how that would be a really interesting tool as well. So that's something I'm interested in experimenting with.
What are the areas that you think need to be protected as we move into AI?
Well, obviously, one of them is copyright. I think with all of this technology hand in hand, there needs to be -- this is going to be -- not just for film, but I think the AI revolution is going to be like the industrial revolution times 10. I mean it's going to change everything in our world, and it's going to change everything in our world very, very quickly. And there's going to be amazing ways that's going to be beneficial, and there's going to be a lot of unintended consequences as well. So I think the idea of education, of training, of allowing people who've spent 20 years doing a craft in one way and then training them to -- I look at the way, frankly, the camera crews have adapted to digital. I mean that's something that you're going to, I think, start to see in all the division of labor within film.
Something we were talking about upstairs before was the impact on characters and development of characters. What are your thoughts in this area?
On AI creating characters?
For assisting you in creating character.
Assisting in creating characters. Look, right now, I will say this, we started using -- I think my supervisor for Foundation is somewhere in the audience, Chris. But we started using, for instance, mid-journey, I think while we were shooting Season 2 of Foundation. And we would employ a ton of concept artists, whom I love. But we started also very early on putting prompts in the mid-journey. And so two things would happen. One is Chris and I were able to sort of iterate very, very, very quickly and then give some of those images to the concept artists. And so at least they weren't -- we were kind of slightly narrowing down the goal.
But the other thing that would happen that I thought was really interesting is the mistakes. So as we're prompting it, there's all these unintended mistakes that would come out of these. But some of them were amazing mistakes, and there are things that in a million years, we never would have thought of. And that sparked a lot of creativity as well. So there's a ton of ways that it can be immensely helpful. I mean everyone is using it right now, creating look-books and creating reels and cloning voices.
It's interesting you say that because in the early days, we were experimenting with physically plausible engines and, for instance, giving a character like a slightly shorter leg so that they have a limp just naturally, to see like what you could generate -- what kind of character either flaws or just traits you could generate in that regard. It was a pretty interesting.
Yes, my kids do that on Roblox. It's like how can we mess with the physics, just tweak the physics 5%. I'm really curious, one of the things in science fiction is it's really, really expensive and really hard if you are filming a scene like on a planet that has not zero gravity, but like 1/6 the gravity like the moon or half the gravity. And I'm really interested in seeing what AI can do in terms of that because that's really going to change the game as well. And I suspect we'll see a lot of that with AI and video games. So like imagine you're playing Helldivers and you go to a new planet that has half the gravity of Earth and now the physics of everything have completely changed and the way that your weapons works has completely changed. And that's something that I think we're really on the cusp of right now, with AI sort of generating these worlds and these maps.
To pick a past project here, let's use Blade as an example. Is there something that you would like to have been able to do at the time, but maybe you were limited by time or by budget?
Yes. Well, famously, there was an entirely different ending that we were going to do with the character Deacon Frost turning into a blood god. And we spent a couple of million dollars with a VFX company that has since gone out of business, but they could not crack it because they couldn't crack the physics of it. And he was sort of turning into this sort of living whirlwind of blood that could also animate. And we had to completely abandon it and just go for something -- the technology just didn't exist to do that back then. We were foolhardy in sort of attempting it. So I think if we had the tools that we had now, we probably would have succeeded in pulling off that ending. Now the question is whether or not it would have been as good, I don't know, because the ending that we did have for the first Blade film was just something we pulled out of our ass at the last minute.
And it worked. Could you tell us anything that you're currently working on and if you're incorporating these tools at this time?
It hasn't been announced yet, but I'm working on a sort of horror/science fiction project in the kind of what they call an analog horror vein. And we're talking about potentially shooting it with iPhones or Prosumer cameras. And I'm curious to see if we -- because there are some nonhuman characters in it as well, but if we can be using motion capture just using AI to do it, I'm really curious to see how we can -- because that's a very low-fi looking project, deliberately so. But I'm curious to see to the extent that we can employ the latest technology to make it look low-fi as opposed to looking hi-fi. But I can't -- it hasn't been announced yet.
Maybe at SIGGRAPH 2026. And then what about the team? Do you expect to keep your current workflows? Or do you anticipate roles changing?
