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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 78,58 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 10,82 Mrd. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 78,58 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 11,02 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 114,29 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 10,82 Mrd. $
Enterprise Value = 114,29 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 11,02 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
American Tower Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
29 Analysten haben eine American Tower Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
29 Analysten haben eine American Tower Prognose abgegeben:
Beta American Tower Events
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American Tower — Nareit REITweek: 2026 Investor Conference
1. Question Answer
All right. It looks like we're there. Live from the New York. It's NAREIT. Welcome, everybody. The tradition continues. We don't have 51 seasons like Saturday Night Live does, but American Tower and Raymond James and myself, we started doing these presentations at NAREIT when American Tower converted in 2012. So we were just doing the math -- we've been doing this basically 6, 14, 15...
14 years. 15th time, I think...
Exactly 15 times but actually the dirty little secret was, before you converted into a REIT, we were still coming to NAREIT. Before tower companies converted to REITs, but we couldn't get a room...
Don't tell me NAREIT, they're going to...
It's okay. But we would meet in the restaurant and say, REIT investors you need to get to know tower companies because they're coming and they're going to be big. And certainly, that's played out. You guys are some of the largest group of real estate companies that are out there in the NAREIT universe.
Today, Steve Vondran is joining us, CFO -- CEO sorry, of American Tower. I'm Rick Prentiss, by the way, sorry about that, head of TMT Research at Raymond James. My definition of TMT, telecom, satellites, media but more importantly, towers and digital infrastructure. So Steve, thanks for coming today.
Thanks for hosting us yet again, Rick.
You bet you. I want to start with -- on the 1Q call, you guys talked about how you're feeling this is the strongest strategic footing and set up, you've seen in a decade. You've been American Tower a long time, just like...
26 years.
Yes. So we've seen a lot.
Yes.
We've lived through this birth, boom, bust and now rebirth of the tower industry. What do you mean by the strongest strategic footing? And how do you square that with the stock performance?
Yes. Thanks, Rick We've been really focused for the past few years on taking risk out of the business. There have been some headwinds in the business in various areas. And so when I think about where we are today, from an operational perspective and with our customer base, we're on the strongest footing because we've taken some measures to pull risk out of the portfolio.
Our exposure to emerging markets is reduced. Part of that is because we divested in India. And part of it is we've changed our capital investment philosophy to direct more of our CapEx to our developed markets where it used to -- the majority of it used to go to the emerging markets. So by doing that, we're reducing our exposure in the emerging markets. We've also been through kind of a period of reset and repair in a lot of those markets where some of the weaker players have churned out. And so now the vast majority of our revenue in those markets is with the top 1 or 2 carriers in each market.
So we think we're largely through the churn events that have kept growth in those markets back over time and remove some of the uncertainty about the revenue stream. So that part of the portfolio is much stronger. Likewise, in the U.S., while, we don't like having churn from DISH, and we didn't like having churn from Sprint, those are 2 weaker players in the market that was a little bit more of a question mark. So now if you look at the U.S. revenues and the U.S. growth rates, it's underpinned by the 3 major carriers.
So from a quality of earnings perspective, we've made a number of moves to dramatically increase the safety, the reliability of those underlying cash flows. On the balance sheet, we've taken a number of steps on the balance sheet to shore that up as well. So where we sit today is we have the lowest leverage and the highest credit rating among all of our peers and less exposure to interest rate fluctuation than we've had in a long time.
So when I look at where we sit today, we have a very strong fundamental base better than we've had in over a decade in terms of not seeing negative shocks happen. And there are so many secular tailwinds that are going to promote growth in our business. And when I think about what's underlying our like kind of long-term growth algorithm that we've laid out, it's really based on mobile data consumption in the U.S. And mobile data consumption in the U.S. grew about 35% year-on-year last year according to CTIA, and it's expected to continue to grow at a pace that requires a doubling of network capacity by the end of the decade.
And so that provides a lot of tailwinds to our business to provide more service to our customers to get more bandwidth out to people. We also have things that could accelerate that because those projections are just current usage, downloading videos. And AI is not really factored into that. So to the extent that AI comes on devices in a way it's bandwidth intensive that can accelerate those demand trends. And 6G is just around the corner. I mean if you think about that, the standards are supposed to come out in 2029.
That means deployments are probably going to be in 2030, 2031. That's not that far away. So as we look toward the future, we see continued investment in the networks at a steady rate in the base case. We see a potential for acceleration for some of these other factors in it. And that's going to give us a lot of growth over the long term that will continue to drive this business on a more solid base. So when we think about that, that's the more solid fundamental footing.
But I also want to remind people we have CoreSite. We have a data center company that's not just a data center. It's a interconnection-rich, network dense environment that gives us another high-growth vehicle. It's growing double digits in the U.S. with phenomenal returns. So again, when I think about where we sit today versus where we've been in the past, it's a lower-risk business, has a lot of opportunities for upside. And that positions us well to create a lot of shareholder value in the future.
So help us square that with the stock performance. Obviously, interest rates are what they are and you can't control that.
Well, we're interest rate sensitive. There's a high inverse correlation on that. That's part of it. But there's been a lot of kind of short-term noise in the system. And I think people have to look past these short-term things, they're not material in the long term. And we -- another way we've kind of derisked the way we think about things is we churned DISH at 100%. So there shouldn't be an overhang from that. It's out of the numbers, it's out of the projections, everything that we're telling you guys would plan to do is ex DISH. Now we're still going to litigate. We're still going to try to collect our money from those guys, but that's just upside from everything that we've said that's out there.
So I think that there's been some short-term noise that's kind of weighed on the sector. It's that satellites and the other stuff, I'm sure you're going to ask about a couple of these, so I'll just tee them up for you. But I think that, that short-term noise has really created some overhangs. And I hope that we're going to move past that and see past that. When you think about the dislocation between public and private multiples where private capital is valuing towers at a much higher multiple, I think they're looking past the short-term stuff.
And they're looking at it and saying, I don't care about this noise in the short term. I see 5G densification. I see AI, I see 6G, and they're looking at that long runway of growth ahead, and that's why their value is higher than the public multiples are. So hopefully, we're turning a corner on some of the short-term stuff.
It feels like we are. I mean, it really feels like the tone this week at NAREIT has been, oh, maybe we are finding the base here or maybe people are getting excited about where things could go. And I guess being a wireless tower company, the signal to noise ratio, signal to noise is the noise has been controlling it, maybe people are getting the signal better now.
I hope so. We're trying to get the message out.
Yes. Let's hit more of those because it definitely was a hot topic came up several times, but it feels like a shift is happening. Let's hit the satellite question.
Okay. My favorite topic, right?
I know.
So first, when it comes to satellites, we have a good perspective on what's going on there. We made an investment in AST SpaceMobile in the early days to get a board seat, which we still retain. So when we talk about what's happening in the satellite space, we're coming from a place of some knowledge here. There's absolutely nothing we see in that space that poses a risk to our business model or our carrier customers. It is a complementary technology.
It will supplement the networks, and there are some real positives for both our customers and towers that I'll touch on. When people express concern about towers being disintermediated by satellite, they're not seeing the physics of it. There's not enough bandwidth produced by the satellite networks to be able to replace towers to even lightly populated areas. The place it's going to be the most effective or where we don't even have towers. And if we do have a tower in the place it's that remote, it's certainly not going to be our top-performing tower.
So when we kind of looked at it and said, in all these possible scenarios, what's the risk? It's just de minimis. You won't even notice it if we did have an effect there. That doesn't mean we don't have to build towers in rural Montana and the Grand Canyon. Yes, I don't want to build those anyway. So from a risk perspective, I don't see it at all.
From an opportunity perspective, though, I think it could be huge. The first area of opportunity I think the satellites provide is for my customers. They're going to provide ubiquitous coverage in a way that they haven't been able to do it before. And that's going to enable new use cases. So if you think about some of the what-ifs that are out there, people talked about using the 5G networks to control drone telemetry or robotics and things like that.
You have to have a ubiquitous signal to do that. They haven't had that in the past. Satellite will give them that. So I think there are new use cases that can create new revenue streams from our customers that will spur investment, that will be good for us. The other thing that I think is going to happen in the satellite world is it's going to actually highlight the places where towers need to be built or where coverage needs to improve.
If you think back to 4G when carriers first built those networks, they had some holes in their networks, so they roamed on each other, and that was getting expensive paying each other for roaming. So we had -- we used to talk about roaming overbuilds in 4G. That was a driver of business for us. I think with satellites, you're going to see a similar phenomenon. There are places at my house, you cannot get a text message out. There's no signal. And no one's building it today. But once that satellite coverage is enabled, people are going to use it.
There'll be roaming being paid to the satellite guys, and I'm -- hopefully, I can convince all 3 carriers to build that neighborhood then...
I might have a site they could use?
They can use my rooftop. I'll make it work somehow. Zoning is going to be tough. But -- so when I look at it, I just look at this being a complementary technology, it's going to help my customers. It could enable some new tower builds. So for me, it's all opportunity. I don't see risk in it at all. And I'm glad to see some of it starting to shift a little bit here this week.
That's definitely been my sense as we came in beginning of this week, there was still the fear factor. And it feels like people are like, wait, this could actually -- instead of being bad satellites, it could be neutral. It might even be positive. So it feels like we've made some education this week.
I hope so. We're trying.
Great. On some of those opportunities, you mentioned drones and robotics and 6G and AI, inference, upload, download, I don't think you hit yet, but we'll hit that as well. Some of this stuff was maybe going to be 5G. 5G let's face it, has maybe underwhelmed.
We've got fixed wireless, which has been a great use case. But there's been a lot of stuff that didn't come in. Why will 6G be -- what's different?
I'm still hopeful the end of 5G, you're going to see some of this. If you go back to 4G, at about this point in 4G 2016, we hadn't seen the social media take off the way it did later in the cycle. So I think there's still time for 5G. With 6G, when I read some of the new white papers coming out, Ericsson has got a great website that lists some of the benefits of it. I think it's creating new capabilities. It's not just more bandwidth, but it's new capabilities. It's spatial tracking, it's things like that. And so I think there are going to be new use cases, new revenue streams that support that.
With 5G -- what it really has done for the carriers is reduce the cost per gigabyte. And so I think we lose sight sometimes of the fact that they need to keep producing more and more data to meet that burgeoning demand that we have. And without 5G, that would have been impossible to do it in an economic way. So I think 5G has been a success from that standpoint, and fixed wireless has given the new revenue streams. So I wouldn't call 5G a bust. I would just call it 5G, maybe not as much as we were hoping as customers would get -- but as I look at 6G, it's just a different set of capabilities is what they're hoping to create with that.
Okay. One of the topics this week at NAREIT has also been the edge. We talked about it years ago, and it kind of quieted down. It's back. What's exciting and what's different about the edge and what does it mean for American Tower?
I got very excited about Edge at the beginning of 5G because mobile edge compute was something that was enabled by 5G, and I was wrong on the timing. It didn't happen as quickly as I thought it was going to be, but it's going to happen. And I'm more convinced than ever, it's going to happen, and I'm more convinced than ever that we have the right to win in that space.
You're now starting to hear other people talk about it. The wireless carriers are talking about it. You're starting to hear some of the chip manufacturers talking about it. Now what is Edge? That's a question a lot of people are trying to answer. And yes, I suspect that everyone's going to have their own definition for a while until we all agree on what it is. But the way we think about Edge is it's where the wireless networks and the compute come together to enable low latency and to take some of the strain off the networks, both the wireless networks and the wireline networks where you're backhauling petabytes of data it's just not efficient to do that.
And the reason that we bought CoreSite originally is when you deploy something at the edge, it still needs to be connected back to a data center that has cloud on-ramps and kind of a wider compute capability. And we think that controlling both ends of that gives us the right to win in that space. I'm not going to predict timelines again because I was wrong the first time. But it is constructive to hear wireless carriers, chip makers, cloud providers, all trying to figure it out. And so we have been experimenting.
We've deployed in Raleigh, North Carolina. We deployed a data center on one of our tower sites as kind of a playground for folks. And we've got some interesting learnings from that. There's a little bit more demand than I thought for some compute there. It may not be the edge use cases yet that are going to promote the wider ecosystem, but people are working on it and people are thinking about it. So I think we're going to see more developments in that, but I think it's undefined at this point exactly what use cases are going to be there, what that facility looks like and when they're going to be deployed.
Yes, makes sense. It feels like AI and inferencing is also going to play into what you need. And let's talk a little bit about downlink versus uplink?
So one of the things that we think could be an accelerant in the back half of 5G is the adoption of AI. When you look at all of the mobile data projection -- growth projections that are out there, they all have an asterisk on them that says, does not assume significant uptake in AI. That's the Ericsson report.
It's kind of some of the other projections that folks make. And -- that's because today when you're using AI on your device, it's typically text, you're chatting with ChatGPT, maybe you have photo, but it's not really bandwidth intensive. And we're not seeing a lot of machine-to-machine today in the AI. Now you're seeing it on the desktop. And I always believe that whatever is on the desktop today migrates to the wireless device tomorrow.
And so I think that you will see these migrate. And when you start seeing more bandwidth intensive uses of AI it may change the architecture of the networks. Some of the early indications that we've heard from some technologists in the field that kind of monitor AI applications has said that they're seeing AI apps use 25% uplink versus traditional networks, which are architected to 10% to 15% uplink. And so when you think about what the customers are going to have to do to provide more robust uplink, that's going to be beneficial for towers.
Now I think everyone is still trying to figure out what does that look like. It's not just adding more spectrum. There's actually a re-architecture. Some of the customers have talked about that. And they're trying to figure out how are they going to do that and we're there to support them. But when I think about what's going to drive higher bandwidth adoption, what's going to drive more activity on our sites than we're anticipating in the base case, AI is certainly one of those.
One of the things that was headlined out there is the carriers, your tenants, your customers are focusing on -- several of them are focusing on convergence, putting mobile and fixed or broadband at least together. Some of them have said they want to cut CapEx to lower levels. How does that impact what you're saying here and the excitement you're feeling about where this industry is headed?
Sure. Well, they've all put kind of broadband and mobility at the center of their strategies. So I don't think anybody is retreating from being a wireless carrier. And when you look at their CapEx spend, that funds a lot of different things. It's not just equipment on towers. It's that, it's fiber, it's investments in the core, it's R&D. There's a number of things we're investing in.
So even if they do take a modest reduction in CapEx, that doesn't mean they're not going to invest in their wireless networks and add equipment to towers. The best predictor of activity on our sites is mobile data growth because it's the stress on the networks that requires the carriers to upgrade those networks to meet their consumer demand.
And so while we do look at CapEx as a little bit of a leading indicator on it, there's not a perfect correlation there because they do have optionality in where they do it. But they're not going to let their networks get bad enough to see subscriber churn and hurt their business for the sake of saving a few bucks.
And you mentioned spectral efficiency can help this mobile demand satisfy it, leasing, but also spectrum. Let's hit spectrum for a second because I always view that as a really nice indicator of what your business might look like in the future.
Sure. Well, let me just kind of reiterate. We're expecting the networks to need to double their capacity by the end of the decade. If you look at all the projections of baseline mobile data growth, not AI, baseline growth double by the end of the decade. And we believe about half of that demand will be satisfied by new spectrum being deployed and technology upgrades in 5G. Every time there's a software release, you get more spectrally efficient. But the other half is going to have to be solved through densification, adding more sites and more equipment to existing sites.
And so when we think about spectrum, more spectrum is good for towers. It always is.
GFT.
Yes. GFT, good for towers. And so we do have some spectrum that's going to come up for auction next year. It will take a little time to clear it and get deployed. Some of that spectrum may get deployed initially with a software upgrade, but radios are not infinite. So even if they initially use a software upgrade for it, there's a limit to how many megahertz, gigahertz, you can put their antenna. There's a limit to how much traffic is going to be there. So it's still a net positive for us because that will promote more traffic, the more traffic that comes through there, the more equipment they need.
So spectrum is good. What I'm more excited about in the spectrum bill and kind of the pipeline is the identification of 6G spectrum because the U.S. has been a little bit behind the rest of the world in identifying and clearing that spectrum. And if you look at The Big Beautiful Bill, it's direct to them to identify spectrum in that kind of 6, 7, 8 gigahertz range, which is predicted to be the ranges for 6G spectrum. That's going to go on towers at that high of a frequency, it's not going to propagate as well. You're going to need more towers. You're going to need more sites. And so when I think about 6G, it's the opportunity to get more colocations on existing sites and maybe to build again. So spectrum is good. The more we get the better, and there's some that's identified, and I'm anxious for that to get sold, cleared and come to market.
It's good to see the FCC get the authority to have auctions again. We've got an auction currently underway, a fairly small auction, get that gear going again and get that machine running.
Absolutely. We need the spectrum pipeline to keep turning.
You touched on data centers, I want to come back to that for a second. Some people kind of forget you guys have got Core. Right now, data centers are trading at a higher multiple than towers. Personally, I believe probably should be -- towers should be probably trading higher. Walk us through what you see with the data center business, why you own a data center business? And how do you get full value for that?
Sure. Well, I agree with you on tower multiples by the way. It probably comes as no surprise to anybody. Let me first distinguish what CoreSite is and what it's not. It's not -- I don't even like calling the data center business. It is an interconnection network-rich hub that lets people communicate to each other. It happens to also be a data center...
Probably get an acronym out of that, I don't know...
Yes, I can get a better name for it. If anybody has any suggestion that would be great. But -- the reason I differentiate that is it's a different business. There's a lot of noise around a lot of money flowing into hyperscale, which are kind of powered shells for single-use facilities. That's not what we do. What we do is we bring networks, enterprises and cloud providers together in an ecosystem where they can trade data directly without having to go out over the Internet and backhaul petabytes of data around. And so we're not a low-cost provider. We're a system that brings customers to clouds and clouds to customers essentially.
And now also AI inferencing is going in those facilities. And that's important because that gives us a more competitive moat around it, a more resilient business. It's a lot safer business, in my opinion, and some of the other stuff that's out there. But the reason we bought CoreSite was for the interconnection environment. Because as we started thinking about the edge and what that looks like, we realized that anybody can drop a shelter somewhere and run a fiber cable to it.
But that fiber has got to land back somewhere it's connected to this rich ecosystem. And we tried to partner with CoreSite before we bought them. We try to partner with some of the other guys as well. And they wanted all the value to go to them instead of to the infrastructure provider. So we think that by owning both ends of that, that gives us a right to win in that space when it evolves at the edge that we see coming eventually.
In the meantime, it's a phenomenally performing asset. Because that interconnection hub is the backbone of how people connect to each other, the AI inferencing is just as dependent on that distribution as the cloud on-ramps were. And so we're seeing tremendous amounts of new business in that. We're dedicating more capital to it. We're building it as quickly as we can. It's a great use of capital. We're continuing to underwrite mid-teens or better stabilized returns, and those get better over time. Those actually get up into the 20s on most of our facilities as they age over time. And it's a very low-risk business for us. So it's not a huge part of our business. It's about 6% of our attributable AFFO.
We hope to grow it bigger than that. But in the meantime, it's a double-digit growth engine and it helps underwrite better growth for us for the long term.
Does it feel like the market is not recognizing the value there, too? Like the market seems to be not -- public markets, are not recognizing what the value of the tower portfolio might be.
We are certainly trying to get the message out on that, Rick, and we do talk about it. We get asked that question. I don't know what all goes to the valuations. I don't always understand where the stock price trades with the current news on it. But we are certainly trying to get the message out, and we're trying to provide more information on it, talk about a little bit more. And again, I think if we can grow it to a larger percentage of the business, maybe people appreciate a little bit more.
Great. Let's go back to where we started almost was your stock performance, there's a large correlation -- inverse correlation to interest rates. What is an interest rate environment really mean to your bottom line AFFO, your fundamentals and how you invest? And some other real estate sectors, the interest rates can really swing.
When you think about our core business. Our interest rate sensitivity in terms of our AFFO is really just our debt stack. And I'll kind of refer back to the conversation I started with, which is we've taken a lot of that risk out.
We've reduced short-term debt. We've been refinancing things that had a lower interest rate on them previously, but we're kind of getting to the tail end of the really cheap debt refinancing. So you're starting to refinance stuff that had a higher handle on it.
So from a cash flow perspective, we've had some headwinds from interest rates. Those are moderating a bit, and those we believe if interest rates stay kind of where they are, will moderate over time. That's the biggest impact on our cash flow on it. When we think about underwriting our investments, it does affect our cost of capital and kind of how we're sourcing opportunities there.
But when we're looking at how to invest to create shareholder value over time, we're looking at what we think the right return criteria is on that. And while it may affect our hurdle rates a little bit, that's not what's preventing us from doing things like M&A today. The reason we're not able to participate in that market is we're not finding the right opportunities that give us the right growth for the long term in the right markets with the right characteristics.
So I would say it's not really the interest rates that are keeping us out of that market. It's more just not having the right deals on the table.
And fundamentally, the leasing activity is driven by mobile demand, not driven by the economy...
Absolutely.
Not driven by cyclicality. It's driven by the addictive nature of a wireless device.
They're not addictive. They're just useful. They're great. Don't limit screen time. There's no reason to do that. The -- if you look at the wireless business in general, we've been through numerous business cycles over our careers and it's proved to be resilient. And it's been recession-proof, investment, investment goes with the technology cycle, you're exactly right. We don't worry about interest rates affecting demand.
And if you look at the demand from our customers, our current projections that we're putting out for everybody in terms of our growth rates represent a new business rate with the 3 carriers that's roughly in line with the average new business we've had kind of even when we had 6 carriers and 5 carriers and 4 carriers. So we see a healthy demand environment for new business, and we don't see that changing based on interest rates or really anything else other than mobile data growth.
So when we think about the growth prospects, so let's bring it all back up to the 30,000-foot view level. What should investors think that American Tower can deliver at a revenue and an attributable AFFO per share growth rate and for dividends as you look out over whatever period you're comfortable with?
Sure. So what we've done is we've given you guys a long-term growth algorithm and let me just kind of walk through the elements of that quickly. So when we think about what our business is going to deliver, we think we can deliver reliably over time, mid- to high single-digit AFFO per share growth. And the components of that are this.
In our developed markets, we expect our organic tenant billings growth rates to be mid-single digits. So that's the U.S. and Europe. In our emerging markets, it should be slightly higher than that. Africa is performing higher today. We've had a little bit of repair in Latin America, but we expect to get through that and get back to that higher growth rate for emerging markets.
Of course, I would expect to have double-digit growth rates over time. We're also going to be investing CapEx in new assets. So that will provide some additional growth for us. We're also going to expand margins. I committed on our last earnings call that we're on the tower side, we will expand margins 200 to 300 basis points over the next several years. We may have a little bit of financing headwinds coming up and FX is a little bit of a volatility piece there. But when you add all those things together, that revenue growth should deliver reliably mid- to high single-digit AFFO per share growth.
And that equates to dividend growth -- that's a board decision but...
So on the dividend side, the guide that we have there is that our policy is to dividend out 100% of our taxable income, roughly over time, that should equal our AFFO per share growth subject to board approval. But that is how you should think about the dividends. It should grow roughly in line with our AFFO per share.
And is AI, edge or any of that stuff in that? Or is that one of those asterisk items?
Those are asterisk items. That's upside. Our projections for that kind of mid-single-digit growth is based on kind of the baseline case is business as usual. And if there are events that change that for the positive, that could be upside from there.
Great. 2, 1, 0. We're done. Thank you, sir.
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American Tower — Nareit REITweek: 2026 Investor Conference
American Tower — Nareit REITweek: 2026 Investor Conference
Vondran schildert American Tower als deutlich risikoärmer, mit Fokus auf entwickelte Märkte, CoreSite als Wachstumshebel und Upside durch AI/6G/Edge.
Präsentation bei NAREIT, Gespräch zwischen CEO Steven Vondran und Raymond James.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
American Tower hat Risiko aus dem Portfolio gezogen (z.B. India-Exit, CapEx-Verlagerung in entwickelte Märkte), stärkt Bilanz (niedrigste Verschuldung, höchste Ratingstellung im Peervergleich) und sieht langfristige Nachfrage durch mobiles Datenwachstum, AI-Inferenz, 6G und Edge‑Anwendungen.
🔥 Strategische Highlights
- Portfolio: Weniger Exposure zu Emerging Markets; Umsatzanteile verschoben zu Top‑1/2 Carrier je Markt, höhere Cash‑Sicherheit.
- CoreSite: Interconnections‑zentrierte Rechenzentren (nicht nur Hyperscale), ~6% des attributable AFFO, double‑digit Wachstum, gewünschter Hebel für Edge.
- Technologie: Satelliten gelten als komplementär (geringes Disintermediation‑Risiko); 6G und neues Spektrum treiben Densifizierung und Colocations.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Guidance‑Check: Bestätigung des langfristigen Algorithmus: mid‑ bis high‑single‑digit AFFO‑per‑Share‑Wachstum; 200–300 Basispunkte Margin‑Expansion auf Tower‑Seite geplant.
- DISH‑Status: DISH‑Churn ist aus den Planungen entfernt (kein Overhang mehr; eventuelle Sammelforderungen sind potentielles Upside).
- Capital‑Deployment: Finanzierungskosten beeinflussen Hürden, aber mangelnde passende M&A‑Gelegenheiten hält Firma vom Zukauf ab, nicht Zinsniveau allein.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Satelliten: Kritische Frage nach Disruption beantwortet: Vondran sieht Satelliten als Ergänzung, eher Nachfragebooster und Hinweisstellen für neue Tower‑Builds.
- AI & Edge: Diskussion zur möglichen Erhöhung des Uplink‑Anteils (von ~10–15% zu ~25% bei AI‑Apps) und wie Edge/CoreSite die Netzarchitektur beeinflussen könnten.
- Bilanz & Zinsen: Wie sensibel ist AFFO gegenüber Zinskosten? Management betont geringere kurzfristige Verschuldung, Refinanzierungsfortschritt und moderate Wirkung auf Cashflow.
⚡ Bottom Line
Für Aktionäre bedeutet die Präsentation: American Tower präsentiert sich defensiver und wachstumsorientiert zugleich — stabilere Einnahmenbasis, solide Bilanz, mittelfristig zuverlässiges mid‑bis‑high‑single‑digit AFFO‑Wachstum und Dividendenwachstum in etwa in Schritt mit AFFO; AI, 6G, Edge und CoreSite sind mögliche Upside‑Treiber, Marktbewertungen hinken aber aktuell privaten Multiples hinterher.
American Tower — J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology
1. Question Answer
My name is Richard Choe. I cover Communications Infrastructure for JPMorgan. I'd like to thank Rod Smith, EVP and CFO of American Tower, for being with us here today.
I'd like to just start off. It was nice to hear John Stankey earlier talk about there's not any easy way to build and invest in your -- in networks. And in the end, I think long term, you need to have the best network to eventually win. And I think people forget kind of the critical part American Tower and other tower companies play in this kind of evolving modern world. So, in just, kind of, resetting expectations and, kind of, reminding people where you sit in the infrastructure, how do you feel your assets are in this ecosystem of, kind of, our increasing digital economy?
Yes. Good morning, Richard. It's great to be with you. And thanks, everyone, for joining. I think there's a couple of keys there that I heard you mention. One is the network quality. It's really network coverage, quality and capacity. That is critical for the networks, not only in the U.S. but around the globe, to keep up with and perform well in an environment where mobile data consumption continues to grow rapidly. That really is the key to everything.
The other word that you used, which I think is a key word is the critical infrastructure. Our infrastructure is amongst the most critical infrastructure within the wireless networks. Again, not just in the U.S., but also around the globe, the tower assets we have, coupled with the data center assets that we have in the U.S.
And as we look at our portfolio today, we are perfectly positioned and probably strategically stronger now than we've ever been in terms of executing on and benefiting from that growth in mobile data consumption we see in the U.S., which is -- has been driven by technology advances. That will continue as 5G networks continue to kind of roll out. They're at the tail end of rolling out 5G networks. 5G applications are still on the move. They'll be coming in the future. That will put another wave of growth in mobile data consumption. 6G will be right around the corner, and AI workloads haven't even really hit the wireless networks yet, but they are coming as well.
So there's a lot of evidence that there'll just be a continuation of applications and services that require increases in mobile data consumption, and our assets are perfectly positioned to help the networks perform the way they're intended to perform, but also help the networks to evolve to where they really need to get to, which is having those critical tower assets, having interconnection-rich, cloud on-ramp centric with heavy network density within the data centers that we have geographically spread around the world and then potentially connecting those assets together, the data centers and the towers, to drive the edge to put more compute capacity closer to the base radios to put more -- to provide access to the cloud on-ramps closer to the base radios. There is going to be likely changes to the network that our assets are perfectly positioned to not only benefit our shareholders, but also benefit the wireless carriers themselves and the subscribers to help the networks work well.
So the U.S. backdrop is fantastic. We've got really what I would consider the best assets in the U.S. in terms of that infrastructure. Our tower assets are #1 in our position. No one has better assets in the U.S. than we have in terms of the portfolio.
And again, our data center assets are very high quality, very unique and perfectly situated to drive the networks of the future. And then that is complemented by fantastic assets around the globe. The European assets we have are outperforming our business case. We expect them to continue to perform in line with the U.S. or faster in terms of the economic growth. Africa is growing a few hundred basis points faster than the U.S. now. That could continue for a number of years given where their network deployments are and the amount of infrastructure that the markets that we're in, in Africa need. Latin America is going through consolidation. It's been a fragmented market. This year will mark the peak of churn in Latin America. Once that subsides, the markets will be in a more constructive position, particularly Brazil, moving to a place where there are 3 wireless carriers today.
And starting next year, we see churn decreasing rapidly and new business probably accelerating and that being very constructive to us and our Latin America portfolio returning to normalized growth when you get into moving towards that in '27 and '28 and beyond. So the backdrop looks really good. It's all centered with us with the critical assets, the highest quality assets in the U.S. within towers and data centers, complemented by the portfolios we have around the globe to take advantage of the different timing and cycle of network rollouts around the world.
Yes. I think it's great that you have this whole, I guess, infrastructure that -- and we'll go back to data centers later, but you can kind of see what's coming down the pipeline. And right now, it seems like we have a lot of data creation, a lot of data analysis and generation at data centers. But eventually, people are going to use that on their devices. And the last mile is literally the tower. So I think people kind of get caught up a little bit in the kind of quarter-to-quarter, day-to-day lease rates, churn. But over time, do you see any change coming in terms of your long-term domestic growth rate? Or do you see kind of the same outlook that we've seen for some time?
We've been focused on driving a higher level of quality in our earnings across the globe, including in the U.S. Certainly, in the last few years in the U.S. specifically, we've had a couple of event-driven noteworthy churn events being Sprint and DISH.
With the absence of those, the other parts of our U.S. cash flow and revenue streams have been very consistent. And we think we return to that consistency next year when our cash flow and our revenue no longer has Sprint, which it doesn't today, and it will no longer have DISH in it. And what is remaining is revenues from the 3 big wireless carriers, and we all know where they are in their network development and their focus on wireless networks. So I guess, I would say their renewed focus and prioritization of their wireless networks.
So we're heading into an environment really beginning in '27 where consistency is the word, particularly in the U.S. stable mid-single-digit organic tenant billings growth, a steadfast focus on efficiency, cost control and margin expansion and then really smart, disciplined capital allocation, all supported by a really strong balance sheet, highest credit rating in our environment or in our segment and the lowest amount of debt. We've reduced our reliance on floating rate debt. So we've got much more certainty in our interest charge line within AFFO. So we're in a really good place.
And when the U.S. has that type of stability, which we are getting to and we'll be there for next year. The rest of the globe complements that. The Europe, Africa and LatAm markets complement that. And all of those markets are heading to a place where they are likely to perform maybe consistently, 200 to 300 basis points faster growth. You could have disruptions in FX here and there. This year, FX is a tailwind. FX is not always going to be wildly negative. It could be mildly negative on a normal basis, and sometimes it will be positive.
We're coming through a period where emerging market currencies have devalued relative to the U.S. over the last several years. It's probably going to be a little bit more stable in the next few years. So you have that stability in the currencies combined with the amount of development that those markets need and the high growth rates that we're seeing, as an example, in Africa, that's going to be really constructive and complement that mid-single-digit AFFO growth that we see in the U.S.
Yes. And you were talking about having your offering last night in Europe. I think it gives you a lot of flexibility in how you finance the business. But I guess for people that don't know as much about international markets, can you talk a little bit on how the organic growth is? Because you talk about FX being up and down and then there's also CPI escalators that could move around. But it seems like there's real significant organic growth coming from these markets, maybe at different levels and different speeds. But in the end, I think the ability to communicate the need for good networks is kind of universal. And maybe separating out the discussion a little bit between your European assets versus your more emerging market assets. How do you view those opportunities as you sit here today?
Yes, I'll start by making a couple of comments on AFFO and AFFO per share. Our view is we will have industry-leading AFFO per share growth. That's going to be underpinned by mid-single-digit revenue growth in the U.S., complemented by faster revenue growth in emerging markets and double-digit revenue growth in our data center platform, a position that's perfectly positioned to deliver mid- to upper single-digit AFFO per share growth reliably.
What that means from the non-U.S. markets is Europe is a set of very high-quality economies, growing the revenue stream there at mid-single digit or better, the same or a little faster than the U.S. is very constructive, and that's what we expect. And there's consistency there.
We're insulated from significant churn events in Europe because much of our revenue is tied to Telefonica on long-term contracts. So there really isn't the opportunity for these onetime non-recurring event-driven material churn like we saw with Sprint and DISH. So Europe is very stable and will be additive to the U.S. growth.
Africa, we're seeing upper single-digit organic tenant billings growth, and that includes offsetting it with a few hundred basis points of churn, which is what we're seeing. That's probably a pretty normal environment for Africa. We think upper single-digit AFFO or organic tenant billings growth is what that market should deliver not every single year. Sometimes it will be double digits. And sometimes it may be lower upper single digits, but it's going to be strong growth. That's what we expect there.
The offset to that is FX and escalators. The escalators really are a natural hedge to offset the FX risk. So what drives the FX risk or the devaluation of currency is when their inflation rate is higher than the host country. So in our example, when inflation is higher in Nigeria than it is in the U.S., you can expect the Nigeria currency to devalue over time at a rate that equals the differential in interest -- in the inflation rates. So there's a natural hedge built in there.
You may have some ups and downs over time. But long term, we should be able to cover off the FX risk. And then we are left with the real growth. The activity-based growth offset by any churn. And in Africa, we see that being upper single digits. So I think it's going to be really constructive over the long term and additive to growth. It helps us bring up that mid-single-digit revenue growth in the U.S. By the time you get down to AFFO per share, you're at upper single digits. It's because you've got these emerging markets that can grow faster. It's -- we add the expense focus in addition to that and the margin expansion.
And with all that said, there are other elements here that could drive upside, most notably, not the only one, but most notably, AI workloads tipping out of the large language model facilities and the hyperscale facilities into facilities like CoreSite at an increasing pace. And eventually, I agree with you that, those workloads will be getting out onto mobile devices. And that means that it needs equipment and towers in order for the networks to function properly.
So this -- my expectation is, there's a never-ending cycle of capital into wireless networks to keep up with the insatiable demand of mobile data consumption. And that's just going to continue. And there will be applications and services available to all of us as mobile devices that we can't even imagine today.
It's funny. I want to hit Latin America and Brazil at some point. But since you went to data centers, I want to have to talk about CoreSite. I mean, there are very few assets, I feel like, that have the interconnection density and footprint that CoreSite has and Equinix and Digital Realty are there also, but CoreSite was a great acquisition. Kind of how are you looking at your investment in CoreSite? How much can you invest and grow that business? And what kind of perspective does it give you in terms of your tower assets as you see AI inference kind of grow?
Yes. We've owned CoreSite for a number of years now, and it's performing exceptionally well, better than we originally underwrote. We've had a number of record-setting new business years in a row, and the demand in the pipeline continues to be strong. So some say our timing was lucky. We like to think that this was a really important asset that we identified and bought.
The reason we bought it was strategic. It wasn't just financial. It wasn't just opportunistic. It was the idea of advancing the networks within the U.S. and around the globe to the point where they can handle the higher levels of service that come with 5G applications, 6G will be coming. And now with AI, it just accelerates all of that where to have the services work properly and for the user to get the full extent of those types of services, the networks have to be reengineered.
The ability for the wireless networks to have symmetry with uplink and downlink is going to be really important. That doesn't exist today, and that's got to be built in. When that happens, the latency within the networks also has to improve for 5G, 6G and AI applications to function properly. That means you want to have more compute power paired at the tower site where the base radios are with a network that has as much uplink capacity as it does downlink capacity. That means more antennas and lines in the towers and more compute-type equipment, maybe cloud on-ramps and interconnection ability at the tower site.
So with our CoreSite facilities connecting those into tower assets, we are in a perfect position to continue to benefit from the development of the mobile data, the mobile networks and the mobile data consumption growth that we see. One of the interesting things between the data centers and towers, for us, they're not just 2 asset classes. They really are strategic and they represent a critical infrastructure in these networks of the future. And the demand drivers are very similar, if not outright the same. It's compute power. It's what the end user is going to be doing on their devices, whether they're mobile or stationary.
We spend lots of time and we have for decades understanding how people use devices and what that means to traffic on networks and what traffic on networks means to carrier investment and our ability to support that and monetize it. It's the same on both sides. The activity and the growth that we see in data centers gets out and drives growth on the towers. So we've got the same revenue drivers, the same demand drivers that we understand really well, and we can invest in that and not just in towers, but also in data centers very successful. And I think we've proven that.
So we're going to continue to invest in data centers. We've got those investments up now from 200, it's gone to 400, then 600, 800. And that's because there is record-setting pipeline. We're getting double-digit growth as a result of that. We're getting to stabilized yields faster, which means we then have to replace new available capacity. And eventually, we hope to and look to tie those assets into the tower sites.
Yes. I think, people should realize that it's not just your availability of data centers and power, but it's the connectivity. And I think a lot of the wireless networks right now is kind of download focused, but with AI applications, we're kind of seeing more 2-way traffic, call it, and uploads. I guess, as CoreSite has developed, like what should people know about the kind of connectivity aspect that is selling the product, not just having data center space and power. As you've seen things evolve, how has CoreSite kind of differentiated itself in a kind of overall data center market that seems to be going really well.
Yes. It's a great point. That word differentiation is important. Not all data centers are the same. They don't all function the same. They're not at the same level of development. What we saw in CoreSite originally has proven out to be true, which is -- it is a high-quality platform with exceptional management.
The high-quality platform really can be measured or identified in a number of ways. We've got cloud on-ramps and multiple cloud on-ramps represented in many, if not most of our facilities across the U.S. That in and of itself makes the centers much different than a data center without a cloud on-ramp. So customers, the big-name enterprises want to be in there so they can tap right into the cloud on-ramps efficiently.
The quality of the network, the number of networks that are represented in there are important too. We've got over 400 in our 9 campuses, lots of networks in there. And then interconnection represents the ability of enterprise customers to cross connect to one another and communicate directly with other enterprise customers. We are driving a level of interconnection. It's really only second behind Equinix. So for a relatively small portfolio on CoreSite, it is interconnection rich, and it's a fantastic attribute of that network, certainly.
The other pieces that people don't think about a lot is just the quality of the infrastructure within our data centers and how well they position us to be critical in the networks of the future. It's the power availability. It's the backup power availability. It's the cooling systems that allow the GPU density to increase in the amount of compute power. In order for that to work, the facilities have to have the right setup in the right environment and CoreSite facilities have that across the board.
So we have been increasing the GPU density. We use liquid cooling in a lot of our facilities that's central to the assets we have. That's what is driving the customers that are in there to increase their interconnection, which is really them increasing their commitment to be within that facility over the long term.
And then they want more space and more power, which is why we're building so much is to keep up with the demand not only from our existing customers, but new customers that want to come in and be part of that ecosystem, tapping into networks, tapping into cloud on-ramps, interconnecting with one another, being able to increase their GPU density within our buildings in a cost-effective way where we already have the liquid cooling or we're able to have -- provide that density for them. So we have a very -- we call it differentiated, but it is of a quality that is really unmatched across the industry. And again, the interconnection and the cloud on-ramps is only second to Equinix.
Yes. And it seems like your business is growing not just with hyperscalers, but also enterprises and I guess, some of the leading-edge new tech or AI companies, I guess, you call it. What are you seeing from more traditional kind of enterprise businesses? And what are your conversations like in terms of the capacity or the level of connectivity that they're looking to buy from CoreSite?
Yes. I mean we have a whole host of enterprise customers that provide some of their workload requirements in our CoreSite facilities. Over the last few decades, we saw a shift from enterprise customers building out their own computer rooms within their facilities, managing all their IT on their own, keeping all their data and everything on-premise. That, over time, shifted towards cloud and everything was moving out of the enterprise location and moving remote off into the cloud.
And now we see a hybrid where part of the enterprise, compute and data, they want access to it closer or in their facility and much of it can still be up in the cloud. CoreSite is the piece there that stays closer to the enterprise. So we're seeing a lot of enterprise users pull things out of the cloud and put it in CoreSite and then they want that cloud on-ramp, so they can connect back into the cloud on-ramp. But they have closer proximity of their compute to their enterprise location, which is key. We see that the demand of compute power just -- the demand just continues to go up.
The other piece that we're seeing, and this is maybe specific to AI, but it's also kind of a technology evolution where the amount of data processing is just going up and up and up on the networks. We are seeing now enterprise customers continue to do all the normal things that they would do and maybe even at an increasing pace. But now we're also seeing them look for space, power and cooling and GPUs and the density to build their own smaller language models so they can figure out how AI is going to be applied to their enterprise and applied specifically to their data, where they'll use the large language models, but they also build their own to process their own data. That is something that we are seeing taking shape within our CoreSite facilities.
I think we're at the very beginning of that. It's not cannibalizing the existing activity. It's additive to that. And when I say all companies, even American Tower, we're all doing it. We're all looking at ways to use AI within our businesses, and it's going to require more compute power and more facility space and dedicated modules and smaller language models. We're seeing that hit the data centers early on here. But I do think we're at early stage of that. And that's why we see compared with the traditional business continuing to grow, double-digit growth within CoreSite and AI just coming into the facilities, we just see a very constructive pathway for very solid growth and the ability to continue to deploy capital into CoreSite.
It's interesting because you have so much to go over on your earnings call. I don't think we always get to that level of specificity. I think the private AI deployments that you're talking about, we weren't expecting until 2028 and the fact that you're seeing some of that now is impressive. But I think more so, I guess, your ability to handle that level of density is something that you haven't talked a whole lot about. Can you talk a little bit more about your ability to service these higher levels of density that people might not realize that CoreSite is able to?
Yes. I think we're in very good shape for a couple of reasons. One is many of our facilities are anchored with liquid cooling chillers that allow us to cool very deep GPU dense cabinets and areas. So we've got that in place without a huge capital upgrade. And we've been doing that very successfully, having much more density with the GPUs and it works perfectly fine, and we can continue to do that.
The other thing I would say is, years ago when we first bought CoreSite, we expected a ramp-up in activity with a larger parent, more financial support, being able to invest into the tailwinds that, that sector had, unlike CoreSite on its own as a public company, struggled investing a little bit. That was a pain point for them.
And so we knew that, that was going to be coming. And so we were ahead of the curve in terms of procuring power in our facilities across the U.S. We've been at a pretty good clip, expanding and buying land adjacent to or within the campuses we have to build brand-new shells. And we've been building brand-new shells in a number of facilities, and we have the power available and the land available to continue to do that to handle the pipeline and the backlog that we have today.
So if we were waking up now and saying AI is coming, we would be a few years behind in terms of trying to catch up. But luckily, early on, we began to ramp up capital investments, procure the land, procure the power, and that has proven to be really wise. And we're continuing to accelerate that. That's why you see the CapEx that we're investing in CoreSite has gone up noticeably.
But the key that I would also say there is it's within a very disciplined capital allocation approach. So we've sharply increased investments in CoreSite. We haven't sharply increased our capital investments overall. We've reallocated investment capital appetite away from emerging markets and towards the U.S. and in CoreSite, and we're doing build-to-suits in Europe.
Yes. It's funny that you can spend hundreds of millions of dollars and people don't blink anymore though you're spending that level of capital. You mentioned earlier, like you have this kind of AFFO per share growth algorithm, and you have this great CoreSite business, but sometimes it might get lost in the larger portfolio of assets. But it seems like you are committed to, kind of, keeping these assets together to help invest and leverage each of the assets off of each other and kind of under this financial portfolio that you can kind of allocate across the different types of businesses.
What are investors missing because right now, there's kind of this disconnect of the valuation that the public markets are seeing versus what we're hearing how the businesses will do or are doing. How do you look at these different parts? And what do you think people are missing in these assets kind of being together?
I think the first thing I would say is that, these are long-term assets and creating value for shareholders over the long term is really the lens to look at this infrastructure in this real estate, both towers and data centers. That goes for our U.S. assets as well as our assets around the globe. They're long term in nature.
And the value creation is over the long term. And when you look at it through that lens, consistent earnings growth and even small improvements over the way, compounded over decades creates a lot of value. So if you have long-term investors that really look at these assets and they worry less about, oh, there's 1 year of DISH churn or we had this happen, selling to India had a little dilution, like those things come and go, and we would rather have them not come at all, which is why we've been focused on quality of earnings, which I think we've made great improvements there.
But now we are sitting at a place where we have really the essential infrastructure for networks around the globe to work properly. And we have our very best assets in the U.S., the most constructive, highest quality economy where we see the demand is just going to continue as we go forward. And there could be synergies between towers and data centers and driving the edge and tying things together. But even if there isn't, there -- these -- both of these assets are really well positioned, and they're both critical to the networks, and we understand the revenue drivers. They're not misplaced by having them together in our view.
What I think investors might be missing is not looking at that longer-term view. Being too worried about what happened this quarter, last quarter, is new business going to be at this level this year, or is it a little bit lower than that? Think about this over the long term, think about the growth in data consumption over the networks, think about the technology upgrades, the new spectrum, the services that will be coming, try to envision the services that you can't even envision today, but you know they'll be here. The world will be different 10 years from now, and our assets will be essential to make the networks work well, and we and the shareholders will benefit from that.
That's one of the things I think the private investors do a little bit differently is they don't have quarterly reporting requirements. They're not overly concerned about onetime events and growth on a quarterly basis. They're internal rate of return driven. And there's a time horizon that they invest in, and that's getting longer with these assets, not shorter, even private equity invest in these assets for 7 years, 10 years or beyond.
And they really look at the revenue drivers, their economic ability and power to drive a certain internal rate of return over that time, and they're very comfortable with what they see and they price the assets accordingly. I think public investors look at the shorter-term volatility a little bit too much. You're not getting full credit for the data centers, so maybe you should separate those. We may not be getting full credit for the data centers. We may not be getting full credit for the towers. Over time, I think it will become much more clear how important these assets are to the networks, how anchored our company is with these fabulous U.S. assets and the nice complement we have with assets around the globe and how they will contribute to growth over the long term.
Yes. And I mean, I guess it feels very short term to think you need to try to realize value for a certain asset at a certain time. But the way you're looking at it is, these are probably critical assets that would be hard to replicate in another way if you're starting from scratch or even a private enterprise. Is that how you're viewing kind of your whole portfolio in view?
Yes, I think that's exactly right. I mean, when you think of the changes that will happen to the networks, the requirement for more compute power and cloud access closer to the base radios, you'd have network -- networking companies needing to talk to tower companies as well as data center companies and maybe others or for a tower company to participate in the edge, there need to be a partnership with a data center company, that gets very complicated.
We have the greatest assets in the U.S. We have some of the greatest -- we have the greatest tower assets in the U.S. We have some of the greatest data center assets. We have the cloud on-ramps, the compute power, the interconnection, high-quality names, all the hyperscale players are in our facilities. They are our customers now.
The folks that will make the edge work are our customers. The folks that need the edge to work are our customers as well. We are perfectly positioned to tie things together. We don't need to do economic sharing to kind of partnership to bring the right assets. We own the right assets, and we're in a really good position. I think that will become more evident over time -- and you'll see just how critical these assets are and how stable the revenue and earnings growth can be, notwithstanding the fact that we've had a couple of years, a few years here where we've had these onetime non-recurring event-driven headwinds, the Sprint churn, the DISH churn and things like that, but that really is behind us.
Great. I think we'll leave it at there, and it will be nice next year to not have to talk about those onetime items. Have a good day.
Yes. Thank you, Richard. Thanks, everyone.
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American Tower — J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology
American Tower — J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology
American Tower positioniert Türme und CoreSite-Rechenzentren als kombinierte Infrastrukturplattform für 5G, Edge-Computing und AI-getriebene Nachfrage.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: Türme plus hochwertige Rechenzentren (CoreSite) sollen als aufeinander abgestimmte Infrastruktur den Übergang zu 5G/6G, Edge-Computing und AI ermöglichen.
- Portfolio: US‑Assets als Qualitätsanker, Europa stabil durch langfristige Verträge, Emerging Markets (insb. Afrika, Lateinamerika) liefern deutlich schnelleres organisches Wachstum.
- Timing: Management rechnet ab 2027 mit wieder stabilen, mid‑single‑digit organischen US‑Wachstumsraten und insgesamt mid‑ bis upper‑single‑digit AFFO‑per‑Share‑Wachstum.
📌 Strategische Highlights
- AFFO‑Ziel: Industrieführendes AFFO‑per‑Share‑Wachstum, getragen von US‑mid‑single‑digit Umsatz plus schnelleren Emerging‑Market‑Raten und double‑digit Data‑Center‑Wachstum.
- CoreSite‑Fokus: Stark erhöhte Investitionen in CoreSite (GPU‑Dichte, Liquid‑Cooling, Cloud‑On‑Ramps, Interconnection) und Verschiebung von CapEx von Emerging Markets in die US‑Datenzentren.
- Risikomanagement: Höhere Earnings‑Qualität, geringere Floating‑Rate‑Verschuldung, stärkere Bilanz und weniger Sprint/DISH‑Churn künftig.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- AI‑Adoption: Private AI/kleinere Sprachmodelle und AI‑Inference kommen früher in CoreSite an als erwartet; Nachfrage nach GPU‑dichte realisiert sich bereits.
- CapEx‑Reallocation: Beschleunigte Flächen‑, Leistungs‑ und Landbeschaffung für neue Shells in CoreSite‑Campi; CapEx‑Anteil für Data‑Center deutlich erhöht.
- Marktprofil: Europa bleibt stabil dank langfristiger Kundenverträge (z.B. Telefonica); Afrika liefert Upper‑Single‑Digit organisches Wachstum trotz FX‑Volatilität.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Netz‑Position: Wie positioniert sich AMT im Netzwerk‑Ecosystem? Management betont Kombination aus Türmen, Interconnection und Cloud‑On‑Ramps als Wettbewerbsvorteil.
- CoreSite‑Differenz: Warum CoreSite? Antwort: hohe Interconnection, multiple Cloud‑On‑Ramps, Liquid‑Cooling und verfügbare Power/Land ermöglichen schnelle GPU‑Skalierung.
- Bewertung & Timing: Analysten fragten nach Bewertungslücke; Management verwies auf Langfristhorizont und strukturelle Werttreiber, ließ aber detaillierte Near‑Term‑KPI‑Prognosen aus.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: American Tower stellt sich als integrierter Infrastrukturbetreiber für die AI‑und‑5G‑Ära auf; CoreSite ist kurzfristiger Wachstumstreiber, Türme liefern stabile Cashflows. Anleger sollten den längeren Zeithorizont und die strukturellen Nachfrage‑Treiber beachten, während Quartals‑Volatilität und Bewertungsdiskrepanzen bleiben können.
American Tower — MoffettNathanson's Media
1. Question Answer
All right. Well, good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us for the second day of the MoffettNathanson Media, Internet & Communications Conference. I'm Nick Del Deo, and I'm thrilled to be joined by Rod Smith, EVP and CFO of American Tower.
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining so early in the morning. Yes.
Thanks for joining us, Rod. Appreciate it.
Welcome. Happy to be here.
Yes. So listen, I want to start with an interesting comment that Steve made on your earnings call a couple of weeks ago. He said, "I believe that American Tower is on its strongest strategic footing in at least a decade." It's a pretty strong statement. So I wanted to know if you could expand on what he means by that.
And more importantly, what it means for the company and for its investors prospectively.
Yes, it's a great question, great way to start this morning. And I would say 2 things on the outset. One is the genesis and the basis for that comment is, number one, American Tower has never been stronger, and I'll explain what that means to us. And that's also combined with just a great set of opportunities. And you take that strength and put it up against the opportunities, and we do think it is amongst, if not the most, compelling strategic framework that we've had at American Tower.
So when I highlight the fact that American Tower is incredibly strong at the moment, it really comes in a few categories. Number one, we spent several years strengthening the company, improving the balance sheet strength, reducing the interest rate risk by reducing our exposure to floating rate debt. And in the last couple of years, we've had 2 notch upgrades on our credit rating. We're up to BBB+. That's a pretty strong investment-grade balance sheet, certainly the strongest amongst all of the tower companies.
We've also paired that strength with improvements in the quality of our earnings and the mix of our cash flow. So you've all heard us talk about the fact that we are focused on increasing exposure within our cash flows from the highest quality economies in the world, the developed markets. And at the same time, reducing our exposure in our cash flows from emerging markets. Some of the places where you see more volatility where we've experienced more volatility, we've made great progress along those lines, and we have our exposure to emerging markets now down below 25%, moving to 20% and we will continue to bring that lower.
So the quality of our earnings is much better, much stable or much more durable, and we think that is important. We've also improved our margins by a few hundred basis points over the last few years. We've streamlined operations around the globe. We've created a global Chief Operating Officer, so we can unify processes and have standards around the globe and take the best part of our company, which is our operational ability in the U.S. that we've been honing for 25, 30 years and really accelerating rolling that operational expertise out across the globe. That's helping us reduce costs and improve margins.
So we have an incredibly strong business. We have an incredibly strong balance sheet. And that is great, but the thing that makes it even greater is it's up against a fabulous set of opportunities. When you look at the kind of the go-forward path here across our portfolio, we've got a great portfolio in the U.S. We've got 5G rolling out. 5G applications are on the way. The U.S. business is more stable than I would say it has been in decades with the Sprint churn behind us, the DISH churn now behind us.
The cash flows in the U.S. are incredibly stable. So we feel really good about that. We have that great tower business. 6G is on the way, and we see a stable mid-single-digit recurring revenue growth in our U.S. business, which is the anchor for the whole business. And then we combine that in the U.S. with CoreSite, a fabulous set of interconnected rich data center assets with cloud on-ramps, hundreds of networks represented within those facilities that we have.
And this is at a time when compute power across enterprise customers and others is just accelerating. And we're seeing that in our pipeline. We're seeing that in our growth rates. We've had a record new business across that platform. We're seeing double-digit economic growth over the last couple of years, year-over-year.
And with the demand that we're seeing, we don't expect that to change. And AI workloads and interesting is just coming. It's just beginning to really get through our pipeline and get into our facilities. So you look at that high-quality assets, you look at the strength of our balance sheet and our operational business. The combination of towers and data centers with the backdrop of demand. It's an incredibly compelling story, it is the way we see it. And we've been working over the last several years to position ourselves for what we see unfolding right now.
Great overview. Touches on a lot of things, and I want to dig into more. I guess to paraphrase almost, it sounds like $1 of earnings is worth more than $1 of earnings in the past, and you've got a better ability to prosecute the opportunities ahead.
Yes, I think that's right. And I would just emphasize again the quality of earnings. That is important to us. We take actionable steps to improve that. We have -- you've seen it. selling India was an effort to improve our quality of earnings. What quality of earnings means to us is the higher quality, the more durable it is, the more predictable it is, the more repetitive it will be that we can count on, not just the recurring some of the cash flow, but the growth as well with fewer and smaller potential disruptions.
Great. Great. Well, let's dig into the growth outlook. Probably the most common question I get from clients, not surprisingly relates to the growth outlook for the U.S. tower business. There are several different facets to it, whether it's spectrum auctions, the industry structure, 6G, AI and so on. So historically, the spectrum auctions have been a stimulant for leasing. There are some auctions on the horizon, think most notably, the upper C-band middle of next year and you've got several hundred megawatts megahertz in the years that follow for 6G.
So I guess with respect to C-band, what's your current understanding as to what's going to have to be deployed on the towers to make that work and the degree to which carriers may or may not be able to reuse C-band equipment that they have today.
Yes. I would start there by maybe taking a step deeper and going to level deeper. The reason the industry needs additional spectrum, which it does. You hear all the wireless carriers talk about the need for additional spectrum. And that need is coming quickly in the short term, in the next few years. There is an allocation of spectrum pushed in The Big Beautiful Bill. So it does look like Spectrum will be coming. But that's not the whole story. The real story is why does the industry need that spectrum. The industry needs additional spectrum because of the growth in mobile data consumption across the network. It continues to grow at a rapid pace, 30% to 35% a year. That means every few years, it doubles. The amount of bandwidth going through wireless networks is doubling. And that means that the amount of capacity built into the wireless networks also need to double over the next several years to keep up with that growth in mobile data consumption.
The way the wireless carriers keep up with that is by expanding capacity within the network. They can do that by bringing in new spectrum and increasing the amount of spectrum so that you have more capacity available or you have to reuse the spectrum you already have more frequently and break it down and separate it and either way, whether you have new spectrum coming in, like will probably be happening or if you don't get the spectrum and you just have to reuse your existing spectrum more frequently, it's going to require additional equipment on the cell site.
It's going to require additional base radios, additional radio heads up on the towers, cables and lines going up and down the towers and additional antennas and maybe new antennas as well.
Some of the spectrum, certainly it can be -- it can reuse some of the existing equipment up there, but much of it is going to require new equipment. But -- it really is -- the story really is beyond the spectrum, it's about the growth in mobile data consumption. And as that data consumption growth continues to increase, there needs to be more equipment on the towers, whether there's new spectrum or not. That is what underpins our growth going forward and what makes us feel very comfortable and confident in the U.S. position in our towers and our ability to grow in that mid-single digits year-over-year reliably.
And I would say we've been doing that over the last several years but we've also added some event-driven headwinds, very specific event-driven headwinds like Sprint churning off their network because they were bought by T-Mobile, DISH selling their spectrum and coming off of that -- those are event-driven onetime items. The underlying run rate business from the 3 big carriers and others has been very consistent in delivering that mid-single-digit revenue growth.
As I think about some of the spectrum bands coming to market in the coming years that the NTIA is looking at, very high -- or I shouldn't say very high, but much higher frequency bands than what's been deployed today. I think all else equal, people would generally say that higher frequency means you need a denser cell grid to support it. On the flip side, somebody might argue that maybe it's so high that it's uneconomic to deploy in some areas. How do you shake out on that front? .
Yes. I mean there's no question that we are already into the higher bands of spectrum. And when you get through 5G and into 6G, it's absolutely likely that we'll be into higher band spectrum, high C-band spectrum.
And the higher the spectrum band, the benefits to the networks are that they're -- It's a wider band and there's more capacity. More advanced applications require more capacity. AI-driven applications are going to require more capacity. So it is that higher spectrum is a benefit to the network in getting these more advanced applications to work properly.
With that said, the higher band spectrum and the more capacity, the shorter the reach, it doesn't propagate as far. So if you look at a 600 megahertz design ring and then you overlay a higher band, high C-band spectrum over that, it's not going to reach nearly the coverage zone that the 600 does. It will be much smaller.
So what that means is if you want that higher band reach capacity benefits and service benefits like lower latency, faster speed, just that higher throughput, you're going to need to densify the network. You're going to have more transmission points where in 600 you have 1, in a higher band spectrum you might need 2 or even 3 over time. That's where carriers will be co-locating on existing towers and are currently on to reuse the spectrum to have more transmission points within their network or they'll build additional sites to densify it.
But I do think that's where the industry is headed is these new applications, these higher, faster, bigger services that require more capacity definitely are coming, and it's going to require more transmission points, which is really good for the tower sector for us, in particular, I'll just remind folks that across our 43 towers, our largest customers are on something roughly equivalent to half of our towers, which means there's roughly half of our towers are available for all of the 3 big carriers to co-locate on a tower they're not already on, and that could be the first wave of densification could be increasing colocation.
Then the next phase may be building new towers, which we -- as we pursue really leaning into the U.S. market, both on the tower side and data center side, deploying more capital in the U.S. is something we're interested in doing and building towers for the carriers is something that we would be interested in doing.
Okay. Great. In your opening remarks, you talked about having Sprint churn and DISH churn sort of in the past kind of speaks to consolidation in the industry and going down to a few financially healthier carriers that are more stable. There's one argument to be made that in that sort of scenario, they can afford to invest more in their networks over time and then it's beneficial to towers. On the other hand, one could argue that more carriers there are, there's more redundant deployments, more inefficiency in the network, less coordination in the past, and that's -- that dampens leasing activity relative to what it might have been. How do you think about those puts and takes as we think about the longer-term trajectory relative to the past?
