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Kennzahlen
📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 197,70 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 90,53 Mrd. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 197,70 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 96,59 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 285,90 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 90,53 Mrd. $
Enterprise Value = 285,90 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 96,59 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
T-Mobile US Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
37 Analysten haben eine T-Mobile US Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
37 Analysten haben eine T-Mobile US Prognose abgegeben:
Beta T-Mobile US Events
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aktien.guide Basis
T-Mobile US — 2026 Evercore Global TMT Conference
1. Question Answer
Hi, everybody. All right. My name is Kutgun Maral. I'm the media, cable and telecom analyst at Evercore ISI, and we're very pleased to have with us at our conference, Peter Osvaldik, the CFO of T-Mobile. Peter, thanks so much for being here today.
Thanks for having us again.
Absolutely. And I think you have some pointing to do.
Absolutely, yes. There was a disclaimer slide. It looks like it disappeared, but there's the legalese, I'll make forward-looking statements, non-GAAP metrics. Please look at our filings for all the risk factors and recons for those.
All right. Perfect. So let's start big picture. I think since the February update, T-Mobile has raised guidance on accounts, EBITDA and free cash flow, and the first quarter results really reinforce the accounts and ARPA framework. From the CFO seat, what are the changes that -- what have been the changes that have given you the most confidence since February to increase that outlook? Is it the demand environment, quality of net adds, monetization, free cash flow conversion or anything else that you call out?
Yes. I mean, fundamentally, obviously, since February, there haven't been any big shifts in the strategy or the operational environment. So it really is just doubling down and executing against that strategy that we laid out, which most simplistically put is the best network, best value and best customer experience strategy. And that's really what amounts to having industry-leading NPS and being able to have a very consistent profitable model that delivers. And really, that's what you saw in Q1. It was really execution against that, that allowed us to put up not only just industry-leading, but really multiples of the industry results, whether that's in postpaid account net additions that were 217,000, whether that was service revenue of 11% growth, core EBITDA of 12% growth or what I always look at, very, very important to me, certainly from a long run perspective is how do you translate that growth into free cash flow margin. And we delivered 24% conversion of service revenue to free cash flow after investing sufficiently in the business. That's important. You can always cut your free cash flow in the short run, but that will hurt you in the long run. So after you've invested to keep the value creation alive, we have 24% free cash flow margin. That was in Q1. If you look across what was the demand environment, we saw strong demand across everywhere, whether it's our top 100 markets when that's cohort 1, 2 and 3, as we kind of sub-segregate the top 100 markets, smaller markets and rural areas, broadband continues to be an absolute area of strength for us, and we grew our 5G broadband product faster in Q1 than we did even a year ago. And our total broadband net additions were over 500,000 for the quarter. And I say that, but of course, we all know volume isn't just volume for the sake of volume. You actually have to convert it into quality. And so when you saw what was going on in Q1 certainly, some of our competitors were going out there with pretty aggressive device-centric promotions. And we chose to not match a lot of those. And when you have a proposition that focuses on value beyond just the device that you upgrade or buy new once every few years, even longer these days, you can actually come up with very effective promotions that don't have to go so deep into the device-centric offers because customers get a lot more value, whether that's the network side or value elements or the experience, again, all manifested in NPS. And what we actually saw is we chose not to match those offers because we saw those as CLV not attractive for us. But what we saw was not only the delivery of the volumes that we had in Q1, but also really encouraging signs like port-in APRAs that were 20% higher than port-out ARPAs in the quarter. And that tells you about the quality of the customers that we're taking in. And we can get into more of that a little bit later. But all of those signs point to the model and the strategy that we laid out, which is, again, the best network, the best value, the best experience coupled with underpenetrated market segments and new opportunities continues to be something that we're very excited about, certainly for the balance of this year, but actually over the long term as well.
That's great. And you talked about this a few times, but let's maybe zero in on the customer lifetime value a little bit because to your point, promos come in and out, and I think from the outside, it's a little hard to figure out how much of any operator's performance is really coming from aggressive promotional activity versus something that's a little bit more tangible and durable as you look out over the next few years. So you gave a few examples. But how do we think about the CLV that you're getting from your new customers? And what are the kind of internal proof points that give you confidence that you're headed in the right direction as opposed to just others maybe [ hitting ] a quarter?
Yes. I think it's important. If I back up a little bit is when I see the most astute investors in this really look at it the same way we do, which is it's not about just one KPI, for example, postpaid phone lines was always the hyper focused on KPI. But it's also what's your ability to translate unit growth on one KPI into actual value creation that matters for investors in the long term. So can you take that unit growth and translate it into service revenue growth? Are you running the company efficiently enough where that service revenue growth then actually accretes down to core EBITDA growth? And of course, are you investing sufficiently? This is -- these are CapEx-heavy industries? Are you investing sufficiently and yet still able to convert that service revenue into free cash flow. And that's where, again, we have fundamentally multiples of what the other competitors in this industry have because we're structurally advantaged and we'll have that for a very long time into the future. So it's -- those are the external things that I would look at as an investor because it's hard to get a sense of, well, what were CLVs of customers. I can tell you, again, internally, what we're looking at, of course, is what are unit economics looking like? What are things like I just mentioned, port-in APRAs looking like, 20% higher port-in ARPAs than port-out ARPAs. From a CLV perspective, in Q1, what we actually saw, again, and this is fundamentally, as you have the best product, the network and more and more consumers are hearing about it, believing it, Q1 happened to be of recent switchers to T-Mobile, the highest-ever percentage of those cited network quality is the reason for switching. So that flywheel of network perception that has a long, long runway ahead of us is starting. But you also have the best value, what you get for what you pay. Certainly, the network is a big part of that, but all the other day-to-day benefits that you get as a T-Mobile subscriber. So those are the things that bring in high-quality subscribers, high CLV subscribers, again, we talked about we'd have to match deep -- what I see as CLV negative device offers because we have all of these other tangible things that are bringing customers in. And we actually saw CLVs in Q1, up double digits year-over-year. And that's actually continued into Q2. So that's the focus that we have. It's not just the volume but value creation for investors. And again, you see that manifest itself in that differentiated service revenue, core EBITDA, free cash flow, those are the things to really focus on.
Yes. And I think you're helping shape the way that investors look at the story by having switched disclosure around a little bit and I think off towards better understanding around the ultimate economics of the business. I think folks are still settling into some of the new account and ARPA disclosure framework. So what do you think that the Street is maybe still getting wrong in some of these as we look into the new disclosure. In particular, how should we interpret account churn when newer accounts, broadband-only accounts and acquired accounts all carry different churn profiles?
Yes. I mean I think what some individuals are still maybe not seeing holistically is just pan out from the hyper focus on one KPI and so much more focus on are you translating that into tangible value accretion, right? Service revenue, EBITDA, free cash flow, the things that we talked about. I think that's the most -- and fundamentally, the most important thing to look at as to, is this the right investment? And how is every company differentially able to create that value. When you look at just account churn, in particular, I know everybody has been used to postpaid phone churn for the longest time, and we did disclose that in Q1. That was only up 3 bps year-over-year as we saw more of a normalization from depressed periods in the past. Account churn is structurally always going to be higher than postpaid phone churn. It's really just a math equation for us. And there's a few underlying reasons for it. One of those being as accounts come on board and tenure, they -- not only tenured accounts have lower churn, but tenured accounts, particularly with MPS being where it is, also tend to grow in size. Certainly, other products beyond phone but also grow phone lines on a per account basis. So what you see happening there is as an account is tenured and churns less, well, they have more postpaid phone lines in that account than a new account that's churning higher. So that's a difference that you see between postpaid phone churn and account churn.
The other thing is the success that we've had with our -- not only our 5G broadband offering, but bringing on Lumos and Metronet customers on board. Broadband obviously has a structurally higher churn profile in the U.S. than mobile. And so that's a math equation of the success of 5G broadband, means you're going to have higher account churn than postpaid phone churn. But it came in exactly as we expected, as we anticipated, it's a trend I expect to continue for the balance of the year, certainly. That doesn't mean that every day, we don't wake up and say, well, how do we get account churn even lower, both short tenure account as well as longer tenure accounts. But I wouldn't read anything more into it than structural math reasons.
Yes. Perfect. And maybe switching gears a little bit to postpaid ARPA. Growth in Q1 was well ahead of expectations. You pointed to a roughly 2% growth in Q2 before reaccelerating in the back half and landing at 2.5% to 3% for the full year. What gives you confidence that the second half acceleration reflects underlying drivers like premium mix, more products per account, the success you're seeing with business, broadband attachment, for example, rather than just some of the easier comps that you have.
Yes, it's -- there's a lot of quarter-over-quarter noise. And again, kind of a function of math and that makes the quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year comparative is a little bit difficult. And that's why it's important to pan out to that 2.5% to 3%. Couple of the reasons why the quarters are a little bit different from a year-over-year perspective are, one, in early Q2 of 2025, we did our last round of rate plan optimization. And so Q1 of this year was the last meaningful kind of year-over-year benefit from that. The other thing that you saw is very highly accretive decisions like acquiring UScellular. That came with mathematically lower ARPA as did the Metronet and Lumos acquisitions of customers as you bring them on and then you can expand that relationship over time. And so until we lap those things in Q3, you're going to see comparatives that are a little bit odd. And that's why the 2% for Q2 fundamentally is the right number when you look at the oddities of the math. But then you need to step out and say, well, okay, what's driving the 2.5% to 3% full year growth? And those are the things that we're most excited about. And some of those are, again, structural advantages that we have. First being our front book to back book advantage. And you know the story. I mean, partly the beauty of having grown up as the value leader, being seen as a far distant third or fourth in terms of network is you had value seekers come to you. People that generally chose you for price. And that means that we have a structurally lower back book than the competitors do. Now that you've arrived at the station where you have the best network and are attracting network seekers that tend to be higher CLV, higher ARPA customers, well, they're coming on board. And so every ARPA account that's coming on board is actually structurally accretive to you because of this back book, front book dynamic that we have. And you see because those network seekers are coming to us, you have really high loading on our premium plans of lines on new accounts that came in Q1, 60% of those continue to be on premium plans, which is about double the base. So that continues that flywheel of new accounts coming on board, increase ARPA.
The second, of course, is if you have an NPS that's completely differentiated and your customers trust you, then you can grow that relationship over time, whether that's postpaid phone lines that are added, whether that's 5G broadband, other connected devices that allows you to grow ARPA over time. And those are things that we continue to see happening as well.
And then third, and probably the least on our waterfall is, we're going to continue to be thoughtful around rate plan optimizations. And under a more-for-more construct, where can we see legacy rate plans potentially moving up from a pricing perspective. And so that's how we think about those 3 items, and they're all -- the first one is certainly very unique to us, having that back book, front book structural advantage, and that's how you get the 2.5% to 3% growth year. So we're very excited about that.
Yes. That's fantastic. And maybe just 1 more on the postpaid side for now. When you think about the next few years of account growth, can you maybe rank the major opportunities between network seekers, small markets in rural areas, T-Mobile for Business, UScellular, broadband, maybe not just by headline TAM, but where you're seeing incremental sales and marketing dollars generating the best returns?
Yes. This is one of the most exciting parts I think about the company is the fact that just like we laid out in February, it's across all of these categories. UScellular is now, we consider it an integrated part of which segment it's in. But there's fundamentally a few things we're looking at that drive growth. One of those being network seekers that we talked about. Now that you're at the point where you have the best network and more and more people out there, not just our customers, but prospect future customers, as we call them, believe that we have the best network, you start getting a flywheel of that's 20-plus million accounts out there that historically chose either AT&T or Verizon because they believe they have the best network. And at the time, they did, we didn't. But we're in a totally different place. We're years ahead. We have all the basically components to continue to be years ahead of that. And so continuing to take network seekers as high CLV, high ARPA customers is a very exciting area for us to grow. And that's across smaller markets, rural areas, our top 100 accounts or markets across the board, smaller markets and rural areas. Now with the acquisition of UScellular, we've hit about 24% share, but there's a long runway there. And what's really interesting, both network seekers and smaller markets and rural areas, if you have 5%, 10% share, it's really actually inefficient to get that flywheel going because you don't have a word of mouth. And the vast majority of customers, when they consider this category and switch are still talking to friends and family as to what works for you where I live, work and play. And when you achieve 20%, plus 20%, now you've got a flywheel of word of mouth, particularly when you have an NPS score that's way above the competitive set, and you have that best network perception catching up and starting to move forward. So it makes it even more efficient. You've got 5G broadband, which is an exciting opportunity. We just upped our subscriber target to 15 million subscribers by 2030. You'll obviously have fiber on top of that. You have T-Mobile for Business, which is just a great opportunity to continue to grow. And it's a great kind of indicator of where the network is because large enterprise, government customers, they test the network. They also want to see more than just pure connectivity of their phones from a network perspective. What they want to see is, are you bringing novel solutions to me that can actually help solve business challenges? And if you do that, then I'll sell you the postpaid phone business too. That's no problem. But I don't want just the postpaid phones switcher [indiscernible]. I mean if I'm a CIO at a large enterprise, why would I do that? What I want you is to solve my problems. And because of where our network technology is, we're able to offer completely unique solutions there. And so that allows a lot of account growth into the future because you win the hearts and minds of CIOs and large enterprises, large government entities because you're solving problems, whether that's automated balls and strikes or what we just did with the PGA Tour. There are so many examples of unique solutions, F1, that we're able to provide to customers to solve real pain points. And then we get the connectivity business with the phone as well. And then beyond that, of course, we're going to look at, to a lesser degree, from a pure account perspective, but how do you grow into smart adjacencies, like financial services, physical AI is a great opportunity for us in the future. That's not even in the plan from a revenue and EBITDA perspective. But those are all the areas we look at. And what's beautiful is we don't have legacy declining businesses that we need to shield. So every area that we're investing in is an area of growth and strength for us, which is, again, one of those unique structural advantages that we have. So we see growth across the board.
And the good thing for my seat is it's not -- these are not plans that you have on a board deck. You've got the success you've already demonstrated in some of these top 100 markets, like whenever I hear the market share for Manhattan, I think it is -- boggles my mind. And when you think about small markets and rural areas, there's no reason why you shouldn't have, at a minimum, your fair share from a market share [ perspective ].
Yes. I mean you mentioned New York where we have over 50% market share and growing, because now we're attracting those network seekers on top of the value seekers that have come to us. And you're right, when you have that formula, the question is, well, why can't you get there? Now that's not our plan. That's not what underpins the guidance that we gave you out there, but it certainly is a long run opportunity for us.
Yes. So we talk about postpaid accounts and ARPA, maybe in the interest of completeness, maybe you could talk a little bit about prepaid and the wholesale markets as well and what you're seeing over there?
Yes. I mean we think of our postpaid and prepaid brands, and I'll get to wholesale in a second. But we think about prepaid and postpaid as very complementary products. We have leading brands in both of those categories. And for the longest time, we've always been able to engage with prepaid customers. And some portion of those customers have always moved into the postpaid brand over time as they saw the value attributes or wanted more of the things that postpaid offers, including more device-centric ability to finance things like that. I think when you pan out, what you're seeing at an industry level is more prepaid customers are choosing to interact with postpaid brands directly than they have in the past. And I think probably they see the value and they're moving there. And so that's why, for us, we step back and say, well, what's happening with postpaid and prepaid service revenue together. And when you see that, I mean, we delivered total service revenue of 11% growth. Postpaid was 15% growth in Q1 on a year-over-year basis. And I expect Q2 from a prepaid perspective, we'll probably see the same dynamic we saw Q4 to Q1 play out in Q1 to Q2. And that's because we're seeing these great CLV accretive moves into postpaid and the postpaid brand. And so that's something we'll definitely continue. And I think it will be an industry trend for a while.
On wholesale, it's playing out exactly as we foreshadowed. And that's fundamentally TracFone and DISH as MVNO partners moving off and then other growth continuing beyond that. So Q2, again, I expect we'll see the same sequential change in terms of absolute dollars in service revenue there as we saw in Q1 to Q4. And then 2026 is the year where it flattens out to slightly starts growing as TracFone and DISH have fully rolled off by then.
Perfect. Okay. I have a few questions for you on the broadband side. So maybe fixed wireless. Over there, you've been very clear that this is a fallow capacity monetization story, not a capacity give away. I think we still get the question of, as usage keeps rising and incremental spectrum supply comes into the market, what are the leading indicators that tell you that fixed wireless can keep scaling without crowding out your mobile economics?
Well, as you know, we apply a very unique model to it, the fallow-capacity model, as you call it, where we project forward in about 36 million hexbins. We disaggregate the country in the 36 million hexbins. And for each of those hexbins, we look at what is the capacity that's going to be created by the network there? How much of that is going to get utilized by mobile phone traffic, both because we have new subscribers coming on, but also mobile phone usage growth. And then where we have excess capacity using that model is where we approved the sale of fixed wireless. And then we further cap it, by the way, for market share, make sure we're basically assuming conservative rational market share percentages. And that's how you get to be allowed to sell fixed wireless in a hexbin. And so what you should look at externally is, well, what are speeds doing? That's the great proxy for capacity. You've seen what the 5G business -- 5G broadband business is done in terms of customer growth, let's say, over the last 2 years, significant growth in customers, yet you've seen speeds on the network increase by 50%. Of course, usage per customer has gone up by about 30%, a little over 600 gigabytes a month, which is exactly what we planned, but speeds have increased by 50%. Coincidentally, they're also faster than -- 50% faster than the next nearest fixed wireless competitor. Now the average download speed we're seeing over WiFi is about 250 megabits a second. But what's really fun is on our latest gen routers because this is a technology, both from a network perspective and a router perspective, that is rapidly evolving. Our latest gen routers are putting 400 megabits a second down over WiFi, which is effectively fiber lived experience over WiFi. This is why it has the highest NPS as a category over all others, including fiber. When you add in the ease of installation, the experience, the value, it's just fundamentally such an exciting business to be in. So look at speeds, look at customer growth and look at continued -- this business, giving us a lot of tailwind.
Yes. It doesn't seem to be decelerating at the moment. You've talked about fiber. And let's talk a little bit about fiber. Even -- I want to get away from the debate that is, at least for now on whether or not convergence is real or is it a myth, we'll get to that in a second. But maybe a more relevant question for T-Mobile is the return on capital that you're seeing with fiber. So maybe you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing on a penetration perspective, customer quality and operating cost that supports the double-digit IRRs in these JV structures that are somewhat unique to you?
Yes. Well, of course, it's early days. We're about a year into some of these. We're seeing, what I would consider very encouraging results, basically playing out the thesis, which was when you combine the expertise of the fiber players and the partners that we have in terms of actually building and laying fiber, coupled with the brand, the distribution, the customer relationships that T-Mobile brings that we'll be able to actually get penetration better and faster over time. And what we're seeing in the early cohorts, again, it's very early, is 1-year 20% penetration rate, which is pretty encouraging for greenfield fiber builds and you're seeing us start rolling out that T-Mobile playbook of, for example, good, better, best rate plan tiers and having customers self-select up those rate plan tiers. You bring them in with the advertising and then they see the value in the higher tiers and self-select up. So again, very early days, but we're encouraged by what we're seeing from a thesis perspective playing out.
That's great. And maybe staying with the fiber conversation. And we've certainly done this. I think everyone has done this in terms of modeling out passings and subscribers. But think for a lot of us, the RetailCo and InfraCo economics are a little harder to translate to consolidated EBITDA and free cash flow. So maybe you could help us think about the biggest swing factors between a fiber JV being strategically attractive and actually being free cash flow accretive for T-Mobile.
Well, there's no, I would say, disconnection between the 2 for us because what we're looking at is what are businesses that can continue to ultimately be free cash flow accretive for us, the ultimate value creation engine for investors. And so when we think about -- well, what does a JV partner have to look like for us to be attractive? And why we've been so disciplined in what we've done here is, one, it starts with geography, like they have to be able to build in geographies that we can get first or very near first to fiber because that allows you to get the penetration rates using the T-Mobile brand, and that's the #1, I think, factor, penetration rates, obviously, in ARPAs in terms of what are your ROIC is going to look like on this.
The second is how can you get the right partners in this space. We're not experts at laying fiber, certainly not yet, right? So how do you partner with the right people? We bring the brand customer distribution marketing know-how. They bring the fiber build know-how and together, it creates the magic that the JVs are, if you have the right partnership model.
And the third to your point is -- and this is unique to the structure, which is, hey, if you're building very early, it's very capitally intensive. So why don't you do a JV like structure? First reason is the partners want to stay in, right? They're excited about the opportunity they want to stay in as well. And doing the JV structure is really smart from an ability to lever up and provide the funding needed for this early build and get again, first to fiber, get the T-Mobile fiber machine working on that to get the penetration rates on it. We're growing very fast now. So obviously, what you're going to see now, like in any subscription business is customer acquisition costs come on board as you're scaling that platform really rapidly. And then ultimately, it turns to free cash flow accretion in the later years. But we think about those, there is no deal that we've ever looked at that says, well, I want this deal for this reason, and it won't be free cash flow accretive to investors in the long run. It absolutely has to be.
Understood. Let's talk a little bit about competition, especially on the broadband side. When you think about Verizon and AT&T, leaning harder into fiber and some of these bundled offers, what are you actually seeing in these overlap markets? And is there evidence that their fiber footprint changes wireless switching activity, churn or promotional intensity? Or is the impact still smaller than I think what a lot of folks assume?
Yes. So you came back to the convergence.
I came back [indiscernible].
What we call bundling. We're not seeing anything different there than I think we've laid out this thesis and you see it play out in the results. This has been in the run rate for years and years and years. It continues to be in the run rate. And you see the differentiated volume and financial results that we're able to put out there. And we've mentioned things like, hey, even in places where our competitors have fiber and are building fiber, our share of postpaid continues to grow. And so those are the things to look at. Nothing fundamentally has changed here at all. We continue to grow. We continue to deliver the differentiated financial results. Customers still feel the mobility aspect of this is the way more considered purchase. And so there's nothing really new here, nothing that's changing any of the elements of it. But -- and if you step back and look at Q1, it's a great example. You've got AT&T who's been touting convergence and the fiber build strategy probably because they don't want to explain that what they're really doing is spending a lot of capital to upgrade legacy tech to fiber, which makes sense for terminal value and getting a slight delta on ARPUs, but you're not seeing it play out in results. I mean they just posted the largest year-over-year increase in postpaid phone churn of anybody in the industry. So it's not really playing out in terms of some sort of benefit to them, and you're seeing the delivery of the results that we have.
Understood. And maybe switching gears a little bit, but still talking about competition. You could fill in the gaps over here, but I want to talk about satellite. And there are certain satellite operators that sound pretty confident in their ability to compete with broadband against -- not with broadband, but against terrestrial providers in direct to sell. Can you help us understand whether there's a real business case for these satellite operators and especially as they kind of move towards their next-gen satellite launches and/or close on some of their spectrum deals?
Yes. Well, the short answer is no. There's no effective way for them to compete with a terrestrial network. And they're not limited by money or number of satellites. They're limited by the laws of physics. And here, let me get into that a little bit more, 2 fundamental things that are the problem. One of those being just signal power. So when you're thinking about a terrestrial network, you've got a site that's probably -- I'm going to go kilometers now for the second, like a kilometer away from you, obviously, has a lot of spectrum and it's putting out a lot of power, compare that to, for example, a satellite -- remember, these are different constellations in the broadband satellite, a satellite that's 350 kilometers up, which is probably as low as you can go. You go any lower, you're going to have a lot of propellent needed to keep the things stabilized, which means you get in the catch-22 cycle of then larger power arrays, which mean more atmospheric drag, which just -- so 350 kilometers is probably the lowest that you can go. So now you're trying to send a spectrum signal. And think about this as like a garden hose, water through a pipe. And you're trying to shoot it 350 kilometers away to a mobile device. It's a lot different than the broadband product, which is shooting to an outdoor large antenna. You're trying to not only shoot a small mobile device, but it's mobile. And the problem is the basic physics of that water through the pipe and through the outlet is what we call open signal loss, right? And this is just the amount of signal loss that you get with no obstruction is not just linear in terms of the distance. It's actually an inverse square. And you cannot put enough power. You can put 100,000 satellites up with all the spectrum of all 3 MNO operators, and you will never be able to project enough power to overcome that open signal loss of 350 kilometers. What that practically means is by the time it down to earth, where the mobile phones are you don't have enough signal to overcome things like roofs, glass, modern vehicles. And so you cannot provide a reliable experience to customers in 70% of the time where they spend is in buildings or in cars, modern vehicles. So you can't service a customer in 70% of the time that they're spending on a mobile device. And again, you can put up all the satellites you want to, the fundamental laws of physics will not allow you to generate a beam signal strong enough to actually overcome obstacle. so that's the first and most basic reason why it cannot be a competitor to terrestrial networks.
The second is capacity. And there's a theoretical limit also to the beam size. When we do estimates around 1 of the operators out there who's going to have a V2 D2C or D2D, however you want to think about it, satellite, that beam size is significant. For example, if you think about Manhattan, New York, where you're in New York a lot, that beam size is roughly multiple, 6 to 15x depending on how you define Manhattan. But multiples the size of Manhattan. And that V2 service is going to be able to provide a decent service, outdoor service, see the previous conversation I had to about 10 concurrent users. So think about that, a beam size is larger than the size of Manhattan that can reliably provide service to 10 concurrent outdoor users. It's just not an experience that customers demand. And so for those 2 fundamental reasons, it's just not an overcomable situation. Now that doesn't mean it doesn't have a place. Like we've long said, it has a great complementary place in outdoor areas, particularly areas like national parks, where the economics just don't make sense to build a terrestrial network, but it can be a great added complementary benefit for customers. And that's where we see it play out. That's where we see the hotspots are. If I look at the last week of data, D2D traffic on our network was -- count the zeros, 0.002% of traffic. And that's because for the first 2 reasons, I said it's just not where 70% of people are, but it does make sense in that place where terrestrial networks just don't make feasible economic sense. And that was the whole purpose of the JV is how do we make this a win-win for satellite operators, for consumers and make it economically viable for the carriers as well. So how do we stimulate competition in this space, give consumers the coverage in those few limited outdoor areas like national parks where, by the way, by pulling our spectrum together, we can take care of the hotspot needs of a Yosemite or a Yellowstone National Park, and have it be a great complementary service. That was the whole thought process behind this. But in terms of a competitor to a mobile network operator, it's just not physically possible. And this is also the reason why we said, well, you've given them an MVNO, So well, it doesn't differentiate you, like there's no differentiation. So no, we're not going to give them an MVNO. It doesn't make sense for us to give them an MVNO. The answer is no.
And despite you saying no, we keep getting the same question around, well, they said it this way and they -- and just very clear that there's no interest in a satellite MVNO.
No, no interest.
Okay. Perfect. I think that hopefully is clear enough for folks. With the time that we have, a few other topics that I want to make sure we touch on, maybe cost savings and AI. You framed the $2.7 billion of cumulative savings target by 2027 and with even more opportunity beyond that. As a CFO, how do you separate gross savings from net savings? And I think what I'm trying to really get at over here is how much of the AI and digital productivity benefits should investors expect to actually flow through versus being reinvested in network, retail, care or growth?
Yes. Well, figures that we gave you, the $2.7 billion in 2027, that's the amount that's actually flowing through to the bottom line and incorporated in that pretty ambitious guidance that we put out there. And like you said, there's way more opportunity even beyond 2027. It's not like $2.7 billion is the ultimate one. But we have conservative adoptions, assumptions and things to that effect, but that will grow beyond 2030, and we'll see even more gross benefit. But what's even more exciting than what are going to be great, and we're already seeing some of that, some great cost efficiencies and productivity efficiencies come out of that is, what does this mean for both consumers and the TAM and service revenue opportunity for us beyond cost efficiencies. Certainly, you see us leverage the fact that we're so far ahead on network to put early things out there like live translate, right? That's a great AI use case. It's in beta now, that can really provide meaningful incremental service to both consumers and businesses alike. But the even bigger opportunity that's not in any of our plans from a service revenue, core EBITDA free cash flow perspective, but because we're the network leader from a technology, we're certainly the central ones who can take advantage of this is physical AI. So for the first time, when you think about it, a simple use case is, for example, robotics. And the challenge of robotics manufacturer has is, I really need -- if I have a fleet of robots or drones, I really need space time coherency as Dr. Saw tells it. I need to be able to know where those things are and when they are, so that they're not crashing into each other, they're able to interact, they're able to do the tasks that they need to do. And to accomplish that, I either have to do 1 of 2 things, put a lot of the technology on the device itself, which means not only sensors, compute but battery drain is a real issue. And that makes the devices really expensive. Or my other alternative is, cool, let me do inferencing in the central cloud, but the problem is the time dynamics, the latency just doesn't solve that problem. So now you're going to have robots and drones crashing into themselves. So this is the first time where networks are going to be in the center of this where you can have inferencing at the edge that allows robotic manufacturers, drone manufacturers. We've got a few of these already. We're working on with other companies to be able to take some of that compute and battery drain, make these things cheaper and put some of that inferencing on the edge because that inherent latency and jitter and other aspects that are so important are fast enough to be able to do it. And that solves that problem. If I couldn't do it with the central cloud, there's still be plenty of stuff in the central cloud, but you need the central layer of a distributed edge-based inferencing technology that only a network can provide and ours being 2 years ahead of everybody else is in the center of this. So this, to me, is one of the most exciting opportunities of significant TAM expansion for this company and the industry as a whole later if and when they catch up from a network tech perspective, which they won't. Dr. Saw won't let that happen neither will we. But you've got the ability to connect and being the center of value creation of the next AI revolution, which is physical AI.
And I think -- I'm not going to push you to provide numbers unless you're willing to. But some telecom investors that I think have -- remember 3, 4, 5 years ago, when there have been made -- there have been some promises made of 5G and what different use cases and business cases could be. And that hasn't necessarily evolved in the way that I think some had hoped. But it sounds like these opportunities are a lot more tangible in near term and you're seeing that. Is that a fair characteristic?
Yes. Remember, we've never put those out as we're the company that has to see the opportunity. It has to be real before we promise investors, oh, MEC is going to deliver $1 billion or $10 billion or whatever it was that Verizon said long ago, we put 0 of that in our plan because there really wasn't this connection of, okay, what is the value proposition to whom? Like I'm just going to take a software application that's living in the cloud and move it on-prem. We didn't see how that was really going to create a lot of value for anybody. And so we didn't put MEC into our plan. This is fundamentally different because, again, you either have very expensive robotics, drones, all the things that physical AI is going to bring or you can do it with the cloud or you solve it by making all of this cheaper, having battery drain not be a problem and having it solved at the edge. So it's not just bringing some sort of software closer. It's actually providing a value that would never have been brought under MEC.
Perfect. All right, 3 minutes and 2 last questions. One on capital allocation, which, to me, seems to be perpetually underappreciated part of your story, I guess in my seat. For 2026, your -- you've -- your return authorization stepped up to $18.2 billion. The balance sheet remains a relative advantage. When you think about the next dollar of excess capacity, how do you rank buybacks, dividend, spectrum, fiber JVs and other smaller strategic M&A?
