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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 16,66 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 15,65 Mrd. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 16,66 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 16,52 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 18,60 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 15,65 Mrd. $
Enterprise Value = 18,60 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 16,52 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Tractor Supply Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
37 Analysten haben eine Tractor Supply Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
37 Analysten haben eine Tractor Supply Prognose abgegeben:
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Tractor Supply — 2026 Baird Global Consumer
1. Question Answer
I'm Peter Benedict, Senior Retail/Consumer Products and Services Analyst at Baird. I want to be the first to welcome you all to the 2026 Consumer, Technology & Services Conference.
Really pleased to be kicking things off here with Tractor Supply. Leading rural lifestyle retailer in the U.S. A little more than 2,300 stores currently. They also have 200 or so Petsense locations. Their sales are expected to exceed around $15 billion this year. And the stock carries a market cap of just under $17 billion.
With us today, we have CEO, Hal Lawton; CFO, Kurt Barton; and of course, Mary Winn Pilkington, who heads up the IR effort, she's here as well.
I think the guys are going to have some prepared remarks, then we'll do some Q&A. If you have a question, we can try to weave it in, just e-mail [email protected], I'll do my best. And there will be a breakout session afterwards if you have questions that haven't been addressed.
So with that, I'll turn it over to Hal.
Great. Thanks, Peter. Good to see everybody this morning. Thanks for joining us.
Just a couple of opening remarks. As Peter mentioned, Tractor Supply, now over 2,400 stores in the United States, farm and ranch, and then a couple of hundred Petsense stores. This is a business that's 88-plus years old now, has a track record of navigating different cycles and very resilient business model, one that has incredible strength and loyalty with our core customer, and then continues to expand our total addressable market.
Over the last several years, a handful of years, we've made some notable investments and some strategic initiatives. New stores have always been a hallmark of Tractor Supply. Over the last handful of years, we've remodeled nearly half of our stores and made incremental investments in areas like digital and in our final-mile delivery program. And those have been very successful and created significant shareholder value creation.
All that said, our performance in the last couple of quarters in particular has been less than what we would have aspired to deliver. That's primarily due to softer end markets that we participate in, our total addressable market. 40% of our total addressable market is farm and ranch, another 20% is pet, another 20% is home improvement. All 4 of those sectors are soft and under some kind of pressure relative to their historic norms, and that's created some weakness in our business.
That said, we're not sitting still and we're taking some significant action. We can provide some further updates on that today. We provided some of those updates on our most recent earnings call. Namely, those 2 major areas of kind of immediate actions we've been taking have been around reaccelerating our pet business and also further establishing our price/value competitive advantage in the market. And we've been navigating in those 2 areas and putting significant energy and action against over the last few months, and look forward to sharing some of those updates on that.
But again, just stepping back, Tractor Supply, 88-plus year-old business, a hallmark of navigating a variety of different cycles. Very resilient business model. And pleased to be here today to talk with you.
Peter, I'll just add on to some of Hal's comments. I thought I'd hit 3 things, and I think all 3 of them are very focused on not only for us but for the conference. I'll hit a little bit on the operating environment today; the consumer, and particularly the rural consumer; and then in our business, what's our focus in the near term.
I'll start by saying, very consistent with our typical approach with your conference, we're not coming in providing intra-quarter business update, but our comments are very purposeful to be more reflective of the broader consumer and customer, the broader retail market. And I'll start with the operating environment.
No doubt the operating environment today is very different and a bit more cautious than going into the year for most companies, and Tractor Supply is inclusive of that. When you think about the operating environment today with global conflict, higher fuel prices, higher interest rates -- longer, higher interest rates, and even choppy and much less ideal weather conditions in the environment. So our operating environment is a bit more difficult and cautious than we saw going into this market.
Take that on to the customer and the consumer, we're seeing very much the same thing that most retailers are saying. We're seeing a consumer that's very highly value-focused, being much more deliberate, discerning in their spend, particularly in the discretionary side of the business, seasonal or big ticket purchases. You see customers being much more discerning, planned and deliberate on that. Focused on value.
Much more uncertainty on the consumer on the inflation at this point. When we see not only their spending and where they choose to spend in their wallet, but even the surveys that we pulse in with our own customers, our customers are telling us even greater percentage of the decision-making on the purchasing is impacted by inflation. In the most recent survey that we've given, fuel has now become the highest level inflationary pressure that they're telling us impacting their decision.
And when you think about fuel, while it impacts most businesses, all retailers, there's a bit of uniqueness to the rural customer. The average rural consumer will drive, as an example, 400 miles on average a week. That's about 30% more than a suburban or urban customer. Even more, further specific with Tractor Supply, 2/3 of our customers tell us they own 1 truck -- or at least 1 truck, 25% of them is a diesel truck. And in this environment where fuel prices are higher as you watch diesel prices have accelerated higher year-over-year than even gasoline prices. And so for our customer, that's about $50 a week more of inflation, almost $1,500 a year on average that's pressuring them at this point.
So our consumer has definitely been, our customer has definitely been resilient over the years in inflationary environments, but certainly recognizing the pressure that's on the business. And we see that. We still see a strong, actively engaged customer on buying needs-based items, continue to see growth in the queue and the consumables, while the discretionaries underspend. So with our customer and for even our business, we're going to continue to monitor the fuel cost as that can impact not only their decision-making but even our input costs with higher freight costs as well.
With that said, the consumer, our customer, the exciting thing and what we watch often for the health of the business, our customer continues to be engaged in the lifestyle and continues to be engaged with Tractor Supply. The customer shopping patterns, the engagement and loyalty of the lifestyle on Tractor Supply continues to be strong. Retention continues to be solid. We certainly see some of the impact on either what they're spending or the frequency of the spend, but it's great to see those Neighbor's Club members and those customers continue to shop with Tractor Supply.
Maybe I'll just end by saying our focus right now, and certainly in these environments, our focus is controlling what we can control. With the macro pressures, our team is very focused on executing strong, driving value to the customers. In these environments, the team does an excellent job, and we're doing it right now to switch and pivot to value drivers for the consumer and driving the needs-based business. Inventory management and cost control are key.
Investing and then our capital allocation. I'll just end with saying we're going to continue to invest, and you'll see that not only in the near term but long term, investing for the things that give us a strong competitive position. Those items are areas that are really important to drive value and convenience. So investing in digital, investing in final mile, final mile unlocking a number of revenue stream opportunities. Localization infusion, and certainly, new store economics, which are really strong, we'll continue to invest in new stores. These are the things that are helping us offset some of these macro pressures, and so we're going to continue to lean on those.
As far as that capital allocation, we're going to continue to invest in one of the best economic parts of the business, which is new stores. Our balance sheet is strong. It gives us the opportunity to be nimble but yet disciplined on where we're going to invest, but nimble to be able to make the investments in different areas of the business. And that includes capital allocation on shareholder return. We could be nimble and lean heavier on or adjust in share repurchases. So we've got all those opportunities with a healthy balance sheet.
And for the long term, I'll just remind you that a differentiator for Tractor Supply is we have a very resilient, loyal customer base. We have a needs-based business that buoys us in environments like this where there's pressure on discretionary. And we have a still growing opportunity to gain market share in rural America. And we're excited about the long term. So those are some of the thoughts.
No, that's great. That's -- look, you're addressing a lot of the current issues that are out there, which is great. And I want to take a step back, we're going to dig into a lot of what you guys just kind of touched on, but I just want to take a little bit of a step back because you do operate in a very unique market relative to most retailers. You've got about a 7% to 8% market share position, I think, when you think across the entirety of the addressable market.
Maybe talk about some of the key secular themes that are driving kind of your end markets, where they sit right now, what's working, what's not working from a secular standpoint, and what do you think kind of an underlying growth rate should be for this kind of -- this TAM that you guys go after.
Yes, great. Thanks for the question, Peter. I referenced our total addressable market earlier. Our TAM is over a couple of hundred billion dollars in size. We shared that at our most recent investor conference in the winter of 2024, for those who want to go back and look at that. And in that investor presentation, we had a pie chart and it showed the breakdown of our TAM by sector. And I referenced it earlier.
About 40% of our TAM is farm and ranch. That's kind of our historic core market base. Another 20% is pets. Another 20% roughly is home improvement. And then you've got the remaining 20% across a variety of smaller categories related to our business and markets, things like clothing, et cetera.
If you think about those first 3 sectors that I mentioned, I'll first start with pet because that one is very well known and documented. That sector has been soft for the better part of 2 years and is projected to continue to be soft this year as well, with some -- due to reduction, in particular, in dog population across the country and kind of the impact that has on the business. That sector has been kind of flat to negative really for the last 1 to 2 years, particularly on the goods side of things.
The second would then be home improvement. Again, that will -- that kind of sector, very well documented, there were some earnings reports last week, I believe it was, or 2 weeks ago, that just came out talking about that sector. It's roughly flattish as well.
And then you think about farm and ranch, that may be one that folks are in this room lesser exposed to. But again, you can get credit card data on the farm and ranch sector, you can pull Placer data on the farm and ranch sector. We continue to outperform in that sector, but that sector is flat to negative as well right now.
So when you take those 3 sectors and you put them together, that's 80% of our end markets that are kind of soft and kind of weak relative to historic times. Now on historic, typically, our sector is an at-or-above GDP growth sector. And then we have been a share gainer in the context of that. We continue to be a share gainer right now in just more of a softer and weaker environment.
But structurally, it's a very sound market. It's consumables based, it's usable based, it's edible based. It's needs, it's essential products. And it's an end market that's shown that it's had strength for the last 40-plus years. And we we're confident it will continue to be that way and that we'll continue to take share in it.
Yes. I mean you're a dominant player when you think about the farm and ranch set. But you talk about pet, you talk about home improvement. Of course, there's all sorts of other companies out there that come to mind. Maybe talk about the competitive set that you guys think about, both the brick-and-mortar based folks, but also the digital folks. How has that evolved over the last several years? How do you see yourself fitting in from a competitive standpoint?
Yes. I think on the competitive front, the way I think about retail now is much like it was just pre-COVID. If you think about farm and ranch, that end market we continue to take significant share in. We've got a number of competitive advantages relative to that -- to our competition around scale with our manufacturers, supply chain, digital, our Neighbor's Club, et cetera. We're outgrowing the farm and ranch market kind of week-to-week, month-to-month by usually 2 to 3 points of overall growth. And so continue to take share there, and fully expect to do so as we move forward and have historically always taken share in that market.
And then if you think about home improvement, that market has been reasonably stable. There's not been significant share going back and forth in that market. And I think we continue to do well there. We anchor hard in -- on the garden side, in riding lawn mowers. We sell the largest number of riding lawn mowers in the United States each year. So that's an anchor for us and it will continue to be. Obviously, we have a strong tools and hardware business that's anchored in truck, as Kurt talked about earlier. If you're in our business, you'd say, "Oh, this feels like an Ace Hardware, but a little heavier, a little harder, a little more truck oriented." That sector, I think the competitive environment is very stable.
And then in pet, it's a sector that's very competitive and one that, as we all know, is increasingly shifting to online. We've got to continue to be very competitive there, one that's increasingly shifting to services. We just made an acquisition that I think positions our ecosystem better in that area of the business.
And it's -- more broadly, if I just sort of step back, I think retail is similar to 2018 and 2019, where it's consolidating. You see, particularly with gas prices where they are, people taking -- visiting less number of retailers, consolidating their trips across those. We are a consolidating retailer. We sell a lifestyle. We don't fill a specific category. So that fares well for us. But we've got to make sure we fight hard for that trip.
Yes. And sticking with the companion animal, kind of pet business, what's -- there's a macro issue there, I think we appreciate, but what's like the self-diagnosis that you guys have done as you look at maybe how you've been merchandising, you've been approaching that category? Are there changes that you're making to try to kind of maybe bend the curve before the sector turns?
Yes. If I were to step back and just talk about pet for a minute, kind of maybe break it into 2 buckets of things: one, dog/cat and then goods versus services. So on dog and cat, the dog population peaked in 2023, and then it had a step down into 2024, had a step down into 2025 and is expected to step down again here into -- in 2026. It's been primarily second dogs that haven't been replaced, or singular dogs, of course, when they pass away as well, but mostly second dogs and larger dogs.
And by contrast though, the cat population has been going up during that time. So you're seeing kind of a crossing of those 2 groups in terms of their overall growth rate. In our business at Tractor Supply, we are 80% dog, 20% cat. By contrast, the industry is 60% dog, 40% cat. So we have a mix headwind there, in addition to, just in general, a dog headwind in the market.
The second thing I'll call out is goods versus services. If you look at pet and kind of across most sector experts right now, it is a flat to maybe modestly up business, call it, like a flat to plus 1%. But the services side of it is what's leading it up, call it, plus 5% to plus 10%. And then the goods side is negative, call it, like negative 1%, negative 2%. So if you're in grooming or if you're in vet services, those sorts of things, those are the ones that are growing in the high single digit still. But the goods side of it because, one, you don't have new dogs coming onto the market as much as there were 3 or 4 years ago, so all the hardline side of it that goes along with a new dog is depressed. And then obviously, if you have lesser dogs in the market, there's lesser food being bought.
And then the third thing I'll bring up is, in the context of food, we've seen a big shift over the last 7, 8 years out of dry food, kibble, into fresh food, which is now nearly 10% of the business. So those are kind of the 3 main factors I would say that everyone in the pet industry is navigating.
And then as it relates to us, what are some of the actions we're taking? So first off, on the dog/cat piece, we are shifting our space and our stores more to cat so that we've got a square footage that's reflective of the market more so. So we're pivoting there, and you'll hear more about our cat expansions.
On the dog side, we've got several things that are going on over the next 6 weeks. We'll reset 70-ish percent of our dog area in the store. We'll be redoing the entire dog feed area. We'll be redoing the entire snack and treats area as well as the wellness area. On the snack and treats area, you'll see much more health and wellness, protein, those sorts of things building in. Similarly, animals are -- people are feeding their animals healthier foods and diets just like they are -- just like we are ourselves.
You also -- we also are rolling out Freshpet. So we now have Freshpet in over 250 stores. That's been complete. We talked about that on our earnings call, that that will be done by the end of this quarter. That is complete already. And then we'll be rolling it out to the better part of another 500 stores by year-end. So working to embrace those trends, whether it's on fresh, whether it's on cat, whether it's on the wellness side inside of dog.
And then lastly, we just acquired VIP Petcare. This is a business we've worked closely with for the last 15 to 20 years. They do mobile pet clinics. We see over 1 million customers a year with VIP Petcare. And we have 700, 800 stores remaining that we can expand it into. So there's upside on the growth there.
And the services sector is an area, as I mentioned earlier, that's high-single-digit growth in dogs. So it gives us an avenue to play in that more. And then also, there's a variety of synergies on the back end, I can talk about later, in terms of connecting to the Allivet business that we acquired 1.5 years ago or connecting into our Neighbor's Club business and having some loyalty over time there, improve engagement. So we're very excited about that acquisition as well.
But to your point, Peter, we're not standing still. We're very conscious of what the trends are, investing into those trends to reaccelerate our pet business.
And another initiative that you guys have been front-footed on is Direct Sales, which is kind of a maybe an incremental TAM that you kind of outlined a year or 2 ago. Talk about what that means, why Tractor Supply has the right to win with Direct Sales, and just a time frame to kind of start to see that really impact the P&L?
Yes. We talked about this also at our investor conference 1.5 years ago, so I'll reference it and folks can pull some of those slides if they want. But there's 5 core customer segments that Tractor Supply serves. On the kind of more fringe side, we have this customer segment called country dabbler. Then you've got our pet enthusiasts. And then in our core, you've got a backyard homesteader and a hobby farmer. And those are our core customers.
And then kind of our B2B, that's on the left-hand side of that, is big barn. And that is over a $10 billion TAM. It is an area that we've underserved historically because they're more business oriented. And when they're more business oriented, time is money and they require some different go-to-market approaches than what we've historically done.
Namely, those 2 kind of go-to-market approaches, the first is delivery. You've got to be able to get the product out to their barns, their ranches, their farms. And you've got to be able to not only get it to the driveway, but you've got to be able to get it into the barn or you've got to be able to get it into the stable. That's what we're building out in final mile. We are seeing a significant amount of success with that.
Our big barn customer growth has been significant over the last 12 to 18 months. And Direct Sales, which I'll get to in a minute, has been a big piece of that. But what's been a even bigger piece as we're getting into it is the unlocking of delivery and being able to get the products that our customers want and the quantities they want at the time and in the location they want, on the big barn customer. And think of this as a bit like our Pro strategy, for those who hear about it a lot in home improvement, this would be a bit more of our Pro strategy.
And then Direct Sales, for those customers that don't have the time to go into a store to pick their product or even don't have time to go online to select their items and go through the purchase process there, we have a Direct Sales team that we've been building out this year that will do over $50 million in sales, that are going out and calling on these big barns and these big customers and then taking their orders, building that relationship and grabbing that volume over time.
And it's been very successful. We're a little over 1 year, 1.5 years into the rollout of that program now. Every other month, we're hiring a new cohort, bringing them up, putting them out in the market and then building that customer base. And so the strategies we're executing at big barn have been very successful, both on the Direct Sales side as well as the delivery and the final mile side.
When you say Pro, I think a lot of times investors will hit back on their heels, "That's a lot of investment, that's a lot of CapEx, margin dilutive."" Like how does the return on capital -- well, what's the investment required to make it happen? But then when you think about return on capital of this business, how does it compare to kind of the core Tractor?
Yes, I'll take that. The differentiator with that versus how you -- to your point, you normally start to think, if you talk Pro, it means you've got all this capital and spend. This is very much a hub-and-spoke type environment. It's asset light. So for us, we're utilizing our stores as the source of the product and the base as to where it's being delivered from.
You've got a sales force that -- a sales rep that may cover 5, 6, 7 stores in an environment. And you've really got -- you've got a low level of capital, leased trucks, leased vehicles, et cetera, for the field source. It's really not a capital-intensive environment. We can leverage our cross-stock and mixing centers, our distribution centers and our stores as the source for it. We're implementing principally a field-based team. And so it's not as capital-intensive as often you think about like a large, big home improvement type approach.
Got it. Okay. Stores. Critical to the business. You mentioned 2,400, target of 3,200, I think, at last check. Talk about the performance of the new stores, what the economics are. You made some decisions on owned versus leased. And then given the operating environment we're in, what would it take for you to have to reassess that and say, "Hey, you know what, 90 to 100, maybe that's too much." Or are we not even at that point yet?
Yes. Let me -- I'll talk first about our new store economic model and then I'll talk about some of the quantitative results of that kind of and then talk about how we think about what we do every year in terms of evaluating shareholder capital.
First, on our new stores. Our new stores are one of the best investments Tractor Supply can make, particularly in this environment given where our business results are, very much understand the question around new stores and are you kind of driving over the cliff, building too many new stores. What I'd say is a few things on that.
First off, our new store maturity curve benefit still significantly exceeds the impact of cannibalization as well as competitive impact. So it's still very much accretive, that kind of math right there. The second thing is when you look at the return on invested capital of our new stores, they are in the 23%, 24%, 25% range. So right there in that low to mid-20s. Still very much in line with where they were 10, 15 years ago, and in fact, 1 point or 2 higher. So our ROICs continue to be very strong on our new stores.
And then if you look at the new store productivity, I think last quarter we were like in the high 60s in terms of our new stores opening at our average store sales volume. So we're opening up in like the high 60s. Our new stores are profitable in the first year, cash flow positive in kind of somewhere between year 2 and year 3. Outstanding investments. We've incrementally improved that investment over the last handful of years, as Peter mentioned, by embracing a sale-leaseback model.
So historically, with Tractor Supply, if you think about the ROIC, right, the return on invested capital, you've got, obviously, your operating income on the top that the store is spinning off, but then you got your invested capital on the denominator side. So historically, where that invested capital would work is we would go to a developer and we'd say, "We want this location. You go build it for us and finance that build. And then when it's done, we'll have an agreed-upon lease and you can go flip that store in the market." They would typically spend $6 million to $6.5 million to build the store, typically flip it for $7.5 million to $8 million, and pocket somewhere between $1.25 million to $1.75 million in net for that effort.
Now what we're doing with half of our stores is we're using our balance sheet to fund that 18-month development cycle and we're paying the developer a $500,000 flat fee. And so instead of them making, say, $1.2 million, as I mentioned earlier, we're now -- they're now making $500,000. That $700,000 is coming back to us. As I mentioned, it takes $6.5 million or so to build a store. So we're saving 10% right there in the cost of building our stores. And then we're able to then sell it immediately on the open market because we very much have a lease operating strategy and bolster our invested capital there.
So new stores continue to be an outstanding investment for our shareholders. They continue to return well, and we are not kind of driving off that proverbial cliff. All that said, every -- all the time, throughout the year, but certainly about this time of year as we start to think about annual planning for the next year, we're always looking at what the right way to allocate our capital is. We've increased store counts from 70 to 80 to 100 over time, and we've gone up and down depending on the operating environment that we're in, and certainly always reserve the right to do that as we move forward.
If we were to do something like that, it would not be drastic like a 50% or 60% store reduction. It would be some toggling up and down as we've had historically 10 or 20 stores up or down as we see the environment and our need to evolve to reflect the environment. But this is a business that's always evolved to reflect the environment, and we certainly would do that again if we think it's prudent.
Great. Hal, the doors are opening in the back of the room. I think that means our time is up.
How about that?
There will be a breakout session in the Astor room. Join me in thanking the folks from Tractor Supply.
Thanks, Peter.
Thank you.
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Tractor Supply — 2026 Baird Global Consumer
Tractor Supply — 2026 Baird Global Consumer
Tractor Supply reagiert auf schwächere Endmärkte mit gezielten Maßnahmen in Pet, Direct Sales und Final‑Mile, bleibt aber auf Expansionskurs bei Stores.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Tractor Supply sieht kurzfristige Schwäche in rund 80% seines Total Addressable Market (TAM; Farm, Pet, Heimwerken), bleibt aber überzeugt von strukturellem Wachstum dank hoher Kundenloyalität, starker Bilanz und gezielten Investitionen in Pet‑Sortiment/Services, Digital und Final‑Mile.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Pet‑Offensive: Rollout von Freshpet, umfassende Dog‑Area‑Resets und Akquisition von VIP Petcare (mobile Kliniken) zur Verschiebung hin zu Services und Wellness.
- Direct Sales / B2B: Fokus auf "Big Barn" (große landwirtschaftliche Kunden), Direct‑Sales‑Team erzielt >$50 Mio. und Final‑Mile liefert größere Mengen direkt an Hof/Stall.
- Stores & Kapital: Weiterer Store‑Ausbau mit Sale‑Leaseback‑Ansatz; neue Filialen liefern ROIC von ~23–25% und werden schnell profitabel.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Freshpet: Bereits in >250 Stores, weitere ~500 Filialen bis Jahresende geplant.
- VIP‑Akquise: Über 1 Mio. Kunden jährlich erreichbar; Ausbau in ~700–800 verbleibenden Stores als Wachstumshebel.
- Store‑Economics: Finanzierung der Entwicklung reduziert Baukosten um ~10% (Flatrate an Entwickler), neues Store‑ROIC bei ~23–25%; Direct Sales skaliert seit 1–1,5 Jahren.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Marktstruktur: Analysten fragten zu Pet‑Schwäche, Home‑Improvement‑Trends und Wettbewerb; Management bestätigte Mix‑Headwind (Tractor Supply ist stärker dog‑orientiert) und langfristiges Share‑Gain‑Potenzial.
- Pet‑Maßnahmen: Nachgefragt wurde zu Merchandising‑Änderungen; Antwort: umfangreiche Dog‑Area‑Resets, mehr Cat‑Fläche, Fokus auf Wellness/Fresh und Service‑Integration.
- Kapital & RoI: Zu Direct Sales/Pro‑Strategie und Store‑Pace: CFO betonte asset‑light Field‑Model, geringe zusätzliche CapEx; bei Stores bleibt man flexibel, aber keine drastische Reduktion geplant. Management gab keine detaillierten intra‑quarter Kennzahlen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Für Aktionäre bedeutet das: kurzfristige Headwinds sind real, aber die Führung liefert klar definierte taktische Antworten (Pet‑Sortiment, Services, Direct Sales, Final‑Mile) und hält an einem profitablen Store‑Wachstum fest. Hauptrisiken sind Ausbleiben der Verbrauchererholung, höhere Treibstoff-/Frachtkosten und Ausführungsrisiken bei Integrationen; entscheidend bleibt die Umsetzung der Pet‑ und B2B‑Initiativen.
Tractor Supply — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Tractor Supply Company's conference call to discuss first quarter 2026 results. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that reproduction of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization of Tractor Supply Company. And as a reminder, this call is being recorded.
I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mary Winn Pilkington, Senior Vice President of Investor and Public Relations for Tractor Supply Company. Mary Winn, please go ahead.
Thank you, Victoria. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your time and participation in today's call. On the call today, participating in our prepared remarks are Hal Lawton, our CEO; Kurt Barton, our CFO; and Seth Estep, our Chief Merchandising Officer. In addition to Seth, we will also have Rob Mills, John Ordus and Colin Yankee, join the call for the question-and-answer portion. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the floor for questions.
Now let me reference the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This call may contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including the future operating and financial performance of the company. In many cases, these risks and uncertainties are beyond our control. Although the company believes the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations or any of its forward-looking statements will prove to be correct, and actual results may differ materially from expectations.
Important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements are included at the end of the press release issued today and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The information contained in this call is accurate only as of the date discussed. Investors should not assume that statements will remain operative at a later time. Tractor Supply undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed in this call.
As we move into the Q&A session, please limit yourself to 1 question to ensure everyone has the opportunity to participate. If you have additional questions, please feel free to rejoin the queue. We appreciate your understanding and cooperation, we will also be available after the call for any further discussions. Now let me turn the call over to Hal.
Thank you, Mary Winn, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I want to thank our more than 52,000 Tractor Supply team members. Their commitment and passion for life out here continue to set us apart and their dedication to delivering legendary service remains the foundation of our leadership in rural retail. The retail environment remains cautious but stable, with spending focus on needs and small indulgences with some evidence of trip consolidation. Within farm and ranch, the broader market has slowed, though we continue to gain share. In fact, we estimate we had one of our best share performances in Q1.
In Pet, the category remains pressured. And while we are holding our share, our performance is below our expectations. A good example of the consumer spending is around their tax refund behavior. While refunds did come through and we captured our fair share, customers are using these dollars more cautiously. A significant portion is going towards essentials, savings and debt reduction rather than discretionary spending, consistent with the broader environment we're seeing. Our needs-based model continues to perform as expected in this environment, demonstrating its resiliency. We are seeing that in consistent demand across our core categories and continued engagement from our customers.
In the first quarter, that played out in distinct phases, driven by weather timing. We ended the year lapping 2 years of significant storms, which created a slower start, followed by a major storm event that drove a pickup in demand. Trends then normalize through the middle of the quarter before a mixed finish with a good start to spring in the South more than offset by continued weather pressure in the North. Overall, weather was neutral to our performance in the quarter.
Against that backdrop, I'm very pleased with our execution in the quarter. The team responded well to winter storms, activated strong events and around holidays and regionalized our marketing based on weather patterns. And we executed a clean transition into spring and chick days with encouraging early results. We remain focused on executing across the business. Advancing new store growth, expanding exclusive brands and maintaining disciplined SG&A control while continuing to make progress on our strategic initiatives. Gross margin remained in line with our expectations with ongoing pressure from tariffs, cost inflation and freight, which we continue to actively manage.
Turning to our customers. Growth was driven by new stores and our existing customer base with store traffic increasing in low single digits and conversion in their stores roughly flat. Active customer counts grew though visit frequency declined modestly. We saw continued strength in our high-value customers with solid retention and engagement, supported by continued growth in Neighbor's Club penetration and higher engagement from our most valuable members, while new customer acquisition remains softer and was most reliant on new stores.
Turning to our first quarter results. Net sales increased 3.6% to $3.59 billion, driven by new store openings. We opened a record 40 traction supply stores in the quarter and new store productivity remained in the 65% to 70% range. New stores remain a hallmark of our performance. Diluted earnings per share were $0.31. Comparable store sales increased 0.5% with average ticket up 1.6% and transactions down 1%. Four of our 5 product categories were positive and 6 of our 7 geographic regions delivered positive results, reflecting the broad-based strength of the business.
With the exception of companion animal, our consumable, usable and edible categories delivered consistent performance in line with our expectations, led by poultry feed, bedding, livestock feed and equine feed. Companion animal performance reflects a number of structural headwinds. Sales were below the chain average, reflecting these dynamics. Dog ownership, particularly in larger breeds, has come under pressure, and our mix remains heavily weighted towards dog where we over-index by roughly 20 points. Cat ownership is growing and gaining share, and that's where we under index.
Both species are also shifting towards fresh and premium nutrition where again, we are under-indexed. And our pace of share gains in both dog and cat has slowed. All this said, we are taking clear and decisive actions to strengthen our position, include expanding our Freshpet offering, increasing cat assortment, and enhancing our services and Rx capabilities, and Seth will walk through these and more in detail.
Seasonal categories developed more gradually early in the quarter with spring category strengthening as the season progressed. Overall, we saw solid performance across both our winter and spring assortments. Big ticket categories performed above the chain average with strength in tractors and riders, generators and welding, partially offset by softness in chicken coops, trailers and recreational vehicles. Our digital business also continues to perform at a very high level with strong double-digit growth in the quarter. And we saw meaningful increases in traffic, along with improved conversion, reflecting the strength of our omnichannel experience.
We've made targeted enhancements across our platform, including improvements to how customers shop and navigate our assortment as well as upgrades to our subscription offering as well as our order management and checkout experiences. These efforts are driving a more seamless and efficient experience and supporting continued momentum in the business.
As we look beyond the quarter, we continue to make progress on our Life Out Here 2030 priorities. On localization, results are encouraging as we tailor assortments to local needs with more than 200 stores now localized and delivering improved performance and stronger customer engagement. In direct sales, momentum continues to build as we expand our sales force and deepen relationships with our higher-value customers, and this is driving increased productivity, larger basket sizes and repeat engagement.
In Final Mile, we're scaling our delivery network, adding hubs and increasing delivery volume, supporting the continued strength in our digital business while improving efficiency and reducing our cost to serve. Within pet and animal Rx, we're seeing encouraging progress across both Allivet and tractorsupply.com as we expand our offering and enhance convenience for customers while driving engagement with new and reoccurring purchases.
As we look ahead, we're seeing our typical seasonal ramp take hold as we build towards Memorial Day with stronger seasonal penetration and improving trends in the North, we expect sequential improvement in comparable sales relative to the first quarter. We continue to see strength across our customer base and in the majority of our business. We're taking targeted actions in areas of opportunity while continuing to execute on our strategic priorities. We remain focused on what we can control, investing with discipline, managing costs and most importantly, as always, serving our customers. That approach continues to position us to drive market share gains and long-term value. Lastly, we are reaffirming our full year outlook. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Kurt.
Thank you, Hal, and good morning, everyone. Let me complement Hal's top line commentary by briefly covering the underlying drivers. Overall, our net sales performance was modestly below our expectations for the quarter. New store sales outperformed expectations in both timing and the number of new stores opened. This was offset by comp store sales performance below our expectations as we planned for Q1 comp sales to be at the low end of our 2026 guidance range. The primary driver of this performance was the softness in companion animal, which represented just over a 100 basis point drag on our comparable store sales.
To further break down comp sales performance, average ticket increased 1.6%, driven primarily by higher average unit retail, reflecting a combination of inflation and category mix. Retail price inflation was the primary driver to the average ticket increase at approximately 150 basis points contribution along with a category mix benefit, principally from big ticket sales growth. This was partially offset by a modest decline in units per transaction. The mid-single-digit growth in big ticket categories was generally in line with our expectations.
The growth in average ticket was partially offset by a 1% decline in transactions, reflecting customers' continued focus on value and prioritization of spending as Hal mentioned earlier, leading to reduced shopping frequency and trip consolidation. As expected, ticket outpaced transactions in the quarter.
Turning to gross margin and SG&A. Gross margin was 36.2%, flat to prior year. The gross margin rate was generally in line with our expectations and reflects supply chain efficiencies and continued execution of our everyday low price strategy, offset by a higher mix of digital and other delivery-related sales, along with the continued pressure of tariff costs. This stability reflects the team's continued focus and cost management in a dynamic environment.