I mean, look, again, I go back to when we transferred from film to digital, the idea of a digital intermediate or a DI technician was not something that existed. And now that person is like a critical member of the team. I think if you're dealing with virtual environments and you're previewing in real time what those virtual environments are for the cast and the crew, I mean that's something that I think is almost increasingly -- usually, that's like a specialist that just comes in for different -- if you're shooting something on the equivalent of the volume or something like that, somebody comes in just for that sequence, but I could imagine that being a dedicated sort of component of the crew moving forward. I'm also curious to see to the extent that will we need as many lighting technicians. I think you'll see a lot more work being done in prep than we are right now. I think a lot of that a lot of that will be shifting over. But I don't know. I mean, what do you guys think?
Well, for all of you, I mean, obviously, there's a lot of fear out there right now. What advice would you give to someone working in the business right now who is worried about being replaced?
Yes. I think there's obviously a lot of fear on it, but visual effects industry has always kind of been the first forefront of kind of change in technology, right? As I said, we spoke a lot to people when we started developing this early days, and it was really hard to explain to people what is going on. And I think now everybody is more aware. My advice always would be don't kind of try to put your head in the sand and hope this thing is going to go away and the industry will remain as it is. I think it's a wrong approach. But I always advise people it shifting doesn't mean that your titles will shift. There are certain roles. Some of the roles in VFX especially have been sort of shaped because of the tools you used, right? And so that will change quite drastically.
But I think more importantly, my advice always would be, don't be scared to go in a field that you don't understand in a sense like always tell artists, and we had this sort of our artists in our companies, is read a research paper. Even if you don't understand the math and physics behind it, it will give you some ideas of how you can combine a couple of maybe open source solutions with some commercial tools and then build on top of that, right? So I think because the industry is shaping -- is changing, I think it's very important that we also build it internally inside of our film industry because certain use cases are very different on the tools that we're seeing, right? There's a really big difference if you're building generative models with a kind of goal of making tools for social media versus with the goal if you're making tools for our industry.
Our industry is very iterative in nature. It's all about the details and fine-tuning and where you want your camera to end by millimeter. So much, much different than, for instance, turnaround in social media where you're not going to nitpick the pixels as much, right, because your turnaround time is 1 day versus in film where you're going to work on it and you kind of have to know when to stop when something looks good. So I would say curiosity is really important, but I think it's really important we build it internally, inside of our industry, so then we can shape it how we really want to see it long term. So I guess, fight the fear because we've seen the change in the industry many times. And I think sometimes the hype can be overwhelming and the clickbaits will get you and you're going to think it's the end of the world. But honestly, to me, really it's a means to an end, as Tye said. We're all trying to tell better stories. How we got there will change with time.
And one thing I always say is we really don't know what that new -- the baseline has changed, right? The baseline has really changed. But to me, what's really exciting is the ceiling is also going to change. We just don't know what that is. But I'm a firm believer in that we recognize laziness. Let's say the prompts get really well, the text in video gets perfect, and we can make a film in 5 minutes. If we know it took 5 minutes, we're not going to pay for it or like it, right? We're going to want something that's much harder. In my mind, that's why we like art. We like art because it's quite difficult and you're impressed by how do they do that. In Foundation, how did David pull that episode, right? Because it was really difficult, and I wouldn't know how to do that, right? So you respect that, and that's what really attracts us to watch films.
So we just don't know what that new ceiling is. We know the baseline is changing because of these tools. But I think if you look at it pessimistically, you just think, okay, my industry is going to become easy and maybe that's the end of it. No, I think we're just going to push it forward, just like you can't explain to someone 50 years ago how Avatar was made. They're not going to understand, but they're watching completely, right? So that's what I'm excited about. We'll see what that new thing is.
I don't think it's that the fear is completely unwarranted. I think that it's warranted in a lot of cases, like as you say, fear of someone who doesn't know your industry, coming in and building tools for your industry, but they don't know your process.
I think that's key, that this change needs to be driven by the film industry, the creative industry, and not necessarily by the tech industry because in a lot of -- we were talking about this in the green room. A lot of these products that are being built are amazing products, but people that are building them don't really know anything about film or storytelling necessarily.
I think they go hand in hand, right? Like, the artists need the technologists and the technologists need the artists. And it's educational. It's a two-way street. We have to be communicating with the other side. I think that was probably the most interesting aspect to the whole experience of building Wonder Dynamics is really combining multiple worlds and multiple industries inside one house, inside of one product. And we hired a lot of junior machine learning engineers who didn't know any film terminology. And as I was telling you guys, we were first looking at data sets of motion, but all these data sets, they had camera angles from the top corners of each room. And we knew that wasn't going to work for film because when's the last time you saw that shot in a movie, never, unless it's like an insert of a security camera footage or something like that. So we encourage them to watch films to understand a close-up, a medium shot, a wide shot, a cowboy, a two-shot to understand what films are made of.