It's -- we really use our very consistent capital allocation framework that I know we've talked about a long time. First being, to your point, what is the right leverage for us. We want to have flexibility. We have the best balance sheet in the industry that creates a lot of strategic optionality in the future as well. But what's the right leverage for us. We continue to believe it's 2.5x core adjusted EBITDA. That's a growing core adjusted EBITDA. So that in and of itself creates a lot of capacity. And then you go down the waterfall and say, one, I need to make sure I'm investing sufficiently in the business to take this best network, best value, best experience proposition and make sure that it continues to be in a leadership position. We have no desire to fall behind in our network leadership. We want to grow. And things like physical AI or something that's tremendously exciting for us, neither so on value or experience. So that's the first place you invest for long run value creation. The second is you look at things like spectrum acquisitions or smart M&A, you see us do it in the JVs very prudently. And then you look at how do I return to shareholders any of the excess. And that's a balanced, dividend and share buyback plan. So we keep running it through the same thought process and philosophy.
Ton of excess. Okay. Last 1 for me. when you talk to investors, where do you think the debate today is still too focused on? Maybe we talked earlier about postpaid phone and whether or not that's a right or wrong metric. Where do you think folks should be spending more of their time on in terms of underwriting the T-Mobile story?
I think it's -- and we've touched on this many times already in the conversation. It's the full left to right of don't focus on just 1 KPI but focus on how we're able to translate growth, the P and the Q plus new opportunities like financial services, T-Mobile for Business, 5G broadband into true tangible value creation in the form of service revenue, core EBITDA and free cash flow margin and how fundamentally differentiated it is to the others in the industry. And again, we have the structural elements to keep that advantage and keep that growth going on way into the future in a very differentiated way. So I think that's the fundamental piece, coupled with particularly this concept of where physical AI could take this company. That's not embedded in any of the guidance that we gave you, that's already exciting and what that means potentially for the future of the company.
Fantastic. All right. Peter, thank you so much for your time today.
Thank you so much for having us.
Yes. Absolutely.
Appreciate it.
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T-Mobile US — 2026 Evercore Global TMT Conference
T-Mobile US — 2026 Evercore Global TMT Conference
CFO Osvaldik betont: Ausführung auf „best network, best value, best experience“ treibt qualitatives Wachstum, Fix‑Wireless & Fiber liefern frühe Erfolge.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: T‑Mobile sieht starke Bestätigung der Februar‑Strategie: überlegene Netzqualität führt zu höherer Kundenqualität, Service‑Revenue‑Wachstum und Free‑Cash‑Flow‑Conversion; Management setzt auf nachhaltige Monetarisierung statt kurzsichtiger Geräte‑Promos.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Netz & Kundennutzen: Fokus auf Netz, Wert und Erfahrung schafft NPS‑Vorsprung; Q1 zeigte 217k Postpaid‑NetAdds, Service‑Revenue +11% YoY, Core‑EBITDA +12% YoY und 24% Free‑Cash‑Flow‑Conversion aus Service‑Revenue.
- Monetarisierung: ARPA‑Pfad: ca. 2% in Q2, Beschleunigung H2 auf 2,5–3% p.a.; Treiber sind Front‑book/Back‑book‑Effekt, Premium‑Mix, Mehrprodukte pro Account und Broadband‑Attach.
- Neue Wachstumsfelder: 5G‑Fixed‑Wireless (Ziel 15 Mio. Subs bis 2030), Fiber‑JV‑Rollouts, T‑Mobile for Business und physische AI‑Use‑Cases (Edge‑Inferencing für Robotik/Drohnen) als langfristige TAM‑Erweiterung.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Fix‑Wireless: Management erhöht Zielsetzung und zeigt starke operative Kennzahlen (schnelle Kundenaufnahme, steigende Netzgeschwindigkeiten, Router‑Performance ~400 Mbps Wi‑Fi).
- Fiber‑JV‑Early‑Reads: Erste Kohorten liefern ~20% Penetration im ersten Jahr; JV‑Struktur soll frühe Skalierung erlauben ohne T‑Mobile alleinige Bau‑Last.
- Kosten & AI: $2,7 Mrd. kumulative Einsparungen bis 2027 fließen in Guidance; AI‑Produktivitätsgewinne sollen Nettoeffekte und neue Service‑Chancen bringen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- CLV vs. Promos: Analysten fragten nach Qualität der Neukunden; CFO nennt CLV‑Anstieg im Q1 (zweistellig YoY), Port‑in ARPAs ~20% über Port‑out und vermeidet tiefe Geräte‑Promos.
- Churn‑Interpretation: Unterscheidung Account‑ vs. Postpaid‑Phone‑Churn (Account‑Churn höher durch Broadband‑Accounts und neue, kürzere Tenure‑Accounts); Management sieht das als strukturelle Mathematik, kein Alarmzeichen.
- Netz/Kapazität & Satellit: Fragen zu Fixed‑Wireless‑Skalierbarkeit, Fiber‑JV‑ROIs und Satelliten‑Threat; Osvaldik betont fallow‑capacity‑Modell, steigende Geschwindigkeiten und erklärt, dass Satelliten D2D physikalisch kein flächendeckender Ersatz sind.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Call bestätigt operativen Fortschritt: T‑Mobile setzt auf hohe Kundenqualität statt aggressive Geräte‑Promos, skaliert Fixed‑Wireless und Fiber über Partnerschaften, nutzt AI für Kosten und neue Use‑Cases; relevant für Anleger sind resilientere Margen, klarer ARPA‑Pfad und optionaler Upside durch physische AI.
T-Mobile US — J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology
1. Question Answer
Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Sebastiano Petti, and I cover the telecom, cable and satellite space at JPMorgan. I want to welcome T-Mobile's CEO, Srini Gopalan. Srini, thanks for being with us today.
Well, thanks for having me here. And just before we get started, I'd like to draw your attention to our safe harbor statement that I will be making forward-looking statements and using non-GAAP measures. But delighted to be here.
Thank you. Thanks for joining us. And I think it's your first time at the conference. So great. So Srini, since the February capital markets update which reset multiyear guidance to reflect not only recent M&A, but as well as improving underlying trends, T-Mobile followed up with a strong first quarter print. What are the 2 to 3 priorities you're most focused on executing against, I guess, over the guidance horizon?
Yes. Thanks. Look, the heart of what drives our outsized growth, both revenue but also financial and tumbles into industry-leading free cash flow, is differentiation, right? Our NPS is today, 20% higher than that of AT&T and Verizon. And the heart of that is being able to bring together best network, best value and best experience.
So what I'm really focused on is widening that differentiation in networks that's going from 5G to 6G that's driving 5G advanced. In terms of protecting our position on best value, that's providing value not just once in 2 years, but on an everyday basis.
And on best experience, the heart of our best experience has been our people. Now we're augmenting them with digital and AI. And the reason that differentiation is so central to the way I see the world is all of the outsized growth.
And I'll just give you a few examples. We've got 20 million businesses and families who are still using AT&T or Verizon because they think it's the best network. In small markets and rural areas, our market share is 24%. We're in a very, very early innings there. Enterprise, our market share is in the 10% to 15% range, massive opportunity there. Broadband, we talked about at the Capital Markets Day, we have the opportunity to get to close to 20 million customers by 2030.
And then there's all the new businesses we're incubating, things like financial services. Also, the possibilities with edge AI and physical AI. So there's a lot of growth ahead of us. And the heart of that growth is stoking differentiation. So what I'm focused on is making sure that we say streets ahead on best network, best value, best experience.
Yes. The network perception, you called out the 20 million network seekers, right, that aren't on your T-Mobile subs. In first quarter, you saw the highest ever share of switchers citing network quality. So beyond the passage of time and marketing and ad spend, what specifically closes the residual perception gap? And help us about maybe realistic time line to when you could possibly fully neutralize that?
That journey is well on its way. And you say with every passing day, we get more recognition for it. Things like the Ookla Speedtest, which is 0.5 billion data points across the country. This is not kind of a drive test where you have 50 people driving around and trying to figure out who the best network is. This is billions of data points from actual customers. You've seen J.D. Power, where after 22 years, we claimed the best network position. So we're getting more and more recognition from it.
The thing we're learning that we're now scaling is ultimately, changing network perception is about what the network means for you, right? Because nobody really cares about America's best network beyond a point. Network differentiation happens when you experience it, when our network is demonstratively superior where you work, where you live and where you play. And we're getting to the place now we're able to target people at an individual level and demonstrate to them, network superiority. And that's really what creates this acceleration.
I don't look at this as a point of we will arrive at some point, which is the truth. The reality is we will make a lot of share gain along the way. 20 million accounts, families, businesses is a lot of runway. Just think of it this year with our guidance, you're talking 1 million and change accounts. That's a lot of years of growth left for us.
And any update in terms of maybe what you're observing in May or since the earnings call in terms of just promotional intensity across the ecosystem? You are still confident in customer lifetime values being maintained at appropriate levels. But I guess, what's underpinning the confidence that led you to raise your postpaid net add guidance after the first quarter?
I think we spend a lot of time obsessing about promotions and competitive intensity at the margin. Sure, it's important. But if you think of it, right, there is a flow of where the water is going, and then there's kind of perturbations on top. The flow of where the water is going is based on differentiation. When you have 20% higher NPS, when you have best network, best value, best experience, there's a natural demand pull that's heading in our direction. That, at its core, is what gets us comfortable with raising postpaid guide.
You said something really important there, though, because our true north on how many nets we do in terms of accounts in any quarter gets driven by our view of CLV. And you saw first quarter, 6% higher accounts than last year. We didn't talk about this at great length, but also better value. So our port-in ARPA was 20% higher than our port-out ARPA.
And so when you look at competitive intensity, yes, sure, December-Jan was more intense. But as we work through the first quarter, we saw value in going after more accounts because the CLVs were strong. We were looking at our port-in ARPA versus our port-out ARPA. All of that filled us with confidence that we were booking stuff that had really strong CLVs. And quarter 2 is going really well.
Great. And then you touched on SMRA, share hit 24% in the first quarter. So this is, I think, your 12th consecutive quarter of win share leadership, if I'm not mistaken. So just beyond word of mouth, I mean, what's resonating in these markets? Is it distribution efforts, brand? And I guess, I mean, what's the long-term ceiling if you'd have to frame it for investors?
Can I start with the second piece?
Yes sir.
Because this theory of a long-term ceiling kind of assumes no differentiation. There's this view of the world that if there are 3 players, everyone sits at 33% share. That assumes all 3 are the same. The reality is when you've got best network, best value, best experience, all 3 are not the same.
So you look at the city of New York, we have about 50% market share there. That's what happens when you bring the 3 things together. Not suggesting that SMRA is going to get a 50% share, but we're at a very, very early innings in SMRA.
In terms of what we do differently in SMRA, what we're seeing is an underappreciated thing in wireless is the network effect. And that's just a bad pun. But what I mean by that is when you get to something like 24%, 25% share, you get more and more word of mouth. And that creates its own upward spiral where you're seeing more and more people talking to each other about the fact that the network is distinctly superior.
And what we've done really well in SMRA is combine the network expansion with the distribution expansion and localized marketing, things like Friday Night 5G Lights, where we go into a small town, there's a $1 million award for fixing the football ground. And last year, we had hundreds of thousands of small towns competing for this. Small town called Dierks in Arkansas with a population of less than 2,000 got 2 million votes, right? And that starts giving you a really local presence and local word of mouth.
Interesting. I was not aware of that program. Pretty cool.
It's actually in Dierks, Arkansas with Gronk. That was quite an experience.
Oh, yeah? Yes, I have to pull that up. So you've always anchored on the best network, which we just have been touching on, at the best value. But should we read that the 2026 guide as -- from an ARPA perspective, I apologize. Should we assume that the 2026 ARPA guide embeds a rate action at some point this year? And I guess more broadly, what's the composition of the 2.5% to 3% ARPA growth? And how much is pricing versus mix in terms of features?
So I'm not going to break up the 2.5% to 3%. Let me give you directionally how we think about this thing. We guard our value leadership zealously. Now we're -- we've strategically architected our portfolio so that we have something that's quite rare in the telecoms business. We have a front book that's higher priced than our back book, which means our existing customers actually pay less than our new customers. That just means where -- even volume growth is ARPA accretive.
And the way we think about the sources of ARPA growth is we've got 3 distinct sources of ARPA growth. Number one, this front book/back book dynamic, which is even as we grow volume, we actually grow ARPA. Number two, expanding the nature of the relationship with our customers, which is kind of why this 20% higher NPS at 45 makes a big difference because people don't buy more things from you unless they're incredibly satisfied with the things that they've already bought. And the last, and traditionally, our smallest has been thoughtful more-for-more rate optimizations. And that's the formula you should expect to play out not just over this year, but over the years of our thinking.
And then shifting gears to the broadband business and FWA. T-Mobile was again the fastest-growing ISP in the first quarter with 50,000 -- 500,000-plus broadband adds and with FWA reaccelerating year-over-year. I guess, what's driving that inflection? And how is the competitive backdrop evolving now that Verizon appears to be deemphasizing FWA a bit and AT&T kind of scaling their efforts?
Ultimately, it's really simple. It's an incredible product. So you look at this business, right? Over the last 2 years, our number of customers has doubled. Usage per customer has gone up 25%, and our median download speeds have gone up 50%. And they're 50% higher than our nearest competitor.
So what you have is an incredibly easy-to-use product. In fact, on some of our newest generation routers on WiFi, right? This is not when you plug in fiber Ethernet into your computer or whatever. On WiFi, we're getting 400 Mbps download, which is why our NPS is actually higher than fiber. So it's just an incredible product powered by an ultra capacity network. That's what's been driving a lot of our volume.
And then I guess a persistent bear case that we continue to hear about less so, but is that FWA can't scale sustainably, just given data usage growth curves. I guess, what leading indicators give you confidence that capacity stays ahead of demand? And I guess, what are the release valves if utilization tightens in specific markets?
So let's talk about -- we talked about 15 million customers by the end of 2030. How did we get to that math? Here's what we do. We divide the country into 36 million hex bins. These are small geographic areas typically covered by a sector or even less than a sector.
For each of these areas, we look at the growth in wireless usage based on historic data and then take a conservative view going forward. And we focus that growth entirely between 7 to 9 at night because that's our busy hour. That's what matters as a binding constraint. We take that and block that capacity off. That is only for wireless. Everything else in the network is what we call fallow capacity. The way we got to 15 million was we took that fallow capacity and then capped market shares. We said, "What's a reasonable market share?" Because purely because I can supply, it doesn't mean there will be demand. So we capped that market share.
And that gets us to 15 million, assuming no incremental capacity -- no incremental spectrum purchases, assuming no incremental spectral efficiency, right? That's how we get to 15 million, which is why I'm super confident of our ability to deliver on that 15 million because we will end up seeing more spectrum, and we will use the fallow part of that spectrum. We will see spectral efficiency gains. We're already seeing massive spectral efficiency gains with 5G advanced.
Right. That's before we even think about [ fixed income ] with 6G?
Yes.
Got it. So shifting to the fiber JVs. You announced 2 new ones ahead of the 1Q call, adding, call it, roughly 1.8 million passings, I think, with Oak Hill and Wren House. I guess, what made these the right partners? And what's the decision framework going forward as you think about JVs, wholesale relationships and maybe even deploying your own balance sheet for fiber M&A?
So firstly, the way we think about fiber and broadband as a whole is not kind of some defensive rush to scale because we think this myth of convergence is going to suddenly become relevant. It hasn't in the last 10 years. It's built into our run rate. People can talk about hypotheses on how convergence changes customer behavior. You look at the last 10 years, it simply hasn't happened.
And so our approach to fiber and fiber JVs has been to look at places where we can make double-digit IRRs, where we can scale fiber, those tend to be first-to-fiber areas. And we do them as JVs because our partners bring incredibly valuable local experience in things like zoning, permitting, digging, et cetera. And that will continue to be our approach to rolling this out.
And when you look back -- when you look at our overall plans of 18 million, 19 million, that number will change with these new JVs up until 2030. It's important to remember that FWA is 3/4 of that, right? And that's the -- fiber plays an important role in our portfolio, but it's a role where we see -- where we look for places where fiber can genuinely create equity value and then double down on those with partnerships.
And how have your wholesale partnerships scaled or your partners scaled relative to initial expectations? And is there a preference emerging for JVs over wholesale opportunities?
So look, if I talk about fiber as a whole, it's obviously very early days. But we're tracking well on our penetrations. We're getting 20% first year penetration. Now that's pretty incredible given that the vast majority of this is a greenfield fiber rollout. I'm not converting existing copper customers into fiber, right? That penetration is really strong. And of course, that means I get incremental value rather than ARPU substitution because I'm not shutting down a copper plant to roll out fiber.
In terms of preference, we like the JVs, and we will look at places where we get accretive JVs. Wholesale, depending on the structure of the deal, is a good fallback to that. And we tend to be on fiber, very focused on value creation rather than kind of this is the scale we need to get to because the homes passed number is a little irrelevant.
Well, it's a great segue to my next question. You've been clear that cable isn't a priority and that the focus is on taking share from incumbents. Is there a scenario though, whether it be valuation, asset quality, market structure, that would change that calculus? Or is cable structurally off the table?
Look, I think of this stuff strategically first rather than valuation backwards. Cable is off the table from our perspective, right? The reason for that is kind of threefold. Number one, we're a growth company. Our DNA is the Un-carrier. Our DNA is changing the industry for the good of the customer. We don't play defensive. We don't like being in a place where we're the incumbent. We like being in a place where we're attacking the incumbent.
Second piece is just front book, back book ARPUs, where cable's back book is so overpriced that you're spending your entire time chasing your own tail, right? Because then, you compete on the front book and you suddenly see spin down. Even if you get to positive net adds, you're in a place where value leakage happens.
And third, you look at the speed at which wireless technology is developing, especially as you look at FWA rolling out in countries like India. Suddenly, the ecosystem becomes really exciting because you're getting CPEs cheaper. You're getting the ability to optimize your technology a lot more. And that combination -- and you'll compare that with where DOCSIS is going. That combination is what takes us to a place of no to cable.
And just a quick follow-up on some of the fiber. You talked about getting to 20% year 1 penetration, which is great. But from a build perspective, I mean, how is that -- is that ramping on schedule? Any early learnings in the markets?
So we're seeing good performance on using our distribution. We're seeing good performance on using the T brand, and it's very early doors on fiber.
Got it. Okay. And then shifting gears. At the CMD in February, you framed a $2.7 billion cumulative cost savings target by year-end '27. And I think Peter touched on the call, weighted maybe a little bit towards later stages of 2026 and beyond. Maybe help us think about from an initiative perspective, what's already in flight versus still to come? And maybe what are the largest buckets of savings opportunities?
Yes. Just one clarification. That was $2.7 billion by '27. That doesn't mean that's going to be the run rate going forward. This is obviously an accelerating run rate, so you should expect even more going forward.
In terms of places where we're seeing joy on this broader bucket of digital and AI, I think firstly, it comes from a philosophy of we don't use digital and AI as shaving cost at the margin. We start by saying, what can it do to fundamentally change our experience? What can it do? Because very few customers actually walk into stores or call because they just want to chat to us. They walk into a store or call because they have a problem.
What digital and AI, especially with 24 million monthly actives on T-Life, enables us to do is proactively address that problem before they call. Or when they call, be able to deal with it quickly, efficiently, often through our voice bot. And we made a promise at the last CMD of a 75% reduction in our call volume. We're well on track to that. We're getting something like 60% containment with our InstantCX (sic) [ IntentCX ] chatbot.
So one big source of savings, and more importantly, the next step in the customer experience is everything we're doing in care and retail. The second is the power of this taken to our software development, whether that's in network or IT, where we're seeing just incredible power in having some of our brightest engineers work with 20 agents, agentic interfaces versus actually having them outsource a bunch of stuff. So we're seeing some real movement there.
And thirdly, on the network itself. I mean, when we had Winter Storm Fern, that was the first scale use of AI to actually begin to do our antenna tilt remotely, right, instead of having someone out there in the middle of a winter storm changing your antenna tilt. You're also beginning to see real innovation with things like live translate. So I'd say we're well on track on our -- not just our savings, but using this technology and being at the forefront of this technology to change the experience.
Well, talking about great -- changing the experience, you recently announced an agreement in principle to form a joint venture with AT&T and Verizon aimed at eliminating wireless dead zones by pooling your spectrum and making it available to LEO satellite providers. So I think the stated goals are enabling competition, standardization, helping amongst a fragmented market.
But given that a definitive agreement is yet to be reached, maybe help walk us through the strategic rationale? I mean, why does the JV -- what does it accomplish that T-Mobile couldn't achieve on its own through your existing partnership? And does it -- how do you think about the playing field or level of differentiation going forward?
So there's -- this is very much in keeping with the Un-carrier ethos, right? What we've historically done is done two things very well. One, got out there and innovated to solve a genuine customer problem. Second, once we've had experience with that innovation, sat back and looked at it and said, "If we future cast this and look around corners, where does this go? And therefore, how do we want to play?" So that's the same story that's playing out with T-Satellite.
We worked really closely with SpaceX Starlink. We have a great partnership. We've now extended some of that to broadband to build a new category, which is direct to sell. And we've had lots of experience of how that category is playing out. Long story short, it's clear that this is going to be a fundamentally complementary category. And just to give you an example, we looked at our data in May, and satellite usage is 0.0002% of our total network usage. That's 3 zeroes, right? So it's clearly a complementary use case. And we are seeing it largely focused on the national parks, that sort of territory.
So then you look back and say, clear, we've built this product. It provides value. It does help in dead zones, and it's going to be a complementary product. How do we see this industry playing out? You're seeing more and more that there's going to be probably 3 players in space that -- when I future cast this industry, I look at it and go, most consumer wireless, especially the premium offers, are going to land up having satellite connectivity linked to it, right? We've also seen very, very little take-up of a la carte connectivity, right? Pretty much, no one buys satellite stand-alone. They buy it as part of the premium package which gives you a bunch of other benefits, global roaming, ad-free Netflix, et cetera, et cetera.
And I look at it and go, this is going to become a standard part of most premium offerings from all players, and there'll be enough supply of it. And this is no longer going to be a source of differentiation. However, there are real problems to be solved. Problems like device ecosystem. Right? Some devices support it, some don't. There isn't a uniform device ecosystem. Problems like IP, right, and standardized interfaces and standardized ways in which consumers can get access to the service.
Problems like standardized spectrum. Now you may ask the question of if it's 0.0002%, why do you need spectrum, right? The reality is in hotspots like in the national parks, you do need spectrum. And because of the distribution of spectrum, I might own the right spectrum outside Zion National and Verizon might have it over Yellowstone, right, which doesn't help the customer. And bringing it together creates a uniform spectrum world where we can pool in that spectrum.
So all of that standardization plus aggregation of demand, which for the smaller satellite players is critical or for the recent entrants is critical, creates a satellite ecosystem that allows the American customer to get wireless plus satellite as part of a standardized package. Now we will compete, obviously, as providers in terms of how we innovate around that. But as we look around corners, the differentiation doesn't exist, and this is about creating an efficient wholesale infrastructure.
And how do you think about the risk that a D2D provider eventually goes direct-to-consumer, whether it's through a build-out or an MVNO? And I think you've made your views on how an MVNO with a D2D provider may or may not play out.
Let's start with the MVNO first. I think I've been really clear. That's not something we're interested in. We have criteria around how we pick an MVNO. It needs to be an incremental TAM, and we don't see how this gives us an incremental TAM.
We deal with the D2D, D2C. I think there's a real danger here that is we get lost talking technology. The real question is, what is the meaningful gap from a customer perspective in this market? Is there a significant large meaningful gap that's not being addressed, right? I think as we bring satellite and wireless together to address dead zones, I think that's something that does address a customer need.
But if you think about in the non-dead zone areas, I'd almost frame the question to you, what do you think is the gap that D2D or D2C would address that's not being addressed by terrestrial? And then we can have an informed conversation on technology. But starting technology first, could there be a D2C product? Yes. But look at the take-up of a la carte satellite, right? So I'm more intrigued in what's the problem to solve.
Right. That's fair. And so now shifting to the network. On the Figure AI partnership, what differentiated capabilities does T-Mobile's network or platform bring to physical AI versus peers? And I guess, where do you see the earliest commercial scale use cases playing out?
Yes. Look, I think the commercial scale, I think 6G, we will start the journey somewhere -- at least T-Mobile will because we're well ahead on 5G. We will start the journey, I'd say, '28. And for it to be at scale, you're looking at about '30, 2030.
Why we're excited by Figure AI is what our technology does in the wireless world -- and we're already seeing some of this with 5G advanced -- is for physical AI to work, you need kind of 3 things: low latency. Because otherwise, it's really hard. The robots will be banging into each other on the factory floor, which is not a pleasant thought, right?
The second piece it does bring is voice built in. So as physical AI scales, the need to interact with robots, humanoids, drone delivery, et cetera, et cetera, will need voice built into the core network. And thirdly, you'd need the drones or the humanoids to communicate with each other, which is only possible with a low latency network. And you'd need this thing we refer to as space time coherence, which is you need to be able to know where any device is at an exact point in time. You need to know both the space and the time that you're communicating with it, right?
So you think of physical AI more broadly, it's only going to be possible with a low-latency wireless network. And today, there's only one player across America who has 5G advanced across the country, and that's us. That sets us up in a beautiful place to get to 6G and all of the benefits of physical AI.
So with C-band not yet fully deployed, and I think you still have some mid-band refarming ongoing, how is T-Mobile positioning for the upper C-band auction that's expected in 2027? And I guess, how do you plan on -- just thinking about the further pipeline of 800 megahertz coming to market longer term?
I think the pipeline is really exciting. And I think Chairman Carr and the FCC have done a phenomenal job in releasing trapped spectrum across the board and also bringing more spectrum to the market. And that will enable true American leadership in wireless technology.
On the specific question of spectrum and auctions, I think there's kind of 3 principles that guide us. Number one, we will maintain spectrum leadership. Number two, we will be 6G leaders. And number three, we'll be extremely thoughtful on how we value spectrum.
The way we've always valued spectrum, given that coverage is no longer that relevant, is really look at a build versus buy, the cost of densification versus the cost of buying that spectrum. That's how we will continue valuing spectrum. And when we value spectrum like that, sometimes we look at some spectrum and say we're going to walk away from that, like the EchoStar spectrum. But you should expect us to absolutely be present. And those 3 principles will guide what we buy and how much.
So -- well, that makes a lot of sense, I guess. And we'll see once we have, I guess, visibility into how much upper C-band is coming to market, but it seems like plenty of opportunities and great balance sheet relative to peers to kind of take advantage of some of that. So we'll -- definitely something to watch.
So on the 1Q call or just ahead of that, you took -- the Board announced that you took 2026 total stockholder returns authorization up by $3.6 billion now to "as much as $18.2 billion." So as you think about the pullback in shares and the management team's view of intrinsic value, which you touched on, how are you weighing buyback versus -- the buyback pace versus other use cases? And what would shift that priority?
We've had a very consistent and successful algorithm to capital allocation. We start with leverage. We assess what the right leverage is. We're still of the view that 2.5 is the right leverage. Then you look at everything that you need to do from an organic business perspective.
And you look at things like M&A and spectrum. And our focus areas on M&A and spectrum have been really clear. M&A is focused on double-digit IRR opportunities in fiber. Spectrum, we've talked about what's coming. We've talked about also kind of specific spectrum deals that we've done. And then that tumbles through to shareholder return. And that's exactly the way we're consistently going to look at it. And that formula hasn't changed, and we don't see why it should change.
So now I would be remiss not to ask about some headlines. So I guess, in regards to the potential -- so there was the Bloomberg article or whomever that cited Deutsche Telekom's interest in pursuing a potential combination. Your comments from the call aside, but I mean, any feedback or maybe what you're hearing from your largest shareholders and what they're telling you about a potential combination? And I guess, more broadly, we've talked about fiber M&A, but I guess, what's the appetite for "transformational M&A" more broadly?
When most people -- I'll answer the second part and then come to the first. When most people ask me about transformation M&A, that's normally code for are you buying cable. And I think I've been really clear on that. So I won't go back over that ground, right?
On your question on the Bloomberg article, I'll say what Peter, myself, Tim have said over the last few days, right, which is we won't comment on speculation. And nor is there anything to comment about, really. On the back of the article, we did get a bunch of inbounds on governance. And just to clarify, our governance in -- consistent with Delaware law, any such hypothetical transaction would need the majority of minorities or the majority of what's called the disinterested shareholders. And both DT and our Board of Directors have confirmed this. So that's really all that there is to say.
Got it. Understood. And I guess maybe going back, so talking about maintaining -- being a leader in 6G. Is that -- help us think about the development time line there. Does it require a big new CapEx cycle? Is it more software virtualization-driven just layered on top of the 5G advanced infrastructure?
Look, there's puts and takes. But the answer -- the best answer we have so far is there's no fundamental change in capital intensity. And the puts and takes are fairly simple. You'll need an new air interface. No indication that, that's going to be step function different. You'll end up having some AI compute because this will be the first wireless network that not only processes bits and bytes, but also processes tokens.
But the idea would be to look at fallow compute or to build a 6G network which has the same cost structure or an AI-enabled network that has the same cost structure as a 5G network. And I think there's a lot of indication that a lot more innovation will happen on the core, which will balance out some of it. So on balance, I don't see any change in the direction of capital intensity.
Great. Well, Srini, thank you for the time, and thanks for joining us.
Pleasure. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Thanks, everybody.
Thanks.
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T-Mobile US — J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology
T-Mobile US — J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology
T‑Mobile betont Differenzierung (Netz, Preis, Erlebnis), skizziert FWA‑/Glasfaser‑Wachstum, AI‑gesteuerte Effizienz und ein Satelliten‑JV zur Standardisierung.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
CEO Srini Gopalan setzt auf klare Differenzierung—"bestes Netz, bestes Preis-Leistungs‑Verhältnis, bestes Kundenerlebnis"—als Treiber für weiteres Nettonutzer‑Wachstum (insbesondere in kleinen Märkten, Enterprise und Fixed Wireless Access). Parallel werden digitale/AI‑Initiativen zur Effizienzsteigerung und Produktverbesserung skaliert.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Netz & Nachfrage: Ziel: Wahrnehmungs‑lücke durch messbare Datentests und gezielte lokale Demonstrationen schließen; Marktanteilsaufbau in kleinen Märkten (SMRA) setzt auf Network‑Effekt und lokales Marketing.
- Broadband (FWA): Produktqualität treibt Penetration: mediane Download‑Geschwindigkeit +50% vs. nächstem Wettbewerber; Plan: bis zu 15 Mio. FWA‑Kunden bis 2030 ohne zwingende zusätzliche Spectrum‑Einkäufe.
- Glasfaser & Kapital: Selektive Joint‑Ventures (ca. +1,8 Mio. Passings mit Oak Hill/Wren House) statt aggressive Kabel‑Akquisition; Buybacks weiter Priorität (Autorisierung bis zu $18,2 Mrd.).
🆕 Neue Informationen
Konkrete Updates: zwei neue Glasfaser‑JVs (≈1,8 Mio. Passings), erste Vereinbarung in Prinzip für ein Satelliten‑JV mit AT&T/Verizon zur Pooling/Standardisierung von Spectrum für Direct‑to‑Device (D2D), beständige Outperformance bei FWA‑Adds und 20% Erstjahres‑Penetration in Glasfaserprojekten; Buybackrahmen erhöht.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Netzwahrnehmung: Wie schnell kann T‑Mobile das Image‑Gap vollständig schließen? Management: Fortschritt klar, aber kein Endpunkt; Fokus auf individuelle, ortsbezogene Demonstration.