And on tariffs, the impacts remained in line with our expectations with pressure largely contained and mitigated through our ongoing cost management efforts. SG&A increased 6.1% to $1.07 billion and as a percent of sales, was 29.7%, an increase of 70 basis points. There were 3 primary drivers of the deleverage. First, fixed cost deleverage given the level of comparable store sales below our 2% breakeven threshold. Second, continued investment in strategic initiatives across the business as we do not begin to cycle the step-up in investments for direct sales in Final Mile until Q2. And third, an accelerated new store opening cadence with 40 stores opened in the quarter. These were partially offset by ongoing productivity initiatives and cost management. As we shared last quarter, we expected Q1 to carry a heavier SG&A burden and that played out in line with our expectations.
Our inventory remains in good shape with the average inventory per store increase principally reflecting inflation, inclusive of tariff costs and the timing of spring seasonal purchases. We continue to manage inventory effectively, supporting in-stock levels in key categories while maintaining overall quality and balance across the network. We also remain committed to returning capital to shareholders. Our dividend increase in February marked our 17th consecutive year of dividend increases.
Turning to our outlook. We are reaffirming our full year 2026 guidance as outlined in this morning's earnings release. We continue to target comp sales growth in the range of 1% to 3% for each of the remaining quarters. Please keep in mind that we manage the business on the halves and not the quarter.
From a margin standpoint, we expect gross margin to strengthen in the second half as comparisons ease and benefits from our new distribution center begin to flow through. SG&A deleverage will be higher in the first half, driven by the timing of new store openings, more normalized incentive compensation and the lapping of prior strategic investments. Our 11th distribution center remains on schedule, with shipping expected to begin in early Q4, and we expect approximately $10 million of incremental expense this year, primarily in the second half.
Consistent with our outlook as we entered the year, we expect stronger EPS growth in Q2 and Q4 given the prior year's compares. On tariffs, the current environment remains fluid. We are managing the business based on what we know today and have not assumed any incremental benefit from refunds in our outlook.
In closing, the quarter reflects a resilient business with consistent performance across the majority of our categories. We remain confident in our ability to deliver on our full year expectations and drive long-term value for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn it over to Seth.
Thanks, Kurt, and good morning, everyone. Tractor Supply's merchandising strategy is focused on meeting customers where they are today while positioning the business for where demand is going. We are taking deliberate actions to drive relevance, expand our reach and strengthen our position as the dependable supplier for Life Out Here.
I'll start with our pet business, where we have a focused structured plan to accelerate performance and capture growth, then followed by key merchandising initiatives across the broader portfolio. As Hal mentioned, the category is evolving with macro trends in dog ownership, growth in cat and a continued shift toward premium fresh and more digitally enabled solutions. While our assortment has historically been well aligned to our core customer, particularly in dry kibble and larger dog formats, incremental growth is increasingly being driven by adjacent segments as we actively expand our presence.
To address this, our plan is centered on 4 key areas: first, assortment transformation; second, exclusive brand innovation; third, digital capabilities; and fourth, customer engagement, all supported by continued investment in talent and category leadership.
Starting with assortment. We are expanding into the fastest-growing segments of the category. We are aggressively scaling fresh and frozen pet, moving from approximately 80 stores today to more than 250 stores by the end of May with a path to 700 stores by year-end. While still early, we are encouraged that approximately 1/3 of customers purchasing Freshpet in our pilots are either new or reactivated to the category at TSC, demonstrating the traffic-driving potential of this segment.
In parallel, we are expanding our presence in cat. Increasing space across our fusion stores, expanding both dry and wet assortments and improving presentation to better capture the opportunity in this rapidly growing segment.
In dog, a comprehensive chain-wide upgrade of our food business in Q2 extends into key adjacencies, such as shreds, treats and meal enhancers, while introducing new brands like Stella and Chewy, and broadening the assortment of leading national and differentiated brands like Purina Pro Plan, Hill Science Diet, Victor and Sports Mix. We are also incorporating more localized assortment decisions to ensure relevance by market and customer.
A second key pillar is accelerating innovation across our exclusive brands. For Health remains a cornerstone of our strategy with strong scale and continued share gains. We're expanding the brand across multiple formats, including the launch of New for Health shreds formulas and extending into higher growth segments, such as Ambient Fresh and meal enhancers with differentiated offerings. In addition, the Retriever portfolio will be relaunched in Q3 with enhanced formulations, expanded SKUs and updated packaging, further strengthening our value proposition across good, better and best years.
Moving to our third pillar. We are accelerating our digital capabilities to better serve pet customers and capture reoccurring demand. Our online pet business grew mid-teens in Q1 led by subscription, which grew by triple digits driving new customer acquisition, strong retention and increasing repeat purchase behavior in core consumables. In addition, we've expanded our Pet Rx offerings across both Allivet and tractorsupply.com, while leveraging our last-mile delivery network to improve the fulfillment experience and lower cost, particularly for large format pet food.
Fourth, customer engagement is a key priority with enhanced engagement through Neighbor's Club and continued leverage of our pet services ecosystem to drive higher frequency and lifetime value. Through Neighbor's Club, we have the opportunity to deliver more personalized experiences, reactivate customers and acquire new customers through targeted outreach. We also see a meaningful opportunity to convert our large animal customers into pet customers, leveraging our highly engaged base.
Our services offerings continue to play an important role. In Pet wash, we have more than 1,200 locations with strong growth in usage, including double-digit increases in comparable units. This reflects the value customers are placing on this offering. And PetVet mobile clinics performance remains solid, with sales growth building on strong prior year trends with a 2-year stack of nearly 25%. We see continued opportunity to expand access and scale this offering with additional clinics planned in the near term. These services help us drive frequency, attract new customers and strengthen long-term relationships, reinforcing our competitive position in the pet category. We expect to continue expanding these capabilities over time.
In supporting all these efforts, we are investing in talent and leadership across the pet category, ensuring we have the right expertise, focus and execution capabilities to drive sustained improvement. All these actions in companion animal are designed to accelerate performance and position the pet business for improved growth and share gains.
Importantly, beyond pet, we are very excited about our broader portfolio, which continues to perform with strength and building momentum. We are leaning into our seasonal moments, particularly as we transition into spring and summer. Chick Days is off to an encouraging start, with strong engagement from both new and existing customers, and we are on track to sell a record number of birds this season. This event continues to serve as a powerful traffic driver and a key entry point into our broader animal care ecosystem, driving demand across feed, coops and accessories.
In our seasonal big-ticket categories, performance is exceeding expectations, led by live goods and our zero-turn mower lineup. This lineup featuring brands such as Bad Boy, Cub Cadet, Toro and Husqvarna is performing well. And our new flagship stores are driving improved presentation, attachment and overall productivity. Our stores are ready for the spring planting season as we have nearly 50% of our stores with either a garden center or a live goods tenant. We're well positioned for the season with the right assortment, the right presentation and the right momentum to capture the seasonal opportunity.
Moving to livestock feed. We recently completed a comprehensive private label network review to ensure consistent quality at the lowest cost to serve, strengthening both our retail and our direct sales capabilities, we've been one of our most important heritage categories.
We're also expanding our assortment with key regional brands such as Total Equine, Bluebonnet and Buckeye, allowing us to better localize our offering and meet customer needs across different geographies. We also continue to invest in our exclusive brand portfolio, a key differentiator for Tractor Supply. A great example of this is Field & Stream, where our new product introductions are performing well. The brand is on track to hit over $100 million in sales this year, joining the ranks of 13 other exclusive brands at this sales milestone.
We're excited about the continued launch of new programs across our wildlife and recreation department where the Field & Stream brand is helping anchor this strategy. Our in-store conversions of our dedicated wildlife and rec department are off and running, and we are pleased with the early results. As such, we are increasing our outlook from around 500 to approximately 700 store conversions by year-end.
Together, all these initiatives are designed to drive near-term performance and strengthen our long-term position ensuring that we continue to meet our customers where they are and support the way they live and work. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Hal.
Thanks, Seth. Stepping back, what you're hearing is a clear and focused approach. The fundamentals of our business remain strong with consistent customer engagement and continued strength across our needs-based categories. At the same time, we're operating with discipline in a dynamic cost environment and taking decisive actions to improve performance in companion animal and accelerate growth across our strategic initiatives. We're moving with urgency in areas where we see opportunity.
As part of our Life Out Here 2030 strategy, we're making meaningful progress in building capabilities to support long-term growth. We're strengthening what we do best, while continuing to scale new initiatives that expand how we serve our customers and grow our share of wallet.
As we look ahead, we expect to build momentum through the year, supported by these actions and continued execution across the business. With that, we'll open the line for your questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Peter Keith with Piper Sandler.
2. Question Answer
I think I just want to kick it off with companion animal since that was a focus here. Is that category getting worse? Like I guess if you could talk about the trend through the quarter. Then you've got a bunch of initiatives to help stabilize it. Do you think those are starting to kick in now? Or could things get worse before they get better?
Peter, it's Hal, and thanks for joining the call this morning and appreciate your question. On pet, first off, I'd say a few things. As I mentioned in my opening remarks and Seth did as well, we view our share performance in pet to be stable, and it's been in that kind of stable run rate really for the last 4 or 5 quarters, albeit it's below our expectations.
The overall structured dynamics in the industry continued to be under pressure as both Seth and I articulated. And then we also have some additional pressures given the mix and the structure in the industry given our weight on -- towards dog and also our weight outside of the Fresh and Frozen. But as Seth mentioned, we're taking actions on both of those dimensions, expanding our assortment in cat and then also aggressively getting into the fresh and frozen market.
More broadly on -- and so I'd say our comp trends have been stable for really the better part of 6, 7 months now in that category, and as we roll into Q2 are stable in that range and then also our share performance stable. As we look forward, while Pet is a kind of headwind in the moment for us, a couple of things I'll just comment. First off, I really, first I'll articulate that we have a kind of broad portfolio inside of the business that we play against, whether it's Q, seasonal, big ticket and certainly as our digital business, as we mentioned, exceeded expectations in Q1. So we do see multiple offsets throughout the balance of the year.
The other thing I just want to highlight is the pet over indexes in Q1 by nearly 5 points relative to the average through the balance of the year, and it under-indexes in Q2 before kind of moderating in the back half. So there is a kind of mix impact that we had in Q1 on that as well. But the guidance, and we reiterated guidance today, our plan and forecast assumes that we'll have continued pressure for some time in that category, and then we'll kind of see gradual improvement as those initiatives take hold. But again, a portfolio of categories that we play in [indiscernible] slate out a number of the actions were taken in pet, but also a number of the actions we've taken out -- taken more broadly. We're midway into Q2 now and feel good about the sequential improvement we've seen in the business as the season ramps. Thanks so much, Peter.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.
It comes on the heels of your comments just now Hal, which is how long do you think it will take to effectuate an improvement within the pet category. And if we assume that Tractor Supply, the updated algorithm may be more like 2% to 3% comp growth rather than the expected range of 3% to 5%, what does that do to the earnings outlook for the business over the longer run?
Michael, and good to hear from you, and thanks for joining the call today. On the -- how long the improvement, as I mentioned earlier, our plan for the balance of this year assumes continued pressure in that category. As I mentioned, we see number of offsets and a variety of ways that we'll continue to operate in the context of our full year guidance. We are very much operating in that -- the middle of our full year guidance range here kind of almost 4 weeks into Q2. So I feel good about our trends so far into Q2. Remind that no less than 2 quarters ago, we delivered a 4% comp, and our seasonal ramp and execution are building momentum.
And so certainly, we have actions and plans around pet, but the performance, I think, will be both dictated by our actions, but also how the overall market continues to evolve. There was 96 million dogs in the market in 2023, that dropped down to about 94 million in 2024. And then I think most folks thought it would kind of stabilize around there. And then in 2025, you had a couple of million more dogs of decline going down to approximately 92. So that will dictate some of the performance. That will dictate equally the performance as well as our actions as we look forward to the balance of the year.
And then as it relates to our overall growth algorithm, we're certainly not addressing that today. But I'd just say our business is need based. We do not see this as a structurally lower growth business. Right now, our customers are -- they're playing the macro. They're stable. They're performing. We continue to have strong share gains in farm and ranch, and our customers are shopping to their need now. And we certainly don't see it as a structurally low-growth business. We just see our business and customer shopping as they need right now, and it's certainly a little bit more of a tepid consumer environment in the moment.
Our next question comes from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird.
This is [ Zach Back ] on for Peter. Maybe one on the macro kind of in 2 parts. Hal, I know you mentioned seeing consumers kind of use those tax refunds more cautiously. Just curious, any changes in behavior from your core customer, maybe observed since the start of the Iran conflict about 6 or 7 weeks ago. And then secondly, just on oil prices, can you give us a sense of what level of oil prices are embedded in guidance? Maybe what is the sensitivity around this? And how should we think about the impact on margins if oil would stay kind of in that higher range of around $100 a barrel?
Yes. Zach, and thanks for joining our call this morning. I'll hit both of those topics. First, on the macro, I'd start by a little bit building off of the answer that I just had with Michael. Our customer remains very stable. They're focused on needs-based spending in the moment. We have continued strength in Q more broadly across the business in our essential categories. I'd highlight our high-value customers as remaining very engaged and retained. I think you're hearing that broadly across retail. Our active customer accounts are growing, albeit there's a modest reduction in their frequency and also in their basket at this time. And I think that really just reflects a focus on value, not really demand deterioration when you look at the underlying fundamentals there.
So we feel good about our customer. As I said, they're shopping to need. They're engaged, and we're retaining them. And as their spending habits improve, we expect our comps to moderate as well.
On oil, our current forecast, their guidance, we've updated our internal numbers to reflect kind of the latest outlook on fuel pricing. And so kind of I would say we're very conservative on that front in terms of having the higher fuel cost kind of forecasted certainly for the foreseeable future in the business, Q2 and into Q3. And then we'll update more so as we get into the back half of the year. But we -- we certainly have been cautious and conservative, and that's incorporated overall guidance, which we reiterated today and feel very comfortable in our ability to manage gross margin in that context.
Our next question comes from the line of Kate McShane with Goldman Sachs.
We wanted to specifically ask about new customer acquisition remaining softer and that it's being mainly driven by new stores. Could you maybe double-click on that a little bit more? And then just kind of in the same vein, what kind of comp performance are you seeing in the localized stores which you highlighted is about 200 stores at this point? And can you remind us -- remind us for the rollout of this initiative?
Kate, and thanks for the question today. On new customers, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, our new customer growth is really right now predominantly relying on new stores, not uncommon in retail, but certainly, we would like to be driving new customer growth in our existing stores as well. But in our existing stores right now, it's mostly active customers that we're retaining and driving the business with.
More broadly, if we step back, well, the second part of the question was on -- that's right, localization, -- sorry. If we step back more broadly on localization, I'd start really more with our store base. So we're about 60% of our stores now are in the fusion format. About 400 to 500 of those are new stores that have been built in the last 5 years. Those stores, as you can see in our new store performance curves are having outstanding comp results. Then you look at the balance of the remaining of our 60% of our stores that are in the Fusion format. Those stores are performing at or above the comp average. Certainly, the ones that we've done the localization treatment on in the last year to 1.5 years are now at 200 stores of localization are outperforming the rest of the Fusion store base. And then you take the remaining 40% of stores that are not infusion and not new stores. And those are the ones that are underperforming relative to our overall comp base.
So not uncommon in what you see in a store base where you're kind of older stores that have not been remodeled are kind of dragging the comp. Your Fusion remodel stores are slightly above the overall comp and helping pull it up with the localization, meaning they're outperforming, as we've talked about, by that low to mid-single-digit comp run rate and then you get the balance of that performance coming from our new stores. So feeling great about our fusion format, feeling very good about the benefits of localization. And obviously, our focus over the next few years is continuing to move about 175 to 200 stores a year into the Fusion format and continue to drive that improvement in our store base.
Our next question comes from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.
So I want to follow up on companion pet to make sure I got the math right. You talked about the category being a 100 basis point headwind to comps in the first quarter, that would suggest it was down 3%, and that's been a consistent trend over the past 6, 7 months. Guess more fundamentally, how do you think about the headwinds in the category between sort of like structural versus a mix sort of headwind related to what you're assorting and -- the dog, cat side and versus like online penetration. So think about Amazon pushing deeper into rural markets versus not a sorting fresh.
And then on the cat side, appreciate that you're expanding an effort to focus more on Cat. Do you think your core customer simply under indexes to the cat category and over-indexes to large dog and sort of so -- perhaps the effort around cat faces some just inherent headwinds relative to who your customer is?
Yes, Chris. And just to reiterate maybe some of the points we made earlier. So we're about 80% dog, 20% cat versus the market that's 60-40. We've always talked about our customer owns -- about 75% of our customers own a dog. Over 50% of our customers own a cat. And over 50% of our customers own more than 1 dog. So we have heavy pet population counts in our customer base.
As we expand into cat, and we've been doing that now for about 6, 8 months, we started talking with you all about that middle of last year. We are seeing performance improvement in the stores that we expand our cat in. And as we roll out more fresh and kind of air drive and heavy nutritional products on the dog side, we're seeing improved performance in that as well. We have no reason to believe that as we expand Cat moving forward that we won't continue to drive performance there.
To your point, it's a very competitive industry. You see grocery channels starting to pick back up. Certainly, you see pet specialty trying to recover share, although they continue to lose share at a pretty decent clip. And as you said, you see the balance of the share shifting into online. But the category overall right now is kind of flat to negative in total growth. And certainly, that's the case when you exclude the services piece of it, grooming and the bet element of the pet category.
Our next question comes from the line of Spencer Hanus with Wolfe Research.
Just on new store growth. I'm curious what you're seeing from a cannibalization effect. Have you seen any step-up in that? And is that driving any of the softness here? And how are you thinking about that longer term. And then just one more on companion animal. You gave us some interesting stats on the dog population. Do you invent that continuing to decline as we look out here? Or do you expect that to stabilize?
Spencer, this is Kurt. I'll take the first question on new stores and cannibalization. I'll flip it over to Seth on your follow-up question on dog population. Our new stores are performing really strong. You heard that in Hal's prepared remarks. We continue to see even when we opened up 40 stores this year, averaging over 100 in the last 4 quarters that the new store productivity is performing at the high end of that range of 65% to 70%.
Part of that -- I'll just follow up on the earlier question. Localization is also helping the store -- new stores come out the gates strong as we ensure we're offering the right best product assortment in those new markets and those new stores.
Now in regards to your question on cannibalization. Cannibalization continues to be modest. In many cases, we'll look at some of that to be healthy cannibalization as we put a second store in a market that's really strong. We look at and review and approve our new stores based on the IRR and incremental benefit net of cannibalization and our cannibalization level is pretty consistent with the last few years, and we measure our performance on our stores as to the net increment to comp sales, net of any level of cannibalization, and we continue to just have a modest and manageable level of cannibalization indicating our new store growth is still in a very healthy position. Seth, maybe turning it over to you on the follow-up question on dog.
Yes. Just one follow-up question on the dog. Just in general, I would just say that we're not currently assuming really any changes in the trend at this point. Obviously, it's macro based a little bit. But obviously, we're staying very close to where those trends are going. But more importantly, it's more about the actions we're taking to make sure that we can make sure that we're not only like remaining in keeping our share, but returning to share growth.
And that does go back to, again, our assortment transformation initiatives, our exclusive brand growth, our digital acceleration and all the things that we're doing to work through our customer engagement, whether that be through pet services, Rx, Neighbor's Club, et cetera. We've continued to evolve with this category over time, and we're very confident in what we've been piloting, and we believe that as these continue to roll out a little bit later here in Q2 and into Q3 and start to build all these initiatives to scale that at that point, we'll start to see some kind of incremental and sequential improvement as we close the year and kind of move into next year.
Our next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.
Back to companion animal. Are you willing to share what level of comp growth you're targeting? Should it be within the middle of this year's comp range? Or is it in the long-term range? Or is it above the range? Curious what you're targeting, if you're willing to share how far off you are, I know someone offered a level of which you might be growing or shrinking at this point. And then any more on what's gotten better thus far in Q2? Is it that mix effect on the total business? Is it some outdoor categories? Can you share some of those details.
Simeon, it's Kurt. I can offer up some color on your question in regards to the expectation on companion animal and our guidance and then how we see that playing out. I'll go back to Q1, and we made commentary in our Q4 call on the guidance that on our 1 to 3 comp, some of the stronger categories and some of the weaker categories, we said companion animal being under pressure in general at that time, would lag the chain average. And so for the year, we expected flat to slightly positive comps in companion animal.
To the point that we made that 100 basis point pressure on the quarter definitely showed that we were running a negative comp in there. We anticipate that to be additionally pressured throughout this year. So companion animal going forward, we believe there's ability to see growth in that performance as the year progresses and our actions take hold. But we anticipate that companion animal will be under some modest pressure and likely to be at a flat or slight negative comp throughout this year. And that's embedded in our expectation for the rest of this year and part of our consideration when we say that we still believe we can run the future quarters within our guidance range of 1% to 3%.
Simeon, this is [indiscernible] second question on Q2 and whether some improvements. Just to recall to some of the commentary we had in Q1 as well. 4 of our 5 merchandise categories were positive. And as Hal mentioned as well, mix in Q1 is much heavier part of that mix than it is as we go into Q2. With that, we are very encouraged with the strength that we're seeing right now in our seasonal business. Mentioned earlier around Live goods is performing very strong. Our Big Ticket categories and seasonal like with our zero-turn lineup, assortment continues to perform. And also like digital continues to be incredibly strong as well. So we're leaning into the categories of strength. We talked about our wildlife and recreation area, some of our men's and women's apparel that we continue to evolve are doing well.
And obviously as well, things like our traditional businesses like in Ag, sprayers and chemicals are core areas are well are continuing to perform as we go into Q2. And we see those really being in that range and give us confidence in that 1% to 3% range for our comp guidance.
The next question comes from Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett Research Advisors.
A question for Seth and maybe Rob too. Can we zoom in on Neighbor's Club, Garden Centers and Direct Mile and maybe double click on the opportunities on each of these fronts. And then my follow-up is for Kurt. Can you remind us any mix implications as you lean into the -- sorry, the category more? And should we be mindful of any investment in price that you may want to take across the Pet business to stimulate demand?
Chuck, do you want to kind of narrow down maybe that first part of the question? I just said that we get it because it was kind of mixed in there.
Yes, just maybe just zoom in on Neighbor's Club, Garden Centers and Direct Mile. Just a little bit of an update on each of those fronts. And then just on the margin side for Kurt, any mix implications from the expansion into cat that we should be mindful of?
Thanks, Chuck. I'll hit real quickly on Neighbor's Club, Garden Center pricing, and then I'm going to turn it over to Colin to talk about Final Mile. Neighbor's Club continues to perform very well. We have not been disclosing as a recent our Neighbor's Club membership. I think it continues to grow at about the same pace as it has the last handful of quarters. So really straightforward there. Retention remains strong. Spend per member remains strong. As we commented several times, our active customer base remains very core and engaged in our business.
On Garden Centers. Our Garden Centers are performing very well. Seth highlighted live goods as a -- off to an excellent start for us this year. We are over 1,000 stores now collectively with garden centers and/or live good tents, and both concepts performing very well.
And then on pricing, really, nothing of -- that I would call out from a mix difference between cat and dog, the margin structures are reasonably comparable in the food side of things, reasonably comparable on the snack side of things. So as we make assortment shifts there, it's very manageable within the department. I'm going to shift it over to Colin now to talk about Final Mile, which is [indiscernible] a great first quarter and really is kind of one of the core underlying levers that's driving that 20% plus digital growth this -- in the first quarter and continuing here into the second quarter.
Thanks, Hal. Chuck, good to hear from you. As Hal mentioned, our Final Mile program is exceeding our expectations. Programs really resonating with our customers as they're choosing to have more of their needs delivered, especially for those larger order quantities, and we're lowering the cost per delivery across the entire portfolio as we roll out this program. Reminder, 2 big unlocks for Final Mile. First is enabling demand, whether that's for direct sales or digital. And then the second is that more efficient and lower cost per delivery. We saw it in the volume in Q1, delivery volume was up double digits compared to last year. And I think what's really unique about what we're doing is how we're orchestrating our inventory upstream.
So we're making choices about how we deploy inventory, whether it flows through a DC to a store or resource that delivery through the store. And then the partners we're using to get that product from the store out to the customer's property. For those small and medium type items, we're using a series of trusted delivery partners where we really want to get our team members delivering is in those large, extra large and huge kind of deliveries, it's amazing. We'll go to put a Final Mile delivery hub in and all of a sudden, we'll see 250 bags of shavings get ordered, [indiscernible] 16-foot fence panels, just these big orders that nobody else can deliver at scale nationally like we can and something we've never been able to do, and our customers are really responding to it.
Last year, we stood up about 200 Final Mile hubs. This year, we're on plan to open up 176 more, and those hubs are trending ahead on our utilization of our expectations. So really pleased. We know we have a lot of work to do still as we build out this program. But all signs point to this being a massive enabler for us digitally and on direct sales.
Our next question comes from the line of Seth Sigman with Barclays.
I wanted to ask about pricing. So inflation was 150 basis points in Q1. I think that's actually down from where it was in the fourth quarter. Did you guys actually lower prices? Or is that just a mix dynamic this quarter versus last quarter? And then can you also speak to elasticity, the experience that you've had to date? And then just finally on pricing. A lot of the inflation has been tariff-related up until this point. What is your view on commodity-related inflation? How does that play out from here?
Seth, this is Seth. Thanks for the question. As always, when you think about pricing, we've got a very experienced team. We've got all the tools in place set for years that we've been able to really have a good draft on the costs that are coming at us and flowing through the system as well as being able to monitor kind of, call it, the competitive index in our categories out there to ensure that we are priced right in the market. Our strategy on that has not changed. EDLP is our true north. We're going to make sure that we are competitive and in a position to drive share.
Relative to the current environment, I'll tell you, though, like there's a lot of dynamics that obviously you're flowing through, whether that be to your point around some of the EDLP tariffs and how that, a little bit put some pressure on the inflationary environment. But obviously, now we're shifting and flowing into some other potential cost pressures relative to fuel, oil, some other inputs, et cetera. And we're just monitoring those closely. I mean there's a lot of uncertainty as we look ahead. But as of right now, we're in a position to continue to operate within kind of our guided range and the expectation of that inflation, call it in that kind of 1% to 2%. And a lot of that would come from price relative to some of the cost pressures that had been there and there's no change to that kind of expectation at that time.
Our next question comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli with Truist.
I believe PET is about 25% of total sales and it's also your highest frequency segment. So assuming those statements are both correct. Contractors, comp transactions turn positive, if pet stays negative just given the frequency related to that category? And then secondly, just a clarification. Was overall Q above or below company average?
Scot, this is Kurt. A couple of clarifications on that. Pet is a traffic driver in some cases, it is an add-on in other cases, to just kind of set the expectation on or at least clarification on the biggest frequency and traffic driver, it's really the large animal. It's the feed category that is the, by far, the biggest traffic driver. So just clarification on that.
And then to your point on companion animal and the mix, as I was mentioned earlier, Q1 being a smaller sales quarter, that's really more the routine. It overindexes in feed and pet food in those and lesser in other quarters. And so while it being not the primary traffic driver, and while it's still a solid business for us with a lot of our strategic initiatives with in Q2, with it being a heavy seasonal type category. And as a reference point, you see this in our disclosures, companion animals roughly like 21% in Q2 versus 27%, 28% in Q1. We've got the right drivers. And as Hal mentioned, a majority of our categories are solid in performing. A majority of the markets are performing well. So I wouldn't over-index. We're not over-indexing. We're managing the halves. We believe the customer is still engaged. And to your question, we can comp positive and expect to be able to target that in future quarters even if there's some softness in headwind in the pet companion animal category.
Our next question comes from the line of Steven Forbes with Guggenheim.
Hal, maybe a 2-part question on companion animal trends just to hit this topic again. The first is I'd be curious just to hear you speak to how you think rural migration household formation, existing housing turnover trends have impacted the outlook for pet as a whole as you see it today? And then secondarily, as you think about your member base, you commented that 50% of members have a dog and cat. So I'm curious if you can just maybe help explain to the group here what you're seeing as it pertains to wallet share of movement across those key customer cohorts where you maybe don't serve them to the level you need to be serving them? How long does it take to onboard them post localization? Like what gives you really the conviction that you can pull them back?
Yes. Steven, I appreciate the question. On rural migration, I'd say 2 things there. One, certainly the post COVID, so since 2020, when you look at mobility stats, there's been a strong reversal of trends kind of versus pre-Covid. So kind of pre-COVID that you saw urban mobility increasing at the expense of ex-urban, rural and even to some degree, suburban. Post COVID, you've seen the exact opposite with urban exodus, I would say, through '21, '22 and '23, that was -- the Exodus was much stronger in ex-urban. I think now you're seeing it more balance between suburban and ex-urban. But you're still seeing mobility out of urban markets into suburban, ex-urban and rural.
I'd also just add that when we look at our store base versus those sorts of geographic cuts, the more rural the store, the stronger the comp is, to a little insight there on our overall customer trends.
On our member base, I'd say that not -- what we see with them on their pet purchases is very much a natural just ongoing evolution of the structure that's out there right now. You're seeing pet populations decline on dog, you're seeing pet populations modestly increase on cat. And you're seeing that play out in our business. So more broadly, like if you look at dog food, we were up somewhere in the mid- to high single basis points of comp share gain in Q1. If you look at cat similarly, we were up mid- to high single basis points in share gain in that category in the quarter. But because of mix because we have such a much lower share in cap versus dog, our overall share and overall food between dog and cat was flat. So share is stable. Actually, when you look at it by species, modestly growing.
Now what we -- we were growing at about 20 basis points of overall share gain collectively across those categories back in '23 and in '22. So that's the actions that we're taking now to kind of step back into that overall share gain. But to be very clear, we are gaining share in dog food by itself in cat by itself, but when it mixes, it makes us to a flat share on food in total.
Our next question comes from the line of Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research.
You mentioned that weather was neutral for the quarter, but we had some very distinct national weather trends, for example, lack of snow and warm in the Rockies and cold and snowy in the Northeast. How is that set up for the second quarter as we move into spring and when might it do to your salesman?
Yes. Chuck, I appreciate the question. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, Q1 really unfolded in phases. And as we exited in March, you had an anomaly where you had kind of a cooler is north going and you had kind of the south warming up. As we mentioned, we saw strong spring sales in the South as we were exiting Q1, but kind of not yet the demand kicking in, in the north as we knew would [indiscernible] turned into April and kind of gotten past Easter and the lapping of Easter last year, you now see the north with the weather having improved, really kicking in. The South is holding. And we're in the midst of that seasonal ramp right now.
As Seth commented, we've seen strength in almost all of our garden businesses and all the related garden businesses. So whether it's things like agriculture, ag fencing, even some of the hard lines that are out in the agriculture space. Certainly, things like sprayers and chemicals, lawn and garden tools, live goods, riding lawnmowers, which is a critically important business for us right now as having an excellent year-to-date. So we feel really good about our business as we've turned the corner here into Q2, kind of 3.5 weeks in, as we mentioned, the business is running very much solidly in the range of our overall comp guidance for the year, and that's our expectation for the quarter as well. Thanks so much, Chuck, for the question.
So Victoria, that will wrap our call today. We will plan to release our earnings tentatively on Thursday, July 23 for our second quarter earnings. So please join us then. If you need anything, please don't hesitate to reach out. Thank you very much.
