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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 151,61 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 126,53 Mrd. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 151,61 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 132,20 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 278,06 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 126,53 Mrd. $
Enterprise Value = 278,06 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 132,20 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
AT&T Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
34 Analysten haben eine AT&T Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
34 Analysten haben eine AT&T Prognose abgegeben:
Beta AT&T Events
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AT&T — Mizuho Technology Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Join us. Before we jump into it, I'm going to turn to Pascal for a safe harbor.
Yes. Good morning, everybody. It's a pleasure to be here. Just as a reminder, some of the comments I'm going to make today are forward-looking in nature and subject to risk and uncertainty. Please refer to our website. Additionally, we are in the midst of Spectrum Auction 113, and therefore, I'm unable to comment on anything related to that.
Thank you, Pascal, and thank you for joining us. We're very excited to have you again this year.
It's a pleasure to be here.
So for those of you who don't know Pascal, as I mentioned, he is the AT&T CFO, Senior Executive VP as well, where he and his team oversee the financial strategy of their $176 billion connectivity business. Since joining AT&T in 2021, Pascal really has spearheaded the company's effort for cost transformation, simplified its balance sheet and strengthened and overseen historic levels of wireless and wireline investment, which has really led to make AT&T, I believe, one of the top annual investors in the U.S., positioned it as a leader in converged connectivity and helped the company deliver on its long-term strategy.
Wow, that's a mouthful.
But really quite impressive all you've done, especially since I sat in the analyst chair in 2020. The company has come a long way.
Maybe I'll just start off -- you recently, I think as recently as last night, reiterated your full year outlook, including plans to continue investing this year in the range of $23 billion to $24 billion through 2028. It's interesting, can you kind of frame this investing because it's worth noting that some of your peers during the same period are actually pulling back on that capital investment. And how do you view this as an attractive opportunity?
Sure thing. Maybe let's zoom out a little bit. If you look at the last decade, what we have clearly seen is a trend where the demand for bandwidth has increased significantly. And as we look ahead, we look at -- you're going to see more and more increasing workloads from AI, think about autonomous vehicles, drones, smart devices. The amount of bandwidth connectivity is going to continue to increase at just exponential rates. And that connectivity demand is going to be more so driven by uplink demand than downlink. So we are building a network, not simply for today, we are building it a network for the future. And that network is going to be AI ready for whatever workloads it produces. We understand we can't wait for everything to materialize to make that investment. We think the trends are unmistakable. They've been happening, and they continue to happen. Now as you noted, we've been investing for some time.
And -- the good news is this, as investors, you don't have to wait for that future consumption to materialize. You are getting significant growth over the next several years. We are -- consistent with our guidance, we said we expect to accelerate growth in subscribers, broadband subscribers, driven by our converged offerings. We also expect growth -- a step-up in our service revenues and our EBITDA over the next several years, and we've guided to double-digit EPS during that period, all while delivering an attractive dividend, and a buyback that basically equals the level of the dividends in terms of the dollars committed to it. So all in all, we're in a position right now where we're delivering returns to shareholders today while investing for the enormous growth we see ahead.
And I want to push on that, too, because you touched on this, the capital allocation priorities. You've been very aggressive in making progress on the balance sheet, but also pursuing strategic acquisitions. EchoStar, which I know hasn't closed yet, Lumen, fiber recently required incremental capital. Do you need to pursue additional -- like in your seat, additional M&A? Where does that fall on your kind of to-do list here? And I can't talk about the current spectrum auctions, but additional spectrum down the line, et cetera.
You take a step back, what we have -- we've been focused principally since John Stankey took over as CEO on investing for organic growth. That is where we think we have enormous opportunities. There is significant room to continue to grow. And last year, we saw an opportunity to acquire attractive spectrum from EchoStar, both mid-band and low band. And we also saw in Lumen a unique opportunity to acquire fiber assets in a location where we didn't operate in a market where wireless, we were -- we had less share than we have nationally. And those assets were acquired at a price that's comparable to our building fiber and it's underpenetrated. So providing us with enormous opportunity to continue to drive incremental returns off of the existing base of assets. As importantly, when we did the acquisition, we also acquired rights of way from both rights of way to build significantly more in that territory. And it came with build engine that also allows us to continue to build right away. We didn't have to staff -- we didn't need to start new relationships in those territories. So all those things we found attractive. So right now, we're focused on what we have in front of us. We have a lot of work to do to continue to execute and monetize the assets recently acquired, and plenty of room to run in our organic footprint. That's where we're focused. Now as you would expect, in the business that we're in, we're paid by our investors to make sure we're always looking at the market to see is there are opportunities for additional returns. And that's something we do all the time. But I wouldn't -- we don't need to do anything at this stage. We are squarely focused on executing what's in front of us.
And you mentioned a large part of the driving of the Lumen was the convergence strategy, the bundle, which, again, has really come on strong just for the industry. And I think over the last few months, you've rolled out several changes for your 5G and fiber services, including a more simplified unlimited -- your Way plans, OneConnect, build a plan, which have an underlying simplification that should resonate with customers. Can you walk us through what you're looking to achieve with this?
I mean, I believe it's that bundle, lower churn, higher ARPU, but I'm curious as to what was the logic there and the timing?
Yes. If you zoom out a bit, when you look at AT&T's wireless position, I think it's fair to characterize it as we probably tend to over-index on more premium customers, customers that have more than 2 lines, and we have the highest ARPU in the industry. All those things tell us that if we want to grow in a market that is -- that's not growing quickly, we have to attack other parts of the market, whether it be value customers, 1 or 2 line customers. And how do you do that? You become very strategic and you provide choices to customers that are attractive. So when we try to execute our plans, we're guided by 3 principles.
As you noted, simplicity, value and choice. Consumers have told us that's what they're looking for. And importantly, for us, convergence. Convergence, meaning currently, we have -- we expect to end this year with about 40 million fiber passings. Our goal is for each of those fiber passings -- for every subscriber we have to try to sell them both fiber and wireless. Why? They've told us that's what they want, and they want to be able to do that simply. And so what we're trying to do with our offerings is to really provide consumers with choice, whether they are premium customers, lower value customers. And all in all, our belief is that with the unique hand that we have, with the expanding fiber footprint, it's 40 million today going to over 60 million by 2030. We're going to be in a position as a result of those relationships to drive an outsized share take in wireless.
And where you have history with the legacy fiber, you've seen that play out, right?
Without a doubt, our customers that have both fiber and wireless are our lowest churn customers, highest lifetime value and their NPS is higher than our overall base and brand love is off the charts, all things that tell us that if we want to continue to drive customer affinity and give customers what they want, this is the winning hand.
Got it. On the wireless side, a key part of the industry has always been about device subsidy. And I'm curious your current thoughts as of how much of the industry has talked about moving away from these aggressive device subsidies and really refocusing on the network and the experience there and service. But at the same time, these device subsidies have historically been a very important point of differentiation for the industry or for players within the industry from the MNOs relative to the cable MVNOs. How do you think about that trade-off?
And kind of what gives you confidence that we're going to stay in this network-first competitive environment?
Yes. The device subsidies are really -- I view them as a way to show customers' appreciation, reward them for their loyalty and choosing us. Look, I think it's fair to say at times, we probably as an industry, have over-indexed on those. There are other ways to show loyalty, provide superior products and services, great customer service and a great value proposition. We're selling a great service, and let's lead with that.
Also, look, I think there is a lot of focus on the devices. I think one of the things that I think is lost when people are talking or that's not emphasized enough is the devices also allow us, in addition to accommodating what the consumers are looking for, it allows us to sell unique products. We have an insurance product where we ensure your device, pretty attractive revenue stream for us. Similarly, we have a product called Next Up. Your next upgrade on us if you pay an additional $10 a month. So they're all things that are available and allow us to monetize the relationships in different ways. So I think it's really important. When I look at the overall devices and our relationships with consumers, there's a budget of, of subsidy that we earmarked. And we stay within those budgets.
We manage to it. So the price of the device is only one piece of it. There are other elements of value such as the trade-in, the price plan that the customer buys in at. And we also -- on all these other ancillary revenue streams that we are able to garner from the relationship. So do we continue to try to find ways to manage device subsidy more effectively?
We do. But I think we do a pretty good job. And on balance, what we invest in there, we think we get a really attractive return.
Yes. And I would think like the more convergence permeates into the customer base, I don't want to say it becomes less important. But if my family has your fiber service and 3 wire-- I mean, I'm less focused on my kind of subsidy of a particular handset. Is that what you're seeing in some of these more mature markets?
Yes, as a general matter, but look, our view is this, we have to meet the consumer where they are. And if they want a device subsidy, we'll figure out how to do it, but in a way that not only works for them, but works for us as well.
Got it. So your Lumen, I want to talk about the integration there because that is the deal you have closed on and had for a bit. You're in really one of the largest infrastructure build-outs in the telecom, I'd say, in the broadband market. You mentioned earlier a goal of 60 million fiber locations by 2030, which does include your integration of Lumen, which you closed earlier this year. Can you talk about what made these territories particularly attractive? The rights of way, I think, is a very underappreciated point, because I think people don't think that's just easy. And so I'm curious as to how you think the integration has gone thus far and your priorities from here?
Sure. You take a step back, we acquired about 4.5 million fiber passings for about $5.8 billion. Do the math, the cost per passing is very competitive with what it takes us to build. That was one element that made it attractive.
Two, as I mentioned earlier, we've acquired rights of way. So not only did we get the existing passings, we can build out well beyond those. And we've said we plan to more than double those passings over the next 5 years. So that was an attractive element. It came with a team that was accustomed to doing business in those markets, has relationships with the different municipalities where the permitting is requested, knows how to navigate the local markets. Additionally, those assets were underpenetrated. So they were at 25% penetrated. That compares to our national average of 40%, and we said we expect to go well above that. So that was an element of value. Also, in that footprint, our wireless share is significantly less than it is nationally.
Interesting...
And to boot, they are not -- the convergence rate in those territories is considerably less than what we are seeing in our own footprint. So all those things together make this a really attractive assets. We closed in February. It's early days, but honestly, the reception in the local market has been really positive. Sales demand is really strong, much higher than it was under -- when Lumen owned the assets.
We didn't have a wireless tool, right?
That's right, and they don't have the distributions that we have in the local markets. We have retail outlets across the country, all things that allow us to really be able to hit the ground running from a distribution standpoint. With that said, look, we have to ramp up the pace at which the build team is building. They have to be able to accommodate much more installations than they've been accustomed to.
And all those were things we anticipated when we -- that there would be a ramp-up period. We're in that. But what's really encouraging is every week, the team is getting better. They're continuing to execute better and achieving the scale that we anticipated.
It is part of your longer term -- this was a critical piece in this long-term fiber bet, I would say. You know I -- we're hearing a lot about broadband these days and other players. And I'm just curious, broadly, what gives you the confidence that now is the time to double down on this fiber bet?
And I'm curious, does AI become part of that conversation, too, is that last mile of connectivity?
It really does. AI doesn't exist without our connectivity. I mean, plain and simple. And we know one thing for sure that data consumption is going to continue to go up under AI. And how do you best meet that? Our view is this fiber gives us the best ability to meet that. Why? You have symmetrical speed, highest speeds available, lowest latency. And importantly, the cost to deliver -- the unit cost to deliver bandwidth is the lowest with fiber. And it has great maintenance profile, less power consumption, all things that make it incredibly attractive. Now we know it's a long game. You don't wake up 5 years from now and say, "Oh, I want to be in the fiber business". We've been at this for a while. And we are building a network that is AI ready. There will be a lot looking to catch up and trying to figure out how to catch up as those consumption trends materialize. We're not going to be in that position. And as I said earlier, the good news is this, we're able to do all this while accelerating our growth in earnings and delivering value shareholders in the interim.
You also have another tool in your toolkit in fixed wireless. You've indicated through a lease agreement that you've deployed the large majority of the 3.45 spectrum that you will be acquiring from EchoStar in the fourth -- you agreed to acquire it, I realize it hasn't closed. How should investors think about the role fixed wireless is -- has in driving this incremental growth and really the overall broadband opportunity?
Yes. Fixed wireless is another tool in the toolkit. It's another product that we have. At the very beginning, as we -- the product was being introduced, we said we didn't anticipate it being our lead offer for broadband. Fiber is our lead offer for all the reasons I just went through.
But fixed wireless, where do we think it makes sense to use? It makes sense to use in advance of fiber coming to territory. So if you still have -- in those places where you still have legacy DSL and that you want to get customers in advance of a fiber rollout and you're planning to do so, great tool.
Two, if in places where we're not going to offer fiber, even though we have plans to be at 60 million-plus locations, there's a lot of homes that we're not going to cover with fiber. So that's an opportunity for us. Importantly, when we are selling fixed wireless in those instances, we look to do it in conjunction with wireless. It's very clear when we're looking at returns, fixed wireless only makes sense if you are using your fallow capacity. And you don't have to densify your network to provide incremental coverage and capacity. It's -- once you start to have to do that, the returns on fixed wireless go down dramatically.
Interesting ok..
And so it's really important that we are surgical in how we use it. And so outside of our traditional footprint, we try to really drive convergence. And those markets also, typically, we are underpenetrated in wireless. So it allows us to increase our share of wireless in those markets.
Got it.
It's a really good tool for small and some medium-sized businesses. Those with multiple locations, where you may have fiber in one, but may not be able to cover them with fiber in another. So you're able to drive that. And the consumption trends for smaller businesses are not as significant as consumers. So all those things factor into how we look at it. It's an important tool in our toolkit. It's one that we think for the right customer, it's the right solution.
Sure.
But I wouldn't anticipate us to be -- to have to focus on those relationships to the same extent as you see some of our peers.
Got it. And with the -- the worry always with fixed wireless has been a spectrum will be tapped out. But with what you've received, or will receive, or leasing actually right now from EchoStar, that worry is not.
Well, it's not today, but at some point, you're going to have to pay the [ piper ]. That's why we're being much more surgical than others about it.
Got it.
I mean, look, there's a common theme here. We are playing a long game. We're not trying to build a company for today. We're building it for tomorrow. And it's really important -- we've been in this business 150 years. We're going to be in it more than that in the future. So I want to make sure that we are looking at this, and we are managing this for the long term. And that's been John's message. We're going to build this to last.
And between the fixed wireless and your fiber, I believe you said in the release last night that year-over-year, this fiber growth will be...
Yes. Advanced home Internet is the category that we call the combination of either fiber or fixed wireless broadband. We expect growth in customer additions to accelerate...
Year-over-year.
Year-over-year relative to what we saw in the first quarter.
So the investments are paying off...
There's no doubt like there's nothing that we've seen that would suggest that these are not the best investments for our investors long term. And so we're really bullish about the future here.
I want to shift to business. Your Advanced Connectivity business services were essentially stable year-over-year. People have always been negative on this for the group in general, but it's important to note that was the first time during the first quarter where you saw that stability in a long time, I believe. And what is -- which to me is an important milestone. What is driving that stabilization? And because people used to feel like that was like the melting ice cube and that those were just going to continue to decline, but here we go, it's stable.
Yes. Look, I'm incredibly proud of our team and business. We said this a couple of years ago that we expect, as you got through the next several years that the business would stabilize and begin to grow. In fact, we have given guidance that we expect our advanced connectivity business services revenues to grow low single digit in the next several years?
Oh, interesting..
There are several things that are happening there. One, as we build out more fiber locations and as we penetrate the existing fiber base, we're seeing an acceleration in growth in business fiber revenues, both shared and dedicated.
Two, we're also seeing fixed wireless, as we roll it out, our fixed wireless business product is less than 2 years old. And so as we are rolling it out to small and medium-sized business, we're seeing really good uptick, consistent with our theory of the case. And those 2 things, coupled with value-added services that we provide to businesses will -- are more than offsetting some transitional products like VPN -- and all told, we're at the point of stabilization, and we expect to grow low single digits over the next 3 years.
And I'm old enough to remember when it used to be called like butts and seats. The more butts and seats in businesses, the more growth we'll have. But do you feel like you've aligned the sales force in a way to kind of accommodate this new normal that you're seeing from the businesses and their needs?
Sure. Look, the business market is incredibly complex. The way you sell upmarket is very different than the way you sell small and medium-sized businesses. In medium-sized businesses, in particular, there's a -- you have to rely on distribution relationships to help drive those. So all things that we're working to make sure we have aligned. We have the right distribution for the right products. lower market, our retail channel is quite effective at driving that. In upper market, it is the traditional sales force that is really working with customers to really satisfy their needs.
Got it. I'm going to shift to 2 questions, which some might call the elephant in the room because we're a big week with a big IPO coming on Friday,
Yes, which one?
Exactly. And you know there is a lot of water cooler chit chat about satellites role and in the broadband industry. And I guess, how do you think of that evolving broadband competitive landscape with satellites, birds in the sky?
And how do you feel you're positioned? We've talked a lot about the fiber, and I totally understand that point, but there is others talking about how they're going to chip away into this broadband market. How do you think about this competition?
You look at today between broadband, -- between fiber, cable, fixed wireless and the wireless infrastructure that exists in the U.S., probably that covers 99% of the U.S. population. But there is a 1% population that's not covered today in very rural areas. And I think satellite is a great solution for that. The cost to deploy traditional infrastructure in those areas is prohibitive.
So -- but within urban and suburban areas, it's really the infrastructure that is in place is better. It is -- the cost per bit to deliver is cheaper. And those markets are competitive with well-established competitors. So look, anything is possible. But look, there is -- we think we provide great solutions at a really attractive price in urban, suburban areas, and that's where our focus is. Over time, we would expect to be able to partner with different satellite providers to help bridge the coverage where, where we don't have infrastructure. And ideally, we'd like the coverage to be seamless such that if somebody drives into a rural area from a suburban area that they are able to have continuous coverage because we've worked with the satellite providers to ensure the seamless transfer of their connectivity, no different than when you travel internationally.
And you get moved to the other carrier. And you'd partner -- I mean, the big 3 have come out together and said that they'd be willing to work together in that. Is that correct?
Yes, that is. Here is -- we all see the need to provide seamless connection to our consumers at an attractive price. And by coming together, here's what we're able to do. We're able to agree on a set of standards and principles that we're going to use to deliver that service. Two, it allows us to pool scarce spectrum resources together. And oftentimes, they are complementary resources. So it allows more complete coverage. And then finally, it also allows us to share in the infrastructure cost of delivering that satellite connectivity. So altogether, those things are made this pretty compelling for us. And importantly, I think the consumer wins here. By being in a position to come together to solve these pain points, we're able to deliver the value to the consumer at an attractive price.
And I realize you can't talk about the spectrum auction, but the fact is you've spent billions of dollars, you and your peers on spectrum of mid-band spectrum, which is tough to come by. And if physics still matter, does that also come to play with satellites?
Yes. there will be unique spectrum necessary to be able to connect direct to device. And -- so the spectrums that collectively we have allow us to do that better than each one of us trying to do that.
Absolutely. Final question. If you're sitting in the same seat, maybe this seat, 3 years from now, I think a bigger question, what would success for AT&T look like? And what do you see as the biggest variable to get from here to there?
Here is the good news. It's -- our destiny is within our control. We don't need to acquire any other assets. We just need to execute on the assets that we have and optimize those assets. We are currently in the midst of several transformation, whether it is getting out of copper, modernizing our wireless network, expanding our broadband footprint significantly -- you fast forward the next several years, those things all come to an end.
And there's significant duplicate infrastructure today that is supporting those different initiatives. You get to the other side of that. That infrastructure goes away. You have a much more modern, efficient network, both broadband and wireless. You're able to deliver better connectivity than anybody else at the most efficient cost structure. It is going to be a business that is really attractive margins, high, high operating leverage and very strong cash flows. And all that will accrue to our shareholders.
Terrific. And I think AI is going to be a major part of the conversation from there.
Yes. We are going to have an AI ready network and everybody is going to be scrambling to catch up.
Pascal, thank you. Thank you to everyone in the audience.
Thank you, for having me.
Thank you so much.
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AT&T — Mizuho Technology Conference 2026
AT&T — Mizuho Technology Conference 2026
AT&T setzt weiter auf hohe Investitionen in Glasfaser und 5G, fokussiert auf Konvergenz, organisches Wachstum und stabile Kapitalrückführung.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kapitalplan: Bestätigung hoher Investitionen: $23–24 Mrd. Jahres-Capex (Fortführung bis 2028) zur Vorbereitung auf steigende Bandbreitenbedarfe.
- Strategie: Fokus auf organisches Wachstum durch Ausbau von Fiber-Passings, Konvergenz von Festnetz und Mobilfunk sowie selektive M&A.
- Shareholder: Dividende bleibt attraktiv, Aktienrückkäufe sollen in Dollarbetrag in etwa Dividendenhöhe entsprechen.
🔥 Strategische Highlights
- Fiber-Ausbau: Ziel ~40 Mio. Fiber-Passings Ende Jahr, >60 Mio. bis 2030; Lumen-Deal (≈4,5 Mio. Passings für $5,8 Mrd.) als beschleunigender Baustein.
- Konvergenz: Bündelangebote (Fiber+Wireless) sollen Churn senken, ARPU (durchschnittlicher Umsatz je Kunde) erhöhen und Kundenbindung stärken.
- Produktmix: Fixed Wireless als ergänzendes Produkt vor bzw. statt Fiber in bestimmten Gebieten; Device-Subsidies werden budgetiert und zielgerichtet gesteuert.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Integration: Lumen-Regionen zeigen laut Management stärkere Nachfrage als zuvor; Build-Teams werden hochgefahren, erste Resonanz positiv.
- Customer Trends: Advanced Home Internet (Fiber+Fixed Wireless) soll Kundenwachstum Jahr-über-Jahr beschleunigen; Advanced Connectivity (B2B) stabilisiert sich, erwartet mittelfristig niedrig einstelligen Umsatzanstieg.
- Spectrum/Partnerschaft: EchoStar-Transaktion noch nicht geschlossen; AT&T betont Partnerschaften mit Satellitenanbietern für Randgebiete, aber keine Detailkommentare zur laufenden Auktion.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Device-Strategie: Wie stark device-subsidies bleiben – Management: Budgetierte Subventionen bleiben, Fokus aber stärker auf Netz/Services und Zusatzumsätzen (Versicherung, Upgrades).
- Fixed Wireless vs. Fiber: Einsatz gezielt und "surgical"—vor allem vor Fiber-Rollout oder dort, wo Fiber nicht geplant ist; Rendite sinkt bei zusätzlicher Densifizierung.
- Wettbewerb/Satellit: Satelliten sinnvoll für sehr ländliche Gebiete; in urbanen/suburbanen Märkten bleibt Fiber/Kabel kosteneffizienter; Kooperationen mit Satellitenanbietern geplant.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: AT&T fährt eine klare Langfristwette auf Glasfaser- und 5G-Netze, liefert gleichzeitig Cash-Returns; Wert hängt an der Execution der Build-Outs, Integration von Lumen und Kontrolle der Spectrum-/Gerätekosten.
AT&T — J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. I'm Sebastiano Petti, and I cover the telecom, cable and satellite space for JPMorgan. I want to welcome John Stankey, Chairman and CEO of AT&T. John, thank you for joining us today.
Good morning. It's good to be with all of you. Before you get on to your next question, can I just remind everybody we're in the quiet period for the FCC spectrum auction and also offer our safe harbor statement that some of the things I'm going to talk about today are forward-looking in nature and subject to risks and uncertainties. We may or may not update those prognostications, and if you want all kinds of transparent filings, you can go to the AT&T Investor Relations website.
Great. With that out of the way, so John, your long-term guidance includes expectations for EBITDA growth to accelerate to 5% plus in 2028. Can you start by walking us through your key priorities and areas of focus for you and your management team?
Sure. Look, coming out of first quarter, I think you saw that what we've put together in terms of investment in the business to build a structural advantage to drive the growth of the business is, in fact, coming to pass, and we walked out with what I thought was a directionally correct first quarter for what we're ultimately going to do that you just alluded to, saw our best broadband -- advanced broadband connectivity net additions that we've had in the first quarter, so that's accelerating. And margins were really strong, improved, held together as that growth came in.
So I look at the fundamentals of the business, we're confident that we said, look, our guidance is sound. You should expect the step-ups and the accelerations in EBITDA growth, and you should expect cash flow improvement as we move into the second quarter, consistent with what we put out there, reaffirmed all that.
And now you think about what that strategy was all about, which is increasing the footprint of which we can grow on. We've never had a year that we're going to have this year where we add 7 million passings of new fiber opportunity into our portfolio. And that is a foundation of where some of that growth comes from. In addition to that, a combination of the acquisition of the new spectrum that we picked up from EchoStar as well as what we've been doing to modernize the wireless network opens up additional footprint for us to sell converged in places where we may not have built fiber at this juncture.
And so those two things together give us this foundation and a base to sell into, which is the strength of that growth. It's going to deliver that accelerating dynamic that we just talked about of getting ourselves up to that 5% level. And we feel really good about it. All the things we're doing to increase the size of the build engine and do the things we need to do to make sure that, that footprint comes at a clip at about 5 million homes a year as we get out past next year, that's another part of that equation. Couple that with what we're doing on the cost side and the discipline we're putting around how we're restructuring the business, and I feel really good about our ability to generate the cash and the EBITDA growth.
And if you kind of step back and think about what this business looks like as we exit this decade, it is a metropolitan fiber business with a top-class national wireless footprint. And if I were thinking about going in the next dawn of AI and what's required, that's exactly the asset base I'd want.
And so pivoting a bit here. Last week, you announced a direct-to-device JV. Can you discuss -- we've heard from some of your peers already, but would love to hear your thoughts on why this makes sense for AT&T? And more broadly, how do you see LEO-based satellite services factoring into the connectivity market across both wireless and...
Whatever they said. There's got to be some benefit to going into [ the third, ] right? No, look, first of all, the path that we've been on is still the path. We view satellite as very much a great complement to the existing products and services that we offer. We've been building scaled quality networks that work in the home and work on the go for many, many decades and investing over a long period of time to make that happen. And to my earlier point, I think we've got a set of assets that are structurally advantaged over time in how you handle networking and network loads.
And the next natural thing to do for a customer is to make sure that they don't drop off of networks, they don't go some place where they can't get a text message or make a phone call. And so satellite is a great complement to the infrastructure that we've been building and the services that customers have gotten to know us for. And by bringing that into the portfolio is a natural extension of that relationship where a customer doesn't have to think about, do I need some other relationship or do I need to buy from multiple providers, I believe, is the natural progression of convergence and where things are going to go.
So that hasn't changed. I would also tell you that the path we've been on, we're very comfortable with. The path we've been on, given how the technology is maturing, is to make sure we can get the technology to work well on a direct-to-device basis so that customers can use it in a way they're accustomed to using it. And there's nothing different about a call that might have to complete over a satellite versus what they would do during the other 99.5% of the time they're using the network.
And we've had a great relationship with AST SpaceMobile. The technology and the approach that they're using is unique for direct-to-device. And I think it's going to be a great path for the first product that comes out that is effectively a seamless and straightforward product for a consumer to use that extends the network. And we're going to continue on that path, and the JV will take some time to mature and ultimately come up to operating speed. We're still going to be pushing ahead to bring that product out to market to ensure our customers get access to it. And we're really excited about what the second half of this year holds as a result of it.
Now why do the JV? Well, as we've gone through this and we've learned about things, I think all three of us kind of stepped back and said, look, there are some things that need to be fixed here. It doesn't make sense for all of us to be lobbying for different priorities on the handset deck for spectrum capabilities. And if we get bifurcation on that that's not going to be good for any of us. It doesn't make sense that you have IP that you've developed that allows applications to run more effectively in these heterogeneous networks that have to be integrated. We've got a little bit, you've got a little bit, if we kind of get together into the software space and start putting out more standards around that, things can operate more effectively.
There's a real good thing from a consumer perspective because to make these applications and the services work properly, spectrum is really necessary, frankly, a full portfolio of spectrum, both low-band and mid-band. Low-band spectrum is pretty scarce. If we did something together, we can get a service out there that makes more sense, that's available in more places, that works better. It will be better when it's paired with mid-band spectrum. We can engineer it better in that way. We can go and we can collectively figure out how that scarce licensed spectrum can be used most effectively with high utilization by aggregating our traffic.
And one of the fundamental things you want the JV to do is to make sure that there's a robust wholesale market in satellite. That means multiple constellations to buy from. And at the end of the day, that's a good thing because that means capacity will be out there that ultimately can be delivered to customers. It means a robust wholesale structure. We'll keep pricing in check, so there isn't a bottleneck of any particular single provider that can dictate what that pricing is, and that ultimately benefits the consumer because the product and service becomes more widely available.
And then finally, there's infrastructure that has to be built. And given that this is a small percentage of total traffic on a network, it is a very small percentage of total traffic on a network, building ground station infrastructure 3 times over, having to have different infrastructure for Satellite Provider A versus Satellite Provider B that doesn't make any sense, and the JV can be a very efficient way to go about building that ground station infrastructure, building it once and having a set of standards that all players work into that allow for delivery of that traffic into separate operating mobile cores. And that's really the foundation that...
Well, glad you answered that for us. Any...
I'm sure it's the same thing everybody else said.
Pretty similar.
Pretty similar. Good.
Any update in terms of timing, definitive agreement? I mean are we talking maybe inside of '26 or...
The definitive agreement will be pretty straightforward from my point of view because we have a very -- to get three of us together and do this in the way we wanted to do, we have a very definitive term sheet that we put together. So I think all the hard issues have been worked through to get to the term sheet, and I don't expect the definitive agreement is going to be a problem. We're all highly motivated, especially given there's dynamics in the spectrum market that need to be responded to and that JV needs to be an entity in which to do that with. So I don't worry about the definitive agreement coming together.
The regulatory process remains to be seen. It's going to require approval. It's too early to tell after we file as to whether or not we'll be in the second request land with the DOJ. I expect that will probably be the case. And after we get that, probably have a better prognostication of what the timing of a close might be.
Understood. Okay. And so now pivoting to -- as I describe the yield on the network and your updated go-to-market strategy, there's been some debate around AT&T's new go-to-market approach, particularly the strategy to target underpenetrated segments, which can dilute your postpaid phone ARPU. So while I agree that improving the yield on the network makes sense given some of your outsized investments and the lower penetration rates in some of these cohorts relative to competitors, some investors struggle with the trade-off. So why is this the right strategy for AT&T? And how does your asset mix and convergence strategy position you for success?
Yes. It's interesting because I don't struggle with the notion that the most profitable and best-returning networks are ones that are full. And I would tell you that from the dawn of time in this industry, when you look at the better performing assets, there's always been a mix of traffic on them. There's been a percentage of foundation that was wholesale. There's a percentage of foundation that's high value, highly lucrative. There's always some stuff that's a little more stripped down and sits in the middle. And I think our approach is no different than what historically that's been. And I believe one of the things that probably we haven't managed the business as effectively as we should over a period of years is we are probably a little bit light in the lower segment of the markets that are a little more price sensitive and value driven.
There are still great customers. There's still customers that return. And the way I think about it is you shouldn't over-rotate on an individual price that's being charged for an individual product in the market. What we should think about is what's the value of the overall relationship, especially in a converged market. And sometimes to establish that relationship with the customer and allow them to grow over time, you do certain things to attract them in and then, like any customer, their circumstances change or the value of what you're selling them is perceived to be better or you innovate on the product that you add more capabilities in. And as a result of that, they're willing to pay you more. And just because an entry level or initiation of an account comes in at a particular level doesn't mean that over time, that can't be grown into a profitable relationship. And the worst thing I think for a brand is to get pigeonholed to saying it's only a brand that's accessible to those who hit a particular socioeconomic construct.
When you have these networks out there that are very robust and have a lot of capacity on it, in particular, the beauty of fiber is that it literally has infinite capacity. When you think about what we build to a customer's home and how we provision, there's all kinds of overcapacity in that network. And if you're smart about how you do that, you want to value discriminate and price discriminate with that value in a way that allows you to match the right offer into the right customer segment. And when I start thinking about what's out in the market today, I would use fixed wireless as an example, it's very clear that there's price points in the fixed broadband market that people want to be someplace other than buying 1 gig or 5 gig service at $75 a month. There's a lot of people who want that. It's important to them. That's what they want in their household. But there's others that want to be someplace else.
And if your marginal cost is the lowest in the market, and once you put fiber in place, that's the position you're in, why would you walk away from that circumstance? And why wouldn't you build a product that allows you to address that, and you do it in a way that allows you to have a full portfolio, selling an account to enter in at a lower price point that might be dilutive to an over-indexed premium ARPU doesn't mean that you're not driving more value into the business. It means that you're filling your network, getting better utilization and better return, and then as an investor, you only need to step back and ask yourself, are they smart enough to know how to do that and distinguish those products so that they're putting the right customer and the right value proposition and the right price point.
And I don't know, to me, that's not a huge leap of faith, Sebastiano. Because you go back and you look at the history of this business over time and how we manage the subscription base, it seems to me like we've done that pretty frequently. And we do that in a lot of different ways where we portray that value discretely depending on the market segment, and I think we can do that now.
Okay. Great. You made an interesting point on your last earnings call describing convergence and churn is just math and that the benefits start compounding once the customer base is large enough. When should investors expect to see these churn improvements from further growth in converged customer base? Peers seem to be equally focused on retaining customers. Do you see this as a headwind to reaching that improvement, or just competition?
Look, it is -- it's going to take time for this to work through. And if I were to maybe go back and say, at least in the wireless space, we came out of the pandemic with historically low churn levels. I don't see us returning to those levels anytime soon. But do I see the deterioration that's gone on starting to plateau and flatten and then maybe work its way down slowly. I'm more likely to see that scenario. The math is something like we know that when we converge a customer, we pick up a dramatic improvement in churn and longevity for that relationship. And so the math becomes as the footprint gets larger and you get more converged customers, then you get a higher percentage of your base influenced to that, but you are in that process of that transition occurring. And as I just spoke about, we don't hit 60 million footprint on fiber until 2030, as we get through 2030.
And so we're adding new footprint. We're penetrating that base. We're converging those customers. And the math is, as you're doing that, you're still working through a churn dynamic as the base reorients around more converged services. We think we get a preferred position when the music stops and the deck chairs have all been rearranged because of the size of the footprint, the quality of the fixed connection married with a fantastic nationwide wireless business, but you do go through that transition.
And one of the things that was also propping up churn for a long period of time is before buyout offers came into the market, there was a little bit more resiliency on the stand-alone wireless side and a lot of that's gone now given there's a lot more portability of the customer. So we went through a year of seeing that work its way into the numbers. That's one of the reasons there's been this acceleration.
Now you get to better year-over-year compares as a result of that. I think that's kind of in the market at a particular level. That's partly what will contribute maybe to a little of that plateauing. And I do believe everybody is going to be really mindful of managing their base. But when you walk into the market with a superior product and service, when you have the portfolio of offers that we're putting in place, as you've seen at the top with OneConnect coming out and the simplicity that, that brings at the top end of the market for the customer that wants to bundle everything in their house. We've got fantastic plans in the middle, and I think you'll see us be doing a little bit more in the value segment that you're going to see. I see how that portfolio hangs together on the best product set. I feel really good that we're going to be able to continue to grow and take our share. And as I said earlier, when the footprint gets bigger and we expose more places we can go introduce that superior product set, we're going to get our growth out of it.
I think a good segue there. And so just thinking about the fiber network, if cable continues to try and mitigate more broadband losses and steps up their brand marketing, do you see a meaningful change in cable competition coming out of the quarter? And I guess where do you see some of the most pressure?
Clearly, we saw Comcast run plays to work on retaining the base and that's causing us to adjust and do some things a little differently. I saw less of it from some of the other competitors. It doesn't mean they won't adjust and drive those tactics. But as I said, in the end, we have been accelerating our growth. We came off our best first quarter on advanced connectivity net adds in broadband while they were doing that. So while we saw their tactics change, we've still been able to get a fair share.
And I think the other thing that I will keep reminding everybody of if you compare our performance today versus 2 or 3 years ago, we're not living off a base transition at this juncture because we don't have a base to transition from to speak of right now. We've been shutting down a lot of our old copper infrastructure. There really isn't a base of DSL customers to harvest. We built the most attractive markets with fiber in the footprint right now first, where a lot of those folks were clustered.
And so this growth that you're seeing and the step-ups in it is coming from transition from other competitors. And we know how to do this, we'll continue to do it, and I feel really good about the value proposition in the market and don't worry about that. And I think we're also seeing signs that their wireless base is maybe going to require a little bit more maintenance at this juncture of their life cycle and whether or not they can step up to that remains to be seen. And that -- if they don't do that well, that just means more opportunity for us.
And then pivoting to fixed wireless, you stated AT&T's Internet strategy remains a fiber-first strategy. However, you've made significant investments in both wireless network modernization and more recently, the expanded spectrum capacity. So how should we think about the long-term growth trajectory of FWA? And I guess where do you see the biggest opportunity in that product?
Yes. Look, I've said all along, our strategy is the right product to the right customer in the right place and that hasn't changed. And I've stressed one of the things that I'm really energized about in the fixed wireless space is what it means in the business market. We're growing our volumes and business, and I love that. And I'll grow fixed wireless and business subscribers all day long. Usage characteristics are different. Oftentimes, those customers come with more bodies, which means there's an opportunity in the account to sell more wireless than you might get in a typical household. So the value of the portfolio with that customer is greater. Many of those customers have more than 1 location. The beauty of fixed wireless and combined with fiber allows us to meet them where they need to be met with both technologies and provide them with national solutions.
So some of this growth that you're seeing in fixed wireless is because we're getting better in business. And I will take that all day long, and I'll do that all day and there's also great applications for fixed wireless as backup and a lot of our other customers that we drive volumes off of. That's good stuff.
In consumer, as I've said, I'm really happy selling fixed wireless is, one, in places where I can pre-penetrate prior to fiber or save embedded customers that ultimately will be converted to fiber. So if I've got some small portions of our DSL base that I can pick up on fixed wireless is a holding strategy because it's better than DSL until fiber shows up. That's a good decision to make. If it's a place I can pre-seed customers as we're going to build, such as in the Lumen footprint, that's a good place to do it because you roll a consolidated account at some point. And then in places where I'm not going to be building, there are segments of the consumer base that are well tuned to fixed wireless. It's not the 4-bedroom household with 5 people in it, but it may well be the studio apartment, or it may well be the value segment play. And those are okay places to be with it as well, and I think it has more sustainability.
And if we do that well as a business, if we tailor our selling in that construct well, we'll drive value. If we don't sell to the right places, then 2 years from now, I'm going to be talking to you about higher churn on the fixed wireless product that we couldn't sustain. And I don't want to see us in that position. And I think we're trying to manage in that regard.
As you think about the source of FWA on the consumer side, is that coming from the existing T base? Or is that new-new as you guys would describe it?
It's mostly new. But there is -- we're actively using the product in places where we are shutting down copper infrastructure to clean out the last remaining 3 DSL customers here, the 5 over here. And so we're actively using the product in that regard, but it is not the bulk of our volume by any stretch of...
Yes. But great attach rates to your wireless base because you can...
Correct.
Disclose that. Great. So shifting gears a little bit here, sticking with the business angle, but hyperscalers are making massive investments in data centers to support AI tools and applications that consumers and businesses will access through both wireless and fixed internet connections. How do you see AT&T positioned as a provider of this connectivity or as a provider of edge infrastructure for AI workloads? Is this a material opportunity? Do you need to make incremental investments or new partnerships?
I think about this in -- maybe in 3 pieces before you kind of get to the edge compute dynamic or as part of it. The first piece is you've got to have great strategic access. You got to get people on the network. We've invested heavily to do that. That's what our fiber investments in play was about, which is get more fiber to more businesses and more customers because at the end of the day, for heavy workloads, it is the best, lowest marginal cost technology with the best future proofing that you can invest in.
And then secondly, make sure you have a great wireless network, and part of our strategy on wireless is to make sure that upstream capabilities in that wireless network are superior, hence, the EchoStar transaction, the deployment of the 600 that allows us to get more symmetrical low-band spectrum that will allow us to engineer that in a way that we can have a higher performing network in the upstream than what historically wireless has delivered with our preferred low-band positioning.
So preferred access is the first thing. Once you get the network, the traffic on the network, you got to deliver it into the infrastructure that people want to use, whether it's an LLM or somebody's cloud infrastructure. And so it's important that you have a great metropolitan aggregation network and ultimately, the right backbone to deliver that traffic to the right place around the country. And when you're delivering those packets, you can see it from your access, whether they're fixed or mobile, and track it all the way back to the handoff and then deliver it back so that you know exactly what the performance of that packet is especially when you're in demanding workloads like inference that maybe require shorter latency.
And so we've been actively in the data center market and actively working with hyperscalers to ensure that we're building shared infrastructure into their access points and have the right relationships through a combination of dark and lit fiber that ensures that our backbone and our aggregation networks can deliver those packets that we get off of our preferred access into their infrastructure, and I have visibility as I hand it into the infrastructure and receive it back and deliver it to the end points. And that's the fundamental approach we're using in how we architect the network.
And we've been actively playing in that. We're not maybe as vocal about it as some because we see it as only a part of our strategy to complement our access where the real value is. And I think part of the reason you should assume that the improved performance that is occurring in our business market segment is related to what we've been able to do to sell on top of that value proposition and that infrastructure.
Now the third part of the stool that has to be evaluated is, in that value chain of delivering that traffic is it makes sense to insert some compute capability someplace in -- where we have advantaged points of presence out closer to the edge. And the answer is it may, don't know, still watching what those workloads are that are developing. I can certainly come up with some that I think might require that. I think a lot of it will depend on where those data centers for the various hyperscalers and those that own the AI infrastructure will be. My point of view is the large vertical players will probably be present in virtually every metro in the United States. And so then the question is, what is the latency to deliver off that high-performing access network we're building into that metro, and will it require something faster than that extra couple of miles to get from the edge of our network into the metro and back. And I think that remains to be seen.
We're prepared to do something if we think it makes sense to do that. I can't tell you that I'm convinced that the network itself isn't going to solve that problem as this matures over time, but we're watching it carefully.
Okay. You've talked about a reordering of assets for a while now, and you executed on this with some of your recent transactions, but peers are -- also seem to be following suit to some degree. Do you -- how do you know this is enough? Do you still feel like you have all the assets you need? Or does it make sense to maybe pursue more acquisitions, particularly on the fiber side?
We have enough to keep ourselves busy right now, and we have enough to deliver the guidance and the plan that we put in front of you that we see a really advantaged structural position as we exit 2030. I'm going to answer it the same way I've always answered it. I pay attention to assets in the industry, and I like to be opportunistic if there's something out there that creates value.
I think Lumen was a classic example of that. It was something we evaluated for a long period of time. Originally, we couldn't get the asset in a way that we thought made sense for our business. We are patient. We ultimately got it in a way that I think made a lot of sense, which was a fiber -- a set of fiber assets in great metropolitan areas at a very fair value. And our execution on that since closing is exactly on pace to what we expected to occur.
If something like that were to pop up again that could drive the same kind of value under the same construct, would I be open to deploying shareholder capital to go after that and drive the kind of upside that I think we're going to get out of the Lumen transaction? Of course, I'd be open to doing something like that. Do I think there's -- knowing the market that's out there right now, it's pretty fragmented. There isn't probably another 5 million, 6 million home opportunity that shows up. One thing that I don't think overbuilders and people who have been in this space really understand is you can't build 30,000 here and 20,000 there and 40,000 here and have a scaled business, and this is a scaled business. And so I'm not interested in picking up postage stamps, little pieces here and there. I would obviously pay attention to what made sense within the broader footprint.
But if the right thing popped up or if there were assets that were mismanaged that had to be cleansed, in bankruptcy or something like that, would I possibly be an aggregator of it? We'd, of course, look at it and understand it, and we'd do it with the same eye to making sure we sustain the returns we promised shareholders up to this point in time and doing it in a way where we could stand up to those commitments and drive the value back. But right now, we've got great organic investment, if you didn't get that from my opening comments, to drive the kind of growth we're talking about. And that's play #1, and this team really needs to execute around that. And when we do execute around that, your confidence in the management team and what we're able to do and how we're able to deploy capital will only get greater because part of delivering on that guidance is taking assets like what we picked up with Lumen and actually driving value out of them. And you're going to say that play works, that makes sense, and I like what they do, and you will trust us to do that if it were to happen.
Yes. And I think just a quick follow-up on Lumen. Because the integration is in flight there, but as we think about shovels in the ground, executing against the ramping fiber build you talked about, how many passings do you expect to add this year or the pace that you expect to get to exiting 2026? Still on track there?
Yes, there's two parts of it. There's the, how do you sell into the existing assets you picked up and that's fast afoot right now, and it's going well, including we've turned the first markets over to the AT&T fiber conversion, which means you pull the old brand out of the market, all the technology that goes into a customer's house and all the customer support, the branding and everything becomes AT&T and the methodologies become AT&T. And that's good because those are the best in the country, and they drive the highest customer satisfaction.
We did our first market a couple of weeks ago. We turned the second one yesterday, and we have a rolling schedule here in the next 1.5 months, 2 months where we get them all converted, it's going well. And as a result of that, volumes inbound on that embedded base are very much in line, if not better than what we expected. So the sales opportunity is largely being gated by our ability to staff right now, and we're ramping on that and getting better.
Second part is the build engine. And that's a harder thing to do, candidly, to grow that in. We've got multiple states where that has to expand. We feel very comfortable with our ramp in many of those states. There's a couple where, as usual and as to be expected, different municipalities have different expectations on permitting and some are smart and they like to welcome investment and make it easy, and others view it as a hijacking and that's not new in this business, and that's not new to AT&T. We know how to deal with these things, and we don't like to get hijacked.
So sometimes you adjust where you're going to go build and deploy that capital where you can get return and move quickest, and we're doing those adjustments to the build plan. But I believe as we get out -- it's a long game, I believe as we get out of a year, we're going to have a portfolio of things that can get us the volumes we want. If not, having a little bit of choppiness in the quarter is building up to that, as I've said, don't look at this in the 90-day segment, look at this over the course of the year, 1.5 years is, do we grow. And I'm very confident that what we're seeing, we're going to deliver on.
And then the quick follow-up here to close this out. Just thinking about capital intensity. I mean, do you need to pull back on any of your spending to remain -- stay competitive in the marketplace? Do you think your capital allocation framework, is this the right level?
Pull back to stay competitive, is that like pull back to be competitive with the underspending of my peer? Or is that to pull back to stay competitive to be successful in the market?
Both.
Both. No, I don't need to pull back to be -- our value proposition, what I've articulated is the direction of the company. And we believe this exits 2030 with a structural, sustained advantage in the business, and it's the right place to go for us to have the best product in the market that can compete on a consolidated basis. And I'm very confident in that, and we do that.
Now do we tweak because of opportunity on economic conditions with that in mind to get to that North Star and watch pace? We're always adjusting that, but am I going to come back out and say, we were wrong, we don't need to build that fiber infrastructure, or do it the way we're doing. That's not in the cards at least under this administration. And I'm asking investors to underwrite the fact that I think we exit with a structural advantage and a different growth profile that is the premier company that has consolidated fiber assets in metropolitan areas in the United States that serve both consumer and business with a ripping wireless network to go to boot and that we integrate all the other technologies that come in and do it better than anybody else. And that's what's going to set us apart.
Awesome. Great place to end it. Thanks again, John.
Thanks, Sebastiano. It's good to be with you.
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AT&T — J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology
AT&T — J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology
AT&T setzt auf massiven Fiber-Ausbau, Konvergenz von Mobilfunk und Festnetz sowie eine Satelliten-JV als strategische Ergänzung.
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kernfokus: Fiber-first: AT&T will Marktanteile durch schnellen Glasfaserausbau gewinnen, Mobilfunk als nationalen Rückhalt nutzen und konvergente Produkte fördern.
- Ziel: EBITDA-Wachstum beschleunigen (>5% bis 2028) und Cashflow-Verbesserung durch Aufbau größerer, besser ausgelasteter Fußabdrücke.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Build‑Plan: Dieses Jahr werden rund 7 Mio. zusätzliche Haushalte (Passings) in die Fiber‑Opportunity aufgenommen; langfristig ~5 Mio. Homes/Jahr geplant.
- Satellite‑JV: Joint Venture für Direct‑to‑Device (AST SpaceMobile‑Technologie) zur Ergänzung der Konnektivität, mit Fokus auf einen robusten Großhandelsmarkt und gemeinsame Bodeninfrastruktur.
- Akquisitionen: Lumen‑Assets werden integriert (Marktkonvertierungen laufen), Fokus auf metropolitane Fiber‑Assets statt auf „Postage‑Stamp“-Zukäufe.
🔎 Neue Informationen
- JV‑Status: Term Sheet steht; definitive Vereinbarung wahrscheinlich, Timing abhängig von regulatorischer Prüfung (DOJ‑Second‑Request möglich).
- Operationell: Erste Lumen‑Märkte bereits zu AT&T‑Fiber konvertiert; Net Adds im Breitband Q1 beschleunigt.
- Guidance: Management bestätigt bisherige Guidance und erwartet Verbesserungen im Cashflow ab Q2.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Satelliten‑Risiko: Nachfrage nach Details zu Timing, regulatorischen Hürden und Ausgestaltung des Wholesale‑Marktes; Management blieb beim Zeitplan bewusst vage.
- GTM‑Strategie: Diskussion zur gezielten Ansprache preisempfindlicher Segmente und möglichen ARPU‑Effekten; Stankey betont langfristigen Lifetime‑Value über anfängliche Dilution.
- Churn & Wettbewerb: Wann Konvergenz zu spürbar niedrigerem Churn führt; Unsicherheit wegen Konkurrenzaktionen von Kabelern und etwaiger Saisonalität/Permit‑Bottlenecks im Ausbau.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Ausblick: Reaffirmation des strategischen Pfades: substanzielle Upside bei erfolgreichem Ausbau, Lumen‑Integration und Satelliten‑JV. Kurzfristige Risiken: regulatorische Prüfungen, Genehmigungs‑/Permitting‑Delays und Wettbewerbsreaktionen. Aktionäre brauchen Geduld; Wert hängt stark von Execution ab.
AT&T — Shareholder/Analyst Call - AT&T Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon. I'm Stacey Maris, Senior Vice President, Secretary and Chief Privacy Officer at AT&T.
Welcome to the AT&T 2026 Annual Stockholders Meeting. Please note that today's meeting is being recorded.
Before we get started, I'd like to call your attention to our safe harbor statement. Some of our comments today may be forward-looking. As such, they're subject to risks and uncertainties referenced in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ materially.
I also want to note that the quiet period for FCC Spectrum Auction 113 is in effect. During this period, applicants are required to avoid discussions of bids, bidding strategy and post-auction market structure with other auction applicants.
Later in today's meeting, we will respond to questions from stockholders. We've already received a number of questions. If you are a stockholder and wish to submit a question or a comment, we invite you to do so at any time by clicking the Q&A icon. Depending on the number of questions we receive, it may not be possible to answer them all during this meeting. For questions we don't address, we will post our responses on the Investor Relations website within 30 days. If your question is about your AT&T account, we will follow up with you individually.
Now it's my pleasure to turn our meeting over to AT&T Chairman and CEO, John Stankey.
Well, thank you, Stacey, and good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of our Board, our management team and our employees, I want to welcome you to AT&T's 2026 Annual Stockholders Meeting.
In addition to Stacey, with us today is David McAtee, our General Counsel. Also joining us is Trent Handy, who is the Global Assurance Partner representing our auditor, Ernst & Young.
In a few moments, we'll begin with the business portion of the meeting, and I'll give a brief report on the state of your company, and we'll end by answering your questions. But first, I'd like to introduce your Board of Directors.
Kelly Grier, retired U.S. Chair and Managing Partner of Ernst & Young LLP; Bill Kennard, former U.S. Ambassador to the European Union and former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission, who currently serves as our Independent Lead Director; Steve Luczo, Senior Partner of Crosspoint Capital Partners and former Chair and CEO of Seagate Technology; Marissa Mayer, Founder and CEO of Dazzle AI, Inc. and former CEO of Yahoo; Mike McCallister, retired Chair and CEO of Humana; Beth Mooney, retired Chair and CEO of KeyCorp; Matt Rose, retired Chair and CEO of Burlington Northern Santa Fe; Cindy Taylor, retired President and CEO of Oil States International; Luis Ubiñas, Chair of the Statue of Liberty-Ellis Island Foundation and former President of the Ford Foundation; and myself, Chair and CEO of AT&T.
Let's now turn to the business portion of the meeting, starting with a few reminders about voting. If you already submitted your proxy or voting instructions, you do not need to vote today. Your shares will be voted in accordance with the directions you provided.
If you are a stockholder and have not submitted your vote or if you want to change your vote, you may vote today by clicking the Vote icon on the website hosting this broadcast. So with that, the polls are now open.
Our first order of business is to vote on the election of directors. This is item #1 in the proxy. The Board has nominated 10 incumbent directors for reelection. The name and background of each director can be found in the proxy statement. Your Board of Directors recommends a vote for each nominee.
Next up is ratification of the appointment of Ernst & Young as our independent auditors for 2026. This is item #2. Your Board recommends a vote for this item.
Item #3 is the vote on executive compensation. As described in our proxy, the Board's Human Resources Committee has structured an executive compensation program that pays for performance, is competitive in the market for key talent and aligns the interest of our executives with your interest as stockholders. Your Board of Directors recommends a vote for this proposal.
Item #4 is the vote on the amendment to the restated certificate of incorporation to provide for officer exculpation. As described in our proxy, the Board believes that exculpating certain officers from personal liability under the limited circumstances permitted under applicable law would enhance the company's ability to recruit and retain exceptional candidates and allow these officers to exercise their business judgment without the distraction of frivolous litigation. Your Board of Directors recommends a vote for this proposal.
Item #5 is the vote on the 2026 incentive plan. As described in our proxy, the 2026 incentive plan replaces the 2018 incentive plan and like the prior plan, permits the company to compensate eligible employees with the equity and cash awards. The 2026 incentive plan authorizes the issuance of up to 130 million shares through a variety of possible awards and plays a key role in the compensation of the company's employees. The Board of Directors recommends a vote for this proposal.
Item #6 is the vote on the stock purchase and deferral plan. Stock purchase and deferral plan is designed to offer eligible employees the opportunity to invest in AT&T common stock by deferring their income, increasing employees' interest in the continued success of the company. The Board has amended the stock purchase and deferral plan to increase the number of shares available for issuance by 60 million to a total of 136 million and to make certain administrative changes as described in our proxy. Your Board of Directors recommends a vote for this proposal.
We'll now turn to our stockholder proposals. Item #7 in our proxy is a stockholder proposal submitted by John Chevedden on the shareholder right to act by written consent. He's elected to present the proposal live. We'll now turn it to Mr. Chevedden, who will have 2 minutes to introduce the proposal. Operator, please open the line.
The line is now open. You may begin your remarks.
Hello. This is John Chevedden. Proposal 7, shareholder right to act by written consent. Shareholders request the Board of Directors take the necessary steps to permit written consent by the shareholders entitled to cast the minimum number of votes that would be necessary to authorize an action at a meeting, which all shareholders entitled to vote thereon were present and voting. This includes the shareholder ability to initiate any appropriate topic for written consent.
Acting by written consent gives shareholders greater standing to engage effectively with AT&T management, which is especially important during AT&T's long drought of underperformance. This proposal received 42% support at the previous AT&T Annual Shareholder Meeting. This 42% support likely represented more than 50% support from the AT&T shares that have access to independent proxy voting advice and are the most informed shareholders regarding the AT&T ballot items.
AT&T shareholders who do not have access to independent proxy voting advice can be guided by the view of the most informed AT&T shareholders and vote for this Proposal 7. Now is a good time to increase shareholder rights by adopting this proposal due to the long-term underperformance of AT&T stock. AT&T stock was at $43 in 2016 and is at only $24 now in spite of a robust stock market.
Please vote yes, shareholder right to act by written consent, Proposal 7.
Thank you. Your line is now muted.
Thank you, Mr. Chevedden. As noted in the proxy, AT&T already allows stockholders owning 15% of its outstanding stock to call a special meeting. The proposal's requested changes are unnecessary, costly and burdensome for AT&T and its stockholders. The Board of Directors recommends a vote against this proposal.
Finally, Item #8 is the stockholder proposal submitted by the Comptroller of the City of New York regarding EEO-1 report disclosure. The Comptroller has elected to present the proposal live and is represented today by Ms. Yumi Narita. We'll now turn it to Ms. Narita, who will have 2 minutes to introduce the proposal. Operator, please open the line.
Your line is now open. You may begin your remarks.
Well, this connection matters. So I hope it's AT&T. Good afternoon, Mr. Stankey, Mr. Kennard, the Board and fellow shareholders. My name is Yumi Narita, and I'm presenting Item 8 on behalf of Comptroller Levine and 4 of our New York City pension funds. Our request is a proposal to adopt a policy to annually disclose the EEO-1 report.
For decades, the shareholder proposal process has provided a practical, efficient way for long-term investors to engage with the companies they own. It has allowed us to raise concerns, test ideas and work constructively with corporate management on issues ranging from governance and risk oversight to long-term strategy.
This year, however, without even engaging with us, you decided that you could effectively exclude this EEO-1 proposal as the no-action process had significantly changed, and we were left without the traditional SEC pathway to resolve the dispute. Instead, we turned to the courts and then you finally called us to let us know that our EEO-1 proposal would appear in the proxy. While we were very pleased to reach a resolution, the process was longer, more complex and more costly than it needed to be, something that could have been entirely avoided.
This is not a better system for anyone and especially not for investors or for companies. The shareholder proposal process has long served as a pressure valve. It allows investors to raise concerns and companies to respond without escalating into adversarial actions like lawsuits or proxy contests. In many cases, proposals are withdrawn after productive engagement or they provide valuable insight into shareholder priorities even when they proceed to a vote.
Over time, this could lead to more aggressive shareholder campaigns, increased votes against directors and greater market instability. We encourage the AT&T Board to reconsider their stance on EEO-1 report disclosure and to allow investors to maintain their right to submit and vote on shareholder proposals. Thank you very much.
Thank you. The line is now muted.
Thank you, Ms. Narita. AT&T is strongly committed to a workplace that values mutual respect through its existing policies and disclosures and already provides meaningful and adequate information. An additional disclosure policy for its EEO-1 report will not provide additive information and carries risk of confusion. Your Board of Directors recommends a vote against this proposal.
This is our final business item. Please finish submitting your ballots.
[Voting]
The polls are now closed. That concludes our official business. While we await preliminary voting results, I'll give you an update on the state of your company, and then we'll take your questions.
We delivered another solid year in 2025 as we made good progress against our strategy to be the best advanced connectivity provider. Based on our view of how U.S. connectivity is evolving, we've been investing at the top of our industry in fiber and 5G, strengthening American competitiveness, supporting local communities and economies and positioning us to best serve customers' increasing preference to get all of their connectivity needs from one provider.
As a result of these investments, we own and operate America's largest advanced converged fiber and wireless network. The market continues to validate our direction and execution. Our vision, combined with the assets we put together now uniquely positions AT&T to lead our industry forward.
I'm proud to report that 150 years after the very first phone call by Alexander Graham Bell, the company stands here today financially strong and well positioned to meet the growing demand for converged always-on advanced connectivity.
We also continue to deliver on our commitments. And in 2025, we met or exceeded all consolidated full year financial guidance. We brought fiber to more places and increased fixed wireless availability with deeper spectrum coverage. This resulted in our best consumer Internet subscriber growth in a decade.
In wireless, we're growing the right way, attracting high-quality profitable subscribers. Most importantly, more people are choosing AT&T for all of their connectivity needs than ever before. Our investments, both organic and through acquisitions have positioned us to accelerate and scale the execution of our converged strategy in 2026. By the end of the year, we expect to reach over 40 million fiber customer locations. This puts us well ahead of the competition and on target to reach more than 60 million total fiber locations by the end of 2030.
We're now able to reach more than 90 million customer locations across the country with our advanced Internet services over either 5G or fiber, all in America's largest wireless and fiber network with America's best and fastest home Internet backed by the AT&T Guarantee. As we continue to expand our reach with our advanced Internet services, coupled with the accelerated pace of converged customers, 42% of our advanced home Internet customers choose AT&T wireless.
We strongly believe we still have plenty of runway to grow. By applying the right strategy to the right market, we have the ability to win in new places and with underpenetrated customer segments across consumers and businesses.
While investing to drive the business forward, we also return more to you, our stockholders. We returned over $12 billion through dividends and buybacks last year. That's more than a 50% increase from 2024. In January of this year, we detailed plans for even greater shareholder returns over the following 3 years. Over this time frame, we anticipate delivering more than $45 billion in returns to you, thanks to an attractive dividend and share repurchases.
As responsible stewards of your capital, our plans balance increased shareholder returns with continued investments to expand and modernize our networks while working to become more efficient in how we operate our business and serve our customers. This includes achieving over $1 billion in cost savings in 2025 and scaling to an additional $4 billion in cost savings by the end of 2028 by leveraging AI, moving more customer transactions to digital experiences, achieving greater operating leverage from a growing customer base, executing against our ongoing transformation initiatives, including powering down the large majority of our legacy copper-based infrastructure by the end of 2029 and modernizing our wireless network to be more open and interoperable, an effort we are now more than halfway through.
We're operating our business from a position of strength. As we lean into the strategic foundation we built and as we continue to accelerate and scale the execution of our strategy, we expect to deliver on the shareholder commitments outlined at our Analyst and Investor Day in 2024 and updated in our 2025 fourth quarter earnings that will demonstrate increased cash generation, consistent growth in adjusted EBITDA and EPS, solid balance sheet flexibility.
As we enter the next era of connectivity, we remain focused on playing our part, ensuring every American has reliable high-speed Internet so they can take advantage of and benefit from the AI era through access to education, jobs, health care and so much more.
With private sector investment and smart public policy coming together, more people and communities are connected than ever before. It's clear that government leaders across all levels recognize the critical role advanced networks play in driving economic growth through flourishing intermodal competition and initiatives like the federal government's BEAD program and pro-investment policies included in the One Big Beautiful bill, we're closer than ever to closing the digital divide.
The FCC also recently adopted rules that strengthen our ability to invest in modern networks and shift from outdated copper to new and more reliable services like fiber and wireless. We appreciate the FCC and Chairman Carr's continued leadership in modernizing America's communications networks and we remain committed to taking the right approach in deploying investments to modernize infrastructure as we support our customers every step of the way.
Ultimately, our goal is to make Internet access not only more easily available, but affordable to everyone. To do this, it's critical that the next big policy issue is a sustainable universal service fund aligned with how people connect today. This is the next important step for congressional policymakers to create a digital future that benefits everyone, and AT&T will continue to advocate for a smart and tailored solution to the challenge.
In closing, our teams have positioned AT&T to lead our industry as we enter the dawn of the AI economy. Building and expanding infrastructure to ensure advanced connectivity across America remains critically important, and we remain optimistic about the opportunity to invest and drive returns in this environment.
I'm grateful to our dedicated current and past employees. It's your hard work that keeps our country connected. Thank you for all you do. I also want to recognize the invaluable insights and support of our Board of Directors. Your leadership, counsel and expertise remain vital to our company's success.