- Kapazität FWA: Wie skalierbar bei steigender Nutzung? Antwort: Hex‑bin‑Modell zeigt 15 Mio. ohne Zusatz‑Spektrum; zusätzliche Effizienzgewinne und weiteres Spectrum sind Upside.
- ARPA & Pricing: Zusammensetzung des 2,5–3% ARPA‑Ziels blieb undecomposed; Management nennt Front‑book/Back‑book‑Dynamik, Cross‑sell und selektive Preisanpassungen.
⚡ Bottom Line
T‑Mobile liefert kein radikal Neues, sondern Operationalisierung seiner Strategie: Netz‑Differenzierung, ausgewählte Glasfaser‑JVs, skalierbare FWA‑Ambitionen und AI‑getriebene Kostensenkungen. Positiv für Aktionäre: klarer Wachstumsfokus und erhöhter Buyback‑Rahmen. Risiken: Ausführung bei Glasfaser/JV, Wettbewerbsreaktionen im Pricing, sowie noch offene Details beim Satelliten‑JV und künftigen Spectrum‑Auktionen.
T-Mobile US — MoffettNathanson's Media
1. Question Answer
All right. Good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for joining us for this afternoon's session with T-Mobile. Thank you to those of you who are joining us on the web as well from MoffettNathanson's 13th Annual Media and Communications Conference. And I'm delighted to welcome Peter back to our conference. This is T-Mobile's 12th appearance in 13 years at our conference.
And if I think back on those years, it's really been an impressive journey, I think, from upstart challenger in those days, to, in many ways, the industry's leader. So we've got a lot to talk about today, convergence, FWA, satellite. We're going to get to all of those. But just because it is so topical and with Deutsche Telekom having reported earnings and spoken this morning. I want to start with the reports in the news that over the last weeks about the possibility of corporate activity between you and T-Mobile. And -- between you and Deutsche Telekom. And make sure I understand the corporate governance aspects of that, that protect the shareholders here in the U.S.
Awesome. By the way, thanks for having us again. It's always a pleasure. I know we had our safe harbor statement up there, so I always point you to that. I'll be making forward-looking statements and, of course, non-GAAP measures.
So yes, let me start there. And really I just don't have a lot to add to what's speculation and the hypothetical transaction out there. But -- there have been a lot of inbounds around, okay, if a hypothetical transaction happened, what's the governance around it. And as a result of those inbounds, our interpretation of Delaware law is that any such hypothetical transaction would require a -- what's termed the majority of the minorities or the majority of disinterested shareholders. And because of the volume of inbounds on that, we have confirmed that, and DT has confirmed that to us as well as the independent directors on our Board have confirmed that to us. So that's really the governance structure, and that's obviously important for people. But as I said, it's a hypothetical speculative transaction. And honestly, we're spending all our time focused on the business and driving the differentiation and the growth there. So happy to get that out of the way, but there's just not much more for me to say on the speculation.
Understood. Okay. So now let's dig into the business. We upgraded your stock to buy again back in April after a couple of years actually on the sideline, in part because we had updated an analysis on geographic cohorts. And while we actually talked about that in the context of the rural cohorts. I think the most impressive part was that you're back to, at least by our numbers, seeing accelerating share gains in the urban top 100 markets where you were already the market share leader. Talk about that, if you would. Geography is only one way to slice it. There are all kinds of demographics or psychographics or that sort of thing. What are the market segments that are driving that reacceleration in the top 100? And what kind of legs does it have in your mind?
Yes. And you're right. And really, we're seeing growth across the board, whether that's in smaller markets or rural areas or the top 100. We tend to segment even within the top 100 we've long talked about. There's really three main cohorts that we look at just from geographies. And that is the ones where we are a market share leader, including sitting here in New York where we're over 50% market share and continuing to grow and then more cohorts that behave actually similarly to our smaller markets and rural areas.
But -- it's really -- whether you look at subsegments, demographics, geography, I mean, in reality, and we tend to distill this down to three simple things, but it's what people care about, and that is can I get what I deem is the best network or a very reliable network? Can I get the best value and I want really great experiences. And as you know, you talked about the arc of -- we've been here for 12 years and the growth of T-Mobile. And it really started with focusing, of course, on the value side of the equation and the experience side of the equation. And with the merger with Sprint and our ability to then unlock the 2.5 gig spectrum, it's now taken us to a place where really any real objective third-party measure out there that's based on real customer use, real device use, I mean, puts us as the best network.
And that's a cohort of customers that in the past, we simply couldn't attract, right? So it was really growth based on value and experience. And what we saw, in fact, in Q1, we just had the highest ever share in terms of new accounts that came to T-Mobile. It was our highest ever share of those accounts that came in saying that they're choosing us for network. So the word of mouth and the ability for consumer perception to catch up with where the network actually is, is starting to happen, and that's certainly helping to drive a whole new set of opportunity for us. We've talked about it as at a minimum 20 million families and businesses that we call network seekers. And while all elements of that equation are important to them, the most important to them is the network quality. And that's one that is certainly starting to drive more and more significant growth in the top 100. And that's how even in markets like New York, we can continue to grow. It's fabulous.
So are there others that come to mind -- so that's a psychographic segmentation, if you will, of the network seekers as you described it. But as I think about all -- whether it's demographics, whether it's income levels, whether it's ethnicity, whether it's -- are there other segments that you say, here's somewhere where we see a significant growth opportunity that we're just leaning into?
Well, a lot of them are intertwined, right? So to your point, network seekers tend to be higher prime customers. And so as we see flow, in fact, we have more in terms of additions of new accounts coming in to T-Mobile that were more prime than we had on an absolute basis than we did last year. And that comes part and parcel with network seekers, but it's growth across all the segments. And you see that in smaller markets and rural areas as well. There's plenty of customers who place value first. And many of them, by the way, when you go through analysis and our customer surveys, we in the industry use jargon like, well, is it coverage? Is it reliability? Is it value? A lot of times customers put those all together and say, well, value is what I pay for what I get. And so it's really hard to discern every single demographic and saying, what is specifically motivating them. But we're seeing growth across all of it, whether it's social segments, whether it's age demographics. And by the way, you don't need any more fiber. I think you might [indiscernible] more fiber today, you don't need any more fiber. You looking great -- or across geographies. So -- and that is because, again, it does distill down, it's way more complex, of course, in how we approach it, but it distills down to you even jokingly said in the past, well, if you have the best product at the best price with the best experience, shouldn't your market share be 100. And I don't think we're quite that ambitious, but we certainly have a lot of ambition and there's a lot of room to run when that's the formula.
Well, in those -- so in the nonurban cohorts, I think I wrote my first piece about the rural opportunity for you guys 10 years ago now. What inning are we in? That's been a story that I think people understand pretty well, but it's not over yet.
Yes. It's -- to me, I feel it's still early innings. And while we're at 24% market share, that includes the acquisition of UScellular, I mean, we see continued growth and runway there. And it is because we're finally bringing this equation there. And there wasn't a lot of investment in many of those smaller markets and rural areas in terms of network, and there certainly wasn't that much investment in terms of customer value because that was a place where maybe only one of the two were playing. And so there wouldn't be a great balance for consumers of what you get for what you pay and our ability to unlock that. And remember, we're doing it in a very, very smart way. We had about 4,000 greenfield site builds last year, a lot of them were in smaller markets and rural areas, but all driven by what we call our proprietary customer-driven coverage model, which is really looking at where do consumers really use and need the network.
And that's not a POPs coverage-driven model. It is really where consumer is going, points of interest, critical roads. And that becomes even more important in a smaller market in rural area, where it's something that maybe a lot of people don't live there, but it's an interconnecting road that's tremendously important. And you cover that and our really efficient capital approach finds those areas covers them, does the build and the word of mouth is just growing. So I think there's a lot of opportunity because of the formula there.
Yes. And it's interesting to see you really leaning into that now. If I think about your Billy Bob Thornton advertising, for example, which is sort of aimed at those low-density markets. Is that -- sort of same question I asked about urban. Is there something different that those customers are looking for versus urban customers? Is it more coverage rather than price value? Is it price value more than coverage? What are the attributes that drive success in those markets?
It's not dramatically different than the top 100 markets. You have a group of network seekers, you have value seekers. I think what consumers are really looking for that they were hungry for, for a long time. And it's -- again, if you go to an average consumer and do a survey, whether you ask about, well, is it reliability or coverage or speeds, they see their network experience as a network experience. And they may consider, well, if it works where I need it to work at the speeds I need it to, that's what I define as reliable. So we kind of take all of them with a grain of salt and focus on all of the network related consumer sentiments and driving those up. And so I think it absolutely is. I want this network to work for me where I need it. And I want to pay a fair price for it and great value and get great experience. So that's -- it's just -- I know it sounds really simple, but when you have competitors who don't focus on the equation.
Is that why you leaned into T-satellite and the satellite opportunity earlier than and more forcefully, I guess, than your competitors? It was part and parcel of that coverage value proposition for rural customers? Or was it more urban customers just as likely to go traveling in [indiscernible] and just going to want it? Or did -- did that part of that rural urban skew in your mind?
No. What it really was is -- and this is part of the DNA of who we are, which is let's work together to co-develop something new for consumers and their benefit. And we co-developed this with SpaceX. We're very proud to put it out there. We always -- much like with a lot of other of the innovations that we bring to market. I always expect that ultimately those go to the broader consumer marketplace. We expect that our exclusivity will end. We always anticipated that. And I think we spoke about in the Q1 earnings that really what we've seen as a part of T-satellite is that it's a great complementary service for consumers. But it is relatively low usage and concentrated around areas like national parks, as you might suspect. And for that's probably a testament to just the strength of the terrestrial network that we have. And again, this customer-driven coverage model, which covers a lot of those places where it's important for consumers. So -- that wasn't really the thought process of we're targeting smaller markets and rural areas or top 100. It was let's drive another consumer innovation into the marketplace and others will ultimately follow. And now you're seeing Amazon and Globalstar and that announced transaction. And this is a perfect time to have more competition in this complementary important but very low usage and kind of geographically contained.
I was going to say, have there been any surprises in that? There was -- early on, I think there was a big debate about is this going to be a meaningful driver of brand choice? Is it instead going to be a separate subscription service? Is it instead going to be a way to uplift people into premium plans? It seems like it's coalescing into that last -- the last of those three primarily, is that right?
There's a tremendous amount of things that are embedded in our higher-tier plans that have consumers self-select up there. So this is just one of the elements of value. I think what we've ultimately found because, again, because of the usage characteristics, it's complementary, good and limited to primarily areas like national parks. And as a result, it really hasn't driven a lot of a la carte purchasing of the service themselves. I think of it as well, just another part of the value equation that consumers can see and maybe it helps on the margins with self-selection of the rate plans, but there's just so much other incredible value that drives consumers up those rate plans. So again, I think it's a great complementary product. And we, as T-Mobile is, is on to the next thing.
So I want to close the book on this topic, but I imagine this is probably very top of mind for a lot of people in the room. And that is -- are the LEO satellite services competitors or are they complements?
Yes. They are absolutely complements. And that's why we're excited that Amazon and Globalstar partnership is getting in there. You have AST getting in there. So I think it will be -- they'll have a great competitive set there for the complementary service. But when you step back and think about -- for example, what makes our network now the best network relative to a Verizon or AT&T and you think about, well, how does that compare to what a LEO satellite can do. And I know there's been a lot of talk about, well, in building characteristics and the inability of satellite to cover that. But just if you step back and think about, we have 400 megahertz of mid- and low-band spectrum deployed across 85,000 sites and like 57,000 at last count small cells, coupled with the Dr. Saw magic of continuing technology advancement, that's -- I mean that's a massive build and a massive terrestrial network. And I just -- we don't see this as really a competitor, but more as a complement.
So I'll put you on the spot. I got a very clear and decisive answer from your competitor this morning. Is there a scenario where you would give an MVNO agreement to a LEO satellite operator?
Yes. I think we -- I mean, we've answered that before, and Srini has where -- we're just not seeing the pattern match between what makes us think about what could be a good MVNO partner, and that's usually attracting certain specific demographics or segments or some subsegment of the consumer base or business base that we don't have an advantaged ability to go get after. And you just don't see a pattern match between the satellite constellations and that. So generally, it doesn't seem to fit.
So if I was Jim Carrey, I would say, so you're saying there's a chance.
That's not what I'm saying at all. I'd say the opposite.
The business opportunity has always gone hand in hand with the rural opportunity. So let me ask the same question about the business opportunity. What inning are we in, in the business opportunity?
We're in early innings of the business opportunity. Remember, we laid out at our Capital Markets Day update, we're expecting double-digit revenue growth from the business opportunity. I think we're well on our way. And it's really driven off the fact you mentioned innings, so I'll have to quote our automated ball strike system. But it's when you think about...
That's right, that's [indiscernible]
That's worth. Yes, T-Mobile for business.
Yes. That's right. A lot of baseball fans. Thank you for that.
A lot of baseball fans.
I'm one of them, by the way. Thanks so much.
Hopefully, you don't hit the automated system.
It's so much better. It's really good.
It's pretty cool. But what really drives the business opportunity more so than because it's not just let's go duke it out over phones and tell CIOs that we have a better network and you should replace all of the phones in your business base. It starts with and where we're heavily advantaged on this is, what is the problem we're trying to solve for you? And what's a real business problem that we can help you solve? And then other stuff comes, the phone business comes. So when you think about automated ball strike or what we just did with the PGA, they have to go out to a tournament that string miles and miles of lines everywhere and then you have static locations based on those. Now you have 5G-enabled broadcast that can run around like it just enables a different solution for them, much more simple, but also enhances the experience. And then the other business come. We talked about underwing operations at airlines that we've been able to replace WiFi.
So it's really the innovation where we're uniquely -- because of the technology advancement on a network uniquely qualified to solve, that is also driving then the other aspects of the business. And that's the larger enterprises and government, but also in like the midsized space where we just introduced super broadband. So taking away the complexity, especially at a midsized business that doesn't have massive IT departments to go manage ISPs and all that. But here it is a combined solution. It's a T-Mobile innovation, plug and play with two connections. You don't have to manage it. It's solving a real problem that they have. And then the phone business comes, too.
I want to turn my attention to convergence. Your new financial reporting structure emphasizes convergence really clearly. It focuses exclusively -- almost exclusively on postpaid accounts, which include both fiber and FWA as well as wireless, rather than subscribers. Talk about that. Is the new intent of the reporting structure to emphasize convergence? Or is it some dissatisfaction with the way the industry is reporting sub numbers to the point where sub numbers are just not viewed as meaningful anymore?
Well, it's not emphasis on convergence. And by the way, we've long been reporting accounts and ARPA. It is really trying to align. And what we saw out there in the industry and what we saw even in Q1, which was so funny to me is you really see a misalignment, particularly when you have a hyperfocus on lines. You even noted this with one of our competitors on how do you gain so many lines and lose a bunch of accounts? Well, consumers don't think about their relationship with a T-Mobile or our competitive set as I have 7 different lines, for example. They think about the relationship on an account basis. That's how they choose to switch their entire relationship. That's where they choose to add. And it's not just fiber and broadband, it's all sorts of other connected devices, of course, multiple phone lines where we've been so successful in family bundles in the U.S. and us, in particular.
And so it really is not only the way consumers, buy but then it's most directly translating to. Am I actually creating value instead of losing accounts growing lines. I mean, if you look -- I kind of had fun with this at our earnings call, but -- you saw what we delivered from a Q1 year-over-year perspective on service revenue, EBITDA, free cash flow margin. Those are the value-creating things that everybody should be looking at. And when you focus on -- hyperfocus on just lines and you're losing accounts, Well, suddenly, you had like a Verizon when you adjust Frontier out that was down service revenue year-over-year, or you have AT&T, where you take out that massive contract asset increase, you have EBITDA down year-over-year. You have the highest churn increase. So to us, it's -- let's focus on accounts ARPA directly translates the best into postpaid service revenue creation and value creation, and mirrors how customers buy, but it's not some sort of convergence thing. If anything, it's a bundling thing because that's how consumers think.
Okay. So I'll take your argument that it's not about convergence and that your focus is not by putting wireless and wireline and FWA together. It's not a convergence signal, if you will. But you've called convergence a myth and yet you've also talked about the opportunity to pick up additional fiber assets if the opportunity arises. So how do I reconcile those 2 things? If there's really a benefit to be had by using the T-Mobile brand and attaching it to fiber, either because T-Mobile wireless helps sell fiber or vice versa, then isn't that convergence?
Yes. Well, I think we've long been clear on our position on convergence, which, by the way, has been in the run rate of the industry for like over 5 years now, and you can see our results is that it is, for us, not about while we need some sort of bundle because that's all it is, bundle of wireline and wireless to be able to effectively compete because -- and as we step back, you say, well, you as a consumer don't get any benefit, no functional benefit from merging wireline and wireless, used to be maybe long ago, you wouldn't have to write 2 checks, but the vast majority of consumers are on auto pay. They're not thinking about writing paper checks. You don't get a functional benefit from it. So what is it then? Well, it's a bundle and an ability, in many cases, to get a discount. And so for us, it isn't about, well, we have to have that to play effectively in the competitive dynamics because that's how consumers want to buy. Consumers aren't wanting to buy that way. They have considered purchases around both. Mobile is the much more considered purchase because of the mobility aspects of it and how it needs to work for consumers. And by the way, you saw us lead in broadband growth as well as mobile growth once again in Q1.
But that doesn't mean that there isn't a great ability to make money and bring value to TMUS by hand selecting whether it's 5G broadband or certain fiber pure play. Remember, we don't have legacy assets we need to defend or try to overbuild and then sell a story around. We're looking at where can the brand, consumer relationships, the experience, all that focus and simplicity actually create value by taking on certain specific fiber providers. And 5G broadband is a big cornerstone for our broadband strategy as well, but it isn't some sort of mythical, well, we need convergence. And by the way, if you believe in scale, if you believe, well, you need scale in this place, but we're going to have 18 million to 19 million customers between 5G broadband and fiber-to-the-home, excluding the two deals we just recently announced, that's a lot of scale.
Yes. I'm going to come back to the 5G broadband in a second, but I'm going to just hit this topic one last time because I know it's a question that I get more than any other question probably about you. I suspect you do too. And that is, as emphatic as Srini was on the conference call about we are not interested in cable. I get the question constantly. And I suspect it comes from a place of saying, okay, but cable is the only scaled alternative to having a wireline footprint. And there are clearly investors out there who believe that there is a need for a wireline or at least there's a scenario where there's a need for a wireline footprint. Is FWA a fully sufficient alternative to that and indefinitely permanently a solution?
Well, we certainly see it that way. In fact, obviously, we have the confidence to just increase our guide with respect to 5G broadband up to 15 million subscribers. But what's most impressive -- remember, this is a technology set that's rapidly evolving. And when we just do an arc of 2 years, we've increased our customers dramatically. They've increased usage according to what we expected. And yet our speeds on fixed wireless have increased by 50%. By the way, they're also 50% faster than the next fixed wireless competitor that we have. And what's really cool is when you look at our latest generation routers, our latest gen CPE, which are obviously the best tech at the moment from a CPE perspective that rapidly evolves. They're able to harness the best tech that we have in the network. You have actual lived over WiFi download speeds of near 400 megabits a second, that's over Wi-Fi. So take away the marketing spin of fiber, which is, okay, if I plug my Ethernet core directly. And when you look at what fiber lived experience over WiFi is, it's right there. And this is something that's increased by 50% in 2 years on a rapidly evolving technology. So to us, 5G broadband is a durable long-term technology, especially the way we approach it with fallow capacity and it's a smart way to monetize all that excess capacity that you have. It's rapidly improving. And by the way, has the highest NPS scores of any category, even above fiber.
Why is -- AT&T is still reasonably new to that category, so I'll leave them out for a second. But Verizon is seeing, I think it's at least 10 straight quarters of decelerating growth, you haven't. You've actually started to reaccelerate a bit. What's driving the -- is it directly versus Verizon and that you're competing better against Verizon? Or is there something different that's making the reacceleration for you look so different than what Verizon has experienced?
In terms of where we're getting our share on 5G broadband, the majority is still cable. And when you step back and say, well, why is it different than Verizon? Maybe my answer would be, well, it's the same as why is it different on mobile, where we're hyper focused on we're driving the best product. And I can't speak as to how obviously they do their selections. But we have the best and most advanced network with the best spectrum. The densest grid, and we have Dr. Saw and team who are massively pushing technology forward and will lead into 6G as well. And you have a fallow capacity model that is very, very, very focused, mid-30 million hexbins, we call it, where we're modeling out at that hexbin level, what is capacity, what is utilization going to look like? And when we have excess capacity there, far into the future, that's where we approve somebody for 5G broadband. And that's why you can monetize the capacity while your network speeds are increasing, your 5G broadband speeds are increasing. I think it's the focus on how we approach the tech. Of course, how we approach value with respect to 5G broadband is similar to mobile and experiences, and it's simple. It's a plug-and-play, a great VAT life, onboarding experience, and the proof is in MPS. Everything we do all distills down to, well, what do customers think? Well, customers think this is a category and our product specifically that they appreciate more than fiber as a category.
Verizon said this morning, my math was wrong. I'll stick up from my math. But the...
I would, too.
But I'll ask you the same question, which prompted that response, which was average usage of fixed customers and average usage of mobile customers would suggest that as much as 2/3 of all the traffic on your network today is coming from your FWA customers. That -- and maybe 6% of your revenues, and that was as of almost a year ago at this point. That doesn't give you pause to say, wait a second, is there a mismatch of network resources here relative to the revenue we're getting for it?
No, not at all. Quite the opposite. So it's not near 70%, but it's up there. And I don't think your math is that far off on any of us. What this represents is -- because, again, because of how we approach it, which is, well, this is capacity because of where we are from a spectrum position and macro position and technology position, it's basically unutilized capacity. And so it would have been there, you would have been paying for all of it, vis-a-vis the spectrum, the site leases, all of that, the backhaul and not monetizing it at all.
So what it actually represents is a brilliant way to monetize that capacity. And one other thing to, of course, note is 70% of traffic is a far cry from 70% of network capacity. Obviously, as a percentage of total network capacity, it's massively lower. So to me, it should be, hey, why couldn't we do this earlier? There was reasons we couldn't do this earlier and why we invented this category of this is a smart way to create a multi multi-billion-dollar business with postpaid phone like ARPUs and CLVs, ARPA accretion, customer satisfaction, all by using more smartly the things that you had sitting there unutilized before.
So it's a related topic, but it sort of segues to AI, which I think is a really interesting topic for wireless. Part of the reason you have excess capacity, at least relative to what we would have predicted a couple of years ago is because the growth rate of mobile traffic consumption on traditional devices decelerated somewhat. There's an argument that it will radically reaccelerate, whether it's from delivery drones or driverless vehicles or robotics or meta glasses or all kinds of different applications. I know John Saw would say that's coming. Do you see that coming? Is that the sort of the house view that there is about to be this explosion in network demand?
We're not sure. The reality is we haven't seen it yet. And a lot of the workloads from AI at the moment aren't all the way through to an end user device. And where search has gone, it's kind of just replaced traditional search. So it's been a substitute there. But the beauty of it is this is a network where we're factoring in increased utilization. We have a lot more capacity. We have a lot more capacity with advancement coming, and so we're best positioned. If that really does materialize, then that's a great position to be in from a monetization perspective. But we're certainly and the network team is very cognizant of we're protecting and creating a lot more capacity in the network that this would have to be something like, well, we've never seen ever, ever, ever before to really be problematic. And then there's ways to deal with it. And it, of course, brings up a lot of monetization. Absolutely. Yes, yes.
Yes. Yes. And mobile edge compute and that sort of thing being one of the...
Mobile edge compute.
The AI version of mobile edge compute, which is using some of those facilities for inference and that sort of thing?
Well, it's so different -- I mean, we were never -- we never put in our plan, mobile edge compute way back in the day, and we didn't have to take it out. And we were kind of like, oh, we don't think this is going to potentially pan out because mobile edge compute, as it was originally thought of many, many years ago, kind of like a millimeter wave strategy that was also misplaced.
By the same company.
Perhaps. Was really about, okay, well, I'm going to take 20, 30 milliseconds of latency away from some application that, well, I'll go faster than it can get to the cloud and back. But there was really no -- well, okay, what tangible benefit is that going to bring? There wasn't. What physical AI brings is something totally different. It's not MEC and the advent of MEC. It's a completely different architecture, integrated with the network and doing things that actually can bring and solve real problems.
So for example, if you really believe there's going to be a large physical AI workforce for drones, all the more critical that they have the ability to know where they are and when they are and when they are relative to other things, space time, coherency, as Dr. Saw calls it, I too have a physics degree, but I'm nobody compared to Dr. Saw. But it's -- like, listen, if you wanted a fleet of -- let's just take a robotics use case. If you wanted to have a fleet of robots out there, that would have all the on robot processing capability, sensoring capability to know where they are in relation to everything they need and everybody else. It's just -- it's not feasible. Well, you can do all that processing on the network that inherently, particularly where we are in 5G has a lot of space time coherency in a way that clouds can't provide.
So now you can take compute off the robots, batteries off the robots, sensoring off the robots and enable it with -- at the edge physical AI. I think it's going to be very interesting. None of this is in our plan from a service revenue assumption or anything like that, but it's -- let's be the technology leaders. And let's build the network to be AI capable. We're not incrementally investing as a result of this. It's going to be a byproduct, fallow compute. So I think we're excited about it. Nothing is in the plan about it. We're going to be best positioned for it, but it's different than MEC.
Okay. Back to the gritty nuts and bolts of the reality and where we are today. All three of you and both of your competitors have talked about getting away from the promotional handset model. Talk about that. It looks like what do you think is coming with the next iPhone cycle with foldables and that sort of thing. Is there any way to actually not just get sucked into this kind of perpetual treadmill of handset subsidies?
Yes. You've seen us make moves around this already in Q1 and Q2 optimizing. And by the way, this doesn't mean we're going away from device subsidies. We're just really optimizing it for what consumers really want instead of this broad-based rush to well, who's got the freest phone? I think you had the term of iPhones dropping from helicopters still couldn't get the accounts they needed as a result of that. But -- so be it -- and it really is, let's focus in on what makes T-Mobile special for consumers. And it's not the once every few years device upgrade cycle and how free it is. For some subset of customers, that's important. It's always going to be important. We don't want to subsidize anymore. We have no appetite for that. We have an appetite to focus and hone in on what are all those incremental value elements and experience elements and network elements that you get with T-Mobile, that is how you live with our service and our product every single day versus once every 3 years. And that's what resonates. That's what allowed us to have delivered 217,000 postpaid account net additions in Q1, do that, and this was important. Do that with inflow ARPUs actually 20% higher than outflow ARPUs in Q1. So you're attracting really great consumers. And you can't do that just with here's a free phone. You have to demonstrate to them the product and the value that you're bringing. And so that's really going to be more of the focus point. We've trimmed an optimized already in Q2 on device offers, I can't read the future. I don't know what a foldable device is going to look like or cost or anything like that. But the focus from us, you'll see a lot more of, while we don't want to subsidize more what we want to do is demonstrate to you why this is the best choice on a day-to-day basis and how you live with T-Mobile.
And how do you, as CFO, prioritize? On the one hand, your value proposition and best value positioning is absolutely central to who you are as a company. But on the other hand, you have commitments to your investors and you have guidance and that sort of thing. How do you prioritize I think especially in terms of back book versus front book of your customers because your front book is actually now not radically different than your peers, but your back book is still cheaper. How do you think about the -- that -- hitting that right balance?
Well, I think it's something that's inherent. That's how we've been focused all along. We're not interested in short-term cuts on, I don't know, CapEx to make free cash flow work. That doesn't create value for the company or shareholders in the long term. That's not what we're interested in. And I don't think there's a choice point to be made there. I think it's about how do you actually continue to deliver what customers want -- and of course, that's going to include up-tiering on the rate plans, more value there'll be. And we've said there might be continued rate plan optimizations on the margin. But what's really worked and what's differentiated us from a service revenue and profitability and free cash flow delivery is that our approach to the P&Q and value and experience I think optimizes value creation. And so to me, there isn't some sort of trade-off we're making every quarter on, well, if I just cut this, I can make guidance. It is about the ethos of how we operate as a company. We're going to make the right smart investments in customers, the network and the service revenue comes, the volume comes, the free cash flow comes, I think we've been able to demonstrate that. But so there isn't -- to me, there isn't a trade-off. It's how you approach the business the right way, which is honed in on value creation.
Very quickly, I just want to touch on fiber. It's not -- I know it's not the foundation of what you do, but you introduced new T-Fiber pricing a couple of weeks ago, April 30, I think it was. Dropped your 5-year price guarantee, but also you dropped the requirement that it come with wireless to get the lower price. So you've got prices as low as $45 and that sort of thing. Can you make money at those kinds of price points? And where do you get the customers? Is that a -- you bring them in and then price them up later? Or is that -- are you setting a new price point in the market?
No, I think what you're seeing from us there, and by the way, it's obviously -- we're new to this space. We're making a little bit of a splash. I'm not going to talk all the competitive nuances of how we plan to price in the future. But we introduced tiered structures, which were so successful bringing customers in and then having to self-select up the rate plan. So I think we're very excited about what we're seeing traction-wise there. But call it, like there's promotionality. There's like, hey, we're here, new to the neighborhood, let's make a little bit of a splash while letting customers self-select up that plan, which is so fabulously successful for us in mobile and 5G broadband.
So we've got time for one last question, probably everyone's favorite. You've got a $22 billion discretionary and flexible envelope. How do you weigh that versus further M&A for expanding your wired footprint, for acquiring spectrum, for deleveraging? Talk about your priorities. And for you, I think it's sort of mortgage board buffet of, right? There's a lot of attractive opportunities.
Well, there's a lot of opportunities. But for us, it's all about very consistent capital allocation framework, again, focused on value creation for the company. And so we always start with leverage. We do believe 2.5 is the right place for us. We just recently had an S&P upgrade, by the way. So it's a fabulous journey of where we're at from the debt capital markets perspective. And then we think about investing in the business because that drives tremendous returns. That includes areas like spectrum. We can make smart M&A decisions provided that they have the right IRRs and value creation. So you saw us do that with things like smaller scale and T ads as we scale the advertising platform and grow there. Could be things like fiber, but it has to fit within the ethos of exactly what we're looking for, for fiber or shareholder returns, which we just increased. And we've now repurchased, I think, a little over 240 million shares since the program inception. So we're just over 1 billion shares out there, total outstanding, which is a fabulous place. We've been able to enhance the dividend every single year. And so we think about it from all those perspectives and focus on value.
Well, I appreciate the time you spent with us this morning and -- or this afternoon, and I look forward to having you back for the 13th visit next year.
Thank you so much for having us, Craig.
Thank you.