Thank you. That will conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
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Tractor Supply — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $3,59 Mrd (+3,6% YoY)
- EPS: $0,31 (verwässert)
- Comparable Sales: +0,5% (durchschnittlicher Warenkorb +1,6%, Transaktionen −1%)
- Bruttomarge: 36,2% (stabil vs. Vorjahr)
- SG&A: $1,07 Mrd (+6,1%; 29,7% vom Umsatz, +70 bp)
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Pet-Strategie: Fokus auf Fresh/Frozen (von ~80 auf >250 Stores bis Ende Mai, Ziel ~700 bis Jahresende), mehr Cat-Range, Rx‑Ausbau und Subscription
- Lokalisierung & Stores: >200 lokalisierte Stores mit besserer Performance; Rekord: 40 Neueröffnungen (Neue‑Store‑Produktivität 65–70%)
- Omnichannel & Marken: Final‑Mile‑Netzwerk wird ausgebaut, digitales Geschäft wächst kräftig; exklusive Marken (z.B. Retriever, Field & Stream) werden ausgebaut
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Guidance: Volljahres‑Ausblick bestätigt; Ziel: Comp‑Wachstum 1–3% für verbleibende Quartale
- Margenpfad: Bruttomarge soll in H2 stärken; SG&A‑Deleverage stärker in H1 wegen Investitionen und Store‑Cadence
- Investitionen: 11. Distributionszentrum startet Versand Anfang Q4; rund $10 Mio zusätzlicher Aufwand erwartbar (vorwiegend H2). Tarife bleiben unsicher; keine Refund‑Annahmen im Plan
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Companion Animal: Analysten hinterfragten Dauer der Schwäche; Management: Markt strukturell schwierig, eigene Share stabil aber unter Erwartungen; man erwartet flaches bis leicht negatives Pet‑Comp für das Jahr, Verbesserungen schrittweise
- Neukunden & Lokalisierung: Nachfrage nach Details zu Cannibalization/Local‑Lift; Antwort: Kannibalisierung modest und steuerbar, lokalisierte und Fusion‑Stores outperformen
- Kostenrisiken: Fragen zu Tarifen, Treibstoff und Preiselastizität; Management bleibt konservativ, hat keine zusätzlichen Annahmen zu Tarif‑Rückerstattungen
⚡ Bottom Line
Tractor Supply bestätigt die Jahresprognose und zeigt ein resilienteres Stammgeschäft mit klaren Wachstumshebeln (Stores, Lokalisierung, Final Mile, Digital). Hauptrisiko bleibt die Companion‑Animal‑Kategorie sowie Tarif‑/Kraftstoffdruck; Anleger sollten H1‑Margenbelastung vs. H2‑Erholung sowie die Wirkung der Pet‑Initiativen beobachten.
Tractor Supply — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Tractor Supply Company's conference call to discuss fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 results. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that reproduction of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization of Tractor Supply Company. And as a reminder, this call is being recorded. Your host for today's call is Mary Winn Pilkington, Senior Vice President of Investor and Public Relations for Tractor Supply Company. Now first up is a year-end video.
[Presentation]
I would now like to pass the call to our host, Mary Winn Pilkington. Mary Winn, please go ahead.
Thank you, Elissa. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your time and participation in today's call. On the call today, participating in prepared remarks are Hal Lawton, our Chief Executive Officer; and Kurt Barton, our CFO. We will also have Seth Estep, Rob Miles, John Ordus and Colin Yankee, joined the call for the question-and-answer portion. .
Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the floor for questions. Please note that a supplemental slide presentation has been made available on our website to accompany today's earnings release. Now let me reference the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This call may contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including the future operating and financial performance of the company.
In many cases, these risks and uncertainties are beyond our control. Although the company believes the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations or any of its forward-looking statements will prove to be correct, and actual results may differ materially from expectations. Important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements are included at the end of the press release issued today and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The information contained in this call is accurate only as of the date discussed. Investors should not assume that statements will remain operative at a later time. Tractor Supply undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed in this call. As we move into the Q&A session, please limit yourself to 1 question to ensure everyone has the opportunity to participate. If you have additional questions, please feel free to rejoin the queue. We appreciate your understanding and cooperation. We will also be available after the call for further discussions. Thank you for your time and attention this morning.
Now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Hal.
Thank you, Mary Winn, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I want to recognize our team members, first responders and local communities impacted by winter storm Fern. Our teams moved quickly to support our neighbors during challenging times and continue to do so, and it reinforces our role as a dependable supplier when our customers need us most.
Turning to the business. The opening video highlights the progress our team made in 2025 and does a nice job of setting the context for the discussion that will follow in this earnings call. As with any year, 2025 was not without its challenges, and I want to thank our more than 52,000 Tractor Supply team members for staying focused on our purpose, operating with discipline and making the adjustments necessary in a dynamic environment while continuing to evolve the business. That work positions us to build on our strategic advantages and remain a consistent share gainer in an attractive market.
Before getting into the details, I want to acknowledge that our fourth quarter results came in below our expectations. Results reflected a shift in consumer spending with essential categories remaining resilient while discretionary demand moderated and emergency response was absent versus last year.
There were 3 primary drivers of our performance that I'd like to drill down on. First, as we cycled the benefit from last year's Hurricane Helane and Milton storm recovery, it became clear that it contributed more meaningfully to our results in 2024 than we had originally estimated. In contrast, 2025 was a historically quiet storm season with no hurricanes making landfall in the Continental U.S. for the first time in a decade.
We now estimate this dynamic represented roughly 100 basis points headwind to comps, most pronounced in the South Atlantic. The second main driver was big ticket categories, excluding emergency response, and they experienced a step down versus our trend in Q3. Our inventory levels and pricing were competitive, and we do not believe we lost share in these categories. Instead, we believe customers were more selective and that some discretionary spending shifted towards categories outside of our addressable market in the fourth quarter.
And lastly, performance across select holiday periods and seasonal categories such as holiday decor, toys, things like dogs, toys and snacks, power tools, they were below our expectations. And this reflected a highly promotional holiday environment, combined with softer demand. Again, we believe these dynamics were category-specific, quarter-specific and broadly consistent with what we saw across retail.
At the same time, customer engagement remained healthy throughout the quarter and our consumable, usable and edible categories continue to perform very well, reinforcing the resilience of our needs-based model. We estimate we had 1 of our strongest quarters of share gain in Farm & Ranch, stayed disciplined on cost and continue to execute the fundamentals of the business while investing strategically in our growth priorities.
Now let's transition to the fourth quarter and full year 2025 results. For the fourth quarter, net sales increased 3.3% to $3.9 billion, with comparable store sales increasing 0.3% driven by modest growth in average ticket. Fourth quarter diluted EPS was $0.43, reflecting the combined impact of modest sales growth, elevated promotional activity and continued investment to support our strategic initiatives. Our digital business delivered high single-digit growth. We posted positive comps in 11 of our 15 regions. However, this strength was offset by the 2 regions in the South Atlantic, which declined mid-single digits as I mentioned previously, we're lapping storm activity.
Customer fundamentals remained solid during the quarter. Identified customer counts increased approximately 2%, while spend per customer moderated just slightly. From a category standpoint, consumable, usable and edible were strong, as I mentioned previously, and they delivered low mid-single-digit comparable growth, led by livestock, equine and poultry and wildlife supplies and our winter seasonal categories posted modest comp growth with cold weather conditions largely neutral for the quarter.
Again, as I mentioned previously, this strength was offset by continued pressure in big ticket emerging response categories, which together declined high single digits. Turning to the full year. 2025 was a year of steady progress as we navigated a challenging and uneven retail environment. Throughout the year, we stayed focused on executing the fundamentals of the business, serving our customers well and advancing our Life Out Here 2030 strategy.
Net sales increased 4.3% to $15.5 billion, driven by new store growth, the addition of Allivet and comparable store sales gains of 1.2%. Diluted earnings per share were $2.06, reflecting disciplined execution while continuing to fund strategic investments across the business. Total active customers and high-value customer retention continued to be strong and customer service scores once again reached all-time highs.
Neighbor's Club continued to grow, with membership representing more than 80% of sales. Team member engagement remained high and turnover stayed near historic lows, particularly at the store manager level. On the technology front, our digital business continued to scale in 2025, delivering high single-digit growth for the year, and this performance reflects continued improvement in personalization and conversion as well as our delivery capabilities.
More broadly on the technology front, we expanded our use of AI across the enterprise, including expanding our relationship with OpenAI. The capabilities are improving forecasting, inventory flow and team member productivity, helping us operate more efficiently and better serve our customers. A hallmark of Tractor Supply continues to be opening productive new stores. We opened 99 Tractor Supply stores and once again saw robust early new store productivity performance.
Our distribution centers delivered mid-single-digit productivity improvements for the year while maintaining excellent safety and engagement results. We also opened our first bulk distribution center in 2025, and we broke ground in Idaho on our 11th DC. As part of our Life Out Here 2030 strategy, 2025 was a year of meaningful progress in building capabilities to support long-term growth.
We focused on strengthening what we do best, while continuing to scale new initiatives that expand how we serve our customers and grow our share of wallet. On the stores front, we continue to embed localization into new stores and remodels with 160 stores localized as of year-end. With nearly 60% of our stores in the Project Fusion format, we continue to see attractive economics and improved customer relevance from our remodel program.
We also advanced our final mile delivery initiative, which lowers the cost to serve online orders and expands our ability to fulfill larger, more complex orders. During the year, we increased capacity and execution, expanding to more than 210 delivery centers covering nearly 25% of our store base. In direct sales, we ended the year with approximately 50 sales specialists covering 375 stores.
While both initiatives are still early, we're encouraged by the traction we're seeing in customer engagement, basket size and repeat behavior. In pet and animal prescriptions, 2025 was focused on building the foundation and integrating capabilities into the Tractor Supply ecosystem. While customer adoption progressed more gradually at the beginning that we have liked, Allivet accelerated throughout the year and delivered approximately $100 million in sales in the total year, reinforcing the customer demand in this category and the opportunity ahead.
Taken together, these initiatives strengthen our foundation, improved execution and positioned Tractor Supply for durable long-term growth. As we plan for 2026, we are preparing for a wide range of demand outcomes. We're planning for continued net sales growth supported by new store openings and improved comp sales and better leverage as our investments mature.
In our view, the broader environment remains uncertain with a wide range of potential consumer spending outcomes. We continue to see mixed signals, including an all-time high stock market and a strong projected tax refund season. However, that's alongside declining consumer sentiment and a robust national debate around affordability. These dynamics are not unique to Tractor Supply. We believe our needs-based model, strong customer relevance, scale and disciplined execution positions us favorably.
And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Kirk for further insights on our results and our outlook for 2026.
Thank you, Hal, and hello to everyone on the call. I'd like to start by walking us through the cadence of the quarter. Looking at comp sales, October started soft as we lapped the hurricane response, followed by a rebound in November as they got colder and the Hurricane lap dissipated. We entered the final 5 weeks of the year with relatively flat quarter-to-date comps.
December, inclusive of Black Friday produced modest gains. All accounts, broader retail sales growth, especially general merchandise stepped down in December. Average ticket increased 0.3%, driven by approximately 2 points of retail inflation, offset by softness in big ticket categories and a decline in units per transaction. The retail inflation was primarily the result of a higher commodity cost environment and selective price adjustments as higher product costs flowed through our supply chain.
The decline in [ UPT ] reflects the softness in certain discretionary seasonal and holiday categories. Turning to margins. Fourth quarter gross margin declined approximately 10 basis points year-over-year as ongoing cost management was offset by incremental tariffs, elevated promotional activity and higher delivery related transportation costs.
The largest variance versus our expectation was the promotional environment, particularly around Black Friday and Cyber Week as customers were more deliberate in how they allocated their spending. Our view is that these promotions were transitory and specific to the operating environment in Q4. Stepping back for the full year, gross margin expanded 16 basis points, underscoring the underlying strength of our margin structure despite the more challenging dynamics.
SG&A, including depreciation and amortization, increased approximately 70 basis points to 27.5% of sales, driven primarily by planned investments and fixed cost deleverage at the lower level of comp sales growth. These pressures were partially offset by continued productivity and cost control. Our expense management was a strong point for the quarter. SG&A inclusive of D&A expense increased 6% over the prior year, with nearly 2/3 of the growth rate attributed to new stores and the acquisition of Allivet, providing evidence of a more normalized cost structure.
Operating income declined 6.5% year-over-year, reflecting the combined impact of the modest sales growth, gross margin performance and the investments to support our key strategic initiatives. Our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter improved approximately 250 basis points to 19%, primarily reflecting the timing of certain tax planning initiatives, including a federal tax benefit discrete to the quarter representing half of the rate reduction. Average inventory per store was up approximately 5%. About 1/3 of the growth reflects the impact of tariffs, the remaining portion of the growth reflects our deliberate actions to support customer demand and in-stock levels going into 2026. We remain comfortable with our inventory position.
Taken together, while 2025 was not the year we had planned, some of the challenges we faced were largely transitory rather than structural. And we made meaningful progress strengthening the business as we head into 2026.
Let me now turn to our outlook. We view the upcoming year as a period of normalization for the business. For 2026, we expect total sales growth in the range of 4% to 6%, driven by continued new store openings and improving comparable store sales. We expect comp sales growth of 1% to 3% supported by continued improvement in average ticket as AUR growth trends are expected to continue, along with modest transaction growth.
From a gross margin perspective, we expect continued expansion driven by ongoing cost management initiatives, growth in our exclusive brands, retail media and continued supply chain efficiencies. These benefits are partially offset by delivery costs and tariffs. Overall, these positive gross margin drivers remain firmly in place. On the expense side, we expect measured SG&A deleverage. SG&A will experience some pressure from the opening of a new DC in the second half of the year and a more normalized incentive compensation burden in most quarters.
After several years of elevated investment, we expect [ G&A ] growth to moderate and move more in line with sales growth this year. Taken together, we expect operating margin in the range of 9.3% to 9.6%, which implies we can maintain operating margin at the midpoint of the range. For planning purposes, we are assuming an effective tax rate of approximately 22% and interest expense that is generally consistent with 2025, reflecting our ongoing approach to disciplined capital structure and leverage.
We are forecasting diluted EPS in the range of $2.13 to $2.23. As we manage the business, we are anchored to the midpoint of our guidance, while maintaining flexibility to respond to changes in the operating environment. Net capital spending is expected to be in the range of $675 million to $725 million, with the majority focused on growth initiatives. We plan to open 100 new stores that are low-risk, high-return organic growth opportunities.
Our new store pipeline is robust, and we expect to see greater consistency of openings across the year. In 2026, approximately 50% of our new stores will be fee development, which continues to provide cost efficiencies, improved site quality and more favorable long-term economics. We also expect share repurchases between $375 million and $450 million, representing approximately 1% to 1.5% of shares outstanding.
While we remain focused on supporting our strategic priorities, we also expect those investments to increasingly self-fund. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. We will continue to invest in our flywheel, new stores, remodels, supply chain capacity, digital and newer growth initiatives like direct sales and final mile delivery while maintaining a competitive and growing dividend, consistent share repurchases and a strong balance sheet.
Overall, we believe this positions Tractor Supply to continue executing effectively and deliver long-term value for shareholders. As always, we view our results in halves rather than the quarters given the seasonality of the business.
Turning to the calendarization of key line items. We currently expect comp sales performance to be relatively balanced across the year, with each half contributing relatively equal to the comp sales growth. We expect every quarter to be within the range of 1% to 3% growth. We are planning for a more normalized spring season, which would result in a rebalancing of sales between Q2 and Q3.
While the first quarter began against tougher comparisons, recent winter weather has supported demand across our core categories. That said, importantly, a majority of the quarter remains ahead of us, with March representing more than 40% of first quarter sales, and each successive week becoming more impactful as spring conditions emerge across the country.
From a margin standpoint, we expect gross margin performance to be stronger in the second half of the year as comparisons ease and benefits from our new distribution center begin to flow through. SG&A deleverage is expected to be modestly higher in the first half, driven by an earlier cadence of new store openings, a more normalized incentive compensation and the lapping of strategic investments, which ramped up near midyear 2025.
We expect the cost of the new Idaho DC to add approximately $10 million of incremental expense on the year, most of this in the second half. We anticipate Q1 EPS to be comparable to the prior year as it bears a heavier burden of these 3 key SG&A factors I just mentioned. Given the prior year's compares, we expect stronger EPS growth in Q2 and Q4. So stepping back for a moment before I wrap up, I want to address the underlying earnings power of Tractor Supply.
While our recent earnings performance has been influenced by our comp sales trends, we have been transparent that the backdrop has not been conducive to achieving our long-term outlook. We continue to believe the company is capable of delivering 3% to 5% comparable store sales growth over time. As that growth materializes, operating leverage naturally follows. Our model shows an inflection point in the low 2% comp range.
As comps move above that inflection point, we would expect operating margin to improve by roughly 5 to 20 basis points per year. This will allow us to progress back towards our target operating margin over time, consistent with our long-term framework. To close, we remain focused on execution, productivity and advancing our Life Out Here 2030 Strategy, and we believe the actions we are taking position the business for durable long-term value.
Now I'll turn it back over to Hal.
Thank you, Kurt. As we begin 2026, we're staying focused on what is resonating most with customers across retail, value and essentials. Needs-based products are a core strength for Tractor Supply. We are effectively the grocery store for our customers' animals and pets with the scale, frequency and relevance that come with that role. That allows us to lead on value, invest with confidence and remain the dependable supplier our customers rely on every day.
While much of the country is still in winter mode, spring will be here before long, particularly for Southern markets. As that transition unfolds, we're committed to being a dependable supplier for our customers' spring needs while also bringing meaningful innovation and newness across the store to keep Tractor Supply relevant and differentiated.
This year, Chick Days will be bigger than ever with more stores participating and more selling weeks. Chick Days is retail theater like no other. It continues to be a powerful traffic driver with existing customers and a gateway for new customers, particularly [ backyard home centers ] and hobby farmers.
This year, we're leaning into chick health and wellness, expanding breed assortments and deepening education support for both new and experienced poultry customers. We're also extending Chick Days online to 365 days a year, and expanding our exclusive ImPECKables brand with more functional treats and toys. Taken together, these efforts reinforce Tractor Supply as the destination for poultry while driving differentiation, value and engagement across channels.
As we prepare for the spring selling season, we're leaning into targeted newness in the categories where customers are actively investing. That includes refreshed assortments in lawn and garden on our exclusive Groundwork brand, including expanded outdoor living and grilling accessories and also a stronger, more curated [ riders presentation ] in our flagship stores featuring Bad Boy, Cub Cadet and Toro.
We're also creating a dedicated in-store destination for outdoor power equipment and battery power tools, bringing together leading brands like Husqvarna and Dewalt, Toro and Dreamworks to make it easier for customers to shop and complete their projects. By midyear, we'll also be rolling out expanded outdoor and wildlife recreation aisles in approximately 500 stores. This includes a broader field and stream presence, extending beyond hardgoods into apparel and footwear, along with a more complete assortment of food and supplements to support wildlife feeding and recreation. These updates strengthen our relevance with customers who live and work outdoors and reinforce Tractor Supply as a destination for both everyday needs and seasonal pursuits.
Beyond Outdoor and Wildlife, we're also expanding our fresh pet food offering following a successful initial pilot with plans to add Fresh Pet to additional stores by midyear and continue building from there. At the same time, we're investing in our 4health private brand, including refreshed packaging, new fresh food products and updates to lines such as Shreds and Untamed. And Pet & Animal prescriptions with Allivet. We're focused on deeper integration, embedding prescription in our Vet clinics and pet wash experience and strengthening our subscription offering on tractorsupply.com.
As we move from spring into summer, we'll then layer in seasonal moments like our Ameraucana program, combining patriotic assortments and in-store experiences with continued focus on value and care for animals. Taken together, these efforts reflect our ongoing investment in private brands and curated assortments that strengthen value, support margins and reinforce our role as a dependable supplier.
Combined with continued investments in our core flywheel, we're advancing our Life Out Here 2030 Strategy and strategic initiatives. Two of our highest priority initiatives are direct sales in Final Mile, which are gaining traction and becoming increasingly important in how we serve customers with larger, more complex and needs-based purchases. In direct sales, we're continuing the rollout of this initiative, including building the capabilities, tools and operating discipline needed to scale along with plans to approximately double our sales force over the course of the year.
Turning to Final Mile. Our focus in 2026 is on lowering the cost and improving the efficiency of our digital order delivery while enabling large and bulky store purchases and supporting direct sales. To do that, we're planning to add more than 150 new hubs this year, take us to approximately 375 hubs, covering more than 50% of our stores by year-end.
One way to think about that level of coverage is that it gives us last-mile delivery capabilities across more than 1,200 stores and reaching over 15 million customers. We are also increasing utilization of our own delivery network while further integrating with gig providers, allowing us to optimize final mile execution and lower our cost per delivery across all channels.
While both direct sales and Final Mile are still early, we're encouraged by the progress we're seeing and the role these capabilities can play in expanding how we serve our customers. Importantly, they sit behind continued investment in our core growth engine, including opening approximately 100 new stores, advancing our store remodel program with roughly 160 to 175 Fusion projects with localization, expanding distribution capacity with our new Idaho DC and continued investment in digital capabilities.
Taken together, these investments support a disciplined, balanced approach to growth and represent meaningful long-term opportunities as we work to address a larger share of our approximately $225 billion total addressable market. To close, we remain confident in the long-term opportunity for Tractor Supply. We operate a differentiated needs-based model that has proven resilient across cycles, and we continue to gain share in a highly fragmented market.
The actions we're taking, investing with discipline, strengthening our core and scaling our capabilities thoughtfully support a year of greater normalization in 2026 and position the business to deliver more consistent performance and create long-term value for our shareholders.
With that, thank you for joining us this morning. We'll now open the call for questions.
Thank you, Hal. Before we move to Q&A, one note for planning purposes. Due to a scheduling conflict, we will release our first quarter 2026 earnings on Tuesday, April 21. For the balance of the year, we anticipate returning to our normal reporting cadence. We just wanted everybody to be able to get that on their calendars now.
With that, I'll turn it over to Elissa to begin our Q&A session.
Thank you, Mary Winn. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Steven Zaccone with Citigroup.
2. Question Answer
I wanted to start on gross margin. So it sounds like for '26, you're still expecting expansion, is going to be second half weighted. Should we anticipate gross margin decline in the first half? And then specifically on promotions, what gives you confidence that the promotions will be confined to the fourth quarter and that persist to the 26?
Steve, it's Kurt. Yes, thank you for the question. To your point on gross margin, gave guidance on, our expectation is that we can continue to expand gross margin. The fundamentals of our gross margin initiatives are still very solid. There is a stronger opportunity for expansion in the back half of the year, but we are not anticipating gross margin retraction in the first half of the year. The puts and takes that we described on fourth quarter, as I mentioned, very transitory. Our gross margin initiatives, our cost management is still producing a strong opportunity for gross margin expansion, albeit modest particularly in the first half of the year.
The next question comes from the line of Jonathan Matuszewski with Jefferies.
It sounds like 1Q started against tough comparisons, but you saw some outsized demand due to winter storm Fern recognizing that March is a large chunk of the quarter, with each quarter anticipated to be between 1% and 3%, is that to suggest the quarter-to-date trend is in that range? Or could you just clarify maybe how the first couple of weeks in the quarter in aggregate are trending?
I think you've encapsulated it pretty well. As you mentioned, the first few weeks, we were lapping winter weather from last year in storms and it was warm in the first 3 weeks of this year. And so we had offsetting comps there. And then, of course, with Winter Storm Fern, we had the flip where we were having strength due to storm preparations and storm recovery on top of some warmer weather last year. Case in point on the volatility that often happens in the beginning of the year, this week, as an example, last year was the warmest in 35 years, and then week this year is the coldest in 35 years.
So you get these extremes in the first part of the year. But net-net, to your point, we are tracking at above our plan for the quarter-to-date. But as you said, there's still a lot of sales left to go. The month of January is like 30-ish percent of our sales. The month of March is 40-ish [indiscernible]. We certainly need the weather to turn in the south in late February to deliver on our plan for March.
But in addition to spring coming on, which we know happens every year, just in a little bit different time, we're optimistic about the potential for tax refunds this year and I think that could be very similar to say 2018, and that would be the majority of that benefit would also be in the first quarter. So there are a number of things as we look out at the balance of the 7 weeks to go in the quarter that give us optimism but feeling good about the quarter so far, yes.
The next question is from the line of Bobby Griffin with Raymond James.
I just want to maybe talk about the discretionary weakness you referenced. I'm just curious, like, can you unpack that a little more? Do you think there's been a step function change where your customer, the more rule-based customers started to feel maybe some of the pressure other areas in this country felt across retailer? Or Is It really just weather-driven? Is anything there to help us understand that and what the maybe drivers will be for that to get better in '26 and beyond.
Bobby, when we reflect back on the discretionary for Q4 and a bit of the step down that we saw there, we do think that was specific to Q4 using the word transitory, I guess. And kind of hit on a few things there.
First, a lot of it was emergency response as we called out which is being specific to that quarter. The second one was really around kind of these like seasonal holiday categories that we really only participate in Q4 in. And so things like toys, holiday decor. Some of the -- even like in like dog snacks and dog treats, you see like a lift in those last 2 weeks kind of that are discretionary in their orientation. We just didn't see that. But as we head into 2026, we feel very good about our business.
Just based on Jonathan's question, just gave a little bit of a summary of how things are playing to date in the quarter. We feel very good about our big ticket plan for the spring. We've had 2 successful seasons in riders, even with kind of broader big ticket pressure in the market. So I feel very good about our setup as we head into the first half of this year and do think most of the step down we saw in Q4 was kind of onetime kind of transitory type things that happened in the month of December.
And I think you'll hear that a bit more across retail as it comes out. I mean, by all accounts, December stepped down versus the year-to-date and quarter-to-date if you look at almost any external data, as it relates to retail sales. And in particular, you see that in general merchant and big ticket as well. You see -- you saw kind of low price point gifting, things like beauty, and others have a good December. But I think most -- across most categories that were big ticket, you saw a pullback in December .
The next question is from the line of Kate McShane with Goldman Sachs.
Kurt, we wondered if you could walk us through the cadence of how you see tariff costs rolling in here maybe in the first half and how you're managing pricing as a result.
Yes, Kate, I'll share a little bit of what our assumptions are in 2026. And in summary, I'd say there's not that much variation to what we saw in the second half of 2025 as we've said before, we feel like we're basically halfway through the process of cycling through tariffs, tariffs have had at its base rate anywhere from 20 or 30 basis points of pressure. We've been able to offset that through great cost management initiatives.
In some cases, there are some -- there's price increases selectively like I mentioned in there. And we would anticipate that the impact in the second and the first half to be very similar. It's one of the key drivers of the average ticket increase. As we mentioned, there's some level of inflation in AUR. The biggest portion of that would be related to cycling the tariffs in the first half of the year. So not that much different. We step back, we look at -- at the tariff piece of the business, the team managed it really well, been able to maintain our margins related to that, and we anticipate similar in the first half.
The next question is from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.
You have expressed a lot of optimism that the model can eventually return to the algorithm. So under what conditions, economic or otherwise are necessary in order to restore the comp growth back to 3% to 5%, what's a reasonable time frame for that? And is the challenge today versus 10 years ago, that tractor has just achieved so much productivity gains during the last decade through all the initiatives deployed such that it's just going to be more difficult to generate the type of growth that the market had been accustomed to in the past because of the base being so much bigger in the market share being so much larger today?
Michael, thanks for your question. Good to speak with you this morning. We remain very committed to our long-term algorithm on our comp sales. We feel like we're on track and a path to return to those comp sales. And we think we've got the full suite of activities necessary to deliver that, including big investments we made in our core flywheel everything ranging from our DC capacity to all the investments we made in our stores and our remodel programs. Our new stores continue to provide excellent maturity curves, and we've got a number of our strategic initiatives as well. So we feel like the toolkit that Tractor Supply has had for the last 20, 30 years is a tried and true tool kit. We continue to add to it like we always have and feel very confident in our long-term algorithm. We think we're on the path back to that.
The next question is from the line of Robert Ohmes with Bank of America.
I was hoping you guys could actually talk a little more about the direct sales model and the profitability now, and it looks like you're going to keep ramping it up. Is there a how do we think about how many stores, how many sales specialists, what the -- how big it needs to be to really become profitable?
Yes. Thanks for the question. First, I'll just tell you, I'm very pleased with our performance so far. We saw volume average sales per rep, transaction value, average transaction volume, all increased in the month and in the quarter. In December, we finished with sales of over $2 million. We're seeing a month-to-month-to-month ramp as similar to new store maturation curve. Our growth is structural. Our direct [ sales app ] is core growth engine for us. Our people and our process investments are delivering returns, and we're seeing strong momentum exiting Q4 into 2026.
75% of our specialists are external and they're bringing this book of business with them and they are strong at selling. They all live the lifestyle, and they all have an average of 11 years of experience in the farm and ranch industry. And in the month of December, we had our first $1 million specialist. So I was able to go travel with that person. I could tell you just like phone calls throughout the day, the relationship he had with his clients, [ everybody call them ] all the stuff they need. You can just see that relationship building and building and building there.
As we look into 2026, we'll continue to invest in technology and training. We'll double our specialist count, as Hal mentioned. We have found that smaller training classes have been better than the bigger classes, and we're able to do more one-on-one training. And we're targeting around $50 million in sales in 2026. I also mentioned that we ended the year with just under 50 sales specialists. We've hired 9 at the end of December going into January, and we'll continue to build as this year goes on throughout the year.
The next question is from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird.
I wanted to follow up on an earlier question. Just on the inflation with, I guess, 200 basis points, a lot of that [ you're seeing ] with tariffs. I'm just curious if you could talk about the commodity side of that and what you're seeing and what your outlook for 2026 includes from a commodity standpoint. And then my other question is just around the garden centers, you're about 32% penetrated. What's the outlook there? Any plans to go faster or slower? Just kind of an update on that initiative?
Peter, Seth will take the first question on inflation and then I'll take the question on garden centers.
Yes. Peter, it's Seth. Thanks, Hal. As we look ahead to this year -- as we're looking at comp sales, some of what we put in the guide is we do anticipate a little bit of inflation, that kind of potentially at 1% to 2% range from an AUR perspective to really help drive that from a comp perspective with some modest obviously, transaction gains with that. .
And that's kind of a blend, right, with commodities trading kind of within a range in which we manage kind of every day. It's corns within that low to mid-4s, which we feel very comfortable with, with that outlook right now. And as we look ahead, as we strategically manage our kind of pricing, we'll continue to monitor how much is being driven by traffic, how much is being driven by AUR, and we'll continue to flex up and down accordingly. But yes, some modest continued inflation as we look ahead and the guide to deliver on that [ comp sales ] goal this year. .
And then circling back on Garden Centers. I'll start off by just saying we remain very pleased and committed to our being in the business of live goods and kind of the outdoor garden business. As expected over the last 5 years, the way we go after that has -- continues to evolve. So we have -- and we talked about this a little bit before, but we have kind of our now really large live goods, garden centers. We've got kind of a medium in size, we have a smaller size. And then we also have another solution set where we do pop-up tents out in our stores. And so gotten really good in our real estate model over the last few years of deciding which one of those solution sets is best for each store and then we deploy it as such.
And as I mentioned, in my opening remarks, we'll have well over 1,000 stores this year that we -- between garden Center Stores and pop-up garden centers, and we feel really good about it. And Live Goods is one of our best-performing categories last year as a business.
Our next question is from the line of Oliver Wintermantel with Evercore ISI.
How should we think about the lap of sales leaseback benefits? And as we move through 2026, should we expect any incremental contributions next year? Or does the comparison become neutral?
Ali, and Kurt can jump in here if we need to get anything to the. Some of the core details of it. I would just say, in general, the sale leaseback is going to be flat year-over-year from an operating income benefit. What I'd love to do is just step and just talk about how successful our real estate model that we introduced 2 summers ago is going.
We are now doing own development on 50% of our new stores that is providing 2 sets of benefits. One, the dollars that we would normally pay a developer, we're now able to reinvest that back in the store. That's saving us somewhere in the high single digit, call it, 10-ish percent in total cost to build.
And then we're also essentially procuring a lot of the materials that go into building our stores, and we're getting high single digit, call it, 10-ish percent savings there as well. So we are getting significant savings from the cost of building a new store that continues to allow us to deliver high IRRs. And now when we're in the market starting to sell some of those owned stores, we're seeing really strong cap rates on those as well. So the strategy has paid off in spades and more. We're very pleased with the results and the returns it's getting and the capital impact, the operating income impact, et cetera. I just can't say enough about the work that team is doing and the impact it's having on the company.
The next question is from the line of Michael Baker with D.A. Davidson & Company.
Can you talk about the timing of when you start to leverage some of the investments that you've made over the last few years. For instance, you're saying that delivery will still be a drag this year. At some point, I think the final mile investments you're making start to leverage themselves. Similarly with the [ Big Barn ] initiative, just wondering when we see a, I guess, would be a lower comp breakeven point from leveraging the past investments?
Michael, and thanks for the question this morning. I'll just start off by saying at a low 2% comp, I think that's a really good inflection point for retail. So that's why we're emphasizing it and putting it out there so folks kind of have that in their model. So I feel really good about that. And I think that stands tall in retail in terms of the right comp percent to be inflecting on your operating margin. .
Specific to the initiatives, on Final Mile, there are -- there is no kind of incremental operating expense being attributed into that this year. That -- while we're expanding it to twice the number of stores this year and getting to 50% store coverage, it's basically last year's benefits are paying for the rollout for this year. Incremental to that, there is significant cost savings that, that initiative will capture this year related to freight.