Of course, I'm grateful to you, our stockholders, for your confidence in AT&T. We remain committed to the growth objectives we've laid out. We'll continue to be responsible stewards of your capital and expect to deliver competitive returns to you while positioning AT&T for a bright future.
After years of investing in best-in-class connectivity, we now have a structural advantage that others won't catch. We're laying the foundation to deliver the connectivity needed to lead our industry in the AI era. Even after 150 years, I'm convinced our best days are ahead of us.
With that, we'll now move into the question-and-answer portion of the meeting. Stacey?
Thanks, John. Our first question is about growth. Why do you believe AT&T will be able to drive growth in a saturated market where churn remains elevated?
Well, as I just mentioned, we believe one of the best ways for us to attract and retain customers is by leaning into the strength of our network and the services that we offer. After making years of industry-leading investments in fiber and 5G, we've got a structural advantage now that I don't think others can easily catch up to.
And if I put a finer point on that, we believe we're best positioned to win because we've got great scale reaching over 90 million customer locations with advanced Internet service. And because of that scale and the fact that we can run that infrastructure effectively with owner's economics, we believe we're able to offer that customer access to the Internet on a lower marginal cost structure than any competitor and do it with superior performance and an industry-leading experience on America's best and fastest home Internet.
And frankly, this positions us to compete on performance and value by putting our service at the center of our converged offers and over time, shifting the focus away from expensive device subsidies. I think the strategy is working. Customers are increasingly purchasing their Internet and wireless together from AT&T. And when that happens, really good things happen. We see that their lifetime on the network increases. They consistently express stronger brand love. They have higher Net Promoter Scores. The profitability goes up to us. They stay with us longer. And all that's good for us and good for the customer.
Stacey, how about the next question?
We're seeing a number of questions on satellite. Do you think that Starlink/SpaceX will be offering terrestrial cell service alongside their satellite offering? If so, how will AT&T compete?
Well, I'm not going to speculate on Starlink, but certainly anything is possible. What I can tell you is that we continue to view satellite as an important complementary role in connecting customers better in really hard-to-reach areas. But I don't think satellite is a substitute for the speed, reliability and capability of our assets that we've been investing in for decades to raise service levels and performance.
And we intend to build and offer the best always-on product in the market. Fiber, which is today's best performing, lowest marginal cost technology, is the foundation of that strategy, and it's best suited to win as we move into the AI generation. Always-on connectivity is no doubt coming to the U.S., and we think will be an important aspect of what our customers want from us.
And it's natural that we would work with LEO providers that have the capabilities to integrate those offerings into our services. That's precisely why we announced our planned joint venture this morning with 2 other U.S. networking companies to jointly buy satellite capacity and harmonize technical standards so we can foster a robust wholesale satellite ecosystem that seamlessly integrates these capabilities at an attractive price into the services that we already offer.
Stacey, what's next?
The next one is, how will AT&T win in an AI future?
Our strategies and capital allocation are going to remain focused on meeting the advanced connectivity needs of consumers, businesses, the public sector, first responders as everybody adjusts their business models and their lives to AI-enabled tools and applications. A little bit of what we just talked about with all that fiber deployment and what we're doing to bolster the wireless network.
I expect AI is going to fundamentally transform network requirements as well beyond download speeds to the ability to support more symmetrical traffic upstream just as much as downstream and ultra-low latency capabilities, session control of packets across multiple access technologies under sustained loads. And that's really how we're investing and architecting our network to be able to respond to what's going on right now. Investment in high-performance networking is a critical component of a competitive American AI ecosystem. And frankly, we've committed to greater investment than any of our peers in U.S. connectivity.
By the end of this decade, we expect we'll operate the most advanced and open communications network in the U.S., and it's going to be built on a foundation of dense metro fiber and deep nationwide spectrum. With the opportunity to reach more end users than our competition, coupled with our historically scaled metro and long-haul core assets, I think AT&T is incredibly well positioned to lead our industry in AI-ready connectivity.
All right. I thought AT&T committed to a leverage target of 2.5x. Why has it jumped so much?
Well, we shared at our Analyst and Investor Day in December of 2024 that at a 2.5x range net debt to adjusted EBITDA, our plans would support continued investment in the business at that level and enhanced shareholder returns and opportunistic use of the balance sheet would be also able to be sustained at that level.
We ended the first quarter with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 2.71x, which is up from 2.53x at the end of the fourth quarter last year. This is primarily due to the close of the Lumen transaction, adding over 4 million fiber locations into our footprint. So that's a good example of using the flexibility of the balance sheet to focus on a strategic opportunity that was in front of us.
We expect leverage is going to temporarily move to 3.2x following the closing of the EchoStar spectrum acquisition and then to decline to approximately 3x by year-end with a clear path to return to our 2.5x range target within approximately 3 years of the EchoStar closing. And we think that's a really comfortable place to run the business and gives us the right flexibility and the right balance on returns to our shareholders.
With that, Stacey, let's now go over to the preliminary voting results, if you will, please.
Okay. The first item is the election of directors. All 10 nominees were reelected.
For Item #2, the ratification of Ernst & Young as independent auditors for AT&T, there were 93.25% of votes cast in favor. As a result, the appointment of Ernst & Young as our independent auditors for 2026 has been ratified.
For Item #3, the advisory vote on executive compensation, there were 93.05% of votes cast in favor. Therefore, the proposal is approved.
Next, Item #4, the vote to approve the amendment to the restated certificate of incorporation to provide for officer exculpation. Unlike the other proposals in this proxy, an amendment to a restated certificate of incorporation requires a for vote by a majority of outstanding shares. With 86.65% of votes cast in favor and 53.88% of outstanding shares voted in favor, the proposal is approved.
For Item #5, the vote to approve the 2026 incentive plan, there were 96.22% of votes cast in favor. Therefore, that proposal is approved.
For Item #6, the vote to approve the stock purchase and deferral plan, there were 98.67% of votes cast in favor. Therefore, the proposal is approved.
For Item #7, the stockholder proposal on the stockholder right to act by written consent. There were 67.90% of votes cast against the proposal. Therefore, the proposal is defeated.
And finally, Item #8, the stockholder proposal on the EEO-1 report disclosure policy. There were 71.41% of votes cast against. Therefore, the proposal is defeated.
Thank you, Stacey. That concludes our formal business. I now declare the meeting adjourned. On behalf of the Board and the executive team of AT&T, thank you for joining us today, and thank you for your continued interest in our company.
Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.
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AT&T — Shareholder/Analyst Call - AT&T Inc.
AT&T — Shareholder/Analyst Call - AT&T Inc.
Vorstand wiedergewählt, zwei Aktionärsanträge abgelehnt; Management setzt auf Fiber/5G‑Konvergenz, >$45 Mrd. Rückflüsse, temporär höhere Verschuldung durch Akquisitionen.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
AT&T positioniert sich als führender Konnektivitätsanbieter durch massive Investitionen in Fiber und 5G und eine Konvergenz‑Strategie (kombinierte Internet‑ und Mobilangebote). Management betont erhöhte Kapitalrückflüsse (> $45 Mrd. über 3 Jahre), Kostenprogramme und eine aktive Bilanznutzung trotz kurzfristig höherer Verschuldung.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Fiber‑Ziel: Über 40 Mio. Kundenstandorte bis Jahresende; >60 Mio. bis 2030.
- Reichweite: Mehr als 90 Mio. Standorte mit Advanced‑Internet (5G oder Fiber); 42% der Advanced‑Home‑Internet‑Kunden wählen auch AT&T‑Wireless.
- Kapital & Effizienz: Rückflüsse 2025: >$12 Mrd.; geplant >$45 Mrd. über 3 Jahre; Kosteneinsparungen $1 Mrd. 2025 und zusätzlich $4 Mrd. bis Ende 2028.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Satelliten‑JV: Angekündigte gemeinsame Beschaffung von Satellitenkapazität und Harmonisierung technischer Standards mit zwei Partnern, um Wholesale‑Integration zu erleichtern.
- Akquisitionswirkung: Lumen‑Transaktion brachte >4 Mio. Fiber‑Standorte; EchoStar‑Spektrum treibt Net‑Debt/EBITDA kurzfristig auf ~3,2x, Rückkehr zur ~2,5x‑Range in ~3 Jahren erwartet.
- Guidance‑Update: Keine neue operative Guidance; Management bekräftigt Ziele von Analyst/Investor Day und Q4‑Update.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Wachstum & Churn: Management sieht Konvergenz (Bündelangebote) und eigene Netzstärke als Hebel, um Kundenwert und Retention zu steigern.
- Starlink & Wettbewerb: Satellite als komplementäre Technologie; keine Substitution für Fiber/5G; JV soll Integration und attraktive Wholesale‑Preise ermöglichen.
- AI & Netzwerk: Fokus auf symmetrische Bandbreite, Latenz und Session‑Kontrolle; AT&T erwartet, mit dichter Metro‑Fiber und Deep‑Spectrum besonders für AI‑Workloads zu profitieren.
🔍 Bottom Line
Das Management bietet klare Prioritäten: Netzleading durch Fiber/5G, Konvergenz zur Margensteigerung und erhebliche Kapitalrückflüsse. Aktionäre profitieren kurzfristig von Dividenden/Buybacks, sollten aber die temporär erhöhte Verschuldung durch Akquisitionen, Integrations‑ und Wettbewerbsrisiken (z.B. Satellitenanbieter) überwachen.
AT&T — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to AT&T's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference call over to our host, Brett Feldman, Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to our first quarter call. I'm Brett Feldman, Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations for AT&T. Joining me on the call today are John Stankey, our Chairman and CEO; and Pascal Desroches, our CFO.
Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our safe harbor statement. It says that some of our comments today may be forward-looking. As such, they are subject to risks and uncertainties described in AT&T's SEC filings. Results may differ materially. Additional information as well as our earnings materials are available on the Investor Relations website.
I also want to note that the quiet period for FCC Spectrum Auction 113 is in effect. During this period, applicants are required to avoid discussions of bids, bidding strategy and post-auction market structure with other auction applicants. And finally, I want to note that the discussion of our operating results and outlook during this call will be on a continuing operations basis.
With that, I'll turn things over to John.
Thanks, Brett, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining us today. We executed well in the first quarter, delivering results that were consistent with the outlook we provided, while implementing several key strategic initiatives. Last quarter, we told you that we had positioned AT&T for improved growth with our investment-led strategy in fiber and 5G, and there is clear evidence of this in our first quarter results.
We reported 584,000 total fiber and fixed wireless advanced Internet customer net additions. This is our best ever first quarter result and the sixth consecutive quarter with over 0.5 million consumer and business net adds. We also continue to see accelerated pace of our customers purchasing their wireless and Internet connectivity together. 42% of our advanced home Internet customers also choose AT&T wireless. But when excluding the transaction with Lumen, this convergence rate approached 45% on an organic basis during the first quarter. This is more than a 3 percentage point increase compared to last year, which is our fastest ever year-over-year convergence growth rate.
These results are encouraging, but not surprising. It is exactly what customers have told us they want. They're increasingly choosing what we believe to be the best combined fixed and mobile Internet service in the market. When our customers choose AT&T for their wireless and Internet connectivity, they consistently express stronger brand love, higher Net Promoter Scores and ultimately stay with us longer.
During our Analyst and Investor Day in 2024, we shared a few data points highlighting the relative improvements that we see among our converged customers in key operating metrics such as customer lifetime values and churn. These benefits remain robust, and we expect that as a greater portion of our customers purchase their wireless and Internet connectivity from AT&T, we'll demonstrate improved trends in churn and additional improvement in account growth.
During the first quarter, we made further progress in positioning AT&T as the preferred provider for connecting consumers and businesses to the Internet. We closed our transaction with Lumen ahead of schedule, adding 1.1 million fiber customers and over 4 million fiber locations. We're pleased with the progress we're making as we integrate these assets in several major metro areas and position the business for faster growth. Early indicators are positive. We now offer fiber services throughout our distribution channels in these areas, which has driven sales activity well above pre-transaction trends.
We're executing the steps to scale engineering, construction and service delivery in the acquired geographies and expect that as we move into the back half of the year, we'll achieve steady improvement in fiber and wireless customer growth in these areas. When we focus on customers' needs and invest in the experience and products they want, we find success. And in the first quarter, we gave customers more reasons to choose AT&T.
We expanded the AT&T guarantee to cover Internet Air and launched a new flagship app to deliver a simple digital-first experience to customers. We also launched AT&T OneConnect, which enables customers to easily connect all their eligible devices at home and on the go and eliminates the need to buy Internet access twice. We refreshed our Unlimited Your Way plans to deliver more value. All these moves are based on a consistent set of principles that drive our approach to serving customers the way they want to be served with offers that deliver on simplicity, value and choice and converged connectivity.
After years of industry-leading investments in our fiber and wireless network, we believe that we have now established a structural advantage that others will not catch. We reach more than 90 million customer locations across the country with our advanced Internet services over either fiber or 5G. We believe this provides us with more scalable reach and converged connectivity than any of our peers, including a meaningful scale and performance advantage in fiber. This is an advantage we're growing as we ramp our deployment at a faster pace than anyone else. Today, we reach over 37 million customer locations with fiber, and we're on track to reach 60 million-plus locations by the end of the decade.
As I discussed last quarter, when we complete our work at a fiber location, we believe we're able to offer that customer access to the Internet on a lower marginal cost structure than any competitor with superior performance and an industry-leading experience on America's best and fastest home Internet. This positions AT&T to compete on performance and value by putting our service at the center of our converged offers and shifting the focus away from expensive device subsidies.
You saw us lean into this advantage with the launch of AT&T OneConnect, the industry's first-ever single subscription service for fiber and wireless with a flat monthly price. This is how you should expect us to go to market as we accelerate the expansion of our fiber availability with offers and marketing strategies that yield attractive returns by driving deeper fiber penetration and growth in converged customer relationships. Running these plays has not only strengthened our performance in the consumer market, but they've begun to demonstrate that the same strategy can strengthen our business enterprise operations.
During the first quarter, Advanced Connectivity business service revenue stabilized on a year-over-year basis for the first time ever. This reflects improved growth in fiber and 5G that is now offsetting declines in transitional services such as VPN as we drive better sales execution across an expanding footprint of business locations that we can reach with fiber and fixed wireless. We're operating from a position of strength as we lean into the strategic foundation we've built. Our investments have positioned us to accelerate and scale the execution of our strategy in 2026. And through the course of the year, you can expect to see the momentum in our operating trends build.
As we continue our journey forward, our strategies and capital allocation will remain focused on meeting the advanced connectivity needs of consumers, businesses, the public sector and first responders, as they adopt and rely on AI-enabled tools and applications. We expect AI to fundamentally transform network requirements beyond download speeds to the ability to support symmetrical capacity, ultra-low latency and session control across multiple access technologies under sustained load. And that's how we're architecting our converged network.
We've committed to greater investment than any of our peers in the U.S. connectivity infrastructure. And by the end of this decade, we expect to operate the most advanced and open communications network in the U.S., built on a foundation of dense metro fiber and deep nationwide spectrum. With the opportunity to reach more end users than our competition, coupled with our historically scaled metro and long-haul core, AT&T is well positioned to lead our industry in AI-ready connectivity.
Investment in high-performing networking is a critical component of a competitive American AI ecosystem. We continue to appreciate the leadership of FCC Chairman, Carr, and the commission's continued efforts to modernize America's networks. What we see transpiring on the federal policy front are the absolute right moves for the U.S. to sustain leadership in communications infrastructure at this seminal moment in the birth of the AI economy.
I reflect on this moment within the context of AT&T's milestone celebration of the 150th anniversary of the first phone call. For a century and a half, we've adjusted to shifts in markets, technology and the evolution of public policy. It's a story of many chapters over 150 years shared by proud and dedicated AT&T employees and retirees consistently rising to our long-standing call of the spirit of service.
While all the chapters are important, some turn out to be more consequential than others. And I believe we're entering one of those chapters that will be exactly that. I couldn't be more optimistic given how this company has positioned itself as we enter this defining moment that our best days are ahead of us.
With that, I'll turn it over to Pascal.
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. At a consolidated level, total revenues were up 2.9% year-over-year in the first quarter, and service revenues were up 1.4%. Our growth is increasingly driven by gains in fiber and fixed wireless Internet customers as well as our success at growing customer accounts that choose AT&T for both Internet and wireless connectivity. We continue to expect we will grow consolidated service revenues in the low single-digit range for the full year, driven by growth in wireless service, fiber and fixed wireless revenues, partially offset by declines in transitional and Legacy revenues.
Adjusted EBITDA was up 2.3% year-over-year in the first quarter, and adjusted EBITDA margin decreased 30 basis points to 37.4%. As a reminder, our first quarter 2025 results included a benefit to adjusted EBITDA of approximately $100 million related to the resolution of vendor settlements.
During the first quarter, we made good progress executing against our ongoing transformation initiatives as we work towards achieving our target of $4 billion in annual cost savings by the end of 2028. These include force optimization and vendor rationalization, efficiency gains from further AI enablement, accelerated digitalization efforts, and reductions to our Legacy operations and support costs. We expect improved growth in adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter as comparisons normalize, service revenue growth improves and as we implement further cost actions. And we continue to expect consolidated adjusted EBITDA growth in the 3% to 4% range for the full year.
Free cash flow was $2.5 billion, which is at the high end of the $2 billion to $2.5 billion outlook we provided in January. Free cash flow declined by roughly $600 million compared to last year, which was driven primarily by higher capital investment of $5.1 billion as we accelerate the pace of our fiber deployment. For the second quarter, we expect free cash flow in the range of $4 billion to $4.5 billion, and we continue to expect $18 billion plus of free cash flows for the full year. Adjusted EPS of $0.57 in the first quarter was up nearly 12%, and we continue to expect full year adjusted EPS to be in the $2.25 to $2.35 range. Under our new segment reporting, over 90% of our consolidated revenue and nearly all of our adjusted EBITDA is generated by our Advanced Connectivity segment. We believe this new reporting format improves transparency into the growth we are achieving from our investments in fiber and 5G as well as our progress at powering down our Legacy copper network.
Focusing first on Advanced Connectivity, service revenues were up 3.6% compared to a year ago. Wireless service revenues grew 1.7% year-over-year, which is consistent with our guidance that growth in the first quarter would be below the run rate we expect for the full year. Our wireless service revenue growth was primarily driven by growth in our customer base, including 294,000 postpaid phone net adds in the first quarter. Postpaid phone ARPU was flat versus a year ago. This is consistent with the outlook we provided for relatively stable ARPU, as we gain customers in underpenetrated categories such as the value segment, and grow our base of converged accounts that receive discounts, but typically stay with us longer.
We expect second quarter year-over-year wireless service revenue growth to improve from growth reported in the first quarter and maintain our full year outlook for growth in the 2% to 3% range. This is driven by our outlook for customer gains from our new unlimited and converged subscription plans and our expanding opportunity to sell wireless and home Internet services together. It also reflects our recent pricing actions that take effect during the second quarter.
Advanced home internet service revenues grew 27.3% year-over-year. This includes 2 months of revenues from fiber customers in geographies we acquired from Lumen, which added about 650 basis points to our reported growth rate in the quarter. Similar to wireless, our organic growth in advanced home internet service revenue was primarily driven by growth in our customer base. advanced home internet net adds were 512,000, which does not include the 1.1 million customers we acquired from Lumen in early February. This was our best ever first quarter and included 273,000 fiber net adds and 239,000 Internet Air net adds. We continue to expect that our fiber reach will grow by about 8 million locations in 2026, including over 4 million locations we acquired from Lumen. As we ramp our fiber reach, we expect to see improved trends in our fiber net adds over the course of the year while still considering typical seasonality.
We are also seeing strong growth in our Business Fiber and Advanced Connectivity service revenues, which include business fixed wireless and value-added services. In the quarter, these revenues grew 7.2% year-over-year, which is consistent with the trend last quarter and improved from mid-single-digit growth a year ago. As John noted, total Advanced Connectivity business service revenues were essentially flat year-over-year for the first time ever. Based on our improved sales execution and expanding fiber reach, we expect total business service revenues within Advanced Connectivity segment to remain stable in the near term and continue to grow at a low single-digit CAGR through 2028.
Advanced Connectivity EBITDA grew 5.6% year-over-year, and we improved EBITDA margin by 30 basis points despite a few notable headwinds. These include high single-digit growth in low-margin equipment revenues as well as the inclusion of revenues in geographies acquired from Lumen, which did not make a material contribution to EBITDA in the quarter. In addition, about 40% of the adjusted EBITDA benefit from the vendor settlements we called out in the first quarter of 2025 was incurred in the Advanced Connectivity segment. So the improvement in Advanced Connectivity EBITDA margin was driven by service revenue growth as well as the durable benefit of cost actions that I discussed earlier.
Our outlook continues to anticipate an immaterial EBITDA contribution this year from the operating regions acquired from Lumen. This reflects increased spending within these geographies to stand up a business that is positioned for faster growth in fiber and wireless customers, as fiber deployment accelerates and as we leverage our existing distribution in these regions. We're really pleased with how the business is positioned coming out of the first quarter and continue to expect Advanced Connectivity service revenues to grow 5% plus this year with EBITDA growth of 6% plus.
Legacy service revenues declined about 25% year-over-year, which is consistent with our outlook for 20% plus decline in 2026. We stopped taking new orders for Legacy services last year in most of our wireline footprint, and we now have approval to discontinue Legacy services in more than 30% of our wire centers. We're actively working with customers in these areas and helping them upgrade to more advanced services like Internet Air and Phone Advanced. There is a lag between when customers migrate to more advanced services and when we are able to discontinue operations of Legacy infrastructure. This is the primary reason why the decline in Legacy EBITDA of about 40% was greater than the decline in revenue, and we expect this dynamic will persist for the next several quarters.
We ended the first quarter with net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA of 2.71x, which is up from 2.53x at the end of the fourth quarter last year. This was primarily due to the close of the transaction with Lumen. We continue to expect that our net leverage ratio will increase to approximately 3.2x following our transaction with EchoStar, then decline to approximately 3x by the end of 2026, and return to a level consistent with our target in the 2.5x range within approximately 3 years following the transaction.
We ended the first quarter with $12 billion in cash and with $19 billion available to draw on the term loans. So we are in a strong liquidity position as we prepare to close our transaction with EchoStar. We also continue to expect that we will close the transaction with an equity investor for the acquired Lumen Fiber assets during the second half of the year. We returned $4.3 billion to shareholders in the first quarter through dividends and share repurchases. We continue to expect to repurchase approximately $8 billion of stock this year and to maintain a consistent pace of buybacks through 2028, as we execute against our plans to return $45 billion plus to shareholders over this time period. I'm really proud of the team's ability to successfully balance our investment in fiber and 5G while maintaining consistent return to shareholders.
To wrap up, we continue to execute well, and I'm confident that we're positioned to drive improved growth and consistent capital returns through 2028, as we execute on our strategy.
Brett, we're now ready for the Q&A.
Thank you, Pascal. Operator, we are ready to take the first question.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from John Hodulik from UBS.
2. Question Answer
Two, if I could. First on OneConnect, can you talk about sort of how widely it will be rolled out? What kind of support you have from an advertising standpoint, maybe the target market? And then do you think it can drive subs in the near term? And just sort of your view on what the impact that could have?
And then secondly, the phone churn trend definitely improved, up 6 basis points. You had been seeing double-digit increases. Can that kind of improvement in phone churn that we've seen continue despite the increases from the Unlimited Your Way pricing?
John, your first question, look, if we didn't think it was going to have an impact, we wouldn't have started down this path. But to get to maybe the root of your question, and I think as we indicated when we rolled it out, this is going to be kind of an iteration rollout. We've established a platform now with OneConnect that allows us to start looking at the segments and the customers differently. I think you can pretty well understand by how the plan is tailored, the kind of customers that it is targeted toward.
One of the things that we see is, first of all, the BYOD segment is increasing more broadly. That's one reason why we started with it. We see customers more willing to hang on to their devices a bit longer, and they're certainly becoming more accustomed to porting them from one carrier to the next. And so we want to tailor this plan to make sure that we can receive those customers and then attach them to a network construct that drives churn down. And our belief is that by allowing them to have the simplicity of taking a number of devices and not thinking about whether it's the Wi-Fi in the car, the watch or anything else that they carry around, we think that, that starts to provide the network as the basis for driving customer loyalty and relationships, which plays into our strong suit. And that's also bolstered by the fact that, as you notice, it requires that you have fiber broadband.
And one of the best things we have to drive customer retention and customer lifetime value is by pairing fiber broadband with wireless. And so this is a plan to allow that to happen. It also tailors well into those account sizes that maybe are less than family plan sizes today that can grow over time. And I think you should expect that this platform that we've now laid out there can iterate over time. It can evolve. And over the course of this year, you'll see more variants of that plan come out that start to open the aperture more broadly in the market for customers that can qualify under the construct and work into it. And it will be one of several offers in our portfolio.
We just redid all of our rate plans, if you notice. And this is a particular plan that's targeted a particular segment and group of customers that we think will help with convergence and drive churn in a better direction over time. But we also have done some rework on our other base plans that will hit other portions of the market. And I think these are just natural evolutions that you see, one, given the maturity of the wireless space; and two, given the shifts that are occurring in convergence in the market that allow us to play offense and go out with something that's pretty important.
So I don't expect -- right now, sitting here today, I can tell you, massive amounts of volume on it in the first couple of weeks. We didn't expect that to be the case. But we do expect the platform to evolve and become an important part of the portfolio as we move forward. And an important part of the portfolio of putting the network first as a basis to attaching the customer and minimizing other constructs of how people have maybe chosen their service provider over time.
And related to your second question on churn trend and can it continue? I mean, I don't mean to be flip about it, but I think this is -- over time, the churn dynamic is just math. And as we shared in what I tried to articulate in my opening remarks, the best way for us to manage churn is to converge customers. And when we get through the repositioning, the shifting that's going on in the industry right now, which is aligning customers to asset bases, I believe you're naturally going to see that churn dynamic improve.
And so we said we're at 45% converged on kind of our non-Lumen base. You've been getting those numbers in the last several quarters that we've been sharing with you to show that acceleration. We've given you guidance out for several years where we've gone and done the math on where our fiber footprint is, where our AIA footprint is, the cohorts of customers we're going to target in those particular areas, the ones that we think we can hold over time, and we believe that, that's what builds a sustainable franchise and leads us to service revenue growth, and growth and leadership in the industry by the time we exit this decade. And that's that reordering of convergence along those asset bases that's going to make that happen.
It's going to take a little bit of time for that reordering of customer base to asset base to occur. And I think there's going to be a little bit of the accelerated churn dynamic that you've been seeing in the last couple of quarters as that shakes itself out. But just like any math equation, you hit that tipping point where you start to get the benefits of the strategy, and I think you're going to see it ultimately come back into the line. And when we tell you that we've got fantastic converged lifetime values, for example, fiber and wireless, then we'll have a dominant part of our portfolio that represents that base, and that's when profitability looks good and the franchise looks like a really strong franchise moving forward.
The next question comes from Michael Rollins with Citi.
John, in your opening comments, you described that AT&T will operate the most advanced and open communications network by the end of the decade. Can you unpack how AT&T is defining the term open, including how that impacts your go-to-market and how you look at further partnerships or acquisitions to maximize the TAM and your return on capital?
And then just secondly, if I could, on the account growth sequentially in consumer and mobility, can you share what's working for you and how you're balancing growth in accounts and ARPA relative to what you were just describing on convergence versus kind of the core mobility services that you offer?
Michael, so when I think about open and what we're driving toward, the thrusts I would articulate in that regard are, one, you know what we're doing in our wireless network. And the purpose of us opening aspects of our wireless network is to manage supply chain costs and performance of equipment and the architecture over time. And I think we're leading the industry in that regard. And I would expect that shortly as we begin to get to a point where we start to deploy some new spectrum as we close the EchoStar transaction, you'll see the first instantiation of that as we move forward and work our process of deploying that spectrum and how we build our network and what we're able to gain as benefit associated with that. And so that's one aspect of it.
The second aspect is the complete reengineering of the core of the network that we're doing that I think sometimes is overlooked a little bit. As I've shared with you before, we have multiple routing infrastructures that support different product lines in this business or different segments. What we use for routing infrastructure and consumer broadband fixed services is different than what we do, for example, for our business enterprise services, which is different than how we ship around our wireless packets and services, and we've been investing very aggressively to rearchitect that network, flatten it, integrate it, so that it's one solid routing network that handles all traffic.
In doing that, it does a lot of things. One is it opens up the opportunity, given the software stack and how we build that, to begin to offer a much broader set of APIs out into the public domain that allows people to manage and control their traffic differently. And that's going to allow for a tremendous amount of flexibility. And if you want to think about it in the context of just as hyperscalers opened up the ability to spin up compute and storage through touching parts of a terminal, there's no reason why our routing infrastructure and what we turn out to customers shouldn't have that same software-based capability that is digitally driven through API structures and allow not only our end users, but partner network customers to be able to control aspects of the network moving forward at a much lower internal operating cost that's all software-driven. And as that core becomes software-driven, it allows us to also use AI as a basis of us administering and managing that network. So instantiating those APIs out to the broader domain of our customer base is what makes the network flexible around it.
And so I would say that those are the 2 most fundamental aspects of opening the network that allow for us to be effective moving forward. And if we have great preferred access technology, meaning we can get bandwidth in more places than anybody else, hence, a deeper fiber network or a denser spectrum footprint and better wireless network, then that attracts traffic onto that network. It's the software control and programming of it and the dense access capillaries that allow people to say, I can get to more places with better bandwidth and better performance than anybody else. And therefore, that's why I want to be on that network. When it matters, it must be AT&T. And that's how you drive returns over the long haul on that investment strategy and that aggregation of capabilities.
In terms of account growth and what's working, it should be, I think, fairly apparent from what we shared, what's working is converging customers. And so when you look at the step-up in the convergence levels that you're getting, and I look at what's happening now, we're getting account growth. And if you look at like average line sizes, for example, on our wireless account base, those accounts that are coming in tend to be below average for what we might have in the embedded base. And that's an indicator that we're picking up 1 and 2 line accounts that are new to us. They're new, new. They're new fiber, they're new wireless. And that's really good, because ultimately, those 1 and 2 line accounts become the 3 and 4 line accounts of the future.
And as I said earlier during John's question, if we get them anchored in on a fiber base when they come in, it's the highest brand love of any product in the market, it's the best-performing product in the market. They have great positive brand perceptions. They're more likely to stay with us longer. They're more likely to buy more from us in the future. That's what all the data says on the customer base that's out there. And so those new, new customers, those kind of accounts are the ones that I want to grow.
And then secondly, we're getting some lift from Internet Air and the ability to converge both wireless and Internet Air with new customers on a combined basis. And we're being more specific in targeting that places, for example, where we know we will have fiber in the future, so that we can grow that customer base today and ultimately meet them with a very, very good, robust, sustainable offering over time. And those 2 things, I would say, are probably the biggest impact on the consumer side.
And then I would also tell you to look at the business revenues and look at the business performance and what we've been able to demonstrate to you. That doesn't happen without some new business account growth that's occurring in order to stabilize the Advanced Connectivity service revenues that you've seen in the quarter. Very proud of what the team has done on that, and obviously optimistic that we can carry that momentum forward, and there's more that we can do there as we fine-tune our distribution even further.
The next question comes from Sean Diffley with Morgan Stanley.
I was curious how you assess and plan for the perceived threat from satellite more on the fiber and broadband side, but anything you would add on direct-to-cell? Clearly, you have an AST SpaceMobile partnership. Would you ever consider doing MVNOs with emerging players? And how would you compare and contrast satellite versus the fixed wireless learnings?
Sean, sure. Let me -- it's a long question, but let me start by reiterating kind of what I just said and what our direction is. Our direction is to build the best converged network offering in the United States. And that means in order to do that, you have to have great foundational assets that you own and operate to do that. I just shared with you, for example, why is it important to have a core switching architecture, routing architecture that allows you to see every packet on a network, because that's the way that you're able to manage service performance, security, offer the kinds of capabilities across heterogeneous access technologies like wireless, fixed fiber, Wi-Fi, other technologies that allow you to ensure the quality of service of delivering a packet over those heterogeneous architectures.
And we start from a fantastic place with assets. We have great fiber. We've got a great wireless network. We have a great customer base that we know, that we know how to manage their accounts, we know how to manage their billing. We can build trust with them over time on the relationships that we have. And so when you start to think about more access technologies becoming available, such as direct-to-cell, which we're going to see an opportunity to close out white spaces, I think we're naturally positioned to add those capabilities on to the great integration we've already done to be a converged access provider. And I don't mean to harp on fiber, but once you get that in place with a customer, it's a really good place, not only because it's the lowest marginal cost to carry a bit of any technology that's available out there, but its performance is superior. And when you get top-end performance, the best performance, coupled with low marginal cost in the networking business, that's typically a really good combination for the long haul.
So we're going to continue to move to integrate partners. And I think when I think about LEO and satellites, you've heard me say it before, I think it's going to be great innovation for consumers. I think it's going to open up applications that none of us expected or knew about, and they're going to be new and different, and they're going to help grow the market in total. I think that when you look at where we're at right now, what's really on the horizon that maybe a couple of years ago we all would have said, could this really happen, 12 to maybe 18 to 24 months from now, we will have always-on connectivity in the United States.
And that's going to be really, really important. And I think our customers are going to want that. And I think it's natural that we work with LEO providers that have the capabilities to solve that problem, to integrate those offerings into our services. We have a great position with those customers. And as you've heard me say, my ideal outcome for the satellite space is that there's more than one satellite constellation up there.
And I've offered that, at some point, I'd expect that there's probably at least 3 serving the United States with capable products and services. We're working with one closely right now to make sure that they get off the ground and they're viable. That's AST SpaceMobile. We've been putting most of our R&D and our work on bringing product out with what they will be matching to the market, but I fully expect that SpaceX will ultimately have a robust direct-to-device capability. I would expect that Amazon LEO will have a robust direct-to-device capability. And who knows, maybe even a fourth shows up.
My goal would be that I have a good strong wholesale relationship. And it may not just be with one of them, it may be with more than one of them, and that we architect this in a way that we can continue to manage the traffic on our network and control packets, so that we are able to offer that end-to-end integrated service on a heterogeneous network. And that's the direction that we're taking.
Now if you're thinking about the threat of a direct-to-device approach, look, there's a lot to be done in getting LEO constellations up and working on direct-to-device. I think it will happen. But I don't think it's going to be a straight line from here to there. There's all kinds of challenges to work through these things. One is getting satellites up in the air. Two is getting them up and keeping them up. It's getting the right spectrum portfolio in place and working through all the issues of power levels and interference that are driven from it. It's getting the devices tuned, so they work properly.
Satellite works really good outdoors. It doesn't work very good indoors. It's sometimes lost on people that we have spent literally decades investing in communications infrastructure in this country to raise service levels and performance for end-user customers that they become accustomed to. And the landscape is littered with those that have come in and tried to kind of get into the business on the cheap or get into the business without understanding what the level of performance is necessary to have a minimally viable offering. Customers don't tolerate much interruption anymore. And there's decades of that infrastructure that's built. A lot of it is built on the interior buildings. I know in our company, we put about $1.5 billion a year into doing things to make sure hospitals and stadiums and hotels and universities all work really well, and you can't just flip a switch and get that done.
When I think about an MVNO construct, my approach in terms of how AT&T looks at it is we like to think about MVNOs in a way where it gets to a part of the market that we can't get to. It's an extension in a segment that maybe we're not doing a good job of penetrating and somebody can do it in a more creative way. And we also think about it in the context of we ensure that our network capabilities are used in a way that's consistent with our long-term goal to be the best converged operator in the U.S., which means that we don't just give traffic away without certain conditions and capabilities and requirements as to how they do business with us and how that capability is instantiated in the market. It's just not a wide open here, get connection to the network, do what you want with it.
And within that context, do I think that I'm looking at satellite LEO right now and saying that that's a place that an MVNO relationship would open up access to customers I don't have today. No, I don't think that's the case. I think I've got a way to bring the right value to customers broadly and what I just articulated. And look, I don't know that I'm worried about taking on any comer in broadband right now when I've got fiber in a home. As I said, lowest marginal cost, best performance, that usually does pretty well in the market. And I like our investment strategy and where we're going to have 60-plus million fiber homes by the time we get to 2030 and living off that base and being very successful with it.
The next question comes from David Barden with New Street Research.
So I guess 2, if I could. The first would be, John, the EchoStar Spectrum acquisition, could you kind of elaborate how that's going to augment the business and how we generate a return off of that opportunity?
And then second, could we update us on the copper retirement program and some of the advancements that you guys have been able to generate at the FCC along that front, and what that means from a cost savings and return standpoint?
Sure, Dave. So on the EchoStar side, look, there's 2 fundamental things that come here. One, the improvement of performance in the network is noticeable and there's markets where, because of the deployment of the spectrum, and I'm not speculating on this, as you know, we have a lease on a portion of the spectrum that we're acquiring that we've shared with you that we've put a large percentage of that already in service. And when we do that, we are already testing network perception in those markets that we felt like it would most help in, and we are seeing that perception shift. And as a result of that perception shifting, it will help our wireless business just by nature. It will help in terms of customer growth and retention and all those things that drive value in on that.
As you know, when we can buy spectrum, there's economic value created that is capital efficiency. It avoids us from having to build growth and capacity in other ways that are more expensive, and that has been since the start of time, and that still plays into the factor. And then as you are seeing, it's also allowed us to expand and increase our AIA or Internet Air penetration and distribution. And I'm very happy with where we stand on that right now. As I said earlier, it's a fantastic tool for us to use, one, to get businesses that we haven't had before. And I think it's a very sustainable technology for certain types of businesses that are out there.
Again, I'll go back to where you're seeing some improvement in our business performance. AIA is part of that. It's what's helping us get into customers where maybe we didn't have fiber before that have a little different broadband portfolio or a profile that they need, and we can be relevant and we can go into large multi-location bids for customers. And now we can do 100% of the bid in many instances rather than just 65% or 70% of the bid on fixed infrastructure for broadband. So that's an important way that it helps us. And I think in particular, with our strength in the business market segment at AT&T, it's a natural pairing for us to be able to do that.
And then in the consumer space, preceding in markets where we know we're going to have fiber and being aggressive about our deployment to hold converged customers. That growth is really good growth because the transition is from a fixed broadband connection ultimately to a fiber connection, and that transition is a very profitable connection when you have a converged customer in that situation. And then in the markets where we know we're not going to be in fiber in the near term, finding the right segments to attack that we can hold for a long haul with fixed wireless and wireless together as a converged customer. That's not every customer in those markets. There are clearly what I would call the scaled broadband profiles that are going to probably use terrestrial connections to ultimately sustain themselves, but there's good places we can hunt in those markets that I believe a fixed wireless with wireless combination is a good combination. We've been able to open up and expand that market and grow in that space to drive some return off that spectrum as well.
On your second question about copper retirement, look, probably 5 years ago, if I were letting you in on the inside baseball and started to kind of set the direction on where we're going to go on aggressively shutting down Legacy infrastructure in this business, I would tell you, I probably got some looks across the table from individuals within the business and said, never going to happen. We're going to be with it a long time. And a big compliment to the team. It's like that's not an acceptable outcome. And went to work on what we needed to do to literally get to a path to shut down the infrastructure.
And to sit here today 5 years later and to have what we have in front of the FCC today is absolutely fantastic. It's the right moves for this country, because the old copper infrastructure does nobody any favors. It sucks a ton of power. We've got buildings being cooled and switches that are running with a nominal number of customers on it. It's stuff that was built decades ago. It's not as secure and as robust, from a cybersecurity perspective, as today's technology can be when built properly. It doesn't offer the same level of resiliency and services that we're building into networks today.
Our capabilities of putting resilience in the wireless network that is actually able to withstand other problems that copper, especially aged copper, can't withstand is clearly there and advanced features that are available on these networks are better. So this is a good thing for the customer, it's a good thing for U.S. competitiveness, and it's a good thing for AT&T, because we need to get those costs out. We need to get that infrastructure shut down, and we need to remove the distraction from the business, all the mainframes that go with it and all the business processes that have been built up over decades of regulation that have been layered on that.
And as you heard Pascal mention, 30% of our wire centers are on a definitive schedule for shutdown right now. And we have a path to do more. And I think you're going to see, in the next couple of months, even more activity moving forward. This FCC order that came out is a very strong order in my view. It gives a very good road map for how this should work out. We have a very receptive commission to getting this work done. We are mobilized at AT&T to take advantage of these things. We have a good organization built around it.
The leadership of that organization has been doing a nice job getting the company in tune with everything we need to do. It's not what I would call really sexy work to shut this stuff down, but it's essential work, and that includes what do you do with the copper when you're done with it and how do you get it out and make sure that you monetize it and do all the things you need to do. And we are planning all the way through that and have every intention of being in a really great place by the time we get to 2030. And those cost improvements and that structure is all forecasted in our going-forward guidance that we've given you.
The next question comes from Mike Ng with Goldman Sachs.
I have 2, if I could, as well. First, for John, in prepared remarks, you talked about shifting away from device subsidies, competing more on service. Will that be more gradual as OneConnect gains traction? Or do you expect a harder shift away from subsidies that we may see across 2.0 plans as well?
And then for Pascal, it was encouraging to see the reiteration of the guidance. You talked about accelerating growth in 2Q. I was just wondering if you could provide some color on key drivers for the EBITDA acceleration throughout the year. How do you expect the Lumen opportunity's cost efficiencies and kind of new plan traction just impacting the curve of growth throughout the year?
Mike, the short answer to your question is it's a balancing of the portfolio is the way I think about it. Our portfolio right now is over-indexed on device. And it's not that devices aren't important to customers; and to certain segments of customers, they will continue and remain to be important, but I think we need a more balanced portfolio that makes sure that the customer understands the inherent value of the network underneath the relationship and the true amount that they're paying for that fantastic service that they depend on every day and that they're not clouded by the difference of what they're paying for device versus network. And I think we have an opportunity to really help people understand the inherent value of what's in the network and what's the difference between what they need to do to access the network.
And there are other things besides devices that customers get value out of. And putting that at the forefront to ensure that customers have choice about how they choose to allocate those perks and those benefits and things that are important to their loyalty over time, I think we can do a better job of balancing that portfolio, and I think we will gradually work our way through this over time. I don't think this is throwing a switch, but you've got to get a foundational capability out there in which to work from, and OneConnect is a foundational capability that we can iterate on and work from in the coming quarters to continue to work to balance that portfolio.
I could probably answer your second question for you, because everybody in the company is laser-focused on this particular issue, but my voice is tired, I'm going to let Pascal do it for you.
Sure. Mike, pleasure to talk to you. Going into Q2 and improving for the rest of the year, we expect both service revenues and EBITDA to accelerate gradually. There are a few factors at play. One, in our wireless business, we expect to continue to drive growth in converged relationships, including wireless. That should drive improvement. Plus we have pricing actions that begins to take effect in April. For Q2, it's going to be not the entire quarter that benefits, but most of it. And it will get, for the rest of the year, full quarter benefits of those pricing actions.
Also, we're scaling Lumen. We said coming into the year that Lumen early on, we're going to have to invest significantly in order to stand up that organization, in order to drive incremental fiber penetration into their footprint and to really set up ourselves. That process began in earnest in Q1, we'll continue. But I expect every month that passes, the performance of the Lumen asset will continue to get better. We're going to continue to see improvement in fiber net adds and converged relationships.
Also, as you get through in terms of free cash flow, Q1, as a reminder, is always seasonally low for a couple of reasons. One, you have our annual incentive comp payment in Q1. That's a meaningful cash draw in Q1. Two, majority of the devices from the holiday season are paid in Q1. Those headwinds go away. And you also saw in this Q1 that we stepped up our -- we began the step-up of our capital, and that was also a headwind. As we get through the balance of the year, I expect pretty much the same seasonal patterns that we've seen in free cash flow, and we remain confident. All in all, look, even at Q2, I think you should see meaningful improvement in our service revenue trajectory as well as our EBITDA trajectory. So I feel really good about where we are and the pacing for the rest of the year.
The last question today comes from Peter Supino with Wolfe Research.
Question about the broadband market. AT&T reported 2.5 million DSL subs, and that's been a really valuable feedstock for the fiber business over time. It's a great thing that you have a long-term declining business that is going to stop diluting your growth rate over the next couple of years. I'm wondering if the fade of the DSL business in general, including and beyond your own, affects your view of the broadband market over the next couple of years, whether that relates to fiber volume growth or fiber pricing or FWA pricing, all the above?
Peter, I don't know that the fate of the DSL base in and of itself causes me to think differently about things. I'd probably offer a couple of observations on the market. One is that base is getting pretty tiny at this juncture. And I think one of the things we should inherently understand is our fiber growth numbers have been relatively consistent over the last number of years. Our ability to find DSL customers that want to be fiber customers is a much more difficult prospect these days, because there really aren't many DSL customers left. And so when you look at our growth numbers on fiber, the question that was asked earlier about new accounts, they're new accounts. They're customers coming in. And that's that new, new dynamic I talked about. And we're getting better at picking up those new, new customers.
And I think that the other observation I would give is -- and you've got certain parts of the DSL base that, in some cases, customers self-selected. They may be in a situation where it's the best that they can get in a not very good set of choices. Some of that's being taken care of today. That's what satellite serves well. That's what BEAD addresses. But there's also the price-sensitive segment, because in many cases, people could buy that maybe at a little bit lower price than other broadband alternatives in the market. And so the place I think about where we naturally need to mature at AT&T, that I want to make sure we do well, is we should be able to be a man for all seasons. We should be able to handle every customer, one that wants a premium, high-powered, most capable service around, and one that wants efficient, more cost-effective, more value-driven offering.
And fiber, when we have it in there, certainly allows us to do that given the marginal cost structure, unprofitable at any point, and that's maybe different than DSL. I mean, DSL was a high-cost infrastructure to manage. And I've shared with you that when we get fiber in, our operating costs are dramatically reducing in these geographies now. And when we get the copper turned down, it's going to be even more. So we should be a little bit better on making sure we're hitting all segments of the market with our offerings. And hence, the question earlier about why OneConnect and why these things we can drive value into some of these segments and make sure that we're monetizing in an effective way on those price options for customers.
And I think we can be a little bit better at picking up some of that price-sensitive segment, not only with a better portfolio of fiber pricing as well as what we do with fixed wireless in places where that performance is adequate given the nature of the household, the size of the household or the demands of the particular customers in those households, and you can maybe drive a little bit more of a value profile and what you're offering in that customer base to match that as well.
And then finally, I'll say this also lines up with the reality of where the broadband market is, in my view, which is getting from 0% to 40% penetration as we build fiber is really important. That's a really good return when we do that. And we're doing that incredibly well and very effectively. And that hasn't changed as we've opened up new footprint and accelerated our build. We see our path to 40% as being really good, really strong. We continue to even refine it, get a little bit better, although I'm pretty impressed, I've shared with you before that we're probably a year faster than what we expected we would be in the original business case, and that helps drive returns up higher.
But getting from 40% to 50% is different. It's a different set of plays that are required than getting from 0% to 40%. And the reason I bring that up is because I think it's that value segment from 40% to 50% that's an important segment for us moving forward to add new accounts that we can do on an accretive basis. And so for those of you that are looking at new accounts, that's a driver of it. For those of you who are looking at ARPU temperament, look, it's entirely economically rational and value creating and the right thing for AT&T to do to get from 40% to 50%, even if it means we take some ARPU dilution to do that. And I think in the size of our base today and what's going on, you're going to see a little bit more of that. And some of that directs to that customer base that was that DSL holdout base that you're referring to that you need to get really good at figuring out how to pick up with the more value-sensitive, price-sensitive parts of the base.
Operator, that's it. You can go ahead and close out the call.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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AT&T — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
AT&T — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: Gesamterlöse stiegen um 2,9% YoY; Service-Umsatz +1,4% YoY.
- Adj. EBITDA: +2,3% YoY, Marge bei 37,4% (-30 Basispunkte).
- Free Cash Flow: $2,5 Mrd., am oberen Ende der $2–2,5 Mrd.-Erwartung; Q2-Erwartung $4–4,5 Mrd., FY $18 Mrd.+.
- Net Adds / Fiber: 584.000 Advanced-Internet-Nettozugänge (inkl. Fixed Wireless); organische Advanced-Home-Internet-Nettozugänge 512.000; Lumen-Akquisition: +1,1 Mio. Kunden, >4 Mio. Standorte.
- Ergebnis je Aktie: Adjusted EPS $0,57 (+~12%); FY-Range $2,25–2,35.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Investitionsfokus: Priorität auf schnellerem Faser‑ und 5G‑Ausbau; Ziel: 60M+ Fiber-Standorte bis Ende des Jahrzehnts.
- Konvergenz & OneConnect: Strategie, Kunden durch kombinierte Angebote (Wireless+Home) zu binden; OneConnect als flaches Abo‑Produkt zur Förderung von Cross‑Sell und geringerer Churn.
- Offenes, AI‑bereites Netzwerk: Re‑Architektur des Kerns, APIs und AI‑Betrieb sollen Flexibilität, Partnerintegration und Steuerbarkeit erhöhen; EchoStar‑Spektrum ergänzt Kapazität.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Umsatz/EBITDA: Konsolidiertes Service‑Revenue‑Wachstum in niedrigem einstelligen Bereich; Adjusted EBITDA +3–4% FY.
- Advanced Connectivity: Service‑Umsatz >5% und EBITDA >6% erwartet; Lumen trägt 2026 operativ nur immateriell zu EBITDA bei (vorläufige Investitionsphase).
- Verschuldung & Rückgaben: Net‑Debt/Adj. EBITDA 2,71x Ende Q1; temporärer Anstieg auf ~3,2x nach EchoStar, Rückgang auf ~3,0x Ende 2026 und Ziel ~2,5x in ~3 Jahren; $8 Mrd. Aktienrückkauf für 2026 geplant, >$45 Mrd. bis 2028.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- OneConnect & Churn: Nachfrage initial moderat; Management erwartet iterativen Rollout zur Stärkung der Konvergenz, konkrete kurzfr. Subskriptions‑Prognosen wurden nicht genannt.
- EchoStar / Offenes Netzwerk: EchoStar‑Spektrum soll Performance und AIA‑Penetration verbessern; Management skizziert API/Software‑Nutzen, bleibt bei konkreten Timing‑Nutzen zurückhaltend.
- Lumen‑Integration & Kupferabschaltung: Fragen zu Tempo der Netzausweitung, Kostenaufbau und regulatorischem Support; Management betont FCC‑Rückhalt, erwartet fortlaufende Kostenreduktionen durch Kupfer‑Shutdown.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Call bestätigt die Investitions‑ und Konvergenzstrategie: solides Q1‑Wachstum, starke Fiber‑Nettozugänge und klare Guidance. Kurzfristig drücken Integration und Ausbau die EBITDA‑Dynamik, langfristig sollte die größere Fiber‑Basis Margen, ARPU‑Upside und geringeren Churn liefern — Risiko: Integrationskosten, Leverage‑Pfad und die Geschwindigkeit, mit der neue Produkte (OneConnect, AIA, EchoStar‑Nutzung) skaliert werden.
AT&T — NSR/BCG Global Connectivity Leaders Conference - New York
1. Question Answer
I want to say thank you so much for joining us. You guys know Igal as Chief Technology Officer at AT&T. A combination of scheduling conflicts and war and airplanes and government funding have left us doing this virtually. But we really appreciate AT&T making the effort to be part of our conference again this year. So thank you, Igal, for doing this.
Thank you for having me. Good morning, everyone.
So Igal, and I'm here joined on stage with my BCG counterpart, Simonas. And I'll do maybe the first part and Sim will do the second part. But I guess, Igal, I know you're at an off-site right now.
But one of the things that John Stankey really made a priority at AT&T was kind of slimming down and simplifying the AT&T business. And I think that we heard that some of your competitors earlier today want to follow that playbook. And I guess from a technology standpoint, what are the new priorities at AT&T? Is it wireless coverage? Is it wireless capacity? Is it fiber network availability? Is it fixed wireless access? Is it slimming down the business even further through efficiency initiatives? What are the kind of things that a guy in your seat is working on right now to kind of fulfill the AT&T vision?
Yes. Thank you, Dave. And maybe before I start answering that first question, I need to call everyone's attention to our safe harbor statement. I think you're seeing this on the screen. And it says that some of the things that I'm going to share today are forward-looking and as such, they're subject to risk and uncertainty and that the results may differ materially.
I also want to remind everyone that we are in a quiet period of Auction 113. And as a result of this, unfortunately, I won't be able to discuss that. So now that we got that off the table, we can -- I can try to address your question.
So that was really a mistake on my part, Igal. And so I feel bad about me.
No. It's okay.
But I'm glad we got that out of the way. So thank you.
Exactly. Exactly. That's the important thing. Well, I think, Dave, obviously, I'm sure you're anticipating the answer that says it's all important, all of the characteristic of the network that you described are important, all need to be addressed. And obviously, we are addressing all of them.
The way we think about this is like everything else in AT&T is through the lens of our customers or a customer-first perspective. And if you ask customers, I'm sure they're going to tell you that the first thing or the most important for them is to actually get on the Internet. So they're able to make a phone call or send a text message or do an e-mail or whatever they need to do over the Internet. I think they're also caring about consistency. Is their experience over the network is consistent? So things like drop calls. AT&T has the lowest drop calls rate in the U.S.
So that kind of tell you about how we think about reliability. We are all privileged here to serve first responders, the first responders of America. We're building and operating the FirstNet network. That tells you that the bar is even higher when it comes to reliability and how we think about this. Now at the same time, you mentioned capacity. Capacity is really important with the growing demand for connectivity and AI and video all traversing the wireless network.
As we are going through our wireless modernization, think about the fact that we are putting to work all of our mid-band. We are simplifying the mid-band spectrum. We are simplifying the configuration in all of our cell sites. We are opening up the architecture so that can help us to drive efficiency up and cost down. So this is how we think about all of those characteristics and how we're serving customers.
I think that it's also an interesting optimization problem. And as such, AI is a great capability to help us to think through this in terms of how do you bring in different attribute as customer experience, devices, reliability, coverage, capacity, other use cases and how that help us to guide our investment and how we're thinking about proportionately investing in the various capabilities that you mentioned.
So thank you for that, Igal. So those are the kind of the whats, but I'm interested in a little bit on the hows. So I think that one of the bigger events that's occurred with AT&T, there's been a couple. One big one was the acquisition of the fiber asset from Lumen. Another was the acquisition of spectrum from EchoStar. And I think that there's a lot of question about how these pieces fit together, the fiber, the fixed wireless access and the wireless network. And which one takes priority? I'm assuming your answer is going to be everything takes priority. But what is the real answer? And how do you come to that answer in terms of what you decide to spend your time and energy on?
Yes. Great question, Dave. Maybe zooming out a little bit to where you started. What we're actually doing is building 2 scaled network platform, right? We have a modern, open, nationwide 5G wireless network, and we're also building a metropolitan multi-gig fiber network that is already covering 36 million living units, which no one else has that size of a fiber network and no one is building at the rate -- at the pace that we're building our fiber network.
And that leads to the true benefits that are 2 in my mind. One is owner economics. Our ability to build and operate both a wireless and a fiber network gives us a lot of flexibility in owner economics. The other thing is actually supporting our overall strategy, which is all around convergence. So the way we are thinking about this is that we have a converged network strategy.
One of the things we like to say about our network is that we're actually building a fiber network that has different access technology hanging off it. Think about the ability for us to optimize our fiber routes and building in a way that supports 3-or-more distinct use cases, consumer broadband, wireless backhauling, enterprise services. But the magic doesn't stop there. Historically, all of those services, the way they would converge in our core network was deep in our core backbone.
And they reroute or traverse our technical spaces or central offices through different architecture and different infrastructure. We are changing this through our network modernization. We are pushing out all of that convergence to the edge of our network to each one of our central offices. So now you can imagine how each one of our services is actually running on the same converged and intelligent architecture and infrastructure.
And now let's talk about fixed wireless because you brought this up. Clearly, when you have a fiber assets in 32 markets that will always be our lead offer. This is what we want to take to our customers because I don't think anyone is going to argue with the fact that fiber is the best broadband technology. It's symmetrical, it's reliable, it's doable. However, there are different scenarios in which either we don't have fiber assets or we know that we're going to come into a new neighborhood or a new area, but that's going to take us a year or 2 to build our fiber then or we need the cache product to get people off our copper infrastructure, small, medium businesses or there's an interesting segment of customers that we prefer to go with other type of services.
For all of that, we have our fixed wireless service, which is a great product, addressing all of the use cases that I just mentioned. You mentioned the fact that we acquired more spectrum in a matter of weeks, we were able to push out through a short-term spectrum management lease, all of the additional 3.45 throughout our network through 23,000 cell sites. That added capacity that opened up a lot of new geographies and created a more addressable market for fixed wireless capabilities.
Let me -- so there's been a conversation here a little bit today, some mixed feelings about the enterprise market opportunity. And as the largest enterprise provider in the United States today, this AI evolution from a B2B standpoint, I'm an old guy. I watched the Internet lead to tiers with millions of bankruptcies. I saw the cloud evolve and no one made money except Google and Amazon and Microsoft and Oracle.
And so now we're talking about this new AI Internet that's supposed to be coming into being. And there's been some players who've been noisy about it. I would say that AT&T and others have been were quiet about it. Is it a real thing? Is it a construction project that's a one-off? Or is it something that's real?
First of all, I think we're living in the most remarkable period, technology period that I can remember, and it's really exciting to be part of it. To your question, I will probably take this further out a little bit than just the enterprise space. And I will tell you that I don't think we're sitting here today and seeing a complete difference about how the network is operating or what kind of AI workloads we are seeing traversing.
But we're absolutely seeing signals. And what I mean by this is all of us are using AI capabilities on our smartphones. We may start wearing all kind of AI devices. The characteristic of those applications and devices is a little bit different. They are more heavy on what we call the upstream side of the network. We have a couple of examples of autonomous cars or robotaxis that driving over our network for sure in the training phase. We are seeing the ratio of upstream be above 50%, which is something that we never saw before.
We are absolutely seeing growing demand for high-speed, low latency services, 400 gig with the enterprise space, absolutely seeing this happening. If you think about agents, I'm sure everyone heard about agentic AI and with the proliferation of agents, how this is going to start behaving over the network. They don't work 8 to 5. They work 24/7. We don't know at what time of the day or the night they will operate. The traffic might be east-west, which is different than how traffic is behaving today.
So I think there's all kind of exciting capabilities and demand that is starting to show up. Think about physical AI, autonomous cars, drones, humanoid robots, all kind of other capabilities. They're all going to drive for different capabilities and characteristics from the network. What I am very pleased with is the fact that I believe we have all of the assets that allows us to be AI-ready or build an AI-ready network.
We have the right holding of low band for sure, with the add of the 600 megahertz, which is very useful for upstream services over the wireless network. If you move to an open architecture, our ability to adapt in real time to different usage characteristic of [indiscernible] in real time is something that we're going to get better over time.
Our symmetric broadband with our fiber services to people's home or offices is going to be extremely important when you think about all of those upstream usages. Our ability, and we are continuing investment in building high speeds and low latency capabilities in each one of our metros, bringing this up to 400 gig and above this over time is going to be critical for many of those enterprises to connect with hyperscalers. We already have fiber connection to 600 data centers in the U.S. That gives our customers the ability to see and run their AI workloads or capabilities in different locations.
They just need us to be there with providing them high-performing networking, whether it's high speed, high capacity and low latency. So all in all, I think we are in a very exciting time. Maybe another example to see how convergence is coming to life. I talked about those physical AI devices or our capabilities. Many of them may demand what we call deterministic network. We are uniquely positioned to provide deterministic experience all the way from the device over the wireless network through the transport and follow their context for AI models no matter where they are. So as I said, I think we have all of the assets in place, and we are uniquely positioned to really be ready for this AI-ready era.
And building on that, you've mentioned a lot about your capabilities facing outward. Internally, how have you used AI in the network operations space? And what kind of advantages are you seeing versus the complexity that has been present in the past?
First of all, I think we're all privileged to be in a company that actually established a Chief Data Office more than a decade ago. And we went through big data to machine learning and AI. And obviously, when the new capabilities of generative AI showed up 3 years ago, the team was able to be one of the early movers to help us to adopt those technologies at scale across the companies.
We all have access to capabilities, whether it's in software development, whether it's in day-to-day work, we all have access to the latest models and the latest capabilities and across the company, no matter if it's in customer service or fraud detection or in finance or in other areas, capabilities are being built to the benefit of operating our company.
On the network side, we've been building machine learning and AI capabilities for years in the network space. No doubt that 2 things help us to accelerate this. One, obviously, the advancement in AI capabilities. The other part is our move into an open architecture. It allows us to have more structured data model that's flowing up into models, and it helps us to take action, what we call in our terminology closed loop in an easier way, follow intent and being able to build modules, software modules and AI modules that helps us to operate our network, whether it's energy savings, which, again, we've been doing for years, like what we call cell site sleep where you take down carriers when you don't need them in order to save.
The ability to use newer model help us to increase this by 20% or 30%, the efficiency of those models, self-optimized networks. We built what I would consider probably the most advanced 3D rays tracing model, which allows us to really have a model of all of the propagation of all of our cell sites. So think about the disruption in our network, whether it's a fiber cut or a weather event, the ability of the network in very close to real time to readapt the tilts and the ability of our network to readjust itself, so there's no customer impact has been increased phenomenally through, again, the advancement of our model.
So we are using this across the board, mainly in the RAN space because clearly, this is the area that we are spending the majority of our capital. So we've been engaging on those models and capabilities for years. And again, we were able to take advantage through very unique skills that we have internally and the newer model to actually improve significantly existing models and create new ones to the benefit of our network.
And you mentioned that you're building an AI-ready network. And as we look forward into the future, there's conversations around 6G enabling AI, AI moving to the edge. How is that, if at all, changing your thinking for the longer term?
Well, that was the conversation of the day at Mobile World Congress. I don't know how many of you are attending there. Here's how I think about this because I think it's an important question. And I want to unpack a couple of those conversations. First of all, about 6G. I think the cycle of Gs over the years was instrumental to the success of the wireless industry and the ability to connect 7 billion or 8 billion people around the world to the Internet.
However, we just described the fact that the advancement we are seeing in AI. In a world in which every month or 2, a new language model or foundational model is getting dropped at us, I don't think we, as an industry, can talk about what we think our industry is going to enable in 2030. That doesn't work with each other. And if you think about the state of the architecture of wireless today, it's already based on software. It's based on openness, AI, cloud-native infrastructure.
None of those technology domains live in 5- or 10-year cycles. So I think the first thing we need to do as an industry is completely decouple the Gs or the cycle of the Gs and our ability to innovate. We need to move to a continuous innovation and continuous progress and being able to consume new capabilities and innovation as it becomes available. So that's the first thing that we have to do as an industry, and that's part of our Open RAN strategy. That is exactly what we're doing.