I think trying to identify in the industry getting to the optimal number of carriers and having them be healthy fully competitive balanced market share, that's the best backdrop for us. In the U.S., that looks like it's 3 carriers. That could be an argument that a 4-carrier backdrop in the U.S. could also make sense and could be stable. And if DISH continue to pursue the build-out and really focused on getting subscribers, that could have been the fourth network. That is certainly possible.
But we've seen in the U.S. and around the globe, when you have 5, 6, even more carriers within the marketplace, it has proven to be unsustainable over time. And in that environment, yes, you can get some lease up, but as things consolidate in, you may have a little bit of churn. But typically, the acquiring company needs the spectrum. They keep the subscribers. They even need the coverage in the cell sites. There could be some churn.
So it could very well be that consolidation doesn't drive significant churn. But on the other side, with something like DISH, it could drive a lot of churn. And with Sprint, there was obviously a lot of churn. We've seen some churn and consolidation down in Brazil. We think now in some of our biggest markets, the backdrop is healthier today than it's been in a long time. The U.S. with 3 financially healthy carriers in the U.S. all putting billions of dollars into the networks on an annual basis. We see at least in our customer base in Europe, anchored by Telefonica, again, high-quality economies, Telefonica is investing in the network. We're a big part of that. It's a very stable backdrop.
Even when you get out into Brazil in a place in Brazil that -- they've moved through consolidation. We now have a large market with 3 carriers, pretty equally distributed market share, healthy competition and we're right in the center of it. And that looks like it could be a constructive market going forward. With that said, we've got an investment there. We have assets there. Our plan is to sit and support the carriers and see how that network does over time, see how that currency does over time, not jumping in and increasing capital. But now letting the capital we've already invested there play out and really -- and watch the investment.
Okay. Great. So 6G. That's something that folks are starting to talk about. Still a number of years away, but I'm sure that you have teams at AMT kind of thinking about how that's going to play out. you're probably having preliminary discussions with the carriers, I'd imagine. So I guess what attributes of 6G do you find most intriguing from a leasing perspective?
Yes. there's no question you can't stop the technology and the progress that has made the networks today operate so much differently than they did a decade ago or more. If you think of the wireless networks pre-iPhone versus today, it's night and day what people do on their mobile devices and just how much traffic goes on the mobile devices. If you rewind even 10, 15, 20 years ago, very few people would have imagined how much and what kind of services can be done on an iPhone and a mobile device.
My sense is that's what the next 10 and 15 years are going to be like, which is whatever these networks evolve to look like over time, it's going to be different than what people expect. It's going to be more exciting. It's going to be more impressive. The services are going to be different, and they will likely require lots of bandwidth, very low latency, really quick reaction time.
And the one thing that I think people are really coalescing around in terms of 6G is that it will run on higher-band spectrum. The networks will need to be dense. The applications will be bandwidth intensive and that's all good for tower companies in terms of needing more equipment up on the networks.
Today, the networks are primarily designed for download speeds for people downloading data onto their phone and doing it relatively quickly. And there isn't nearly as much capacity or throughput on the uplink. It just hasn't been a function of the network. 5G and into 6G that uplink is going to be just as important as the downlink. So the networks have to be fundamentally reengineered and redesigned so that there's symmetry on the uplink and the downlink for some of these more interactive 5G and 6G services to work properly. That's capital investment, that takes additional equipment, and I think that's going to be pretty exciting.
I'm not going to guess at what 6G applications are going to look like because I know I'm going to be wrong. But I'm pretty sure they're going to be more exciting than any of us could imagine. And they're going to require lots of bandwidth. And the networks will need to continue to be strengthened, densified, more equipment to handle the amount of capacity that they're going to be asked to put through the networks on a daily basis.
So I was at the Tower Show ConnectX last week and a common theme that I picked up was the idea that 6G plus AI would be, maybe killer apps is the wrong term, but something that would help to stimulate leasing and traffic demand on the networks. Is that something that you guys are anticipating?
Yes, I think so. I mean when you think about 6G and the fact that networks will likely be dense or the uplink needs to be strengthened, it's probably going to also require and be the catalyst that really pushes the edge forward that brings compute power closer to the end users, closer to where the wireless-based radios are, and that's where our towers and our data centers perfectly position us to play a meaningful role in a 6G environment, not just putting additional equipment up on our towers, but also benefiting from the interconnection and the inferencing, the AI entrancing that we now see coming into the CoreSite facilities.
And we're at the very early stages. Our sense is that, that's just going to continue to ramp and we're going to continue to see very healthy pipelines in our CoreSite facility as well as seeing acceleration in the amount of equipment that goes up on our towers over time as we get through 5G and 6G. We see these new applications hitting. And then there's this ecosystem in the middle that is becoming more of a reality. More of the players are talking about it. The carriers are talking about it. The chip companies are talking about it. And that is driving and pushing cloud on ramps closer to the end-user, getting compute power closer to the end user with that inferencing can happen.
So to benefit from the high capacity and the low latency in the 6G wireless networks, you're going to have that capacity, that compute capacity and access to your information that might be up in the cloud, you want that closer to the base radios to again reduce transport cost, but also reduce latency and give you that faster reaction time.
So you don't want the benefits of the higher spectrum on the wireless networks to be lost when you get into the data centers. So pushing that out closer to that power is going to be key. And we're really well positioned to help the industry get there.
Okay. So that actually ties into the next topic I want to talk about, which is mobile Edge compute or Edge data centers. Yes, there's a lot of enthusiasm for that several years ago and it didn't quite play out. It sounds like there's more enthusiasm across the industry today. We heard that on everybody's Q1 earnings calls. I heard that at the tower show last week. And you touched on it a little bit, what gives you the confidence that this time around with 6G and what we're seeing is going to be different than what was anticipated a few years ago where it kind of petered out a bit, it didn't quite play out as expected?
Yes. When we bought CoreSite, which was several years ago, 1 of the things we really like: in addition to just the high-quality differentiated set of assets, we do think it's a premier set of data center assets in the U.S., and we wanted to own it. We also thought that pairing that with our towers in the U.S. that we would be the perfect partner to develop the Edge, and we saw that coming even years ago.
It has been happening just slower than we thought. Maybe you could just say much slower than we thought. But we have seen progress in that pursuit. More of the carriers today, more of the tech companies and the chip manufacturers are all talking about the Edge. They're all formulating their plans. We're in the midst of many of those discussions with people. So I would say, as we sit here today, we are highly confident that the Edge is coming, that it has to come because it's a necessary component of the networks to make everything work well into the future.
Then the real question is, are we really differentiated? What is our value proposition with our towers and our interconnection-rich, cloud on-ramp, kind of dense geographically dispersed set of assets up against all of our tower assets, bringing those together, does that put us in a good position to fill that need for the industry, and that has yet to be seen. We'll continue to work through that. But we're at the table. We're having the discussions with lots of different parties.
I'm highly confident that the Edge is definitely coming. We'll figure out what the business model is and how we best support the industry and our shareholders in what role we potentially play there. And as we do that, we'll continue to be disciplined. And it will develop, we potentially would be right in the middle of it. And to the extent that it doesn't develop as quickly as we thought or if for whatever reason, we don't play as big of a role, we still have a great separate assets that are performing exceptionally well.
And one of the keys there is the 2 assets, even though they look different they benefit and their revenues and their economics are really driven by the same demand. It's data consumption across networks. And we understand that really well. That helps us run both of the assets well. It helps us make capital allocation decisions and figure out where and when to invest because we know that ecosystem and the drivers around data and data consumption across mobile networks and through traditional landline networks as well.
Maybe it's too soon to tell, but do you envision this playing out such that you might have say, a small data center, a single small data center in a metro area, akin to with the trial when rallying with North Carolina? Or do you imagine it getting denser than that where you might have multiple facilities in a given metro area?
I think everything is possible, and I don't believe it's 1 size fits all. I think the way that it is likely to roll out is that there will be a continuous kind of connectivity from mobile devices right through to radios and into cloud on-ramps, you're likely to see as the Edge develops our core site facilities expand into other metros, moving closer to the end users. And in some places where there is high population density and the most acute examples of high bandwidth going through the networks, you could see relatively small data centers pushed out right to the very edge. And in other places, you could see larger centers kind of move back a little bit. And over time, everything probably fills in. So I think it's a little bit of all of the above.
Okay. Okay. Let's pivot to satellite. If there's a single topic I've gotten more questions on this here than any other, it's satellite. So questions from investors that whether it might substitute for capacity in rural areas, whether it's for a terrestrial customer layers, whether it could be something more, whether there might be a play on the part of someone to try to build out and become the new fourth player?
So maybe you could talk a bit about that topic, how you're thinking about risks, opportunities. And to the extent that there was news this morning about the carriers talking about putting together a joint venture to attack this, your initial thoughts on that?
Yes. I think it's a great technology. We have an investment in AST Mobile. We have a board seat on that publicly traded company. So we understand it well. We understand the technology well as a firm. And we track all the details of where that technology has been and where it's going.
And we think it's an exciting technology. It's a complementary technology to the terrestrial networks. It is a great way to extend coverage to hard-to-reach places and to very hard to reach places as well.
So I think it's a service to humanity to be able to have satellite coverage everywhere for people who need it and want it. The advancements around direct to devices is really good, compelling. But it's complementary. And what that means is it is not a competitive threat to terrestrial wireless networks. And therefore, in our opinion, it's not a threat to the towers that support those terrestrial networks. And it really comes down to physics and capacity and speeds. The satellites do a really good job of reaching into hard-to-cover areas. It is not an equivalent service in terms of the capacity or the speeds that you get in the terrestrial network.
So -- and when I say capacity, it's not just on an individual call doesn't have the capacity. The satellite arrays, they do not have the spectrum or the capacity to cover a population like the U.S. or any of the major cities or suburban areas. It's not possible. There are limitations to how many subscribers and what can be going through the satellite arrays, and it is a -- it is just a fraction of what the terrestrial networks do.
So it is a great complement. It gets into hard-to-reach areas and it extends the current terrestrial networks. In no way does it compete with what the terrestrial networks provide and what the terrestrial networks do. And then even when you get into individual phone calls, the amount of capacity and the bandwidth and the speeds, you'll be able to get that a level on terrestrial networks that you don't get on satellite networks. So those 5G, 6G services require the terrestrial networks.
I'm sure you've done a lot of work internally tower-by-tower to determine how many sites you may own that could conceivably face a risk from satellite, if you were to look at a few years with technology improvements and whatnot more spectrum.
Are you willing to put a number on that or dimension how small that is?
Yes. I mean it's -- probably not putting a number on it. What I would say is our towers are primarily in suburban areas where people live, and then they commute into the cities, and we cover the roadways. It extends out a little bit beyond where the traditional suburbs may be.
And -- but I would also highlight the fact that the cost of a megabit running through a network is for the carriers is much less if they're running it through their own network, including on towers that we own, they're parts of their network than it is to be paying on a minute-per-use to satellite providers or even on an MVNO in a lot of cases.
So what we've seen is the carriers would share networks on an MVNO basis in more rural areas. And then as their consumption got to a point where there was a tipping point, then they would turn on their own network and extend their coverage. That's primarily where our towers are when you think about the Edge of the network, they're unlikely to be displaced by satellites because that would just be transferring minutes of use to a higher cost, and you have already got the network in place.
With that said, satellites may prevent some sites from being built in rural areas. And that really will be a nice complement to the wireless carriers, and it will allow them free up kind of mind and resources to really focus on their networks, the core of their network, that's where we provide the service. So we think that's a good thing for us.
Okay. Great. There's some news a few days ago regarding DISH. The FCC and their orders approving the spectrum transfers from EchoStar to SpaceX into AT&T said that EchoStar would have to set up a trust funded with $2.4 billion to help cover claims of nonpayment, whatnot.
I know you're not going to show your hand here, but interested in your general thoughts about the structure that's been proposed and whether that might be beneficial for you guys?
Yes. Just a few brief comments. And of course, there's litigation involved and it's hard to really comment too much on government agency actions.
But I would say 2 things. One is we have a contract with DISH, it goes out over many years. And we have filed litigation to force DISH to honor their commitments within our contract. That pursuit continues regardless of spectrum transfer and any other FCC actions. And I would say the only limiting factor in terms of what we could potentially be awarded there is the rights we have within the contract and the lawsuit plays out and what the court system decides. It won't be limited by the amount of escrow and that sort of thing.
We have a contract. We feel very good about our rights. There is certain amounts owed to us, and we will pursue every aspect of that fully. And with that said, on the other side, separately, the FCC did approve the spectrum transfer. I think approving it is good. Not having that spectrum in limbo for a long time is better for, I think, everyone. So if the spectrum is not going to be built out anymore from DISH perspective and AT&T and others want to get their hands on it. When they get it, they will deploy it. So the sooner they get it, the faster they'll deploy it and the quicker that brings us to a new revenue event potentially as and when they deploy it.
So I think approving that is a good thing from our perspective given where everything sits today. And then on the flip side, that escrow, it basically just gives a limited kind of safety net to any judgments that vendors may get against DISH, that if they have trouble collecting on those judgments, there is some money in third -- in an escrow that you could try to go after. And we don't know exactly how that would be adjudicated, what the rules will be on that, how it will be administered, but it's there.
So that is better than if it's not there. But in no way does it limit what we would expect the court system to do in terms of helping us enforce the rights that we have within the contract.
Okay. Makes sense. Capital allocation has been a big priority for you guys in recent years. Like you said, focusing on higher-quality markets, more predictable returns and so on. In your remarks earlier, you said you were hopeful that you could do more construction of U.S. towers. I know historically, at least last several years, I think the sort of terms and conditions you're being offered on new construction did not meet your threshold. What -- how confident or what's your sense that, that is changing such that you feel like you could participate in more construction?
Yes. I'm not sure that it is changing dramatically, but the willingness on our end to deploy capital in the U.S. is certainly there. And as always, we will be disciplined. We do bring some things to bear that other smaller developers don't, the scale of our reach and our ability to build lots of towers quickly, time to market; the value proposition, I think, could be compelling. In this environment where interest rates are a little bit higher, smaller developers may not have as easy access to capital. So someone that has a large build plan that requires lots of capital, the options are fewer today than they might have been 5 years ago. And that is something that we'll kind of wait and see. We -- in terms of our focus on increasing exposure in the more developed markets, reducing it in emerging markets, we've been able to rotate our capital deployments to the best options for our shareholders long term in our view.
And that means today, we're allocating the vast majority of our discretionary CapEx is going into developed markets, primarily U.S. and Europe. And much of that is going into data centers in the U.S. So we continue to deploy $1.5 billion to $2 billion annually kind of opportunistically. And within that number, keeping that number relatively consistent, we've increased our annual capital investments in CoreSite, our data center platform from $200 million a year up to $800 million a year. And that may continue to be elevated because the demand is just so strong. And when I say demand, it is showing up just in our pipeline. It's giving us pricing power. It's fueling and driving double-digit economic growth within that business. And that doesn't appear to be slowing and maybe even accelerating with AI coming in.
So we've rotated capital -- and we've been able to dramatically increase the investments in CoreSite without dramatically increasing our overall capital programs or stressing the balance sheet. We've also been below 5x now back within our stated range, and we bought back over $500 million of American Tower stock in the last couple of quarters. And again, combined with accelerated investments in CoreSite and keeping our leverage download, everything on the balance sheet is really working where we're targeting where we put the capital.
We're maintaining that high-quality balance sheet and that is helping us with our quality of earnings because we're increasing the amount of cash flows we're getting in the U.S. and in U.S. dollars and now from CoreSite.
And that puts us in a really strong position to durably drive industry-leading AFFO per share growth. And we're targeting that in the mid- to upper mid-single-digit growth rates in the U.S. That's what we've been focused on for a few years and putting together the pieces that would allow us to do that, not just once or once in a while, but repeatedly, that's the quality of earnings.
And now that we're moving through DISH, we've gotten through Sprint, we've got India out of the way, we've grown into a higher interest rate environment with a much stronger balance sheet and longer-term financing, we're in a really good position to begin to deliver beyond this year once we get through the DISH churn that mid-single-digit AFFO per share growth, upper mid-single-digit AFFO per share growth. And we believe that, that will be an industry-leading growth rate.
That ties in perfectly to the last question I wanted to ask, which is kind of the growth algorithm for the stock perspective. So like you said, mid- to high single-digit AFFO per share growth over time. I think the yield on the stock today is around 4%. It's high single, low double-digit returns together, which is pretty interesting, given the risk profile of the business and the quality assets. So I guess one, in your mind, is that a fair way to think about it? And two, if you set aside rates and FX, which are out of your control, what are the swing factors that you think are most likely to influence that outlook one way or another? .
Yes, it's a great question. So I would say, putting aside FX and interest rates. And with those 2 things, yes, I think putting them aside is fine. We talk about it in that way as well. But I would also just highlight we're in a better position today than we were 5 years ago relative to FX and interest rates. They -- we have reduced the ability of FX and interest rates to move our numbers materially from where we were 4 or 5 years ago by reducing floating rate debt, extending our maturities on the interest rate side.
And from an FX perspective, we've increased the amount of the percentage of our AFFO, our EBITDA and AFFO that comes in U.S. dollars. And we've reduced the amount that comes in foreign currency. So we are in a better position, a more stable position, a higher quality position when it comes to FX and interest rates.
If you put those aside, we expect our U.S. tower business to grow on a revenue basis mid-single digits beyond this year when we get through the DISH churn. Excluding the DISH churn this year, would be in the mid-4%, 4.5%. So we have been in that range or better, 5% are around that over the last couple of years. We think that's durable and can continue.
So a 5% revenue growth on the tower side, Europe has been growing higher than that by 100, 200 basis points. We expect that can continue. You look down into -- Africa is growing upper single digits, almost double digits now, and it has been on an FX-neutral basis. So we do think that will continue. Brazil has been lower than the normal rate of growth because of the consolidation churn primarily driven in Brazil and a few other places with Telefonica exiting some markets.
We will be beyond the kind of the trough this year. And next year, that will be returning to more normalized growth. And we expect Latin America to grow 100, a couple of hundred basis points faster than the U.S. And then in the data center business, that's growing double-digit economic growth.
So you put all that together, you've got an upper single-digit revenue growth, you drop that down to AFFO. Managing expenses, we've continued to drive margin expansion and control costs, and that gives you the ability on an AFFO, AFFO per share to grow upper single digits. That's what we expect to deliver on average over time. Doesn't mean every year you won't put on average over time. Yes, the things that can move that. Certainly, the AI inferencing that's beginning to hit data centers, they could be upside there, certainly. In the U.S., the expectation that is underpinning our outlook here is just business as usual.
If there is a fourth player, that could be very interesting if there's any government investments in networks in the U.S., which they're have been in the past, and there could be in the future, that could be upside and interesting as well.
Growth in mobile data consumption, AI applications hitting, maybe densification accelerates, if you see increases in that growth in mobile data consumption, that could be a catalyst for additional investment by the carriers and growth as well.
So I think we're in a really good position to deliver mid-single-digit -- upper mid-single-digit AFFO per share growth. As things sit today, our risks have been reduced dramatically over the last several years. So quality of earnings is higher. We're really well positioned to deliver that growth. And there are a number of catalysts that could accelerate that .
Well, that's great. Unfortunately, we're out of time, Ron, but I appreciate you being here and help us walk through the store.
Thank you for having me.
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American Tower — MoffettNathanson's Media
American Tower — MoffettNathanson's Media
AMT betont Bilanzstärke, höhere Ertragsqualität und Wachstumspotenzial durch 5G/6G‑Densifizierung sowie CoreSite‑Edge‑Chancen.
Rod Smith skizziert eine robuste Investment‑Grade‑Bilanz, gezielte Kapitalrotation in entwickelte Märkte und beschleunigte CoreSite‑Investitionen.
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Starke Investment‑Grade‑Bilanz (BBB+), reduziertes Zins‑ und Währungsrisiko und höhere Ertragsqualität; Kombination aus US‑Towers und CoreSite‑Rechenzentren schafft skalierbare Plattform für 5G/6G‑Densifizierung, AI/Edge‑Nachfrage und nachhaltiges mid‑single‑digit organisches Wachstum.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Bilanz: Zwei Rating‑Upgrades auf BBB+, weniger Floating‑Rate‑Schulden, Leverage zurück im Zielbereich (<5x) und Aktienrückkäufe von >$500 Mio.
- US‑Wachstum: U.S.‑Towers als Fundament mit erwartetem mid‑single‑digit Umsatzwachstum getrieben von Spektrumbedarf, Co‑Location und möglicher selektiver Neubautätigkeit; Sprint/DISH‑Churn als temporärer Gegenwind.
- CoreSite: CapEx deutlich erhöht (von ~ $200m auf ~ $800m p.a.), starke Pipeline, double‑digit wirtschaftliches Wachstum durch AI/Cloud‑Onramps und Edge‑Potenzial.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Keine formale Guidance‑Änderung, aber klarer Fokus auf höhere US‑Kapitalallokation und deutlich erhöhte Investitionen in CoreSite; Management bestätigt Interesse an selektivem Tower‑Build und betont laufende Litigation gegen DISH (Anspruchsdurchsetzung bleibt Priorität).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Spectrum: C‑Band/hohe Frequenzen werden zusätzliche Antennen, Radios und Densifizierung erfordern; Carrier‑Wiederverwendung möglich, aber viel Neubedarf erwartet.
- Edge/6G: Analysten bohren nach Kommerzialisierung des Edge und AMT‑Differenzierung; AMT sieht CoreSite+Towers als vorteilhafte Kombination, Geschäftsmodell noch in Entwicklung.
- DISH & Risiko: Viele Fragen zu DISH‑Vertrag, FCC‑Escrow und Auswirkungen; AMT verfolgt Klage zur Durchsetzung von Zahlungen, sieht Escrow als begrenzte Zusatzsicherheit.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Für Aktionäre bleibt AMT ein defensiver Wachstumswert: stabilere, qualitativ höhere Cashflows, gezielte Kapitalrotation in US/CoreSite und Ziel einer mid‑ bis upper‑mid‑single‑digit AFFO‑pro‑Share‑Entwicklung. Kurzfristige Risiken sind DISH‑Rechtsstreit, Ausführung beim Edge sowie makrobedingte Zins‑ und Währungseinflüsse.
American Tower — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Tower First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Spencer Kurn, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to our First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. I'm Spencer Kurn, Head of Investor Relations for American Tower. Joining me on the call today are Steve Vondran, our President and CEO; and Rod Smith, our Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for your questions.
Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our safe harbor statement. It says that some of our comments today may be forward looking. As such, they are subject to risks and uncertainties described in American Tower SEC filings, and results may differ materially. Additional information is available on our Investor Relations website.
I'll now turn the call over to Steve. Steve?
Thanks, Spencer. Good morning, everybody, and thanks for joining the call. I'm extremely pleased with our start to 2026. Our performance through the early part of the year, combined with favorable FX and straight line dynamics, led us to raise our full year outlook. The growth drivers shaping our industry continue to strengthen. Rising wireless data consumption, accelerating cloud adoption, rapidly expanding AI-driven workloads and future generational technology shifts, all point towards sustained investment and high-quality digital infrastructure. These trends are global, structural and long duration in nature, and they play directly to American Tower's core strengths.
Over the past several years, we've taken decisive steps to ensure that we're optimally positioned for this next phase of growth. We strengthened our balance sheet, refined our portfolio, shifted our capital to our developed markets and aligned our revenue base with the highest quality carriers in each of our markets. As a result, I believe that American Tower is on its strongest strategic footing in at least a decade.
Against that backdrop, I'd like to revisit the 3 strategic priorities for 2026 that I introduced last quarter, which are summarized on Slide 5 of today's presentation. First, driving durable revenue growth, including approximately 4% organic tenant billings growth across our global tower portfolio, but adjusting for onetime disrelated impacts and double-digit growth from our data center business. Our fundamental growth drivers are compounding. Mobile data consumption is growing at a rapid pace, supported by increasing smartphone penetration, continued 5G adoption, fixed wireless access and expanding enterprise use cases.
In the U.S., industry analysts project that mobile data traffic will double over the next 5 years, requiring a commensurate increase in network capacity. Notably, those projections don't fully capture the potential incremental upside from the transition to 6G or AI-enabled applications. While still early, the engineering principles guiding 6G point toward denser networks, more distributed compute and materially higher throughput requirements, each of which should translate into increased activity across our tower portfolio.
At the same time, AI investment is exploding. History suggests that technological revolutions tend to expand well beyond our initial use cases, and we expect that new AI applications are going to place meaningfully greater demands on wireless networks, both in terms of throughput and complexity. All these trends are inherently supportive macro towers. Terrestrial wireless networks are the only scalable solution capable of meeting this demand, and towers remain the most efficient, economical and flexible means of delivering network capacity, advantages that we believe will only become more pronounced over time.
These demand dynamics extend across our international footprint as well. In our European markets, mobile data traffic is expected to more than double by the end of the decade, which is expected to drive significant amendment and colocation activity. There are emerging markets, mobile data traffic is expected to nearly triple by the end of the decade, providing a long runway for growth as these less mature markets develop. Over the long term, we continue to expect our international markets, and our emerging markets in particular, to grow faster than the U.S.
These same sector tailwinds will translate into accelerating momentum at CoreSite. Demand is scaling rapidly on top of an already strong foundation, with sustained growth in hybrid and multi-cloud deployments and even sharper ramp in AI-driven workloads, including inferencing. Importantly, this quarter marked a clear inflection in interconnection activity, enhancing both the profitability of the platform and the long-term durability of customer relationships.
CoreSite continues to stand apart as a uniquely differentiated digital infrastructure platform. Positioning its convergence of network connectivity, cloud on-ramps and enterprise ecosystems, CoreSite drives resilient leasing demand while capturing a high-margin interconnection revenue stream. This powerful combination delivers structurally higher returns and positions the business to outperform traditional single-tenant hyperscale data center models, especially as demand for interconnected AI-enabled infrastructure continues to grow. After more than 4 years leading CoreSite, my conviction on the platform is stronger than ever. The business has meaningfully exceeded our expectations, and we're increasingly enthusiastic about accelerating CoreSite's expansion as a core driver of long-term value within our portfolio.
Our second strategic priority is driving operational efficiency. Operational excellence has long been a core strength of American Tower, and we continue to build on that foundation. In the first quarter, we made progress on reducing direct tower costs, particularly in areas such as land experience, maintenance, sourcing and internal technology platforms, and we remain confident in our ability to deliver 200 to 300 basis points of cash, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in our tower business by 2030. In parallel, we're evaluating how AI can further accelerate efficiency gains across the organization. We believe this opportunity represents meaningful upside in future years.
Our third strategic priority is disciplined capital allocation. We remain in a strong financial position with significant flexibility. During the quarter, we continue to prioritize growth capital toward our [indiscernible] return opportunities in our developed tower markets and at CoreSite, while also allocating capital towards share repurchases. Our capital allocation framework remains unchanged. After funding the dividend, we'll continue to evaluate a full range of options, including M&A, opportunistic share repurchases and further deleveraging, guided by a consistent mandate to generate durable cash flow growth and attractive long-term returns on invested capital.
In summary, our first quarter results reflect a company that, throughout heightened industry volatility, has emerged stronger, more focused and better positioned for the future. The long-term opportunities ahead are extraordinary, and few companies are as well positioned as American Tower to support and benefit from the next wave of digital infrastructure investment.
I'd like to thank our employees around the world for their execution and commitment, and our customers and shareholders for their continued trust.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Rod to walk through the financial results and outlook in more detail. Rod?
Thanks, Steve, and thank you all for joining the call. As Steve mentioned, we are off to a great start to the year, and our strong performance, coupled with FX and straight-line tailwinds, have led us to raise our full year outlook. I'll start by reviewing our first quarter results, and then I will touch on our revised full year outlook.
Slide 7 shows a snapshot of our first quarter highlights. Consolidated property revenue grew approximately 3% year-over-year when excluding noncash straight line revenue and FX impacts. Normalized for the impact of onetime DISH churn, property revenue grew approximately 5% on a cash FX-neutral basis. Our growth was primarily driven by organic tenant billings growth of approximately 2% or 4% normalized for the impact of onetime DISH churn and complemented by data center cash revenue growth of approximately 17%.
Adjusted EBITDA grew 1% when excluding net straight line and FX impacts. Normalized for the impact of onetime DISH churn, adjusted EBITDA grew approximately 4% on a cash FX-neutral basis. Cash adjusted EBITDA margins declined approximately 110 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to DISH-related churn, SG&A timing and higher fuel prices in Africa. Attributable AFFO per share declined approximately 1% when excluding FX impacts. Normalized for the impact of one-time DISH churn and excluding the impact of refinancing costs, attributable AFFO per share grew approximately 4% on an FX-neutral basis.
Moving to Q1 organic growth and data center growth on Slide 8. We delivered consolidated organic tenant billings growth of approximately 2% or approximately 4% when excluding DISH churn. Across our segments, organic growth was in line with the expectations we laid out earlier this year, driven by solid demand across our global portfolio.
In the U.S. and Canada, organic growth was approximately 1% and approximately 5% when excluding DISH churn. In Africa and APAC, organic growth was approximately 11%. As a reminder, churn is expected to be back half weighted, resulting in approximately 10% organic growth in the first half of the year and approximately 7% in the second half of the year. In Europe, organic growth was approximately 4%. And in Latin America, organic growth declined approximately 2%, primarily driven by elevated churn in Brazil. As discussed last quarter, the higher churn in 2026 is driven by a combination of delayed churn initially expected in 2025 and accelerated churn initially expected in 2027. Overall, we are encouraged by the prospects of an earlier-than-expected market repair in Brazil and the forthcoming acceleration in organic growth in 2027.
Finally, on the right side of the slide, organic growth in towers was complemented by data center property revenue growth of approximately 17% when excluding noncash straight-line revenue. This double-digit growth was driven by robust demand for hybrid and multi-cloud installations, accelerating AI-related use cases and an inflection in interconnection activity. We believe this inflection marks the beginning of a durable long-term trend that reinforces CoreSite's value proposition while compounding its competitive moat over time.
Now let's turn to our revised full year outlook. We are raising guidance across all of our key consolidated financial metrics, primarily due to incremental FX and straight line tailwinds. Starting with property revenue outlook on Slide 9. We are raising our outlook by approximately $145 million at the midpoint, representing a 1% increase to our prior outlook. Our revised outlook now implies approximately 3% year-over-year growth when excluding noncash straight line revenue and FX impacts.
Normalized for the impact of onetime DISH-related churn, our outlook implies approximately 5% growth on a cash FX-neutral basis. The entries to outlook was driven by approximately $110 million of FX tailwinds and approximately $35 million of accelerated noncash straight line revenue in Latin America related to Oi. We are reiterating organic growth assumptions across all regions and continue to expect organic tenant billings growth of approximately 1% or approximately 4% when excluding DISH churn and data center growth of approximately 13% year-over-year.
Moving to adjusted EBITDA on Slide 10. We are raising our adjusted EBITDA outlook by approximately $105 million at the midpoint, representing a 1% increase to our prior outlook. Our revised outlook now implies approximately 2% growth year-over-year, excluding noncash net straight line and FX impacts. Normalized for the onetime impact of DISH-related churn, our outlook for adjusted EBITDA implies approximately 5% growth on a cash FX-neutral basis.
Turning to AFFO on Slide 11. We are raising our attributable AFFO outlook by $0.12 per share, representing a 1% increase to our prior outlook. Our revised outlook now implies growth of approximately 2% year-over-year. Normalized for the impact of onetime DISH-related churn and excluding the impact of refinancing costs, our outlook for attributable AFFO per share growth implies approximately 5% growth on an FX-neutral basis. We expect attributable AFFO per share growth on an FX-neutral basis to be faster in the back half of the year than the front half, primarily due to the timing of maintenance capital and cash taxes compared to the prior year periods.
As a reminder, we continue to expect our services business growth and debt refinancings to each represent an approximately 100 basis point headwind to attributable AFFO per share growth this year. We continue to believe that we are well positioned to deliver our goal of industry-leading attributable AFFO per share growth and compelling total shareholder returns over the long term.
Turning to capital allocation and our balance sheet on Slide 12, we remain disciplined stewards of capital. Our investment-grade balance sheet is well positioned for a variety of macroeconomic scenarios. As Steve mentioned, over the past few years, we have taken deliberate action to reduce risk in our business. As a result, today, we have the lowest leverage and the highest credit rating across our peer group, positioning us with exceptional financial flexibility going forward. Our capital allocation framework remains focused on maintaining financial flexibility, protecting our investment-grade credit profile and investing prudently to enhance long-term shareholder value.
In 2026, our growth capital plan remains consistent with our prior outlook. We continue to expect to spend approximately 85% of our discretionary capital within our developed markets platforms, including over $700 million in success-based investments in our data center portfolio to replenish elevated levels of capacity, purchases of land beneath our tower sites and continued acceleration in European new builds, with over 700 new sites planned.
Additionally, we repurchased approximately $184 million of American Tower stock during the first quarter plus an additional $19 million through April 21, bringing our total share repurchases, since we started buying back stock in Q4, to over $565 million.
Turning to Slide 13 and in closing, we are off to a strong start in 2026, reflecting the fundamental strength and durability of our business model. Continued growth in mobile data consumption, together with strong demand for our interconnection-rich data center platform, supports a long and attractive runway of growth for American Tower. With our best-in-class portfolio of towers and data centers, combined with a strong balance sheet, we are well positioned to capture these opportunities and deliver on our objective of industry-leading attributable AFFO per share growth.
And with that, operator, we can open the line for questions.
[Operator Instructions] and wait for your name to be announced. Our first question comes from the line of Rick Prentiss of Raymond James & Associates.
2. Question Answer
A couple of questions. First, the Spectrum deal between EchoStar DISH and AT&T seems to be going very slowly. It feels to us like there's some issues in Washington. We're hearing that maybe one of the request is that escrow be set up with all the litigation and negotiation between the tower industry and EchoStar DISH. Can you update us on -- is that maybe one of the paths you're taking? And any other updates on what could be interesting process.
Yes, Rick, this is Steve. We really can't comment on ongoing litigation or anything that's kind of going on in that space today. So we don't really have any updates for you guys on DISH. I'll just reiterate, we believe our contract is enforceable. We're continuing to defend it and core -- the litigation public. And you guys have access to that docket to see what's happening on that front. And we've completely derisked our earnings and our guidance by taking DISH out of our numbers. So anything that happened in that space is incremental upside to the guidance we've put out there. So at this time, there's really not much more we can say about that.
Okay. We'll keep monitoring and checking our Washington sources as well.
Second question, Rod, you mentioned 700 new builds in Europe, 85% of your CapEx has been developed areas. What's -- because obviously, 9%, I think, inorganic growth in Europe. Walk us through what's happening there in Europe? What kind of -- what's the model there? There's been concern in the U.S. that when we see new builds, some of them have been uneconomic that others have done, not you guys. But walk us through what the opportunity is in Europe, what the contracts kind of look like and what the return profile might be there?
Yes. I think, Rick, you've heard us say in the past that the European market is outperforming the original business case that we underwrote the Telefonica deal with. So we've been very pleased with the results. We've had upper single-digit growth rates across the region for a couple of years. That has moderated down into the mid-single-digit growth rate, but it's still a very compelling growth rate for such a high-quality set of economies.
With the Telefonica deal, you may recall, we also announced at that time that we had a contract to build 3,000 sites of Telefonica over the next 10 years, starting at the beginning of that acquisition, that contract. So we've been executing on that. We've added a few additional build-to-suits with other carriers across the region. So building something in that market, we think, is a pretty compelling thing to do. And of course, the return profile is -- we expect it to be above our weighted average cost of capital in that region by a couple of hundred basis points over time.
But the secular trends in Europe are very similar to the U.S., which is technology evolution, rolling out 5G networks, eventually, they'll push into 6G networks. There are new applications coming just like there will be in the U.S. that will drive mobile data consumption growth across the region. So again, we are in some of the greatest economies, not only in Europe but also in the world there with very compelling assets supporting some of the top-tier customers, including Telefonica, in a big way. So continuing to build sites and reinvesting some of the cash flow that we derive out of the Europe market back into the market as build-to-suits, we think is a really compelling thing to do to drive total shareholder return.
So the market is solid, like any region across the world that we're in. We will continue to watch the outlook and the growth rates and the political trends, the regulatory trends, the market backdrop, we'll continue to watch that and be prudent every step of the way as we go forward. But at the moment, the market is performing very well and above our original expectations. So we're happy with it.
Rick, I would just add that we are also winning some things that are outside the contract on very good terms because of our operational excellence. In Europe, a lot of the sites being built are difficult to build. And when they're difficult to build, the carriers value a good operator who can bring things online quickly and get through that kind of regulatory scenario. So we're winning business at healthy returns for us because of our operational excellence there.
And again, in the U.S., as you noted, we haven't been building actively. A lot of those sites have been built in areas that aren't as hard to build. And we think that if we get back to where we're building things in hard-to-build areas, we've got advantage back in the U.S. as well. So we're excited about the prospect of building more sites everywhere in our developed markets.
And the return hurdles would be a couple of hundred basis points? Or what were you saying about it because obviously, we've seen some others that have stressed the thoughts of what you should build or not build.
I mean I would say, Rick, from a return hurdle perspective, I don't want to get into the details here, but certainly, being above our weighted average cost of capital by a couple of hundred basis points over a reasonable amount of time, and I'm not going to get into the details in terms of the terms, that really is what we would expect based on just the fundamentals of the market and the investment that we're making.
But with that said, longer term, can it be well above that? Absolutely very similar to what we see in the U.S., where we will build an asset -- we don't build a lot at the moment. We have in the past. You may start out at or even slightly below your weighted average cost of capital. In the near term, you get up to that weighted average cost of capital and get above that, which might be in the upper single-digit growth rate. But over time, with compounding results on the escalator and the new business you can get up into the teens in the U.S., we would expect certainly that direction for Europe new builds over the long term.
Yes. Just to be clear, Rick, I didn't build stuff in bad economics previously. We're not going to start doing that. We're going to build things that make sense over time.
Great. Makes sense. We like that third pillar of capital allocation discipline.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins of Citi.
Steve, you mentioned that M&A is a possible option for capital allocation. I'm curious if you could describe how you're looking at those opportunities today, whether that's similarly or differently than the way you may have looked at this in the past. And if you could specifically comment on the possibilities of AMT participating in either a public to public or a public to private opportunities in the United States.
And then, Rod, if I could just throw in one other question. So on Slide 11, that shows the normalized AFFO per share growth plus some of the specific factors that are weighing on 2026. How should this inform investors after 2026, what the right range of annual AFFO per share expectation should be?
Sure, Mike. So I'll start with your question on M&A. We have a very disciplined capital allocation formula that we followed for a long time here, and we're not changing the way we think about that. We look at everything through the lens of how do we create the best long-term shareholder value at the best risk-adjusted rates of return that we can get. And so we do some pretty detailed financial modelings on everything that we look at in that space.
And as you can imagine, we have an M&A team, they like to buy stuff. So we look at everything. There's not a process out there that we haven't had our toes dip in the water to see what that looks like. And in the past few years, we haven't found compelling opportunities to do that. We're hopeful as we go forward that there are things that would make sense. But for any M&A scenario, you've got to have a willing counterparty, a constructive regulatory environment and the economics have to make sense.
And so we'll continue to evaluate all the opportunities in front of us. And that's whether it's in the U.S., in another developed market, in the data center space. Whatever comes available, we'll look at those M&A opportunities. And if we think that we can create shareholder value over time with those, we'll participate. But we're not going to be reactive to specific market trends that are out there. We're not -- we have enough scale in our business today. There's no sort of strategic imperative to overpay for anything. So we're not going to do anything that doesn't make sense economically. But we are hopeful that we're seeing a more active environment and we're hopeful that we can participate in that in some manner, but it may not work out, and it may. We'll just have to see what fits in with our disciplined capital allocation and what's going to create the best long-term shareholder value for you guys.
Michael, thanks for joining the call. On your AFFO question, on Slide 11, we're showing a revised outlook that's about $10.99. That reflects a 2% reported growth rate year-over-year. Embedded within that is tailwinds of about 200 basis points from FX. It also has about 100 basis points of headwind for net interest, and within that includes 400 basis points of headwind due to the DISH churn. So there's a few pieces in there, a few moving pieces, but I think most of those notes are highlighted right on the slide there. So I would encourage everyone to kind of piece that together.
This outlook for 2026 is in line with our longer-term view for AFFO per share growth, which is up in the mid-single digits to better than mid-single digits before you account for the impacts of FX and interest rates, whether those are tailwinds or headwinds, quite frankly. So we will get through the event-driven churn from DISH. And again, that's 400 basis points of churn. So that 200 basis points would go up to about 6% growth just adjusted for the impacts of churn. You take off the 200 basis points of tailwind from FX, that drops you back down to the 4% range. You remove the 1% headwind that we're picking up from interest rates and you get to 5%. So we're right in the -- maybe the lower end of that longer-term range, which is mid-single digits to upper single digit AFFO and AFFO per share growth rate over time.
And we really do feel as though we've moved through a number of event-driven headwinds not only in the industry for us specifically, and we are moving into a time where we will benefit from the secular technology trends within the sector, that continuation of mobile data capital investment from the carriers, which we still see very stable, strong in that $30 billion to $35 billion range. The carriers continue to roll out their 5G networks kind of at the tail end of that. They'll move into filling in, densifying, increasing capacity across the network. That will all be good for us. New applications will come down the pike. And some will be driven by AI. And those should all fuel that secular trend of growth, which should be very constructive in terms of supporting us and our business to that mid- to upper single-digit AFFO per share growth.
And in addition to all of that, Steve and I and the entire management team continue to stay very focused on cost management, direct costs, SG&A, smart capital allocation, very strong balance sheet management to make sure that all those pieces as well support and contribute to achieving our ambition of mid- to upper single-digit AFFO and AFFO per share growth.
Our next question comes from the line of Eric Luebchow of Wells Fargo.
Great. Appreciate it. I just wanted to touch on the CoreSite business. So one of your peers was talking about doing some early exploration on the mobile edge. And given your ownership of CoreSite and this theme that you've been looking at for several years, curious if there's any update you could provide on whether you think there's a real market that could develop there in the next couple of years?
And then separately on CoreSite, just curious, given it's a relatively small part of the business today, and data center multiples seem to be very high, demand seems to be off the charts. So do you think longer term, CoreSite makes sense within the American Tower family? Or could there be something strategic that you would do with it to potentially maximize value?
Yes, thanks for the question. We're really encouraged to hear other people talking about the Edge. It's something that we believe partially in for a period of time now. And we do continue to have projects ongoing. We launched our data center in Raleigh as a little bit of a playground for people to come in and experiment with Edge. We are looking at incremental opportunities in that space to continue to work with ecosystem partners to develop the Edge. And what I'm most excited about is our wireless carriers are now talking about the Edge. They're engaging in discussions with chip makers and some of the cloud companies.
So Edge is absolutely something that we think is going to continue to grow. We think it's going to be a material opportunity for us in the future. Timing, I'm not going to predict timing again because I was a little bit off my first time predicting it. But we do see a lot of momentum taking shape in that space. So we're very excited about the opportunities. And we think that we're positioned better than anyone else to provide the basic infrastructure that you need to support Edge in various forms that it may evolve, whether it's AI RAN, whether it's smaller regional data centers that are supporting more inferencing, which is what we're hearing is one of the use cases. We're in a great place to do that when you combine that interconnection ecosystem at CoreSite with our distributed land footprint and our abilities to service massively distributed real estate.
So we're excited about the Edge opportunity. We continue to work through it. I don't have a projection for you yet because we're still in the early stages of how this is going to develop. But the momentum is there and all the people that are talking about it really reinforces our original thesis on that. And that's really why CoreSite is a strategically important asset for us. We do think it's a big part of our future, and we think that we're going to realize that synergy between towers and data centers.
And in the meantime, we're going to continue to grow that company. It's performing well beyond our expectations when we underwrote that acquisition. And the tailwinds that are underpinning the growth in CoreSite are durable. And AI is one them, but it's not the only tailwind there. This highly interconnected ecosystem that we have there is different from most of the "data center" companies out there. I don't even like calling it a data center, to be honest, because it's really an interconnection hub.
People come to us to connect to other people. They put their computer in a CoreSite facility because we give them access to other enterprises, the cloud on-ramps, and now to inferencing instances. So that kind of -- that's a nerve center for this rapidly developing kind of digital ecosystem out there, and it's going to continue to grow. So we're very excited about that as a part of our company. I do think it has a long-term place in our portfolio. And we think that the Edge will kind of finalize the synergies between the 2. But in the meantime, we're going to focus on growing our tower business, which has great tailwinds, as Rod mentioned, and we're going to focus on growing CoreSite and being that interconnection provider of choice as this ecosystem continues to develop.
Our next question comes from the line of Jim Schneider of Goldman Sachs.
In light of what you just talked about in terms of the -- some of the attractive growth prospects for emerging markets and overseas developed markets and maybe given some of the recent headwinds you've seen in terms of churn in the U.S., can you maybe kind of give us your latest thoughts about the relative attractiveness of M&A prospects across Europe, U.S. and emerging markets? Just wanted -- an impact, you talked about the U.S. being probably your preference in terms of an any potential skill acquisition. I'm wondering if you still see those pluses and minuses in the same way as you did before?
Yes. Thanks, Jim. The U.S. continues to be our flagship market, and we love the opportunity to add scale here, again, subject to the right terms and conditions and economics and things like that. So yes, the U.S. will probably always be our primary focus, if there are opportunities there. There haven't been that many recently that met all of our criteria.
Europe is a market that we continue to look at. And we've talked in the past about how patient we were to get into that market because of the terms and conditions that were required by us to show long-term growth for our shareholders. We're still not seeing a ton of opportunities there for incremental M&A that meet those criteria. There are things that are happening in Europe, but they're not things that we find long-term attractive at this point. So we'll keep looking at it. Like I said before, we have M&A people, they're looking at everything. And if we found something there, that would be on the table.
In the emerging markets, and I just want to reiterate this. While those markets are a key component of our portfolio and they're going to give us outsized growth over time, the strategic decision that we made 2 years ago has not changed. And that is, we think they should be a smaller piece of our overall portfolio than they've been in the past, and we will continue to allocate capital toward developed markets away from those markets, not because we don't believe the growth. We do believe in the growth. They are doing well. They are incremental to our U.S. growth, and we think that's their function in the portfolio. But if they become too large of a part of the portfolio when there are macroeconomic shocks, it just puts a little bit too much volatility into the earnings.
So we're not going to change our strategic direction just because some of the short-term dynamics have changed. We still think the best opportunity to create long-term shareholder value is to continue to invest in the U.S. and other developed markets. And we'll continue to see the secular tailwinds driving growth in that business for a long period of time. And then the emerging markets are a complement to that.
And I'm so proud of our teams. They've managed through a lot of adversity in there. They're the best operators on both of the continents that we're operating in there. They're getting some great sales results in Africa. The Latin America team has worked through this kind of reset repair, and they're on a great trajectory to get back to growth for us. So I'm very excited about what the teams have been able to do there, but we're not going to change our strategic direction in terms of how we're investing.
Our next question comes from the line of Nick Del Deo of MoffettNathanson.
I guess first, to build on the domestic new build activity commentary you provided in response to Rick's question earlier, it appears there is this comment that the carriers might be more interested in working with our large public tower company partners to undertake more new construction opportunities. I was wondering if you've had any similar discussions and if you think they might amount to anything?
And then second, Steve, you talked about the importance of interconnection a moment ago. Cloud on-ramps have always been a very important part of that, strengthen those ecosystems. Can you talk about any steps you might be taking to proactively land neo cloud on-ramps or other deployments like that, that may be magnetic for AI workloads over the coming years?
Sure. So when it comes to the kind of the build-to-suit market in the U.S., we're always talking to our customers about that. We have been for years even when the competitive environment was tough. It's a core competency that we've always had and we used to be one of the largest builders of towers in the U.S. So we think that there's an opportunity there as people become more rational on the economics. There's nothing to announce at this point. I will tell you that we're -- my sales team has always been there pitching those, and we're hopeful something comes through. And if and when it does, we'll let you guys know. But until there's -- until a deal is done, it's not done. So I wouldn't prematurely talk about that.
When it comes to the interconnection on ramps, one of the things that was a core strength in CoreSite before we bought them, and we think it's gotten even more advanced since we've been working with them, is the ability to curate an ecosystem. And it's not just about the cloud on ramps. It's about making sure that you balance networks, enterprises and those cloud providers. And now you've got this kind of fourth category that you mentioned, which is inferencing hubs, and you've got other ecosystem players like neo cloud that are providing kind of services into that.
And so what the team is very skilled at doing and they continue to do is making sure that we're creating an ecosystem where everybody wants to be there. Our problem is not demand. All of those players want to come into our facilities. And the reason that we attract cloud on ramps, the reason we attract inferencing is because we're bringing their customers to them. And we're providing space for their customers to house their data and interconnect natively to those cloud on ramps and those inferencing hubs.
And so for us, it's really about keeping that balance and not getting too excited about a trend and not just trying to sell out a building a second that goes online to the highest bidder. It's about curating an ecosystem that gives us this long-term competitive moat around our business. And because of that, the vast majority of our revenue is with providers who are interconnected to 5 or more other people.
Now that may have hundreds of interconnections, but 5 or more other people, that makes that whole ecosystem very sticky. It means that if there are downturns and -- in that kind of sector over time, that will be much more inflated than anybody else is for that because of the way we've carried the ecosystem. And so the team is very focused on continuing to build that. The inferencing hubs and the neo clouds are absolutely part of that ecosystem, and they're knocking on our doors. They want to be there. And our team is able to be selective and curate that right customer mix. And I'm confident that we will continue to be a leading interconnection provider and that we will be the provider of choice for all of those use cases over time.
And Nick, I may add just a quick comment on our services business to complement Steve's answer on the U.S. new business. And just to really remind folks that our services business has been very active in the last several years. We had record-setting levels of service revenue last year at the $340 million range. Over the last several years, we've expanded our end-to-end solutions through acquisitions, owning, permitting and even construction management. We've got over 40 -- almost 43,000 sites across the -- across the U.S. with a very distributed services business and hundreds of people that support that business. And this year, we're going to have our third highest revenue year ever, so that business is still very robust. And there's a lot of capability there that directly translate into our ability to effectively and efficiently do large-scale bills for carriers if and when we get that opportunity. So we're really well positioned from an operational standpoint to move quickly on any kind of an opportunity like that.
A good point, Rod. I hope our customers are listening to that.
Yes.
Our next question comes from the line of Madison Rezaei of Bernstein.
I just wanted to build on the prior M&A question here with a slightly different angle. Obviously not going to ask you to comment on any of the specifics, but how do you think about private and/or sort of consolidated portfolios in the U.S. shifting any competitive dynamics, if at all?
I don't think it actually changes the competitive dynamic. There have been a number of privately held scaled tower portfolios in the U.S. for years. And so we haven't seen that affect the competitive dynamic at all in the tower space. It doesn't change the way we operate, hasn't changed our results or our ability to compete. So we don't think that having more private tower companies affects that.
I think what it does reflect is that there's a disconnect, and there has been for years, and the multiples that private players will value towers out versus the public markets. And we really think the reason that they value them at a higher multiple and have for a period of time is they're taking a long-term view. They see past some of the short-term noise that's out there. And they see these long-term demand drivers that encourage us about our business. They see that mobile data growth is going to double over the next 5 years in the U.S., and that's going to require more network investment, which translates into new business for towers. They realize that AI is an incremental use case that's not even factored into those projections that could be a catalyst for even more growth and could be pretty substantial growth, depending on how that evolves over time. They're looking at the fact that 6G is just around the corner and that the 6G frequencies are likely to be in the 6 to 7 gigahertz range, which means much more [ DISH ] networks are going to be required.
So when I look at kind of what's swirling around out there in the ether, about tower companies in our private world, it's encouraging to me to see that people are seeing the true value of towers and the fact that this is a growing long-term business that will be the backbone of digital infrastructure going forward. And so when I hear the rumors and see what's out there, to me, that just shows that the business model is still the best business model out there. It's still a place to create a lot of long-term value for our shareholders. It's the right place for us to be.
Our next question comes from the line of Cameron McVeigh of Morgan Stanley.
I just wanted to actually follow up on CoreSite. And I'm curious how you're thinking about expanding capacity at CoreSite versus reinvesting in retrofitting some of the current sites. And has your approach to expanding CoreSite capacity changed at all given some of the current supply-demand imbalance dynamics we hear about with regard to power and tight supply chains?
Sure. A few years ago, we had to start thinking a lot longer term about both land acquisition, power acquisition and actually even ordering the components that go into it. We had some supply chain disruption as a result of COVID. And because of that, the team started taking a longer-term view. And that's put us in a really good position for where we are today. And we've had more construction over the past couple of years than at any time in CoreSite history.
Because of the record sales we've had in the past few years, we've also really ramped up our capabilities to build more. So yes, we're being more aggressive. We're out buying more land, and we are looking at some new market entries. Nothing that we want to announce yet because it's premature to do that until you have a good idea about when you're going to break ground on it. But we think there are opportunities there.
We've also looked at retrofitting some buildings. We have retrofitted some computer rooms. Sometimes that makes sense and sometimes it doesn't. But with higher density applications coming in, if you have the available power there, it can make sense to retrofit a computer room and take up the density levels in it. So that is something that we've looked at. We have done a little bit of that in the past. And we are designing our new facilities with more flexibility in the future to go higher density with multiple different cooling options in it as well. So we have altered the way that we build new sites and the way that we're looking for it.
We've also looked at some existing buildings that have available power. And so you've seen us buy a couple of small ones in that space, and that's something that could be a strategy for us going forward to accelerate some of the development that we'd like to do. But we feel very good about the pipeline we have just kind of organically to build within our existing footprint, and we think there's some opportunities [indiscernible] the market. So overall, again, that business is performing so well. It's some of the highest returns that we can get on invested capital today, and it's continuing to grow rapidly. So we're excited about it, and we're going to continue to invest in it.
Cameron, I would just add to Steve's comments here as he talks about our investment in land and additional power across our existing campuses, just to put a little bit finer detail on that if the -- last year, we had about 287, 280 megawatts of development held for development, and we've increased that by 200 megawatts. So that's where we're negotiating with power companies, securing that power in certain places, buying land and banking that land for additional development where we can expand campuses. So we are really well positioned to continue to lean into the demand across our footprint.
Our next question comes from the line of Brendan Lynch of Barclays.
Rod, I appreciate all the color on the long-term AFFO per share growth outlook. You also mentioned an earlier return to normal in Brazil. Can you give us some color on what that actually looks like in terms of potential coloc and amendment growth and cancellations?
Yes, absolutely. So I think everyone is familiar with where we are in Latin America. We are experiencing a higher level of churn this year. It's around 8% contribution to our organic tenant billings growth. That -- I'll highlight a couple of things, and I think I said this in my prepared remarks, but probably worth highlighting. That includes delaying some churn from '25 into '26 and also accelerating some churn, particularly on the oil side from '27 into '26. So we do think that the market there is peaking in terms of the churn that we would expect.
We also have in -- a couple of hundred basis points of new business across the region. And that's a function of consolidation needing some of the markets that we're in across Latin America have been fragmented, including Brazil in the past, which we've seen the consolidation that we've worked through there. So with all that kind of put together, you end up with negative organic tenant billings growth for 2026. But because we're accelerating some of the churn from '27 into '26 and we've gotten through some of this market repair and consolidation across the region. And most importantly, in Brazil itself, we do expect to get back to accelerated organic tenant billings growth into '27.
So moving from a negative OTBG into positive territory in the lower single digit to '27 and returning to kind of the expectation of normalized growth by the time we get out to '28 and beyond. But we do think that it is the beginning seeing much better results across Latin America as there are a rational number of carriers, 3 solid well-capitalized carriers in Brazil, and going forward, kind of the absence of this consolidation churn really sets us up well to get back to normal organic tenant billings growth and a normal new business contribution kind of across that region to organic tenant billings growth.
Yes. I would just highlight that the 3 carriers in Brazil have all talked about investing more in their networks. We're absolutely seeing an increase in demand across the ecosystem there. So we're seeing the acceleration in new business applications in Brazil. So we're seeing that market repair take place, and we're excited about the prospect of Latin America being accretive to the U.S. growth rates over time, and we believe that we're on track to see that start happening, as Rod said, '28 and beyond.
Yes. And maybe I would just highlight right there. I mean, Steve talked about the Latin America being accretive to our overall AFFO per share growth rates. I'll just take a step back and remind everyone of our -- the bits and pieces of our longer-term AFFO per share growth rate expectation, which is solid mid-single-digit growth in the U.S. market, probably better than that across the Europe market. That would be driven by a mid-single-digit organic tenant billings growth in the U.S., probably slightly higher in Europe, complemented by good cost controls in managing the expenses down the line.
And then CoreSite double-digit growth, that's accretive to those growth rates. You look at the emerging markets, Africa is growing double digits. That's very accretive to the overall growth rates. Returning Latin America to normalized growth will also be accretive there. And that's how you get down to an AFFO and AFFO per share growth rate that will be in the mid-single digits or upper single digits. And of course, complemented by a strong balance buys, very smart capital allocation, whether it is driving the dividend, which I think you all know, we've got 5% growth for Q1 on the dividend. We expect that growth rate to be in line on average with our AFFO per share growth rate. So again, a mid-single-digit growth rate on the dividend, investing $1.5 billion to $2 billion in CapEx.
And then looking at accretive M&A from time to time, where we see good opportunities and also balancing paying down debt, reducing our overall leverage further than the 4.9x that we ended this last quarter and also buying back shares. And based on my prepared remarks, I think you all know we bought back about $184 million worth of shares in Q1. That is in addition to what we did in Q4, which you put the 2 together, you're up well over $560 million devoted towards share buybacks. And that helps support that mid- to upper mid-single-digit growth rate on AFFO and AFFO per share going forward.
Great. Very helpful. Maybe just one other kind of quick one on the data centers. There are some press reports out there about DC construction being delayed in North Carolina. Seems there's a kind of growing wave of [ nimbyism ] across the country. Can you just talk about how you're kind of handling some of those restrictions?
Yes. I mean unfortunately, we are seeing an increase in that. And for me, it's very reminiscent of my early days in tower. And one of the things that I did as a [ baby ] lawyer was permitting towers. And so it's a very similar phenomenon to that, and we're attacking it the same way. This is one of those synergies that may not be as apparent between the 2 companies, but we're using our government affairs team from American Tower our and our zoning and permitting team from American Tower to help the CoreSite team deal with that and also to help the data center coalition who's also attacking that from an industry perspective.
And so we think we have a long track record of being able to work with communities and finding ways to address those concerns. And we're very confident that our team is able to tackle that as well as anybody in the industry can. But it is certainly something that's taking a little bit of airtime in the news and on social media, and it's something we're very aware of. At this point, it hasn't been an issue for us where we've had the scrap any projects or having significant delays. And so we believe we can navigate through that, but we're going to continue to work with the industry partners and our internal teams to make sure that it doesn't get worse.
Our next question comes from the line of David Barden of New Street Research.
I guess I'll just ask it, right? What does it mean if SBA gets taken private? And how important is the multiple that they get taken private at? And if it's low, does that mean maybe you stop buying back stock; if it's high, do you start buying back more aggressively? Or do you start thinking about maybe taking parts of your portfolio and taking those private or selling them to private entities? I just -- I think it would be great to have you guys as the biggest tower company in the United States kind of just weigh in on what that means for everybody.
And then I guess the second is, last week, SpaceX had a 3-day kind of diligence meeting, I guess the buy-side guys, sell-side guys are there. We're not investment banks, so we don't get involved in that. But some people are walking away from that meeting and the road show that's beginning, and thinking that one of the growth vectors to support a multitrillion dollar valuation is disrupting the terrestrial wireless market. And so give us your perspectives on both of those would be super helpful.
Sure. On the SBA question, we're not going to comment on the rumors that are out there and any of the valuations that may be rumored to be out there. That's going to be what it's going to be. And we don't run our business based on what other people are doing with their business. When we think about our business and how we create the most long-term shareholder value, we're always looking at portfolio optimization. And the dislocation between public and private multiples is not something that's new. It's something that's been out there before. And you've seen us take decisive action when we think that we can create more value by selling something than by holding it. And we're always evaluating all the different opportunities in the portfolio, and we'll continue to do that. And like I said, we're going to figure out what creates the most long-term shareholder value.
We believe that we have a lot of secular tailwinds driving growth in this industry. We believe that our portfolio is going to continue to grow and that we can deliver that mid- to high single-digit AFFO per share growth with our combined portfolio of our -- kind of the whole company here over time, and we believe that, that's going to drive a lot of shareholder value beyond where we are today. And so that's how we look at the industry piece of it.
And in terms of our share buyback, we're doing our own calculations on what we think is going to drive value over time on that. And it's not really going to be influenced that much by what other people are doing in this space. We're going to continue to make our decisions based on our business, our growth prospects and what we think the right thing to do is. So like everybody else, we'll watch the market and see what happens, but we're going to continue to kind of the independent thinkers in terms of how we create value over time.