Specific on freight that we use for Roadie and also -- which is our gig provider as well as freight that we use to ship goods from our DCs that will now ship through our stores and then out to the customer for the Final Mile. And those are $10-ish million a year in savings that help improve our gross margin, but then also fund that initiative. So that initiative in many ways is kind of self-funding itself as it goes. On the same front, direct sales is doing the same thing.
As we talked about last year, we invested around 10 basis points of margin rate between those 2 initiatives. They are not further dilutive this year. on final -- direct sales, it's the same way. As Jon mentioned, we're going to double the class from this year, last year 50 to next year 100. The class of last year of 50 is basically paying for the investment of the next 50 this coming year. And so there's not incremental dilution on either one of those from a rate perspective, and that's what allows us to achieve that breakeven just above the 2% comp run rate.
The next question is from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.
So I wanted to take the other half of that question. So as you've scaled out the [ self-help ] benefits from prescriptions and Final mile And direct sales, how do those build? Like when do you think that will become sort of a greater portion of the comp such that the overall trends become a lot less macro sensitive. Is there an inflection as this year progresses? And how does that look then in '27? And any quantification around that would be really helpful.
Yes. Thanks for the question, Chris. And what I'd say is if you take -- well, first off, I'd start by saying we expect those initiatives to provide material benefit this year in our comp. And they did have some nominal benefit in our comp last year. Last year at the beginning of the year, we kind of said, "Hey, look, don't -- we're going to get these things ramped up. We're making some investments in them. You'll be able to -- we'll be able to see some of the sales, but we're not going to be sharing those a lot, just because we wanted to get ramped up and get in a good spot. This year, we feel like those are off and running. As Jon said, we have 50 sales reps last year. We had the first 1 to hit $1 million. We did $2 million in the month of December.
We eclipsed that rate in the month of January. So we're seeing the right pace and cadence there. You guys can do the math on that. If you think about the number of reps and the pace we're running at, you can see the dollars that we would roughly be targeting this year, and that starts to have a material 40-ish basis point impact on comp. And the same thing starts to happen in Pet and Rx as we start to scale that up as well, and we start to see the strong growth rates we see in there, and then that starts to add to it as well.
And so feeling really good about these initiatives. And Final Mile, as we talked about, is really it has 3 purposes. It's driving cost down on our delivery. It's enabling the direct sales as well. But really, it's also providing a means for us to be able to fulfill future demand as delivery becomes more and more a way of life for everyone. So feeling great about all 3 initiatives. They're all on track and doing really well.
The next question is from the line of Peter Keith with Piper Sandler.
Hal, I was hoping you could talk about the pet food category that was not called out as an area of outperformance within Q. I think there's been some concern out there with investors of maybe market share loss or maybe the category seeing deflation. What specifically did you guys see in Q4? And what are you expecting for pet food in '26.
Peter, this is Seth. Thanks for the question. relative to Pet, I would approach Pet and how we're thinking about it in kind of 3 different kind of frameworks, particularly as we look ahead for kind of 2026 and beyond. The first thing I would just say is Pet does not have to over deliver an outsized growth for us to achieve our overall comp targets. We're needs-based, multi-category retailer. We have a history of balancing our full portfolio to deliver our comp growth rates.
And there's not -- we're really not relying on any single category kind of going forward. The second way I'd look at Pet is also from a share perspective. We're not seeing any indication that we're losing share in pet. We're holding our own, we might not be at the outsized pace that we were over the course of the last couple of years, but the data that we get is a very data-rich industry that we're holding our own. We're holding trips. Our customer remains very engaged in the category. For an example, last year, we saw over 2 million pets come through our pet washes. Our PetVet clinics grew in sales over 20% in those stores.
So we're seeing really good engagement from our shoppers in the category itself. And then third, I would just say, hey, we're excited about what's ahead. I mean from the assortments, from the layouts, we're focusing on more localized assortments, making sure that we're allocating brand and space in our stores to the brands that fit kind of regional preferences in a given market.
As Hal mentioned as well earlier, we're continuing to expand kind of fresh and frozen into that category. That is the fastest-growing category in the space, and we'll have a few hundred stores this year in that particular area as well. And we're constantly looking to revitalize our brands as well, like for Health, continuing to see that kind of customer engagement and interaction.
And as the category returns to kind of historical growth, we feel like we're really well positioned to continue to maintain our share and being in a position to grow share long term here as well. So thanks for the question.
The next question is from the line of David Bellinger with Mizuho.
Maybe a bit bigger picture, but you mentioned some of these initiatives layering in for 2026, even maybe 40 basis points of comps from direct sales is very incremental. But if we back some of these things out, why is the core business of Tractor sort of underperforming now? We're talking about a wider range of outcomes. These outcomes basically widening out. And plus, can you square that away with some of this increased promo activity we heard about in Q4. Is that something contained to the period or something that we could see bleed into 2026 as well.
David, thanks so much for the question. We are very excited as we enter the year 2026. I think as always, as we commented, there's a wide range of outcomes, we think that are allowable for the year. And I think we're starting in the right prudent mentality. As it relates to promos, we really haven't seen that carry over into 2026. I admit there's been a lot of volatility in retail for these first 5 or 6 weeks.
And so I think time will tell on that. But to date, we've not seen that carryover. We all -- I would say all already have most part, our spring plans already laid out, and we're planning for a more normalized environment on that as well. But certainly, we'll be prepared to respond if necessary. But I'd just start out by -- just close by just saying we're feeling very optimistic about 2026. We like the setup we have coming into 2026. The first 5 or 6 weeks have been a nice start to the year. We're optimistic about the potential for tax refunds.
We're optimistic about the potential for a strong spring after 2 tough springs. We think we've got a lot of strategic initiatives underway. Our team is engaged. Supply chain has never been better. Stores have never been operating better. We think we've got a great setup as we head into 2026 here, and we're looking forward to getting into the year and coming back and reporting on some strong actuals for you.
Listen, we've hit the top of the hour, maybe even going a minute past. So we'll go ahead and call it now and wrap the call up. I do want to thank everybody for joining us. And as a reminder, we look forward to speaking with you again during our Q1 earnings on Tuesday, April 21. As always, please don't hesitate to reach out with any questions. Thank you for your time and attention today.
This will conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
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Tractor Supply — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Tractor Supply — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz Q4: $3,9 Mrd (+3,3% YoY), Comparable Stores +0,3%.
- EPS Q4: $0,43, unter Erwartungen wegen Promotions und Investitionen.
- Geschäftsjahr: Net Sales $15,5 Mrd (+4,3%), EPS $2,06.
- Kategorien: Consumables/Usables/Edible stark; Big‑Ticket & Holiday schwächer; Digital: hohes einstelligen Wachstum.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Transitorische Faktoren: Management führt Missratenes Q4 auf weniger Sturmeffekte (ca. 100 bp Headwind), erhöhte Promotions und saisonale Verschiebungen zurück.
- Strategische Prioritäten: Life Out Here 2030, Ausbau Final‑Mile‑Netzwerk, Ausbau Direct Sales und Integration der Allivet‑Akquisition (Pet Rx).
- Operationell: Fokus auf Produktivität (DCs, AI‑Forecasting mit OpenAI), 99 neue Stores 2025, 160 Store‑Localizations, erstes Bulk‑DC eröffnet.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- 2026 Sales: Wachstumserwartung 4–6%; Comp Sales 1–3%.
- Profitabilität: Operating Margin 9,3–9,6%; EPS $2,13–$2,23; effektiver Steuersatz ~22%.
- Kapital & Kapitalrückfluss: CapEx $675–725 Mio; ~100 neue Stores; Aktienrückkäufe $375–450 Mio (~1–1,5%.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Margen/PROMOs: Zweifel, ob hohe Q4‑Promotions anhalten — CFO erwartet Margenexpansion, aber vornahme der Verbesserung eher im 2. Hj.; kein erwarteter Margenrückgang H1.
- Tarife & Preise: Tarife drücken 20–30 bp; Preismaßnahmen teilweise weitergegeben; Tarife sollen weiterhin in H1/H2 wirken, aber steuerbar.
- Direct Sales & Final Mile: Direct Sales Ziel ~50 Mio Umsatz 2026; Spezialistenteam verdoppeln; Final Mile Ausbau auf >50% Stores, erwartete jährliche Einsparung ~ $10 Mio.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Q4 enttäuschte durch einmalige Sturmlappen, Promotions und saisonale Effekte; Management bestätigt langfristige Strategie, liefert konkrete 2026‑Guidance und investiert weiter in Final‑Mile, Direct Sales und Pet‑Rx. Kurzfristig gilt: auf Komps und Margen‑inflektion (~2% Comp‑Schwelle) achten; Aktienrückkäufe und starke Kapitaldisziplin bleiben bestehen.
Tractor Supply — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Tractor Supply Company's Conference call to discuss third quarter 2025 results. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that reproduction of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization of Tractor Supply Company. And as a reminder, this call is being recorded.
I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mary Winn Pilkington, Senior Vice President of Investor and Public Relations for Tractor Supply Company. Mary Winn, please go ahead.
Thank you, Alissa. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your time and participation in today's call. On the call today, participating in our prepared remarks are Hal Lawton, our Chief Executive Officer; and Kurt Barton, our CFO. We will also have Seth Estep, Rob Mills, John Ordus and Colin Yankee, joined the call for the question-and-answer portion. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the floor for questions. Please note that a supplemental slide presentation has been made available on our website to accompany today's earnings release.
Now let me reference the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This call may contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including the future operating and financial performance of the company. In many cases, these risks and uncertainties are beyond our control. Although the company believes the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations or any of its forward-looking statements will prove to be correct, and actual results may differ materially from expectations. Important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements are included at the end of the press release issued today and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The information contained in this call is accurate only as of the date discussed. Investors should not assume that statements will remain operative at a later time. Tractor Supply undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed in this call. [Operator Instructions] We appreciate your understanding and cooperation. We will also be available after the call for any further discussions.
Thank you for your time and attention this morning. And now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Hal Lawton.
Thank you, Mary Winn, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before getting into our results, I want to thank our more than 52,000 Tractor Supply team members. Their commitment, hard work and passion for Life Out Here continue to set us apart. By delivering legendary service they build the trust and loyalty that defined our brand, and their dedication to our lifestyle remains the foundation of our leadership in rural retail.
The Tractor Supply team delivered a strong third quarter, in line with our expectations, driven by ongoing share gains in our consumable, usable and edible businesses, agile execution through an extended summer season, and healthy transaction growth that was supported by our consistent focus on value and service. Our view is that our third quarter results largely mirrored the broader U.S. consumer environment augmented by some share gain. We saw a strong start to the quarter with spending trends moderating into September. This pattern aligned with what we observed across the retail landscape and, in our case, was amplified by 2 key dynamics. First, the tailwind of an extended spring in July; and second, the headwinds of an unseasonably warm weather in September and the absence of emergency response.
So let's start with a few top line sales highlights from the quarter. First off, we grew net sales 7.2% to a third quarter record of $3.72 billion. Comparable store sales increased 3.9%, driven by a balance of transaction growth of 2.7% and average ticket growth of 1.2%. And importantly, we had positive comps in all 3 months, positive comps in 11 weeks, a flat comp in 1 and negative comps in only 1 week. We are particularly pleased to extend our track record of comp transaction growth, a hallmark of Tractor Supply and a strong signal of the health and engagement of our customer base.
Our customers remain loyal and connected to their lifestyle, continuing to shop with us across categories and channels. And so let's turn to some customer engagement metrics, which remained a clear strength in the quarter.
First, customer satisfaction remains strong with scores continuing their positive trajectory, marking a record 17 quarters of consecutive improvement. Additionally, we achieved record Q3 highs across some key customer metrics, including total customer count, Neighbor's Club membership, reactivated customers and retention rates. Neighbor's Club continues to be a powerful differentiator and represents over 80% of our sales. We saw gains in member retention and spend per member, and our Home Count Heroes program continues to attract new customers. We're also making progress in how we serve customers using data. With the implementation of our new customer data platform last year, our team is now able to better personalize offers and messaging, helping us deliver more relevant and engaging experiences across channels.
Now let's shift to category performance in the third quarter. In line with recent quarters, the consumer remained discerning in their spending with categories that offer newness, strong value and needs-based continuing to outperform. Our comp sales growth was driven by strong seasonal performance in spring and summer products, along with continued momentum in our core year-round categories. As we moved from the second quarter into the third, seasonal categories strengthened meaningfully. After a more modest first half, we benefited from the bathtub effect of the extended summer season. We believe this was about a 50- to 60-basis-point contribution to the third quarter that would have historically been in the first half.
As it relates to seasonal, the team did a great job capitalizing on the elongated summer season, whether through strategically positioned inventory, enhanced financing offers or targeted labor investments, across the company, our merchants, to our store teams, to our supply chain, the organization leaned in to capture every single sales opportunity. And a great example of that execution was in our tractors and riders category, which delivered another strong quarter. Our industry-leading lineup of zero-turn mowers, combined with the disciplined inventory management and effective merchandising, continue to resonate with customers and drove share gains in this category in the quarter.
Additionally, other categories in seasonal that saw standout results were lawn and garden, sprayers and chemicals and power equipment parts and accessories. In our hallmark area of C.U.E., we saw stronger than average growth in livestock, [indiscernible], poultry feed and supplies and wildlife supplies. And in wildlife supplies, we continue to expand our position as a destination for outdoor enthusiasts across gun safes, deer corn, feeders, hunting [indiscernible], attracted, trail cameras and more. Our customers are responding to the depth of the inventory and the newness that we're bringing into the category including the launch of the Field & Stream brand. We now have nearly 50 SKUs in this brand available in store and online with a robust pipeline and development, and this launch strengthens our position as the destination for the Out Here lifestyle.
In discretionary and weather-dependent categories, particularly those in the fall season, such as recreational vehicles, grilling, safes and generators, sales continued to lag, reflecting both the cautious big ticket consumer and the absence of storm-related activity this year. As it relates to big ticket, overall, the strength in tractors and riders offset the softness I just mentioned in discretionary and emergency response categories, resulting in essentially a flat comp performance for the quarter. And finally, in companion animal, trends remained stable, but below company averages. The consumables business remains flattish, with seasonal strength in animal health, and we have seen some sequential improvement in pet supplies and equipment as well.
We also continue to execute well across our strategic initiatives and operational priorities. Digital sales grew at a low double-digit rate, representing a notable sequential improvement from the second quarter. Nearly 80% of online orders were fulfilled by our stores, highlighting the strength of our local network and store base. Same-day delivery and deliver from store outperformed, reinforcing the convenience and reliability of our model and the value of the final mile capabilities that we're building out.
Petsense by Tractor Supply marked its 20th anniversary and congratulations to that team, and it highlights the differentiated pet specialty model out in rural America. Our distribution centers delivered another strong quarter of productivity gains, supported by disciplined execution and efficient inventory flow across the network. This execution helped ensure we remained in stock on the product our customers count on, particularly with the extended seasonal demand.
Turning to pet pharmacy. We continue to see steady growth in orders and customer adoption. Each week, we're seeing an increase in Neighbor's Club subscriptions of prescription and over-the-counter products, leveraging our Allivet acquisition. Our customers continue to engage with our suite of pet services, which also includes pet washes and vet clinics.
On the real estate front, we remain disciplined and confident in our growth strategy. We opened 29 new Tractor Supply stores in the quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to 68. New store productivity continues to perform very well. Our pipeline of 2026 and into 2027 remains robust with significant runway for low-risk, value-creating organic growth ahead.
We also continue to invest in our existing store fleet. We now have 55% of our chain in the Project Fusion layout and nearly 700 garden centers. These are capital investments that provide a multiyear runway for growth and extend the terminal value of our stores. They help us be more relevant to both our core customers and our new customers, allowing us to garner a greater share of their spending and be the dependable supplier for their lifestyle.
Finally, we're making solid progress on advancing our Life Out Here strategic initiatives with a focus on direct sales in final mile. These initiatives strengthen our foundation for long-term growth and relevancy to our customers.
To summarize, the third quarter demonstrated the strength and consistency of our model, healthy customer engagement, strong execution and continued progress on our Life Out Here strategy. As we look ahead, we believe it is appropriate and timely to narrow our fiscal 2025 guidance. This guidance reflects our year-to-date performance and outlook for the remainder of the year. We remain excited about our strategy and our ability to deliver long-term value for our shareholders. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Kurt to provide more detail on our performance and outlook.
Thank you, Hal, and good morning to everyone on the call. As Hal highlighted, our third quarter top line performance aligned with our expectation. Each period of the quarter delivered positive results, supported by consistent transaction growth throughout. Sustained growth in transactions remains a hallmark of Tractor Supply and a key indicator of the health of our business model. In addition, all geographic regions across the chain delivered positive comparable sales for the quarter. These results underscore the broad-based nature of our performance and the consistency we are seeing in the business. This was especially evident in the performance of our C.U.E. categories, which outperformed the chain average and had mid-single-digit comparable sales growth every month of the quarter.
While the early part of the quarter benefited from the extended spring selling season, the later portion was pressured by lingering summer heat and dry conditions with no meaningful shift to fall weather.
As far as emergency response sales, while we did not receive a significant year-over-year sales lift from emergency response last year, we did have a hurricane event in 2024 that provided some benefit to sales. This year, we had no emergency weather-related activity, which represented a modest headwind to our third quarter comparisons.
Let me add a few additional comments on our comp sales to complement Hal's remarks. The transition from price deflation to modest inflation year-over-year was consistent with our expectations for the quarter. Average ticket increased 1.2%, driven principally by higher average unit retail. This was primarily the result of a higher, but stable commodity cost environment and, to a lesser extent, selective price adjustments as higher product costs flow through our supply chain.
Moving down our income statement. Our gross margin increased 15 basis points to 37.4%, in line with our expectations. This performance reflects the continued discipline of our merchant team in managing product costs and consistent execution of our everyday low price strategy. These benefits more than offset the anticipated pressure from tariff costs and higher transportation costs as we lapped last year's benefit from the opening of a new distribution center along with the modest cost increase to support our strategic investment and final mile delivery.
We remain very pleased with our ability to expand gross margin in this environment, which speaks to the strength of our cost management initiatives. Selling, general and administrative expenses, including depreciation and amortization, were $1.05 billion, up 8.4% from last year. As a percent of net sales, SG&A deleveraged 29 basis points to 28.1%. This outcome was in line with our expectations and reflects a few puts and takes. They were primarily 3 drivers of the deleverage. First, the planned strategic investments in our business to launch initiatives such as direct sales; second, higher incentive compensation from stronger performance, primarily at the store level and the lap from last year's lower accruals; and then third, a lower benefit year-over-year from our sale-leaseback strategy. These factors were partially offset by ongoing productivity initiatives and leverage and fixed costs from the stronger sales performance.
Importantly, within gross margin and SG&A, we view our investment spending as critical to supporting our strategic priorities and long-term growth while continuing to balance expense discipline with the opportunities ahead.
Our effective tax rate decreased to 21.0% from 22.3% in the third quarter last year, largely due to the timing of planned tax strategies for the purchase of federal tax credits, which we expect to normalize over the full year. On a year-to-date basis, our effective tax rate is 22.3%, just 10 basis points higher than last year's rate.
Diluted earnings per share was $0.49, up from $0.45 in the prior year. Our inventory position remains in excellent shape. Our average store inventory is up a modest 3.4%, reflecting healthy sell-through and strong inventory management by the team. Year-to-date, we've returned more than $600 million of capital to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
As we look ahead, we're focused on finishing the year with the same discipline and agility that have guided our results year-to-date. The fourth quarter carries typical seasonal variability, but we're confident in our ability to respond quickly to changing conditions and deliver within our outlook range.
For the fourth quarter, we anticipate comparable store sales growth in the range of 1% to 5%, reflecting a wider set of possible outcomes given the current consumer environment. And keep in mind, winter weather is often the primary driver of our fourth quarter business, more so than the holidays and the related gift buying. As a result of this outlook, we are narrowing our fiscal 2025 guidance range. We now expect net sales growth of 4.6% to 5.6%, comparable store sales growth of 1.4% to 2.4%, operating margin between 9.5% and 9.7% and diluted EPS in the range of $2.06 to $2.13.
Shifting further out, while we are not giving formal guidance for 2026, and with a caveat that we are still in the planning process and the macro environment can change rapidly, I thought it would be helpful to make a few comments about how we are thinking about next year.
As we look to 2026, we expect to open 100 new stores compared to 90 this year. This increase reflects our continued confidence in the strength of our new store economics and the long-term growth potential of our model. We anticipate a consistent pace of openings throughout the year. For 2026, we are optimistic about maintaining the step-up in comps that we are forecasting for the second half of this year. We expect transactions to remain a strength, with average ticket staying positive and the early benefits of our strategic investments contributing to that momentum. This level of comp sales growth should also support progress in our operating margin rate. To that end, we would anticipate fiscal 2026 to be a more normalized year as it relates to our investment levels and the corresponding pressure on operating margin.
Margin rate expanding proportionately as comp sales growth increases beyond that level.
Stepping back, with our peak capital investment cycle as a percent of sales now behind us, we believe 2026 will reflect continued P&L normalization. This progress positions us to deliver solid sales growth with the margin improvement opportunity in line [indiscernible]
Life Out Here strategy. For the balance of the year, our priority remains on being a dependable supplier, delivering compelling value and providing more meaningful in-store and online experiences. Let me share some of the key in-store and merchandising activities that we have planned. We remain excited about the continued momentum of our Hometown Heroes program, which is part of our Neighbor's Club benefits for military service members, veterans and first responders.
This year in the weeks leading up to veterans [indiscernible] to connect with our communities in very special ways from Touch a Truck events to Marathon [indiscernible] for kids to thank you to our hometown heroes and honor wall. These types of events create a lot of energy and excitement for stores. And if you get a chance, it's a great day to be in them.
The winter and holiday season always create [indiscernible]. It's a sense of fun and excitement across our business as our teams showcase the best in Tractor Supply for our company leaning into that responsibility with depth of inventory, the right price and fresh and trusted brands that reinforce our relevance.
While holiday gets the spotlight, it's winter readiness that drives the heart of our business and where we consistently show up for our customers when they need us most. And once again, our now famous [indiscernible] holiday restrictors capturing customer attention and social [indiscernible] great price. And this year's tool to event brings outstanding value to our customers with leading brands and exclusive TSC offerings in power tools, accessories and storage.
This event highlights us as a gifting destination for the homesteader lifestyle. Our holiday sets always bring energy and excitement to our stores. But as I said, what truly drives our business in the fourth quarter is the weather. And when winter weather arrives, our customers know they can depend on Tractor Supply. From localization to direct sales to pet and animal Rx to Final Mile, exclusive and private brands and retail media, the team is fully engaged in executing detailed road maps that will drive growth and long-term value creation.
To close, we operate in a large, attractive market that rewards consistency, connection and authenticity to a lifestyle. Our investments in our new store base, in our existing stores, in our technology, in our supply chain and in our talent are strengthening our competitive advantage and enabling us to consistently gain share. Combined with strong new store returns, ongoing rural migration and disciplined expense management, we believe we are well positioned to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.
With that, let's open up the call for questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Steven Forbes with Guggenheim.
2. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. Hal, curious if you can give us an update specifically around the direct sales rep build-out. And maybe how many you plan to have in place by year-end? What will store -- the final mile coverage be on a percentage of the store base? And then lastly, just like how should we be thinking about the benefit of the incremental sales potentially offsetting the initial start-up costs, right, associated with the initiative next year? It sort of sounds like you're implying that there's a potential sort of net benefit to margin next year as this program ramps and you start getting the benefit of sales flow through?
Steven, thanks for joining us on the call, and thanks for the question about direct sales. I'll give a couple of high-level comments and then turn it over to John to provide further detail. But at the highest level, what I'd say is we remain incredibly bullish and confident in our direct sales initiative. It's off to an excellent start, right on top of the expectations that we set at the beginning of the year in terms of rollout sales rep ramping, the sales attributed to that ramping, et cetera. As we've been clear this year, there was some expense investment that we've made in that business to get it launched and ramped. That's embedded in the guidance that we've been giving throughout the year.
As it relates to next year, we are looking for the initiative to self-fund itself. So there would be no further incremental investment into the initiative as it's ramping now and starting to self-fund itself. I'll turn it over to John to give some of the highlights on the number of reps we've hired recently and over the last 9 months and how they're doing on sales and what our outlook for next year is.
Yes. Thanks, Stephen. Our direct sales business continues to scale rapidly with reps covering -- we're over 300 stores now. I think it's 312 as of today. Our big barn customers are comping at nearly 50%, with our direct sale specialists working directly with them. And we're selling over $200,000 a week now in sales and continue to ramp pretty fast. We're taking that legendary service that our stores do a great job in, and we're taking it out to the big barn customer. I'll give you just a quick example of a recent customer. So customer in the Florida market was buying feed at a competitor somewhere else. After 3 visits and it normally takes about 3 to 4 visits for us to complete that sale, that customer decided to move to us. They're buying 80 bags of feet, not 2 skids of feet, buying them every other week, and we're able to create that relationship and an ongoing relationship. And then we'll continue to build on that basket as we go.
Our team builds these relationships with our customers and our specialists have over 10 years -- on average, 10 years of experience in this industry and 100% of them live the lifestyle. So we're very pleased with the people we've hired. We're very pleased with where we're at. We've done 4 cohorts now for training classes. The first, obviously, class in April, and that's starting to ramp up faster, and we're seeing that ramp as each week as that class ramps up.
To answer your question on specialists, we're at 48 specialists right now. We'll continue to look at markets this -- for the remaining of this year where we'll have modest growth with another 8 to 10 reps. And as we get to next year, we'll continue to file the final mile team as they grow out there, we'll let them get established and then we'll come in a little bit behind them, and then we'll start doing direct sales in those same markets, where average ticket continues to be strong, about 7x as the company average, and we're very pleased with what we're seeing in the the departments that are doing -- that are driving the sales of the departments that we thought they would feed fencing and Equine being the big one.
The next question is from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.
The question is on any changes you're seeing around the consumer behavior who lives in the Life Out Here environment? Especially because the perception is that trends have slowed quarter-to-date and folks are wondering is that due to just the weather? Or is there something more that's going on?
And then as part of it, you were helpful in giving some color on the contribution from your initiatives $200,000 in incremental sales per week. If you could build on that and give us a sense for how you think about that contribution as you move into next year across all of the initiatives that you have in place?
Michael, and thanks for joining the call today, and good morning to you. I'll start out first just on the state of our consumer. Our consumer remains strong, resilient. We shared some of the metrics in our prepared remarks, but we had exceptional customer metrics in Q3, whether it relates to engagement and their shopping patterns or whether it relates to overall customer satisfaction. Those trends have not changed dramatically as we moved into Q4, very much steady as she goes. I'll highlight a couple of things on that.
As we all know, the core component of that is our C.U.E. business. Our C.U.E. business continues to run very stable and very much in line with our year-to-date trends, and that's the fundamental underpinning some foundation of our business. Certainly, would acknowledge that the first couple of weeks here, 3 weeks or so of October, have had unfavorable weather for us. But it's the last few days started to get cool across the country, and we feel very good about the outlook for the balance of the quarter. That's reflected in our guidance of 1% to 5% comp.
And as we talked about in our prepared remarks as well, the biggest driver of variation in our sales into Q4 is a winter storm. And if you go back over the last decade or so, it's about 50-50 in those last 2 weeks if you get a polar vortex or a really, really significant cold snap. You look at like 2018, I think, is a great example for this quarter where it started out warm in October, very similarly. Our first couple of weeks were tougher comps. There was a government shutdown going on and holiday sales that year were some of the weakest holiday sales in the last decade. And we still put up a 5.7% comp for that year -- I mean for that quarter because the last 2 weeks, we had incredibly strong winter business. And we think our guidance reflects -- if you go back over the last decade plus, we're right in that -- the guidance range we've given that midpoint to 3% comp is even if you exclude like '20 and '21 where we had really high comps those 2 years, you exclude those, our center point still right at about 3% for comp for Q4.
So we feel really good about the guidance we've given in Q4. It is all about the cold weather and winter that starts to happen in December. We're really optimistic about our holiday. We've got a lot of things locked and loaded for that. Our Hometown Heroes event should give us the opportunity to get into the market very early in a very unique way for Tractor Supply. So just can't say enough positive things about how we're thinking about the balance of Q4, and we feel as bullish on Q4 as we did 3 months ago on our most previous earnings call.
As it relates to the comments John made on direct sales, Michael, I'd say a few things. First off, John mentioned, we've got a little over 40 sales reps right now, 48 sales reps in place. I'd say 20 to 25 of them are really doing the bulk of the sales driving right now out of that first cohort, second cohort of classes, and driving that $200,000, $250,000 a week we're seeing right now. And we're ramping sequentially every single week. So we feel really good about the continued benefit that, that's going to drive for us into next year. And we've always talked about 2026 would be when you start to see the impact of the initiatives in our results.
At our next earnings call, we certainly will be providing guidance for '26 and more detail on how the initiatives layer into that guidance, but no doubt, direct sales will be a complement and a driver of our growth next year. Thanks so much for the question, Michael.
The next question is from the line of Kate McShane with Goldman Sachs.
We wanted to ask a few more questions around pricing and tariffs. The color you gave around ticket was helpful. How should we be thinking about ticket in Q4, especially when it comes to like-for-like price increases? And just when it comes to the change that we saw in the narrowing in the top line of guidance today, how much of that is because of the change in terms of what you're expecting to flow through in terms of price?
Kate, this is Seth. Thanks for the question. For tariffs and kind of pricing as we look ahead, I would just kind of take a step back first and just say, first and foremost, that I'd just really highlight the team that we have the tools and the team in place and have done a really nice job up to this point to navigate. And at this point, we're about halfway through the initial incremental tariff impact kind of year-over-year as it's kind of flowing through to the P&L. We have taken some price where we have needed to here and there. Where we have, we have not seen a lot of elasticities yet. It has driven a little bit of AUR, but not a lot of elasticities.
When you think about a look ahead, I would just say our top priority really is to continue to be that advocate of value for our customers. Our guidance implies that we're going to continue to navigate the additional costs that flow through to the P&L in Q4 as a result of these tariffs. Where we do take price, we're going to continue to be surgical. We do have a portfolio approach. As you know, C.U.E. is such a big part of our business, 40% to 45%. And you think about that and mostly domestic based on that. It continues to be operating within kind of in line with where we are kind of today and foresee that kind of going forward.
So as we think about price, as we look ahead, again, we're going to continue to navigate. Our focus again is on value perception. It's on managing margins. And at the end of the day, we're going to continue to make sure that we are priced right to make sure that we continue to take market share.
The next question is from Scot Ciccarelli with Truist.
So Kurt provide some comments on '26. So when you guys look at next year and the OI margin expansion you referenced, is the potential on the 2%-plus comp coming from SG&A leverage? Is it coming from growth? Is there a mix? Can you just provide any more color or clarity around the thought process around that?
Yes, Scott. What you heard from me in my remarks, I'd summarize by saying we expect and see momentum in our gross margin expansion in 2026. The pressures on SG&A that you saw this year, we had said we were going to make a very purposeful investment to launch Final Mile and direct sales and that was going to put 15 to 20 basis points of pressure on operating margin in 2025. As you heard Hal mentioned just a second ago, the next cohorts and the 2026 launch we anticipate paying for itself, and there's no incremental pressure on SG&A. So between that and some of the transitory type items that were pressured this year, SG&A has less pressure in 2026 as we see it today and allowing us to be able to leverage at a lower, more normalized comp rate as I mentioned in that low 2% range.
And just as an example, for Q3 and even our expectation for Q4 of this year with 20 basis points of pressure on initiatives on year-over-year pressure from incentive comp just compares and even some timing on the benefit or the pressure on sale leaseback. You look at the core of the business and SG&A is in a really good shape. And it's really another great example of how, at this point, we can leverage SG&A at a lower comp rate and be able to grow operating margin modestly if we achieve that low to mid-2% range. And it's really about being able to move past the investments. And I hope that helps in regards to seeing the potential for next year.
The next question is from the line of Steven Zaccone with Citigroup.
I wanted to ask on the same-store sales growth, so to follow up on Michael's question earlier. The fourth quarter, why does the low end of the guide include 1 comp? Third quarter was back to Algo. So just help us understand why there's a wider range for the fourth quarter? What gets you to the low end versus the high end? And then as we think about '26, thanks for the preliminary views, is there anything to be mindful of first half versus second half just since inflation was a factor in first half versus second half of this year?