To the second part of your question about how far is the edge, which I think that is the question because there's no doubt that AI is going to be embedded into wireless network, and we're going to call it AI native and combining the physical space with the intelligence of the network. This is all true. The question is, one, the moment we have a software layer, the moment we moved away from purpose-built baseband or the infrastructure we have at the bottom of the tower to a compute-based platform and software, we disaggregated both.
Then over time, we have full flexibility to decide what is the right compute that we want to use at that cell site to serve our customers, to support our spectrum or whatever we want to do in terms of innovation. The second part of this is how far is the edge? And how do you want to serve some of the use cases with compute and intelligence? My view on this is probably a little bit different than what you may have heard otherwise. I think in the U.S. where I think the number is just this year, $600 billion or $650 billion of investment just in data centers just in 2026.
I think the proliferation of compute and high-performing compute across the nation in all metros is just happening with a software layer on top of this, with the tools that developers need. So I am not sure that there's much value in extending that compute all the way to the far edge just to save another millisecond of latency or 2 millisecond of latency. So I think the U.S. perspective on this is a little bit different. We want to take advantage of our nationwide modern wireless network, our deep fiber build and being able to create that deterministic experience between whatever use cases comes and help them to intelligently connect to the right model that they use, the context or the infrastructure that they need because that's going to be heavily distributed across the U.S. So I think the U.S. is a little bit different from other countries and other perspective just because of how deep out there compute is being built.
So shifting gears for the last topic. We've talked about the terrestrial networks. Thinking about the stars in the sky, what is the role of satellite? And how do you view Starlink as a potential competitor for your terrestrial network and the D2C capabilities and how do you compete with those as well?
So I think, first of all, D2C as a technology evolution in our industry is one of the most important innovation that we're seeing. I still remember the day that the folks from AST SpaceMobile walked into our office 7, 8 years ago with that concept that we're going to have an antenna in the sky and it's going to work on our regular phones. And yes, some of us rolled our eyes and say, what? Really? But here we are. It's actually working. It is -- from our perspective, it is absolutely a complementary service and capabilities to the terrestrial network.
I think it has placed -- we have the largest wireless network in the U.S., but still we cannot cover every square inch of America. And therefore, our ability to provide our customers with service no matter where they are, whether they're hiking in Grand Canyon or doing something else off the grid is a great opportunity for us in terms of our strategy around seamless connectivity and enabled connectivity to our customers no matter where they are.
Is this Starlink is competitive to terrestrial network? First of all, we are partnering with AST SpaceMobile, and we think the technology that they're going to bring to life and the way they're building their antenna in the skies is very unique, and we have a lot of trust in their architecture. I don't see anytime soon in terms of the beam creation or indoor experience, I don't see how D2C from the sky becomes a true competitive offering. It is absolutely -- I don't think I'm telling you something you haven't heard. This is absolutely something that we and the industry are looking as a complementary capabilities that is needed, and it's a great innovation. And that's going to provide a lot of value and benefits to our customers.
Thank you, Igal. I think those are the topics we wanted to discuss with you today. Really appreciate your time, and it's great speaking with you again.
Thank you so much for having me.
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AT&T — NSR/BCG Global Connectivity Leaders Conference - New York
AT&T — NSR/BCG Global Connectivity Leaders Conference - New York
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: AT&T betont eine «Convergence»-Strategie: zwei skalierte Plattformen (nationwide 5G und ein metropolitanes Multi‑Gig‑Fibernetz) kombiniert mit offener, cloud‑nativer Architektur und KI‑gestützter Automatisierung, um Zuverlässigkeit, Kapazität und neue Upstream‑Use‑Cases zu bedienen.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Plattformen: Aufbau einer landesweiten 5G‑Lösung und eines Fiber‑Netzes, das laut Aussage bereits 36 Mio. Wohneinheiten abdeckt; Fiber bleibt das Lead‑Produkt im Angebot.
- Spectrum & RAN: Mid‑Band‑Vereinfachung und schnelle Aktivierung von 3.45 GHz über ~23.000 Sites per kurzfristigem Management‑Lease zur Kapazitätserhöhung und Adressmarktausweitung für Fixed Wireless.
- AI‑Betrieb: Einsatz von ML/Generative‑AI für Closed‑Loop‑Betrieb, 3D‑Ray‑Tracing und Netzwerk‑Self‑Optimization; Effizienzgewinne bei bestimmten Modulen werden mit ~20–30% angegeben.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Operative Details: Konkrete Zahlen zur Reichweite (36 Mio. LUs), schnelle Spectrum‑Rollout‑Maßnahme (3.45 GHz auf ~23.000 Sites) und Verbindungen zu ~600 Data‑Centern wurden genannt; es gab jedoch keine neue finanzielle Guidance oder konkrete KPIs jenseits operativer Kapazitäts‑ und Architekturhinweise.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Priorisierung: Nachfrage, ob Fiber, Fixed Wireless oder Wireless Vorrang hat – Management erklärt, beide Plattformen sind komplementär, Fiber als Lead‑Offer, FWA für Lücken/Übergangsphasen.
- AI & Enterprise: Skepsis zur Monetarisierung von AI‑Netzwerkdiensten; Antwort: steigende Upstream‑Last, deterministische Netze und 400G‑Ausbau sollen das Angebot stützen, konkrete Umsatzpfade blieben allgemein.
- Edge/6G & Satellit: Diskussion über „wie weit das Edge gehen muss“ (US‑zentrierte Sicht: dichtes DC‑Ökosystem reduziert Bedarf für extrem farbigen Edge) und Satelliten/D2C als komplementär, nicht kurzfristig als vollwertiger Ersatz.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Für Aktionäre ist das Event operativ‑strategisch: AT&T stellt Infrastruktur‑Skalierung, Open‑Architecture und KI‑Betrieb in den Vordergrund. Es liefert konkrete Asset‑Zahlen, aber keine geänderte finanzielle Guidance; die Story bleibt eine Investition in Konvergenz, Kapazität und Effizienz, mit mittelfristigem Upside, aber ohne neue kurzfristige Umsatz‑ oder Margenversprechen.
AT&T — Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media
1. Question Answer
Okay. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our conference this year. I'm Bryan Kraft. I cover media and telecom for Deutsche Bank on the equity side. I'd like to welcome everyone to the conference.
And I'd like to introduce our first speaker today, which is Pascal Desroches, who's the Chief Financial Officer of AT&T. Pascal, welcome.
Good morning, everybody.
So I think you've got some safe harbor language to talk about before we get started?
Sure thing. Please refer to our website for our safe harbor statement. Also we are in the quiet period for Spectrum Auction 113. So we -- so I will not be commenting or answering any questions about that.
Okay. Forgive me, I'm being blinded by the sunlight right now coming through the window. But why don't we just start off with a high-level question? I think last year was a very active year for the company. In addition to just the normal running of the business, you announced the EchoStar and the Lumen deals, increased the fiber build pace, accelerated the fixed wireless access customer growth pace, and also made really a lot of progress against retiring legacy network assets, among other things. What's the focus in 2026? What are you and the rest of the management team really focused on accomplishing this year?
If I take a step back, last year was an incredible year, and it's -- honestly, the last 5 years, I'm really proud of what we've done as an organization to reposition the company. We had, over the period, significantly expanded our fiber footprint, significantly improved our wireless network and our spectrum holdings. And last year, we saw an opportunity to accelerate the pace of our fiber deployment and to continue to bolster our spectrum. And that's what we did with those 2 transactions.
And we are now in a position where, this year, we have all the assets that we need in place and you could expect us to focus on executing. In particular, we closed on the Lumen transaction in early February. And we are -- we welcomed over 2,000 employees. And we're in the midst of starting to integrate those assets. In particular, we are adding resources to handle early increases in volume that we see relative to this time last year for the Lumen assets. And so we're doing that. We expect to close on EchoStar early this year.
And importantly, in our organic business, last year, we passed over 3.5 million passings. This year, we are stepping up our efforts and we expect to end this year organically in our own footprint passing 4 million fiber locations, at a pace of 4 million fiber locations as we're exiting this year. That's in addition to what we expect to be a significant contribution from both the acquired Lumen assets and our GigaPower assets. So as we exit this year, we expect to be building fiber at a 5 million passings pace. We expect to be at over 40 million locations as we exit 2026.
So this is a year where we are integrating, we are welcoming over 1 million Lumen customers into our footprint on the 4 million passings. And it's about execution. What's great about where we are is that we're in a position to take share by adding by -- through the expansion of our fiber footprint, we are well positioned to drive convergence. So you should -- that is going to be our main play as we execute this year and the next several years.
I'd like to dig a little deeper into the Lumen deal since you just completed the acquisition of the Mass Market assets, as you mentioned. First quarter will be your first quarter reporting with Lumen, Incorporated. Can you walk us through the next steps? What does that integration look like? How will it impact 1Q results, if at all? And you had previously mentioned that you plan to bring an equity partner in to invest there. Do you have any updates on when you expect to have that completed? And maybe just walk us through your reasoning for the equity partner.
Sure thing. On Lumen, like said, we welcomed over 2,000 employees with the closing in early February. Right now we are starting to stand up the organization. What that means is a big part of our efforts will be focused on increasing penetration. The Lumen assets come with over 4 million passings and about 1 million subscribers. It's about 25% penetrated. I compare that to our AT&T footprint where we are penetrated 40%. And so on a consolidated basis, I would expect us to take a step back in penetration because we're acquiring a business that is less penetrated than ours.
With that said, we're spending a lot of money marketing to those customers, driving increased penetration and also trying to drive increased convergence. Within the AT&T footprint, 42% of our fiber customers also take our wireless product. In the Lumen footprint, it's less than 20%. So there's an enormous opportunity to drive convergence in the Lumen footprint. We're investing to drive that. And so in the quarter, you would expect both our convergence rate and our penetration rate on a consolidated basis to decline a bit because of that phenomenon.
Also on a reported basis, we're going to consolidate Lumen, the subscribers are going to be treated as a base adjustment so that -- and in Q1, I've said this previously, but I think it's worth underscoring, we would anticipate that our EBITDA performance and our free cash flow performance for Q1 will be less than what we expect for the full year. For EBITDA, the way to think about it is low single digits. And for free cash flow, we expect $2 billion to $2.5 billion, all consistent with the guidance we gave at year-end when we started the year.
Some factors to keep in mind as you are modeling Q1 is that Q1 is going to have integration costs associated with the acquisition. There was a onetime benefit last year in Q1 of $100 million. That alone is about 100 basis points of growth. We also expect transaction costs associated with the Lumen transaction to hit free cash flows and earnings. And so all told, Q1 will run at a lower rate in terms of EBITDA performance.
Similarly, when you think about revenues for Q1, both our fiber and our wireless revenues, it's important to keep in mind that, for the full year, we are guiding to over 30% advanced home Internet revenue growth for the year. For Q1, I would anticipate that run rate to be less. Why? Because we're only -- we have 2 of the 3 months of the quarter. And for the rest of the year, you'll have a -- it will be consolidated for all the periods.
Similarly, on wireless, a big -- this year, we expect to grow 2% to 3% wireless service revenues. I would expect our wireless service revenue in Q1 to be less than the full year run rate because we are -- over the course of the year, we expect to drive significant convergence in the Lumen footprint. And so that will gradually build as we make our way through the year. Also in Q1, the new Lumen customers, we proactively gave them a convergence discount, those who were AT&T wireless customers, we proactively gave them a discount in the first quarter.
So all told, the first quarter is going to have a lot of moving pieces to keep in mind as you're modeling. But for the year, we feel really good about where we -- how we're positioned. In the assets, it's early -- the Lumen assets, it's early days, but I feel really good about the demand in the marketplace for that.
That's very helpful. Maybe we could talk for a minute about the new segment reporting. You announced that beginning with first quarter earnings, you plan to report results in 2 segments: Advanced Connectivity and Legacy Communications. What led you to decide on this new structure? Why now? Why is this a better reporting structure for AT&T's investors than your current segmentation and disclosure?
When we -- the last 3 years, internally, when we set our goal to be out of copper by the end of the decade, we started to develop the internal mechanisms for separating the business out between the legacy components and the balance of the business. And it was important to us because all of our investments, all the returns that we were trying to drive were really towards fiber and 5G. In contrast, the legacy parts of the business, we knew at some point that would ultimately decline to 0.
And we've been looking at this and we thought it was an important step forward in allowing us to do 2 things very well. One, to show investors the returns that we are generating from the significant investments we've been making in 5G and fiber. And two, it will allow us to manage our legacy footprint much better and to show investors the progress we're making towards sunsetting our legacy footprint.
And importantly, many of the same metrics we provided you historically, you will continue to have. Even our wireless P&L, we will continue to show that supplementally for a period of time. So this was a way for us to really shine better light on the different components of the business, in particular as we -- our goal would be, as we exit this decade, to really be talking about our Advanced Connectivity business, because legacy will largely be gone.
Okay. Makes sense.
Bryan, I realize I didn't answer your question about why are we bringing in a network -- a partner for the Lumen assets?
Yes, thank you.
With regards to that, it's important to keep in mind, the assets, in addition to the 4 million plus passings that we are acquiring, we are also planning to significantly expand the footprint in the Lumen territories, the historical 11-state footprint. And think about that as doubling that footprint over the next 5 years.
So we thought it was really important to, on the one hand, continue to deliver returns to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends over the next 5 years, while at the same time building out that footprint. And we thought it was a sensible approach to bring in a partner to help finance that.
And any update on timing or expectations as to when that could happen?
We expect that that should be completed by the second half of the year.
Okay. So maybe moving on to the growth outlook. So over the past 5 years, growth in wireless, and broadband, has been driven by multiple factors across both volume and price. As you look ahead over the 3-year guidance period, how do you expect these growth drivers to shift, if at all? On the volume side, what are the major growth drivers for AT&T? And where do you see opportunities to increase share in different segments of the market?
Just to level-set, we ended last year with 32 million fiber passings. With the closing of the Lumen transaction, we are now over 36 million. We expect to end this year at 40 million fiber passings. So incrementally, for this year, we are adding over 8 million fiber locations. With each of those fiber locations comes a convergence opportunity. You should expect us to drive incremental share take in -- where we are expanding our footprint, plus the build that -- the existing build, which there's still opportunity to drive further penetration.
And that's going to drive not only fiber volumes, but that will drive also wireless. I mentioned earlier, our penetration in the Lumen footprint, of convergence, the convergence in the Lumen footprint is significantly less than our own. And so you should expect us to really focus on driving incremental convergence in that footprint. So those 2 things should allow us to really drive share take in fiber and mobility.
And our guidance is predicated on much more of a volume growth and, to a lesser extent, pricing. But it doesn't mean that you're not going to see pricing in different parts of our portfolio for both wireless and fiber. In any given year, there are pricing actions where we believe we are conveying additional value to consumers. But at the same time, we are giving, when we're driving convergence, we're giving consumers discounts. So on a blended basis, we wouldn't expect a meaningful contribution from ARPU, for both wireless and fiber.
Okay. So kind of as we look forward, probably a shift versus the last couple of years, more volume both on the broadband side and the wireless side, a little less ARPU growth?
That's right.
Okay. Makes sense.
And as you -- the other thing to keep in mind, as you exit this year, I said this earlier, we're going to have -- we're going to be building at 5 million fiber locations. Again, incremental opportunity to drive convergence and footprint.
Okay. Great. Maybe we could talk about just market dynamics a little bit. Early last year, we started to see this increase in promotional intensity across the industry. That really continued throughout the year and arguably got a bit worse in 4Q. How would you characterize the health of the wireless and the broadband market today? Has anything changed in your view since the fourth quarter? And are year-to-date trends any different versus your expectations when you provided guidance in late January? And then maybe as part of that too, just how does pricing come into play in a competitive market where everyone is trying to battle for share right now?
Last year, in a year where we did see elevated competition -- and I think that elevated competition, there were several factors at play. First and foremost, I think overall, there were less new -- less addition net adds in the wireless industry. Why? I think immigration -- or the absence of immigration served as a real headwind. Also DOGE did play an impact on the level of volumes available across the industry. And for us, we were in a period where you had a higher percentage of our customers coming off of contracts. So all those things resulted in an elevated environment.
With that said, last year we grew wireless service revenues over 3%, we grew fiber revenues mid-teens, we grew margins and we grew EBITDA 3.6%. So a real solid year. And I would expect this year to be very similar. Our plans for the year were that we were going to be operating in an elevated environment -- an environment with elevated competition. So in that regard, we're going to have to compete based upon our own asset position, which gives us unique advantages.
Like I said earlier, we're going to lean into driving incremental fiber penetration through the Lumen footprint as well as through our incremental build and additional penetration of our existing footprint. And you should expect us in this environment to lean heavily on capitalizing on that unique advantage. Most of our promotional and investment dollars are going to go into servicing and growing our penetration in those areas and to drive incremental convergence.
And in terms of pricing actions, I would expect in any given year that there will be pricing -- pricing will be part of the mix, in instances where we do provide a customer with incremental value. So as an example, you change price -- you increase pricing, but you provide more hotspot minutes. And it's been a play that we've run. We are very careful whenever we go into any market -- any pricing action, to ensure that there is a reasonable value exchange.
Maybe we can talk about churn for a second. So postpaid phone churn increased pretty meaningfully across the industry in 2025, including for AT&T. How would you put this into context for investors? Are we likely to see churn continue to creep higher? Or do you think that we're at a sort of plateau at this point?
We came into the year, we assumed that we would be operating in an environment with elevated churn. Look, it's hard to pinpoint whether it's going to be high or low, but it could be a few basis points higher. But generally, I think what we saw last year is what we are planning for.
Okay. Similar environment, okay. On the fiber side, so AT&T has led the industry really in fiber investment over the past decade. It's your fastest-growing business both from a revenue and a subscriber perspective. Can you talk about your plans to invest in expanding the footprint further, longer-term targets for the business and the opportunity to grow this business in a way that keeps it a sizable contributor to revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow for the next several years?
Yes. As I mentioned earlier, this year, with the Lumen acquisition, we expect to end the year with over 40 million fiber passings. Over the next couple of years, we're going to be building at a pace of 5 million passings annually. So the 3-year period we provided guidance on, I would expect us to end that 3-year period with over 50 million fiber passings.
Similarly, in each and every year, I would expect us to continue to add converged relationships. And those 2 plays, driving convergence, increasing our passings and penetration, is really going to be the basis of competition and where I believe we will gain most -- we will drive most of our revenue growth.
In addition to that, we also, through the continued modernization of our wireless network, are offering fixed wireless in more and more locations. Where we don't -- our lead play is fiber and will remain fiber. Where we don't offer fiber, you should expect us to have fixed wireless as our Internet offer. And we have enormous opportunities to drive incremental fixed wireless subscribers because we're increasing our passings each year.
And last year, we added -- we now have over 1 million subscribers, and I would expect that to accelerate as we look ahead the next several years, because we're going to be increasing our passings to more and more locations where we don't have fiber. So the growth in our advanced home Internet is going to be driven both by fixed wireless and fiber growth, and principally, units, as we've talked about.
Right. Okay. I wanted to ask you about the cost to deploy fiber. I think the prevailing wisdom in the market has always been that the deeper AT&T, or really any other company, went with fiber upgrades, the higher the cost per passing and the lower return on investment, just since that lower -- those lower build cost areas would naturally be prioritized first. But if we look at your cost per passing, it's seen minimal inflation, and that's despite material inflation pressures over the last 5 years, obviously, in every area. Can you just help us understand how you've been able to contain those build costs and why costs have stayed in check even as you've gone deeper and deeper into the footprint with upgrades?
I think you have to look back to, first, how we architect our fiber network. Through working with our fiber vendor, we have a very modular approach to fiber installation, which what it does is it simplifies the installation process, ensures a level of consistency across, and as the training we provide our techs to work with the modular setup really allows us to gain efficiencies in installation. That's one.
Two, being the largest fiber provider, and we've been that for some time, gives us some unique advantages in our supply contracts. And we have great partners that we work with, and being able to secure this -- the volume of labor and supplies that we need at an effective price point has also been a key to how we've managed to keep costs contained and how we expect to keep costs contained over the next several years.
Another thing that is really important when we talk about it, it's not only the cost of installing fiber, but also the cost of connection. So again, as we get deeper into passings and penetration, more and more of our connections are going to be self-service because we've already connected the home and the customer -- the next customer can just simply come in and call us up and have service. That's an important factor at play. The maintenance profile of fiber is much better than copper. And the energy consumption is much better than copper. All those things together really are unique advantages to having fiber and to doing it at the scale that we do.
I wanted to come back to fixed wireless, which you talked about a little bit already. So if we look at Internet Air, which is AT&T's fixed wireless broadband product, it's been around 3 years since you launched the product. What have you learned over this time period? What surprised you as far as the product capabilities and the customer response? And what are the customer use cases that you can service with Internet Air? And do you think we'll see growth in net adds continue to -- or growth in net adds continue to accelerate this year in addition -- or because of the addition of the 3.45 gigahertz spectrum that you recently added to the network?
Yes. When we are -- when you think about fixed wireless, one of the things that has enabled more locations for us recently is an effort that we started in 2024 to modernize our wireless network. We are literally changing -- we're touching every single tower and changing the radio access technology in those towers to be more open source and to have a consistent architecture.
Those things have enabled us to really, as we've completed portions of our footprint, we've managed to deploy fixed wireless. And the locations that we are able to offer it have grown steadily. It started in earnest in late '24. You saw the effect of that in 2025 with our significant step-function change in net adds.
I would expect 2026 to be a year again where we see more net adds in fixed wireless than we did in 2025 as we're opening up more locations. We complete our wireless modernization in 2027. And by then, we expect to basically be at nationwide coverage for fixed wireless. And that's going to allow us, wherever we don't have fiber, to use fixed wireless as our lead play to drive convergence.
And fixed wireless, I think for consumers who are young, who live in multi-dwelling units, tend to be more transient, it's a fine product. I think if you're a family of 4 with significant bandwidth consumption, it's probably not going to satisfy you as much. Similarly, we've seen really good success with fixed wireless on the small business side. And that's where I would expect most of the growth to come from.
But unlike some of our competitors, I wouldn't expect us to be as focused and to have -- to be as dependent on fixed wireless for growing our broadband. Our lead play has been and will remain fiber as we look ahead.
You've talked quite a bit about convergence already in this discussion. But selling fixed and mobile is a core part of your strategy, and you've laid out clear progress against that strategy in your quarterly earnings calls. Can you help us understand all the measurable benefits that you're seeing from convergence? And also, you've expressed your conversion strategy in the context of fiber plus mobile, but what about Internet Air plus mobile, do you see similar benefits as you do with fiber and mobile bundled together?
Yes. When we have some customer with both broadband and wireless with us, we clearly see lower churn characteristics. We have 10% more share in wireless in our fiber footprint than outside of our fiber footprint. Where we have the 2 products together, fiber and wireless, we're #1 in NPS, #1 in brand love. And those customers tend to buy more from us and we have a higher lifetime value. So enormous benefits.
We were the first ones saying that convergence was one of the primary objectives and goals of how we're going to go to market, and the benefits are true. Also when you take a step back, our research is showing very clearly, customers want to deal with one connectivity provider. They're not looking to deal with more than one. So being able to offer multiple different products to consumers and businesses at a competitive price is an advantage. And that's the way they want to shop.
And with fiber and, to a lesser extent, fixed wireless, we believe we have the very best technology solutions in broadband. And with the modernization of our wireless network, we will be the most modern, efficient and reliable wireless network.
Maybe we could talk about just the cost side of the business and AI a little bit. So you've got a large cost savings opportunity as the company shuts down the legacy copper infrastructure. And then there seems to be a big runway from savings from technology like digitization and AI. Can you just help us to understand these cost opportunities more broadly, how sizable they are, as you execute over the next few years?
If you look back the last several years, as an organization, I think we've done a really nice job of continuing to drive efficiencies across the company, whether it is in support functions, whether it's in care, some of our other front line functions. We are a smaller company today in terms of number of employees because of the adoption of different technologies.
And importantly, there have been several things we've done. First, you look at our call centers, our call volumes are down relative to 5 years ago, even though our subscriber counts are up significantly. How? It's through the use of AI and machine learning, we're able to route calls to the right customer rep the first time for resolution. Big advantage. We are able to optimize field dispatch to make it more efficient through the use of AI. Each year more and more of our sales process and upgrades are going through digital channels, another source of efficiency.
And we have this massive legacy footprint that we are decommissioning, and that's driving costs to come out of the system. So all those things together have really created significant efficiencies the last several years.
And as I look ahead, I would expect us to continue to lean in on AI. I would expect us to continue to work towards retirement of our legacy footprint. More and more of our sales will go through digital channels, which will also drive efficiency. So all the things that we've been doing, I expect us to be able to make meaningful improvements and drive further efficiencies.
Okay. And maybe to wrap up, we can talk about capital allocation a little bit. So you've levered up a bit to acquire the Lumen assets and the EchoStar spectrum. But you're still returning capital, which is great. Walk us through your deleveraging path and capital allocation framework. Perhaps you could also help us understand what flexibility you have to make more additional investments if there are any opportunities that might arise in the coming years.
Yes. I think one of the things we've done really well, we've been very clear about how we think about capital under John's stewardship. Our current guidance and construct is this. Free cash flow goes towards, first, dividends. We have an $8 billion dividend, another $1 billion plus in preferred dividends. We committed $8 billion towards buyback each of the next 3 years. This year, we're going to generate over $18 billion of free cash flow.
So as you look ahead, that $18 billion plus of free cash flow will continue to grow over the next several years, giving us capacity to reduce our net debt some. But more importantly, over the next 3 years, we expect our EBITDA to grow significantly. And higher EBITDA will create higher debt service capacity. So a combination of lower net debt as a result of free cash flows after dividends being used to pay down net debt and -- but more importantly, growth in EBITDA and the capacity to service debt.
But what about flexibility for additional opportunities that might arise?
We said within 3 years we expect to get back to 2.5x, and that remains the goal. Within that envelope, there is some flexibility to go out and secure key assets. But I would, right now, as I said at the outset, what stood about the position we're in is we don't need to do anything. And anything we do, we'd have to look at it and believe, one, it will deliver attractive returns to shareholders, and two, we have a path to get back to our target leverage ratio of 2.5x within a reasonable time frame.
Okay. All right. Well, why don't we wrap up there? Pascal, thank you very much. And thanks, everyone, for joining us.
Thank you.
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AT&T — Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media
AT&T — Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: 2026 ist ein Jahr der Ausführung: Integration der Anfang Februar geschlossenen Lumen-Mass‑Market‑Assets, beschleunigter Faser‑Ausbau und gezielte Konvergenz von Broadband+Mobil. Management peilt als Ausstieg 2026 über 40 Mio. Fiber‑Passings an und erwartet Ende Jahr eine Baugeschwindigkeit von rund 5 Mio. Passings/Jahr.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Lumen‑Deal: Über 4 Mio. Passings, ~1 Mio. Kunden (~25% Penetration); AT&T will Penetration und Konvergenz durch Marketing und Cross‑sell deutlich steigern.
- Berichtsstruktur: Ab Q1 neues Segment‑Reporting: Advanced Connectivity (Wachstum) und Legacy Communications (Abbau) zur besseren Transparenz der Investitionsrenditen.
- Netzstrategien: Fiber bleibt Leitprodukt; Fixed Wireless (Internet Air) ergänzt dort, wo kein Fiber verfügbar ist; Fix‑wireless‑Nationwide‑Rollout bis ~2027 geplant.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Konsolidierungseffekte: Nach Lumen‑Close jetzt >36 Mio. Passings konsolidiert; Q1 wird nur 2 von 3 Monaten konsolidiert, daher kurzfristig geringere Kennzahlen; Management nennt Q1‑FCF $2,0–2,5 Mrd. und EBITDA‑Schwäche im niedrigen einstelligen Prozentbereich.
- Equity‑Partner: Externer Partner für Lumen‑Build erwartet in der zweiten Jahreshälfte, Ziel: Finanzierung der Expansion bei gleichzeitigem Fortbestehen von Dividenden/Buybacks.
- Wachstumsraten: Guidance: Advanced Home Internet >30% Umsatzwachstum (volljährig), Wireless Service Revenue +2–3% für 2026.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Integrationseffekt: Kernfrage war Q1‑Impact: Management nennt Integrations‑ und Transaktionskosten, einmalige Q1‑Vorteile aus Vorjahr entfallen; konkrete Einsparungs‑ oder Synergiezeitpläne bleiben noch grob.
- Penetration & Konvergenz: Kritisch hinterfragt wurde niedrige Lumen‑Penetration (25%) vs. AT&T (≈40%); Management erwartet sukzessive Konvergenz, räumt aber kurzfristige Konsolidierungsdämpfer ein.
- Markt/Pricing: Wettbewerbsintensität und Churn wurden adressiert; Firma erwartet weiterhin hohes Promo‑Niveau, setzt primär auf Ausbau der eigenen Asset‑Vorteile statt großflächiger Preiserhöhungen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Investorenausblick: Langfristig positiv: klarer Weg zu massivem Fiber‑Wachstum, Konvergenz und steigenden EBITDA‑Hebeln. Kurzfristig: Q1‑Headwinds durch Konsolidierung und Integrationskosten. Kapitalrückfluss (Dividende/Buybacks) bleibt Priorität; Hauptrisiken sind Integrationsausführung, Wettbewerbsdruck und Timing des Partners für Lumen‑Finanzierung.
AT&T — Morgan Stanley Technology
1. Question Answer
Okay. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to day 2 of Morgan Stanley's TMT Conference. I'm Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley's telecom and media analyst. Quick disclosure, for important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative.
And we're kicking off day 2 with Jeffery McElfresh. He is the COO of AT&T, overseeing the company's global network, technology and operations since 2022, but has a long, long career at AT&T, which we're going to talk through all of the important things at AT&T over the next 30 minutes. Jeff, thanks for being here.
Ben, thank you for having me. And if I could call everyone's attention to our safe harbor statement and remind everyone that we are in the quiet period for FCC Spectrum Auction 113 as it's in effect.
Great. Well, with that done, so you guys provided an update to your multiyear guidance on your January earnings call, laying out expectations for healthy and improving organic growth over the next few years. And I'm sure you wouldn't be surprised to hear that competition is a big focus in the investment community in the telecom space in the U.S.
So stepping back, what gives you and the team confidence you can deliver on those growth targets in an environment that at least people would describe as being mature on the wireless side and heavily competitive in both wireless and broadband?
Yes. Thanks for the question, Ben. We -- at AT&T, we have a differentiated strategy. I mean it is a disciplined investment-led strategy to drive convergence. And we have been incredibly consistent with this for quite some time. This is not just something that's new for us. In fact, when I look at the number of customers that we now serve in a converged environment, the quantum of customers is significant. And what we learn from what they tell us is there's only one Internet, why pay for it twice.
And for us at AT&T, when we see that kind of response and adoption to the products, it's rewarded in things like where we offer convergence, that's backed by fiber. AT&T is #1 in brand love, #1 in NPS. Churn profiles of these customers are the lowest among all customers. The propensity for them to buy multiple products and help grow up the revenue stack continues to increase. And this playbook that we've been executing in a heightened competitive environment for the last many years gives us a lot of confidence that continuing to focus and execute on that is winning play.
And I'd say we've got all the building blocks. Like there's nothing that we need. We've now closed on the Lumen transaction. That adds 4 million passings. We're at 36 million fiber passings as of today. And we'll exit the year with 40 million. I mean there's nobody else in this sector that is expanding their growth funnel the way AT&T is by executing a proven strategy.
That's a great start. You mentioned convergence. And I think the market seems to oscillate between being bullish on convergence and then worrying it's sort of devolving into discounting and maybe even a price war. So how does AT&T approach convergence in the market in a way that drives growth but also preserves customer lifetime value and returns?
Yes. I mean the continued performance of churn profiles with these customers and the number of products that they purchase continue to maintain the most attractive LTVs in our business, and that continues.
Now at AT&T, when we think about investing, as we are, at the highest levels of anybody in this industry, what do we hold ourselves responsible to? One, we got to drive penetration into that investment. Two, we've got to sell multiple products to get even stronger returns. And so our strategy to serve the best, highest-performing quality product in a converged manner drives these LTVs that we're seeing and keeps these customers incredibly loyal and sticky.
We're not competing on promos. We're not competing on just pricing actions. We're competing on performance and value. And the more we do, the better the brand performs in these markets. And I think that's an important note. That discipline that we hold ourselves to is something that has generated very attractive returns. I mean, during this competitive environment, as we continue to drive convergence, we've delivered in fourth quarter, very strong wireless growth, strong fiber growth, strong EBITDA, expanding margins. And we're able to do all of that while maintaining our commitment to our capital returns program with share buybacks and attractive dividends.
And so this is a working formula. And what I'd like to impart on the audience is, I mean, we're still in expansion mode. We are still growing. And as we expand this fiber network and we run this convergence play, we gain even more and more scale. Ultimately, AT&T will have the absolute best, largest fiber network that is a superior technology, that can serve traffic at the lowest marginal cost of any other technology in the industry. And we complement that with a modernized open 5G network that is now fully fueled with a very impressive mid-band spectrum portfolio. So owning and operating both of those networks gives those at AT&T the ability to serve customers where they want to be served, offering the right performance and the right value.
You mentioned the wireless network. So let me ask you about your outlook for that business, mobility. So you guided to 2% to 3% wireless service revenue growth through 2028, primarily volume driven, I believe, the way you framed it. So where are the opportunities in the U.S. wireless industry for you to do a better job with market share and go after?
It's probably two frames to think of. The first is we continue to see opportunity in market -- segments of the market where AT&T is historically underpenetrated. That might be more of the price-sensitive or value-conscious market, single-line accounts as well as maybe 55+. We still are seeing success in growing our small business franchise with wireless. These are the more classical straight-up wireless-to-wireless plays that we continue to execute on and is bringing new accounts into the AT&T fold.
But importantly, on the convergence footprint, when we closed this transaction with Lumen in record time, we ingested 4 million passings network that is 25% penetrated against AT&T's 40% penetrated larger fiber network. So you can imagine, as I said earlier, okay, well, Jeff, you and the team are focused on penetrating, driving that fiber up from 25% to 40% in that footprint. And our ability to drive convergence, which is to attach mobile to that account. Inside of that footprint, the Lumen territory represents areas of market share where AT&T is lower than our national average. And one in five of those Lumen accounts have wireless services from AT&T.
So as we execute the same strategy we've been executing, we drive incremental wireless growth in a differentiated manner that's durable to the competitive pressures that you see in these footprints. That ability for us to go grow is, as I just explained, now, but we're not stopping at where we sit with this fiber footprint. I mean we'll add another 4 million incremental to exit the year with 40 million passings by the end of this year. And so this convergence play is fueling incremental mobility growth, which is why our guidance incorporates continuing to execute our convergence strategy.
There's been a lot of focus, as we've mentioned earlier, on the competitive environment, Jeff. And I think over the last 6, 9 months, the cable operators have incrementally gotten more aggressive, I would say, from a pricing and packaging point of view and really leaned into wireless and broadband bundles. What impacts, if any, are you seeing from this on AT&T's ability to compete and grow, particularly in wireless?
We've been seeing cable being competitive for quite some time now. But I'd say like we're not cable. We're not like cable. I mean our playbook is, as we are expanding our fiber, which is the absolute best, highest-performing product in the sector in this industry, as we're expanding that into territories where cable has enjoyed some incumbency, it's clear. It's clear that customers are going to pay and switch service for a company that will give them better performance at better value. And as we own and operate both the fiber network and that wireless network, that gives us the ability to serve the household in a way -- in a competitive way that is unmatched by cable.
So over the last, call it, 3 to 4 quarters, as you've seen, as you cited, some heightened competitive intensity, I would just guide the audience to and look at our results over the last 4 quarters. And can you see signals that, that cable strategy is actually giving us pressure. And I would say no, we're actually being quite successful.
Yes. You touched on it earlier, the network and the modernization of the network that's going on. I think AT&T -- somewhat unique strategy and network position. Talk a little bit about where things stand right now on that modernization process and what it does for the company as it wraps up?
Yes. I'm super excited about this because I've been at the company for a long time. Next week, we get to celebrate 150 years of connecting people from the very first phone call next week, and that's why I'm wearing this nice pullover.
And I shared last night with some guests that I've never been more excited as an engineer in the industry for what we got going on at AT&T right now. This modernization that we're doing across our network assets is by all means, kind of quiet and behind the scenes. We haven't spoken a lot about that. But we're making incredible progress on our wireless network. We're about halfway through the switch, the rip-and-replace of some radios. And we've got another 18 months before we're kind of complete with that program.
What I'm excited about is that's been almost flawless in terms of implementing this tech upgrade across all these towers without disturbing customer service. And if you're a company like ours that backs your product with the industry's only guarantee, like we've raised the bar on ourselves to make sure that we don't impact service when we're making these investments in modernizing the wireless network.
So the progress, what we're seeing when we have touched these cell sites and really refreshed the technology that's on the towers, we're seeing gains in customer experience, gains in throughput, gains in retainability, gains in performance and lower cost structures because we've gone to more standard models across these towers so that our operating teams find efficiency in maintaining that RF environment. And that's just going to continue to improve as we make our way through that transformation.
So this sounds like it's both an efficiency and a customer-facing.
It is. And then that's kind of like on the surface. The second tactic and the second objective of this modernization effort is to open it up. And opening up introduces new players to come in from the hardware perspective to innovate on small cells, femtocells and some even high-performing radio assets. And we've seen some really good success in the lab and some early market trials of providers of equipment that are new to the category, interfacing with our network in this open standard.
That's one benefit for capital efficiency in the future. And I'll remind you as we get through this modernization, like right now, we're at peak levels. When we complete the wireless modernization, that capital intensity falls kind of similar to when we're done building out our 60 million-plus passings, our capital intensity falls. But when we get to that point of the wireless modernization, we now have a platform that we can open API interface to maybe, let's say, a wireline network or a hyperscaler. And at AT&T, our convergence strategy isn't just a go-to-market strategy. It's actually what is guiding our investments in our networks as we modernize.
So think convergence of these network assets well -- deep into the edge of the network, closest to customers. This is why we have confidence we will emerge with the absolute best, lowest marginal cost network to serve an ever-increasing demand of traffic as AI workloads and all of these new capabilities are starting to surface and emerge.
Got it. Why don't we -- let's shift gears to broadband, and I want to -- you mentioned it earlier, but let's talk about Lumen. You closed the Lumen Mass Markets acquisition last month, adding over 4 million homes to the footprint. What's next in terms of leveraging the newly expanding fiber footprint and kind of folding it into your overall convergence strategy?
Yes. You probably recall John's commentary in our fourth quarter earnings. I mean we closed this transaction in record time. And at AT&T, we've done a lot of horizontal mergers, acquisitions and integrations. And as the teams are preparing for a close, generally, we have more time to get a few of the final pieces assembled, but the close occurred in record time. And so as John alluded to, for the first cycle or 2, we're still completing that integration work.
And that integration work isn't, let's say, technically complex. It's about things like you convey employees, you welcome new employees from Lumen into the AT&T world. And then you've got to allocate resources out into the markets where you're finding increased demand for your fiber product. And the technicians that you need to locate, that takes a minute or 2 to hire, to train and to get them positioned. We've also got a build engine that conveyed with the Lumen transaction. And we are going to capitalize that build engine and scale it along with our Gigapower franchise to generate 1 million passings a year run rate.
And so we're working on the building blocks for that organization to increase their rate and pace of new footprint build. Because remember, the acquisition of Lumen wasn't a synergy-based case. This was a growth-based case. And so we'll take the time to get the assets positioned right. And I'll be excited for when we start to report results as the year progresses so our investors can actually see the success we expect.
So with Lumen, I think you're at 36 million fiber passings, you plan to reach over 60 million by 2030. You mentioned you're building more than anybody else in the country, but you've actually got to ramp up the run rate to get to those numbers.
Yes, we do.
What really needs to happen? Like how do you derisk a pretty key expectation of the market to get up to sort of a 5 million type build run rate. I mean this is -- it's a pretty significant ramp.
It is, but you have to remember that this build isn't happening all on top of one another. And so as -- I mean, we, at AT&T, we have built at a 4 million run rate level in the past. So as we scale up to that 4 million number, you have to ensure that you've got good cost control over your supply chain and your labor markets, which we've demonstrated we do, and we continue to do.
Two, you've got to ensure that your implementation out into the markets is effective. And so that is the permitting, that's the prepositioning of all the materials and the contractors and the employees to get the work done. So we've successfully scaled from 2 million to 2.5 million to 3 million to 3.5 million. We've got the runway on that from an organic perspective.
On the Lumen side and the Gigapower side, the amount of footprint that they have to pursue to go grow is known. It's identified and it's in the permitting process. And then the scale of the AT&T purchasing power with fiber providers and with equipment providers helps to derisk those build engines from scaling.
And how do you think about cost containment, cost per passing in a world of inflation and supply chain complexity and the world you're operating in?
Yes, a lot of people buying a lot of fiber lately, right? Well, a couple of things. First, over the last couple of years in an inflationary environment, our cost per passing has been inflated no more than 2%. So we have been very successful in managing costs. But as I said -- as I shared with the investors at our Analyst and Investor Day in Dallas, there's three costs we pay attention to. We pay attention to what it costs us to actually build the network to pass a location. We pay attention to how much it costs for us to connect the customer to that network and then the cost to maintain.
And so when we're looking at investing this amount of capital into a fiber network, we're going to go drive penetration because it's the only way you get revenue on it. And the cost associated with turning that investment into revenue is a large component of the total cost. It's just not the cost to build. So as we find efficiencies in our cost to build, which we have as we've scaled, we are finding even more efficiencies in our cost to connect. And cash is cash. So it gives us the ability to redirect any improvements or efficiencies in our cost to connect in other areas like growth, maybe building one more passing.
And the scale advantages of this network and this build engine and this team is impressive. And that's what gets me excited because when we wrap up this transformation and this fiber expansion, then you're kind of sitting there looking at having a highly penetrated, best-performing future-proof fiber network where you've got happy customers that buy more from you than just broadband. They are loyal, they have low churn, the highest NPS scores, you can kind of get this image of this becomes a cash flow generating platform that AT&T is going to enjoy when we make our way to the end of the decade.
You guys laid out growth projections for broadband. There has been certainly a little bit of a moderation in fiber ARPU growth, and I think the market has been focused on that in your results and your outlook. What's your perspective on the opportunity or risk around AT&T's fiber ARPUs? And is it still an opportunity for AT&T in terms of driving growth long term?
Yes. I mean it's -- there's no change of perspective in terms of what kind of revenue yields we can get on the fiber network. But I think this is an important point. We're growing, like we're expanding. And when you're running a very large-scale network like ours, you get into a yield management strategy where once you achieve a certain pin rate on an investment, you have secured the payback. You've hit your IRR like success.
And what we're seeing at AT&T is we are continuing to beat our own internal expectations in terms of penetrating that fiber when it's built, converging it with mobility, securing the home with a quality of installation that's durable. So any resident that ever occupies that location in the future is eligible for self-install and the cost profile of that is very attractive.
And so our strategy is to maximize the number of connections on our fiber network, to do so in a manner that penetrates in segments that aren't just SFUs. There are many different kinds of customer cohorts. And fortunately, because of our execution and the cost structure of this technology, we're able to compete across many of those cohorts in a way to gain share and continue to drive attractive returns and profits in that part of our business.
Last broadband question, then we'll move on. But how does fixed wireless fit into all this fiber focus?
Same as it always has at AT&T. It's a very tactical product for us. We don't sell fixed wireless where we offer fiber. We use it for preceding, preselling where fiber is coming. We use fixed wireless effectively and drive convergence in markets where we never intend to have a fiber asset. And you can think about as over the last year or so, as we lifted up that 3.45 spectrum, it opened up more sectors of fallow capacity we could sell into in areas where we have low wireless share like we did in the Lumen footprint. You can imagine AT&T was offering fixed wireless in those markets. Now that we have fiber, we won't prioritize fixed wireless. We'll prioritize, obviously, fiber.
Fiber remains our #1 play where we have it. Fixed wireless is a tool in the toolkit to drive conversions, to drive growth in markets where we don't have fiber.
Let's move to the business market. What do you think is the most exciting opportunity in B2B? And since this conference is all about AI and hyperscalers, maybe you can talk about how AT&T sits in that ecosystem.
It's -- we're well positioned, Ben. We've got a storied -- we've got a great book of business with enterprise, as you know. And we've been around a while doing this. I've never seen the kind of conversations like I'm seeing today with enterprise customers. They are trying to figure out where their workloads go. And in the past, maybe it was a hub-and-spoke model. I've got my data center. I got to get to another hyperscaler data center. Maybe I have to interconnect through a MeetMe point.
Now they're realizing that with AI coming on strong within their enterprises that these workloads are really going multiple places. They need a high-availability, high-assurance, high-performing network that is not single threaded, but multi-threaded in order for them to secure their future. And when you couple that need against the largest fiber network and the strongest 5G position in the industry, AT&T has got real opportunity to drive not only fiber and 5G, but some value-added services to help our enterprise clients actually attach to this AI-enabled network of the future.
And I think that's emerging and developing. I think there's no pinned out winning strategy yet because many people are still investing in these data centers in the metro areas, but more and more of the conversation is leading in that direction. And why I like it is, well, AI needs high-performing bandwidth. And that's kind of the business that we're in.
Yes. There's a lot of focus also on satellite connectivity. I mean I know you've spent a lot of time thinking about and looking at -- you have a deal that you've recently announced with Amazon with their -- what used to be Kuiper now Leo product. You're also an investor and I think an early partner in AST. So talk a little bit about AT&T's position on direct-to-cell or direct-to-device and sort of how you think it fits in either as an opportunity or even as a potential new competitor down the road?
At AT&T, we view our #1 role is to connect people and to do so in a very seamless manner. And so it's our job to remove the complexity. You just want to be connected to the Internet. So we still view satellite as an important but complementary service.
The Amazon Leo deal was for a different mission or different use case than direct-to-device, which I think bodes to our strategy where we're not wedded to one particular technology or provider. Our job is to ensure that we can provide seamless connectivity to the Internet at the lowest marginal cost with the best performance. And if we do that in this industry that is being shuffled and reshaped right now, we believe that's the winning strategy. So you'll see consistency from AT&T in bringing in partners like an AST or an Amazon or others where it helps us deliver on that vision of being the company that makes connecting seamless.
Do you see satellite as a potential competitor to terrestrial long term?
No. We've been pretty consistent on that. It will have its place where it is uniquely positioned to perform miracles actually and fantastic things. But the amount of traffic growth that we see in the terrestrial networks right now is not slowing down. And it's not just download traffic. It's these AI applications and robotics and autonomous vehicles, the uplink needs that they are bringing forward are massive. And you really need dense, very robust terrestrial networks on the ground to carry that traffic.
Got it. Okay. Let's shift gears a little bit more on the expense and EBITDA side of the equation. You're aiming to decommission I think the majority of your copper network by the end of 2029, not a small project.
Not a small project.
Give us an update on sort of where you are now, what milestones you've achieved? And also, what are the big pain points in front of you when you think about certain geographies and all the regulatory bodies you guys interact with?
We've had really good success here, and it's been a long mission. Susan did a nice job at our Investor and Analyst Day in Dallas, kind of laying out what the milestones are, and we're right on those milestones.
One thing that's important to note is we've announced a new reporting convention that we're going to begin reporting here in the first quarter, separating out our Advanced Connectivity and our Legacy business. This is an important move for AT&T. We're giving clear transparency to all of you, our investors, as well as we're creating some accountability for our teams that have to go mine out these legacy services, you're able to now see what kind of revenues and expenses are associated with that copper network. That's an important point for us.
We've got about 85% of the wire centers today, we're not selling in anymore. We have permission to discontinue sale. We've got about 30% of them where we can go to full discontinuance, which means we can actually shut down these wire centers. We've got over 5,000 of these scattered across all the states. And right now, we are in execution mode. We are migrating customers off of those services. We are transitioning them to our products to get them off of the copper. And then we go in and we cleave out equipment and hardware, shut down power and basically lower the operating expense of that wire center. And it is a wire center by wire center task. There's no rip the Band-Aid and one day, it's all gone. It is going to atrophy like this as we manage that.
Then the bigger challenge is many of the systems that support legacy, they're not a system just for that wire center or that state. So success across the footprint is required for us to decommission some of these larger legacy IT platforms that support that work. That will come towards the tail end of our unwinding strategy with copper. So you'll be able to now track and see our progress on unwinding that copper legacy business. While at the same time, you'll see these very attractive growth rates in our Advanced Connectivity segment, where it's where all of our capital is going, and we're excited about that structure.
And the expectation you've laid out for the market is 3% to 4% EBITDA growth this year, ramping to 5% plus by '28. When you think about the expense piece of that acceleration, what else are you focused on beyond what we just talked about to get there?
Well, we -- I mean, we are -- this is an investment-led transformation. It's not just sheer cost cutting. The other activities that we have in flight in the company beyond copper sunset are: we touched on wireless modernization. So standardizing on our architecture out in the field gives us synergy opportunity in the workforce and the tool sets that we use to maintain that. That lowers our carrying cost and cash operating expenses.
Second, in our wireline modernization strategy, as it begins to get implemented market by market, when we're done with that market, that market is in the future state and the support cost that are required to maintain that go away. So it's not a cliff event for us in terms of driving operating leverage. We have guided to a $4 billion cost target out to 2028 right now. Well, that continues as we continue to execute each of these transformation strategies.
Got it. Well, that's a good place maybe to -- for my last question, which is beyond 2028. I know you guys are thinking long term about the network and the business. So if you think about AT&T 2030, and you think about all the capital you're investing into the business more than really anybody else in the sector between now and then, what does AT&T look like as these investments and transformations wrap up and you reach the other side?
It's going to be a beautiful day. I remember when we first started talking about the end of the decade, I'm like, well, that's a long way away. I mean that's just 4 years from now. That looks right around the corner.
One, an industry-leading, most modern, most open and most cost-efficient wireless network that is ready for the future state of technology nationwide, plus dense metropolitan fiber in all the markets where we find attractive returns with success in driving and leading in convergence in this industry with customers on those networks with attractive churn profiles -- churn performance and return profiles. And everywhere else across this great nation, no more copper, we're only serving with wireless. And the efficiencies that we generate when we come out of that transformation, I think, are self-evident in terms of the P&L and the expenses.
We're going to be in a position where we've got -- we've proven consistently and are in a leadership position with a converged strategy as this industry resets around us. We don't need to buy anything incremental. We just need to execute, and it's in front of us to go execute. And when we get there, the cash flows that this company will generate will be industry-leading.
Great. Perfectly landed at 0. Thank you, Jeff. This was awesome. Appreciate it.
Yes, touchdown.
Thanks, everybody.
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AT&T — Morgan Stanley Technology
AT&T — Morgan Stanley Technology
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: AT&T setzt konsequent auf Konvergenz: schneller Glasfaser‑Ausbau plus modernisiertes, offenes 5G soll niedrigeren Churn, stärkeren Cross‑sell und höhere Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) liefern.
- Transaktion: Lumen‑Mass‑Markets (+≈4 Mio. Passings) erweitert sofort die Ausbaubasis; Ziel >60 Mio. Passings bis 2030.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Fiber‑Plan: Aktuell 36 Mio. Passings, Ziel Exit‑Jahr 40 Mio.; Ausbaufokus und Penetrationssteigerung in Lumen‑Gebieten (25% vs AT&T‑Durchschnitt ~40%).
- Netzmodernisierung: Wireless‑"rip‑and‑replace" ~halb abgeschlossen, ~18 Monate bis Fertigstellung; erwartet bessere Performance, niedrigere Opex und Plattformöffnung für Drittanbieter.
- Kapital & Rendite: Fokus auf Performance statt Promo‑Wettbewerb; Buybacks/Dividende bleiben; $4 Mrd. Kostenziel bis 2028; Wireless‑Service‑Umsatzguidance +2–3% bis 2028.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Konkrete Zahlen: Lumen brachte ~4 Mio. Passings; AT&T bei 36 Mio. Passings heute, plant Exit‑Jahr mit 40 Mio. und baut auf 1 Mio. Passings/Jahr Run‑Rate.
- Reporting: Ab Q1 neues Segment‑Reporting "Advanced Connectivity" vs "Legacy" für bessere Transparenz; Kupfer‑Abbau: 85% der Wire‑Centers nicht mehr im Verkauf, 30% zur vollständigen Abschaltung, >5.000 Wire‑Centers betroffen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Wettbewerb: Kabel‑Bundles und Preisdruck wurden thematisiert; Management betont Differenzierung über Performance und Konvergenz, nicht Preise.
- Build‑Risiken: Nachfrage nach Details zum Ramp‑up (5 Mio. Run‑Rate) und Kosten pro Passing; Antworten betonten Erfahrung und Skalenvorteile, blieben aber qualitativ ohne konkrete Zeitachse für maximalen Run‑Rate.
- Sonstige Themen: Fiber‑ARPU‑Moderation, Rolle von Fixed Wireless und Satellitenpartnerschaften wurden diskutiert; Management skizzierte taktische Nutzung, aber ohne detaillierte ARPU‑Prognosen.
📌 Bottom Line
- Fazit: Der Auftritt unterstreicht AT&Ts investitionsgetriebene Konvergenz‑These: substanzielle Asset‑Zugänge (Lumen), sichtbare Fortschritte bei Netzmodernisierung und klares Reporting‑Commitment. Chancen liegen in Penetrationsgewinnen und Kostenhebel, Hauptrisiken bleiben Umsetzung (Permits, Personal, Integration) und das Erreichen der hohen Build‑Ambitionen.
AT&T — Barclays Communications and Content Symposium 2026
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. I'm Kannan Venkateshwar, and I lead the North American cable telecom and media research effort here at Barclays, Sorry, we had to make this event virtual last minute, given all the travel disruptions. But I did want to acknowledge all the work of my corporate access team who have been very busy in the last 24 hours, setting all this up to work seamlessly. So thank you, Jamie and team.
I'm really happy to have here with me Pascal Desroches, CFO, AT&T. Pascal, great to have you, and thanks for doing this. But before we get started, I think you have to go through the safe harbor statements.
Sure thing. Good morning, Kannan and it's a pleasure to be with you. Before I begin, I want to call your attention to our safe harbor statement, which says some of my comments may be forward-looking and, therefore, subject to risks and uncertainties, and results may differ materially. Also, we're in the quiet period for the FCC Spectrum Auction 113 and during this period, I'm unable to comment at all about the upcoming auction.
So with that, Kannan, we can get started.
So maybe we could start with Mobility, Pascal, and just the overall operating environment across the wireless business and address some of the questions that everybody has top of mind. It seems like volumes have been a big priority over the last few years. And at present, pricing based on your guidance as well as what others like Verizon have said, it seems there is this debate about whether this is a race to the bottom, are we in a new normal, especially if volumes don't grow. So could you talk a little bit about the ARPU trajectory from here and how you could maintain your service revenue growth trajectory in case ARPU was to remain in the present trend line for some time?
Sure thing, Kannan, I think what's really helpful to keep in mind is 2025 was a competitive environment, right? And you look at 2025, we grew wireless service revenues a touch over 3%. We grew our broadband revenues mid-teens, and our ARPU was up modestly. And I think it's a reflection of the -- candidly, how we have been going to market and what you could expect from us as you look ahead. We are in a unique position in that. We are significantly expanding our fiber and fixed wireless footprint.
We were the first to really highlight the fact that we're going to -- customers want to buy on a converged basis. And we have been driving convergence for some time, and our opportunities for convergence are going to go up significantly. Last year, we ended with 32 million fiber subscribers. As we sit here today, we are above 36 million, having closed the Lumen acquisition, and we expect to end this year at over 40 million fiber locations passed. Those locations, coupled with an expansion of our opportunities for fixed wireless, give us an opportunity to drive convergence.
Why is it so important to us? We have found that where we have both fiber and wireless, we are #1 in brand love among consumers and small businesses. We are #1 or 2 among medium and medium-sized businesses and enterprises. So it's -- our customers love the products when we're able to solve them together and our opportunity to deliver those products together is growing. And what we are able to do when we have them together is you have customers who typically buy more from us, higher price points. They stay with us longer and allow us to achieve much higher lifetime value.
So the place that we have been running, they're going to be available to us on a much broader basis as you look ahead. And I feel really good about where we are. And I think 2025's performance is a good reflection of what we think we're going to be able to do as you look ahead.
Got it. And from an ARPU perspective, just continuing on that thread for a bit. But when we think about your change in focus over the last couple of quarters, it seems like the origination cohorts have changed a little bit in terms of where you are focused, what changed from a targeting approach -- what changed for the targeting approach to change towards some of the lower-priced cohorts?
Sure thing. Here's which -- when you're running a subscription base, the size that we are, you have to have a pretty broad offering. Remember, we start from a place where we have the highest wireless ARPU. And in order to grow our service revenue, which is really where we are -- what our goal has been and will continue to be, you have to broaden out who you appeal to. That doesn't mean you're not able to extract more value from other portions of your overall subscriber base. And we've been doing that for some time. Last year, you saw a significant effort to really try to drive growth among value customers and also converged customers typically come with a service -- with a bundled discount, but over time, we're going to be able to drive more value from those customers. And I think it's really important that we differentiate ARPU from pricing. It's possible that our ARPU doesn't grow, but we're still able to drive pricing in parts of our base, and that's what we've been doing, and that's what I would expect us to be able to do as we look ahead.
Got it. Actually, before I ask the next question, I forgot to mention at the start that in case the audience has questions, there's a chat box in front of you, feel free to type it in and I'll read it out towards the end. And on the Mobility business, Pascal, when we think about churn, I mean, that's also been a little elevated. And you've mentioned a larger-than-normal proportion of contract roll-offs not being a factor anymore. And so is this all because of competition? And do you expect 2026 to be different as you go through the rest of the year in terms of churn or does it mean revert to some extent?
Yes. When I think back to 2025, there were a few factors at play. I think, one, for us, you had a bigger cohort that was coming off contracts. Two, I think immigration clearly had an impact in terms of the number of new subscribers available in the ecosystem. Three, those had an impact, not only at the federal level, but many state and local governments had those-like efforts and other institutions like colleges and university. All those things were at play in 2025.
Our planning assumption as we came into 2026 was to assume that many of those still exist. We're not going to experience a contract roll off that we did last year. But Kannan, the way I think about it is given our unique position and our driving convergence, yes, we are planning for a higher level of churn in 2026. But over time, as we drive more and more convergence in our base, it's very clear that converged customers churn less. So over time, we would expect churn to come down as more and more of our base is converged. And it's one that I think currently, we are planning for that not to be the case in 2026. But over time, it's just a matter of time as we drive more convergence.
Got it. And so pulling on that thread for a bit, more on the fiber side, you recently closed on Lumen. How should we think about the timing of the integration process? And how quickly can you ramp the pace of build and scale this business? So when should we start to see these opportunities show up?
Yes. We are quite excited about the Lumen opportunity. We closed in early February. And as a reminder, the Lumen business came with over 4 million fiber locations passed. Importantly, those locations passed are only 25% penetrated. And so we think we have a huge opportunity to ramp up penetration. Also, the convergence in those locations is less than 20%. As a point of comparison, in our own footprint, convergence is over 40%. So we think we have a huge opportunity to capitalize on that asset and to really improve penetration and drive additional convergence.
It's going to take some time. Through the good work of our legal team, we were able to close this candidly a little faster than we even thought. And so right now, the work that is being done is build, adding to the distribution in the area to drive more penetration, also adding to things like field tech to ensure that we're able to meet with the higher volumes we expect. And all that work is underway, and I would expect, as we make all the way through the year, we will be able to get through to a normal operating cadence that we do -- we see in our own footprint. And look, it's early days, but I feel really good. The reception about our brand in that new footprint has been really positive, and we think that will only grow as we add more and more marketing muscle behind it.
As it relates to the build, again, it's similar to distribution and penetration that I just talked about. It's going to take a little bit of time. Lumen has been building less than 0.5 million in each in its footprint. We expect to ramp that up significantly. Just like we've talked about in our own footprint to do that, it just takes some time. You have to add more resources and the build engine has to scale. But we know how to do this. We really do, and it's only a matter of time, and we have every confidence that we're going to be able to do it. And the AT&T brand will be really accepted well there, and it's going to be a great acquisition for us.
When you think about the other aspects of the deal, I mean, you've also mentioned an equity partner potentially as a source of capital in this. I mean what's the timing around that? And then as we go forward, will Lumen be broken out in terms of its metrics in terms of net adds, subs penetration so that we can see the underlying performance?
Sure thing. With regard to an equity partner, when we announced the deal, we said it would take us 6 to 9 months to close on an equity partner. We're in that process right now, and I expect us to be in a position to close some time in the second half of the year on that. Remember, it has to -- similar to the acquisition itself, the equity partner has to go through -- the acquisition of an equity partner has to go through a regulatory review process. That's why it takes that long, but we have pretty good line of sight to that process. As it relates to disclosures, rest assured, we're going to give you visibility in terms of how the asset is performing relative to our expectations.
Got it. And I guess just broadly around this investment theme, John has mentioned that you have capacity on your balance sheet for other strategic options. Do you see future asset acquisitions as an opportunity, especially given that you also have a deleveraging goal? And then more broadly, are there other structures possible? I mean Lumen obviously is one alternative structure, you have GigaFiber and so on. As you think about the underlying asset within your balance sheet, which is pretty big now, are there other structures possible even for that asset base?
Here is the good news about where we are today. We don't need any other asset to execute on our strategy. With the acquisition of the EchoStar spectrum and the Lumen assets, we have clear line of sight to get to over 60 million fiber locations. We have the largest wireless network that we are in the midst of modernizing, and we expect that process to be largely completed as you get through the next couple of years. So -- and it will be -- and we'll have a really deep spectrum portfolio. So we feel really good about where we are. So there's not a need to do anything. But as you would expect, it's our responsibility whenever anything comes to market to evaluate it to see whether we have an opportunity to generate returns for our owners. But right now, what is exciting is there's -- we don't have to do anything. We have a lot of running room ahead of us without having to do anything inorganically.
Got it. And on the fiber side, volume growth is obviously a huge focus for everyone, and you have the goal of 40 million passings this year as well. But cable is also trying to fight harder now with back book repricing and network upgrades and so on. So when you think about the fiber market more broadly, what's the competitive playbook or your go-to-market strategy? And then in terms of a growth cadence, I mean, should we expect the push for volumes to lead to an acceleration, either on the volume side or the revenue growth side. So if you can just talk about broadly the strategic advantages and the path from here, that would be useful.
Yes, I think it's worth underscoring the comments I made at the outset. We're at a point right now where our opportunities for incremental fiber subscribers is growing. With the closing of Lumen, we are above 36 million locations passed. This year, we are stepping up our organic build, and we expect to end 2026 at of a 4 million bill pace annually in our own footprint. We're ramping the Lumen build engine and expect that to be ultimately at 1 million locations. So in 2027 and beyond, we expect to be adding 5 million fiber locations each year. And this year, we expect that number to be over 8 million. And so that gives you a sense for how our opportunity set is growing.