In terms of the satellite piece of it -- and look, we've answered this question a bunch of times and I'll just repeat, we have a front row seat to this space. We have a Board seat with [ ASP ]. That's why we made the investment that we made in ASP. Satellites are complementary to terrestrial networks. We said it, other tower companies have said it, the carriers have said it, most of the satellite companies themselves have said it. We don't see anything that changes that.
Now in the very ultra rural areas, it may be a better solution. But we don't have towers. We have a tiny, tiny number of towers in those areas. And quite frankly, they're not the top-performing towers in the portfolio. So if it does disintermediate a handful of towers, you're not even going to notice it. So from our business perspective, I don't lose a second fleet worried about satellites. I'm actually encouraged by satellite. It's going to provide ubiquitous coverage. It will enable some of the capabilities that they're talking about for 6G, which is going to continue to give new use cases to our customers, things that you can't do when you have a network that has holes in it. So I think the satellite story is going to play out over time. It's going to be a big positive for our carrier customers. That means it's going to be a big positive for us. And I think the short-term noise that people are hearing about this is just displaced.
This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to thank everyone for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect.
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American Tower — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
American Tower — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
American Tower hebt die 2026-Guidance leicht an, betont CoreSite‑Momentum und sieht DISH‑Churn als kurzfristes, nicht in der Guidance enthaltetes Risiko.
Starkes Q1 mit organischem Mietumsatzwachstum, double-digit Data‑Center‑Wachstum und aktiver Kapitalrückführung; Management bleibt wachstums‑ und margenfokussiert.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Property Revenue: +3% YoY (exkl. noncash straight‑line und FX); ~+5% cash FX‑neutral exkl. einmaligem DISH‑Churn.
- Organic Growth: Tenant billings ~2% (≈4% exkl. DISH); U.S. ~1% (≈5% exkl. DISH), Africa/APAC ~11%.
- Data Center: CoreSite cash‑Revenue +≈17% (exkl. noncash straight‑line), deutliche Interconnection‑Inflection.
- Profitabilität: Adjusted EBITDA +1% (excl. straight‑line/FX); Cash‑Adj. EBITDA‑Marge −110 bp YoY, teils DISH‑Effekt.
- AFFO: Attributable AFFO/sh ~$10.99 nach Anhebung; reported −1% exkl. FX, ~+4% FX‑neutral exkl. DISH und Refinanzierungskosten.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Wachstumsfokus: Fortschreibung der drei Prioritäten 2026: durables Umsatzwachstum (Tür zu Tür: Turmportfolio + Data‑Center), mit CoreSite als Wachstumshebel.
- Operative Effizienz: Kostensenkungen bei direkten Turmkosten; Ziel: +200–300 bp Cash‑Adj. EBITDA‑Marge im Turmgeschäft bis 2030.
- Kapitalallokation: Diszipliniert: 85% CapEx in entwickelten Märkten, >$700M für CoreSite‑Investitionen, aktiver Rückkauf (Q1 ~$184M; >$565M seit Q4) und Dividendenschutz.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Guidance‑Anhebung: Property‑Outlook +$145M (Midpoint, ≈+1%); Adjusted EBITDA +$105M; AFFO/sh +$0.12 auf ≈$10.99.
- Wachstumserwartung: Konsolidiertes Property‑Revenue ≈+3% YoY (exkl. straight‑line/FX); normalisiert ≈+5% cash FX‑neutral exkl. DISH; Data‑Center ≈+13% YoY.
- Risiken: DISH‑Churn ist ein einmaliger Gegenwind (~400 bp auf AFFO), FX‑Effekte (~+200 bp) und Zinskosten (~−100 bp) beeinflussen das Jahresbild.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- DISH/Litigation: Analysten fragten nach Prozess‑Status; Management äußerte sich nicht inhaltlich und betont, dass DISH‑Effekte aus Guidance entfernt sind (Upside, falls positiv).
- CoreSite & Edge: Nachfrage nach Edge/Interconnection; Management sieht klare Inflection, investiert in Fläche, Power und curated cloud on‑ramps.
- M&A & Buybacks: Nachfrage nach Opportunitäten; Antwort: disziplinierter, ergebnisorientierter M&A‑Ansatz, U.S. bevorzugt; Buybacks werden wirtschaftlich bewertet.
⚡ Bottom Line
Leichte Guidance‑Anhebung plus starke CoreSite‑Dynamik bestätigen den langfristigen Wachstumsrahmen (mid‑ bis upper‑single‑digit AFFO/sh). Kurzfristige Schwankungen durch DISH‑Churn und LatAm‑Churn bleiben zu beachten; strategische Prioritäten (Wachstum, Effizienz, Kapitaldisziplin) sind klar und unterstützen die Aktionärsrendite auf längere Sicht.
American Tower — Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. My name is Benjamin Goy. I'm an equity analyst here at Deutsche Bank, and I'm very pleased to be joined this morning by Rod Smith, American Tower's CFO. Thanks for being here Rod.
Welcome, Ben. Thanks for having me, and welcome. Good morning, everyone.
You reported 4Q earnings a couple of weeks ago. Looking back to 2025, what were some of the highlights? And what are some of the key areas of focus for American Tower in 2026?
Yes. We had a great 2025. I would say at the outset, we are making a lot of progress on our strategic priorities that we've laid out in the past. So I'll highlight a few of the economic accomplishments for the year.
Most notably, on an as adjusted basis, we grew AFFO per share by about 8%. So upper single digits there, very happy with that. We also expanded margins, partly supported by our focus on efficiency and cost controls around the globe, certainly -- we are -- we invested almost a little less than $2 billion up in the $1.8 billion range, and we are putting that capital increasingly into the developed markets. That includes towers in the U.S., towers in Europe and our data center platform in the U.S.
Our data center platform continues to perform exceptionally well, growing in the double-digit range. Our tower business globally as well as in the U.S. and Europe on a organic tenant billings growth basis is in the mid-single digits, has been kind of solidly there. So things are performing very well from that perspective. Yes, so we couldn't be more pleased with the way 2025 rolled out and our focus going forward is continue to maximize the organic growth across the assets we have globally. And we focus on that every day of the week, driving efficiency through the business and continuing to expand margins priority for us, certainly. And then being very smart and disciplined when it comes to allocating capital, allocating capital in a risk-adjusted way that gives our investors the highest returns over time.
And in the environment that we're in today, we certainly look at that and say putting more capital into the U.S. through towers and data centers is mission-critical, maybe priority #1 from our capital perspective and continues to divest and develop the business we have in Europe.
That's a great overview, and we're definitely going to hit on a few of those topics. But starting in the U.S., the big 3 carriers seem to be reaching their 5G coverage targets after several years of robust activity. What are you seeing the carriers invest in today? And how would you characterize the demand environment in the U.S. as we think about 2026?
Yes, the demand environment is healthy. You saw us come off at '25 with a very robust record-setting level of services that really underpins the amount of activity that we've seen across our towers, certainly.
Yes, the carriers have made great progress in deploying mid-band spectrum across their networks and transitioning to 5G. There's a little bit more work to do there. So we're seeing that kind of play out. Growth in mobile data continues to be in the 30%, 35% range. We expect that to continue. That means carriers will be focused on beyond getting their networks 5G equipment deployed they will be focusing on the quality of the coverage and eventually the density of the network.
So we do see a path forward where the carriers will continue to roll out 5G. And then they will come back through and increase the quality of the networks by continuing to invest in it. They'll be investing in it through amendment in order to keep up with growing demand across the networks that they have. And then eventually, they'll shift most likely to densifying the network. We're seeing an uptick in co-locations, the number of new installations on new towers that they're not already on. That's a form of kind of expanding coverage but also increasing the density. We think that, that effort has to continue over the longer term as more and more of their network relies on higher-band spectrum. We do -- certainly, the C-band spectrum is a higher band spectrum than the traditional spectrum for years back. That means it doesn't propagate quite as far. It can handle more capacity, but it doesn't propagate as far. So they need to fill in the network in order to make it denser.
The industry will need more spectrum. And as that spectrum comes, it will be even higher band spectrum over time that the wireless carriers rely on, which means there's more infrastructure needed to make the networks denser in order to operate properly on that higher band spectrum.
So one of the things you mentioned was that really the driver of leasing activity over the long run is mobile data traffic growth. In your view, what are some of the key drivers of data traffic and by extension tower leasing in the U.S?
Yes. It really is just more and more handsets being out in the marketplace, higher level handsets, 5G capable handsets are really getting to a point where lots of people have them. And we've seen that transition over a couple of years, right? When you have a new 5G capable phone, not everyone has it, it takes a while for people to get it. When they get it the adoption of applications that are more data intent that require more capacity, use up more capacity.
Those applications grow on the handsets, and people use them more and more. As more and more people have the handsets, more and more people develop applications that will run on the phones and other wireless devices that will drive traffic across the board. That's the cycle that we are certainly seeing today.
So 5G is out there well and good, handsets are ubiquitous across the market applications are going up. That's driving the growth in mobile data consumption, which kind of is the backdrop for the continued capital investments that our customers make in the networks. Going forward, we expect that you will see AI-type applications eventually hitting the wireless networks, right? These large language models that people are building, everyone's developing applications that will be AI generated. The idea of having AI applications require uplink and downlink speeds and capabilities that are similar is a different type of a structure for the wireless network. So we think investments will be required in order to keep up with that. And then 6 Gs are around the corner, and then that will come. That will be another wave of network components that will be added to the networks. And it all is activity that underpins kind of that growth in mobile data consumption, which we expect to just continue in that 30%, 35% range for a little bit here.
What about fixed wireless, where your customers are increasingly leaning into that as a driver of growth? Obviously, those users consume a lot more data than mobile users. So how are you thinking about that as a driver?
Yes. It's a driver of mobile data consumption. Even though it's fixed wireless today is running on the mobile network, so it's coming, let's say, coming off of landline networks and now being provided through wireless networks. That means it's part of the growth in the data consumption going across mobile networks, it's using up capacity on the wireless networks. From everything I hear, the carriers like where it's headed. They like their success, their positioning on it. They like the economics of it.
So if that continues to grow, it just takes up more capacity on the wireless network, which means more capacity needs to be built into the wireless networks. And we're here to help customers do that. So I think it's a very exciting part of the wireless network. It's one of the few instances where you really see an incremental revenue opportunity, bringing revenue that was satisfied in some other way, a service that was satisfied in a totally different way on a different network now transitioning into the wireless network.
So I think it's an interesting development and I think it's good for the wireless carriers, and it could be good for the infrastructure providers, too.
You mentioned spectrum before. One of the priorities in this administration has been trying to find new bands of spectrum to put into use for wireless. How do you view the spectrum pipeline in the U.S.? And what could that mean for leasing activity in the future?
Yes. I think -- I mean it is a priority for the administration to have new spectrum release, the big beautiful bill or the one big beautiful bill has some requirements in there for the FCC to release more spectrum. So we do expect some more spectrum to come in. It's clear the industry needs more spectrum to satisfy that growth in mobile data consumption. But maybe I'll take a minute and just explain the 2 different paths. If you -- if the carriers bring in more spectrum, they're able to put more spectrum into the network and then they can handle more capacity within the network.
In order for that spectrum to work, they need to pair it with antennas and lines and radio. So that's all equipment that they would put on the tower sites, and we would benefit from that. If the spectrum doesn't come, which we think some will and certainly over the next 3 to 5 years and then 5 to 10 years, there should be more spectrum being allocated, higher-band spectrum, I would remind you. If the spectrum doesn't come and the growth in mobile data kind of gets to the point where the networks run into capacity issues in the carriers, we'll deploy more equipment and reuse the spectrum they have more frequently, which is kind of accelerates that density.
And again, it's then putting more equipment, towers, cables, antennas on the towers in order to reuse that spectrum. So either path, new spectrum reusing existing spectrum requires more equipment on the towers.
Filing earlier this year, you noted that DISH had stopped meeting its obligations under your agreement and you're now pursuing legal action. Can you remind us what you expect the impact from that could be? And how should investors think about the potential next steps in that process?
Yes. What I -- that pretty much summarizes kind of where we're at. I won't say too much more than that, other than highlighting the fact that we took DISH out of our outlook completely for 2026. So our 2026 outlook is completely derisked from a DISH perspective. Any future collections or settlement with DISH could be a tailwind to the P&L outlook and/or the balance sheet if there's some sort of a settlement. But within our outlook, there is zero revenue from DISH, zero economic benefit from any kind of a settlement. So there's only upside. And with that said, I would say it is a litigation.
Some of that will be made public and everyone here that's interested can certainly follow that but we won't be commenting along the way in terms of what stage we're in and what's happening in the litigation.
Okay. Makes sense. When we put all of these factors together, how are you thinking about organic growth in the U.S. tower business this year and longer term?
Yes. So this year, the DISH -- removing DISH and having all the DISH discern the '26 affects the outlook, I would say, when you ignore the DISH or before the DISH churn, we're up in the mid-single digits in the 4.5% range.
One of the key elements of that 4.5% organic tenant billings growth in the U.S. excluding DISH is that we're seeing about 250 basis points of growth there from new leasing activity, new co-locations and amendments. That is very similar to almost the same number we saw in the prior year if you exclude DISH altogether, right? No revenue contribution and no churn. And so we are seeing kind of a consistent 2.5% growth on our key net new business, colocations and amendments, not including any churn, just colocations and amendments in there.
So that's good. And that -- and with all the things that I've said earlier, and that feels like a pretty good range for us to be in, given that 35% mobile data consumption and the growth that's coming -- we haven't yet seen AI applications run through wireless networks. That could happen in the future, and that could be an inflection point one way or another. I wouldn't talk too much long term, but I would say where we sit that 2.5% looking forward, we don't see any reason why that level of activity shouldn't be somewhat consistent.
I wanted to pivot to the international business. You've been seeing strong growth in your European business recently. What are some of the main factors driving that performance?
Yes. We -- I mean, we have a great business in Europe underpinned by our acquisition of the Telefonica assets and there's really just a couple of factors. One is what we're seeing organic tenant billings growth over the last several years that's exceeded the U.S. growth.
Now it's coming more back in line, but I think it's still slightly above the U.S. growth, which is good. The underpinnings there is we're seeing healthy new business activity across the carriers that we have. That's amendments, it's colocation on towers. It's new rooftop development. It's some existing customers just increasing their network components. And it's also somewhat supported by Drillisch 101, which is a new carrier in Germany kind of building out a greenfield network, we're getting contributions from them as well.
So the new business activity is solid. And the way that our contracts work is our escalation is basically local CPI, uncapped with a 0% floor. So that's a good place to be in an international contract. We've seen higher levels of inflation in the last few years. That's moderated down a little below where the U.S. is. That's what's making its way into our organic tenant billings number that is still slightly higher than the U.S. But we have that organic tenant billings growth number, that CPI escalation piece of it tied to local inflation.
Again, it's uncapped and it has a zero pool for the most part. In France, there's a little different since we have a 2% escalator in France. It's a smaller business compared to Germany and Spain. And then we're in a good position with churn in Europe where the vast majority of the revenues come from Telefonica on long-term contracts as part of the leaseback transaction we did when we bought the asset. So churn is very much controllable. It's running in a little higher than 1% now or so. But certainly staying within that 1% to 2% even at the lower end of that, it's clear that we're in a good position in Europe.
So to summarize, it's solid new business activity kind of across the market. An escalator that's tied to CPI that's uncapped, which is very good and kind of a modest lower level of churn expected based on the contracts that we have.
It seems like you're doing more new builds in Europe than in the U.S. What are the factors that make these markets attractive to build in?
Yes. So again, I would just highlight the fact that the organic revenue growth has been higher than the U.S. for a couple of years. The markets certainly are high-quality markets, some of the highest economic quality that you would find we like that. We like the developed markets as we've talked about for many years. We do think that's the best place to drive consistent long-term economic growth and returns.
So that is all good. We have a skill set that transfers to Europe pretty well in developing towers and rooftops. The carriers that are in those markets need new assets. And we -- I would say we performed better than other infrastructure providers. That's been our experience and therefore, they come to us and we're able to drive terms and conditions that we are happy with. And therefore, we put capital to work and we build up more components and very high-quality markets for the right customers.
So we're doing that. We'll continue to do that. Some of that is with Telefonica. Some of those build-to-suits came with the leaseback arrangement we had. I think we signed up 3,000 new tower bills over a 10-year period as part of the acquisition contract. We're building sites for Orange, and we're also building sites for Drillisch 101.
In Africa and in APAC, you're guiding to an acceleration in new leasing activity this year. On the other hand, your Latin America business is experiencing some headwinds related to carrier consolidation. How should investors view the fundamental outlook across these different regions?
Yes. I mean there are different regions. And within the regions, the countries are all different. So there is some uniquenesses there that really should be explored if you want to get into a lot of detail there. I would say the differences between Africa and Latin America.
I'll start with Africa, that the new business growth there has been solid, upper single digits, kind of consistently over time. So we're seeing 6%, 7%, 8%, 9% growth from new co-locations and amendments. We expect that activity to continue. So in local currency, that business performs really well. Because the demand for new infrastructure and the carriers' willingness to pay kind of matches up in it and it works pretty good. There is also an element of escalations that are tied to CPI. The inflation was much higher a few years ago, double digits, even 20%, 30%, that's come way down.
So now that the inflation is generally in the upper single digit or even mid-single-digit kind of range. And then we're seeing 4% or 5% churn across the market there. And then, of course, FX is a concern when you're in Africa and in Nigeria and Ghana and other places, Uganda where we are at. But if you look at on a local currency basis, those businesses perform very well. Our contracts are solid. Our teams perform exceptionally well. The infrastructure is important. And it's really the monetary policy, the FX issues that create challenges in those markets.
And for that reason, we have pulled back our investments. That does not mean that the invested capital we have in the towers, we have can't perform exceptionally well in some years when FX behaves itself. In some years, there may be some FX headwinds. We are looking to minimize the impact that those FX headwinds can have on our overall business. That's why you've heard us talking about shrinking the exposure to Africa relative to our other places we can do that by growing and developed markets or we can shrink Africa from time to time here and there when it makes sense for us and for the investors.
So that is Africa. It could do very well over the long term. The economic risk around FX and some other things have caused us to not want to put more development CapEx there, but we will ride that bet that we have and I think it will be constructive. Many years. In some years, we'll have some FX headwinds, certainly.
Latin America is a little bit different. It's a more mature market, some of the backdrop in terms of the number of carriers and the competition is different. We've seen more carriers kind of in the market there, and now we're working through consolidation. And that's kind of a major event in Brazil and in a few other places. So we're seeing significant consolidation churn. And in some cases, as the market works through the consolidation churn, they've also slowed down on their new business activity, their amendments. They're really focused on absorbing the customers that are being -- the carriers that are being consolidated and integrating things in. And so the new business has slowed. The churn has gone up, and we generally have inflation-based escalators in there as well.
You put all that together, and we've been projecting low single-digit OTBG for a number of years. We've kind of been in that cycle. We delayed some churn from '25 to '26. We've also accelerated some expected churn from '27 into '26. That puts us in a negative position relative to organic tenant billings growth. But that will pull us out of this quicker, too.
So we'll accelerate the recovery and we say accelerating growth. We expect that growth to go from negative to begin to accelerate to a more normal organic tenant billings growth across the region over the next couple of years. And we are really very excited about the backdrop in Brazil. They've worked their way through to 3 primary carriers pretty good distribution of market share, pretty healthy across the board. It's a big market, and it's one that we think we could do very well in over time.
I wanted to ask next about your data center business. CoreSite, as you mentioned earlier, has posted consistent double-digit growth the past few years, and you're now guiding to low teens revenue growth again in 2026. What's driving that performance? And are you starting to see a greater contribution from AI related to that?
Yes. So our data center business, CoreSite has been and continues to perform exceptionally well. That great performance has been accelerating, going up from upper single digits to higher to getting it to double digit to now staying in the double-digit economic growth. That's what we were projecting. And and that's where it is. I would remind people that, that's well above the range we underwrote when we did the acquisition.
Just as a reminder, we were in the 6% to 8% range when we underwrote it. We've been above that almost the whole time, and now we're in the double-digit growth. The -- I mean, what's driving the double-digit growth really is the new business, the demand side of the equation. Not just for our assets, but kind of across the board. It is a time when more and more of the world's greatest companies in networks, they all want to get into cloud on ramps, they all want to interconnect each other. They all want space where they can build out their business, to grow their own business. They require that interconnection and the ecosystem that CoreSite offers to grow their own business.
So we've seen the demand strengthened. We've had 3 or 4 years of record sales repeatedly that not only does that drive in our case, double-digit revenue growth that can translate down into overall economic growth, but it also predicts it out over a couple of years because you're delivering capacity that you've already sold. So we feel really good about the next few years in terms of where that business is going to go and keeping revenue up. We're investing more capital because we need to do that in order to satisfy the growing demand.
In the increment -- the returns on the incremental capital has been really good. We're looking at mid-single, mid teens to better than mid-teens on a stabilized basis for the incremental capital that we're putting in place. A couple of years ago, we would talk about how before we even started building a building, it would be 55%, 60%, 65% preleased. That's come back just a little bit because we're accelerating some builds. And much of the building that we're doing is connected the campuses we already own. It's not out speculative building. It is just expanding the campuses because our existing customers within those campuses want more space. They want more compute power.
So the business is performing exceptionally well. We are seeing AI use cases show up in our pipeline. We're leasing space to folks that will use it for AI inferencing. But in 2025, it was very early, not a meaningful impact at all. In terms of the P&L, we think that will grow a little bit in '26. But over the next couple of years, we do see AI inferencing tipping into these interconnection data centers with cloud on ramps, our centers are -- have the ability to be very dense from a GPU basis.
So you can get a lot of compute power in the small spaces. We think that AI inferencing is going to go up. It could be a wave of demand on top of already very strong demand.
One of the major themes recently in the data center space has been the imbalance between demand and supply of capacity in part because it's so hard to get access to power. Are you seeing that play out? And if so, what does that mean for pricing power across your business?
Yes. I think -- I mean, a lot of it comes back down to the chipsets that are out, faster, more powerful chipsets, companies can do more with that and to help grow their own business. If they're going to do that, they need a place to do that. They need power to do that. They have a place where that power and the heat generated can also be cooled. And that's where you get into these great ecosystems that we have with liquid cooling in most of our facilities across the U.S. We can put the GPU density is going up in our facilities, and we are able to do that for our customers, and they can compute more and do more.
So we -- again, we've had great performance in CoreSite. It is even before AI really kind hits in there. That is causing a lot of demand for our site specifically, and I would highlight the fact that we believe our sites are differentiated from others. The fact that our sites have multiple cloud on-ramps in each of our facilities, each of our campuses, that is key. We've got over 400 networks terminating within our campuses across the U.S.
Our customers rely on interconnection. They interconnect with each other. We're seeing high single-digit, even transitioning to double-digit growth in the interconnection world. So companies that are interconnected with one another. That works so well for them in terms of growing their own business. They want more of it. And the interconnection grows. That is kind of the demand profile. And that's why you've seen us increase our CapEx to increase capacity to stay ahead of that. We are building in order to provide 2 years' worth of absorption. Typically, we've pre-leased a lot of that 2 years, so it's a low-risk capital, and that's why we're able to drive these high mid-teens or better returns on a stabilized basis.
You recently unveiled a new cost-saving initiative with the goal to generate 200 to 300 basis points of margin expansion over the next 5 years. Tell us a bit more about this initiative what areas of the cost structure are you planning to focus on? And why does this make sense to roll out now?
Yes. I would say, first off, the idea of being efficient in managing costs, we've been focused on that for quite a while. Of course, I think anyone that knows us know we grew materially over a number of years through M&A. That M&A activity post CoreSite has slowed down. Our last 3 acquisitions was the CoreSite acquisition in the U.S. We bought Telefonica towers in Europe, and then we bought another good-sized tower company in the U.S. So our last 3 acquisitions were all centered around the U.S. and Europe in high-quality economies and assets.
Since then, the M&A activity has slowed a little bit. We've been focused on integrating everything fully and making our operations very efficient. You've seen us reduce SG&A year-over-year even in light of and working against 7%, 8%, 9% inflation. That's not an easy thing to do. And we did that even though our SG&A as a percent of revenue was already kind of industry-leading and our margins have been industry-leading as well.
Now we're transitioning with the appointment of Bud Knoll as the Chief Operating Officer globally to bring some global standards lessons learned and efficiency that comes out of systems and approaches around the globe to really make sure that we're very efficient. He will be focused on things like managing our land expense and land renewal. So a lot of things there that the U.S. has learned over a long period of time that can be more fully integrated outside of the U.S.
Unifying supply chains around the globe and really driving contracts where we maximize the benefit that we can see in our procurement areas across IT and systems and really trying to use the best practices from a systems perspective and get them in the right places and make the service better for the customers and reduce the cost. So we think we've got a nice outlook there. And the way we describe it is that those efforts over the next 3 years, 4 years will contribute to margin expansion along with our general business and growth in revenue.
So we're projecting that our margins will expand about 300 basis points out to 2030.
It sounds like you're starting to do some efficiency work using AI that's separate from these initiatives. Can you discuss some of the things you're looking at with that?
Yes. AI is rapidly developing. We're on it, looking at it. We've been for a little while for a year or so. We certainly think there will be applications that will make our business more efficient. And as and when we completely analyze the opportunities and build things in, we'll let people know. But I would say that even above the 300 basis point expected margin expansion. AI could have another wave of kind of dramatic results there.
In areas like lease processing, lease abstraction and some financial reporting and some of the accounting areas, predicting where sites may be needed and other things, doing analysis on towers through drone footage, having AI review that to make it much quicker and instantaneous in terms of figuring out what's on the towers. Is it actually the equipment that's listed out in the agreements. Is there any equipment differences.
So it's an exciting time. I think it could be important to the way our business operates, and it could be in addition to the 300 basis point expansion that we expect.
You've been delevering your balance sheet over the past few years, and you're now back within your target range of 3 to 5x. How is American Tower thinking about capital allocation in general? And what does it mean for the company to now be within your leverage target?
Yes. So we are back within our target. We're below 5x, which is a nice place for us to be. We've enjoyed 2 credit rating expansions or upgrades. We're at BBB+ now across 2 of the 3 firms, which, again, is a place that we like to be because we're focused on quality of earnings.
We're focused on quality of balance sheet. The way we allocate capital really has not changed in terms of the way we approach it, maybe our focus areas certainly are different. So that's absolutely the case. But first and foremost, we provide a dividend over $3 billion this year, about $3 billion last year, over $3 billion this year, grew 5% last year, probably in the same similar way this year.
That dividend and dividend growth is paramount to us. It will continue. We will protect it and really be focused on it. After that, we go back and we invest capital. We think that's the highest return possible. We're investing more of it, 80% of the growth capital now is going into the developed markets, which again is the highest quality markets in the world with the highest quality customers in the world, we think that is a really good thing.
So we typically invest anywhere between $1.5 billion and $2 billion a year in capital programs. Then beyond that, we look for M&A opportunities where we can leverage scale, increase assets in places we already are, get an outsized benefit that someone else might be able to value in. And we'll continue to be very selective. I just highlighting again, our last few acquisitions were in tower -- a big tower portfolio in Europe, a medium -- a good-sized tower portfolio in the U.S. and then the CoreSite business in the U.S. all of which are working out very, very well for us.
And so we'll continue on that disciplined, developed markets kind of approach, really trying to figure out the infrastructure that the networks of the future are going to need in the highest quality markets. That's really -- that's where we're focused. And then beyond that, we will and always do put up M&A against share buybacks. We'll do the math and make the right decision there when we can [indiscernible] invest over $365 million at the end of last year in a relatively short time buying back shares.
We announced we continue to do that as we turn the corner into 2026. So we bought back more shares in 2026. Not making any prediction going forward, but that is in our toolbox. We'll be looking at that and putting it up against any M&A. We'll be balancing that with the benefits of just paying down debt and preserving capital for future deployment. So our approach there hasn't changed materially at all.
One of the questions investors have been asking recently is whether satellite broadband could end up competing with terrestrial wireless infrastructure or it will mainly be a complement to towers. I know you have a relationship with AST SpaceMobile, who's building out satellite broadband. So I'm curious to hear your perspective on that.
Yes. We view it as a complementary. An important complementary technology to terrestrial networks. It is built and designed for certain purposes like extending coverage into rural areas, hard-to-reach areas. Those hard-to-reach areas can be in places like the U.S. and also over in Africa, LatAm throughout Asia.
So it really is a very important service, but it's complementary to terrestrial land-based networks. It also provides immediate coverage support and disaster recovery and extreme weather events and those sorts of things. So that's clear. There are fundamental challenges with trying to have a satellite wireless service compete with a terrestrial network. There are capacity issues in terms of the spectrum that is available for satellites and how much capacity you can actually run through that, and it is nowhere near sufficient to compete with terrestrial networks in places where people live and work and travel. And I think that's kind of broadly and widely known. So we do view it as an important complement to the terrestrial networks, not a competitor.
Maybe just to wrap up, it's still fairly early, but the industry is starting to discuss 6G. Do you have any initial thoughts on what spectrum could you use for 6G? And when you'd expect that activity to start picking up more meaningfully?
Yes. People are talking about 6G. We're just getting 5G deployed in the discussion already leapfrog to the next technology. New technology is always good for tower companies and infrastructure players.
Those new technologies allow new applications, which often are higher bandwidth. And in an AI setting, again, it's going to be an uplink and downlink. It's going to fundamentally change the way the networks need to operate in it's going to require new infrastructure. I would expect that there will be additional spectrum coming along for 6G and won't be for a few years yet. So it's too early to talk too much about that. But it will be higher band spectrum, maybe significantly higher band spectrum, which means the capacity will be there, but the propagation won't be there. And that, again, is another kind of fundamental driver for network densification.
Well, that seems like a pretty good place to wrap it up. Thanks, Rod.
Excellent. Thanks, Ben. Thanks, everyone, for joining.
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American Tower — Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media
American Tower — Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kurz: Management betont Fokus auf organisches Wachstum und Rendite: mehr Kapital in entwickelte Märkte (USA, Europa, CoreSite), strikte Kapitalallokation, Dividende vorrangig. Initiativen zur Effizienz sollen Margen signifikant erhöhen; DISH wurde vollständig aus der 2026‑Prognose entfernt.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Data Center: CoreSite zeigt wiederholt Rekordabschlüsse; Management führt Low‑teens Umsatzwachstum für 2026 an und sieht wachsende AI‑Nachfrage (bisher begrenzt).
- Kapital: Jährliche Growth‑CapEx ~$1,5–2,0 Mrd., ~80% in entwickelte Märkte; Dividende & Buybacks bleiben Priorität.
- Effizienz: Globales Sparprogramm (Bud Knoll als COO) zielt auf 200–300 Basispunkte Margenverbesserung; AI‑Tools als zusätzlicher Hebel.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- Ausblickupdate: DISH bewusst mit 0 Umsatz in der 2026‑Planung (Outlook "derisked"); jeder künftige Zahlungseingang wäre Upside.
- Quantitativ: AFFO/Shr 2025 +≈8%; 2025 CapEx ~ $1,8 Mrd.; US organisches Tenant‑Billings‑Wachstum ex‑DISH ~4,5% (2,5% aus Neugeschäft).
- Margenziel: Management nennt 200–300 bp Expansion über die nächsten Jahre (teilweise bis 2030 quantifiziert).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- DISH: Kernfrage zur rechtlichen Lage; Management bestätigt Litigation, verweist aber auf beschränkte öffentliche Updates und hat DISH aus Guidance gestrichen (eher ausweichend zu Details).
- Nachfrageprofil: Analysten hoben 5G‑Dichte, Fixed Wireless und AI‑Usecases hervor; Management sieht anhaltendes mobiles Datenwachstum (30–35%) und mittelfristig weitere Dichteausbau‑Bedarf.
- Regionenrisiken: Afrika: starke lokale Performance, aber FX‑Risiko; Lateinamerika: Carrier‑Konsolidierung erhöht Churn — Management nennt kurzfristigen Rückgang, mittelfristige Erholung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Positives, konvexes Profil: stabiler organischer Kern, starkes CoreSite‑Momentum und klarer Plan zur Marginverbesserung. Wichtige Risiken bleiben DISH‑Litigation, FX in Afrika und LatAm‑Churn; AI und operative Effizienz bieten messbaren Upside‑Spielraum.
American Tower — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Tower Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. Following the prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Spencer Kurn, SVP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm Spencer Kurn, Head of Investor Relations for American Tower. Joining me on the call today are Steven Vondran, our President and CEO; and Rod Smith, our Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for your questions.
Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our safe harbor statement. It says that some of our comments today may be forward-looking. As such, they are subject to risks and uncertainties described in American Tower SEC filings and results may differ materially. Additional information is available on our Investor Relations website.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve.
Thanks, Spencer. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining today's call. As you can see from our published results, we had a great year and an excellent fourth quarter. For the full year, we delivered attributable AFFO per share as adjusted growth of 8%, including over 13% growth in the fourth quarter. These results were underpinned by robust leasing demand across our tower and data center businesses and strong execution against our strategy.
Over the past year, we've taken meaningful steps to improve our earnings quality and durability. We've steered capital toward developed markets, globalized and simplified our operations and brought leverage back down to our target range. These actions put us on strong footing to capitalize on future growth opportunities and deliver on our goal of industry-leading AFFO per share growth.
Before turning the call over to Rod to review our detailed financial results and 2026 outlook, I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing our key priorities for 2026, as outlined on Slide 5 of our earnings presentation.
First, driving durable revenue growth. The backbone of our revenue growth is mobile data consumption, which continues to grow rapidly alongside growth in mobile customers, 5G adoption and fixed wireless access. This secular demand growth is expected to require a doubling in wireless network capacity between now and 2030. On top of this, with trillions of dollars being deployed into AI, it's likely that new AI applications will propel mobile data consumption even higher and require greater bandwidth, lower latency and more uplink capacity than today's typical usage.
In our largest tower market, the U.S., carriers are in the middle stages of the 5G cycle, where they broadly completed their initial 5G coverage-oriented activity and are shifting toward capacity-oriented activity. We anticipate carriers will densify their networks not only to meet the capacity demand of 5G, but also to plan ahead for the 6G cycle. We're excited about the 800 megahertz of higher frequency spectrum that's been earmarked for 6G and believe its deployment will drive significant activity on towers. As carriers invest in this capacity, we expect our U.S. portfolio to deliver durable long-term mid-single-digit organic growth.
As you saw in our 8-K form from January, DISH has defaulted on its payment obligations. We continue to pursue legal action to recover the value of its remaining lease obligations. And while DISH's default negatively impacts our 2026 outlook, in the long run, we expect our business to benefit from a healthier, well-capitalized customer base that can invest more heavily in their mobile networks.
Internationally, we see parallel trends of rising data consumption driving durable network investment. In our European market, 5G progress lagged slightly behind the U.S. and strong demand for new sites is prompting exciting levels of newbuild activity with top-tier carriers. In our emerging markets, 4G-related activity continues to dominate, but we see increasing levels of 5G rollouts in key metros with significant runway for growth. We continue to expect our international tower portfolio to deliver faster organic growth in the U.S. as our less mature portfolio is leased up over time.
In our data center business, strong demand for hybrid and multi-cloud deployments and positive pricing actions continue to yield impressive double-digit growth. Demand for AI-related use cases like inferencing and machine learning is driving an increasing portion of new leasing, and CoreSite's AI-ready platform is equipped to accommodate these higher-density, interconnection-heavy workloads within its existing cost structure. CoreSite is also benefiting from sustained migration of enterprise IT infrastructure from on-premises to interconnection-rich colocation facility. These powerful demand trends, combined with our unique interconnection-oriented infrastructure, continue to support CoreSite's achievement of mid-teens or higher stabilized yields on new data center deployments.
Our second priority is operational efficiency. This has long been a key operating principle at American Tower. Over the past 3 years, we worked diligently to improve our cost structure by centrally aligning our regional groups, divesting noncore business units and automating leasing transactions. These initiatives have helped deliver over 300 basis points of cash EBITDA margin expansion across our global tower portfolio since 2022. And today, we have the highest like-for-like tower cash EBITDA margins amongst our peer group.
The bulk of our recent cost efficiency efforts are focused on reducing SG&A, which for our tower business is best-in-class at approximately 4.5% of revenue. With the creation of our global COO position last year, we've undergone an extensive review of the direct costs within our tower business in an effort to bend our cost curve and grow direct expenses at a slower rate than revenue.
We identified four key areas of expense savings across our global tower portfolio: first, managing land expense, which is our most significant direct cost, by expanding our highly successful U.S.-based land optimization program to other markets; second, implementing a global unified sourcing and supply chain to enable economies of scale, gain pricing advantages and improved inventory management; third, accelerating the adoption of our well-developed standard of care for U.S. assets across our global portfolio to improve repair and maintenance costs; and fourth, simplifying and standardizing internal technology platforms to optimize customer service and accelerate automation.
We expect these new initiatives in conjunction with continued strong conversion rates to drive 200 to 300 basis points of tower cash EBITDA margin expansion over the next 5 years. On top of this, we're investing in AI to accelerate efficiency gains even further. While we're still in the early stages of AI adoption, we expect AI use cases to target process automation, predictive maintenance, power and utility management and workflow optimization. We look forward to updating you on our AI endeavors and accelerated efficiency targets in the future.
Moving to our last priority for the year, capital allocation. We remain disciplined stewards of capital, striving to generate durable cash flow growth with high returns on invested capital. Now that we're back within our target leverage range, we have significant flexibility. After funding our dividend, we will opportunistically assess the best uses of our capital among internal CapEx, M&A, share repurchases and further delevering. This year, we plan to deploy the vast majority of growth CapEx to our developed tower markets and CoreSite, and we'll continue to manage our global portfolio in ways that accelerate growth and reduce volatility.
Before turning the call over to Rod to discuss our 2025 results and 2026 outlook, I'd like to thank our incredible employees for delivering another excellent year. We've established a best-in-class platform for capitalizing on strong industry demand drivers, and I'm confident that we're well positioned to execute our 2026 priorities and drive accelerating durable growth in 2027 and beyond.
Rod, over to you.
Thanks, Steve, and thank you all for joining the call. I'll start by walking you through our 2025 highlights and then share our 2026 outlook.
Slide 7 shows a snapshot of our full year highlights. Consolidated property revenue grew approximately 4% year-over-year and approximately 5% when excluding noncash straight line and FX impacts. Our growth was primarily driven by organic tenant billings growth of approximately 5% and complemented by data center revenue growth of approximately 14%.
Adjusted EBITDA grew approximately 5% year-over-year and approximately 7% excluding noncash net straight line and FX impacts, Property revenue growth was magnified by record services contribution and disciplined cost management, resulting in 20 basis points of consolidated margin expansion.
Attributable AFFO per share as adjusted grew approximately 8% year-over-year, firmly within our long-term range of mid- to high single digits. This growth was supported by strong conversion of adjusted EBITDA growth and management of below-the-line costs. Excluding refinancing headwinds of approximately 1% and normalized for FX impacts, AFFO per share as adjusted grew approximately 9% year-over-year, demonstrating the underlying strength of our business model.
Finally, on the capital allocation front, we brought leverage back down into our target range of 3 to 5x, and we ended the year at 4.9x. Also in the fourth quarter, we repurchased approximately $365 million of American Tower common stock, our largest quarterly and annual buyback since 2017. We've continued to repurchase stock in 2026, buying back approximately $53 million year-to-date.
Now let's turn to our full year 2026 outlook, starting with organic tenant billings growth on Slide 8. As Steve mentioned, DISH failed to meet its payment obligation and is in default. This did not impact our 2025 financials, and for the full year 2025, DISH represented approximately 2% of consolidated property revenue and approximately 4% of U.S. and Canada property revenue. In order to reset true run rate expectations for the U.S. and Canada, 100% of DISH's revenue was removed from organic growth beginning on January 1 and reflected in churn. Any payments collected from DISH subsequent to year-end 2025 will be reflected in other non-run rate revenue.
For 2026, we expect consolidated organic tenant billings growth of approximately 1% or approximately 4% excluding DISH churn. In the U.S. and Canada, organic tenant billings growth is expected to be approximately 0.5% or approximately 4.5% when excluding DISH churn. This is comprised of colocation and amendment growth of approximately 2.5%, escalations of approximately 3%, DISH-related churn of approximately 4% and normal churn of approximately 1%. We remain constructive on growth for towers in the U.S., supported by a healthier well-capitalized customer base.
In Africa and APAC, organic tenant billings growth is expected to be approximately 8.5%. This is comprised of colocation and amendment growth of approximately 7%, representing a modest acceleration off of 2025 levels, CPI-linked escalations of approximately 4% and churn of approximately 2.5%. Churn is expected to be back half weighted, resulting in approximately 10% organic growth in the first half of the year and approximately 7% in the second half of the year.
In Europe, organic tenant billings growth is expected to be approximately 4%. This is comprised of colocation and amendment growth of approximately 3%, consistent with 2025 levels, CPI-linked escalations of approximately 2% and churn of approximately 1%.
In LatAm, organic tenant billings is expected to decline by approximately 3%. This includes steady colocation and amendment contributions of approximately 2%, CPI-linked escalations of approximately 4%, churn of approximately 8% and other run rate revenue headwinds of approximately 1%. As communicated over the last couple of years, we have expected low single-digit organic growth in LatAm through the end of 2027 due to elevated consolidation-related churn in Brazil and for organic growth to accelerate in 2028 once the churn passed.
On average, our multiyear expectations remain consistent, though we now expect more acute churn in 2026 and the acceleration in organic growth to commence in 2027, 1 year earlier than previously expected. The higher churn in 2026 is driven by a combination of delayed churn initially expected in 2025 and accelerated churn initially expected in 2027. Overall, we are encouraged by the prospects of an earlier-than-expected market repair in Brazil and from the forthcoming acceleration of organic growth in 2027.
As a reminder, we still have an ongoing arbitration with AT&T Mexico. We remain confident in our legal position and note that the outcome of the arbitration may impact organic growth.
Turning to property revenue on Slide 9. We expect our outlook for approximately 1% organic tenant billings growth to be complemented by the selective construction of approximately 2,000 new tower sites at the midpoint of our outlook and approximately 13% growth in our U.S. data center business. Excluding noncash straight line revenue and FX impacts, property revenue is expected to grow approximately 3%.
Normalized for the impact of onetime DISH-related churn, our outlook for property revenue implies approximately 5% growth on a cash FX-neutral basis. The FX assumptions contemplated in our 2026 outlook, which reflect our standard methodology and are conservative relative to current spot rates, contribute approximately 1% of incremental growth. And noncash straight-line revenue represents an approximately 2% headwind to our GAAP outlook for property revenue.
Moving to Slide 10. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow approximately 2% when excluding net straight line and FX impacts as growth in towers and data centers is partially offset by a decline in services. Normalized for the onetime impact of DISH-related churn, our outlook for cash adjusted EBITDA implies approximately 5% growth. Cash adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be 66.8%, down a modest 20 basis points versus last year as steady margins in towers are offset by contributions from lower-margin data centers and services.
In towers, due to a continuation of high conversion rates and cost savings initiatives, we expect cash margins to be flat year-over-year even while absorbing approximately 60 basis points of onetime pressure from DISH-related churn. In data centers, we expect cash margins to decline approximately 270 basis points year-over-year as onetime benefits from property tax adjustments and legal settlements in 2025 are not expected to reoccur in 2026. Normalized for these onetime items, we expect cash margins to hold steady as strong lease-up of existing facilities is offset by putting new capacity into service.
In services, we expect healthy levels of carrier activity to drive our third highest services contribution in the history of the company. While this level of services contribution is robust relative to historical standards, following our record 2025 and taking into account an increasing contribution of lower-margin construction services, it weighs on consolidated growth and margins in 2026.
Turning to AFFO on Slide 11. Our 2026 outlook assumes attributable AFFO per share growth of approximately 1% year-over-year. Normalized for the impact of onetime DISH-related churn and excluding the impact of FX and refinancing costs, our outlook for attributable AFFO per share growth implies approximately 5% growth.
Bridging from our 2026 outlook for cash adjusted EBITDA, tailwinds from lower maintenance capital and share repurchases executed in the fourth quarter of 2025 and year-to-date in 2026 are partially offset by higher interest expenses as debt is refinanced at higher rates, higher cash taxes and higher minority interest and distributions, consistent with our expectations.
While our outlook for 2026 growth is negatively impacted by churn events in the U.S. and Latin America, we believe that we are well positioned to deliver our goal of industry-leading attributable AFFO per share growth and compelling total shareholder returns in subsequent years.
On Slide 12, I'll review our capital allocation plans for 2026. We expect to grow our dividend approximately 5%, resulting in approximately $3.3 billion in distributions to our shareholders, subject to Board approval. Next, we're planning for $1.9 billion in capital deployment, of which $1.8 billion is discretionary in nature and includes the construction of 2,000 sites at the midpoint.
Approximately 85% of our discretionary spend is directed towards our developed market platforms, including over $700 million in success-based investments in our data center portfolio to replenish elevated levels of capacity sold over the past several years, increased spend in the U.S. primarily toward land buyouts under our tower sites and continued acceleration in European newbuilds with over 700 new sites planned.
Our plan also includes approximately $180 million in maintenance capital, a reduction of roughly $15 million due to an acceleration of maintenance capital projects into 2025, reducing 2026 anticipated spending.
Moving to the right side of the slide, we remain disciplined as we utilize our balance sheet, which is well positioned for a variety of macroeconomic scenarios. And we are focused on allocating capital to optimize long-term shareholder value creation. As I mentioned, we repurchased approximately $365 million of American Tower stock in 2025, plus another approximately $53 million so far in 2026. We will continue to be opportunistic in utilizing the remaining approximately $1.6 billion that the Board has authorized for share repurchases.
Turning to Slide 13 and, in summary, we are pleased with our 2025 results, which demonstrate the fundamental durability of our business model. Robust mobile data consumption growth and demand for our interconnection-rich data centers underpin a long runway of growth opportunities for American Tower. With our best-in-class portfolio of towers and data centers and strong balance sheet, we are well positioned to capture these growth opportunities and deliver on our goal of industry-leading attributable AFFO per share growth.
And with that, operator, we can open the line for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Batya Levi of UBS.
2. Question Answer
Great. On the domestic side, can you provide a bit more color on the pacing of activity that you're seeing from the carriers as we enter a lower contracted revenue cycle that you had under the holistic deals in the prior terms? And are you seeing a change in the amendment versus densification activity today? And maybe just to compare that 2.5% leasing growth guidance for '26, how does that compare to '25 if we exclude DISH?
I'll start with leasing trends, and then I'll let Rod talk about the numbers on it. So what we're seeing, Batya, is we're seeing the customers providing a steady level of activity, kind of broad-based across the entire ecosystem there. And we are seeing a higher incidence of new colocations coming in, but we still have a pretty healthy amendment pipeline as well. And this is what we would expect to see at this point in the cycle.
Some of the carriers are broadly done with their initial 5G overlays. So there'll be some fill-in fights that happen there, but they're broadly done with their initial targets. One is still a little bit further behind on that. And we are still seeing some amendment growth there. And when it comes to the densification, we're seeing some amendments because they're adding more equipment to existing sites that they've already overlaid, but they're also adding new sites.
So we are seeing a little bit of a shift in that. But we still would expect the majority of our new leasing to come from amendments this year, as we have historically.
Batya, this is Rod. I'll take the other piece of your question relative to the colo and amendment contribution to organic tenant billings and how it relates to prior year. So if you look at our 2026 guide for organic tenant billings growth, it's about 0.5%. Within that, there is about 2.4% contribution coming from colocation and amendment revenue. Now that doesn't have any contribution from DISH at all in it.
If you go back to the prior year, the 2025 numbers, we were at about 3.1%, 3.2%, which included some activity from DISH in terms of the contribution from colocation and amendment revenue. When you remove that contribution in the prior year number from DISH, you'd come right in at that 2.5% level. So we are seeing, as Steve outlined, very consistent activity levels in the U.S. marketplace ex DISH. And we're seeing about 2.5% contribution from colocation and amendment revenue in each of those years from the carriers in the U.S. ex DISH.
The only other thing I would add to the pacing of the new business, as Steve said, it's pretty consistent. You will see a little bit higher number in the first half of the year and it drops down just slightly in the second half of the year.
Yes. Thanks, Rod. I think you meant to say 2.5% contribution from new leases and amendments this year.
Our next question comes from the line of Rick Prentiss of Raymond James & Associates.
Can you hear me okay
Yes. We can, Rick.
I want to start on the DISH. Appreciate it's out of the guidance. We had taken it out of our numbers as well. Can you provide us the amount owed? Like Crown Castle mentioned that they owed $3.5 billion when they terminated the agreement with DISH. Are you able to tell us how much is owned and that you're looking at trying to work out of payment from them?
Yes. Thanks, Rick. Yes, I think the key takeaway that we want everybody to have about DISH from today's call is that we have derisked our business going forward by taking it out of the numbers. And we fully plan to in the litigation. We think our contract is enforceable. We're going to do everything we can to collect that. But that would all be incremental upside to the current guidance that we're giving out there.
When it comes to the exposure on DISH, we've given you guys the numbers. We can kind of back into it, where it represents about 4% of our U.S. revenue. So that's approximately $200 million a year and we've disclosed that it goes through 2035 into 2036. So that gives you guys kind of the ballpark on that. We haven't put a specific number out there and don't plan to put a precise number on it, but that gives you guys kind of the ZIP code of where that exposure is or what the opportunity is actually now that it's out of the numbers.
And so in terms of -- and I'll go and proactively address this for some of the other questions I know are coming. We don't plan to speculate on the litigation. It's public, and you guys can follow along as you go. This is going to take time to work out. And so we don't necessarily expect this to get resolved this year. We hope it does, but we don't necessarily expect it to. And so as we kind of go forward in the year, we'll keep you updated if anything material that happens. But otherwise, we're just going to continue to fight this out in the courts and see where it goes.
Excellent. Along those lines, obviously, settlement or payments would be upside to the capital allocation. You mentioned opportunistic stock buybacks, also pursue M&A. How should we think about M&A out there, what you're seeing across the global landscape? And maybe address also kind of the disparity between public and private multiples.
Yes. Thanks, Rick. We continue to evaluate everything that's out there. As you probably know, there's a lot of portfolios that are talked about right now. There's not a lot of active deals that we're seeing. But we are still seeing a disconnect between private and public multiples. And we think that, that reflects the attractiveness and the durability of revenue in the tower business. And so that's kept us on the sidelines for the past few years because there has been that delta there that's made it hard for us to participate.
But just to reiterate to everyone, our capital allocation strategy is to focus on developed markets. And so you should not expect to see us participating in M&A in emerging markets. We'll continue to invest a small amount of capital there, opportunistically doing redevelopment to support our organic tenant billings growth there. And then we do have some build-to-suits that we're doing as part of multiyear commitments we entered into previously.
But as we think about capital allocation going forward, it's really focused on developed markets, predominantly the U.S. And then if there's an opportunity in Europe or elsewhere that's developed, we'll certainly evaluate that. But we're not seeing a lot of deal flow out there that we find attractive today. And we hope that changes. We hope that there is an opportunity for us to scale in some of those markets. And if there is, we'll keep you guys apprised when it happens.
Rick, I would just add a couple of quick things here. You had mentioned any possible future settlement from DISH could be a balance sheet item. I'll just highlight the fact that DISH is in default at the moment. They're not paying us. There is the potential for future collections that may come in. And if they do, it could be accounted for in other non-run rate revenue. So there could be some P&L impacts to the extent that there are future collections from DISH as we go forward.
And the only other thing I'd highlight on capital allocation is we are now down below our 5%, within our 3 to 5x leverage target. As you've heard Steve and I talk about over the last several quarters, that brings us into financial flexibility. Just to remind you the bits and pieces here, Steve talked about this. We're a REIT. We provide the dividend. We think that's essential to our long-term TSR, total shareholder return. Then we have been consistently investing between $1.5 billion and $2 billion in CapEx. And we've been able to rotate that, as Steve said, into the areas where we see the best returns.
Today, that's going into developed markets and it's increasing capital investments in CoreSite. And then we look at M&A and buyback, and we will make the decisions between those two pieces in terms of which one provides the best outlook for long-term total shareholder return. And of course, if paying down debt and building capacity for future deployments make sense, then we'll do that. So we have a lot of options available to us. We're willing to use them all. And we are now in a place where the balance sheet is very strong and we've regained full financial flexibility.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins of Citi.
So the margin guidance for cash margins to go up by 200 to 300 basis points by 2030, how much of that is just organic from the natural operating leverage in the business? And then how much is represented by the acceleration of the activities that you outlined earlier?
Michael, this is Rod. Let me take that one. So as you highlight in our 2026 guide for cash EBITDA margins, we're guiding to about 66.8%. That is slightly down from the prior year, down about 20 basis points. Of course, within there, there is organic revenue growth as the benefits of cost management that I would remind you and other listeners that we, as a company, have been focused on cost management and efficiencies over the long term historically and certainly over the last several years, that you've seen us talk about absolute reductions in SG&A year-over-year over the last few years. So this is not new to us in terms of focusing on cost.
A couple of things that are offsetting those expansionary pieces that are driving the margin is it's offset by higher contributions from our data center business which is lower margin as well as contributions from our services business that also has lower margin. And I would highlight that it's absorbing about 50 basis points of contraction because of the DISH churn. And within there, it has a step back in the CoreSite margins by about 270 basis points. A lot of that is a onetime nonrecurring benefit we got in property tax. As we reversed a prior property tax accrual in 2025, that's not expected to be recurring again, of course, in 2026.
With all of that said, I'm not going to go through and try to break out the bits and pieces of that margin expansion that we are expecting. We have increased margins about 300 basis points over the last several years. We expect to do that again going forward in the next several years going out to about 2030. And I'm not going to break it out in terms of which pieces are the organic growth pieces and which ones are the cost savings. And it really is a continuation of what we've been doing. We've been focused a lot on reducing and managing SG&A. We'll now pivot towards global operations and look to reduce and manage our direct expenses down. That will help contribute to that continued expansion.
And just to confirm. Over the last several months, I think you and Steve have been talking about the incremental effort to drive efficiency, and we were going to get an update at some point. So does today's target for 2030 fully encapsulate the activities that you've been describing over the last several months just to continue to push those efficiencies forward?
It encapsulates the things that I talked about in my script, where we talked about the four initiatives that we're taking on today. We do think that AI could offer some incremental upside to that, but it's too early to predict exactly what that's going to be. So when you think about what we're doing here, the direct costs typically rise with inflation. And so we thought the best way to explain a target to you guys was to do it in terms of margin. We could put out a number that's sort of a voided cost number that wouldn't mean anything to anybody.
But we didn't think that was the right way to explain it. We thought it was really to focus on what's going to be in the bottom line and what's something you could actually model out in terms of our expectation. And so when we looked at it, and we looked at what the growth would have been in terms of margins just from the operating leverage and where we were in terms of direct, we set a stretch target for ourselves. And we do think that, that 200 to 300 points of margin expansion represents some nice improvement over what it would otherwise be if we weren't able to recognize these cost savings.
So that's the guidance you're going to get from us, is that margin expansion piece. If theres's a chance to do something else with AI, and we think there is, once we've been able to sort of figure exactly what those numbers look like, we'll share it. But until then, focused on margin expansion. As Rod said, look at it on the tower side. not on a data center and services side. And we give you guys enough information on supplemental to do that. And we'll continue to expand those margins and update you on that quarter, like we always have.
And Michael, I would just add that, that margin expansion is off of a base that is already industry-leading.
Our next question comes from the line of Nick Del Deo of MoffettNathanson.
First, I was hoping you could expand a bit on two of the tower revenue growth drivers you highlighted, fixed wireless and AI. So with fixed wireless, are you seeing the carriers invest behind it as the primary motivating factor for work on a site versus piggybacking mobile-led deployments both in the U.S. and overseas? And what AI use cases do you see as most promising for driving wireless traffic growth?
Sure. I'll take that one. When it comes to fixed wireless, the carriers are still using their existing installations to support that. So you wouldn't necessarily see a stand-alone, to put it, for fixed wireless. The way we think about it is overall mobile network traffic and mobile data demand. And when you look at the percentage of mobile data usage that's coming from fixed wireless, it's accelerating.
We also look at our carrier customers and what they're saying publicly, and they're all raising their targets for fixed wireless subscribers. So what that tells us is that's driving demand on the network. And that's underpinning growth in our sales. Even though we can't necessarily pinpoint this amendment or this colocation to fixed wireless, we know it's kind of an overall driver.
When it comes to AI, we're in the early days of this. And most of the AI that we're all doing on our telephones is text or maybe a still photograph. That doesn't put a ton of stress on the networks. It's really video that puts the stress on the networks, and it's both video upstreaming and downstreaming. And that's what we think is going to drive a lot more activity over time.
Some of the projections we've seen are showing that the upstreaming effects of AI to require a change in network architecture, where most networks today have about 10% dedicated to upload and 90% to download, varies by customers, so some of them could be different. We think that in the future, AI could change that trajectory a bit so that you're seeing north of 20% in terms of uploading capacity. So again, it's early days. Too hard to predict exactly when it's going to happen or exactly what app is going to drive it.
But it's really that video upstreaming, video manipulation as well as things like the Meta glasses that are live streaming kind of everything around you, those types of applications that we think are really result in some network traffic over time.
Okay, Steve. And can I ask one on CoreSite as well? I thought there were some local news reports that indicated that you recently bought land in the Bay Area and might be pursuing a new campus in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Assuming those reports are accurate, kind of what's the time frame for the Bay Area land? And how many megawatts do you think you'll be able to support? And maybe talk a little bit about the vision and rationale for de novo market entry in Dallas.
Sure. So we're not ready to announce any new markets yet. We are selectively looking at opportunities in other key metros that would be complementary to our existing portfolio, and we have purchased the land in various areas as sort of an exploratory foray into those. And when we make a decision to break ground there, we'll tell you guys that we're doing it.
The rationale is we're seeing incredible demand on our campuses. And this is our fourth consecutive year of record sales growth and this is the first year we've seen AI really manifest itself as a huge use case. So when you look at what's driving the success of CoreSite right now, we still have our kind of bread-and-butter customer, and that's the enterprises that need to be in interconnection-rich data center that's directly connected to multiple cloud on ramps. That's our core customer. There's still a long runway of demand from that customer.
But we're also seeing AI workloads like inferencing and machine learning, things like that, and that's our fastest-growing new use case. So from our perspective, to maximize the value of CoreSite, which is what we should be doing, it's both investing in our current campuses and expanding those. And it's looking at what other markets our customers would like for us to be in to drive even more accelerant sales over time.
From a timeline perspective, from the time we break ground until the time we open the facility, it depends on a couple of factors. Power availability is one of them, but also just the size of the facility zoning, et cetera. But you can expect it to be approximately 2 to 3 years from the time we break ground until the time that we can bring that capacity online and start realizing revenue from it.
Our next question comes from the line of Jim Schneider of Goldman Sachs.
I was wondering if you could maybe just elaborate on the cost savings program. Maybe you specifically talk about what -- it sounds like many of the actions you mentioned, Rod, would be things you would have done in normal course already. So I'm trying to understand, are you basically saying or is the message that you'll be able to sort of achieve this 50 basis points on average per year in spite of some of the cost headwinds and margin headwinds that you mentioned earlier? Or is there something sort of above and beyond that? And would you expect any nonlinearity in achievement of those?
Yes. Thanks for the question, Jim. And I would highlight the fact that in the last several years, you've seen us really manage our SG&A and manage that down. Of course, we don't announce when we're reducing staff and those sorts of things, but some of that activity certainly happened over the last 3 years as we rationalized SG&A across the board. When I mentioned a continuation, it really is a continuation of the mindset around cost management and cost controls.
The thing that is different going forward is that we have a different global structure. We have the addition of a Chief Operating Officer that is going to be bringing best practices around the globe in terms of the way we manage land expenses, the way we execute on supply chain and sourcing. We're going to be looking to expand the standard of care in the way we manage tower operations in the U.S. globally, which we expect really will drive efficiency and bend that curve down. And that will be a contributing factor to the margin expansion that we expect going out to 2030.
And then as a follow-up, can you maybe comment on the Europe property growth expectations? 9% new site seems like a lot. I'm just kind of curious where that's coming from. And maybe talk about any kind of the flavor or underlying color on a country-by-country basis.
Sure. I'll take that one. So we're seeing a lot of good opportunities in Europe right now, and we have a strong portfolio anchored by Telefonica that's largely insulated from some of the potential consolidation that's out there. So as we look at Europe, we're continuing to see a long runway of mid-single-digit organic growth that we expect to realize there.
And as part of our acquisition but also as part of some of our other agreements out there, we have the opportunity to build these sites. So we're expecting to bring onboard a record number of new builds in Europe next year. And so that's underpinning a lot of that growth.