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T-Mobile US — MoffettNathanson's Media
T-Mobile US — MoffettNathanson's Media
T‑Mobile präsentiert sich als netzgetriebener Wachstumsstory: 5G‑Broadband skaliert, Satelliten sind ergänzend, selektive M&A möglich.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Management sieht Netzqualität als Hauptwachstumstreiber; Marktanteilsgewinne in Top‑100 und ländlichen Gebieten durch freigeschaltetes 2,5‑GHz‑Spektrum und kundenzentrierten Netzausbau.
- Monetarisierung: 5G‑Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) wird aktiv monetarisiert und soll große Teile ungenutzter Kapazität in Erlöse verwandeln.
- Position: Satellitendienste (SpaceX‑Partnerschaft) gelten als Komplement, nicht als Ersatz; MVNO‑Beziehungen sind aktuell kein offensiver Plan.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Netz: ~400 MHz Mid/Low‑Band über ~85.000 Sites und ~57.000 Small Cells; rund 4.000 Greenfield‑Builds; Kundengetriebene Coverage‑Modelle statt POP‑Coveragemetriken.
- Broadband: 5G‑Broadband‑Speedsteigerung ~+50% in zwei Jahren, gemessene Wi‑Fi‑Downloads nahe 400 Mbps; Ziel für 5G‑Broadband‑Abonnenten wurde angehoben.
- Reporting: Umstellung auf Accounts/ARPA statt reine Lines, um Wertschöpfung statt Promotions‑Line‑Wachstum abzubilden.
- Kapital: $22 Mrd. flexibles Budget; Zielnettohebel ~2,5; Prioritäten: Schuldendeckung, Netz/spectrum, selektive M&A bei attraktiven IRR.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Guides: Erhöhung der 5G‑Broadband‑Ambition (zitiert: bis zu ~15 Mio Abonnenten) und neue T‑Fiber‑Preisstrukturen mit Einstiegspreisen.
- Governance: Für jegliche hypothetische Transaktion mit Deutsche Telekom bestätigte Einschätzung: Genehmigung durch Mehrheit der nicht verbundenen Aktionäre („majority of the minorities“) erforderlich.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Marktsegmente: Nachfrage nach Details, welche Demografien / Psychografien das beschleunigte Wachstum in Top‑100 treiben; Management nennt „network seekers“ und höhere Prime‑Inflow‑ARPUs.
- FWA‑Mix: Kritik/Frage, ob hoher Traffic‑Anteil von FWA zur Unterdeckung führt; Antwort: Kapazität war ohnehin vorhanden, FWA monetarisiert ungenutzte Kapazität.
- Satellit & MVNO: Nachfrage, ob LEO‑Provider Konkurrenten oder Partner sind; klare Antwort: Komplementär, MVNO‑Modelle derzeit unattraktiv.
⚡ Bottom Line
T‑Mobile verkauft eine klare Erzählung: überlegene terrestrische Kapazität und kundenzentrierter Ausbau treiben nachfragebasierte Marktanteilsgewinne; 5G‑Broadband wird als skalierbares zweites Standbein monetarisiert. Wichtige Beobachtungspunkte für Aktionäre sind FWA‑Traffic vs. Revenue‑Mix, Economics potenzieller Fiber‑Zukäufe und die Umsetzung der Kapitalallokation.
T-Mobile US — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
[Audio Gap] [Operator Instructions]. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] you may also submit a question via x by sending a post to @T-Mobile.ir or at Srinigopalan using #TGTM-US. I would now like to turn the conference over to Cathy Yao, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for T-Mobile US. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, and welcome to T-Mobile's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Joining me on our call today are Srinivasan Gopalan, our President and CEO; Peter Osvaldik, our CFO; as well as other members of the leadership team.
During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. We encourage you to review the risk factors set forth in our SEC filings. Our earnings release, investor fact book and other documents related to our results as well as reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP results discussed on this call can be found on our Investor Relations website. With that, let me now turn it over to Srini.
Thanks, Cathy, and good afternoon, everyone. We here in Bellevue today, ready to discuss another extraordinary quarter for T-Mobile. This quarter is a powerful demonstration that the strategy we outlined for you in February is working.
Our strategy is driven by widening differentiation. -- providing customers with the best network, best value and best experience all of the same place so that they don't need to make trade-offs anymore. We made strong progress on this strategy this quarter and nothing demonstrates this more succinctly than our NPS score, an industry-leading 45, over 20% higher than that of our next closest competitor.
This widening differentiation gives us access to unprecedented growth opportunities, and our industry-leading growth this quarter is a testament to this. One of the largest of these growth opportunities is the 20 million-plus families and businesses who are network seekers not currently with T-Mobile.
This is an opportunity with a lot of runway and 1 where we're making great progress. In fact, this quarter, amongst recent switchers who chose to come to T-Mobile from another carrier, the highest percentage ever said they chose us for 1 reason, network quality. Similarly, across multiple third-party surveys like HarrisX and from the analyst community, -- we've seen a strong improvement in the perception of our network. That what's led us once again to grow our share of postpaid households in each of our cohorts in the top 100 cities. In smaller markets and rural areas, where we have only 24% share of households, we continue to accelerate and capture more switching share with word-of-mouth driving strong momentum.
In addition to our tremendous momentum in consumer across network seekers and other underpenetrated cohorts, our low share in T-Mobile for Business also continues to give us substantial growth runway. This quarter, we continued to capture share with our network superiority led value proposition in T-Mobile for Business.
Our industry-leading nationwide 5G advanced network continues to allow us to drive TAM creation with advanced network solutions and leveraging that as a thoughtful cross-sell opportunity into traditional voice and broadband offerings. One example of our innovation and action is Major League Baseball's recent rollout of our automated ball strike system, which uses the T-Mobile network to allow challenges to Empire's calls.
Let's now turn to broadband. For yet another quarter, we were the fastest-growing ISP in America, adding over 0.5 million total broadband net additions with 5G broadband net adds accelerating year-over-year. 5G broadband continues to lead the industry in terms of customer experience, topping J.D. Power, Forbes, CNET consumer reports and OpenSignal, just to name a few.
Our 5G broadband speeds also continue to lead the peer group at over 50% faster than the next closest competitor. Fiber is tracking great, leveraging the T-Mobile brand to draw strong interest. And I'm excited about our announcement earlier today that we're entering into 2 additional JVs with leading infrastructure partners to acquire Gonet Speed, Greenlight networks and i3 broadband as part of our returns-focused capital-efficient approach.
Every piece of the business I've talked about so far helped drive our tremendous postpaid net account additions of 217,000 in Q1, which was up 6% year-over-year. But in addition to volume growth, as I said in February, we also have a double-digit advantage in back book pricing over our leading competitors.
In Q1, that translated to a really strong postpaid ARPA growth of 3.9%, a powerful proof point that our unique and durable value prop is resonating as we deepen relationships with customers. T ads and financial services, smart and thoughtful adjacencies that piggyback of the success and scale of our brand and ecosystem are also delivering strong incremental growth.
Now even as we capitalize on our differentiation to drive growth, we consciously double down on the sources of this differentiation across best network, best value and best customer experiences. Let's start with the network. We're continuing to push the envelope of what's possible. We're excited to be rolling out live translation on data soon, our first network native AI application that we demoed for you at our February event.
Live translation uses language learning models embedded into our core and translate your voice into 1 of 80 different languages anywhere in the world. All you need is just 1 connected T-Mobile phone. Importantly, this is just the initial step in us building AI capabilities directly into our network core. Longer term, we see a world where our network becomes the connective tissue for physical AI and accommodate inferencing at the edge.
As a step towards this, we're delighted to share today that we're connecting our 5G advanced network to figure AI's F3 humanoid robots enabling seamless and reliable connectivity from the moment they power on. This partnership, amongst others, will allow us to explore how the T-Mobile 5G advanced network and its capabilities, including assets like the network edge can support the broader evolution of physical AI.
This is an important stepping stone towards building and even more capable network of the future with 6G. On value leadership, which we guard zealously, we further strengthened our credentials with the rollout of our better value plan earlier this year, which offers access to our premium wireless experience to even more customers at a great value. Our other key differentiator is our customer experience.
T-Life is continuing to drive digital interactions with about 25 million monthly active users engaging with the app multiple times a month. T-Life will also serve as the unified platform to support growth into considered adjacencies like financial services and advertising. In retail, we're well underway in our journey towards more experienced stores with several hundred already up and running. Our experience stores see higher premium mix, higher NPS scores than our traditional outlets.
And over time, our mix shift will lead to fewer doors, but also more meaningful customer experiences. So even as our differentiation drives industry-leading growth, we continue to feed and stock it, so that the gap to competition only widens further. Pulling all this together, this is what drives the industry-leading financial growth we've delivered yet again across all key metrics in Q1.
Our postpaid service revenue grew 15% year-over-year. Total service revenue, 11%, a rate that's more than 4x that of our next closest competitor. Our core adjusted EBITDA also grew an industry-leading 12% year-over-year. All of this while continuing to deliver industry-leading free cash flow margins of 24%. Alongside this, incredible financial growth, we returned $6 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. I'll end with saying our results speak for themselves. The unique differentiation we have as the carrier continues to lead to best-in-class results. Just look at our NPS store. The best part of all of this is this team's hunger and the incredible passion our people have to truly delight customers means we're only at the beginning.
Okay, Peter, over to you, provide an exciting update on our guidance.
All right. Thanks, Srini. As you can see, our growing differentiation not only drove a strong start to the year, but also gives us the confidence to increase our guidance across multiple fronts. Starting with accounts. we are raising our expectation for total postpaid net account additions to be between $950,000 and $1,050 million on the strength of the underlying momentum in the business. .
Turning to service revenues. We continue to expect to deliver full year service revenue of approximately $77 billion, representing 8% growth with Q2 expectations of approximately $19 billion or up 9% year-over-year. As part of that service revenue growth, we continue to expect strong postpaid ARPA growth of between 2.5% and 3% for the full year. We are also raising our full year core adjusted EBITDA guide, which is now expected to be between $37.1 million and $37.5 billion, an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range. As part of that, we expect Q2 core adjusted EBITDA of approximately $9.4 billion, up 10% year-over-year.
Our expectation for full year 2026 cash CapEx remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion as we continue to invest to further differentiate the network. And we now expect adjusted free cash flow to be between $18.1 billion and $18.7 billion for the full year, also an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range.
And finally, last week, we announced we are increasing our 2026 stockholder return authorization by up to $3.6 billion to a total authorization of up to $18.2 billion -- and as always, we will continue to follow our disciplined capital allocation philosophy. To sum it all up, we continue to see strong momentum in the business and cannot be more excited for the future.
So with that, I'll now turn the call back to Cathy to begin the Q&A.
Thanks, Peter. All right, let's get to your questions. [Operator Instructions] We will start with a question on the phone. Operator, first question, please.
The first question today comes from Craig Moffett with MoffettNathanson.
2. Question Answer
Let me start with the reports that you're considering a merger with Deutsche Telekom. Can you talk about the logic behind that and as well as the logistics, would that require a vote of the majority of the minority among Board members as independents and exactly how would that work? And would there be any premium for U.S. shareholders? .
Thanks, Craig. Let me pick that up. As a matter of policy, we don't comment on market rumors or speculation nor is there anything specific to comment on anyway. However, the article has raised a lot of questions inbound on governance. We've looked into the governance and what I've been told is, hypothetically, if someone were to ever consider such a transaction reported in the article, that would specifically require a separate approval process by disinterested shareholders, what many of you refer to as majority of the minority.
The next question comes from Sam McHugh with BNP. .
On the fiber JV you announced today, I just wonder if you've seen much movement in kind of the bid-ask spread on 5 assets as we started to see maybe fiber ARPUs come under pressure. I don't know if some of the commentary around broadband growth and pricing impact your appetite for more fiber JV going forward.
Thanks, Sam. And as you well know and as I've read in all of your stamp surveys. The reason we're doing fiber is much more because we see an equity value creation opportunity rather than the myth of convergence. And that sort of drives the way we think about these assets.
So when you think about things like beta ask spread or multiples or compression and the rest, each of these assets is a unique case. The way we think about it is, do we believe that this asset has a strong likelihood of giving us our target IRRs? And those are in the double-digit level. And we look at each of these very, very specifically because as all of you guys know, -- each of these assets operates in a specific geography, operates in a specific competitive environment in a specific pricing environment.
So it's really hard to give you an overall sense of our bid-ask spreads changing, are multiples compressing, what's happening with pricing, et cetera, et cetera. What we know so far is our fiber JV is the ones we've launched so far are well on track. They're delivering exactly what we expected.
The lift from the T-Mobile brand and our distribution is completely in line with our expectations. And on the new JVs that we've done, we are very confident of our double-digit IRRs. That's kind of the criteria we'll use going forward as well. There is no magic number we're chasing on homes passed because I could kind of put fiber on the street and claim multiple homes passed. We're looking for places where we can create true equity value. And that will drive -- do we have appetite for cases which create true equity value and which tick the box for us in terms of actually being an opportunity that is monetarily sound, Yes. Are we going to chase a home sparse number? Absolutely not.
The next question comes from Sean Diffley with Morgan Stanley. Sean, your line is open. You may ask your question. .
Let's move on to the next one.
The next question comes from John Hodulik with UBS.
Srini, could you comment on the competition you're seeing in the sort of postpaid market. I think both of your competitors have talked about sort of less handset subsidies going forward and ride when you do what they saw as a sort of less competitive market as they look out.
So just any thoughts on that side. And then on the broadband, the greater than $500,000 was a great number. And sounds like you got some real strength in fixed warehouse. How does the runway look there? Do you expect similar growth this year as we saw last year, and any issues sort of constraining the network in terms of your ability to grow that bid?
Thanks for that question, John. So first on competition and the broader way we think about competing in this market. I think sometimes we tend to over-rotate on promotions and specific subsidies and how all of that is playing out. In the end, the direction of flow gets driven by differentiation. And this is where our unique position of kind of best network, best value, best experience and therefore, no trade-offs for the customer really drives traffic in our direction.
And that's what drove not just the 6% growth in accounts year-on-year, but also the near 4% growth in ARPA. That's the fundamental way we think of competing. Now all of that happened in a quarter where I'd say January was particularly competitive and particularly heavy in 1 dimensional competition based on subsidies. I think Feb and March and going into April, we've seen some cooling down of that environment. But through that quarter, we focused very much on what differentiates us, and that differentiator is a much broader set of things than purely subsidy.
And the way we think of it, and you saw a lot of our advertising, it was about savings you make every day rather than savings, you simply make at the point you get a phone. It was about our network. It was about that more rounded broad proposition. And then we decide how hard and heavy we go based on CLVs, right? That ultimately is the test of how much volume we want in any quarter in the context of our overall guidance. That should give you some sense of the competitive dynamic. But Mike, I don't know if you wanted to add anything specifically on the subsidy section. .
Yes. No, I think you've got exactly right, Srini. I mean the way that we think about this is customers -- we're providing customers the most important technology in their lives that they use every single day. And so how through both best network, best experience and best value, can we prove that to customers every single day. Not once every 1,000 days when they're replacing their phone. And so that's where you've really seen us focus is having a great overall value message for our customers where they can save more with T-Mobile than anywhere else.
In fact, $3,800 T-Mobile customers save relative to competitors over the last 5 years. And they can get a suite of benefits that they only get because they're T-Mobile customers. And these are benefits that really matter. They're not throwaway benefits, free Netflix subscription et cetera. So I think the results that you saw in Q4 as well as in Q1 really demonstrate that, that's important to customers, and that's why they're choosing us at the rate that they are right.
Your question on broadband, let me just touch on the big picture, and be great if you can talk about some of the stats we're seeing in terms of how many more users and usage. We're very confident on the runway on fixed wireless access. Just to give you a sense of this, right? We said we would get to 15 million customers by 2030, a couple of months ago. Now how do we get to that $15 million?
We basically divide the country to almost 36 million expense order of magnitude, -- and we look at a Hexben level, we forecast the level of wireless traffic and what is left is really fallow capacity. And then we subject that fallow capacity to saying, yes, we've got that fallow capacity, but let's put a reasonable market share on how much we can get to in fixed wireless access.
And then we commit to a number. And that calculation we did for 2030, remember, assumes we buy no further spectrum. It doesn't assume 6G. It doesn't assume any further spectral efficiency improvement. That's the basis on which we got to the $15 million. We're tracking strong to that. And this quarter was another demonstration of it. So we feel very good at it, but about it, but Andre.
No. As Srini said, I think, one, we're very confident about the 2030 number. I think 1 of the reasons that makes us very comfortable is what we're seeing today in reality. So not just the outstanding commercial performance we've had for many quarters in a row. But also the fact that all the leading indicators in terms of capacity and customer satisfaction continue to go up.
We continue to increase our NPS, the average speeds our customers have on our product continue to go up quarter-over-quarter. -- the new routers we just launched, as we mentioned in February, have even higher speed than the existing routers. And all of this, we've done while increasing 80% the number of customers we have on the network in 3 years. So -- as Srini said, we plan very carefully. We have a very detailed plan for the next 4 to 5 years in terms of the capacity of the business and beyond that time frame to make sure that this is completely sustainable long, long term, and we're seeing it come through every day, every quarter for our customers. So very, very confident on the runway we have. .
The next question comes from Michael Rollins with Citi. .
Two topics, please. The first one, I was curious if you could unpack the contributors to the ARPU growth of about 4% year-over-year in terms of price actions of curing, lines per account, the broadband update, just some color on what you're seeing there. .
And then second, just curious if you can share what was happening with the postpaid account churn on a year-over-year basis. And given the comments of what you're just describing competitively in the answer to an earlier question, is that something that actually started to get better maybe through the quarter and into the second quarter?
Great. Thanks, Mike. Let me pick up the postpaid account churn piece, and I'll hand off to Peter for the ARPA piece. So postpaid account churn is doing exactly what we expected. The -- when you look at the underlying postpaid phone churn, that was pretty stable. It was up about 3 bps. Now there's 2 things that are worth explaining, given this is the first time we're reporting this metric.
One, why is account churn higher than line churn? And two, why has account churn gone up more than line churn. The simple answer is basically math. Now there's kind of 2 groups of customers who churn more than the average. One is new customers; and the second is broadband-only customers. Now the reality is the weighting of these customers in accounts is higher than the weighting in lines. Now that's obvious when you look at broadband alone customers, but also with newer customers, we just haven't had enough time to grow that relationship.
So the lines per account with newer customers tends to be less. So the 2 groups that churn quicker than the average have a higher weighting in accounts than they do in lines. That's why account churn is higher than line churn. Why is it increased more than line churn? Again, it's pure math. It's simply that our fastest-growing business by a long distance is broadband, which structurally, and we've talked about this before, has higher churn than wireless.
So those -- it's really a math that explains the postpaid account churn. Line churn looks great. We're really happy with where we are. Account churn is doing exactly what we thought it would do. Peter? .
Yes. Probably just to add to that. I think 1 of your questions, Mike, was, did it get better in March? Well, I think you've heard some of our competitors kind of cherry pick the, well, March is better than December. Well, that's every single year. So yes, of course, we saw churn improvement in March -- in the last week -- and 2:34 a.m. on Tuesday, was even better. .
In terms of ARPA growth, it was all the factors, and that's the beauty of this model. Certainly, if you recall back last year, we did a round of rate plan optimizations that impacted particularly Q2 of last year. So you see a little bit of year-over-year impact on the comparatives in Q1 of this year from that. But it's also continually deepening the relationships, so an increase in lines per account, and that's across all product categories, the continued success that we're having with rate plan self-selection up the tiers continues to be at over 60% of new account lines are on our premium tier rate plans. Value-add service attached. So it's really every element of the equation that we've been talking about before that's driving the ARPA increase.
So again, Q2 will be a little bit different because Q1 didn't have the impact of the rate plan optimizations, but continually for the full year, we're seeing strength of 2.5% to 3% growth. Remember, that includes the anticipated dilutive impacts of U.S. Cellular and the acquisitions of Metronet and Lumos. So the underlying organic growth of ARPA is even stronger than that 2.5% to 3%.
Thanks, Mike. All right. We're going to try Sean Diffley again in the queue. Sean, are you on this time?
Was hoping you could further elaborate on the inference at the edge opportunity, which you referenced. I think you said you signed a figure AI deal. But maybe just flesh out, T-Mobile is better positioned than peers to capture this? Is it your network architecture, AI RAN, your spectrum position? And how should we think about the business model? Is this something where you'd have to buy GPUs. And how big could this revenue opportunity be? .
Yes. So let me deal with the second part of the question, and then I'll hand over to Dr. John Saw. We might be here for a while. So just on the -- here's the vision of this, right, for me, do we need to buy GPUs, et cetera. So we're going to be -- we've already started introducing large amounts of AI into our network.
And as we move closer towards Iran, in fact, even doing things like winter storm fan, you saw AI in our network being a big reason why things like antenna tilt being done automatically, things like optimizing our network, a self-healing network in many ways, is not kind of science fiction, it's reality. It's the way our network runs every day. Now as we do more and more AI in our network and as we build for more and more AI in our network, we will be building compute into our network.
And just as in FWA, we have the concept of fallow capacity. As we build more AI into our network, we will generate a bunch of fallow compute, especially at the edge. Now the fallow compute plus low latency creates an incredible opportunity because if you're thinking of scale, automation -- it's impossible to do that without low latency.
Just think of robots running into each other or even we're still somebody trying to do remote heart surgery without low latency, right? Low latency has to be essential to any form of robotics or automation that you do. So the combination of low latency as well as follow compute, is what makes us excited about the opportunity.
It's too early to size TAM. It depends on who you're listening to at any point in time, but all estimates of this market are very large. But John, do you want to talk about architecture and how we're different.
Sure, Sean. And by the way, we are highly optimistic with the prospects of physical AI just because I think when intelligence moves into the rail world, right, you're going to start seeing a shift from generative AI to physical AI. And when objects move that has built an intelligence, we believe that we have a big role to play. So we are more than prepared to take this on and we saw this coming a while back.
So the big advantage we have is our 5G advanced network that we have built. And we are the only ones that have rolled out 5G advantage nationwide. And with that, we have a bunch of innovations that we have developed with 5G advance to increase spectral efficiencies and capacity like especially for the uplink, which is really needed for physical AI, like things like uplink transmit switching, higher transmit power and uplink MIMO, right?
This is why the latest iPhones and the latest Samsung phones actually perform best on our network. Now we didn't build a 5G advanced network just for faster phones. We actually built it for physical AI and with an eye to the future, right? And now that we have a 5G advanced network we can take on the extra capabilities that is needed to support etch inferencing for physical AI better than anybody else. And we believe that we have a multiyear advantage over the competition for this. .
Next question comes from Kannan Venkateshwar with Barclays.
So make in the broadband business, when we think about the model you guys seem to be adopting. It's obviously a capital-efficient model of joint ventures combined with iWireless -- but the trade of, I guess, is there's also some embedded inefficiencies of managing all these JVs, and it's not clear what the economics are, if it's symmetrical, but would be great to get some sense of that as well. But the bigger question is -- is there a path here where maybe you look at more scaled deals instead of trying to scale this in bits and pieces across multiple JVs .
Yes. Let me pick that up and Andre, you can add on to it. -- so I think it's important to understand scale in the context of fiber. Scale in the context of fiber comes from 2 things. a national brand and local scale. Because scale and fiber is about local zoning, local permitting, local expertise in terms of digging trenches -- the fact that you have it in 1 geography means nothing for the next geography you go into because quite often zoning and permitting are completely different things.
The important thing for us is local scale. We are not chasing a random number of x million spread all over. We're very focused on where we are creating that local scale so that we're meaningful in that community so that we can drive the right economics. To your point on scale deals, I think there's kind of 2 or 3 different cuts to it, right?
Are we interested in a scale deal purely for homes passed on fiber? -- no? Are we interested in mixed ILEC and different deals, no, we want to be first to fiber, and there would be exceptions where we'd look at it where some part of the footprint potentially has some has some nonfirst to fiber. But on the whole, we want to focus on first of fiber and driving the economics out of that. And that's really the coherent strategy that we're executing. FWA, of course, is a national product. Andre, do you want to add anything to that in terms of...
Yes. I think to just to underpin a couple of things you said, Srini. One, as we said before, we look at all of these partnerships, all of these JVs from a creation of shareholder value perspective. And that also includes making sure we have partners that are experts in deploying fiber, experts in managing this deployment business but also have strong, as Srini said, local footprint and the ability to build in an efficient manner in each of these geographies.
So we're not looking at master plan on having fiber everywhere. We're looking at geographically with each of the partners, where does it make sense to build, where we can create value out of these builds. And the second thing, as Srini said, which is very important for us is also partners that bring the right technology. So when we look at each of these assets, it's very important for us that these are pure-play fiber assets.
We've done it with the first 2 deals with Lumos and Metronet and we've done it now with these 2 JVs that we set up. On your other question on just addressing it on inefficiencies, the way we've built this is to make sure that we can take the advantages of scale where that scale is meaningful. And that scale is meaningful in distribution. That scale is meaningful 1 brand. That's why T-Mobile has taken over all of the retail consumer operations for these assets.
That scale is also important in terms of, for example, the way we look at internal processes and IT. And the way we've integrated the JVs is we have a common IT platform that runs across all of the JVs that allows us, from the perspective of our customers, our front line and our processes that these JVs all look like 1 single operation from our perspective and from our customers' perspective.
So we take scale where scale matters, where it's more important to have local knowledge and local scale, we will take that. Thank you.
Kannan just struck me that your reference to large deals potentially was you asking the question I get quite asked quite often, which is the cable story. And I think I've said this at least a couple of times before, we're not going to go do scale for scale sake. Specifically, cable is not something we're interested in. We see our strength as attacking incumbents rather than becoming an incumbent. We see a huge opportunity to attack incumbents across fiber and FWA. That will be our key play.
Thank you, Kannan. We're going to go over to X from Walt Paycheck. T-Mobile is packaging Starlink as a backup for businesses using 5G Internet branding at super broadband good sign for T-Mobile SpaceX relationship, MVNO Next?
Thanks, Walt. Let me deal with some of that and then hand over to Andre on some of the pieces on super broadband. So first, I think it's -- I know everyone around this call gets it, but this is something that gets confused quite often, which is SpaceX, Starlink, -- are we talking broadband? Are we talking direct to sell? We see them as 2 completely different businesses. we see the broadband business as actually a substitution to broadband, especially in the rural areas.
We see direct to sell very much as a complementary product -- and I think if you listen carefully to some of the things, SpaceX talked about at MWC as well, they were very clear in positioning it as a complementary product. Let me deal with the MVNO question, and then I can pass on to Andre on super broadband.
So first on direct to sell as a whole. Look, our partnership with SpaceX is very strong. We've worked closely with them to really invent an entire category. And that's been putting an end to dead zones. We're pleased with that. Most of the usage we're seeing is a national box -- and if anything, courtesy of the great network that Dr. Saw has built, we're seeing a lot less usage than we were originally thinking. But it's a great complementary product.
And as you look at the future, -- we're seeing multiple other space providers show up. And the way this will evolve, we think is as a complementary product, it will become more and more of a standard feature of a whole set of offerings. So in some sense, less differentiated. And we're good with that at the Un-carrier, because this is our history. We go out there, innovate, create a breakthrough, solve a customer problem and then the others follow. And while they're following, we're on to our next big thing. So that's how we see DTC as a whole. On MVNOs, we've got a very clear philosophy or approach to MVNOs.
MVNOs make sense for us when it's a TAM expansion. A TAM expansion happens because it's a new customer base that we couldn't target earlier. It's a new channel. I mean an example of this is what we did with cable focused on SMB. It's not obvious to me how an MVNO with SpaceX or any other LEO operator fulfills those conditions. Andre, on Super broadband? .
Thanks, Srini. On super broadband, as Srini said, one, just a grounding element. I know as Srini said that most people -- or all of the people on the call understand this, but just as a grounding element -- this is a broadband product. So it's not a direct to sell product, and it's B2B only. So we see an explain a little bit why we see that this is an opportunity in B2B, but we don't see any translation of this into the consumer space.
First, 2 things. One, this product is only possible because it's anchored on our 5G FWA product and the best network in America. And that's the core, core anchor of the product. Second thing is what we're bringing to the market today and we announced this morning is anchored on an innovation by T-Mobile, which is our ability to within 1 single device.
And within 1 single network policy to be able to aggregate and coordinate between 5G FWA, for businesses and the second connection, which in this case is satellite. And that allows customers to solve 3 problems that businesses feel today.
Number 1 is reliability and redundancy, which this product has incorporated by default. Second thing is coverage. Obviously, the reason why we're using satellite and StarLink is that allows us to provide the service nationwide in every single ZIP code in America, which is a challenge we see some of our customers facing. And third is that it's very simple from a customer perspective, because this means that to cover all your locations with primary and redundancy, you only need 1 contract, 1 provider and 1 management platform.
And so we're very excited about this. If you remember, when we talked in February, I said that business Internet was 1 of the areas where we were looking into where we thought and believe there was opportunity and that we were going to announce something in a couple of months, and we did so today. Thank you.
Thanks, Andre. Operator, let's go back to the queue.
The next question from the phone comes from Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs.
Just 2, if I could. First, just on cost synergies. How are you progressing against the $3 billion target exiting 2027? And -- how much have you kind of realized to date in 2026? And where are the key sources of those cost savings come from? And then just as a housekeeping item on the JVs. Anything you could share as it relates to how much you're contributing to the JVs or how much they should contribute to EBITDA on a run rate basis once it closes?
Peter, do you want to .
Yes, happy to take it. Let me start with the JVs. Much like we did with the last ones. From an investment perspective, we laid out in the press release that it's about $2.7 billion of investment across the JVs when they close.
And at the time that they close, we'll certainly give you a more wholesome update as appropriate then around -- or what does it mean from a subscriber perspective, increase in our target fiber households past figures and all of those things. But it's a little early because they haven't closed -- so please hold on that. In terms of the cost synergies, I'm glad you asked just 2 months after we laid it out for you on, how is the progress going and what are you doing out there? And frankly, it's going really well. And remember what we laid out at Capital Markets Day, is the source of synergies are across a number of fronts, inclusive of customer care, retail, but you also have back-office efficiencies from AI and transfer formation -- and we're seeing great progress.
I would say, the $2.7 billion that we laid out for you exiting 2027, certainly is on track. I would say most of that will come towards the last part of 2026 and then fully into 2027 and beyond. And by the way, there's a lot more runway and opportunity than $2.7 billion. It's just that's what we see our way to phasing through to '27, leaving more runway into 2028.
Probably not a lot of metrics I'll give you in the intervening 2 months that have created a lot of updates. But we are seeing great progress on many of them. And one, for example, is just the use of the Chatbot, an AI-powered Chatbot that is actually capturing a lot of customer questions and addressing them in a great uncarrier fashion that you'd expect and actually containing about 60% of those already. So just another proof point on the way as we're going.
The next question comes from Peter Supino with Wolfe Research.
A question on the cost of getting new customers. Just running some simple math in your income statement, the cost of equipment sales versus equipment revenue produced a greater loss than a year ago by a few hundred million dollars. And if I look at sort of a rolling 4-quarter average, that number for the last couple of years, it's gradually climbing. So wondering what the underlying trend in the businesses that's driving up that equipment loss? And if it's positive or are growth, I wonder if we should expect that to to continue .