And where we are building, we are building in a location that we haven't been before. And we're bringing the AT&T brand. We're bringing the ability to converge. In that instance, cable is the one playing defense, we're playing offense. We're coming in with a better product. We're in a position to offer it at a better price point, and we're able to converge it with wireless all on our own networks, not having to rent somebody else's network. And as I said at the outset, when we have those 2 products together, we are #1 in consumer brand love and NPS. So we feel really good about our position. And I think the question should be, what is cable going to do about our plans to continuing to expand.
Got it. And then on fixed wireless, you have been accelerating quite a bit over the last few years. I mean, the industry as a whole has been accelerating quite a bit. Now you have a pretty substantial spectrum portfolio, but we saw a sequential decline in Q4 for the first time in your numbers. So how should we think about the long-term trajectory now with your more expensive spectrum portfolio? And what does the growth opportunity here to look like?
Sure thing. I think just taking a step back, one of the things that we've said we've been doing, and I think it's really worth emphasizing is we've been modernizing our wireless network. That means we didn't literally taking every single tower and putting new radio access technology in it. And we've been trying to sequence that process and the rollout of fixed wireless in those territories. That process is still mid-flight. So we haven't even -- we haven't completed the modernization. And as we complete it, more and more opportunities for fixed wireless open up. That's one. Two, as you mentioned, we've got through the EchoStar acquisition, pretty attractive spectrum holdings. Those 2 things are going to help us expand our opportunity set over the next several years.
With regard to the fourth quarter, I think the fourth quarter, typically, the focus is device offers and other holiday sales. I wouldn't read too much into it. Fixed wireless as a product because it's not available nationwide, we haven't really put the AT&T marketing and distribution muscle behind it. So we have every confidence once we do that, we're going to be able to drive really attractive returns.
Got it. And you've spent about $30-ish billion on EchoStar and Lumen assets, but you haven't shown much accretion benefits in your guidance as you go through your guidance period into 2028. So could you maybe expand on why it takes so long for these acquisitions to contribute to EBITDA?
Sure thing. With the Lumen assets, right, let's take those first, they come with a revenue base, call it, about $900 million. In order to grow that into a drive deeper penetration, we're going to make pretty substantial investments in driving our distribution and service capabilities in that footprint. So largely, we would expect that to be -- it won't have a material impact in year to EBITDA. It will have slightly dilutive impact to interest because we are -- to EPS because we are paying interest on the debt.
As it relates to EchoStar, it's a very similar story. As I mentioned, we are in the midst of modernizing all of our towers. And what that's going to result in is over time, we expect to complete that modernization by -- largely by the end of 2027. What that will do is it will allow us to fully deploy that spectrum.
As you can tell from my comments, both whether it's the Lumen assets or the EchoStar, there's a ramping period and an investment period that we are going to undertake over the next couple of years. And we expect that to be largely completed by the time we exit 2027. That's why the accretion is expected to really show up in 2028 in earnest.
What I think is impressive is the fact that we are able to absorb these assets, not change the guides we previously had outstanding. We're still able to deliver that, which speaks to the strength of our underlying business. And these assets will produce really attractive long-term returns for our shareholders. So I feel really good about the pace at which we are executing on this. And I think the returns on this will be really attractive for our shareholders.
Got it. And during earnings, you also gave us some color on free cash flow and EBITDA for the upcoming quarter. And that was a little softer, largely on account of capital investments and cash interest and so on. Could you help us understand how the cadence for free cash flow plays out the rest of the year? How should we think about any kind of seasonality or any other factors that impact future quarters?
In terms of quarterly cadence, I think the cadence should be largely consistent with what you've seen in the past. The first half of the year, in particular Q1, there are a couple of things that impacted from a seasonality, holiday sales and the devices that are paid for in the first quarter is always a bit of a headwind to Q1 free cash flow.
The annual incentive comp is also paid in Q1. This year, in particular, we are ramping up integration of Lumen. So those are expenses that we didn't have last year. We're also stepping up our capital spending from '22 to between '23 and '24. That's expected to be a headwind. As we make our way through the year, some of those items no longer persist or those comps ease. So you would -- you should expect free cash flow to continue to grow as you make your way sequentially.
As it relates to the 3-year plan, this year, we expect free cash flow to grow largely as a result of EBITDA growth, lower pension contributions. And last year, we had some nonrecurring working capital investments, including litigation expenses and wholesale access advances that are not expected to recur. That's going to be offset by higher capital. As you make your way through the next couple of years, you should expect free cash flow growth to be largely driven by EBITDA growth.
Got it. I guess the other variable is the cost transformation project. And you've talked about $4 billion in new cost savings between '26 to '28. So could you talk about how this relates to the prior $3 billion goal? I mean is this incremental? Are you accelerating the time line? Is there anything new? What are the new components that you're including in this?
I think we've done a really nice job the last several years of continuing to transform our cost base. You look at last year, at the end of '24, we gave a 3-year guidance that said we were going to reduce -- we were going to save over $3 billion. Last year, we saved over $1 billion and it's in a variety of areas, third-party costs, third-party vendors, software, force, access. And if you look at our trending schedules that we have on our website, those will show you when you exclude equipment costs and other growth-related expenses. We -- our cash operating expenses were down last year. And I would expect that trend to continue. We have done a great job on cost. We're reinvesting a lot of that -- those savings back into growing our customer base and because we think we have a huge opportunity to do that, but the team has done a great job, and I would expect that to continue over the next several years. The $4 billion really is going to capture '26 through '28. The prior guidance captured '25 through '27.
Got it. And in terms of decommissioning, you've obviously talked about this being an opportunity in the coming years and that you -- but the other part -- other side of this is you expect legacy service revenues to decline by over 20% in 2026 and for it to be immaterial by '29. But EBITDA is expected to turn negative in '27, which means that your revenues are declining at a faster rate than the cost opportunities. So how should we think about the cadence of cost savings from this front?
Yes. I think if you look back the last couple of years, our legacy revenues have been declining faster than our cost, and that's what's been impressive about our organic performance the last couple of years. And with each year that passes, the absolute drag on legacy should diminish. And you saw last year, we took out about $1 billion of the costs associated with the legacy business. And I would expect that to continue as you make your way through the next several years. I have every confidence that we can manage that process through cost reductions and continued accelerated growth in advanced connectivity.
Got it. And we just have a couple of minutes left. So anybody in the audience, if you have questions, please type it into the chat box. But Pascal, maybe on the decommissioning side, another question here is, obviously, there's a cost and revenue side of it, but there's also an asset unlock opportunity here. You have a lot of real estate potentially in this business. You also have -- copper itself is quite valuable in today's market, and there's a lot of it in the plan. So when you think about this opportunity, when should we start seeing some of these -- the asset opportunities start to show up? I think some of it has already happened, but it would be great to understand how this plays out in the coming years.
Yes. Look, none of the guidance we've provided you includes any monetization of real estate or monetization of copper. And I think the opportunities there are pretty attractive. As we -- I think it's important to keep in mind, it was with the Carr FCC that we were able to really start to gain some exit velocity on decommissioning process. We now have approval from the FCC to stop inwards new subscribers onto legacy. That's a big deal for us.
We expect by the end of 2026 to be able to stop offering -- not only stop offering but to be able to get out of 30% of our wireline footprint. That's a big deal. As we get out of more and more of that footprint, that's when you should start to see some of these monetization opportunities realize themselves. And so we are in really good shape, and I would expect that to only grow as we make our way further into the decommissioning process. And I think with the regulatory environment, there is a tailwind at our back that we didn't have for a long time.
Got it. All right. On that note, Pascal, we're out of time. This was great. Thanks for joining us.
Thank you. Thank you for having me.
Absolutely. Yes, we'll see you next time.
Take care.
Bye.
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AT&T — Barclays Communications and Content Symposium 2026
AT&T — Barclays Communications and Content Symposium 2026
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: AT&T setzt klar auf Konvergenz: Massive Ausweitung der Fiber‑Passings plus Ausbau von Fixed Wireless sollen Kundenwert (ARPU, Kundenbindungsdauer) erhöhen und langfristiges Umsatz‑/EBITDA‑Wachstum liefern.
- Zeithorizont: Viele Effekte sind langfristig; Management erwartet wesentliche Erträge erst nach Abschluss von Integrations‑ und Modernisierungsphasen (Ramp bis 2027, Akzeleration 2028).
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Fiber‑Push: Aufbau auf >36 Mio. Passings (inkl. Lumen); Ziel: >40 Mio. Passings bis Jahresende; langfristig >60 Mio. möglich mit EchoStar‑Spektrum.
- Convergence: Kombination Fiber + Wireless soll höhere ARPU, längere Verweildauer und geringeren Churn bringen; konvergente Haushalte zeigen deutlich höhere Lifetime‑Value.
- Kapitalstruktur: Equity‑Partner für Lumen in Prüfung (Ziel: Abschluss H2); AT&T prüft weitere Optionen, sieht aber aktuell keinen Zwang zu zusätzlichen Akquisitionen.
🔎 Neue Informationen
- Integration: Lumen‑Close erfolgte Anfang Februar; Penetration dort ~25% und Konvergenz <20% — daher hoher Upside durch Vertriebs‑/Marketing‑Investitionen.
- Timing: Modernisierung der Wireless‑Infrastruktur und Volllauslastung von EchoStar‑Spektrum bis Ende 2027; spürbare EBITDA‑Akzeleration erwartet ab 2028.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- ARPU & Churn: Analysten hinterfragten, ob Fokus auf günstigere Neukunden ARPU‑Druck verstärkt; Management: ARPU und Preis sind unterschiedliche Hebel, Konvergenz kompensiert Teile des Drucks.
- Integrationstempo: Wichtigste Nachfragen zu Lumen‑Integration, Build‑Pace und Offenlegung separater KPIs; CFO verspricht künftig mehr Visibility, Equity‑Partnerprozess dauert 6–9 Monate.
- Decommissioning: Fragen zu Monetarisierung von Immobilien/Kupfer und Kosten‑ vs. Umsatzdynamik; Management: Monetarisierung nicht in Guidance eingerechnet, Realisierung erwartet sukzessive ab Ende 2026.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Ergebnis: Für Aktionäre bedeutet der Call: klares, langfristig werttreibendes Wachstumskonzept (Fiber+Wireless) mit kurzfristigen Belastungen durch Integrations‑ und Investitionskosten. Wichtige Risiken sind Execution, Kundenmix/ARPU‑Druck und regulatorische Fristen; echte EBITDA‑Hebel erwartet ab 2028.
AT&T — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to AT&T's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference call over to our host, Brett Feldman, Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to our fourth quarter call. I am Brett Feldman, Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations for AT&T. Joining me on the call today are John Stankey, our Chairman and CEO; and Pascal Desroches, our CFO.
Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our safe harbor statement. It says that some of our comments today may be forward-looking. As such, they are subject to risks and uncertainties described in AT&T's SEC filings. Results may differ materially. Additional information as well as our earnings materials are available on the Investor Relations website.
With that, I'll turn things over to John Stankey. John?
Thanks, Brett, and Happy New Year to everybody. I appreciate you joining us today. As you can see in our earnings materials, we have a lot to cover. So I'm going to quickly summarize a few highlights from our results and then spend most of my time discussing how our investments in differentiated position support our long-term outlook for improved growth and significant capital returns. After that, Pascal will provide a little more color on our fourth quarter performance, planned changes to our segment reporting next quarter and key drivers of our financial guidance through 2028. So our prepared comments are probably going to run a little bit longer than usual, but we'll allow a little extra time to take your questions.
During our Analyst and Investor Day at the end of 2024, we outlined our path to become the best advanced connectivity provider in America, and I believe our team executed well against this strategy in 2025. We met or exceeded all of our consolidated full year financial guidance, driven by another solid year of 5G and fiber subscriber growth. We reported over 1.5 million postpaid phone net adds for the fifth consecutive year and over 1 million AT&T Fiber net adds for the eighth consecutive year. We also accelerated the growth of AT&T Internet Air with 875,000 net adds, which more than doubled our customer base from where we began the year. The result of this operating momentum was the best year for consumer broadband subscriber growth in a decade. This strong growth is a result of over 5 years of executing a sustainable investment-led business model that centers on providing customers with all of their advanced connectivity needs from one trusted provider.
We also made progress on many of our capital allocation commitments in 2025. During the first half of the year, we achieved our target of net debt to adjusted EBITDA in the 2.5x range and commenced a share repurchase program. Overall, we returned over $12 billion to our shareholders through dividends and buybacks, which was more than a 50% increase from 2024.
Our improved financial flexibility and confidence in our investment thesis also positioned us to make opportunistic strategic investments that benefit our customers and ultimately, our shareholders. This includes our agreements to acquire spectrum licenses from EchoStar and fiber assets from Lumen, and we continue to expect both these transactions to close early this year. These transactions represent key building blocks that significantly expand the total addressable market for our advanced connectivity services in the years ahead.
Our investments in 5G and fiber, both organically and through our acquisitions, have positioned us to accelerate and scale the execution of our strategy in 2026. This includes the pace of our fiber expansion. Within our traditional operating region, we continue to expect that our annual pace of fiber construction will ramp from 3 million new locations in 2025 to a run rate of 4 million by the end of this year. We also expect to accelerate the availability of our fiber Internet services outside of these areas following our acquisition of Lumen's fiber assets and build capabilities. Including Gigapower and the fiber assets that we're acquiring from Lumen, we expect to reach over 40 million customer locations with our fiber services by the end of this year, up from 32 million at the end of 2025. Beyond 2026, we plan to expand our fiber reach by approximately 5 million locations annually through the end of this decade. We expect this to drive rapid expansion of our opportunity to sell fiber and 5G together to both households and businesses at unmatched scale.
The size and pace of our fiber deployment has positioned us to achieve these objectives with consistent execution and a high degree of capital efficiency. Over the past 2 years, in an inflationary environment, our average deployment cost per fiber passing has increased by approximately 2% annually, and we expect a similar trend over the next 3 years. While our Internet strategy will remain fiber first, our investments in wireless network modernization and spectrum materially expand our opportunity to offer our advanced Internet services over fixed wireless to the right customers in areas where we do not reach with fiber. Today, we're able to offer advanced Internet services over fiber or 5G to over 90 million customer locations across the country.
You can see the benefits of our scale and the improved growth of our advanced home Internet connections. During each of the past 2 quarters, we've added over 0.5 million combined AT&T fiber and Internet Air customers, which is nearly 30% growth in net adds versus the second half of 2024. Our convergence strategy is a winning play, both structurally and in the market. During the fourth quarter, we once again saw acceleration in the portion of AT&T fiber customers that also have our wireless services. Our fiber convergence rate climbed 200 basis points year-over-year to 42%, which is our fastest annual increase since we began tracking this metric. This is further evidence that where we have fiber, we win with fiber and 5G.
The impact of this success on our wireless business is material. We estimate that our share of postpaid phone subscribers is 10 percentage points higher in areas where we offer fiber and in areas where we don't. The power of our converged offers is evident across our business. In areas where we offer converged services, we rank #1 in brand love and #1 in Net Promoter Score with consumers and small businesses in both wireless and Internet connectivity. And we're #1 or #2 with medium-sized businesses and enterprises. Scores for our converged offers are not simply better than our stand-alone services, they're improving in most categories. So it's no surprise that our converged customers remain our most valuable, lower churn and a propensity to take higher Internet speeds, attach more wireless lines and stay with us longer.
Our acquisition of Lumen fiber assets, which we expect to close in short order, is a key example of how we positioned AT&T to materially improve share in the home Internet and wireless. We're acquiring a fiber network with only 25% customer penetration, well below AT&T fiber penetration of 40%. We estimate that fewer than 20% of these customers also subscribe to our wireless services. This is less than half of the convergence rate we've achieved in our current fiber footprint. We already have extensive wireless distribution in Lumen geographies. And soon, we'll have the network assets and deployment capabilities needed to offer customers a better choice for connectivity at home and on the go.
When we complete our work at the fiber location, we believe we're able to offer that customer access to the Internet on a lower marginal cost structure than any competitor with industry-leading product performance. We see this as a structural advantage that provides us with the flexibility to price and position our fiber services to reach customers in underserved categories and geographies, and ultimately achieve higher penetration. This includes value-conscious consumers who are currently being served by networks with lower capacity and higher marginal costs. Our ability to put the right offer in front of expanding customer opportunity positions AT&T to compete on performance, and value and not by leading with uneconomical device offers. As we accelerate the expansion of our fiber availability, this is how we expect to go to market, with offers and marketing strategies that yield attractive returns by driving deeper fiber penetration and growth in high-value converged customer relationships.
We're also making progress towards our goal of discontinuing legacy services in the large majority of our footprint by the end of 2029. We stopped the sales of all targeted legacy copper-based services in 85% of our wire centers. The FCC has approved our applications to discontinue copper-based services in more than 30% of our wire centers by the end of 2026. We appreciate the FCC and Chairman Carr's continued recognition, the importance of modernizing communications infrastructure, and remain committed to supporting our customers every step of the way.
The transformation of our network and support infrastructure is also driving the transformation of our cost structure as we benefit from open technologies, simplify our business processes and deliver a better customer experience. Last year, we achieved over $1 billion of cost savings, and we plan to accelerate efficiency gains across the company by leveraging AI, moving more customer transactions to digital and achieving greater operating leverage as we grow our customer base.
We've been investing at the top of our industry for years, and we expect this to continue based on the capital investment outlook we provided through 2028. This outlook anticipates that our major capital projects will be substantially completed by the end of 2030 or sooner. As we complete these investments, we expect our capital intensity to decline from a high-teens percent of revenue to the mid-teens, driving higher durable long-term cash flow. But our shareholders will see the benefit much sooner. We believe the nature of our sustained investments and execution against the priorities I just outlined position us to drive improved growth now. That's exactly what's reflected in our long-term outlook.
Over the next 3 years, we expect to drive accelerated growth in adjusted EBITDA, double-digit adjusted EPS growth and strong free cash flow. We also expect to return $45 billion plus to our shareholders over the next 3 years through our attractive dividend and consistent pace of share repurchases. This represents nearly 30% of our market cap and over 75% of our expected free cash flow. Over time, we expect that our improved growth, declining capital intensity, and higher free cash flow will provide us with even greater flexibility to support enhanced shareholder returns.
Over the past 5 years, we've evolved how we operate our business to be investment led, customer-centric and focused on being the best advanced connectivity company in America. This has changed how we talk about our company, and I think it reflects how we see industry assets reordering to compete with our success. So beginning with our first quarter results, we plan to adopt new segment reporting that aligns with this reality, the ongoing transformation of our company through the end of this decade. Pascal will walk you through the details of our planned new segment reporting and long-term guidance in just a moment. At a high level, we'll begin reporting the growth in our domestic wireless and fiber-based businesses, which we refer to as advanced connectivity, separate from the results of our legacy operations. By separating the performance of our advanced connectivity business from our declining legacy segment, we believe investors will have greater transparency into the returns we're generating on our growth investments in 5G and fiber.
I'd like to close by reiterating a point that I made last quarter, which is that this is a great time to be in our industry. In my career, I've never seen federal policy this supportive of market-based investment in advanced networks. This welcome policy stance has been adopted at the front end of an AI revolution that we expect to increase the need for dense fiber networks and more symmetrical connectivity into and out of homes, businesses and devices. We operate in a competitive marketplace. This is not new, and neither are the keys to success, which you're investing in best-in-class technologies at scale in order to provide customers with connectivity that they can depend on at a good value. This is a winning play. And by running it well, I'm confident that we'll lead our industry in advanced connectivity service revenue and adjusted EBITDA by the end of this decade.
With that, I'll turn it over to Pascal. Pascal?
Thanks, John. We had a strong finish in the year and met or exceeded all of our 2025 financial guides. In my view, one of the key takeaways from our fourth quarter performance is that it demonstrates our continued success at driving profitable growth even in a competitive operating environment.
We achieved over 4% growth in consolidated adjusted EBITDA during the fourth quarter, while expanding adjusted EBITDA margins by 20 basis points. This reflects the margin gains we achieved from growth in 5G, fiber and fixed wireless service revenues, driven by gains in convergence relationships while taking cost out across the company. We are also winning with the right customers, with the right offers, and we believe that our investment-led convergence strategy positions us to sustain profitable growth over the next several years.
Before I cover our long-term outlook, I want to highlight a few items from our fourth quarter and full year results. Adjusted EPS grew by over 20% in the fourth quarter to $0.52 and nearly 9% for the year to $2.12. This was above our 2025 guidance for adjusted EPS at the higher end of the $1.97 to $2.07 range, with the upside primarily driven by a lower-than-expected effective tax rate and solid growth in adjusted EBITDA. Full year free cash flow was $16.6 billion, which grew by over $1 billion and came in towards the higher end of our 2025 guidance in the low to mid $16 billion range. This includes cash taxes of $1.1 billion, excluding DIRECTV, which were below the low end of the expected range by approximately $400 million.
However, this cash tax benefit was offset by a decision to accelerate our planned pension funding by a similar amount. So in the quarter, the combination of lower cash taxes and higher pension contributions were effectively neutral to free cash flow. We made a $1.15 billion cash contribution to our employee pension plan in 2025 and expect to contribute an additional $350 million this year. As a result, we remain on track to contribute $1.5 billion of cash tax savings from provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to our employee pension plan by the end of 2026. Looking ahead, we expect annual cash taxes of approximately $1 billion to $1.5 billion through 2028. Our cash tax outlook primarily reflects further assessment of expected savings due to this legislation. Our goal is to put these savings to work over the next 3 years to fund working capital and growth initiatives.
As John discussed, we are planning to adopt new segment reporting beginning with our first quarter 2026 results. Our largest segment going forward will be called Advanced Connectivity, which primarily represents results for our domestic 5G and fiber services. In 2025, Advanced Connectivity drove about 90% of our revenues and over 95% of our adjusted EBITDA on a recast basis, and substantially all of our organic and inorganic investments to support growth in Advanced Connectivity. Our legacy segment represents results from our domestic services provided over our copper-based network. We have a goal of discontinuing a large majority of copper-based services by the end of 2029, and are managing our legacy segment to achieve this outcome.
As John noted, the separation of our Advanced Connectivity results from our domestic legacy operations should provide investors with a better framework for assessing the returns on our investments in 5G and fiber. For example, over the past 2 years, our consolidated adjusted EBITDA grew by over 3% annually, while EBITDA from Advanced Connectivity grew considerably faster at an average of more than 6% annually. We also expanded EBITDA margin in this segment each in the past 2 years, which highlights how we are achieving profitable growth across 5G and fiber services to both consumers and businesses, even in periods of increased competitive activity and while making significant investments to scale our growing fiber and fixed wireless footprint. We've posted materials to our Investor Relations website that recasts our results over the past 3 years under our planned new segments. We also intend to provide results for our Mobility business as a supplemental disclosure for a transitional period.
Now let's talk about where our business is headed. In our earnings release, we provided long-term guidance through 2028 that anticipates improved growth in consolidated financial performance, driven by investments in our Advanced Connectivity segment. Here's how we expect to achieve that growth across our primary service categories. We expect total wireless service revenue growth in the 2% to 3% range annually over the next 3 years. The primary driver of this outlook is growth in consumer and business customer relationships as we continue to gain wireless subscriber share through convergence in areas where we offer fiber and fixed wireless Internet services. Our outlook assumes a relatively stable trend in postpaid phone ARPU as our consistent disciplined approach to pricing is balanced by gains in underpenetrated categories such as value-focused customers as well as growth in converged customer relationships who enjoy a service discount that typically more than offset over time through lower churn and the purchase of additional services.
We also continue to plan for an operating environment with elevated levels of new and existing customers that are eligible for device offers. While this has no impact on our service pricing, it does impact the calculation of ARPU as we amortize a portion of our device offers through our wireless service revenue. This was approximately a 90 basis points headwind to our reported postpaid phone ARPU growth in 2025, and our outlook anticipates a similar headwind this year.
We expect our advanced home Internet service revenues to grow organically by 20% plus annually through 2028, which is consistent with the annual growth we have achieved in these revenues over the past 2 years. The primary driver of this outlook is growth in customer relationships as we expand the reach of AT&T Fiber and the availability of Internet Air as we complete our 5G network modernization and continue to deploy spectrum from our EchoStar transaction.
Our long-term outlook assumes a lower contribution from ARPU growth than we have seen over the past few years. Similar to our approach in wireless, we intend to maintain a consistent approach to home Internet pricing balanced by gains in underpenetrated customer categories at different price points as we materially expand the availability of home Internet services. Our outlook also factors in the portion of our convergence discount that we allocate to Internet services as we grow our converged customer base. We continue to expect that we will close our acquisition of fiber assets from Lumen during the first quarter, which will add approximately $900 million of annualized fiber revenues. So we expect that our reported growth in advanced home Internet revenues in 2026 will exceed 30%.
Our business customers continue to utilize a range of fixed connectivity services at different stages in their life cycles. Over the past few years, growth in our business fiber and advanced connectivity services, which includes fixed wireless, has been more than offset by declines in business transitional and other services, which includes mature product categories such as VPN. Our outlook anticipate that service revenues from business customers across wireless, fiber, and fixed wireless will accelerate over the next several years and more than offset expected continued declines in transitional and other services. Altogether, we expect that total business service revenues within the Advanced Connectivity segment will grow at a low single-digit CAGR through 2028.
We also intend to maintain our cost transformation initiatives across the business. We achieved over $1 billion of cost savings in 2025 and expect to achieve an additional $4 billion annual cost savings by the end of 2028. We expect these savings will be driven by the operating efficiencies John discussed earlier, along with reductions in legacy operations and support costs. Our long-term outlook does not anticipate any material contribution to EBITDA growth from our pending acquisitions until 2028, which is also when we expect these investments to become accretive to adjusted EPS.
Putting this all together, we expect to achieve growth in consolidated adjusted EBITDA in the 3% to 4% range in 2026, improving to 5% or better in 2028. We expect adjusted EPS to be in the $2.25 to $2.35 range in 2026 with a double-digit 3-year CAGR through 2028. For 2026, our outlook for adjusted EPS includes approximately $0.05 of dilution from stand-up costs and higher interest expense related to our transactions with Lumen and EchoStar and an effective tax rate in the 22% range. We also expect depreciation and amortization expense of about $20 billion annually through 2028 as incremental depreciation from our growth investments is offset by the roll-off of depreciated assets that have reached the end of their useful lives. For 2026, we expect free cash flows of $18 billion plus, reflecting primarily growth in adjusted EBITDA, lower pension contributions and lower legal settlements, partially offset by higher capital investments and cash interest. We expect free cash flows to grow by $1 billion plus in 2027 and approximately $2 billion in 2028, driven primarily by growth in adjusted EBITDA.
As John discussed, we have plans to accelerate and scale the execution of our strategy this year, and we expect some upfront investments to drive this outcome will be reflected in our first quarter results. This includes incremental spending as we prepare to integrate and scale the retail operations we've agreed to acquire from Lumen and investments to drive acceleration in the pace of our fiber deployment. We are also lapping approximately $100 million of onetime benefits we disclosed in the first quarter of last year. So in the first quarter of this year, we expect adjusted EBITDA growth to be below the run rate we expect for the full year, with free cash flows in the $2 billion to $2.5 billion range.
Before we take your questions, I want to cover our outlook for capital allocation and capital returns. We ended 2025 with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 2.53x and cash and cash equivalents of $18.2 billion. During the fourth quarter, we closed on a $17.5 billion delayed draw term facility. Based on our strong balance sheet, ability to draw on this facility and our outlook for $18 billion plus of free cash flow in 2026, we are in excellent liquidity position as we plan to close our acquisition of assets from Lumen and EchoStar early this year.
Immediately following the closing of these transactions, we expect our net debt to adjusted EBITDA to increase to approximately 3.2x and then to decline to approximately 3x by year-end as we grow adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. We also expect to receive cash from an equity partner that will also co-invest in the acquired Lumen fiber assets. We continue to expect that our net leverage will return to a level consistent with our target in the 2.5x range within approximately 3 years following the closing of these acquisitions. And we continue to expect that we can achieve our deleveraging objectives by maintaining a consistent approach to capital returns.
In 2025, we returned over $12 billion to shareholders, including over $8 billion in dividends and over $4 billion in share repurchases. As we outlined in our earnings release, we expect to return $45 billion plus to shareholders during 2026 to 2028. Under this capital return plan, we expect to maintain our current common stock dividend with a consistent pace of share repurchases through 2028, including approximately $8 billion of buybacks in 2026. Our Board has authorized an additional $10 billion of share repurchases after we complete buybacks under the current authorization. This means we have the necessary Board approvals to execute our planned share repurchases through approximately the end of next year.
To wrap up, we executed well in 2025 and we're confident that we're positioned to drive improved growth and strong capital returns over the next 3 years. Thanks for listening to our extended presentation. Brett, we're now ready for the Q&A.
Thank you, Pascal. Operator, we are ready to take the first question.
[Operator Instructions]
And while you're assembling that, I want to point out to Jeff McElfresh, our Chief Operating Officer, is joining us for the Q&A portion of the call. Thanks, Rocco.
And our first question today comes from John Hodulik at UBS.
2. Question Answer
Two questions, if I could. First, on the fiber convergence rate, 42%, and increased by 200 basis points. John, where do you expect this level to get to over time, maybe over the course of the decade? And do you expect the sort of rate of penetration to continue to improve from here? And then a follow-up to that, do you think you can play catch-up in the Lumen territory and get to those numbers?
And then second, Consumer Wireline revenue growth looks like it slowed in the quarter. Could you just talk about some of the drivers of that slowdown? I think Pascal, you mentioned some of the discounting going on that side and just how you expect that to progress as we look through '26?
So first of all, I do expect the convergence rate to continue to improve. And we've, I think, shared that we have an objective when we were talking to you in our investor call -- on our investor conference last December that right now, we've got plans in place and we're going to drive that to 50% and feel very comfortable with that. I don't expect it to stop there. You've heard me say many times that I think we're in a structural realignment of the industry. And ultimately, this is going to be an industry of converged providers that operate assets that allow for consolidated services to businesses.
And if I think back, looking in the rearview mirror on history and you look at what bundle rates were when there were other compelling bundles in the market, we approach periods of time where 80% of consumers were bundling, and certainly I would expect that at some point in time, over the long haul, you might see something similar to that occur. Whether it's 75% or 80% or 70%, I don't know where it settles in, but our expectation is that you're going to continue to see improvement in that rate ratably over time.
And in fact, that's the realignment that we're dealing with here, which is as churn goes up on unbundled customers [indiscernible], we're dealing with that problem right now. Ultimately, the fix to that is to get to more consolidated customers that give us a better churn rate. And that, that realignment is what we're betting on in our financials moving forward. And simply put, if we finish this year at 32 -- finish 2025 at 32 million fiber passings and we're going to finish this year at 40 million, just do the math on it, and that's how we're basically driving our revenue growth and our share and controlling our service revenues and what we're doing moving forward.
In terms of our out of -- what I'll call the out of traditional out-of-region footprint, I'll throw Lumen into that right now. We have, traditionally, just like we did with Gigapower, have been more conservative in our business case expectations as to how we perform in those footprints. As I've shared with you previously, we started the Gigapower construct that way. And actually, we see ourselves in the early quarters of Gigapower performing very similarly what we do in region. And whether or not we can hold that dynamic all the way through the life cycle over 3 and 4 years remains to be seen, but I'm really optimistic right now that we've seen better performance than what we might have assumed as we kind of do our traditional financial modeling.
We expect Lumen to be derated a bit, in what I would call terminal penetration, when it's all said and done. But if it's not and we actually perform equal to what we do within our current footprint, that's going to be upside in terms of our business case and our financial modeling and how we think about our future projections that we shared with you in our guidance. So that one will play out over the course of the next couple of years. And I'm confident the team's demonstrated that they can be pretty fluid and creative in how they approach these things. And I'm sure we'll learn some new things and new tactics in how we operate in those markets and allow us to continue to get better.
On the Consumer Wireline side, we were -- I think part of it is if you kind of look at how we've ratably dealt with pricing over the year and try to be clear and, as I've said, look for opportunities where we can add value when we do price adjustments, so we manage the customer base effectively. That certainly has been one of the reasons that we've seen a little bit of a slowing on a comparative year-over-year basis. That doesn't mean that I think we're done with taking price opportunity. I think we're just being very careful and strategic when we do it in an intensely competitive market, and we'll continue to be that way.
Pascal in his comments clearly indicated to you, as we bundle more customers, we are making the decision at the front end to provide some better economics to customers to do that. We think that plays out effectively over time through the form of lower churn. But when you do that, you tend to slow some of your growth on ARPU at the front end as you're adding the second product into the household. Again, as I said on the call, I think last quarter, that's more of a feature, not a buck, and we're being pretty deliberate about it. And when you hear us being able to continue to improve margin structure, even though you're seeing some ARPU dynamics soften a bit, look, that's a good combination, and I'll take that, and I think we can continue to run the business that way given our opportunities for managing through the cost structure.
John, one other thing that I would add is when you think about just the cadence of the quarter, there were some pricing adjustments made probably in the November time frame that didn't have a full quarter effect that will have a full year effect going into 2026. And more importantly, we gave you our forward guide for our expectations of growth in advanced home internet. That's the combination of both our fiber and our fixed wireless products. We expect those to grow organically 20% plus, and that's all before the positive impact of the Lumen territories, which should bring it over 30%. So we feel really good about how we're performing there, and it is right in line with our strategy.
Our next question comes from Benjamin Swinburne at Morgan Stanley.
I guess 2 questions around your long-term outlook. One is whether you guys are saving any capacity for meaningful spectrum investments. There's a potential for a lot -- several auctions over the next couple of years under the current FCC. I know you guys obviously have the EchoStar transaction getting ready to close. But just any envelope for additional spectrum investments or just your view on any needs there would be helpful.
And then, I guess, similar kind of question, more near term, definitely getting more questions from investors about a foldable iPhone and what that might mean in terms of consumer demand and upgrade rates. Just curious if the '26 guidance incorporates any view at AT&T on sort of what that might mean for the business and the competitive environment?
Yes, Ben, let me maybe start and then I can have Jeff give you a little bit more color on the device. Yes, we have reserved capacity for other strategic options. My point of view on spectrum is -- I think I indicated this when we did the EchoStar transaction that by doing this transaction, I viewed it as preemptive and opportunistic for us, that allowed us to be a lot more strategic and judicious about what we do moving forward. And I still believe that's going to be the case.
My point of view right now is that the industry is lining up where there's particular spectrum bands that are most useful to particular players in the industry. And we should see a dynamic moving forward where it's less of a buffet rush with everybody moving for the exact same bands all at the same time. I think that, that could be good over time. And I think we can all pick our moments when it's appropriate to go visit the buffet. And that may not require us to be as aggressive all the time. And I also believe part of the reason that we're so bullish on fiber and why we're investing the way we are is we are getting to a point where networks are densifying and the technology is getting a lot better at price points and how we radiate more deeply in the networks. And we get dynamics of how we offload as we pick up more our combined customers. We have market share dynamics that play out.
One should conclude that given the depth of the networks that are out there today, when we're all hanging 300 megahertz off of the cell tower. This isn't the days where we're growing 10 megahertz at a time on these networks. We've put large swatches of capacity out there. We have a lot more flexibility in how we manage things. And that means that you maybe don't need to think it the same nationally about how you invest in spectrum assets as maybe you have done in the past, and that has a bit of an opportunity for you to think differently about returns in markets and investments as you move forward. But we'll be in a position to do what we need to do to sustain the business. You've heard me talk about how important the spectrum is to this company and our business model, and we pay a lot of attention to it and try to make sure we have the degrees of freedom.
On the foldable iPhone, I just offer a perspective and Jeff can maybe go into a little more color. There are foldable devices in the market today, and they are very capable devices, some really impressive ones. And if you look at the user base who is -- has a strong affinity for those manufacturers and you look at the conversion rate of those that have left nonfoldable devices to foldable, it's pretty predictable as to who sees a foldable device being a good form factor for them. And I think that's a good indicator that if you were to apply those same kind of acceptance factors and put it in and just say just because there's a different manufacturer making them is everybody suddenly going to be more in tune or desirous of a foldable device, the indications in the market would be that, that's not a broadly applicable form factor. It certainly has its place and there's a utility that it brings. But I don't think this is going to be the kind of thing where 80% of the base as they need that form factor. I have to move to it.
Jeff, do you have a point of view?
Not much to add to that, John, other than you should expect that AT&T will remain focused on the acquisition of quality customers. We're very disciplined in offering the right value proposition to the right customer segment. And then we're not anticipating any significant elevation, one way or another, as John just described.
Our next question comes from Peter Supino of Wolfe Research.
Two, if I may. The first -- both on broadband actually, first, regarding your comments on fiber ARPU. I think we all appreciated your point about mix and promotions and how those are accounted for in ARPU. At the same time, Comcast and Charter are behaving differently in terms of the way they price existing customer broadband rates. And so I'm wondering how you're thinking about the price of fiber for your existing subs, your retail rate outlook?
And then a question about FWA growth. Looking out 2 years, it looks like your DSL base will be gone if we just extrapolate the recent decline rates. And I wonder in that scenario, should we expect FWA sales to hold up? And if so, should we worry about a supply-demand problem in high-capacity broadband if that DSL demand goes away and 3 powerful carriers continue to try to grow DSL?
Peter, look, I've said it before, I think we're in a distinctly different place than cable. One is we currently sit under their pricing umbrella. We're not at their levels. So we have a lot more degrees of freedom in how we manage our ARPUs and our various offers in the market that they have. So it's one thing. I understand why they're having to make the changes they're making. They're priced higher and their product is inferior. And so they're the ones that's having to readjust to the market, not us. We've got the better product and we're priced lower. And that's why this is a problem for them.
And as a result of that, I think we've got all the actions we need. When you think about the fact that we have owner's economics on both our products, we can play with the value across and we don't have to run one product to [ 0 ] to make the other one worthwhile to somebody. I just think we're in a great place for us to be able to manage our value to the customer and what we bring out to them. And when you're doing it on the foundation of a better product, that's a good thing.
I made the point I made in my comments for a reason. How do we continue to win and grow and share. We continue to grow our footprint, 32 million fiber passings at the end of 2025, 40 million at the end of this year. That's a growth rate that is -- we've never had that. And it's going to be 5 million a year thereafter. And when we work on that base and you have a product that people love, they love it. It's #1. I said that for a reason. It's priced competitively in the market. It performs better. You put a great wireless product with it. You have all the tailwinds you need to be able to continue to do the right things in the market. And there's a structural advantage on how that technology works and performs as well as the cost of operating it once it's in service and what you do with it.
And then, yes, the DSL base is going to go away. That's by design and the plan. It probably can't happen fast enough. We're working really hard to try to make that done -- get that done in a graceful fashion. The fact that we have access to the EchoStar spectrum has helped us tremendously in managing a lot of those customers into the right place and allows us to preposition a bridge product in some cases before we have fiber deployed under this aggressive rate and pace that we're working through.
And I don't worry about a supplier demand problem. Market really isn't growing too much today, and it's pretty [ state ] given the lack of home movement. So it's a tough environment right now. It probably won't stay that way. At some point, I expect home switching to probably increase at some point, and that's going to be to our advantage when that happens because it will open up a whole bunch of choices and jump balls that don't occur today that we're going to win more than our fair share on.
And when I step back and think about the supply and demand, we win because we have a better product. And I'll take share as a result of that. And so no, I don't worry about it. We have -- if you've noticed, our conversion rate on our fiber customers have been dropping like rock. Most of our growth right now is in new accounts. So we know how to play in this market. We're giving you volume today, and we're going to continue to do it.
Jeff, you want to add anything?
No. You've nailed it.
Our next question today comes from Michael Rollins at Citi.
A couple of questions on wireless. So first, can you discuss the macro factors that you may be seeing that can influence postpaid phone growth for AT&T in 2026, whether it's population growth, including immigration, demographics, business and the prepaid to postpaid transfers?
And then second, how is AT&T responding to the promotional changes from your competitors to sustain your financial performance? And within this context, AT&T maintained the annual wireless service revenue growth guide of 2% to 3%. And as you look into that, I'm curious if there's different contributing factors with respect to price and volume relative to what you anticipated when you established the target during the Analyst Day.
Jeff, you want to pick that up? I want to take a sip of tea.
Yes, happy to. Thanks for the question, Mike. At a macro level, it's no surprise that the wireless industry itself is penetrated and very mature. And so you do see a lot of switching activity that's occurring between competitors. Are there macro factors that are slowing incremental new entrants into the traditional postpaid voice? Certainly, there is some aspect to that. But from our perspective, the plays that we've been running in this competitive environment have delivered not only growth in our margins, but overall growth in customers. And so we're able to withstand some of the competitive dynamics.
As we mentioned before, and John has alluded to earlier in his remarks, we still see incremental opportunity in underpenetrated segments for AT&T. And those segments are being served at a growing accelerated rate for us with the plays that we're running around convergence. We still don't have the share we aspire to have in some value-conscious price-sensitive segments, I think [ 55 plus ] 1 to 2 line accounts and as well in the small and medium business segment, both of which we're seeing some success, and interestingly enough, we're seeing success in those segments as a result of our go-to-market convergence strategy.
John kind of alluded to this a second ago, the actual number of accounts that we see that we're growing, it's not just adding wireless customers to existing fiber accounts, but we're actually pulling existing wireless counts adding fiber and the new accounts that we're establishing in the market are from many of these growth segments. So from that perspective, we plan for the competitive intensity to continue. It's not as though it's going to abate. And the playbook that we have proof points that we're winning in, we're going to continue to execute that.
John mentioned this expansion of growth opportunity. The funnel is going to grow incredibly here in 2026. A couple of points that he called out in his prepared remarks. We've got [ pen ] rates and fiber inside the Lumen footprint at 20 -- 20%, 25% and we've got attach rates of AT&T Mobility services in that base by our estimate, somewhere around 20%. So there's immediate opportunity for AT&T to continue to grow, to continue to provide value to customers with a superior set of products, and all of that is factored into the guidance that we've offered.
Our next question comes from Sebastiano Petti with JPMorgan.
I guess, Pascal, one quick clarification question. Does the year-end leverage target, does that assume some level of cash inflows from the Lumen JV and just, I guess, monetizing a portion of that with a network partner?
And then I guess second question for Jeff and or John, just helping us think about -- as I think about the shape of the fiber build [ taste ], John, you talked about going from 32 million to 40 million exiting the year, can you help us think about what does that mean from a seasonality perspective as we think about FWA and fiber over -- net additions over the course of the year? I mean, similar to prior years is 1.5. Look, the second half [indiscernible] higher than first half in terms of net additions there. And then I guess, what, if any, distribution changes should we be thinking about as it relates to fiber and FWA, whether it's may be training the stores, opening up distribution channels? Just help us maybe think about the shaping there as well.
Sebastiano, a couple of points I noted in my remarks. We have -- we expect to close on an equity partner later on this year, which will bring us some proceeds associated with the percentage of the assets that they acquire. And we also expect to grow our EBITDA during the course of the year, which should also help in our overall leverage target. So we feel really good about our ability to do both.
Sebastiano, I expect there's going to continue to be seasonality in our broadband dynamic. And I think that the consumer part of it, which is the bigger part, we'll probably always have that to some degree. And yes, there'll be better volumes in the second half of the year than the first half of the year. Third quarter will be better than fourth quarter.
And as I -- I think I tried to share all -- with all of you when I was at one of the conferences late in the fourth quarter that there would be some down seasonality in fixed wireless that would occur in the fourth quarter, but none of you listened in your estimate changes. But -- so I do think that's just going to be part of the dynamic that we're all going to work through. And that's perfectly okay.
Now offsetting some of that seasonality as we have footprint expansion. And so we have -- even though there's seasonality to it, when you have an opportunity to sell that increases, you're going to have some volume that comes in as a result of that. And that's going to be really hard for all of you to estimate this year because not only do you have footprint increases, but we have a ramping dynamic we're going to be working through.
We have closed the Lumen transaction in a record time or we will close it in a record time, I'm projecting. And as a result of that, that means we've had a more compressed time to be able to do the preplanning you would normally do at the day of close, to be able to operationally turn up those assets and move forward. And we have some things that we're going to have to continue to finish up and ramp and scale to get to be our best self.
We're going to execute on this asset in a way that we are normalizing products between the 2 operating companies. You're going to do all the things that you should do when you do a transaction like this, which is rationalize your information technology infrastructure, standardize positions on brands in the market, go to common ways of driving the supply chains and engineering and putting data into databases and all those things. And that's some hard and challenging stuff. We have all that planned out. In many cases, we're in pretty good shape. But I know that for the first quarter or 2, we're going to be on a learning curve on some of that stuff with people from a different company having to learn some new processes and new ways of doing things.
So that ramp dynamic on that footprint is going to take a little bit of time. And that will factor into clouding "seasonality" as you think about those things. You've got to ramp dynamics, you've got seasonality. You've got a larger footprint. You have offers that are going to be moved in the market, training that has to be done for individuals that are going to be distributing and selling those products. So I think it's going to be a little bit challenging for all of you to kind of just go back and look in the rearview mirror and come up with the dynamic around it, and we'll give you some updates. But you should expect we're going to be on probably a solid 2-quarter ramp here of getting ourselves up the learning curve and getting more effective.
And Jeff, why don't you make some comments on some of the distribution changes we have lined up?
And so our distribution assets that are in the Lumen footprint and territory are already there, and we've got a solid position just as we did with our Gigapower experiences in the markets out of footprint that we were building. And as you should expect that our product offers and our ability to service that base will be available in short order, akin to the commentary that John made.
I mean, the pace at which the team is moving to get this transaction closed is record setting. It's akin to the speed at which we lifted the initial tranche of the [ 3 4 5 ] EchoStar spectrum up on our wireless network. That, too, in terms of fixed wireless, we expect to sell more this year than we did last year. The ramping of that will occur nationwide as our AT&T Internet advertising and messaging to build top of funnel awareness hits the marketplace in full force, and you should expect that to continue to ramp as the year goes by.
At the end, we are focused on building a durable long-term sustainable build engine inside of the Lumen footprint just like we are in our organic footprint, and the distribution changes that we have to support activating that network in each of the footprints is a play that we know how to run. We don't anticipate many changes to our go-to-market distribution strategy from what's already proven to be a winning play.
Our next question comes from Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs.
I just have two. First, I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the EBITDA growth inflection to 5% plus in 2028. What are the key drivers? Is it more on advanced EBITDA growth accelerating or the legacy declines improving? And then any thoughts on 2027 and just the linearity as we think about the next 3 years? And I just have a quick follow-up.
Sure thing, Michael. Here's the thing to think about that we are going through. This year, we're bringing in the Lumen assets. We're going to incur a pretty significant acquisition -- initial cost to integrate those assets and to build this -- and to add to the distribution behind them. We expect those to moderate as you look out the next 2, 3 years.
Plus, we've mentioned to you, we are -- those assets haven't been fully penetrated. And over time, more and more of those assets will become penetrated contributing to earnings growth. That, coupled with the fact that each year that goes by, you have less and less of a contribution or dilution from our legacy footprint. Those things in combination gives us great confidence we're going to be able to drive an acceleration of EBITDA growth as you work your way through each year of the plan.
Perfect. And -- yes, just on mobility service margins, really strong in the quarter. I think the fourth quarter was the first time this year it was up on a year-over-year basis, which seems positive just given all the concerns around competition. I was just wondering if there's anything you would call out from a cost perspective that may have been particularly impactful this quarter relative to the rest of 2025 and maybe some of the key cost initiatives as we go over time. You guys talked about AI and digital transactions, but just would love to hear about anything notable for the quarter and the next year.
Mike, look, across the board, we continue to do a really good job of managing all the costs that are not geared towards customer growth. This -- in 2025, we incurred a pretty significant step-up in customer acquisition costs along with advertising. And those -- if you strip those out and you look at the underlying business, it was pretty substantial cost savings. You can see some of those dynamics in our trending schedules, and it's across the board.
You look at where we -- what we are doing, whether it's in AI, shuttering legacy footprint and the underlying infrastructure, all those things are contributing. And we expect that to continue. In fact, we expect the next 3 years to say $4 billion -- more than $4 billion in cost, and it's a muscle we have built, and I feel really good about our ability to do so as you look ahead.
We promised we'd give you a little extra time because we went a little long on the prepared remarks. So operator, you can go ahead and take one more question here.
Absolutely. And our next question comes from Sam McHugh of BNP.
Two questions, if I can. First, on bad debt. I think it steps up a little bit in this quarter. I don't know if you could give us some color on what you're seeing amongst consumers at the moment?
And then secondly, the guidance and cost cutting and accelerated EBITDA growth. What are we thinking about in terms of cost reduction? Obviously, you've kind of stepped back from giving color on cost reductions. I don't know if you could talk about what you're seeing over the next few years and whether they just accelerate as we decommission copper through the outlook period?
Sam, a couple of things. On bad debt, what I would tell you is this. It's really -- we haven't seen any discernible changes in consumer payment patterns. The increase in bad debt is a function of the higher equipment sales that we have that come -- that often comes with long-term receivables and along with just higher service revenues. That's really what's driving the overall dynamics in bad debt.
And as it relates to our overall cost plan, as I mentioned in my commentary is we expect about over $4 billion over the next 3 years of cost savings. And I would tell you, it is across the board. Yes, legacy decommissioning will contribute pretty significantly to it. But other areas, we are garnering productivity gains through the use of digital, through the use of AI, and we expect that to continue. And it's a muscle we have built over the last several years and have a high degree of confidence we're going to be able to continue to execute on that.
Yes. I maybe add something to think about here, Sam, in terms of what we've been doing. We are investing at high levels, and I acknowledge that we're doing that. And we expect that we need to demonstrate returns and improvement as a result of those decisions to invest at a higher level. We talk a lot about what we're doing on the network side and how that's driving revenues and share and opportunity there. We haven't spent a lot of time.
We're investing at high levels in our software technology base in this business to improve our ability to face off against customers be more agile in the market, take advantage of some of the things that Pascal just talked about from a digital perspective that I think you're going to see a lot of movement on this year. But what's important to understand is we're investing at pretty high levels there. We're getting very large increases in our productivity for the software we're developing and writing right now.
So we haven't pulled back our investment because of the effectiveness or efficiency savings. We're getting more done and we intend to get more done because there's a lot of good opportunities to apply improvements in software and how we change our processes than what we've traditionally been able to fit through the funnel. And as a result of that increased capacity and improvements and effectiveness, we can see a lot more of these projects now start to drop through.
And so we did a nice job this year in managing our cost structure and business as an example, and I will tell you that, that's an artifact of us having been able to do some more work on software to improve our labor cost structure in that area than what we probably would have guessed we could have done 24 months ago. And so we kept investment levels up. We use that extra capacity to go do a few more things. We get benefits from cost on it. And I guess the good news is, and I think my team's tired of me hearing about it is, I keep turning over rocks and seeing more opportunities to go after things, and we go after things. And I'm not worried about running out of rocks to turn over. So I think it's just a matter of us executing around it.
Operator, we'll take one last question, and then we'll turn it back to John for a few final thoughts.
Absolutely. And our final question today comes from Michael Funk of Bank of America.
Yes. Great. John, a quick one for you and a quick follow-up for Pascal, if I could. So looking at your national advertising right now, the converged offering, very little differentiation provided between fiber and fixed wireless. So just wondering how you're thinking about maybe we're rifle shot targeting FWA for the remainder of 2026 and your view on the market opportunity there.
Mike, we didn't just fit you in. We had a plan to make sure you could be in. So it's good to hear from you.
The -- look, we spent a lot of time paying attention to where customers' understanding are of our products and our perceptions, and that's discrete for consumer and business. And we believe, and we've done a lot of AV testing on this and we know this, that actually we have more to gain right now from a broader, I'll call it, a generic Internet message than at the national level, a targeted message. We want to build awareness that AT&T is a capable national Internet provider across consumers and business broadly, and we have a lot of upside in the customer base to do that and our tracking of our advertising, our approach on that would suggest we've made some really good calls around that, and it's helping.
What we then do is we come underneath that with, as you refer to with the targeted rifle shot. There are other ways to go put the targeted rifle shot in front of the right customer in the right place. And this is fundamental and core to our strategy, which is right product, right customer, right place. And you can use digital means and you can use information on our customer base and third-party information to go and put the right offer in front of the right customer that matches up to the technology that we have in the particular geography that then comes in and builds and extends on that national message that you're referring to.
So we track a lot of things, as you might guess, and we're looking at -- do people have an awareness of AT&T as a leading fiber provider? Where are we -- where does it not match up against where we got inventory to go sell? You can do things on that given it's a very geographic and regionally centric business to do things below the national level to bolster those kinds of things that you may not see based on where your home residents is and what you do, and you should want us to do it that way because at the end of the day, capabilities like fiber are local, and you want to be very, very discreet about how you do things. Now having said that, when you get up to 60 million fiber footprint, your decisions on where you do certain things in the funnel are going to change than when you're at 30 million. So you'll see an evolution of this over time. I hope that gives you enough context on it.
Okay. And with that, I'd -- go ahead.
I'm sorry, Pascal, can I ask one of you as well. You mentioned you expect handset amortization to basically be flat year-over-year, I think, in 2026. Just curious what that says about your view of wireless competition in the marketplace or AT&T's willingness to compete?
Yes. A couple of things, Michael, to keep in mind. One, my commentary was that we expect about the same level of headwinds that we saw this year on a percentage basis. Overall, I think, John, laid this out in his remarks, our basis of competition is going to be a bit different than our peers. Ours is about using our broadening base of fiber customers to drive additional converged relationships. That's our priority when we are looking at our investment spend. And that -- we will be much more disciplined outside of those areas. Therefore, I think on balance, we are confident in our ability to manage the overall ARPU dynamic despite having to incur the additional promotional costs.
All right. With that, I really appreciate you all joining us this morning and maybe spending a few extra minutes, given we wanted to kind of refresh guidance and give you a little insight into what we're going to be doing after we bring on some of these additional assets. So we've now kind of shared that plan with you. And I think what we've outlined is a view of the future of how we're not only going to report in this business, but how we're going to operate it.
And I appreciate your patience and understanding in our segment adjustments. I know it's more work for all of you. We didn't take this lightly. We're going to try to assist you through it and make sure that we can get you through it in a way where you view it as being completely transparent and more insightful for how we're operating the business [indiscernible]. But look, I think the numbers speak for themselves when we start to talk to you about how we're generating profits in this business and how we're investing. The time has come for us to look at things differently. And the shift that's occurring in this industry is pretty significant. And as a result of that, it's time for us to adjust and make these changes.
We have the right assets in hand after we close these transactions in front of us, in my view. And frankly, it's up to us and it's entirely in our control as to how we deliver on this plan that we just laid out for you and shared with you today. And I feel really good about that. And I feel like we're entering the fund cycle here in what's been a bit of a slog over the last couple of years to get us in a position to do these kinds of things.
I believe that we have the right regulatory environment for us to operate this business in. I think the incentives to invest in this industry are strong and good right now. I think AT&T has put forward the right technical and technology direction, and our foundation in that regard sets us up with an ability to differentiate. I think we have the right position structurally in this industry as things are changing fairly dramatically and as we start to approach what's going to be a very, very clear increase in importance and connectivity with the dawn of AI.
And I believe strongly, we've got the right team in place to do this that is clear on their mission and their charter. And the combination of those things, I think, should give you a lot of confidence that we can deliver on this plan moving forward. And we look forward to coming back and reporting with you on our progress. So thank you very much for your time.
Thank you. That concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
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AT&T — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
AT&T — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Postpaid Netto: Über 1,5 Mio. Postpaid-Phone-Nettozugänge im Jahr 2025 (fünfter Jahr in Folge mit >1,5 Mio.).
- AT&T Fiber: >1 Mio. Nettozugänge 2025; Fiber-Passings von 32 Mio. Ende 2025 auf erwartete 40 Mio. Ende 2026.
- Internet Air: 875.000 Nettozugänge 2025; Kundenbasis mehr als verdoppelt gegenüber Jahresbeginn.
- Adjusted EPS: $0,52 im Q4 (+~20% YoY), $2,12 für 2025; Ergebnis lag am oberen Ende der Guidance ($1,97–$2,07).
- Cash & EBITDA: Bereinigtes EBITDA wuchs Q4 um >4% mit +20bps Marge; Free Cash Flow 2025: $16,6 Mrd.; Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA 2,53x Ende 2025.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Konvergenzfokus: Strategie setzt auf simultanes Wachstum von 5G und Fiber; höhere Cross‑Sell‑Raten (Fiber‑Konvergenz 42% → Ziel 50%+ langfristig).
- Akquisitionen: EchoStar‑Spektrum und Lumen‑Fiber sollen Marktreichweite signifikant erhöhen; Lumen‑Gebiete mit nur ~25% Penetration bieten Upside.
- Segmentbericht: Ab Q1 2026 neues Reporting: "Advanced Connectivity" (5G+Fiber) getrennt von Legacy, für bessere Transparenz der Investitionsrenditen.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- EBITDA‑Wachstum: Konsolidiertes bereinigtes EBITDA +3–4% in 2026, ≥5% in 2028.
- EPS & FCF: Adjusted EPS 2026 erwartet $2,25–$2,35; Free Cash Flow 2026 $18 Mrd.+, +$1 Mrd. 2027, +$2 Mrd. 2028.
- Capex & Leverage: Fiber‑Build 2026: Run‑Rate 4 Mio. Passings; Capex‑Intensität sinkt langfristig von high‑teens% zu mid‑teens; Hebel steigt kurz auf ~3,2x nach Abschlüssen, Ziel ~2,5x in ~3 Jahren.
- Kapitalrückfluss: $45 Mrd.+ Rückgaben 2026–2028; ~ $8 Mrd. Buybacks 2026; zusätzliche $10 Mrd. Autorisierung vorhanden.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Konvergenzrate: Management sieht weitere Steigerung (Ziel ~50%); langfristig könnten Bundlingsraten deutlich höher liegen, aber Timing unklar.
- Lumen‑Integration: Diskussion zu Penetrationsannahmen, Saisonalität und operativer Ramp‑Up‑Phase (erwartet 2 Quartale Lernkurve nach Close).
- Preis/ARPU und FWA: Fragen zu ARPU‑Verlauf, Wettbewerbsdruck, Rolle von Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) als Brückenprodukt; AT&T betont selektive Preismaßnahmen und bessere Produktperformance vs. Kabel.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Kurzfassung: Call bestätigt Übergang zu einem klaren Growth‑Narrativ: 5G+Fiber treiben Profitabilität und Cashflow; kurzfristig höhere Investitionen und temporär höherer Hebel durch Lumen/EchoStar, mittelfristig höhere EPS, FCF und substanzielle Kapitalrückflüsse für Aktionäre. Wichtige Beobachtungspunkte: erfolgreiche Integration von Lumen, Entwicklung der Konvergenzrate und die neue Segmentberichterstattung.
AT&T — UBS Global Media and Communications Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
We will get started. I'm John Hodulik, the media and telecom analyst here at UBS. And I'm pleased to announce our next speaker, John Stankey, the Chairman and CEO of AT&T. John, thanks for being here.
Always good to be here. It's always the mark of the end of the year approaching, so kind of right of passage. I enjoy it.
Yes. Great. We certainly have the Christmas weather for this week.
Yes, we do. And maybe I can just quickly reference you to our safe harbor statement. I think we're going to talk about some things that are oriented toward the future this morning. Some of them are subject to risk and uncertainty. Results may vary materially from what we discuss. And if you'd like more information, there's a lot of scintillating reading on our Investor Relations website that you're welcome to go and look at and research.
Perfect. A little over a year ago, you hosted an Analyst and Investor Day where you and the team detailed the strategy and provided long-term targets and capital return plans. How would you rate your progress executing against that strategy over the past year?
I'm really pleased, and I'm really pleased with what the team has done. I think it's been right on the mark and very consistent with what we laid out, not only in terms of what we set out on financial objectives for the business, but how the industry is taking shape and what we've seen happen and why we were doing the things we were doing to respond to kind of what we thought was an evolution in the communications sector. But if you went down and said where are we on our operating profits and revenues, you look at what we've done on cost control, all those things are very, very consistent with what we laid out.
You go down each of the guidance indicators we gave, most notably we said EBITDA at 3% or better, it will be better. So feel real good about that. And a lot of that is on the back of operating efficiency because we've had to compete more aggressively and do some things out in the market to maintain our growth, which I think we've done well, and the team has reacted incredibly well in terms of how we balance the portfolio, the things that we do to deliver on those results. Of course, where we are in cash, and we'll be doing very consistent with what we outlined on that.
So I would say from financial performance metrics, getting ourselves in a position where the balance sheet was where we said it was going to be at 2.5x adjusted net debt to EBITDA range, starting our return of capital to shareholders, we'll finish $4 billion of buybacks by the end of the year, which is probably a bit more accelerated than what we said at the Analyst Day. So I apologize for buying back more stock this year than we've kind of indicated we might do.
And look, I think some of the decisions we've made to position the company better, the decision to pick up the fiber assets from Lumen, what we did with EchoStar, those are all consistent with what we laid out at the Investor Day around what we would do if we had opportunity presented to us in capital. And I think we've executed them in a way that's consistent with the commitments we made back to the investor base to hold to the guidance and the direction that we set out while at the same time strengthening the business. So all in, I feel like it was a really good year for us and very consistent with what we laid out in terms of the direction of the company.
Great. That's a great overview. Why don't we start with wireless. There's some change in the wireless industry. We have 2 new CEOs in the space. How would you gauge the current sort of competitive operating environment? And just your thoughts on sort of Verizon's new focus on volume growth?
Yes, it's competitive. And I don't know if I would characterize it, John, as there's a new focus on volume growth. I think most of the competitors in our space have been focused on volume growth. Maybe there's a desire to try some new tactics or approaches to see if they can get different results. But I think whether it's a new CEO or the old CEO or anybody else, teams have been intensely focused on doing well and competing in the markets. And we've responded to that, and over the course of my 5-year tenure, a little over 5 years, there's been a number of different shifts and plays that have occurred, and we continue to adjust to those and you continue to see us deliver consistent performance.
I think more than maybe at any other time in the industry, as competitive as it is, it's not one-dimensional competition. So you can't just walk out into the market and say, my message is, I've got this, the best network, or my message is this, I got lowest prices or what have you. It's now about what you do across a spectrum of things. And so the company that executes in a more balanced fashion is able to deliver on a variety of things, I think has the opportunity to do well in the market, and we've been focused on that as a company for the last 5 years in improving our service levels.
I've shared with you in previous sessions how there's been a steady uptick in us improving what we're doing with customers. We're still not where we need to be. We're not the best yet, but we have dramatically closed the gaps to some of our competitors, and in some cases, caught them. And so we'll continue on that march. We have been doing things to make our network better in wireless. We made a demonstrative step in that direction here in the last couple of months with what we've done with EchoStar, and I think that's going to be the next big step that we're going to enjoy in 2026.