And so we had artists and we had machine learning engineers, and we got to see that communication within our own company, and we really encouraged it for one side to learn about the other, to be communicating with the other side. And I think what we saw in the film industry during strikes with SAG and with WGA, I think people were making conclusions without having all the necessary information to make the basis for that conclusion. And I think that's the worst thing we can do, as you say, sticking our head in the sand and just ringing the alarm bells is not going to do any good.
I think we have to stop and, one, look at the state of our industry; but two, look at the state of these tools, look at the research, what's coming. If you don't understand it, ask someone who knows, they'll be happy to learn about your industry. You could see something about the film industry and filmmaking. And like I said, it's a two-way street. And I think that in terms of the culture, in terms of what we build, the tools that we build, it has to be means, it has to be the foundation, the track that we lay. So I think we've always felt that and want to encourage people in the industry, I guess, both in technology and the film industry, to think that way. It's essential.
What sort of feedback have you been getting so far? And how is it driving your thoughts about where your tools fit in either to new workflows or traditional workflows?
Yes. I think for us, since we started early, we knew there's going to be this hype in AI space. So we kind of tried to be really honest with ourselves and work with artists and realized, "Okay, if AI gets me about 60%, 70% there, let's say, automated, how do I really not turn into a black box," because that's my biggest frustration right now with a lot of tools. There's not a lot of editability. But it makes sense. The research went generative and now we're trying to figure out how to edit it. So for us, it was always, "Let's not try to disrupt the full pipeline. Let's build something that adds in the pipeline."
So for us, when we first started, we did this big project with the Russo Brothers, and we've hired a lot of artists and we really asked them, "Okay, if you get 60% there with AI, what data do you need to really push the shot? Just tell us what passes you need. You need your mocap, you need your camera track, you need your point cloud, alpha mask, et cetera. So we really approach it from a standpoint of, "Okay, I have AI, but then I'm going to go in my DCC of choice." That's whether Maya, Blender or other tools where I can really edit and move the camera or animation, correct it and clean it up in a space.
I'm a big believer in that combination in 3D space and 2D space. It's really important because you can't prompt everything. You can't prompt performance. You can't really completely prompt the camera move, not to a desired shot that you want. You can prompt a frame or a little bit of a movement, but usually, directors will sometimes change their mind on past 20 and want to change where the character is looking or maybe move a leg a little bit this way, maybe move a camera this way, so that particular choices and finding editability is really important for us. So we approached it with a sense of, "Okay, AI is not completely there yet. So let it work in that pipeline. These problems will get solved and research is getting better." But I'm a big believer in multimodality. You can prompt something, you can have video sources for something. And then you stick to kind of traditional 3D or reinvent how you're moving things in 3D space. So that's sort of how we approach the problem.
Last year, you made a very big decision with the company. What made you feel that Autodesk was the right partner?
A couple of things. I think the vision is really aligned. Diana, who runs media and entertainment inside of Autodesk, we spent a year working with them. So first of all, timing is really important, working with good people. This is our baby. We're very protective of it. But also, I think the vision really aligned and they really gave us full trust and control of the road map, which is rare. For a start-up, you always have this fear where you go in a global company that your vision is going to get killed, and they really kind of gave us so much trust and believed in our vision and we pushed it.
And the opposite of that, obviously, with this announcement of free, that was important for us to go in that direction. And then also the knowledge. Obviously, Autodesk with Maya and other tools have been leading the industry for decades. So for us, we knew we were lacking a little bit of knowledge, especially in that 3D space, that we wanted to go forward.
I think we also hadn't had, how many years, 20, 30 years of experience of delivering software to the industry that we were hoping to have an impact on. And I think that was obviously their legacy roots within the industry. It was something that was really beneficial for getting a tool like this out there in the hands of artists and having big companies trust the tools that we built.
Also, they promised us we're going to meet David, and they said, I'll get to direct one episode of Foundation.
That's right. I remember that.
That was in the contract.
You're a liar, right?
Yes. But it's also the ethos. Everything that we believe in it, kind of felt like one family. And the ethos of what we wanted to build and the spirit and the essence of why we built it, it felt very aligned in that way. And yes, I think the coolest thing ever was when we first started talking about a partnership, when we pitched them our 5-year road map, to hear like, "That's great. We want to support that," and that was all that we could ask for. So yes, it's been a great partnership and all the stars have aligned.