And it's largely in the countries you'd expect it to be. Our two main markets are Germany and Spain there. So you're going to see a lot of towers there. We will bring some new towers online in France as well. And we'd like to bring more online in Italy. We like that country, and we just don't have as much presence there as we'd like to have. But what you're seeing there is a reflection of some really solid performance by our teams and earning the trust of our customers and then giving us more opportunities to build sites for them. And that's what's underpinning the growth there, along with good leasing expectations over time.
I would note that Europe in general is behind in deploying 5G compared to what the U.S. is. And so I think that from that perspective, there's a lot more runway to continue to deploy 5G there as well. So we feel good about the market. We feel good about the investments there. And what you're seeing in that 9% is really us continuing to build new sites as well as realizing organic growth there as well.
Our next question comes from the line of David Barden of New Street Research.
I guess regarding capital allocation, we talked a lot about returning capital and making new investments. But something we had talked about for a while, Steve, was kind of the pivot away from emerging markets. And I think the term of art is called capital recycling.
And if you go to Slide 11 and you kind of look at that left-hand side, it looks like there's a lot of markets that are small enough to be distractions and that money could be put to a higher and better use. So if you could kind of talk to us a little bit about what the strategy there is at this stage, whether currencies and market valuations have stopped you from doing things or if things are on the burner.
And then I guess my next question is a little offbeat. But for the last 5 years, if anyone asked, hey, how's satellite going to affect the terrestrial wireless business? You'd roll your eyes and you'd say, it's never going to have an impact. But now that you're starting to talk about 2030 margin expansion, 2030 6G is a driver and the reality that these LEO constellations are going to evolve over the next 5 years of material ways, how do you kind of get comfort right now looking into 2030 that this kind of evolution of connectivity, towers in the sky, so to speak, isn't an equivalently disruptive -- an equivalent to, say, the AI evolution, which you also expect to happen in the next 5 years?
Yes. Well, let me take the emerging market question on that. And our goal is always to establish a real estate portfolio that's giving us industry-leading AFFO per share. And we made a pivot a couple of years ago to focus more of our development CapEx and the developed markets because we thought that was going to give us the best durable growth over time and because we had gotten a little ahead of ourselves in terms of emerging market exposure given some of the challenges that we saw there with India and other things. So we've already made a number of changes to our portfolio mix there.
You referenced some of the smaller countries. And we'll always evaluate those countries to see what the best use of capital is on that, and you could see us do something there, but only if we think we're realizing the value of those that's accretive to our shareholders. So we're not going to do any fire sales. We're not going to eliminate something because of the distraction. What we've done to fix that is we've changed our operating model so that they're operating from regional hubs or through these kind of global organizations.
So it's really not a distraction for us. So it's all about what value can we realize and does that make sense? And if it does, you might see us take action. Otherwise, we're going to harvest that cash flow and redeploy it into our capital priorities that we outlined there. So again, just when there's news there, we'll let you know. But until then, we're going to continue those.
When it comes to satellites, the reason that we made an investment in AST SpaceMobile was to get a Board seat so that we would have a front row seat to this technology as it unfolds. And we certainly continue to monitor that. We talk to the engineers in the space. We talked to the dreamers in the space and what they're trying to do. And that gives us a lot of confidence that satellites will be complementary to the terrestrial networks.
6G is likely to be designed with satellites being an integral part of an integrated network. But the simple physics of spectrum, the simple economics of having a constellation that has to consistently be replenished over time means that towers will always be the cheapest and best way of deploying the level of content, the volume of mobile data that consumers demand. So while we think the satellite business is a great business, it's going to be a good complement to the network. And we certainly are excited about the developments we're seeing in that area.
We see no risk at all to the tower business over the long term because, again, towers will always be a cheaper form of delivering a mass amount of data to the consumer. And the satellites and just can't compete with that.
And David, I want to add a couple of just data points for you to think about to support Steve's discussion around us being an active portfolio manager. The evidence here is that we sold India and we took the proceeds from that sale. And we delevered and helped us get down below our 5x. You also saw us exit in different markets around the world. And again, we used those proceeds from those sales to delever the balance sheet and to help us regain that financial flexibility.
And most recently, and we announced it in the prepared remarks and in the press release, we sold half of our stake in AST Mobile. Remember, that was just a modest investment. We really invested in to stay close to the satellite business and to learn about that business going forward. There's no secret. The stock has done well. The company has done well. And we looked at it as a good opportunity to recycle some of that capital. So we sold half the stake. We used that to actually buy back shares in the last quarter. And we maintained a Board seat on AST. So we still have the ability to continue to learn.
Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Nispel of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Can you guys hear me?
Yes, we can hear you.
Great. So two questions. Obviously, the U.S. ex DISH is pretty steady. I guess if we can remove DISH from like the last 3 years, it still seems like colo and amendment activity is down. Is that right?
And just to nitpick a little bit, why is the second half of the year lower than the first half? And how should we be thinking about that in terms of the exit rate? How should that inform our view in terms of 2027?
And then separately, in Africa, one of your largest customers just announced their intent to acquire some towers for their own. Sort of how you're thinking about that in terms of your view when one of your largest customers now wants to own a captive tower portfolio? How does that impact your growth expectations for that market?
Thanks. I'll take the Africa question first. We don't expect it to have any effect on our business there at all. We think that transaction is unrelated to the business we have there. If you look at the sales success that we had in 2025, we're doing very well in Africa in terms of our new business there. And our projections for 2026 are to have another good year of that. We don't think that the acquisition of the other tower company really has any bearing on that at all.
As we've said previously, our goal is to reduce the incremental capital that we're putting into Africa over time. And that means that we're not going to be building as many new sites for the carrier customers there. And so I think that what you're seeing play out in the various changes that are happening in Africa are reflective of our customers that are looking for other alternatives versus American Tower in terms of how they're going to build some of those sites in their network. So we feel good about that business. We think that we're going to continue to have a nice long runway of organic growth there.
Brandon, I guess keeping with the theme here and working backwards, I'll answer your second question, which is the timing and the pacing of new business. So I referred to the fact that there will be a slightly higher number or contribution in the first half of the year and it ticks down really ever so slightly. It's simply just a function of the way that our holistic agreements work as well as the timing of activity that we expect to see. And there's nothing more to it than that.
Your first question again is related to kind of going back over several years and the contribution and activity level that we've seen in the U.S. and how it relates to our organic growth. I'll point out a couple of things. A few years ago, you did see us achieve record levels of new business. And there were a couple of drivers to that.
One is there was an initial phase, initial wave of 5G networks, carriers deploying and upgrading the network with C-band spectrum. That came with an initial spike in CapEx, where we saw the carrier CapEx in the U.S. come up over $40 billion. So there was a significant push to begin that 5G launch. And that's typically what we see in the industry when a new technology is deployed. After that initial wave, we do see a moderation of the CapEx and a more steadying, albeit a step-up in terms of CapEx.
So we may not be seeing a repeat of the all-time high that we saw in the initial wave of 5G. But the steady state now, more in the mid-$30 billion range, is higher than the steady state that we saw in CapEx under the 4G cycle. So it moderates but there is a step-up that's consistent over time.
And the other thing I would highlight is over the last several years, you saw contributions from DISH to new business and organic growth for the tower companies over the last several years. Going forward, that's no longer in the numbers. So that said, when you think about the state of the industry today and the 3 wireless carriers, they're well capitalized, healthy. And they are contributing a consistent level of activity in '26 that we saw in prior years, and we expect that to continue going forward.
Our next question comes from the line of Brendan Lynch of Barclays.
Rod, maybe just to follow up on that commentary there. That was very helpful in kind of framing out the longer-term outlook. You previously guided to 5% organic growth through 2027. Obviously, with DISH not in the picture now, that is coming down a little bit. How should we think about that long-term growth going forward, back into about 4.5%, and that's what you're suggesting for this year. Should we anticipate that, that continues out into the future as well?
I'll actually take that one. Back in early 2021 when we set out that expectation for U.S. and Canada organic growth of 5% or better between '23 and '27, that was based on the growth drivers that we saw at the time. And what we didn't have in our view shed then was DISH trying to sell its spectrum and exit the market effectively and also T-Mobile completing the transaction of U.S. cellular. So those are things that have taken us off of that guide, as you know, this year in particular.
However, everything else is kind of playing out the way that we expected it to. And if you look at the past several years, we achieved 5% up until last year when those transactions were announced. And so as we think about going forward, and we're not going to give '27 guidance here. But as we think about going forward, our long-term growth algorithm that we've laid out for you guys, we believe still holds true.
And that is organic growth in our developed markets in the mid-single digits, a little bit higher in our emerging markets, higher contributions from CoreSite because we see double-digit growth in revenue in CoreSite. And we're going to have expanding margins because of our cost control. So as we think about that long-term growth algorithm that we laid out, we're still confident in our ability to deliver that even in the 3-carrier market.
Great. That's helpful. And maybe just one on the data center front. Can you describe to what extent you're seeing actual inferencing demand and specifically low latency inferencing demand at CoreSite?
I can speak to inferencing demand. It's hard to say if it's low latency because the whole campus is low latency based on the way we've organized it. But what we've seen is an uptick in inferencing. It is one of our leading new use cases that's coming in. And quite frankly, we have more demand for it than we can meet with our supply. So we're able to curate our mix of inferencing partners there, and that's helping us keep the risk, the business model risk down because we're only choosing the best names in the space in terms of who can go in our facilities.
We could do more if we had more space, quite frankly. There's a lot of demand out there for it. But because we're still curating our customer mix, we're still trying to make sure that we have that right balance of cloud, networks and enterprises, and I would throw inferencing in, is kind of the new fourth characteristics of it, but because we're still curating that mix, we're just not taking everything that comes in the door.
Our final question comes from the line of Richard Choe of JPMorgan.
I wanted to ask a follow-up on the data centers. What kind of renewal pricing are you seeing an overall pricing for new business? And then back to the tower business, if you can give us a sense of what kind of pipeline of applications you are seeing. And has that shifted at all? And at some point, do you see it kind of inflecting higher?
Sure. So I'll start with the data center question -- I'm sorry, pricing. So we're seeing generally higher pricing. Our mark-to-market continues to exceed what it's been over kind of historical norms on that. So that's a really good indication of that. And then the market level pricing does continue to rise because there is this imbalance between supply and demand. And so I don't have any specifics for you in terms of percentages there. We're not putting that kind of level of information out there.
But overall, it's going up. And that's enabling us to continue to underwrite mid-teens or better returns on the new incremental capital that we're putting in. Because as we're creating that new space, even though you do have a little bit of cost pressure from inflation, tariffs, things like that, we're able to pass that through in the form of higher pricing to keep those stabilized returns kind of in that mid-teens range. So we feel very good about that over time.
In terms of the application pipeline on towers, we are expecting slightly fewer number of total applications this year. But that's not reflective of anything other than a couple of the carriers are largely through their initial 5G overlays. And so a lot of that was kind of amendment business that was likely covered in a lot of our holistic agreements anyway. So there's no real readthrough on that in terms of customer demand or property revenue.
And in terms of an inflection, what we're seeing as an inflection is a higher number of new colocations coming in which is very positive because those come in at higher revenue per transaction than the amendments do. But I would say, again, it's an overall consistent level of activity year-over-year, and it's consistent with what we expected to see at this point. And we expect it to be at that level or better in the future as they switch to densifying their networks.
This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect.
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American Tower — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
American Tower — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatzwachstum: Konsolidierte Property-Revenue +4% YoY (≈+5% ex Non‑cash Straight‑Line & FX).
- Data Center: CoreSite-Revenue +≈14% YoY; starke Preisentwicklung, stabile Mid‑teens Renditen auf neues Kapazitätsinvestment.
- Adjusted EBITDA: +≈5% YoY (≈+7% ex Nicht‑cash & FX); Cash‑Adjusted‑EBITDA‑Marge erwartet 66,8% in 2026.
- AFFO: Attributable AFFO per share (Adjusted Funds From Operations) +≈8% in 2025 (≈+9% ex Refinancing & FX).
- Bilanz & Buybacks: Leverage 4,9x Ende 2025; Rückkäufe Q4 2025 ≈$365M, YTD 2026 ≈$53M.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Nachfragefokus: Wachstum getrieben von Mobile‑Daten, 5G‑Kapazitätsausbau, Fixed Wireless und zunehmenden AI‑Use‑Cases mit höherem Uplink‑Bedarf.
- Effizienzprogramm: Globalisierung/Simplifizierung, Landoptimierung, einheitliche Beschaffung, Standard of Care und Tech‑Konsolidierung sollen 200–300 bps Tower‑EBITDA‑Marge bis 2030 bringen; AI als potenzieller zusätzlicher Hebel.
- Kapitalallokation: Priorität auf entwickelte Märkte und CoreSite, Dividendenerhöhung geplant (~+5%), opportunistische Buybacks und selektive M&A; $1,9Mrd Gesamt‑CapEx (≈$1,8Mrd discretionary).
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Organisches Wachstum 2026: Konsolidiert ≈+1% (≈+4% ex DISH); U.S./Canada ≈+0,5% (≈+4,5% ex DISH). LatAm −≈3%, Afrika/APAC ≈+8,5%, Europa ≈+4%.
- AFFO‑Guide: Attributable AFFO per share ≈+1% (≈+5% normalisiert ex DISH/FX/refi).
- Revenues & Margen: Property‑Revenue ≈+3% ex Non‑cash/FX (≈+5% cash FX‑neutral ex DISH); Cash Adjusted EBITDA‑Wachstum ≈+2% (≈+5% normalisiert); CoreSite‑Margins beeinflusst durch 2025 Einmaleffekte.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- DISH‑Exposition: DISH in Default; entspricht ~2% konsolidierte Property‑Revenue (~4% U.S./Canada) und ~\$200M/Jahr Laufzeit bis 2035/36; Management verfolgt Rechtswege, Zahlungen würden Upside darstellen.
- Margin‑Programm & AI: Analysten forderten Aufschlüsselung; Management betont Kombination aus operativer Hebelwirkung und konkreten Einsparungen (Land, Sourcing, Standard of Care) – AI als möglicher Zusatz, aber noch unquantifiziert.
- CoreSite‑Nachfrage: Starkes Inferencing‑/AI‑Leasing, Preise steigen; neue Standorte werden geprüft (2–3 Jahre bis Inbetriebnahme nach Break‑ground).
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Aktionäre: Fundament bleibt robust: 2025 zeigte starke Konversion und AFFO‑Wachstum, 2026 leidet kurzfristig unter DISH‑Churn (Guidance: AFFO ≈+1% vs ≈+5% normalisiert). Langfristiges Storyboard bleibt intakt: Mid‑single‑digit organisches Wachstum in entwickelten Märkten, bedeutendes Data‑Center‑Upside und 200–300 bps Margin‑ziel bis 2030; Kapitalallokation konzentriert auf Dividende, CoreSite und selektive Buybacks/M&A.
American Tower — UBS Global Media and Communications Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Okay. Great. We're going to get started now. Thanks, everyone, for joining our conference. I'm Batya Levi with the communications team at UBS. And our next speaker is Steve Vondran, President and CEO of American Tower. Thank you so much for joining us.
Thanks for the invite Batya.
Thanks. So I thought that we would just start with maybe looking into the next year. And if you could just give us an overview of what your top priorities will be.
Absolutely. We have a great business model that has long-term durable growth, and that's underpinned by strong secular trends and long-term contracts. And then we combine that with high operating leverage. So that revenue converts at a very high margin. And we supplement that with some select investments and an investment-grade balance sheet that really gives us an advantage in the market. And so our overall goal is to drive industry-leading AFFO per share growth. And so we've organized our key priorities around those pillars. And so 2026 is no different.
The first priority is to maximize organic growth on the portfolio. When you look at, in particular, the U.S. market, mobile data growth has grown at about 35% a year for the last 3 years, and it's projected to continue to grow at a rapid pace for the next several years. In fact, some experts are predicting that the mobile carriers will need to double network capacity over the next 5 years. And that gives us a long runway of growth for new colocations from densification and amendments. Those are those secular tailwinds. And so we'll continue to monetize the rest of 5G, the deployment of 5G and focus on getting ready for 6G. And so that's on the revenue side. On the expense side, we have a disciplined cost management structure in place where we're always trying to maximize the growth in that -- in the margin on that.
And we've been very successful over the last several years at reducing SG&A as a percentage of sales and actually net reductions in SG&A. And we've got programs in place to look at the rest of our direct costs over the next several years to try to make sure that those costs are growing slower than the revenue, which will give us margin expansion over time. We've also generated enough cash that we have the ability to invest in our business, and we have a disciplined investment strategy on that. We've pivoted over the last couple of years where we're focusing most of that discretionary CapEx in our developed markets, so the U.S., Europe and CoreSite. And we're investing less in our emerging markets.
Not 0, there's still a little bit of investment there as we work through some contracts, preexisting contracts in those markets, but we are investing more in the developed markets. And then we also have the options to buy back stock or further delever some of the other uses of cash there as well. And then kind of the fourth pillar is really maintaining and enhancing our investment-grade balance sheet as we focus on the quality of earnings and making sure that we have quality on the revenue side, but also being disciplined about refinancing our debt and keeping that investment-grade balance sheet that gives us the lowest cost of capital in the industry and gives us just that much more leverage in terms of our operating results. And when we put all those together, we believe that, that will give us industry-leading AFFO per share growth over time.
That's great. I'd like to dig in on all of them. But before we do that, maybe just get this topic out of the way. Can you just maybe talk about maybe framing the potential risk as you go through the litigation with DISH? And how should we think about the process?
Sure. So DISH comprises about 2% of our global revenues, and that's roughly $200 million a year. And so I've seen some analyst reports out where they net present value that and kind of size it. So I'll just refer to how they size it, which is $1.5 billion to $2 billion. So that's kind of the way to size the risk with DISH on that. There's really nothing new to report in terms of the litigation.
It's still pretty new. We just filed it a couple -- I guess, a few weeks ago on that, and it takes time for these things to play out in the courts. And just to refresh everyone's memory on what happened with DISH. So we signed an MLA in 2021, and it goes through 2036. After the Spectrum sale was announced, we received a letter from DISH saying that they believe they were excused from performance under the agreement. We strongly disagree with that.
And so we filed suit to enforce our rights under that agreement. For those of you who don't know, I'm a recovering lawyer. So I am not anti-litigation when it's required. And so we'll continue to play that out. And we'll continue to talk with DISH. We're open to the idea of trying to resolve this business person to business person. But if not, we'll just continue through the process. The courts aren't fast. So it's not going to get resolved tomorrow, but we'll update you guys on our progress along the way as developments happen there.
Okay. Maybe just generally in the U.S., you mentioned healthy levels of carrier activity. Can we dig in a little bit more based on where we are in terms of the first phase of 5G deployment completed? What does that mean in terms of carrier activity going forward? Is there a pause in the market? Are you already starting to see some densification? What are they spending on?
Yes. So we think of every G is about a decade-long deployment. And so we're roughly 5 years into it. And that first phase is a coverage phase where everyone is racing to get a certain number of POPs covered. And we're largely through that phase of it. And we're getting into the phase now where our customers are focused on kind of what we call quality and then capacity. And so when you do that initial build-out, every technology and every spectrum band propagates a little bit differently. So when you do the first overlay, you have some quality of service issues. I'm sure no matter who your carrier is, you may have areas where you're still in 4G, things like that. So they'll attack that and improve the consistency and quality of coverage. And we're definitely seeing that activity today.
And that comes in the form of 2 things. It can be additional amendments as they enhance sites that are already getting capacity issues, but also as they fill in gaps in the coverage. So we're definitely in the phase where we're seeing that activity. And we're also seeing the early phases of densification to meet capacity needs. Now a lot of times, they do both. When you're doing a quality of service, it also release capacity. So you can't tag a specific site all the time and just say it's definitely for capacity. But as we look at the regions where we're seeing new colocations coming in, they mirror areas where we saw capacity adds in 4G and 3G and 2G.
So it's a pretty good bet. So we are encouraged by what we're seeing there. We're seeing that beginning of densification -- and again, we expect another 5-year run on 5G as they prepare for 6G. And one of the things that we look at in terms of densification for 5G is we think that's actually getting the networks ready for 6G as well. So we think it's a smart network planning to densify now. If you look at the spectrum bands that are being identified globally for 6G, they're in that 7 to 8 gigahertz band, which is definitely going to propagate much differently than the 3 or sub-3 bands. So we think that more dense networks are going to be required out of the gate for 6G. So the densification we're going to see in 5G is also getting ready for that first phase of 6G as well, we believe.
For the 5G deployment, which is still ongoing, the carriers now have access to more spectrum. It's sort of deep and breadth of spectrum is available for them. Does that delay more activity for towers?
We don't think so. We think it's both end. When you think about how rapidly mobile data requirements are growing, they need every solution at their fingertips. They need to be able to deploy more equipment, more spectrum and more sites to meet that demand over time. So I know there's speculation out there about does it delay things a quarter, a month. We think in terms of long term, medium and long term, we don't see any delays in medium and long term. We think that they need all those different solutions to meet that skyrocketing demand.
Okay. We had AT&T CEO, John Stankey, in the prior session, and he said that the wireless CapEx has peaked. What does that imply for you?
There's not always a direct correlation there because when they talk about spending on their network, there's a lot of different elements in that. There's the backhaul element. There's the core network element. The radio access network on the towers is only one part of that overall spend. So I don't read a direct read-through in terms of him saying that, that means less activity on towers. For me, the way I think about activity on towers is really mobile data growth over time. And what equipment is available, what's the throughput available on that, how much capacity can the radios handle, what spectrum is available and then what do demand trends look like? That's a much better proxy than what they're spending year-to-year on that whole chunk.
Okay. I remember a time that we used to say every time the carriers touch the tower, the tower companies benefit from that. But maybe with the holistic MLAs, the carriers also got some flexibility and we're able to light up more spectrum with just a software upgrade. So thinking about the upcoming spectrum that's becoming available. We saw it with 3, 4, 5 for AT&T, it's just spectrum upgrade. Maybe they will build out 600 megahertz later on. Can you just help us understand when is it good for towers and when is it not?
It's always good for towers, okay? It may not be that every single touch results in an amendment revenue piece of it because as they refarm spectrum, as they refarm equipment, there's a little bit of a substitution effect on that. But as mobile data growth increases, there's a limit to what the new equipment can handle in terms of throughput. So even if you can do a software push to a radio, there's still a limit to how much that radio can. So as mobile data growth climbs, they'll need to add more radios over time. So as they're deploying the spectrum, it's good for us. Anytime carriers get spectrum, they deploy it, it's good for us because that requires them to continue to invest in the network and that telegraphs are going to continue -- that they will invest in the network to do that.
And mobile data usage still up 35%. Can you talk a little bit about what use cases do you think that the carriers will continue to support with incremental mobile equipment?
Yes. Well, certainly, fixed wireless is a component of that growth. But we are also seeing that 5G smartphone users are using a lot more data than 4G smartphone users. And so when you start thinking about the use cases that are in place today, a lot of it is still video streaming on social media and the upstreaming has more of an effect on the network than the downstreaming does. So don't discourage your kids from doing their TikTok videos. That's good for our business. Fixed wireless continues to be a growth driver for the carriers. And so if you look at the net subscriber adds for the past couple of years, fixed wireless makes up the biggest part of that.
And we see them continuing to drive good margins in that business and setting new targets for subscribers. So we think that's a good driver of activity on the networks overall and a good source of revenue for our customers. When you get a little bit further out, all these use cases that are related to AI are not baked into the estimates that we're seeing out there. There's always an asterisk in every report that comes out about mobile data usage that assumes light levels of AI. And I'm starting to get really excited about some of the more bandwidth-intensive use cases on AI. Working with a group of folks when we were using one of the new video editing software Canva the other day. And it is such a bandwidth with hog.
I mean it was causing problems on the WiFi that we were on. So when you start thinking about those types of applications in the mobile network, those are going to be huge data drivers. The other use cases that we're starting to get excited about are some of the AR glasses. And even ones that aren't AR yet, the meta glasses with the camera in it, Ed Knapp, retire but still doing some work for us. He's obsessed with those things, and he's streaming video up all the time on those. So those types of use cases are going to continue to drive more and more bandwidth increases on the network. And when I look out over that kind of medium to long term, I just don't see a limit to mobile data growth. I think it's going to accelerate, not decelerate.
And I think you've mentioned before that the current network planning has been more to support the downlink capacity and not so much the uplink. Are you seeing a change in the carrier activity to sort of support the future use cases that could be coming?
We're not seeing it yet, but we wouldn't necessarily see it. A lot of that's behind the scenes for them. So when we talk to industry experts, we're still -- what we hear is they're still architecting 90% downlink, 10% uplink. And again, I defer to my customers to talk about their specific use cases on that. But I do think over time, they're going to need more downlink. And so whether that's rearchitecting the networks or just adding more raw capacity, I think that that's going to be required to meet the demand that's coming down the pipe from all these use cases.
Got it. And maybe other potential tenants. Cable is a small portion of your portfolio. They are talking a lot about continuing to build the CBRS. Is that an opportunity?
They're a very small customer of ours today. So we see a little bit of activity around the edges on that. And when you look at -- they've been very successful in this space as MVNOs, but their scope relative to the MNOs is still pretty modest. So we're not anticipating anything in our current guidance for that. But we hope so. We hope that they continue to find a business case to do that. And when you think about other tenants on sites, we've had a -- we call it our vertical market segment, and we've had that in place for 2 decades.
And so that's things like government, wireless Internet service providers, all the way down to HAM radio operators. There's a big ecosystem out there that we support on the towers. And so we'll continue to work on that. We're now talking with some of the satellite providers about teleports on the sites. We've even got a little proof of concept for drone testing on sites. So we're actively chasing all those additional tenants, but nothing I can brag about today in terms of materiality, but every dollar helps. So we're out there chasing every dollar.
Any thoughts about Starlink and their potential for building a maybe hybrid MNO with satellite and terrestrial networks?
That would be great. I don't see anything in the announcements today that make me think that that's imminent. But if they did, we'd certainly be there to support them and help them build out that network. We've got a great portfolio.
Okay. Maybe wrapping all of that up in terms of how to think about domestic organic growth. You had given a 5-year outlook of about 5% growth through '27. We had some discrete events that could change it. Maybe help us understand what could be the outlook into '26, '27, given those items? And then how do we think about future growth from there?
Sure. So we gave that guidance, I think it was in 2021 when we gave that multiyear guidance, and we said that the way we saw the industry shaping up that we would expect to see 5% growth from 2023 to 2027. And if you look at where we are a few years into that, we're pretty right on where we were. What we didn't have in our view shed at that time was DISH selling spectrum or U.S. Cellular being acquired. So those are some things that may have a short-term impact in terms of what our leasing looks like on that. And we'll wait to give guidance for 2026 when we give our Q4 results in February. But when you think about kind of the long-term growth algorithm that we've laid out for everyone, we believe our developed markets, including the U.S., will provide mid-single-digit organic growth over time.
And it almost doesn't matter who's building it as long as mobile data growth grows, the customers need to build to meet that demand. And so we actually view some of these changes as long-term positive for the industry because even though you'll have fewer customers, they're better capitalized and they can better utilize the spectrum. And we've seen that play out over time. I've been with the company 25 years, and we used to have a couple of dozen customers because you had all these regional customers.
As they've consolidated, we saw investment climb up because it was more profitable. Even when you think about Sprint and what happened when T-Mobile bought them, T-Mobile then kind of doubled down on their investments in their network, and we saw a lot of healthy growth from that combination, even though it was painful to lose a customer over the long term, we're going to benefit from that. So we think these structural changes in the market are probably healthy for the market long term, even though it may be a short-term headwind over the next couple of years given we didn't have that.
And how do you think about churn going forward with the industry consolidation churn almost over? What -- you used to say that it's 1% to 2%. But is that the right level when you think about the incumbent tenants on your network now?
Look, it's hard to predict right now. 1% to 2% is the historical churn number. And what we've said is we believe it will trend down to the lower end of that. And we'll wait to see how that plays out quarter-by-quarter. But it's certainly a lot of the catalysts in that churn were regional players merging out of business, et cetera. And we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out. over time.
Okay. The network services business has been tremendous. And we always think of that as potentially a proxy for future growth to come. Can you maybe help us understand, is that wrong? Is that like a onetime benefit that you had that's not going to continue? And how do we think about that business going forward?
So the service business is a great business, and we do it -- the cash flow is nice, but it's also complementary to our leasing environment. By being the easy button for our customers, we think we get more long-term revenue out of it because we get a higher share of new business. Having said that, that services business is cyclical. And a couple of years ago, we did take guidance down pretty materially. And last year, we did take it up pretty materially. So it's a little bit harder to predict. It's a good proxy for activity levels on the sites, but our comprehensive agreements smooth out some of that from a leasing perspective sometimes. So it's not a one-for-one proxy necessarily.
What you can read from it is that the ecosystem is healthy. The customers are investing. They're building their networks, and they're building them on our sites. The other nuance on services is we've grown our construction management piece, and that's not broad-based. So we do most of our services everywhere, and that's like acquisition zoning and permitting, engineering, those type of services. We do that for everyone across the board all over the country. Construction management is more of a niche business for us where we do it for certain customers in certain areas. And so when that's a larger piece of it, it's not as predictive because it's more of a niche business.
And maybe talking about competition in the U.S., we're hearing more and more private tower companies trying to get some business from the incumbents and Verizon has a deal with Vertical Bridge. They talk about wanting to diversify their tower portfolio. How do you think about their presence? And your -- and as the carriers move on to the densification phase, could that opportunity be shared with some of the private ones?
Well, this is nothing new. The customers wanting to diversify their vendor base has been going on for at least 15 years that I can think of, maybe even longer. And you have to remember, it's real estate. And so there are barriers to entry around a lot of these sites. So I don't worry too much about those types of things. We're not building a lot of new sites in the U.S. today because there is competition from some of these private companies that are willing to underwrite returns different than I'm willing to underwrite than that.
And so it has limited our ability to develop new sites kind of on a build-to-suit basis in the U.S., but it hasn't at all impacted our ability to drive organic growth on our existing portfolios. And so the way I think about that is there's so much demand. There's so much growth in the networks that they can support multiple vendors on that. And who knows, some of those vendors may become acquisition targets in the future like they have in the past. And so I think it's just a sign of a healthy ecosystem.
Okay. Maybe let's move on to Europe, another developed region that has been growing around mid-single digits. What -- how do you think about your positioning there, both in terms of potential consolidation that could happen among the carriers, your exposure to that. But also it looks like there are some portfolios that are being available. What would be your approach?
So when we entered Europe, we were very patient to get the right portfolio, right terms and conditions because we anticipated that there could be some counterparty risk with some of the smaller carriers there. And while I'm not sure we expected as much consolidation as we're seeing, we knew that was a risk out there. And so when we bought the Telxius portfolio, it had very little exposure to the weaker tenants on it. So that has given us a lot of insulation from the impacts of the carrier consolidations that we are seeing. In Spain, you have MasMovil and Orange coming together.
There are some rumors about things that may or may not happen in France. We have small exposure compared to the peer group in that. And so we actually look at it very much the way we look at the U.S. that it may be an opportunity for us because fewer customers with healthier balance sheets may spur a little bit more investment and a little bit more competition in Europe. And so we feel very comfortable that we'll continue to drive those kind of mid-single-digit growth opportunities in Europe.
And when you think about scaling in the region, we have really good scale in Spain and Germany. France, we're a little bit subscale in, and we'll continue to evaluate opportunities there. But we're not going to be -- we don't feel compelled to do anything. There's no strategic reason to stretch for that. So if we do buy something there, it's going to be because it's a good deal, right terms and conditions and the right price.
And how would you balance in terms of growth versus yield? And I guess you've mentioned that you want to put incremental capital into developed markets. So that would hit it. But in terms of growth opportunity.
The good news is we have a lot of opportunity to invest right now. And so whether it's -- we're doing a lot of build-to-suits with good day 1 yields that we also think have good growth characteristics in Europe, and we're putting more capital toward that. And we have CoreSite as an option in the U.S. to put more capital in. So we haven't had to make a growth versus yield decision because we can do both. And that's where we want to continue to source the opportunity to do both.
Okay. LatAm, and that one has seen some industry consolidation. Can you just remind us how long that will take us? And then anything else that you're seeing in terms of new activity picking up?
Yes. That market is in the middle of a reset, and it's resetting kind of all across the market from the larger countries like Brazil to the smaller ones in Latin America. And it's been a low growth market for us for the past couple of years, and it will be for the next couple of years. So probably '26 and '27, I continue to expect low growth in Latin America as we continue to see the remaining churn in Brazil from Oi, so the gift that keeps on giving. And then also, there's some carrier consolidation in some of the smaller countries. And also, there have been a couple of carrier bankruptcies that we're working through.
And so I'd expect to continue to see low growth in that market. The good news is, though, we are seeing a little bit of signs that the market resets is happening. If you look at Brazil in particular, the 3 major carriers in Brazil are starting to tick up their investments in their networks. And it's not dramatic yet, but we think it will continue to rise over time. And so we are seeing some positive leasing trends happening in Brazil, not enough to offset the churn that we're seeing. So I don't want to change the expectation on that. But it is the sign that, that market is changing, which we think will give us a return to accretive growth rates in Latin America, 2028 and beyond.
Anything -- any updates on Mexico? How should we think about trends there?
Look, Mexico, I guess we have the 2 issues. We have the dispute with AT&T Mexico that we disclosed before that we're kind of in stasis on pending that arbitration. But from a market perspective, in general, that market is still behind in terms of 5G deployment. The spectrum is not in the hands of the carriers yet. And so we're not seeing robust investment in the networks there by anyone because they haven't figured out from a policy perspective, how to get spectrum in the hands of the carriers. So I think that's something that's got to get worked out over time.
And they're going to need the investment just like everybody else needs the investment. So I'm hoping to see the government and the carriers work something out there to get that 5G spectrum in their hands to see some investment happening there, but it just hasn't happened to date. So that's a future opportunity in a current kind of stasis model.
And maybe Africa, it remains one of the sort of half of your emerging footprint roughly. How -- and it's been growing very nicely, double digits. Do you expect that to grow? And also maybe provide some guidance for us in terms of your appetite to remain in the region.
Sure. So Africa has got an amazing growth story in terms of new business. Our new colocations and amendment business there continues to grow. They keep having quarter after quarter of really good results on that front. And so when you think about the challenges we've had in Africa, it's largely been carrier consolidation, which is pretty much done now. The vast majority of our revenues there are with the top 2 players in each market, which we think are stable and durable. And then we also had FX issues that have been weighing on it. They've had a great year this year, and they've had really good growth this year because FX has been relatively stable, better than what we expected when we put guidance out, and we're seeing those new leasing trends continue to accelerate.
Looking forward, the leasing environment is going to continue to be good there. FX is -- you guys are probably have a better handle than I do on what that's going to be, and it's going to be unpredictable, which is why we said we're going to kind of pivot investment. When we think about our emerging market portfolios, when you go back to why we went there to begin with, it was to give us higher growth for longer because we thought they would grow faster. And from a new business perspective, they are. You've got some discrete issues with carrier consolidation. But when you get through that, they are growing faster. For us, it's just the volatility that puts in the portfolio.
So we think having some exposure there can make sense for us long term. It just needs to be smaller, so it's not having as much of an effect on the overall results. So we'll continue to work through investing more money in developed markets and then continue to ratchet down the investments in those markets, so it becomes a smaller piece of the pie. In terms of divestitures, we get asked that we might dip around the edges. And look, everything is for sale in the whole portfolio. If you want to buy something, make me an offer, but we want to get the right value for something. So we're not going to do fire sales.
We're not going to kind of run for the exits on that. We're going to harvest cash flows, repatriate them, invest them in the good markets. And that's what we see kind of the near-term best option for those. But we're always evaluating. And so if we ever decide that we can create more value by doing something different, we will. But as we sit here today, we think that continuing to operate those markets as efficiently as we can, growing them, harvesting that cash flow and reinvesting it is the best long-term growth driver for those markets today.
And then maybe CoreSite, the other part of the business, which has been doing tremendously well, maybe not for the reasons that you bought the asset for. First, maybe operationally, it was a double-digit grower? Can '26 be a repeat of that? And then same question, strategically, do you see yourself as the owner of that asset for longer term?
We see the ability to drive upper single-digit or double-digit growth in CoreSite for a good period of time. The demand drivers that are in that space are durable, and it's not just the AI boom that's fueling it. Now that's helping with market pricing has gotten better. It's helping with not having excess supply out there. But CoreSite is benefiting from its core business, which are enterprises that need to be interconnected to major cloud providers and more and more inferencing platforms in that environment. And there's a very long tail of business on that.
So for us, the key to driving growth in CoreSite is replenishing capacity. We've got more megawatts under construction today than we ever have in our history, and we'll continue to invest in doing that, and that will continue to fuel the growth there. So that's a great story for us. It's a great growth driver. We're able to continue to write mid-teens or better development yields as we build the assets, and we have a lot of opportunity to keep growing that portfolio. So that's a great business, and we continue to focus on that. I believe more and more of the edge is coming. We were wrong on the timing.
We thought it was going to happen sooner, but we're really starting to see the ecosystem starting to develop there. And so I am convinced that you will see the synergies between tower and data centers -- and so I think, yes, we're the right owner for that asset. Number one, it's a great growth driver. We're maximizing the value of it today. But number two, it is going to give us a leg up and a right to win as the edge evolves over time. So I'm feeling very good about the investment. I'm feeling very good about the business, and I'm feeling very good about how the edge is going to play out over the next several years.
And so far, it's contained domestically. Would you consider also owning data center assets outside of the U.S.?
Our customers would like for us to. And so I think with that, we haven't found the right opportunity to do that yet. If we did, it would likely be developed markets and it would likely be in conjunction with customer commitments with that. So there's no current plans. There's nothing to announce, and there's nothing in the works on that, but I wouldn't shut the door on it. Again, the dynamics that we're seeing in the U.S., the rest of the world is behind. So there is an opportunity to get some of that growth in those developed markets, we consider that in the right opportunity.
Okay. Maybe tying it all together in terms of how to think about capital allocation and especially considering where your stock valuation is right now. And as you think about opportunities to invest in developed markets, both on the tower side, maybe CoreSite development CapEx seems to be going up. How should we think about that discretionary CapEx versus buyback and your leverage?
Yes. It's really a math exercise that Rod and I engage with -- engage in kind of a real-time basis. And every opportunity that we look at to invest capital has to compete with the stock buyback. So we just run the math and say, what do we think is going to create the best long-term opportunity based on where current interest rates are, where the stock price is and what that investment opportunity will yield. So it's really a dynamic way to allocate capital.
Our first priority is funding the dividend. And then beyond that, we do have some optionality in terms of whether we're going to fund that internal CapEx, M&A, stock buybacks or further delevering. And you saw us announce our last quarterly earnings that we had started doing some buybacks because at the time, that was going to create more value than what we saw in the other alternatives for that cash. So we'll continue to make those dynamic allocation decisions based on what the math shows us.
And can we expect that to continue in the near term?
We'll make the decisions the same way for the medium and long term. We'll wait to tell you what we're doing this quarter when we do earnings, but nice try.
That's fair. I think we'll end it there. Thank you so much.
Yes, I appreciate it.
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American Tower — UBS Global Media and Communications Conference 2025
American Tower — UBS Global Media and Communications Conference 2025
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Zentrale Aussage: American Tower sieht sein langfristiges Wachstum intakt: Fokus auf organische Wachstumsfelder (Densifizierung, Amendments), disziplinierte Kosten- und Kapitalallokation sowie Erhalt einer Investment‑Grade-Bilanz, um "industry‑leading" AFFO je Aktie zu erzielen.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Organisches Wachstum: Priorität auf Densifizierung und zusätzliche Colocations in entwickelten Märkten; 5G‑Qualitäts- und Kapazitätsausbau liefert langfristige Nachfrage.
- Kosten & Effizienz: Fortgesetzte Reduktion der SG&A‑Quote und Programme, damit direkte Kosten langsamer als Umsatz wachsen und Margen expandieren.
- Kapitalallokation: Discretionary CapEx verlagert in entwickelte Märkte (USA, Europa, CoreSite); Option auf Aktienrückkäufe oder schnellere Entschuldung bleibt dynamisch.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- DISH‑Streit: Klage kürzlich eingereicht; DISH macht ~2% des Umsatzes aus (~$200M/Jahr). Management zitiert Analystenschätzungen zur Risikoabschätzung von $1,5–2,0 Mrd. NPV; juristischer Prozess kann dauern.
- Geografische Akzente: LatAm: schwaches Wachstum in 2026–2027; Afrika zeigt beschleunigte Neugeschäftstrends; CoreSite bleibt starker Wachstumshebel.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- 5G‑Timing: Analysten fragten nach Pause vs. Densifizierung — Management sieht weitere 5‑Jahres‑Periode für Ausbau und frühen Einstieg in 6G‑Planung.
- Wettbewerb: Nachfrage nach möglichen Marktanteilsverlusten an private Tower‑Betreiber; Antwort: begrenzte Auswirkung auf bestehende Portfolios, mehr Wettbewerb bei Neubau.
- Kapitalverwendung: Nachfrage zu Buybacks vs. CapEx/CoreSite; Management: dynamische "Math‑Entscheidung", Dividende vorrangig, Quartalsentscheidungen bei Earnings.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Aktionäre: Strategische Stoßrichtung bestätigt: solides organisches Wachstumspotenzial und stärkerer Fokus auf entwickelte Märkte/CoreSite. Hauptrisiken bleiben DISH‑Litigation und Emerging‑Markets‑Volatilität; Kapitalallokation wird opportunistisch zwischen Wachstum und Rückkäufen abgewogen.
American Tower — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Tower Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Spencer Kurn, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to our third quarter earnings call. I'm Spencer Kurn, Head of Investor Relations for American Tower. Joining me on the call today are Steve Vondran, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rod Smith, our Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for your questions.
Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our safe harbor statement. It says that some of our comments today may be forward-looking. As such, they are subject to risks and uncertainties described in American Tower SEC filings, and results may differ materially. Additional information as well as our earnings materials are available on our Investor Relations website.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve. Steve?
Thanks, Spencer. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining the call.
As you can see from our published results, we completed a great quarter that delivered double-digit growth in attributable AFFO per share as adjusted. Leasing activity remained robust across our tower and data center businesses that was complemented by near record services revenue. These top line trends, combined with focused execution of our strategic initiatives, have enabled us to increase our guidance for the year across all of our key consolidated metrics.
At the midpoint of our revised guidance, we now expect to deliver attributable AFFO per share as adjusted growth of approximately 7%. Net of FX headwinds and financing costs, our outlook implies attributable AFFO per share as adjusted growth of approximately 9%, which reflects the fundamental strength of our core operating model.
Before turning the call over to Rod to review our detailed financial results and updated outlook, I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing the industry backdrop and what it means for American Tower. The past few months have been interesting and active time in our industry, with [ spectrum ] moving between key players and signals of a more consolidated U.S. carrier market. During my 25 years at American Tower, I've navigated many instances of carrier consolidation of spectrum deals, and our experienced team has a strong track record of delivering market-leading solutions that meet the needs of our customers while enhancing our strategic positioning.
Although each transaction has been unique, there's been one consistent trend: the tower industry benefits when its customers become healthier. Financially strong customers tend to invest more heavily in their networks to keep pace with demand for mobile data consumption, which in turn requires greater demand for our best-in-class tower portfolio.
Demand for mobile data, the backbone of our business model, continues to rise at a torrid pace. In the U.S., the most recent CTI survey showed that mobile data consumption in 2024 increased approximately 35% year-over-year for the third straight year, driven by growth in mobile customers, 5G-enabled devices, usage per device and fixed wireless access. To put this into perspective, at this pace, mobile data consumption would continue to double every 2 to 3 years.
Experts believe that the rapid growth in mobile data consumption will require a doubling in overall network capacity over the next 5 years, which in turn will require a significant increase in cell sites that benefit our tower business. We, therefore, remain quite optimistic about the opportunities that this industry landscape presents, even before considering likely tailwinds from AI-driven mobile data demand.
We're also paying close attention to developments within satellite-based networks. We have a firsthand view through our Board representation at AST SpaceMobile and regularly evaluate satellite capabilities with engineers and technology consultants. Our assessments are deeply rooted in data and firmly endorse the view that satellite-based networks will remain complementary to terrestrial towers due to the capacity and economic constraints inherent to the satellite model. And these challenges are only magnified when considering the evolving nature of wireless communication technology as growth in mobile data consumption compounds.
In the U.S., this demand continues to drive robust levels of leasing activity. Application volumes in the third quarter remained elevated and heavily weighted towards [ amendments ] but with a growing share of co-locations. On average, approximately 75% of our towers have been upgraded with 5G equipment. So there's still considerable runway for growth as carriers complete their 5G coverage rollouts and shift their attention to network quality with densification activity.
We also see positive trends across our other tower portfolios where data consumption has grown at a CAGR of roughly 20% to 25% since 2020. 5G mid-band coverage is still progressing and stands at an average of roughly 50% in Europe, 20% in Latin America and 10% in Africa, with emerging markets lagging developed markets in cell sites per capita. Our international customers, especially in our emerging markets, continue to invest in 4G and newer 5G networks, and we're well positioned to capture future upside as our less mature markets lease up over time.
Strong industry tailwinds also continue to propel our data center business. This quarter, CoreSite signed record retail new leasing revenue and experienced healthy growth in our larger deployments as well, driven by strong demand for hybrid cloud and multi-cloud deployments and positive pricing actions amidst tight supply dynamics. We're also seeing significant new demand from early-stage AI-related workloads like inferencing, machine learning models and GPU as a service for Neo clouds. It's becoming increasingly important for AI workloads to be co-located with hybrid installations. Our CoreSite facilities are perfectly suited to this as they have a rich ecosystem of network and cloud interconnection coupled with purpose-built capacity designed to support AI and other high-density deployments with features like liquid cooling.
All of these positive trends in demand and pricing reinforce our expectation for CoreSite to achieve mid-teens or higher stabilized yields and to achieve these targets faster and with better visibility as pre-leasing and sales pipelines accumulate. I'm confident that American Tower is well positioned to benefit from these demand drivers across our tower and data center businesses. Our portfolio of assets is unmatched in quality, scale and operational excellence. And we focused our company around 4 strategic priorities to optimize long-term value creation: maximize organic growth, expand margins, allocate capital with discipline, and position our balance sheet as an asset.
We maximize organic growth as the best operator of towers and distributed real estate in the world. Our contractual and asset management expertise continues to deliver industry-leading organic growth while passing along superior service, operational benefits and efficiencies to our customers.
We expand margins by leveraging our global scale and world-class teams to drive cost efficiency. We've generated approximately 300 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion since 2020, and we see room for continued expansion as we streamline operations. We look forward to communicating more details on future efficiency initiatives as a part of our 2026 outlook presentation during our fourth quarter call.
Our capital allocation philosophy optimizes long-term strander value creation. After funding our dividend, we evaluate internal uses of CapEx, inorganic opportunities, debt repayments and share buybacks against each other to drive the highest possible risk-adjusted returns for our business. This approach has recently prioritized developed tower markets and CoreSite to improve the quality of our earnings and durability of growth. And as you saw in our results this morning, it informed our decision to repurchase $28 million of shares since quarter-end.
And our balance sheet, with an investment-grade credit rating and leverage now below 5x, which is the lowest among our tower peers, provides the cost of capital advantage and superior financial flexibility to pursue our growth objectives. Taken together, our strategic priorities are designed to deliver our goal of industry-leading AFFO per share growth.
Since assuming the CEO role last year, I'm increasingly impressed by my team's ability to execute these priorities and deliver value for all of our stakeholders. And I'd like to thank our incredible employees for delivering yet another impressive quarter. I'm confident that our team will continue to expertly manage our best-in-class assets and provide unmatched service for our customers in the future.
With that, I'll hand the call over to Rod to discuss our detailed third quarter financial results and updated 2025 outlook. Rod?
Thanks, Steve, and thank you all for joining the call. As you saw in this morning's press release, we delivered another strong quarter and raised our full year outlook. Before diving into our third quarter results and our revised full year outlook, I'll share a few highlights.
First, total revenue grew nearly 8% year-over-year, driven by steady consolidated organic growth in the mid-single digits, another strong quarter of U.S. services contribution and double-digit growth from CoreSite. Second, adjusted EBITDA also grew nearly 8% year-over-year as strong revenue growth was complemented by 20 basis points of cash margin expansion. Third, attributable AFFO per share as adjusted grew approximately 10% year-over-year as strong adjusted EBITDA growth was enhanced by disciplined management of below-the-line costs.
Finally, we are raising our full year outlook across property revenue, adjusted EBITDA, attributable AFFO and AFFO per share. The outlook raise is supported primarily by FX tailwinds, U.S. services outperformance and net interest benefits as compared to prior outlook. Our expectations for organic growth and CoreSite revenue growth remain in line with our prior outlook.
Now let's dive into our results. Turning to third quarter property revenue and organic tenant billings growth on Slide 5. Consolidated property revenue grew nearly 6% year-over-year. U.S. and Canada property revenue was flat year-over-year and grew approximately 5% when excluding noncash straight line revenue and Sprint churn. International property revenue grew approximately 12% year-over-year and nearly 8% when excluding noncash straight-line revenue and FX impacts. Finally, data center property revenue grew over 14%, driven by a record quarter of retail new leasing and consistent pricing growth.
Moving to the right side of the slide. We delivered consolidated organic tenant billings growth of 5%, in line with expectations driven by solid demand across our global portfolio. Our U.S. and Canada segment grew approximately 4% organically and greater than 5% when excluding Sprint churn. As a reminder, this was our final quarter of Sprint churn. Organic growth in our international segment was nearly 7%, reflecting double-digit growth in Africa and APAC, steady mid-single-digit growth in Europe in low single-digit growth in Latin America as expected.
Turning to Slide 6. Adjusted EBITDA grew nearly 8% year-over-year as strong revenue growth was enhanced by disciplined cost management. Moving to the right side of the slide, attributable AFFO per share as adjusted grew approximately 10% year-over-year, supported by robust EBITDA growth and prudent management of below-the-line costs.
Now let's turn to our revised full year outlook. As I mentioned, we are raising guidance across all of our key consolidated financial metrics. Starting with property revenue outlook on Slide 7, we are raising our outlook by $40 million at the midpoint, which implies approximately 3% year-over-year growth or approximately 5% when excluding noncash straight-line revenue and FX impacts. We are reiterating organic growth assumptions across all regions and continue to expect organic tenant billings growth of approximately 5% and data center growth of approximately 13% year-over-year.
The increase in outlook was driven by $50 million of FX tailwinds, a $5 million increase to pass-through revenue and $5 million of incremental non-run rate revenue in the U.S. This was partially offset by $20 million of revenue reserves in Latin America, primarily related to our previously disclosed legal dispute with AT&T Mexico over the calculation of tower rent.
As we disclosed in September, we reached a positive interim agreement with AT&T Mexico whereby AT&T Mexico has paid American Tower the majority of withheld payments and will resume monthly payments of the majority of tower rents owed going forward. The remainder of the rents not paid to American Tower are to be deposited into an irrevocable escrow account administered by an independent trustee. The funds in escrow will be released in accordance with the final ruling of the arbitration or by mutual consent of the company and AT&T Mexico. We remain confident in the terms of our master lease agreement with AT&T Mexico and expect to prevail in the arbitration.
Per our conservative reserve policies, our 2025 outlook assumes approximately $30 million of revenue reserves for the full year, of which $19 million are already reflected in our results through the third quarter. We expect future reserves of approximately $8 million to $10 million per quarter until the arbitration is settled. The arbitration is scheduled for hearing in August of 2026 and the final ruling may come at a later date.
Moving to adjusted EBITDA on Slide 8. We are raising our adjusted EBITDA outlook by $45 million at the midpoint, which implies approximately 4% growth year-over-year or approximately 7% growth year-over-year excluding noncash net straight-line and FX impacts. The increase to outlook was driven by $30 million of FX tailwinds and $15 million of upside from consolidated operating profit primarily driven by U.S. services outperformance.
And finally, moving to our outlook for AFFO on Slide 9. We are raising our attributable AFFO outlook by $50 million, which now implies growth at the midpoint of approximately 7% year-over-year on an as adjusted basis or approximately 9% excluding financing costs and FX impacts. The increase to outlook was driven by $20 million of FX tailwinds, $15 million of cash adjusted EBITDA and $15 million of upside from other items, consisting of $15 million of upside from net interest expense and $5 million of upside from cash taxes and minority interest, partly offset by $5 million of higher capital improvement CapEx.
Turning to Slide 10. Our 2025 capital plan remains consistent with our prior outlook. We continue to expect to distribute approximately $3.2 billion to our shareholders as a common dividend in 2025, subject to Board approval, and expect $1.7 billion in capital expenditures. $1.5 billion of our capital expenditures are related to discretionary projects of building approximately 2,150 new towers at the midpoint and $600 million of data center spend. Importantly, we expect 80% of our discretionary projects this year to be in developed markets, consistent with our capital allocation philosophy that Steve reiterated earlier.
Moving to the right side of the slide, our balance sheet remains strong. With our net leverage now at 4.9x, $10.7 billion in liquidity and low floating rate debt exposure, we have significant financial flexibility. We'll remain disciplined in how we utilize our balance sheet and allocate capital to optimize long-term shareholder value creation.
Subsequent to quarter-end, we have executed $28 million of share repurchases, and we will continue to be opportunistic in utilizing the remaining $2 billion that the Board has authorized for share repurchases.
Turning to Slide 11, and in summary, we are pleased with our results year-to-date, which demonstrate the fundamental durability of our business model. Robust mobile data consumption growth and demand for our interconnection-rich data centers underpin a long runway of growth opportunities for American Tower. With our best-in-class portfolio of towers and data centers and strong balance sheet, we are well positioned to capture these growth opportunities and deliver on our goal of industry-leading AFFO per share growth.
And with that, operator, we can open the line for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Michael Funk from Bank of America.
2. Question Answer
So Steve, a quick one for you. So services revenue continues to come in above expectations, ours and the Street. Typically, that was a leading indicator for domestic deployments. So would love to hear your thoughts on how to potentially factors in deployments in 2026.
And then maybe to feather in another one, any thoughts you can also offer on how the AT&T EchoStar spectrum acquisition might impact deployments from AT&T and your expectations for that company?
So I'll start with the services piece. We've got a healthy pipeline of activity this year in services, and it has -- it's a near record year. You have to go back to when we actually owned construction management firms back in the early 2000s to find a better services a year for us. So we're very excited about the activity levels that we've seen.
We also have a larger construction management component this year than we've had in prior years. So that's a little bit of what's kind of feathering into that. But that's indicative of the the carrier activity that we're seeing. And as we said from the beginning of the year, we're seeing robust activity across the board, and that's continued build-out of the 5G mid-band spectrum throughout the networks and also some early phase densification that we're seeing as well. So we're excited about the activity levels that we're seeing there.
We'll refrain from guiding to 2026 until February on that. But we do see a healthy pipeline building and we do think that our services business will be a good robust contributor in 2026 as well. So we're feeling very good about what we're seeing and hearing in terms of how that pipeline is building next year.
In terms of the spectrum sale, again, we'll learn more about that and share more about that in February in terms of 2026. What we've typically seen with the carriers is that when they buy spectrum, they want to deploy it. And there is certainly a lot of opportunity to continue to deploy mid-band 5G on our sites. And so we're looking forward to working with AT&T and helping them in what they decide to do next year. But until they have announced their build plans, it's probably not appropriate for me to comment in terms of what we think they are going to do on that.
And your next question comes from the line of Nick Del Deo from MoffetNathanson.
First, on the spectrum front, the FCC now has marching orders to auction a lot of spectrum over the coming years, some of it at potentially much higher frequencies than the mainstream spectrum that we've seen deployed to date, I think potentially as high up as 10 gigahertz. Obviously, it's going to depend on what bands are ultimately selected. But broadly speaking, how are you thinking about the relevance of your tower portfolio for potentially supporting some of these much higher frequency bands given their propagation attributes?
Look, I'm excited hear that those bands are coming to market because towers are going to be the primary way those bands are deployed, even up into that 7, 8, 9, 10 gigahertz. And that really underpins the beauty of the tower model and the long-term growth that we're going to see on the portfolio. And so when I see what's kind of been identified by the government, some of that, there's a little bit more mid-band to support 5G, but a lot of those spectrum bands that you just referenced are the 6G brands that need to be freed up and allocated for the U.S. to be competitive in the 6G market.
So we're excited to see that that's been identified, that they're working on making that available, and we're looking forward to seeing how that plays out. As we've seen in the past, the higher the frequency, the lower the wavelength, which means you will need some densification of sites. So as we look out across the landscape of the remaining tranche of 5G and also 6G, we think that that bodes very well for long-term growth for us because carriers are going to densify their networks, it will give them more bandwidth, you'll see new use cases coming out. And there are some really exciting things coming out in kind of the early discussions about 6G and what it supports.
So we're very supportive of those bands coming to market and being auctioned. And we're looking forward to working with our customers to get those deployed as soon as they can.
Okay. Great. Can I ask one on CoreSite as well? I thought your pre-lease shares was down to 6% this quarter. I think historically, that's been driven by sort of larger customers taking big flows of space. I guess, should we think about the 6% as, again, just the product of the ebb and flow of larger deals? Or are you kind of purposefully saving the space that you're developing for more of a retail [ SKU ]?
There's no slowdown in the deal flow. We are still seeing incredibly robust demand. What you're seeing in that dip on pre-leasing is us putting some stuff in construction to service. So you're really just seeing that move from pre-leasing to actual leasing. And that pre-leasing -- new projects to build new sites. So that's just a function of the flow of the construction, not a deal flow at all.
Okay. Okay. So no underlying changes there. Good to hear.
We're still seeing huge demand drivers in CoreSite.
Yes. Yes. Demand across the space is -- I was wondering more if it was more of a purposeful shift on your part to hold space for retail where you don't see as much pre-leasing, but it doesn't sound like that. So that's the case.
No. Still sticking to our knitting in terms of how we do business.
The next question comes from the line of Jim Schneider from Goldman Sachs.
I was wondering if we could maybe -- understanding that the cost optimization program, you can give us more details when you report Q4 results? But can you maybe give us a sense of how you would frame the opportunity in terms of rough order of magnitude, directionally, how that, when you do announce it, should flow through the model? Would that be sort of a onetime thing or something that would layer in over the course of several quarters?
And then maybe directionally, what are the considerations you're thinking about in terms of sizing that opportunity? Are you trying to sort of get a sense about what is happening with the churn activity on your potential customers? Or is there any other considerations that are kind of top of mind as you scope that out?
So I'll start off by highlighting the fact that cost efficiencies is one of our strategic priorities. You've heard Steve and I talk about that over the quarters and the years as well. So it's something we've been focused on for a while here.
I would point to a couple of things that have resulted from the work that we've done over the years. If you go back to 2020, since that time period, we've been able to expand our EBITDA margins by about 300 basis points. That comes from solid steady organic growth. It includes absorbing the Sprint churn, but it's complemented in a material way by the cost efficiencies that we've driven into the business over that time period. You've seen a couple of years where SG&A actually stepped down multiple years in a row. This year, it's about flat. So we're holding things very steady after reducing SG&A quite a bit over time.
So we've got a very efficient business globally as it stands today, with strong margins, and as I pointed out, expanding margins. So we do see the future opportunities as incremental improvements to an already efficient business, not necessarily a step-function change. With that said, Steve has talked about and we did hire or create a new role of Chief Operating Officer. That is a global role, but [indiscernible] fills that role, and it's focused on simplifying our operations across all areas, in areas like supply chain, technology, service delivery, network operations. And the goal there really is to improve service quality across the board by making things simpler and bending the cost curve down over time, particularly in the direct cost area. That should help us continue to maintain strong margins out into the future in a way to complement steady organic tenant billings growth.
With that said, we do look forward to our next earnings call when we finish up 2025 to talk about the fourth quarter results and get into the '26 outlook. At that point, we will have a little bit more detail around cost efficiencies and improvements that may come from the COO position.
That's helpful. And then maybe as a follow-up, your data center business, I think you're guiding effectively to the midpoint of your prior guidance. A lot of your peers have sort of taken up their guidance and, obviously, the data points, as you pointed out, in terms of new business, are very, very positive across the whole ecosystem. So can you maybe give us a sense about whether there's anything happening under the hood that would sort of mute the upside that you're seeing at least in the current business for the next couple of months into the end of the year?
I'll take that one. No, there's nothing that would mute our expectations for the business. We continue to believe that sustained double-digit growth is possible as long as we can keep building the capacity to absorb the demand that we're seeing out there. And we continue to see increased demand for the space in CoreSite from our core customer, which is the enterprises that need to be colocated in that facility for hybrid cloud deployments.
And what's exciting about the way that customer is evolving is they're actually also expanding their installations to put inferencing there. So a lot of those key enterprise customers are expanding their installations to have their inference colocated with their hybrid cloud deployments. And so there's a very long tail of that activity.
So I think all the trends that we're seeing in this space reinforce the fact that there's a huge growth path there for us. So there's nothing muting that. I think we were just pretty close on our expectations for the year. And we pride ourselves on being pretty accurate on that. So nothing to be concerned about there. In fact, we're excited about the future of CoreSite.