We have the best fixed broadband product out there, bar none unequivocally, and we built that franchise in an incredibly strong way. We have gotten to be much more effective in our cost structure that allows us to promote, compete and go after the right converged customers, and we're playing our strategy around that and starting to add benefits to a customer as to why they converge with AT&T. And all those things together are what makes you effective in the market. And it's not, okay, this week, we decided we're going to go pull this lever and that's going to fix everything. It just doesn't work that way right now. So I feel really comfortable with where we're at. And I don't necessarily see the CEO changes per se as being a catalyst. It's just another event that we're going to react to as we do every other time there's a competitive dynamic shift in the market.
It makes sense. I hate to ask about pulling those levers, but just -- we just came out of Black Friday, big holiday selling season starts. A lot of the adds in the quarter really start from sort of that selling period on. Just did you see anything that was unusual this season versus what we've seen in previous holiday?
Not really. I mean it was aggressive as we expected it would be. I don't think I saw anything that was dramatically out of pattern. It didn't cause us to go in and say, we picked the wrong strategy, or we had the wrong plan about how we were choosing to go to market during this period of time. I think, on the margin, you can see in some of the offers that are out there, there's adjustments that have been made on eligibility and those types of things to try to maybe attack certain cohorts differently, but those are tweaks around the edges. They are not fundamental shifts.
You saw us affirm our guidance last night that you should take that as an indication that we're comfortable in our performance and what's going on is consistent with what we expected. Is it chippy? Yes, it's chippy. And is it causing us to have to be really focused on getting the right customers that matter to our business over the long haul, invest heavier in converged customers, those who can buy multiple products from us, and make sure that we're putting our best investments against that as opposed to a net add for net adds sake and maybe a low-value wireless customer that doesn't ultimately bring back return to us over their life cycle? Of course, it is. But I think the team is getting better and better at doing that every quarter, and I'm confident we've learned a few things from last year that made us better this year, and we'll learn a few things this year that will make us better next year.
Great. AT&T's competitive focus appears to be evolving with new emphasis on the value segment and SMB and also leaning in on conversions. Can you explain sort of what led to this next stage, and how that sort of alters the sort of price/volume sort of equation for AT&T?
Yes. I said this on the call, I think I've used the phrase when we talked about last quarter earnings that it's a feature, not a bug that ARPU has moderated a bit. And that's partly because we have looked at particular cohorts of customers that we think we're underpenetrated in, including places where we can buy converged customers. Senior community is a good example. They typically buy both a fixed connection and a mobile connection. Our share wasn't where we wanted it to be. And when we found that we either had an underlying fixed subscriber that we could move mobile or didn't have anything, we wanted to be a little bit more aggressive than that. That decision, as an example, may drive a lower wireless ARPU. However, it may drive accretion and growth in the fixed component of the business. And I'm perfectly okay with that. And I think that's a good economic decision.
And so I think what everybody should think about in our business and what -- when we start talking about this shift to convergence, you want to look and say, all right, are we able to drive EBITDA and cash growth in the business? And are we able to do it with keeping the margin equation in check and be less focused on a discrete product number in this? And I believe that's going to be the play in this industry moving forward. And in fact, I believe strongly enough that as we finish out this year and go into discussion of fourth quarter earnings and what we're going to do in '26, I think you should expect us to come back and start talking about some different disclosures around how we run and operate our business so that you have the transparency to see what's happening in that. Because I believe in this dynamic of what's occurring and in the product portfolio we have and the way the margin structure is stacking up as these businesses scale, that not all net adds are created equal, and that actually looking at the base of customers and the service revenues they generate and the margin structure that puts in place on a converged basis will be a more important dynamic than what we've ever looked at.
And right or wrong, KPIs is how you value our companies and how you talk about our companies were built during a period of time when regulatory structures effectively kept industries separate. Wireless was pure play, fixed was pure play for a very long time. And we're now at this point where intermodal competition is healthy. It's robust. It's happening every day. And it's probably time for us to look at some of those KPIs and ask how are they going to evolve and start to think about them a little bit differently. So you're going to see some moderation in ARPU and wireless. You're going to see some of it is seasonal. The fourth quarter, there's always a seasonal slight moderation in ARPU and wireless. I don't expect that to be any different this year. But what you want to look at is our profit margins are very stable. Our EBITDA is growing. I just said we're going to be better than 3%. And as a result of that, the equation is working the right way. And some of that accretion you're seeing on the broadband side, it's that mix.
The last thing I'd say about this is the lead product in our portfolio on a converged basis, the one that has the highest brand affinity, has the most sticky characteristics of keeping the customer in the fold, has the most discretion that has to go on when somebody decides they want to shift is the fixed broadband component. It effectively has the highest value in the portfolio. We don't price and drive value that way today. And so kind of making sure we get that balance between those things right and making sure the value is on the highest value product and that customers see it that way and it's consistent with how they look at it is a really important thing for us to run to over time to make sure we set ourselves up for good customer retention, good customer perceptions.
And at the end of the day, what you guys are driving for as you guys fine-tune the equation is EBITDA and free cash flow growth. And if whether the results are seen more evident in the wireless business or the residential business, it doesn't matter to you as long as you're driving the EBITDA and free cash flow.
Unless you're going to tell me that after all the years of following this industry and our company, that you're not going to care about cash anymore, the answer to that question is yes.
Okay. Got it. Noted. All right. We'll be on the lookout for the new guidance. Maybe digitalization before we return to -- move to other parts of the business. That seems to be a new -- or not a new, but it's sort of a -- there's more emphasis on digitalization and T-Mobile has this new sort of switching, make it easier to switch. Can you talk about AT&T's efforts on the -- in terms of digitalizing the wireless business?
Yes. Apparently, the easier to switch part didn't work out too well on that. But I absolutely agree that the thrust and the direction that they were going with that is the right direction. It's consistent with what customers want to see and it's consistent with where the market is going and it's consistent with how we've kind of been trying to position ourselves over the last number of years as we've been retooling our distribution. Early in my tenure, I would be out here, and we'd be talking a lot about what are we doing, what's causing some of the rebound and how the business is operating? And we talk about we're retooling distribution quite a bit, where shifting how we're doing distribution, what's company owned, what we're doing through third parties, the emphasis we are putting on alternate channels. So we've been kind of working this distribution dynamic for many years, getting ready for this reality that when industry matures a little bit more, you're not going to be set up in the distribution structure that you have been when you're growing at the rate the wireless industry was growing 2 decades ago. It's not going to support the kind of models that were out there at that point.
And look, as I've said before, customers impart on us their experiences with other industries and services. And they like having digital experiences. Most of you in this room, if I said, okay, it's time to go through your 2-year cycle and get a new device, what's your choice? Do you want to sit at home and doing it -- or do it, and do you want to come into one of our stores, most of you would say, I'd rather stay at home. I don't relish going into the store to get that done. And there's no reason we shouldn't build processes to support that.
So what T-Mobile did is consistent with where we see the market is going, and we think it's consistent with what customers want. We're taking a little bit different attack as to how we're doing it. Some of that will start rolling out early next year. But we absolutely see this consistent trend that more and more of our transactions with customers will be fulfilled digitally and through a very well-integrated supply chain supporting that moving forward and that will give customers flexibility.
It doesn't mean they won't have physical points to go and satisfy their needs if they choose to do that. They may be different in how they get those physical points of distribution, but they will have far more choices about how they do things digitally. And I think that's good for our business. It will take friction out of things. It will end up allowing customers to do things in a way that they in view brand value back into the company when we meet them on their grounds is to how they want things done. And frankly, it will allow us to do the things that looking at data and the life cycle of a customer that we have probably more of on a converged basis than others, and how we really fine tune and customize the product life cycle, the service life cycle for a customer because digitally, you can touch them all the time. You don't have to necessarily wait for them to walk into the store.
Makes sense. All right. Now let's shift to broadband, maybe starting first with fixed wireless. As you said, greater emphasis on fixed wireless. And if you say that the Internet Air product is the best fixed wireless product in the market. Can you talk about sort of what's sort of driving the change? What should we expect maybe from a growth standpoint over the next year or 2? And then maybe what the 3.45 spectrum, which I think you've launched in most major markets, does for that business?
First, what hasn't changed is we're a fiber-first company, and we still are a fiber-first company, and that's our best broadband product and always will be the best broadband product in the market. And it's always going to perform better than any other broadband product in the market until somebody else decides to go out and overbuild our fiber with fiber, if that ever happens. And that's a big question. But we'll have an entrenched position. The brand is doing incredibly well. I'm not -- I never said that our Internet Air was the best in the market. I really don't have a way of benchmarking today where that is at this juncture, but it has certainly gotten dramatically better. We know -- I think we shared with you all publicly a couple of days ago, a couple of weeks ago, that we expect the 3.45 deployment of spectrum is going to up our fixed wireless speeds by over 50%. And we think that's a really good thing. And it will do even more for handsets. We'll probably be up in an 80% improvement speed range. And you've already seen the stuff flow in from not my sourcing and information, but if you go and look at other third-party test results, you see it flowing in as a result of our rapid deployment of that across over 60% of our footprint.
Part of the growth in fixed wireless is not only a factor of having more 3.45, which gives us some depth to go and make it available in places where maybe we haven't. But as I've shared before, we have other modernization going on in our wireless network that has been a gating factor for us to sell into that footprint. We needed to get some of this rework done and lift other spectrum we have, including C-band spectrum, get the right radios in place and not put ourselves in a position where we're going to be disrupting customers as we were doing a fairly substantial infrastructure change out on towers. 2025, as we shared with you in that work, was our peak investment year for that. So you should assume we've gotten through not only the peak of that, but we've gotten a lot of the really attractive locations done, not all of them, but many of them because that's how you front-load a wireless modernization effort.
And we're kind of now working through the downhill side. So you take that work that's been completed, that's increased the footprint. You take the 3.45, which is increased it. You take the natural scaling of us bringing the product to market where we're moving through the learning curve and fine-tuning the product, all those things have helped us get better. And finally, as I've said many times before, we love the product and business. We love the product and business for a number of ways, and I view it, it's profitability, it's longevity, it's ability to satisfy customer needs in segments of the business market much more malleable, sustainable than it is in the consumer space. And that's a distribution issue. And most of our distribution on fixed wireless has been owned and operated distribution.
We need more third-party distribution, and we've been building that up. And so we're getting some lift as we're getting better in the business market. And that play has not completely evolved. So I don't think you're going to see this ever-growing volume on fixed wireless from where we are today. You're going to see us getting better. You're going to see us do more business. You're going to see us move it into the right customers. But I'm not out here saying my goal is to double fixed wireless deployment in my footprint. That's not my goal. My goal is to be really good with fiber. My goal is to use AI to preload places where I'm going to build fiber. My goal is to use AI to get after business customers that are well suited to the product. And my goal is to converge the right consumer customers that have a chance to have sustainability with the product over the long haul with both mobile and fixed convergence in places where I don't have fiber.
Makes sense. Yes, let's shift to the fiber business and convergence. The way I think about convergence from a telco perspective is whether the fiber footprint drives wireless subscriber growth and share within the fiber footprint. So as we fast forward 3 years, you guys will be executing on the plan to hit 60 million-plus locations. Do you think your fiber footprint will have led to share gains on the wireless...
Absolutely. It's the bet we're making. That's what we shared with you at the Analyst Day. We told you that where we deploy fiber, our wireless share is 500 basis points higher than where it is in places where we don't. We've been giving you the march on convergence. We're approaching 42% converged in a wireless footprint and -- or excuse me, a fiber footprint. Where we have both fiber and wireless together, I just told you when we're doing promotions as we're moving through the holiday season, we're doing a lot more and giving a lot more to customers who put 2 together, and those that are buying 1 alone. And we get a lot more swings at the plate right now when we have a nationwide internet network that we can pitch where people are coming in, and it gives us a chance to pitch what we have to them and actually work them through the right product set to do that.
So we will do that, and we have other tailwinds moving in the direction on this. One is we've got the Lumen transaction, which is going to dramatically increase the size of our footprint. One ready-made the day we closed that footprint as an underpenetrated footprint that has 25% penetration on it, which is way below what we are able and have demonstrated that we can do in our own operating constructs with our own distribution. So we can walk into that ready-made footprint and get some growth out of just penetrating what's there, while we're ramping to growing probably another 1 million footprint per year in those territories that we're picking up. And in doing that, you're going to increase the size.
In addition, we told you we're redirecting investment in our traditional operating footprint that will have us up another 1 million a year by the time we get into 2027. So we're going to have an expanding footprint of new fiber coming in that's dramatically bigger than what we have today. Maybe it's 2.5 million a year today, and now you start thinking about -- I just gave you 2 numbers and you take that up above 4 million a year and you go to the converged dynamic, I think you're underestimating exactly where some of that newfound revenue and customers are coming from, and that's what we built our Analyst Day dynamic on that we shared with you why we had confidence in that 3-year view. And we have built that foundation to make that happen.
So we are orienting the business to doing that, being aggressive around that, being the first to do that, getting the most substantial best-performing footprint at 60 million plus with fiber, that is fundamental and foundational to this business.
And what should that -- while we are talking about the Lumen deal, what does that do to the -- maybe talk about your wireless business in that what did we bought, and I think of it as the U.S. West segment. I mean, where is it now? And how could that trend in that part of the country change with the Lumen transaction?
Look, the places that we picked up fiber footprint in, in Washington, in Colorado, in Arizona, in Utah, in Minnesota, they all happen to be our lowest penetration wireless markets. Why? Because we don't have the brand exposure and the foundational good experience of another product to kind of market to on. So we think this is probably the most underappreciated aspect of what we're doing. When we execute well against the fiber strategy here, and we bring the AT&T branding on top of it, and we bring the AT&T experience on top of it, and we bring the combined distribution on top of it, we're going to move both products. And this is really fundamental when we go into our discussions next year, early part of next year. I told you as we get close to closing, which we expect to happen early part of next year, we're going to sit down and have an extended session with you, and we're going to outline, not only because of the Lumen, but also what we've done with EchoStar, that you should expect to see some growth changes in our business. If we're going to invest this money, we're going to do these things and take this capital and put it in, we should be able to grow at a little better rate than what we're doing today.
And so we'll lay that out for you. We'll explain to you how that happens. But we fully expect the dynamics in these markets to change. And we expect to have a better brand and a better position in those markets as a result of what we're doing there.
Okay. Maybe lastly on fiber. Can we talk a little bit about build costs. I think there's a view out there that the sort of first layer of build-outs is the most efficient, maybe it's aerial, it's more dense. And then as we go into the sort of second cohort, third cohort and wherever we are now, that build costs automatically go up. Just what are you seeing in terms of your cost per home pass? And maybe just in general, the general economics of the fiber-to-the-home business?
I'd say that, that's generally correct, but it's not absolutely correct. We still have places in California, we have places in Chicago that are low-cost builds that are aerial, that, for whatever reason, we haven't worked through those yet. Sometimes it's permitting, sometimes it's other issues. So it's not like we're out of lower-cost homes to go build in places. But have we done more lower-cost homes than we've done higher cost homes? Yes. And as I've said many times up here before, but that's the plan. And the plan is to go invest more as we, I hope, gain confidence with all of you that when we build this infrastructure that we can get to 40% penetration pretty quickly, maybe we get to 50% in the next year or 2 around it.
You're seeing the returns and what it does and the profit margin improvement as we scale the business. And so you can all look at that and say, well, are they going to invest another $200 per passing to pick up some of these other areas that are actually even more attractive demographic areas than the ones they've built? And you go and say, well, of course, you would. And if you can bring wireless share on top of it, you'd say, well, of course, you would.
So the economic return is there even though those builds are a little bit more. And because we're scaling, I just told you we're talking about building another 1 million homes in our footprint. We're going to go and we're going to build more in the Lumen footprint. We already have the preferred position in the supply chain for this stuff. When we decide to build more, that doesn't come for free. It doesn't come for free to us because we've got to pay to invest to do it. But the vendors we work with because they're going to get more business from us are going to become more aggressive around what they do as we scale those things to get more volume.
And so we manage some of the cost increases and the dynamics are occurring by using that scale, that heavier build, that consistent investment in our supply chain base to manage those things. And finally, let's not just obsess on one aspect of the cost of running a fiber network. Let's look at the life cycle of running the fiber network. And so we're investing at the front end to put a superior technology and I'll acknowledge that. But customer acquisition costs because of the preferred position in the market are improving. The life cycle costs about supporting that customer are dramatically improving.
I used to do a lot of modeling earlier in my career, what it would look like to operate an all-fiber network? There was a lot of impressive numbers. They were theoretical at the time because there wasn't that much fiber deployed and it really hadn't been deployed in local loops for consumer customers. Well, we have that at scale now, and we are seeing that happen. And if you can drop long-term operating costs, and if you can leave broadband into a home where you don't have to dispatch a truck when that second and third service goes into a location over time, you got a really clean operating model.
And so the profitability, the return on those assets over time operating long term, that's what drives it. And we shouldn't just obsess on one thing, which is the first build cost.
Right. And since you touched on it, you guys have laid out the opportunity of saving sort of $6 billion in the copper decom, converting from sort of legacy networks to fiber. I think you guys are sort of really starting to gain some momentum with that initiative. What can you tell us in terms of the timing, which we'll see the savings, where we'll see it, and how much of it drops to the bottom line? And what -- in general, what it does for the business?
Yes, broadly speaking, I mean, by the end of the decade, I'd like out of that legacy TDM business in all shapes and forms. And we may have some stragglers that carry through, but there was a USA Today article today. I know there's media stuff out and people are like saying, "Well, AT&T says they're going to be out of the POTs business in this state by 2027." And the answer is yes, we are. And we've had our first complete office closure where we write down to the last service, not just the POT service, they're typically easier to get out right down to the last data circuit that's TDM, they're gone. Office is gone. It's finished. And now we got about 4,999 to go. But we are on a pace right now. As you've seen with our filings at the FCC that we have a process in place to do this. And generally, what happens with, we file. Once we file, we stop selling. During that period of time that we stop selling, we take a year to notice and ultimately transition customers and then we shut down. We have about 1/3 of our offices right now in that process. And we have a plan, a very deliberate plan of when the next third and the next third to come.
And some of it will require a little bit of development and work to be done. And we've got to finish building fiber to migrate some customers in places. We have to have some catch products in places in areas where we're not building fiber and supplement the wireless network with capacity and better transmission and those kinds of things to pick up certain services, but all those plans are underway. And we told you there's about $6 billion of cost left in these areas where we've got to shut down these legacy services. We told you about 40% of it is variable, 60% of it is largely fixed and shared. That 60% is harder to get at. It tends to come out at the end because you got to get rid of the last office, the last computer system, the last shared piece of infrastructure. But we are marching down that path right now, and it's happening.
And as we get out of this copper, the other thing we'll be doing is -- I don't know how many of you pay attention to copper prices, I actually do. And that copper has value and that copper is going to help us basically offset and neutralize all these migration costs to do these as we harvest it, take it out and sell in the secondary market. So this ecosystem of getting out of this business, we've created it. We've set up a regulatory structure. We've been successful in virtually all of our states. California still has work to do. And I feel really proud about the progress the team has made around that. And frankly, I see a lot in the industry starting to come behind and follow us.
Makes sense. Lastly, on broadband, there's a fair amount of angst in the market given recent activity by some of the LEO providers, the LEO systems, especially with the acquisition of mobile spectrum. Do you see LEO infrastructure as a complement or a substitute to terrestrial networks? And how do you expect that -- the business model of the LEO providers to evolve over time? And does it -- is it something that we should worry about as mobile -- terrestrial mobile investors?
I think I'd continue to watch it. I view it as a complement, largely a complement in the near to midterm. There's some places where if I was in the IoT space, that satellite might do a better job of picking up certain types of traffic at certain times than a terrestrial network will over time. And so I think, in the IoT space, it's going to open up probably growth and opportunity for perpetual connection in some places where maybe it does a better job. In the global nature of satellite, when you have assets that move all over the globe, like container ships and things like that, it might be a better way for certain things to get done. But in terms of replacing the bulk of what happens on your handset every day, it's a tough put. I've shared before, we invest a significant amount of our infrastructure inside buildings, not outside. And satellite doesn't do a good job of getting inside stadiums and inside office buildings and inside hospitals and inside schools. And there's a lot of traffic in those places, and you have to build infrastructure to get there.
It does an adequate job of getting to traffic that you have good line of sight in with no tree obstructions and things like that outside, but it also has other limitations. And as, for example, upstream bandwidth becomes more important in the AI dynamic, it's inherently going to be a more fragile upstream uplink than what you're going to get in a terrestrial network that gets on fiber really quickly. The faster you can get something on fiber, the more robust that upstream uplink is going to be. And the more low-band spectrum you have to do that, the more robust that upstream link is going to be.
Satellite doesn't have those things. And then you've got the pure engineering of it. We have typically over 300 megahertz on a particular stick that we have out there at cell site. And that's 300 megahertz times 3 carriers in a market. So if you think about it, you get 80 megahertz that you get to put on a spot beam that has a radius that is dramatically larger than a cell site, 2.5 miles, 2 miles for a cell site. You're talking about a spot beam right now that's probably close to 20 miles. And you're taking 80 megahertz and you're putting over that period, you have a weaker uplink, that's a hard put to be a like-for-like replacement.
And then finally, I'd say, if you're building the business model in a constellation, wouldn't the best thing be to attract traffic from everybody out there, not just have your own provider do it. And I think a wholesale model for them to be able to resell that capacity into people who have a lot of relationships with customers is probably fundamentally a better business model than going out trying to be a carrier do a like-for-like replacement and build an interior network and an outside network and have enough capacity to do all those.
That makes sense. All right. Just to wrap up here, brining it back to where we started. You currently have heightened capital investment levels. How does this sort of evolve over time? And you talked about the $4 billion in repurchases you've done. Can you remind us of the steps to get to the next $10 billion and sort of how that whole capital return model comes together?
Yes. We run the business so we grow it and we continue to manage costs on the trajectory we've been doing for the last several years that we laid out in December of last year for everybody is how we get to the next $10 billion. And we're doing that, and we feel really good and really confident about doing that. And I've already said we've got multiple large investment programs. We kind of hit peak on wireless. We're not going to hit peak on fiber yet for another year or 2. But we will -- once we're done building fiber, we won't be reinvesting that money somewhere else. That's the whole business case around it. And so we do start to get to a different capital profile after we finish building this infrastructure that's going to be great for the next 30 years. And it's been a little bit challenging and painful going to the front end of it. I've asked a lot of the investment base to stay with us as we go through it. But you are seeing the results of what this business looks like and what that franchise could look like. And it is a superior product. And everybody else who's competing against it now has some hard decisions to make.
The good thing about those hard decisions is; one, they're hard decisions; and two, they don't happen overnight. And so I feel like we're in a great position and a lead on it. And we will see as we start to get through that peak investment and we get to the latter part of this decade, and we start to ramp ourselves back down to mid-teens as a percent of capital invested in this business, that cash becomes available. That cash becomes available to return to investors, reinvest in the business, and we will do what is responsible at that point based on what's in front of us when that occurs. And that's why I'm so bullish on this business. We're building a franchise for the converged industry that is coming, that is going to be incredibly well positioned with fantastic wireless assets, fantastic fixed assets and a customer base that will be unparalleled.
Perfect. That's a great way to end it. John, thanks for being here.
Thanks for having me in, John.
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AT&T — UBS Global Media and Communications Conference 2025
AT&T — UBS Global Media and Communications Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: AT&T bestätigt Ausrichtung vom Analyst Day: Konvergenz von Fixed (Fiber) und Mobile als Hebel für EBITDA‑ und Free‑Cash‑Flow‑Wachstum, gezielte Kapitelausgaben für Fiber‑Rollout (Ziel 60M+ Haushalte), Schuldenziel ~2,5x adjusted Net Debt/EBITDA und fortgesetzte Kapitalrückflüsse.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Strategie: Ausbau der Konvergenz: Fiber steigert Wireless‑Marktanteil (≈+500 Basispunkte in ausgebauten Gebieten); Lumen‑Akquisition vergrößert sofortige Opportunity in Westmärkten; Kapitalallokation kombiniert Wachstum (Peak‑CapEx in Fiber) und Rückkäufe; EchoStar/3.45‑Rollout stärken Netzwerkfähigkeit.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Guidance bestätigt; Management erwartet EBITDA‑Wachstum «besser als 3%». $4Mrd Rückkäufe für dieses Jahr abgeschlossen. 3.45‑Spektrum in >60% der Märkte, Fixed‑Wireless‑Geschwindigkeiten sollen >50% steigen (Handsets ~80%). Lumen‑Closing erwartet Anfang 2026; konvergenzorientierte KPIs angekündigt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Themen: Kritikpunkte: wie AT&T Preis/Volumen steuert, konkrete Fixed‑Wireless‑Wachstumsziele, Fiber‑Buildkosten und Wirtschaftlichkeit, Timing und Wirkung der ~$6Mrd Kupfer‑Decom‑Einsparungen, Bedrohung durch LEO‑Satelliten und Digitalisierungsstrategie. Management lieferte konkrete Details zu 3.45, Buybacks und Lumen‑Timing; weniger konkrete Zahlen zu kurzfristigem Fixed‑Wireless‑Volumen und Detailkosten.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Call bestätigt: AT&T macht Fortschritte bei Bilanz, Netzinvestitionen und Kapitalrückführung; Konvergenz und Fiber sind die zentralen Werttreiber. Für Aktionäre bedeutet das höheres mittelfristiges EBITDA/FCF‑Potenzial, aber Ausführungsrisiken (Wettbewerb, Baukosten, Kupfer‑Migration) bleiben relevant.
AT&T — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to AT&T's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference call over to our host, Brett Feldman, Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to our third quarter call. I'm Brett Feldman, Head of Investor Relations for AT&T. Joining me on the call today are John Stankey, our Chairman and CEO; and Pascal Desroches, our CFO.
Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our safe harbor statement. It says that some of our comments today may be forward-looking. As such, they are subject to risks and uncertainties described in AT&T's SEC filings. Results may differ materially. Additional information as well as our earnings materials are available on our Investor Relations website.
With that, I'll turn the call over to John Stankey. John?
Thank you, Brett, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you making the time to join us, and I hope everybody is doing well. I'm pleased to report that we had another solid quarter and remain on track to achieve this year's consolidated financial guidance. We continue to attract and retain high-value customers and execute well across different operating environments, thanks to the durable and differentiated connectivity franchise we continue to build.
In Mobility, we delivered over 400,000 postpaid phone net adds in the quarter, which is slightly ahead of our performance a year ago. In Consumer Wireline the scale we have achieved as a nationwide provider of home Internet services through our significant investments in fiber and 5G is proving to be a winning play. At the end of the third quarter, we passed more than 31 million total locations with fiber, and we expect to reach more than 60 million customer locations by the end of 2030.
We also offer our fixed wireless service, AT&T Internet Air in parts of 47 states, and we continue to expand availability into new areas as we open and modernize our mobile network. You can see the durable impact of these investments in our third quarter results, which include over 550,000 new subscribers to our most advanced broadband services, AT&T Fiber and Internet air. This resulted in our highest total broadband net adds in more than 8 years.
Let me say that again. We achieved our highest total broadband net adds in 8 years. This includes a major milestone by reaching over 10 million premium AT&T fiber subscribers, more than doubling our fiber customer base in less than 5 years and nearly tripling our quarterly fiber revenues over that same period and the train keeps a rolling. We offer fast and reliable connectivity for 5G and fiber at attractive price points and more people are choosing AT&T for both wireless and home Internet services.
Today, more than 41% of AT&T fiber households also choose AT&T for wireless. And the pace of this convergence trends within our customer base continues to grow. These customers remain our most valuable with the lowest churn profile and highest lifetime values. Our success with convergence also extends to fixed wireless, where more than half of our Internet Air subscribers also choose AT&T for their wireless service. Similar to fiber, these customers exhibit lower churn and drive higher lifetime values and customers with stand-alone services.
We continue to make solid progress but our work is not done. Our goal is to become the best advanced communications provider in America and to lead our industry and share of retail connectivity service revenue by the end of this decade. This year, we've made a series of strategic moves that both strengthen our ability to lead in convergence and accelerate our future growth trajectory. Our planned acquisitions of spectrum licenses from EchoStar and fiber assets from Lumen significantly enhance and expand our advanced connectivity portfolio. This aligns with our vision to build the most efficient high-performance network with an ability to deliver traffic at the lowest marginal cost. We believe this will establish a durable competitive advantage for AT&T in the coming years.
The EchoStar spectrum we agreed to acquire will improve our 5G wireless performance in a cost-efficient manner while allowing us to grow Internet air at a faster pace. We are already making great progress delivering on our commitment to deploy this valuable spectrum for the benefit of American consumers and businesses. We started deploying the 3.45 gigahertz spectrum that we have agreed to acquire from EchoStar under a short-term spectrum manager lease.
Based on our current rate and pace, we expect these mid-band licenses will be deployed in cell sites, covering nearly 2/3 of the U.S. population by mid-November. This should position us to further expand the availability of Internet Air and our sales channels in 2026. Our ability to move this quickly reflects the great work of our teams and the FCC's pro-investment and supportive policy environment. We're also making great progress in preparing to close our transaction with Lumen. Most of the senior leadership team has been identified, and we now expect to close this transaction in the early part of 2026.
As I've said before, where we have fiber we win with both fiber and 5G, and we plan to win even more as our investments in these assets bring advanced connectivity to more Americans. The supportive policy environment is also making it easier for us to transition away from outdated legacy infrastructure and invest in the AI-ready connectivity that Americans want and need. The bottom line is that we now have the right building blocks in place to realize our scaled fiber and fixed wireless ambitions, complete our wireless modernization, and successfully transition away from legacy infrastructure.
As we complete our key investments, acquisitions and transformation initiatives, we expect to increase our fiber and convergence penetration rates and see a majority of incremental revenue growth originate from converged customer relationships. For several consecutive years, we've demonstrated that this strategy works by efficiently growing our business, while investing in our network, strengthening our balance sheet and returning value to shareholders. The opportunities ahead of us are in our control, and I wouldn't trade our assets and position for anyone else's in our marketplace. Now it's up to us to continue executing on our vision to become the best advanced communications provider in America.
With that, I'll turn it over to Pascal for a detailed review of our third quarter results and outlook.
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. At a consolidated level, total revenues grew 1.6% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA grew 2.4% and we expanded adjusted EBITDA margins by 30 basis points. Adjusted EPS was $0.54 in the quarter, consistent with the prior year. Adjusted EPS excludes a gain recognized on the sale of the DIRECTV investment, legal settlement costs and other items.
Third quarter free cash flow was $4.9 billion versus $4.6 billion a year ago. Capital investment was $5.3 billion, which was down $200 million year-over-year. We also contributed $400 million to our employee pension plan in the third quarter, which is reported within cash from operations and therefore, impacts free cash flow.
As we discussed in our second quarter results, we expect to contribute $1.5 billion to our pension plan by the end of 2026, using a portion of the cash tax savings from provisions within the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This includes an additional $400 million of contributions planned in the fourth quarter, with the remaining $700 million of contributions next year.
Turning next to our business unit results. Starting with mobility. Our third quarter performance highlights how our differentiated strategy enables us to deliver consistent results across various operating environments. Similar to the first half of the year, switching activity remains elevated. However, our playbook is working, and we continue to execute well. We grew mobility service revenue by 2.3% year-over-year which contributed to EBITDA growth of 2.2%.
As a reminder, the prior year quarter included approximately million in onetime service revenues related to certain administrative fees. This impacted our reported growth rates during the third quarter in mobility service revenue by about 60 basis points and in mobility EBITDA by about 100 basis points. We reported 405,000 postpaid phone net adds, which is up slightly from the third quarter of last year.
Postpaid phone churn was 0.92%, up 14 basis points versus a year ago. This reflects increased marketplace activity and to a lesser degree, an increase in the portion of our customer base, reaching the end of device financing periods, which normalized as we exited the quarter. Based on this operating environment, we continue to plan for postpaid phone churn and upgrades to follow seasonal patterns in the fourth quarter when we typically see more switching and upgrade activity due to new device launches and the holiday season.
Postpaid phone ARPU was $56.64, essentially consistent with a year ago when normalizing for the previously mentioned onetime service revenue impact in the third quarter of 2024. ARPU was also impacted by our success in attracting customers in underpenetrated segments that have lower ARPUs, such as our plan that targets adults, 55 years old or older. Success in these underpenetrated segments drive higher incremental service revenues and attractive returns.
The trend also reflects our success in growing our base of converged customers with higher lifetime values. These subscribers are typically eligible for a service discount but support growth in home Internet revenues, which we report in Consumer Wireline. We expect these dynamics to continue in the fourth quarter, which typically see seasonally lower ARPU with some offsetting benefits related to a pricing action that becomes effective at the beginning of December.
Similar to the first half, we continue to operate in a marketplace where the cost of acquiring and retaining subscribers has increased. However, our continued success at adding high-value converged customer relationships, points to the attractive returns we're driving through our offers. While total mobility operating expenses were up year-over-year, this was primarily driven by higher equipment costs and other acquisition-related expenses. We otherwise continue to execute well at managing our costs through operational efficiencies including reductions in cost of service and customer support.
I'm really pleased with how well the team is executing and remain confident in our ability to deliver on our full year outlook for mobility service revenue growth of 3% or better and mobility EBITDA growth of approximately 3%. Our Consumer Wireline business unit also delivered another strong quarter. Total revenues grew 4.1% year-over-year, driven by 16.8% growth in fiber revenue. Consumer Wireline EBITDA grew more than 15% for the quarter. This was driven by top line growth and cost takeout, including lower expenses associated with our legacy copper network. As a result, Consumer Wireline EBITDA margins expanded by a robust 350 basis points year-over-year.
Customer demand for our leading home Internet offerings is growing as we reported strong gains in both fiber and Internet Air customers. We added 288,000 AT&T fiber customers during the third quarter, reflecting seasonal tailwinds and the continued expansion of our fiber footprint. As a reminder, in the fourth quarter of last year, we benefited from some pent-up demand following the third quarter work stoppage in the Southeast. This year, we expect our fiber net adds to exhibit typical seasonality in the fourth quarter when we usually see lower levels of new connections as we get deeper into the holiday season. Once again, we saw strong growth in the portion of our fiber customer base that also subscribes to mobility services.
At the end of the third quarter, this convergence rate reached 41%, up 180 basis points from a year ago. This represents one of our largest convergence gains over the past 3 years. We also reported 270,000 AT&T Internet air net adds, doubling our subscriber gains year-over-year. Based on our operating momentum and strong performance through the first 3 quarters of the year, we continue to expect to achieve full year growth in consumer fiber broadband revenue in the mid- to high teens and Consumer Wireline EBITDA growth in the low to mid-teens range.
Business Wireline revenues declined 7.8% year-over-year, while EBITDA declined about 13%. As we shared last quarter, we've been reinvesting some of our cost savings into driving improved growth in fiber and fixed wireless. And our third quarter results reflect early traction with these efforts. Fiber and Advanced Connectivity Service revenues grew 6% year-over-year, representing an acceleration from 3.5% growth in the second quarter. Value-added services, which contributes about 1/3 of these revenues can be variable from quarter-to-quarter. But we expect continued acceleration in our fiber and fixed wireless connectivity revenues in the fourth quarter.
While Business Wireline continues to manage through structural declines in legacy services, the team is doing a great job positioning the business to drive sustained growth and advanced connectivity services while operating more efficiently. Based on this solid execution, we continue to expect business wireline EBITDA pressures to moderate versus last year with a full year decline in the low double-digit range.
During the third quarter, we returned $3.5 billion to our shareholders. This includes nearly $1.5 billion of stock repurchases, keeping us on pace to achieve our full year target of $4 billion in buybacks. We ended the third quarter with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 2.59x, down slightly from 2.64x last quarter, reflecting strong cash generation and growth in adjusted EBITDA. We ended the quarter with more than $20 billion of cash, including proceeds from recent debt issuances. This puts us in a great position to fund our capital returns program and pending acquisitions.
We closed the sale of our remaining stake in DIRECTV in July and received approximately $320 million in cash in the quarter. We expect to receive an additional $3.8 billion of cash with the large majority expected over the course of the fourth quarter and the early part of next year. As a reminder, these post sale proceeds are reported within investing activities in the statement of cash flows and excluded from our reported free cash flow. Overall, our third quarter results showed that we're executing well and are reiterating our full year financial guidance.
At a consolidated level, this includes service revenue growth in the low single-digit range and adjusted EBITDA growth of 3% or better. We had an opportunity to settle some out-of-pattern legal settlement that will impact our fourth quarter free cash flow by approximately $0.5 billion. The expense associated with these settlements was accrued in the third quarter and excluded from adjusted EPS. However, we continue to expect full year free cash flow in the low to mid $16 billion range, including about $4 billion in the fourth quarter.
We also continue to expect full year capital investment in the $22 billion to $22.5 billion range, which implies fourth quarter capital investments up roughly $7 billion to $7.5 billion. We also reiterate our full year outlook for adjusted EPS of $1.97 to $2.07 and expect that we will come in closer to the high end of this range. Embedded within this guidance is an outlook for full year depreciation and amortization expense that is up slightly versus 2024.
In the fourth quarter, we expect to see sequentially lower depreciation and amortization expense as certain legacy assets become fully depreciated. So we expect our fourth quarter depreciation and amortization expense of about $5 billion is more aligned with the quarterly run rate we expect heading into next year. As John noted, we're making great progress towards closing our pending acquisitions of fiber assets from Lumen and spectrum licenses from EchoStar. So we expect to provide an update to our long-term financial outlook early next year. We expect both of these transactions to boost our organic growth in revenues and profitability and you should expect that this will be reflected in our updated outlook. In summary, we continue to deliver value for our customers and our shareholders, and we're really pleased with the team's performance through 3 quarters of the year.
Brett, that's our presentation. We're now ready for the Q&A.
Thank you, Pascal. Operator, we are ready to take the first question.
[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Peter Supino with Wolf Research.
2. Question Answer
The broadband results were really striking, and I have 2 questions on broadband and take them in whichever order you like. First, your 60 million fiber home target is the most important among numerous industry-wide fiber expansion plans. Our best attempt to estimate the intentions of all the fiber expanders builders, developers rolled up is about 110 million in a country with 135 million homes.
And so a question we hear frequently, and I think is important is, at what point do AT&T investors have to worry about insurgence getting to some of the homes that AT&T plans to pass before you do and if they do, could that alter your plans at all, would you be responsive to that? And then a related question is, within 2 years, your DSL base will be gone or declining much more slowly, I mean your VDSL base. And what should that mean for your broadband strategy and for your competitive outlook?
Peter, and thank you for noting the broadband results. They are very, very strong. I'm delighted with them. And as I said in my comments, despite all the other things going on in the industry and the questions that come in around change of tactics by various other players, this team continues to consistently deliver results quarter-over-quarter in this space because we have a great product, and we feel really good about that.
I'll tell you, we pride ourselves on being smart about how we build. We think we have most scale build engine in the industry with that scalability comes a degree of agility. It means we have the flexibility to work with our base and move supply around. We try to be very deliberate about ensuring that everybody knows when the train rolls into town, the trains in town and it's probably not a good place for anybody else to come and deploy their capital because this is a company that has a track record of going in and penetrating aggressively and being successful in markets, and there's probably easier places for people to go then come up against us.
And so we try to be very, very deliberate in how we allocate our capital in the markets that we're building in to make sure everybody knows where we're going and how aggressively we're going because we believe the right thing to do is to ensure that there is a good solid market structure for ourselves moving forward. And occasionally, there are times where while we lay our plans out 3 years in advance, and we believe we have some insight and fidelity of what's going on in the market, something changes in that period, and we have to recalibrate and think differently about how we're going to draw the boundaries about where we're going to build and how we're going to build.
But while I know there's a lot of announcements out there that maybe add to 110 million homes being built, it doesn't mean they're getting built. It doesn't mean that people are effectively getting permits that they have their supply chain issues worked out and our job is to remove that friction and be better than everybody else and ensure the 60 million that we're building are in fact the first and that we're doing it more effectively than anybody else. And when we run into those occasional circumstances where they're not we rethink about where we deploy our capital and what we do.
So I feel pretty comfortable that the team understands that and has been doing that by and large. And we also know that when somebody overbuilds a small portion of the metropolitan area. This is a scale business. Having 230,000 homes passed isn't going to cut it. And so when we come in and we're able to use our brand and use our marketing position, we can do very, very well and there's a small amount of overlap and still get the share we need to drive the returns into our business.
Your observation on the DSL base is accurate. As you know, we're trying to turn down our legacy infrastructure. The DSL base is part of that. We don't want that equipment in our network anymore. We don't want it sucking down power. We don't want to be maintaining copper. And so part of what you're seeing is a very deliberate approach in almost all instances, we can replace DSL with fixed wireless in places where we're not building fiber or we can actively replace it with fixed wireless.
If we're in a holding pattern where we know we're not going to be getting our overbuild in place of fiber for another 2 years or so. and we're actively trying to hold those customers with more attractive converged offers. And that's part of the motion and the momentum that you're seeing in our converged basis and how we're using these products, and we're really excited about an advanced spectrum that we picked up because we think it's going to give us even more tools to make that happen both within our base where we're going to overbuild in those places where we will be wireless first, and we don't intend to build fiber. And as part of that deployment of capital that gets us just above 60 million.
So we'll actively manage it. As you can see, we're getting better at managing it. That's why our nets are the best they've been in 8 years. And I'm really confident that we haven't quite hit our full stride on that yet, that we can do even better on that front as we move forward in the coming quarters. And to my point in my comments, I would not change position with any company in this industry right now, given the asset base we have and the place that affords us to run.
Thanks, Peter. We'll take next question operator.
The next question comes from Benjamin Swinburne with Morgan Stanley.
Two questions. John, the AT&T Internet Air momentum is pretty clear in your results. I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit as the company expands your footprint, you mentioned parts of 47 states. How are you making sure you're sort of segmenting the market the right way between fiber and fixed wireless and being efficient with your marketing, et cetera? And maybe you could comment on how you're approaching as well?
And then for Pascal. Pascal, you mentioned the competitive environment in wireless this year has led to some higher equipment costs and subscriber acquisition costs, which we can see in mobility EBITDA margins being a little pressured this year. Your 3-year guidance assumes that gets better, that margins expand next couple of years. Just wondering if you could talk a little bit about how you deliver that if we think that the competitive environment maybe stays this elevated over the period.
So first of all, one of the big changes you've seen us make in our messaging is we're no longer leading kind of top-of-funnel awareness and advertising with a specific technology bent, we talk about getting Internet from AT&T, and we're doing that in the business market and the consumer market because we're now approaching this point that we can offer Internet nationwide. So the first thing is to make awareness that people just think about going to AT&T for Internet and then our messaging supports that, and you probably picked up on that if you watch any football or anything else in mass media.
And then to your point, underneath that top of funnel messaging is to make sure that we're tuning the messaging for what we offer in a particular geography. And digitally, that's really straightforward because we can ring fence literally what we want to do with a lead offer, and that's one reason why we're spending a little bit less in mass media is because given our targeted approach to how we want to converge customers, we can get a lot more out of digital marketing based on knowing where the customer is and what the right best offer is to put in front of them.
We've had pretty good success doing that. I think we even shared with you in December during the Analyst Day, if I recall correctly, an example of the map of the metropolitan area where we sell those products and you will see that there isn't Internet air subscribers sitting in fiber footprint. And there really shouldn't be. There not only shouldn't be any of our Internet Air subscribers in the fiber footprint. But it shouldn't be anybody else's Internet Air subscribers in a fiber footprint. And my intent is to ultimately market and sell and structure the product in a way that we make sure that, that is, in fact, the case because there is no lower marginal cost way to deliver broadband and fiber. And once it's in, it's in and it should basically have a preferred run at the market. And I think we can still even get better than that.
That's one reason why I'm not as attached to ARPUs right now and worried about that. I'm worried about our growth in service revenues and managing our profitability because I think there are segments in the market that we can even do better at, given the technology and what we've deployed. So you'll see us be very targeted in that, and it's very specific in our support systems when people come into the stores, et cetera. A lot of this is not left to the discretion of the individual. It's supported to them as to what they should be selling and cancel and our effectiveness, as I mentioned when I answered Peter's question in doing that over the coming years is a really important part of the success of this management team and managing the sustainability and durability of our profitability in the company, and we're very focused on making that happen operationally, both with our messaging as we work our way through the funnel and operationally how people move forward on it.
We're getting our momentum in business around Internet Air. We're still not as good as we can be. But as I've told you many times before, we've always viewed Fixed Wireless as a good solution in the business market given the usage characteristics of the small business or a medium-sized business and the nature of how those companies operate. And it's getting your distribution lined up. I think we're doing pretty well on our owned and operated distribution channels. But as you know, in the mid- and low portion of the market, a large part of your distribution comes through a third party, and we're not fully ramped in the third-party distribution yet when I compare our effectiveness to others in the market. We can get there, and we will get there and we're scaling it and ramping into it, and that's why you're seeing results improve.
But I think our mix of business can be a little bit stronger moving forward. And I think it will hinge on how effectively we ramp in third-party channels to make that happen. So that's part of the when I say, I think we can even get better than where we are, which I'm really pleased with the strong results, but I think we can get better this would be an area, for example, where I think we can get better. Pascal?
Ben, with regards to margins, we continue to expect overall company margin expansion consistent with what you saw this quarter, keep in mind, when you look out the next several years. We are working through several transformations, all of which will continue to drive overall efficiency. With each passing day, we have less and less copper in the network and less underlying infrastructure to support it. Similarly, we're in mid-flight in modernizing our wireless network. We expect that to be substantially complete by the end of 2027 as that's -- as more and more towers get modernized, it's going to drive efficiency, not in maintenance and power and is going to deliver superior service.
Also embedded in our strategy is a goal to continue to drive convergence. And over time, the more convergence we drive the overall churn should come down and as a result, the efficiency of our acquisition spend should also improve. So all those things together make me feel really good about how we're positioned for the future to continue to drive profitable growth.
The next question comes from John Hodulik with UBS.
Two, if I may. Maybe first on wireless. John, how would you say that the company is positioned if we see higher promotional activity in the fourth quarter, given the changes at Verizon and the T-Mobile actually. And maybe touch on the sort of cohorts coming off plan, if you could, given what -- versus what you've seen in the last couple of quarters.
And then for Pascal, the comments on ARPU and actually with a follow-up comment from John on your recent response, I mean, it sounds like you guys are -- the pressure on ARPU is a little bit stronger than what we expected, both in wireless and broadband. With mostly of the growth coming from converged services going forward and your comments, should we expect continued pressure on ARPU on both wireless and broadband as we look out over the next several quarters? .
John, look, I think the answer to the question is we're well positioned with our competitive market. It's been competitive. It continues to be competitive there are shifts in tactics all the time that occur in this market, and we're in a cycle right now that because of the maturity level, tactics have shifted. And as Pascal just very effectively articulated to you, our shift in tactic is to focus on converged customers.
And we know that there are some things we have to do differently for that to happen, but we also can project out given how we know they behave and their lifetime values and what occurs that when we're successful doing this and we drive the percentages of our base up higher on converged customers we're going to get in a position where we drive down churn. We make that base more profitable we have happier customers who ultimately move up the continuum buy more. And we believe that. And that is why we're architecting the business the way we are with the asset base we have and the strategies we're using moving forward.
In terms of the fourth quarter, I may be probably sit in a little different share. I actually don't believe many of my peers walk into their job and say, my goal is to lose share, and I'm going to deliberately do things to make that happen. I think most CEOs want to win, and I think they try to operate their business to win. And you can debate whether or not the tactics are right or need to be adjusted. We all make good decisions and bad decisions.
But just because there's a change at the top. I don't know that, that suggests to me that there's going to be a 180-degree posture change. I think our competitors have been pretty aggressive, and they've tried to win and they're going to continue to try to win moving forward. And we've demonstrated that we can be successful against all those tactics. And if there's a recalibration or a change, just like there may have been a recalibration or change in one of my competitors early this year or last quarter, we're going to adjust to that, and we're going to continue to run the plays that we've outlined, which is to focus on convergence and focus on those customers that we can bring together and make sure that when we're acquiring new customers, we're getting those that we think it can be accretive which may be leaning into what Pascal is going to talk to you about on ARPU, I would describe what's going on in ARPU more as a feature, not a bug.
When we talk to you about the fact that we're underpenetrated in certain segments, and we know that we can do better in certain places. When we talk to you about our desire to push convergence, which at the front end of investing in convergence means that we give the customer a square deal and a lot of value, that's what happens at the front end of those things, and we believe we get to a more sustainable place moving forward. And over time, what we do is we end up getting more value out of the customer as a result of that. We deepen that relationship with the customer. We move them up a continuum of products and services. We -- as I've said before, we don't just raise prices to raise prices. We raised prices when we think we've given the customer greater value and we try to time it to that.
And so investing in our wireless network to deliver massively superior performance with new spectrum that we're deploying opens up opportunities for us to do things like drive more value price relationship into the customer base to return on those investments.
Pascal, do you want to talk about the ARPU characteristics.
Sure, thing. John, here's the thing to keep -- when we look at our base of customers, we have a pretty broad base of customers. Candidly, we tend to over-index on the higher ARPU continuum. In order to grow service revenue, we have to be willing to also target other places where we're underpenetrated. And as John effectively laid out, that is a part of our strategy. But it doesn't mean that going down ARPU is at the sacrifice of overall service revenue. we are trying to maximize service revenue. And in the fourth quarter, as an example, we expect to have a pricing action that becomes effective, that will contribute to service revenue growth.
So overall, when you're managing a big base of customers like we are, it's important that we try to expand that base as well as, over time, drive more value by giving the customer more and driving more overall top line growth.
The next question comes from David Barden with New Street.
So John, just if I put all the pieces together, the Lumen deal, the Spectrum deal, the desire to get leverage back down to 2.5x the desire to maintain a dividend and an equity stock buyback return recognized in the upper C-band auctions coming. Is it fair to say that when you say that you wouldn't trade assets with anybody that you don't need any more assets that AT&T is out of the M&A acquisition game, the inorganic game and now it's time to build on what you have organically at the margin? And then I have a follow-up.
Dave, first of all, I'm never going to answer a question, absolutely and say never, but I will tell you what I've shared with the management team, which is we have all the assets in front of us, and we've run the plays that we need to run to be successful over the next 5 years and everything that's going on outside of our business right now is external and distraction and there's going to be to the question earlier, maybe new leadership or different tactics stake in or approaches used.
I feel very, very confident in the path we set for this business, and I feel very confident that the actions we've taken over the course of the last several years have put us in a position to be the leader in this industry to lead on retail service revenues by the time we get to 2030, to effectively have better and deeper relationships with more customers for communication services than anybody else. And we have that asset base to do that at this point.
And our job now is to organically invest in this business and make it a better company operate better, serve customers better, become more efficient and put a nail in the coffin of the legacy infrastructure that we have. And those plays all sit in front of us and are all contained within the 4 walls of AT&T, and they don't require uncertain regulatory approvals or difficult external issues or other partners to get it done. It's about us getting it done. And that is absolutely the focus of the rallying cry within the 4 walls of AT&T and how we're talking about it at the leadership level.
And I think you should take that as a strong indication that the management team right now is focused internally about doing the things we need to do to run those plays and do them effectively and not worrying much about what's going on outside of our industry and where assets are.
And so John, -- and so to key off that comment, I feel like I have to ask outside the 4 walls of AT&T, there's been a lot of change in the C-suite. That's obviously what people don't know what they don't know. What is your or AT&T Board's succession plan, how would that look? When might it happen? Would you become Chairman and give up the CEO title to Jeff? And then watch that happen? And could you just kind of elaborate a little bit because everybody is talking about it.
Dave, nice question, but we're focused on what we need to do to operate our business every day right now, and we don't have those distractions that others have. And I know what I'm entirely focused on, which is making sure that the management team understands their priorities and execute effectively. And that's all we're worried about. We're not worried about your question.
The next question comes from Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs.
Following up on the comment related to boosting the long-term organic revenue growth and EBITDA outlook early next year. Has your confidence around accretion from the Lumen fiber assets and the EchoStar spectrum licenses has that confidence increased? Have you spent more time strategizing and looking at those assets? And maybe you could spend a little bit of time also talking about kind of the key buckets in terms of the EchoStar spectrum accretion, whether that's AT&T Internet Air, passing acceleration, some of the kind of infrastructure deployment, cash tax savings, the Boost Hybrid MNO, that would be very helpful.
Mike, I don't think there's any change in our point of view. First of all, we're not that far down the road of when we did the transaction as to where we stand. I think we continue to get data points to support that we have very conservative modeling and our approach to these things. The most notable would be the Lumen asset base, certainly, we have not seen anything in our planning that is unexpected that we said where that come from or that's different than what we expected, I think most importantly, because we did pretty good diligence before we announced the transaction. We were buying a hard asset, in this case, and we did our diligence literally at the hard asset level. So I think we know what we're getting we've managed to get additional confidence.
As you know, we're operating out of region with Gigapower and Gigapower has been scaling nicely. We're in that point right now where we can see the data coming in, in markets that we've been able to build enough that we're beyond very small pox of overbuild and the assumption set that we've used in Lumen is based on our experience in having built outside the footprint, and we see that results are coming in the way we would have expected. And it's doing all the things that we said we need to do on a converged basis, which is driving both products into a household, driving them at the right ARPU, seeing customer satisfaction levels go up, brand gets a better image churn goes down.
All those things are happening and that data is coming in. So it gives us confidence that we're on the right path. And that's why I said earlier that our job is to look organically internally and go execute the place that we know we need to go execute. I would tell you on probably the upside around that is, as you know, we've largely built this as a consumer-oriented play as we build brand reputation in a market and presence in a market, there's no reason to think we can't even move beyond that. And so I think there's upside in our conservative modeling on these things.
On EchoStar, there's the old fashion way that accretion is driven in, which is just going to defer some capital because of the depth we get in the network in place is for capacity. So we defer out splits and augments on capacity. That's an important driver. That's pretty road. We do that every time we buy spectrum. We know how to do those things. We have a better wholesale play. As you know, this moves into a whole network as a service construct for the Boost brand and for whatever DISH, EchoStar chooses to do moving forward. That movement is underway now.
I know that EchoStar is working through some of the regulatory issues around their consent decree to give them the freedom to do everything they need to do. That's probably a question better suited for them to ask how that progress is going. But I can see it on my side that they're migrating a lot of customers over to our network right now. So what we expected to have happen is happening, which is our wholesale revenues are growing and improving right now as a result of that. And we expect some incremental accretion over what we would have had in the business plan because of our previous wholesale relationship with EchoStar, which will add value into the acquisition.
And then, of course, as you noted, the scaling that's going on in Internet Air. This is only going to allow us to be more successful in places where we're not building fiber and find those right business customers and find the right segment of the consumer base that we think has more durability with a converged offer and grow in that area when Pascal shared with you that we're going to be out talking with you in the early part of next year as we get close to the approval of both of these transactions that we would expect to happen early next year. We'll come out and we'll give you the texture around that as to how we have that market segment and what we expect to do.
The good news is, as you can see, operationally, we're moving through those continuums now including deploying the 3.45 spectrum that allows us to get the machine up and running even before we close that transaction, which should -- by the time we get those things in order, start to reflect our volumes in 2026 that we can ultimately give you some better insights too as we move forward.
Mike, one other point to know John said this, but I think it's worth underscoring. When you look at, in addition to adding fixed wireless, the mobility attachment associated with that, currently across our footprint, we are at 50% -- we're better than 50%. So -- and that's really before any meaningful marketing to put behind it. As the spectrum is deployed and as we become more aggressive with marketing, that's another pool of value that we're really excited about.
The next question comes from Sebastiano Petti with JPMorgan.
Maybe Pascal or John, just a clarification question on FWA. You talked about the seasonality within the fiber business, typically in the fourth quarter, as you get towards the holidays, you see a little bit of a step down and 4Q '24 had a little bit of a onetimer because of the work stoppage. In FWA, I mean, have you noticed a similar pattern on an underlying basis? Because obviously, you will see an acceleration. I think, John, you talked about lighting up some of the 3, 4, 5 or 2/3, I think, of PoPs by mid-November. Just any help on how we think about the pacing of underlying subscriber results and then as we kind of think about the broader expansion from the EchoStar spectrum coming on?
And then I guess also sticking with the broadband, I mean, any update on Gigapower and how that's perhaps going? I think there was a press report in the third quarter about Gigapower perhaps bringing on a new ISP onto their network. Just any way to kind of think about that and the risk that your wholesale partners within the, I think piggybacking on Peter's question about getting to the $60 million. Within that, obviously, a decent portion of that would come from open access wholesale partners, how do you assess the risk of your partners meeting that target over time?
Sebastiano, so I'd say there are elements about the holiday season that I can speak to the Stankey household and what we noticed in some of our customer base as people become busy and distracted and they have a lot going on. And as a result of that, I think we all prioritize our time and energy. And while we like to make an acquisition of our product and service seamless and without friction. It isn't yet there. And so people sometimes do research and have to ask themselves some questions. Is this the time they want to change a very important relationship in their life, which is there their Internet service provider.
And I think because of the nature of that season and the bandwidth that people have to get things done, there's just some decisions that are deferred as a result of that. And I don't -- I wouldn't expect that, that would be entirely different for fixed wireless, and it might be for a fiber installation short of the fact that somebody doesn't have to come out to the house.
So do I think we can still move the product during the period? Yes, I do. I think businesses are a little bit different than consumers. And certainly, fixed wireless has a little bit more of event on the business side right now with some of the penetration. So I wouldn't expect that to be as dramatic, but I do believe there's some seasonality that just works its way into consumers and businesses that are busy at that time of year. And that's why you get a degree of seasonality that occurs moves or down.
People don't move homes during the fourth quarter. I don't think that's going to change. That's a dynamic of a buying decision. But we don't have multiple years of experience in fixed wireless where I can be perfectly empirical with you and tell you I know exactly where that's going to come in.
On Gigapower, look, I think our relationship with our partner there has been great. I think they're really satisfied. I think we're satisfied. We'd all like to go a little bit faster. But once footprint is turned up, I think people are looking at the model and saying it's working exactly the way it's working, and I would expect with our partner the way we meet our obligations around rate of penetration and how we bring customers on we are going to continue to be the anchor provider on that network and have the dominant share of customers that are supported over that network, and that is as it was intended to do when the construct was designed will be the foundation of the profitability and the return on that network.
And I don't see anything changing in our results to date or anything that's going to be done going forward to be inconsistent with that. And I'm confident that we're going to get the customers that we need to get and that we're penetrating and the way we want to penetrate. And I don't worry about whether or not a second or third provider on the network ultimately creates a problem for AT&T's retail activities and brand in the market as opposed to are we attacking a segment that we just weren't effective at getting that wholesale can be an extension and increase in penetration at the margin.
The next question comes from Michael Rollins with Citi.
John, there's some questions about whether or not LEO satellites pose competitive threats to your mobile service as direct-to-device LEO's get access to spectrum and improve their technology. And also whether these constellations will impact the future competitive landscape for broadband to the home and business locations. So just curious if you can give us an update on your views with respect to these constellations as competitors to your strategic wireless and broadband services. And if you could also give us an update on how you're planning to offer your own direct-to-device satellite offering to customers?
Mike, I don't know that I'm going to add anything to what you probably heard me say before publicly. I view the LEO technology is a really exciting technology. I think it's going to be fantastic for consumers and businesses. I think it's going to bring a realm of innovation into networking that we're going to see new things pop up that are going to make networks more resilient, more trusted do some things that they couldn't do before. So I'm really excited about them.
I think we're a natural integrator of that technology given our extensive customer relationships, our ability to market, use our brand to aggregate, take friction out of acquisition. So I would expect moving forward that we can be a big purveyor of those products and services. As you know, we have a very close relationship with AST. We want to help them move along and scale their product, and we think it's a unique approach to it where they write from the start.
We're designing satellites to be perfectly compatible with consumer end user devices that were out there that didn't require large investment in CPE and equipment to make it work and we think there is a space for that. And that's why we've advocated for that. I'm interested to see now that others in the LEO space are understanding that they maybe need to engineer these constellations to do more direct to device. And that will be good because I'd like to see a market where there's more than one purveyor of products and services. I think that would be healthy. And we'd certainly support that occurring over time.
The way I think about it is mostly complementary, and I can give you my reasons for that in a minute, but there's going to be places where the LEO constellation becomes maybe a better alternative to a terrestrial solution, certainly in the IoT space, there's going to be circumstances where it might be easier to use LEO to solve certain types of IoT-related applications. That will be part of the innovation of what they bring forward. complete replacement of terrestrial wireless networks strikes me as a -- it's probably not that it couldn't be done, but it would require an awful lot of time and money. I think you can probably ask Charlie Ergen about that people don't always recognize the fact that we do deploy cell sites, and that's part of our capital deployment.
We do an awful lot of deployment of capital inside buildings. Hospitals, stadiums, high-rises, hotels. Those are things that are easily served necessarily from just laying up some 40 megahertz of spectrum on a satellite. And so if you really want a cohesive network that is going to deliver on the kind of AI demands moving forward, which is really managing traffic aggressively, giving strong quality of service on the uplink low latency. I would tell you that just generally speaking, it takes a lot of engineering to do that, and it's embedded over years and years of deployment of capital and work. It's not replaced quickly. It's not necessarily optimal to see from the sky.
I would tell you the other thing you need to think about is while spot beam technology will, of course, get better than maybe a 20-mile radius over time. there are physical limitations to what that can do. Typical cell site right now is probably running roughly about 2-mile radius, a little bit more, a little bit less, in some cases. And when you have over 300 megahertz of spectrum in a 2-mile radius, it's really hard to see 40 megahertz of spectrum over a 20-mile radius, replacing that capacity, especially when you multiply the fact that there are providers on a stick that are doing that and have those kind of scaled networks that have massive backhaul at that cell site 10 gig or better. It's hard to replace that, and it's also hard to outperform that from a performance perspective.
So I do believe they can be really complementary. I believe that ultimately hybrid networks can play think it's very hard in an AI world to build a hybrid network that's going to deliver the kind of performance indoor and outdoor over time that we're building. That's why we think fiber is so important when you have dense fiber and you can pick up workloads closer to the customer. You're always going to have a better performing network and a more scalable network and a network that operates at a lower marginal cost. And that's our belief in why we're playing the way we're playing.
We have come to the end of our time. So that was going to be our last one. Operator, I'll turn it back over to you.
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over for any closing remarks.
We're all said. Thanks for everyone for joining us today.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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AT&T — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
AT&T — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: Gesamtumsatz +1,6% gegenüber Vorjahr.
- Adjusted EBITDA: +2,4% YoY; bereinigte EBITDA‑Marge um 30 Basispunkte erweitert.
- Adjusted EPS: $0,54 pro Aktie, weitgehend unverändert gegenüber Vorjahr.
- Free Cash Flow: $4,9 Mrd (vs. $4,6 Mrd); CapEx Q3 $5,3 Mrd.
- Breitband & Fiber: >31 Mio. Standorte mit Fiber-Passage, >10 Mio. Premium‑Fiber‑Abonnenten; >550.000 Advanced‑Broadband-Nettozugänge (Fiber + Internet Air).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Konvergenz‑Strategie: Fokus auf Kombi‑Kunden (Fiber + Mobil) — Konvergenzrate 41% (+180 bp YoY); Management sieht geringeren Churn und höhere Lifetime Value.