So outside of Hollywood, the creator economy is obviously global. David, what do you see as the -- are there unique opportunities or unique risks that artists around the world face?
Yes. I mean look, the opportunities are almost the same as the risk. And what I mean by that is there is a tendency sometimes with these new technologies to get lazy and just to say, "Oh, we can automate this now. We can have AI generate characters from old cloth or stories from old cloth or episodes from old cloth," and I think what you're going to get there, you're already seeing it, is a lot of slop. And I think we'll reach a period where there's a lot of slop being created and then the pendulum is going to swing the other way because my kids, I've got 3 boys, they can already tell whether something is AI generated, even video, the video of the rabbits on the trampoline. My 11-year-old was like, "Oh, yes, that's AI." I mean he could just tell immediately.
So people that are digital natives, they're not necessarily going to be fooled by that. So that's one of the perils. And then the opportunity is, okay, I'm interested in people taking tools like yours and then breaking them and using them for something that you hadn't necessarily thought of because that's where the innovation is going to come from. And that's where I think we've seen a lot of innovation even in going from film to digital just throughout the decades.
That was essentially our story because we when we first got into AI, we were looking at research papers from the field of robotics and autonomy for self-driving cars and all of these image perception models is research that's just been done for 20, 30 years. And it wasn't intended to be applied to the film industry, but it could be because what is film? 24 images a second. And people always ask us, "Why did you guys start the company? What was the lightbulb moment?" I don't really say there was a lightbulb moment. But if there was, that was kind of it, looking at that research and realizing that it was going to become the future of our industry. And I think that's really what kind of gave us the courage to take that leap into this crazy new world.
And then as we look ahead, David, why don't we start with you, what advice would you give seasoned professionals and emerging creators about embracing AI, not just as a tool but as a collaborator in the process?
You said it earlier, it's not going away. It's here. Immerse yourself in it, learn about it. The more you learn, the more you can manipulate it, use it as another tool, the more you can drive the movements. So I would just say, like my kids now, it's just like any AI embedded program, just use it, experiment with it, create a facility for it, have become second nature because it's absolutely -- but that is the thing that's exciting. When I was coming up, even making a tiny movie, right, indie movie, would cost $0.5 million or $1 million. But with the tools that we have now, you could absolutely do a feature for $60,000, $20,000. That just didn't exist when we were coming up. Experiment, experiment and education.
I think if you look at the human's relationship with any tool, whether that be a vehicle or a computer or a guitar, when they know that thing super well inside and out, they're able to make something truly unique. And I think that these AI tools, they're really no different than a camera or a sound equipment or an animation engine. I think the better you know those tools, the more you can manipulate them, the more you can stand out, right? And I think like why we love certain filmmakers or why we love certain artists is because they have a unique voice.
Point of view.
And a point of view. And I think the closer you are to those tools, the better you understand them, the more you can manipulate and control your own point of view. And I think that's one and the same. You can look back through the history of time to infinity, and that's true. And I think it's just as true today with these tools.
If you look at the adoption of drone use in filmmaking, I mean, I'm old. When I started, if you wanted to do aerial shots, you had to use helicopters. And they were cumbersome and they were expensive, they're dangerous and there are only so many good helicopter operators. And we use drones all the time now. And we were shooting last year with drones in a sewer tunnel chasing the characters down the sewer tunnel with these tiny, tiny drones. And that's just stuff that wouldn't even have been possible 3 years ago. And it is another tool that allows you to tell a different kind of story.
And to that end, if you were starting today, what's the first type of story you'd want to tell?
Wow, the first type of story. I don't know. Again, I'm really interested in telling a story in an environment with a different kind of gravity. I mean that would be wild, doing the whole show set on the moon and not just having the actors walk really slowly or filming 90 frames per second or something like that. I think that would be cool.
It really comes down to the limitations, right? There are so many times you put something on a paper and then you know you cannot do it. You can't physically do it. You cannot do it maybe because of the budget. I come from the indie space and it's always so frustrated like you have to stay away from CGI, you have to stay away from visual effects because you can't afford it. And then you have to always box yourself in based on locations you can afford, based on what you can shoot, how many shooting days, et cetera. So to me, that's the whole point of AI is like how do we get from imagination to screen without sacrificing a lot of things or changing a lot of things.