As it relates to Q4, it's really just reflective of the range of outcomes that we see in the fourth quarter, as we've mentioned previously, cut it dominantly based on weather. I think if you go back and look at our kind of 10-year trend on the fourth quarter, that's -- it's kind of the range that we've seen historically in this quarter. And anyway, so I'd just say that. That's kind of reflective of what we're seeing. The second thing I'd say, as it relates to next year, there's really not a lot of ins and outs on the sales side for next year. A little bit of maybe of Q3 benefit I referenced in my earnings scripts that might flow into Q2. But other than that, I think the sales should be pretty straightforward. You probably got a little more AUR benefit in the first half of the year than the second half of the year, at least what we know now. Kurt mentioned, we've got a DC opening next year. That's got a little bit of a start-up cost that will impact operating margin in the first half, but we get the cost of goods benefit on that on the second half from a new discount we get with our vendors for opening up a new DC that should pretty much wash itself out for next year just between the 2 halves a little bit.
So I'd say nothing too out of the ordinary next year. I think that's one of the big things in Kurt's prepared remarks, we were trying to get across -- we expect it to be very much more of a normalized year than we've had in the last 5 or 6 years, whether that's across our P&L, whether that's across commodity deflation, inflation, et cetera.
The next question is from the line of Zach Fadem with Wells Fargo.
Kurt, on your '26 comments, maybe we could talk a bit more about the comp building blocks. Maybe we talked a little bit about direct sales, maybe we could touch on Allivet. I'm curious how you think about other things like commodity inflation and tax refund stimulus. And adding this all up, is it fair to anticipate a return to comp algo in '26?
The information that I've shared thus far is about the length of what, at this point, I think it's appropriate to share on our thoughts for 2026. It's really been intended to say the P&L is more normalizing. And at a run rate relatively consistent with what you're seeing in the second half of this year, there's an opportunity for margin inflection. We certainly will be able to share some of the details on how we build up to our guidance range for comp sales in the back half of the year.
Things that we've said thus far that I'll just reiterate that it's important to understand, we see AURs continuing to be in a positive scenario the back half of this year and going into 2026. Transactions continue to be a core foundation for our comp sales growth, and we anticipate that for 2026. So in general, the consumer continues to engage in the lifestyle. We have a solid demand for our core business. We anticipate transactions and ticket to both contribute. The strategic initiatives, which just launched this year, including Allivet, we're excited about the momentum. We anticipate that each of them will give some contribution. But I would just say at this point, early in each of those stages, those contributions are important to be able to show the acceleration of the momentum of the business, but won't be the key drivers of the comp sales growth. And we'll give you more information on what our range is and what the key contributors are in our January call.
The next question is from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett Research Advisors.
Maybe a question for Seth or John or maybe Rob. Given the increasing tariff drop, curious if you make any changes to your seasonal assortment for the holiday some other retailers have talked about swapping out certain products? And I guess, if so, how that supplementing of assortments could impact sales or gross margins here in the fourth quarter?
And then just 1 quick 1 follow-up for Kurt. I think historically, your leverage gets you about 15 bps above or below. Is that -- would that still be the case based on that low 2% potential comp next year?
Chuck, this is Seth. I'll start, and then I'll kick it over to Kurt for your second question. For holiday, I would just say, going back to post the April announcement of the tariffs, the team did a really great job analyzing all the programs that were set aside for the back half, looking at where we thought there could be elasticities where tariffs could come in and went right away to kind of adjusting potential buys and things of that nature.
I would tell you that like there's not a significant meaningful amount of updates and shifts that occurred other than maybe going from direct to importing some products, defining domestic supply and demand, looking for products that had other countries and origins of supply. And I would just say that the team did a really nice job pivoting to those other countries of origins as well as taking advantage of opportunistic buys so that we can make sure that we have a really compelling offering as it comes, and we look ahead to holiday. So we're really confident when we look ahead and be able to manage not only tariffs, but also being able to offer that kind of assortment that our customers expect for us around this time of the year. I'll kick it over to Kurt and let him go to the second question.
Yes, Chuck, the -- going back to my comments about the over -- moving beyond the peak investment cycle gives us the ability at lower comp rates more historical tractor supply norms to be able to have some level of inflection in operating margin. When we gave our long-term guidance, we said we generally look in this guidance range to be able to grow our operating margin 5, 10, 15 basis points annually. And as we were able to achieve comp sales above that inflection point, I believe that scenario is very much in play for 2026.
The next question is from the line of David Bellinger with Mizuho.
I want to ask you about the hunting supplies expansion. We've noticed rollout of [indiscernible] in the ammunition category as part of our checks. Can you help us size the revenue opportunity and the potential comp uplift there? How many stores can this reach? And any early reads from your core customer?
David, it's Seth. Thanks for the question. I would start with just saying that wildlife and recreation supplies have been a core kind of category growth strategy for us. If we go back even over the last 5 years, and we continue to be really, really pleased with the growth of the categories and those items as we're looking at those in the store. So when it goes directly to ammo, I would say amo for us was just kind of a natural extension to that kind of outdoor wildlife and recreation category. We are the market leader in safes. We are growing significantly and, call it, feed and attractants. And when you look at those categories, amo was kind of like that next iteration of C.U.E. when you think about that Wildlife category for us.
Today, I would tell you we're in roughly about half of the chain. We've ramped that recently where we started with a small pilot and we're pleased with the initial results. We also have it online. And I'd say for a little bit for the foreseeable future, it would be in about that kind of store count as we kind of go into 2026, and we continue to manage that out. So again, amo is kind of that natural extension to it. But I would just say more broadly, you're going to continue to see us go deeper and deeper into wildlife and outdoor recreation categories because not only has it been a key growth driver for us in the business for the last 5 years, but as we look ahead, and that's part of the things that you're seeing with us with the Field & Stream partnership that we're launching, we're having those new exclusives kind of coming out.
And for us, we're looking at that as like what's that kind of next category of growth similar to what we've seen over poultry kind of over the course of the last 5 years, 10 years, et cetera. So thanks for the question.
The next question is from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.
So a couple of follow-ups on the top line. You talked about 50 to 60 bps of spring seasonal demand, spring/summer shifting into the third quarter. We also talked about some fall headwinds. So was that 50 to 60 sort of a smaller tailwind as you think about how it played out in September?
And then as you think about the ticket component of comp, following up on an earlier question, into the -- Seth, you mentioned you're about halfway through rolling out pricing, but also into the fourth quarter, your mix goes more highly towards imported goods. So would you think that ticket could perhaps be up 2.5% in the fourth quarter or maybe a little bit more given the mix shifts?
Chris, it's Kurt. In regards to the ticket question, we anticipate that our ticket will have a similar, maybe slightly higher impact on the fourth quarter for some of the things that you mentioned. The ticket had minimal impact this quarter on mix in -- including big ticket. So ticket is benefiting from the stable commodity market with some slight increase in the input cost, including tariffs. That may moderate up a bit in the fourth quarter.
We've always said that in this quarter, there's volatility in regards to elasticity as well. So some of that includes for ticket, how much impact may be in the basket, et cetera. So we look at both transactions and ticket being a key contributor to the fourth quarter and maybe more outsized on ticket in the fourth quarter than it was in the third quarter, and transactions will move in regards to demand for the business. And particularly, as Hal mentioned earlier, the demand related to cold winter weather impact. So look at it that way in regards to the benefit. And then Remind me the first part of your question, Chris?
Was, yes, Kurt. The was whether do you think that 60 basis point lift from the shift from 2Q to 3Q on the seasonal business, would you think it was less of a tailwind considering what happened in September? Or is that sort of your view of the net impact of weather in the third quarter?
Yes. Let me -- I'll just step back on the third quarter in general. And we often say is the quarter favorable or unfavorable weather related. And third quarter overall was favorable from a weather perspective. And there's been some puts and takes in there. But if it's relatively point of comp benefit from a good solid weather condition in the third quarter, that's a pretty good range to look at it. Within there, Hal mentioned that areas on a delayed start to the second quarter and then the bathtub effect, some of that is what fell into July that may often be part of the second quarter. But overall, particularly July and August were set up as a favorable solid third quarter. And then on the tail end of it, you had a headwind on there. But we do overall look at the third quarter as a solid, good, favorable weather condition type quarter.
The next question is from the line of Robert Ohmes with Bank of America.
Just 2 quick questions. Maybe Hal, can we get an update on Retail Media for Tractor Supply? And then another question for the team would just be, I think you guys are on the the release you put out mentioned softness in select discretionary categories. A little color on that. Was it apparel? It sounds like it wasn't big ticket overall, but would love to get any color on that.
Robert, thanks so much for the question today. I'll take the second one, and then I'll toss it to Rob to share some details on direct sales -- I'm sorry, on retail media. As it relates to the softness in discretionary really not much difference than what we saw in Q3 than what we saw in Q1 and Q2. The seasonal big ticket certainly continues to resonate with customers. When there's a need, they're purchasing. We saw that in July and August with riding lawn mowers as we called out. But on the flip side is if there's not a big driver of demand right now. We still see customers being a little bit cautious in their purchase as a big ticket. And for us, those are things like, say, dog kennels and crates, could be it's things like -- that we've called out also like trailers and gun safes, some of those every day, bigger ticket businesses that we sell. There's just a little bit of kind of cautious from the consumer on that. It's been that way all year. And I think what we were trying to call out in Q3 is that the strength in riders offset the weakness there, also the weakness we mentioned in the last couple of weeks of emerging response. As you can imagine, we sold a lot of generators in weeks 38 and 39 of last year contributes to big ticket growth and contributes to average ticket growth and we didn't have those sales this year. But not -- I wouldn't call anything new out in big ticket in Q3 as it relates to even the trends we saw in the first half.
All right. And Robert, this is Rob. I hope well. So first, from a retail media perspective, we're continuing to make really strong progress. We entered this year with Retail Media with 2 primary objectives; one, to expand our partnerships and ultimately drive revenue. And we're on track for this year to deliver a triple retail media revenue growth year-over-year. So we're very pleased about that. We're doing that by expanding the partnership count over 80%. Our average partner revenue is up by nearly 50%, and we're introducing new products and capabilities to our partners, such as branded pages, off-site products and expanding our in-store display retail media offerings.
We're really early still into retail media. I would call it, kind of say the first inning, but we're really pleased with the progress the team has made. We have extreme focus. We have strong value proposition back to our partners, really focusing on the footsteps in the rural market area. And in '26, where we're going to double down expanding our vision to more of the self-service capabilities, the model related to more product placement, related to ads as well as products in general. So with these expansion, the momentum that we're seeing in our partnership as well as just continuing to put the focus on our value proposition, we feel we're well positioned going into '26. We're very pleased. The team has done a great job.
The next question is from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird.
I guess I'll ask on on AI, just maybe an update on what you guys are doing in that area, and what your kind of outlook is for how you're going to layer it into factor supply?
Yes. Peter, thanks so much for the question on AI. We've got a lot of exciting things going on, on that front. And I'm going to break it into 3 buckets: enterprise-level software, the second is custom-built that we call off-the-shelf enterprise software. Second, I'd call custom-built enterprise software. And then the third I would talk about is around agents and automation. First off, on the enterprise kind of purchased software. All of our vendors that we work closely with are now rolling in AI modules, AI analysis, AI capabilities, whether that's in ERP systems, whether that's in replenishment systems, marketing, et cetera. So we are fast adopters there where appropriate, obviously, with clarity of understanding of functionality and security.
The second one, in terms of custom built, we talked about that several times in the past. Those software systems applications that we built out, we continue to scale, we continue to refine and they continue to -- and they've become more and more key parts of just how we operate every single day. So whether that's Heigura, which is increasing in its use, whether that's Tractor Vision, in terms of our customers calling out when customers need help in areas that our team members might not have visibility to them or whether that's in CorSo, which drives day-to-day operational tasks. So those are just 3 examples of custom-built applications that are scaled out now and continue to ramp in their impact in use by our team members.
On the third 1 around kind of automation and agent build-out. Over the last 6 months, we've done an enterprise integration with OpenAI. We now have over 1,200, I think 1,500 users that now have OpenAI enterprise accounts that's integrated with our Snowflake Data Lake. And what that allows us to do now is to start really across the organization, building agents to automate and make things simpler and faster. An example of that would be in, say, our Fast team, where in the past, when a Fast team member would finish a planogram reset, they would take a picture, they would send it to their District Manager -- District Fast Supervisor, they would review it and provide manual feedback. We've now built up the capability where that picture is taken, AI assesses the picture and gives immediate feedback to the team member and our District Fast Supervisor only has to get involved with escalations. And so it just makes everybody's job more efficient and allows us to execute faster. And kudos to the team across really all dimensions of our organization for embracing it and driving that productivity enhancements that it can provide.
Listen, we'll just got time for maybe just 1 more quick question. So let's see if we can slip 1 more in.
Our final question will come from the line of Spencer Hanus with Wolf Research.
I just wanted to ask on store growth, stepping up for next year. Where do you see most of that growth center? Is it new or infill markets? And then how are you thinking about the cannibalization from that growth and then the returns on those stores as well?
Yes. Thanks for the question. Appreciate it. So on new store growth, first, I'd just say, as we look backwards, the last 18, 24 months, there were some questions around our new store productivity being lower, and we talked about there was a lot of noise in there. And as we said then, ex the noise we've been running pretty consistent and we continue to be pretty consistent. The new store productivity numbers of late are continuing to show that our new store productivity is running strong and consistent. Our new stores are performing above pro forma. Our site selection and model is the best we've ever had in our pipeline is strong. And the real estate construction team are doing an excellent job continuing to build out these stores in the right locations. We know that cannibalization, we can build out markets. We can grow the overall market, and we're seeing cannibalization numbers come in even lower than what we predict them to be. So we know that the growth is out there. We see growth across the entire United States, but a lot of our growth will continue to be in the West as we're opening a new DC out there, and Idaho will continue to grow stores up there as well.
Well, I know we've hit the top of the hour, so that will wrap our call. I'm around and any time anybody needs anything at all. So thank you all for joining our call today.
Thank you. This will conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
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Tractor Supply — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Tractor Supply — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $3,72 Mrd. (+7,2% YoY, Q3‑Rekord)
- Comparable Sales: +3,9% (Transaktionen +2,7%, Durchschnittsbon +1,2%)
- Bruttomarge: 37,4% (+15 Bp YoY)
- EPS: $0,49 (vs. $0,45 YoY)
- SG&A: $1,05 Mrd. (+8,4%), 28,1% vom Umsatz; Neighbor's Club >80% des Umsatzes
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Direct Sales: Initiative skaliert schnell – rund 312 Stores abgedeckt, 48 Spezialisten, ~ $200k/Woche Umsatz aus dem Kanal; Management erwartet, dass der Rollout sich 2026 selbst trägt.
- Customer Loyalty: Starke Kundenmetriken (17 Quartale verbesserte Zufriedenheit), Neighbor's Club steigert Retention und Spend pro Mitglied.
- Store & Capex: 29 Neueröffnungen im Q3 (YTD 68), 55% der Flotte in Project Fusion; Pipeline für 2026 robust.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Q4‑Leitlinie: comps 1%–5% (Wetterabhängig), Management nennt Wintersturm als wesentlichen Treiber.
- FY2025: Net Sales +4,6%–5,6%, Comparable Sales +1,4%–2,4%, Operative Marge 9,5%–9,7%, EPS $2,06–$2,13 (Bereich wurde eingeengt).
- 2026‑Ausblick: Keine formale Guidance, geplant: ~100 Neueröffnungen, erwartete Normalisierung der Investitionen und Margenverbesserung.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Direct Sales Ramp: Analysten fragten nach Rep‑Zahlen, Flächenabdeckung und ob Anfangskosten durch Umsatz ausgeglichen werden; Management nennt Selbstfinanzierung ab 2026.
- Wetter‑Risiko: Q4‑Bandbreite erklärt durch Wettervariabilität (Wintersturm als Katalysator); kurze Erläuterung historischer Schwankungen.
- Tarife & Preis: Fragen zu Tarifdurchschlägen und Preisnahme; Company sagt, man sei «halbwegs» durch initiale Tarifwirkung und setzt gezielte Preisanpassungen ein, Fokus auf Wertwahrnehmung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Solide Q3 mit Umsatz‑ und Transaktionswachstum, gezielten Investitionen (Direct Sales, Final Mile, Project Fusion) und engerer FY‑Guidance. Hauptrisiken bleiben Wettervolatilität und Tarifdurchschläge; langfristig verbessern sich Skaleneffekte und neue Kanäle die Margenperspektive.
Tractor Supply — Piper Sandler 4th Annual Growth Frontiers Conference
1. Question Answer
Great. Good morning. Thank you, everyone. So my name is Peter Keith, senior research analyst at Piper Sandler covering broadlines and hardlines. I'm very happy to have Tractor Supply with us today, who is Nashville-based. And so just for a quick introduction who's on stage with me, we have Seth Estep, Chief Merchandising Officer; Kurt Barton, CFO; and then we have the famous Mary Winn Pilkington in the back; and Rena Clayton Rolfe, also sitting next to her, Manager of Investor Relations. So welcome, everyone. Thanks for coming.
Thanks for having us.
Yes. Thank you, Peter.
All right. So let's kick off. I think one thing that's great about Tractor Supply is you guys have this very big niche kind of rural customer base, hobby farmer customer. So it's a big segment, but it's also unique in the landscape of retail. So maybe, Kurt, if you could just talk about how you feel about your consumer health right now. What are you seeing with spending trends and overall maybe home balance sheet health?
Yes, we have seen the customer behave very consistent throughout 2025. And I would describe our customer as stable, healthy, continuing to engage in the needs-based business and the rural lifestyle. I'll give you a couple of examples of consumer behavior in what we see and the demand for our business. We've had consistently -- even prior to 2025, we just continue to see throughout this year consistency in the number of transactions. And we often look at the volume of transactions and the consumable business being the biggest indicator of the health of our business, the health of our customer, their engagement in the lifestyle.
And as you saw in both Q1, Q2, we even indicated the strength of how Q3 was starting out that the transactions have been consistent. The consumable business is strong and been really a driver of our business. So best that we see our customer today on the -- on what we see for the demand, we'd say continue to be very healthy and stable. The broad consumer sentiment data but even some of the individual consumer sentiment information we get as we routinely pulse our customers just shows an increased view on their sentiment and their view of their personal finances continue to be stronger as the year has progressed.
Okay. That's great. And so there is some emerging optimism around housing. You guys are in a direct housing play. But how do you think about maybe the impact of housing on your business the last couple of years as we've been in a relatively soft market?
Yes. Peter, as you said it, Tractor Supply is not as direct of a recipient of demand based on housing market either strength or softness. But no doubt, as customers engage, move into and shift out of some markets into the rural communities, we're a benefactor of that. And just as a point of reference, while there was a significant growth in rural migration and the movement out of urban and suburban into ex-urban and rural markets where a vast majority of our stores are that growth in 2020 through 2022 was unprecedented.
But still in the last 3 years, we've continued to see net migration into our markets. And so we would like to be able to -- we look forward to and like to see the housing market show signs of growth. I think we're starting to see some of that. There's some momentum, the belief that we've seen the trough and the lowest part of that in 2024 and early 2025, I think, is well supported. So there's a bit of a halo effect and an indirect benefit to Tractor Supply from fencing and lawn and garden. And as big barns or big farms, should I say, may get purchased and larger subdivisions move in, there's certainly a customer that we benefit from.
So there's a benefit to our business as interest rates lower and housing market begins to grow again, but not an area where it's a key driver for our business.
Fair enough, yes. We were just looking at some data through mid-2024 and it's on that rural migration, and it still remains nicely intact. So it seems like something that could accelerate as housing starts to pick up.
Certainly, it's an area where housing is cheaper, and mobility allows the consumer to be able to move a little bit further out. And as the millennials and other cohorts begin to have that first home buy, there's a stronger percentage moving into where the cost of living is a little bit lower, and that's right in that ex urban and rural markets where we serve.
Yes, 100%. Everyone wants to get the big house, the yard, get a dog and some chicken, right? So let's pivot next question to Seth. So as you guys may have heard there are some tariffs to talk about. So maybe just talk about the process so far how your team has been managing through tariffs, how those price increases are starting to roll in and any consumer reaction thus far?
Yes. So what we indicated earlier in the last call as well and have been consistent throughout the year is that the first half this year was kind of minimal impacts from tariffs, with a little bit of a modest pickup as we went into Q3 and then more of the impact from a P&L perspective would flow into Q4 and then 2026. Our team, I would say, right away, we stood up to what we call the tariff task force, really looking at the implications, how we need to look to navigate the sourcing, resourcing requirements, making sure that we have product on shelf that we can have programs intact and also make sure that we could be that value dependable supplier that we're known to be.
As we're going through Q3, Q4, we're starting to see costs start to flow through some.
Kurt's mentioned a few times our C.U.E. business, our consumable, usable and edible, it's 40%, 45% of our sales. It's obviously minimally impacted. We're leveraging that to drive footsteps, making sure we're getting customers in there. But where we're starting to see some costs flow through more in those import type items, we're starting to see some of that cost start to pass through on select items as we navigate.
We've got a ton of tools in place from competitive price intelligence, et cetera that we're able to monitor those type of things and make sure that we're priced accordingly. But we've seen minimal consumer reaction at this point to anything that we've taken price on. So I just commend the team on to be able to navigate at this time and we feel confident that we'll have the ability to navigate and deliver the sell side as well as deliver the margin that we're looking to deliver at the same time.
Okay. Yes, that's interesting. I guess maybe to summarize, too, it's not the everyday items that are going up, it's infrequent purchases that maybe consumer doesn't know exactly what it should cost.
Correct, correct. I mean part of our merchandising philosophy is kind of that surprise and delight. As you walk in our store, we call it our drive aisle or center courts. Those are the types of things that are more impacted from the direct import side of the business. And so a lot of those are like onetime buys and things of that nature where you're establishing that retail. And you also have the ability to resource if need be to make sure you're delivering what the consumer is looking for.
Okay. Yes, great. Well, let me just follow up on that because surprise and delight is that we've heard that phrase for 20 years. I think it's a great way to describe Tractor Supply. Maybe, Seth, if you could hit on even just some of the merchandise initiatives that you and your team are working on, even like new product trends, new things you're bringing into the store that are providing that great customer experience.
Absolutely. So surprise and delight is something that's key to us, but there's really kind of like 3 core merchandising tenets that we always talk about. One is dependable supply, the other one is newness and innovation and the third is differentiation and exclusivity. And I'd kind of hit on all 3 of those with new programs and brands. Our C.U.E. business, again, we continue to talk about that, livestock feed, pet food, et cetera. The team has done really robust reset activity this year across those and introduced a lot of new items.
And one of the things that we're continuing to see a lot of uptick on is like in our private label product there as well. So 4health is a very large national premium private label that we offer. We get some sub-brands on that with our UNTAMED and our Shreds that really consumers have really gravitated to. If we think about other core categories that are core to the lifestyle, welding's one of those. We are a leader in welding. We just launched Lincoln Electric, which is the #1 brand in welding and that is -- consumers have really gravitated to that, surpassing some of the expectations. And then you think about differentiation and as well as exclusivity. One of the things that we're very excited about earlier this year we announced a partnership we're launching with Field & Stream.
We just launched our first handful of select products. Consumer reception has been very strong. And as we look to the back half, we're going to have some fairly large programs starting to launch under the Field & Stream brand, mostly in late November, December with another full lineup coming out of spring next year, which really goes to some of the category trends that we're seeing in like [ wildlife ], recreation. Everything we do is always centered around the lifestyle.
And so from the merchant team's perspective, they're always just looking at what are the trends where consumers going and what are the right brands that we can kind of anchor on to make sure we're delivering the products they're looking for.
Okay. Well, in the last year, you had the 3-foot tall skeleton chicken for Halloween. If you could top that, it's probably setting up for a pretty good.
We've got a great Halloween selection. So if you go to one of our stores, you'll see some very unique items in there for sure. This year, it's a big skeleton, a buck like a dear. So it's -- consumers are loving it.
Outstanding. All right. Okay. So I go back to Kurt and this is more of a short-term question. You guys have already kind of set up the answer. But it's just on the second half comp outlook. And so I know that's a question point for investors where the full year range is 0 to 4%. First half of the year, I think on average, you were up about 0.5% or so. So it implies some stronger trends in the back half. Maybe just flesh out where that confidence comes from on this pickup on the comp growth.
Yes. We said in our most recent guidance that we see a range of possibilities of -- for the year, a comp in the 0% to 4% for the year. It's -- first, I'd say there's a wideness certainly to recognize the impact on tariffs. It could be from ticket to the impact on the downside of the consumers' response. But we also indicated we feel really strong about our ability to navigate and center around the middle of that comp range.
But that, to your point, implies an uptick in the comp sales in the back half of this year. We also saw as we entered into this year and described it as a transitional year, the 2 real headwinds on our comp sales over the last 18 months have really been the shift of -- on PCE from goods to services. And as that balances back out as the consumer is shifting their priorities of spend more back to a historical norm on PCE. And in our case, that's mostly how -- that's where it impacts some of the discretionary parts of our business.
As that normalizes out, that allows us to be able to be more in line with our long-term algo and then really the level of deflation shifting from inflation where we've been seeing some of the significant pressure on the consumable side of the business on deflation. We're seeing both of those shift away from the pressure points to more neutral to even signs of positive. As an example, even in Q2, we exited Q2 on more of an inflationary benefit on the consumable side rather than deflationary. So what you see in the second half of the year is less pressure and in some cases even some benefit from those 2.
But really the comparables on the back half of the year what we're going up against are a little bit better. There was -- we're cycling in Q3 significant heat and drought last year, so it was not ideal for the third quarter for demand of -- from the consumer who lives and works outside of the land. And then there was minimal hurricane or emergency response demand last year. There was a soft mild winter and in our business, we are in the business of helping customers in cold weather.
And so the comparables are better in the second half than the first half. So we anticipate still consistent growth in transactions where ticket was a bit of a pressure in the first half. In the second half of the year, we're expecting a balance of both growth in transactions and ticket.
Okay. Sounds good. Yes, it does seem -- the weather data we look at, it looks like September has been a little bit cooler for a good chunk of the country so far. Okay. So to either one of you, I did want to ask about the competitive backdrop. What's kind of great about the business, you don't have natural brand name competitors, certainly nothing national scale, maybe some regionals. But how do you feel about that competitive landscape today? Is it intensifying? There's been some concern that a few big box home improvement players might be getting into your space. Anything that's on your radar right now?
I'd start by saying both Seth and I have been with the company and seen over 20 years each in our business and the rural market and supporting Life Out Here. And we've been through times where our peers and competitors will engage in parts of the Life Out Here product assortment, et cetera, whether that's equine, pet, poultry, et cetera and so forth. We keep our eye and our pulse on all the activity of our peers.
Our focus certainly is about the #1 thing that we offer is a full great assortment to serve the entire hobby and the entire Out Here lifestyle. That means what you need for your land, your animals, your pets, your equipment, we are a convenient but small and easy shop that offers our customers everything. And that's the most important thing is having what they need for all of the aspects of their lifestyle as well as great customer service.
And we've seen -- like I said, we've seen a number of times where other retailers might dip their toe in or dabble into some of the areas. And the best thing that we do is play offense and continue to just have the most reliable and dependable inventory, the best assortment, great customer service. And as I indicated, we're having record years in the number of engaged Neighbor's Club members and retention, transactions strong.
As I indicated, comp sales continuing to show signs of continued growth in there. So for us, we're mindful and keeping an eye on the competitor, but the most important thing for us right now and what's really been the differentiator in the years past in these situations is our ability to be able to meet the customers' needs and be best at serving this rural lifestyle.
Yes. Okay. Great. So next question to Seth, a little bit on Neighbor's Club and a little bit on the chicken. It's one of my favorite topics. But I think it's such a fascinating theme for you guys is this backyard chicken demand. The latest stat I think was chickens are now the third most popular companion animal pet effectively, right?
So we've had some great chicken, backyard chicken strength in the first half of the year. We had it 2 years ago. What does the purchase cycle look like for a chicken owner? Someone who's getting into the hobby. Does that -- is it a big boom and then fades or do you think it kind of holds steady for a while?
No. It's one of our favorite categories to your point. It's like an exciting category for us that we continue to be incredibly focused on. A couple of quick stats on that and then specifically answer the final question there is around 1 in 5 of our shoppers actually own backyard flock. So about 20% of our customers are engaged in the category. We continue to have record years. One of the things that excites us about where the momentum is going in backyard flock is obviously we had the eggflation earlier in the year that got a lot of people thinking about it. .
But even when egg prices came down, we have not seen a slowdown in the hobby and new entrants into the hobby. So this year, we're continuing that kind of record path. We're also seeing about half of the individuals that are buying backyard flock and chickens in our store are continuing the hobby and adding to their flock, and there's kind of a natural replacement cycle that goes along with it.
And then the other half are new that we're seeing into the hobby as well, which is always great because when you see about that kind of half and half split, you're getting that repeat purchase, you're getting people coming in and buying their livestock feed, they're buying everything else that can go with it.
While at the same time when people are new to the hobby, we love it because they need a coop, they need water, they need everything that goes to -- go with it. And in many cases, it's like a family activity, they're creating this experience. And it's just such a natural category that goes along with gardening, everything that we kind of support in that kind of backyard hobby.
So for us, when you do those things, it's just like the full basket of those entrants. And then you have the others that are continuing on -- that kind of build their flock. We'll see our average customer actually continue to add, I mean, up to 10, 12 birds in their flock and many of them have names at that point. And to your point, they become their companion animal and our merchants continue to kind of push the envelope on how do you kind of think about premium products to the table like companion animal whether it be with backyard poultry treats or even things like believe it or not like toys, like instead of dog toys like things for chickens, and it is absolutely resonating with the customers. So it's a great category, one that we're -- we definitely plan to continue to own.
I think chickens eat a surprising amount of food, right. They got to eat a lot of protein to make those eggs.
Exactly.
So what is a chicken customer you see in Neighbor's Club? Are they coming in at least once a month?
Most do. And it's -- because you think if they're owning anywhere between 6 and 12 birds, an average bird will eat around 80 to 100 pounds of [indiscernible] livestock feed per year. And you think about that kind of replacement -- that going in to buy their feed is kind of like that kind of grocery footsteps for us. So it's one of those things that drives repeat purchases like month over month over month and year over year as they're kind of replacing the flock as well.
Peter, a couple of things I'd add to that. Our Neighbor's Club data tells us 80% of our Neighbor's Club members own at least 1 pet. That's 4 in 5, 1 in 5 own chickens and. So the overlap in combination of dog, cat, poultry has got a high level of overlap there. And so for those reasons, the typical pet owner is coming in at least once or twice a month for their needs. And we're seeing that chicken customer, the -- we're seeing a high level of percentage moving into other categories.
And we even have like exclusive brands like the Molly Yeh apparel and very prominent in -- on social media with chicken owners, et cetera. So we're able to continue to work through social media on our Neighbor's Club to be able to take that new customer and expand them across the store.
Yes. It does so. I think it's such a fascinating theme for you guys. It's a -- chickens live 5 years, people have to feed them, and they come into store, they start buying more products. So it's a great trend.
Just in interest of time, we've got a couple of minutes. You've got some really nice longer-term initiatives in play with Allivet, Final Mile, the merchandise localization. It seems like Final Mile was one that got some attention on the last earnings call. Maybe just update us on that initiative, how it's going? And any metrics you could provide that's getting you excited?
Yes. Why don't -- I'll take that, Peter. First, I'd say there's Final Mile and then we also have our direct sales big barn customer and those often get talked consistently with each other, and they should because our Final Mile is the enabler for a number of sales opportunities and sales vectors that we've got between digital and the buy online, deliver from store but also the big barn direct sales in the large, palletized bulk goods. But our Final Mile is moving along really well.
It started with for a few years 300 stores where we began to really test this where we have a hub of a driver and a truck trailer being able to serve 4 to 5 stores in that area and be able to take our own team member with high quality that knows our business and can build a relationship and be able to serve big bulk delivery or that Final Mile on a digital sale. That's moving along well. We've moved into markets like Florida, Texas, California.
We've got at this point I think 50, 60 hub stores. So you think about that plus the 4 to 5 stores they're serving in place. We'll continue to roll that out later this year and then get on a real routine of growing that on a year-to-year basis. The direct sales is a field sales team that is driving business with ag centers, big barns that larger customer that we weren't able to service well on their big needs because they need palletized large bulk items being delivered and that group basically is a fast follower to our Final mile by, call it, 30 days after the Final Mile is in place.