- Gezielte Akquisitionen: Geplante Übernahmen von EchoStar‑Spektrum und Lumen‑Fiber sollen Reichweite, Kapazität und Kostenbasis verbessern; 3,45 GHz wird bereits per Spectrum‑Lease ausgerollt.
- Netzmodernisierung: Abkehr von Kupfer, Ausbau von Fiber und 5G; Wireless‑Modernisierung soll Effizienz und Leistung steigern (Ziel: substanzielle Fertigstellung bis Ende 2027).
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Kurzfristig: Bestätigung der Jahresziele: Service‑Umsatzwachstum im niedrigen einstelligen Bereich; Adjusted EBITDA ≥3%.
- Ergebnis‑ und Cash‑Ziele: Adjusted EPS $1,97–$2,07 (Management erwartet Nähe zum oberen Ende); Free Cash Flow im niedrigen bis mittleren $16‑Mrd.-Bereich; Q4‑Cash ≈ $4 Mrd.
- Investitionen & Verschuldung: CapEx Jahresziel $22–22,5 Mrd (Q4 ≈ $7–7,5 Mrd); Net Debt/Adj. EBITDA 2,59x. Rechtliche Einmalzahlungen drücken Q4‑Cash um ≈ $0,5 Mrd.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Overbuild‑Risiko: Analysten fragten nach Überbau durch Wettbewerber; Management betont Skalenvorteil, aktive Gebietsauswahl und Bereitschaft, Kapitaleinsatz anzupassen.
- Fiber vs. FWA: Nachfrage‑Segmentierung und Marketing waren Kernthema; AT&T will Internet Air außerhalb der Fiber‑Footprints fokussiert einsetzen und 3,45 GHz bis Mitte November in ~2/3 der US‑Bevölkerung einbinden.
- ARPU & Margen: Fragen zu ARPU‑Druck und Akquisitionskosten; Management sieht ARPU‑Effekte als Front‑End‑Investment zugunsten Wachstum/Convergence und erwartet mittelfristig Margenverbesserung durch Modernisierung und höhere Konvergenz.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Call bestätigt operative Momentum im Breitband und solide Cash‑Generation; Management reiteriert Guidance, setzt auf Akquisitionen (EchoStar, Lumen) und Konvergenz als Hebel für nachhaltiges Wachstum. Kurzfristige Risiken: Wettbewerb/Überbau, Promotions‑druck, rechtliche Einmaleffekte; mittelfristig Chance auf spürbare Upside durch Akquisitionen und Netzmodernisierung.
AT&T — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Great. Well, good morning, everybody, and welcome to day 2 of the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference. I have the privilege of introducing John Stankey, who is the Chairman and CEO of AT&T. My name is Mike Ng, and I cover U.S. telecom media and cable here at Goldman. And we have about 35 minutes for today's presentation. First, I wanted to thank you for being here this morning, John.
Thanks, Mike. It's good to be with all of you, and I'll get the housekeeping out of the way, if you don't mind, I'd like to point you to our safe harbor statement, which tells you that we're going to be talking about some things in the future that are uncertain and have things that can't necessarily be planned. And occasionally, sometimes results differ materially from what we discuss. And if you'd like some more information, you can go to our Investor Relations website and see all kinds of fun disclosures to read. So...
Great. Well, to kick things off, I was hoping to talk a little bit about a big picture strategic question. Over the last several years, AT&T has obviously done a very good job of streamlining the business and refocusing priorities around 5G and fiber. The company has also been front-footed when it comes to the convergence strategy -- could you take a few minutes and perhaps walk through your latest spectrum investment announcement and talk about how that aligns to the broader AT&T long-term strategy? And what gives you confidence that you're investing in the right aspects of your business?
Well, effectively, the way I think about this decade of reordering that's going on in U.S. telecommunications is I do believe that there is going to be a decided move to converged solutions and that customers want fundamental simplicity, which is they wake up in the morning, whether you're a business or a consumer, and you say, I want to get on the Internet. I want to be connected. I've got to be able to do what I got to do to run my life or run my business and I really don't want a lot of friction or noise in that process. And I think fundamentally, where technology and capabilities are going that there's no reason that can't be delivered as a possibility to a customer.
And whoever does that more effectively for more customers over time in this reordering of assets that are going on, will ultimately be the leader in the industry. So I think the trajectory we put on AT&T on is to, one, operationally be capable of doing that, and that includes doing things like improving our back of house and our agility and how we operate and run the business. But it also is centered around ensuring that we have the right assets to be able to assemble the kind of networks and connectivity, either owned and operated or partnered with to be able to provide that simple solution to customers. And we have been systemically investing to ensure that we could do that. And I feel real good about the progress we've made over 5 years in improving the operations.
We've obviously, as you all know in this room, been investing at a very high clip to build the kind of infrastructure to do that, most notably, incrementally in fiber, but also reinvesting in other core parts of our business. And it was my point of view that kind of one of the missing pieces that we needed to address was to ensure that our wireless network could hang with anybody else's at best-in-class levels. And there was a mid-band spectrum opportunity for us to dramatically improve our circumstances and our position. And do it in a way that was accretive in terms of driving revenues into the business in addition to doing what it typically does, which is managing our infrastructure on a more capital-efficient fashion avoiding cell splits, running the network more effectively dealing with capacity over time.
And importantly, in my view, when we look at the spectrum portfolio that we picked up, in particular, the mid-band, I had to be cognizant of where that spectrum was going to go over time. My calculus or my point of view, and I think what the management team felt was, it was pretty clear that as a going concern, DISH had its questions. EchoStar had its questions. In fact, in their own disclosures, they were offering that perspective. And so having been around a little while, I know what happens when these moments occur. We know what happens when owners of spectrum go into bankruptcy. And what that means is that spectrum generally doesn't show up in the market for many, many, many years. And it becomes a really significant regulatory fight and legal fight. And my point of view is sitting on the outside is we could either watch that happen. And more than likely, the outcome would not only be extended and take forever to work its way out. And it more than likely would have resulted in probably everybody in the industry feeding on something or we could be preemptive.
We could be -- take the initiative to figure out how to solve this without that kind of a cleansing process that took years and get the assets that we thought were going to be best for our business. And in doing that, by what I feel like is a lot of certainty for our business as we think about completing this decade. And I don't sit around here today in my chair after having made this move and saying, I'm wondering when the next spectrum auction is going to be or what the rules are going to be or what bands are being brought in or am I going to have the capacity to deal with what I need? I now have a lot of knowns in my business. I know where I'm going to build 60-plus million homes of fiber. And I know where those neighborhoods are and I know where I need to go and get that down and we have the ordering and the priority, and we know how to get that done. I now know where I'm going to get all the capacity I need to run my business.
And if the strategy is ultimately to get the greatest share of service revenues of the pool of how customers spend on telecommunications in the U.S., which is our goal to be the share leader in revenues for all spend in the United States. Those assets now line me up to be able to achieve that goal. I know what I can do in fiber first footprints where I can sell converged fiber and wireless to those customers. I know what percentage of the population I'll have that opportunity to do that. I know the locations where that's going to occur, and I can market accordingly. I can do things like pre-see market even before fiber gets in place to use wireless to begin penetrating and positioning the brand. But I also know in the markets where I'm not necessarily going to have the fiber footprint I might want at least long-term. And I've got to play as a wireless-only provider.
I now have the options to address the right segments where combined wireless broadband solution and wireless mobile is sustainable if you hit the right customer base and the right opportunities. And I can get the management team focused on doing that. And the sum total of that set of mechanics gets us in a position where we believe we could come out as the leader in service revenues in the United States as we exit this decade as the best telecommunications provider.
It's a great way to open the conversation and there's a lot there that I'd love to dig into. But you mentioned 2 things that I think point to fixed wireless access as core part of the AT&T portfolio, the preceding the markets in places where you know you're going to expand into with fiber and then the wireless broadband plus mobile wireless product for markets where you're not. Could you maybe just expand a little bit on fixed wireless access, whether the spectrum investments enables you to accelerate your you go-to-market on that side and how you think about returns and that type of product?
Yes. I don't think my point of view on this has changed much, and I've said it multiple times. One aspect I've always shared is I actually think the technology is a great technology for a segment of the business market. There are many businesses, especially in the small and medium segment that their usage characteristics at a location as they required some kind of reliable scaled broadband, but they don't necessarily require the kind of capabilities that might be delivered over a symmetrical fiber solution. And in fact, some of these businesses are very mobile businesses that have relatively small, let's call them, home office kind of constructs.
You go into a -- think about all the service companies that have vans and trucks and contractors and they generally have some kind of a main office where dispatching and those kinds of things occur or maybe inventory is tracked or kept. Their workforce is out and about. And we have great wireless relationships with those kind of companies. And sometimes, we have fiber in a location where a construction yard might be, but sometimes we don't. But they don't necessarily need fiber to run a construction operation. And fixed wireless allows you to do things in certain segments. You go to a storefront and a strip mall. There's a lot of proprietors in the strip mall. If you're running a nail salon, you're not necessarily -- you need broadband, but you don't necessarily need to have the most scaled broadband around.
So there's huge opportunity in business, and I've always been a big believer that having a nationwide footprint of being able to offer Internet, as I described earlier, to businesses wherever they are is really, really important and something I'd be willing to invest in because, obviously, those customers come with a portfolio of services where oftentimes, it's maybe a fixed broadband connection and dozens of mobile devices that have to support that particular company or IoT connections into the vehicles.
And we want to make sure we can do a full solution for those customers no matter where they are. And if you've already seen some of our messaging right now that's showing up in the various places where we promote our products and services, you'll notice we're talking about AT&T Internet as we message that. We don't talk about fiber. We don't talk about fixed wireless. We just talk about Internet. We want the customer to understand we can solve an Internet problem for them, and then we'll decide what the best technology is to bring to them depending on what their particular needs are. And that's, I think, a really important place to be, and I feel good about our network now that is 300,000 square miles larger than some of my competitors that I can do that broadly and have a really compelling dynamic around that. In the consumer space, as I said earlier, the reality is while we've done a fantastic job leading in fiber.
And at 60 million homes plus we will be 1 of the most significant scaled provider certainly with the best technology in the United States with that footprint. There's still, call it, 130 million homes in the United States and the reordering of assets will take a little bit more time. Would I love at some point in time, to have a more consolidated footprint that goes beyond 60 million, if that opportunity presented itself? Sure, I would. Whether or not that happens, don't know at this point, don't know how it might happen. But what I do know is places where I don't have it. I need to make sure that I can be really, really effective for the segment of the market that can be served by nonfiber solutions. That isn't a huge segment of the market, but there is a defined segment of customers that find that to be an acceptable solution that works for the household size that works for their living arrangement, we need to be really good with that and bundling and converging those households if we're going to be the revenue leader.
This opens up that opportunity for me to do that. And frankly, if I'm really good at doing that, if I get really good at doing it in concentrated locations, MDUs, maybe certain developments, that also becomes an opportunity for me to think about how I then justify that investment of extending a fixed network to pick up that traffic after I've seeded the market. And the plus is I've got revenue-ready kind of customers coming in. I'm not building taking 18 months, a large amount of capital investment and then waiting for revenues to come in. And I think if we get good at that muscle, that will be really good over the long haul for the business and how it operates.
Great. Extending the conversation around spectrum. I was wondering if you could respond to some of the news earlier in the week with Starlink acquiring the S-band spectrum from EchoStar. I think at first blush, it appears very complementary to mobile wireless service with D2D. I think there's a concern in the market that, that can foreshadow some sort of satellite first mobile wireless service. I was just wondering if you could give your thoughts on that, talk about some of the challenges that would exist in using satellite to power a mobile wireless network and your views on the implications of that deal for the industry.
So not a surprise that it happened. I think those of us who watch the industry closely, it's -- first of all, it wasn't a surprise that those that are in the LEO business. We're looking for spectrum to extend their offerings. We're in partnership. One of our partnerships is with AST SpaceMobile. And as you know, they are an example of a company that went and acquired some spectrum recently to ultimately bolster their product offerings and sets. And there are others in the industry who have been looking around for options and solutions. And I will tell you, candidly, as we got into the discussions on the EchoStar construct and looked at the various permutations and worked with the counterparty some things become clear in that process of what ultimately may or may not happen.
And it wasn't a surprise to me that, that particular portfolio spectrum went to SpaceX in the end. And is going to be used for direct-to-device. And I'd probably argue that, that may be the highest and best use of that spectrum for a variety of reasons because it does harmonize very well globally. And ultimately, if you're running a satellite business, especially a LEO business, having the global dynamics and economics for and are really important to that. That's kind of what makes that approach to things unique. Now does 40 megahertz of spectrum allow for a robust terrestrial replacement. As we sit here today, the answer to that is no. Over time, could that happen? Could somebody make a commitment to do something maybe different. Sure, it could happen. We just had a fourth wireless player. There's more than 4 players today when you think about how MVNO structures are set up.
But we had a fourth wireless infrastructure player fail after many years of trying to figure out how to build that scaled infrastructure because I think one of the things that you would hear is the learning and takeaway is there's a lot more to build in the wireless network than putting up 50,000 cell sites. That you don't just put a bunch of sticks up and cover stadiums and cover 50 floors of a skyscraper and cover hotels and cover hospitals and cover -- those are done in a very different way, and they require substantial amounts of infrastructure and investment to get that done. They require complicated arrangements with right of access and there's norms about how those things occur. And so could you have an outdoor-based service that offered some fundamental basic connectivity? Sure, you could do that. And could that present opportunities to a business like ours to alter our cost structure in more rural areas where we have sites that we put up that we refer to as poverty sites that are just picking up traffic is on the law on the interstate as people pass through quickly.
And possibly rationalize the network and make it more effective and efficient through wholesale relationships. Yes, it could possibly do those kinds of things. But do I think that when you start looking at terrestrial networks, that are sitting on over 300 megahertz of spectrum that are being engineered to deal with workloads that require low latency, especially as the dawn of AI occurs. And those cores, what you put in 5G stand-alone cores and how you build that backbone, are literally engineered to the round trip latency that's required to get into cloud infrastructure that's going to become more and more important over time as large language models and other things require centralized processing to move through things. I do believe there's a basis for having a scaled network that gets a bit off of the air and into fiber very, very quickly and that those are highly geographically engineered to do that effectively. That's a longer pot. That's something that's going to take some time to get done.
And I think in some cases, there is speculation as to whether or not the technology can move fast enough and long enough to keep pace with what will occur on the terrestrial networks over time as evolution continues to occur on 3GPP standards and other things. So I think the important thing is, and what I would tell the management team and what I do tell the management team as we take nothing for granted. We don't walk in comfortable and complacent any morning. We should walk in paranoid. We should walk in understanding that there's a lot of creative people out there using technology in different ways, and we should understand what those things are. But we should also understand what our strengths are. And what our abilities are. And our strengths and our abilities are that we're going to have the fastest, most robust set of fiber infrastructure in the United States.
We are doing the right things to modernize our network and the ability to do that allows us to see bits across any network origination point, whether it comes from a device, a handset, whether it comes from a fixed mobile connection, whether it comes from a fiber connection we can see that traffic and manage it on a uniform basis, and we can manage it effectively with security and performance.
And if you do that, that's going to be a hard combination over time to be if you're a high-performance networking company, and I think networks are going to be -- have to be high performance to win over time given the way the economy and technology is going.
Yes. That's great. maybe bringing it into some of the more immediate competition. I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit about the competitive activity in wireless and broadband today. Is this in part driving the pivot to the fixed wireless and convergence strategy? And maybe you can expand a little bit more. I know you touched on this on how AT&T is differentiating itself relative to its peers and how that translates into long-term revenue and EBITDA growth.
So I mentioned it earlier. It's a very competitive marketplace. It has been and it will continue to be. I always chuckle a little bit. As I read notes and I see things, and there's always this commentary of well, things seem to be less competitive right now or things are intensely more competitive. My days don't feel a lot different from week to week for some reason, but...
I'm glad we could be a source of...
It always seems to be pretty intense. And I think it's pretty intense now as it has been. Now the good news is, I think what I would say is there's a lot of investment going on in our industry, and that's good. And I think it's good for those who set up policy that have driven some of that. And frankly, some moves that have happened recently with the current administration are probably going to sustain that. Clearly, I've made decisions from my company that are taking some of the benefits of tax reform and what's gone on there and reinvesting them back in the business. I expect others in the industry may do similar things.
And what I think is good is that rationally as people are making those investments are being mindful of getting returns on those investments. And they're taking actions that are appropriate for that to happen. I do see a degree of consistency around that. I don't see people just pouring money down a rat hole for the sake of pouring money down a rat hole. There does seem to be action on the part of everybody to do the right things of invest, build better services, build better capability, but at the same time, extract value from doing that. And I feel really good about that. And I actually think the policies that are in place from a regulatory perspective enable that to happen even more. I mean it's a really good thing from my point of view where if I can invest heavily and put newer technologies out. And at the same time, a regulator allows me to get cost out of the business on stuff that's been around for 40, 50, 60 years and pull that out, that's a good equation.
And that's the right thing for consumers. It's the right thing for U.S. infrastructure, and it's really good for AT&T investors if that kind of a combination is out there. And I see that. And so I believe that's what's happening in the industry. Now my strategy, what AT&T needs to do, I just characterize what I think winning is by the time we exit this decade, which is to be leading in our share of revenues available associated with this industry in the United States, and that's my goal that on a consolidated basis of how customers buy telecommunication services in the U.S. that we will lead in that position. And I'm less concerned around how much of it comes from a mobile device versus a broadband connection. I want the aggregate winning portfolio on that. And that means that we should pick our customers very carefully. Because we should pick our customers that line up to the infrastructure we have to ensure that we get preferred share in places where our infrastructure is great and lines up well.
And in those places where we've got to be wireless only, that we attack the right segments and we think about customer acquisition, the way that we can justify the SAC associated with it because we know the services that we're going to offer have sustainability that we're going to keep the customer for that period of time. And when you're in that situation, it's not every customer and a geography that matches that profile. And so you have to be very, very specific around how you do that and your offers and how you build your marketing strategies around it. And I think that's the next 5 years for us. And I want to be differentiated and being really good at lining up my asset base to the customers that are sustainable and build the confidence of those customers with how we position the brand with the AT&T guarantee and what we're willing to do to remove friction from their life, give them confidence that the provider that they choose to get on the Internet with will stand behind the product and service in a very straightforward and transparent way and establish our company as that distinguishing ability moving forward.
And I believe we've taken some really good first steps in that regard. We have more to do to get the brand in the right place to make that happen. But I think it's a winning combination that we're seeing come back in the data as we talk to consumers. As we start to execute on these things that if we do this right, we'll be in a good place.
Yes. As you mentioned, one of the results of the corporate tax reform is that AT&T has been able to accelerate their infrastructure investments in the United States, including the doubling of fiber passings through the end of the decade. I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit about your confidence operationally that you can accelerate at this pace at the right cost profile? Is it going to become more expensive as you enter into less densified areas? And what are some of the things that give you scale and visibility into the returns on those investments?
Yes. My confidence is high, partly because we do this. We are the largest builder of fiber at scale in the United States today. That's not something we have to earn. We do it every day, and we've been doing it for several years, and you've all seen the data points on that. We shared last December, what our cost profile has been on that building. And yes, there are increases to cost on a year-over-year basis that are driven by things like inflation and densification, and we shared with you that -- what we've seen in aggregate is about a 2% increase in our build costs on a year-over-year basis at a time when, as many of you know, inflation was certainly running much higher than that in places. And we also explained to you the build costs are not the only thing that factor into a business model of running fiber infrastructure. There's certainly the cost to build.
There's also the cost to acquire a customer connect them, and then there's the cost to maintain the network over time. And as we shared with you in that session, our cost of maintenance are dramatically improved as we put this infrastructure out, and we believe they're superior to other technologies that are in the market that competitors use. And so if you get a run rate over the 30, 40 years of that asset is in place and is there and you can operate it more effectively, that's great. We have seen in places where we've been present with fiber longer or cost to connect, and that dynamic starts to change pretty dramatically. I think some folks keep looking at the improvements in our margin structure in that business. So where is that coming from? Well, part of it is coming from the fact that when you ultimately build a base of customers and you have those homes connected, you don't have to reconnect the homes.
And in many instances, when customers come into those homes that have already been connected and the new tenant moves in, we're not even sending anybody out to connect that customer. They're just plugging in and going. And so there's a lot of goodness that comes from operating a scaled network like this that is dedicated in nature where it doesn't require a lot of manipulation in the network facilities to deal with managing capacity and fiber allows you to do that. It allows you to over-provision to every household that's out there, and it gives you a lot of operating flexibility moving forward. In addition, look, we said we'd be at about 4 million homes -- 4 million billed home rate at the end of 2026. We've been close to that level before at a period of time in operating our business. We were the high 3s. We ratcheted down a bit from the high 3s as we were kind of moving through our last build cycle. So getting to 4 is like not a stretch from what you've seen us do in the past and what the engine is capable to go and do over an 18-month period of time as we scale that up, we'll move a little bit past that over time.
But what we do know is when you're the largest scaled provider of doing something, people pay attention to you, people who sell fiber care about what you're doing in your business and they want a stake in your success. People who contract and do services want to work with the largest player in the market because it gives them continuity. And if we can use our portfolio of professional services that we need across our entire business, including what we do in wireless, along with fixed there's a lot of stability that you bring into your third parties that you work with. And so when we're going to go out and say we're going to build another 1 million or 1.5 million in a given year, we're smart enough business people that we don't go out and say, here we're going to do another 1 million or 1.5 million, and we're just going to keep paying you what we're paying you today. We usually go in and say, what are you going to do for the privilege of working with us a little bit more. And there's -- those things that occur -- there's changes in technology and design that make you more efficient that you factor in.
And so when inflation is occurring and costs are going up and density is changing. At the same time, we're getting better. We're getting into other parts of the learning curve. And we don't always offset 100% of those costs of density, but we do offset some of them. And so they're not nearly as dramatic as some might lead you to believe that it might be as you start to move into less dense areas. And frankly, we're operating better. We're penetrating faster. We're keeping customers longer. There's this big debate around what terminal penetration will be. We've been relatively conservative about that as we've talked about in our business case modeling, we assume a 50% terminal penetration rate over the long haul. As we've talked about, I know at different times, if you have the best product in the market, is that adequate? Maybe it should be north of 50%. And if it is, then that will certainly be additional gravy.
But the point is we're not stretching the economics to go out and build some of these areas. We're only building where there's return. And will the return in the last 2 million be marginally lower than what it was in the first 2 million? Yes, it will. They're not quite as profitable in your less dense areas. But that's been the nature of running networks from day 1. It doesn't mean they're not profitable. It doesn't mean they're not returning. They're just not quite returning as much. But it's one hell of a portfolio when you put 60 million homes together in terms of the franchise. And the customer base, it demonstrates and the brand lift that it gives and the ability to sell wireless on top of those things, it's one hell of a portfolio. And when you stop building and you have that portfolio, and the bills are still going out every month and customers are paying you. It generates a lot of cash.
Maybe you can touch briefly also on the wireless infrastructure side of things, open architecture O-RAN. It seems like declining CapEx investments in wireless are going to be used partly to fund the acceleration in fiber?
Yes. Look, we're doing -- that's part of why our footprint is getting bigger. It allows us to sell more services in other places where we're doing that modernization. The network is performing dramatically better, which is raising service levels and customers are noticing that in markets where we maybe had infrastructure that wasn't performing as well as it should. In some cases, that's great. The other exciting part about it is we're making good progress on busting those interfaces open and building an open network. And when you're sitting here looking at an opportunity to build a new air interface at a spectrum band that maybe you didn't have in your network before, and you're going to go out and change a bunch of radios out. There's -- we have 700-megahertz spectrum out there. We're maybe building 600 megahertz spectrum now.
You can build consolidated radios. You have end of service life on a lot of the 700 megahertz radios coming up anyway because they've been hanging for a long period of time. And the fact that we're building open interconnection at that point of the network means that we can have a competitive process of how those radios get built and how we think about them. And that probably allows us to build it less expensively than we might have 5 years ago. So those are the kind of flexible things that are going on, married with what we're doing to modernize the core of the network to collapse all of our routing infrastructure on a common architecture. So whether it's a mobile core or it's a business core or whatever it might be, that that's all on a homogeneous consistent routing infrastructure on general purpose compute that dramatically lowers costs associated with that. That's a big dam deal because it allows us to treat products differently associated with that.
And when you start to open up those interfaces and capabilities, you have the ability to build APIs into your network that allow for your customers to use it more effectively and have the flexibility to go and all that work is underway right now and feel really good about where it's taking us.
In the last couple of minutes here, I was just hoping you could tie it all together for us. You have these goals through the end of the decade. What does AT&T look like exiting 2030? Do we see all this cash flow start spinning off from these investments that you've made right now? And the long-term investments that you've made in the company?
Yes. I would say the same thing I'd say to the employees right now yesterday when I was down in Los Angeles, I had this conversation with the group. And we are now -- after we have made the moves that we've made after we made this most recent announcement on spectrum, we have all the components and the piece parts we need to achieve that objective I talked about earlier, which is being the leader in service revenues in our industry as we get out of this decade. I don't worry about the asset base, and I'm not out there thinking I need something else to be successful. And if you ask me today, if I had a choice, if somebody wave the magic wand and said, you could lead this company, AT&T or you could pick any other one in the industry to work the next 5 years to ultimately drive value and be successful.
Would you pick another company? And the answer is absolutely not. I would not pick another company. I love the asset base that we have right now. And what we are effectively at this juncture is an execution question. In an execution story, and you're right to ask the questions you asked earlier, can we execute on that asset base that's in front of us because it's entirely in front of us. We have everything we need. We just need to go run the place. We need to build the 60 million fiber homes. We need to finish the modernization of our wireless network. We need to do what we need to do in the core to get the flexibility of delivering the right product sets moving forward. We need to retool our distribution in the business market segment to make sure we can hit the small and medium segment the way we are -- those are all things that are entirely in our control.
We don't have regulatory impediments going after these things right now. We've managed to get ourselves in a position where the regulator is supporting all the transition that's necessary in this business, including what we need to do to take out $6 billion a year of costs associated with legacy infrastructure. It's open field running around those things relative to exogenous external dynamics. It is now on the management team inside AT&T to make the magic happen. But I love the fact that it's about everything that's in our control that we know how to do, that's kind of right down the power alley of the things we've done for years that I think we can scale ourselves on and do effectively. And when you end 2030 and you're in that position where investment levels are subsiding because that asset base is where it needs to be, and you're generating the kind of growth on new customers that I described earlier, that's a really magic equation right now of how this business generates cash.
John, it's been a privilege to have you on stage and thank you so much for coming to our conference and speaking with us. This is great.
Mike, thanks for having me, and I appreciate it. Thank you.
Thank you, sir.
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AT&T — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
AT&T — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: AT&T setzt auf Konvergenz: Massive Glasfaser-Ausbaupläne + gezielte Mid‑Band‑Spektrums-Positionierung, ergänzt durch Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), um als führender Anbieter der Service‑Umsätze in den USA bis 2030 herauszugehen.
- Fokus: Management sieht die aktuelle Phase als Ausführungsaufgabe — die nötigen Assets seien vorhanden; regulatorische und steuerliche Rahmenbedingungen unterstützen Investitionen.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Spektrum: Mid‑Band‑Kauf soll Kapazität sichern und Unsicherheiten von Dritten (z. B. DISH/EchoStar) vermeiden; gibt Planungssicherheit für 5G‑Leistung und FWA‑Rollout.
- Glasfaser: Ziel: 60+ Mio. Haushalte mit Fiber‑Footprint; operativer Ausbau soll skaliert werden, Ziel ~4 Mio. billed homes Ende 2026.
- FWA & Konvergenz: FWA als Ergänzung: Zielkunden SMBs, MDUs und Haushalte ohne Fiber; Produktkommunikation fokussiert auf „Internet“ statt Technologie‑Label.
- Netzmodernisierung: Offene Architektur (O‑RAN), Homogene Cores und API‑Fähigkeiten zur Kostensenkung und flexibleren Produktgestaltung.
🔎 Neue Informationen
- Konkretes: Management betont, dass die jüngste Spectrum‑Transaktion viele Unsicherheiten eliminiert und Kapazitätsplanung bis Ende des Jahrzehnts ermöglicht.
- Operativ: Bestätigung des 4‑Mio‑Ziels (billed homes) Ende 2026; Build‑Costs laut Management nur moderat gestiegen (~2% YoY im berichteten Zeitraum).
- Kosthebel: Regulatorische Unterstützung soll helfen, rund $6 Mrd./Jahr legacy‑Kosten zu reduzieren — Hebel für Cashflow‑Verbesserung.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- FWA‑Rendite: Nachfrage nach Margen/Return für FWA; Management sieht FWA als rentabel für definierte Segmente, konkretisierte ROI‑Zahlen fehlen.
- Satelliten‑Deals: Reaktion auf Starlink/SpaceX (S‑Band): Stankey sieht Direkt‑zu‑Gerät als komplementär, zweifelt aber an kurzfristiger terrestrischer Substitution für low‑latency‑Anforderungen.
- Execution‑Risiken: Fragen zu Kostensteigerungen in weniger dichten Gebieten; Management nennt Effizienzgewinne, bleibt aber bei Details zur Margenentwicklung in späteren Ausbaustufen zurückhaltend.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Das Management verkauft ein klares, asset‑zentriertes Wachstumsbild: Spectrum + 60M+ Fiber + Netzmodernisierung sollen AT&T zur Umsatzführerschaft bis 2030 bringen. Bewertung für Aktionäre hängt jetzt stark von operativer Ausführung ab — besonders Fiber‑Adds, FWA‑Adoption, Cost‑Outs und die realisierten Cashflows.
AT&T — Citi’s 2025 Global Technology
1. Question Answer
Welcome back to Citi's 2025 Global TMT Conference. For those of you I haven't met, I'm Mike Rollins, and I cover communication services and infrastructure for Citi.
We have disclosures that are available at the back of the room. And if you don't have access or like another copy, please e-mail me at [email protected].
We're pleased to welcome back Jen Robertson EVP and GM of Mass Markets at AT&T. Jen, thank you so much for joining us today.
It's good to be back. Thanks for the invitation.
Now I heard you might also have a disclosure to make as well?
We do. Our safe harbor statement, I would refer everyone to, and it's available on our AT&T Investor Relations website.
Great. Well, we got that now taken care of, and maybe we'll just jump right in. Jen, maybe it will be just helpful to remind our audience that's here today, the customer verticals and the products that you're focusing on within your role.
Okay. Sure. So AT&T mass markets specifically focuses on our mobility business and our consumer wireline business. So that would be our 5G wireless products and our fiber and AT&T Internet Air that is our fixed wireless product serving consumers in their homes.
Great. And maybe we'll jump right into the announcement from last week. So AT&T announced the acquisition of Spectrum from EchoStar. And if you could just take us -- take a few minutes and walk us through the overall opportunity that you're seeing across the mass market that you're responsible for in terms of what the spectrum can do for AT&T and your customers?
Last week was an exciting time for us. It was a great opportunity for AT&T to stick with our strategy of being a connectivity leader to provide the best broadband connectivity, and we asserted that with the $23 billion purchase of EchoStar's 3.45 gigahertz spectrum and the 600 spectrum. With that, we are able to both in the near term, accelerate our growth strategy and provide for the long-term future, providing connectivity services across IoT, and what we anticipate will be future workloads in the AI space. But in the near term, Mike, as you mentioned, the mass market space will benefit from this spectrum very quickly. The 3.45 gigahertz spectrum is spectrum that we can deploy within our network as soon as we get regulatory approval. We have set this deal up such that we can pre-lease it and deploy it with a very fast software upgrade and essentially start using it right away. And that will enable us to put it in use cases for 3 purposes is how I would set it up. The first is that we can lean in to fixed wireless outside of our footprint, and that allows us to compete for price-sensitive customers with fixed wireless and a plus wireless converged play. That's a space we've known that we can grow share in wireless and compete for a segment we are underpenetrated in. The second is that it allows us to accelerate our legacy decommissioning project, that is inside of our footprint, the work that we are doing to lower our cost structure and pull our legacy infrastructure out of the network. Again, moving these customers on to fixed wireless gives us another converged play where we don't already have them on our wireless products. And then lastly, in our footprint where we are building fiber, fixed wireless with this capacity on 3.45 gigahertz spectrum allows us to put customers on fixed wireless as a product, pair it with wireless and anchor that household while we are building fiber to those households. And so it's a bridge to future fiber, anchor the home, migrate those customers to fiber in the future and grow the relationship to an even more valuable one in the future. So there are near-term accretive moves that we can make with this spectrum that make it very valuable to us in mass markets, and then there's a long-term play that sets us up for future workloads well into the next decade.
So maybe just to drill into this for a moment. So the way I think people have been thinking a little bit about convergence has been, okay, where you have fiber and of course, you're nationally mobile, you know you have that advantage. But earlier, maybe last year, you were a little bit more, as a company, hesitant or restrained in the way that you're approaching FWA. So does this really cement a national convergence strategy for AT&T?
What it does for us is it allows us to lean into fiber first, which remains our strategy. And we talked about this deal from last week, it shouldn't be lost that we've also, in parallel, announced that by the end of the decade, we'll now be in over 60 million homes with fiber. And so that very quickly becomes a massive scaled fiber network. And then with this spectrum, we have quite a bit of capacity to go fixed wireless. So I would say we have a national ability to go wireless and to be an AT&T Internet provider nationally. So it does open up the door for us to go out and advertise NBA householding name nationally for internet connectivity. Pair wireless with it, and we can go aggressively pursue those customers converged no matter where you are.
One more on this. So we were talking about the 3.45. What about the 600? How does that help AT&T and your customers?
We are very pleased with the spectrum that we picked up last last week. And what I would tell you is that is valuable low-band spectrum. Low-band spectrum is always good to have. We're in a good position today, and that sets us up, as I said earlier, for the future. When we look forward, we certainly see a need IoT use cases. AI use cases will continue to put demand into the network. And so we see beyond the next couple of years where we have opportunity for fixed wireless well into the future and need for continued low band capacity. And so when we were looking at the deal, it was twofold. Is it accretive now, and does it set us up for potential future capacity needs.
Very helpful. Moving over to the Mobility segment. How does AT&T differentiate your postpaid phone go-to-market strategy to continue to grow subs on an annual basis?
So first and foremost, it is our converged strategy. And we look at this and say, we have opportunity to grow at 2 ends of the spectrum. We have opportunity with our high-end customers and converged is what differentiates us at scale. The other thing that differentiates us is the ability to come out with both -- with ownership of both networks and to be able to guarantee our service. When we look at what customers value most, and that's how we center all of our moves, what customers value most is network connectivity that they can rely on. It has to be connectivity that they depend on no matter where they are. They want to be connected everywhere. So having ownership of both networks, being able to do that no matter where they are and guarantee it, is something that is relevant and that provides customers demand for choice. They consider this most when they choose a provider and when they stay with a provider. And nearly 80% of customers say they want that connectivity, both wireless and broadband at home from the same provider. That differentiates us. The second is to value customers and provide deals that matter to them. It doesn't have to be deals that are one-offs. There are perks that are one-offs. I say we're not going to bring you doughnuts, but we're going to bring you connectivity and perks that are relevant to your connectivity. The second thing -- or the third thing is service and experiences that they deserve. And we've come out with the AT&T guarantee this year saying we are going to make you worry about it. We aren't going to make you worry about calling us. We will actually proactively come to you, and in the occasions where we don't get it right, because nobody is perfect, and we aren't going to get it right every time, we will make it right. The burden is not on you as the customer. So those 3 things and the ability to do that across a fiber network and a wireless network differentiate us. The ability to grow customers are, we know that attracts customers in consideration. We know it keeps customers, and we're the only one that can do it at scale across both networks.
And so in the past, AT&T has talked about the measurable benefits of best deals for everyone. Is this service commitment that you're now giving customers. Is that also something that you see as a measurable benefit to customer lifetime value?
We do know that convergence is a measurable benefit. We know that the guarantee is lifting customer satisfaction, and we know that when we make it right, that customers are more satisfied, even when something goes wrong, they are more satisfied after the fact than they were before.
So the first half of the year saw a real significant and, I think, practical purpose is an unexpected increase in the switcher pool. What are you seeing now in terms of the switcher pool? And any thoughts on how it plays out for the balance of the year?
The first half of the year certainly was competitive. We talked about that in our second quarter earnings. I like how we played the first half of the year. We came out in really good shape. And it was 1 of those moments where we knew we had the offers, we knew we were bringing in customers of high value, and we demonstrated we were willing to compete for those. And when we compete, we win. Where we have fiber, we win, where we bring the right offers to customers, we win, and we are able to market those the right way and have the distribution in place to get those customers into AT&T. So while it was competitive in the first half, I feel like we really showed what we can do. And we said in our second quarter earnings call that we had in our plan and in our outlook that the second half would be just as competitive. So I would tell you that as we're 2/3 of the way through the third quarter, it's playing out as we anticipated. No surprises so far. We're 2/3 of the way in, and the peak competitiveness comes towards us. So the seasonality is coming at us. With respect to -- obviously, it always happens as new devices launch and as we go into the holiday season. So the rest of the year is in front of us, but no surprises so far, and we like how we're positioned.
It feels like this time of year, we start thinking about the next year. And 1 of your competitors mentioned the possibility that industry growth slows down, impacts from immigration, maybe some maturation of the business market. What are your early indicators on what industry growth looks like, and how that impacts AT&T?
We've consistently said and we said coming into this year that the industry is healthy, it is growing but that the growth rate would moderate post COVID and post the expansion of age groups that we're giving devices and so forth. And coming into this year, we had built into our plan that immigration would have an impact and knew that, that was into our outlook for the year. What I would tell you with respect to the industry number itself and with respect to AT&T's position in it? I think if you're the market share leader, you're really worried about how much the industry is going to grow, and that number matters because that's where you go seek your growth. When you're in third place, and you can disrupt, you're not really worried about the industry growth number because growth is where you're going to take it from. And that's the beauty of where we're positioned, and it's even better when you're sitting on the assets that we have. So I like where we are, and I'm not too focused on the industry number. What I'm focused on is we have the network assets that we've just amassed, and what we have in front of us we have a converged differentiated play, and we have the distribution and the offers and the trust of customers that we've built. So there is literally no structural reason across our spectrum and across our wired assets that we can't go compete and take share, and we've positioned our teams to know they can win. So industry number or not, I like where AT&T sits.
And then just maybe going back to the switcher pool, how much of this larger switcher pool contributed to the increase in first half churn relative to other factors that may have been responsible for that, and you mentioned that things are kind of moving on track for the second half. Can you remind us what you're planning for in terms of churn for the back half of the year?
We had indicated that we expected churn to, again, hold steady through the second half of the year from our first half levels, and it would then follow predictable seasonality. What we saw in the first half of the year, obviously impacting AT&T, specifically, was that we came into the year, exited last year and came into this year with actually a higher number of customers eligible for our contract roll-off. We are at that rate where our customers rolling off of our device promotional rates was at the peak and was coming into the first half of this year, that impacted some of our churn levels. And then we said in our second quarter earnings, we expected that we would stay at the rates we were at and that we would then predict seasonality going through the second half of the year. We're still on that outlook and haven't changed our expectations there. Other than that, we're not seeing any change in consumer behavior that would indicate broader macro issues. I know there's a lot of talk around the industry around pricing actions and other things that might be impacting consumer churn from the pricing actions that we have taken, we are able to stay within our guidelines and expectations. And I think that has a lot more to do with how we take our actions, how we treat our customers for it. And the fact that we've been able to very much target those and haven't taken recent actions. I just feel like we exchange the value with customers the right way.
And then on the competitive side of the equation, any changes there that you're seeing or that investors should be mindful of, including the cable companies kind of leaning further into their converged promos?
I know cable is talking about that. We heard the message in the second quarter. We've been competing with cable for a decade. I like where we're positioned there as well. We're holding our own. Where we have fiber, we win. And that's, I think, our best competitive advantage against cable, and we continue to add wireless customers with fiber. So that certainly bodes in our favor there. The addition of fixed wireless gives us another tool to compete outside of our fiber footprint. And so I like that advantage that comes in our direction as well. I haven't seen an impact yet from any of the offers that have come out.
And I want to get to FWA in a few moments. And then maybe just kind of zooming out a little bit to just overall mobility service revenue. You talked about the opportunity to sustain subscriber growth. Do you also see the opportunities to sustain mobility service revenue growth? And maybe you could share some of the key drivers. It's probably worth noting, right, that your mobility business, unlike your competitors doesn't include fixed wireless, which we're going to get to in a moment. So yours is more of a pure mobile...
Pure mobile revenue.
Yes.
So to be clear, right, we have said consistently measure of success for us and mobility is service revenue growth. I think it's tough to do an apples-to-apples net add or about our volume growth just because our net add growth also doesn't include other kind of lower quality subscriber growth. We don't we don't include prepaid to postpaid migrations, as an example, when we report net add growth. So that would be a difference in our compares similar to service revenue growth doesn't include fixed wireless. So service revenue growth, we certainly see opportunity there. We look at opportunity not just in subscriber growth. We look at it as other additional products that we can add on. We have a healthy insurance business. We have healthy upgrade programs that customers sign up for like our next up products. We have additional products like our International Day Pass, our recently launched Cruise Pass. We have our Turbo product, a lot of additional features that customers choose because it benefits their connectivity services, and that provides additional revenue on top of the service rate plan. And then as customers choose to move up in their rate plan mix, it provides revenue growth opportunity. So even as we look towards adding subscribers, maybe in our underpenetrated segments like a price-sensitive segment that we certainly have opportunity to grow subscribers, and we can bring subscribers and lower in plans and move them up over time or add products and provide revenue growth potential.
I think just the history of this business for a while was that ARPUs could be deflationary in nature. And you mentioned the up-tiering opportunity that you have. And so the question is, is this mobility category broadly maturing into a place were up tiering and annual pricing actions just become more customary like we've seen, whether it's in cable video or just the larger broadband business.
I think that customers really expect a value exchange that benefits them. And we've been on this journey. We've talked about it quite a bit. We've been on a 5-year journey that is customer-centered, and the company has pivoted towards that. It is driven by customer research and what matters to them. Our value proposition is truly centered on what is the value we bring to customers. And that is our network connectivity and our experience. And so I come back to the network connectivity first and foremost, has to be reliable. That's what customers expect. The second is the experiences, whether that is customer service, whether it's the simplicity and the seamlessness of the products they have or the types of digital experiences, omnichannel experiences on how they experience our products and our transactions with them, that has to be simple, seamless, personalized. And so when we think about the value we bring to customers, they have to have the belief that, that is greater than the price they pay. It doesn't mean they pay the lowest price. It just has to be that they believe that the value they get is worth the price they pay. And so that centers our belief around where do we have growth in revenue opportunity. And so that really -- that informs our view on when we provide a premium service, we can charge a premium price. When we are attracting customers in a different cohort or a different segment, we charge less, and the value that's provided has a different mix. And so it provides an opportunity to grow across the entire spectrum.
And maybe just digging deeper into convergence. Maybe you can give some more specifics on how convergence is in the market for your customers today? And what are the future opportunities to do more with converged offerings?
Our converged growth in some ways, is just starting, which is so exciting when you think about the fact that we're over 40% today, and that we've continued to accelerate our converged rate. And I say that it's just starting because we haven't even put the full muscle of marketing behind it. When we look at our fiber converged rate, and we look at even our Internet Air fixed wireless converged rate, which is just now starting, as you mentioned, essentially, what we've done there is we've had marketing for fiber in areas where only fiber is available. Now 30 million households, but that is in specific markets, and for quite a while, it was only kind of in this Swiss cheese build area. So we could only market it pretty quietly because we've said the maddest customers for fiber -- for AT&T Fiber are the ones who can't get it. That's the loudest complaint we get. And so from a marketing perspective, we had to be very careful and targeted. And for fixed wireless, candidly, we reached 1 million customers in June and the customers we were selling to were ones that we're walking into our stores. It wasn't a broad marketing campaign. So the ability for us to launch now an AT&T Internet marketing campaign to get the AT&T brand nationally associated with internet and to attach wireless to it, gives us efficiency in that marketing, makes it much more effective, but puts it out there at scale and provides such a growth opportunity to it that we can really light the fire and go. And that's what makes it really exciting.
And I think we talked about this last year. On the pricing side of convergence, what's the discount that, if any, right, that's needed to get this customer to bundle and converge. And is that something that we just need to be mindful of that there is a cost to the benefit from the lifetime value of lower churn or maybe a lower acquisition cost for the combined products.
Right. So we do discount at this point. And I've said it openly, I think that's the right move to get customers on. There's a few things that I would call out. First and foremost, the value of these customers is that they bring revenue in on our wireless side and our broadband side. And that is something that can get lost as we look at the revenue through 2 different P&Ls when we report externally. But we are bringing in revenue on both, and it's the wireless business that gets burdened with the cost of acquisition. So that's an important piece to note as you look at our business. That said, the wireless service revenue continues to grow, and we raised guidance on our service revenue. So even as we are growing, our converged base with wireless and with a discount, we are bringing in more valuable customers. Our converged customers have a 15% higher LTV because they tend to have more lines. They tend to buy higher internet speeds and they have lower churn on both products. So they stay with us longer. That's what gives us the confidence to invest more to bring them on. Then we have the opportunity to grow with additional products. The biggest piece is that if we stop at a discount, we failed. This isn't about just bundling and getting them on the AT&T network, that's step 1. We want as many of those customers on the network as possible. But it is about truly building converged products and experiences that continue to differentiate because you have both with AT&T. Internet backup, wireless backup is a step 1. Why is it better to be an AT&T fiber customer and an AT&T wireless customer because your internet never goes down at home, period, full stop. And that's literally just scratching the surface of what we have on our product road maps or why is it better? So I would just offer that it's distribution, it's offers, it's marketing that get us into the home, add customers on to network. But then we've got to go deliver on the product road map, step 1 wireless backup.
So digging deeper on broadband with no pun intended there, whatsoever. When you think about annual fiber passings I mean, from our side, it's going from, I think, what, 2 million to 3 million to 4 million and then you add another 1 million for the pending acquisition of consumer fiber, so you get 5 million passings a year, and that significantly accelerate quarterly broadband net adds for AT&T?
So we would certainly anticipate, and we've talked about over time that you would expect fiber net adds to grow as those come in. It's all a factor of the timing of the build. I wouldn't straight line that through, but it is certainly a factor of as the build comes through, you would expect fiber net adds to increase.
And as we've been talking about the ARPUs and the pricing and you talked about some of the benefits on revenue growth, even while converging the fiber broadband ARPU has been doing very well. Is there anything else specific to unpack in terms of what's helping that and the opportunity to keep improving broadband fiber ARPU.
I think there's opportunity on both sides. We remain priced under table. We're a better product at a lower price. I'd also be sensitive to the broader macroeconomic environment and sensitive to where we want to penetrate in certain segments. We'll come out with different offers. We launched some offers in very targeted spaces today that are lower priced, just to simply go after a different segment, where we have built that is older, more mature, the marginal cost to add a fiber subscriber in a highly penetrated area to get the penetration up is significantly lower. And so the ability for us to price differently within a broadband area, is -- candidly, it gives us more optionality as we go through. And so we have room to grow ARPU there, yes. Are we going to go after getting the penetration in there, getting the wireless attached and then grow from there, absolutely in certain areas.
And then shifting over to fixed wireless. So what have you learned about the demand and the performance of FWA across different market geographies as you've been expanding the mid-band coverage.
About fixed wireless in there?
Yes.
Look, we've learned that customers certainly have a desire for the broadband coverage where it's better than what they have currently. We know that mid-band coverage provides a quality service where, again, we don't have fiber and that customers are satisfied with the experience. We get positive feedback there. So it's given us the confidence to grow and to lean in more.
And the improvement, I think AT&T has talked about better FWA net adds in the second half of the year relative to the first half of the year. And is that improvement still coming from just that inbound store activity before you get to some of that, we'll call it, push marketing that you were talking about earlier?
I would say that it was all part of our plan, broader plan.
And in terms of coverage, like is there -- can you size the FWA footprint today, and where it's going in terms of the households.
We haven't provided any guidance on that, no.
But you mentioned earlier, you're going to be expanding now to maybe more so outside of the incumbent territory.
Right. Outside of our traditional footprint.
Traditional, yes, traditional wireline footprint. And so how is FWA marketing different than fiber? And how does that go to market maybe a little bit steadily different than marketing that fiber broadband product in the marketplace?
So I'll tell you, our messaging is the same from the standpoint that we'll market it as AT&T Internet. And as customers come in and check their address, whichever 1 they're eligible for will present that product. From a standpoint of how is the marketing different, how do we target certain segments, we will test and iterate based on the market we're in, the target audience we want to pursue, and we will test and learn as we go with respect to the message that works with respect to the offers that resonate more, we are very much in that phase, both with fiber with converged offers and with fixed wireless. And so I think what's interesting for us, Mike, is we have new tools in our toolkit and being able to use the AT&T Internet message is so new for us and our ability to personalize these or to go local is also fairly nascent for us. And so we aren't afraid to go out, test it and adjust. And we've been doing that a little bit with wireless over the last year. So bringing internet into the fold is an exciting opportunity.
And AT&T has been also promoting the open access fiber business model. Can you just review with us in terms of how that works in terms of AT&T's ability to sell services through the open access model. And is there a possibility because of the terminology that other parties could actually resell the same fiber footprint?
So what I would say about -- I'll reference our performance in that model. And I would say we're very pleased. What we've done with that model is proven to ourselves that the AT&T brand and AT&T Fiber hunts outside of our footprint. And it does so very well that our distribution models work that our brand hunts out there and that we can attach wireless as well, if not better, outside of our footprint as we can in. And so that gives us a lot of confidence about our ability to grow wireless share and to attach and penetrate the fiber footprint.
You mentioned earlier the opportunity with the Spectrum acquisition to augment and maybe speed up the legacy migration. Can you just share with us maybe some additional details on how that's going? Because you already have -- back from the Analyst Day, you shared some of the wireless products that you have to migrate customers over. So where are you on that journey?
We are accelerating that journey. We're doing very well. We've made a lot of progress with a favorable rulings from the FCC, and we certainly appreciate their support, and I have a peer who is leading that effort, and she has just done a phenomenal job leading all of us through that transformation. On the consumer side, we've had a lot of success. It is an area where we've been able to move consumers from a legacy product to fiber. That's certainly -- it's a fairly easy proposition for customers that are willing to make the leap. And so that is one where we've been able to migrate customers and actually get ahead. So we have worked through quite a bit of backlog, where customers have been on copper legacy products, migrate them to fiber. And at this point, as soon as we build fiber in the neighborhood, we're able to get customers off of that copper, move them over, and as soon as we can build it, we get them off the network. And so we're doing very, very well there. And as soon as she's able to work through all the other more complicated traps, we just say, what can we do to help and she does all the heavy lifting.
And just to round out this conversation on broadband, there have been some changes to the BEAD program. Are there any incremental considerations or opportunities for AT&T with respect to size, timing on what you may be able to do in terms of expanding your footprint with BEAD.
I would say we continue to participate where it makes sense. And so as long as those bids are economical for us and provide the right returns, we are certainly supportive and continue to participate.
Jen, thank you so much for joining us today.
Absolutely. Thanks, Mike.
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AT&T — Citi’s 2025 Global Technology
AT&T — Citi’s 2025 Global Technology
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernbotschaft: AT&T nutzt den $23 Milliarden Erwerb der EchoStar‑Spektren (3,45 GHz und 600 MHz) als kurzfristigen Hebel für Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), zur Beschleunigung der Legacy‑Abschaltung und als Kapazitätsreserve für IoT‑ und künftige KI‑Workloads. Fiber‑first bleibt Strategie; Spectrum erlaubt nationales "AT&T Internet" und schnelle softwarebasierte Deployments nach regulatorischer Freigabe.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Spectrum‑Use: 3,45 GHz kann laut Management sofort per Pre‑Lease und Software‑Upgrade eingesetzt werden, um FWA außerhalb der Fiber‑Footprint zu skalieren und im Footprint als Bridge zu fungieren.
- Convergence: Fiber + Wireless bleibt Differenzierer; converged Kunden haben laut Management ~15% höhere Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) und niedrigeren Churn.
- Go‑to‑Market: Nationales "AT&T Internet" Marketing, Open‑Access‑Modelle wurden positiv getestet; Personalisierung und lokale Tests sollen Wachstum effizienter machen.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Konkretes: Kaufpreis $23 Mrd., Ziel: >60 Mio. Haushalte mit Fiber bis Ende des Jahrzehnts. Management betont Near‑term‑Wert durch sofort nutzbare 3,45 GHz und langfristige Kapazität via 600 MHz. Keine neue quantitative Guidance zu FWA‑Footprint oder jährlichen Passings genannt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Churn & Switcher: H1‑Churn wurde durch erhöhte Vertrags‑Roll‑offs und Switcher‑Aktivitäten beeinflusst; Management hält an vorheriger Erwartung für H2 fest (stabile Raten, dann Saisonalität).
- Preis/Discount: Converged‑Rabatte werden bewusst eingesetzt; Management argumentiert, dass Lifetime‑Wert und Cross‑Sell die Investition rechtfertigen.
- FWA & BEAD: Erkenntnisse: Kundenzufriedenheit mit Mid‑Band FWA; footprint‑Zahlen wurden nicht quantifiziert. BEAD‑Teilnahme bleibt selektiv, nur bei wirtschaftlich sinnvollen Geboten.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Acquisition und Konvergenz erhöhen AT&Ts strategische Optionen und könnten kurzfristig FWA‑Nettozugänge und langfristig höheren LTV liefern. Entscheidend sind regulatorische Freigaben, Tempo der Software‑Deployments, Fiber‑Build‑Timing und erfolgreiche nationale Marketing‑Rollouts.
AT&T — Bank of America 2025 Media
1. Question Answer
to the Bank of America Media and Telecommunications Conference. Once again, Mike Funk. I head up the telecommunications comm infrastructure and comm software research at the bank. Really very happy to have AT&T and Pascal CFO. He with us this morning to kick off, to kick off day 2. So Pascal, thank you for being here.
I did want to point out first and should be up on the screen. I think we had a safe harbor agreement if you all to look at here, pretty standard, but I just wanted to make sure we covered that. first before getting into the Q&A. Pascal, thank you again for coming.
My pleasure. Looking forward to our discussion.
Absolutely. So wanted to start maybe with current events. So last week, you -- last Tuesday, you announced agreement to acquire EchoStar spectrum, both the 600 and then the mid-band spectrum. You did a call after the announcement. But maybe go back and just give us a little bit of the history to the lead up to the agreement to acquire that spectrum. And then from your seat in the CFO office, the framework that you put around the acquisition and the approach to valuation.
Sure thing. Look, if you would ask me at the start of the year, would we have been making a significant spectrum purchase? I probably would have said probably not because the next major auction isn't until likely 2027. But as fate would have it, you had a set of events that really unfolded over the last, say, 2 to 3 months that really presented and a unique opportunity for AT&T and its shareholders. In particular, I think the FCC indicated that they really wanted to have EchoStar deploy some of its spectrum to benefit consumers and that presented us with an opportunity and with that, we had an outreach from EchoStar to see whether or not there was interest in any of their spectrum holdings.
Clearly, the mid-band spectrum was something we thought was fit nicely and was adjacent to our card holding nationwide holdings over 400 markets and we thought it was a no-brainer because it was going to allow us to deploy with virtually no cost. Also, we were surprised when they showed a willingness to sell the low-band spectrum, you don't get that opportunity very often. And when we looked at those 2 bands of spectrum, and we said, look, this is something we can deliver a really attractive return on from our -- to our shareholders.
The way I think about it, when you look at any of those acquisitions, first, you say, okay, how much capital is currently in your plan that these acquisitions will allow you to defray and that was fairly meaningful. Even after factoring in the cost to deploy that -- the low band spectrum in this instance because the mid-band doesn't really have much incremental costs associated with it. So that's the first place you start.
Second, you say, okay, does this give me an opportunity to expand the population that I have for driving fixed wireless subscribers. And it does, it expanded a number of locations we can offer fixed wireless services. Within our footprint, we think that's incredibly important because it allows us to in instances where we haven't gotten to fiber, but we plan to. It allows us to accelerate our legacy decommissioning, which as a reminder, we said at the end of last year, we're currently carrying about $6 billion of costs associated with our legacy copper network.
So it allows us to be able to accelerate some of that decommissioning. It also outside of our footprint allows us to offer a broadband and wireless product in a converged bundle. And we think that's an incredibly exciting opportunity in particular, when you think about the value segment to be able to really target the value segment using both a broadband and a wireless product at an attractive price point. But we think it's something that we will -- that the opportunity is fairly attractive.
Additionally, whenever you have fixed wireless, you will have opportunities to converge both in and outside your footprint. And finally, look, over time, this also allows us to expand our relationship with DISH. DISH will now expand its existing MVNO agreement with us. As a reminder, when we initially -- we signed a deal with them in 2021 that had a term of 10 years, a minimum of $5 billion. This allows us to expand upon that. So there are various ways we are getting returns on this.
And I think when I take a step back, this was a unique opportunity that allowed us to accelerate many of the things that we're trying to accomplish. And it does so in a way that it helps us accelerate our revenue and EBITDA growth over -- relative to what we had previously expected. And I think the outcome for AT&T shareholders is a great thing here.
Great. Thank you, Pascal, for that. I think you touched on it, but the cost to deploy the 600, I think last week, you said that the cost of deploying the spectrum will fit within your capital spending plan envelope that you've already provided to us, right? But that's also net of less densification and maybe some other factors as well. Can you discuss the cost broadly on a gross basis to deploy? I think there's some debate about how much it's going to cost to deploy this 600?
Yes. Just as a reminder, in the second quarter with the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, we announced that we plan to spend more capital -- we were -- our previous guidance was that we were going to spend $22 billion, around $22 billion annually. With the One Big Beautiful Bill, we've increased that to between $23 billion and $24 billion. And that was principally because of incremental fiber locations. We believe we can manage within that $23 billion to $24 billion of annual capital spend and still roll out the spectrum that we, that we acquired the 600.
We haven't said specifically how much, but there is, on the one hand, we're going to save money as a result of not having to densify because of the spectrum acquisition -- the mid-band spectrum acquisition and the low band spectrum acquisition. But going against that is the deployment cost, and we think we could manage within the $23 billion, $24 billion portfolio spend.
And one more question on this. We'll move on to more looking forward or operating. You could avoid that capital spending simply through a spectrum swap and a carrier that has 700 rebar deployed and they've already deployed the 600. Is there a reason or a logic behind why that type of swap, would it make sense to AT&T? .
Look, we're really happy with the position that we're in with this acquisition. As people who are responsible for generating value to our shareholders, if there are opportunities that somebody believes that they can unleash more value to us, we'd consider it. But it would only come if we believe that it was going to generate more returns to our shareholders.
Great. I want to skip over to talking about the wireless market in general. So looking back entering 2025, I think there was a pretty broad consensus that we were in a sweet spot for wireless, where carriers were able to take price and you had relative stability on a competitive basis and churn rates were stable and relatively low. And then we came into the year and the promotional activity may be higher than people expected, churn rates ticked up, maybe more negative reaction to price increases some carriers talk.
So the concern was elevated going through 2Q about competitive activity, churn rates and SAC. And I think at Q2 if I'm going to paraphrase for you. But you said, look, we expect a similar environment in the second half of the year, right, implying flattish churn rates going through -- going through the second half. So now that we're basically 2/3 of the way through 3Q, in my opinion, it seems like maybe it's been more rifle shot or targeted competitive activity relative to 2Q maybe it's slackened a little bit. Can you comment on what you're seeing during the quarter and your previous comments about churn rate and that remaining consistent?
Yes. Just to level set, coming into the year, we expected there to be less industry growth than there was last year. And we saw the same phenomenon '23 to '24, there was less industry growth. And we -- our planning assumption coming into the year was that there was going to be less growth, in part because of the headwinds associated with immigration. We started to see those probably in the middle of last year when the Biden administration began to tighten the border, and we expected that to continue, if not accelerate with the new administration.
And that has, in fact, played out as we anticipated. Also for us, we were coming to the end of our device promotional cycle for many contracts. And so we expect it as a result, there would probably be some level of elevated churn associated with that. in addition to those 2 factors, which we cited at the very beginning of the year. I think Doge has had an impact on the activity in the first half of the year. So you have seen headwinds in the public sector. And on top of that, I think there was some elevated activity in the first half of the year associated with the tariffs, the concern around tariffs and consumers trying to get out ahead of that. All those factors played out in the first half.
And look, I'd take a step back in the first half of the year, we performed really well, and we're really pleased with how that went. Now with all those factors at play, in the second -- when we reported second quarter results, we said, look, our planning assumption for the back half of the year was that things were going to -- the environment is going to continue in the same -- being impacted by the same factors that we saw in the first half of the year.
And we're 2 months into the third quarter. We haven't hit the peak of the holiday season, which typically starts mid-September and goes through the end of the year. But so far, I'm really pleased with how we're doing. And the business is performing well. We're executing well and things are playing out as we anticipated.
No, that's outstanding. You touched on it for a moment, but Doge, do we feel that, that impact is behind us? Or could there be more to come, do you think, from Doge and then linking the immigration question too. Some have suggested that impact of immigration plus just fewer second line additions than we saw kind of during even post COVID, could shave $3 million off of net adds in 2026. I'm not asking to give '26 guidance -- does that rough math, at least the scale of it? Does that make sense to you? -- the Doge and then the trending in net adds.
I would say, relative to what we had said previously, Doge is playing out as we saw in the first half of the year. And notwithstanding that we're performing very well. I'm not going to speculate on what the future holds in that regard. And similar with immigration, we're really happy with how we're performing, even though immigration is not the tailwind that has been the last several years.
Okay. I wanted to maybe skip a little bit more higher level strategic if that's okay, okay with you. You've made in investments in the last year and highlight a lot of opportunity, whether it's inspective investment or expanding the fiber footprint. So how have your financial priorities changed or shifted over that same period of time?
Look, they really haven't. If you think back to what we have said the last several years is our priorities are investing in our business for growth. Most of that investment has come through organic investments that we've made in both spectrum and fiber build. But we saw an opportunity with both the Lumen transaction and now with the EchoStar transaction to add to those investments and to accelerate that.
This is about accelerating revenue and EBITDA growth. and we think these assets allow us to do that. And then on top of that, because of the great work we've done on the balance sheet in the last several years, we can do all of this and still return pretty significant value to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks.
And one of the reasons why we spent so much time getting to the 2.5x range is because we felt that, that was the level that gave us an opportunity to continue to invest for the growth, we believe, is available in the industry. And at the same time, take advantage of opportunities that come to market like the EchoStar spectrum. And we're able to do that without disturbing the return that we've committed to shareholders. So we feel really good about where we're at, and I think AT&T and its shareholders are -- have a lot to be proud of and excited about.