There's a location, which I've done before, that you can't fit 200 people in. You can only -- I shot in a location once on a big project, the crew, we skimmed it down to 12 people. That was the only way we could do it, which was fascinating. But I like the technological solve for things like that.
Absolutely. And as you mentioned earlier, to me, what's exciting is film is very specific because you don't get much time to practice, right? How many films you can make in your lifetime, 10, 15, if you're lucky, right? I mean I know some of the greatest filmmakers that still get so nervous before shooting a film just because it's still rare. It's still such an event for you to do it. And just like everything, I think with these kind of tools and generative tools, you get to practice a lot. And then you get to discover how do I make an arc in this film? How do I frame this? How do I tell this story? How do I build the characters?
My biggest concern with generative tools is I really do hope we add to the process versus that we're switching into synthetic actors, for instance. I hope we are not going in a future where we're just having actors sitting at home and licensing their likeness and then we're just watching films. I always ask people, "Do you think in 5 years, top 3 box office films will be all synthetic actors?" And it's a hard question to ask.
I think they're going to try it and you're going to get an amount of slop.
Yes. You're going to get a lot of things. But to me, I hope we are not.
I think that would be a good thing. Let's get the slop out of the way, make people hate synthetic actors, the real stuff.
Earlier in this session, we were reminded of Leonardo da Vinci. Do you think these tools will help to identify new voices?
Absolutely. I'm sure they will.
Absolutely. I think the whole point is to turn it into a global, to discover new talent, to me, at least. I mean that's something for me that's -- we're still very much tied to a certain location in the world where you have to be to have these opportunities. Obviously, coming from -- I was born in Bosnia, lived in Croatia and Serbia until I was 20, and then I moved to U.S. to pursue a film career. But before that, it was just a pipe dream.
Explaining someone that you -- unfortunately, being kind of in a time and area in the world where there was quite a bit of conflict, trying to tell someone you have a dream of making film just seemed not something realistic at all, right?
And so I'm a big believer that the whole -- for me, the whole point of this revolution is that. It's really how do we discover these voices. And we don't know where next Cameron or Steven Spielberg are coming from. But if you really set that baseline to be -- and that's the beauty of it. It's so new. Everybody is starting kind of from the new starting point. So then you'll get to -- we don't know if these kids that are 5, 6 years old now today are playing with it, they're able to produce things. What will they be able to do in their 2025? We just can't imagine yet. And that to me is exciting.
I think also Hollywood prides itself on telling global stories. But the question is, how authentic are they? I mean, are they really -- to someone living on the other side of the globe, this story is about their culture. They feel it's honest. For me, I think the best art is when it's honest, when it's pure, when it's authentic. And I think to have kids born in any crevice of the world, to have the ability to go out and make something and be seen, is such an exciting dream to envision.
I mean I think that's also why -- as Nikola said, we both come from really small towns. When I was a kid, I didn't even know that you could make films for a living. I didn't even know that was like a possibility. I knew people made films, but it never clicked until I just happened to be on a film set and see it. And I was enamored by it, and I've never stopped since. I've been chasing that miracle ever since. But yes, the idea that we can educate audiences around the world through more authentic stories around the world that are pure from those artist voices directly, I think, is really, really exciting. And I want to see that vision in my lifetime.
Well, and this is the last comment and question before we wrap this up, as we look ahead, I think one thing we all agree that's so important right now is education, experiment, try these tools, familiarize yourself with these tools. Are there other comments you'd want to make?
I think that, on one hand, you've got the dream that these technologies are going to lower production costs. And that's definitely something that I think needs to happen and probably will happen. But if you look at the movies, particularly even this year, the theatrical movies that are breaking through, they tend to be the ones that are unique or quirky, whether it be Sinners or what Danny Boyle did with 28 Years Later or even Gunn's Superman, which was unashamedly nerdy and odd and kind of comic book-y. And I think that people are still going to create, crave stories that feel unique and quirky and different and authentic. And that's something that technology can't produce.
There always has to be the human interface in there, the author, guiding the machine. And so that's why I'm also optimistic about it. And I think that it is going to be the Wild West, and it's going to take a while for things to shake out. But I would just encourage people, every new product that comes out, just experiment with it and try to break it.
Create happy accidents.
Yes.
Awesome. Okay. Before we wrap, just a reminder that Autodesk has a stand in the exhibition hall, and you can check out Autodesk Flow Studio and learn more about the new pricing. And there's also a QR code. Please join me in thanking David, Nikola and Tye.