Yes. There's a number of things there. If you just focus on that 1 line item, and then I'll step back and kind of give you a view of the business. And that is a few things. One, you just have a larger base. So you'll notice that our upgrade rate was similar -- and of course, our acquisitions were even higher as we see more share switching to T-Mobile. And so in a world where you do have device-centric promotionality that is driving switching as well as upgrades on a smart value-accretive CLV basis one, you have a larger base, kind of doing the same upgrades you're capturing more acquisitions. So naturally, you're just going to have a higher dollar amount there that's associated with that.
To your point, though, there is an element of we are able -- because remember, we very smartly tend to design. Our most premium device promotions to be associated with our most premium device plans. And customers see that as a great trade-off, inclusive of all the other value that is incorporated in those premium rate plans. And so you do see ARPA increases as a result of that. In fact, we mentioned that we continue to see over 60% of lines on new accounts, taking our premium plans.
So you really have to step back and say, okay, not just that 1 line item, which I think this same dynamic will continue to play out on that 1 line item. But what is it doing to totality of the business? And how is that doing? And I know, Peter, you've looked at this more deeply. And I don't think Q1 could have been a better demonstration of the things we've been talking about for a long time now, which is if you invest in what is your product, I've heard others in the industry say you don't need to invest in your network. It's not important.
And I just -- I mean kudos to them if that's what they believe. -- it's our product. It's what we sell to customers. And the differentiation that we're starting to see with consumer sentiment now following what the actual network progress is, the value that we embed in our plans as well as the experiences mean that it's not just devices that make customers come here. You see us be very thoughtful around the promotions around devices that we do, inclusive of linking up to our top-tier rate plans in most instances. But you see the flow of customers coming to us, because it's not the devices. It's these 3 other elements.
And not only did you see that in top line KPIs in terms of service revenue of 11%, 4x the next nearest competitor, core EBITDA of 12% and the all-important free cash flow generation. But if you double-click down like you do so often into the next level of KPIs you see a tremendously stark difference developing in Q1. And it's 1 of those that is as a result of all this investment and differentiation that we've done mean if you take a look at what we delivered, 217,000 postpaid account net additions up year-over-year and ARPA growth of 3.9%.
That's what delivers the top line service revenue that's so differentiated. If you look at Verizon, for example, they lost 127,000 postpaid net accounts and their ARPU was almost down 2% year-over-year. And so if you -- I know they didn't do this for you, but if you somehow back out what you believe the frontier service revenue contribution was from M&A, their business -- the core business ex frontier actually declined in service revenue mean that's fascinatingly start to show you, by the way, why accounts and ARPA such an important metric to focus on in terms of value creation.
Similarly, when you look at AT&T, they just delivered the highest yet again, the highest year-over-year postpaid phone churn increase in the industry, proving that all the convergence talk is just that, it's talk, but also more importantly, they had declines in postpaid phone ARPU sequentially and year-over-year. And if you look at what they just did with contract assets in Q1, where -- that was a $300 million increase in terms of pulling costs off the P&L and putting them on the balance sheet.
If you adjust for that, EBITDA was down year-over-year there. So it just shows you, if you step 1 level down, you see the formula here that's way more than a device promotionality formula is that best network, best value, best experience means customers are choosing to change their whole relationship coming to T-Mobile, deepening that relationship vis-a-vis ARPA and our ability then because of the efficient way that we run, to translate that not only into core EBITDA leadership growth, but also that all-important free cash flow growth.
It just -- I think Q1 started showing you a lot more of what we've promised with this differentiation would come and that is historically different in terms of financial performance as well. So sorry, letting me let me go off that because it was just not equipment revenue and COGS, you really have to step back and see the broad picture of value creation here. So I appreciate you letting me go on, Peter.
Next question comes from Sebastiano Petti with JPMorgan. .
Either Peter or Srini, I guess, for either you, could you see the increase in the capital allocation for the year of $3.6 billion, $18.2 billion. You had the accelerated share repurchase in the first quarter that you announced, I guess, help us think shares have come in here a little bit, how are you thinking about perhaps the appetite for additional share repurchases or an accelerated buyback program here? And then related to the postpaid phone account -- postpaid account metric, -- great to see the upgrade. Maybe help us think about where you are in the process of integration on the U.S. cellular base and whether that perhaps, but to maybe some of that churn increase that you talked about earlier on, the math, Trine, whether or not -- where are you in that migration or integration in that basin, when should we anticipate churn perhaps converges with the legacy based.
Peter, maybe you pick up the first bit and John do an update on your...
Absolutely. So on shareholder returns, you just saw us execute in Q1 an acceleration and delivered $4.9 billion in share buybacks for a significant cumulative amount of share buyback and dividends that have been returned to date under the program. And you saw us more excitingly just recently announced that the Board authorized us to increase up to the $3.6 billion.
And the way we're going to approach it is the way we've always approached this, which is I'm not going to talk about the daily trading dynamics and what we're thinking about and all of that for obvious reasons. But really importantly, it's -- we're focused on where do we see this company and its discount relative to intrinsic value. And of course, we'll follow our capital allocation philosophy, investing in the core business, investing in value-accretive M&A and then its shareholder returns consisting of this very balanced dividend and share buyback approach.
But that's how we're going to approach it. And so I'm not going to be able to say more in terms of what we're thinking about and how and when and trading dynamics there. But I think you saw us execute in Q1 and very smartly and thoughtfully based on where we believe the intrinsic value of the company is and the discount relative to that is going to guide us in a lot of these instances. .
Yes. Then I'll pick up on Sebastino. I'll pick up on the U.S. Cellular integration piece. As you guys know, we closed the U.S. Cellular transaction on August 1 of last year. And we stopped promoting U.S. Cellular to new customers right before the holidays last year. So we unified everything behind the T-Mobile brand, even in U.S. Cellular branded stores. we're acquiring all new accounts under the T-Mobile brand.
And to the premise of your question, we're now just now beginning into the final kind of big throws of the customer migration. We've done a lot of the network-oriented migration that's behind us. now we're handling the customer migration. It's a relatively small base, 4 million customers or so. And we've got recent experience with this, given that we integrated the Sprint base back in 2020 to 2023.
So a lot of learnings that we're applying to this overall customer migration effort in terms of communications and how we're mapping customers over, making sure they're getting all the benefits and understanding the full T-Mobile value proposition. All of that is going extremely well.
I could not be more satisfied with how it's going in the U.S. cellular marketplace. So we're going to be working through that over the spring, the summer and the fall. I think we'll substantially have it wrapped up by this year in terms of the overall integration effort. And then of course, what that's leaving with is a incredibly bolstered network advantage in smaller markets and rural areas where we're continuing to do quite well.
You heard Srini talk about where our share position is now in smaller markets, rural areas of 24%. But -- the other big thing that we're doing in smaller markets in rural areas is continuing to drive that wind share in postpaid switching. We're leading now 12 quarters in a row. So when you think about the majority of 2023, 2024, 2025 and so far in continuing to lead that position, enormous runway ahead of us and really fortified by the overall U.S. cellular assets that we've incorporated into the T-Mobile network. .
Yes. Just 1 thing, Sebastino, just to clarify, -- the math I was laying out about account churn. U.S. Cellular is not a contributor to that. So that behaved exactly like we expected it. This was more kind of weighted average math camp. Appreciate that. .
The next question comes from Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc Capital Markets. .
I think the last couple of quarters, and it was sort of asked, but in the last couple of quarters, you guys gave an organic ARPA growth I was hoping you guys could give that organic ARPU growth this quarter. And then just looking at the guide for service revenue in 2Q, it seems like the trend on ARPA growth needs to come down something with a 1 -- and I was wondering if I got that right. And then it just seems like, again, going -- looking at your guidance to hit $77 billion, we need to reaccelerate that. I want to just confirm that all of that was correct and get your thoughts there. .
Yes. I can go on -- you're absolutely right. On the ARPA piece, but remember, it's a remnant of the fact that we had rate plan optimizations that benefited Q2 of last year, but not Q1 of last year. So you had that being an impact over the year-over-year. So yes, when you think about Q2, I think you're absolutely right in terms of the numbers, probably near 2% on a year-over-year ARPA basis there, simply because of the dynamics of you have the rate plan optimizations and you have remember the dilutive effect that was long anticipated around both U.S. Cellular as well as MetroNet and Lumos, which were taken on and impact Q2 of this year, but not, of course, Q2 of last year.
And then we will see an acceleration for the second half of the year back. So this is all just math dynamics here. In terms of ARPA and giving you organic versus inorganic, we moved away from that primarily because I just don't have a great answer for you. It would all be subject to Art. So for example, as we brought on a U.S. Cellular customer and they expanded their relationship with us post merger, what do I do there? Is that organic or inorganic?
Or when we had fiber-only customers come on board, and then expand their relationship and take on phone and other products, how do I allocate that away -- and so we're not in the business of creating art here. We want to be very transparent with you. And I think at this point, because of how we've accelerated some of the U.S. cellular elements of it, and these nuances, we're really not giving organic or inorganic ARPA for that reason.
Operator, let's do 1 last question, please. .
The last question today comes from Timothy Horan with Oppenheimer. .
With basically the highest quality service out there in almost every metric, you're at a 20% price discount, give or take, versus your peers. I mean, can you get the pricing to parity over time? I mean with the quality service, you might not even impact subscriber growth at all, but how are you thinking about pricing longer term? .
Yes. Pick that up. The way we think about pricing power and pricing as a whole is ARPA growth, right? We don't tend to fix it on 1 number. We love the fact that our back book is actually at a lower price than our front book.
We simply put that our existing customers pay less than you. That's rare in an annuity business, and it creates incredible dynamics. -- right? Because that means as you bring on customers you're growing ARPU as well as volume.
You're growing value as well as volume. And when you have this position of having best network, best experience and best value, that creates a position of no trade-offs. So we are going to protect our position on best value. We're not going to look at it kind of with 1 variable, which is what is our ARPU versus other people's ARPU or what is our ARPU with others. We will, from time to time, do thoughtful moves on our pricing. They are typically more for more moves where what we end up doing is give our customers more because a lot of the plans, for example, would be outdated. So what we will end up doing is bringing them up to date with newer, better plans and that may or may not come with a price change.
But we don't see a world where we look at a 20% discount and go, let's go back that pricing up and create a change because we think getting titrating the volume and value making sure that we stay with this position of best network, best value, best experience is what creates long-term shareholder value, long-term customer loyalty. It's what creates the number I love the most, our NPS, 20% ahead of everyone else.
All right. Thanks, Tim, and thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We're looking forward to connecting with you again soon. In the meantime, if you have other questions, please contact the Investor Relations or media departments. Thank you.
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T-Mobile US — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
T-Mobile US — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Starkes Q1: T‑Mobile erhöht Guidance, starkes Nutzerwachstum, ARPA‑Anstieg und erweiterte Rückkäufe.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Postpaid‑Nettozugänge: 217.000 (+6% YoY)
- Postpaid‑Service‑Revenue: +15% YoY; Gesamt‑Service‑Revenue: +11% YoY
- Average Revenue per Account (ARPA): +3,9% YoY
- Core adjusted EBITDA: +12% YoY (bereinigtes Ergebnis vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen)
- Free‑Cash‑Flow‑Marge / Rückflüsse: 24%; ~$6 Mrd an Dividenden/Buybacks in Q1; Rückkaufautor. erhöht um $3,6 Mrd auf $18,2 Mrd
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Netzdifferenzierung: Fokus auf "bestes Netz, bestes Preis‑Leistungs‑Verhältnis, beste Erfahrung" (NPS 45), das Wechselkunden antreibt.
- Breitband‑Strategie: FWA‑Wachstum +0,5 Mio netto; gezielte Fiber‑JVs zur wertorientierten Expansion (Double‑digit IRR‑Erwartung).
- Technologie & AI: Erste netznative AI (Live‑Translation), Partnerschaft mit Figure AI für Robotik‑Konnektivität — langfristiger Aufbau von Edge‑Compute‑Fähigkeiten.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Accounts‑Guide: Erhöht auf ~950.000–1.050.000 Postpaid‑Nettozugänge (Jahresbasis)
- Service‑Revenue: FY≈$77 Mrd (~+8%); Q2≈$19 Mrd (+9% YoY)
- ARPA‑Erwartung: Postpaid ARPA +2,5–3% für 2026
- EBITDA / FCF: Core adj. EBITDA $37,1–37,5 Mrd (+$0,1 Mrd an der Untergrenze); Q2 EBITDA ≈$9,4 Mrd; Adjusted FCF $18,1–18,7 Mrd
- CapEx: Unverändert ≈$10 Mrd; Risiko: Wettbewerbsdruck, Fiber‑Execution, frühe Monetarisierung von "physical AI".
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Deutsche Telekom‑Fusionsgerüchte: Management kommentiert keine Marktgerüchte; weist darauf hin, dass eine solche Transaktion separate Genehmigungen disinteressierter Aktionäre (Majority‑of‑the‑minority) erfordern würde.
- Fiber‑JV‑Economics: Fokus auf lokale Skalierung und Wertschöpfung; Ziel sind double‑digit IRRs, kein blindes Homes‑passed‑Target.
- Edge‑AI & Business‑Case: Figure AI‑Deal demonstriert technische Differenz; TAM und Geschäftsmodell sind jedoch noch nicht genau quantifiziert.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Q1 bestätigt die Strategie: Differenzierung treibt Wachstum, Management hebt Guides an und erhöht Kapitalrückflüsse. Anleger profitieren von Umsatz‑, ARPA‑ und EBITDA‑Momentum; Überwachungspunkte bleiben Fiber‑JV‑Execution, Wettbewerbsreaktionen und die konkrete Monetarisierung von Edge‑AI.
T-Mobile US — Morgan Stanley Technology
1. Question Answer
Okay. Hello, everybody. I'm Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley's telecom and media analyst. For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. Excited to welcome back to the conference, but for the first time up on stage the CEO of T-Mobile, Srini Gopalan. Srini, thank you so much for coming.
Thanks for having me here, Ben. And before we get started, I'm supposed to draw our attention to that safe harbor statement, which I think has disappeared now. Yes.
There it is.
With that in mind, especially the forward-looking statements.
All right, we'll do that. So what I think we're basically, what, just over 4 months into your tenure as CEO. Business is obviously performing well. Maybe talk a little bit about your strategic priorities for the company. What are you and the team really focused on right now at T-Mobile?
So look, where we are today, we're a great business. And the foundation of that has been differentiation. And that's most visible when you look at our NPS, right? Our NPS is 20%, 25% higher than anyone in the industry. And the source of that differentiation and the foundation we're building on is the fact that we have the best network, which hasn't always been true, but is today, the best value and the best experience. And that fundamentally is our differentiation. So when customers come to us, they don't need to make a trade-off, right? They get all 3. So we're sort of breaking the laws of physics in this industry that if you get the best network, you have to pay more for it. If you get the best value, you get a network and experience that sucks. That's no longer true. You can get all 3 in the same place. So that's the foundation we're building from. And so if you talk about kind of what is my focus. It's really widening that gap, widening that differentiation because that by itself creates unparalleled growth, which then tumbles down to financials. If you talk about kind of how do we widen that differentiation and the stuff I spend most of my time thinking about.
On the network side, we're clearly the 5G leaders. But we won't stop there. We're pushing ahead 6G, we will be the leaders. We will stay 3 to 4 years ahead of the rest of the industry in innovation and what we bring to the network.
On value, we will continue to zealously guard our value position, and that's a value position, which is not just about kind of the cheapest freest phone, but that's value every day of your life, right?
And on the experience side, historically, our experience has been driven by incredible people and an incredible culture and a willingness to kind of lean in and actually solve customer pain points. We now have the ability to complement that with the best tech, and we demoed some of that with stuff like live translate, but it's also the progress we've made on our digital transformation.
Now all of that together, best network, best value, best experience and widening that gap creates enormous growth opportunity. Whether that's in wireless, with network seekers with SMRA, whether that's in broadband with the incredible performance we're seeing with fixed wireless and also fiber or whether that's in the enterprise segment of wireless. And we haven't even begun talking about stuff like financial services, physical edge AI and the opportunities that opens out. So it's double down on widening differentiation which in turn gives us unparalleled growth. And remember, we don't have legacy businesses that we need to hide under the carpet, right? This is a pure growth business. And that then tumbles into exceptional financials. That's what I'm spending my time on.
So let's talk about the financials. So I guess it was, what, October of '24. I think you guys laid out sort of a longer-term growth plan. Last month, you gave us a halftime check-in, I think you called it.
Yeah.
Because you're a big football fan. I know as we heard. Congrats. How is the business progressing against those original plans, especially in the context of an industry that people are worried is getting more competitive?
Absolutely, when we did the update, we talked about the fact that our service revenue is kind of growing 4x as much as our competitors. Our EBITDA is growing twice as fast. And the business continues to perform really well. Q1 where it's performing exactly like we thought we would. From a volume perspective, seasonally, you should expect our Q1 performance to be pretty much in line with what you've seen in the last couple of years. And when we talk about the industry, I think sometimes we tend to get overfocused on promotions and what's happening on the latest promotion, the rest of it. But there's a direction of flow of the water, and that's heading towards us. Fundamentally, because if you're a consumer, right, you don't get best network, best value, best experience. I'm going to repeat this a few times today. Hopefully, it's consistency rather than repetition. But you don't get all those 3 in the same place. And so there's a natural choice if you're looking to switch provider, and they come to us.
You guys also for us Excel jockeys out there, made some pretty meaningful changes to your -- or planned changes to your KPIs, taking away a lot of the metrics we've enjoyed modeling for years and years in the business, shifting really to postpaid accounts. Why make that change? What is sort of -- what are you trying to accomplish in terms of refocusing the market on postpaid accounts?
The way I think of it, we've actually raised the bar on disclosure. Because what you want from us as investors and people who care about our company is that we spend time on things that matter to customers and things that matter to investors. If you look at customers, firstly, customers in this market buy accounts rather than lines. 90% of our postpaid customers belong in a multiline account. That's how customers shop. They buy accounts, right? Or these switch accounts.
When you look at investors, look, the really important question is what is your share of the CLV that's coming on to the market? That's ultimately the big question. And the closest proxy to CLV is accounts. The thing that drives CLVs accounts. And that's why we think we're raising the bar because when you -- I mean I know there are more lines to model if you had lines and all those details in it. But the reality is what you should care about is CLV, and that comes from accounts. And you look at Q4, right? We did 261,000 accounts, 962,000 lines. One of our competitors did 616,000 accounts and 26,000 lines. That's a 10:1 ratio on accounts, right? That tells you where the value is being created.
Yes. All right. Well, let's stick with accounts. You also talked about growing ARPA or revenue per account this year, 2.5% to 3%. Can you sort of unpack the drivers of that when a lot of your competitors are not talking about both in ARPU or ARPA?
I think there's 3 fundamental drivers, right? One is really structural, which is part of our best value position, which is really important in an annuity business is the value at which we bring in new customers is higher than our base. So we bring in new customers when we add new accounts right? They're accretive to ARPA, right? That, by itself, just the math of that drives ARPA growth. And that's part of what I mean by zealously guarding this best value position. When you have the lowest front book and the lowest back book, then when you bring in accounts, it becomes accretive, that's math. And the more premium plan loading, and you've seen our premium plan loading, twice what it is in the base on new customers. The more premium plan loading you have, that flows through to the base.
The second thing is when you've got an NPS, which is about 45 today, which is 20% higher than anyone else, then relationships grow as well, whether that's fixed wireless access, whether that's financial services, whether it's adding a laptop and a watch to the relationship. And that's why I obsess so much about NPS. That's the second source of ARPA growth.
And the third and smallest is, from time to time, we will look at some of our legacy rate plans account plans and thoughtfully do optimization around that. But those 3 together is what tumbles into the 2.5% to 3% ARPA growth.
Okay. We'll go into a little more detail on some of the top line drivers. But I wanted to ask you first about digitization is something you've talked about for a while, and tie it back to a $3 billion efficiency target that you guys have laid out, I think run rate by '27, if I have that right. Where are you finding the opportunity within the digitization portfolio and especially when you think about bringing AI into the cost base?
We -- like a lot of things at T-Mobile, we've thought about digitization and AI slightly differently if I'm going to shave off this much cost, right? Because our going-in position is if we fix a customer's problem, they will be happier, higher NPS customers who will then happen to call us less about stuff? Because nobody calls a care center to have a conversation. You get the occasional weirdo who does, but most of our customers call because they have a real problem. There's a problem we've created. And some of the craziness of the way businesses get managed sometimes as you create a problem and then pay agents based on how little time they take to solve the problem.
Now we're different. We start with actually solving the problem. And digital and AI for us, the way we thought about it is reimagine the experience to create a frictionless process, that will automatically flow into costs. And so when you think about -- that's why we've taken our time to say we'll build the capabilities, we'll drive customer adoption. And now we're talking of the benefits because this question, you guys have asked us form '23 onwards, right? And we've kept saying we're building the capability. We're now driving adoption and the cost will tumble down. And we're seeing that happen now, which means in the next 2 years, we will add $10 billion in service revenue, $7 billion of that will flow through to EBITDA.
And there's 4 big places where AI and digital really help us from an experience and cost perspective. The first is T-Life. T-Life, our flagship app. We've got 34 million families and businesses who we have a relationship with. 24 million of them use the app at least 4 times a month, right? That's a really sticky relationship. And T-Life is the center of a lot of our work. Right now, upgrades, which was one of the most frequent transaction in store, 73% of our upgrades are done through T-Life. 39% are done with no person involved. Now as you think about [ Adaline, ] the fact that we launched Easy Switch, which allows new customers to come in using T-Life. All of that is flowing through in terms of efficiency and kind of frictionless process.
The second big place is IntentCX, which is our AI-based model which we use to interact with customers. Everything from when you call a care center, the agent gets a whisper in their ear on what you're likely calling about. Two, when you finish the call, the wrap-up and the documentation is done through AI. Now we said we wanted to take out 75% of our calls at our Capital Markets Day. We've already taken out 50%. So we're making enormous progress there.
The third big bit is customer-driven coverage, which is our AI-based network model, which looks to build the best network, not based on some ego stack of how many POPs you're covering, but based on where customers live, work and play, that's driving enormous efficiency into our network build.
And last but not least, what we're doing with IT, no code, low code what we're doing with kind of factoring legacy code and legacy platforms. All of those 4 are big and all of them helped drive that $3 billion efficiency.
That's helpful. Why don't we talk a little bit more about the industry and the opportunity to continue to grow volumes in particular. You've talked about top 100 and your SMRA markets, how do you -- when you think about the opportunity in those today, Srini, how would you size those up and talk about your strategy to penetrate both those kinds of markets?
So think of them as -- let's talk about 2 different things there, right? One is network seekers, right. Now amongst network seekers, more and more of them are recognizing that T-Mobile is the best network. A stat that blows my mind is 4 years ago, when you looked at switchers, 14% of them part T-Mobile had the best network, something like 38% thought Verizon did. Last quarter, the 14% had grown to 26% and the 38% had come down to 28%, right? So we're in a place where more and more customers are recognizing that we're the best network. There's about 20 million families and businesses who chose AT&T or Verizon, because they thought they were the best network. And that was probably true in the 4G era. And they're today willing to pay a higher price for it. Each of those families and businesses are now getting to the place where they're realizing they can get value and network and experience in the same place. That's what's driving our growth. For example, in the top 100, New York, we're #1 by a long distance, and we're still growing share, right? That's because amongst network seekers, we're still under-indexed in New York.
In enterprises, right, where our share is low. As more and more enterprises are testing their network before they use it because wireless is such a big way of doing business today, we're finding, again, the water flowing in our direction.
SMRA, a fascinating story. We were 13% market share in 2020. Organically, that's gone up to 21%. And when you add U.S. cellular, that's at 24%. Now that's impressive, but it's only 24%, right? And part of this is you've got to start questioning this whole concept of fair share because a lot of the way analysts think about this is almost like in a commoditized industry, there are 3 players, everyone has 1/3. Now that's okay. But what if one player has best network, best value and best experience. I think you've got to challenge what the concept of fair share is. So I see a lot of growth ahead of us in top 100 SMRA and enterprise in the wireless business.
I was going to ask you if the -- if you're narrowing that perception gap as quickly as you'd like, but I think I know the answer, you'd always want to go...
Yeah. I always want to go fast.
How do you do that other than you have those great Billy Bob Thornton join. What else you got up your sleeve to try to accelerate that perception gap getting closed?
So the perception gap is closing, like I was talking about. I'd love to do it faster. I'd love to go even quicker. The reality of the way customers think about a network is the network is a personal experience. Your view of our network is your experience and the experience of your friends and family, right? And now the perception scores help because -- and NPS helps because that means more people recommend us. But ultimately, it's about your experience.
Now there are 2 things that really help with that. One is digital and the app itself. We're able to now tell you what your experience is where you live, work and play, specifically your experience. So give us where you work, we'll tell you what your experience is like. Tell us where you live, and we'll tell you what your experience is like. Tell us your commute route. Where do you go on holiday, right? And we can tell you what our network experience is like and we're happy being open about it. Because in the vast majority of cases, it will be outstanding. We're also bringing that tool kit into our retail stores. So my vision for this is when a customer walks into our retail store, our agent needs to ask them, where do you live, where do you work and where do you play? And I can tell you what our network is there and why it will be an outstanding network.
That's helpful. We were talking about the competitive environment, and we've seen the sort of investor sentiment around your stock and the space shipped a lot in the last 6 months. But it seems like there's maybe a little bit of an appreciation, at least we're hearing it in messaging from all the management teams of more rational behavior, particularly, I've been quoting you a lot. You can't make free phones more free. What's the message that you're trying to communicate to investors around sort of promotional intensity and how the competitive environment is shaping up here early in '26.
Look, I think there's kind of 2 separate questions that if I parse it out, right? One is competitive intensity, promotional intensity and the rest of it. That's something we've lived with for a while, and we like a competitive industry because there's more jump-balls, right? And that just gives us more opportunity to create more switching. This quarter hasn't been that different. It's an intense world out there. But just to give you a sense, December, which is probably the most intensely competitive month, our port-ins had a 15% higher value than our port outs, right, which means not just are we winning on volume. Importantly, we're winning on the CLV of the customers we're bringing in, which ultimately is going to be the big question.
To my comment on, you can't make free phones freer than free. It's less about promotional intensity. It's about a philosophy on value. Our view on value is really simple. It doesn't mean we're going to stop subsidies. It simply means that getting a free phone once in 24 months cannot be the definition of value you get out of the relationship with us. We have so much that we offer on a daily, monthly basis. You know the story of us running out of chicken with Wingstop, when we gave Wingstop free on T-Mobile Tuesdays. But there's Netflix there's Hulu. There's a lot of stuff on us. There's Wi-Fi, right? There's -- so we think of this as making that relationship incredibly valuable and making it a daily relationship, making it a relationship where we thank you every day for being a part of the T-Mobile family. And when we talk about value, we'd love for the conversation to be a more broader rounded conversation rather than I give you a free phone that's really free once in 24 months and then good luck for the rest of the time, and maybe I'll put up your price in the mean well, right? And that's -- so at the center of this for us is the philosophy we want to take the value.
There's certainly a view, I think, from certainly one of your competitors that they have taken too much price, right, and they're backing away. How do you approach protecting your value position with price adjustments, rate adjustments that you guys do from time to time as well.
I mean it's the same piece is growing ARPA for me. Structurally, we really like having the lowest price front work and the lowest price back book. That gives us so much flexibility to act. And the beauty of math is that when you have that, then you get an ARPA increase automatically. You don't have to go out there and kind of do a bunch of contortions and gymnastics to get there. The second piece is we value the relationship and so more product in. And then once in a while, we will look thoughtfully at rate plan optimization.
Yes. Okay. Why don't we shift gears to broadband. So you're targeting 18 million to 19 million broadband customers by 2030 now, a mix of fixed wireless and fiber. Fixed wireless, you've gone from 0 to 8 in 4 years. As you look ahead, Srini, how are you thinking about the opportunity that's still in front of you in fixed wireless?
I love the opportunity that's still in front of us. I think it's worth reminding ourselves how we actually think about this product, right? It is a fallow capacity product. And what does that mean? We have these things called hex bins, they're basically coverage areas. There's 30 million of them across the U.S. We look at each hex bin, and we forecast wireless usage in the peak hour between 7 to 9. Once we have that, we know how much of our capacity is going to be used for wireless. We then look at the rest of the capacity, and we say how many fixed wireless customers could we have here? We capped the market share that fixed wireless will get to. And that's the basis of our planning for fixed wireless. We didn't start with saying we're going to have 50 million customers. We're going to do whatever it takes to get there. We said, what does the bottom-up math give us. And we now find instead of 12 million, we can get to 15 million. Why is that? Because technology in wireless is improving all the time. As kind of the leaders in 5G advanced, we're able to squeeze more out of our spectrum. As the quality of routers improves, we're getting more, right? With our latest Gen 5 routers, we get phenomenal performance. All of that adds up to an outstanding product. I mean we've grown to 8 million customers. But just in the last 2 years, we've doubled the number of customers. We've seen a 30% increase in usage per customer, and our speeds have still gone up by 50%. And in all our assumption on 15 million customers, we're not assuming any spectrum auctions. We're not assuming any spectral efficiency from 6G, right? This is taking our carefully thought out hex bin planning, capping market share, and that gets us to 15 million. So I love the product.
That's great. And I know where you'll probably take this answer, but still to ask it. When you think about the fiber piece of the puzzle. And you guys have done a couple of joint ventures, you're building out fiber. Does any of the stuff you're seeing and you're forecasting in terms of usage and competitive dynamics suggest T-Mobile needs to have a bigger fiber footprint long term than what you've got today?
I like a bigger fiber footprint for value creation, but not defensive reasons. I don't need a bigger fiber footprint. I like a bigger fiber footprint when it fulfills 3 conditions. When the price is right, when the cost per home connected rather than the cost per home passed, is attractive. And where it's a world where we're first to fiber or near first to fiber, and therefore, we can create attractive returns. So I like it as a big opportunity to create equity value. But none of the kind of costs of convergence or number of homes passed or scale for scale's sake because fiber is not a national scale game. It's a regional scale game.
Right. Okay. Why don't we shift gears. I want to ask you about satellite connectivity and direct-to-device. You guys have been discussed a lot by other companies at this conference around T-satellite and the product you've rolled out. Tell us about the partnership with Starlink and how you see satellite connectivity evolving over time for T-Mobile and your customers?
This is -- I love the product. It's -- we created this partnership with Starlink to put an end to dead zones. And just the engineering task blows my mind, right? Who would have thought 4 or 5 years ago, you would have flying towers who could actually communicate with a moving wireless device. And it took both themes, we invented the category with Starlink. And we like the partnership at an engineering level, we love working with them and solving difficult complex problems. And I think that partnership continues to be focused on exactly that, which is how do we put an end to dead zones.
When you think of direct-to-sell as a category -- when you think of satellite more broadly as a category. I think broadband is substitutional and it's a good product and it's substitutional because the physics and the economics of it work to be substitutional. I think you heard Gwen and Mike speak this week at Mobile World Congress, and they have the same view, which is direct-to-sell is far more complementary than it is substitutional just because the physics and the economics of it worked that way, whether you think of kind of the beam that you have in a satellite, whether you think about the ability to connect indoors, it's a clearly complementary category. And we like the partnership and we like what it -- the value it brings in terms of putting an end to dead zone.