Our field team who has been trained and been given the tools with lead, like sales lead systems, et cetera, we use our Neighbor's Club and other purchase data to identify these customers. All of that is moving along just as we planned for this year. So we're excited about direct sales because it is a $1 billion business that we anticipate to be a 5-year growth plan, but one of the most exciting strategic initiatives and Final Mile is an enabler for it and also a way for us to be able to be even more efficient and more competitive in those Final Mile deliveries in rural America, which is one of the toughest ones to break into. And we've got nearly 2,400 locations today. So we are the closest to our customers and believe we can have the most efficient and the fastest delivery with our Final Mile team as we roll that out.
And you're building on a sales team then on the direct side to pull in some of those incremental new big customers.
Exactly. You think about a horse stable that may have 24 horses and oftentimes that may be 24 different owners that need their product delivered for the most expensive animal to own. And so those are customers that get deliveries versus come into the store. So it's unlocking one of the last final areas for us to be able to reach into in a greater -- it grew our TAM, and it gives us a greater opportunity to reach additional customers.
Okay. That's exciting. So we look forward to tracking that longer term. So we're going to wrap it up there. But Kurt, Seth, thank you very much for spending some time with us. And good luck with the rest of the year and keep up the good work.
Thank you, Peter.
Thank You.
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Tractor Supply — Piper Sandler 4th Annual Growth Frontiers Conference
Tractor Supply — Piper Sandler 4th Annual Growth Frontiers Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Takeaway: Management beschreibt eine stabile, loyale Rural‑Kundschaft mit konstanten Transaktionsraten und starkem Consumable‑Geschäft (C.U.E. = consumable, usable, edible ~40–45% des Umsatzes). Zölle belasten selektive Importwaren, praktikable Preisanpassungen wurden begonnen. Final‑Mile‑Rollout und Neighbor's Club treiben Wiederkäufe.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Kundenhealth: Transaktionen stabil, Consumable‑Geschäft als Umsatztreiber; Pulsbefragungen zeigen bessere Konsumentensentiments im Jahresverlauf.
- Merchandising: Fokus auf Exklusivität/Private‑Label (4health, UNTAMED), neue Partnerschaft Field & Stream und Markenstarts wie Lincoln Electric zur Sortimentdifferenzierung.
- Logistik & TAM: Final Mile: Ausbau von Pilot zu ~50–60 Hubs (servieren je 4–5 Stores), Rollout in FL/TX/CA; Direct Sales (Big Barn) als $1 Mrd. Umsatzchance über 5 Jahre.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Management konkretisiert Zeitpunkt der Zolleffekte (moderater Impact in Q3, stärkerer P&L‑Durchfluss in Q4 und 2026) und nennt operativ sichtbare Final‑Mile‑Metriken (aus Pilotphasen ≈300 Stores getestet; aktuell ~50–60 Hubs im Ausbau). Guidanceband bleibt 0–4% Comp‑Range.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Tarife: Tiefgefragt zu Preisdurchgabe; Management nennt Task‑Force und selektive Preiserhöhungen, verweigerte aber konkrete Sensitivität auf Guidance‑Ebenen.
- Housing & Nachfrage: Nachfrage‑Halo durch ländliche Migration; Management sieht Rückkehr zu langfristigen PCE‑Normen und bessere Vergleichsbasen H2.
- Final Mile / Neighbor's Club: Analysten wollten KPIs; Management lieferte Hub‑Anzahl und Einsatzmärkte, nannte aber keine detaillierten Kosten/ROI‑Zahlen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Call signalisiert Stabilität im Kerngeschäft und glaubwürdige strategische Hebel (Merchandising, Final Mile, Direct Sales). Kurzfristige Risiken bleiben Zölle und Ticket‑Volatilität; langfristig klarer Wachstumshebel durch Logistik‑Rollout und Loyalty‑Monetarisierung. Anleger sollten Tarifeinfluss, Back‑half‑Komps und Final‑Mile‑KPIs eng verfolgen.
Tractor Supply — Goldman Sachs 32nd Annual Global Retailing Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Okay. Good morning. Thank you for joining us. It's our pleasure to introduce Tractor Supply Company. Today, we have with us Hal Lawton, President and Chief Executive Officer of Tractor Supply. Hal has served as President and CEO since January 2020. We have with us too, Kurt Barton, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Tractor Supply. Kurt has been in the role since February 2019. And we'll start there, and thanks for joining us, both of you, today. Thank you.
Yes, thanks for having us, Kate.
I think if we can just start maybe talking about the health of the consumer, you guys see a really broad swath of the consumer. And so we'd love to hear your view on what you're seeing and hearing and what you expect for the second half this year.
Yes. From our view, the consumer is healthy and resilient, remarkably resilient. You think about the challenges the consumer has been through over the last 5, 6 years, and they've just been remarkably resilient through it. They've evolved, iterated, adjusted based on the conditions, but GDP continues to be strong. Consumer spending continues to be strong. And that's what we see in our business.
We saw a nice sequential improvement through the second quarter, last quarter. Talked about how the third quarter was off to a good start. We had positive comp transactions in the first half, positive comp transactions in both quarters, strong new customer growth, total customer growth. They're engaging in our C.U.E. business. We had very good big ticket purchases as well, better than expected in the second quarter. So just the consumer remains strong and very resilient.
Great. Could you maybe differentiate a little bit in terms of the categories in which you're seeing us right? You talked a little bit about big ticket, which has been a nice headline for you guys in the C.U.E. categories. The discretionary areas for everyone has been maybe a little bit more muted. And so we wonder if you could talk through each category, how you see, again, that possibly strengthening what the consumer preference is there?
Yes. For us, I think it's very situational based on consumer need and in the moment. So for instance, -- if I break our bucket -- our categories just generically into 3 buckets for the sake of this discussion, we always talk about our C.U.E. business, consumable, usable and edible businesses. So those are things like dog food, horse feed, poultry feed, but also categories like fertilizer and grass seed, lubricants for tractors. So it's really things that our consumers consume, use or eat, right?
And -- but they're needs-based demand-driven. Those businesses continue to be very strong for us, nice mid-single-digit comps. They're the transaction drivers in our stores. We aren't seeing trade down at all in those categories. We're seeing just normal everyday behavior in those categories, and we continue to gain share in those categories. The second I'd say is kind of the kind of seasonally related bigger ticket businesses or just seasonally related businesses.
And for us, it's as goes the weather many times, those businesses go. So it was kind of a cooler-ish and wetter April and May, then summer came in June and July, and we saw our business pick up. And it was not only did we see things like just your normal lawn and garden businesses performing well, but we also saw big ticket like riding lawn mowers performing well. And those were very strong for us. And we think we gained some significant share in the space, but also just our consumers had a demand and a need for that. And yards were growing fast.
People are having to mow their yards a couple of times a week through the end of May, June and July, and it was kind of an extended season, and we saw strength in big ticket there. And then the third category would be just more your core discretionary, not as much seasonally related, let's say, something like a gun safe or -- another category would be like recreational vehicles, a little seasonality. Those 2 categories were really big for us last year.
So we are lapping on top of some growth from last year, but they were a little more muted. But I think that's one of the attractive things about Tractor Supply is our portfolio of categories. And if you look over the last 6 years with the comps that we've had, it's always been the case that our C.U.E. has been really stable, and then we kind of have other dynamics going on, the other 40%, 50%, 60% of the portfolio, but we're able to kind of navigate it because of that.
So maybe while we're talking about the health of the consumer, I think, we have to talk about tariffs and just what kind of impact that might have. And on the last earnings call, you mentioned seeing tariff impacts in the second half and beyond. I think that has to do with how fast you turn and, again, the categories that you're selling. Have you taken any pricing so far in the categories? And what elasticity response have you seen?
Yes. First, I'll say on tariffs. First of all, I'd say there was some unreasonable expectations or maybe not quite grounded in kind of how balance sheets and inventory turns and the fact there were some thoughts that like tariffs might start coming through in both cost and in pricing in the first half of this year, even the beginning of the -- in towards the first half. But the facts are this is the way that all comes through on the balance sheet.
A lot of -- every retailer has a different way they do accounting, retail accounting, cost accounting, et cetera. We're cost accounting, but those all have different ways of things flowing in. Also, all of us obviously worked with our vendors to try to navigate different dates. So I think you're starting to see as you head into the second half of this year, more kind of tariff costs flowing through people's P&Ls, and you'll start to see more pricing action associated with that where appropriate.
For us, we talked about the portfolio a couple of times today already. We do take a portfolio strategy. We're committed to kind of our overall operating margin rates, but the profitability by SKU may vary depending on how the market conditions and also whatever costing is happening there and whatever retails we think are doable. We have taken a little bit of price, but very much kind of in the context of the market as well. I think you'll see a little bit more through the balance of the year.
I think it will -- if you do the math, you're talking modest percentage points or 2 of price increases across the market, nothing in the high to mid-single digits or anything like that in the market. And I think you'll see that play out into the first half of '26 as well as a lot of these costs are really coming through, as you said, in the second half of this year and will continue into next year as long as -- as well as the pricing associated with that.
On elasticities, we haven't really seen much elasticity in the market right now. Again, we haven't had what I'd call very material price increases, maybe things somewhere in the -- on a handful of SKUs, somewhere in the 5% to 10% range, some others in the low single-digit range. And we haven't seen elasticity impact on those price moves at all really.
So then that kind of leads us to just given your size and scale and just strong merchandising prowess, how do you see the tariff landscape playing out competitively? Meaning are you monitoring price gaps? Are you taking a look or taking advantage maybe of any opportunity there to take market share, like you mentioned before?
Yes. I think we're running the business the way we always do, just in the context of some incremental costs coming through. We have a very sophisticated cost management system, margin management system, pricing intelligence system and price scraping system. We also have monitoring of elasticity by SKU as well based on pricing actions we take. So very sophisticated.
And I think this is -- as you deal with tariffs and you have these kind of large amounts of uncertainty coming through, I think this is where scale will matter and sophistication will matter. And retailers who have more of that we'll be able to better navigate their P&L, better navigate their inventory and also, to your point, Kate, take advantage of the market conditions where you might see someone -- you might see some pricing opportunity to take share in the market as well.
And that's certainly how we always think about it on our key categories is making sure we're the market leader on pricing and setting ourselves up to take share.
If we could maybe just switch to margins and maybe more of like a shorter-term conversation. You reported your quarterly results a little bit earlier than a lot of other retail, just based on your December year-end calendar. But your expectation for gross margin expansion in the second half is maybe a little bit lower than the first half. Could you maybe walk through some of those drivers? And what do you think is maybe the most sustainable gross margin range for Tractor Supply longer term?
Yes, Kate, I'll start with a backdrop. The first half of the year, much in line with our expectations, we expanded gross margin by roughly 30 basis points. That was in a bit of a headwind more than we expected on strong consumable product sales, as Hal mentioned. So those items tend to have a little -- bit more of a mix pressure on us, but still a really strong 30 basis point improvement in gross margin expansion.
We said even in the beginning when we came into this year that we expected gross margin to be -- to grow, but not at the same level in the second half of the year. It's principally 3 things, and those 3 things generally apply much like we thought at the beginning of the year. None of them really that significant, but -- we began seeing incremental supply chain benefit last year in the third quarter when we opened up a new distribution center.
It's really one of the biggest unlocks. When we have a new distribution center, we can get reduced miles, better rates, new lanes, et cetera. We'll lap that in Q3. We also expected to see a bit more pressure on the C.U.E. consumable items that we're selling because we do see that as a key driver. And there's certainly the strength of the traffic of our business is coming in consumables, and that puts a bit of pressure.
And then recognizing on the topic of tariffs that we expect some pressure in the back half of the year. So the combination of those 3 things, none of them really that meaningful movement puts us still at gross margin expansion in our expectation, but below the 30 basis point improvement that we saw in the first half of the year. It's likely more to be in that 5, 10, 15 basis point improvement in the back half of the year.
Okay. I think -- and this is just my opinion, but you guys had a December Analyst Day where you focused on new investments and longer-term strategies. And I don't know, I do feel like maybe the tariff discussion has become front and center now, and you're not hearing as much about the longer-term strategy as maybe we would have heard back when you delivered it in December.
So I thought we could take this time to maybe go back and revisit it because you're doing a lot of things. The Allivet acquisition and integration, the Final Mile delivery, the direct sales and the localization. So I wondered if you could maybe just walk through each initiative for us and how you're prioritizing resource allocation for these initiatives.
Yes. Thanks for giving us an opportunity to talk about the Life Out Here strategy and our kind of second wave of it. In October of 2020, we introduced the first version of our Life Out Here strategy, and there was a number of initiatives that we launched at that time, including our Fusion remodel program, our Garden Center build-out, our revised Neighbor's Club program, but also some other programs like our FAST team.
As we are now in year 5 of those, each of those initiatives have a couple of years left of kind of tailwinds that they will be generating for us in the business. And as those start to subside, what we wanted to do is have a second set of initiatives, kind of the horizons for growth that would layer right on top of those and continue to drive Tractor Supply's growth out into the back half of this decade.
And so to your point, we launched a number of new initiatives beginning of this year, namely our -- we did an acquisition of Allivet, which was a pet and animal pharmacy company, and we've integrated that into the business and connected that into our Neighbor's Club program. That's one big strategy we have.
Over -- nearly 80% of our customers have dogs, over 50% of our customers have more than 1 dog. They have a tendency to be much heavier than the average dog in the country, so it fits very well also with our 41 million Neighbor's Club members. So we've got a lot of synergy to be able to put together on that acquisition and that initiative. The other one, to your point, is direct sales. This is very much kind of a B2B play for us. If you think about hardlines retail sectors, say, auto or home improvement, where there's been a kind of B2B angle they've been able to pursue, very similar for us.
There's a number of kind of larger farms, equine facilities, kennels, dog breeders, et cetera, that have large annual purchase needs that we can have a direct sales team go out and call on and grab that share and grab that incremental business. We think both of those first 2 opportunities are $1 billion in revenue opportunity for us in the future.
And then the third thing is our final mile initiative. And that's really basically rolling out the ability to get items delivered to an end consumer's home in a owned way through Tractor Supply vehicles. We're building that in a hub-and-spoke like way where every 3 or 4 stores, there will be a truck and a trailer that will be associated with that territory, and we'll be able to deliver not only the direct sales orders that I mentioned that will be in the range of $4,000 to, call it, $20,000, $30,000 in size, to even orders that are placed online as well as orders of big bulky things that are placed in our stores.
So we see that as a fundamental extension of our strategy and kind of next wave of logical customer service that we'll provide. And then the last one, as you mentioned, was localization. This is really the kind of wave 2 of our Fusion remodel program. For the first 4 or 5 years of that program, it was really one cookie cutter like approach across the country. Now that we've implemented a number of systems related to planograms and store clustering, we're able to overlay that and tailor about 15% of the square footage during a Fusion remodel program to be specific to the needs of that area.
So if it's more outdoor recreation, we'll lean in there. If it's more equine, we'll lean more there. If it say is more of a hardware store, we'll lean more in there from a category and space allocation perspective. So 4 big strategies that we're pursuing. The first 2 are more expense-based -- sorry, Allivet was an acquisition, but the next 2 were more expense-based. And then obviously, the last one, a little more capital-based. But big initiatives for us, again, all about layering on the initiatives that we launched in 2020 to create multiple horizons for growth for us really through the back half of the decade.
And then just my follow-up question to that. Obviously, Allivet was an acquisition, but how you view maybe inorganic versus organic when it comes to these 4 initiatives?
Yes, I'd start by saying our -- from a capital allocation perspective, our #1 focus is always investing in the core business. And we have a very proven flywheel, and we want to make sure we don't underinvest in that flywheel as we move forward. After investing in the business, we're very much committed to a dividend for our shareholders at about a 40% payout. And then after that, we have share buybacks. We typically buy somewhere in the 1% to 2% of shares outstanding a year. And then from an acquisition perspective, those are typically more opportunistic for us.
We've done a couple of acquisitions since I've been in the role over the last 5.5, 6 years, and we've had kind of about the same. Like once every 3 or 4 years, you might see us dip our toe into the water on acquisitions for a modest type acquisition to the extent it's aligned with our strategy. Another example of that was Orscheln Farm & Home, of course, when we acquired them a few years ago.
So maybe that's a good transition to your real estate strategy because you do plan to open 100 new stores. I think also you acquired some of the Big Lots locations, which I'm not quite sure we've seen you do before. So maybe, again, you can compartmentalize the -- just the organic growth versus real estate acquisition between Orscheln and then maybe the Big Lots stores, too.
Yes. I'll start by saying the hallmark of Tractor Supply is comp store growth plus new store growth. And that's been a hallmark of us for 30-plus years. This is a company that's had 1 year of negative comps in the last 30-plus years. That was in 2009, and it was a minus 1% comp. And this is a company that successfully built between 70 to 100 new stores a year for really the last 20, 30 years as well. So it's a hallmark for us. On the new store front, we are very sophisticated in how we approach new stores, both in terms of the real estate location, the financial modeling that goes around it, what we actually build in that location and then ramping our new stores up to their full maturity curve.
Our new stores in the last year, as an example, as we're ramping up to 100 new stores, back from about 70 or 80 during the COVID years. Our new stores are performing incredibly well right now, exceeding our forecast, new store maturity curve, getting off to an excellent start, ROICs and paybacks all working out very well. And that's what gives us the confidence to build the 90-plus stores this year and 100 stores next year.
To your point, we did also acquire 18 Big Lots locations. Those locations, we think of them nothing -- really no differently than we would have retrofit. So about half of the stores that we open a year are new, built-to-suit from scratch. The other half are retrofit where we'll go in and take a piece of real estate that's already been developed and retrofit it and make it fit to a Tractor Supply model.
The Big Lot stores, that's how we think about them, is really a retrofit. And we did the math on will we be better buying this lease-out in the open market after they've gone through the bankruptcy process? Or would we be better off taking them through the bankruptcy process. And we went through both of those views. Obviously, each situation was a little bit independent, but we ended up settling on 18 of them that we thought made financial sense. And they're very easy boxes for us to retrofit. The way they're built in terms of basically a square-ish rectangle, we can set them up just excellent. They work really well for retrofit for Tractor Supply.
And most of those stores will be converted and opened to Tractor Supply stores before the end of this year. So there may be some that flow into 2026. But to Hal's point, it's easy. And it's retrofit stores at the right locations when they're in those markets that we've already identified as part of our target of 3,200, we love to look at those second use locations. And again, part of our portfolio of driving like low-cost, efficient, profitable new stores.
And how do we think about cannibalization for these stores? Again, you've been very successful and consistent at growing a good number of doors every year, 3,200 is the goal. But I would imagine just as things get a little bit more dense, there might be more propensity for cannibalization. So how do you manage that?
There's always some level of cannibalization in our business. And when we look at, evaluate a new store, one, when we evaluate the potential within that store, we hold that store's IRR accountable for any level of cannibalization on existing stores. We're still at the spot where there is what we call in most of these locations, healthy cannibalization. Stores that started out at $6 million or $7 million, they become $8 million, $9 million or $10 million stores, and that box becomes tight.
And so we look at that as well as the opportunity to just grow in an overall market. When we look at cannibalization and new store maturation and the level of contribution it gives to our comp sales, the #1 metric to look at is how much pressure on comp sales is cannibalization giving? How much benefit are we getting from our new store growth, et cetera. And net of those, we're still getting good solid contribution to our comp sales.
If it gets to the point you start to get near that, I think, in retail, then you start questioning, are you getting a little tight on the number of new stores if the cannibalization is outsizing the new store benefit to comp sales. We are not in that position. We continue to have a really good healthy contribution in our comp sales. It's not only part of our top line sales growth, but it's continued one of the many drivers of our comp sales growth.
And then if we could just ask a question around going back to the December Analyst Day, you introduced a long-term algorithm, which updated your long-term comp target of 3% to 5%, your sales growth at 6% to 8% and operating margins of 10% to 10.5%. Again, just given the more volatile environment that we've been in since those targets were put out, how do you think about achieving those targets? And how do you manage through it?
Yes. In December, we introduced that next 5-year long-term algorithm. We feel -- we felt then and feel today very confident about our team's ability to hit the long-term algorithm. As a backdrop, we said, to your point, the 3% to 5% comp, the op margin at 10% to 10.5%, and we said 2025 is more of a transition year. And we said with a number of the macro pressures, we could see 2025, along with the ramping up of our strategic initiatives being that transition year, it's very much playing out like that as a transition year.
You look at the results coming out of Q2, our expectations for the back half of the year. And on the top line, all trend indications are very much in line with what we said and expected. We are entering into and a lot of the reason to believe we are at and achieving the long-term algorithm on the top line of that low -- that high-low or mid-single-digit comp sales. So very much hitting our expectations on that. We also said on the operating margin that with our long-term goal of 10% to 10.5%, that at a low or mid-single-digit comp sales, as we've gone past the peak investment cycle at this point and even Hal mentioned some of the newer initiatives that are more asset-light that we see in a low and mid-single-digit comp sales that we can grow our operating margin 5 to 15 basis points annually.
And so we're seeing strong growth in our gross margin expansion. We said this year as part of our operating margin, we were going to invest 15 or 20 basis points of operating margin to launch these new strategic initiatives. And outside of 2025, with the trends that we're seeing in the business, we believe that we can hit the long-term algorithm and start to also see operating margin expansion with that.
Great. Thank you. We are asking every company that sits with us on stage, Hal you know we've done this enough times, 5 questions. And everybody gets the same questions. And we've already touched about -- on this a little bit in the first question, but health of the consumer. What are your expectations for the environment, a little bit less about your business, more about the environment. In the second half of 2025 relative to the first half, do you expect things to be the same, better or worse?
The same.
And then I know you didn't give guidance for '26, but do you have a view on the health of the consumer for '26, same, better or worse?
The same.
Okay. And We talked a little bit about pricing with regards to tariffs. We talked a little bit about elasticity. Could you maybe talk about what your plans for pricing is for the remainder of this year and into '26? And as an aside, because we -- I didn't ask this before, but should we expect to see much in terms of assortment changes in the back half, given, again, what the supply chain has looked like for the last few months?
Yes. On pricing, I think we continue to just -- I think our merchants and the team now has kind of absorbed tariffs. Still a lot of work and more dynamic than we probably expected going into the year. But I think our team is kind of navigating that now. We've got all the tools set up. We know exactly how that's coming through moving average cost. We've got kind of the lay of the land with our import providers, with our domestic vendors. And we're kind of navigating that well, monitoring the market, the competitive behavior and adjusting accordingly.
And I think we've given our guidance. Kurt just talked about gross margin rate, very comfortable that we can navigate in that construct. And then as we move into 2026, I think the first half is going to be much of the same. The tariffs really, for the most part, didn't start going through at least our P&L, given our December end until really the end of the first half.
So we're going to be cycling that all the second half. I think you'll have a similar set of competitive dynamics occurring then as well. And we expect the consumer to be solid through that. And we think 2026 is setting up to be a solid year for the country and the economy and for Tractor, particularly if we're going into a little bit of a rate down cycle.
Our third question is around inventory. Can you talk about your expectations for inventory growth in the second half? And do you see or have you seen any disruption in shipments due to the global supply chain?
Yes. Don't see -- I mean, inventory, first off, I'd say, has been a hallmark of success for Tractor Supply. I think we're one of the maybe only retailers that had not had an inventory situation at some point over the last 5 or 6 years. It's pretty much been within a point or 2 of comp sales growth each quarter, our inventory growth and would expect that to continue to be the case. We've also been very fortunate even in the context of tariffs and some of the supply chain disruptions to have not had issues in our stores in terms of out of stocks.
Teams navigated and managed those very well, found alternative vendors where there was necessary or worked with our existing domestic vendors to adjust accordingly. I don't think you'll see much of that going into the back half of this year. Maybe a few of the seasonal programs, you might see a little lighter buys and some slightly higher inventories because those came out of countries that have higher tariffs, everybody is kind of trying to figure out those elasticities. But otherwise, I think you're going to -- for the vast majority of our business, it's steady as she goes and very straightforward. And I think it will -- that's how it will play out for next year as well.
Okay. Our next question is on margins. What is your expectation for non-tariff margin drivers? This is into '26 again. Freight, wages, materials, do you expect it to be the better, same or worse?
Starting with freight. I think the backdrop is generally freight, both domestic and import are at or near pre-pandemic levels today. And so the backdrop puts us in a position with pretty much the same, maybe a slight or modest rate increases, I'd expect, for 2026. Wages, same. And then on materials, for us, commodity pricing is probably the biggest material type input cost. And commodity pricing is also at more historic lows at this point. And so it's hard to predict what commodity pricing is going to be like in 2026, but our expectation would be same to modestly up in 2026 based on the position where it's at today.
Great. And then our last question is about the competitive landscape and consolidation. I do think we've seen more bankruptcies and more door closures this year than we've seen in quite some time. Do you think market share consolidation will speed up, slow down or be about the same in '26?
I think it will be about the same. To your point on retail, 2020, '21 and '22, I think as we -- the industry went through those dynamics, it delayed some of the inevitable, right, that we all -- if you go back and you read about retail in 2017, 2018, 2019, there was a lot of store closings occurring and a lot of commentary about future store closings occurring. And I think '20, 21, '22 delayed that, and you're starting to see that pick up in '23 and in '24 and into '25. And I think that will continue as we look forward.
The good news is for Tractor Supply is, we haven't shut a store down in 10 years -- over 10 years. We have -- all of our stores are incredibly cash flow positive, profitable, doing very well. We've got -- we have significant scale in our industry and a number of other distinct advantages as we talked about, whether it's our digital assets, our supply chain, our Neighbor's Club program. We take all those competitive advantages, and I think it allows us to continue to gain share.
And we've been a beneficiary of share for multiple decades now in the industry. And I think certainly, the fragmentation is still out there. I think small businesses struggle in these sorts of dynamic environments; particularly, the ones that we compete with, which are mostly kind of operate on a cash flow basis. And that all sets ourselves up for some nice dynamics to continue to take share.
Okay. And with that, we'll conclude our chat. Thank you.
Thank you. Appreciate it.
Thank you.
Thank you for joining us today.
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Tractor Supply — Goldman Sachs 32nd Annual Global Retailing Conference 2025
Tractor Supply — Goldman Sachs 32nd Annual Global Retailing Conference 2025
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Management sieht den Konsumenten als robust; Tractor Supply setzt auf ein mehrgleisiges Wachstumsmodell (Kerngeschäft + neue Initiativen) ohne neue Jahres-Guidance für 2026.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Allivet: Übernahme integriert in das Neighbor's Club-Kundenbindungsprogramm; Pet-Pharmacy-Strategie adressiert Haustierbedarf (Management schätzt ~$1 Mrd. Opportunity).
- Direct Sales: B2B‑Vertrieb für größere Betriebe (Höfe, Zuchten) als weiteres ~$1 Mrd.-Wachstumsfeld.
- Final Mile & Lokalisierung: Aufbau eigener Zustellung (1 Truck pro ~3–4 Stores) und gezielte Lokalisierung von ~15% der Fläche bei Fusion-Remodels.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Storeplan: Management plant ~90+ neue Stores dieses Jahr und ~100 im nächsten Jahr; zusätzlich 18 Big‑Lots-Standorte wurden übernommen (Retrofits, viele Konversionen noch dieses Jahr).
- Margenansatz: H1-Gross‑Margin +30 Basispunkte (bps); H2 erwartet weiteres, aber kleineres Expansionstempo (~5–15 bps).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Tarife & Preise: Diskussion über Zölle: Management erwartet, dass Zollkosten H2 durchschlagen; marktweite Preiserhöhungen "ein bis wenige Prozentpunkte", einzelne SKUs 5–10% ohne beobachtete Elastizität bislang.
- Inventar & Supply: Keine nennenswerten Lieferausfälle; Inventory‑Wachstum soll nahe Comp‑Sales bleiben (innerhalb von ~1–2 Prozentpunkten).
- Real Estate / Kannibalisierung: Neue Stores werden auf IRR‑Basis bewertet; derzeit "gesunde" Kannibalisierung, kein Grund zur Verlangsamung des Expansionsplans.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Relevanz: Keine Richtungsänderung der Strategie — Tractor Supply kombiniert stabile Kernkategorien mit gezielten Initiativen (Allivet, Direct Sales, Final Mile, Lokalisierung). Kurzfristige Belastungen durch Zölle erwartet, Management sieht aber Margen- und Wachstumspfad intakt; Investoren sollten strategische Investitionskosten und die sukzessive Wirkung der neuen Initiativen beobachten.
Tractor Supply — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Tractor Supply Company's conference call to discuss second quarter 2025 results. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that reproduction of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization of Tractor Supply Company. And as a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mary Winn Pilkington, Senior Vice President of Investor and Public Relations for Tractor Supply Company. Mary Winn, please go ahead.
Thank you, Tamia. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your time and participation in today's call. On the call today participating in our prepared remarks are Hal Lawton, our CEO; Kurt Barton, our CFO; and Colin Yankee, our Chief Supply Chain Officer. In addition to Colin, we will also have Seth Estep, Rob Mills, and John Ordus join the call for the question-and-answer portion. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the floor for questions. Please note that a supplemental slide presentation has been made available on our website to accompany today's earnings release.
Let me now reference the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This call may contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including the future operating and financial performance of the company. In many cases, these risks and uncertainties are beyond our control. Although the company believes the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations or any of its forward-looking statements will prove to be correct, and actual results may differ materially from expectations.
Important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements are included at the end of the press release issued today and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The information contained in this call is accurate only as of the date discussed. Investors should not assume that these statements will remain operative at a later time. Tractor Supply undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed in this call.
As we move into the Q&A session, please limit yourself to 1 question to ensure everyone has the opportunity to participate. If you have additional questions, please feel free to rejoin the queue. We appreciate your understanding and cooperation. We will also be available after the call for any further discussions. Thank you for your time and attention this morning, and it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Hal.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. To kick off today's call, I'll begin with a high-level overview of our second quarter performance, then I'll turn it over to Kurt for a more detailed review of the quarter and our outlook going forward. After that, Colin Yankee, our EVP and Chief Supply Chain Officer, will join to share an update on our Final Mile initiative, one of the most exciting and impactful transformations underway at Tractor Supply. I'll then return to close out the call with some final thoughts before Q&A.
Before we dive into the results, I want to take a moment to thank our 52,000-plus Tractor Supply team members. Their dedication, resilience and passion for serving Life Out Here continue to set us apart. Truly, it's through their dedication and their legendary customer service and deep product knowledge that we continue to earn our customers' trust and loyalty. Their efforts are the foundation of our leadership in rural retail and central to how we deliver value every day.
Overall, we are pleased with the record results we delivered in the quarter. Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and a tepid start to spring, our sales performance exceeded our modest expectations. This performance reflects continued strength in our core needs-based categories and share gains across key seasonal businesses. Before getting into the details of Q2, I'd like to highlight 4 trends. First, we delivered comp transaction growth in the quarter, which is a hallmark of Tractor Supply. Second, customer engagement was exceptional. We hit numerous all-time highs across key customer metrics, including Neighbor's Club membership, customer satisfaction, total customers shopped, new customer growth and record sales of live birds. And I could go on and on and on. Customer loyalty is a hallmark of Tractor Supply.
Third, average unit retail turned positive, right in line with the inflection point that we called out at the beginning of the year and last quarter. This shift supported comp ticket growth in the quarter and positions us well for the back half of the year. And fourth and perhaps most importantly, we saw sequential comp sales improvement across the quarter. Each period performed better than the one before it, and that momentum has continued into early Q3. These trends underscore the resilience of our business model and the relevance of our offering, especially in today's environment. Our team's disciplined execution and deep connection to our customers continue to drive performance across the business.
Now jumping into some of the details. These strengths translated into solid financial results for the second quarter. We grew net sales by 4.5% with a comparable store sales increase of 1.5%. This was our largest sales quarter ever, reaching $4.44 billion. Diluted EPS was $0.81. Our comparable store sales performance was driven by a 1% increase in transactions and a 0.5% increase in average ticket. In many ways, the quarter played out as expected once spring arrived across our markets. While April was impacted by wet weather and a slow seasonal start, May and June delivered comp sales above the quarterly average, with June marking our strongest comp month of the quarter. We are pleased with the momentum exiting Q2 as customers reengaged with seasonal categories and our core needs-based assortments.
Turning to category performance. Our consumable, usable, and edible or C.U.E. products led the way with solid unit growth that consistently ran above our chain average. These demand-driven essentials remain a cornerstone of our business. A standout within C.U.E. was Chick Days. This year's event was our most successful to date. More customers than ever are turning to back our poultry, and we saw strong growth across both new and existing customers. From live birds to coops, feed and supplies, we saw strong broad-based demand across the category. Chick Days is retail theater at its best, uniquely Tractor Supply and reinforces the position we have in rural retail.