Jim, I would also just complement Steve's answer here with a couple of pieces. We are seeing strong double-digit growth. You see that in our numbers. And of course, Steve outlined that that was in line with our expectations, certainly.
I'll highlight the fact that, that is well above the underwriting assumptions that we made when we originally purchased CoreSite. So the business is performing exceptionally well, driving upper teens in terms of stabilized yields on assets. That's why you're seeing a little bit more CapEx going into that business. We're up to a little over $600 million of CapEx.
And we -- not only are we seeing a robust pipeline and we're able to be selective in terms of who we bring into these facilities, we're also seeing strong pricing ability on our end, which is driving a cash mark-to-market well up at the end -- the top end of the range that we had outlined.
A couple of other things that I'll highlight here. The business is well positioned going forward. We have about 296 megawatts of power available and held for future development. That's a nice runway as we look out into the future to be able to provide condition space to meet the demand that we see coming. We also have about 42 megawatts under construction currently. That's the highest we've seen in CoreSite in quite a while here. So we're building a lot of facilities to meet the demand that we've already taken in. Those couple of record year of sales in new business we've seen over the years, we're now delivering on that. That's another reason why you're seeing a little bit of a touch-down in terms of pre-leasing, because we're just building so much into this curve.
So these CoreSite assets, interconnection-rich, network-dense, they're really well positioned for the future, not just from a demand perspective, but from a pricing perspective as well as making sure we're in a good position to meet the demand going forward.
Your next question comes from the line of Rick Prentiss from Raymond James & Associates.
Steve, I appreciate your comments in the beginning. Obviously, 25 years, you've seen a lot of spectrum deals and M&A. I wanted to just touch on one. U.S. Cellular T-Mobile deal is closed. Can you remind us again your exposure to U.S. Cellular? And then also, interestingly, T-Mobile on their earnings call talked about [ a charge ], they were going to be reducing some cell sites that were not U.S. Cellular. That's the first time I've seen kind of carriers without a deal kind of saying they're reducing things. Do you have any extra color on what T-Mobile was talking about there? .
On the second question, I don't have any color on that, Rick.
In terms of the U.S. Cellular portfolio, it's pretty modest. They represent a little bit less than 1% of our U.S. revenue, a little bit less than 0.5% of our global revenue. And there is a chunk of that that we -- that's up for renewal next year, which we've talked about previously. We haven't given a specific percentage, but there's a good chunk of that up for renewal next year. And so we'll give more guidance on what we expect on that in February in terms of churn coming from that. But just given the overall exposure, we'll still be in that 1% to 2% historical range for churn, we believe.
Right. Okay. And then on the DISH EchoStar AT&T deal, are you guys open to like doing a negotiation with DISH to kind of get an NPV value? Because we're watching that just trying to see how long Charlie Ergen wants to keep making tower payments, but you have good contracts it seems. So just trying to get a sense of openness to trying to say, can we resolve this sooner rather than over 11 years?
Yes. Well, Rick, we've got a long track record of maximizing the value to our shareholders, through our contract structures, any negotiations that we do. And so you can assume that we're going to retain the discipline we've always had on that. I think it'd be premature to speculate on what something might look like on that.
Now what you will see in our 10-Q when we file it is you'll see that we did receive a letter from DISH saying that they believe they're excused from making payments under the MLA based on the spectrum sale. We disagree with that. And in fact, we filed suit. We filed a declaratory judgment action to ask the court to confirm that we're owed the remainder of the rent under that agreement. And just to remind folks, that agreement goes through 2036, and this represents about 2% of our total property revenue, about 4% of our U.S. and Canada property revenue.
And so we're focused on defending our contract and making sure that everyone acknowledges that it's a valid and enforceable contract through 2036. And then we will have whatever discussions make sense that are going to maximize long-term growth. But again, we feel good about our contract. We feel good about the collectibility on it. And we will continue to do the right thing for our shareholders for the long term on that.
Makes sense. One last one for me. Obviously, nice to see stock buybacks come in, kind of endorses where you feel your stock price is at. Also finally, your leverage is below 5.0000. How should we think about the M&A environment out there for external growth, stock buyback? And where are we at as far as private versus public multiples? So just kind of a capital allocation question between stock buyback and M&A.
Rick, thanks for the question. So you hit all the relevant topics, of course. And let me start off by just highlighting our capital allocation philosophy here. As you've seen over the years that you've followed us, it's very consistent and a disciplined approach to capital allocation. Everything we do in capital allocation is really centered around optimizing long-term shareholder value.
With that said, the first priority in capital allocation is dividending out 100% of our REIT taxable income, which this year will represent about $3.2 billion. Of course, that's subject to our Board approval. Next is the internal CapEx programs. We invest roughly $1.5 billion to $2 billion a year historically in internally generated capital programs. And we focus those on the highest risk-adjusted returns we can put that money into at the time. And in today's environment, that is -- I mean, we're more heavily focused on prioritizing developed markets, U.S., Europe on the tower side as well as CoreSite, of course.
Then it comes to evaluating M&A up against share buybacks and also just continuing to pay down debt. All 3 of those are options for us. Today we don't see anything compelling that's material on the M&A side. We have been slightly over our leverage target recently for the last couple of years. As you know, Rick, we've been working diligently to strengthen the balance sheet, improve the credit quality of the business. We're now BBB+. And in this quarter, we're below 5x.
That is helped a little bit by the services contribution to EBITDA, which you can see in our numbers, the full year implies a step down in EBITDA for Q4. That will put a little pressure on our leverage number certainly. And depending on how the euro and the U.S. dollar react, that could move around our U.S.-denominated total value of our European debt.
With that said, it is possible that we could go back up to 5x later in the year. But we are around 5x or below 5x in what we believe is a sustainable way. So that gives us more flexibility.
And share buybacks are certainly an option. You saw us buy back about 28 million shares. We put that up against M&A opportunities around the globe. We're still seeing, in developed markets specifically, private multiples on the M&A side for towers are still elevated relative to the multiples of public tower companies.
But there's more than that that goes into our decision-making. We just think we have a really compelling set of assets. We think buying back shares in this environment makes a lot of sense for us given our ability and confidence in this business generating upper single-digit AFFO per share growth over time before you account for the impacts of FX and interest rates.
So we've got a really solid portfolio. We're improving the quality of earnings so it's getting better along the way. So that's how we think about it. The share buybacks are completely opportunistic. As we continue to delever, we will have even more and more financial flexibility to allocate capital in that -- in a way towards either M&A or share buybacks, and you kind of know what we favor at the moment.
The next question comes from the line of Eric Luebchow from Wells Fargo.
Just curious, there's been some chatter around some of the new spectrum sales and your ability to monetize them, for instance, the 3.45 that AT&T is [ getting ] which they already have in the network just requires a software upgrade. Any just kind of high-level commentary on how you think some of this additional spectrum could impact future densification demand that you're starting to see in your footprint, as you mentioned?
Yes. Thanks for the question. So generally speaking, when carriers get more spectrum, that's good for us because they end up deploying that spectrum and it typically requires them to do network augmentations that are monetizable events.
Now in any given site, depending on the specifics of the site, there could be a software push that may not be an event at that moment. But over time, what we've seen is that more spectrum results mean more leasing revenue for us. Even if they're able to do it with software pushes and kind of as an initial instance, that doesn't necessarily mean that they won't be able -- won't need to densify over time.
If you think about the the growth of mobile data in the U.S., the latest CTI report added in about 35% year-over-year. And all the experts we talk to believe that mobile data usage will continue to rise at a robust percentage and the needs for the networks to augment themselves, you're going to -- basically twice as much capacity in 5 years as you have today. And everyone that we talk to believes that that will come in part through spectrum, in part through efficiencies in their technology, but mostly through densification.
So even the spectrum that's being considered by the FCC to be auctioned, plus the spectrum that's kind of out there in the market, we think that, plus technology, will solve about half of the issues that they need to solve in terms of quantity of data that's produced. The other has to have to come from densification. And so over time, we believe that densification is going to be right in line with what we originally thought. We always thought there'd be more spectrum that came to market.
It could affect the timing a little bit in the near term, and we're kind of watching that to see how that plays out. But we don't think it changes the medium to long-term outlook for growth in our business or the need to densify the networks over the medium to long term.
Eric, I would just add on the application volume that Steve mentioned. We see our overall applications up about 20% year-over-year. That's supporting the good news that we've had in services, but it also reflects kind of the activity level that we're seeing in the marketplace.
We're seeing a higher growth rate in the applications for colos. That's up more like 40% or so. So we are seeing the beginning of this shift or increase in co-locations, which could be the beginning of densification. Now with that said, our colocation applications still represent a modest percentage of our overall apps, but we are experiencing an increase and a faster growth rate than the overall applications, which we think is good news.
Yes. I appreciate that. And I guess just to follow up on one more question. I know you had 1 customer that came off their MLA earlier this year that are on like an a la carte type of leasing arrangement. Any update on them? It sounds like things are progressing as planned. I think there was some revenue contribution that got shifted into 2026. And is there any kind of active discussions on maybe putting them back on a holistic MLA? Or are you kind of happy with the current arrangement you have with them?
We've always been agnostic as to whether we're under a comprehensive MLA or not, because the underlying business that they need to do with us doesn't change, whether they're on a comprehensive agreement or not. And we've proven over couple of decades now that we're successfully able to monetize those deployments whether in a holistic structure or an a la carte structure.
You can assume that we're always talking to every customer all the time. Ink doesn't even dry on a contract before you're talking about the next iteration of it. So those are always ongoing discussions. But there's really nothing to report on that. We're there to support the rollout. And the only real difference for us is it makes a little bit of a timing difference sometimes under the comprehensive agreements, it's kind of more fixed and more predictable and it's a little bit more variable on an a la carte basis. But if you're thinking about the medium to long term, we're going to get that revenue either way. It's just -- it may come in a little bit more fits and starts versus that kind of cadence that we can lay out in the contract.
Your next question comes from the line of David Barden from New Street Research.
It's great to be back. Good to see you guys. So I guess 2, if I could. So the first one for you, Rod, would be just a follow-up on Rick's question, which is just make sure that DISH is current. And under what circumstances would you guys contemplate beginning to take a reserve given the fact that there's this ongoing lawsuit between the 2 of you? And then on a happier note, I would guess -- I don't not to phrase this question, but what are the tower implications potentially for a space-based player that now owns terrestrial spectrum to see some new deployments that we weren't contemplating in our multiyear model in the past?
I'll actually take those just because we're already talking about DISH. So at this point, this is current, and so we wouldn't take any reserves because they're current today. And we expect them to pay. And that's the reason we kind of preemptively filed the lawsuit, is to make sure that there's no interruption to that. So it's premature at this point to even talk about or thinking about reserves on that.
When you think about the space-based player, it really depends on how the -- if they're just complementary to the other carriers and they're reselling to the other wireless carriers, then they probably won't deploy a lot of the ground themselves. Now there may be some teleports or there's a few things that are ground-based that support those networks, but that wouldn't be of any scale to be material in terms of the opportunity.
If they decide to offer direct service, then they might well decide to complement their satellite network with terrestrial sites, because the satellites don't penetrate buildings well, they don't work in dense or urban areas. So that certainly could be an upside that none of us have even contemplated. But at this point, we're not forecasting any of that. We're not putting that near our guidance going forward. So our long-term algorithm that was laid out for you guys does not contemplate that extra carrier in there. That would be all upside for what we [ bring ] out.
I'll just welcome you back. It's great to have you back on the call.
Thank you for that, and I'll use that as an opening to ask one follow-up. I appreciate it, guys. So just as we think about SpaceX deployments, the growth of [indiscernible] access with growing spectrum availability, the [ bead ] funding kind of pushing fiber out, [ the WISP ] marketplace is under threat, I know that they can, in rural markets, be a customer. Is there any reason to believe that kind of the threat to the WISP market is a threat to churn as we look forward in the business model?
Look, we have a lot of great customers that are WISPs, and that's been a component of our vertical market segment for a long time. So they do comprise a very small percentage of our overall revenues. Some of those WISPs have struggled for a long time, so we do see churn every year in that. And that's kind of taken care of in our normal churn, that that 1% to 2% that we see as normal churn. So it wouldn't surprise me for some of those guys to have some trouble, again, consistent with what we've seen in the past. But I don't see anything in there that would make we think we're going to fall outside that normal range of churn 1% to 2%.
And the question comes from the line of Michael Rollins from Citi.
Just given the comments on EchoStar, I just had a couple of other follow-ups. The first one is, you mentioned it's about 4% of domestic revenue currently. How much is EchoStar anticipated to contribute to growth over the next couple of years based on the contractual minimums that you've established?
And then secondly, you referenced, I think, the long-term guidance just a few moments ago, do you still believe American Tower is on track for its long-term domestic leasing growth guidance? And if you pull out EchoStar from that, can you share what the organic growth looks like ex EchoStar?
So in terms of the contributions for the future years, we haven't been specific about that, and that's not something I want to get into the specifics of. Again, we'll issue guidance for next year in February on it.
When you think about our long-term U.S. organic growth guide that we put back in 2021, we're seeing a robust pipeline of activity from the 3 major carriers, and we're feeling very good about the activity levels that we're seeing there. And if you think about that guidance was put out more than 5 years ago and we've been pretty spot-on in terms of the guidance for the first several years of that.
Now looking out toward the last couple of years, there are a couple of events that were not in our view shed when we put that guidance out in 2021. We did not expect T-Mobile to buy U.S. Cellular, and we didn't expect DISH to sell the spectrum and kind of exit the network market. And we'll be factoring those in to our guidance that we think about next year. But in terms of how that affects '26 and '27, I don't want to get specific about that until we actually issue guidance in February on that.
But again, the long-term growth perspective, the medium to long term, view of our business, our U.S. business contributing mid-single digits, that doesn't change with the changes in DISH. And we'll get more specific about those last 2 years of that multiyear guide in February.
And if I could just follow up to that with one other. So when I think about when you gave that multiyear guide several years ago, there's significant change going on in the industry. And so you kind of gave us this North Star, if you would of where you think growth is going over an extended period of time. Do you think that conditions have changed enough and the timing is there where maybe, not just giving a view for the next couple of years, but maybe giving new multiyear guidance when you come out with the fourth quarter results? So kind of giving us a more extended view, an updated view of where that's going.
Look, we'll figure out what we're going to say in February on that. What I would say is we've given you guys a long-term growth algorithm that we think is kind of directionally what you should be thinking about for the longer term with our business. And nothing in the recent eventually changes that long-term growth algorithm. What drives growth of the tower rent and the equipment on the towers is a growth in mobile data consumption. So as long as we continue to see mobile data growth in the U.S. and abroad at the types of clips that we're seeing, then we believe that the need to augment networks is going to continue to roll out just the way we've foreseen it that supports that algorithm.
Now it's possible that you're going to see even more data growth than that because all the assumptions that are out there and the historical growth we've seen doesn't include much AI. So as AI becomes a larger component of our daily lives and that makes its way on to the mobile devices, it's possible that growth is going to be even higher. But in terms of our kind of long-term growth algorithm, we believe that somewhere in the mid-single digits is where you should see the organic growth in the developed markets, a little bit higher in the emerging markets. And that's probably as specific as we're going to get from a long-term guide on that, because again we'll give you guys more color on the next year in February.
Your next question comes from the line of Richard Choe from JPMorgan.
I just wanted to follow up on the U.S. business quickly. What is driving the $5 million in incremental non-rate revenue there?
And then a second question on the U.S. data center business, I guess the quarter-to-quarter growth was kind of a little bit lower than what it's done recently. Was there some churn there that was a little bit higher than normal?
Richard, thanks for the question. Regarding the $5 million, that's a small non-run rate type activity. So nothing really to worry about, and nothing specific that I would point to as well. And that really is the same issue with the differences in the data center business. Really just onetime items here and there. There's always fluctuations quarter-over-quarter, but nothing material.
Got it. And then on a bigger picture one, with the cost efficiency review that you're going to talk more about next quarter, could that also kind of lead to some strategic changes and also kind of, call it, CapEx changes in priorities?
I'll take that one. Right now, we're really looking at how we can get the efficiencies in the business, things like supply chain, kind of getting a little -- some of the best practices across borders, automation, there's some AI opportunities in there. There's nothing specific in terms of the capital.
Now we do spend capital in the U.S. in particular to buy our land, and that does help manage the land cost on it. And we also get very good returns on the capital. It's possible that we could find some opportunities to do that more aggressively in other geographies, but that's something that would come later down the line. That's not one of the near-term things that we're focused on. But that's the only thing I can think of that would be any kind of a shift in capital. And that really wouldn't be a shift; that might just be flexing up a little bit more that opportunity, if we found the right chance to do that.
We will take our final question. The final question comes from the line of Benjamin Swinburne from Morgan Stanley.
Maybe just one more on EchoStar. I know that there will be more infill in the queue, Steve. But anything we should be thinking about in terms of what's next? It sounds like you expect them to continue to pay you. But is there any, I don't know, court date or any other process info you want to share with us at this point as we think about the situation moving forward?
No. We just filed it, so there's nothing on the docket yet to point to on that. And again, we think this is very straightforward. We think that we have a valid and enforceable contract. We don't think that anything has changed in the marketplace that would hamper the enforceability of that through the remainder of the term. And like I said, we just preemptively filed that because we think it's the right thing to do to protect our shareholders' interest on that.
Okay. And then just one1 more. You guys obviously went in and bought back some stock. The stock has been under pressure. I think the multiple we're seeing towers trade at, including AMT, at the lower end of where it's been in a long time. And actually, the spread between data center stocks and towers has widened out significantly as well. I guess it's a long wind-up, just how you think about CoreSite's and the value of this asset. Is there -- did you look at that, sort of the value of data center assets in the public and private markets relative to what's embedded in your stock? It seems like you're not getting credit for today. Is that a relevant factor as you think about the right the right ownership structure for this business? And are you seeing more synergies between the 2 businesses? You've talked about that over the years and whether that's starting to come together in your mind more.
Yes, I'll take that one. Look, we think that CoreSite is a great fit with American Tower. And we still believe the long-term synergies of having towers in a highly interconnected ecosystem will ultimately play out with opportunities at the edge for us. So we believe in that future. And in the meantime, we have an asset that's performing phenomenally well.
And as to the components of the stock price and things like that, we're in this business for the long term and we're thinking about the long-term value creation for the shareholders. We're not looking at a -- kind of a snapshot of where that valuation falls. And so we're -- our focus is maximizing the value of that asset and continuing to work with the industry partners to prove out the edge over time.
So when we're thinking about a stock buyback, that's really us being opportunistic and we're just looking at the value of the stock and our other available uses of our capital, and we think that's a good use of our capital. And so we made the decision to buy some. And so it really has nothing to do with CoreSite or that business. It's really all about what we think the value of the enterprise is. And with CoreSite, we're committed to growing that thing as fast as it can grow as long as we're sticking to our business model and our return profile. And then we'll look forward to proving out the edge over time.
Benjamin, I don't think I mentioned this earlier, but I would just highlight that we do have Board authorization for a buyback program up to $2 billion. So we're just beginning to tap into that. So we do have capacity there already approved by the Board in terms of buybacks.
Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I will now conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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American Tower — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
American Tower — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: Gesamtumsatz nahezu +8% YoY.
- Adj. EBITDA: Wachstum nahezu +8% YoY; Cash-Marge leicht ausgeweitet (+20 Basispunkte).
- AFFO/Aktie: Attributable AFFO per share (Adjusted Funds From Operations) +≈10% YoY; Management hebt Jahresziel an.
- Organisches Wachstum: Konsolidierte Organic Tenant Billings ≈+5% YoY.
- Data Centers: CoreSite-Property-Revenue +>14% YoY; Nachfrage und Pricing stark.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Strategie: Vier Prioritäten: organisches Wachstum, Margenausbau, disziplinierte Kapitalallokation, Bilanzstärke.
- CoreSite-Fokus: Data‑Center als Wachstumshebel; Management erwartet mittlere zweistellige stabilisierte Renditen schneller als gedacht.
- Kostprogramm: Neue COO‑Rolle zur Vereinfachung von Supply‑Chain, Ops und Service Delivery; Effizienzgewinne als fortlaufender Hebel, keine Einmalmaßnahme.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Guidance‑Anpassung: Property‑Revenue +$40M am Midpoint (~+3% YoY; ~+5% excl. Straight‑line/FX), Adj. EBITDA +$45M, Attributable AFFO +$50M (Midpoint ≈+7% bzw. ≈+9% ex. FX/Finanzierung).
- CapEx & Dividende: 2025er CapEx ≈$1.7bn (davon $1.5bn Discretionary ≈2.150 Towers; $600m Data Centers); erwartete Dividende ≈$3.2bn (Board‑vorbehalt).
- Risiken: AT&T Mexico‑Streit mit reservierten ~$30m für 2025; Schiedsverfahren angesetzt August 2026.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Services/2026: Analysten fragten, ob Services‑Outperformance ein Vorlaufindikator für 2026 ist; Management sieht starken Pipeline, will aber erst im Feb. 2026 konkret zu 2026 guiden.
- EchoStar/DISH: Diskussionen zur Vertragsdurchsetzung; AMT hat Klage eingereicht, erwartet Zahlungen sind aktuell Leistung, Rückstellungen vorerst nicht nötig.
- CoreSite‑Nachfrage: Pre‑lease‑Rückgang erklärt Management als Verschiebung in Bau‑Pipeline (mehr in Construction/lieferbar), Nachfrage und Pricing bleiben robust.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Erhöhte Guidance, starke CoreSite‑Dynamik und Services‑Momentum bestätigen das Wachstumsszenario; Bilanz (Net‑Leverage ≈4.9x, $10.7bn Liquidity) und $2bn Buyback‑Autorisation geben Kapitalflexibilität. Hauptrisiken: Rechtsstreit AT&T Mexico, EchoStar/DISH‑Unklarheiten und makro/FX‑Effekte.
American Tower — Global Communications Infrastructure Conference
1. Question Answer
Welcome, everybody, to the first session of the first day of the 2025 edition of our Global Communications Infrastructure Conference. My name is Jon Atkin. I'm with RBC, and I will be -- you'll see a lot of me on stage, driving a lot of the fireside chats and one of the panels. Very pleased to welcome Rod Smith, who's been the CFO of American Tower for quite some time. And -- welcome and appreciate you having -- being here with us.
Yes. Great. Thank you, Jonathan. It's great to be here.
To maybe just set the stage, if you want to recap kind of your top level guidance that you provided around some of the key metrics organic tenant billings growth, AFFO per share growth and then we'll dive into some strategic and operational and balance sheet topics.
Yes. When it comes to organic tenant billings growth in the U.S., which is really the primary metric a lot of people look at, we've updated our guidance to approximately 4.3% for the year. And that really represents a pretty robust, pretty stable demand backdrop in the U.S. We are continuing to see the wireless carriers roll out their 5G deployments across the country all striving to move the amount of 5G deployment up into the 80% to 90% range. Some are there. Some are not there, and they're continuing to move up. So we benefit from that.
We've seen a very strong beginning of the year in terms of a level of applications. We increased our applications by about 50%, first half of 2025 versus 2024. So we saw '24 kind of ramp up. That ramp-up in applications continued into '25, and that's been a really good -- a good thing to see the carriers continue to spend money on the networks, continue to kind of keep their networks in the right condition when it comes to coverage, quality and capacity. And -- we are I think in the beginning stages of seeing a reflection where AI-driven use cases will increasingly hit mobile devices, which could have another leg up in terms of demand, mobile data consumption on wireless networks, which could continue to drive growth, certainly for the tower industry for a long time.
And I would say the one factor that we really look to above all others in terms of driving sustainable long-term growth on the tower sites is the growth in mobile data that we have seen, that we're seeing and that we expect to continue to see going forward.
In terms of the key priorities, which we've talked about American Tower, we are really focused on the fundamentals driving organic growth in the U.S. and around the globe, making sure we drive as much value as we can, not only for our shareholders but also for our customers, having those sites available for our customers in the U.S. and around the globe is critical, making it easy and efficient for them to use them to get on to them to contract around them is also critical.
We spend a considerable amount of time on operational efficiencies, making sure we have the right cost structure. That is all of our direct costs, things like operations and maintenance, capital investments around the sites, the expenses that we have around land and other things as well as SG&A and the expenses that we see there. We've had a couple of years, '23 and '24, we saw SG&A costs come down. That was purposefully driven us being proactive in bending that -- not only bending the curve down, but actually reducing the aggregate amount of SG&A at a time when inflation was fairly high. So we continue to drive those costs down to help expand margins. We also complement the existing assets we have by building towers in select places where we see the value proposition for our shareholders in places where our customers need it.
With that said, we are prioritizing developed markets. We've increased capital investments in the U.S. We've increased investments in Europe as well as with our core site data center business, which is in the U.S. We've decreased capital investments in emerging markets, particularly Africa and across Latin America. So you can see our actions, our capital investments, our capital allocation is following those priorities. So being efficient is critical.
And the last point that I would make, which we focus on a lot is balance sheet quality. Ensuring that we have the right balance sheet that can weather any kind of economic backdrop that can support us, our customers and shareholders in good times and bad times. You've seen us get upgraded with S&P. We're now a BBB+ rated organization. We're proactively reducing the refinancing headwinds that we have getting out ahead of that. We have no more refinancings this year. That's all done. We have now the next end of this year, the second half of 2025 to be working on planning and dealing with refinancings for next year. So we're well ahead of that curve. That puts us in a position where we can be truly opportunistic when it comes to balance sheet management. We've reduced our floating rate debt. That again reduces uncertainty around interest rates and interest rate headwinds. So we're in really good shape there.
Great. I'm going to have a chance to circle back on some of the topics that you just elucidated. But maybe just hitting some recent headlines. We've got the DISH spectrum sale to AT&T. How do you view the impact to your business given that some of AT&T's capacity needs can be met through software, but in other cases, maybe in the low-band 600 megahertz, they might need to deploy new equipment? So how do you look at the puts and takes around that as it pertains to tower companies?
Yes. I would say that the -- it's probably too early to assess the longer-term impact of that transaction. A couple of things I would highlight in general. Number one is in our outlook not only for 2025, but longer term, when it comes to DISH, we have built into our outlook only the minimum contracted payments that DISH has made in their MLA with us. We haven't assumed or expected anything above the minimum commitments that they've made. That contract is still in place. We expect to get paid for that, not only in 2025 but over the long term. So from that perspective, the contract and the obligations that DISH has financially to meet that contract is pretty well buttoned up and so we expect to get that revenue over time.
That means in 2025, that transaction shouldn't have any effect on our outlook nor should it over the next couple of years. But again, it's too early to really assess exactly what the transaction means, whether or not it's going to get approved and those sorts of things. The other thing I would say is getting more spectrum in the hands of the carriers is a good thing for the industry. It's certainly a good thing for them. And it's a good thing for the tower companies as well because more spectrum means more deployment. When they deploy spectrum, they put equipment on towers, new antennas, cables lines, the whole thing. It also is evidence of the need for more spectrum because the growth in mobile data continues to go up. The networks have to continue to increase the capacity. Also augment the coverage and the quality and based on the type of data consumption that's going through the networks, depending on which frequency it goes through, they may need to densify the networks also to get that higher band spectrum, the C-band spectrum and others to be able to cover more areas to use that higher band spectrum, which gives you more capacity, gives you faster throughput speeds to use it in more places they may have to densify the networks.
They can do that with bringing in more spectrum. And if they don't have that additional spectrum, they can do it by reusing the spectrum they have more frequently, which means more transmission points for RF, which means more co-location on tower assets over time. So again, that brings certainly me back to the fundamental piece to look at for tower companies is the growth in mobile data consumption. That drives everything in this industry. We are here with our towers and our infrastructure, which is well positioned to support the wireless carriers as they continue to invest in the network and increase coverage capacity and quality, particularly at a time when 5G applications are just coming to the handsets and AI is beginning to also make its way onto the handsets, which could be, again, that next leg of demand drivers for the long term in the tower space.
You mentioned just real quick by way of follow-up before I hit the next set of topics. But -- so you get paid by -- for those DISH leases over time. So what sort of initial lease term are we looking at, 5 years, 10 years, longer?
We don't disclose specific terms. I think we have talked about it being a long-term lease with certain revenue step-ups. So they today represent about 2% of our global revenue. They represent about 4% of our U.S. revenues and the contract is a long-term contract, more than a decade.
SpaceX purchase -- SpaceX purchase of spectrum, even a more recent announcement and thoughts on impacts to the tower industry.
Yes. We -- I mean, we view the satellites as very complementary to the tower industry as well as the terrestrial wireless network. So I think it's an important element of providing that coverage to rural places in a very efficient way. That's really what it is being designed to provide not only in the U.S. but around the globe. So it is ideal for efficiently and cost effectively extending the wireless coverage into rural places, even hard to build places, so that you can extend that wireless network. It is not meant to or is likely not to be a contributor -- significant contributor to mobile coverage in denser areas. Areas, urban centers, even suburban areas, travel corridors on highways, the amount of bandwidth that is used there and the amount of subscribers is just not conducive to being materially impacted by satellites. Satellites is meant to based on their capacity constraints in their increased latency, the slower speeds of the satellite network, it's really ideal for when you get out into the very rural areas to extend that coverage. So we don't see it as a competitor to wireless networks, terrestrial networks. And we don't see it having an impact on the tower space other than it may reduce the need for expanding the tower networks out into the real rural areas. As the government looks to extend wireless coverage into some hard to cover areas, it may not have to be covered by towers or terrestrial networks. So satellites will do a good job picking that up, and it would be complementary, not a negative to our business over the long term. And we have an investment in AST Mobile. So we're deep into the satellite space. And we -- so we have a lot of knowledge, a lot of experience with them. We think it's a great technology, but very complementary.
Last couple of tower questions, and then maybe we'll hit on data centers. But a lot of folks are kind of thinking for 2026, 5% organic growth given what's happening with U.S. Cellular, which we won't ask you to answer directly, but everything we just talked about, LatAm, AT&T Mexico, how much pressure should we be thinking about mid-single-digit growth over the medium term?
Yes, it's a great question. And as you would probably expect, I don't want to get into too much specifics when it comes to 2026. We will do that in February of '26 when we lay out our guidance. With that said, we expect to hit around 4.3% this year. That still has 3 quarters of Sprint churn coming off of the billing roll. So it's impacted by over 100 basis points just from that Sprint churn. That Sprint churn is nonrecurring when you get into 2026. So we do see this year as an inflection point where organic tenant billings growth is very likely to go up from next year. Even if nothing else changes, just the absence of that Sprint churn. And again, we do see the demand backdrop as being very robust.
With that said, we do have a few challenges around the globe. I think you mentioned, Jonathan, the Mexico issue. That is an issue that could have an impact on our numbers. It really shouldn't have an impact on our numbers but it may, and you may ask other questions, and we can talk about that a little bit more. It's much too early for me to say that it will or won't have an impact in 2026.
And then turning to Europe. You talked about developed markets. Any kind of highlights to point out around your particular geographic exposure within Europe. And then how you see the growth prospects between organic growth around maybe some of the 5G build-outs versus inorganic growth opportunities?
Yes. Europe is an interesting market to us. We did a transaction a few years ago. We bought the tower assets from Telefonica. That was a great transaction. We have a great partnership with Telefonica as well as the other carriers in Europe. We are centered in France, Germany and Spain. I mean we're driving mid-single-digit growth rates there on organic revenue, and we should be able to do a little bit better than that when you drop that down to EBITDA and AFFO. So it's a solid mid-single-digit environment, high-quality economies, robust economies, high-quality counterparties. And we were driving slightly higher than mid-single digit growth for the last couple of years. So we're well ahead of our investment thesis that we originally put forward in making that acquisition, and the market looks very constructive.
Now with that said, it is a small contributor to AFFO and AFFO per share for us in and around the mid-single digits. The market there and our assets in particular, we like a lot. And we think we have the scale to compete well in that footprint and in that market. If we find compelling opportunities to inorganically invest and expand things, ,we will, but only if we see a direct line to value creation limited or risks that are -- that we are able to effectively mitigate. If we don't, we won't expand in Europe. We don't feel a need to just get bigger in Europe for the sake of getting bigger in Europe. And today, it is a small contributor to our AFFO per share growth, although it's performing very well, well ahead of our business case.
You mentioned you like what you see in terms of mobile data growth. So there's mobile data growth and there's growth on terrestrial towers, which would include FWA. I assume you're excluding FWA when you're talking about mobile data growth?
Not necessarily. I mean, in our world, the data growth is the data growth. And when I say grow -- mobile data consumption, it's the data that is going through the wireless networks and fixed mobile -- fixed wireless going through those tower. It's just data going through the pipe. We don't certainly -- in our position as a tower company, we don't see exactly the end case of what that data is doing, and whether it's fixed wireless or if it's truly mobile. We just see that it goes through our antennas, it goes through the radios that are on our towers, and it goes -- it's propagated from our tower locations.
You have a technology team just north of Boston. And what are they kind of thinking and seeing as they look at your customers' behavior and also end users? Is it FWA? Or is it AI applications, which are the two? Or is there a third or fourth category that you would get excited about over the medium term around traffic growth?
Yes. I would say from a -- exactly what the carriers are deploying their equipment to do, we don't have insight to that. We see the equipment that they're putting up. What we get excited about is the consistent growth in mobile data consumption. The fact that more of the handsets out there are converting and being upgraded to 5G handsets. And the 5G applications that will hit those mobile devices has really yet to be seen in a material way. That is continuing to be developed, and it will come. AI, I think, is a very exciting development and one that will also drive growth and activity on the mobile networks and towers will be a critical aspect of helping the carriers keep up with that demand. So that is certainly critical. Fixed wireless access over the mobile devices, I think that's really exciting. I mean we are seeing a convergence of the networks. You see a lot of the carriers investing in fiber. They're continuing to divest in their mobile networks. They're putting that together. And I really do think the industry is focused on delivering bandwidth and looking for the most effective way to do that. And it will be a combination of wireless assets, wireless networks now and for a long time into the future, and also fiber networks will pick up some of that. You'll see more competition between wireless carriers and landline carriers competing for those broadband subscribers that are fixed and not mobile. I think that's an exciting development for everyone, in particular, for the tower company.
So the backdrop, the demand drivers, I think, is just really exciting for this industry. This is a long-term industry, and the investments are long-term investments. That's how we view it. And the long-term outlook for towers and tower companies, I think, is really strong when you think about these demand drivers. And again, I would just highlight the AI is beginning to make its way to mobile devices, and that will continue. We think that our data center assets, high-quality, differentiated interconnection facilities with cloud on-ramps will play a role in the convergence of these networks and potentially tie into towers and create a digital edge or a data center edge, where you have cloud on-ramps, compute power, content cashing, much closer to the end user, much closer to the base radios. We have the cloud on-ramps, the interconnection. We have the towers with the relationship with the wireless carriers, relationship with cloud players as well as landline networking companies, and that all comes to us from a combination of core site to data center assets and our wireless towers that we have in the relationships there. Bringing those together would be another step in that network conversions. And we think we have the right assets in the right places to play a big role in that.
So last question, we'll go a little bit over, but data centers, the product du jour seems to be triple-digit megawatt or gigawatt plus commitments. That's not where you play. So if you look at your peer group, you've got one company in their sub-1 megawatt category is seeing a lot of success with enterprise, one of the bigger peers just recently lowered their financial guidance. You're putting up 13% year-on-year growth in Q2. So how do you see your segment of the data center space which is different than where a lot of the capital seems to be flowing -- performing around organic demand drivers? And what's kind of your strategy going forward?
Yes. When it comes to CoreSite, we're being very disciplined, and we are -- each and every day, we reflect on or remember why we bought CoreSite and the value proposition we think that it brings to our customers as well as our investors, which is the unique nature or the differentiated nature of these assets being well distributed across the U.S. and having cloud ramps, multiple cloud ramps in each campus location, some of the highest quality enterprise customers within these facilities, hundreds of network companies within these facilities, and we're seeing interconnection being -- between 15% to 20% of our revenues, and that is growing double digits every year. So the interconnection nature of these facilities is also critical. That type of an ecosystem is what we see over time naturally migrating out closer to the end users in the wireless network, in the landline network even to the enterprise customers. We believe that they will want those cloud on-ramp access points closer to the way they do the compute, whether it's enterprise landline or wireless. So that's why we bought the business. That business is performing exceptionally well. The demand is strong. And the result of that is we've had a couple of years of record-setting new business. We also are in a position where there is such strong demand that we have pricing leverage, and we're using that leverage. The access to power is critical. We are in locations and we have long-standing relationships with the local utilities where we're getting the power that we need. Not just now, we're planning power of 2 years out, 4 years, 6 years, 10 years out. We're making financial contributions to build substations to ensure the power is there for us. So that is critical when customers come into these facilities to know that not only can we provide what they need today, but they can build a business within our ecosystem that will be able to support them 5, 6, 8 years down the line. That is critical. That does give us pricing power. It does give us the ability to attract the best enterprises into these facilities to keep that ecosystem strong.
So we're seeing double-digit economic growth. We're seeing very good returns on our investments over time and we expect that to continue. Double-digit growth in our core site business is achievable over the next several years based on the pipeline that we have, the backlog that we have, the facilities that we're bringing online today, we see a clear path to that. When we bought CoreSite, we underwrote that transaction between 6% and 8% economic growth. We're well above that and we have been consistently. So again, the fundamentals there, it has been a very good transaction for us and it's performing well. The wildcard, the upside is extending out the edge and connecting it with towers could be a really nice addition, not only to CoreSite but to towers. We don't want to get distracted from that mission. We're not pursuing hyperscale facilities at much lower return on invested capital. We're not building large single-tenant high megawatt facilities. That would be, in our view, not the right path for us, even though the opportunity is there, I wouldn't criticize anyone that's doing it. It would just take us off of our mission. We think we have a very unique mission and a very clear focus on these high-quality data centers that we have, continuing to expand that platform, which we have been doing. You'll continue to see us do that through investments expanding the facilities we have within the geographic regions, maybe expanding into one or two other regions slowly, cautiously in a disciplined way. That's a much different expansion process than jumping into the hyperscale business.
That's a great overview. Appreciate your taking the time.
Thank you.
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American Tower — Global Communications Infrastructure Conference
American Tower — Global Communications Infrastructure Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Wachstum: American Tower sieht 2025 ein organisches Tenant‑Billings‑Wachstum (USA) von ~4,3% — Signal: stabile 5G‑Nachfrage und steigende mobile Datennutzung, AI‑getriebene Use‑Cases werden als zusätzlicher langfristiger Treiber betrachtet.
- Kapital & Bilanz: Fokus auf entwickelte Märkte (USA, Europa, CoreSite), geringere Investitionen in Emerging Markets; Bilanzqualität betont (S&P‑Upgrade zu BBB+, Floating‑Rate‑Schulden reduziert).
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Capex‑Priorität: Mehr Investitionen in den USA, Europa und im CoreSite‑Portfolio; gezielter Netzausbau dort, wo Carrier Bedarf zeigen; weniger in Afrika/LatAm.
- Operational Effizienz: SG&A und O&M aktiv gesenkt, Kostenbewusstsein zur Margenverbesserung; gleichzeitig selektiver Neubau dort mit klarer Shareholder‑Value‑Logik.
- CoreSite‑Strategie: Positionierung auf verteilte, cloud‑nahe Colocation mit starken Interconnect‑Ecosystemen (Interconnection ~15–20% Rev. und wächst zweistellig); kein Einstieg in hyperscale‑Megawatt‑Buildouts.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Guidance & Nachfrage: Management bestätigt ~4,3% organisches Wachstum (USA) für 2025 und nennt eine ~50% höhere Antragsaktivität H1 2025 vs. H1 2024 als Nachfrageindikator.
- DISH & SpaceX: Zum DISH‑/AT&T‑Deal wird nur Mindestleistung aus bestehenden Mietverträgen in Modelle eingerechnet; SpaceX/Satelliten werden als komplementär zur terrestrischen Abdeckung gesehen, primär für ländliche Gebiete.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- DISH‑Auswirkung: Kritische Nachfrage nach Auswirkungen auf Nachfrage — Management bleibt vorsichtig, nimmt nur vertraglich garantierte Zahlungen an und sieht kurzfristig kein Materialrisiko für 2025.
- 2026‑Prognose: Frage nach mittelfristigem Wachstum (5%): Management verweist auf Wegfall einmaliger Sprint‑Churn‑Effekte in 2026, daher potenzieller Anstieg gegenüber 2025, konkrete Guidance folgt Feb 2026.
- Data Centers / Edge: Nachfrage, Pricing und Zugang zu Power (CoreSite) wurden vertieft; Company sieht klares Wachstumspotenzial am Edge, bleibt aber diszipliniert gegenüber Groß‑Hyperscale‑Ansätzen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Ergebnis: stabiler, entwicklungsorientierter Wachstumspfad mit konservativer Bilanzpolitik; CoreSite bietet einen überdurchschnittlichen Wachstumskatalysator. Hauptrisiken bleiben regulatorische/markt‑spezifische Unsicherheiten (DISH‑Transaktion, Mexiko, Emerging Markets) und die Ausführung der Edge‑Integration.
American Tower — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference. My name is Jim Schneider. I'm the towers analyst here at Goldman Sachs. It's my pleasure to welcome American Tower and President and CEO, Steve Vondran to the stage today. Welcome, Steve.
Thanks. Thanks for inviting us.
Thanks for being here. Maybe, Steve, just kind of starting out at a very high level, company changed a little bit since you were here last, you sold India, domestic market opportunities improved a bit. The data center market continues to evolve. So as you see here today, which segments of the business do you think have the greatest change at this point a year from now?
Yes. Thanks for the question. So I think about how the business has changed in the last year. We laid out a number of strategic priorities. And those haven't changed dramatically. When you think about how we're going to drive the most value focusing on organic growth in our core portfolios, what's going to drive the most value out there.
So as we focus on the next year, we're going to continue to focus on that organic growth. And as you mentioned, the demand dynamics continue to improve. We're seeing improved care activity in the U.S. We're seeing healthy growth in Africa and Europe. LatAm is still a little bit challenged. But that existing portfolio of assets is still going to be the biggest growth driver we have, and there's a lot of opportunity to create value on that portfolio.
So the second kind of component when I think about that strategy is complementing that with investments predominantly in our developed markets. And that's one of the changes that you referenced. Previously, we were growing faster in our emerging markets. We've reallocated our capital planning toward developed markets. And so I'll touch on a couple of those opportunities in a second, but I just want to kind of reiterate the rest of the strategic pieces.
Third element has been cost control, and we've been very successful in bringing down SG&A. We also see an opportunity to bend the cost curve across some of our other expenses, and that's something we're going to be focused on. And then complementing that with our balance sheet. We've done a lot of work on the balance sheet over the past 1.5 years, where we've taken our short-term debt down pretty dramatically. We've also brought our leverage down within our ratios.
So we've made a lot of improvements to the overall company quality of earnings. And that's been reflected in both the ratings upgrade on our debt and also in some of the results that you're seeing coming out. So when I think about what's going to drive the investment for the next couple of years, some of the biggest opportunities we continue to see are in the tower space. We're doing a significant number of build-to-suits in Europe, a few hundred build-to-suits in Europe. And that's a great place for us to invest.
The second area that we're excited about the growth in is CoreSite. Because of the demand outstripping supply in all of our markets because of the new impetus from AI we see CoreSite having a lot of opportunity to continue to grow. And so we're allocating more capital into that as well. So as I think about next year, I think towers are still going to continue to grow. We're going to see more activity by carriers. And I think CoreSite is going to have that opportunity as well.
So you'll probably see that capital allocation continue to follow that. Build-to-suits when we get the right terms and conditions on the towers and then continue to investment in CoreSite.
Very good. One of the initiatives I know you also have underway is to kind take a harder look at your class base. Can you help investors understand the process you're undertaking to optimize things?
Sure. So over the past couple of years, we've been very successful in bringing down SG&A. And if you think about the rotation in our investment philosophy, that's helped with some of that. When you're aggressively growing in markets, you need a larger team that's invested in that growth. We've pulled back on some of those emerging market investments, that let us rightsize some of the teams there. So that's some of that savings.
The rest of it has really come from taking a hard look at our kind of global organization and saying, what can we do more efficiently. And so there were some low-hanging fruit. That was kind of the first phase of it. As we look forward, it gets a little bit harder.
I think we've picked most of the low-hanging fruit. Not to say there's not more work we can do in SG&A. But the incremental SG&A statements we're going to get now will be driven by things like automation and some optimization of processes and things like that. Earlier this year, we named Bud Knoll as our global COO. And the reason we did that is that we think looking across that global enterprise, there's opportunities in the rest of the cost stack as well.
Now there's pieces of that, that you don't have as much control over our land rents, you kind of have some escalators that are kind of contractually based there, but we have a program to buy those out. Utilities, they tend to fluctuate with kind of inflation in the local geographies, but you can do some bulk purchasing. So when you think about all those components of the direct cost stack, a lot of it's fixed, some of it's variable, some of those fixed costs, you can do some longer-term planning around and so as Bud to take a look at that across the entire organization and bend the cost curve. And this is a very simple formula. If we can grow those expenses slower than we're growing the revenue, we'll continue to get margin expansion. And so what I'm planning to do later this year is lay out how we're going to bend that cost curve and what the time line is, et cetera. Bud is still working on it. It's -- this is not easy stuff, but it's not instant. You're not going to see.
Times have taken.
Yes, exactly. But we do have -- we do see some opportunity there as well. So that's how we're looking at it. But I want to also be clear, we can't break the machine. We're a great partner to our customers across the globe. And so kind of the third rail issue I've given my team to look at on this is you've got to keep the customer service levels up. I believe that customers are willing to pay more for superior service, and we've proven that time and again. So we're not changing the way we service our customers, the way we maintain our assets.
We're just looking for efficiencies in the process.
Great. Before we dive to the business, I want to ask you one question on capital allocation. You've got a lot of options available to you, dividends, inorganic, organic tower builds, M&A. Just give us some insight as to how you think about the different return hurdles for each of these international and M&A, domestic, ground lease purchases, build-to-suits you mentioned and so on.
Sure. So I'll start with the dividend because it does take the largest share of our cash flow. As a real estate investment trust, we're required to pay out 90% of our taxable income. The most tax efficient way, we believe, to do it is actually pay out 100% of our taxable income, and that's been our policy.
We did pause the dividend last year in terms of the growth because we thought it was more important to get within our leverage ratios than to keep increasing the dividend. And we did restart growth this year on that. And what we've indicated very clearly, I think, to people is you should expect the dividend to grow in line with AFFO per share roughly on a multiyear basis because that's how our taxable income should grow in line with kind of AFFO growth.
So that will -- that's how we think about the dividend. Past the dividend, we really look at it and say, we can either further delever, we can buy back our own stock, we can fund more internal CapEx or we can do M&A. And we've worked very hard to get the flexibility to make that a math-based exercise where Rod and I can sit down and look at it and say, what's going to create the most shareholder return over the long term on that. And so there's not really a preferential rank of those in terms of how we look at it.
Right now, this year, the highest returns that we can drive on that additional cash is our internal CapEx program. We found opportunities to build towers in Europe to increase our investments in CoreSite they are going to give us better yields than the other alternatives there. But we have the flexibility to look at all those options on every year to see what we're going to do with that. And so that mix could change a little bit next year or it could stay the same.
Yes. Great. So maybe digging into your domestic tower business for a moment. You said on your Q2 call, excuse me, application volume activity levels were strong. Services business, quite strong and actually lead activity levels, but I think you slightly lowered your organic growth guidance, which you attributed to timing.
So maybe starting with the sort of activity levels is mainly a continuation of what we've seen on rural builds and mid-band 5G deployments? Or is there anything else going on there?
No, we continue to see the carriers invest in getting mid-band 5G rolled out ubiquitously across the portfolio. And so it's broad-based activity there. One of our carriers is kind of over 80% deployed one are kind of in that 75% range and one is still a little bit over half.
So there's still a long way to go to get ubiquitous mid-band 5G coverage. And so we expect to continue to see that roll out until they all get into the kind of high 90s in terms of that coverage. But we're also seeing new colocations.
So that comes in 3 flavors that I would say. The first is fill insights. And that's just kind of looking at the propagation of the networks, the 3.5 probably gets a little bit differently than the lower bands do. So there will be some infill just to fill in holes in the network. The second area is we're still seeing efforts to increase coverage, kind of paint the map approach. Some of that's being driven by regulatory requirements that people signed up to and then some of these competitive pressures.
So we do continue to see that kind of paint the map approach, slowly increasing the coverage of the terrestrial networks. And then the third element that we're starting to see is densification because of capacity-driven constraints on the network. That's a little bit harder for us to measure because carriers don't always say that's what this is for. But when we look back at 3G and 4G and where the cell splitting started there, we're seeing activity in the same location. So we do feel like that we're on the cusp of identification phase as well in terms of cells splitting and new colocations. And it's really all those things that are driving the increased application activity on the portfolio.
Very good. And then as for the downtick in guidance, it sounds like you're confident that's timing related, but -- we believe that's being driven by AT&T and given your expiry of the MLA with that company, maybe does that kind of change how you're thinking about doing an MLA with AT&T?
So it's $5 million change on a $10 million P&L. But I understand it's important to people to telegraph. It's timing. There was a certain -- I think we've been very clear that there's 1 carrier that's not on the comprehensive MLA. So that timing is variable based on when they sign things and when they commence. And we thought the activity was going to happen earlier in the year. It's going to happen later in the year. It's not a question of if, it's when. And if you're long on the stock and you're looking at our portfolio, it's a shift of $5 million and $10 billion P&L.
So we feel very confident but that's just a timing-related issue.
Yes. Okay. Very good. U.S. carriers, I think, have upgraded more than 50% of their sites with 5G at this point. Verizon has publicly talked about 80%, 90% of C-Band finished by the end of this year. So given the size of your domestic business, with carrier CapEx seemingly not moving very much, may potentially flat to down for the next few years. Sort of what level of comfort should investors have in your ability to sort of drive 5% organic growth long term?
So when you think about the guidance we've given, the 5% was through 2027. Beyond that, we said is our algorithm supports mid-single digit. When you just look at the carrier deployments and what they're doing, that CapEx funds a lot of things. It's not all just the radio access network on towers. That's also funding fiber and core and things like that. So there's some flexibility within those budgets. Having said that, their CapEx budgets are still roughly $5 billion a year more than they were in 4G.
So there is a healthy CapEx budget that the carriers are spending on 5G. And the thing that gives us comfort in knowing that we're going to hit those kind of activity driven milestones that we're looking to hit is really what we're seeing in terms of consumer behavior as the mobile data growth continues to grow at that kind of 15% to 20% in the U.S., a little bit faster than in some of our other geographies and it's the carrier behavior that we see, which is very consistent with what we saw in 3G and 4G.
So we feel confident they're all going to get to that high 90s percent mid-band coverage that's coverage. That doesn't give you necessarily the capacity to serve every person that is using the network. And if you look at the handset penetration rates, we just got over 50% mid-band capable handsets kind of earlier this year, I believe, is the stat.
So there hasn't been that much activity on the networks compared to like 4G where the handset refresh rate was like 12 months, now it's closer to 2 years. So all those demand dynamics are going to continue to drive investment because capacity will be constrained, they will have to invest more. That's what underlies our guide through 2027, that's kind of what underlies our long-term algorithm guide as well.
Fair enough. EchoStar. I believe your current exposure is $200 million annualized.
We don't get that specific, it's about 4% of our U.S. revenue and about 2% of our global revenue.
Okay. Fair enough. So maybe just help us understand the contracts you have in place with them and their ability to churn? And what years those renewals kind of have come up? And how should that kind of think about. How should we be thinking about your overall churn profile over the next sort of 5 years plus?
So we signed an agreement in 2021. It's a 15-year agreement. The comprehensive portion of that is a shorter period. We haven't been specific about that much shorter. But the noncancelable lease term goes through into 2036. So we would expect to get paid through 2036 under that contract, and that's kind of our contractual position on that.
Okay. Great. I don't think we're worried about 2037 yet. Okay. Can you maybe remind us just in principle, if you have a customer would say, like a 700-megahertz antenna on your tower, they want to deploy 600 megahertz antenna, would that be considered for you a co-location or an amendment? And maybe if you were to kind of change the type of antenna configuration, are there any kind of like multiband antennas going to accommodate both?
The answer is it depends. It depends on what -- who the carriers, what they're doing and what -- who their vendor is on it. There are multi-band antennas out there -- but I don't think we have enough information to speculate as to how that's going to play out in terms of how you deploy it. Generally speaking, the lower the band, you optimize the wavelength of the longer antenna, but you can do a suboptimal installations if you choose to do that.
So I don't know yet how that's going to play out. And in terms of the monetization events for us, if they're installing. Generally speaking, if they're installing new equipment, there's usually some monetization opportunity. There are some substitution rights within certain limits on there. So it depends on what they're doing and what that equipment looks like and how it functions. But it's just too early for us to tell what the opportunity set is there for us on that particular question.
Okay. Fair. Maybe just sort of thinking a little bit longer term with changes at the FTC, there seems to be more likelihood of spectrum option come up at some point in the next several years. Based on what you know about the potential spectrum that could be auctioned, do you see those bands as a driver for potential new tower deployments?
Yes, absolutely. When you look at the Spectrum pipeline that's being identified, some of it is to complement 5G, but they're also identifying the future 6G bands. And it's critically important that the U.S. identifying clear that spectrum to drive 6G development. We don't want to be behind the rest of the globe in terms of 6G. And so when you look at some of the things that are identified in the big beautiful bill. There are some things that are in kind of that 6 to 7 gigahertz band that we believe will be the 6G spectrum.
And it's just around the corner. I mean those standards are supposed to be out in 2029. So you're looking at commercial deployments in 2031 potentially. And so getting that spectrum identified cleared and sold is incredibly important. So we think that's a huge positive for the industry. When you look at the 5G spectrum, our customers need it.
When you look at the CTI put out a white paper that said that they needed 400 megahertz of additional mid-band spectrum by 2027, I think it's 1,400 about 2032. If you're going to get that type of spectrum in the hands of those carriers, you've got to start off it now.
So I'm excited to see the government taking proactive action on it. I think it's going to take some time. Most of that spectrum has incumbents in it that you're going to have to relocate. So I don't think there's a lot of that spectrum that's usable today. But I think it's very encouraging to see the government being proactive, identifying the bands, getting a plan in place to clear those and sell them.
Okay. Great. Moving to international for a second. I think last quarter, you increased your organic growth guidance in both Africa and Latin America, maybe walk through these markets starting with Africa, but I think the Colo side and the mineral side of the business has been at a pretty attractive level. Churn has been better. What's driving that trend? Can you maybe help us break down how investors should think about how that region should move in the out years?
So in Africa, we had some care consolidation churn, a lot of [indiscernible] in South Africa and we are through the churn that we foresee happening there. Our exposure in Africa is by and large, to the largest 2 players in each market there now. We have very little exposure to the smaller guys, even if there's additional consolidation, there's a little bit of churn, but not a ton of churn there. So we feel like we're on the kind of through that in Africa.
When you look at the care activity there, there's a lot of demand in Africa. 5G is only being rolled out in the kind of major cities right now. And 4G is the bulk of what we're seeing in terms of the activity and most of that's coverage related. And when you think about the need for connectivity in Africa, it's huge. It's not just driving telecommunications and e-mail and people on social media, it's banking, it's telehealth, it's fundamental to their economy.
So we see a tremendous amount of demand there. You're seeing it reflected in the amendment and colocation activity. And so that market, in general, should continue to see a demand driver versus kind of going out several years. When we pull back on some of the investments there. It's not because the market is not an attractive market. There are a lot of good demand drivers there.
For us, this was really a strategic focus to get the emerging market exposure down because it injects a lot of volatility into the results. You do have FX headwinds that can be more or less in certain years that you do have more episodic events that you see there. So when we think about Africa moving forward, we're very encouraged by what we're seeing there. we just think we've invested enough and that we have a good healthy portfolio there, it's going to see some nice growth. And we just don't want to increase our investments dramatically there because we think we've -- we need to rightsize the exposure to the emerging markets.
Fair enough. LatAm, leasing activities there have been sluggish for a little while now. How are you thinking about how long will you kind of hang out in this kind of low single-digit growth rate? And when can we start to see an improvement in more accurately reflects kind of the underlying trends in the market.
Yes. So the carrier consolidation churn in LatAm has been significant for a couple of years now. And that will at least last through 2027 we do think that we'll be through the bulk of it by the end of 2027. And in Brazil, in particular, we have Oi churn, some of it structured, some of that's the remaining wireline business that will wind down, and that's keeping Brazil constrained.
In some of the smaller markets there, we've had other care consolidation that continues kind of to ripple through the numbers. And then in Mexico, we've highlighted an issue in the past week that we have with the customer who's not paying us right now. It's part of a contractual dispute.
So when you kind of look at all those things, we expect to be through those issues by 2028. When you think about the dynamics of the markets, we're already seeing an improvement in Brazil. So we're seeing 3 well-capitalized customers. They're starting to accelerate their investments in the market. So we think that market is going to continue to accelerate and get better over time.
Mexico is a market still needs to figure out how to get spectrum in the hands of the customers. They don't have the 5G spectrum deployed in a way that they can build robust networks. So we're expecting that to get fixed in the next couple of years. And so you should see some acceleration in Mexico. And with the smaller countries, it's a mixed bag on 5G.
So Latin America in general is going to be challenged for us in the next couple of years. And so again, we've tried to telegraph very clearly low single-digit growth because of the carrier consolidation churn that we're seeing there. But we do think we'll be through that, and we'll see an acceleration in 2028 and beyond.
Great. maybe ending up on Europe. You reiterated your organic growth guidance there. I think a lot of investors have been surprised the durability of growth there. Maybe unpack for us what's happening on the ground? And in which countries are you seeing sort of the most demand or the most interesting trends happening?
Sure. This all comes back to being very selective about the portfolios you buy and making sure the terms of conditions are right. And we've talked a lot about why we didn't go bigger into other countries in Europe. And so for us, Europe means Spain, Germany and France. And when you look at the Telefonica portfolio, the Telxius deal that we did, most of the revenue comes from the anchor tenant, Telefonica. So as you've had some churn there, we have a lot less exposure to that than other people do because there's not as much third-party revenue on that portfolio. And we are seeing healthy demand drivers because they're the market leader. So when you think about other carriers deploying to try to get parity and they're trying to get parity to telephonic because they're a market leader. And so for us, the demand is really coming in predominantly Spanish, Germany, France has got healthy growth, but it's a much smaller market for us.
And it's largely driven by the same thing that's driving in the U.S. It's mid-band 5G coverage. Europe is just a little over half in terms of their mid-band coverage they have a stated goal of getting more ubiquitous coverage by 2030, and they're a little bit behind on that.
So that's going to continue to be a demand driver for us. And then you are seeing new colocations and build-to-suits as well that we're doing in those markets and that's predominantly driven by trying to get better coverage in smaller towns. The networks in Europe are much more skewed toward the population centers, and there have been government incentive programs out there. Some of it is tied to the spectrum licenses and some of it is just tied to antennas to get better 5G coverage in the more -- I won't say, rural areas, but the less urban areas of Europe. And those are really the demand drivers driving the new colocations. And then in Germany, we do have one in one is still building kind of very methodically building their network.
So from our perspective, we see these growth trends as being durable because our churn will continue to be low, and they're going to continue to build out 5G and that's going to be a good driver for us going forward.
Got it. Data centers and CoreSite. We cannot get through for 1 of these presentations at the conference without talking about AI. So let me get right to it, we've started to see AI inferencing pick up as a business among many of your customers. I think it's against the reason of CoreSite should benefit from that. How do you think that plays out? And when would you expect to see CoreSite benefits more directly from the inference market?
We're benefiting directly today. So if you look at the new business funnel that's coming in, we have a lot of AI applications coming in. It comes in a couple of different flavors.
The AI companies want to host our distribution in a highly interconnected ecosystem. So you'll see them put kind of some smaller installations and just to get connectivity to their customer base in there. But the other thing that we're seeing is the enterprise customer that's been our bread and butter customer for a long time, they're also building their own inferencing models.
,
So -- and this is something we didn't -- even 6 months ago, we didn't think this was really going to be that material. Now I think it's going to be huge. A company that wants to use cloud tools, that wants to use an LLM to train their own inferencing model, but use their data needs to be highly interconnected right at the source of those cloud on ramps. And the AI companies are putting their own kind of a version of an on-ramp in those same facilities, which is CoreSite. And that's going to continue to feed that ecosystem.
So we're seeing that today. We're seeing enterprises that say, okay, I've got my data house here. I've got my machine learning module here. I want to put my GPU stat from my inferencing model right next to it. And we're seeing a lot of demand for that right now. And that's got a very long tail to it. So I think you're going to continue to see CoreSite experience elevated demand for the foreseeable future, and AI is a huge driver of that. And I also think when you think about the interconnection ecosystem, it's even more valuable today than we thought it was 3 years ago when we bought it because that same distribution hub is what has to be used to get to the population centers for the AI inferencing model, at one point, without inferencing not close to the LLMs, it's not going to. That's not where they want to put it. They need to put it near the population.