What do customers think of it so far? Has the demand been in line with your expectations?
Very much so. It's one of those things that A lot of people buy as insurance as well, right? So usage isn't necessarily the best indicator of value they get. And the way we think of it is it's part of this everyday value we provide, right? It's part of reminding you every day why the relationship with T-Mobile is special.
And do you see Starlink and direct-to-sell still complementary, even if they were to acquire spectrum? Obviously, SpaceX is in the process of closing on a transaction with EchoStar.
Very much so because -- I mean, you just -- again, you look at the physics and the economics of this and the amount of spectrum versus the number of towers and the actual capacity that it will have, even with all the satellites, it's a great complementary category.
In that case, if they were interested in an MVNO with T-Mobile, would you be interested at the right economic structure?
Look, our philosophy on MVNOs is really clear. We get into an MVNO when we think there's an incremental TAM to go after. And that could be because of a specific target population, like an ethnic group. Or it could be because of a specific channel play and distribution, which is why we did the MVNO with the cable players, right? It's not clear to me how a partnership with Starlink from an MVNO perspective would fit into those criteria.
I got it. That makes sense. Okay. All right. Let's shift to something this audience cares a lot about, which is capital allocation. You have, I think, over $50 billion remaining in your capital envelope through 2027. You've got buybacks. We're expecting the pace of buybacks to pick up. How do you prioritize all your different options when you think about share repurchases, M&A, spectrum, obviously got some auctions coming.
So this is one of the things we, as a management team and as a Board, spent a lot of time on as you'd expect is kind of responsible stewards of your capital. We start with leverage. What is the right level of leverage. In the current environment, we still think 2.5x EBITDA is the right level of leverage.
Then we look at the business itself, what are all the investments it needs, right? Specifically, what does CapEx look like? And we've given a guide which is $10 billion while we do the U.S. Cellular and go into that range of 9% to 10%.
What are the investments does the business need? What are the strategic opportunities? Those could range from fiber M&A to spectrum and how does that play into it? And then that tumbles into shareholder remuneration and the split between share buyback and dividend. And that's consistently what we followed.
And how come you decided to lean in, in the first quarter here? I think you talked about up to $5 billion.
So as a Board, what we look at is once we've done that flow through, we look at what do we think is the divergence from intrinsic value, right? And the Board reviews that from time to time and decides on what is the right level of share buyback in the context of the overall envelope.
Okay. I know it's probably a better question for Deutsche Telekom, but they also announced they would not be selling in this year. What does that tell? What signal does that send to the market in your mind?
From my perspective, it tells us they trust this management team, which is good to hear. But you'd have to ask them about the details of that.
Right. Okay. All right. Then lastly, on spectrum, to the extent you can talk about it. Last month, you guys emphasized the sort of build versus buy framework as you evaluate deals, et cetera. How would you describe the kind of spectrum position at T-Mobile today when you look at it versus your competitive set?
We love our position. You just look at mid-band, 2.5 versus the existing C-band, 70% more area covered. Secondly, we will defend our spectrum leadership. We think it's fundamental to the best network. And we'll be thoughtful about doing it, right? I think it's kind of -- we can have those 2 thoughts at the same time. We will defend our leadership, and we'll be economically sensible. So when we looked at stuff like EchoStar, the price was too high. I think the really great news is having Chairman Carr and the FCC have done a fabulous job in terms of the amount of spectrum that's becoming available. And as we go through '27 with the C-band, also the fact that 2.7 is now being looked at by the government as part of an official process. There's also potentials for 7 gig coming in. I think there's a lot of spectrum, which means the value of that spectrum will be good. And so we're interested in looking at all of that as we think about defending our spectrum leadership and extending that because this is not purely about just keeping what we have, it's also extending it as part of our broader best network and continuing to stay 3 to 4 years ahead of everyone else.
Well, maybe for my last question, then let's look out 3 to 5 years and tell us a little bit about what you think 6G could bring to T-Mobile and to the industry as we start to think more seriously about that technology.
I'm really excited by what 6G could bring. I mean I think it will bring the normal things a new G brings in terms of better air interface, better spectral efficiency, et cetera, et cetera. But the standout thing is, for the first time, you will have a network that not just processes bits and bites but also tokens. And that will be because we'll have AI-RAN. And just to give you a sense of the kind of thing AI-RAN is already doing for us. When we had Winter Storm Fern, all of our antenna tilts during that -- during the storm was actually done through AI and a self-optimizing network. You didn't have people climbing up towers to tilt an antenna, right? It's one of the reasons why we had such little disruption in our network.
Now we will need AI within our own network. Now that will create enormous opportunities because in a physical AI world, as Jensen calls it, right? What you will have is for robotics to work for factory automation to work. Connectivity will be the connective tissue because without low latency connectivity and without influence at the edge, it's going to be hard to scale this stuff. Now when you think about the idea that I'm already going to put AI into the network, low latency will be a feature of 6G and you want to offer influence at the edge. I think there's a really exciting possibility of not just having fallow capacity for FWA, but having fallow compute to drive inference at the edge. So I think 6G and what it could do, not just in terms of network efficiency and everything you're normally used to seeing in wireless networks, but also the role it can allow us to play in the physical AI and inference ecosystem could be incredibly exciting. And will be here before we realize it.
Bits, bytes and tokens.
Yes. Bits, bytes and tokens.
All right. Anything you want to wrap up with?
Yes. Look, I think the story of T-Mobile that you should expect to see over the next 3, 5 years is kind of 3 parts: widening differentiation, which goes back to best network, best value, best experience, continuing to push ahead, continuing to open up an even bigger gap from our perspective in terms of the quality of relationship which, in turn, opens up unparalleled growth opportunities from consumer wireless to enterprise wireless and SMB wireless to broadband to physical and edge AI and also into leveraging that relationship into new areas like financial services. And all of that combined with the financial discipline to convert that into revenues, EBITDA and most importantly, industry-leading free cash flow conversion.
Okay. Well, thank you very much, Srini, for coming.
Thank you. Thank you for having me.
Thank you everybody.
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T-Mobile US — Morgan Stanley Technology
T-Mobile US — Morgan Stanley Technology
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Position: T‑Mobile betont klare Differenzierung: bestes Netz, bestes Preis‑/Leistungsverhältnis und beste Kundenerfahrung als Wachstumshebel.
- Fokus: CEO Srini Gopalan will die Lücke zu Wettbewerbern weiter vergrößern, getrieben von Netzführung (5G → 6G), Digital‑/AI‑Transformation und Ausbau von Fixed Wireless & Fiber.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- KPIs: Verschiebung der Messgrößen hin zu Postpaid‑Accounts (statt Lines) als besserer Proxy für Customer Lifetime Value (CLV).
- Digital & AI: Vier Hebel (App T‑Life, IntentCX, AI‑gestützte Coverage, IT‑Modernisierung) sollen Servicekosten senken und Experience verbessern.
- Produktmix: Breitbandziel 18–19 Mio. Kunden bis 2030 (FWA + Fiber); FWA‑Planung bottom‑up auf Hex‑Bin‑Basis, Ziel ~15 Mio. FWA in Annahmen.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- Guidance‑Details: ARPA‑Wachstum 2026 bei 2,5–3% als Managementziel; digitale Maßnahmen sollen in 2 Jahren zusätzlich ~$10 Mrd. Service‑Umsatz bringen, ~$7 Mrd. davon fließen in EBITDA.
- Effizienz: $3 Mrd. laufende Kosteneinsparung (run‑rate bis 2027) als Teil größerer Effizienzagenda.
- Satelliten‑Partnership: Zusammenarbeit mit Starlink für Direct‑to‑Device als komplementäres Produkt gegen Dead‑Zones; Nachfrage entspricht Erwartungen (häufig als Versicherung gekauft).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Metrikwechsel: Warum Accounts? Management: Accounts sind näher am CLV; Linien sind weniger aussagekräftig für Wertschöpfung.
- Digitalisierung & KI: Nachgehakt auf $3 Mrd. Einsparziel und Call‑Reduktion (50% erreicht von 75% Ziel) — Management nennt konkrete Hebel, aber Timing für vollen Nutzen bleibt gestaffelt.
- Spectrum & Kapital: Fragen zu Fiber, Auktionen und Buybacks: T‑Mobile verteidigt Spectrum‑Führung, will ökonomisch sinnvoll handeln; Board entscheidet Buyback‑Tempo (Q1 Commitment bis zu $5 Mrd.).
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Die Präsentation ist ein strategisches Manifest: Ausbau der Differenzierung (Netz, Preis, Experience) plus beschleunigte Digital‑/AI‑Investitionen sollen organisches Wachstum, ARPA‑Steigerung und starke Free‑Cash‑Flow‑Conversion liefern. Für Aktionäre bedeutet das: hoher Wachstumsfokus bei diszipliniertem Kapitaleinsatz, sichtbar in konkreten Zielen (ARPA, FWA‑Ambitionen, Effizienz‑Zahlen), aber mit Abhängigkeit vom Erfolg der Digital‑/AI‑Umsetzung und zukünftigen Spectrum‑Entscheidungen.
T-Mobile US — Mobile US, Inc. - Analyst/Investor Day - T-Mobile US, Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Please welcome Cathy Yao.
Hello. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us live right here in New York City for our year-end earnings call and Capital Markets Day update event. Before we get started, I'll draw your attention to our safe harbor statement. This presentation includes forward-looking statements that may differ materially from actual results as well as certain non-GAAP measures. Please see our SEC filings for a review of risk factors. Please also see our Investor Relations website for all related materials, including a GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliation.
Let me walk you quickly through our agenda today. Srini is going to begin with a halftime check-in since our September 2024 Capital Markets Day. Before turning to our widening differentiation across Best Network best value and best customer experiences. He's then going to talk about growth. He's going to talk about how our growth opportunities across our core wireless business across our broadband business. And in new growth areas are going to continue to drive sustained outperformance for the Un-carrier. And then Peter will wrap it all together with a financial update. We'll then have the broader leadership team join us right here on stage to answer your questions. Okay, let's get the show started.
[Presentation]
Please welcome Srini Gopalan.
Good morning. How are you doing? Well, thank you all for being here. It's a unique occasion. A few of you have asked me why are we doing this event, well, it's Q4 earnings. It's halfway through our Capital Markets Day cycle, so we felt it was good to do a half-time check-in. And there's the small thing that Mike and I did back in November, the CEO transition. And I'm excited to talk to you guys about the future about my vision for this phenomenal company and talk to you in detail about some of the unparalleled growth we have staring at us. So I'm excited to be here and excited to spend the next couple of hours talking about a business I've grown to love over the last 10 years.
Let's get started. I'm going to kick off with a quick kind of half-time check-in. So how are we doing halfway through our Capital Markets Day cycle? And the short answer is incredibly well. You've all seen these numbers. But the -- every time I look at them, I'm awed with what we've achieved already. We're growing 4x faster in service revenue than any of our competitors. Twice as quickly on EBITDA. We've returned over $20 billion to our shareholders. Our free cash flow generation and our conversion of service revenue into free cash flow is an industry benchmark and continues to stay really strong. And that's where the rubber hits the road, right? You could report multiple things differently. Ultimately, what matters is free cash flow conversion. So incredible results and we've either met or beaten pretty much everything we've guided to from a Capital Markets Day guidance perspective as of this point, halfway through the cycle. And what lies underneath that is the incredible ability we've built to not just bring in new relationships, new families, new businesses into the T-Mobile fold, but also grow and deepen those relationships.
So if you look at our performance over -- it's a bit stable on the clicker. But if you look at our performance over the last 5 years, we've bought in over 1 million new prepaid relationships every year. right? That's new businesses, that's new families, right? One, 1.2 million new relationships every year. There's only one other competitor who reports that, and you can see those have been negative. And it's not just bringing in these relationships that matters. It's what we do with them. It's the extent to which we nurture existing relationships. Our RPA has grown by 13% since 2020. And in an industry where people worry about deflation where people worry about pricing power, our ability to drive these relationships. T-Mobile stands out as the one carrier who's not just grown volume but also grown the nature of that relationship driven more CLV into these relationships. So all that's great. Those are the headline numbers. right? Great financial performance, great revenue, solid work on volume and value.
But I want to talk about something different. What underlies this, right? What's the secret sauce that drives a lot of this. And the thing that's driven all of this performance is our widening differentiation. Now there was a law of physics in this industry, which is there has to be a trade-off. You can either have the best network, in which case, customers have to pay a premium for it or you can deliver best value and best experience but the network kind of sucks, right? That was the law of physics of this industry. And the reason for our outstanding results is we've challenged and broken that law of physics because at T-Mobile, our customers have no trade-off to make. They get the best network, the best value and the best experience from one provider. And that widening differentiation underlies all of our results. And what I'll talk to you about is. We don't take that differentiation for granted. We fight every day to widen that differentiation. It's widened over the last 3 years, and you'll see it widen even further. That's what opens out the unparalleled growth opportunities. that we're staring at. I'm going to double-click you through each of these elements, best network, best value, best experience, what we've done and how we're going to widen that differentiation further and then convert that into what does that mean in terms of growth opportunities for us.
Let's start with the Best Network. I mean historically, through the storied history of the Un-carrier, the one thing we didn't have was Best Network. Over the last 5 years, we have quietly built the best network. And that changes our proposition fundamentally. It's what takes us into the no trade-offs territory. Let's talk about the best network, right? Building the best network starts with having the best assets. And what are the best assets spectrum. We have more spectrum than anyone else. Importantly, we have better spectrum than anyone else. Our 2.5, which we often call the Goldilocks spectrum, our 2.5 covers 70% more area than C-band. And that's just one example. It's a very big important example of where we have not just more spectrum, but better spectrum. Our grid, our history with mid-band frequencies meant for a long time, this was a bit of a disadvantage. We needed a denser grid to cover the same area. In a 5G world, the density of that grid is a huge positive for us. It allows us to generate speeds and capacities that others can only dream on.
And pulling all of that together is the brain of the network our core. Now we moved to a 5G stand-alone core back in 2021. Our competitors got there sometime in 25. That's a 3- to 4-year lead on the quality of our 5G network. 5G SA, now 5G advanced, the number of capabilities we're building into our core gives us the ability to take these best assets and put the best brain to it. Now all of that is kind of the asset side of the story, spectrum, towers, core, all great pulls together to give us the best assets. But in the classic Un-carrier manner, what we've done different is we've turned those assets into something that makes the customer experience better. Now we talked at Capital Markets Day about our vision for customer-driven coverage. That vision today is a reality. We use AI and huge amounts of customer data to deploy capital in our network based on what's right for customers rather than chasing a vanity stack like POPS.
I'll give you an example of where this makes a real difference. Let's take Sacramento. Now the traditional way of thinking about improving the network in Sacramento is densify the network, cover more pots. The reality is to improve the customer experience for the people in Sacramento, where you actually need to double down on coverage is not just Sacramento itself but Lake Tahoe, given the amount of time they spend on Lake Tahoe, right? And that understanding of where people work, where they live, where they play, that combination of things is really what drives network experience. and using AI, using scale machine learning, all of our site deployment. We deploy almost 4,000 greenfield sites a year now. All of our site deployment is surgically planned to improve our customer experience. That's been the heart of what's driven the best network, great assets, a fabulous score and the ability to use all of this to meaningfully change the game on customer experience.
And what that's resulted in is a true ultra capacity network. Now the proof of capacity, the best way to think about capacity is speed. So what speeds can your network deliver is the best way of thinking about what is it actually that this network offers in terms of capacity. You look at our median download speeds our median download speeds are -- get this twice as much as our nearest competitors. That gives you a sense of the amount of capacity this ultra capacity network has today. it's phenomenal. And speed, again, for me is not just a vanity stat. It's not an esoteric number. It's a really good indication of capacity. And when you have a new phone like the iPhone 17, it's great to compare what happens on our network versus other networks. We're 85% faster than one competitor and nearly 50% faster than the other competitor. That's true network differentiation. And it's not just us saying it. Many of you in this room, the experts have known for a while that we have the best network. We won Ookla, we won Open signal, multiple speed tests. What gives me real pride today is J.D. Power. After 35 reports over 17 years, the erstwhile trial #1 network has been unseated. T-Mobile today is the #1 in network quality as judged by J.D. Power. That's after 35 reports, 17 years we are #1 as a network.
What's even more important than what the experts say, however, is what customers say. And this is -- we talk about these money slides. This is one of those graphs that I look at very, very often because this is what translates into customer perception. Network switches amongst the most sensitive, amongst the people who do most research, network switches, when we ask them, what is the best network, right? Now back in 2020, 1 in 8 thought T Mobile was the best network, 1 in 2.5 thought Verizon was the best network. Today, we're at a place where in believe that T-Mobile is the best network, slightly more than 1 in 4. And you can see that gap is closing. And you can see there's a long way for us still to go. We have the ability to meaningfully expand this lead. With our ultra capacity network with all of the features that 5G SA gives us with 5G advanced with our continued investment and doubling down on what this network is we're not standing still. We're committed to network leadership, and we're committed to expanding this lead. And the best indication of that is how we think about the next wave of network innovation, 6G. 5G, we own 5G. We still own 5G. 5G has allowed us to build a business called FWA from a standing start to close to 8 million customers in 3 to 4 years, that blows my mind, right?
5G was the core of how we started competing in a segment we didn't exist T-Mobile for Business. Our 5G superiority has driven a lot of the industry-leading growth. And we're not standing still. 6G opens up multiple possibilities for us, whether that's AI, physical AI, edge AI and we're right there defining the standards of 6G. I'll talk a bit more about specific opportunities with 6G later. One thing to remember, though, is our lead in 5G does mean that our rand refresh cycle runs significantly ahead of the rest. And we start with an unfair advantage on 6G. It's an unfair advantage we love. The fact that people like John saw the vision for 5G way before the rest of the industry did, puts us in a fabulous place to drive the next wave of innovation. And that 26% of network switches who see us as the best network is only going in 1 direction. -- it's going this way. And that unlocks the nominal amounts of growth. And I'll come back and talk about where those growth opportunities exist.
So Best network. After 1 year of the carrier to be able to say that, I relish it. And if you notice, I'll say that a few times today. But it's not just Best network. Having no trade-offs is more than best network. It's also Best Value. And we are in a truly unique place on Best Value. We provide best value, not just for new customers, but also for our existing customers. We provide best value, not just in terms of the free iPhone, but in terms of value that you can count on every day savings, value that you get every hour. Let's talk about existing customers. Our existing customers pay between 12% and 15% lower than AT&T and Verizon. That is a massive factor in terms of the flexibility it gives us. It's also something that we zealously guard and protect because it's the heart of enabling us to claim no trade-offs. It is at the heart of flexibility that it gives us in terms of how we price new customers.
And importantly, it's the heart of the relationship. It's making sure that we can reassure people every day that they get not just best network, but also best value. And when we look at new customers, we -- the holistic value we provide is substantially better than AT&T and Verizon. And you can compare the experience beyond plan here where you not only get all of our services, but you also get Netflix on us. You also get Hulu on us. You also get Apple TV, you also get T satellite. The bouquet of things that we offer and the savings we drive every day is there's a 20% to 30% gap in terms of value, we're able to provide new customers. So you've got existing customers who save every day and you've got new customers who save every day, not just on the free phone you get every 3 years. But in terms of meaningful things that drive your life every day. And that best value is something we're going to guard zealously -- that's something we will protect. That is our heritage, and that's something we will not give up purely because we have best network now.
Now you think about value and network and there's a third thing customers care about, experience. How do you treat me? Now our experience story over the last 13 years, has been built on 2 things: incredible people and an incredible culture. Let's start with our care centers and retail. Now typically, when you talk about taking cost out, people go at this from saying, let me take cost out of experience. Let me kind of shave this much headcount off. That's not how the Un-carrier thinks of it. We think of it as costs come because we've created a problem for people. And the question is what can we do with our incredible frontline to enable them to solve those problems better. You can see on the call reduction front, through a real focus on eliminating force on working with our frontline to solve people's problems better, ensuring that they don't need to call twice for the same problem, equipping them with better tools. You're seeing a 50% reduction in calls. We had committed to 75% in the Capital Markets Day at the half time, we're making great progress on this. And this is not simply about technical things. There's a great element of culture to this.
One of the things that happens at T-Mobile is when this team visits an experience center normal big companies, kind of the big shots show up, present for 55 minutes, and then they need to be somewhere else. So they'd love to take questions, but they don't have time for it. That sounds familiar? At T-Mobile, this works very differently. I get on a good day, maybe 8 minutes on stage. Jon Freier fires them up for maybe 2 minutes. And then we have 50 minutes of our front line relentlessly pounding us on what have you done recently for me in terms of solving customer problems. And their expectation is very simple that as far as we can, they'd like us to solve the problem there. This isn't -- let me take this -- that's a really good point. Let me take this back home with me and I'll get my assistant to do something about it. Our frontline is demanding they want an answer now, and they want to know why you can't send an e-mail when you're sitting at that stage to solve my problem. That's a huge part of what's enabled all of the stuff that you're seeing. And the same thing plays out in our retail stores. Our company-owned retail, our experienced stores give us a significantly better NPS than our authorized retailers. That's down to culture, that's down to the incredible empathy our people show. And we're stoking that.
We have cut back on some of our authorized retail and driven even more investment into our experience store. That's a big part of the secret sauce of what's driven our best experience. And it's not just that. A big part of our culture is how we think about rewarding existing customers. Unlike other companies, we don't believe customers need to prove their loyalty to us. We believe we need to prove our loyalty to them which is why all of our plans compact with things that they don't get elsewhere. And then there's my favorite, the money can't buy stuff with Magenta status and T-Mobile Tuesdays is probably a great highlight of that. We do wild stuff on T-Mobile Tuesdays, free Slurpees, actually, we work with Wingstop to give away free chicken and Wingstop actually ran out of chicken which gives you a sense of the -- again, prior and Cat's got lots of e-mails, some angry customers demanding more free chicken. But that gives you some sense of -- when we talk about experience, this is a lot of fun for us. This is about how we work with our frontline. This is about what we put into our product. This is about genuinely committing to giving our customers an experience that special, unique, edgy that surprises them, that brings our relationship to life.
And we're not stopping. We're now taking the best technology digital, AI, putting that in the hands of our incredible frontline to drive an even sharper and even more differentiated experience. And at the center of all that is T-life, Sea Life more than 100 million downloads and there were weeks last year when we were the most downloaded app on the app stores, both the app stores. That's not the most downloaded telco or carrier service app. That's the most downloaded app full stop. Now we've got 4-odd million relationships, businesses, families and typically, the primary account holder is the person who accesses T Life out of those 34 million order of magnitude use T Life every month, and they use it 4 times every month. It's an incredible source of engagement -- it's a huge portal into our experience, it's game-changing for us in terms of the nature of the relationship. And with intense CX which is AI that we've developed, working really closely with OpenAI, where the objective is simple, it is to personalize the experience. We raised the bar on what a carrier experience should look like and using AI and digital, we're taking it to the next level in terms of making that experience feel a lot more personal, feel a lot more tailored to the individual. This gives us lots of opportunities.
But first up, it changes the nature of our core consumer wireless business. You look at the extent of self-service now. We started off this journey with 22% of our upgrades being done through T Life, and they were all assisted, which is an agent would show the customer what to do. That was in Q4 2024 just a little more than a year ago. Today, we're sitting at 73% of our upgrades being done on tea Life and 39% of them unassisted consumers doing it themselves. And this unlocks a huge amount of efficiency as well as satisfaction. Peter will talk in detail about this. But across our AI and digital initiatives, we expect close to $3 billion in savings by the end of '27 in our '27 run rate, which is incredible because this has not been a slash in burn, let's take out X100 people. This has been how do we go after the experience, how do we make that experience a win-win where consumers enjoy it where they naturally move towards this, while at the same time, making us significantly more efficient as a business. And that's the heart of the unlock.
And we'll see the same story play out through Adaline, which is our second biggest transaction in retail as well as with acquisitions. We announced breaking through another big consumer pain point, the ability to switch easily with easy switch back in November. And as easy switch scales, we'll see even more transactions move on to T Life. And TaLife will be the center of our relationship, the portal into T-Mobile. And again, we're not stopping here because like I said, we're about continuing to widen differentiation across network, value and experience. One of the most personal things, as we talk about personalizing experience is language. We have over 6 billion international calls every year on our network. More than 40% of our base travels internationally. And I'm proud today to introduce for the first time across the world on any network using AI, live translate built right into the core of our network. I'll let this video explain it and then come back and talk to you about it.
[Presentation]
Now there's a few things that get me incredibly excited about that. The product itself, life translation. Suddenly, you kind of moving across barriers, you're enabling people to speak to each other, which at the end is the core purpose and mission of our industry. What gets me even more excited is this is the first scale use case of AI being built directly into the core network, which is why the only thing you need to use this product is one person on the T-Mobile network. You don't need an app. You don't need to type something in and pass it to someone else to using translate. You just need 1 person on the T-Mobile network, and you can speak the other language. And it's an incredible capability. But what I like even more than this is underlying this, we've built a platform that allows us to build multiple AI services directly into our core network.
And as we talk about personalizing and experiences, we talk of kind of raising the bar on what you can expect from your carrier. This is a great example of where we're going. So we pause for a minute. Kind of talk about our journey from where we were to the best network. The fact that we're not stopping there. The fact that, that is even going to broaden further as we get into the 6G age. The ultra capacity network that we already have is only going to get better, best value, which for us doesn't mean simply new customers getting great value and getting great value once in 3 years with a phone, it means delivering value every day. It means delivering value to our existing customers and new. We talked about experience and how we're transitioning from A lot of that being driven purely by our people and culture to empowering those people kind of stoking that culture with the best in technology and making that even more personal.
How does all of this come together, right? It's easy to talk about widening differentiation, but do we have any evidence of it. My favorite number is our NPS. It measures what people think about our relationship. Would they recommend us to someone else. And here's what's happened to NPS over the last 3 years. If you look at where we were in '23, it was -- we were kind of in the same place as our competitors give or take a bit. You look at where we are in '25. We've opened up -- this is what widening differentiation looks like. This is what happens when you break out of the pack. This ultimately is the biggest driver to all of the outsized financial performance that you saw. It's the fact that we're able to take these relationships, use our unique combination of best value, best network, best experience to widen that differentiation. And that differentiation, are we happy with where we are today? Absolutely not. We'd love to see those bars, especially the Magenta bar, grow significantly and widen the space between us and our competitors. And that's what moving our network forward, moving our value forward and moving our experience forward is. It's all about taking that and widening that differentiation because our strong belief proven by the results that we've seen is what keeps driving us.
What drives our success is not the promotion that we did last month. What drives the tide of momentum and moves it in our direction is that widening differentiation. And that widening differentiation for us opens out unparalleled growth opportunities. And I want to spend a few minutes talking about the differentiation is great. What does that mean in terms of growth opportunities. We are convinced that we are staring at a set of growth opportunities that no one else in our industry has. Let's talk about them. Let's start with core consumer wireless. Historically, we've over-indexed on the value seeker portion of this. Today, network seekers see T-Mobile as the home of the best network. Over 20 million families and businesses chose AT&T and Verizon, mostly in the 4G era because they were happy paying a premium because they wanted the best network. That is no longer true. And that opens up a massive growth opportunity for us. You take New York City, we are by far leaders here with significant share even in New York City, we're under-indexed on network seekers. And that's why we're continuing to grow share in New York City, even with significant lead over the rest as of today.
The opportunity on network seekers exists across geography, exists across types of customers. Our second big opportunity, small markets and rural areas. Now just to be clear, because we call them small markets and rural areas, it doesn't mean a lot of people don't live there. 40% of America lives here. Our share used to be 13% back in 2020. including M&A, it's now at 24%. But 24% means there's a lot of headroom to grow here. Again, these markets tend to over-index on network seekers. -- and moving to the best network opens up massive opportunity here. And that's not all, even within core consumer wireless. You look at our back book pricing, and we'll talk in more detail about this. that opens up a lot of headroom in terms of value growth, in terms of how we can deepen that relationship. So if I look at core consumer wireless, there are 3 significant drivers of growth. And again, that's not all because we have T-Mobile for Business. Here, our customers rigorously test networks before buying, and we love that. Because we know our odds of winning with a customer who's rigorously tested the network are very, very high.
Again, New York is a great example. The first responders here depend on T priority, and they picked the priority after rigorous testing. Lots of runway here in terms of share growth. Moving on to broadband. Now our broadband business -- for the most, our FWA product is based on this ultra capacity network. And a lot of you have asked us, so where does FWA go? How do you think of capacity in this context. We've said 12 million customers in 2028. Today, I'm delighted to tell you that we believe this business will go to 15 million customers in 2030 and that there's a lot of runway even beyond that. Fiber, we believe, will add 3 million to 4 million customers which will give us a broadband business of 18 million to 19 million customers by 2030. I'd like to pause for a minute. We would have built a business with 18 million to 19 million customers in 7 years. Not sure there's any company of our size and scale that's done that. 18 million to 19 million customers in this industry in broadband, and remember, for us, this is all incremental. None of this is an overbuild of copper and cannibalization. All of this is incremental revenue. as incremental customer relationships that we can nurture and the growth in this business and the upside still left in it is substantial. And I'll double-click on this in a little more detail.
And then there's new growth areas. T-Ads we've talked about, we've just launched our financial services, and we're really excited about where 6G goes -- this last part, only a small proportion of it is captured in our guidance as we build these businesses. But again, I'll double-click through each of these to give you a sense of why I'm so excited by the growth that lies ahead of us and why I'm convinced that the best lies ahead. Let's talk about core consumer wireless first. We've grown -- sorry, like? We've grown really quickly, and we've talked about why NPS being a big driver. The network seeker population, whether it's in TB whether it's an SMRA or in our top 100 is a huge unlock for us. Now let me give you some stats, right? New York City, I talked about, we're continuing to grow share because we're still under-indexed with network seekers. An interesting fact is in areas where our competitors have built fiber. We have gained share.
Now I'm not suggesting that there's any causality there, right? But we have gained share even in areas where our competitors have built fiber because we continue to attract the network seeker population in those areas and our historical under-indexation, gives us share growth opportunities. This collection of opportunities across top 100. And when you look at our top 100, all of you are familiar, we split it into 3 kinds of markets, markets where we're #1, #2 and #3 and we're growing across all 3. We're continuing to win household share. All of this gives us a significant opportunity. And from a unit economics perspective, it's very, very accretive because under-indexing in network seekers, when you're looking at future growth, that's a good thing because in comparison with value seekers, you do see accretion in terms of the relationship and ARPU and ARPA. That's on the volume side.
On the value side, our front book, back book pricing equation is a huge positive. It means that when we think about new customers coming in as a group, they're actually accretive to both ARPU and with time ARPA because of the pricing of our back book. And it allows us a lot more flexibility in terms of pricing of the front book. It also gives us runway in terms of deepening our relationship with existing customers. And from time to time, we will look at some of our legacy plans and optimize our rate plans in the context of more for more. So that combination of things gives us a lot of runway on the RPA side, which is kind of the value, the [ Ptime SKU ]the complement to what I talked about on the volume side. I do want to spend a couple of minutes on 1 thing, though. The one tenant that has been fundamental to the Un-carrier is win-win economics, which is economics that create really strong CLVs, combined with economics that deliver unparalleled value to our customers. And from time to time, the industry loses its way and we kind of get into some bad practices. And that's when as the Un-carrier, we step in and change the course and what typically happens as other people follow.