Great. Thank you for that. In your updated guidance at a 2Q '25 results, obviously, before the announcement you made last week. So can you update us on how the EchoStar transaction impacts your thinking on short and long-term guidance?
Sure thing. First, for 2025, we don't anticipate any impact on our guidance. And we reiterated when we announced the transaction, our 2025 guidance. Similarly, when you think about the long-term guidance we provided, here's what we've said. We expect the EchoStar transaction to close around the middle of next year. So for 2026, there will only be a partial year impact. We would anticipate having higher revenues as a result of whether it be fixed wireless incremental MVNO revenues, wireless attachments, so higher revenues, higher EBITDA.
But those will be more than offset by the higher interest costs associated with the incremental debt that comes with the transaction. But all of this, we think, is manageable within the long-term guidance we provided. Upon the close of the EchoStar transaction, we're going to update our long-term guidance. And I would anticipate there relative to what we've previously said that there would be -- we expect incremental revenues and EBITDA within 24 months, we don't -- we expect the transaction overall to be accretive to EPS. In the short term, there will be dilution, but manageable dilution.
Okay. And just to touch on...
Yes, and free cash flow.
Accretion, EPS and free cash flow.
Yes, after 24 months. In the first 24 months, there will be some dilution to EPS, free cash flow, but there will be an accretion to revenues and EBITDA.
And I want to make sure I have the building blocks to that correct. So I guess, number one, you'd be contemplating more revenue from EchoStar, being the preferred provider on the MVNO side, right? That's number one.
That's number one.
Second, you are rolling FWA more aggressively, so higher FWA revenue, right? That's 2.
Faster decommissioning of the legacy copper plant, so that would be cost savings additive to EPS and free cash flow.
And then, I guess, also less densification would be would be part of that as well. Are those the 4 key pillars. .
Less densification, you missed a really important one.
I'm sorry, which one did I miss?
The wireless attach.
Oh, the wireless attach.
It comes with fixed wireless. And so being able to offer a fixed wireless product, nation-wide allows us to perform better, in particular, outside of our footprint, where we're not performing and where we're not performing at the same level that we are performing within our footprint. So this presents us a great opportunity, and I'm really excited about it.
And I guess the counterbalance, that's going to be the cost of the deal, right, $23 billion, whatever, 500 basis points cost to debt, whatever the number is, you're over $1 billion and just for funding the deal.
Yes, you are over $1 billion in interest costs. One factor as you think about your modeling to keep in mind is that as we are deploying the 600, some of the interest associated with that gets capitalized. So you're not going to see an impact on our reported free cash flow or EPS. With that said, it is -- it is included in our overall deleveraging targets because it's real cash. And we expect with -- even with our continuation of our capital return program to be able to deliver -- to get back to our target range within 36 months.
Okay. I'm going to follow up with Brett later on the capitalized interest for my modeling purposes, I don't go in the rabbit hole right now with that one. I want to come back to seasonality because there were a couple of things that you mentioned. You mentioned greater upgrade rates around April, I think, around some tariff fears, which you've heard pretty broadly, right, that makes sense, human behavior.
But then you also mentioned the expected uptick in competitive seasonal activity. as we head through September into the back half of the year. So should I expect that seasonality is going to be less because maybe some pull forward we saw? And then how does the seasonality and general effect your thinking around the churn rates that we saw in the beginning of the year continuing through or even being higher in the back half of the year?
Yes. Look, we all know there is always some level of uptick in activity in the latter part of the year in conjunction with the introduction of new devices. Ultimately, whether or not we see that, I think it will depend upon the device cycle and will be determined by the consumers. For planning purposes, we're assuming that we're going to see more of the same, but we don't know until we start to really get into it. We're not going to know for sure. That's our planning assumption. The outlook that we gave and reiterated is based upon that planning assumption. And -- but for now, it's too early to tell.
Okay. Just for your consensus gathering, I think we're forecasting 1% increase in iPhone sales year-over-year? So BofA is not expecting a big upgrade cycle this year?
Whatever happens, we will be ready.
Okay. Outstanding. You made several changes to guidance during 2Q around the mobility business. What's driving those guidance changes from mobility?
Just to level set, coming into the year, we expected wireless service revenue to grow between 2.5% and 3%. And we expected EBITDA to grow between 3% and 4%. And we had guided to the higher end of the 3% to 4% range. And in the second quarter, what we said is we expected because of the elevated growth that we saw in the first half and our planning assumptions around the fact that you -- we expected that activity to continue the back harder the year that we were probably closer to around 3% for EBITDA.
But because of our success in executing in the first half of the year, we expected our revenue, wireless service revenue growth to be more than 3%. So we feel bottom line is we are investing for growth, and we saw high-quality subscribers coming in the first half of the year. That requires some investments. But long term, the return is really attractive on that. And that was the foundation of what the tweaks we made to our guidance in the second quarter.
Another important factor to note is as we are spending to acquire new subscribers. Oftentimes, those subscribers come not only with mobility services, but with either fiber or fixed wireless most of the customer acquisition cost is coming from -- is being burdened in the mobility segment but the benefits are showing up in our Consumer Wireline segment. So all in all, I feel really good about how we're performing and the quality of the subscribers we are attracting.
Now it's a great segue into the next question. You touched on a bit high-quality subscribers with something that you just mentioned. And I think when I spoke with you all a few months ago, something that stuck with me was the thought of improving execution on migrating subscribers up during their life cycle. And actually we have Jen here today, thank you again for being here. Can you just talk a bit about that, about the potential to further improve the mobility business as you start to, I guess, execute better on migrating customers up during their lifetime, right, to become higher premium customers?
Yes.Look, it's a play we've been running for some time. Over the last several years, we've seen improvements in ARPU. Part of it were through pricing actions, but our pricing actions have there really been broad, very broad-based. They've been targeted in trying to encourage customers to change, to get off of some of our legacy plans. And oftentimes, when we do that, we give them a choice. We give them a choice, okay, if you want to pay the same amount, here's another plan for you. Alternatively, we can give you more value.
If you move up to a higher price plan. And so the overall mix of subscribers has been positively impacted the last several years by customers choosing the more valuable plans. And that's a phenomenon we have seen continue through the first half of the year. On top of that, look, periodically, we do make certain moves to drive more value to the base. As an example, we made a change in our auto bill pay discount, the amount of discount that you get for credit cards will be less than what you get for direct pulling from -- directly from your bank account.
So all those things are different ways to extract and manage the value of the base and we feel really good about our ability to do that, but we always do it with a goal of trying to make sure that we are conveying value to the consumer.
It seems like a very natural playbook.
Indeed -- the team does a great job in really making sure that we do all this. And at the same time, what's really impressive is we're able to do this and continue to keep churn relatively low. If you look -- we've led the industry in churn 16 of the last 18 quarters. So we feel that the value equation is always there whenever we make a pricing action -- and oftentimes, consumers are selecting higher value plans because of the value we're conveying to them.
-- and I can't believe I'm just getting to fiber now because a big part of your story now going on, well, quite a long time, but you did increase your fiber passing target to, I think, 60 million plus or more than $60 million, I forget the most recent comments around that more than 60 million. Brent is shaking his head.
Yes. More than 60 million.
Yes. I think John went on TV a while ago and said more than 60 million, so I'm safe with there. As you expand your fiber footprint, does it change your return profile, right? Because obviously, you're hitting different homes, different types of consumers. And then what levers do you have to pull as a CFO to ensure that you meet the expected or the mandatory rate of return?
We couldn't be more pleased with how we're executing on fiber. When we first started to look at the opportunity, we understood that it cost a lot to deploy fiber. And it does, but it's an investment that produces returns for decades to come. As we've expanded our base, what is really impressive is the team has gotten much more efficient. You start with the fact that our -- the fiber technology that we are using is connectorized. So what do I mean by that? It's very modular. So not as much of labor to put -- to install the fiber.
Labor is our most expensive cost in deploying fiber. So the ability to make the installation is much more modular and making sure we're getting it right the first time. It's been a real efficiency gain as our scale -- as we've scaled the fiber network.
Two, no secret, we are the largest and fastest-growing fiber networks as a result. We get really great prices. And the combination of the efficiencies that we've gained through the installation and our supply contracts has kept our returns pretty attractive. I look at our total cost to build, it's gone up since 2023, less than 2%. And we would expect that we can continue to manage that to reasonably low levels.
The other thing that whenever we are executing on our fiber build, One of the benefits that we know is there is the ability to pair it with wireless. Where we -- within our fiber footprint, our wireless share is 500 basis points higher. And so it's another return factor for our fiber installations. When we first started to greenlight the cases for fiber installation, we never considered wireless to be a part of it.
In fact, today, when the team does there execution in figuring out what can we return on it. Wireless is just an added component. It's not the core of the case. And given the uplift in wireless, these cases are not even -- they are -- the returns are really attractive and it's not even a close call. Look, over time, does it continue to get a little more expensive to build? Yeah. But the cases are so accretive that I don't expect at any point in the foreseeable future for me to say, no, we're not going to build any more because we're not getting the return on it.
And just quickly on the cost to build comment that you made, I think you said 2%, 3% over the last several years. You see the increase in aggregate, right? That's having annualized, that's total cost increase. So what have you done to keep that cost down. I presume it's probably mostly on the labor and the efficiency side because you're going to do so much about the raw materials and components that you're including? And then why do you think that's going to go up? Is that simply just the math around less population density in areas or are there other expectation from...
There is normal annual labor cost increases. But we are, as I said, like the team is able to execute on that more efficiently because of our technology. And we're able to get really good unit pricing on our materials as well. I wouldn't underestimate the benefit of that because of our scale. And our suppliers will make sure that we are getting the best possible deal. So all those things together is really what drives the overall cost equation, but we feel really good about being able to continue to manage that well.
Okay. FWA. We talked about it a little bit earlier when we talked about EchoStar. But has your strategic focus or view of FWA changed recently, especially after the EchoStar announcement, obviously, more focus there? And then how should we think about that strategy or trend versus other recent fiber investments that you've made?
Yes. You take a step back, fixed wireless. One of the things that has happened over the course of this year is we have opened up many more locations. Why is that happening? As we are modernizing our network and deploying mid-band spectrum, our ability to serve customers with fixed wireless has grown. And that's a big part of what you have seen in terms of the acceleration in growth in the last couple of quarters.
Now with the addition of the spectrum from EchoStar and our continuation of our modernization effort, we anticipate being able to further increase the locations served by fixed wireless. And importantly, we're going to -- because we have more locations that are available currently, we're going to put some real marketing muscle behind it. heretofore, we haven't really put a messaging message around fixed wireless.
It's in-store promotion pretty much today. You have actually been reaching out to consumers in their homes.
That's right. And so that's why I think the opportunity is really exciting for us. The ability to serve more locations coupled with a really strong marketing message and being able to seize an opportunity in areas where we -- outside of our footprint where we've historically been underpenetrated relative to our own footprint. So I think there's a lot of goodness ahead for us in that regard.
And it also appears opportunistic to lean in a little bit more today given where cable is on their heels, correct? Opportunity to take more share in the broadband market near term?
Look, we will take share from where ever it may come, whether it be cable or some of our competitors, we think we have an opportunity to. When you look at some of our major telco competitors, they have considerably more fixed wireless customers. There is no industrial reason why we shouldn't have more over time now that we are continue to expand the locations served.
And I don't want to skip over this one here really quickly. The mid-band spectrum from EchoStar, just to reiterate, once you get FCC approval, you can employ that immediately. You don't have to wait until a deal close, correct?
That is correct. As part of the deal with EchoStar we entered into a leasing agreement whereby we can least spec the mid-band spectrum before close. And would that -- but we need the regulators to approve that aspect of the deal. And once it happens, we can start to deploy that. And the way to think about the mid-band deployment is it's more akin to a software upgrade. We don't have to send people out to touch towers to deploy this.
Any anticipated considering or pushback from the regulators in the deal?
Look, I'm not going to speculate on that. They will go through their normal diligence and let usknow whether they have any concern I'd point out, we already are deploying 3.45 within our network. So you would anticipate that from an ideology perspective, there shouldn't be any concern, but time will tell.
Okay. Last question for you, Pascal. Purely in your CFO hat. The kind of the future state looking out, we've pulled forward some capital spending now post bonus depreciation reinstatement, you kind of increased the envelope. So future state, are we just a less capital-intensive company with better free cash flow growth better operating leverage? What does that future state look like?
Yes. One of the things that's really exciting about where we are today and the plans that we have in place is, you think about AT&T towards the end of this decade. AT&T will be largely out of its copper footprint, which comes with a $6 billion cost base. we will have completed our wireless modernization.
So we are going through a process right now that we expect largely to last the next couple of through 2027, where we are touching every single tower and changing radio access network networks to more modern open architecture, that ends 2027. So we will have the most modern wireless network with open architecture, we will be through our fiber build phase over 60 million consumer and business locations passed.
And you think about the margin profile of that business -- and I think the -- it's a really exciting time to be an AT&T shareholder because there's -- this is going to be a business that is going to have the scaled wireless and fiber network. No one else is going to have that level of scale across both products. and the very best technology. So the margin profile on that will be incredibly attractive.
Perfect timing. Pascal. Thank you again so much for doing this.
Thank you.
Thank you all for coming.
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AT&T — Bank of America 2025 Media
AT&T — Bank of America 2025 Media
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: AT&T kauft EchoStar‑Spektrum (600 MHz + Mid‑Band) als opportunistische Ergänzung zum Netz: beschleunigte Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), schnellere Kupfer‑Dekommisionierung und zusätzliche MVNO‑Umsätze mit DISH. Transaktion soll kurzfristig Umsatz/EBITDA heben, führt zu temporärer EPS/FCF‑Dillution, wird nach ~24 Monaten jedoch akzretiv.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Spektrum: Mid‑Band ergänzt bestehende Holdings in >400 Märkten; Low‑Band unerwartet verfügbar — beides erhöht Reichweite ohne umfangreiche Densifizierung.
- Produktmix: Erlaubt breitere FWA‑Rollouts und konvergente Bundles (wireless + broadband), wodurch Attach‑Raten und ARPU in Ausbaugebieten steigen können.
- Kapitalallokation: Management hält Capex‑Rahmen von $23–24 Mrd./Jahr ein, erwartet Finanzierungskosten (> $1 Mrd. Zins) aber Kapitalisierung eines Teils der Zinskosten während Deployment.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Guidance: Keine Änderung der 2025‑Guidance; Closing wird für Mitte 2026 erwartet, daher nur Teiljahreseffekt 2026.
- Wirkung: Erhöhte Umsätze und EBITDA in den 24 Monaten nach Close, jedoch kurzfristig Zins‑ und Dilutionseffekte; Netto‑EPS/FCF‑Akzretion erwartbar nach ~24 Monaten.
- Deployment: Mid‑Band kann vor Close per Leasing genutzt werden, sobald Regulierer zustimmen; Management nennt keine konkrete Bruttodeploy‑Zahl.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Deploy‑Kosten: Analysten drängten auf konkrete Bruttokosten zur Aktivierung der 600 MHz; das Management verweigerte detaillierte Zahlen, betonte aber, dass alles in den $23–24 Mrd. Capex‑Rahmen passt.
- Wettbewerb & Churn: Nachfrage nach Einschätzung zu saisonaler Promo‑Aktivität, iPhone‑Upgrade‑Zyklus und Einflüssen wie Immigration/tarifbedingten Pull‑forwards; Management sieht bisher erwartetes Verhalten, kein Hinweis auf strukturelle Verschlechterung.
- Regulatorik & Alternativen: Fragen zu möglichem Spectrum‑Swap sowie regulatorischem Gegenwind; Desroches blieb offen, nannte normale Prüfprozesse und verweigerte Spekulation über Widerstand.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Transaktion stärkt AT&Ts strategische Position bei FWA und kombiniert mit weiterem Fiber‑Ausbau das breiteste Angebot am Markt; potenziell deutlicher Mehrwert für Umsatz‑ und EBITDA‑Wachstum. Kurzfristig ist mit >$1 Mrd. Zinskosten und EPS/FCF‑Dillution zu rechnen; wichtigster Risikofaktor bleibt regulatorische Zustimmung sowie die Umsetzung der Monetarisierung von FWA und schnellere Kupfer‑Dekommisionierung.
AT&T — AT&T Inc., EchoStar Corporation - M&A Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to our host, Brett Feldman, Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning and welcome to our call to discuss our transaction with EchoStar. I'm Brett Feldman, Head of Investor Relations for AT&T. Joining me on the call today are John Stankey, our Chairman and CEO, and Pascal Desroches, our CFO.
Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our safe harbor statement. It says that some of our comments today may be forward-looking. As such, they are subject to risks and uncertainties described in AT&T's SEC filings. Results may differ materially. Additional information is available on our Investor Relations website. And with that, I will turn the call over to John Stankey. Go ahead, John.
Thanks, Brett. I appreciate you all joining us today on short notice, and I apologize if we're interrupting anyone's summer vacation plans. But we felt it was an important step to get you all together to provide some additional context about our transaction with EchoStar and answer as many questions as we can. I'll start by saying that we're very excited about our plans to acquire a substantial amount of mid- and low band spectrum from EchoStar while also supporting their transition to a hybrid mobile network operator.
Today's announcement aligns perfectly with the long-term strategy and goals we outlined for you at our Analysts and Investor Day last December. Like our agreement to acquire fiber assets from Lumen, this is an opportunistic and pre-emptive asset acquisition that will drive attractive and sustainable shareholder returns. With this transaction, we position AT&T to fully control and run our set of plays into the next decade.
This move solidifies AT&T as the leader in advanced high-performance connectivity across 5G and fiber and provides us with a collection of scaled assets that uniquely allows us to play offense nationwide. We'll be in a position to broaden and accelerate our converged customer strategy in short order with negligible capital deployment. And we'll work with the FCC to ensure that this spectrum is deployed on a timeline that serves the public interest.
This transaction is good for our customers and will benefit Americans across the country, putting fallow and undeveloped spectrum into service quickly, improving network performance, and cost effectively adding capacity at lower marginal costs than planned network densification. The most important aspect of this transaction is it will offer consumers and businesses more choice when selecting internet and wireless services the way they prefer, together.
This includes areas where we intend to offer AT&T Fiber in the future. By expanding and deepening our spectrum portfolio in these areas, we can quickly grow our base of Internet Air customers in the near-term and migrate them to fiber over time. The addition of these licenses also enhances our opportunity to transition customers from legacy copper-based phone and internet services to next generation connectivity such as Internet Air and AT&T Phone-Advanced in areas that will not reach with fiber.
When you combine these wireless enhancements with our fiber network, which is the largest and fastest growing in the US, we're even better positioned to meet the critical connectivity needs for consumers, businesses, and first responders today and well into the future. Additionally, we'll have a network that's better equipped to support use cases driven by emerging technologies. This next generation of connectivity will require networks with even greater capacity as data demand grows.
We expect to be at the forefront of enabling emerging AI and IOT use cases, such as AI native devices, autonomous vehicles, and advanced robotics. A key reason we're comfortable committing this capital is because of smart policy introduced by the current administration and FCC Chairman Brendan Carr that's enabling our industry to advance the nation's high-speed connectivity infrastructure and restore America's global lead in wireless technology.
This includes thoughtful spectrum policy, beneficial pro-investment provisions, and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and policies that help make it easier to transition outdated legacy wireline infrastructure to future-oriented 21st century connectivity that people want. I've said this before, but I believe public policy around connectivity is about as good as I can remember in terms of aligning incentives to invest with outcomes that are good for consumers. These actions will ultimately help provide more Americans with better, more reliable and more available advanced connectivity.
This transaction amplifies my confidence in the future of AT&T and my willingness to invest to capitalize on that opportunity. The compounding benefits of the strategic actions we've taken over the past five years are only beginning to play out. We have a unique and growing set of connectivity assets that will improve the high quality services we already provide, allow us to innovate for future use cases, and that will be very difficult for others to replicate. With that, I'll turn it over to Pascal. Pascal?
Thanks, John. I just want to add a few points and then I'll turn the call back to Brett so we can take your questions. As John outlined, the key message to our shareholders is that we expect this transaction to drive an attractive return through the combination of revenue growth and efficiencies. Specifically, we expect it will drive incremental service revenue and EBITDA within the first 24 months following deal close, with accretion to adjusted EPS and free cash flow expected in year 3, when the anticipated growth in EBITDA will more than offset the incremental interest expense and capital investments that we will incur as a result of the transaction.
A key reason why we are able to pursue this opportunity is because of the actions we have taken to strengthen our balance sheet over the past several years. We've previously shared with you that we felt the 2.5x net debt to adjusted EBITDA range was the right target because of the flexibility it provides. This flexibility allows us to make the necessary investments in the business to drive growth and at the same time deliver attractive returns to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.
Additionally, the 2.5x net debt to adjusted EBITDA range allows us to take advantage of strategic opportunities which deliver attractive returns to our shareholders, such as this transaction. While the acquisition of the spectrum licenses will increase our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio to the 3x range following the close, we are confident in our ability to return to our leverage target in the 2.5x range within approximately [Technical Difficulty].
Given the strength of our 5G and fiber networks and the expected growth in revenues and profits from this transaction, we are confident we can accomplish this while continuing to return capital to shareholders. This is why we are reiterating our capital return plans, which include $20 billion of capacity for share repurchases during 2025 through 2027. We also expect to maintain our capital return program during 2028 and 2029 at comparable levels while reducing our net leverage ratio.
More than halfway through the year, we continue to execute well, and we are reiterating all of our full year 2025 financial guidance. As detailed in our press release, we are also reiterating key elements of the long-term financial outlook we provided with our second quarter 2025 earnings report. Upon the close of our pending transactions with EchoStar, Lumen, and UScellular, we plan on updating our long-term financial outlook. In closing, we are excited about what this transaction with EchoStar means for our company, our customers, and our future. That does it for our remarks. Back to you, Brett.
All right. Well, thank you, Pascal. Operator, we are ready to take our first question.
[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Benjamin Swinburne from Morgan Stanley.
2. Question Answer
I guess two questions. One, I'd love to hear you guys talk a little more about the incremental revenue, service revenue, and EBITDA you think you can generate as a result of closing this transaction. It sounds like fixed wireless might be something that you're incrementally more enthused about, with this acquisition coming on. And kind of related. Just could you talk about how quickly the team can light the spectrum up on the network once the deal closes? Thanks so much.
Sure. Good morning, Ben. So I would tell you whether or not we're enthused is not really isn't how I characterize it. We view fixed wireless as a continued great opportunity for us for the right customer segments. As I said previously, there's a lot of businesses out there where it's a great fit, especially for a converged offer. It's effectively a mobile business. It needs some kind of a scaled fixed solution and given the usage characteristics, this is really, really good. There's also segments in the consumer space that make a lot of sense.
And this opens up just a bigger footprint in places where we maybe had to be a little bit more cautious. The other part that really drives some opportunity in the near-term is, you know we've given you specific guidance of what we intend to do over our fiber footprint, but that runs over a number of years. And so we realized we've got an opportunity to precede a lot of those areas and get very aggressive on converged connectivity and then catch the usage dynamic out for years in an accretive way, and we think we want to take advantage of that where we can to make sure we maintain and also grow relationships with customers that we have.
Third, we expect to do better on catching legacy customers in places where we're never going to be building any of our fiber, and we know there are a fair number of places to do that, and we think we've got a better product than what we've seen, in places where we've gone and been more aggressive about transitioning customers off legacy services on the fixed wireless solutions that we have very satisfied customers. The product performs very well. We can do at the right place to get a good, converged offer in place for them.
So we think that's another place that we actually have incremental opportunities to go and push further. Those are the easy ones for us to kind of look at on current data and understand what we think we can ultimately pick up incrementally. The other ones that ultimately over time, I think will play out is, if we engineer this network properly given the asset base we have, we think we're going to have a very compelling offer that plays well into the AI space for, as I said in my remarks, variety of connected devices as well as other things that are driven off the handset that, ultimately, historically, we've been able to find ways to monetize that better performing capability.
Then in terms of where we think we can go, the mid-band spectrum is obviously virtually no list at all for us. The vast majority of our infrastructure that's out there will be prepared to receive it. So you get into largely software configuration issues to deploy it. I believe EchoStar disclosed in their filing this morning that there is an option for us to lease that during the pendency of the transaction, so I'm not going to break any news on that. It obviously requires approval from authorities that we can execute that lease.
But if in fact that approval was granted, we could turn that up even before the transaction was closed. At a minimum, once the transaction is closed, we can be very quick in getting the mid-band spectrum in place. And my sense is in talking with regulators, they're interested in seeing fallow spectrum move into service as quickly as possible, so I think we're probably aligned on our objectives and maybe what the regulatory objectives are because that's a good thing for consumers and good things for competitiveness of the nation's infrastructure.
The low-band spectrum obviously is something that requires more work. We don't currently manifest 600 in our network. But we have a plan, if we like to go down that path that we can consolidate radios on other low band spectrum that we have, and we're getting to a point in our infrastructure right now where some of that infrastructure that we have out there is end-of-service life.
It's been up there for a while and as part of our normal capital refresh cycles, we know we have to replace radios and if we can do that and ultimately pick up this additional band and we have, as we said, or I said in the remarks, a reasonable time frame to do that and do it in the context of what's in the public interest, and we'll be able to be pretty efficient about how we go about doing that and the incremental capital won't be that significant, but it will take a little bit of time to get that done and work through the network.
We'll take the next question, operator.
The next question comes from John Hodulik from UBS.
Congrats on the transaction. John, getting back to your comments on the 600. I was a little surprised seeing that in the list there because as you said, you don't have a presence in the 600 megahertz band. I mean just any thoughts on what that could do to your network or how you expect that, access to that spectrum to change, whether it's capacity or quality levels. And then there's other bands that EchoStar has that, like, the 700 that would have fit sort of better with what you guys already have.
So were there other options within the portfolio that EchoStar has that you looked at, that you decided not to pursue because the 600 just sort of just stands out as a little bit different like as you said, it's sort of dominated by T-Mobile, but so any thoughts there. And then, lastly, just anything additionally about the cost, especially again the 600. I think, it's going to require -- you sort of referred to the network modernization plan with all the new Ericsson gear. Are there economies that you can point to base on where you are in that deployment that can help you, that can aid you in rolling out this new 600? Thanks.
I don't really want to set a new precedent of three questions per slot, John, but I'm going to go ahead and indulge you this time. So, look, we are in a really great position on low-band spectrum in our business today and we have a great relationship with the FirstNet Authority that has given us something that I think we've managed to turn into a very unique set of capabilities. As you know, we run the largest network in the United States.
Part of that is by virtue of the fact that we have a great coverage layer, given our low-band assets and I can tell you historically, I have never regretted owning low-band spectrum over the course of my career, and part of why I have the confidence to go and do this transaction in a way that worked for the counter party is because I don't think I'll regret owning low-band spectrum over time if that ultimately proves to be the right place for us to go.
And I feel really good we can drive great value out of it, and I do believe in my view, what will become important over the long haul is engineered uplink, and low-band spectrum and reach for those is going to be really, really important. We start with a strong position. This can only make it stronger. And as you have those workloads that require upstream bandwidth that reach deeper into buildings and further out in the network, this only gives us more engineering flexibility to move through it. And that's how I think about it if we ultimately decide that's the highest and best use for how we deploy.
But we have a lot of flexibility given the density of our network and our existing low-band holdings to do this the right way moving forward, and I feel really comfortable about that. And when I said in my comments that this transaction allows me to set the rules and make the decisions that AT&T wants to make for itself. This is part of that dynamic. You should assume we've looked at everything that EchoStar has to offer. They're a counterparty. They have their needs and wants. We're a counterparty. We have our needs and wants. I try to be disciplined around what we do.
To your point, everything comes with a cost. And we want to make sure we have economic returns on the cost, and you should conclude that based on the other assets they have and what they want and what the value of them is and what we think the value is returned to our network in terms of deployment costs and what kind of payloads we can carry that these were the right assets for us at this time. Doesn't mean something doesn't change down the road.
As circumstances change, but based on where the counterparty is, this is what could get done, and I'm really proud about what got done and it wasn't easy to get here, and I'm really happy that we're first out of the chute on this and kind of setting the terms in a way that we think is really strong and capable for AT&T moving forward, and that was really important to me and is part of the justification for paying the price that we have. We're in control. As I said, we can move spectrum into the network very quickly.
And the question that I answered for Ben, that time to revenue when you put it up, since there's no capital to deploy is different than a typical spectrum deployment, when a new air interface is being put out. So we get the spectrum, we can start generating revenues immediately. We don't need to wait for devices to be seated. We don't have to hang radios on towers. We don't have to deploy capital to do that.
And that's part of the economic equation here. And then finally on your question about the modernization. I don't really expect that our current modernization that we're doing for Open RAN is going to necessarily directly correlate to the 600 deployment. I expect by the time that we have equipment that allows us to do those types of things, we will be mostly through that effort.
However, we will have opened up interfaces in the network by that point in time, and it certainly provides us some optionality on how we source radios and what we think about moving forward as we buy new equipment. But I don't know that the touches and the physical work that we're doing as part of that modernization is necessarily going to lower the labor cost deployment of what we ultimately do to put 600 in the network.
Thanks, operator we'll take the next question.
The next question comes from Michael Rollins with Citi.
Congratulations on the transaction. I'm so curious how this transaction may influence your wholesale strategy going forward, whether it's the relationship you've announced now with EchoStar, as well as, maybe looking at new wholesale partners with the additional capacity you have that may even include the cable and VNOs.
And then just, secondarily to this, a few years ago, I believe you announced a transaction with EchoStar or DISH at the time, for at least $5 billion of wholesale revenue. Is that agreement still in place post this transaction, and maybe you can give us an update on how that portion of that business has been proceeding.
Morning, Michael. So I don't think it really changes my point of view on wholesale as I've shared previously, I think any network operator historically always wants a mix of traffic on their network and typically, in high fixed cost businesses like ours, when you have that mix, that's the optimal profitability equation. So having a percentage of traffic on our network that's wholesale in nature I think is important to us going forward and we're excited about the relationship with DISH moving forward, supporting their Boost brand.
And one of the things that I traditionally look at is I really like wholesale business when it extends us to some place where we're not or where we're not particularly effective. And Boost is a good example. I think they do a much better job of getting the segments of the economy that we're not as good at distributing into and they're creative in many ways because customers that they bring on that we ultimately receive wholesale revenues for, we may have never seen at retail, and that's a win-win if you can get that kind of a mix.
And I'm interested in any opportunity like that moving forward. And as you know, we have a meaningful and sizable wholesale business with other MVNOs and certainly having more capacity in places allows us to be more competitive for some of that business and maybe increase on the margin what we're able to do in places, especially for those that segment and divide their wholesale business among more than one carrier. So I think it's good for the business.
I don't know that it's going to be a step function shift, and to answer your question, when I think about cable under that construct, I don't really think about cable necessarily being as an accretive partner per se. I suppose there are places where that could occur, but I'm doing pretty well right now and picking up customers and share from cable, and I'm doing it at retail, and I'd like to continue doing that at retail because that's probably the best equation for me.
And, maybe at some point in time, if in the future, we weren't as effective as we're being right now in running that play and winning converge customers and having delighted individuals that buy both products from us, I view it differently. But right now, I think I feel like I'm in a pretty good place around that and then pursuing maybe a little bit different direction.
And what you should assume is this relationship that we have with Echo and that we announced is a subsumption of our existing agreement with them for wholesale, that this will be the new construct, assuming we can get the approvals and everything done moving forward that this is how they will operate and what they will do, and that will continue to grow in revenues just like it has been growing and maybe even grow faster because I think it's a better arrangement for them. And ultimately, if they're successful in the market, I expect to have the fruits of that labor ultimately accruing to the wholesale volumes and traffic that we pick up from them.
Thanks, Mike. Operator, we'll go to the next question.
The next question comes from Michael Funk with Bank of America.
So John, first for you. You mentioned earlier the new spectrum allows you to lean in a bit more fixed wireless maybe than you have in the past, so can you expand on that, how it might change your marketing strategy, whether pricing, packaging, otherwise, and how you intend to lean in. And then Pascal, I apologize you cut out a bit when mentioning returning to the 2.5x leverage target, the time frame if you can just repeat what you said about timing for returning to the target.
Sure. Good morning, Mike. I don't know that I can add a whole lot to you. I wouldn't -- I don't, by matter of course, like to publicly pre-disclose pricing and market strategy for a variety of reasons, but what I would tell you is, we're really pleased with what we've been able to do over the last several quarters. You've been seeing the results. We've obviously shared them with you. You see the momentum growing.
We think that we have really good offers in the market that are gaining traction. We think those offers and the feedback we get from our distribution channels are well received. I think what we can do to improve is a couple of things. One, as I said earlier, expanding the footprint where those offers are available, and this spectrum allows us to do that.
So there will be fewer areas that we have restricted because of either network performance or capacity. Two, we think we can do a little bit better in using some alternate distribution channels for our fixed wireless product, especially in the business market. We've largely have been owned and operated and a lot of the volume we've driven right now, and we see no reason that we can't actually get a little bit better in that space.
And the product hunts really well and is very well suited to it in many ways, and I think we can go a little bit further there that then matches into our expanded footprint. But in terms of where we are on the actual offers in the market, we seem to be doing quite well and have hit a spot that we're very comfortable with. It's creative in the construct that we have right now. And as I said earlier, maybe we get a little bit more aggressive in some preceding areas as we start to think about what's going on with fiber, time to revenue.
As you know, on a fiber, business case can be a really big driver of improving returns and we're just starting to get our muscles around how to do that a little bit, and I expect with the Lumen assets, that's going to be a key driver for us as to how we get in place presence and brand recognition in markets where we're going to be with fiber and then coming in behind and ultimately clean those up and watch ourselves, maybe be a little bit more effective at growing revenues faster at the front end.
Pascal, do you want to take the question on the leverage for the 2.5x.
Yeah. Mike, just to level step, we expect the transaction to close somewhere around the middle of 2026, and we expect it will take us about 36 months or within 36 months, we expect to get back to the 2.5x range and that will be through a combination of accelerated EBITDA growth plus deleverage debt reduction as a result of the strong free cash flows beginning in 2028 and beyond.
Thanks, Mike. We'll go to the next question, operator.
The next question comes from Peter Supino with Wolfe Research.
A question about the $23 billion price tag of this deal. I wanted to look at the spectrum values that -- the prices DISH paid for this spectrum historically. By our look, it seems you're paying about a $7 billion premium to those prices for these assets, and that's assigning no value to the changes in the Boost relationships. So we wondered if you'd talk a bit about how you saw the value here. And as a parallel question, if you could discuss whether the changes in the Boost relationship create any additional value here. Thanks.
Hi Peter. Yes, the short answer is that we ultimately expect there'll be incremental value that's generated from the Boost relationship moving forward, and that's part of the contribution as to why we think this has been a good move for us. It's a full package and we view this as a full package, and they all work together. Some of the accelerated revenues we talked about, the ease to deployment on capital, those things all factor in as to your willingness to pay.
I'm well aware that what we're paying is more than what DISH paid for spectrum at auction, but that's not a new and startling fact. There're speculators who go in and buy spectrum all the time and hold it for a number of years and then ultimately come back in and sell it for more than what they bought it for, and that's the nature of auctions and what occurs.
But I will tell you that the price we're paying, if you go back and look at precedented transactions for the types of spectrum that we're picking up, these are well within the range of what we think have been precedent-driven spectrum transactions and ultimately got ourselves comfortable that within that context that it was a win-win construct for both what DISH needed and EchoStar needed to move forward for their business, and they had certain requirements to clear to get this done.
We are a willing player to meet those requirements to enable them to move forward. As I just said, part of that equation is getting the value of a wholesale relationship as they move forward. And ultimately, when we think about the speed to our market effectiveness, we believe those things ultimately validate the price that we paid for it.
So I'm comfortable with where we're at, and I'm fully aware that our execution and what we bring forward, we need to support that moving forward. But as I said before, there's not a lot of times in my career where I've regretted, for want of, putting a few billion dollars in a particular time frame, going and buying spectrum that enabled your business to be better. And I would also tell you that I've used spectrum as a long-term dynamic of dollar cost averaging.
And there are moments in times where sometimes you get a transaction that maybe goes a little below market. Sometimes you get one that's at market, sometimes a little above market. The question is over time, are you paying for that asset similar to what others in the industry are paying and not disadvantaging yourself? And I think historically, as I look back at our portfolio, I think we've navigated this and managed it pretty well.
All right. We'll take next question, operator.
The next question comes from Jim Schneider with Goldman Sachs.
Just two quick ones if I could. One is, as you think about the allocation of the spectrum to both your future core mobile growth as well as fixed wireless growth, can you give us any kind of ballpark estimate of how many fixed wireless subscribers you hope to eventually support with this spectrum on the margin? And then maybe secondly, relative to the spectrum deployment, at what point in time would you expect the spectrum to be fully deployed on your network?
Good morning, Jim. No, I can't. We're not going to provide forward guidance on kind of where we are on fixed wireless assets sub-counts, and I think that's been consistent with where we've been. Obviously, as we move through this, we're giving you guidance and reaffirm what we're doing for the balance of this year. There'll come a time when we're more confident in the approval process and we're getting near that period where it makes sense to come back in and recalibrate forward guidance.
And we'll do that as that moment approaches and we kind of know exactly what's going to happen and what time frame. And obviously, while I may not give you a sub-count, we certainly will give you some guidance on how we think we're going to impact things like service revenue and our EBITDA growth associated with that. So as we move down the path here, you can be comfortable, we'll give you a reasonable amount of transparency on that.
Your second question on deployment. That's probably going to hinge right now on ultimately where we go. As I told you earlier, mid-band will be very, very quick. We think that's one of the attractive parts of this. We do expect it's going to take a number of years to get the 600 deployed as we go down that path. We expect -- we've laid out in our agreement that we know that's going to be the case. We, of course, need to get the FCC support in doing that.
That's just part of the deal, given the licenses already have deployment requirements on them, I can't guarantee anything. But I feel like, given that it's the desire of the SEC to get spectrum broadly into service and move it forward on sustainable constructs and given what they've been concerned about in their own letter writing back to EchoStar, they should be open to something along the lines of a very deliberate path to invest, even if it takes several years to get it done, but we'll figure that out through the approval process and again as that gets settled in, we'll give you specifics around it.
Thanks, Jim. Operator, we're going to take our last question.
The last question today comes from Sebastiano Petti from JPMorgan.
Congratulations on the deal. John, I guess just maybe kind of stepping back for a moment. If you look at Gail Slater's approval of USM T-Mobile deal, she did make comments about the aggregation of spectrum amongst the big three. And so as you look across the landscape and kind of getting across the approval process, obviously very unknown, what may occur there.
But do you see any perhaps, behavioral remedies or anything from like an MVNO perspective that will -- that the DOJ perhaps may kind of opine on your MVNO practices or broader practices across the ecosystem as it pertains to wholesalers as EchoStar kind of moves further away from being a facilities-based provider and more towards a wholesaler. Just kind of overall views on, maybe, getting over the finish line there. Thank you.
Well, first, I don't want to speak for Gail, and I don't want to also speak for the consumer of the MVNO construct, but this was a negotiated construct that has different characteristics than a straightforward MVNO. I believe it is EchoStar's intent to continue to operate and manage their own core. And I believe we've given them very attractive economics around this that makes sense for both parties.
It's a package, as I said, this is a package of an economic value spectrum that's changing hands and a wholesale agreement. So I don't think it would be wise for a regulator to come in and try to cherry pick certain things because it will fundamentally change the overall construct of the deal and certainly we're not necessarily willing to sign off on the deal if that were to occur or somebody were to come in and suggest that they want to stipulate what our commercial arrangements should be.
I frankly don't think that's necessary because there is a robust wholesale market and that's out there today and people avail themselves of it. We've just recently seen evidence of that where the cable industry has had a long-standing relationship with one provider, chose to build a second relationship with another provider that suited other needs for them. And I think the market functions incredibly well.
I believe, from a regulatory perspective, Sebastiano, one of the reasons I'm comfortable moving forward on this is when I look at all the data in the industry, when I look at what's actually happening, not theoretical models, when I look at flow share in a given quarter, when I see what's happening in pricing, when I see the inter-mobile competition dynamics of how customers are choosing in the market, there are demonstrative and meaningful data points that show that these markets are functioning in an incredibly competitive manner.
And I would also say that those numbers, and when you look at it, doesn't necessarily represent that the key driver of that dynamic is necessarily, with all due respect, what we're seeing DISH or EchoStar do in the market. And so, in my view, any rational regulator would look at it and say, this is a circumstance where the FCC has made a decision on these licenses where they're questioning whether or not they're going to do something from a regulatory perspective. It puts a lien on the business and its sustainability.
I'm only parroting what EchoStar has disclosed in their public filings. And so you've got to come up with a comparison that says, not a going concern or possibly doesn't have a way to operate their business and what's the next best outcome. And I think keeping them in business on a very attractive wholesale arrangement where they immediately approve their cost per gig and their economics as opposed to own and operating their own network, seems like a pretty good, better outcome as opposed to nothing being there at all.
And then ultimately, the dynamics of what's occurring in the market that support the fact that concentration really isn't an issue. And in fact, getting more capacity out into the market is ultimately a good thing for consumers over the long haul. So that's about how I think about it, but I don't want to pretend that the DOJ won't very carefully examine this and look at all the facts that I've already looked at and come to their conclusions on it. I just think my conclusion is a very compelling and we'll certainly advocate for that through the approval process to try to get this done in the right way.
Thanks for the question, Sebastiano. Operator, you can go ahead and close out the call.
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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AT&T — AT&T Inc., EchoStar Corporation - M&A Call
AT&T — AT&T Inc., EchoStar Corporation - M&A Call
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: AT&T kauft ein bedeutendes Portfolio an Mid‑ und Low‑Band‑Spektrum von EchoStar (Analystenschätzung zum Preis in der Diskussion: ca. $23 Mrd.). Ziel ist schnelle Ausweitung von Fixed Wireless und konvergenten Fiber‑/Mobilangeboten zur Umsatz‑ und EBITDA‑Steigerung; Mid‑Band soll rasch nutzbar sein, 600 MHz (Low‑Band) benötigt mehrere Jahre und regulatorische Abstimmung.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Ertragsprofil: Management erwartet inkrementelle Service‑Umsätze und EBITDA innerhalb der ersten 24 Monate nach Closing; gesteigerte Adjusted EPS und Free Cash Flow sollen ab Jahr 3 eintreten.
- Netz & Deployment: Mid‑Band lässt sich überwiegend per Software/Netzkonfiguration schnell integrieren; 600 MHz erfordert Hardware‑Refresh und mehr Zeit, bietet aber Reichweite‑ und Uplink‑Vorteile.
- Kapital & Hebel: Nettoverschuldung steigt nach Close in den ~3x‑Bereich; Rückkehr zum Ziel von ~2,5x binnen ~36 Monaten geplant. Rückkäufe: $20 Mrd. Kaufkapazität für 2025–2027, ähnliche Rückkäufe für 2028–2029 angekündigt.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Transaktionsdetails: Management nannte Option für ein Leasing der Lizenzen vor Closing (EchoStar‑Filing) und peilt einen Abschluss etwa Mitte 2026 an.
- Guidance‑Status: AT&T bestätigt die vollständige Jahresguidance 2025; langfristiger Ausblick wird nach dem Abschluss der noch ausstehenden Transaktionen (EchoStar, Lumen, UScellular) aktualisiert.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Deploy‑Timing: Frage nach Time‑to‑revenue — Antwort: Mid‑Band sehr schnell, Low‑Band (600 MHz) dauert Jahre wegen Netzmodernisierung und regulatorischer Auflagen.
- Monetarisierung: Schwerpunkt auf Fixed Wireless (konvergente Angebote) und Wholesale (Boost/DISH) als nahe‑/mittelfristige Umsatztreiber; Management erwartet sofortige Ertragsbeiträge ohne großen CapEx‑Aufwand für Mid‑Band.
- Regulatorik: Bedenken zu Konzentration/Verhalten wurden angesprochen; Management betont wettbewerbliche Dynamik im Markt und argumentiert, dass das Paket besser ist als Alternativen für EchoStar/DISH.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Transaktion stärkt AT&Ts Spektrum‑Position und beschleunigt Fixed‑Wireless‑/Konvergenzwachstum mit begrenztem kurzfristigem CapEx für Mid‑Band; sie verursacht jedoch eine temporäre Erhöhung der Verschuldung und ist approval‑abhängig. Für Aktionäre: positives strategisches Upside unter Ausführungs‑ und Regulierungsrisiken.
AT&T — KeyBanc Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forum
1. Question Answer
Welcome to day one of the KeyBanc Technology Leadership Forum. Thanks, everybody, for being here. My name is Brandon Nispel. I cover communication services for KeyBanc. This presentation is a 25-minute fireside chat. We have Jeremy Legg, CTO of AT&T. Jeremy, welcome.
Yes. Thanks for having me. It's a good place to have a conference.
Absolutely. So real quick ,safe harbor for AT&T. Before we begin, I need to call attention to safe harbor, which says some of the comments today may be forward-looking. There's risks and uncertainties. Results may differ materially. Additional information is on AT&T's website. So again, Jeremy, thank you.
Yes, well, I'm glad to be here.
Why don't we just get started? Help us understand your background role at AT&T and really your key priorities from a technology standpoint in '25.
Sure. I actually came over from the Time Warner merger --WarnerMedia merger, I was CTO over there. And when John Stankey moved over to AT&T, he brought me with him. And my responsibilities at AT&T are all of the technology there with the exception of the operations of building out the last mile. So I don't have the teams that are building the last mile. We do all the network architecture in my group for it, but we don't have the operations to climb up a tower or put the fiber in the ground. But all the other stuff is -- sits in my world.
Got it. How would you characterize sort of your top priorities for '25?
So convergence is obviously the thing you hear a lot about, and that's perceived, I think, as a marketing bundling opportunity, which it certainly is. But in my world, convergence is about how we actually get both sides of our scale businesses running over the same pipe, and how do we actually become the lowest cost transport provider on the Internet, and so what we're in the midst of doing right now is actually converging our wireline and wireless networks together so that as we think about how we amortize the cost of that, we're doing it over two businesses versus one and historically, those have been pretty separate networks, and increasingly, now we're actually unifying all of that.
Got it, and you joined AT&T, I think, about 5 years ago. How do you sort of help us understand your excitement and the opportunity that you have in front of you from a technology standpoint?
It's really an exciting time to be in telecommunications. I mean you think about the kinds of investments that are going into the ground, going up in the air and satellite. It's really one of those moments where all the technology is transforming.
So what we embarked on, this began probably about 4 years ago, was actually removing the proprietary hardware out of our core backbone that goes around the country. So our core ring of our network, and that's now software-defined. So that's x86 compute, Linux boxes and commodity chips.
What we're now doing is extending that out to our central offices, and that's a big deal, right? There's over 4,000 central offices across the country as well as MISOs ultimately when we start getting into the wireless side and that's now actually removing the proprietary hardware that sits in all of those central offices as well as all those legacy services and moving to Linux-based software compute inside of all of those central offices. That is a massive cost restructuring.
It's a complete rebuild of the wireline network in and of itself. And so our ability in the time frames that we've already articulated as part of Investor Day, we're in the midst now of completing that within those time frames, and we actually will be lighting up some of this the first part of next year.
Wow. So let's talk about some of your topics that you really discussed at the '24 Analyst Day. It was really about network simplification, application consolidation and really generative AI. We'll hit on all of those. But maybe start by wireline network. Give us a high-level overview of what's being done. I think you were touching on it there in terms of simplification of sort of the core essential offices.
Yes. I mean we're -- to give folks an idea of the size of this implementation, we're laying fiber roughly the equivalent from New York to L.A. every month, and that's last mile infrastructure as well as middle mile infrastructure. We've taken up, as we said in our earnings, last quarter from the tax cuts.
We're going to be increasing the number of homes passed that we're doing on wireline. So the endpoints that we're generating across the network, whether they be consumer endpoints or business endpoints is going to increase the amount of traffic that sits on that network.
In addition, it will be integrating in with the wireless network so that we're going to have essentially a complete rebuild from O-RAN at the RAN to Linux-based compute inside of our wireline network that really transforms our underlying cost structure associated with how we run those services. So it's kind of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, honestly, or at least once in a career opportunity to be able to rebuild networks like that.
You teased it a little bit, but talk about the approach towards software-defined networking and how you're pushing software-defined networking from sort of the core out to more of the edge facilities. Help us understand what that means architecturally.
So if you think about the way that these networks have been built, historically, if you wanted to put a new router in, you're going to send someone into a central office or into a physical facility and they're going to have to install that router.
What this converts into is the ability to actually download software. So you have software-based routing. You don't have to send human beings into those central offices in the same way that you did before, and you can manage software updates akin to what you see many device manufacturers doing.
We're actually pushing updates from the cloud down into the infrastructure that sits in the network. So that's what's really happening across our broader network, and that's a really, really big deal because when -- for those of you that have ever been in a central office, there is a lot of gear in there, and there's a lot of gear that dates back to all the legacy services that telcos have been providing for many, many decades as well as the new services.
So you're talking about taking physical infrastructure of many, many, many racks of gear and basically putting it in a couple of racks, and also within -- when you think about the number of central offices that you have to instrument with that gear, you don't have to put it in all of them.
So if you have 100 central offices, you may be able to only have the gear in 30 or 40 of them, and they just all talk to each other, but some central offices essentially just become pass-throughs. So the physical infrastructure that we have to pay for hardware to put in those central offices goes down dramatically. The labor goes down dramatically.
And then your ability from an operations standpoint to maintain that gear is driven by software. So CI/CD pipelines and things that you hear about from software companies, that's how we're building that, both for our mobility cores as well as for our wireline network.
So talk to us then what that means from a product standpoint, both from like a legacy product and maybe decommissioning some of those and also from a product introduction -- new product introduction standpoint.
Yes. So our goal is to have as few of these legacy services as possible, and so it's well documented that we're well down the path of getting through the regulatory environment to be able to decommission as many of those legacy services as we can and then offer cache products to them that sit on that new technology stack.
But what it means from a product perspective is that you're -- in the same way that you can go to a website or go to an app and instantiate a product from an Amazon or whatever it might be, it's the ability to now do that with a telco. So as you want to spin up a cybersecurity product to protect your network, if you're a company, you can actually go and provision that product through software and instantiate it inside of your network.
Those kinds of things you really can't do today. It's much harder to do that. It takes physical gear that you have to put into those places, and once we're at the end of this journey, you're going to be able to do those things.
So is that -- how do you think about partners then from a new product perspective and layering on top from an application standpoint onto the network?
Yes. So there's a host of things that are actually happening in the industry now through CAMARA and TM Forum and API layers that sit on top of these networks. In some cases, I think we want to open this up to the broader industry because back to my original point, how do you get more bits on our network, and that's a big piece of that and allowing companies to integrate in.
Another area of this, though, is similar to what you see through traditional software companies where you begin to monetize APIs. And you don't need to build a product, you're really providing a service that goes back, and that can be anything from location services to security services, quality of service so that people can see the performance of a bit inside of the network.
A great example of this is most third-party companies can't really see the traffic in the last mile and the quality of service associated with that traffic. Well, you can open that up through an API and allow people to see what's really happening with the bits in the last mile. That just becomes a service. It's not really a finished good product that you're going to put out into market. But we intend to do both.
So we want to both monetize APIs through services as well as provide new products. And there's some things that we've already done to start with that with Dynamic Defense, which is one of our security products as an example, where you can begin to filter the bad guys at the Internet peering points before they ever get down to the endpoints of the devices that consumers or businesses use.
Got it. Let's switch gears a little bit, go towards the wireless side of the network. Talk about network simplification there, too. What type of initiatives do you have going on, on the wireless side?
A lot. So our O-RAN initiative where we did put at the Nokia Ericsson components that we publicly disclosed. We're well down the path of putting the Ericsson gear into the O-RAN network as well as opening it up. We actually made one of our first phone calls off of that new infrastructure very recently. And then -- and when you go back further into the network into the mobility cores, we've actually built our mobility core cloud native in the public cloud.
So what that really means is that you're, again, being able to use software to build new products and services into the network itself and use public cloud infrastructure to be able to do that. So all of the tooling you see in an Azure as an example, or an AWS or in a Google, those kinds of services now become available to those mobility cores.
So we're well down the path of that stand-alone core. We've got millions of subscribers on it already, and we'll continue to ramp that up as well as finish out O-RAN. O-RAN will take the industry, right? That's not going to be just us. That's opening up of the wireless network in the same way that you think about opening up of the wireline network that I described before.
Wireless networks have traditionally been very closed and you can't just plug into a wireless network. O-RAN changes that equation and allows people through SDKs, RDKs and other software tools to be able to plug into the network and leverage those services.
Got it. I mean it was a big decision for AT&T to go down this O-RAN push. Talk to us about what got you comfortable sort of making these changes.
Well, it was moving -- it was a number of things. One was the economics of it, and it made sense for us to do. The second was that we thought the networks needed to be open that ultimately closed network ecosystems generally break down. And you were starting to see that with a lot of the infrastructure providers for these closed networks.
There was a lot of consolidation going on in that industry. And then the third point is that we got the culture and philosophy of people whose business models were really focused on closed ecosystems to realize that open ecosystems were ultimately going to be whether they wanted it to be there or not, was ultimately going to be what was going to happen. And once we got all of that stuff aligned, we really became comfortable in moving down this path. And we think it's -- we continue to believe it's the right path.
You -- a couple of years ago, you announced an agreement with Ericsson. Talk about how the partner ecosystem is sort of developing around sort of O-RAN for you specifically?
Yes. So it's -- we want the ability to have multiple radio and antenna providers for a single RAN. We want there to be the ability to have virtualized RAN or centralized RAN and have different sets of software that are running on those baseband boxes. That makes a lot of sense.
The long pole in the tent will be the API layers that sit on top of this infrastructure and how much adoption you really begin to see across the industry in leveraging those APIs. But the fundamentals of O-RAN, it makes a lot of sense to do it.
There's -- you'll see as you look and read about O-RAN or vRAN or C-RAN, they're all sort of close cousins and brothers and sisters is the same thing. The biggest issue is brownfield providers versus greenfield providers. If you're a brownfield provider, well, you already have a RAN at the end -- at the base of every tower. So how are you going to architect it so that you've got 100 RANs that are now coming back to a centralized point.
That's a lot of engineering, both physical engineering as well as software engineering, and so that takes more time than doing a greenfield implementation of that, and most scale providers are brownfield providers like ourselves.
Got it. I wanted to shift gears. I mean we talked a little bit about sort of network initiatives at chat, I want to talk a little bit more about more internal initiatives that you have from a technology standpoint. Maybe help us unpack what you're working on from an internal technology standpoint.
Yes. We've -- if you think of the tech stack in sort of simple terms, you have layer 1 and 2, which is what we've just been talking about, which is the physical network itself, the towers, the central offices, all that kind of stuff. And then as you move up, you get more and more software. The layer 1 and 2 is becoming more and more software, but you get more into pure software.
So you get into things like the mobility core. You get into things like our point-of-sale systems. You get into things like our digital applications and all of the IT infrastructure that supports this stuff. We're rebuilding all of that at the same time as what we're doing down at the base levels.
So what we're trying to accomplish as a company, as we've talked about what we did on Investor Day as an example, is over that same window that we're providing the financial guidance to the markets, we're rebuilding the infrastructure of the company to change the cost basis of what it takes to run these networks, and that's really hard.
We have a lot of old infrastructure. We have a lot of technical debt, just like a lot of telcos do. But we've ripped out a significant amount of that. We've already retired a couple of thousand applications that we no longer need. We've modernized much of our infrastructure up in the cloud.
We're one of the largest cloud partners that one of the hyperscalers has today. And we're going to rip out our point-of-sale systems. We've already done most of our customer care and call center systems, and those have been replaced. And so over the next few years, our spending curves associated with what we have to do there are going to go down and our ability to run the network and be the lowest cost bit transport provider, which is really what our goal is, is achievable.
So you sort of alluded to it, but help us conceptualize sort of what this end state looks like for you. What does it enable AT&T to do in the next 3 to 5 years?
So if you take -- I'll start at the top and then just sort of go down to the base, which is, if you go to our digital application, you're going to have personalized services and personalized offers that can go to you because we have that customer relationship.
If you go into a retail store, once we complete our sales force implementation as an example, we will have all the information consolidated from any calls you've made to customer care, any outages that you've experienced, where you are in your upgrade cycle for your iPhone, basic customer relationship management kinds of capabilities at retail that we have heretofore not had enough of.
As you then move down the layer of that, you're running mobility cores and you've collapsed all these old mobility cores because we run a lot of mobility cores today. You've collapsed those cores into that cloud-based stand-alone core that I described before, and you'll have migrated your base of subscribers onto the 5G stand-alone core, which changes your cost structure.
And as you go down even further, you get into what's happening in the central offices, what's happening in the MISO's, what's happening in O-RAN and the completion of that infrastructure. So we are attempting to get all of this done within the guidance periods that we described before, and we're very well down the road on this stuff. So it's very real. It's very hard.
It's not -- this is a lot of blocking and tackling and operational support that we have to provide. It requires a lot of software updates. It requires culture change in the people that operate these parts of the network, but it's where it's all headed, and we have a lot of conviction around getting this stuff completed. For no other reason, we don't have any choice. Like if we're going to be competitive in the markets of the future, we have to change the infrastructure that we have today.
Really changing the cost structure, too, with it.
Yes.
Talk a little bit about AT&T's internal initiatives with large language models. Can you give us some examples of how you're using LLMs internally?
Yes. I had the fortune of running the Bell Labs components of the company in my group, and so we actually have a long lineage in AI. Now AI is Gen AI, in particular, now Agentic AI is the current flavor of the month, but we've been doing this for a long time. And I've mentioned before, we've got over 600 models in production across our infrastructure.
What we've done is -- and again, I guess I'm using a sort of layer cake metaphors, but we can build LLMs. We do build some SLMs, but our focus is less there. The focus is on how do we leverage that technology and the chips that underlie it for our own data because it doesn't -- all of these LLMs were trained on the same information.
They're trained on the open Internet. I mean Reddit is one of the primary ways that the LLMs validate whether they're accurate or not. Well, they don't have any of our data. They don't have our network data. They don't have our customer data.
So as we've begun to ingest that data into these LLMs, we are tuning it for us, and the insights and the data science that we're using are very specific to the kinds of problems that we have, and so this is where I get into the point of being a practitioner of AI versus focusing on some of the things that you read in the press of what one LLM said about another LLM.
It's how do we use that to enhance the way we deal with RF and spectral efficiency? How do we use that to change the way we have relationships with customers to solve their problems? How do we use that to identify fraud? How do we use that in order to remediate issues in the network itself faster?
So an example is, we've loaded every trouble ticket in the company into our generative and Agentic AI frameworks. It now recommends what the fixes are and can write the code to do the fix, and should we just go ahead and automate that. We're still human in the loop there, but these are major, major changes.
And then also on the revenue side of the equation is how do you begin to ingest this stuff into the products and services that you offer. And so we're already doing that with things like upsells. We're doing that in products like Dynamic Defense, where on the cyber realms, you can't be the unsecure network provider. And so you're seeing Agentic and Gen AI threats coming in, and we're able now to block those from the network itself.
Got it. Talked a lot about different technology initiatives. The AT&T of the past, I think, was sort of -- had a lot of tech debt, right? You're sort of dealing with that today. How do you make sure that you're architecting in a way that you avoid tech debt in the future?
Yes. I mean there's a combination of things here. Some are technical and some are actually financed. Isolating the costs associated with the tech debt itself and understanding kind of product-based costing on that legacy infrastructure is essential and then starving it, making sure that when a new dollar of capital comes in that you spend the minimal amount possible on that legacy technical debt so that you continue to build the new.
The other things you do is as you set up your human capital, it's bifurcating how many people are working on the old stuff versus how many people are working on the new stuff. The business is going to want to get things out to market as quickly as possible, which may push you towards doing things on the old infrastructure, but you've got to be able to build out the new infrastructure and stay ahead.
So I call it the run fast strategy. How do we keep the new stuff running far enough ahead of the old stuff that ultimately it overtakes it. And that's another big component of that. There's a regulatory angle to this on legacy products and services of -- and big hats off to our public policy groups that's assisting us in how we get out of some of the traditional voice services, as an example, DSL services and other things for those legacy products.
So -- but the first thing is to size the problem, understand the cost with it, put the human capital against it and recognize that, that's not something that happens overnight. It's a slog to get that stuff out of the network. It took decades to put it in the network, but we're well down the path on doing that now.
Great. With that, we're just about out of time. So thank you, everybody, for joining us. And Jeremy, thank you for your time.
Yes. Thank you. Appreciate it.
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AT&T — KeyBanc Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forum
AT&T — KeyBanc Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forum
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: AT&T fokussiert auf eine technische Konvergenz von Draht‑ und Mobilnetz: Software‑definierte Kerne und Zentralstellen, O‑RAN im Funkbereich sowie cloud‑native 5G‑Stand‑alone‑Cores. Ziel: gemeinsame Infrastruktur für beide Geschäftsbereiche, deutlich geringere Transportkosten pro Bit und neue, API‑basierte Erlösquellen.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Netzkonvergenz: Ausbau zur Vereinheitlichung von Wireline und Wireless; Austausch proprietärer Hardware in ~4.000 Zentralstellen gegen Linux/x86‑Compute; Einsparungen bei Hardware, Arbeit und Betrieb.
- O‑RAN & Partner: Aktive O‑RAN‑Umsetzung mit Ericsson‑Komponenten, erste Telefonate über neue Infrastruktur; Fokus auf Multi‑Vendor‑RAN und API‑Layer als Treiber für Ökosystem‑Adoption.
- Cloud‑Cores: Mobility‑Core cloud‑native in Public Cloud, bereits Millionen Abonnenten auf dem 5G Stand‑alone (SA) Core; ermöglicht schnellere Produktbereitstellung und Monetarisierung via APIs (z.B. Dynamic Defense).
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Progress: AT&T berichtet, dass der Hardware‑zu‑Software‑Umbau innerhalb der zuvor kommunizierten Zeitfenster läuft und Teile „Anfang nächsten Jahres“ in Betrieb gehen sollen; außerdem konkrete Praxisfälle für KI‑Nutzung (Truble‑Ticket‑Ingestion, Automatisierungs‑Empfehlungen).
⚡ Bottom Line
- Relevanz: Wenn die technische Umstellung planmäßig gelingt, sinken langfristig die Kostenbasis und Skalenvorteile werden stärker nutzbar; gleichzeitig eröffnen API‑Produkte und Sicherheitsangebote neue Erlösquellen. Risiko bleibt bei komplexer Brownfield‑Migration, regulatorischer Legacy‑Abwicklung und operativen Integrationsproblemen.
AT&T — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to AT&T's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the floor over to your host, Brett Feldman, Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to our second quarter call. I'm Brett Feldman, Head of Investor Relations for AT&T. Joining me on the call today are John Stankey, our Chairman and CEO; and Pascal Desroches, our CFO. Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our safe harbor statement. It says that some of our comments today may be forward-looking. As such, they are subject to risks and uncertainties described in AT&T's SEC filings. Results may differ materially. Additional information as well as our earnings materials are available on our Investor Relations website. With that, I will turn the call over to John Stankey. John?