In pet food, we believe the market has passed the trough of the downturn and is entering a recovery cycle, albeit slow and modest. We introduced new brands in both dog and cat across the spectrum of value to super premium with a focus on what differentiates Tractor Supply. We're actively refining our space allocation resets to adjust product assortment and relevant brands to ensure we're meeting the evolving needs of pet parents.
At the same time, we're seeing momentum and continue to invest in our complementary pet initiatives. Allivet is expanding our reach in pet pharmacy, while pet wash stations and mobile vet clinics continue to deliver strong customer growth and loyalty. Seasonal merchandise performed well, including live goods, and we saw positive contributions from apparel, gift and decor. Our Garden Centers and seasonal live good tents supported strong growth in the lawn and garden category. We have more than 650 Garden Centers in operation and activated over 250 seasonal tents this spring. These efforts reflect a meaningful gain in merchandising capability and helped us to meet our customers' passions for gardening and tending to their property.
Big ticket performed better than we anticipated. Customers continue to rely on the trusted advice of our team members when navigating larger purchases, a testament to the legendary service that defines the Tractor Supply in-store experience. We also believe we somewhat benefited from the bathtub effect as seasonal demand shifted from Q1 into Q2 and has continued on into Q3. In total, these were moderated by some softness in select discretionary categories, including pet hardlines, gun safes and air compressors.
Additionally, certain later-cycle spring businesses such as chemicals, sprayers and pressure washers performed below expectations in the quarter but it picked up as we moved into Q3. These areas of pressure were not unexpected, given the broader consumer sentiment and how the spring season unfolded.
Now let's turn to customer engagement. Our Neighbor's Club loyalty program remains a key driver of customer engagement and a meaningful competitive advantage. In Q2, we had all-time highs across several customer metrics. We ended the quarter with a record 41 million members who accounted for over 80% of our total sales. We also saw record total customer count and an all-time high and high-value customers. And that's defined as those who shop frequently and spend more across categories.
As part of our Neighbor's Club, we just celebrated the second anniversary of our Hometown Heroes program with a $1 million donation across 10 charities focused on military service members, veterans and first responders. Hometown Heroes receive top-tier Neighbor's Club status and benefits. Notably, about 15% of the Hometown Heroes are new to Tractor Supply, highlighting the program's reach and appeal.
Shifting to the digital front. Our digital sales grew at a mid-single-digit rate for the quarter. Orders fulfilled by our stores remain the most popular fulfillment option, accounting for nearly 80% of digital orders, a reflection of the convenience and strategic placement of our more than 2,300 stores across rural America. Our store footprint continues to be a powerful enabler of digital growth. We saw robust performance in deliver-from-store and same-day delivery, which reinforces the unique advantage of our local presence in the communities we serve. Together, these capabilities enhance convenience for our customers and drive continued momentum in our digital ecosystem.
Turning to the physical footprint. In the second quarter, we opened 24 new Tractor Supply stores and 2 Petsense by Tractor Supply stores, and we closed 1 Petsense store. We have a robust pipeline of low-risk organic growth opportunities ahead of us. Our recent acquisition of 18 Big Lots locations gives us great confidence to start 2026 with our new store pipeline in a strong position as we anticipate stepping up to 100 new stores next year.
Over the past 2 years, we have significantly enhanced our real estate development capabilities, improving new store economics and fusion remodel returns. We continue to make progress on our fee development program, which gives us greater control over the time line and cost of new stores and allows us to capture approximately 15% rent savings over the lease term of a new store.
All in, we're pleased with the progress we've made across the business in the first half of the year. Our performance in the second quarter reflects solid execution, continued resilience in our core categories and strong alignment with our long-term strategic priorities. Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, we recognize the uncertainty that remains from macroeconomic pressures to evolving tariffs. That said, our business model is built for resilience.
Given our performance year-to-date and our outlook for the balance of the year, we are reconfirming our guidance for 2025. With a predominantly U.S. sourced assortment, trusted vendor relationships and a scalable flexible supply chain, we believe we are well positioned to navigate near-term volatility and to continue driving long-term value. And with that, I'll turn it over to Kurt.
Thank you, Hal, and good morning, everyone. Echoing Hal's remarks, we are pleased with our second quarter financial results, which delivered record sales and net income. As Hal noted, the quarter began more slowly than anticipated, largely due to a delayed start to the spring season. Based on my experience, when spring arrives later, especially when accompanied by favorable moisture levels, we typically see a more compressed peak selling window but also a shift in demand to later in the season. That's exactly what we observed this year with spring-related sales activity effectively pushed back roughly a month.
From a regional standpoint, 6 of our 7 geographic regions delivered positive comparable sales, all within a tight band. Notably, every region posted positive comps in the month of June and we're encouraged to see this momentum continuing in the third quarter. As we indicated last quarter, we expected the second quarter to mark the turning point from the deflationary headwinds we've been facing, and that outlook proved to be on target. After experiencing 6 consecutive quarters of pressure on our comparable sales from deflation, the impact this quarter was rather neutral.
Moving down our income statement, gross margin expanded by 31 basis points to 36.9%, driven by disciplined product cost management and consistent execution of our ongoing everyday low price strategy. I want to thank our merchant team who continues to play a critical role in delivering results through our product cost management initiatives even in a dynamic environment. We're seeing meaningful benefits from their disciplined execution combined with the ongoing efficiencies we're capturing across our supply chain. These efforts continue to drive our gross margin performance and improve our overall cost structure.
Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percent of sales increased by 51 basis points to 23.9%. This increase reflects planned investments in strategic growth initiatives, which included higher depreciation and last year's opening of our tenth distribution center. Additionally, we experienced a modest deleverage of fixed costs, given the level of comparable store sales. We remain laser-focused on cost control and ongoing productivity initiatives, highlighted by continued high performance of our distribution center network, which has increased productivity for the last 3 years and delivered its highest second quarter efficiency results.
Operating income grew 2.9% to $577.8 million. Net income increased 1.1% to $430 million, and diluted EPS grew 2.8% to $0.81. Our balance sheet remains strong and is a clear competitive advantage as we navigate an evolving macro environment. Merchandise inventories totaled $3.1 billion at quarter end, representing a modest 1.5% increase in average inventory per store. This increase supports improved in-stock levels in key C.U.E. categories to meet customer demand while also reflecting the impact of tariffs on second quarter direct import receipts. We're very pleased with both the positioning and quality of our inventory. Our consistent, thoughtful approach to inventory management continues to be a key differentiator for Tractor Supply.
We returned $196 million to shareholders this quarter through dividends and share repurchases. For the full year, we now anticipate share repurchases will be in the range of $325 million to $375 million, below our original outlook of $525 million to $600 million, reflecting a more measured pace of repurchases as we manage capital allocation with discipline.
As Hal shared, we are reaffirming our fiscal 2025 outlook. We continue to recognize the evolving macroeconomic environment and are closely monitoring indicators of consumer spending. We continue to expect net sales growth of 4% to 8%. Comparable store sales are projected to be flat to up 4%, reflecting a balanced view of the current environment and our ongoing initiatives to drive traffic and anticipated ticket gains. Our operating margin is anticipated to be between 9.5% and 9.9% with net income between $1.07 billion and $1.17 billion. This translates to EPS in the range of $2 and $2.18.
As we noted last quarter, the current tariff landscape is creating some added cost pressure. We're proactively addressing this by working closely with our supply chain and vendor partners to mitigate the impact. As to timing, we have seen the tariff impact begin to come through on our direct imports. There have been modest cost concessions on nondirect inventory. At this point, there has been limited impact to the average unit retail. All of this aligns with our expectations that the impacts related to tariffs will primarily occur in the second half of this year and beyond.
Given the ongoing developments and the dynamic nature of tariff policies, we are reaffirming our guidance to encompass what we see as a range of possibilities. That said, as we shared on our last call, we're thoughtfully managing the business toward the midpoint of that range while remaining agile as the situation evolves. Looking to the second half of the year, we expect to see an acceleration in comparable sales performance, supported by transaction growth, gains in average comp ticket and soft compares in the second half of the year. It's also worth noting that the prior year had minimal weather-related sales benefit with only 1 notable hurricane and limited winter weather.
In addition, the lower mix of big ticket items in the second half of the year creates less reliance on big ticket sales. These factors give us cautious optimism as we move into the back half of the year. We continue to anticipate gross margin expansion in the second half of the year, albeit at a lower rate of expansion compared to the first half. As we have previously shared, we begin to lap the transportation cost benefits from the new DC, and we anticipate shifting from favorable compares to modestly higher year-over-year transportation costs.
Additionally, tariffs are anticipated to create some slight pressure on gross margin as we balance cost increases with maintaining competitive everyday low pricing. On the SG&A front, while we do foresee some deleverage in the back half, it is projected to be less pronounced than what we experienced in the first half, reflecting the anticipation of leverage on fixed costs with stronger comp sales performance, lapping the opening of the new DC in the prior year as well as our ongoing focus on disciplined expense management.
We remain confident in our ability to execute our strategic plan and deliver long-term value for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn it over to Colin to provide more details on our Final Mile initiative. In my 25-plus years with Tractor Supply, this stands out as the natural next evolution in our supply chain. In my view, it's a true differentiator that strengthens our position and enhances how we serve our customers. And now, Colin, I'll turn it over to you.
Thank you, Kurt. Before I get into the details of our final mile expansion, I want to take a moment to recognize the remarkable progress our team has made. In just a few short years, we've transformed our supply chain from a solid operation to a nimble, purpose-built, digitally-enabled, customer-facing network, one that not only supports growth but fuels a competitive advantage for Tractor Supply.
Our supply chain is uniquely designed for Life Out Here. We built a network to support our specialized store format, ensuring that our customers have access to the products they need to take care of their land, their livestock, their livelihood and their lifestyle. Over the last 5 years, we've invested in our supply chain, and those investments have driven material returns. That includes our direct-to-customer capabilities using our own distribution network.
Our next step is fully integrating our Final Mile solution with our end-to-end supply chain to support our delivery needs, whether those sales are generated in store, online or through our direct sales business. It's important to recognize that every element of our supply chain is tailored to the demand of our compact store footprint in rural communities and the specialized assortment our customers depend on. We move a lot of tonnage and a wide variety of products through our small store footprint. And that means we have to be precise in how we flow product and anticipate demand patterns.
There isn't much room for error, and we've built a supply chain that uses world-class technology and data analytics to make all that happen. To achieve that, we've scaled machine learning across 90% of our replenishment forecasts, added new logistics nodes, launched gig-enabled and team member delivery capabilities and are now moving more volume with greater precision and flexibility than ever before. Our teams move quickly using their knowledge of our assortment, the complexity of operating in these rural locations, and applying our operational excellence principles to deploy new Final Mile capabilities across more markets in the first half of 2025.
Hal and I have gone out and done deliveries with our drivers, and that experience quickly demonstrates that this is about more than dropping a parcel on a front porch. We can and we will handle more of those small items with the capabilities we're putting in place. But we're also doing things that others can't. We're delivering dozens of stall mats that weigh 94 pounds each, 16-foot fence panels, stock tanks and multiple pallets of animal feed on a recurring basis to the same customers. These are high-weight high-volume goods that don't fit in the back of a sedan or a van.
Many of these deliveries involve driving down gravel roads, navigating through gates directly on to properties where our customers live and work. In many cases, our team members are trusted to enter our customers' property and have their gate codes as well as specific details about where to place the product, extending that legendary service we strive for in our stores out on to our customers' land.
With our eyes on direct sales, we know we need to scale this network and integrate it with our end-to-end supply chain. Today, we have nationwide DC coverage where every DC replenishes stores and also serves as a fulfillment center for direct-to-customer orders. Our mixing center network provides just-in-time replenishment for our fastest-moving products. And with 90% of digital deliveries ending up within 40 miles of an existing Tractor Supply store, we have the foundation in place to scale a final mile network capable of serving our customers, whether that's for a single bag of product or several pallets.
To support this, we're leveraging a fleet of Tractor Supply delivery drivers equipped with pickup trucks and trailers or stake bed trucks capable of handling these orders to these types of properties, but they're also capable of delivering smaller items while out on their delivery routes. Like the rest of our supply chain, this delivery network is built for the realities of rural living.
With that backdrop, let me take a moment to update you on our Final Mile rollout, a powerful competitive differentiator and a key strategic enabler for our direct sales and digital growth initiatives, each of which we see as $1 billion incremental sales opportunities. Since January of this year, the team has been incredibly busy with our phased rollout. This is a highly coordinated effort involving store operations, supply chain and technology all working together to ensure a seamless customer experience.
I often compare our approach to that of the auto parts retailers, leveraging their existing store networks to enable last-mile delivery without building costly new distribution infrastructure. We're implementing a hub-and-spoke model. We are currently in market across 145 hub stores with an additional 220 stores covered as spokes. This brings our total final mile coverage to about 15% of stores covered at the halfway point of the year. By year-end, we anticipate having about 25% of the chain with Final Mile capabilities. All of this is in addition to the existing same-day delivery capabilities we have in all of our stores with third-party delivery partners.
The early results from our Final Mile rollout are exceeding expectations, and they're proving out the value of this initiative as a meaningful growth driver. In markets where Final Mile is active, we're seeing average order size of nearly $400, which is a multiple of our average basket. Our largest order has been valued at more than $40,000, a higher customer satisfaction score than other delivery options, a 10x lower return rate and stronger repeat engagement from high-value big barn customers.
Our Final Mile is more than a logistics upgrade, we are playing offense where we have the infrastructure, the density and the trust to handle these types of deliveries in rural markets. Our drive for legendary service now extends beyond our stores and into our customers' barns, workshops and fields, reinforcing why Tractor Supply is the most dependable supplier for Life Out Here.
To wrap up, what sets our model apart is the integration of our distribution centers, mixing centers and local store hubs, enabling cost-effective fulfillment of more inventory without the need for massive stand-alone infrastructure build-out. This gives us a clear operational edge in the hard-to-reach final mile that's so critical in rural America. Now I'll turn it back over to Hal to close out our prepared remarks.
Thank you, Colin. I hope Colin's update on our Final Mile progress convey the excitement and confidence we have in the strategic investment and the role it will play in further differentiating Tractor Supply from the competition. As we enter the back half of the year, we're focused on delivering highly relevant seasonal events, product innovation and exclusive brand launches that reinforce our leadership in rural lifestyle retail.
From hardlines to lifestyle, pet to poultry and digital to in-store, we're strengthening our position as the most dependable supplier for our customers living Life Out Here. Over the next several weeks, we'll be celebrating Purina Days in store and online. Purina's iconic red checkerboard and Tractor Supply's deep rural roots share a heritage built on trust, quality and commitment to animal care. Together, we offer a partnership that no other retailer can replicate, grounded in decades of serving the needs of Life Out Here.
Nearly 90% of our customers own a pet or animal and approximately half have both. Purina Days allows us to deepen our connection with customers by showcasing expert knowledge, trust and nutrition solutions and exclusive offers to support the health and well-being across all their animal species. This event reinforces our leadership in animal nutrition and care from backyard chickens to show cattle and from barn cats to beloved family dogs.
Looking ahead, one of the marquee moments this fall would be our event, a signature seasonal activation that continues to gain traction with our customers year after year. This event is designed to meet the needs of outdoor enthusiasts and landowners preparing for the fall hunting season and wildlife season. We'll be featuring a curated assortment that includes deer feeds and wildlife and animal management products, trail cameras and seasonal apparel, all designed to help our customers prepare their land and gear up with confidence for the season.
Importantly, the deer event drives cross-category engagement and reinforces our authority in outdoor, wildlife and hardlines. It also aligns seamlessly with our broader merchandising cadence and marketing strategy as we transition into fall. We're also excited to build out our Field & Stream offering, a long-term commitment to an iconic outdoor brand with a deep connection to the rural lifestyle. This move unites 2 names with a strong heritage for customers who love the outdoors. We're expanding the assortment to include wildlife, safes and outdoor gear, thoughtfully curated for the needs of our customers. Field & Stream is a natural fit within our portfolio, and we believe it will become a cornerstone of our long-term merchandising strategy.
On the hardlines side, we're very pleased with the introduction of Lincoln Electric. This line includes welding tools and accessories that enhance our hardlines assortment and complement existing brands like Hobart and Job Smart, giving customers a wider range of price points and performance tiers. Lincoln positions Tractor Supply as a serious destination for rural trades people, farmers and DIYers who demand performance and reliability.
Looking further ahead, our Halloween, holiday and winter seasonal sets are coming together with a thoughtful mix of function and festivity. From cold weather gear to seasonal decor and gifting, our assortments are designed to deliver both inspiration and utility as our customers prepare for the colder months. Beyond seasonal execution, we remain focused on our new growth opportunities, including our direct sales and Final Mile Solutions, our pet and animal Rx platform through the Allivet acquisition, fusion localization remodels and our growing retail media network. Each of these represents meaningful incremental value drivers as we continue to evolve our Life Out Here strategy.
Our stores and online platform are ready for the second half of the year. We've invested inventory servicing capabilities to help our customers live Life Out Here. As always, our team remains focused on what we can control, investing with purpose, managing cost of discipline and, most importantly, serving our customers. Thank you for your time today. With that, operator, we're now ready to open up for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.
2. Question Answer
Congratulations on the turn in comps. And Kurt, how should we think about the second half? We were prevailing. We had a little stronger traffic. Does the complexion of traffic and ticket changed at all in your mind versus where we were a quarter ago? And then is there anything to call out with the traffic in the second quarter? Were there certain categories that got better, meaning transaction count got better versus getting a little bit worse?
Simeon, yes, thank you for the question. Good morning, everybody. In regards to second half comps, as I indicated in my prepared remarks and I'll share a little bit of extra color, first, on transactions. We have had consistent solid transactions throughout the first half of the year with a 2% transaction growth in Q1, 1% in Q2. Our transaction growth continues to be solid. We expect that to continue and to be a contributor to the second half of the year. It's the consumable side of the business and the growth in customers and Neighbor's Club members that are driving that. So we do not anticipate seeing those trends changing.
In regards to the ticket side of it, we continue to see the evolution from and the shift from the deflationary impact moving to inflationary and then some of the other pressures, including tariff driving some benefit to the ticket. In summary, for the second half of the year, we see demand solid, our customers in a strong position. The expectation for the second half of the year would be balanced between both ticket and transactions, and it would continue to have a bit of a balance as you saw in second quarter. We are expecting, as I indicated, inflection and stronger comp sales in the back half of the year than the first half.
The next question comes from Robert Ohmes with Bank of America.
I wanted to just follow up on other drivers to the back half. I know that there were some key seasonal items that were drivers in the second quarter. How are you guys thinking about a seasonal as a driver in the back half? And also, the July strength, was there any pull forward in that from your customers supporting big ticket or anything related to concerns about tariff pricing?
Robby, and thanks for joining the call today and for the question. Just kind of doubling down on Kurt's comments about the second half. I'd start out by just saying we continue to be optimistic about a step change in our comp performance in the second half. We anticipated this really all the way back to our investor conference day. We foreshadowed that. We had reiterated it in our Q4 earnings call, talked about it again in our Q1 earnings call. And what we kind of foreshadowed and we're optimistic about is what is playing out.
As it relates to the back half of the year, as Kurt said, we fully expect comp transactions to continue to be strong, and we expect we will have positive average ticket in the second half as well. Those 2 coming together to lead to a step change in our comp run rate from the first half of the year to the second half of the year. I'd say in addition to just the natural math, we have a number of things that are kind of playing to our advantage in the second half.
The first is we have some favorable lapping. Last year, it was a really warm July with a lot of drought. It's the exact opposite this year with a lot of moisture in the ground and continued very strong momentum in the month of July. So to your point, Robby, did we pull things from July into June? Absolutely not. In fact, the momentum, as I mentioned in the call from June has continued and even strengthened into July. So we have favorable momentum in July lapping.
As you look into the balance of the year, we've got likely favorable lapping with the lack of emergency response last year. There was really only 1 notable storm last year, and it kind of split a little bit across Q3 and Q4. And then we had really no winter in our Q3. So we have a lot of favorability in kind of last year lapping as well.
And the final thing I'll add is rural America is doing very well right now. There is strong consumer confidence in rural America. We continue to see domestic migration into rural America. Rural America disproportionately benefit from the job creation that's going on. If you look at the 2.2 million gross jobs that have been created this year, there's a disproportion of those in rural America next to urban America. And Life Out Here is doing very well.
So as we look towards the back half of the year, we've got favorable kind of just math dynamics. We've got favorable lapping. We've got a lot of events in place, and we've got rural America doing well. So we feel very good about our second half and the inflection that we're optimistic about, and we're already seeing it as I said in our July numbers.
The next question comes from Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.
So my question is, do you think that the weather was a net headwind in the second quarter? Perhaps that the right trend is 2% as we're building into the back half? And as you think about the acceleration that you mentioned in June and July, it seems like maybe June was running mid-single digit if you were flat heading into June and July would be better. So the other way to ask the question would be, do you look at March to July in its entirety in terms of the base of comp and as we think about the acceleration in the back half? And any comment on explicit inflation expectations in the back half?
Just a couple of follow-ups on that. Yes, I mean, I think spring, first of all, plays out different every year. And so there's kind of a natural starting point to spring and a natural kind of end point to spring every year and kind of just -- those are different every year and you have different peaks every year. This year, spring started significantly late. I mean, arguably, even in the deep South, it was mid- to late March before you even saw the spring uptick. And it was early May in the North, arguably a little later that you saw it. So I would say it shifted back 4 to 6 weeks on the start.
And then on the end, I don't think it's finished yet. A lot of times, it will end July 4, sometimes Father's Day. This year, it's extended beyond. We have a lot of moisture in the ground, grasses are green, bugs are out, weeds are out. There's a lot of mowing, a lot of weed control, a lot of pest control still occurring. All that said, our C.U.E. business continues to be very strong, poultry, bedding. You look across the board, lubricants right now, propane sales, forage, those businesses are doing very, very well. So it's not just seasonal.
Final point, to your comment on the 2% comp, I guess while we're not giving quarter-to-quarter comps, what I would say is that what's implied -- as Kurt said, we're guiding the business to the midpoint of our annual guidance. And that certainly implies higher than a 2% comp for the back half of the year, and that is what we are looking for.
Chris, this is Kurt. I'll just add on the inflation question that you asked for. That does imply with ticket increase that we are seeing not just in the commodity, that's not where the expected inflation is, but there will be incremental inflation across the entirety of the product category. So yes, we do anticipate having some inflationary benefit in the back half of the year versus the historical deflation that we've been seeing in the last 2 years.
The following question comes from Seth Sigman with Barclays.
Actually, I was going to follow up on that last point around the inflation. Can you talk a little bit more about the cadence of the price changes that you're planning here that drives that inflation in the back half of the year? And I think at some point, we may have talked about low to mid-single-digit type of tariff-driven inflation. Is that still your expectation for the second half of the year? And then just finally, elasticity, what have you embedded here for the guidance? Any thoughts on that?
We're roughly planning for a balanced ticket and comp transactions for the back half, as Kurt said, so you can kind of reverse engineer that on what our implied comps are and what our implied average ticket it would need for the second half. And there's a little range in that. We feel very confident in looking at what our average ticket is going to be from Q3 and Q4 on our C.U.E. products. Those we have great visibility to on its current average unit retail, what our average -- moving average unit costs are and how that's going to play out in the second half.
That's been the underlying inflation that we've been calling out for 2 or 3 quarters, and that we still have very good visibility to. On the tariff-related products, we have excellent visibility into what that pricing will be for Q3 and have good visibility into how that will affect our AUR, and we'll be watching for elasticities very closely. Q4, we have good visibility into but are still being maintaining a lot of flexibility with all of our eyes on the August 1 tariff deadline.
And we've put in place a number of tactics to give us a lot of flexibility in Q4 on pricing. And we've got a lot of draft spreadsheets on pricing and that -- a lot of that will be determined post August 1. We've got a lot of flexibility on that. But net-net, there's a relative level of implied inflation on all of our tariff products. It's just varying ranges and we leverage our portfolio strategy for that.
The following comes from Steven Zaccone with Citigroup.
A lot of focus on same-store sales. I wanted to shift to margins. As you know, you're calling for this step change in comps in the back half of the year. Can you just help us think to the flow-through to margins and then EPS? Maybe what drives upside to the gross margin in the back half? And then on SG&A, Kurt, just help us think through the level of same-store sales growth you need to leverage SG&A.
Yes. Steven, on the operating margin, the first half for the -- versus the second half is very much 2 different stories, and I'll try to give you a bit of additional color in regards to the reference points that I already had in my prepared remarks. But in the gross margin, we had easier compares and we start to lap some of those benefits in the second half of the year. So as we said in the beginning of the year going into this year, we saw stronger gross margin performance in the first half than the second half. So of our range on gross margin, the second half of the year will be at the low end of that range on gross margin.
On the SG&A side, as we've now lapped the opening of a distribution center and have higher comps expected for the back half of the year, while we see the gross margin below the first half in the second half, we also see SG&A really almost half of the level of deleverage in the second half that you saw in the first half. So operating margin in our -- if you look at the base case, there's some operating margin decline year-over-year. We said we're making investments in these strategic initiatives.
On the gross margin, mix is a little bit stronger pressure this year. Tariffs puts a little bit of pressure, but we believe we can still maintain even at these elevated comps, we can maintain the operating margin rate that we gave in our guide.
The next question comes from Michael Lasser with UBS.
One for Seth and one for Colin. My question for Seth, is the nature of the inflation that Tractor is going to benefit from in the back half of the year going to be different than the market has been accustomed to where it's going to be more on the non-C.U.E. items? So what have you seen already from an elasticity perspective and how are you planning that? And then my question for Colin is on the new capabilities, obviously, Amazon is making a big push in the rural areas. Does Tractor's new capabilities make it more of a competitor to this other big player? And does that change the complexion of the business?
Thanks, Michael. This is Seth, thanks for the question. To hit your first question first on elasticities and kind of the nature of inflation in the back half, to piggyback some of Hal's comments, first and foremost, I would just say we have a portfolio pricing approach to how we can manage both our margin dollars and margin rate as we approach pricing in the back half.
I would just say the merchants have been working with our suppliers to assess where we can go find alternative sources of supply. We have had a tariff task force quickly stood up to where we can navigate some of the cost or cost pressures that might be coming through. And at this time, they are moderate in nature with the ability to approach those with a partnership approach.
In the past, when we've seen similar inflationary factors that aren't just C.U.E.-related, specifically in times like we're navigating right now, whether it be tariffs in 2018, 2019 as well as just the inflationary period coming out of COVID, when the entire market tends to have to make strategic pricing moves and move, typically elasticities tend to go down slightly as well. We are -- we have a bunch of different scenarios modeled. I feel good about the tools and the team we have in place, and I'm confident in the belief that we'll be able to appropriately manage the margins as we look to the back half.
Yes, Michael, for the second part of the question there, what I'd say is what we're doing is we're taking a contemporary approach to rural delivery with all the systems and sophistication that you expect from Tractor Supply as we compete with regional competitors, co-ops, your local fencing company. We have great confidence in this initiative because we've got the locations where our customers live, we have the inventory our customers need, and we have the supply chain built for this rural terrain.
Just a little bit of color commentary on what we're doing. In Q2, our team did 75,000 deliveries out there and 75,000 times, we've been able to go out in people's properties and engage with them and extend that legendary service out there. We're able to get a wider variety of products using our Final Mile delivery out there in greater quantities. But also we're seeing customers choose that for the more convenience types of deliveries that they need as they're managing their lifestyle and their jobs as they live their lives there.
I cannot understate the power of the trust and relationship between our drivers and the customer and the relationship that's there, that is different than other kind of delivery providers. What I'll say is we're only going to get better as we continue to build this out. We're going to keep you updated on it, but we're really looking on how we're extending our legendary service from our stores out on to our customers' properties, not a fundamental change in the business model.
The following question comes from Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett Research Advisors.
Can you discuss early results in PetRx? How many Neighbor's Club members were already using PetRx? And then how many Neighbor's Club members, I guess, can you add to it? And just on the weather as we move into the back half of the year, can you remind us how much in lost sales you think you saw last year in November and December? Obviously, the weather wasn't good but the forecast for November and December is much better for you. So just curious on that front.
All right, Chuck. This is Rob Mills. First, thank you for the question on Allivet. I first want to kind of begin just talking a little bit and sharing just a great appreciation across both Allivet and the TSC teams on this focused strategic initiative. This is a new category for us. We've seen strong cross-functional collaboration between the 2 organizations. And big picture, we're integrating very nicely. In early May, we launched the Rx and OTC categories onto Tractor Supply's platform as well as our mobile property. The launch went really well. We're seeing really strong momentum in the growth of orders and customer adoptions.
Prior to this, the Neighbor's Club penetration was low, but we're putting extreme focus on leveraging our Neighbor's Club data, the capabilities, driving specific campaigns and we're seeing good adoption rate. We haven't shared any kind of formal numbers. We're early into this journey so we're getting a lot of learnings out of the way. But with that being said, we have strong momentum.
When we think about the customer growth, I could tell you in Q2, we saw the strongest customer acquisition growth that we've seen in many years across the Rx and OTC category, especially when you look at the Allivet business. Looking ahead briefly, Q3, we're putting investments on that customer experience. We've gotten some great learnings and feedback from our Neighbor's Club customers. You'll see us focus on even more ease of how we transfer that script, driving in-store training, adoption with our team members, to drive education with our customers and then just overall awareness through Neighbor's Club messaging, promotional testing and then leveraging the tools that we have with pet washes, mobile clinics and just in-store signage. So big picture, we're excited. We're early in this journey. We're seeing great adoption, more to come. We'll keep you updated but we have a positive trend, and week-over-week, we're growing.
Chuck, this is Kurt. And in regards to the second half weather last year, the 2 biggest pressure points where we last year in the second half landed really or produced really about a flattish comp. We said weather and some of the pressure on discretionary spend last year. Q3 had the biggest weather pressure, and we saw no real favorable weather with the heat and the drought. So we are cycling 2 quarters where weather was a net negative. We didn't quantify the specifics then, so I won't try to go ahead and project that. But we know as Hal said, it's a favorable compare that we'll be lapping this second half.
The next question comes from Steven Forbes with Guggenheim.
Hal or maybe Colin, maybe just a follow-up on the Final Mile initiative, a 2-parter here. So you mentioned AUVs of [ 400 ], but curious if you can comment on who the early adopters are, right, as we think back to sort of your customer segmentation work that you did during the Analyst Day. And then second part, right, how should we frame the ROI ramp of this offering, given the comments around fleet and driver investments, 75,000 quarterly deliveries in the second quarter? But what's like the breakeven number of deliveries and how do we think about sort of the unlock of ROI?
Yes. Steve, I appreciate the question, and thanks for joining the call. Two things. On the customer side, it's very much the big barn customer that we laid out in our investor conference day. These are landowners, animal owners, multi-species animal owners, and their needs are on a weekly basis or more so, and they buy in high order volumes. And as Colin was laying out, the competition that we're facing as we go out and start to call on these customers is a really fragmented set of competition, whether it's the local co-ops. We're seeing a lot of fencing sales so there's a lot of local fencing contractors and those sorts of things that we're competing with. But we're finding the market to be exactly what we anticipated it to be from a customer perspective.
As it relates to the ROI, first off, I'll remind you that the delivery is expense-based. And so we can throttle our investment up and down, whether at an enterprise level or at an individual hub and market level based on the demand that we're seeing. I'll also remind you that there's 3 ways -- 3 levers of demand that the Final Mile is delivering. The first is direct sales, and oftentimes, those 2 are inextricably linked and should be.
But there's also 2 other levers. Our online bulk orders, which is well over $100 million, $150 million -- nearly $200 million of sales, those will now flow through our final mile as well. We will no longer be relying on third-party delivery for that. Those have really low customer set, high return rates. So there's a lot of ROI that comes along with those. And then finally, it enables delivery of items in store when the store sells them and we're unable -- the customer is unable to get them home.
So there's 3 means for that. There's revenue generation, shipping revenue generation that comes along with each as well as obviously product demand fulfillment. We haven't shared the ROIs across each one of those. But as time goes on, you can expect to hear more from us on each of those pieces. But we remain as bullish on them now as we did 6 to 7 months ago when we had our IC day, if not even more. Thanks for the question.
The following comes from David Bellinger with Mizuho.