As I look at the industry today, I believe we're at another such point where we, as an industry, have gotten over focused on how free the newest phone is. And we've lost track of some of the incredible things that we bring to the customers in terms of value. And I'm not going to say a lot more about this right now. but we will change that. The Un-carrier will make another move, which will take us much more towards the direction of where we create value, which will take the emphasis back to win-win economics, things that are good for the customer and things that lead to more sustainable CLVs with time because we believe maintaining win-win economics things that are good for investors as well as customers is critical to driving a healthy environment in this industry. But you'll hear more from us in the next few weeks and months as we drive this journey forward. But that's consumer wireless and the broader wireless opportunities in TFB. So we've got clear line of sight to strong volume growth, especially with network seekers. And we've got the advantage of our back book combined with, as you can see here, strong premium plan loading on our front book and the ability to grow relationships all of which makes our [indiscernible] equation look really strong. Peter will delve into that in a lot more detail, but we believe we will continue growing ARPA in the range of 2.5% to 3% even as we go through this journey, and that will get powered by some of the things we're talking about here.
Let me move next to broadband growth. And how do we create this business with 18 million to 19 million customers by 2030. Our broadband business to date, largely FWA has been phenomenal. We've led the industry in broadband new customers. And that's from a standing start. You can see really we started scaling in 2022. And this business has been running at a real clip, close to 2 million new customers every year. The industry leader in broadband net adds. And what's driven that again is NPS. What's driven that again is the simple reality of when you give customers a great product, you would -- our NPS today is higher than fiber. That's a composite of the product, the value we provide, the experience, the ultra capacity network -- that is the source of the unlock for us on FWA. And that product has only gotten better. And this is kind of -- to me, the best demonstration of what an ultra capacity network is.
When you look at what's happened, we have a 77% growth of customers, a 27% increase in usage per customer and our speeds have gone up by 50% during that period of time. And if you take our newest routers, it's gone up nearly -- it would be nearly doubled speeds at the same point in time that we've seen 80% more customers using 30% more. That is incredible in terms of the amount of capacity our ultra capacity network has. That's what makes us really confident that we can get to 15 million customers in 2030, and our speeds will be higher than this. Let me walk you through kind of how we think about the 50 million customers. We step back for a minute first. As all of you know, we've run this business with a [ fallow ] capacity model. What does that mean? It means at a Hexbin level, and there are 30 million Hexbin, it's a small geographical area. Each of those 30 million hexbins what we do is we look at our wireless usage today. We project that forward for growth. add all of this was done at peak hour because that's the only thing that matters for a wireless network.
So we look at wireless usage and peak projected for growth going forward, reserve that capacity for wireless whatever is left is then used for FWA. When we talk about 15 million customers in 2030 at higher speeds than what we have today, it still assumes fallow capacity. It does not assume any of the spectrum acquisitions that the one big beautiful bill will end up doing. It doesn't assume any spectral efficiency increase because of -- what it does build for is the fact that we are broadening our product range. So as we sell more into businesses, for example, they don't use between 7% to 9%. So that is that is true follow capacity. It does build in the increased spectral efficiency because of better routers. It does build in the increased petrol efficiency as a result of being on 5G advanced features like LS, which allow us to use our existing assets even better. And so when we look at that $15 million number, that's on a very conservative basis.
And when I look at FWA as a category, I think the days of asking the question of is this a temporary category? Is this here to stay? Those are gone, right? The speed of evolution of mobile technology as we look forward, convinces me that this category is going to have a lot more upside. At this point in time, we can see line of sight to the $15 million, and that's what we'll go for by 2030. But that creates itself. Remember, again, all of these are incremental, none of this is overbuild, none of this is compromising legacy revenue. And in addition to that, we have a business we're really excited by fiber. T-Fiber, everything we've done to date has only confirmed our expectations in terms of the power of our brand, the relevance of our distribution our ability to convince customers that this is the next stage in their journey. We've also been super thoughtful about the capital intensity of this and we pick partners who we can trust where they bring expertise that we don't have.
We expect, just based on our current assets to scale the 12 million to 15 million homes passed and 3 million to 4 million customers by 2030, which would leave us with the broadband business of 18 million to 19 million customers largely built over a 7-year period, which is again testament to the value of that NPS chart, what we can do with our relationships, the power of our brand and the power of this team. I'll spend my last few minutes now on new growth opportunities. As I said, the vast majority of these are not built into the numbers that Peter showed you. Let me just back up and tell you how we think about new growth opportunities. For us to do something other than consumer wireless, business wireless and broadband. We start with kind of 3 questions. How large is the TAM or the target market and the business we want to be in? Is it big enough for us to play? Like when we ask the question on broadband, the answer is clearly yes. Second, -- can we use our existing strengths, our network, our customer relationships? Do they make a difference in this industry? Does it help us win?
And third, can we disrupt the industry. Because, again, we believe producing me-too product in a new industry is not what T-Mobile is about. When the answer to those 3 questions is yes, then we double down and focus on that. Three areas that we're excited by. Advertising, T-Ads, we acquired Bliss and Vista, that business is tracking. It's in line with all of the things we talked to you about at the last Capital Markets Day. It's a business that we think has a lot of upside, and we're continuing to drive that. Financial services, we're working with Capital One. We launched our credit card in November. That's gone really well. We're excited about all of the stuff we're seeing in our first results. And we think there's a lot more to do in financial services because it picks those 3 boxes. We believe that we can meaningfully reinvent. It's clearly a large enough TAM. We have a huge amount of credit information and our existing customer base is massive in our ability to leverage that a substantial. So again, that's a business we're excited by. And last but not least, physical and edge AI and everything that a world that becomes increasingly connected brings to us as an opportunity, both in terms of -- I mean, the way I think of this is in an AI ran, we will be using we will be using a lot more compute.
And if you were to think about this, what 6G will be is a network that not just processes bits and bites but also tokens. And effectively, what physical and edge AI will do a bit like FWA, where we landed up using fallow capacity, here, you will end up having fallow compute that we could then put to use both in physical and I. But I'm rapidly getting to kind of out of my depth on physical and I. So we thought we'd invite a close friend of T-Mobile and man who probably knows more about physical and AGI than anyone else, Jensen Huang, to share his thoughts on 6G and physical AI.
Hello, Srini. It's great to join your Capital Markets Day. T-Mobile is the world leader in telecommunications networks. You did it by rethinking innovation and how networks are engineered. A year ago, T-Mobile and NVIDIA announced the opening of the AI RAN innovation center. Together, we quickly moved from idea to making live calls over NVIDIA's aerial AI RAN computer. AI continues to transform every industry and will also revolutionize telecommunications like electricity, the Internet, AI is essential infrastructure. Every consumer will use it, every company will be powered by it, and every country will build it.
Now intelligence is moving into the physical world with robots, autonomous vehicles and cities, 1 billion cars, billions of robots in the future, millions of factories and hundreds of millions of farms will all be connected to intelligence. AI will be distributed at the edge present at the location and understand the logic of the physical world. This is where AI Ran and 6G change everything. The radio network becomes a distributed AI. T-Mobile has recognized this shift. Every base station with NVIDIA aerial becomes an AI computer and 6G is the connective fabric. Computing, sensing and connectivity converge. This creates entirely new opportunities for the telecommunications industry. That's why this moment matters. I'm thrilled to see our vision of AI RAN taking shape in T-Mobile's Seattle Labs. Together, we're demonstrating how telecommunications is an essential platform for AI. And together, T-Mobile and NVIDIA are building this future.
All right. Thank you, Jensen. So let me just pull this all together. The foundation of everything that we've built, the foundation of everything we're building is our NPS. It is our ability to continuously differentiate. You can see that gap widening and we've only just got started. Our fundamental capabilities across network, value and experience is something we're working at every day to make that gap widen even further. And what that gives us is the plethora, the unparalleled set of growth opportunities that you can see above. And we're only scratching at the surface here. One of the big advantages is you get all of those growth opportunities with no drag of legacy.
And that combination of huge differentiation that will only widen with time. unleashing a set of growth opportunities is the heart of our story. That, in combination with this team in front of you, who have constantly set really big goes, gone out, smashed them and strive every day to exceed every number we give you is the heart of the T-Mobile story, and that's what drives outsized financial performance. And talking of outsized financial performance, I'd like to invite Peter Osvaldik on stage to talk to us. Thank you.
Please welcome Peter Osvaldik.
You can tell we're just a little bit excited, and it's not just because the Seahawks won the Super Bowl. Well, I thought that would be a little dangerous or close, but that's good. All right. Well, let's get into it. I thought I'd start a little bit with a look at Q4 and 2025. And as Srini and said, as Srini said, it's a little hard to click this clicker. Anyway, what is that strong differentiation deliver? It delivered industry-leading results yet again. 261,000 postpaid net account additions in Q4. Think about that. That's times what the other competitor who reports this delivered in Q4. And that's important because as Srini said, this is the center of value creation for the industry. And this proves consistently and scale that customers are choosing T-Mobile.
Combined with that growth in postpaid net accounts, we delivered postpaid ARPA growth of 2.7% on a year-over-year basis. And importantly, the organic growth was 3.6%. If you recall, as we had talked about before, our acquisitions of both Metronet and U.S. Cellular came with a base that had lower ARPU allowing us to run our playbook of ARPA expansion that we did so successfully both with Sprint as well as our base over time. That momentum between growth and ARPA expansion led to service revenue that was up 10% year-over-year on a reported basis and 5% year-over-year on an organic basis. That's 10x and 5x the next highest competitor for those keeping score. And I am. So that strength flowed through to adjusted EBITDA, which grew 7% year-over-year or 4% on an organic basis. And of course, the most defining metric for us is our ability to convert service revenue into free cash flow, which we did at 22% in Q4, topping off a year where we delivered it 25%. And that's important because it highlights a lot of the things that Srini was mentioning, the structural advantage of T-Mobile as expressed in terms of the best metric for value creation, provided, of course, you're not cutting CapEx and going backwards. If you're investing in the core business appropriately like we are for expansion and you're delivering 25% of free cash flow margin. That's the best measure are you able to create value for shareholders.
All right. So let's look ahead. What does this all mean? How does this formula this growing differentiation going to result an updated '26 and 2027 figures. So for '26, we now expect approximately $77 billion in service revenue, representing 8% top line growth -- that includes about $3.6 billion of contribution from M&A. So we have 6% organic growth and acceleration from what we just delivered in 2025. In '27, we now expect between $80.5 million and $81.5 billion in reported service revenue, 5% top line growth and includes $4 billion in contribution from M&A, so delivering 5% organic growth significantly ahead where we gave you just in September of 2024, our projections at Capital Markets Day. I think it's important if you step back, think about what we're delivering here at the high end of this guidance from 2025 to 2027, we're going to deliver more than $10 billion of service revenue growth.
Supporting that growth, as we've talked about, is strong postpaid net account growth. And our expectations for 2026, as we enter the year, are to generate between 900,000 and 1 million postpaid net account additions. And for those of you who are curious, and I know you are, implicit in that guide is an expectation of about 2.5 million postpaid phone net additions. Combined with that growth in postpaid net account additions, we anticipate postpaid ARPA growth of between 2.5% to 3%. And that's from all of the elements and ability to expand that Srini mentioned, it's new account inflow, taking our premium plans at 60% plus. It's our base as they interact with T Life and our experience stores taking on premium plans. It's continued expansion of connections per account and introducing new products and services into the account, which you can only do when you have a trust of customers, and that's evidenced from MPS.
And I'm pleased to share that we're now going to raise the bar on ourselves once again. You've heard a lot today about how we believe and we've long discussed and reported that postpaid account net additions and postpaid ARPA are the real correlation to value creation in this industry. Think about that. You have another competitor who delivered 600-some thousand postpaid phone net additions, but only 26,000 postpaid net account additions. The way you correlate how we're growing the service revenue and the translation into profitability is how we're actually able to attract and expand customer relationships. And that's best expressed by accounts and ARPA. As we said, over 90% of our postpaid phone lines are actually on a multiline account and a vast or a substantial portion of our 34-plus million postpaid accounts actually have products beyond just postpaid phone. So when you think about it that way, that's really the unit at which you create value as Srini has long said.
And beginning in Q1, long-standing, we've been focused on postpaid accounts and postpaid ARPA, and that will be our sole focus going forward. So we'll no longer be reporting subscriber level elements. Again, I've given you the underlying assumption, 2.5 million postpaid phones and that very strong $900,000 to $1 million postpaid net account additions, but this is what you should expect from us. This is the bar you should hold us to. This is the bar you should hold the rest of the industry to who can attract customers switch full relationships and who can grow those relationships in ARPA, that's how you get service revenue growth like we're delivering here. What does that mean for adjusted EBITDA? So in 2026, we now expect between $37 million and $37.5 billion, that includes about $1.3 billion from M&A contribution. So 10% reported growth and 7% organic growth, an expansion again from what we delivered in 2025.
In 2027, including $1.7 billion from M&A contribution, we expect 9% reported growth and 8% organic growth at the midpoint, again, further expanding on the growth that we're delivering in 2026, which is further expanding on the growth that we just delivered in 2025. And again, if I step back at the high end of the guidance, this means from 25 to 2027, we'll have delivered more than $7 billion of incremental core adjusted EBITDA getting us to between $40 million and $41 billion. This is, of course, driven by a number of things. One, continued profitable service revenue growth and operating leverage, as you've seen from the ability to attract customers generate postpaid account net additions and continue to expand ARPA. But it also comes from contributions of our unique approach to how we put the customer at the center of everything digitalize, create efficiencies, utilize AI, not for cost cutting as the primary focus, but for customer experience as the primary focus which generates significant efficiencies as a benefit, while at the same time, enhancing their experience, continuing to increase their NPS scores continuing to allow us to deliver customer switching. We now expect between 2026 and '27 -- relative to 2025, these initiatives are going to deliver $1.3 billion of incremental savings in 2026. And and $2.7 billion in 2027. But we're not done there. It's just the beginning of the journey.
There's a lot more expansion beyond 2027. And those come from a lot of the things you've been hearing from us our progress on digitalization and enhancement of the customer experience through as experience through T Life, beginning with upgrades, what we've been able to do with first assisted and then unassisted upgrades, now at a lines and prospects that allows a whole new world of how do you approach retail and approach retail with a focus on creating experienced stores, a rationalized retail structures more in-sourced more focused on customer experience that at the same time, drives efficiencies and value. You heard Srini, our incredible frontline and how they've reduced inbound customer contacts, but there's more to be done powered with intent CX now that frontline will be able to further reduce inbound customer contacts on the way to the goal that Jon Freier shared with you at our Capital Markets Day in 2024.
Customer-driven coverage. We've been talking about this since Capital Markets Day in 2024, a proprietary AI-infused model that allowed us to begin focusing CapEx dollars on where they matter most to customers. And if you put the CapEx dollars where they enhance customer value and experience the most, you get the most efficient deployment of CapEx. We've now been able to apply that model to the existing entirety of the network base. and we'll be able to start generating OpEx savings to allow for reinvestment. And the way we're doing that is we apply the same view to every one of our towers, every one of our small cells and said, which of these are driving the most customer value and concurrently, which are not driving the most customer value and we can streamline and optimize the network to reduce those and reinvest in those that are driving the most value. And of course, as you'd expect, like everybody else, but probably in a leadership fashion, there's a lot of efficiencies in the back office, in IT through utilization of simplicity, efficiency and AI. But if you do it from a customer centricity lens first, you get differentiated results.
Now 2026 is going to have a slightly different phasing to core adjusted EBITDA than 2025 had, which you'd expect because we're both delivering on synergies in the U.S. Cellular, and those will expand as we go through the year, but we're also going to harvest more of these AI and digitalization and simplicity savings as we go through the course of the year. So we expect Q1 core adjusted EBITDA to be between $9 billion to $9.1 billion. There's a few below-the-line items in 2026, I wanted to highlight as well. beginning with we expect approximately $1.2 billion in merger-related costs primarily related to U.S. Cellular. As you recall, we had an exciting announcement around our acceleration of the time line to integrate U.S. Cellular at 2 years. network optimization that I just mentioned, this CDC-based network optimization to generate value is going to result in a network optimization cost of approximately $450 million will be done through that primarily in Q1 and Q2, and we'll harvest those savings and reinvest into the network.
And we'll have workforce restructuring charges of approximately $150 million in Q1 as we go through our simplification initiatives and conclude what we began in Q4. CapEx. No big surprises here. We've mentioned to you before. We expect CapEx of $10 billion in 2026, and that includes all of the overlays around the U.S. cellular retained sites, all of the upgrades to those sites to bring all of the spectrum goodness there and start delivering even more better experiences to customers faster. In 2027, we anticipate CapEx to return to the normalized range of between $9 billion to $10 billion. And again, all of this from a network perspective will be deployed through the customer-driven coverage lens which means that every single dollar we put into the network goes to accrue to the highest customer experience improvements and hence, the best value delivery for us. while simultaneously expanding the network leadership and allowing for long-term growth.
Let's tumble down to adjusted free cash flow. And the short story here is we continue to deliver a cash generation profile and margin that is industry-leading. Free cash flow is expected to be between $18 million to $18.7 billion in 2026, growing to between $19.5 million to $20.5 billion in 2027. Now there's a number of things as you go through an integration that I want to highlight for 2026. We anticipate approximately $1.3 billion of merger-related cash outlays, again, primarily associated with that acceleration of the U.S. cellular integration. We also expect approximately $1.2 billion of cash outlays for the network optimization and workforce restructuring cost. That includes the workforce restructuring charges that we took in Q4 where the cash outflows will happen in 2026. And because we're accelerating that integration so dramatically, we now expect those costs to drop down significantly in 2027 to $1 billion. Cash taxes are expected to be $1.5 billion for 2026 and $3.5 billion in 2027, fully integrating the benefits we anticipate from the one big beautiful bill.
Now one important note is around cash interest. And I know a lot of you in this room like to model rapid deleveraging for us. So I wanted to just highlight that we take a very prudent approach in our guidance assumptions that we're delivering to you. And what we do is we assume leverage at 2.5x, which means we assume utilization of the entire strategic capacity envelope. We don't put any benefits into service revenue or core adjusted EBITDA for that. But for purposes of cash interest modeling as we give a free cash flow guide, we assume full utilization of that. And so that results in an assumption of $4.3 billion in cash interest outlays in 2026, stepping up to $5 billion in 2027. Just for perspective, on an apples to oranges in terms of what you're seeing in consensus because of that desire to deleverage us rapidly. And that means relative to consensus, this is about $500 million higher in 2026. And and $1.1 billion higher in 2027. So if you're trying to get an apples-to-apples comparison and understand what the underlying business expansion is doing that's something to look at, given how we prudently and I think, conservatively guide and assume the full utilization of the envelope.
And again, the most important part here is our ability to convert service revenue into free cash flow at industry-leading pace and that's a key differentiator for T-Mobile. And as I mentioned before, highlights the structural advantage that this business has and the ability to create shareholder value. Well, certainly, that growth in core adjusted EBITDA and a delivery of free cash flow and industry-leading service revenue margin means that there's a lot of capacity. And so how do we think about it? Well, we think about it very consistently with how we've shared it with you before, our capital allocation philosophy hasn't changed. It's disciplined, it's consistent and it's focused on maximizing value creation for shareholders. Begins with always setting a prudent leverage target, which we continually reassess both on our belief of the internal forecast of the business as well as what's happening from a macroeconomic perspective. We then prioritize investment in the core business.
As you see, not only can we deliver in the short term, but our ability to enhance and expand this network leadership by investing in the business prudently, it's what's going to generate continued differentiation for customers even beyond 2027. We focus on high ROI strategic investments, and I'll get into some of the ones that we've done there. And then our focus is to deliver with excess stockholder returns in a very balanced approach between dividends and share repurchases. And all of this is done with an eye on maximizing both midterm, short term, but just as importantly, long-term value creation. So with my last Super Bowl pun, let's do our own halftime show of what have we done? Since our Capital Markets Day in 2024, we funded strategic investments of approximately $12 billion. That included our acquisition of U.S. Cellular, included establishing the JVs with Metronet, Lumos, Bliss, Vistar as well as investing in spectrum for the long-term continued network leadership. We returned over $20 billion to shareholders balanced between dividends as well as share buybacks, which puts our total now since the program inception in Q3 of 2022 to over $45 billion.
Now as we look forward for the balance of 2026 and 2027, we have a remaining envelope of over $52 billion, driven again by that core EBITDA expansion and a free cash flow delivery. Our initial view of this is allocating up to $30 billion towards shareholder returns. That currently includes an assumption of approximately up to $10 billion in share repurchases per year. And I'm excited to announce today that we are accelerating our Q1 share buybacks to $5 billion, up to $5 billion, or double our run rate. And you might have seen Deutsche Telekom's announcement this morning, given the strength of the business and their belief in where we're going, as we've laid out for you today, they are not planning currently to sell any T-Mobile U.S. shares in 2026. And in fact, we're looking at strategic alternatives to further deepen their investment. I think between the acceleration of share buybacks in Q1 that you're seeing from us as well as DT statement that you can see the conviction in the business. And most importantly, we're always guided with respect to share buybacks and as to where our belief of the intrinsic value of this company is and where the trading dynamics are today.
Well, what does that leave? That leaves over $22 billion in a flexible envelope and we'll deploy that much as we've done in the past. It can be deployed for strategic ROI investments. It can be deployed potentially for further stockholder returns. And this all assumes a prudent 2.5x leverage assumption. And we're focused, again, on all of this, the focus remains on ensuring that we have the healthiest and the most strategically flexible balance sheet in the industry allowing us to capture opportunities for shareholder value creation as they come. I know you're very curious to get to Q&A. So let me just summarize quickly. I think as Srini mentioned, we have a tremendously growing differentiation not only has our current differentiation and where we've arrived with best network, best value and best experience is continue to deliver industry-leading results, both from customers selecting T-Mobile and our ability to translate that into outsized financial growth, top line, bottom line free cash flow. But we see the ability to grow this differentiation and continue to deliver outsized results in '26, '27 and beyond. So with that, we're going to get to Q&A. So if you can give us just a second to set up here, we'll get the team up and get to your questions. But thank you.
[Presentation]
Let's get to Q&A. We'll have mic runners across the room. Please raise your hands. If you've got a question, and please also introduce yourselves once you have the mic. I'll start with Peter since he's right there.
2. Question Answer
I wanted to ask about the change in your disclosure about the elimination of postpaid on subscriber reporting and, I guess, ARPA. If you could just expand on your thoughts behind that and how you think it allows you to run the business better and ultimately benefit shareholders.
Absolutely. Maybe I'll kick off and then hand off to you, Peter. So the change in reporting to me is actually comes from a conviction of what do we want to focus on? What do we want to double down on. accounts, and I think of them as relationships because these are really families and businesses. That's the fundamental way in which consumers buy. 90% of our postpaid lines belong to a multiline account. It's how consumers buy and it's where value gets created. It's the thing that's most correlated with CLB. And from our perspective, this team and everyone on the front line is incentivized on accounts, is incentivized on relationships.
We want that alignment to exist between how consumers buy, what creates value, how this team is incentivized. And that, in our minds, raises the bar in the industry. because it drives this conversation on how many relationships have you actually bought it, right? And that's, to us, the fundamental unlock and the most transparent way of thinking about the P-times-Q equation.
Yes. I mean, as I mentioned, and fundamentally, what underpins that is the fact that the vast majority of our customer accounts have deep relationships. So you need to think about both as you're approaching new accounts coming in, but also as you're thinking about the base and expansion of ARPA, now over 90% of our postpaid phone lines are multiline accounts. A significant portion of our accounts have products beyond phone lines, whether that's tablets, watches, our very successful broadband offering where we're the most bundled player in that space, and we can get into that. I'm sure there'll be questions around that later. So when you think about how do I, one, think about the customer relationships.
Customers don't think about their relationship with T-Mobile is I have 3 different relationships or 3.5 different relationships. They think about it as one. And when you win that trust over as demonstrated by MPS, that allows you to expand and give them new products, whether it's connectivity products or more importantly, as we demonstrated, when you have a platform like T-Life, with 24 million monthly active users, meaning they're using, I think, 4 times a month it allows you a completely differentiated experience. It's not just I interact with my customer base once every couple of years when they come into the store. Now I can interact with them on a multi monthly basis to introduce them one into new products like T-Mobile, Visa but also help them understand how we can expand in a win-win, a more-for-more construct the relationship with them, and that's what gives us the confidence to think about ARPA expansion the way we are. So it's really fundamentally how the customer buys. It's how we're thinking about the relationships.
And honestly, when you think about it, just focusing on postpaid phones and postpaid phone ARPU is one small portion of the postpaid service revenue line and doesn't really correlate as well as accounts in ARPA to what you've been able to do with service revenue growth over time. That's why you see such different -- how can you be 600,000 and 900,000 and suddenly have such different -- wildly different expectations for 2026 service revenue delivery? It's because we're focused on the actual unit of value creation and how customers think.
And even when you restricted to postpaid phone, very few people go out and buy one line, right? Phones shopped as a family, as a business, and that's what drives consumer behavior. And that's what our North Star should be
Okay. Let's go over to Sebastian Tishan.
Can you just help us think about the long-term penetration rate implied within your broadband guidance of 12 million to 15 million passings is how you've at least discussed it in the past. And so it would imply penetration below 30%. And so -- just help us maybe contextualize that what you're seeing in the market today as well with the type 2 fiber launch?
Yes. The fiber is tracking all of the things that we set out to do with it. and we're tracking well on plan. When you think about long-term penetration though, the thing you need to remember is we'll still be building, right? And so what you're looking at is what is cohort level penetration, then it will be higher than that number you're looking at purely because we'll still be building. You want to?
No, I think what we're seeing in terms of how the brand translates, how channel translates, we're seeing everything we expected to see, and we're very happy with the progress. As Srini said, we need to look at this in a prospect of we're still going to be building at a relatively fast pace as we go to '27, '28, '29 30. So for a lot of the cohort we will have, we won't be a terminal penetration, which usually happens more towards year 3, year 4. So that's why you have these numbers that look to be below 30%, but they won't be on a terminal cohort perspective. They will be significantly higher than that.
Great. I'm going to go to John Hodulik and then Walt up there.
First, a follow-up to that. How many homes passed do you guys have now? So what's the build rate going forward? And did you guys talk about the cost per build -- and then just maybe a broader question on the wireless market. Just what are you seeing in terms of competition? Do you still think that the business has pricing power? I know we're trying to get away from ARPU here. But just sort of the drivers are clearly churn and ARPU, how do you see ARPU trending and your ability to price? And then maybe just for Cathy, are we going to get churn account churn going forward be able to sort of assess the health of the business.
Maybe I'll start with the phone competition and the wireless market, then you can talk about account churn and Andre, you can pick up broadband question there in one question. So let's start with the first one. What are we seeing in the wireless market? Look, as always in this market, you kind of go through cycles of promotions. You kind of go through periods in time when there are lots of free phones. We saw that happen in Q4. We're feeling very good about where we are. Now in Q4, specifically, like Peter said, in a very competitive cycle, we outgrew the only other person who reports accounts 10 to 1, right?
So we're feeling really good about the strength of this business. The momentum that it's driving. And I've said this before, look, promotions are things we over-rotate on. There's a direction of travel, and that direction of travel is driven by differentiation. That's why you get this exceptional performance -- this was our highest postpaid phone lines if the we don't talk about much since the merger, right, in the context of record beating accounts, right? And when you're talking about pricing power and kind of our ability to grow the relationship, it's a composite of 3 different things. It's the fact that our POS naturally tend up because of our back book, front book dynamic and the premium plan loading, which is why we're guiding to 2.5% to 3% on ARPA. Our back book also means that there are opportunities for us to look at pricing. Underlying our guide of where -- and Peter unpacked the $2.5 million is also an ARPU of $1 million to $1.5 million. So we do see ARPU growth happening in '26, even though that's not the primary thing that we're focused on.
And the last bit is expanding our relationship, which is through fixed wireless, which is through fiber, which is through everything else we do. So we see a lot of ability to grow both volume and value in this market. I'll leave you with one final piece, which kind of reflects our value-oriented view of the world, when you look at just the month of December, and this is something we track very closely -- and Mike and I were talking yesterday, the value of our port-ins was 15% higher than our port outs. So when you think of what drives value creation in this business, even in an intensely competitive month like December, we saw significantly higher values in than out. Do you want to pick up the account churn?
Yes. I have to give transparency around this metric, we'll absolutely be reporting account-based churn.
And on homes passed, we don't disclose it. These are joint ventures. The only thing we can say is we're tracking to where we want it to be tracking, and we will hit the 12 million to 15 million homes passed by 2030. So that's something we are very confident about.
Just on the 6% service and 5% service and '26, '27, respectively, any -- is that mostly core, right? So can you give us a sense of like the size today of the advertising business? You talked about T Life, $24 million, it seems like monetization there. edge compute, maybe some monetization there. Are any of these things, maybe you can rank order them stuff that could add 50, 100 basis points to service revenue growth. So maybe like size what you got now in advertising and then anything that material, not even can go beyond '27, '28, '29, anything that can give you 50, 100 basis points?
Yes. I would say, as you're absolutely right, Walt, it's -- majority of it is core growth. I think as Srini mentioned earlier on, there's actually nothing in the plan with respect to edge or AI RAN or any of that opportunity. Now we see it and we're in a leadership position. I think it's going to drive fundamental growth whether any of it comes in, in a meaningful manner by '27, I don't know, that's potential upside. I think you've seen us talk about a lot of other new business opportunities, including the very successful early but tremendously successful launch of the first foray into financial services with T-Mobile Visa, that's potential upside to the plan. That's not incorporated into it. And T Ads has very prudent but small growth assumptions in it. It's going tremendously well.
But that's a business that we think could certainly in our belief, not all in the plan, only a little bit of that is in the plan could be a significant growth driver, not in just 2027, but beyond. So we're trying to be very prudent in terms of the new growth opportunities and how much of that is actually in the plan versus how much of that is potential outperformance.
I wanted to ask about the comments around potentially moving away from device subsidies. Is that something that you see happening industry-wide potentially? And what are the implications of that just given where we are in the product upgrade cycle and how you see that impacting the gross adds or drop opportunity for next year?
Thanks, Mike. I'll keep this brief, and I'll hand off to my cats to talk a little more about it. There's not that much we're going to be able to say about this right now. for obvious reasons. But I think there's -- the principle for us is really important. We think when the industry starts moving away from win-win economics for investors and customers. We need to step in and change the direction of it. And our sense is this is a point in time where we're beginning to see some of that drift, right? I'll let Katz talk about that in more detail. Mike, do you want to?
Yes. Sri talked a lot about differentiation and how important differentiation is for us and for customers. And I think that's a great example of it. Like you can't make the iPhones any freer than they are today. And the truth is, is customers phone purchases a point in time. It happens once every couple, 3 years. And between those times, they're living with their wireless service every single day. And we think customers expect and demand more from us than just a free phone deal every 3 years.