So I'm very excited about what that means for CoreSite, its growth trajectory. And then that will actually spill over the wireless networks, too, because as we start using our phones for more and more AI applications that will put demand on the network. So it's a game changer.
Yes. And I think that sort of edge compute thesis was part of your rationale for doing CoreSite in the beginning. Has that kind of played out as you thought? Or do you think we're now kind of like finally catching up to fulfill that thesis. And have you actually had any discussions with your customers about putting compute at the base of your towers.
So it's later than we thought it was going to be. But yes, I think we're starting to get there now. We are having discussions with customers about it. It's still in the early stages of it though. There's still some technological things that have to be figured out to make it work. And that's why we built a small facility in Raleigh at the base of a tower is to kind of set up a playground so that you can have customers come in there and interact together in a way they never had before, because they've got to figure out some challenges in their networks to make it work. But again, it's -- I look at that as a matter of when not if.
It's not happen as fast as we thought, but it's going to play out over time. But even without the edge compute, you are still going to see demand on the wireless networks from AI. Today, it's text and still photos. It's not a high-bandwidth driver. As AI evolves into video applications and things like facial recognition technology and wearables and things like that, that's going to require so much upload capacity that the networks don't have today.
That's going to be a driver. When, I don't know, but it's going to be.
Yes. Fair enough. A couple of financials to round this out. With the potential churn from Sprint coming and what other events are on the horizon, how should investors think about the growth algorithm for the company financially over the medium and long term. In other words, X percent topline growth translates to Y EBITDA and FFO?
Yes. Let me just run through the elements of the algorithm for you on that because it's a little complicated. To be clear, we're past Sprint churn. The last tranche was at the end of Q3 last year. So once we get to Q4, we're clean this year on Sprint churn finally. When you think about that long-term algorithm, the mid-single-digit growth, OTBG in the developed markets, plus slightly higher in the emerging markets once we get past the churn. If you just think about -- we actually put a chart out this year, how it affected this year, that's kind of where we were this year, and that led to about 6% growth in AFFO. And then CoreSite and a little bit of savings added another 2.5%.
So kind of the core growth rate of the business was about 8.5% this year. And that's kind of what the algorithm over time should give you mid-single-digit growth in the developed markets, a little bit better in the emerging markets. CoreSite growing faster but being a smaller piece, a little bit of cost savings. But then we had some headwinds this year. And those headwinds are going to persist for a little while, refinancing is going to be a headwind for us for a couple of years. If you look at the debt that we have to refinance next year at a similar level than it was this year. And I'm not going to speculate what interest rates are, but if you assume similar headwinds have kind of a similar kind of a deduction from AFFO that we had this year, '27 a little bit higher because we have some asset-backed securities for renewal. But once you get to 2028, a lot of what you're refinancing has already been refinanced to 2023. So those headwinds will die out in the cost of interest rate environment. Interest rates get better, it's a little bit better, worse, a little bit worse, but I'm not going to speculate on that. And then FX continues to be volatile. And when we kind of put that chart out, the Q4 chart that we put out in Q1. It was -- I think we were anticipating headwinds on call it, 2.5%, 3%, somewhere in that range. Now it's looking more like 1%, kind of the forward-looking piece of it, but moderated a bit, but that's going to continue to be a headwind that kind of happens and then the other thing that we're keeping an eye on is cash taxes because in those international markets, as those markets grow, you'll have a little bit of cash tax headwinds on that. So as we put all those things together, we think that gives you a durable mid-to-upper single-digit growth rate over time and the difference between the mid and the upper is how you anticipate some of those headwinds and if you have a little bit of variability in growth year-to-year. And so that's how we think about it.
Now that is -- that's kind of on the steady-state business. And so that's not anticipating a huge inflection from AI, spiking up demand in the U.S., it's not anticipating a new carrier or entry or there's a lot of speculation on things that could drive that up and they are absolutely some things that you could be optimistic about and see us doing a little bit better than that. But from an expectation setting perspective, we're looking at it saying that mid-to-upper single digit is in a steady-state business, what we think that we're capable of delivering kind of given the current environment that we're in.
Okay. Very good. I think we'll almost out of time. So when we end it there. But thank you much Steve for being with us. We appreciate it.
Thanks.
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American Tower — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
American Tower — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
📊 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: American Tower setzt auf organisches Wachstum des Kernturmporfolios, ergänzt durch selektive Investitionen in entwickelten Märkten (vor allem Europa) und CoreSite (Rechenzentren).
- Treiber: Mid‑Band‑5G‑Rollout, Colocations, Densifizierung und ein schneller anziehender AI‑Bedarf treiben Nachfrage.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Portfoliostrategie: Capital reallocated weg von Emerging Markets hin zu entwickelten Märkten; zahlreiche Build‑to‑suits in Europa geplant.
- CoreSite: Management sieht deutlich erhöhte Nachfrage durch AI/Inference; CoreSite erhält Priorität in der Kapitalvergabe.
- Kosten & Bilanz: SG&A (Vertriebs‑, Verwaltungs‑ und Gemeinkosten) zurückgeführt, Bud Knoll als Global COO zur weiteren Kostendämpfung; kurzfristige Verschuldung reduziert, Rating verbessert.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Kapitalallokation: Für 2026/27 höchste Renditen erwartet aus internem CapEx (Europa‑Builds, CoreSite) — diese Option wird derzeit priorisiert gegenüber Buybacks/M&A.
- CoreSite‑Signale: Management sieht AI‑Inferenz bereits im Funnel; Edge‑Tests (Raleigh) laufen, Nachfrage als „größer als erwartet“ beschrieben.
- Dividendepolitik: Dividende soll langfristig ungefähr mit AFFO (Adjusted Funds From Operations)‑Wachstum steigen; Wachstumswiederaufnahme nach Pause.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Carrier‑Timing: Nachfrage‑/Guidance‑Abweichung (≈$5M on P&L) als Timing‑Effekt angegeben; Management blieb vage zu exaktem MLA‑Timing mit einem großen Carrier (AT&T‑Thematik).
- Customer‑Kontrakte: EchoStar‑Exposition nur prozentual genannt (~4% U.S. Umsatz); konkrete Vertragsdetails wurden nicht offengelegt.
- Risiken & Offene Punkte: Monetarisierung bei Antennenwechseln „depends“; Refinanzierungs‑ und Zinsheadwinds werden als temporär, aber nicht quantifiziert beschrieben; LatAm‑Konsolidierungs‑Churn läuft voraussichtlich bis 2027/2028.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Einordnung: Positives, thematisch klares Management‑Narrativ: CoreSite und selektive Europa‑Builds sind Wachstumstreiber, Kosten‑ und Bilanzverbesserungen reduzieren Risiko. Kurzfristig bleiben Refinanzierung, FX und LatAm‑Churn Belastungen; mittel‑ bis langfristig stabile mid‑to‑upper‑single‑digit AFFO‑Erwartung.
American Tower — Citi’s 2025 Global Technology
1. Question Answer
[Audio Gap] and infrastructure for Citi. Just a quick housekeeping item. Disclosures are available at the back of the room. If you don't have access or would like another copy, please e-mail me at [email protected], and we'll get those to you. It's a pleasure to welcome back Steve Vondran, President and CEO of American Tower. Steve, thank you so much for being with us today.
Well, thanks for inviting us.
So maybe to get us started, we'll start maybe high level and get into some of the particulars of the regional segments. But maybe just provide us with an update on American Tower's strategy to enhance financial performance and improve value for shareholders.
Yes, happy to. As we laid out about 18 months ago, we're laser focused on several key priorities for the portfolio. And the first and foremost is to maximize organic growth across the portfolio. That's going to deliver the best bang for the buck for our shareholders. And that's our #1 priority. It's focused on organic growth. Second is we will selectively deploy capital predominantly in our developed markets to further enhance the portfolio, have more assets to sell and that will complement that growth as well.
You couple those 2 things with a very disciplined approach to costs. And we've been very successful in bringing down SG&A over the past couple of years. And now we're turning to kind of the bigger cost stack. And the goal there is to keep our costs growing slower than our revenue. And that could be challenging in an inflationary environment, but we think we can do it, and we believe that we'll continue to offer an expanding gross margin that creates value for our shareholders.
And then finally, it's focusing on our balance sheet as a strategic asset, making sure that we've got a balance sheet that can withstand the up and downs of the market, that is less subject to volatility than it has been in the past. At one point, our floating rate debt was a little bit higher. We've brought that down, making the balance sheet an asset and making sure that we do have dry powder when there are other opportunities to invest as well.
So when you combine all of those with the backdrop of our industry, which is still an incredibly strong industry, mobile data growth continues to grow in our developed markets in that kind of 15% to 20% range. In the emerging markets, it could be around that range or even higher. And that means our carrier customers have to continue to deploy assets across the globe. So we see a very long horizon of investment by the carrier customers that's going to drive tremendous growth and a lot of value for our shareholders over time.
And so maybe drilling down just on some of that for a moment. You mentioned this transition, increasing mix towards the developed markets with the investments. You've also in the past talked about optimization of the portfolio. Are you through all of that optimization? Or is there more to go?
So when you think about the international markets in general, the reason that we originally went into those markets is we've had 2 thesis that underpinned the investment there. The first is that we could leverage our operational capabilities to provide a differentiated value proposition for the customers that would give us the chance to drive better returns than anybody else could in those markets. And we've been phenomenally successful with that. I can tell you without any hesitation, we are the best operator on every continent we operate, and we get paid for that. We get to charge a premium for that operational excellence.
The second leg of that was that by investing in those markets that were a little bit further behind the technology curve that we could enhance and elongate our growth curve as a company. And that's where we've struggled a little bit in some of the emerging markets. And it really comes down to kind of 3 categories of things that happen in those markets. The first is additional carrier consolidation beyond what you see in the developed markets, the second is you're more subject to one-off things that happen in those markets and the third is FX has been a little bit more than what we underwrote in those. And I'll actually use Latin America as an example of kind of how those 3 have played out to be more challenging for us.
When you look at carrier consolidation in Latin America, and we've been very clear that Latin America is a challenge for the next couple of years for us. We've seen Telefonica exit Mexico. We've seen Oi that kind of sold itself to its 3 competitors in Brazil, and you continue to see some smaller consolidations in the other countries we're in there as well. And so that's put some challenge into the growth there because you're having churn from those carrier consolidation.
The second thing is you have more one-off items that happen in the emerging markets, that happen in developed markets. In fact, last quarter, we disclosed that we have a customer who has initiated an arbitration on some of the contractual provisions and the calculation of rents in the market. I actually want to give a little bit more clarity on that than what we gave there. That customer is AT&T Mexico. Their annual rents are about $300 million. And we took an additional reserve in Q2 on that because as part of that, they've stopped paying tower rents this year. So the AR has gone up there. And we feel really good about the contractual provisions, and we intend to fully defend ourselves in the arbitration and use all the legal remedies.
But that's an example of the one-off item that can lead to more volatility in those earnings because we may have to book additional reserves if they keep withholding payment. And then the third issue that we see in those developed markets is really FX. And in some years, it's a benefit and in some years, it's a big decrement. And over the past several years, the dollar has been stronger than historically it has against some of those currencies. So it's been a real headwind for us. So when you add all those things together that really leads to more volatility in those markets.
But we believe that there are still good markets that will deliver growth in excess of our developed markets over time. But that volatility decreases the quality of earnings that we have and it makes us a little bit more subject to those things that we don't control. And so strategically, what we said is we're going to pivot more of our investments to developed markets. We did divest India. And before we divested India, about 40% of our AFFO came from emerging markets. After we divested India, it's about 25%.
And we still think we should decrease that. Now we haven't set a specific target for that. But as we continue to invest in developed markets versus emerging markets that mix will generally kind of come down over time. Again, we think they're an appropriate part of our portfolio. It just needs to be a smaller piece of it. So when we think about strategically where the company needs to be, it's more focused on developed markets, a little bit less interest in the emerging markets and then going back to those kind of key strategic priorities.
Now you asked about further divestitures, et cetera. We did also divest fiber in Mexico, in South America -- or South Africa, sorry. And there are some markets that we've designated as kind of noncore or that we are not at our subscale in. But what we've done is, we've changed the way we operate those, to operate them from regional hubs. So there's no compelling need to get rid of them. They're not a drag on the business. So we're not going to do any fire sales. But if we found somebody else who wanted those assets and are willing to pay more than what we think they're worth to our shareholders, we would certainly look at that. Look, I grew up in a family owned business. Everything is for sale at the right price, but I'm not going to do any fire sales in terms of divestitures.
And just going back for a moment. So this customer that you've entered arbitration with, you mentioned $300 million of annual rent, what's the range of outcomes that investors should keep in mind from that process?
Look, we're not going to speculate any kind of worst-case scenarios on that. We feel very good about our contract. We feel that it's very clear in terms of what we should be collecting on it. And so we'll continue to pursue that. And as the arbitration develops, we'll let people know. We just want to be a little more clear on what that disclosure was because if this payment pause continues, we could be taking additional reserves in addition to what we took in Q2.
And the details are very helpful. Maybe moving to the domestic business, the domestic tower business. So when we look at your leasing activity, you seem to be -- American Tower seems to be generating better activity and organic tenant billings growth than some of your competitors when you pull out that merger churn. And you mentioned earlier that you're able to extract a premium for the services that you provide. Are there other factors that go behind what's driving your relative success in the U.S. market?
Sure. Well, I don't want to comment on my competitors, but I'll just tell you what we've done and what we've focused on. The first thing you have to remember is it's a real estate business. And so not every tower is created equal, and we were very thoughtful in constructing our portfolio and some of the most valuable towers in our portfolio go back to those old A and B block carriers that really formed the nucleus of the network and everything was designed around that.
So I think we've had some natural advantages from that construction of our portfolio. But then you add on to that, the value proposition we've created for our customers. It's not -- we're not just a landlord, we're a partner to them. Our services business has become a real benefit to the customers. In fact, they're the ones that are driving us to do more. It's not us trying to grow it, it's them wanting to do more with us. We have a shared power program that gives them a little bit of an easy button in terms of that.
And the way we maintain and operate our assets decreases their total cost of ownership. Then you add to that the investments we've made in our operational capabilities to get them on air incredibly fast, coupled with those comprehensive MLAs that they're kind of like an easy button in terms of [ upwards ] that really gives them a reason to do more business with us. And I think it's the combination of all that, that's led to us being able to continue to offer more value to our customers and drive higher growth.
What are you seeing in terms of leasing activity? Is it still improving quarter-over-quarter? And do you have some updates just in terms of what you're seeing out of the environment?
Bless you. Yes, we continue to see growth in the pipeline there. And if you look at our guide for the year, it implies a higher growth toward the back end of the year. Our services guide is going down a little bit towards the back end of the year. That's because we had some customers that were kind of front loaded in terms of their efforts. And I think what I would say about the pipeline is you kind of see it mirroring where people are in terms of their network deployments.
The folks that are further along in terms of getting their mid-band upgrades done, they're slowing down a little bit. And the folks that are further behind are speeding up a little bit. So we continue to see a robust pipeline. It is building throughout the year and that's a good sign for activity. I would just mention that there's a little bit of decoupling of activity from property revenue sometimes with us because of our comprehensive agreements. So when the customers have the comprehensive agreements, it kind of evens out the revenue piece of it. So if those customers are scaling down a little bit, it doesn't mean that revenues come down because it's a little bit more of a spread on that.
But we are still seeing a robust pipeline. We're also seeing a little bit of a mix change. On a percentage basis, it's about the same for colocations and amendments, and that is still about 90% amendments in terms of volume, which you'd expect because we have carriers on a lot of our towers and about 10% colos. But as the overall volumes increased, that means the number of colos has increased, and it's actually up about 200%. So that's a very positive sign as well. So we're excited about the carriers continue to invest. We are seeing densification starting, and that's in line with what we thought was going to happen at this point in the cycle, and we feel very good about the carrier activity that we're seeing and how much work they have left to do.
So with the news last week, can you help us understand the implications of EchoStar selling spectrum to AT&T and how this is going to influence the forward pace of organic leasing growth for American Tower?
Sure. So all we know is what's public. We don't have any specialized knowledge that you guys don't have on this. I think it's too early to tell in terms of some of the knock-on effects of what's going to happen there. I think generally speaking, spectrum in the hands of a well-capitalized carrier promotes more development and more activity over time than it does in the hands of an undercapitalized carrier.
Having said that, we don't know exactly what's going to happen with Boost yet. First of all, it hasn't been approved. There's still a government approval process. Second, the terms of that agreement are pretty generic that have been put out there. We don't know how that's going to pan out and exactly what the plans are between AT&T and Boost on that. And so we don't really know exactly what's going to affect this yet. Having said that, if you look at Boost as a customer of ours, what we've been very transparent about in the past is we have a comprehensive MLA in place. The only thing that's baked into our guidance through 2027 is the contractual minimums under that agreement. So as long as they continue to pay under that agreement, it shouldn't have an effect on that piece of it. Beyond that, it remains to be seen what's going to happen on that.
And in terms of kind of the downside risks with Boost, again, we feel very good about the contract we have in place. But the worst impacts, if you had churn from it is they represent about 4% of our U.S. business, about 2% of our global business. Now we don't expect the worst to happen, but that's just to size the exposure for everybody there. So we'll continue to evaluate this as it plays out. And when we have more information, we'll be able to give you guys a better feel for how that impacts us.
So we've been getting a bunch of questions, as you may imagine, across the implications. And so One of the questions that we're getting, maybe just to think about the durability of the lease itself. So if EchoStar were to decommission the network, you mentioned you have a comprehensive through '27, but the contract actually goes for longer, right?
It does. We signed that agreement in 2021 and it expires in 2036.
So it's a 15-year deal.
Yes.
What's the durability of a customer who may be decommissioning the network, paying out what's owed on the contract versus the risk that they find a way not to pay the contract?
We do our best when we craft these agreements to protect ourselves on it, and we will aggressively defend our revenue stream on that. So how it's going to play out? I don't know exactly, but rest assured, I'm a lawyer by training. We've done everything we can to protect ourselves on it. But I can't predict what the other party is going to do or what's going to happen with that. So I expect to get paid, but we'll have to see. If something else happens, we'll have to figure that out but I expect to get paid.
And in terms of just thinking conceptually, so one of the interesting things about the sale is AT&T is buying 600 megahertz spectrum, which they currently don't have in their network. Is this an incremental amendment opportunity for American Tower above and beyond what they're doing with the mid-band right now?
It could be if they decide to deploy it. It could be. Again, it's too early for us to know exactly how that's going to pan out and how they plan to use it. But look, any spectrum that a carrier has when they deploy it, they represent opportunity for us. And so we'll just have to see what their plans are because as of yet, they haven't shared with us what they're planning to do with it.
So 1 other question on this, and this is maybe a hard one because it's kind of in the realm of scenario analysis. But with AT&T potentially getting more spectrum with this transaction and the possibility that other carriers get some spectrum as well that could be plug and play. So like maybe more mid-band, maybe more AWS 3. I guess maybe just a quick clarification is if those things happen, those are kind of like plug and play where those are not amendment. If the carrier has that spectrum deployed and they're getting more of it, is that right?
They could be. It's possible that's the outcome on it. Again, I think it depends on who gets what, what they do with it. At the end of the day, though, the additional spectrum is not going to solve their need to densify the networks. If you go back to the CTIA white paper that was published a couple of years ago, they said they needed 400 megahertz of mid-band spectrum by 2027. I think it was 1,400 by 2030 or 2031, somewhere in that time frame.
And so the DISH spectrum is a lot shallower than that. It gives them some of it, and they're going to be able to utilize that. And that's a good thing because, quite frankly, it can make some of the other things that they're doing, like fixed wireless more viable for them. So I don't view this as a negative for towers at all in terms of the other 3 carriers. I think this is a positive because it gives our customers another avenue to monetize their network and to invest more in the assets that they're putting on our sites.
Because this has been, I think, one of the concerns is that if there's more spectrum that the carriers have, they densify less? Like, for example, if they're getting maybe on the downlink, 20% to 30% more spectrum, let's just take that as a percentage and network traffic is growing. You mentioned earlier like 15%, 20%, that's at least a year of extra capacity that they can use with spectrum versus other sources. So in the past, when you've seen these kinds of things happen, at least for short term or midterm period of time, does it reduce -- like is it going to affect the trajectory that you're on right now for densification just for a period of time and then you get to the other side of this and it's back to that longer-term path?
Okay. We'll have to see how it plays out. I don't think so. I think if you look at where they need spectrum, where the densification is occurring today, it's a drop in the bucket of what they need to do in terms of accelerating it. If you think about the need to densify and where they need spectrum, it's not uniform across the country. If you're in a rural Montana, you don't need a lot of spectrum. But if you're in a dense urban area, you need a ton of spectrum, and you need it quickly. And if you just think about handset penetration, we just kind of got over 50% mid-band handset penetration this year. That continues to accelerate. 5G mid-band use, those users are using twice as much data as 4G. So I think that where that demand happens is just as important as the fact that it's happening in general.
So when I think about that spectrum being deployed and the spectrum that they're getting, they need every tool in the toolkit to meet that demand. So I don't think it's going to delay significantly any types of densification. And when we've seen these types of things in the past, any delays are very short-term, it's really around network planning, trying to figure out what are the -- they have to figure out what they're going to do. And then that's usually where you see a short-term little pause. But even that's pretty short term, and it doesn't affect the most acute need areas that we're seeing them already attacking.
On the second quarter earnings call, American Tower noted that $5 million of leasing revenue got shifted, right, from '25 to '26.
Yes.
What caused that? And does this transaction do you think had anything to do with it?
$5 million on a $10 billion P&L, but I understand how important it is to everyone on a new business perspective. There was a cadence of activity that we thought was going to happen. It's going a little bit slower. This is not a if we're going to get it, it's when we're going to get it. And quite frankly, we're probably a little too precise in our guide at the beginning of the year given that more of our revenue is subject to the volumes.
I don't think it's related to this transaction. I think that you're talking about a very small number of sites that got pushed out a quarter or 2. So I don't think it's this. I think it's just they're not going as fast as we thought they were going to go.
So zooming out on the domestic business, how do you see organic growth pacing over the next few years? You have your multiyear guide out there, how do you see the growth rate from here?
So I'll just kind of refer back to what we said before in terms of our long-term growth algorithm. We think our developed markets will continue to be kind of mid-single-digit growth markets. And the components of that are we've got a 3% escalator in the U.S. In Europe, it's CPI-based. I'll focus on the U.S. first, 3% escalator, historical churn has been 1% to 2% and absent U.S. Cellular, which is a new thing, we think it's going to trend to the bottom end of the 1% to 2%.
And just to size, U.S. Cellular again that represents less than 0.5% of our global revenues, about 1% of our U.S. revenues. So depending on what happens with that, you can have a little bit more churn from that than what we expected. But -- so you got the 3%, you got the churn trending down closer to the 1%, so you got about 2% there. Then you have the incremental growth that's coming from colocations and amendments. We think that gets you into kind of that mid-single-digit organic growth rate. Europe, we have a CPI-linked escalator. We continue to see good demand trends there. We think that will continue to be kind of mid-single digit as well.
Maybe while we're just starting that to traverse around the world. So LatAm, Africa data centers, maybe just a sense of how you see growth in those businesses as well.
Yes. So we've been very clear. LatAm is a challenge for us for the next couple of years. We continue to have churn for Oi that will affect us in '26 and '27. There's some other carrier consolidation churn happening in our smaller markets there as well. So we're expecting growth in Latin America to be low single digits in the next couple of years. After that, we feel good about the rebound of growth there. And we're seeing some early signs of that in Brazil where the carriers are starting to invest more in their networks there.
So I think that once you get past 2027 that LatAm will be accretive to growth and they'll be growing faster than our developed markets. Same thing with Africa. In Africa, we're largely through the carrier consolidation churn there. In fact, I think we're pretty much through with everything that we're anticipating there. And so we're seeing very healthy demand drivers in Africa. And the big challenge there has been FX, and we've seen a little bit of moderation in that this year. So we feel really good about Africa continue to be a growth driver in U.S. dollar terms for us over the next several years as well.
So CoreSite is our fastest-growing segment. I think what we said publicly on that is we expect them to be double-digit revenue growth for the foreseeable future, but they're a smaller piece of the pie. So it just doesn't have as much [ oomph ] on our growth rates, but it's doing phenomenally well. And we expect that to continue because all the secular drivers in the data center business are durable in terms of what CoreSite is seeing. They're not subject to some of the fluctuations that you're seeing in the hyperscale space.
Coming back to some of the priorities you talked about at the beginning of our conversation, you talked about the goal to grow revenue faster than expense. And you also have talked in the past about the efficiency initiatives that you've been pursuing. Is there anything more you can share with us in terms of how that's progressing to identify maybe a step function change in the cost structure?
Yes. So the first thing we do is attack SG&A. At this point, I think we've harvested most of the low-hanging fruit there. So I don't think you're going to see dramatic reductions in SG&A, but there's still some incremental improvement that we can do. It just requires more time, things like automation, some investments, things like that. And so we'll continue to work on that over time. What Bud's focused on is the rest of the expense stack. And so some of that's a little bit fixed like property taxes. There's not much you can do. We do have an aggressive program on land rents. But then it's looking at things like utilities, maintenance CapEx spend, kind of our global supply chain.
And so I'm not ready to set targets yet. I told Bud's got until the back end of the year to do that. But the way to think about that is there's a trajectory that we've historically had in terms of the cost curve and how it relates to inflation and our revenue growth. And the goal is to bend that down over the next several years so that you get more daylight between the 2. And so that's what you should expect to see from us is more of a projection on a bending of the cost curve over time on that.
And again, for us, the mission is grow expenses slower than revenue, expand margin. We're very confident in our ability to do that. And today, if you look at the gross margin and the way the revenue on towers drops down at the bottom line, it's converting to EBITDA kind of greater than 80% in terms of every incremental dollar we put on the site. So you're getting some natural margin expansion from that. And just keeping that cost discipline is going to just help us to keep that growth going.
When you look across your global portfolio, what region product is the most underappreciated in terms of the growth contribution to American Tower that could actually deliver some upside to how you think about multiyear growth.
So I think there are some growth drivers in the U.S. on the tower side that are kind of in that kind of long-term view shed. And there are things that we can't predict yet. So if you think about fixed wireless as a driver, today, the carriers are using fallow capacity on their networks for it. But as that product becomes more mature and they're able to monetize it better that could be something that's a stepwise driver.
I think when you look at the impact of AI on the mobile networks as well as on the data center business, over time, that's going to create an accelerating demand curve on the networks as well. When you start getting to the point there you're doing AI manipulation of video on devices, it could have the same types of effect as social media. And if that happens, there's not enough spectrum. The densification is going to have to accelerate. So I think that there are some demand drivers just on the core tower business that are underappreciated in terms of what could happen out there.
I think in terms of the rest of our portfolio, I think there are some opportunities for us to do more in terms of power. We've developed a lot of really interesting things in Africa on power that could benefit our customers in places like the U.S. or Europe. It's just it's a little bit tough to break through that because that's kind of one of their core competencies and you're asking to share more components. But I think that's a value add we could do for our customers there.
I do think edge compute will have its day. It's a little bit further out than I expected it to be, but it will come. And I think that will be an enhancement. So when I look at the future, there's a lot of drivers that are going to drive the core tower business, some of the ancillary offerings that we have. And I'm excited about what the future holds. I think we've got a lot of ways to grow the revenue base and the portfolio over time.
And then so maybe boiling that down to AFFO per share growth, what's the current goal for the multiyear annual AFFO per share growth, recognizing that there's a few things that you're dealing with right now. You've got some merger churn, you've got interest rates, you've got FX. But when you sort of cut through and normalize, help us appreciate what that trajectory looks like.
Yes. So I'll give you the generics, and then I'll refer you back to -- we put out a chart on our Q1 earnings that shows this year because I think it's illustrative of this. If you look at our long-term growth algorithm, if you can grow developed markets at mid-single digits on an organic basis and you can grow the international markets a couple of hundred basis points higher, then that drops down to the bottom line and higher because of the conversion rate, right?
If you take that plus some incremental investment in the portfolio, minus some FX headwinds, minus some refinancing headwinds, we still think we can drive mid- to upper single-digit AFFO growth per share on a durable basis over time. And that's -- our goal is to get as high as we can every year on that. But that's how we think about the business. And if you look at that chart that we put out in Q1 -- I'm sorry, Q4 earnings...
In Q1...
Yes. Then kind of the core growth rate for portfolio was over 8% this year when you kind of look at the core growth before you have the detractors on some of those other things. So we think that we're delivering results that are supportive of that higher, single-digit growth if you can get some moderation in some of the headwinds like FX, refinancing, and then we will have a little bit of headroom from [indiscernible] cash taxes growing in the non-U.S. markets.
And so that, a, just to clarify, was that -- remind me because I remember the slide, but was that inclusive of the merger churn? Or is that exclusive of that?
I don't remember off the top of my head, to be honest with you. I think it included the churn. I think that was our overall growth rate for this year. It's the -- it's really -- I'm talking from memory. I'd refer you guys back to the chart.
Because I guess the question is, do you see that like the organic, the underlying strengthening based on your multiyear outlook. Because you've got getting through the merger churn, you talked about activity getting better in the U.S., you talked about Europe, LatAm is going to get through its issues over the next couple of years.
Yes. We certainly think that when you look out a couple of years from now, we're past all the big churn events, we think that the organic growth internationally is going to expand. I think when you look at the U.S. and in Europe, it's going to be a little bit range-bound around that mid-single digits unless there's a catalyst like fixed wireless or something that really improves that.
You mentioned the balance sheet also and using your balance sheet. What's been interesting is, I think your competitors have talked about the opportunity to be IG-rated at 6x plus EBITDA in terms of a leverage multiple. Your target is still trying to be below 5x at the high end, which you're kind of right there at the moment, if I recall correctly. You're right near there. So what's the opportunity to potentially revisit your target leverage over the next few years and maybe use that as an opportunity to enhance shareholder returns?
Well, that range is something we set. That's not a range that's dictated by the ratings agency. So we've kind of put that range out there. And the importance of getting down to 5 is because that's a commitment that we made when we flexed up out of our policy. And so if you look at what's happened over the past year, we've gotten upgrades. So we certainly think there's some flexibility in terms of what those ranges look like. At this point, we haven't elected to do that.
And frankly, we don't need to do that right now. We've got enough liquidity and enough opportunities in our current balance sheet structure that we don't need to do anything with that today. But I certainly think if you look at what other companies have done, there's probably some flexibility in there. And we'll figure that out over time. But we're excited about the upgrades we've gotten. We think that's also very reflective of the change in quality of earnings. And that's been one of the focuses is to make sure that as we decrease the emerging market exposure that the ratings agencies as well as the investors appreciate the fact that, that gives us a more durable, reliable, less volatile cash flow stream on it, and that's worthy of a premium and you're seeing that in the debt markets as well.
And then in terms of using your financial flexibility, how do you think about the priority stack right now of capital allocation, where buybacks might fit into that equation as well as if there's any M&A that you feel like could be opportunistic for the company.
So when we think about capital allocation, the first obligation is, we're going to pay our dividend. In this year, subject to Board approval, that's looking to be about $3.2 billion-ish of our capital allocation on that. And then beyond that, we have our internal CapEx program and that typically drives some of the best returns that we can make because those are the investments that we're able to do incrementally.
And then beyond that, it's really a math equation for us. Is there more opportunity in an M&A environment than what a share buyback is going to give us or further delevering, depending on the interest rate environment.
And we've gotten to this to sufficient scale everywhere that we operate that there's no strategic imperative to buy something that would take us off of kind of a pure math equation. And so the way Rod and I both think about it is every opportunity that comes our way, gets paired up against theoretical stock buyback and we look at that. So we think buybacks are a very viable part of capital allocation. Now I've also been very clear that I personally believe that opportunistic buybacks create a lot more value than the programmatic buybacks.
So you shouldn't expect to see us put in some sort of buy a certain number of shares at the market. That's not likely to happen under my leadership. But opportunistic buybacks are certainly on the table. And if we don't have a better use for the capital, that's what we'll look at.
We talked about a range of topics today. Is there anything that we didn't talk about or anything that you want to revisit just to leave our clients with today?
No, look, I would just reiterate, towers are still one of the best business models ever created, probably the best business model ever created. And there are so many growth drivers over a multiyear period. It all comes down to how often people are using their phones. And so we tend to focus kind of on what's happening quarter-to-quarter. But at the end of the day, people are going to do more mobile connectivity over time, and there are so many new growth drivers coming machine-to-machine, AI, all types of drivers to the business. That's going to make all these businesses grow continually at least over the next several decades. So this is not -- you shouldn't be thinking about this as a short-term business. This is a long-term investment in infrastructure and that infrastructure is going to power the next wave of innovation and the next. That's what people need to focus on when it comes to towers and quite frankly, data centers.
Thanks for your time. Thank you.
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American Tower — Citi’s 2025 Global Technology
American Tower — Citi’s 2025 Global Technology
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Management setzt klar auf organisches Wachstum, selektive Kapitaleinsätze in entwickelten Märkten, strikte Kostenkontrolle und ein stabileres Bilanzprofil.
- Langfristig: Nachfrage nach Mobilfunk-Infrastruktur bleibt laut CEO strukturell stark (Datenwachstum, Densifizierung, AI/Edge), daher positives langfristiges Ertragsbild.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Portfoliopolitik: Verschiebung der Investitionsmixes hin zu entwickelten Märkten; Emerging‑Market‑Anteil am AFFO nach Indien‑Verkauf von ~40% auf ~25% gesunken.
- Operative Stärke: Services, Shared‑Power‑Programme und schnelle In‑Service‑Zeiten schaffen Marktprämien und treiben Amendments/Colocations—Colocations volumenmäßig +200%.
- Kostendisziplin: SG&A‑Einsparungen größtenteils realisiert; nun Fokus auf Betriebsaufwand, Grundstücksmieten, Utilities, Wartungs‑CapEx und Supply‑Chain.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Arbitration: Kläger ist AT&T Mexico; annualisierte Miete ~$300 Mio.; Zahlungen pausiert, bereits Rückstellung in Q2, weiteres Risiko bei anhaltender Nichtzahlung.
- Spectrum‑Deal: EchoStar/AT&T‑Transaktion noch unklar; Boost stellt ~4% des US‑Umsatzes (~2% global) dar—bis 2027 ist nur vertragliches Minimum in Guidance berücksichtigt.
- Guidance: Keine neue offizielle Guidance; Management erwartet, dass Services‑Timing und Back‑loaded Pipeline das Jahr dominieren.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Spectrum‑Impact: Unklarheit, ob AT&T‑Erwerb zu zusätzlicher Amendment‑Nachfrage führt; Management sieht potenziell positiv, kurzfristig aber planungsbedingte Pausen.
- Vertragsdurabilität: Boost/AT&T‑MLA läuft bis 2036; Management erwartet Verteidigung der Verträge, schließt weitere Rückstellungen bei anhaltendem Ausfall nicht aus.
- Kostenagenda: CFO soll bis Jahresende konkrete Ziele zum weiteren Bending‑of‑the‑cost‑curve vorlegen; bisher kein quantitativer Zielwert kommuniziert.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Für Aktionäre: Kerngeschäft bleibt langfristig attraktiv; kurzfristig Belastungen durch LatAm‑Konsolidierung, FX und die AT&T Mexico‑Arbitration erhöhen Volatilität. Entwicklung in entwickelten Märkten, Services‑Wachstum, Bilanzdisziplin und erfolgreiche Kostensenkung sind die Schlüssel zur Realisierung des mittleren bis oberen einstelligen AFFO‑Wachstumsziels.
American Tower — TD Cowen Communications Infrastructure Summit
1. Question Answer
All right. Perfect. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to TD Cowen's 11th Annual Communications Infrastructure Summit. My name is Michael Elias, and I am the Comm Infra Analyst here at TD Cowen. For this session, we're joined by American Tower. And from American Tower, we have their EVP and President of the U.S. Tower division, Rich Rossi. This session is structured as a fireside chat. I've said this in other sessions. I promise you I will try and open it up for questions at the end. But like I said, I do get excited.
So with that, Rich, thank you so much for being here. Really appreciate it.
Thanks, Mike. Great to be here.
Now I want to -- we're just talking about this before we got started. You started in 2001 at American Tower. That is a company veteran if I've heard one. From your perspective, like could you give us an overview of your time at American Tower and a bit of your path to your current seat? I think that would be helpful as we set up this conversation.
Yes, sure. So back in 2001, it was my first job out of law school. I started as a contractor at American Tower. Ironically enough, I'm tasked today with growing the U.S. business. At that time, I was working on tower divestitures. We had this brilliant idea that if you had a couple of towers in the same 1 or 2-mile radius, that was probably 1 or 2 too many. So at that time, we're focused on reducing operating expenses and property taxes, things like that. So we divested some towers over my first couple of years with AMT.
And then I moved out into our U.S. operations, had a series of roles that were either operational or legal in nature and spent a lot of time working on our customer agreements. So the major customer MLAs probably the last 15 years. did some M&A work and became the General Counsel of the U.S. in 2018 and then took the President's role at the beginning of this year. So it's been a really interesting journey.
Congratulations to you. And now since you've stepped into that role, and we're about halfway through the year, I'm curious, can you talk about your key learnings since stepping into that President role? And as part of that, the strategic priorities and objectives for you in the U.S.
Yes. So the interesting dynamic we have right now is Steve, our CEO, stepped into the role early in '24, Bud Noel became our COO at the same time I took this role. Ruth Dowling is fairly fresh in the General Counsel role. So we've had a total leadership change at American Tower and that all internal folks moving into those roles, and that's created another layer of opportunity for folks. So our senior U.S. team is a lot of people who are just moving into their roles. I think the longest tenure is about 18 months. So we have a team of industry veterans all probably around 20 years on average of experience, but new to those roles. So one of the biggest learnings has been how do we keep this train moving at full speed, taking all the energy and excitement that these folks are bringing, but channeling it into driving the right results.
In terms of the U.S. focus, what I'd say is our focus at all times is creating the greatest amount of durable long-term certainty for the business. So that's a key, but we're trying to do it in a couple of ways: one, maximizing the opportunities when we're working with our customers to make sure that we provide our investors with results that are going to make us choice that's the best one out of our sector.
But you also have to make agreements with customers that create value for them. So while we're trying to make sure that we drive as much revenue as we can, we know customers have options. So making sure that we provide them with long-term value as well is really important. We're looking at opportunities to grow inorganically, so making sure that our underwriting is disciplined and that we are finding assets that meet our criteria and that help provide long-term growth. Those are all key.
And then the last thing I would add is we're really taking a product management focus now more so than we have in the past. And so we're looking at everything, whether it's our services business, backup power program, the way we run our rooftops, trying to expand margin on all these different product lines to help drive those top line results.
And we'll talk about that in a little bit because that's been a topic that's come up on the earnings call. But I want to -- in the U.S. specifically, I want to focus on the commentary that we've heard about the big 3 in terms of where they stand in their upgrades, right? I think on the 2Q earnings call, it was that the -- their goal is to get to over 95%. One of them is at 85% today, another at 70% and the last one is around 50%.
When you're having your conversations with the carriers, what are you hearing from them in terms of, let's say, timing of their upgrades? And how does that compare to the conversation and the narrative when you were sitting down last year?
Yes. So what I'd say is without getting into specifics with the individual customers, I think that what we're seeing with 5G, in particular, is it's playing out the way that we thought it was going to back in 2019, 2020 when things started to get underway. And that's because we had a good track record with both 4G and 3G watching those processes unfold. And so when we sort of take that vision and match it up to what we're hearing from customers, it's very consistent.
The way that we view the generational technologies is they hit 3 different phases. First phase, think of as your coverage phase, and that's starting at the urban center and pushing the network out to the outer edges to rural areas. Then you have that phase that I've heard referred to as halftime pause. We call it quality phase.
That's halftime pause.
Yes, exactly. There you go. That's 2-in-1. But we look at that as the phase where the operators take a look at where they are from a coverage perspective. They're also looking at where the demand is on the network, and that rolls into that third phase, which is capacity. and in capacity, you may see them go back and revisit some of the sites that were touched initially in the coverage phase. You may see some densification activity with new colocations to provide a full-on new cell site, whether it's colocation or a build-to-suit to fill in an area where demand -- there's more traffic on the site than upgrading with more equipment would be able to accommodate.
So I think we're seeing it play out as we thought it would a year ago and as we thought it would 5 years ago, which is great because it is nice to see the trajectory of that story continue to go in the direction that we're imagining it would.
When I hear of -- so in data center land as an example, right, you have one buyer who's super active and then another one falls behind because of whatever situation it may be. But usually, what you see is you see like the spring effect where the person who's behind is like, oh, we need to catch up and they just go on a massive procurement spree. When I hear about the 50%, the one that's at 50%, obviously, without naming any names, my gut is to say, okay, well, they need to play catch up, right? And as a result, we could see an acceleration there. Does the same dynamic that applies in data center land with the hyperscalers apply to the carriers where you can see that, hey, we need to catch up to our peers.
Yes. I think there definitely is some similarity to what you just described. One of the great things about being an infrastructure for wireless is the carriers over the last 20 years have consistently shown that they're going to compete to differentiate on quality of service. So to the extent that somebody is behind in whatever metrics you may be looking at, at that time, they will tend to try to work really aggressively to try to catch up. So I think when you talk about somebody who is behind, we look at that as more of a when, not an if situation.
And so timing can be variable in some of these relationships. The carriers are taking different paths to get to 5G. It's all sort of the same destination, but their journeys have been different through each of the technology generations. But in this case, yes, their pace may be different, but we think the result is going to be the same.
Okay. And then also, you've been highlighting the increase in the application volumes, right? And as part of that, you're highlighting the increases on the colocation side. I'm curious, like as you think of the relative mix between the two, kind of how has that evolved? I know colos have increased, but just kind of like trying to see the chart in my head, if you will. And then the second question becomes, as you think about the book-to-bill or the time line between when it's signed to ultimately when it commences, what is that -- how has that changed, if at all?
Yes. So the mix of sort of amendments or augmentations versus colocations still weighs heavily on our portfolio towards amendments. If you just think of the size, 43,000 U.S. assets and then the relationships with our customers, over 10,000 leases, sometimes over 20,000 leases with particular customers, there are a lot of sites for them to touch when they do these upgrades. So we're seeing a lot of amendment activity and have been for the last 5 years. You mentioned the increase, the 200% increase in colocations. So that's exciting. It's still a smallish number compared to the overall float of applications that we have coming through, but it's nice to see that pick up. I think it helps with some of the densification story that we have forecast and that we're seeing play out right now. From a sort of signing the book-to-bill type time line, I think with -- the carriers have done a great job over the last decade of getting much more into a mindset of just-in-time deployment.
Back in my earlier days, 20 years ago, you would see new colocations being signed up that weren't going to be installed for 2 or 3 years. And that's changed a lot. So I think what you see now is with a new colocation lease, it may take 6 months from when the application is received to when it's actually signed, whether it's permitting, legal review, whatever it may be, engineering review, it takes a little bit of time. With amendments, it's a little bit shorter. It may be something more like 120 days. But those processes live within a larger process, which goes all the way from scoping of the site to construction. So one of the things that we do with our services program is we have AZP, which is the front-end permitting. We have construction on the back end, and then we have an end-to-end offering, which does the whole thing from scoping to construction. And we found that while it usually takes about 12 months to do that, as a stand-alone, when we do end-to-end, it's more like 9 months on a colocation. So we're able to shave off some valuable time.
So we're seeing things move quickly with some customers. But then sort of to your prior question, with some others, we are seeing a bit of a lag in that time line. So it's not gospel per se, but those are more indicative in terms of what the time lines typically are.
Got it. One of the things that I think through is like the conversion of pipeline, and I'm trying to find the right way to say it because I get trip up sometimes with the terminology. But as I think about it, you said when the application is received, then it goes through the legal review and so on and then an application is signed, right? What percentage of what you receive actually gets converted into something that's signed that ultimately does become revenue generating. Just trying to get a sense for that percentage.
Sure. It's tough to quantify the percentage in part because of some of the comprehensive or holistic arrangements that we have. So those arrangements, I should mention, they help on the speed question that we just had, the book-to-bill. Those contracts provide an expedited experience because you take out a lot of that middle stuff that happens in that 6 months when a contract is floating around. That's more like a 30-day process from application to what you would call a signed amendment.
In some of those contracts, they contemplate a steady flow of revenue over multiple years. And so as a result of that, the applications that come in behind it don't have revenue specifically attached to them, but they track back to a bigger arrangement where the revenue has sort of been accounted for as part of an overarching relationship. So we have a mix of things that come in that a la carte that probably has a higher percentage of things that are going to have revenue attached to them. But the applications that coincide with one of those holistic contracts, they're less likely to have revenue because it's already been baked in.
It's been baked in, yes. No, that makes sense. One of the questions I would ask is we're talking about these holistic agreements. I think there is one customer who you've talked about on the call without naming specific names that they -- you're not on a holistic agreement with them. I'm curious, how would you just generally describe the opportunity to have holistic agreements with all of your big carriers in the U.S. in the near to medium term.
Yes. I mean if you -- we've only had a couple of years, it's probably '21 and '22 where we had all of the majors on those type of contracts. To your earlier question about the way that the timing coincides between the different customers build out, we never really were able to find in 4G and 3G the opportunities where the overlap was such that you would have those contracts in place because somebody was lagging behind or somebody was far out ahead. So we did have an early 5G, you had that pent-up demand for mid-band deployment where everyone was doing the same thing. So I think we had that brief window of time. It's something that we're open to, but also something we're comfortable having some customers in those structures, some being a la carte or all being a la carte because ultimately, those agreements, they provide that faster experience and some back-office efficiency for us.
So quicker deployment for the customer, less manual touches for our business. But it really adds up to sort of the same opportunity. I think with the comprehensive contracts, you have a little more ability to forecast when things are going to hit versus the a la carte model where there might be more variability in timing. So we're comfortable with either, but always open to those big long-term committed contracts as well.
Perfect. I do want to ask about your U.S. new leasing guidance, which you gave an update for on the call. So you took it to roughly $160 million versus the $165 million to $170 million prior, and you gave the reasons in terms of commencements and all. Now that you're -- you've done $77 million through the first half of the year, I mean, clearly, in order to get there, like it needs to take a step up.
But what I thought was interesting is that almost like similar to the beginning of the year or unlike the beginning of the year, you didn't provide like a organic growth range. Before it was greater than 4.3% or greater than or equal to 4.3%. Now it's roughly 4.3%, which makes me think like have you guys fully derisked the guidance, we feel comfortable that this is where we come in? Or is there still some execution risk around that?
I would sleep better if we had derisked that. still -- we still have to perform. So there's still -- right, it's the about 4.3%, could be a little less, could be a little more. It really depends on the conversions on some of that variable a la carte business. So that number derived from just looking at what's in our pipeline using our historical perspective to figure out what the opportunities to convert those into billing would be. So...
The commencing piece.
The actually commencing it, not just getting it signed up. So yes, that for us seems to be the right place that we think we're going to land for end of the year, but it really is subject to some of the things we talked about that when they land is going to dictate what the exact number is going to be.
I'm going to try and phrase this in the best way possible. So as we think about the business and we're moving towards our 4Q exit, let's say, this activity comes through in commencement [ setting ] right? What I'm curious about is, if you were taking a historical purview looking at the tower industry, what would you say is implied for 2026, if at all, based on the jump-off point at the end of the year? I'm just trying to calibrate and make sure that we're kind of like dialed in and we're not getting too far over our skis in terms of getting excited about the activity that's out there.
Yes. So I mean it's only August. So too early to really nail down what '26 is going to look like. We've given a long-term guide that was the '23 to '27 U.S. organic guide, right? We haven't changed that, right? So that can kind of give you an idea of what we're thinking. I think some of the larger contracts that we have that have been in place 2020, '21, '22, you have some contracted step-downs in terms of the commitments. on those. So what that means is the -- our budget is going to have a lot of the a la carte pay by the drink type business coming through. So again, it doesn't mean less. It's just a timing thing.
So as you look at '26, what we're trying to figure out between now here in August and the end of the year before we do the guide in January or early February would be just what are we going to commit to on those commencements for that more variable pipeline. So it gives us a couple of months to look at that, nail it down. And then also, right, we just -- the ink is still wet on the T-Mobile U.S. Cellular deal. We have some renewals coming up on the U.S. Cellular side in '26. So better understanding what's going to happen, what their plans are for that network. We haven't had conversations about that. So some of the variable commencement and then thinking about whether there is any risk on churn on that side. And any risk we have there, we've given the 1% to 2% guidance on churn, and we've been very much in the low end of that. So the question is just it wouldn't be outside of that? Is it somewhere in the midpoint in there? So just trying to figure out the specificity on that before we give any real clarity on '26.
Okay. Would it be fair to say -- because I appreciate the step down in what we call the use fees, right? Is that right?
That's right.
So I appreciate that dynamic. But I would think that to the extent that you're seeing a step down there, well, there's going to have to be something else that's going to have to -- that will have to come and offset that. And what I'm just generally curious about is every quarter we get on the call and we hear more about, hey, activity is picking up, right? Do you just broadly think that the momentum is there for the overall right, that we could be offsetting any potential step downs that some tower companies could have as a result of changes in their -- in the use fees.
Sure.
And it's not an American Tower specific question, did you get that?
Yes. I know industry, yes. I think with those use fees, in some cases, they're comprehensive where it covers everything that you do together. In some cases, it's only limited to certain activities. So we always try to leave ourselves some opportunity outside of that. So a use fee step down doesn't mean that the opportunity steps down as well. It just means that what was committed from that particular customer rolls off and they may have options to spend in different ways.
But from where we have visibility, we still think that there is a lot of opportunity coming through for '26, '27, right? So to keep consistent with that guide. And it may be a little different than the activity we've seen now when you go from that coverage phase that's more amendments to that capacity phase where you start seeing some more colocation. We mentioned the pickup in colocation activity.
So we think that there are definitely some indicators out there that show that there's going to be a mix of sources from where it comes from. But yes, I wouldn't read into the step down. Those step-downs are set when the contracts first signed 5 years ago, 4 years ago. So that's kind of looking at a crystal ball and trying to figure out where the activity may be. And then what we look at today is where it actually is. So that informs our longer-term look.
One of the things that I've thought about is -- if we rewind the clock to -- I want to say it was when bonus depreciation started to come out for the carriers, this is with the Jobs Act and all that stuff, right? It had a negative impact on their financials. And then now you're seeing -- you obviously saw the one big beautiful bill. I would think that stands to benefit them. Though the question that we get from investors is, how has -- now with this incremental flexibility, how have their investment decisions changed? Or how have their capital allocation priorities changed?
Now you initially think, okay, this is probably good for the towers. But I'm curious, in your conversations, let's say, are you getting any sense in terms of a shift in where their focus is going as a function of, hey, maybe we have some more capital to play with?
Yes. We still feel really good about where the spend is relative to towers. Our customers have always had diversified spend, right? When you went into 5G, I'd say around 2017, 2018 time frame, there was a big fiber aggregation initiative and some of the carriers were out there spending a ton on fiber, also buying a lot of high-band frequency licenses. I remember at that time, the question was, hey, what does this mean for towers, right? Is it going to -- is 5G going to look different than 4 and 3. And I think that as you saw it play out, we saw 5G across high, mid- and low-band spectrum. And we've seen it was $35 billion, I think, is the aggregate spend per year right now that we're seeing from the carriers compared to the $30 billion in 4G. So it's an increased spend. We're not seeing anything that would indicate that the activity levels are different on tower.
So we always expect that our customers have their hands in a lot of different pools trying to figure out what's going to be best for their overall business but we don't see that as a detractor for how they're focused on tower.
Okay. And then one other thing, historically, I have looked at the services business as the leading indicator to activity on the leasing front essentially. I hear some nuance on the calls about the type of business that you're getting within services. Is it fair to say that based on what we're seeing within services, hey, this sets up well for the leasing picture? Or is there something that you would caution me on?
I would say to interpret the services revenues, the difference in the type of service matters. AZP, the acquisition zoning and permitting happens at the front end of the process, and that generally is a leasing indicator, right? So we take a look at our services setups, and we say that is going to be an indicator of what the application -- incoming application pipeline from those customers will look like. When you do construction, you're doing construction on the same sites that you've done AZP on. So it doesn't -- the construction is not necessarily a leader of future leasing activity. It really is just sort of the finality of that project. It's taking to the final stages.
So there's a portion of the services business that, yes, is an indicator, and there's another portion that is sort of detached from the new business, and that would be the construction side. So there's a yes and a no in there. But I think on the construction side, it's accretive, right? So we think it's a very good business. It's a great ancillary offering, helps from a differentiation standpoint. And it just creates a little bit of stickiness as well.
That answer says to me more no than yes.
I think -- so let me back up then to be more specific. So where you saw our results this past quarter where we had the big bump, a lot of that was construction. So that -- the construction revenue that you see right now doesn't mean that the next quarter has a ton of new applications coming in. That's just the application data that we gave, which is the 6 months -- the past 6 right, month-over-month. So what I'd say is anything that's on the sort of the AZP side is going to drive more application activity. The construction side, less so.
Okay. And then I do want to talk -- you already brought it up in this conversation. You brought up U.S. Cellular, right? I think on the call, the commentary was that it's 0.5% of your global property revenue. And then I think it's greater than or less than or greater than 1%.
Right around 1%.
So around 1%. Is there an internal expectation of the size or any potential impact from U.S. Cellular? Because I think the commentary was that you hadn't had the conversations with them yet. But I'm sure you can take a look at the map and see maybe where there's some overlap. So curious if you have any thoughts there.
Yes. Well, we think that -- so a lot of that has to do with when the leases come up for renewal, right? That will drive a lot of decision-making around maybe what's kept or what's kept for the near term versus the long term. And I think I mentioned that in '26, we have a tranche of renewals that are coming up. So that's something that we'll take a look at and factor that in when we give our guide.
I think I mentioned that we've been in that lower end of the 1% to 2% range on churn. So if it means that we tick up a little bit within that range, that's probably the most that we would worry about there. But as I mentioned, '26 was a tranche. There was a tranche in '25, and then there's a smattering of leases that we acquired over time. So I think the '25s are probably pretty locked in. Now we're really looking at '26.
Now as part of that, one of the things that when I think back to Sprint, T-Mobile with their merger the tail of that churn, it didn't all come out like immediately. It came out over time. Do you think that, that's something that we could reasonably see here in this situation to a point where we don't even feel that it just kind of like dribbles out or with smaller, let's say, smaller deals for a carrier that they would just take it and drive the cost efficiencies kind of as soon as they can. What does depend on really just the renewal schedule.
It's all of those things, right? And it depends on sort of what the model was for the acquiring carrier no matter what the circumstance is. So yes, I mean, it's a much smaller scale than the Sprint T-Mobile, right? So it's not as meaningful. So I'm not sure. But I mean, we have conversations with all our customers all the time. So if there's an opportunity to do something out there that drives value for a customer and drives it for us, then we're game to looking at structuring it that way.
Okay. I do want to talk a little bit about EchoStar. So we recently saw the kind of the dynamic with the FCC. I think on the call, you highlighted that's around 2% of global revenues.
4% for the U.S., yes.
And slightly over 4%, I think, was the commentary for the U.S. How do you think about the relationship there long term? Obviously, I appreciate I'm asking about someone specific, but just curious how you think about it given the headlines.
Yes. I mean our guide only contracted minimums from our transactions. So we're not building in upside into our estimates. As far as our relationship with Boost goes, they're a customer in good standing. We've enjoyed working with them and supporting them. So nothing but a positive experience so far. Obviously, there's a lot of external stuff happening with their business that we're on the sidelines like everybody else, just trying to assess what the impact may be for us. But for the moment, no concerns with our relationship with them in terms of where we are today.
Okay. So to that point, you've embedded just the minimums. But I also think about -- what I think about is there's a shot clock, right? And yes, part of that, you need to make investments in network. Would it -- to the extent that we saw them increase their activity, right? And this is not a question about them. This is more of an American Tower specific question. To the extent that you saw upside to the minimums, could it be a needle mover for growth like is it a small incremental? Is it something that could be meaningful? I'm just curious how you frame up that relative upside case for -- with them.
So for upside, I mean, it really is dependent upon with any customer, the scale of the build, right? So based on our portfolio, the location of our assets and the relationship, I think we've built with some of these customers who are building up more aggressively, then we would hope that we'd be at the table and an active participant in that. But I mean, it really just depends on how big is the next phase.
Okay. I want to talk to you -- I want to shift gears a little bit. I want to talk about AI because we've been talking about AI a lot today. So of course, let's do the same with towers. For me, I think about how I interact with it in my personal life, and it drives bits and bites, mostly text, right? I'm curious how you think about -- given your time in the industry, how you think about AI impacting demand for mobile infrastructure.
One of the -- I think Mark [indiscernible] on the earnings call said, don't sleep on mobile infrastructure, right, making the point that yes, there will be a benefit. I'm curious how you see that translating into demand for American Tower.
I think we view it as demand that is to come, right? It's not upon us just yet. And so looking in the crystal ball and figuring out exactly when that is, is tricky. But if you go back to 2019 time frame going into 5G, there was a lot of talk about low latency applications, and the need to machine-to-machine communication, autonomous vehicles, all those things. And I think where we sit today, the biggest successes in 5G have been the quality and speed of network, right, and then fixed wireless. And so I think that some of those cases, the low latency applications have remained elusive, and I think AI brings a lot of that to the forefront. So I think that you are starting to see the ripening of some of those use cases, whether it's things like autonomous vehicles or industrial machine learning, things like that.
So I know minimally hearing a bit from some of our customers, the AI searches that are run on your phone now that we all take for granted, that drives more consumption than a traditional search, right? So when you take those things and you multiply the impact from multiple users searching of a site, it puts more demand on that particular installation. So we look at that as something that can drive activity for us. How much of it, not sure at this point, but it really can only be a positive for us.
Would you think -- because this is one of the things I've been struggling with is I heard a stat that was ChatGPT will output more text in this year than all of humanity created in going back to the Bloomberg press. Now what I think through is like, okay, if we iterate this as a function of time, it is more text just moving through, and we know text is low bit intensity or relative to video. I'm curious, do we really need to see a world in which there's video, like video that's created using AI that's moving across the network that really is what would drive incremental bits and bites that require it?
Or do you think we could -- there's a world in which we can just see more text moving through the system and that would drive enough upside to traffic to really be a catalyst for mobile investment?
I think it's a little bit of both, right? I think we always envision the video uplink piece as being something that drives a lot of data consumption. So to the extent that you are using AI to drive more video applications, that is something that would -- yes, that would definitely require more infrastructure to support.
Okay. As I'm curious, when I'm at -- I think you're at ConnectX, if I'm not mistaken, you go to the panels and we talk about 6G. And we're not quite through 5G yet. I'm curious, how do you think about then -- I know it's a ways out, but how do you think about the next upgrade cycle? And kind of based on the workloads and applications that you're seeing out there, what that would need to be oriented towards?
Yes. Well, so one of the big variables, I think, for 6G is the spectrum that's going to be used for it, right? We know big beautiful bill, 800 megahertz of spectrum, 100 is going to be contiguous mid-band. So we kind of know how that looks from a deployment and equipment standpoint. But to the extent that you have higher band frequencies, right, the physics on that would indicate that you would need sites clustered more closely together.
So it could be a densification opportunity, could be different types of equipment. So I think the identification of those frequency bands will dictate a lot of what those deployments look like. So still yet to be seen exactly what it will be. But we think from a cyclicality standpoint, the coverage, quality, capacity is going to continue to play out in that way.
Okay. So I do want to switch gears a little bit, and I do want to talk about kind of the cost initiatives that you've been working on. I hear 80 basis points, I believe, is one of the targets for the year in terms of savings. As you look at the opportunity set, I mean, where do you see the most latent opportunity on the cost savings side?
Yes. I think the global operations platform is going to be a major contributor to the cost savings. I think Steve and Rod have been very upfront with that. And so we've run our businesses locally throughout the globe in a way that we think that they're all very high-quality businesses, but the synergies haven't always been there. So now to hear from some of the folks who I've worked with in the U.S. for years who are now doing global operational roles, they come back and say, there's such an opportunity to do something with this platform or this process, and we can cut it across 3 different continents, right?
So I think that we're going to see synergy in the way that we have the system infrastructure, some of our field practices, things like flying drones, developing the digital twin, like these are processes that we can migrate from one region to another, and we can do so at a better cost than we would be doing on a stand-alone basis.
One of the things that I also think about is -- and this is going to shift a little gears a little bit, but I'll tie back into the tower is as I think of the original idea for doing the CoreSite right? You own the metro edge or you own the interconnection facility at the metro edge, you have a distributed footprint. You can put modular data centers kind of at the base station of these tower sites and you could own out to the far edge, right? Now one of the themes we're talking about today is further proliferation of AI and pushing out to the edge.