Thanks, Brett. I appreciate everyone joining us this morning. 5 years ago, we laid out a goal of becoming the best connectivity provider in America. To accomplish this, we set out a clear strategy built around putting the customer first and building the best network experience. We continue to make steady progress, and we're seeing the accumulating benefits from remaining consistent in our belief, investing in the most advanced and cost-efficient technologies while providing customers with the services and experiences they want. Halfway through the year, we've delivered growth in service revenues, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow and we're positioned to deliver on our full year consolidated financial guidance for 2025. Pascal will cover the details of our second quarter results and updated outlook, including the expected impacts of recent tax legislation in just a moment. So I'll use my time to discuss how we put considerable effort into building a business that's well positioned to win across different operating environments, thanks to our leading investments in 5G and fiber.
But before I do that, I'd like to acknowledge the recent Texas floods. Our heart goes out to all the families and communities affected by this devastating tragedy in our home state. I'd like to thank all of our employees who have stepped up and worked tirelessly to support the many first responders and government agencies with FirstNet. As Public Safety's partner, our support and obligations go beyond ensuring the continuity and availability of their purpose-built network to include meeting the special and dynamic needs of these vital public safety resources in a manner unique to our industry. This is a role that commands the highest attention and resources from our company and one that we're proud to serve.
Now shifting back to the state of our business. Our second quarter results highlight consistent trends across our operations. In Mobility, we added over 400,000 postpaid phone customers, driving service revenue growth of 3.5%. We also added 243,000 fiber subscribers in the second quarter, in addition to 203,000 Internet Air net additions. This represents nearly 450,000 new subscribers to our most advanced broadband services, driving further acceleration in the pace at which we're growing our base of home Internet customers. In fact, we nearly tripled our quarterly total broadband net adds in only 1 year. Customers continue to choose AT&T because of the simplicity of our offers, the quality of our services, and increasingly because they want to be served by one connectivity provider.
Our convergence trend accelerated in the second quarter, driven by growth in new customer relationships that subscribed to both our fiber and 5G services. As we've discussed in the past, our Mobility share is higher in areas where we offer fiber. We're also seeing high rates of converged service adoption among our Internet Air customer base as well as lower churn and improved lifetime values compared to stand-alone services. We view this as further evidence that our brand can attract broadband Internet customers nationwide, while also driving share gains in Mobility where we offer fiber or AT&T Internet air. Our customers' preferences for being served by one connectivity provider is a key reason we launched the AT&T Guarantee earlier this year. Our Guarantee is a promise to our customers that we will provide them with the connectivity they depend on, the deals they want and the service they deserve guaranteed or we'll make it right. We make this promise because we know our customers increasingly rely on AT&T as a trusted provider for all their connectivity needs. The early data points indicate that this promise is resonating with our customers. For example, since launching the AT&T Guarantee in January, we've seen improved Net Promoter Scores among our wireless and fiber customers following a network event. It's clear that we're winning with customers and our performance through the first half of the year highlights the returns we're achieving as we accelerate our fiber deployment and complete our wireless network modernization.
These initiatives are supported by pro-investment provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Thanks to the policies in this legislation, we intend to invest more rapidly in next-generation networks. This includes plans to invest a portion of these savings into our network, primarily by accelerating our fiber deployment to a pace of 4 million new locations per year, a run rate we expect to achieve by the end of 2026. This will support good paying middle-class jobs all right here in the U.S. As a result of our stepped-up investment, we now expect that by the end of 2030, we'll reach approximately 50 million customer locations in region -- in more than 60 million fiber locations when including the Lumen mass markets fiber assets we've agreed to acquire, our GigaPower joint venture and agreements with other commercial open access providers. This would double our fiber reach from more than 30 million total locations, a milestone we reached ahead of schedule during the second quarter.
This bill also creates a pipeline of mid-band spectrum that will help meet soaring consumer demand and keep the U.S. technologically competitive with other countries. Paired with the tax provisions in the bill, this legislation paves the way to the stated goals laid out by FCC Chairman, Brendan Carr to unleash high-speed infrastructure builds and restore America's global lead in wireless technology through smart policy. The sustained growth in our customer base and free cash flow paired with our strong balance sheet, positions us with ample financial flexibility to make opportunistic growth-enhancing investments in fiber and spectrum that result from these policies, all while delivering on the capital returns we outlined at our Analyst and Investor Day last year.
In addition to investing a portion of these cash tax savings into our network, we intend to contribute $1.5 billion to our pension plan by the end of next year. This, coupled with the job creation associated with our stepped-up investments in world-class U.S. communications infrastructure demonstrates why the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is great policy for American workers. We're also making progress, retiring our inefficient legacy copper infrastructure. I'm pleased to report we filed with the FCC to discontinue service across approximately 10% of our wire centers in 17 states. This is a key step towards our target of discontinuing service across the large majority of our copper footprint by the end of 2029. We feel great about the steps we're taking to be the best connectivity provider in America and how this industry is positioned to evolve over the next decade.
Investment in policy tailwinds are as strong as I can remember since maybe the Telecommunications Act of 1996. We're significantly expanding. We're able to offer next-generation 5G and fiber connectivity services, allowing us to provide exceptional customer experiences that are more efficient to run and maintain. We expect the result to be faster growth, higher operating leverage and lower capital intensity as we complete the large majority of these network investments and transformation initiatives over the remainder of this decade. This is why I strongly believe AT&T's best days are in front of us. And with that, I'll now turn it over to Pascal.
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. At a consolidated level, total revenues and adjusted EBITDA each grew 3.5% year-over-year during the second quarter. Adjusted EPS was $0.54 in the quarter, which was up approximately 6% from $0.51 in the prior year. Second quarter free cash flow was $4.4 billion, which was up from $4 billion the prior year. Capital investment came in at $5.1 billion, which was up modestly year-over-year. Looking forward, we expect third quarter capital investment in the $5 billion to $5.5 billion range with free cash flow in the $4.5 billion to $5 billion range.
During the second quarter, we repurchased approximately $1 billion of stock, and we have bought back about $300 million so far this quarter. Towards the end of my comments, I will provide an update on the expected impact of recent tax legislation on our full year and long-term financial outlook and capital allocation.
Turning next to our business unit results. Starting with Mobility, where I want to spend a moment sharing our perspective on the operating environment in wireless and why we believe our differentiated strategy has enabled us to perform well across market cycles. Over the course of the year, activity has picked up across the sector, and our outlook assumes the operating environment remains similar during the second half of the year. Against this backdrop, our Mobility business performed very well in the second quarter. On the top line, we grew Mobility service revenue 3.5% with EBITDA growth of 3.2% year-over-year. We delivered 401,000 postpaid phone net adds in the second quarter. This subscriber growth was ahead of our own expectations, driven by postpaid phone gross adds that increased more than 20% versus last year. I'd also like to remind you that our postpaid phone net adds do not reflect prepaid customer migrations. These are new, high-value paying customer relationships, which are fueling our strong growth in Mobility service revenues.
Additionally, our Mobility subscriber growth is increasingly fueled by customers taking both our wireless and broadband services. We continue to see a high adoption of our lead offers with our most valuable cohort of customers, which are converged subscribers. Postpaid phone churn of 0.87% was up 17 basis points versus last year. A key driver of this trend was the portion of our base reaching the end of device financing periods as well as the increased activity in the marketplace. Based on this operating environment, we're planning for postpaid phone churn to follow seasonal patterns in the back half of the year, which typically sees more switching during new device launches in the holiday period.
While the cost of acquiring and retaining subscribers has increased, our success at adding high-value customer relationships points to the attractive returns we're driving through our offers. As a result of the tailwinds in our Mobility business, we are increasing our full year guidance for Mobility service revenue growth to 3% or better from our previous outlook for growth in the high end of the 2% to 3% range. We expect this will result in higher growth-related spending in the near term, and we now expect that Mobility EBITDA growth will be approximately 3% this year versus our initial outlook for growth in the high end of the 3% to 4% range. As a reminder, our third quarter Mobility results last year included a $90 million noncash benefit to service revenue and EBITDA related to certain administrative fees.
It's also worth noting that higher Mobility equipment costs related to higher volumes and spending on the launch of AT&T Guarantee were the primary drivers of higher cash operating expenses in our Communications segment during the first half of the year. In the aggregate, all other cash operating expenses across Mobility and wireline business units declined year-over-year. This was a result of our cost initiatives, and we expect this trend to continue during the second half of the year. This is allowing us to partially reinvest these savings into high-value customer growth, which we expect to improve our growth profile over the long term. Also, improved cost trends are among the reasons we are increasing our full year EBITDA guidance for both wireline business units. I'll discuss why in a few moments, but the key point is that our cost initiatives and wireline outperformance are helping offset higher near-term growth-related investment in Mobility. Accordingly, we continue to expect consolidated adjusted EBITDA growth of 3% or better.
Consumer Wireline reported another quarter of strong financial performance. Total revenue grew 5.8% year-over-year, driven by approximately 19% growth in fiber revenue. We added 243,000 fiber customers in the second quarter, up slightly versus last year. As a reminder, the second quarter is typically our lowest quarter for subscriber growth, and we expect higher fiber net adds in the third quarter.
The pace at which our fiber customers are adopting, our Mobility services accelerated during the quarter. We ended 2Q with a fiber and 5G convergence rate of 40.9%. This represents a 70 basis point improvement from the first quarter and 140 basis point improvement versus a year ago. Our success driving broadband growth and adoption of converged offers is not limited to our fiber customer base. During the second quarter, we also saw acceleration in our Internet Air net adds, which exceeded 200,000 for the first time ever. As a result, we exited the second quarter with over 1 million consumer Internet Air subscribers.
One driver of our ramp in AT&T Internet Air customers has been our wireless network modernization efforts, which have materially expanded the coverage of our mid-band spectrum and therefore, the regions where we can offer the service. Our broadband strategy is and will remain fiber first. However, we are increasingly able to offer Internet Air today in areas where we intend to offer fiber in the future. This positions us to leverage Internet Air to create a funnel of broadband customers that we can migrate to fiber over time as we expand fiber to the serve areas where these customers live.
Based on the expanded availability and strong demand, we expect a higher level of Internet Air net adds in the second half of the year as compared to the first half. Consumer Wireline EBITDA grew 17.8% for the quarter and is up more than 18% through the first half of the year. This represents a greater than 100% conversion of revenue growth into EBITDA growth despite ongoing declines in legacy revenues. The key driver of this high operating leverage are the efficiencies from scaling our fiber network and customer base as well as the traction we're seeing with cost savings initiatives, including progress with our legacy copper network retirement.
It's also important to note that while our Mobility business carries the bulk of the costs associated with growing our converged customer base such as the cost of device offers, the positive impact of higher broadband revenues is reported within Consumer Wireline. This is an example of how our stepped-up investment in Mobility growth positions us to drive long-term returns, not only in our Mobility business but to our business overall.
Based on the momentum we're seeing in broadband and our improved operating efficiencies, we are increasing our full year guidance for consumer fiber broadband revenues to growth in the mid- to high teens from our previous outlook for growth in the mid-teens. We are also increasing our outlook for consumer wireline EBITDA growth to the low to mid-teens from our initial outlook for growth in the high single to low double-digit range. Similarly, in Business Wireline, we are outperforming our initial outlook midway through the year, thanks to slightly less legacy wireline pressure than expected and solid execution of cost takeout initiatives. In the quarter, Business Wireline revenues declined 9.3% year-over-year with Business Wireline EBITDA declining 11.3%. Business Wireline operating and support costs were down nearly $275 million year-over-year due to lower force in contractor costs. We expect to reinvest some of these savings in the third quarter to drive future growth in fiber and advanced connectivity revenues. While this will put some incremental sequential pressure on third quarter EBITDA, we now expect full year Business Wireline EBITDA to decline in the low double-digit range versus our initial outlook for a mid-teens decline.
Before we take your questions, I want to spend a few moments providing you with an update on capital allocation and the impact of recent tax legislation. Overall, we feel really good about the strength and management of our balance sheet based on current operating trends and our outlook for the business. We continue to operate within our leverage target of net debt to adjusted EBITDA in the 2.5x range, ending the second quarter with net leverage of 2.64x, which was essentially unchanged compared to 2.63x at the end of the first quarter. Net debt increased slightly by $1.2 billion sequentially. A key factor driving this increase was a $2.8 billion noncash remeasurement of our foreign debt related to the weakening of the U.S. dollar.
As a reminder, we fully hedged the FX impact on our foreign bonds would be offset reported in other liabilities and other assets. At the start of July, we closed the sale of our full remaining stake in DIRECTV to TPG. Of the original $7.6 billion in cash proceeds, we have more than $4 billion remaining and we expect to receive the significant majority in 2025. These proceeds will be reported within investing activities in the statement of cash flow, and will continue to be excluded from our reported free cash flow.
Our approach to capital investments remains largely driven by our fiber deployment and wireless network modernization consistent with the priorities we outlined at our 2024 Analyst and Investor Day. With that said, based on the passage of recent legislation, we'd like to provide a few key updates to how we're thinking about our long-term outlook as we see things right now.
We expect to realize between $6.5 billion and $8 billion in cash tax savings from 2025 through 2027 as a result of the tax provisions included in the legislation. As a reminder, the initial guidance we provided at our Analyst and Investor Day implied an outlook for cash taxes of approximately $3.5 billion in 2025, and approximately $4.5 billion in both 2026 and 2027. Relative to that guidance, we now expect cash taxes to be lower by $1.5 billion to $2 billion in 2025, and $2.5 billion to $3 billion in both 2026 and 2027. As John noted, we intend to invest a portion of these savings in our network, primarily by accelerating the pace of our fiber deployment. This process is already underway and is expected to result in about $0.5 billion of additional capital investment in 2025 and about $3 billion of additional capital investment across 2026 and 2027 combined compared to the guidance we provided at our Analyst and Investor Day.
We also intend to contribute $1.5 billion of these savings into our employee pension plan by the end of 2026, with more than half of that coming in 2025. This contribution would elevate the plan's funded status to approximately 95% based on the last reported valuation. Our goal is to fully fund the employee pension plan by the early part of next decade. The remainder of the tax savings will be reflected in our free cash flow. In 2025, most of these savings will be reinvested, but we do see full year free cash flow trending slightly ahead of our initial outlook. We now expect free cash flow in the low to mid $16 billion range versus our prior guidance of $16 billion plus. For 2026 and 2027, we expect approximately $1 billion of upside to the annual free cash flow guidance we provided at our Analyst and Investor Day. This will add to our financial flexibility, and we are evaluating options for allocating this capital, including strategic investments that complement or accelerate our organic growth strategy, additional capital returns and debt reduction. In the near term, we intend to accelerate the pace of share repurchases under our $10 billion authorization and now expect to buy back $4 billion of stock by year-end.
So in summary, we're really pleased with the team's performance at the midway point in the year as we continue to make progress on becoming the best connectivity provider in America. Brett, that's our presentation. We're now ready for the Q&A.
Thank you, Pascal. Operator, we are ready to take the first question.
[Operator Instructions] And our first question today comes from John Hodulik with UBS.
2. Question Answer
If we could start with the wireless churn. You guys called out the 17 basis point increase in phone churn in the quarter. And Pascal, thanks for the comments about the seasonal patterns. But can you talk about whether you expect to see a similar increase in the second half of the year based on what you're seeing from a competitive standpoint and from a cohort expiration standpoint? And then secondly, thanks for the info on the decommissioning and the 10% of wire centers. Is there any way to quantify the savings from this initial filing or talk about the opportunity for savings as far as that initiative is concerned?
John, I appreciate the question. As we think about churn, let's go back to what we said at the beginning of the year. We said that this year, we had a higher percentage of our customers coming off of financing contracts. And we, all things being equal, expected a higher level of churn, plus a continued normalization of the number of net adds. On top of that, in the first half of the year, I think -- it's fair to say we probably saw a little bit more impact from those than anticipated at the beginning of the year as well as probably a little bit of pull forward of demand on the consumer side because of tariffs. All those things together resulted in the first half that had higher activity. As you look to the second half, I do believe there was some pull forward of demand. We don't -- we haven't seen what the new device offer will bring. But for planning purposes, we are assuming that we're going to continue to have a competitive environment. And our outlook is underwritten in that regard. We're hopeful some of the activity does dissipate, but we're planning for a more active environment.
In terms of cost savings, well, here's what I would tell you. We're already seeing the benefits of cost savings associated with our legacy transformation happening. I'm really proud of the team and what you're seeing in our performance. When you take out growth-related expenses, promotions and our Guarantee advertising campaign, our expenses are down. And they're down because of all the great work that's happening across the board in care, in FieldTech and importantly, in overall legacy transformation. And look, we -- as you heard in my commentary, we expect that to continue in the back part of the year. And as more and more wirelines come offline, we're going to have the ability to continue to drive cost out. So we feel really good about our performance.
Our next question comes from Peter Supino from Wolfe Research. .
A question going back to the subject of churn and then one on spectrum. On churn, I wondered if your outlook for the year should cause AT&T to rethink the velocity of price increases. I heard you loud and clear that the expiration of installment periods, is it playing a big role in this year's higher activity and wondering how you think about the other drivers? And then on spectrum, I wondered about the budget in your long-term guidance for acquisitions. Is it possible that spectrum worth much more than you've allocated for acquisitions will come to market in general? And I wondered if you would -- in that instance, would you regard the budget for acquisitions in your long-term guidance as subject to review or as limiting?
What I would tell you on churn as we kind of think about what's been going on, I don't view pricing as being our issue in terms of managing churn. Obviously, every time we take a pricing action, we're cognizant that there's going to be some dislocation dislocation that we have been historically pretty good at assessing modeling and managing. We try to do our pricing in a way where we tie prices to value, so we find places where there's maybe recaptured value that we can price out differently so that the customer feels like it's not just a price increase, but they understand they've gotten something over time or in return for it where they're less likely to go. And it's not to say that we don't get some churn when we price, but we get churn that's been in line with our expectations. I'm not going to sit here and tell you right now that what we're seeing in our churn performance is the result of miscalculations in our pricing decisions. That having been said, we're always mindful when we make a pricing decision of the environment that we're in. And I'm very mindful right now of the environment we're in, that we've got segments of the consumer base that are not in the same position as other segments of the consumer base. And as a result of that, as we think about our strategies and how we manage things, we try to be deliberate. And does that mean that on the margin, we may make a decision here or there that's different at this moment in time given where the economy is and what's going on? Of course. I'm not going to tell you what those are because we never prediscuss or give that kind of information out in a public forum like this. But I don't view pricing as kind of being our answer to churn issue one way or the other. And I think we've managed it pretty effectively over the last couple of years, and we'll continue to do that. On the spectrum side, I think I'd go back to comments I've made multiple times that I've shared with you, and they usually come up in the context of why is 2.5x adjusted net debt to EBITDA the right level for our business? And I think I've tried to articulate that there's a lot of reasons why we arrived at that number as being the right place for us to be, including our bias for organic investment in the business versus strategic M&A that we feel pretty comfortable that we've got great opportunities to reinvest in the business as evidenced by the fact that we accelerated some of our capital investment in a key area where we're generating, I think, great long-term value in the fiber space. And 2.5x gives us an opportunity to go to market and pick up the kind of cash we need to pick up if, in fact, something that is nonstrategic M&A, but is what I would call asset acquisition presents itself to us. Lumen would be a great example of I thought what was an excellent asset acquisition opportunity that was in front of us, and we chose to do that. I would put spectrum in that category. As I've said multiple times, we're constantly evaluating spectrum options in the market. I think the spectrum market just became really interesting. The fact that there's now an FCC that's back in business that can auction and there's a stated pipeline means that we have a more secure supply of spectrum coming forward in the market and a more secure supply of spectrum coming forward is a disciplining issue on valuations of spectrum, and it gives a lot of choices of what we can do and how we think about this and how we time it out when there is a pipeline that's declared and it will happen over a number of years to be very deliberate in how we do our network planning and where we carry forward. To be sure, spectrum is a lifeblood of our wireless business. We've always invested in it strategically. We always have been very satisfied with the decisions we've made on investment there, and I don't expect that to change. But what I would tell you is if something pops up, we have the opportunity within our capital structure today to go and take advantage of that, while at the same time, honoring the commitments we've made back out to our shareholders and ensuring that we stay on the plans that we're in place on and not moving off of those or changing it. And that's why we engineered at the level we engineered at. And I think that's what you should take forward from that.
Our next question comes from Benjamin Swinburne from Morgan Stanley.
Maybe a bit of a bigger picture question just on the fiber build and then back to mobility. hit the 30 million fiber mark, now talking about $60 million plus by 2030. Can you talk about, since John, you've been there the whole time, the returns you see in the $30 million ahead versus the $30 million look back? I mean there's sort of debates on whether you built the best parts of the country first. At the same time, I can imagine your execution on fiber is improving as you build more expertise. I'd love to hear your thoughts on kind of the returns and penetration profiles you see looking ahead versus looking back. And then just on mobility, how do you guys think about the returns you're generating in this business? I mean churn is a huge focus, but it's just one input. into returns. So could you talk a little bit about how you feel the quality of your incremental mobility customers are coming in now when you sort of put all the pieces together in the business relative to sort of the churn focus that we all have out in the market?
So first of all, not every house is created equal. I'm not going to tell you that the $60 million home we built is as profitable as the first one we built. But what you should understand is they are very profitable. They all hit our return rates. And as we've talked about more and more, as you start thinking about a converged dynamic, it's not just the cost of building fiber, it's what you can do in putting multiple products in a household, which over time is that penetration level of converged customer increases, it's only going to improve the economic returns of having built a world-class fixed infrastructure. When we look at building into an area, it has always carried 100% on the foundation of whether or not we can make the money pay on broadband only. And so the fact that we're able to pick up on wireless is kind of the icing on top of the cake. I'm very familiar with a variety of different analysis -- analyses that have come out over a period of time to talk about what the costs are to build to, let's call it, the 60% to 80% range of the footprint versus the first 60% range of the footprint. I think I know my costs and my operation better than people who sit outside the business do, and I will tell you what they report in many instances is patently wrong. It's not correct in terms of capturing what our relationships are with vendors, the cost at which we build, what we're getting in scaling economics, what we've been able to do to innovate and change things. And yes, our cost per unit will go up as we move deeper into the footprint, but it does not go up at a level that deteriorates the competitive returns we need to offer back a fair return to our shareowners and the cost of capital that it takes us to do those things. And I feel really confident about that. And there's no reason for us to continue doing that if that were the case. There's probably other things we should be doing with the money like returning it back to the shareholder if we didn't think we can hit those hurdle rates. On our Mobility returns, I think we've been pretty clear. I mean, the narrative that we gave you at the front end of this was all geared around this, we feel very comfortable with our growth. We feel that we're not going to grow for growth's sake. We're going to the right kind of growth. We're going to the kind of growth that first of all, customers are paying us for the lines. We're not out there giving away free lines. We're not adding on to existing products and services that we have for free. We are bringing in paying customers. You see what's happening in our service revenue performance. We shared with you that because we've done what we've done over the last couple of years in margin improvement is driven through this business and its scale in a different way, lifetime values have gotten better. It's not a surprise that you're going to invest a little bit more at the front end to pick up something with a higher lifetime value. And if you have some degree of confidence in a percentage of that base is ultimately going to be buying more than one product from you, which we do, and we're demonstrating with our results. Then you invest to do that and you invest to get those customers that you have the highest probability of consolidating. And as we just shared with you in the narrative, our converged rate this quarter is actually accelerating. It accelerated at a faster rate than what we've seen at any point in our history. And so we feel good that we're executing on those strategies that when we're investing in that growth that we are going to get the return. And I'm particularly excited about, as we shared earlier in our comments, we've done really well at the top end of the market with a premium product like fiber and pairing it with our postpaid. We're now starting to get our grove and understanding where we can put the low-end product, which I consider to be fixed wireless. It's more to the price-sensitive segments of the market and the less industrial strength, I think that only gives us another play to do this and do this well as we move forward, and we feel really comfortable about that portfolio and what we can do with it.
One other point. I think it's really important when you look at our returns, look at the service revenue in Mobility, we're up 3.5%, and that doesn't include the benefit of fixed wireless, which are reporting in our consumer segment. And it doesn't include the really strong benefits of convergence, which are reported in consumer wireline. So -- look, this business is performing as well as ever had, and we are incredibly bullish on the future. .
Our next question comes from Michael Rollins from Citi.
So two topics. EBITDA in the fiber footprint. So -- as a follow-up to your comments on the revised EBITDA growth guidance for Mobility, given that the first half is ahead of the full year guide, are there additional pressures that you're seeing in the back half of the year relative to first half that we all should be mindful of? And can you remind us where Mobility is on the journey to extract additional efficiencies and savings from the cost program? And then just on the fiber footprint, just curious if you have an update on the opportunities to expand the open access program to increase passings beyond the 60 million target that you outlined on today's call.
Mike, I'll handle the first question. In terms of Mobility growth in the first half, we're really happy with it. As we -- as I mentioned in my commentary, we don't -- when you look at the back half of the year, we're assuming that you're going to continue to have an active environment. We're hopeful that that's not the case. You'll see some dissipation in what's happening in the back half of the year because there was clearly some pull forward of demand related to the tariffs and all the uncertainty around that. With that said, we're planning for a more active second half, which is in line with seasonal pattern. Keep in mind that last year in Q3, we had a onetime noncash item that we called out, that is also going to make comparisons in the back half, particularly challenging. But other than those two cautions, we feel really good about the performance of Mobility and our ability to perform. So we're just being cautious because we don't know what environment we're going to be operating in. .
Mike, your question on the fiber footprint. There are places where we can pick up some more open access opportunity. I'd probably maybe take the liberty to broaden your question a little bit to think about -- we've now given you a road map between now and 2030 as to how we're going to be far above 60 million homes in what I'll call our owned operating control footprint, all things that we have visibility to right now in existing relationships in trench within. And job one to drive value around here is to execute really well. on that set of strategies. And Lumen is probably the next piece of that footprint that we need to bring that in under the umbrella, and we need to do really well in how we execute around that and it can create a lot of value for us. And that kind of thing has some scale that can move some numbers. I'm not dismissing the rest of the work, but it's open -- the combination of open access and the combination of overbuilders is a pretty fragmented space. And maybe it's better for me to comment on how I see over the course of this period in 2030, the cards that we have and how we play them. I control my ability to be a very strong footprint player through 2030 that we have now since came in 5 years ago and started to talk about this, and everybody said, well, what do you do with 20 million homes, what do you do with 30 million homes. We have a path outlined for you is we are going to be a scaled player on the best technology in the United States. I think there's others that are going to really struggle in this market because as I've been very clear, I think we're in a converged market space. I think we're going to see over time combination of national players that need assets to do both fixed and mobile together, and that's going to result in customer expectations and to be successful, you're going to need to be able to do both. And if you're kind of an island-based overbuilder or you're an open access provider that has a small footprint, that's not a hospitable environment necessarily to be in when scale costs are important and distribution is important. And I expect, in some cases, some of these overbuilders are not entirely well capitalized. You can see their business plans are a bit stressed. Look, I like picking up assets in a way that we can drive value at them. I'm not going to go out and overpay to buy stuff that that somebody wants to sell at a massive premium and they haven't figured out how to operate and unlock the value in the business. But to the extent that there's an opportunity that fits in with our existing footprint where we can continue to enjoy our economies of scale and our our footprint and our operations footprint where we don't get fragmented and we don't get spread too thin. That's how I think about playing patiently over the long haul to take what I've already secured, which is a preferred footprint in the United States and maybe add a little bit to it over time.
Our next question comes from Sebastiano Petti with JPMorgan.
Just wanted to follow up on consumer wireline subscriber expectations for the back half of the year. I think, Pascal, you said that you expect higher Internet Air adds, which is not surprising given the momentum. But typically, you would also see higher fiber net additions in the second half relative to the first half or a typical seasonality over the last several years would dictate that, that would be the case. Any reason to think that, that would not necessarily occur this year? And within that context, perhaps are you seeing any change in level of competitiveness from the cable guys as they perhaps maybe lean in a little bit more on bundling, a little bit more on convergence?
I don't expect seasonality to be different this year. I mean, we're not planning on it being different this year. So I would expect because of that seasonality that you referenced, you'll probably see historically our net add numbers on fiber adjust to that seasonality and move through it. I think the other thing that I would just kind of counsel on, we tried to give you a little bit of a sense of if we're going to build 4 million homes a year instead of 3 million, we've kind of given you a ramp rate into that you can now think about that doesn't all come online. At the same time, we ramp into it through 2026, and we ultimately reach about a 4 million home per year build rate by the time we exit 2026. You should expect as that inventory step-up occurs as that build to escalate that will certainly help. But I'd also like to point you back to something else. When you think about the mix of our fiber net adds today versus the mix of our fiber net adds 3 years ago, there's a surprisingly small -- not surprisingly, I guess, you'd say there is a predictable smaller amount of migrations going on between our existing customers onto the fiber infrastructure from copper because we've worked through a lot of that. And we're maintaining these net add numbers and we're increasing the share take that is effectively coming from cable. And we've been doing just fine. I'm very pleased with our growth rates and what we've been able to do given our inventory. And as you see, we continue to march up our penetration. We're north of 40% penetrated now as we've been characterizing it for you, and we continue to march up that. And I've always said the number between 40% and 50% is going to come slower than the number did between 0 and 20 and 20 to 30 and 30 to 40. That's just the way it goes. The good news is we're producing a lot of cash at 40%, and we can be very patient to work our way through the next 10% in an economical fashion. And I'm not seeing anything right now that's going on in the market that restricts us from being able to get our fair share every quarter, and I feel really good about how the team is operating around that.
Our next question comes from Bryan Kraft from Deutsche Bank.
I wanted to ask two, if I could. I guess, first, just how do you think this more elevated mobile churn and gross add environment across the industry impacts your ability to Mobility margins in 2026 and beyond? Do you continue to see that continued margin expansion opportunity? Or should we think about the healthy margins you have today as being more stable as opposed to increasing? And then I just wanted to check in separately on what you're seeing from a macro perspective? Anything to call out that you're seeing consumers or businesses? Any potential impact from federal government cuts that might be coming that could impact Business Wireline or Mobility?
Bryan, let me start. When you look at our Mobility business, a big part of what you're seeing is higher growth-related spending in the first half of the year. But it's coming with high-quality revenues, as John alluded to earlier. We grew service revenues 3.5% in the second quarter. We are -- we raised guidance on service revenues for the year because we feel really good about that trajectory. As you know, growth-related spend will be lumpy depending upon market conditions. Excluding growth-related spends, there was -- we expect the operating leverage to really be good in that business, and we would expect margins to continue to perform well. It's really -- in any given quarter, it's going to be a function of the level of growth-related spend. .
So on the macro perspective, let me start with this, let me reinforce what I offered in my opening comments. I can't remember who said it earlier, I guess, Ben was making a comment about how long I've been around here insulting me. I have been around the industry a bit, I don't know that I've ever seen from a pro-investment policy perspective that's out there right now in terms of incentives to invest organically in your business, a telecom policy perspective that's been laid out under this administration and where we see the SEC going all the way from incentives to get out of old infrastructure and invest in new to spectrum pipelines that are in place, the desires to remove restrictions on useless regulations that drive costs in the business, that the market takes care of now that we don't need to have around because we're no longer in common carrier models. I've not seen a situation where those tailwinds were all aligned and as strong as they are at any time in my career as they are right now. And I'm surprised I don't see more commentary on that from those of you that watch to the industry. I would even say the alignment of those policy things that are going on right now in the direction that's occurring and the lack of friction in getting some changes done is even more significant when the Telecom Act of 96 was passed. And so I view that as a very good thing for this industry, especially at the time when there's a seminal change coming in the way workloads and traffic are generated like AI, and the need to be able to manage traffic across the fabric of fixed and wireless networks for the purposes of securing performance into the cloud, to be able to secure those packets in a consolidated way where you can manage those workloads for customers in workplaces, I think that macro dynamic is really, really good for our industry. And I feel good about it where we stand right now being part of it as a result of that. And that's one of the things that gives me confidence to redirect some of the benefits we've gotten from the Reform Act back into the business. I might not have felt that way 4 years ago with what was on the horizon than I do at this juncture.
Now second thing I would offer. There are other policy things that are going on that are impacting some aspects of the macro environment, in particular, I'll say, public sector, a combination of federal government spending that has had some dislocation. And some of that's moving down into other public sector entities, maybe it's universities, maybe it's local governments because as the government -- if the federal government changes their allocations in various places, we see other entities having to evaluate their spending patterns of what they're doing. And those numbers you're seeing a little bit and some of the softness in a couple of the areas that we've highlighted for you and they're showing in our numbers. But we also told you at the beginning of the year, we expected some of that to happen. And that we felt like we could manage through that and still meet our guidance to you. And in fact, immigration is another one. If you look at what's gone on in the postpaid -- the prepaid market this quarter, I do believe some of that falls through to immigration and some of the dynamics that are occurring there. Again, we told you that there was going to be an impact. We told you it was manageable given our exposure to that particular piece of the market. And I think we're demonstrating that we're kind of working our way through it.
The piece that remains out there that I continue to watch and want to understand is we're an animal -- a small animal and a larger economy. And what ultimately happens in the larger economy is certainly going to be important to us. I would really like to see some of the uncertainty around tariffs start to dissipate. And that's a piece that's still a bit unknown to everybody in business as I speak to my peers. I'm not going to pontificate or handicap that as to how that works out any differently than people who are far more expert in it than I am. But clearly, getting some of that uncertainty out is like taking a macro environment that is really moving in the right direction right now, and that's like putting a little bit of jet fuel on it, if you can get that one off the table.
Our last question comes from Kannan Venkateshwar from Barclays.
John, when you think about the scaling both the fiber business as well as fixed wireless going forward. Could you talk a little bit about how they fit together? I mean are they mutually exclusive in terms of segments the way you're thinking about it? Or does fixed wireless provide funneling mechanism to reduce your for fiber. I mean, as both of these scales, how do they fit versus each other? to get your thoughts on that.
I guess you could say mutually exclusive are actually complementary is the way I would describe them. I think fiber is the scaled long-term solution at the top end of the market. But look, there is a price-sensitive segment and there is a less usage intensive segment. And fixed wireless is a viable alternative to do that. And given the dynamics of how spectrum is bought and how capacity is allocated in the network, it'd be great if we never had to buy spectrum and end up with fallow capacity, but based on how licenses are done and the dynamics around those things. And based on how share plays out in certain parts of the country where we've been telling you where we build fiber, we have great share position. Some places where we don't build fiber, we have lower share. Therefore, we have more fallow capacity in the network to possibly deploy because of the way we had to buy licenses in instances. And so I view them as highly complementary. Primary goal and objective is to put fiber where we can get the kind of workloads that justify that investment that offer the returns I addressed earlier. And we've given you a point of view of what that footprint is right now between now and 2030, very transparent about that. We're very clear where we're going to build those things. On the flip side, any place where we're not doing that, why shouldn't we think about if we have fallow capacity and opportunity in our wireless business that we can deploy to converge a customer and we can attack the segments where the product is best suited. And it's not for everybody, but there are -- as I've said many times, there are many businesses where fixed wireless is the best solution for them. There are people living in studio apartments that are consultants that are home 2 and 3 nights a week that fixed wireless may be a really good solution for them. There are folks that can afford to buy some capacity, but they can't buy all the capacity, but they want something that's more reliable and higher performing dynamic at a lower price. Fixed wireless is really good for them. We should meet those customers where they are, and we're now getting a lot better about doing that. And look, when you know you're going to be building fiber in 2 years and you want to hold a particular segment where maybe you were doing business before or you want to early penetrate it and enroll people, it's also a great tool to do that. And you'll probably see us use that technique in parts of the Lumen footprint that we have naturally little wireless share where we can go in a little bit more aggressively and know where we're going to be in 3 years to then upsell somebody to an even better solution. So maybe they're mutually exclusive because you don't want to be selling both in the same area, but you -- I consider them complementary because you want to use them to attack different parts of the market or use it to supplement what is ultimately the long-term scale solution, which is fixed infrastructure with fiber. And I think it's why the story of organic investment is so strong and so important right now, we went at the top with fiber because it's a better product, and we take share, and we can play at the bottom with a price-sensitive offer that hitting people at the top and the bottom is just a really good place to be and it feels really nice compared to where we were, say, 10 years ago.
Folks, thank you very much for your time this morning. I appreciate it. I think as you can see, we laid out a direction for our business 5 years ago as to how we felt like we needed to invest in infrastructure to secure the highest percentage of share of spend in this industry and do it better than anybody else. And I believe you're seeing the data points now establish themselves in our performance that demonstrate the approach we're using and the organic investment in our infrastructure networks is paying off, and how that is ultimately coming to pass. And I believe when you look from a policy perspective and how our competitors are reacting to the market, it validates the direction we've been heading. And I think I'm really proud of the team of what they've been able to do to demonstrate the results in that regard and move our business forward. As Pascal said earlier, we feel really good about the progress we made, but we know we're not quite all hitting on 8 cylinders yet. And as a result of that, feel really energized around what we can do to make the business even better and deliver strong results as we move forward. Thanks for your time this morning.
Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
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AT&T — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
AT&T — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz & EBITDA: Total revenues und adjusted EBITDA jeweils +3,5% YoY.
- Ergebnis je Aktie: Adjusted EPS $0,54 (+~6% YoY).
- Free Cash Flow: $4,4 Mrd. (vs. $4,0 Mrd. Vorjahr).
- CapEx: $5,1 Mrd. im Quartal; Q3-Erwartung $5–5,5 Mrd.
- Netto‑Zuwächse: 401.000 Postpaid‑Phones, 243.000 Fiber, 203.000 Internet Air (~450.000 advanced broadband adds).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Fiber‑Rush: Ziel: 4 Mio. neue Haushalte/Jahr bis Ende 2026; ~50 Mio. Kundenstandorte bis 2030 (>60 Mio. inkl. Lumen, JV, Open‑Access).
- Kapitalallokation: Ein Teil der erwarteten Steuerersparnisse wird in beschleunigten Netzausbau investiert; $1,5 Mrd. geplante Pensionszahlung bis Ende 2026.
- Convergence & Garantie: Höhere Konvergenz (Fiber+5G), AT&T Guarantee verbessert Net Promoter Scores; Strategie soll Churn senken und LTV erhöhen.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Mobility: Service‑Revenue‑Wachstum auf ≥3% hochgestuft; Mobility‑EBITDA ~3% (gegenüber früherer oberen Guidance).
- Wireline: Consumer Fiber‑Revenuen nun mid‑ to high‑teens Wachstum; Consumer Wireline EBITDA low‑mid teens; Business Wireline EBITDA Rückgang nun low double‑digit.
- Cash & Steuern: Erwartete Cash‑Tax‑Ersparnis $6,5–8,0 Mrd. (2025–2027); Free Cash Flow 2025 nun low–mid $16 Mrd.; Buybacks: $4 Mrd. bis Jahresende geplant.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Churn: Höherer Phone‑Churn (+17 bp) getrieben von auslaufenden Gerätefinanzierungen; Management plant für ein aktiveres H2, will Pricing vorsichtig steuern, nennt aber keine konkreten Preisanpassungen.
- Fiber‑Returns: Fragen zu Wirtschaftlichkeit weiterer Ausbaustufen; Management betont skaleneffekte, erwartet weiterhin akzeptable Renditen und selektive bolt‑on‑Chancen (z.B. Lumen).
- Spectrum & Kapital: Analysten hoben Budget für Spectrum hervor; Management signalisiert Flexibilität innerhalb einer ~2.5x Verschuldungsziel‑Ambition, nennt aber keine detaillierten Kaufpläne.
⚡ Bottom Line
AT&T liefert solide operative Daten und hebt mehrere Zielgrößen an: beschleunigter Fiber‑Ausbau, höhere Mobilfunkumsätze und spürbare Steuerersparnisse, die in Netzausbau, Pensionen und Rückkäufe fließen sollen. Kurzfristig bleibt churn und ein aktiver Markt zu beobachten; mittelfristig stärkt die Strategie Wachstums‑ und Cash‑Profile für Aktionäre.
AT&T — Mizuho Technology Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
[indiscernible] I think I found [indiscernible] safe harbor. It's the perfect way to start this conference. So many of the business panel we're going to hear about the next few days are really [indiscernible]. We'll get into that. But I think [indiscernible] the safe harbor [indiscernible].
Sure thing. If you go into our website, the safe harbor statements on our website [indiscernible] are forward-looking [indiscernible].
Perfect. Well, as I said, Pascal is the Senior EVP and Chief Financial Officer of AT&T, where he's been in since 2021. He has really spearheaded a significant cost transformation effort to strengthen the balance sheet and really [indiscernible] investment of both 5G and fiber. And really this approach by AT&T, I believe, [indiscernible] infrastructure in that both on the wire and wireless side of the business. So let's get started and jump right into it.
You all have done an amazing job deleveraging in the past few years. You've already achieved your stated goal of 2.5x in the first quarter, and you've indicated a buyback would be part of the second quarter. Do you have to have an intent to kind of balance the capital allocation priorities now that you've achieved the [ leverage permit ]?
It's true [indiscernible]. We're just so incredibly proud of [indiscernible]. When I look out the next 7 to 8 [indiscernible], there are certain things that I know would be true. One, [indiscernible]. Two, fiber is the very best [indiscernible]. Today, we are at [indiscernible]. And next 5 years, we expect to add [indiscernible]. Over the next few years, [indiscernible] each and every year. And in addition to that, [indiscernible]. So we will invest in the future as well as delivering attractive returns to our shareholders [indiscernible] is about [ $200 million ] [indiscernible] [ $8 billion ] a year in maintenance plus [ $10 billion ] [indiscernible]. Super incredibly proud of the position we're in. [indiscernible].
[indiscernible] see all the great work that you have in the last 5 years under your watch. I want to really hone into an exciting transaction that was announced by [indiscernible], that being the AT&T and Lumen transaction. With this transaction, you -- kind of referring to my notes here, you get 4 million additional passings, 1 million additional fiber subs. And as you alluded to, you're going to get to 60 million homes passed with fiber by the end of 2030.
And these are not insignificant markets, in fact, Portland, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Seattle, the list goes on. Can you [ tell ] if this deal from your seat was really a defensive move or an offensive move? You're already the largest fiber-to-the-home player, talk about a little bit of a land grab, but curious as to your thoughts there because things are changing quickly around you.
Yes. To me, this is an opportunity to -- we saw an opportunity with the Lumen consumer assets to lean into our strategy and to add to it. We've made no secret we like fiber. We manage it very well. And here, we're a set of assets in 11 states that we don't do business in currently that we don't have broadband infrastructure. So this gave us a foothold in those states. Currently, we're going to get 4 million-plus fiber passings at closing. And importantly, it's going to come with a build engine that allows us to expand in those states.
Currently, the penetration for -- of that fiber footprint that was acquired is about 25%. We see no reason why, with our distribution network and additional investments, we can't get it to 40%. Also in the markets that we're operating in that Lumen operates in, we're under-penetrated in wireless. And so the ability to take up our wireless penetration, where we have fiber in our own footprint, we see about 500 basis points of incremental wireless share. And we are well under our average penetration in the Lumen market.
So we think it's -- we have an enormous wireless opportunity on top of being able to more fully penetrate the existing build. And we expect to significantly increase the passings in that footprint over the next several years. So all in all, we think it's a great transaction for us, and we're incredibly excited.
And for -- with that also, so if I'm hearing you correctly, not only greater penetration, higher ARPU, lower churn, obviously, that math is an attractive one for any CFO, I would think.
Absolutely.
That's what you're seeing. The wireline penetration, you mentioned this, if I'm right, the math of your penetration in your fiber markets, legacy AT&T is about 40%. And Lumen is -- do I have that right? You said...
25%.
25%. So it does offer a tremendous opportunity. How do you expect to approach this for the wireless subs? I mean what is the targeted push?
Yes, even -- before even commenting on our 40% penetration, we're at, on average, 40% across our footprint. But remember, much of our build has happened over the last 4 years. So by definition, we are not yet at full scale in those markets. So we are incredibly excited about our ability to continue to add to up the penetration in our own market.
In terms of the wireless opportunity, when -- simply put, when we have an opportunity in the Lumen markets to be able to take a great fiber product and bundle it with our wireless, our belief is that we will be able to get higher than our fair share. We will add distribution. We will -- incremental distribution beyond what we already have in the market, not only for fiber, but for wireless as well. And we think those 2 things will allow us to really up the amount of penetration that we have in the Lumen markets.
Definitely. And that -- I mean you've seen evidence of that really where -- for both you and Verizon, where you have both the wired and wireless people come.
Absolutely. Fiber product is just a superior product. It works really well. And in many of the markets we go into, the consumers didn't really have a choice, a viable competitor. And having a viable competitor with a better product and oftentimes at a slightly lower price point, it's a win-win.
Yes. Part of the transaction announcement, and I know there's limits to what you can say here, but you did announce that a potential partner will be coming, a private capital partner here. And while I understand you can't comment on where those discussions are, who it involves, but I just wanted to get your thoughts as to why you would prefer an equity partner versus keeping it on balance sheet with this Lumen transaction. Just some thoughts there.
Sure thing. We're currently spending $22 billion a year in capital. And we've guided that, that is our expectations through 2027. That's at the top of the industry. An important part of the Lumen acquisition is that we're going to expand upon their existing footprint. And we would have to up our capital, which would obviously impact free cash flows.
In our view, this allows us to still get access to an expanded footprint while, at the same time, continuing to deliver attractive returns that we've committed to our shareholders and still manage within the capital envelope we guided to investors. So we think this is a great way to allow us to continue to tick off all our priorities and, at the same time, get access to a really attractive footprint with great demographics that candidly we -- where we think we can, with our distribution, really penetrate and deliver attractive returns for our owners.
And on the private capital side, you clearly have experience with that with GigaPower where you partnered with BlackRock. Can you talk a little bit about maybe some lessons learned there and why, if it did contribute, that this is an approach you would want to take with Lumen?
Sure thing. With GigaPower, here's what I would say, we're really happy with our partnership with BlackRock. It's very collaborative, and we're incredibly pleased with that. Also, one of the things we wanted to prove to ourselves with GigaPower was the ability to go outside of our traditional footprint and have the AT&T brand perform. And while it's still relatively early days, we have seen that the performance of AT&T Fiber coming from GigaPower is performing comparably to that of the fiber built in our own network. So our brand hunts in those markets. So again, another proof point.
And when I look at it all in, the amount of the returns that I get through the JV, through a JV structure, because the amount of leverage you could put on it, which is higher than what we would have at AT&T, the overall returns are very comparable. So to me, it's a great way to strike the right balance, expand the pool of fiber customers that we're going after and, at the same time, use some of our existing excess capital to return to shareholders.
And we were talking in the breakout room, there is kind of a land grab right now. I mean, to your point, to be able to take on that leverage and do it, really put the pedal to the metal, does that -- would you agree with that view? Because it's -- time seems of the essence. If -- some reports would indicate that between you and Verizon, pro forma for your 2 outstanding deals control 75% of the fiber market. I mean, to be able to kind of get there and build it first, would you agree with that thought?
Yes. We've said this publicly, when we look out by the end of the decade, we expect that all the economic -- virtually all the economically viable fiber locations, somebody will stake a claim to it. A lot of it will come through our own organic build. Some of it will come through GigaPower JV. And hopefully, some of it comes through this Lumen transaction once it gets approved by the regulators.
So all of that, we think it's really important that we act with purpose and really stay focused and use our capital to stake a claim to those parts of the country that we think are economically attractive because this opportunity will not exist a decade from now. And it's -- we think we're really good at it. And our build gets more efficient. The supply contracts we have puts us at an advantage vis-à-vis others. And our goal is to -- we've mapped out where we want to go, and let's go at it. Let's go get it.
That's great. So sticking with the financial side of this deal, you were very clear, and I think The Street very much appreciated this, that you continue to expect to operate within your leverage ratio of 2.5 net leverage following Lumen. Following this deal and assuming a partner does come along because it does sound like those conversations are going well, if I'm reading the tea leaves here.
We really haven't engaged in earnest with a -- to try getting a partner. But my knowledge of the marketplace and the amount of capital that is available for this, for infrastructure, there is no doubt in my mind that we're going to be able to find a partner and we'll be able to strike a good deal for AT&T shareholders.
Great. And then how, if that comes to fruition, how would that impact the $10 billion in incremental financial flexibility you've spoken about in the past?
Sure thing. Here, just to level set, the Lumen transaction was -- the overall price was about $5.75 billion. We are executing the transaction on our own. So upon close, of the $10 billion of financial flexibility that we had outlined at our Investor Day for the next 3 years, the $5.75 billion comes out of that. Importantly, when we find a partner and we determine the appropriate capital structure for the JV, that will serve to -- as a capital recoupment for AT&T. So some of it is going to come from levering up the JV. Some of it is going to come from the equity provided by our partner. And so all in all, I would expect that there remains a meaningful portion of the $10 billion even after this transaction and the second step.
And look, this is a business as we grow more each year, our capacity will increase. So one of the reasons why we waited so long before starting to buy back shares and some even argue that, look, 2.5x for a business our size with this type of infrastructure, maybe a little low, but we wanted to be in this point because it gives us ample flexibility to go out and do a transaction like Lumen while not disturbing the capital returns we've promised to shareholders. And that's where we wanted to be. This -- to the point you made earlier, Jennifer, this is a time where you don't know where opportunities will come from, and you want to be in a position to take advantage of that.
And it seems like your balance sheet is well positioned to do that.
It is. We are incredibly proud of the work that's been done.
So shifting to the other side of your business, we've talked a lot about what I'd call the wired side, shifting to wireless. Everyone talks about spectrum as being the lifeblood of the wireless network. John Stankey and others at AT&T have been very vocal about the need for more spectrum coming from this government. And it's clearly, I would say, a priority for the Trump administration. He's talked publicly about freeing up 600 megahertz of spectrum.
But I guess my question is, that's not easy. I mean there's the Department of Defense, et cetera, et cetera. And in the absence of new spectrum coming from the government, you seem to be doing a lot in the 3.45 acquisition side, a few deals have been announced, namely around UScellular. If you look where you need more spectrum, is it really in the mid-band area? Or how do you think about the spectrum puzzle?
I take a step back, when I took the role almost 5 years ago now, we were concerned about the spectrum position. But since then, we've spent a lot investing in spectrum. And as we're deploying the spectrum that we acquired, that spectrum propagates much more efficiently than we even thought. And so our network, there is no immediate need for spectrum. But we run this business not for the next 5 years, we run it for decades to come.
So whenever a spectrum becomes available, it is something that we would always look at. And in many -- in most cases, when spectrum becomes available, you get a return in a couple of ways. One, the coverage and capacity that you add to your network, it will displace a good bit of that, so reducing your capital intensity. Two, fixed wireless is a product that many consumers see as really a good product for them. And additional spectrum allows you to increase then the amount of fixed wireless subscribers you have on your service.
So all in all, it's simply an ROI, and we would look at it if the government makes more spectrum available. And we think it's a good thing long term for the industry to have more spectrum. But there is no pressing need that I feel like we have to go out and acquire spectrum in the next 12, 24, even 36 months.
Got it. Okay. Sticking with wireless, bigger picture, as we've talked about, you have the largest fiber footprint in the U.S. and your 5G network covers, I think, more square miles than any of your peers. How are you kind of leaning into the converged services? I mean, can you explain how the AT&T Guarantee really helps drive that convergence strategy?
Sure thing. The AT&T Guarantee is this: we want, when somebody does business with AT&T, for them to know, one, if they have a technical issue because of something that we did, we're going to make it right by proactively giving them a credit. Two, if somebody calls in for technical assistance, we're going to either answer within 5 minutes or agree to give you a call back. And if we don't do that, we will give you a benefit.
Three, we're going to give you the best deals that we have, whether you are an existing customer or a new customer, and it doesn't have to be with the highest price plan. And we believe having both a wireless and a fiber network where you control the experience, we are in a position to honor those guarantees and to be -- really to increase the affinity for our services.
And you can't give a guarantee if you don't control both networks. And we spent a lot of time doing a lot of work, making sure we're in a position to deliver that guarantee. And the early reaction has been positive. As I look ahead, I mean fiber is such a great product. If somebody has a great experience with fiber, why wouldn't they try our wireless product?
Yes. It kind of sells itself if there's...
And our research has shown that the vast majority of people don't want -- they want connectivity. They want fixed, they want mobile connectivity, and they'd rather deal with one company as opposed to 2. So if you have great products, great service through the AT&T Guarantee, why would somebody want to deal with multiple carriers? And again, these are long-term bets we are making, and we feel that the reaction we are getting is really positive.
It is a competitive market, sticking with wireless here. And I'm curious as to your thoughts, I mean, about the current state of this competition. Cable has been somewhat of a loss leader in pricing. It feels like that is ramping up, especially as you see some of these cable brothers join forces. What gives you the confidence you can, on the wireless side, achieve the guidance when there is kind of some cowboy behavior around you?
The wireless industry has been competitive for a very long time. Cable has gained share for the last several years vis-à-vis wireless. I look at our performance during that time frame and I think here's what I look at: every company defines a subscriber slightly differently. If I give you a line for free, is that a sub? If I migrate from one tier service to another, is that a subscriber? We don't count either of those as subscribers.
What I look at is when I look at how much wireless service revenue is growing in the industry, the last several years, we have garnered the most share of service revenue growth when you strip out fixed wireless and you look at it pure. That's how we know we are doing well. And our services are resonating and customers are paying for our services. When it's all said and done, if it's not translating to service revenue, it's really -- it can be viewed as empty calories.
That's how we look at it, and that's why we've been really disciplined in how we approach the market and how we count subscribers because ultimately, it's about service revenue. And so yes, the wireless industry is competitive, no doubt about it. But we know how to compete. We think through the advantage of convergence, it gives us another leg up. We have a great network. And we're confident that with a great network, great products, we can compete effectively just as we have been in the last several years.
And on the wired side, too, I mentioned cable companies joining arms, that obviously being Charter and Cox. Do you see any -- cable has kind of been quiet on the wired side. I mean they've had a lot of share before telecom, including AT&T, really leaned into the fiber deep architecture. Do you see, with the cable competition, that competitive side changing? And are you underwriting that risk?
Here is -- cable for years, in many cases, has operated as a monopoly. There hasn't really been competition. There hasn't been choice. So competition makes you better. I'm really confident when we bring our fiber product to a market, we're going to effectively compete with cable. It's a better product at a lower price point. And there is no doubt in my mind we can compete, and we're going to continue to get more and more opportunities to do so.
And if math is right, that would suggest that's been happening since the second quarter of '22, I believe, when cable -- I mean, when telecom carriers have really leaned into fiber.
Yes. The other thing, too, is, look, because there has been no competition, when you start to get attacked not only with fiber, but on the lower end fixed wireless, it's game on. So I think that what is happening now is for the first time, the cable companies have to compete against others that are providing alternative products.
Yes. So I want to just -- before we open it up to questions, 2 kind of macro questions. Well, luckily, you're not expected to have the direct impact of tariffs. It has created uncertainty just in general. And you do have a unique front-row seat into economic spending patterns of the consumer. Are you seeing any kind of "Danger, Will Robinson!" type of concerns? Many in the audience might not even know what that means.
Oh, I do. I do.
But I wonder, I mean, are you seeing any -- because you guys will be the first to see it. I mean I remember being an analyst and other CEOs and CFOs at AT&T calling out weakness well before everyone else saw it.
Yes. First, on the tariffs, here's what we have said: look, fortunately, we are a domestic-based company. And yes, we do have some exposure. Much of the network equipment comes from different parts of Asia. So there will be some impact there. Also, the phones that we resell, there will be some impact now. The phones, they are Apple, Samsung, others, and they set the price they determine. We provide a subsidy. I wouldn't imagine that the subsidy is going to change meaningfully as a result of the tariffs.
In terms of the hardware, it will be an impact, but something that we think we can manage. When I think about our capital spend, the vast majority of our capital spend is labor. While we spend on equipment, the vast majority of it is labor. So the exposure, we've described as we can manage through it. And especially, we reiterated our guidance this year. We feel like whatever the ultimate outcome, we can manage through it.
In terms of the impact to consumers, say, the consumer remains healthy.
Not seen.
Credit and collections, very solid. Demand is solid. In fact, we talked about on our earnings call, we are seeing -- we saw higher activity levels late Q1 into Q2. We think in part, there is some consumers trying to get ahead of the tariffs. So it may be a pull forward from second half. But so far, there hasn't been meaningful impact.
Now one of the things I look at is over the years, our services have become more and more essential. And I'm not sure we'd be the first to see it right now. Given how critical the services are, I think there are a lot of things consumers would cut back on before they...
It's ironic because you think in past weaknesses, it always the talking point was cable will be the last bill you don't pay. But really, it is your wireless network now or your connection. And I guess the final question I have is what I'd call the longer-term crystal ball question. I'm curious like as you look at the end of the decade, what you see as your network looking like, your operating leverage looking like and, I guess, your overall growth profile?
You take a step back, at the end of the decade, we'll be largely done with our fiber build. That's a meaningful portion of our capital budget. We'll be largely out of copper. Copper is -- think landlines, legacy DSL, we still have a lot of that, that we are decommissioning and getting out of our network. It comes with a $6 billion cost base. We'll be largely out of that. We're going to have a scaled fiber network. Our wireless modernization will be done.
So I look at a company that will have the largest fiber network in the country, the largest, most modern wireless network in the country and will not have the headwinds of legacy declines that we are going through today. And you all are really smart, you understand what the profile of that could look like. And so I think it is an incredibly exciting time for AT&T and its shareholders.
Right. Well, terrific. Thank you, Pascal. We're going to turn it over to questions. I know we have mics, so if anyone has questions. And I will say you must speak at a lot of conferences, but I don't know that any circles you in the AT&T blue as we have today. Any questions? No? I see one in the back here. Let's just get you a mic. Okay, perfect.
My name is [ Anand ]. I have a question regarding your strategy is more focused on fiber. How do you view alternate connectivity strategies like Starlink, who are based on satellite? And how does the fiber play in alongside or in response to that alternate connectivity strategy?
Sure thing. When I think about fixed broadband today and our wireless network, rough math, you probably get -- you cover 90% plus of the U.S. population. And so the TAM -- those products are incredibly efficient. They work better and more efficient than satellite. The physics of it all makes that very clear. So the question really becomes who serves that -- the remainder of the U.S. population because we still have a lot of people, far too many that aren't served. And we think satellite is a fine solution in that regard.
And our view is we would love for there to be a vibrant satellite market that where we can buy services and allow customers to ride on our network and satellite no different than international roaming. So somebody goes to a national park and we don't have coverage, they get access to satellite coverage, and we pay the satellite provider. And in an ideal world, there will be multiple providers such that we can -- the price -- the ultimate price to consumers is really attractive.
Okay. Any more questions? Pascal, like I said in the beginning, this is like the perfect way to start this conference because I think as we hear about these other models emerging, they're emerging on the networks you and your peers are creating. So thank you so much for being here and opening this conference.
Thank you very much.
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AT&T — Mizuho Technology Conference 2025
AT&T — Mizuho Technology Conference 2025
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: AT&T stellt die Lumen‑Consumer‑Übernahme (≈$5,75 Mrd., ~4 Mio. zusätzliche Fiber‑"passings") als gezielten Schritt zur Beschleunigung der Glasfaser‑Expansion dar; Ziel: ~60 Mio. Haushalte bis 2030. Kapitaldisziplin bleibt: Nettoverschuldung bei ~2,5x, geplante Partner‑JV zur Begrenzung eigener Mittel.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Reichweite: Die Transaktion liefert sofortige Präsenz in 11 neuen Bundesstaaten und eine Plattform zum weiteren Ausbau der Passings.
- Penetration: Akquirierte Fußabdrücke weisen ~25% Penetration auf; AT&T zielt auf ~40% bei besserer Distribution und erwartet dadurch höhere ARPU und geringeren Churn.
- Konvergenz: Bündel aus Fiber und Wireless soll Cross‑Sell liefern (Management nennt ~500 Basispunkte zusätzliche Wireless‑Penetration in diesen Märkten).
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Finanzen: Der Kaufpreis von ~$5,75 Mrd. reduziert die ursprünglich genannten $10 Mrd. finanzieller Flexibilität anteilig; ein Equity‑Partner/JV soll Kapitalrückfluss und Hebel ermöglichen.
- CapEx: Kein Abweichen von der bisherigen CapEx‑Ansage: rund $22 Mrd. p.a. bis 2027.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Satellit: Zu Starlink/Alternativen: Management sieht Satellit als ergänzende Lösung für schwer erreichbare Gebiete und potenziellen Wholesale‑Zulieferer, kein Ersatz für Glasfaser.
- Spectrum: Keine akute Dringlichkeit für zusätzliche Spectrum‑Akquisitionen in den nächsten 12–36 Monaten; opportunistisches Vorgehen bei Verfügbarkeit.
- Makro/Tarife: Verbraucherstellung stabil; mögliche Zölle auf Hardware werden als beherrschbar bezeichnet, kein Verschieben der Guidance.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Impakt: Die Lumen‑Akquisition beschleunigt AT&Ts Fiber‑Skalierung und schafft Cross‑Sell‑Upside, ohne die zugesagte Kapitaldisziplin zu verletzen—vorausgesetzt JV‑Partner und regulatorische Genehmigungen fallen günstig aus. Anleger sollten JV‑Struktur, endgültige Kapitalrückflüsse und regulatorische Risiken beobachten.
Finanzdaten von AT&T
Umsatz
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Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 126.528 126.528 |
3 %
3 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 51.353 51.353 |
4 %
4 %
41 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 75.175 75.175 |
2 %
2 %
59 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 29.121 29.121 |
2 %
2 %
23 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 46.054 46.054 |
2 %
2 %
36 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 20.662 20.662 |
0 %
0 %
16 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 25.392 25.392 |
4 %
4 %
20 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 21.287 21.287 |
81 %
81 %
17 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
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Firmenprofil
AT&T, Inc. ist eine Holdinggesellschaft, die sich mit der Bereitstellung von Telekommunikationsmedien und Technologiedienstleistungen beschäftigt. Sie ist in den folgenden Segmenten tätig: Kommunikation, WarnerMedia, Lateinamerika und Xandr. Das Segment Communications erbringt Dienstleistungen für Unternehmen und Verbraucher in den USA oder in US-Territorien sowie für Unternehmen weltweit. Das Segment WarnerMedia entwickelt, produziert und vertreibt Spielfilme, Fernsehen, Spiele und andere Inhalte in verschiedenen physischen und digitalen Formaten. Das Segment Lateinamerika bietet Unterhaltungs- und Mobilfunkdienste ausserhalb der USA an. Das Segment Xandar bietet Werbedienstleistungen an. Das Unternehmen wurde 1983 gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Dallas, TX.
aktien.guide Premium
| Hauptsitz | USA |
| CEO | Mr. Stankey |
| Mitarbeiter | 133.030 |
| Gegründet | 1983 |
| Webseite | www.att.com |