Thank you.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Autodesk — SIGGRAPH 2025
Autodesk — SIGGRAPH 2025
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Autodesk positioniert sich als Technologie‑Enabler für Kreativ‑Industrien: KI (Künstliche Intelligenz) soll Produktivität steigern, kreative Arbeit demokratisieren und Gestaltung (Schönheit) mit technischer Funktion verbinden.
- Takeaway: Fokus auf anwendbare Tools und Forschung — MotionMaker in Maya und Flow Studio sollen Künstlern mehr Zeit für Kreativität geben und kleinere Teams befähigen, anspruchsvolle Inhalte zu produzieren.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Produkte: MotionMaker ist in Maya integriert; Flow Studio bietet KI‑basiertes Motion‑Capture aus Video, Hand/Face‑Tracking und Export zu Maya/Blender/Unreal; neues Free‑Tier und günstigere Einsteigerpreise.
- Forschung: Formales AI‑Lab seit 2018, Project Bernini erwähnt; breite Publikationsbasis (AI für CAD) als technologisches Fundament und Differenzierer.
- Einsatzfälle: Praxisbeispiele: KI‑optimierte Siedlungsplanung und modulare Fertigung (West Oakland, Prefab) sowie Produktionsbeschleunigung in Animation und VFX.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Verfügbarkeit: MotionMaker ist jetzt in Maya erhältlich; Flow Studio kommt mit einem Free‑Tier und gesenkten Preisstufen für Einsteiger.
- Pipeline: Betonung auf Editierbarkeit und Integration — Flow erlaubt Export von Cleanplates, Camera‑Tracks und Alpha‑Masks, zielt damit auf echte VFX/3D‑Workflows, nicht nur Black‑box‑Generierung.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Risiken: Diskussion über Urheberrecht, synthetische Darsteller und mögliche Arbeitsplatzverschiebungen; Forderung nach Guardrails und Umschulungsmaßnahmen.
- Adoption: Forderung, Tools industriegetrieben zu entwickeln; Bedarf an Education, enger Zusammenarbeit von Artists und ML‑Ingenieuren sowie an realen Datensätzen.
- Produktfragen: Kritikpunkte: Editierbarkeit, Modell‑Fidelity (weniger «slop») und Einbettung in bestehende Pipelines wurden intensiv angesprochen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Die Präsentation bestätigt Autodesks Strategie, KI‑Funktionen direkt in professionelle Kreativ‑Workflows zu bringen. Kurzfristig ist der Umsatz‑Effekt unklar, aber mittelfristig stärkt das Portfolio die Marktstellung, erweitert das adressierbare Marktvolumen und reduziert Eintrittsbarrieren. Risiken: Akzeptanz, Rechtsfragen und Qualitätskontrolle.
Finanzdaten von Autodesk
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Basis
| Apr '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 7.507 7.507 |
18 %
18 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 665 665 |
11 %
11 %
9 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 6.842 6.842 |
19 %
19 %
91 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 3.093 3.093 |
12 %
12 %
41 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | 1.670 1.670 |
9 %
9 %
22 %
|
|
| EBITDA | 2.079 2.079 |
42 %
42 %
28 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 52 52 |
2 %
2 %
1 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 2.027 2.027 |
44 %
44 %
27 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 1.463 1.463 |
45 %
45 %
19 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
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Firmenprofil
Autodesk, Inc. beschäftigt sich mit der Entwicklung von Software und Dienstleistungen. Zu seinen Produkten gehören Autodesk 360 Cloud Services, AutoCAD Civil 3D und LT, 3Ds Max, Maya und Revit. Das Unternehmen bietet auch Entwicklungs- und Fertigungssoftware an, die Herstellern in der Automobil-, Transport-, Industriemaschinen-, Konsumgüter- und Bauproduktindustrie umfassende digitale Design-, Konstruktions- und Produktionslösungen zur Verfügung stellt, sowie digitale Medien und Unterhaltung, die aus Werkzeugen für digitale Bildhauerei, Modellierung, Animation, Effekte, Rendering und Compositing für Designvisualisierung, visuelle Effekte und Spieleproduktion besteht. Das Unternehmen wurde im April 1982 von John Walker gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in San Rafael, Kalifornien.
aktien.guide Basis
| Hauptsitz | USA |
| CEO | Dr. Anagnost |
| Mitarbeiter | 14.300 |
| Gegründet | 1982 |
| Webseite | www.autodesk.com |