But I'm curious, from your perspective, how has that opportunity set played out, particularly around the far edge? And to the extent that we see a meaningful increase in demand at the far edge, could that actually be something that's margin accretive to your tower business?
We think so. And the way that we've seen it play out so far, you may have seen we launched our first facility in Raleigh, North Carolina for Edge. And what we're seeing right now, we were just talking about this earlier today, is we're seeing right now a lot of people who are in Tier 2 who need data center space, and they're showing up at the Edge location saying, "Hey, let me in, right " And so there's an opportunity there to fill the space, which is great, but we're also looking for people who are going to be strategic mobile Edge type operators who are going to attract that ecosystem of other customers that help sort of fulfill that vision. So I think there's -- it's still going to take time. And if you listen to the operators, they're talking about Edge and some of it's happening now, but they're also talking about as a multiyear plan. So I think we're still a couple of years away from when we're going to see the proliferation where you see a lot of it.
But we're positioning ourselves between Raleigh and some of the other locations that we're developing right now to be ready for it, right, to help create that ecosystem and not just wait for it to come knocking on our door. You know from data centers, they're not short lead time projects, right? So you have to be planning and shovel-ready if you want to be competitive.
And so we do think that some of that -- the large learning models and the inferencing moving out to the edge and those second-tier markets. It's a great match up for our portfolio with the 40,000-plus sites in the U.S. So we're really interested in maximizing the locations, not just for tower, but for whatever other uses there can be.
You know what's interesting is I'm going to rewind a bit, maybe date myself a little bit. In June 2021, we're having a conversation with the American Tower team, and the idea was presented at being the one-stop shop, right? You have a globally distributed footprint. You can be the easy button for a hyperscaler to deploy at the Edge, right? Then you went and acquired CoreSite. But from my perspective, like if you were truly going to be the one-stop shop, CoreSite is step one along a journey of acquiring interconnection facilities in a bunch of markets around the globe.
So as we think about the original proposition that was presented before the CoreSite acquisition, I'm curious, how has that evolved? And if you still want to play in that space, wouldn't that suggest that there is much more that needs to be done in scaling up the data center footprint in order for you to drive that interplay?
What I will say that the pre-CoreSite versus the post CoreSite is the legitimacy of our capabilities to operate these, right? And it's -- we had good smart people who had data center backgrounds who are developing these sites. But with CoreSite, you bring the data center fabric and you bring the know-how that -- it's that plus the 40,000 sites when you combine that, you have a really nice combination.
So if we're trying to build it organically out of tower only, the learnings would take far longer, right? And so it is really CoreSite has helped to speed everything up and the teams work really well together in terms of trying to define how Edge fits into this larger ecosystem. So I think we're leveraging it very well right now.
Okay. All right. Well, I will leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate it.
I appreciate the time. Thank you.
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American Tower — TD Cowen Communications Infrastructure Summit
American Tower — TD Cowen Communications Infrastructure Summit
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Rich Rossi skizziert für die US‑Sparte eine Strategie auf Sicherheit und Vorhersehbarkeit: diszipliniertes Underwriting bei Zukäufen, stärkere Produkt‑ und Margenfokussierung (Services, Backup‑Power, Rooftops) sowie Beschleunigung von Commencements durch End‑to‑end‑Services. Führungswechsel 2024 soll Einsatzkraft bündeln, Timing bei Carrier‑Upgrades bleibt die größte Variable.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Kundenverträge: Fokus auf Verträge, die langfristigen Wert für beide Seiten schaffen; ganzheitliche „holistic“ Rahmenverträge beschleunigen Deployments, aber auch a‑la‑carte‑Geschäft ist akzeptiert.
- M&A/Underwriting: Opportunistisches, diszipliniertes Zusetzen bei Zukäufen; Ziel ist nachhaltiges, planbares Wachstum statt kurzfristiger Volatilität.
- Produkt & Kosten: Produktmanagement‑Ansatz zur Margensteigerung in Services; Global Operations Platform und Synergien sollen ~80 Basispunkte Kostenersparnis liefern.
- Edge‑Position: CoreSite als Startpunkt für Far‑Edge‑Strategie; Early‑Market‑Rollout (z. B. Raleigh) zur Vorbereitung auf multiyährige Edge‑Nachfrage, insbesondere bei AI‑Workloads.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Guidance: US‑New‑leasing leicht gekürzt auf ~ $160M (vorher $165–170M); $77M H1 erreicht — weiterer Step‑up erforderlich, organisches Wachstum ~4,3% bleibt Ziel, aber nicht vollständig „derisked“.
- Timing: Colocation: ~6 Monate von Antrag bis Signatur, Amendments ~120 Tage; End‑to‑end‑Services können Colocation‑Zeit auf ~9 Monate kürzen. AZP (Permitting) ist ein besserer Leading‑Indicator als Bauumsatz.
- Kundenrisiken: U.S. Cellular und EchoStar/Boost sind relativ kleine Positionen (rund 1% bzw. 4% U.S. Property); Management sieht Churn innerhalb der 1–2%‑Spanne.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Keine strategische Richtungsänderung — die Kernstory (5G/Densification, steigende Colocations, Edge‑Upside) bleibt intakt. Kurzfristig erhöhtes Timing‑ und Commencement‑Risiko dämpft das US‑Leasing leicht; mittelfristig stützen Services, Kosteninitiativen und CoreSite‑Edge das Wachstumspotenzial.
American Tower — KeyBanc Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forum
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everybody. My name is Brandon Nispel. Welcome to the KeyBanc Technology Leadership Forum. I cover comm services for KeyBanc in towers, data centers and such. Super happy to have Ed Knapp, CTO of American Tower with us. This is your eighth year at the conference. Thank you for coming.
Eighth presentation, I think, too.
Yes. Maybe just help us understand what's your role, what's your function as CTO at American Tower?
Thanks, Brandon. It's great to be here. Brand-new venue, so really, I think everyone is appreciating that. At American Tower, I joined 8 years ago to try to help them get more technical in the sense to bridge the gap with just towers being a passive business to looking at additional extensions of those towers. And some of the areas I've worked on, and we've been successful in is data centers, for example. So we purchased CoreSite in 2021, and that's a big part of our capital plan now.
Another part of it is satellite. So we invested in AST SpaceMobile. I sit on the Board there, and we're seeing the convergence of satellite in terrestrial networks. Other areas, Power-as-a-Service is something that we do in Africa out of necessity. But if you think about how we need to transform. The data centers already do space-powered cooling, but tower business really never got into the power part of it. And as we look at pushing more and more virtualized platforms out to the tower, it's going to look like small data centers, and we've been doing a lot of work on the Edge. So that's a big part of my remit.
We've dabbled in fiber, done a bunch of other things with our assets. But for the most part, that's what I focus on. And 6G, of course, is the future technology that we can get into.
Let's talk about the intersection of sort of towers and data centers, maybe to start. American Tower acquired CoreSite, what, 3, 4 years ago. At the time, there was a view and like strong conviction that the Edge would play out in terms of towers and data centers as being sort of converged infrastructure. I think companies admitted that, that thesis hasn't played out as quick as you might have liked. What keeps you convicted that, that's sort of a thesis that you can continue to pursue?
Well, I think it has moved to the right compared to what maybe people thought. But I do believe, just from being here, and you hear a lot of the work people are doing, for example, with agentic AI, the movement from a lot of training into production to models that would be more inferencing. You could talk about them being on-prem, but the power consumption says they need to be in a more, let's call it, comprehensive facility. And so we've been working on a Raleigh data center for the last, let's say, 1.5 years, 2 years to try to prove that concept.
Part of it is we have CoreSite. So we know the data center business really well now when we look at it as, let's say, a campus like colocation facilities with large interconnection. So the thesis was that, that will distribute, right? At some point, you need to look at bringing more and more peering points closer to the Edge, and you need to look at how is the wireless and wireline network is going to converge. And we see that, in fact, previous speakers talked about that today that the wireless network has been a thin pipe and is getting bigger with 5G and ultimately with 6G. That's going to drive a lot more data. And that data gravity is going to say things need to happen at the Edge.
So it's going to be a longer journey than I think most people would have liked. But the reality is, I still believe with conviction that we're going to see more distributed compute. We're starting to see customers excited about what we're doing in Raleigh, and that trend will continue. And we're in a great position because we have the hyperscalers and the colocation facilities and essentially the wireline side of the business, we have all the MNOs and the towers on the wireless side of the business and we're at the center of that convergence.
So talk about sort of in the last 3 years, what type of progress you've made in terms of establishing these Edge facilities? You talked about Raleigh. How many locations do you have? Where do you see that going over the next 3 to 4 years?
So early on, we had a couple -- even before CoreSite, we started dabbling in Edge. There were some misconceptions by certain players in the industry that you would just magically put a shelter at the base of a tower and the traffic would break out. Even today, we're still not at 5G with SA, where you can break out the traffic everywhere you'd like in a more efficient way. Most of that traffic always got backhauled to the mobile core. And so early on, we dabbled in trying to place small facilities like on the order of 100 kilowatts, 10 racks, believing that communities would look at those as local data centers. And we did 1 in Jacksonville, we did 1 in Austin, we did 2 near Denver, we did 1 in Pittsburgh and 1 near Atlanta. And we also bought our facility before CoreSite called Colo Atl, which is a meet-me type room. And we learned a lot from the fact that nobody wanted to be in those sites at the level we thought. They were small and the persons and players we were working with thought that they would fill up and become localized outsourced from on-prem for small and medium businesses. And there was some demand, but not enough to really justify it. But we made really small investments. And we learned a lot about what not to do given the overhead of how many racks you can sell, what the price points would be?
And then we sort of doubled down after we bought CoreSite, learning what we know about how to operate their -- how they operate their business, how great they run from a customer perspective, the overall colo market and where the trends were. Originally everybody was focused on latency. That never played out. It's going to, but it's still one of those things at the long term. Then it was data gravity, and we never got a lot of that heavy data, which we're starting to see transform on the uplink and more balance between downlink and uplink traffic, especially as you start to move to more sensors and video.
But the thing that's driving it now is power, right? Power is getting constrained in a lot of these centralized locations. And so that's saying, where can you find power to distribute out to the Edge? So when we built Raleigh, we said, look, we're not going to build 10 -- when we do CoreSite, we build sort of on the order of anywhere from 10 to 30-megawatt type of facility. And we have a campus where we can interconnect them with fiber. When we look at Raleigh, what we did is we looked at something on the order of 5 megawatts or less. And in this case, we deploy them as modular increments of 1 megawatt. So the first megawatts out there, it's being sold, and there are a number of different types of customers that are interested in that, bare metal services, GPU as a service companies, the optical companies that are local, access networks want to be in there. And that's bringing even some local enterprises who think of saying, "Can you get me higher power density," which is our second drop of modular. We can add liquid cooling. I'm going to do that faster than a lot of the retrofits that are going today in the larger scale facilities.
So we're seeing this need through power as almost being the entry point. And then once you can get to scale, you'll start to see that next phase of not just the data gravity part, but the latency part kick in.
So I wanted to ask, I mean, I think we hear headlines of all the big numbers of megawatts and gigawatts even being built. These are smaller facilities. There's also -- telcos have a lot of central offices with probably in the range of 5 megawatts type of power. What do you see ultimately as like the driving force to get customers? And what's like the inflection point around like really establishing that business?
Well, today, I think in the last, let's say, 2 years or so, the 100-gigawatt data center in -- largely in the connected GPUs, that trend is going to continue as far as CapEx will drive it, right? And people need to have that. And that's not our business, right? That's not what we do. But we do need to interconnect to those facilities, and we do that through our cloud interconnection. So in CoreSite, we have the ability to sort of handle those 100-megawatt to gigawatt plus facilities through our relationship with the hyperscalers. But more importantly, the question is, what happens next?
When you start looking at transformation, we heard a lot even this morning's panel about where AI is, agentic AI, production of real tools that take advantage of LLMs and even small language models to really transform businesses, we're still in early stages and frankly, a lot of large companies are worried because it's moving so fast. Do I put money in and then it's obsolete.
So at the Edge, you kind of have an opportunity to experiment without building out a major facility on-prem. If you don't have them today, you're not going to have, let's call it, tens of kilowatts of rack power density available to you, right? Maybe you had a couple of kilowatts when it was old CPUs and you're running Dell and HP servers. Now you got to run something that's a much more substantial platform. And you don't want to do it also on your own, you could share it, right? So some of these folks believe that, that investment, while it's moving so fast, is not worth it. Let's just rent it. And we can do that locally where we have tech companies in the Raleigh area, 2 of them that are saying, we need to run it for, for example, managing networks. This is networks that are in the service provider place that they actually have equipment that they're looking at alarms and downstream management so they can make predictions of what failures occurred and how to correct them. But they're building that on a small scale basis locally.
And then there are other people who're looking at it to try to transform how do they manage multi, let's call it, OEM platforms for adding GPUs to those hardware components. So there's people starting to experiment saying, you can get me to 75 kilowatts of rack. I can do my liquid-cooled H200s. That's something they can't get quickly, especially when most data center space, before we even build it, is being leased out. So the Edge is happening because there's this power demand. And when you transform, like people talk about transforming legacy, it's a lot harder to do that because you're saying, I have a system that was built for 1 or 2-kilowatt racks when it comes to space-powered cooling. I now need to transform that into a computer room that's modern in terms of what the requirements are. There's a lot of CapEx investment. And the question is, what's the chicken and egg problem. We try to lean into it only when we're not going to speculate on a location. We want to have anchored customers and tenants.
In the case of Raleigh, because it's a new product, we did lean into it speculatively. And we believe because we've done a lot of work on, let's say, 30 more locations where we have land, we have a tower, we have fiber providers, we have the capability, we do the zoning and permitting and we do the power discussions with the local utility to get to several megawatts is a much faster path. We can do that in 12 to 18 months versus building a 3-year facility that's on the order of these 10 to 30 megawatts.
Interesting.
So there's a speed element, and there's this ability to transform your business with risk knowing that the underlying GPU hardware is changing so quickly, you could rent it, you don't have to put it on-prem and buy it. I have even talked to universities about that saying departments are getting grants saying, "Oh, we need AI in their research." But then the IT department is like, "Well, where are we going to put it?" And then they go, "Well, build a new data center." And then they'd be like, "Well, all these departments have their own variations of what they need, why don't you just put it into the community and have that be shared," which is really the basis of cloud.
Got it. I want to take a little bit of a step back. I mean you've been a CTO for a long time. You're a technologists. Where would you sort of characterize where we are from an AI perspective?
I mean, look, at the end of the day, people will say, ML has been out there for a while. You move from algorithms to other types of deep neural network models. A lot of that work I saw at my tenure at Qualcomm. We were doing a lot of research looking at those models when they first came out when they were looking at ResNet and the ability to go to deep neural networks, lots of layers, lots of parameters, that early recognition of, let's call it, images or other types of attributes that you can test against and train against, but the probabilities were still low. As that started to get higher with deep neural network models, the game changed. And then it was really until we got to these large language models, which democratize that made it available, everybody was talking about AI.
So we are at the point where we're still in the early, I think, innings of transformations, but you're seeing that in every company is that we even ourselves looking at it how do we use these tools to improve productivity? Part of our initiative now is efficiency, right? We're trying to globalize our business, get all our data sets and, let's call it, label data into data warehouses so we can start to make more efficient productive use of that data set. Because we had a lot of like acquisitions over the years, and we had a lot of towers that were built and operated in Africa, Latin America and Asia, Europe, they all had different data sets. And so we're trying to harmonize that now as part of an initiative that's sort of going to be multiyear. We believe that AI internally will be a game changer for that.
I still think when you think about it in the context of quantitative and reasoning, to me, that's the world I live in. And it's been early days because we had hallucinations, people did not trust it, you get a lot of creativity out of the AI, but how do you really get it to get to an answer that allows me to move forward as an individual more productively. And I start to see that happening now. And more and more companies don't need the old entourage of like all the people when they start out. They can say, it's a few folks, and then there's a lot of AI around them to help them navigate the landscape.
So I think we're at a point where it's being adopted, and it's going to get pushed out, and we need to move from training to actual use cases. And I see a world where there's a lot of value in orchestration. So being able to orchestrate agents across use cases at the consumer and enterprise level will be super productive. And you'll be able to have your own sort of world that serves you and is much more productive than administrators or others who are trying to take care of your daily needs, all that goes away and becomes kind of a twin of your needs and learns who you are, what you do and almost predicts what you want, brings you that cup of coffee with the robot in the morning, I mean those things will happen sometime in the future, but I'm excited. I think this is a really great time in technology, and AI is a big driver of that.
Got it. Let's switch gears and talk about the tower business a little bit. And I even -- before we get to towers and sort of the spectrum opportunity over the next 5 years, AST SpaceMobile, I mean, direct-to-cellular service from satellites has been a topic. How do you think about that, in terms of maybe an opportunity or maybe a competitive threat?
Yes. I think I've looked at that for many years. First, we met them like 6-plus years ago, and we made an early investment in them. And I thought that, that was really important because the way the AST team was looking at directed devices was very different than what I had seen before in my days at Qualcomm. All required changes in components, and I said, you can keep the same cell phone and you can lose a large aperture array in the sky. And you can get that up there and unfold it. That's a game changer, right?
And so we made a couple of investments in the business, but I always believe it's fully complementary. You're not going to take thin layer of coverage and few number of satellites and displace the tower business. Towers are there -- they're like railroads and tunnels and infrastructure that I don't see going away. Wireless spectrum will continue to be used in many different ways, even shared in the future with AI using it to make more predictive intelligence around where users consume spectrum. We get more efficient in bits per second per hertz.
But I think the satellite really transforms this connect the unconnected first to white space. But more along the edge is the boundary where it was uneconomic to really build towers and then ultimately provide a thin layer to create more of a seamless user experience so that you always have a backstop of maybe texting or maybe some low bit rate voice to be everywhere. And that's what the SCS order from the FCC did is it. It said, you can't just do this on a old school license by license territorial basis, you have to do it nationwide. So AST got through with some of the operators to be able to get access to low-band spectrum nationwide. It's not a lot of spectrum, but it gives you that thin layer. And then more recently, through a lot of their efforts, they've started to go after and work with partners on MSS spectrum. So it was the L-Band Ligado announcement, and then there was this S-band that just came out earlier last week.
So those things are adding a little more depth in spectrum, but you're still talking tens of megahertz versus what you're going to see is hundreds of megahertz that are going to be available terrestrial with fiber. So the 2 of them will have to seamlessly work together, and I think it's very complementary and I think it's super exciting. And we'll get to the point where it's like connect, drop, reconnect to the point where it's like, stay connected, but thin, to then a more integrated view when we get to 6G where NTN gets built in. And now we even have layers of resiliency in the network. And I think that's really going to help us for disaster recovery and for the future.
Now just to put you on the spot, DISH, earnings call a couple of weeks ago talked about building a satellite network to serve mobile use cases, right? Were they really talking about trying to take some of those high-cost sites for the carriers in rural areas and really complement those or even potentially have them offload a lot of the traffic that would otherwise be on a tower site in a rural market onto the satellite service. What do you think about what they were talking about from a sort of like satellite to cellular connectivity?
Yes. I mean I think in -- as an idea and conceptually, you can say, yes, I can do that. In practice, think about in-building. Think about the way a terrestrial tower is helping in those communities be more, let's call it, pervasive in terms of the signal strength. You're not going to say, okay, let's take out those towers. First of all, there's an infrastructure investment there. To put beams from the sky directing them directly to a particular area is going to consume a lot of the capacity. The satellite's got thin capacity trying to spread over a large area, so wants to focus it where it's going to be most valuable. And if you already have a tower, are you going to say, "Oh, I think I could save a few thousand dollars on OpEx, and I'm going to use that from the sky," well, who are you not going to serve because you're making that choice.
Because you already made that investment, I think it's there to stay. You could argue that around the edges, and there's some benefit. And I think some sites might be just completely like not covering a lot of POPs and just covering land. And -- but I think there's such a small, small era in the scheme of things.
Okay. Fair enough. Switch gears. I mean, tax, new tax bill was passed. It gave the FCC spectrum auction authority. They have to auction a certain amount of spectrum over the next several years. Maybe what do you see as the opportunity for American Tower? What spectrum bands? What's sort of up and coming in your view from a spectrum standpoint?
No, super excited that we finally got some auction authority back. I think the OBBB, I guess, is what we call it. 800 megahertz, 500 for the government and TIA, 300 FCC needs to get done in 2, 4, 8 years. We've looked at all those bands. I think -- so from our business, very simply, the tower business is there's 3 phases. First phase is spectrum. Spectrum drives new radios, drives new deployment for coverage. That's all amendments, generally speaking, but could be new colos depending on the frequency band. Second bucket is technology. So every G is really driving higher bits per second per hertz. How do we get more capacity out of what assets we already have? The third leg of that is colocation and densification. And so you can't squeeze the technology any further, you need to go and build more sites. That's our business.
So when spectrum starts out, it really opens up that framework. And we'll see that towards 6G with even more spectrum around the world harmonizing. But the bands of interest are, first and foremost, upper C band, 3.9 to 4.2. We had our altitude or altimeter arguments maybe a year or 2 ago. I think the filters in those things can get changed to the point where that 100 megahertz initially and those frequencies will get picked off fairly quickly. There's some reauctioning of AWS that was never put out.
And then the debate start really around 2 areas, 6 gigahertz, which is generally the unlicensed WiFi. And there's a lot of spectrum there between upper 5 and like lower 7. The government has also taken off the table 3.1 to 3.4 and 7.4 to 8.2 or 8.1. Some of those bands are really the ones where wide harmonization of 6G is going to happen. So we have some soul-searching to do there. But I think, I always believe 6 to 7, there could be room there to work with the WiFi community through more advanced techniques of coexistence and spectrum management, shared spectrum management, but that's going to be probably a debate.
The other one is CBRS. There's some proposals out there that says, "Oh, let's reclaim CBRS and move them to 3.1, 3.4." I don't see that really happening. It's so much invested in private 5G. I've done a lot of -- we've done a lot of work too in private 5G during my tenure. And I think that, that market is really starting to take off, and there's a lot of companies that are benefiting from that. And I see though that there's also 12 gig as you get to the upper mid-band, those bands will take more time in terms of components and relocations. So the top of the list is the 3.9 to 4 for the FCC followed by what they could do with the U-NII bands at, say, upper 5 to 7, 8. What do they do in there?
On the NTIA, they have 4.9. They have 4.4, 4.5. They have some of the other spectrum that they are looking at beyond that in terms of 2.9, 2.7, there's some things in there that they're looking at as well. NTIA is really the key here going forward because the FCC doesn't have as much wiggle room with spectrum. And we just need to do a better job as an industry of getting more efficiency out of what we have.
So the upper C band should be sort of first to auction?
And that will be great for again, the operators to get more capacity.
What do you see as the time line for potential...
Well, they have to do that in 2 years, right? This is the first...
For the upper C band?
Yes. The first step is 2 years, 4 years, they have to deploy it by, I guess, is -- the auction will be in 2 years is what they are saying.
And then in between that 2- and 4-year period after the upper C-band auction, 6 gigahertz, 4 gigahertz?
I think there's a fight on 6. There's a fight on CBRS that has to happen. There's a little bit more work up in the upper 12, 12 gigahertz that has to happen. The government, again, with the NTIA has to work to get 500 megahertz. And so they have a lot of work to do to find out in the 4 gig, what are they going to give up in that -- in those frequency bands to get more spectrum out there in the marketplace. I think these are all really good opportunities.
Got it. Any questions from the audience in the last minute?
Just a quick one. 5G seems to have rolled out slower than most of our expectations. Is the new tax bill going to help the carriers finally start moving forward a little faster? Or do we need native AI on our iPhones to get the Edge going? Kind of a double edge question there.
Well, I think the depreciation piece does help the operators accelerate. And I do see -- I spent a lot of time looking at the next change into 6G. So the specs aren't there yet, wouldn't happen until 2030. But I see that this next level of -- I was just showing Brandon the smart glasses with Apple turning in that say, in 2027. But these being in the market today and growing rapidly in terms of one of the use cases for consumers, but the next 24 months will be exciting to see how many of these types of products end up and will drive uplink and will drive demand for growth in the 5G.
We never really had true 5G because we didn't have a 5G core with a 5G radio. We always had a 4G core with a 5G radio. Some operators were faster than others. I think they'll all get there now. Then we can start slicing the network. We could start monetizing parts of 5G that we hadn't been able to do. Before that, it was just best efforts. And it really was more incremental ARPU if you could get it by charging more and the consumers weren't ready for that. They said like, I get everything I need with 4G.
So we're in a position now I think that's really good at monetizing 5G, getting more use cases out, getting these new devices in and sets the table for why we need 6G. Because you could argue 5G has been slow, why do we need to invest in 6G? Well, it's the spectrum, and then it will be new applications. And in that world, we're looking at taking the physical world, which think about AI, right? We're only dealing with text, maybe some other multimodal like in terms of image and video. Today, you're going to sense the environment and integrate that. So you'll have physical models, as [ Jensen ] has talked about, taking the physical world and modeling that, that's going to have to get pushed down to the Edge. And machine to machine, so whether you're doing a drone or autonomous car or robot or DoorDash delivery, that's going to require a lot of localization of sensing and communication between that.
So I see a world of what I would call telecomputing, right? The telecommunications network and computing have to merge in a way at the Edge that gives you that user experience, and that will lead us into the next decade. And I think that's great for the operators. I think it's great for consumers and businesses and obviously for infrastructure companies.
Great. With that, we're out of time. Ed, thank you very much.
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American Tower — KeyBanc Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forum
American Tower — KeyBanc Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forum
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Positionierung: American Tower entwickelt sich von reiner Turminfrastruktur zu einer Konvergenzplattform aus Masten, Colocation (CoreSite) und modularen Edge‑Rechenzentren.
- Treiber: Wachstum wird weniger durch reine Latenz als durch Power‑Verfügbarkeit (Leistungsdichte) und Interkonnektivität getrieben.
- Satelliten: Direkt‑zu‑Handy‑Satelliten (z. B. AST) werden als ergänzende, nicht ersetzende Technologie bewertet.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- CoreSite‑Strategie: CoreSite (Akquisition 2021) liefert Know‑how für Colocation/Interconnection und verbindet amerikanische Hyperscaler mit Funknetzbetreibern (Mobilfunknetzbetreiber, MNOs).
- Edge‑Produkt: Raleigh als Proof‑of‑Concept: modulare Milestones à 1 MW, Zielgröße ~5 MW, Angebot für GPU‑/liquid‑cooled‑Workloads und lokale Bare‑Metal‑Anbieter.
- Power‑First‑Ansatz: Power‑Knappheit treibt Edge‑Adoption; American Tower nutzt vorhandene Flächen/Tower und kürzere Bauzeiten (12–18 Monate) statt großer 3‑Jahres‑Campusprojekte.
- Interne KI‑Initiative: Harmonisierung von Datensätzen nach Akquisitionen, Einsatz von Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) zur Effizienzsteigerung und Orchestrierung.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Raleigh‑Details: Konkrete Modularstrategie: erste 1‑MW‑Einheiten verkauft; Erweiterung in 1‑MW‑Schritten möglich, Liquid‑Cooling als zweiter Drop.
- Rollout‑Tempo: Für Standorte mit Land, Fiber und Genehmigungen werden 1–5 MW in ca. 12–18 Monaten als schnellerer Weg zur Skalierung genannt.
- Learnings: Frühe kleine Edge‑Sites (Jacksonville, Austin, Denver x2, Pittsburgh, Atlanta) zeigten begrenzte Nachfrage; heutiger Fokus ist auf besser dimensionierten, leistungsstärkeren Modulen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Satelliten‑Risiko: Nachfrage nach D2C‑Satelliten (AST, DISH) — Management sieht Ergänzung, nicht Substitution; Tür für Notsicherung/Disaster‑Recovery offen.
- Spectrum & Timing: Diskussion zu Auktionen (u. a. Upper C 3.9–4.2 GHz) mit Fristen ~2 Jahre; NTIA/FCC‑Koordination bleibt Unsicherheitsfaktor.
- Kommerzialisierung 5G/Edge: Fragen nach Beschleunigerfaktoren (Steuervorteile, native KI‑Devices); Management nennt Depreciation‑Effekt positiv, vermeidet aber konkrete Absatz‑/Flächenprognosen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Aktionäre: Diversifikation in Colocation und modularen Edge erhöht adressierbares Marktvolumen und schafft neue Einnahmequellen; Power‑fokussierte, modulare Projekte reduzieren Time‑to‑market. Potenzial ist signifikant, aber Rendite hängt von schnellerer Nachfrage, regulatorischem Spektrum‑Timing und weiteren Kundenanker‑Verträgen ab.
American Tower — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Tower Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
I would like to turn the call over to your host, Kate Reed, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining American Tower's Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. We have posted a presentation, which we will refer to throughout our prepared remarks under the Investor Relations tab of our website, www.americantower.com. I am joined on the call today by Steve Vondran, our President and CEO; and Rod Smith, our Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer. Following our prepared remarks, we will open up the call for your questions.
Before we begin, I'll remind you that our comments will contain forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Examples of these statements include our expectations regarding future growth, including our 2025 outlook, capital allocation and future operating performance and any other statements regarding matters that are not historical facts. You should be aware that certain factors may affect us in the future and could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements.
Such factors include the risk factors set forth in this morning's earnings press release, those set forth in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and in other filings we make with the SEC. We urge you to consider these factors and remind you that we undertake no obligation to update the information contained in this call to reflect subsequent events or circumstances.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve.
Thanks, Kate. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining the call. As you can see from our results, 2025 continues to be a good year. Demand for our tower leasing, service group and data center businesses combined with FX tailwinds as well as to raise outlook for property revenue, EBITDA and AFFO. These results highlight the ongoing strength of our global businesses and the durability of mobile network demand that underpins it and American Tower continues to offer a predictively compelling value proposition for investors against a volatile macroeconomic backdrop. I'll briefly share a few highlights and trends before Rod discusses more detailed results and outlook.
Mobile data consumption continues to decline, driving increased demand for network capacity in every region where we operate. We see this demand capitalized activity across our extensive tower footprint and drive network upgrades as the sunsetting of legacy radios [indiscernible] only [ G cycles ]. Carriers and developed markets continue to expand and mature their 5G networks as they work toward aggressive coverage and quality targets between now and the end of the decade, while emerging market players actively complete their 4G rollouts and selectively yet increasingly pursue the 5G cycle.
In our developed tower markets, which consist of the U.S., Canada and Europe, Mobile traffic growth rates are anticipated to slightly outpace global averages over the next 5 years. And increasingly data-intensive and uplink use cases with mobile video, AI and new devices we'll continue to stress networks and profit both mid-band coverage and capacity driven 5G activity across our tower footprint and retain.
In the U.S., we see the 5G cycle playing out in line with our original expectations as carriers continue to sign upgrade activities work towards 2026 5G coverage goals and begin early densification or any colocation activity to improve network quality. We still see significant differences in mid-band rollout progress across our portfolio, positioning us well to capture substantial new business for both amendments and colocations with the latter comprising an increasingly material share application mix for certain big 3 customers.
On a combined basis, total application volumes increased more than 50% year-over-year, representing strong broad-based demand for ourselves. Our U.S. services business posted a near-record quarter propelled mainly by outsell construction services, signaling our customers' increasing recognition of the quality, efficiency and overall value that we provide through our best-in-class offerings.
Next, our Europe business also continues to trend in line with expectations, benefiting from a healthy overall operating environment and strong customer agreements that provide both growth and insulation from various customer shifts across the region. Mid-band coverage now stands at just about 55% of the markets where we operate, which is slightly ahead of the continental average and leaves a significant runway for more beverage-oriented activity as carriers pursue 2030 rollout targets.
Additionally, spectrum extensions and related coverage obligations in Germany should unlock long-term investment and yield future growth benefits and in the near term are bringing energy and momentum to 5G rollout activity. In our emerging markets, we've raised our outlook due to a mix of FX tailwinds and core leasing outperformance.
Our Africa business continues to post robust growth results benefiting from a stabilized lower churn care landscape better consumer pricing in key markets and supportive demand dynamics. 5G maturity remains limited in the region, with most activity focused on 4G rollout in densification but we do see early 5G deployments continue to progress in select urban areas, propelled by use cases of fixed wireless. Activity has improved in markets like Nigeria, where higher consumer prices are supporting better carrier economics and unlocking stronger levels of network investment.
Growth in Latin America remains muted relative to historical trends our expectations for persisting low single-digit growth through 2027 remain unchanged. However, consolidation has normalized in Brazil and new activities anticipated across the more stabilized 3-player market as carriers work to fulfill regulatory commitments in the region that realize better margins from higher ARPs. Our outlook for the region has modestly increased but along with some improvements in markets like Brazil, we're seeing continued elevated levels of churn as carriers rationalize the infrastructure and acquire the consolidation activity.
Moving to our data center business. We continue to see exceptional performance from CoreSite and have increased our 2025 expectations to reflect new growth attributable to the recently acquired DE1 facility as well as elevated demand and pricing from our broader portfolio of interconnection data center facilities. Hybrid and multi-cloud IT architecture requiring secure low latency interoperability remains a primary driver of demand. The early phases of AI-related workloads, including inferencing, machinery models and GPU as a service represent a fast growing component of [indiscernible] leases.
Capacity constraints from high absorption rates and continued AI-driven demand from both very large hyperscale players across the wider market and the enterprise customers that value our interconnection ecosystem are driving a sustained favorable pricing and pre-leasing environment that we expect to continue into the foreseeable future. These tailwinds have enabled us to remain selective in our customer mix to curate high-quality ecosystems while exceeding our initial underwriting assumptions. We plan to continue to prioritize funding CoreSite on a success basis and in line with our capital allocation strategy to replace supply and facilitate future revenue.
Overall, our outlook is generally looking up as we have the second half of 2025, but we remain focused on delivering our differentiated value proposition and staying true to our stated strategy. Our experienced team is well versed in addressing certain ebbs and flows across our global footprint and our strategic long-term focus enables us to benefit from the durability of tower leasing and growing mobile data and competing demand trends.
Our superior global portfolio, best-in-class services and customer delivery, high-quality balance sheet, protective contracts and highly disciplined approach to capital allocation already enable us to extract significant value from the global tower landscape, but we remain motivated to continuously improve and deliver even more [indiscernible] stakeholders.
Now I'll hand it over to Rod to discuss second quarter results and our revised 2025 outlook. Rod?
Thanks, Steve, and thank you all for joining the call. As noted in this morning's press release, we had a strong second quarter driven by resilient demand across our global portfolio, we are well positioned to benefit from growing mobile data consumption and confident in our ability to sustain growth through the second half of the year. Before diving into our Q2 results and our revised full year outlook, I'll share a few highlights.
First, leasing momentum remains strong, resulting in consolidated organic tenant billings growth of 4.7%. Our U.S. services business had a near-record quarter while application volumes among the big 3 were up over 50% year-over-year. This was primarily driven by amendment upgrades and a 200% year-over-year increase in co-locations. CoreSite also had an exceptional quarter with double-digit revenue growth and gross margin expansion, fueled by hybrid cloud demand and AI-related use cases.
Strategically, we closed the acquisition of our DE1 data center asset in Denver and deployed over 75% of our discretionary capital in developed markets. rising to over 85% when including acquisition capital. Finally, we strengthened our balance sheet by issuing EUR 500 million in senior unsecured notes at 3.625%. Proceeds were used primarily to pay down existing debt. At quarter end, floating rate debt was approximately 7% of our total outstanding debt and net leverage stood at 5.1x.
Turning to second quarter property revenue and organic tenant billings growth on Slide 6. Consolidated property revenue grew 1.2% year-over-year in more than 3% when excluding noncash freight line revenue despite absorbing more than 70 basis points of FX headwinds. Year-over-year growth was negatively impacted by 2% due to a change in nonrecurring revenue in the current period relative to the prior year. U.S. and Canada property revenue declined by more than 0.5% and grew approximately 3% when excluding noncash straight-line revenue. despite absorbing more than 100 basis points of Sprint churn. International property revenue grew approximately 1% year-over-year and approximately 3% when excluding the impacts of foreign currency fluctuations. Finally, property revenue in our data center business grew over 13%.
Moving to the right side of the slide, consolidated organic tenant billings growth was 4.7%, driven by solid demand across our global portfolio. In our U.S. and Canada segment, organic tenant billings growth met our expectations at 3.7% and greater than 5% when excluding Sprint related churn. Our International segment drove 6.5% in organic tenant billings growth, a modest step down from Q1 2025, reflecting generally consistent leasing trends paired with slightly lower contributions from escalators and churn.
Turning to Slide 7. Adjusted EBITDA grew 1.8% and approximately 4.5% when excluding noncash net straight line, despite absorbing approximately 90 basis points of FX headwinds. Growth was positively impacted by continued direct expense management, resulting in a high conversion of cash property revenue and a greater than 100% increase in U.S. services business gross profit. partially offset by the flow-through of nonrecurring revenue benefits in the prior year period, increased bad debt associated with Latin America customer collections and other nonrecurring and timing-related costs. Cash adjusted EBITDA margin declined 40 basis points year-over-year, partially driven by a higher contribution from U.S. services.
Moving to the right side of the slide, attributable AFFO and attributable AFFO per share declined by approximately 6.7% and 6.8%, respectively, primarily due to more than $65 million of prior year revenue reserve reversals in our India business. On an as-adjusted basis, normalizing for the sale of India, attributable AFFO per share growth was approximately 2.4%, driven by the high conversion of cash adjusted EBITDA growth to AFFO through the effective management of below-the-line costs. partially offset by flow-through of nonrecurring revenue benefits in the prior year period previously mentioned.
Now turning to our revised full year outlook. As you will see on the next few slides, our core year-to-date results and expectations for the second half of the year are contributing to improvements across property revenue and adjusted EBITDA compared to our prior outlook. In addition, our revised FX assumptions are providing tailwinds of $130 million, $80 million and $55 million to property revenue, adjusted EBITDA and attributable AFFO, respectively. As a result, we are raising our expectations for property revenue, adjusted EBITDA, attributable AFFO and attributable AFFO per share by approximately $165 million, $120 million, $55 million and $0.12, respectively, compared to our prior outlook. At the midpoint, our expectation for attributable AFFO per share is $10.56 or approximately 6% year-over-year growth on an as-adjusted basis.
Turning to Slide 8. We are increasing our expectations for property revenue by approximately $165 million compared to our prior outlook, which includes $130 million of FX tailwinds and $15 million of consolidated core property outperformance and $20 million of additional upside, consisting of an approximately $25 million increase in straight-line revenue partially offset by an approximately $5 million decrease in pass-through revenue. Consolidated core property outperformance includes upside from international and CoreSite including incremental contributions from our recently acquired DE1 asset, outperformance was partially offset by slower commencements compared to initial expectations related to a customer in the U.S., which affect organic tenant billings growth expectations that I will touch on in a moment.
Moving to Slide 9. we are reiterating our organic tenant billings growth expectations of approximately 5% on a consolidated basis. We have revised our expectations for the U.S. and Canada organic tenant billings growth to approximately 4.3% reflecting slight timing differences due to modestly slower than initially anticipated pacing of new business. Importantly, while the timing of commencements could result in some quarter-to-quarter variability, it does not change our overall expectations to capture the new business.
In addition, we are reiterating our organic tenant billings growth expectations of approximately 5% for Europe, raising our expectations for Africa and APAC to greater than 12% due to solid carrier activity and slightly lower churn expectations and raising our expectations for LATAM to greater than 2% driven by modestly higher-than-expected contributions from CPI-linked escalators.
Turning to Slide 10. We are increasing our adjusted EBITDA outlook by $120 million compared to our prior outlook driven by the conversion of property revenue, services gross profit and FX tailwinds, partially offset by nonrecurring expense items, including incremental bad debt associated with certain Latin America customers.
Moving to Slide 11. We are raising our expectations for AFFO attributable to common stockholders by $55 million at the midpoint or $0.12 on a per share basis. Cash adjusted EBITDA outperformance and FX tailwinds are partially offset by increased minority interest and maintenance capital. Our revised attributable FFO per share midpoint is $10.56. Year-over-year, AFFO per share growth is now expected to be approximately 6% on an as adjusted basis.
Turning to Slide 12. We are modestly revising our 2025 capital plans, which include approximately $1.7 billion in capital expenditures, down $20 million compared to prior outlook and contemplates a 100 site reduction in Latin America and consistent data center spending. We continue to expect to distribute approximately $3.2 billion to our shareholders as a common dividend, which remains unchanged from our prior expectation and subject to Board approval. Moving to the right side of the slide. Our balance sheet is strong, providing financial flexibility and optionality, including $10.5 billion in liquidity and low floating rate debt exposure.
Turning to Slide 13 and in summary. We are pleased with our results through the first half of 2025, which highlights the criticality of our assets the resilience of our business model and the outstanding execution of our talented employees, we are confident in our ability to deliver sustainable growth and long-term shareholder value.
And with that operator, we can open the line for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Michael Rollins with Citi.
2. Question Answer
So first, I'm curious if you could dig further into the different observations for domestic leasing. You talked about the increase in applications from amendments and colo/densification, but also the delay in commencements from one of your customers. So can you talk about a little bit more about how that's affecting the second half of the year and is that setting up 2026 to be a better year and to get some of these benefits to come through? And then secondly, I was just curious if you could provide an update on the opportunities to extract an incremental layer of efficiency within the business?
Yes. Thanks, Mike. I'll take both of those. So when you look at the U.S. leasing environment, what we're excited to see is the increase in application volume that we expected from the beginning of the year. And so that's playing out in line with our expectations. So if you look across the board, we're seeing a healthy level of activity, we're seeing continued increases in the pipeline, and we're seeing an increase in the new colocations on that. So that's all very positive. We're excited to see that, and that's indicative of a very healthy leasing environment.
And in terms of kind of what we're expecting in our pipeline, the volume that we were expecting from our customers is consistent and the pricing is consistent. What has been a little bit slower than we expected is the conversion from one of our customers of that leasing into commencements. And that the customer that's not on the holistic agreement. And so when we did our forecasting, we had a certain cadence that we thought that we were kind of see in there. And it is moving a little bit slower than we expected.
So from our perspective, it's -- you're talking a few million dollars of in year is all in the difference. And that OTBG metric is very sensitive to the timing of commencements on it. But when you look at the health of the business and the fact that we're going to get that new business, we're very confident in that. We're not seeing anything that would indicate a pullback. We're not seeing the pipeline of applications dry up. We're not seeing potential projects or anything like that. It's just a little bit slower cadence in terms of signing leases, getting them back and getting the equipments installed. So from our perspective, there's nothing on that indicates anything other than a robust leasing pipeline.
We'll read 26 guidance to 26%. If you think about kind of the variables going into 2026. A good pipeline is important, and that's what we're seeing in the pipeline that's kind of supportive of our long-term guide that's there. We do have less contracted revenue going into the next couple of years than we had in the prior years. So we are more dependent on that activity-based revenue commencement. And so we are excited to see that pipeline continue to build. That's positive for us. we are still expecting churn to trend down, and that's not considering the U.S. Cellular transaction, which has now been approved. So I hope we'll be launching. That's a variable looking into the next couple of years to see how that's going to something. But overall, I'd say the pipeline is healthy, and we'll wait to give guidance on '26 when we get there.
As for your second question in terms of the extracting value, I've given [indiscernible] until close to the end of the year to give me guidance on that. But the efforts are progressing very well. And we've had some very good receptivity across the globe to our globalization efforts and the team is seeing opportunities in there. And just to kind of set expectations in terms of what that's going to look like. We're looking at our total addressable spend, so that's including direct expenses, O&M, SG&A, growth CapEx, supply chain, all those different areas in it. And the overall goal that we've set ourselves is to have a continuously increasing gross margin in our tower business.
So you probably shouldn't expect to see a huge decrease in direct expenses. Some of that is just the cost of doing business. But the goal is to bend the curve down so that those are growing slower than our revenue in all our -- in every geography on a consistent basis. And so as Bud works through what this looks like, it will be kind of a multiyear goal that we set out to bend that cost curve down to give us better margin expansion than what we would see otherwise on that.
So we'll continue to work through that. And again, I'll commit to you guys by the end of the year, we'll get some targets out there. But so far, everything is kind of lining up with what we thought we were going to see when we started this journey and we feel very good about that in terms of what we're going to be able to create in terms of value creation over time.
Michael, this is Rod. Maybe I can add just a couple of quick points there for you to follow up on Steve's comments. Regarding new business, all the things that Steve mentioned around timing in the U.S., you'll see that play out in our numbers, primarily in new business in organic tenant billings growth. So we were at a projection of about $165 million, $165 million or slightly better for new business. With this revised timing of the pacing of some of the deployments. That number is expected now to be more like $160 million. And it is a timing-related issue, as Steve mentioned.
And what that does is it affects OTBG in a very modest or subtle way. Our original guide was equal to a greater than 4.3% in the U.S. We've adjusted that to approximately 4.3% just to reflect the fact that we could be at 4.3% or slightly below because of this mild timing. So just to give you a little bit of numbers there.
And then I would just make one quick comment on SG&A. For the full year of 2025, we expect to be roughly flat on SG&A, excluding the bad debt. And that's after absorbing things like a few legal fees for some of the customer issues that we have in Latin America as well as managing through the very robust business in CoreSite. There is some added SG&A there to support that double-digit growth. So you'll see us absorbing that and also keeping SG&A flat with a few other kind of timing issues in there.
Our next question comes from Rick Prentiss with Raymond James.
A couple of questions. Follow-up, Steve, you mentioned U.S. Cellular T-Mobile deal now is approved. Can you frame for us what that USM exposure you think might be and the timing for that? And then obviously, more speculative, just maybe an update on DISH, what you're seeing there and what the exposure is there.
Sure. So with respect to U.S. Cellular in absolute terms, not the overlap, but the total amount of new business we have with U.S. Cellular, it represents about less than 0.5% contribution to our property revenue or global property revenues and less than 1% to our U.S. and Canada property revenues. So it's relatively small exposure overall. And if you look at that portfolio, what we don't know yet is what T-Mobile plans to do with those sites. And so as we're looking out over the next couple of years, a lot of it depends on what their plans are. And we haven't been able to have discussions on that because the deal was [ not ] approved yet.
So that's kind of a worst-case scenario. We certainly wouldn't expect to lose all of that. But there will be some of that, that they're going to want to churn off of as part of their synergies and we'll work with them on that, some of the way we have in the past. And so as that closes and we have those conversations, we can give you guys a little bit more visibility into it over time. And by the way, those percentages of total revenue, not new [indiscernible]. That's total revenue, that less than 0.5% of property revenues and 0.5 percentage of U.S. and Canada revenues on that.
With respect to DISH, we continue to watch the situation like everybody else does and to see what's happening there. We think there have been a few positive developments in terms of some of the things that publicly that they're doing. So we feel pretty good about that. The overall exposure to DISH is they represent about 2% of our global -- over 2% of our global revenues slightly over 4% of our U.S. revenues. And that's, again, total exposure for that portfolio. But again, what we're seeing is I think thing you guys are seeing the headlines are slightly positive lately. So we're optimistic and hopeful that they'll work through their situations and continue to deploy.
Rick, if I can add. Sorry, just regarding the churn since you brought up churn, I've been looking forward to saying this for a few years here, but just to remind everyone that we are in our final year of the Sprint churn. So when you think about the churn percentages for Q3, we were at a little over 2%, maybe 2.3% total churn in our U.S. business. As we work through the churn this quarter for Sprint, it's -- it won't be in our Q4 numbers or any numbers beyond that, and we expect churn as a percent to drop down to about 100 basis points or maybe even below for Q4 and then probably stay in that lower end of our range between 1% and 2% as a churn number, kind of staying at the lower end of that, closer to 1% for a little while, excluding the things Steve just talked about in terms of U.S. Cellular.
Lot of discussion lately about direct-to-device satellite connectivity. You guys own a piece of ASTS. Update us a little bit about what you're seeing in direct-to-device and what you think it might mean U.S. versus international?
We continue to see directed device as the complementary technology to the macro cell networks, delivering bandwidth via macro towers continues to be the cheapest way to deliver bandwidth to the customers, no matter where they are. So we don't view it as a threat at all to our business in the U.S. or internationally, quite frankly. The places where satellite is going to be ideal or places that have lower population densities than what the carriers would like to cover through macro towers. So when you think about the Grand Canyon or rural Montana, those are places where that's going to be an excellent way to provide coverage. And we don't have towers there. And frankly, I don't want to build towers there because there's not a good business case for doing that.
Same thing internationally. If you look at sub-Saharan Africa, there are going to be places that are much better served in a satellite. And again, we don't have towers in those areas and don't want to build towers in those areas. So overall, we believe it's complementary, not competitive. So if you think about where the satellite coverage is optimal. It's less than 100 [ pumps ] per some of the research just kind of been cited out there. So we view it as a nice niche market. We're happy with our investment in AST. We're really happy with the ringside seat that we have to see how this plays out. And it's all playing out just the way we thought. No threat and complementary, and might make a nice little profit on our investment there.
One moment for our next question, please. And is from the line of Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.
First, just to dig in a bit more into your prior comments, Steve, regarding the customer that's moving a bit slower than you had expected. Just to be clear, is this just a lengthening of the book-to-bill cycle [indiscernible]. So they're kind of a plan in signing leases that expected, but it's just dragging it in terms of when they get on air? Or are you seeing the applications come in with a bit of a delay?
No, it's exactly what we said. It's the book-to-bill cycle is a little bit longer. The application pipeline continues to be healthy. It's just not moving along as quickly as we anticipated to do.
Okay. Okay. So it's in your backlog, it's just purely timing then.
Exactly.
Okay. Great. And then maybe switching to CoreSite. Could you talk a little bit about CoreSite's position in the supply chain and kind of the risk management strategy you have in place. In particular, I'm thinking with the jump in demand for a lot of key components to support big projects for both established new players, I'm curious as to whether it's becoming at all more challenging for CoreSite to kind of keep its place in line.
Well, a lot of the supply chain challenges really started during COVID. And so that whole supply chain process lengthened several years ago. We had to adjust our strategy then. So we started prebuying those long lead time items several years ago. And the way you secure your place in line is you got to pay a deposit down on that equipment. And so we've been very proactive in looking at that over time and securing those places.
The other component that we're watching very closely like everyone else is, is the effect of potential tariffs on some of those supplies because a lot of those components can only be sourced overseas. And what we're doing to protect ourselves there is building a contractual mitigation so that if there are an increase in cost, what we're doing with pre-leasing that we have a mechanism to adjust that to make sure that we're getting that mid-teens stabilized yield that we're underwriting on things.
So I feel very good about the actions the teams have taken to be able to secure that. And for all of our kind of development pipeline that we have in view and the things that we've planned out we're secure on that. It may make it challenging to accelerate things from the pace that we originally wanted. We'd like to accelerate some of this development because the demand environment is so healthy right now and it does make that a little bit more challenging, but we are finding ways to do that in some circumstances as well. So certainly a challenge out there that we're all facing, but something that I've talked to the team has done a good job of getting ahead of.
Okay. Great. And sorry, can I ask one quick housekeeping item on the CoreSite front as well. Anything you hear about the inorganic contribution from the Denver Gas & Electric Building acquisition, both financials and what it may have meant for interconnection adds, which looks like they may have had an inorganic bump.
Let me talk about the acquisition kind of more broadly. And then I don't know if we had any financials that Rod can share at hand right now. But that building was one where we already had a presence. It was the lease facility for us, but we didn't have the whole building. And so we had the opportunity to buy the whole building. And if you have a chance to take that interconnection how to make it owned versus leased and pick up some incremental new business and incremental interconnection along the way, that's always a good thing to do.
So we're very happy that we have the opportunity to do that, and it is the most highly interconnected site in that Denver area. So that gives us another kind of feather in our cap in terms of that portfolio. And Rod, I'm not sure if we put any public numbers out of the acquisitions or something you want to share on that or not...
Yes, just a couple of points that I would make for you, Nick. So we did close on the DE 3. We have it in our outlook. I think I made a couple of comments in the script there. but you can assume that there's roughly $10 million in property revenue and our updated outlook coming from DE1.
Our next question is from James Schneider with Goldman Sachs.
Maybe just a quick follow-up on the data center business and then I wanted to ask about LatAm. On the data center side of things, DE1 $10 million of property revenue this year, is that a good run rate to use for next year? Or could we expect a bigger kind of run rate contribution for the full year of 2026. And maybe just kind of talk about directionally whether you expect the overall CoreSite business to sort of grow the same, better or decel next year relative to this year on an organic basis?
Yes. Thanks for the question, James. So the $10 million is the in-year number that reflects the fact that we completed the acquisition earlier this year in Q2. So with that said, there would be a full year impact next year. So you'd want to prorate that. But I don't want to get into any more details around what the exact impact would be for next year.
Regarding CoreSite, you can pick up in Steve's comments his prepared comments as well as mine, the CoreSite business continues to perform very strongly, with revenue growth up in the 13% -- better than 13% for the quarter. we expect a very similar number of revenue growth for the full year. That double-digit growth also extends down into interconnection growth, which is a key element of that business. So we expect interconnection to grow interconnection revenue to grow by double digits.
We also are seeing margin expansion in the business. As I mentioned earlier on this call, we have a little bit higher SG&A in CoreSite to support the demand that we're seeing and all the new business that we've booked. So you'll see a slight bump up in SG&A, but our operating profit margin is also expanding year-over-year this year by about 100 basis points. So the business continues to perform exceptionally well.
Based on the last several years of either near record new business or record new business as we had in '23 and then again in '24, we expect that double-digit growth to continue for the next couple of years based on kind of exhausting that backlog and delivering all those new business contracts. So we couldn't be more pleased with the performance of CoreSite, not just the last several years but going forward as well.
And then as a follow-up, maybe if you can kind of talk about the LatAm business. It sounds like things are stabilizing or potentially improving there. Are we at a point where you can call a bottom in Lat Am? And to what extent could you expect some significant acceleration hitting in 2026?
Yes. We're still anticipating to have low single-digit growth for the next couple of years there. So through 2027, we're going to continue to deal with the dynamics of that market where you have higher churn we've had taken a little bit of a reserve on some collection issues there as well. And as that market continues to go through the challenges of consolidation and what's happening there, it's going to be a challenge for the next couple of years. And it's all the things we've talked about, things like Oi in Brazil and some of the consolidation in some of the other markets there. So you should expect to see that continue to be a challenge for the next 2 years. And we think that the inflection point is really going to happen in 2028. That's when we see things getting significantly better for us there.
Our next question is from Michael Funk with Bank of America.
So just coming back to the conversion from leasing to commencement from the one customer, just wonder if anything, your experience in the past, it could inform our view on the timing and what might move that forward?
It really just comes down to their priorities and what they're trying to accomplish and how they're incentivizing their teams. So there's nothing specific that I would point to in this circumstance. When you look at kind of the relative positioning of the 3 major carriers. We have 1 that's got about 85% of our sites are upgraded to mid-band 5G, one is at about 70% and one is still about 50% and that implies quite a bit of work to do to get to that kind of upper 90s percentage, which is where we think we'll end up with mid-band 5G on the site.
And so when we were doing our forecast at the beginning of the year, the way we construct that is we're going based on what the pipeline looks like, what we're hearing the priorities are for the people in the field. And then you're only talking about a relatively small slowdown in that conversion rate. So there's like a major catalyst that we're seeing on it.
And I don't want to speculate as to the reason because no one gives us a reason for it. I think it could just be the pace at which they're doing the deployments. So there's nothing in this from kind of a prior G or prior deployment that I would look at and say there's a comparison of this. It's just a little bit of a slow start to the year, quite frankly.
Okay. So nothing to point to either on the labor side, equipment provisioning or if it's simply a capital budget decision, nothing to like point to there?
There's nothing pervasive. I mean I'm sure every site has its own story, but there's no kind of general trend there.
Okay. And I think in the prepared remarks, you mentioned -- made some comments about Europe [indiscernible] actually unchanged. I thought you mentioned Germany. Can you dig in a bit more on what you're seeing in Europe and expectations for that region?
Sure. I'll touch on and then Rod, if you want to jump in. We continue to see the European carriers steadily deploying the band 5G on their site. And there's kind of a mixed bag in terms of how far along they are on that. But there is -- there are some targets in the EU to get to a certain percentage of mid-band 5G deployment by 2030. So there's still quite a bit of work left to do there. So what we're seeing on that front is we're seeing our anchor tenants continue to do amendments to get there, and we're seeing some continued deployments by other carriers.
There is some consolidation that's happening in a few markets. And our exposure, that's relatively modest. It's not 0, but it's relatively modest in terms of what that consolidation churn could be. And that will slow down some of those carriers and their deployments a little bit. But overall, the leasing pipeline there is consistent with what we had in our underwriting for the deal originally. It's consistent with our kind of mid-single-digit organic growth in Europe that we're expecting to see.
So overall, it's kind of right in line with what we thought. And none of the consolidations or kind of other news in the market is concerning us at this point.
Nick, if I could just add a -- or I'm sorry, Michael, I'll just add a couple of comments around the stability of the revenue growth expectations and particularly the organic growth. So it's a solid kind of steady mid-single-digit organic new bid, let's call it in around 3.5% contribution to organic tenant billings growth comes from that new business. That's pretty consistent with where it was last year. I think across most of the markets there, we have CPI-linked escalators that add a little bit more to that, another 2.5% or so.
And one of the other very important elements is that the churn percentage is historically pretty low and the way that our contracts work particularly with one of our largest customers, we expect that churn percentage to be below 100 basis points kind of going forward. It's been there for a couple of years since the acquisition. So you put all those things together and you get a very reliable and durable organic tenant billings growth in the mid-single digits, again, in a very high-quality market, high-quality economies, there with high-quality counterparties. So again, the acquisition that we did in Europe in our general Europe businesses very steady, very solid and of a high quality.
Our next question is from Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo.
Rod, I think you talked about a 200% increase in colocations year-over-year. So I'm just curious what the mix is in your guidance for this year, how that might trend after 2025?
And then I wanted to touch on capital allocation as well. With leverage kind of around 5x now, how are you thinking about buybacks versus M&A going forward? Maybe just a quick review of what multiples and what regions you might be interested in?
Yes. Sounds good, Eric. So regarding the co-location increase in terms of its contribution. I would start off by saying colocation contributions continue to be relatively small in the grand scheme of things. So let's call it just over 10% of our applications that have been coming in our colocation applications. Now that's up from where it was in the recent past year. So we are seeing a shift of towards colocations, but it's on small numbers.
To put it in the grand scheme of things, it's -- if you think about applications being up in the 18,000 range or even a little bit higher, you're talking a few thousand -- a couple of thousand co-locations, 2,500 to 3,000 co-locations kind of in total. So we are seeing hundreds of additional colocations, but it's not 1,000 yet. So I would put it in the category of we're seeing the beginning of a shift towards co-locations, the beginning of an increase towards colocation as a bigger contributor to our new business.
This may be the beginning of densification, but it's still early days. And with that said, I wouldn't want to predict where that's going to go in '26 or beyond. We'll just have to wait and see what the carrier plans are when they get to full 5G kind of across the board and when they may actually turn to more densification.
Before we go to the next question, I would just jump in and say, just refer back to the percentages that I gave earlier of about 50%, about 75%, about 85% going -- that are already at our mid-band 5G, that still implies a good-sized pipeline of amendment. So we would expect amendments to be a large portion of our pipeline going forward. But we do expect this continued trend of more colocations to continue to accelerate we do think densification is starting. And I've talked about this on our last call, the conversations we're having with carriers and the data requests that they're putting in are definitely supportive of the idea that we will continue to see densification as they continue to [indiscernible] their networks and there really become stress.
Yes. And then Eric, regarding your question around capital allocation, so you are correct in pointing out that we're about 5.1x leverage for the end of Q2. We still are marching towards 5.0 or below by the time we get into the second half of the year. So we're on pace with that. And the plan there is unfolding perfectly fine. One of the elements of the -- of being a 5.1x now is with the strengthening euro up against the U.S. dollar, that did drive an increase in our European, the amount of U.S. value in our European debt, which does impact leverage slightly.
So we're at about 5.1x. We want to push that down towards 5% or below. And once we are there, and I would say we're close enough to be there that we've already regained some financial flexibility, let's call it, full financial flexibility. So with that said, let me highlight what our capital allocation priorities are.
First and foremost, we fund the dividend. That dividend in the last couple of quarters has represented a 5% growth rate. We've talked in the past that we would expect because we're a REIT, that our dividend growth will largely be in line on average over multiple years with our AFFO growth. So you can think of that in the context there. We do expect to fund the dividend with a growth that's sort of in line with our AFFO growth on average. That's priority number one.
Number 2 is we have a CapEx program with internally generated projects that we prioritize because we like the returns, the contribution to the business, the long-term value that, that capital can drive for our shareholders. So we invest this year about $1.7 billion. It's been between $1.5 billion and $2 billion over the last few years. We expect that to continue as we have a robust pipeline of places to put that capital. And again, we think it's a compelling use of capital to drive shareholder value.