It's on the buyback being [ notch ] lower. Can you walk us through why the magnitude of the change this year is so dramatic? Where is that capital shifting? And does it say anything at all on how you view your stock and the valuation that's currently attached to it?
Kurt here. We've -- in our long-term guidance, I think it's helpful to first just state in our long-term guidance, we've said in our capital allocation after the commitment to the dividend, we are opportunistic in share repurchases. We are committed to being a buyer of our stock. Our target is to remove 1% to 2% of net shares out annually. Our guidance originally put us at the high end of that.
As we see the capital investment, particularly in inventory and how tariff -- the capital we spent on tariffs that will go on the balance sheet in an environment with higher interest rates, we're being very prudent and wise in our capital allocation and just deciding we're going to make that investment. And as we're in a time of tariff increases to spend the capital there. We have the ability to still remove 1% of the float out of the stock and be able to do that and just shift some of that capital spend from share repurchases into our working capital and inventory and put us in a great position.
So it does not change our guidance in regards to this year's net earnings per share, and so therefore, we think it's the right prudent thing to do for this year. And again, I'll just reiterate, it does not take us outside of what we've said would be our parameters of how we engage in share repurchases.
The next question comes from Peter Benedict with Baird.
I guess there was a comment, I think maybe it was Hal, when you mentioned the term in the pet category or pet food, just maybe, Seth, I don't know if it's for you, could you expand on that? What exactly are you seeing? And how -- what's your outlook around the pet category?
Peter, yes, it's Seth. Thanks for the question. On pet performance in the categories, Hal mentioned in the prepared remarks to your point, we do believe that we're at the point of basically some of the trough where demand had slowed. And we're starting to see that we are going to have and believe we have some tailwinds as we kind of look ahead, albeit potentially at maybe a little bit slower rate than historically we have run but really are leaning into some of the key core capabilities and are continuing to take market share.
And I'd just -- I'd touch on a couple of other quick things quickly and where we're investing in pet. First, as Rob articulated of PetRx, we're pleased with how that's getting started. Our service offerings, we're seeing tremendous demand for in our in-store like vet service clinics that we have as well as our 1,000 pet washes. Over the course of this past month, all of our dog food, our cat food, several accessories in this week, our pet treat categories all gone through a major reset activity where we are introducing new brands, expanding brands that we're seeing traction in as well as introducing new products across like health, whether it be with Shreds or new product that we have out there.
And then finally, throughout the course of the first half of this year, when we went through our localization project, we created a newer format for what we were seeing, we were putting infusion and we have even retro gone back in what we were calling -- calling it the [ 5G+ ] format. And at this point, we have over 500 stores that we have gone and put this new format in. It has a couple of hundred incremental SKUs. We should have over 800 by the end of the year. And we're seeing very positive results coming out of that outpacing the balance of the chain. So a lot of work going into pet to make sure it's such an important category for us as well as just our customer ownership with animal ownership, and I believe we're going to continue to take share.
The following comes from Scot Ciccarelli with Truist.
I know you've been asked about this already with the last mile delivery, and I think Michael mentioned Amazon. But can you just provide maybe your broader latest thoughts around the competitive environment? Because it's not just Amazon, right? We've had Walmart expanding their delivery capabilities. You've had Lowe's expanding their rural assortment expansion. And obviously, these are much larger companies than some of your historical competitors.
Scot, thanks for joining the call. I appreciate the question. Stepping back, I'd say farm channel has always been a channel that people have had an eye towards and have looked to invest towards or rural America as well. I can think back, as you all know, I worked at a big-box home improvement store, and I can think back to 3 or 4 times that we tried to make an entrance into the farm and ranch channel during my tenure there. I think about in my tenure here at Tractor Supply, there's been more than a handful of companies that have announced entries into farm and ranch as well.
What I'd say is that we compete against thousands of locations and hundreds and hundreds of companies each and every single day. We've got a track record of being pretty successful in our market while doing that. Our focus is really always around just serving our customers in the best way we can. And that's really around our legendary service, having all the products they need in a very convenient format and making sure we leverage our scale to price it as the best value in the market that you can get out there.
And I think we are just such an integral element of rural retail. We don't take that for granted. We know that's a responsibility we have to embrace every single day, but I think it's a pretty good position to be in. And we're very confident in our ability to leverage that as we grow and put our initiatives on top of it moving forward. Thanks so much for the question.
Thank you. This concludes the Q&A session of the call. I'll now pass it back to Mary Winn for closing remarks.
Thank you, everyone, for joining our call. We'll look forward to talking to you at our Q3 call in October. We're around this afternoon and for any follow-up as needed. So thank you again for your time and attention today.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
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Tractor Supply — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Tractor Supply — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $4,44 Mrd. (+4,5% YoY) — bestes Quartal der Firmengeschichte.
- Comparable Sales: +1,5% (Comparable store sales = vergleichbare Filialumsätze).
- EPS: Verwässertes EPS $0,81 (+2,8% YoY); Nettogewinn $430 Mio (+1,1%).
- Bruttomarge: 36,9% (+31 Basispunkte) dank Wareneinsatz-Management.
- Inventar & Kapital: Warenbestand $3,1 Mrd.; Rückkäufe/Dividenden Q2: $196 Mio.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Final Mile: Rollout als strategischer Hebel; ~15% der Stores ab Mitte Jahr, Ziel ~25% bis Jahresende; zeigt hohe Bestellwerte (~$400 AOV) und niedrigere Retouren.
- Kundenbindung: Neighbor's Club 41 Mio Mitglieder (>80% des Umsatzes); Schwerpunkt auf C.U.E. (Consumable, Usable, Edible) und Events wie Chick Days.
- Flächen & Wachstum: +24 Tractor Supply Stores, +2 Petsense; Akquise von 18 Big Lots-Standorten und Ausbau der Fee‑Development-Strategie (≈15% Mietersparnis).
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Bestätigung: Guidance 2025 bestätigt: Umsatz +4–8%; Comparable sales flat to +4%; Operative Marge 9,5–9,9%; Nettoeinkommen $1,07–1,17 Mrd.; EPS $2,00–2,18.
- Risikotreiber: Tarife (Zölle) wirken voraussichtlich in H2 und belasten Margen moderat; Management behält Preisflexibilität (Besonderheit: Augenmerk auf 1. Aug. Deadline).
- Kapitalallokation: Rückkaufplanung reduziert auf $325–375 Mio (vs. vorher $525–600 Mio) wegen Inventar- und Tarif‑Kapitalbedarf.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Final Mile ROI: Nachfrage nach Break‑even; Management beschreibt mehrere Ertragshebel (Direktverkäufe, Großbestellungen, Ersatz Drittanbieter) gibt aber keine konkrete ROI‑Schwelle an.
- Inflation & Tarife: Analysten fordern Klarheit zu Preis‑Cadence und Elastizität; Company erwartet moderate, kategorienübergreifende Inflation in H2 und bleibt flexibel.
- Pet/Allivet: Frühe Akzeptanz von PetRx und Allivet; Management meldet starke Wochen‑zu‑Wochen‑Zuwächse, teilt jedoch noch keine detaillierten Penetrationszahlen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Solider Q2‑Turnaround: Umsatzrekord, bestätigte Guidance und sichtbare operative Investments (Final Mile, Allivet, Store‑Pipeline). Kurzfristig dämpfen Tarife und erhöhte Working‑Capital‑Bedarfe das Rückkaufvolumen; mittelfristig bieten Loyalty, Liefernetzwerk und Store‑Präsenz robuste Hebel für Wachstum und Margen.
Tractor Supply — Baird Global Consumer
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. I'm Peter Benedict, retail consumer products and services analyst at Baird. Really pleased to have the team from Tractor Supply with us.
Once again, I was talking with Mary Winn last night. I think this could be their 17th at least consecutive time at the Baird conference. So we love having you guys here. I appreciate you making it up. For those of you who don't know, Tractor Supply is a leading rural lifestyle retailer in the U.S., they've got more than 2,300 stores under the core Tractor Supply banner. They also have 200 or so Petsense locations. Their sales are expected to exceed $15 billion this year. Stock carries a market cap of just under $30 billion.
So to my far left, Hal Lawton, CEO since 2020. He joined from Macy's, but spent much of his career at Home Depot and eBay; Kurt Barton, CFO, is directly to my left; and as I mentioned, Mary Winn Pilkington is in the back there with some members of her team, and she heads up the IR and Public Relations effort.
I think we're going to turn it over to Hal for some opening remarks here, and then we'll get into the Q&A. So...
Thanks, Peter, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for your interest in Tractor Supply for being here today. As Peter said, 2,300 stores, about $15 billion in revenue. Over the last 5 years, we basically doubled our revenues. And the drivers of that have been our new store growth in combination with very strong comp store growth. On our comp store growth, it's been about half and half, half average ticket, half transactions. So very balanced in our growth, and I think that's a differentiator for us in retail in terms of performance, is the fact that over the last 5 years, we've had substantial comp transaction growth.
Over the last 18 months or so, we're proud that we haven't given back any of those sales. There was much discussion, as you can imagine, in the early 2020s about kind of giving back a number of those sales, and that's not been the case. Our comp has been below our long-term guidance over the last 18 months because of deflation in the business. In our last earnings call, we talked about as we look towards the back half of the year, we see that deflation turning to inflation, and that's ex-tariffs, which I'm sure we'll talk a little bit about, but that's just in terms of the normal base run rate of the business.
So we feel very good about returning to a more normalized growth rates as we turn into the back half of the year. More broadly, if we look towards the back half of the decade, we launched our new Life Out Here 2030 strategy in December of this past year. It builds on our existing set of initiatives, which are very proven and have a track record of performance, initiatives like our Fusion remodel program, our Garden Center build-out, our Neighbor's Club program.
And then we are adding to those set of initiatives, some new initiatives that enhance and expand our total addressable market and also our revenue upside. And that's a direct sales program, a pet and animal Rx prescription program and then combining that with our final mile initiative as well. So very excited about the future of Tractor Supply, and we've got as much growth ahead of us as we've achieved in our history of our company. And like I said, we've got a great track record of performance, but excited about the future equally.
Great. That's a great overview. I think your position as a needs-based retailer, but one that also sells some big ticket product makes you a little bit unique. And so maybe just talk about what you've seen with the consumer here. You said the last 18 months, you've had some deflation. You actually had a pretty good big ticket year last year. Maybe help folks understand like what is big ticket to Tractor Supply? How has the consumer been kind of spending on that and responding to that here of late?
Yes. So if I were to break our business into 3 buckets of categories just for the sake of discussion here. The first would be what we call C.U.E., consumable, usable and edible products. So that's around 40% to 45% of our business. Those are things like products like animal feed. So think a horse bag feed, think cow bag feed, livestock feed, poultry feed. These are our staples, much like the grocery store for our business. These drive transactions in our stores every single day. People have to feed their animals, people have to feed their dogs. We're also the fifth largest seller of dog food in the country.
On the feed side, we're the largest seller of bagged animal feed in the United States, somewhere between a 20% and 25% market share in the United States. So that is our staples. Those are our footsteps drivers. Those would drive customers into our business every single day. We then add to that kind of a mass type approach, mass merchandising approach where we surround those consumable products with all the accessories and utility items that our customers need to live their lifestyle. So that could be things like power tools and hardware. It also could be fencing for your property or it could be a Carhartt hoodie that you're wearing while you're out on your property, but all those sorts of other items we surround it with.
And then we cap it all off, as Peter said, with big-ticket product that our customers need to maintain their property. Those would be things like riding lawn mowers, things like trailers, gun safes. In the wintertime, it would be things like log splitters and snow throwers. And in general, I'd say what we're seeing on the consumer is really not much difference than there's been in the last 2 or 3 years. I think consumers continue to -- in their rhetoric and in their qualitative comments, talk about being cautious and even some modest kind of confidence, kind of variations we've seen over the last few months.
But I think in practice in terms of their spending, consumers are holding up very well. For us, we saw a slight bit of pullback in big ticket in March and April. Dominantly, our assertion was due to weather, but we were a little cautious just because of the environment at the time. But as the weather has come out and the sun has come out and spring has finally arrived, our seasonal products are selling very well. So when the sun is out, the business has been very good.
Yes. Great. So let's maybe take a step back and talk about just the addressable market. Back in December, you hosted an Investor Day. You raised your TAM to $225 billion. I want to focus first on just like the core market, the $195 billion. Maybe talk about the rural population trends, secular trends like sustainability, and just what the competition looks like, both the existing competition and then you always seem to have someone else kind of trying to come in and play in the rural market? So maybe give us a sense of what you're seeing on that front.
Yes. So as Peter said, a couple of hundred billion dollar market -- total addressable market that we participate in. Sometimes folks are always trying to think about how to assess us because we don't have a large-scale national head-to-head competitor. If you think about most sectors in retail, that's the case, right? You've got 2 in mass, 2 in home improvement. Historically, we had 2 in electronics and appliances and those sorts of things. But in farm and ranch, we're really the only large national player.
The way we think about our market is as follows. So if you call it just for sake of round numbers, $200 billion in total addressable market, about 40% of that is a historic farm and ranch channel, so call that $80-ish billion of the TAM. Those are 10,000 locations across the United States, little co-ops, mom-and-pops, some regional and local chains. But really, our largest next competitor has 150, 200 stores in size relative to our 2,300.
Then you take the other 60% of the TAM that we don't have. And it's really a litany of other competitors. So you have pet specialty that we compete against in the pet category. You obviously have all kinds of apparel retailers that we compete with on our apparel product. We compete with home improvement on garden and tools and hardware. So there's a variety of other competitors. Of course, mass, we compete with as well.
As Peter said, in terms of our total addressable market, it has been a growth market, and it's been a market that's grown faster than overall GDP. And one of the primary drivers of that has been rural migration. So in 2021 and 2022, there was a significant exodus as we all know, out of cities into rural America and we benefited from that. We continue to benefit from that rural migration now, albeit at not the same pace of '21 and '22.
But the millennial population continues to kind of age. And as they age into their early and mid-30s, they're embracing more historic generational norms, buying a house, getting married, having -- getting animals, those sorts of things. And when they do that, the only place to be able to buy an affordable home and to find one that's available for sale, as we know, to availability and affordability is really out in ex-urban and in rural America.
And so we really continue to benefit from that. If you look at new home sales and new home sales in particular, it's a much heavier percentage of that is from the millennial population, and you see it's really out where our stores are. So we really benefit from that. It's a nice it's a nice tailwind for our total addressable market.
Yes. And so like on the competition -- competitive front, I mean, we know Lowe's has been working on a rural initiative. Amazon has been talking more about it. Is this new to you guys? Or is this kind of business as usual, always have someone kind of trying to come in and disintermediate the business?
Yes. Kurt has been with the business 26 years. I've been with the business now 6 years. I think almost every time we've been on stage the last 6 years, someone has been making a comment about initiative in rural America. That's probably been the case for all 26 years of Kurt time.
I agree.
It's an attractive market, but it's also a very big market. And our focus is always just to compete in the market, earn our customers' spend and stay focused on our strategy. And there's been lots of folks that have kind of made entrees into our market. We just -- we keep staying focused and just putting up our -- the results we put up.
Yes. No, absolutely. And if anyone in the audience has a question, you want to get involved, [email protected], and I'll do my best to get you involved here. Tariffs, let's just jump on it right away here. Perspective playbook, how are you dealing with it?
Yes. First off, I'll start with tariffs are not an existential crisis for Tractor Supply. Over 60% of our business is manufactured or produced in the United States. If you think about some of the categories that I've mentioned already, things like animal feed, pet food, those sorts of products, those are manufactured in the United States, produced in the United States. Less than, as I said, 40% of our business is produced outside of the United States. A little less than half of that is China and then a little more than half of that is rest of world.
For us, in terms of how to navigate it, we really are just dusting off our 2018, 2019 playbooks. We've gone out. We diversify our sourcing. We negotiate with our existing manufacturers. We're looking for efficiencies in the process. Certainly, we will adjust assortments as necessary as well. We will look at cost, first and foremost, look to create and maintain value in the market. And of course, always price is a lever of resort as well, if necessary.
But we updated our guidance at the end of Q1, really broadened our range a bit just to allow for more scenarios of how the back half of the year might play out. But again, for us, this is not an existential crisis, one we're very comfortable that we can navigate and are doing so right now.
Got it. And one more for you, Hal, and then I'll throw one over to Kurt. Just around pricing. So you alluded earlier in your opening remarks, half of Tractor Supply's growth over the last 5 years has been ticket, half has been transactions. Part of your business is commodity. And so how do you see pricing today on the commodity front and then on the tariff impacted front? And how does that kind of play out over the balance of the year as best as you can see?
Yes. So if I were to break our business into 2 fronts, the commodity and then the non-commodity, as you just did, Peter. On the commodity side, for the last 18 months or so, we've been operating in a deflationary environment. It's a little counter to what we've all seen in the national headlines where we -- as a country, we've been facing a significant amount of inflation. But if you look at that data sets, obviously, it's been services inflation that's been driving inflation, whereas goods have really been flat to flat or so over the last 18 months. And that's really been the case with us.
Things like animal feed, as I mentioned, we have a 20% to 25% market share across those categories are very heavily corn dependent. Back in '22, corn was up as high as almost [ 600 ], now down in the [ $4.50 ] range. And so we've been kind of trading down through that over the last 18 months. Corn has now been level really for the last 12 months or so. And we're starting to cycle on top of that where we'll see positive average unit retail and feed pricing in the second half of the year.
The other big player for us on commodity pricing is dog food. And I think the slowdown in dog in 2024 was well documented. We made a comment in our last earnings call that we thought we were past the trough of that. And starting to see unit growth again in the category as well as average unit retail growth again in the category as we look towards the back half of the year. And so both of those businesses, which are, as I said earlier, 40% to 45% of our total business, we're starting to see positive inflation in those businesses in the second half. And that's inflation before we get into any impact tariffs could have.
Yes. Got it. No, that's great. And to the extent that you've seen in the marketplace any movement in price based on tariffs, I know a lot of that's kind of on the come is what we're hearing as we get back-to-school in the back half of the year. But to the extent that you've seen any movement in pricing, any elasticities that you would call out that you've seen?
There's been some very subtle movements in pricing in the market right now, mostly in map-based products. So these are branded products where the manufacturers have pricing guidelines out in the market. We've seen some modest step-up in pricing in those categories. These are categories that either -- most of them are heavy steel and aluminum product, and that's when those tariffs, as we know, started earlier in March. And so you're starting to see some of that already make its way through. But there's really been -- we've not observed any sort of elasticity or unit reductions as those price step-ups have occurred. And then you said -- as you said, the balance of potential pricing that may occur in the market is really more of a second half thing with the seasonal programs that will all be brought in.
Yes. Fair enough. Kurt, let's get you involved here. So the financial algorithm that you guys have laid out, 6% to 8% revenue growth, maybe break that down comps versus new stores and how you kind of see that evolving? And hopefully, we get back into that at some point here over the next year or 2?
Yes, sure. We unveiled our Life Out Here 2030 strategic plan back in December, which is where we laid out the changes to our long-term targets. Even before a lot of the changes with tariffs this year, we said 2025 likely to be a transition year. I think the activities on a macro over the last couple of months have only just confirmed that 2025 is a bit of a transition year. But that said, we are still very convicted and as we were then on our ability to get to the long-term algorithm.
And that basically breaks down as this, as you said, we see a 6% to 8% net total sales growth. And that breaks down to, one, one of the things that's been a consistent driver for Tractor Supply is new stores. We said we still see an opportunity now as high as 3,200 domestic locations. We're at 2,300 today, roughly a decade worth of just known specific markets for a Tractor Supply store. We'll be growing 90 stores this year and a target to move to approximately 100 stores a year going forward.
So that 6% to 8% includes roughly 2.5%, 2.5-plus sales growth -- percentage point sales growth just out of our new stores. And those new stores do contribute to comp as they have around a 5-year maturation process. But then it's really the 3% to 5% comp sales growth. And Hal talked about the strategic initiatives, and we've got both existing strategic initiatives that are still ongoing that were in that cycle of development, but then these new ones that we're beginning to invest in. We believe those are really going to be key to driving the 3% to 5%.
That said, under normal just routine macro where the rural economy and our lifestyle consumer base grows faster generally than the macro, some modest level of inflation. From a macro standpoint, 1% or 2% growth just out of that, we typically hold ourselves to in our comp sales. But the remaining 2% or 3% coming from these strategic initiatives. And we have great results from our Fusion remodels. We're only halfway through the chain at this point, less than halfway through on live goods and Garden Centers. And our digital business continues to outperform. And then the excitement that we have on being able to capture some of this new TAM in PetRx and direct sales.
So we feel really strong and like I said, convicted that we can get to that long-term algorithm. And that gives us an opportunity we see to be able to continue to modestly grow our operating margin, where we've said we see us in the 10% to 10.5% range. And you put all that together, you got earnings per share growth of high single digits to 10%, 11%, total shareholder returns in the 10% to 12% range. We still see great opportunities for growth and continue to see opportunities for us to give a good return to our shareholders with so much growth potential on the horizon.
Yes. No, that's great. And that's a good segue into -- I want to dive into these next-gen initiatives. I think we talked a lot in the past about Fusion and Garden Center and loyalty. And so I'm not going to go into those too much here. But the next-gen initiatives, I think let's start with direct sales. Really interesting opportunity for you guys. You started talking about it a little bit last year, a couple of more meat on the bone here of late. Talk about the direct sales opportunity, why that's important?
Yes. Start out with maybe a foundational understanding of core Tractor Supply customers. So our core Tractor Supply customer is a hobby farmer. They have 5 acres of land. They'll have somewhere between 5 and 10 animals on their property, maybe a couple of dogs. Over half of our customers have more than 2 dogs, 10% of our customers have horses, 1 in 5 of our customers raises chickens. So you can imagine it's that 5-acre hobby farmer, 5 to 10 animals that is our core customer.
When a customer gets larger than that, they kind of graduate themselves out of Tractor Supply. We become a convenience location for them, but they have -- time becomes more of a valuable commodity. And so that's where a more custom sales process and also delivery to their property becomes more important. So these sorts of customers are customers that have 20 acres, 50 acres, 100 acres of property. They're breeding animals on their property or they're having -- they have a kennel or perhaps they have an equine facility or perhaps they have a horse staples.
Instead of maybe $1,000 to $3,000 of spend on a weekly basis, they're spending $10,000, $20,000, $30,000 on a weekly basis. And these are -- what we've done is we have the right infrastructure set up to serve these customers in terms of our supply chain. No one buys better than us in the marketplace. We have the lowest pricing in the marketplace. It's really about enabling that customized sale and that final mile to be able to deliver to this $10 billion-plus TAM that we've not previously addressed.
And so what we've been rolling out over the last 6 months is a direct sales organization. Over the next 5 years, that will reach somewhere between 600, 700, 800 field sales reps that are out in the market calling on these larger customers. And then as I said, we'll leverage our existing supply chain, whether that's our 19 mixing centers that we have, whether that's our 11 distribution centers that we have or whether that's the direct-to-sale -- direct to property capabilities that we have with our vendors to serve these larger customers. And we think this could be $1 billion of additional sales for Tractor Supply by 2030 with this initiative.
And I was just out in a market last week doing some ride-alongs and customer deliveries and it was great to see the business coming to life. There was -- we had one big flatbed truck that we had 2 pallets of horse feed on, a bunch of additional salt blocks and other types of minerals for the horses. And then they had probably 40 or 50 horse panels and plus about 500 T-post, all on one big truck going to a customer's property, $30,000, $40,000 order right there just for a week's time with that customer.
No, that's a super interesting opportunity for you guys. Let's go to final mile, which is somewhat related, but you're looking -- you're talking about in-sourcing your home delivery operations. And we've seen companies across our coverage do the same thing and generally with great success, customer service scores go up and the like. Talk about maybe how much of your order volume is, I guess, delivered by you today, where you're taking that? What are the aspirations there?
Yes. So we sell lots of big heavy stuff. And as a consequence, it's difficult for our customers many times to get those products home. And so this -- our final-mile delivery initiative is a big unlock for us. And really, there's 3 ways it unlocks the business. The first is on our field sales team that we talked about, going out calling on these large customers and having the delivery capability behind it. The second is online. Right now, a large percentage of our online orders are delivered by a third party to a customer's home, say, like a company like XPO. They -- those typically are lower satisfaction deliveries and also likely have a lot of customer sat gives with them as well. When we bring that in-house, we're able to support that business much better, get a much higher customer satisfaction and also reduce a lot of those customer sat dollars that we have to spend.
And the third thing is in-stores. When customers come in to buy products in our stores, a lot of times, as I said, they don't have the means to get at home. You think about a 400-pound gun safe, if you think about a large 100-gallon stock tank or you think about fence panels, whatever the case may be, it could be 5 bags of horse feed on a pallet or something like that. And so now we have the delivery capability in our stores to be able to get that back to a customer's home.
So we're in the process of rolling this out. We have about 250, 300 of our stores already with the delivery capability. So we're over 10% of our store base that we've already turned this on this year. And the plan over the next 2 to 3 years is to activate this across the vast majority of our store base. So by the end of 2028, as we head in towards the back half of the decade, all of our stores are lit up with this delivery capability and being able to enable all 3 of those key pieces of revenue streams.
You mentioned PetRx kind of pharmacy earlier. You made an acquisition of Allivet. There's a number of players in this space. Why does Tractor Supply have a right to win in this space? What's your strategy?
Yes. So first off, on pet, we're the fifth largest player in pet in the United States. And that's moving from a position of really doing $0 in the category 15, 20 years ago. So it's been quite a growth engine for us, Pet has. Over the last 5, 6, 7 years, as we've grown that business, we've started to surround it with a variety of services that our customers need. So as an example, 1,200 of our stores now have a pet wash in their store. We're doing over 40 pet washes a week per store, just to give you a sense of the foot traffic and our customers' use of a key service and key feature.
We also offer PetVet clinics in our stores. And we have mobile clinics that go around to all of our stores once a week, twice a week for 4 hours or 8 hours at a time and allow our customers to get low-cost vaccinations and other low-cost vet services, chips and those sorts of things in their animals. We also have historically offered Rx. We've done that -- and we did that through a third party called Allivet. At the beginning of this year, we purchased Allivet. It was just over $100 million transaction. It does a little over $100 million in revenue. It's a profitable business.
And for us, the big unlock is to take all the capabilities and the infrastructure that Allivet has around pet and animal Rx and combine that with our 40 million-plus Neighbor's Club members, 80% of which have a dog 50% of which have more than 2 dogs and kind of integrate those together and drive an affordable Rx solution for our customers. And so we're 4 months into the acquisition now, 5 months in. It's off to an excellent start. We've already launched Rx on tractorsupply.com in a full custom way, leveraging all the APIs off of Allivet.
A little bit of background on Allivet. So they have licensed -- they're licensed in all 50 states in the United States to sell pet and animal Rx. They've got 3 distribution centers in the United States, 1 in Ohio, 1 in Florida, 1 in Las Vegas. They will -- 90% of the time, your vet your Rx is confirmed same day, 95% of the time, the Rx is delivered to the customer within 2 days after confirmation. So it's a well-oiled machine. They do an excellent job of operating and they make money. And we're excited to incorporate them in the business and just bring a great new feature to our customers. And also, we've said that this can be -- has the potential to be a $1 billion business by 2030 as well.
Incredible. So we're coming up on time, but it wouldn't be a retail fireside if we didn't bring up retail media. Everyone's doing it, what's Tractor Supply's approach to retail media?
So we do over $1 billion in sales on our website. So we have a -- and in our digital properties more broadly. So we have a nice, large, robust website. In fact, our digital business is larger than any of our farm and ranch competitors' total sales with the exception of one, just to give you a sense of our scale and size that we have in the industry. And beginning of this year, we started to really ramp up our retail media efforts. And we now have a full suite of offerings, including on-site product listing ads, on-site banner targeting ads as well as off-site third-party media where we plus up the intelligence around it and are able to provide that to our vendors.
We've seen great adoption of the retail media. We talked about on our Q1 earnings call that we did more in Q1 in retail media sales in all of 2024, but we expect that with the hyperbolic ramp-up in this capability. But it's a service that a lot of our more CPG-like vendors are really embracing quickly, say, in pet and in tools and hardware. And then, of course, we're educating some of our vendors who are a little less adept in this category -- in this area of marketing. But it's been a -- we're off to a great start there and really pleased with our progress.
Terrific. Hal, Kurt, thanks so much for coming.
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Tractor Supply — Baird Global Consumer
Tractor Supply — Baird Global Consumer
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Tractor Supply nutzte das Baird-Event, um die Strategie "Life Out Here 2030" zu unterlegen: Ausbau des Kerngeschäfts plus neue Wachstumsfelder (Direct Sales, PetRx, Final‑Mile, Retail Media). Management bestätigt Langfrist‑Algorithmus (6–8% Umsatzwachstum) und sieht 2025 als Übergangsjahr.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Store‑Wachstum: Ziel ~90 Neueröffnungen 2025, langfristig ~100 p.a.; adressierbares Filialpotenzial bis ~3.200 Standorte.
- Direktvertrieb: Feldvertrieb mit 600–800 Reps geplant; Ziel ~$1 Mrd. Zusatzumsatz bis 2030 durch Großkunden‑Orders und personalisierte Lieferung.
- PetRx & Allivet: Übernahme von Allivet (~$100 Mio); ländesweite Lizenzierung und schnelle Lieferung sollen Pet‑Rx ebenfalls auf ~$1 Mrd. bis 2030 skalieren.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Konkrete Ergänzungen: Direktverkauf und Final‑Mile sind jetzt deutlich operationalisiert (250–300 Stores bereits mit Lieferung); Q1‑Guidance wurde zur Absicherung der Second‑Half‑Szenarien verbreitert; Retail Media rampt deutlich (Q1 > gesamtes 2024‑Volumen).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Tarife & Preiswirkung: Wie wirken mögliche Zölle auf Sortiment/Preise? Management sieht kein existentiales Risiko, diversifiziert Sourcing, beobachtet erste Preisschritte bei MAP‑Produkten.
- Big‑Ticket‑Nachfrage: Analysten fragten nach Saisonalität und Wetter‑Effekten; Management meldet kurzfristige Pullbacks (März/April) aber Erholung mit Frühling.
- Wettbewerb & TAM: Nachfrage nach Einschätzung zur Konkurrenz (Lowe's, Amazon) und Struktur des TAM; Antwort: großer, fragmentierter Markt mit anhaltenden ländlichen Tailwinds.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Call bestätigt, dass Tractor Supply das organische Wachstum mit gezielten Produkt‑ und Serviceinvestitionen (Direct Sales, PetRx, Final‑Mile, Retail Media) erweitern will. Kurzfristig bleibt 2025 ein Übergangsjahr mit Unsicherheiten (Tarife, Saisonalität); mittelfristig liefern die Initiativen substanzielle Upside für Umsatz und Kundenbindung.
Finanzdaten von Tractor Supply
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 15.649 15.649 |
5 %
5 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 9.949 9.949 |
4 %
4 %
64 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 5.700 5.700 |
5 %
5 %
36 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 3.748 3.748 |
7 %
7 %
24 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 1.952 1.952 |
2 %
2 %
12 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 501 501 |
8 %
8 %
3 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 1.452 1.452 |
0 %
0 %
9 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 1.081 1.081 |
0 %
0 %
7 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
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Firmenprofil
Tractor Supply Co. beschäftigt sich mit dem Einzelhandelsverkauf von Farm- und Ranchprodukten. Sie betreibt Einzelhandelsgeschäfte für landwirtschaftliche & Ranchprodukte und konzentriert sich auf die Versorgung der Lifestyle-Bedürfnisse von Landwirten und Viehzüchtern in der Freizeit sowie von Händlern und Kleinunternehmen. Die Firma betreibt die Einzelhandelsgeschäfte unter diesen Namen: Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply und Petsense. Zu seinen Produktkategorien gehören Pferde, Vieh, Haus- und Kleintiere, Eisenwaren, Lastwagen, Zugmaschinen und Werkzeuge, Heizungs-, Rasen- und Gartenartikel, Elektrogeräte, Geschenke und Spielzeug, Freizeitbekleidung und -schuhe sowie Pflegeprodukte für den landwirtschaftlichen und ländlichen Gebrauch. Das Unternehmen wurde 1938 von Charles E. Schmidt sen. gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Brentwood, TN.
aktien.guide Premium
| Hauptsitz | USA |
| CEO | Mr. Lawton |
| Mitarbeiter | 39.000 |
| Gegründet | 1938 |
| Webseite | www.tractorsupply.com |