And then beyond that, we have options to either reduce debt and delever well below 5x or we could deploy that capital towards more inorganic growth through M&A. And I think you know our priorities there around looking to expand and increase exposure to our developed markets, which U.S., Europe and CoreSite as well.
And then beyond that, it's -- share buybacks are an option. So we will always be toggling between and evaluating reducing debt, M&A and share buybacks with an eye towards making the decisions really on a quarterly basis and annual basis. that drives the most shareholder value that represents the best opportunity at that time. And you may see us kind of bounce back and forth here and there.
We've talked many times about the capital programs, but I also want to highlight the fact that within our capital programs, that $1.7 billion, that actually represents some of our priorities, where we've decreased the amount of capital investments in some of our emerging markets at the same time that we've increased capital investments in the U.S. in our data center business and even in Europe. So you see our priorities showing up within our capital spending.
But what I would say in the final comment here is everything is on the table for us, and we will be making decisions in the best interest of our shareholders over the long term. That certainly could include share buybacks, delevering or when and if we see compelling M&A, we'll certainly look at that.
Our next question is from the line of Benjamin Swinburne with Morgan Stanley.
Steve, I was wondering if -- I know you get this question a lot, so I figured I'd ask it given just the performance of CoreSite continues to be impressive and accelerate. Just the strategic lens that you guys look at this business within American Tower, particularly as it relate -- as you talk about kind of value maximization. Does the fact the business is performing better more or less interested in exploring strategic options? Or just any change in your philosophy as you watch the business perform well would be helpful to hear as you guys think about maximizing value on this business.
Sure. Well, just to remind everyone, the reason that we bought CoreSite was because we believe that when you look at where the scale of where the puck is going to use our [indiscernible] analogy on that, we think that edge compute is a huge opportunity to drive value to our tower portfolio over time. And we believe that owning the access to the interconnection environment that, that edge has to be connected to gives us a right to lay in that space. And our initial timing on that was a little bit off. It's developing slower than we thought it was going to.
But we are confident and probably more confident today than we were even back then that the edge is going to develop the way we envision that doing. And one of the ways that we're seeing that is the wireless carriers are now talking about edge and doing local breakout that's actually peering at the edge. And you're starting to see them express more interest in the space. So we still think that, that strategic reason for buying CoreSite holds true.
When you look at the asset itself, the way we underwrote that investment is we underwrote it as a stand-alone. So meaning we weren't putting the value of the edge over the value of the asset when we bought it. We were just looking at underlying business is that can we make that work on a business case, and we were confident that we could. So in a way, the edge was kind of going to be the gravy on top of the investment, but it was a strategic reason for doing it.
The asset is performing better than our underwriting. And some of that's is derived from AI and what's happening in the whole ecosystem where it's taking up a lot of the capacity there. That's driven up pricing, which has helped us to underwrite better yields and continue to curate our customer mix the way we like to, but actually leave faster. So it is performing exceptionally well as a stand-alone asset.
That doesn't really change my assessment of what we're going to do with the asset over time. It really comes down to what's going to create the most value for our shareholders. We still think the edge is a compelling play that will develop over time. And if for some reason, that does it, then we'll make the assessment about what to do with CoreSite. Our focus in the meantime is to maximize the value of CoreSite. And so we continue to invest what we need to invest and to maximize that value.
We set up a private capital partnership to give us flexibility in terms of how we finance it. So there's never a situation where CoreSite feels like you can't do what it needs to do to maximize that growth. And so we think that we're doing all the right things to create the most value for the shareholders, regardless of what ultimate decision with CoreSite is down the line.
Got it. That's very helpful. And just maybe one more. It was interesting last week, AT&T, I thought sounded more excited about fixed wireless than I heard them in the past. Their growth in that business is accelerating and talked about opening up more mid-band for that product. Are you seeing -- I know, again, you don't see that directly in the business, but any sense in the application activity or anything else with AT&T or your other carriers on fixed wireless starting to be a more clear tailwind towards capacity needs for your customer base?
At this point, all of our customers saying that they're using fallow capacity in the network to support fixed wireless and there's nothing that we're seeing that differs from what we hear from the customers publicly on that. I think where you would see that over time is if you start seeing rural sites that typically didn't get multiple amendments in the 4G cycle, get multiple amendments in the 5G cycle. That might be an indication. We're not seeing that yet. And we're not seeing any stand-alone fixed wireless installations at this point.
However, as you point out, all the customers are becoming more bullish on it. I'm very bullish on it. I come from a rural area where you don't have good broadband phone. I'm actually excited to see it expand in my home state. And I think that if you look at the number of subs they've got, the ARPUs they're getting. To me, that's indicative that they could make this a separate business that could support incremental investment. And if and when that happens, that's incremental to our base case in terms of what we would see in terms of the activity on our site. So that could be an upside for us. We're not seeing it yet, but I do hope that we do see that over time.
Our next question is from Aryeh Klein with BMO Capital Markets.
Maybe just on the services business, which has been quite strong. Curious if you could talk to what's been underpinning that because they have higher periods [indiscernible] lower services level. Is there anything new there or different that you're doing? And where do we kind of go from here?
No. The services business, it's indicative of 2 things. The first is a robust application pipeline. And so there's a segment of our services that we do for all of our customers kind of nationwide. And that's things like acquisitions owning and permitting, engineering services, things like that. And that component is really volume driven. So we can see the application volumes go up, that gives good tailwinds to the services business there.
There's another piece of it that's a little bit bigger chunk of the pie this year, which is construction management which we don't do everywhere, we don't do it for everyone. It's very much a niche business that we do where we have really capable teams in place on where our customers are asking for that turnkey service because it lowers their total cost of ownership. It increases the value proposition there.
That's a little bit bigger piece of the pie. But what you should read in terms of our services business this year is it gives us the indications of a healthy pipeline and we're getting some good business in the construction management. That construction business comes in a little bit lower margin. So you will, over time, as that continues to grow, see some compression in the margin of the services business, but it's all still a very healthy business, and it's good for us because it is some incremental cash flow, but also increases customer satisfaction and stickiness.
And this concludes our Q&A session for today. I will turn the call back for final remarks.
Thanks, everyone, for joining the call today. Please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team with any questions Thanks.
Thank you. And this concludes our conference for today. Thank you all for participating, and you may now disconnect.
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American Tower — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
American Tower — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Property Revenue: $1,2 Mrd. (+1.2% YoY; ~+3% ex. noncash straight‑line Effekte)
- Organisches Wachstum: Organisches Tenant‑Billings‑Wachstum 4.7% YoY (Pipeline robust)
- Adjusted EBITDA: +1.8% YoY (≈+4.5% ex. noncash Effekte)
- CoreSite / Data Center: Property‑Revenue >+13% YoY; DE1 trägt ≈$10M in‑year
- AFFO: Attributable AFFO/shr −6.8% YoY (as‑adjusted +2.4%); Nettohebel 5.1x
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Nachfrage: Starke, breite Nachfrage in Tower, Services und Data Centers; 5G‑Mid‑Band Rollouts und U.S. Colocation/Densification treiben Volumen
- CoreSite‑Fokus: Priorisierung selektiver CoreSite‑Finanzierung („fund on success“) zur Erhaltung Pricing und Ökosystemqualität
- Kostendisziplin: Globalisierungs‑Initiative zielt darauf ab, Kostenwachstum zu dämpfen und Bruttomargen langfristig zu heben
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Revision: Guidance erhöht: Property Revenue +$165M, Adjusted EBITDA +$120M, AFFO +$55M; AFFO/shr Midpoint $10.56 (≈+6% as‑adjusted)
- Wachstumsziele: Konsolidiertes organisches Tenant‑Billings ≈5%; U.S./Canada ≈4.3%; Europa ≈5%; Afrika/APAC >12%; LATAM >2%
- Kapital: CapEx ≈$1.7Mrd, Dividendenverteilung weiterhin ≈$3.2Mrd (Board‑vorbehalt); Liquidität ≈$10.5Mrd, Ziel‑Leverage ≈5.0x
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Leasing‑Timing: Verzögerte Commencements bei einem großen Kunden → ~\$5M Timing‑Effekt auf neues Business (neu ~$160M vs. ~$165M); Management bezeichnet es als zeitlich, nicht als Lost‑Business
- CoreSite/DE1: Nachfrage und Preisumfeld stark; DE1 liefert ~\$10M in‑year, Supply‑Chain‑Risiken aktiv gemanagt (Vorkäufe, vertragliche Mitiganten)
- Kunden‑Exposures: U.S. Cellular <0.5% Property‑Revenue; DISH ≈2% global (~4% U.S.) — Monitoring, aktuell kein akuter Ertragsschock
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Call zeigt resilienten Nachfrage‑Mix und führt zu moderaten Guidance‑Aufwärtsrevisionen; kurzfristige Risiken sind Timing (Commencements) und LatAm‑Sonderposten, aber CoreSite‑Momentum, Kapitaldisziplin und Dividendenkontinuität machen die Situation für Aktionäre insgesamt positiv‑stabilisierend.
American Tower — Mizuho Technology Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Terrific. For those of you who I don't know, I'm Jennifer Fritzsche, and I sit in the TMT group on the banking side. But in my former life, I was an analyst and had the privilege of covering American Tower for a long, long time. So -- and I'm really excited to have Rod Smith here. Rod, welcome. Thank you so much for joining us.
Yes. Thank you, Jennifer. It's great to be here. Nice seeing you.
You, too. So Rod is the EVP and Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of American Tower. He's also a member of the Board of Directors for ATC Europe. He joined in 2009. Is that right? Wow...
Yes, that's right. 15 years ago.
Oh, my gosh, and has had many prior roles at the company, especially when I knew him as the Treasurer and CFO of the U.S. Tower division. So welcome. We'll jump right into it.
Sounds great.
So I was seeing yesterday with AT&T, these are the years when I miss being an analyst because it's been a really fun ride in 2025 for Tower companies, certainly much better than 2024. Can you talk a little bit -- a bigger picture question. You have a long to-do list is my guess. And what is on the top of that list in terms of near-term priorities for what you want to accomplish this year.
Yes, there are a few things. I mean, certainly, there are -- there is a long list, as you suggest. The priorities for us from a macro perspective really is pretty simple. It's driving organic growth across our assets globally. We have teams, operating teams around the globe that that's their mission #1. Their priority is to make sure that we are satisfying the customers and in that pursuit that we're driving as much organic growth as we can on the assets that we currently have.
We also add to that margin expansion and driving operational efficiency around the globe. Over the last several years, where M&A, not just in our sector, not just for us, but globally and in other sectors has slowed. We've taken that time to really refocus on the operating business that we have. We have a large multinational organization that we manage, and we've been very focused on driving efficiency there, reducing complications, simplifying the structure, highlighting decision-making paths and reducing costs kind of across the board. We've done that multiple years in a row. We continue to focus on that, and that's going well. That drives margin expansion, which is critical that we, in our view and from our priority set, focus on margin expansion along with driving that revenue growth.
Balance sheet strength. And we've always had a strong balance sheet. But as interest rates went up, we reenergized ourselves around creating even more strength in the balance sheet. With interest rates rising as fast as they did, it was a time to take action a little differently than the way we were managing it before, and I think that goes for all companies. So we've been very focused on reducing exposure to floating rate debt. We've got that down now in the low single digits.
I was going to ask what...
Yes, we've got it down in the low single digits and our financial policies, long-stated financial policies suggest that, that would be around 20% of our debt stack. We've got that down to about 4%. So that gives us much more clarity around what our future interest costs are going to be because that floating rate exposure is much lower.
And in line with that, we've also been really managing our capital allocation across internal CapEx programs, M&A, share buybacks, even the dividend. We did pause the dividend growth last year to create some additional free cash flow that we could use to delever the balance sheet. We've delevered from above 5x down to 5x, which was critical for us. So that was key. We've also reduced capital spending in aggregate and use those extra funds to put back into delevering. So that's been critical.
And I would also highlight, and this, I guess, gets into the fourth priority, which is really focusing on capital allocation very intently in a very disciplined way to drive shareholder value. So even within a smaller internal CapEx program, we've increased the investments in the U.S. We've increased our capital investments in our data center platform in the U.S. and in our European business. And we've reduced capital investments across the emerging markets, India, LatAm, Africa.
So part of those reductions went to debt repayment and part of it went to fueling higher return, higher probability value add for the investors across the developed markets. And we sold India and used all those proceeds to drive down balance sheet strength. But the key to selling India was really about improving our quality of earnings and improving our outlook in terms of value creation for our shareholders, consistent durable value creation.
So you really like controlled what you have control over and really aligned the model, the balance sheet to really be well positioned. If we could break down the business, let's just start with the domestic Tower side. It seems like the carriers, I'm going to say, have finally come back to the spending table after a few years. I know you don't comment on specific customer activity. But in Q1, you noticed you were seeing a nice pickup in leases up outside of what you've incorporated in your MLAs, master lease agreements. I'm curious, would you characterize this as more coverage or capacity spend by them or a combination of both?
Yes, it really is a combination of both. I mean the large carriers in the U.S. continue to deploy 5G for coverage for 5G coverage. So that continues. And we also are seeing a slight slant towards densification. A pickup in new colocation activity from the large carriers. So they're -- not only are they investing in their current infrastructure and installations with us to make them 5G capable, they're adding additional new installations on our assets in order to strengthen that 5G coverage to densify the network. So it really is a mixture of both.
Both, okay. And a significant headwind for the Tower companies in the U.S. has been the Sprint churn. I don't think you've been immune to that and the decommissioning that comes with it. Is it fair to say the worst is behind -- speaking for just American Tower in that regard? And then I'll add on to that, if that is behind you, do you see any kind of other black swans emerging here that impact the industry?
Yes. The worst is behind us regarding the Sprint churn, absolutely. We have we are running through the very tail end of the Sprint churn for us. So we have $70 million of run rate revenue that churned off back in the beginning of Q4 of '24. We're running -- so that is a headwind to our growth this year right up and through the end of Q3. When we get to Q4 of '25, our churn in Q4 of '25 will not include any Sprint churn. That will be the first time in 4 years that we haven't had Sprint churn in there.
Essentially only two more quarters, including the one we're in.
Two more quarters, and we're done with Sprint churn. I would expect you'll never hear us talk about Sprint churn again after that. There is no other kind of Sprint churn lurking in the background for us. Everything is done when it comes to Sprint churn.
Got it.
And then after that, when you look around the U.S. business, our revenue is really underpinned with very strong carriers and the demand backdrop, the growth in mobile data consumption across the U.S. network, we expect an acceleration of 5G applications to come at the end of '25 into '26. That will be a catalyst for continued investment from the carriers. So in terms of additional black swan churn events, I think we're looking at the backdrop in the U.S. and thinking we get to more normalized churn. which is 1% to 2%. We think in this environment, that would even drift towards the lower end of that churn.
There are a few blocks out there that people look at, certainly that we look at the U.S. Cellular business is one. Everyone has questions around DISH, so I won't proactively bring that up. We'll get to that when we get to it. But even if you think about U.S. Cellular, if they were -- they represent a very small piece of our business, about 0.5% of our global revenue, less than 1% of our U.S. revenue. If you assume that they churn off completely, which we're not making that assumption yet, that would still most likely fit within our 1% to 2% normal churn range. So it really is difficult to see a black swan event in the U.S. from a churn perspective.
When I think when you start the year, knowing 90-plus percent of your revenue. I mean that's really the beauty of the Tower model. It's like it's because of the long-term contracts. Now also, I want to -- you touched on it more covered or more usage coming. I would throw in AI as well, driving usage. But I want to ask your opinion on spectrum. I mean D.C. is talking a lot about spectrum, but I think it's going to be kind of an uphill push to find it.
I think of that as either scenario if spectrum appears from Kevin that we get it or it doesn't, both of those are good for the Tower because either you have to deploy the spectrum that you get or if you don't have spectrum, you have to essentially spend through it with cell splitting. Do you agree with that assessment?
Yes, I agree 100%. I mean we are in a very fortunate situation where we're able to help our customers whether they get new spectrum or not because they'll do exactly what you said, and we will be able to help them if there is new spectrum allocated from the government, which people are working on that. And it will come eventually, maybe slower than people would like, maybe not. But when the new spectrum becomes available, the carriers will deploy that spectrum by putting more equipment on towers, more antennas, more base radios, more lines to be able to utilize that spectrum in the network.
So we get an opportunity to help our customers deploy that, which is exactly what we want to do. If they don't get the spectrum when they want or if the spectrum is delayed beyond where they would like and then they end up with some network congestion, the way we help them resolve that is they put more equipment on our towers so that they can be more efficient and reuse their current spectrum more frequently within the network. In order to do that, they add radios, add cables and lines, add antennas.
So, yes, I think the way you phrase it is exactly right. We're here to support the customers deploy their network in the best way they see fit. If they have spectrum, we can help them do that. It will be great for us as well. And if they don't, then they're going to reuse their spectrum more frequently and they can do that on our towers by adding more equipment throughout the network.
Which -- I mean, I know there's nuances to each MLA, but that would probably show itself in the form of more amendment revenue.
Yes. I would say if it was an absence of new spectrum and that was paired with growth in 5G applications, and we saw that growing mobile data consumption, there would be a scenario where that densification, those amendments, let's say, that would be required because of the need to reuse the spectrum. There could be a volume there that's not anticipated in our holistic deals that would be additions to pay for us, right?
Our holistic agreements with the carriers are mostly tied towards amendment revenue, meaning the way they work is the carrier will tell us how many amendments, how many sites they want to touch, how much equipment, what is the specific equipment they expect to put up. We'll price that. We'll give them the right to put that up, and they'll agree to pay us those fees, and we can smooth that over a number of years or however we want to do it. But the economics match up with the activity that the carriers want to do, and that's what they get.
So in a case like you're describing, if there is an increase in activity required because there's an absence of new spectrum, most likely that would be outside a holistic deal over time.
Got it. I want to shift to international. You alluded to this, but last year, you had a very, very busy year. As you noted, you exited India, you sold some assets in Australia and South Africa, I believe.
And I guess my question would be is, should we see these activities as kind of a purposeful shift to focus on more developed or am I reading too much into that?
It is a purposeful shift really towards optimizing our portfolio for the purpose of increasing the quality of our earnings. We are in a mindset of balancing quality of earnings with growth and long-term value creation. And I would say we pair that with the fact that we are a global tower company. There are certain skills that we have as a global tower operator that adds value that we can leverage with customers on behalf of investors to create good returns for people. That doesn't mean everything we've done is perfect.
And in the case of India, it was not working the way we intended it to work. We made the decision to exit India because we got to the point where the forward-looking results of India were not compelling. We didn't sell it because we had difficulty with the results and the performance over the prior 5, 10 years. It was because when we looked forward, there was really not a good backdrop for us to have a consistency and a reasonable revenue growth and return profile for our customers. And it was very noisy to manage, right? So reducing distractions, focusing on ways that we can create value and not spending a lot of time chasing a hope and a dream that wasn't going to materialize. So selling India was all about forward-looking opportunities just did not feel good to us after a lot of experience, a lot of knowledge, a lot of learnings.
And with that being said, we do believe that our highest opportunity to create sustainable value for our shareholders is to drive a high quality of earnings. Not a moderate and certainly not be low. We don't want volatility in earnings. We want to remove pockets within our business where we can have big surprises. We want to remove distractions that really prevent us from putting the full force of our focus on meaningful ways to create value.
And with all that said, we are now prioritizing developed markets. Those are the highest quality economies with the highest quality counterparties. That's where the citizens within those economies demand wireless services, increasingly so and they're willing to pay for it. So that's where those cash flows are more valuable to investors because of the durability of those cash flows. So we're focusing on the places where we can leverage our skills and our platforms to drive maximum shareholder value.
Is there, Rod, one area internationally that you're most excited about that either you have exposure already, like just geographic region, Europe, LatAm, what do you kind of...
Yes. I think -- I mean we are in a great position because we do have this diverse portfolio, which not a lot of -- not -- I don't know of any other tower company that has the -- or really any other publicly traded infrastructure company that has the diversity of opportunities that we have.
When it comes to the best opportunities we have, clearly, the U.S. market is the primary market for us. And it's not just an affection that we have for the U.S. market because it's where we started, but it's just got great demand drivers. There's just an enormous amount of continued growth in mobile data consumption. There's going to be lots of investing. If we can invest more in the U.S., that would be the #1 priority. We also have a great business in Europe, a growing business in Europe that's outperforming our expectations.
In all candid, it's not as good as the U.S. environment, but it's better than most. And so that's a place where, yes, we continue to look there, but we will be disciplined, and we're not under an illusion that growth in Europe is at all cost because it's not. We have a great portfolio there. If we don't grow in M&A in Europe, it's fine. We're going to do really well in Europe with what we have. But we will be looking at that intently. We also have the data center platform that's in the U.S., again, in that premier economy. It's a differentiated asset that really does drive value. It drives revenue growth. It minimizes churn. We have good cash mark-to-markets on renewals, and there's more capital that could be invested there at very high returns.
So -- so that is certainly something that we look at. And if that can transition into synergies, which is what we look at, the reason we own this very differentiated high-quality set of U.S. data centers in all of our U.S. towers is because we believe there could be synergies between the two, revenue synergies, maybe operating synergies over time as you see a convergence of these networks.
Which perfect segue to my next question. Obviously, you're talking about CoreSite. You're doing some interesting things on the edge, which I'll get to as well. But I think you purchased CoreSite in 2021. I mean, even before this whole AI revolution really kind of kicked in high gear. And so your timing really couldn't have been better. I'm sure there's many bankers saying, sell it now, it would be worth a lot of money. But can you -- I would love to know some how you see this evolving to kind of connect those dots with your core tower business and how that kind of transitions also to what you're doing on the Edge, namely Raleigh?
Yes. Yes. It's a great question. I would say a couple of things. First, before I highlight the edge, I'll just highlight when we originally underwrote the acquisition of CoreSite, there were a few key principles. One is we saw a very differentiated asset. It isn't your typical sort of old-fashioned data center business where you're providing space and power and cooling. These are different, materially different because there are cloud on-ramps, multiple cloud on-ramps in every facility. That's what attracted us to CoreSite.
It's highly interconnected, network dense. So our customers interconnect with each other within these facilities. They're not just keeping their own equipment there. That's why we like the business so much because we just felt the demand backdrop was so strong for that kind of a unique -- that kind of a differentiated asset. So we did see good demand drivers, not from AI, but just the traditional demand. And so we felt like the performance of that business justified the purchase price, and we were going to be in good shape from that perspective.
We also did a lot of work on risk analysis and risk mitigation. And we came out with a compelling case that the downside risk was not that significant. So that felt pretty good. We underwrote the transaction at a 6% to 8% economic growth out over the long term. We're doing much better than that. And we're not seeing a lot of AI-driven activity. So this core business is performing better than we thought as a core business.
With that said, we are beginning to see customers come in and specifically lease space and join our ecosystem for the purpose of inferencing. And so we're beginning to see that. I think that's -- it's a whole another additive demand driver for this unique asset. So I think that's pretty good, and we feel as though a high single-digit kind of transitioning to double-digit economic growth over the next several years. That's kind of in our line of sight here for that business. It's really performing exceptionally well.
And then the revenue synergies that we see, the operational synergies is as services across wireless networks and landline networks and what enterprise customers want to do for themselves become more sophisticated and latency becomes more of an issue, and they need to reduce the latency to get the peak performance and they need compute power, content caching out towards the Edge and actually computing on their own data closer to the Edge is going to reduce transport costs over the long term rather than trying to pull that information back and forth every time they want to change a number and recalculate things every time a surgeon wants to move a pain and redo kind of the imaging.
So we do think that Edge is going to be important. But that's what it's about. It's really about having that activity closer to the base radios and closer to the end user, so you can reduce latency, get the true experience for it, reduce backhaul costs. All of those things kind of come together.
And then a big piece of that is those edge facilities, we believe will have to be able to connect into on-ramps, multiple on-ramps for the cloud. And we have that throughout CoreSite. We have 43,000 towers in the U.S. We have landline customers, wireless customers. We have cloud providers as our customers. We have the largest enterprise across the space in our facilities around. So we've got the ecosystem that we own and control. And so building out an edge facility, taking landline networks, wireless networks, enterprise customers, giving them a place to run and compute, even AI, I think, will help drive that so that their 5G and beyond networks work properly.
And then giving them access into all the cloud on-ramps that we have across the country. That was another unique part of that CoreSite business was the multiple cloud on-ramps in each facility span Southern Northern California, the Chicago area out into the Northeast up in New York, down in Virginia. And then we've expanded into Miami and a few other places. So there's kind of broad distribution. We don't need a ton of facilities, but having multiple cloud on-ramps strategically located across the country is important.
Well, I can tell you with great certainty, there's a lot of people who wanted that asset. So it's a great moat around that business for sure.
I wanted to ask on M&A being -- there's been a kind of shifting back to towers, a wide, wide, wide disparity between private tower deal multiples and where the publics are trading even with a better 2025. Do you agree? And then does that keep you out of the M&A game? Or how do you see that rightsizing?
We do see it. It's a real thing. The valuations of very similar assets on the private side tend to be higher than a similar asset on the public equity side. It's been like that for a while. That's tightened up a little bit, but it hasn't tightened up to a great extent. And there are reasons for that.
Number one, I would highlight that the private capital in the developed markets have identified the towers as an asset class and the cash flows from it as highly valuable. Lots of capital is running in and doing it. So that just highlights that we have a tremendous asset. I mean, starting in the U.S. with the portfolio and the contracts that we have, it's an amazing business, but then also the optionality we have all around the world in terms of being able to explore and find pockets where we can create value in that model. So the assets are super valuable. private capital has recognized that.
The other thing that I think drives some of the differential is just the capital structuring is different, right? The private investors, they see the high-quality nature of the cash flows because it's tied to high-quality critical infrastructure. that will be paid over the long term. So they're -- it's a very secure cash flow. They're willing to lever it up quite a bit. And by doing that, they're reducing their cost of capital and expanding their purchase price. And they're competing with one another. So you see debt on the front end and the back leverage coming in and that boost pricing. We're not going to do that. We're a different type of a company being a $100 billion public company. We are BBB flat. We intend to continue to be there and continue to drive improvements in our quality of our cash flows and balance sheet. So that's what we have.
So you'll see us we're 5x levered. We may drift a little bit below that, but we'll be around that place. That, you could say, disadvantages us from a capital structuring standpoint a little bit. That is true. They lever up sometimes 8x, 10x, and that is...
Higher, right?
In a lower interest rate environment, it was more of a tailwind for them. In this environment, it's a little different, and you may see that the leverage come down from where it was a few years ago. So that disadvantage may shrink as we go forward.
The other thing I would say is we have advantages that they don't have. We are a global tower company. We can help the large multinational carriers in multiple places where other people struggle to provide that sort of value. We've got a rich history of operating excellence and the carriers understand that. That helps us in the pursuit for good acquisitions.
And so with that said, I would highlight that the Telefónica acquisition we did in Europe several years ago. We were up against private capital folks. They had the advantage of higher leverage and maybe a lower cost of capital. We had the operational advantages. And that's what won the day for us, certainly.
The other thing I would say is there's a certain place that private capital operates really well in terms of the size and scale. We're not constrained by that. So we're not out of the M&A game by any stretch of the imaginations. We have certain advantages over private capital, but there are also some disadvantages, most notably the leverage, the amount of leverage that they put on the assets.
Well, great. I know we have a few minutes left, and I want to turn it over if there's any questions. You have a mic? Any questions?
I'll just end how we started. Your overall leverage profile, you said you've reached your goal of 5x. And I guess, how does capital allocation look from here? I mean, would you -- you touched on this, but specifically, what's the focus near term?
Yes. We are in a great position. We've got a very strong balance sheet. And a strong balance sheet has to come with a very strong business. And we have a strong business. This is why we have a strong balance sheet. We have very high-quality durable cash flows. So now that we no longer have a need to delever, that would be an optional -- that's an option that we have to continue to delever, but we don't have to delever. And with -- again, with the high-quality cash flows we have, I don't feel the need to rush to delever as a priority. We will, if it makes sense, but we don't have to. That means we're going to begin to generate a lot of free cash flow that we'll have to reinvest in the business.
We will certainly be looking at internal CapEx programs. We're investing $1.8 billion, $1.7 billion in CapEx this year. So we have that amount every year that we can allocate. We can move that up. If we have good opportunities, we can move it down. And the key there, and this is one of our strengths, we can move it around. We can focus it on the U.S. and Europe and CoreSite when we want to, and that's what we're doing today. If we find something different, we can allocate it in a way that best creates shareholder value. So there is internal CapEx programs that we have been funding and we will be able to fund.
Certainly, I should highlight the dividend, right? We have a growing dividend. We'll have about 5% growth this year, which will be subject to Board approval each quarter. We took the growth rate on the dividend to zero last year. That was temporary onetime shot just to strengthen the balance sheet. And now we're resuming growth in the dividend. So that's a key priority.
And that growth in the dividend is really a REIT requirement. It's not a discretionary item for management. We are -- as a real estate investment trust, we're required to dividend out 90% of our REIT pretax income. We choose to dividend out our target about 100% of REIT pretax income because we think that's most efficient. But that dividend is required. And as our REIT pretax income increases, the dividend needs to increase. So there's not a lot of discretion there. So you'll see a growing dividend that will grow roughly in line with kind of how our AFFO per share grows over time on average over a multiple year period.
So in addition to funding the dividend and the dividend growth, internal CapEx programs, then we do have capital, excess capital will be generated that we can invest in M&A. We can increase internal CapEx programs. We can buy back our own shares. And that -- it's really just a math exercise or we could choose to delever further to be opportunistic and create investment capacity that would be available if there was anything we wanted to do.
So it's all around the math. It's all tied into driving shareholder value. Any time we look to allocate capital, it has nothing to do with tower counts, number of countries we're in, size of the business. It's only evaluated through our ability to drive durable shareholder value. And that's it, if buying back shares is the best way to do it, we will have the capacity to do that. If delevering is the right answer from time to time, we will do that. M&A absolutely will be looking at things.
Today, we don't see anything that's compelling. We haven't done an M&A transaction in an emerging market since 2018, I think, early 2018. We've done a few big transactions in the developed markets since then. So there has been kind of a long-standing focus and prioritization on developed markets.
To have such choices with your free cash flow is a problem many CFOs would love to have. That's fantastic.
Yes. I agree with that.
Well, Rob, thank you so much. Thank you, everyone, for coming and really appreciate the time.
Yes, you're welcome. It was great being here. Thanks, everyone.
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American Tower — Mizuho Technology Conference 2025
American Tower — Mizuho Technology Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Prioritäten: Fokus auf organisches Wachstum, Margenausweitung und operative Effizienz auf globaler Ebene.
- Bilanz: Delevering auf rund 5x Net Debt/EBITDA; Floating‑Rate‑Exposure in den niedrigen einstelligen Prozent (~4%).
- Portfolio: Bewusste Verlagerung zu entwickelten Märkten; Indien verkauft, U.S. und Europa priorisiert; CoreSite als strategischer Hebel.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- U.S. Wachstum: Carrier‑Ausgaben für 5G zeigen sowohl Coverage‑ als auch Densification‑Bedarf; höhere Colocation‑Aktivität und Amendment‑Upside.
- CoreSite/Edge: Data‑Center‑Plattform übertrifft ursprüngliche Annahmen; erste AI‑Inferencing‑Leases sichtbar; Edge‑Synergien mit Tower‑Footprint als Treiber für niedrige Latenz und Backhaul‑Einsparungen.
- Kapitalallokation: Disziplinierter Einsatz von CapEx (≈$1,7–1,8 Mrd.), Dividendenerhöhung wieder aufgenommen (~5% Wachstum geplant), Buybacks/M&A nur bei werthaltigen Gelegenheiten.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Sprint‑Churn: $70 Mio. Run‑Rate Ende Q4‑2024; Sprint‑Churn läuft in zwei verbleibenden Quartalen aus; ab Q4‑2025 kein Sprint‑Churn mehr.
- Finanzprofil: Floating‑rate‑Schuld auf ~4% vs. langfristiger Policy ~20%; Net‑Leverage bei ~5x; zusätzliche FCF‑Kapazität nach Delevering.
- Portfolio‑Rebalancing: Reduzierte CapEx in Emerging Markets; Mittel reinvestiert in U.S./Europa und CoreSite; Indien‑Verkauf zur Bilanzstärkung genutzt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: American Tower präsentiert ein konservativ verstärktes Bilanzprofil, klare Prioritäten für renditestarke Investitionen (U.S., Europa, CoreSite) und wieder anlaufende Dividendenwachstumsdynamik. Kurzfristig begrenzt Sprint‑Headwind, mittelfristig stabilere, qualitativ höhere Cashflows; M&A nur selektiv.
American Tower — Nareit REITweek: 2025 Investor Conference
1. Question Answer
All right. Good morning, everybody. I'm going to continue the Nareit tradition of American Tower and Raymond James continues. American Tower converted to a REIT, I think, in 2012, and we hosted you at your first Nareit presentation then. And now we're still here. I'm Ric Prentiss, head of TMT research at Raymond James. To me, TMT means towers as well as digital infrastructure, media and telecom and satellite carriers. So I want to welcome back to a second Nareit, I think, right -- or second summer Nareit REITweek?
Second summer one, yes.
Second summer one, yes, Steve Vondran, who's the CEO of American Tower. Steve, thanks for coming.
Happy to be here. Thanks, Ric.
Yes. I want to start out with kind of -- since we've been doing this a lot of years with American Tower and you've been there a long time, second REITweek summer NAREIT session. You've been at American Tower a long time. Why don't you give people a little bit of just background?
It will be 25 years in July. So I've been there for a long time, lawyer by training, was General Counsel for about a decade of the U.S. business.
I can hold that against you.
Some people do. It's all right. Ran the U.S. business for about 5 years, and I've been in the chair here for about 15 months [indiscernible].
Great. And for those now in the audience that don't know, we wrote our first tower report in January of 1999. So literally 26.5 years ago, we started talking about what this tower industry was going to become. And back then, we said, "It's a pretty simple business model." It's great, called it the best business ever, BBE, business model and that the U.S. was really a strong place.
And then it was vertical real estate, and so here we are in the real estate conference because it truly is. You don't have walls and windows, but have long-term contracts with some pretty good tenants.
We do. And it's -- you don't have the occupancy limitations that you have with other assets. And it's capital-light. So you can keep adding more revenue without putting a ton of CapEx on it. That's what makes it the best model out there.
Revenue conversion to free cash flow is a beautiful thing. I want to start with what's new or newish since last year's Nareit when it was your first time here in the summer one. You have sold the India business. You've done some pruning of some other assets. Why are you selling India? Why are you pruning? And what lessons have you kind of learned?
Sure. So the way we think about our jobs is -- running this company is we have to manage this portfolio of assets that we have better than anybody else out there. It's similar to when you're managing your stock portfolio. So we have to look at the investments we've made. Are they performing the way we want them to? And is the balance the right balance?
So when we looked at our overall portfolio exposure to emerging markets, before we divested India, we had about 40% of our AFFO that was exposed to the fluctuations you get from currency issues and macroeconomic conditions in emerging markets. And we thought that was too high. People value us because of the reliable long-term cash flow generation, the growth that we can see. And when you get too much exposure in those emerging markets, you see a lot more volatility in your earnings as a result of that. So that's kind of the philosophical thing that we were looking at.
India, in particular, was a challenge for us because a lot of the things that we thought would play out in that market when we bought it didn't pan out. It ended up having mostly captive tower companies, which changed the market dynamics. So the terms and conditions, my favorite thing to talk about, the terms and conditions that evolved there weren't conducive to the long-term growth profiles that we saw other places. You had well-capitalized captive tower companies. So that also decreased some of the opportunities to deploy capital there in the right way.
And we also were exposed to a customer who is financially troubled there. And because of that, we have nonpayment issues. 1 year, we got paid the next year. So again, that volatility in it. And for us, the way we look at portfolio management is, is that portfolio worth more in someone else's hands? And if it is, then they should be willing to pay us more than what we think it's worth in our hands. And that's what happened in India. We were able to sell to an incumbent who had an advantage there. They already had a partnership with the most dominant carrier there. They already had a presence there. And so they can better monetize that than we could. And so it made sense for us to divest it, and it fit in with this long-term vision of improving the quality of cash flow. And that's a mantra you'll hear from Rod a lot. You'll hear it from me. We're trying to improve the quality of our cash flow because that's what we think is the most desirable aspect of being a REIT and being a reliable investment that grows.
And when you think about allocating new capital, because one of the great things about the tower model is you produce a lot of cash. And then the question is, what do you do with all that cash so you can -- what's the right leverage? What's the dividend rate? But then what do you do with the excess?
Yes. Absolutely. So the way we think about the investment is -- well, first of all, where we're going to put is important strategically. And because we look at that balance in our portfolio, ex India, we still have about 25% of our cash flow that is exposed to emerging markets. And we think those emerging markets offer great growth opportunities for us over time. So we think it's appropriate to have some exposure, but we still think 25% is probably a little high. So we're allocating more capital towards the developed markets.
And that's not trying to message we're going to sell stuff. That's just saying that we're going to invest more in developed markets. So as those grow over time, the emerging markets will become a smaller percentage of the portfolio over time. But in terms of where we allocate capital, we've worked really hard over the last 18 months or 2 years to get a lot of capital flexibility. After we have purchased Telxius and CoreSite, we were over our target leverage range, and we had to commit to get down to -- under our target leverage range.
Of 5.0000?
5.000. And so we took some tough decisions last year to get there. We cut back on our internal CapEx programs. We paused our dividend, which was a very tough decision to make, paused the growth in our dividend for a year. We made a number of moves in terms of terming out debt on our balance sheet to really get down to with flexibility there. And the reason we wanted to do that is to make sure, especially in kind of uncertain times, that we can look at every incremental dollar of investable cash and allocate it on kind of the 5 uses that we see: so we have M&A, our internal CapEx program, further delevering, stock buybacks and dividend payments. And the way we think about those is we need to create the most long-term shareholder value. We're not looking to drive short-term catalyst. We're looking to drive long-term shareholder value.
So Rod and I are very much in agreement that's a math equation. And we look at each opportunity when it comes in and they compete against each other. So if you see us buy towers, we think it's because they're going to give us a better return than buying our stock. If you see us incrementally invest in CapEx internally, it's because we think it's better than buying any M&A that's out there. And that's a really dynamic opportunity to allocate capital because we don't have a strategic imperative. We've gotten the scale we need in the markets that we're in. And that's been something we worked really hard to get to so that we can create the most value.
So if you think about the M&A equation out there, a lot of times there's books available in Europe. How do you think about kind of price, growth rates and quality of assets, terms and conditions? But how do you think about M&A opportunities around the world that might be interesting or might not be as interesting in the current environment?
Sure. Well, the first lens is our strategic imperative is to invest in developed markets. So that's where we're going to be focused. I've got M&A teams who like to buy stuff, so you're going to see them involved in every process because...
You look at every book?
You look at everything, right? There's nothing that's come across mine or Rod's desk of any scale that's compelling right now. And it is, part of it, just looking at where it is, what the price is and what the terms and conditions are and how constructive the market is. And so we get a lot of questions about Europe because there are things being sold in Europe. And you've got to break Europe apart. It's not one megalith. Each individual market has its own telecom industry, and there's going to be different growth aspects that you have to evaluate there.
And so we feel really good about the portfolio that we bought that's predominantly Spain and Germany. We have a small presence in France. And we were very patient. We've passed up a lot of deals. And so as we're looking at the stuff that's coming available, some of those deals are recycled. So we didn't buy them the first time. So we don't want to buy them the second time. And some of those deals are just in markets that we don't think is constructive for the long term and some of them don't in terms and conditions. I'm hoping that changes. I hope that we do find opportunities to further increase our scale in the right place at the right time at the right price. But it's still got to be better than buying our stock, and that's kind of hard to do these days. So that's really how we think about it.
I think people in the audience like hearing that, too. It's like there's opportunities here for your own stock. You're also a data center company. Let's touch on that for a second and then we'll come back to the tower side. About 3.5 years ago, you bought CoreSite, so it's not new since last year. But some of the valuations have been new. Data centers have been on a tear, AI probably helping with some of that, pricing power helping this. Walk a little bit through data centers ballpark 10% or so probably of you guys?
Well, it's a little bit less than that. It's high single digits in terms of our overall portfolio. So when we bought CoreSite, the strategic rationale behind that was that we see that -- we're always trying to look at where the puck is going. Let's get to where the puck's going. And we think that edge data centers will eventually be something that drives activity on towers. And we were starting to work with our innovation team and some of the ecosystem partners on that. We were trying to figure out what does this look like and what creates value here.
So we dropped a couple of shelters on sites, took cable back to the data center, talked to partners about what you need. And what we realized was you can't just drop a shelter on a tower. You've actually got to connect that to an ecosystem of partners that's going to feed that use case. And when we were trying to work with data center companies, including CoreSite, we weren't getting very far with that. And what we realized is there's going to be a value transfer for connection to the ecosystem.
So we said, "Well, if we're going to have a right to win in this space, eventually, we're going to have to control that interconnection ecosystem. Now we didn't buy CoreSite with a big bet on that. When we valued that acquisition, we did the underwriting just based on the core business and said, "Is it worth what we're going to have to pay for it? Can we grow it? Will it be accretive to our business?" And the answer was yes. So there's not $0.01 of revenue in the underwriting for edge. So I look at it as like a free option on the edge for us to be the person who has the right to win there.
In the meantime, that asset has performed phenomenally. AI wasn't really a thing. Machine learning was, but generative AI didn't exist. And so we've had 2 consecutive years of record sales. We've also had more pricing power because of the supply and demand dynamic in all those markets. And we're able to still curate the customer mix that we did before to feed the ecosystem that gives us a competitive moat, low churn, high mark-to-market. So that business is performing phenomenally well.
So I do get asked, "Why don't you sell it?" And the answer is, I'm looking at long-term value creation. I still believe the edge is going to evolve. It's a little bit later than we thought. We thought it was going to be a '26 and '27 event. It's not. It's going to be a little bit later. But everything that we're working on that people are talking to are still working on it. They just slowed the time line a bit. So I still think that there's a lot of value creation to be had there.
In the meantime, our mandate is to grow that business as much as it possibly can, increase the value there. And as long as we're maximizing the value of that asset, that's what our shareholders should care about. And at some point, if the edge doesn't materialize, and I'm not going to put a time limit on myself, but if we're looking out and we say, "You know what, this isn't going the way we thought it would," then as portfolio managers, we have to ask ourselves, is it -- does it still make sense to be part of us?
In the meantime, we're going to create a ton of value by growing that business and feeding it. And I've mentioned flexibility before. When we set up our private capital structure on the core side, one of the reasons for doing that was to give us flexibility there. So if CoreSite can grow as fast as it needs to grow, then we can choose to invest American Tower capital or we could ask our private capital partners to put some in that. And frankly, we did that in Q1 with a separate JV for DE3. That's us taking advantage of that capital flexibility that we built into the model.
So I feel great about the asset, how it's performing. I think it's way outstripping what I thought it was going to because of AI, but it still would have -- we still would have hit the business case without AI. And then it gives us a real option to be the player that gets to win at the edge when that evolves over time.
And it's a U.S.-only strategy?
It's a U.S.-only strategy. The edge is going to develop here first. The business model will develop here first. If we prove that out and make money, we'll figure out if it goes somewhere else or not. But for now, it's really focused on how do we maximize the value in the U.S.
Let's come back to the U.S. on the tower side. Connect (X), the WIA industry association had their conference a couple of weeks ago in Chicago. A lot of private tower companies there. They were very bullish on U.S. leasing, that they're seeing not just green shoots that we were talking about a year ago, but they're seeing really strong applications, dollar terms. Walk us through what you're seeing. And one of the tones at that Connect (X) meeting was really a lot of new colocations versus amendment. So help us understand in the room why that might be important.
Well, I'm glad that everybody else is finally starting to get on the wagon here. We've been talking about this for 2 years. We saw an inflection last year, where we saw the pause that everyone talked about ending and...
A pause in the growth.
A pause in the growth of the development of new networks. And then we've had 5 sequential quarters of increasing applications coming in. So this is nothing new to us. We saw this coming, we knew what was happening and we've seen it over time.
I think when you think about some of those private guys, they have very small portfolios with very low tenancy. So they're going to see a higher percentage of their contributions from new leases. And some of those folks have portfolio that you can't monetize the amendments on anyway, so we're probably not going to talk about those.
If you look at our portfolio, what we've said publicly is on the 3 major carriers, one of them has deployed mid-band 5G on about 85% of the sites, one's closer to 70% and one's a little bit under half. So that implies there's still a long runway of activity to get to that high 90s percentage of mid-band 5G that we expect to be seen over time. So we think there's a lot of pipeline there.
We are seeing more new colocations, and that comes in really 3 flavors. Some of it is normal fill-in. When you build in the first phase of a network and a new technology with a new spectrum band, you're going to have holes. It's just natural. So you got to fill those in, and that usually comes in new sites.
The second area that we see it is people are painting the map a little bit more. There's some regulatory requirements on some carriers, some are doing it for strategic reasons, but you're seeing people push out into areas they weren't in before. So we're seeing some activity there.
The third area, which I'm really excited about, is we're starting to see densification activity. Now the early phase that we see of activity is -- before applications, before services come in, is information requests. And they say, "Hey, I'm looking at this area. What heights are available on your towers? What's the structural capacity? Are there any barriers on zoning or landlords?" And we're getting a lot more of that tied to planning for densification. And that's exactly what we thought would happen at this phase in the 5G build-out. So we're excited about the activity levels that are out there. For us, it's been a steady ramp over 5 quarters. We think we're getting to a good kind of steady-state level on it. We're seeing a little bit more in terms of the colocation mix. But we still have a lot of amendments to do. So I'm not expecting a big flip or anything like that.
Okay. One of the more negative things in the news just really the last few days has been DISH.
I haven't heard that.
No. So you have the big 3 wireless carriers: AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile. We have the big 3 public tower stocks: American Tower, Crown and SBAC, and some large privates and smaller privates. DISH is a very distant, to be blunt, fourth operator in the wireless world. They stopped making interest payment on Friday. They announced another one Monday they were not going to make an interest payment. Walk us through what -- how you protect yourself against what might happen to DISH and what kind of the range of outcomes are.
So I don't like to talk about individual customers, but [ I'll allow ] in this case a little bit because it is such an issue. When I think about DISH as a customer, I think about it -- I'm not thinking about it from trying to invest in our stock. I'm thinking about it from a vendor perspective.
Right. Are you going to get paid...
Am I going to get paid? Is the check going to clear? And they need the network they built to protect the spectrum, which is a hugely valuable asset for them. So I expect them to do everything they can to keep the network running to keep the spectrum. So I expect to get paid. And when I look at their balance sheet and I look at the actions they've taken, I expect to get paid.
There's a lot of speculation about them -- out there about them selling spectrum and things like that. If they sell spectrum they're not using, that gives them more cash to pay me. They're not using it on my sites anyway. Maybe somebody else would deploy it and I can monetize it. When you think about how you protect yourself -- I'm a lawyer. I don't know if I mentioned that, but I always try to make sure that we're very careful in our contracting. There's certain things you can't protect against like bankruptcies and things like that. And so that is what it may be.
But I'm not losing a lot of sleep on that, right? Because I expect to get paid. When you think about our growth, there's a component of DISH to our growth. But the only thing we've incorporated into our growth algorithm for our kind of guidance we gave for multiyears is the contractually committed minimums under the contract. So I'm not banking on anything more from that.
I do expect to get paid. If something happened, I can size the exposure for you. So DISH represents about 2% of our global revenues, about 4% of our U.S. revenues. So in a worst-case scenario, that's the exposure. I don't anticipate the worst case happening. I expect to continue to get paid, and I think that's how this is going to play out.
And your contract term probably has a lot of years left on it?
We haven't been -- we haven't disclosed exactly what that is, but we're okay for a while.
Typically, master lease agreements would be at least 5, 7 or 10 years, and they're somewhat into a process.
Generally speaking.
Yes. Okay. One of the other questions we get a lot, it up yesterday in one of our meetings that, hey, how come the rating agencies don't appreciate that towers are a really good model is because there's concern from people outside of the world -- outside of the wireless world of what is this whole satellite thing? Isn't Elon Musk going to come in and just make everybody's cell phone go away and make towers go away? Help us understand -- you have an investment in ASTS. Help us understand how you view satellite's role in this ecosystem and what it means to wireless and towers?
So we bought the stake in AST to get a Board seat there to have a front-row seat to what's happening there. So if there's any threat, we would know about it. There's no threat. I'll be really clear about that. There's no threat from satellites to towers. Satellites are a great additional component to the network, and they're going to satisfy the need in places like rural Montana. I don't want to build towers in rural Montana, okay? It's going to fill the need in Sub-Saharan Africa, where we don't cover. I don't want to build towers there.
When you look at just the physics of spectrum and how much throughput you can get, even if you took every available megahertz of spectrum that exists and put on satellites, you still couldn't meet the needs for people. It would be a lot more expensive. So macro towers continue to represent the lowest-cost solution for providing the data throughput that people need.
And when you think about the densification we're talking about in the U.S., the reason they have to densify is they need to provide more throughput. So they have to reuse that spectrum. There's not enough spectrum to just add it to the existing towers and get there. They have to split that spectrum among more cell sites. You have the same phenomenon with satellites. So it's a good complement to the network. It's going to help my customers give their customers better service. I think it's probably going to create monetization opportunities for our customers and others in the ecosystem. I think it's a good thing. But who knows, it might even give us some upside because you might be able to see where there's data intensity from a satellite that says, "Hey, go put a tower here. We didn't think we needed one." But it's no threat.
Okay. Something else had changed from the last time we were here at Nareit, tariffs, macroeconomic, geopolitical, all that stuff.
Yes.
Talk us through how you view what's happening in the broader scheme, what it means specifically for American Tower.
For me, it just spells a lot of uncertainty. And that's really one of the reasons that we focused on flexibility. It's one of the reasons that we focused on making sure we have a fortress balance sheet, that we have the optionality. We got our floating rate debt percentage down to low single digits. So we're kind of in a good position no matter what happens.
The tariffs don't directly impact us in a significant way. I mean we buy some things that might have tariffs on generators, things like that, but that's a small portion of our overall capital plan. And -- so right now, we're not seeing near-term impacts for that. Longer term, I think it depends on how it affects our customers. I need healthy customers. If what they buy costs more, there could be some negative impacts there, but we don't know how that's going to play out over time.
A lot of the impact of the tariffs and the macro uncertainty has to do with our international business and how that affects the FX rates. And quite frankly, when the dollar devalues, which is happening -- well, I haven't looked today, but yesterday, it was still devaluing, that actually makes the FX a tailwind instead of a headwind. So that actually helps in the translation back. So there's not a huge impact on the core business. And one of the reasons we started talking about the core business, in our last earnings call, we put a slide in there kind of laying that out, is to help people understand the health of the actual underlying business and what are the -- is the variability coming from FX and interest rates and things like that. And really, the biggest impact for us is FX and interest rates, a little bit on the cost structure, but it's manageable. And other than that, it's how it affects my customers.
Great. And for people in the audience, we hear steel tariffs. You're probably not building a lot in the United States.
We're not building a lot in the United States, and it makes what I've got more valuable because you can't build another one.
Right. It makes the competing concept even tougher model to...
Exactly. Again, it's not a big mover for us because of the scale that we have. And most of the CapEx that we're doing is smaller augmentations on those existing towers.
Right. One thing that seems to continue is that private multiples, kind of an NAV concept, private multiples staying higher, it feels like low, mid, high 30s, even 40s, depending on the towers and terms and conditions. But the publics are in the 20s. Why is there a dichotomy of that?
I think there's a few reasons for that. I think one is, I think that some of the private capital values the model and looks at the long-term on it. So they're not looking at a short-term interest rate, they're not looking at short-term care dynamics and things like that. They're looking at what's that going to grow over time. So I do think that there is an undervaluation in the public market because of the macroeconomic conditions.
I also think that there's a little bit of irrational exuberance sometimes in the private markets. Not every tower is created equal. And the growth factor on that tower depends on a number of things. How desirable is the location? What are the underlying terms and conditions with the anchor, meaning can you monetize the amendments with the anchor tenant, what's your escalator, things like that. And I think that sometimes private capital looks at public tower companies and just assumes that everything is going to grow in line. It's a little bit harder to run a tower company than people realize. So I do think there's some irrational exuberance there as well.
And we're seeing a little bit of moderation in some of that. We've seen a couple of portfolios that are not trading for what people thought they were going to, might have gotten pulled, might have fallen through on that. So my hope is that irrational exuberance tamps down, creates more opportunities for us. And we'll be there to take advantage of it. But the way we underwrite any acquisition is with a business plan per tower. Even when we bought -- or subleased 11,500 towers a few years ago, I had 11,500 sales plans created for those, so we would have an idea about what that's going to look like. And I think that's the kind of discipline you have to have and not overpay.
You touched on the beginning that you held your dividend flat, no growth. Now we're seeing growth again this year. Walk us through what people should think of as the dividend growth part of the story.
Sure. So as a real estate investment trust, we're required to dividend out 90% of our taxable income. We believe that the most tax-efficient way to do it is to pay out 100% of our taxable income. So subject to Board approval, that's kind of our intent to do that.
From the QRS side?
Yes. And so if you think about our AFFO per share growth, that should roughly align with our taxable income growth. So you can expect, all things being equal, for us to have a dividend growth rate that kind of mirrors that AFFO per share growth rate. Now there's some variability you can have with throwbacks and pull-forwards and things like that. And there are some things that might not affect it. Like when we sold India, that was dilutive on an AFFO per share basis, but it wasn't part of the REIT so it didn't affect the taxable income. So there's a little bit of a disconnect. But broadly speaking, you should expect our dividend to grow in line with our AFFO per share, subject to Board approval.
And obviously, interest rates play into that, FX rates play into that. But if we think about the business model of a tower company with the mix of assets that you have and data center assets that you have, what should people think of as kind of a targeted range of what AFFO per share might grow over a long time?
Yes. So the algorithm that we've laid out for folks says that our business model supports mid- to high single-digit growth, even absorbing some impact from FX and interest rates. Now you've got to make some assumptions in terms of what the interest rates and dividends and FX are going to be.
We put a chart in that earnings. I'll just kind of walk through the 2025 numbers because I think that's instructive about how to think about the longer term. So if you look at that chart, and I'll just do it from memory here, our U.S. business on an organic growth basis is growing at about 4.3% this year, organic tenant billings growth, plus we have a little bit of increase from services business. That translated into what we call a core growth rate of about 6% of additional growth.
Our emerging markets segments, our international segments contributed about 2% of growth on an FX-neutral basis. And the CoreSite is growing faster, but it's a smaller piece. So it contributed about 0.5%. So you add all that up, and the core business is growing at about 8.5%.
Now FX was pretty significantly negative for us this year. In particular, Brazil had a pretty big devaluation last year. So that cost us about 2.7% of growth this year. And then we had interest rate headwinds because we were refinancing very low interest rate debt at about 1.7% this year. So this year, at the midpoint of our guidance, the AFFO growth rate is about 4.4%, but the core business was in mid-8s. And we put that in there to kind of illustrate that the core business is healthy. We're writing a lot of new business. We're organically growing that business. We're working through the churn in various markets. And it's -- we're getting to that place where it supports that high growth. But you have to make your own assumptions about what FX is going to do over time and interest rates.
Now we're coupling that growth. I do want to mention this. We've been very disciplined about seeking cost savings. Over the past 2 years, we were able to get net reductions in SG&A. And last year, it was about $35 million. This year at the midpoint of our guidance is an incremental $20 million. And that's net reductions. That's absorbing the inflation, cost of raises, et cetera. We're doing that in a sustainable fashion. That's really as we're -- we've done some automation, kind of reshaping our workforce in line with our new strategic priorities, et cetera. And earlier this year, I named Bud Noel as the COO of the company to focus on the rest of our cost structure with the goal of bending down the growth rate of the rest of the direct cost curve to always keep that growing lower than our revenue growth base to keep that margin expansion on the tower side. So when you kind of couple that together, we think that's very supportive of a sustainable mid- to high single-digit growth rate over time.
Great. 30 seconds, what do you want to close with? Anything so you want to make sure we hit? 30 seconds, you got it.
Yes. I would just reiterate that towers are a great investment for now and the future. As long as people keep using their cell phones and mobile demand keeps increasing, people need to put more stuff on towers. And so 5G will continue to be deployed across the globe. You will get densification, you will get new use cases. And 6G is just around the corner. Specs -- the standards are going to come out in 2029. We'll be deploying shortly after that. So this cycle through every G continues to build, and we continue to be -- see a long runway of opportunity ahead.
Steve, TMC, Vondran says it is the BBE, best business ever.
It is the best business ever, Ric.
Thanks. Appreciate it.
Thanks.
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American Tower — Nareit REITweek: 2025 Investor Conference
American Tower — Nareit REITweek: 2025 Investor Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Portfolio-Management: Verkauf Indien reduziert Volatilität; Ziel: geringere Emerging-Markets-Exposition zugunsten entwickelter Märkte.
- Kapitalallokation: Priorität für langfristigen Shareholder Value über kurzfristige Hebel — M&A, internes CapEx, Schuldenabbau, Buybacks, Dividende im Wettbewerb.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Indien-Verkauf: Vorher ~40% AFFO-Exposition gegenüber Emerging Markets; nach Verkauf verbleiben rund 25% — Ziel: Qualität und Stabilität der Cashflows erhöhen.
- CoreSite / Rechenzentren: US-only-Strategie; Asset liefert starke Nachfrage, Preisstärke und Rekordumsätze (AI-Treiber); betrachtet als "kostenfreie Option" auf Edge.
- M&A-Disziplin: Fokus auf entwickelte Märkte; Underwriting pro Tower, wartet auf richtige Preis-/Terms-Relation (häufig besser als Aktienrückkauf sein müssen).
🔎 Neue Informationen
- Wachstums-Profile: Kerngeschäft organisch deutlich stärker (Mid‑/High‑Single‑Digit), aber FX- und Zins-Effekte drücken 2025-Midpoint‑AFFO‑Wachstum auf ~4.4% (Brasilien FX ~-2.7%, Refinanzierungen ~-1.7%).
- Kapitalflexibilität: Maßnahmen: Dividendenaussetzung/Freeze zuvor, Termingeschäfte zur Schuldenstrukturierung und Einsatz von Private‑JV‑Kapital (z.B. DE3) zur Skalierung CoreSite.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- DISH‑Risiko: Management erwartet Zahlung; DISH ~2% globaler Umsatz, ~4% US‑Umsatz; in Guidance nur vertragliche Mindestzahlungen berücksichtigt.
- 5G / Densification: Sichtbarkeit von 5 aufeinanderfolgenden Quartalen höherer Anträge; Mix verschiebt sich zu mehr New‑colocations und Planungsanfragen für Densification.
- Satelliten-Thread: Beteiligung an ASTS für Einblick; Satelliten ergänzen, bedrohen Makro‑Türme nicht — Kapazitäts-/Kostenbegrenzung hält Makro weiter relevant.
💡 Bottom Line
- Relevanz: Management verkauft selektiv (Indien), verschiebt Kapital in entwickelte Märkte, hält strikte M&A‑Disziplin und betont Bilanzstärke. Für Aktionäre: solides organisches Wachstumspotenzial, aber kurzfristig von FX und Zins‑Headwinds sowie Kunden‑Spezifika (z.B. DISH) beeinflusst.
Finanzdaten von American Tower
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 10.819 10.819 |
6 %
6 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 2.817 2.817 |
9 %
9 %
26 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 8.002 8.002 |
5 %
5 %
74 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 961 961 |
4 %
4 %
9 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 6.898 6.898 |
4 %
4 %
64 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 2.067 2.067 |
3 %
3 %
19 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 4.831 4.831 |
4 %
4 %
45 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 2.900 2.900 |
59 %
59 %
27 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
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Firmenprofil
American Tower Corp. ist ein Immobilieninvestmentfonds, der Kommunikationsimmobilien mit mehreren Mandanten besitzt, betreibt und entwickelt. Er ist in den folgenden Segmenten tätig: U.S.-Immobilien, Asien-Immobilien, Europa-Immobilien, Afrika-Immobilien, Lateinamerika-Immobilien und Dienstleistungen. Das Segment U.S. Property ist in den Vereinigten Staaten tätig. Das Segment Asien Immobilien bezieht sich auf die Geschäftstätigkeit in Indien. Das Segment Dienstleistungen bietet turmbezogene Dienstleistungen in den Vereinigten Staaten an, einschließlich des Erwerbs von Grundstücken, Dienstleistungen im Zusammenhang mit der Genehmigung von Zonen & und Dienstleistungen im Bereich der Strukturanalyse. Das Unternehmen wurde 1995 gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Boston, MA.
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| Hauptsitz | USA |
| CEO | Mr. Vondran |
| Mitarbeiter | 4.866 |
| Gegründet | 1995 |
| Webseite | www.americantower.com |