And that's why what the value that we've built into the plan is so important because it's a reminder to customers every single day of these incredible benefits that they're getting -- incredible benefits. T-Mobile customers save $1,000 a year relative to competitors, both because of the core rate plan savings, the front book, back book dynamics that Srini talked about, but incredible not niche benefits, incredible benefits that our customers use at scale. In fact, T-Mobile customers of these Magenta status and T-Mobile Tuesdays benefits. On average, most of our customers use multiple of those every single month. So that's where we think we can create the real differentiation. And phones, everybody does great deals on phones. It's what happens in between the phone purchases, I think where T-Mobile really stands out.
And 2 point on subsidies and kind of what that means for jump balls and the rest were. And when we plan the year, when we plan ahead, we look at jump balls, we look at competitive intensity, and our guide incorporates all of that, both the 900,000 to 1 million and underlying that order of magnitude, 2.5 million debt, which is kind of where we're positioned right now. And on subsidies, we will always be competitive with phones. It's really changing the center of gravity of the conversation, to stuff that creates sustained value, which is all the stuff Mike is talking about because also from an economics perspective, that's where we believe real CLVs are.
Great. Let's go over to Kannan, please.
So I guess a couple of questions on the broadband business. The first is when you look at the service revenue mix going forward, I mean, the guidance that you guys have provided -- how much of that growth comes from the broadband business specifically and more in general, the newer businesses? If you can help us understand that. And then from a margin perspective, I mean, there's a lot of things you mentioned today like focus on ARPA, less subsidies potentially more focus on the back book price and so on.
All of this would imply that your core organic wireless margins should step up at a faster pace going forward than it's been so far because there's less focus potentially on volumes. So if you could just help us parse through some of these details to understand what's in the mix of EBITDA and revenues, that would be helpful.
Let me take the first -- thanks, Kannan. So the question really on wireless you're asking is an operating leverage question, right? And you are seeing, as we move from '26 '25 to '26 to '27, really strong improvement in operating leverage at the EBITDA level. So you're going from 5 and change because you shared the x M&A numbers as well to 7 to 7 and change almost on -- and that's a reflection of the fundamental operating leverage improvement, both in terms of our focus on ARPA the ARPA growth as well as some of the cost reductions that Peter talked about. In terms of the broadband piece, Peter, do you want to pick that up?
Yes. It's all -- we don't report segments because we don't run the company that way. We run the company as you heard today, in terms of customer relationships and ARPA expansion. So broadband is an important element of how we get to ARPA expansion. In fact, again, we're the most bundled in terms of successful ability to take customers and either customers and then sell our broadband product into it or have broadband-only customers get introduced to the power of the T-Mobile network and then expand their product set there. So it's all implicit within the ARPA guide in there.
And then when you run the business, inclusive of synergies and integration and all of that, we're really thinking about it as one business and one operating leverage. Even for example, on new businesses, ability to utilize T Life, as I was speaking about earlier, to not only self-serve or help improve the experience with our amazing frontline and customer owned retail stores and our experienced stores but it also then provides a platform for new business growth, cross-sell, all that. So that's why we think about it in totality. And I think when you step back, what I'd look at is you're driving, again, at the high end from $25 million to $27 million, $10 billion of service revenue growth, and you're going to drop $7 billion of EBITDA growth as part of that. That's the all-in number that we're looking at as well as are we actually able to deliver in an industry-defining way free cash flow margins on service revenue?
Let's go over to Greg Williams.
Greg Williams, TD Cowen. Just wanted to get your updated view on your appetite for additional spectrum. There's presumably more spectrum out in the marketplace today as we think about your M&A flexibility envelope?
Great. Well, thanks for that. The way we've thought about Spectrum historically will be consistent with that is every piece of spectrum that comes up, we look at it on a build versus buy basis, right? What would it cost to densify versus buying the spectrum. And that's why we walked away from things like the EchoStar spectrum. We fundamentally believed it was too expensive. Now that said, we're incredibly committed to maintaining spectrum leadership and network leadership. And we're looking forward to how this plays out in the auctions.
Our view on that, again, is we'll do the same there's kind of 3 things, right? One, the build versus buy, two, looking at the spectrum that comes up in terms of consistency with our existing spectrum holding, and three, a commitment to maintaining our spectrum leadership. Those 3 things together will drive what we do with spectrum acquisitions. And you've seen where needed, we've been incredibly disciplined about the valuation of that spectrum and where it makes sense. The good news is there's a lot of new spectrum coming with the one big beautiful bill, which will drive valuations of that spectrum as well, just from a supply perspective.
Yes. And the beauty of it is, of course, we only guided through '27 today. But obviously, we have aspirations of growing beyond '27, both from a core EBITDA perspective and a free cash flow perspective. And so you just see how much capacity this business is creating. And because we're so prudent and strategic with how we allocate capital, that creates capacity for all of the things, so to speak. And when you think about run this out to '28 to '29 '30, when who knows the timing of all the potential spectrum opportunities, but you're creating a lot of meaningful capacity to think about wisely in terms of investment.
Let's go over to Frank and then 2 down from Frank.
So can you walk us through the economics of the financial services business with the credit cards? What is sort of the opportunity there in terms of revenue and EBITDA? And is that something that would get folded into ARPA?
Yes. We're not -- we haven't broken that out separately. It's early days. But just think about -- what -- as we mentioned, the way we look at new businesses, and this is very consistent with how Mike Katz laid it out at the Capital Markets Day in 2024. Where can we bring significant scale and the assets that we have, meaning we have trusted customer relationships. We have our network assets. We have our distribution assets.
We have now an app that has 24 million multiple times a month, monthly active users, which means you can and we have data, particularly on our base, meaning we can do advantaged credit decisioning. -- there's a reason. I mean, we've been really tremendously strong and the capabilities we've delivered some by necessity from where the Un-carrier began in terms of being able to deal with subprime and near-prime populations. Q4 was another quarter we delivered much lower bad debt as a percentage of total revenue than AT&T or Verizon. It's because of the capabilities and the data sets. -- and making sure that we create better customer value, better customer experiences. So think about financial services. There's a lot of great ideas out there. And I think we have them too.
One of the big barriers to great ideas getting in the hands of customers and changing and improving the customer experience in financial services is honestly CAC, right? I mean a lot of these business ideas get killed because of customer acquisition costs. We can change that whole paradigm. We have T Life. You have trusted relationships with 34 million accounts. If you're thinking about postpaid phone, that's 85 million postpaid phone users out there, and they're using T Life. And now you can bring them a better product, perhaps even something that can't even get in the financial service space because of our advantaged credit decisioning and data opportunities. And you can do it at a customer acquisition cost that nobody else can touch. So that's the -- that's one way to think about that opportunity. That's how we're thinking about the financial service opportunity. There's very little in the plan from a financial service perspective.
When the CFO is the biggest proponent of this, I don't have to say much. But listen, fully aligned, I think, as Peter said, we always look at this as a win-win for the customers. And what we're seeing today is the ability to not have some of these industry legacy either revenues in the backlog, like you see it in FWA, right? There's a great advantage of being able to flow through all this growth, greenfield because we don't have a back book to protect. Now in new -- in some of these industries, like financial services, we have no backlog.
The second thing is our clear advantage in terms of access to customers leveraging our NPS scores that are leading -- industry-leading and the fact that we have acquisition capabilities, both on retail and on digital with Life allows us to create these win-win relationships that we were talking about when we were talking about wireless, the same approach to this industry, right? And you think about the credit card industry, financial services or advertisement. These are all industries that have opportunities to create a lot more win-win with customers, and that's what we're focused on. That's what's going to guarantee us growth beyond what we're putting in the targets we have today.
Avi Greengart, Techsponential. So we've been talking mostly about consumer. I was curious how your expectations of business or enterprise growth play into your guidance going forward?
So we see a huge opportunity in business. We've talked about double-digit revenue growth for the next 3 years. It will probably run for the next 5, the reality. The reason we see that huge opportunity comes back to the position we've put ourselves in from a network perspective. A lot of our growth today is coming from differentiated things only our network can offer from the most obvious example of that key priority where our ability to slice and our ability to build that network creates a clear win with TFB customers. But it also goes through things like when people do RFPs based on large-scale testing of networks. We clearly win in those cases. So we see a lot of upside across everything from SMB to enterprise to government.
Okay, let's go over to Dave Barden.
Dave Barden from New Street Research. I guess my first question would be Srini. Could you elaborate a little bit on your understanding with DT about how long they will cease to contribute their shares into the stock buyback program and kind of the framework that we should expect that, that will operate under as we forecast? And I guess the second question would be, with respect to presumably any incremental ambition for fiber expansion is the best way for fiber expansion for T-Mobile to use the existing Lumos and Metronet partnerships to let them do the expansion? Or do you want to create -- or would you be willing to create new partnerships go and take advantage of other opportunities to kind of create a portfolio of fiber companies. So thanks for the question.
I'll pick up the fiber piece and Peter, maybe you can talk about the share buyback stuff. So on fiber, our view on this has been clear. We see fiber as a real opportunity to create customer and equity value. We're not targeting a number. We're certainly not targeting a number of homes passed. So we're not kind of keen on how much fiber lays outside multiple buildings, right? We're keen on building a business that creates equity value and creates value for customers. Today, everything you saw was based on the Lumos Metronet expansion. So all the numbers we presented today is the assets we have currently. Are we open to looking at more assets? Yes, at the right price. Because we're not going to sit here with a gun to our head on, hey, we're going to cover this many streets forget customers and then work back from that while people inflate their prices when they have a discussion with us.
Are we open to more assets? Yes, they need to be at the right price. Just from our -- the way we think of the way this market works are 15 million customers that we've now announced till 2030, if you were to equate that to fiber homes passed -- that's above $40 million already. You take 12 plus 15 of fiber homes passed. We're going to be in 50-plus million from a homes-pass count perspective. It's a count we think is actually precisely irrelevant. But if that's the count you want to do, that's order of magnitude where we are. So my view on fiber is absolutely interested in looking at other assets and other scalable platforms, but they need to be at the right price to create value.
Yes. Look, as our majority investor, I can't really speak to their intentions, right? I mean we're focused on running and creating value creation for T-Mobile U.S. shareholders, and Deutsche Telekom as an investor, obviously, has their own motivation. So I can't speak to their long-run thought process or their decision-making around it. That really is something you have to ask DT. What I'd step back and say is, what they laid out and what they disclosed this morning, I think it's driven by what we laid out here and shared with you is we created a great vision for outsized growth in our September 2024 Capital Markets Day and today increase that vision.
I think give you all the kind of pieces around how we believe this growth can continue way beyond 2027 and deliver industry-leading results beyond. And we're not sharing that guidance here today. We're focused on '26 and '27 and then our own conviction. Again, we are always guided by how the plan that we've put together, including our internal views of it informs us around the intrinsic value range of this company? And where are the shares trading today? And if we believe there's a significant discount to that, that informs our approach to what we recommend to the Board from a share buyback perspective. And I imagine since obviously, Deutsche Telekom has the ability to see all of this in their roles on our Board, they're also convicted with the plan. In fact, they said so to be able to say we're not actually going to sell any of our shares in 2026, whether that's into the share buyback or on the open marketplace.
And in fact, we're going to look at strategic opportunities to potentially enhance our shareholder holdings. So it's our long-run belief in this business, that's what convicted us to actually double the pace of Q1 share buybacks to $5 billion. And I think those statements will have to speak for their own. But I think it's a similar mindset.
For a minute there, I thought Peter was going to guide for '28.
Mike Funk from Bank of America. So I think the last Capital Markets Day, there was a slide where you showed the drivers of switching activity in wireless. And the primary drivers, I believe, were network quality, customer experience and then kind of price and value were lower down. So based on the K-shape economy that we're in, have those drivers changed? And how does that inform your comments about device subsidy?
Everything we see suggests those are still the big drivers. I want to double-click on a couple of them, right? So network quality, we spent a lot of time on. On value, just to be clear, we will zealously guard our value position. And one of our -- one of the reasons Mike and I talked about how value is being interpreted in this market that reflects our focus on continuing to guard that value position. What's important to us though is to guard it where it matters for customers, not to guard it in places which destroy value, right, either for customers or us. Like -- and that's part of the debate on the whole subsidy piece in terms of if phones are lasting longer, if they're becoming more expensive, what you're finding is more freer but then baked into price and there's a gotcha somewhere.
How do we move this industry to a place where we truly deliver value because we think value is always important irrespective of the state of the industry, and we will stay at the forefront of it. It's how we do it that really matters and doing it in a manner that resonates with customers. I still see those as the big drivers, and we will be the best at all 3.
Chad, did you have a question?
A couple of questions around AIRM. How are you thinking about AI going and connect the dots for us going into 60? And can we expect in 2026? And then a question around T satellite, the impact you have seen of satellite in the last 6 months.
Okay. So let me do the T satellite piece and then hand over to John Saw. It depends on how long you have because you get them started talking about AI Ran and 6G, we could be here for a while. Let's talk about T satellite. Look, T satellite, from our perspective has been a huge success. It was a world first when we worked with StarLink to create a functioning direct-to-sell, service. It's hard to do. We're actually making a satellite going at high speed talking to a moving mobile phone is not easy to do. It is fundamentally a complementary product. And the physics and the economics of that business will make it stay that way.
I mean, it's great for the 500,000 square miles of uncovered America to have an alternative, but let's be realistic. Manhattan. I want my wireless network. And that's our understanding, and that's, I think, the emerging understanding across the industry that this is a great complementary service. We love the work we've done. We like our partnership very much with StarLinks. So that's kind of where I am on satellite. And now over to Dr. Saw for 6G and AI Ran.
So Jan, AI RAN, we think, has a tremendous potential to transform the future of mobile networks, especially at our last Capital Markets Day, we announced the creation of the AI and innovation center with some of our key partners I Nokia and Ericsson to develop and test a new architecture. We really wanted to push the industry to think about a new architecture with more powerful compute that allows us to actually not just process telco workloads, but also AI workloads at the same time. And like Srini said up earlier, we see a future network where you were able to not just process bits but also tokens. And why is that important? I think you heard Jensen and Srini talked about the emergence of physical AI right? Today, as big as AI is, it's focused on generative AI. TAM is about $4 billion to $5 billion, which is huge. But it's really a digital space enhancement. It's focused on the IT economy. And wait until you see physical -- basically AI moving into the physical world and start interacting with it. And that's physical AI. And that's why we see the potential there.
If you talk about tokens the basic compute unit for AI is tokens, right? And with information -- with generative AI, tokens are usually just information tokens. They can be processed in a few seconds. It basically gives you good analytics of the world. But with physical AI, tokens are going to be moving. They're going to take action, right? We called it kinetic move, right? When tokens move, when things move with AI, I think it gives telecom operators a license to play in a big opportunity with physical AI. It could be worth if you believe some experts, hundreds of trillions of dollars, that's a total 10, right? And we believe that is the connective tissue for physical AI, right? And it is going to be the intelligent fabric that connects data centers, network edge as well as AI devices itself. So 6G is not just the connecting pipe, but really the nervous system for physical AI. That is why we are focused on AI RAN. We wanted to change the way compute is done in telco for generations now and bringing a more powerful compute model that does tokens and this. So we're making good progress. Since then, we have got both Nokia and Ericsson now being able to make full voice calls through the NVIDIA platforms. And towards the end of 2026, we expect to start some field trials.
Okay. Let's go over to Jonathan Kees and then I think Ben Swiber.
Jonathan Kees from Daiwa Capital Markets. Great presentation. Wanted to ask specifically, I guess, follow up on a question earlier about churn. Q4 churn was pretty elevated for both postpaid and prepaid for 2025, in for 2024. And that's with your NPS scores going up with leveraging your differentiation of the value add that you provide, I guess, how do you see churn going forward? And from what I heard earlier, sounds like you're just going to be giving churn of accounts versus per phone going forward? And then the second thing I wanted to ask is how much are you going to leverage price increases, especially legacy plans in terms of the service revenue growth?
So let me start with churn. So clearly, NPS and churn are hugely correlated. What I think we saw in was also a normalization of churn as an industry as a whole because you went through these years with 36-month contracts and suppression of churn. Now when you look at '25 as a whole, our increase in churn, which is 7 bps on is the lowest amongst the 3 players, right, which is just an indication of the NDS stuff playing through. Even in Q4, when you talked about elevated, I think we went up 10 bps and everyone else went up for 10 to 14 bps. And -- but importantly, if you look at full year '25, I think what you saw was a normalization of overall churn rates. They went back to what they were effectively before the suppression of the 36-month contract. -- right?
And our view on account churn again is that's the big number to look at because again, when you look at the value loss that happens when an entire account leaves you, that's truly -- that truly hurt [indiscernible] versus you take an inactive account which somebody suddenly realizes this line, I'm not using and decides to move away from it, that actually doesn't cause any value loss. That's why we're focused on account churn rather than online share. The other question?
Rate increases.
As yes. So on -- look, our view on this is what will drive ARPA is a composite of 3 things. The biggest 2 will be the fact that we have this front book back book dynamic, which means as your premium plan lowered in the front book, you naturally see a growth in ARPA. The second is expanding our relationships from time to time, we will look at specific cases, and we did one in January, where we think there is a case with the legacy book to look for price changes, and these are really rate plan optimizations.
One other thing I'd say is this really underscores the importance of the strategy that we have about the included services and differentiation in our premium plans because it gives reason that customers a reason to move up in rate plan by choice. And that strategy has been really successful. I mean, there's meaningful differentiation between our experience more plan and our experience beyond plan. And customers that are looking for those benefits by up themselves, both at acquisition, but also during their life cycle. And that is unique to T-Mobile. Nobody else packs these benefits inside the plan.
And just to underscore Mike's point, that natural upgrade cycle is not purely an acquisition play and premium plan loading. It also happens in the life cycle which is why we're guiding to 2.5% to 3% ARPA, 1% to 1.5% underlying that from ARPU.
It's also -- there was a tidbit you dropped that I'm not sure everybody picked up, and that is the delta and the value we saw with switching. So churn isn't always unhealthy. We've been very successful in the pre reduction of churn environment and now back to the normalized churn environment, and you saw in December a 15% delta between the value of accounts coming in and the value of accounts leaving. And there's a lot of [indiscernible] in the industry. We're trying to be very transparent around it. That's how you get the growth. That's -- then when you combine it with ARPA, you get the service revenue that's completely different from a profile perspective. We just promised you service revenue growth versus one competitor who said 0% for wireless service revenue growth. This is where it comes from.
We just promised you that service revenue growth actually going into core EBITDA growth and 10% headline growth and 7% organic growth. And that's with contract assets flat. That's assumed in our guidance, unlike some others who are really loading more and more discount onto the balance sheet, another way to move around core adjusted EBITDA, which is why you need to think and look all the way through to free cash flow generation. Again, provided you're making the right investments in the business, and you think you've seen today from us, we certainly are to expand our network margin of leadership, how much free cash flow you can generate out of service revenue is probably the best predictor.
So we're going to Ben Swinburne and then we'll do San [indiscernible] right behind that.
So I want to ask you about Tea Life digitization. And I think it connects to the I think Peter said $2.7 billion of savings, I believe, is out in '27. I know that's not all to life, but that's a piece of it. What are you doing to make sure that this migration is customer led. I think pretty clear it's good for your business to move to a digital provisioning model, but your retail distribution, your frontline people are obviously core to your NPS, your strong position with the consumer. And I guess I would imagine there might be some risk you sort of push the consumer in places that maybe impacts that NPS core. How are you guys managing all that? Because there are some big savings Peter has outlined.
No, absolutely. We've been incredibly thoughtful about this. we haven't driven digital and AI from a -- we're going to lay off this 20,000 people because we need the cost from it. We started with -- and this is why this has been a 3-year journey. Step 1 was building the capabilities. having our IT in place, having the digital in place. Step 2 was customer adoption, which is actually working with customers and then moving them to assisted digital and step 3 is now scaling. But really the person who should talk about this in the most remarkable transformation that's seen in a frontline and customer-centric way as Jon because he's driven a lot of this jump.
Yes. It's a great question and it's something that we are taking ourselves, which is really what we want to do is we want to meet customers where they are. And we need to be honest about this. that like stores open from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m., and that's the only time you can do business or when you call 611 and you reach one of our [indiscernible] that's not meeting customers where they are. People want more power and capability right on these smart screens to be able to do things, access T-Mobile Tuesdays, all the Magenta status benefits, transacting, changing a plan, adding the feature, remove in the future, all those things, and we want to be able to do that.
At the same time, there's a lot of customers who have some anxiety about like, hey, all these promotions and the complexity, I need someone to help me with that. And what we want to also do is lean into this experienced store format. We've got hundreds of these stores up and running and then in-source more of our selling and service versus outsourcing. Strategy 101, you outsource what you're not core competent on and you in-source what you are core competent on. And what we feel just incredibly proud of is the way that we go to retail, the way that we do customer care, and we want to do more and more of that ourselves. And I said this at the Capital Markets Day back in September 2024, that ultimately, the role of retail is changing. We don't want it to be a center of just transaction. That's 30 years ago. What we wanted to be a center of experience. How do you discover? How do you experience new products and services. Think about everything that John talked about just a few moments ago and what's coming with 6G, and physically and understanding and learning about that in our stores. We want that to happen.
And at the same time, we want to build more and more expertise. We're proud of this 45 Net Promoter Score that we have. You saw what Srini just shared just a little while ago in terms of how that has really separated not only in the top 100 markets, but also in smaller markets and rural areas as well. We're leading in NPS versus our principal competitors versus everybody in those markets. We see an opportunity to further that gap. We're not like reading our press clean we're like, okay, that's good, but we have ambitions to push that past 50. And we are sweating everything that we can do between the digital experiences and the technology that we're building in T Life and then empowering our people and creating T Life as a platform. So no matter if you call customer care or walk into a store, or do it yourself at 11:00 at night after you put the kids to bed, it's the same system, the same platform. And if you need our help and you need our expertise, we're going to be there for you. And if you can do it on your own, we want to meet you where you are as well.
Sorry, 2 quick questions. The first one on guidance and phones. I think we've got pretty that's, yes, we all got pretty comfortable in the last few years kind of having a good feel about what the guidance implies and then the end result on the beats on phone nets. Is there any reason to think that the way you're guiding on postpaid accounts is kind of conceptually different from how you used to guide on postpaid phones? And then the second question was on the better value plan that you launched a few weeks back. I don't know if there's any early signs on kind of upsell in the existing base or if it's having any meaningful impact yet.
So to your question on phone nets versus accounts, Sam. Look, our guidance philosophy remains the same. We go out and put a tough number out there, and then this team works its socks off to beat that. That will remain the same. In terms of historic ratios, they've -- historically, we've had 2.8 phones per account. Now you can see with our guide about 2.5 with to 1 million. We're also assuming a certain amount of growth on fiber. We're assuming a certain amount of growth on fixed wireless, which may not on day 1 come with the bundle. So that's the way you should think about it. Nothing changes from the way we guide. -- right, in terms of our philosophy of setting a number out there, which we think is the right number, given what the industry -- where the industry is at, given the number of jump-ball, given the competitive state of it and then going after and working our socks off to beat it. Better value? Mike, do you want to?
Yes. I mean I think better value is a good example of a lot of things that we've been talking about here today, where we built a plan that was really built around family savings and switching your family over to T-Mobile and how much you can save with that plan, not just not just today and not just this year, but every year relative to competition. And like we said here many, many times already, we think that's important because customers aren't just picking based off of a free phone in a point of time. It's what can we deliver for customers every day, both in value and in network. And that plan was designed to do that. So I know we're not going to get into lot of details this quarter, but so far, the plan is doing exactly what we expected to do and it's been great.
We'll go, Eric, and then there.
Eric Luebchow from Wells Fargo. I wanted to dive into the $15 million fixed wireless target you have [indiscernible] maybe you could talk about kind of the pacing to get here as we look out in 2026. You've been adding close to 2 million new fixed wireless subs a year. And maybe you could talk a little bit as well about the distribution of geography. I think historically, this has been a product that's been more in urban areas, it's been more consumer-led. Are you seeing any broadening of that as you move into more rural markets as you sell more into the enterprise, that would be great.
So I guess a few things. One, phasing of that move, that's -- we are where we are right now, and we've constantly outrun whatever phasing we had on this product because the demand has been so strong on the back of -- so we'll see what that phasing lands up playing out like over the next few years. We'll also see what that 15% looks like with time. That's all we can really see at this point in time. It's our -- it's our most conservative view on where we'd get to based on the assumption of no additional spectrum, based on assuming no spectral efficiency with 6G, all of those, honestly, will have a bigger impact than purely our run rate, right?
On geographies and kind of segments we're in, we're absolutely going to expand that product into business. which is great because that is the definition of fatal capacity. I think increasingly, and Andre, you might want to comment on this. I think the urban versus rural SKUs are less true, especially as we grow into SMRA.
Yes. So both, as Srini said, I think one is the SKU will always exist. It's a matter of density. But you saw Srini and John talk about the progress we're making in SMRA and that obviously translates with time also on our ability to compete in those markets. Again, we go back to we have the highest NPS in these markets. and we have the strongest network position. So that is translating and will continue to translate. And again, another opportunity to -- that gets us comfortable with the $15 million number, which is we're still under index in areas where we have the best network and we have the best NPS -- in B2B, it's something that we've launched and we've been successful at, but we're still in early days of this. I think B2B in wireline is a great opportunity for fixed wireless access. And you will see us over the next couple of months. innovating a lot what broadband and what Internet connection means for B2B. So stay tuned.
But there's a big opportunity. As you know, there's a big -- and you see it in -- so what other players are putting out. There's a big transition of technology happening in B2B from traditional connectivity based on Ethernet and PLS towards much more of an underlay-overlay split where you start seeing more traditional Internet connections being the baseline of connectivity and then them being complemented with SD-WAN and SASE solution. That's a huge opportunity because that allows us to get into that space. without having to carry the legacy and the complexity of having to run complex support systems, for customers. So that is opening up. Technology is moving in a way, both on FWA capacity capabilities, but also on the way customers want to buy that technology that gives us opportunity in B2B connectivity as we go forward.
We have time for one last question that's going to come from Matt [indiscernible]
Great Matt Harrigan StoneX. When you look at the simple math on the switching effects, it's much more powerful than the unit growth in the market. You've got some huge tailwinds, 24% penetration and device innovation helps you look at iPhone 17. You got the still very sticky lag in the network perception but if we did have unthinkably an economic slowdown on the low end of the K at least, probably already having that. Maybe you couldn't hit the 2.5, but do you think you could get near that number because -- and honestly, maybe your other actors would be more price rational in that environment, who knows. But do you think you can get substantial growth even if we do finally get a recession?
This is why -- I mean, thanks for the question. This is why we have zealously protected value over the years, right? We've always believed that we need to be resilient to any economic climate even though we understand that our category in many ways, is the most resilient to economic change, right? We are as a category where never a lot of people ask us, what's happening with bad debt what's happening? Are there any signs of a consumer slowdown. And my response to that typically is we're never the canary in a gold mine, right? We're just -- it is such an essential that we're very, very resilient to economic cycles. That said, what this team is absolutely passionate about is not losing our value heritage. And that's why, over the years, as our competitors at various points in time have use their pricing power, quote on quote , which has put up prices on existing customers without really doing more for more. We've been very thoughtful and choiceful and we will be going forward as well on where we do any rate plan optimization. Because staying best value is absolutely critical to our ethos and that's what, even in a world where economic times get harder. And even in the off chance that the category gets more value seeking, I think we're incredibly well cushioned and protected against that eventuality.
In fact, we're certainly not forecasting that. But if you see a world future where there might be more of a consideration and flight to value because of macroeconomic changes. Well, then T-Mobile is probably best positioned to actually capture a more meaningful share of that given where we're at, particularly as you have more consumers doing consideration of switching and they start asking around the way they do, and now you've come to the place where you have best network and still offer the best value.
All right. Well, that's all the time we have. Thank you all for joining us. There's light refreshments over there if you want something on the way out, and our team will be available to mingle for just a little bit. Thank you.
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T-Mobile US — Mobile US, Inc. - Analyst/Investor Day - T-Mobile US, Inc.
T-Mobile US — Mobile US, Inc. - Analyst/Investor Day - T-Mobile US, Inc.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Postpaid-Netto: 261.000 Postpaid-Konten netto in Q4 (starkes Kundenwachstum).
- ARPA: Postpaid-ARPA (Average Revenue Per Account) +2,7% YoY; organisch +3,6%.
- Service Revenue: +10% berichtet / +5% organisch YoY.
- Adj. EBITDA: +7% berichtet / +4% organisch YoY.
- Free Cash Flow: FCF-Konversion 22% in Q4, 25% für das Jahr (Branchenführend).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Widening Differentiation: Strategie „kein Trade‑off“ – Best Network, Best Value, Best Experience als Wachstumstreiber.
- Netz & KI: 5G‑SA‑Führung, AI-gestützte „customer‑driven coverage“; aktive Arbeit an AI RAN / 6G als langfristiger Hebel.
- Digitalisierung: T‑Life + Intent CX treiben Self‑Service und Effizienz (Management nennt ~3 Mrd. $ Einsparpotenzial bis Ende '27 Laufrate).
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- 2026 Service: ~77 Mrd. $ Service Revenue (+8% reported; ~6% organisch; inkl. ~3,6 Mrd. $ M&A).
- 2027 Service: 80,5–81,5 Mrd. $ (ca. +5% reported; inkl. ~4 Mrd. $ M&A).
- Kunden & ARPA: Ziel 2026: 900k–1 Mio. Postpaid‑Konten netto; Postpaid‑ARPA +2,5–3%.
- CapEx & FCF: CapEx ~10 Mrd. $ (2026), FCF 18–18,7 Mrd. $ (2026) → 19,5–20,5 Mrd. $ (2027).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Reporting‑Shift: Management erklärt Umstellung auf Accounts (Beziehungs‑Unit) statt rein Subscriber‑Metriken; soll Klarheit über Wertschöpfung schaffen.
- Broadband & Fiber: FWA‑Ziel 15 Mio. Kunden bis 2030; inkl. Fiber 18–19 Mio. Kunden; Homes‑pass‑Ziel (12–15 Mio.) über JVs, weitere Partnerschaften möglich.
- Upside & Risiken: Nachfrage nach T‑Ads, Finanzdienstleistungen und AI RAN als Upside; Device‑Subsidy‑Debatte (Weg von reinen Subventionen hin zu „win‑win“) als branchenspezifisches Risiko/Chance.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Starke Ausführung: höhere Guidance, robustes Kundenwachstum und Branchenführerschaft bei FCF. Kapitalallokation bleibt diszipliniert (Q1‑Buyback 5 Mrd. $; DT verkauft 2026 offenbar nicht). Wesentliche Upside‑Optionen: FWA/Fiber, T‑Ads, Financial Services, AI RAN — aber viele davon sind konservativ in der Guidance nicht vollständig enthalten.
T-Mobile US — UBS Global Media and Communications Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
I'll get started. Again, I'm John Hodulik, telecom and media analyst here at UBS. And I'm very pleased to announce our next speaker is Srini Gopalan, the CEO of T-Mobile. Srini, thanks for being here.
Thanks for having me, John.
So as we always do -- well, first of all, we've got 35 minutes for presentation or Q&A, and I have the iPad here. So if anybody in the crowd has any questions, please log them in and I'll filter them into the conversation. Srini, we always start by giving a little bit of an outlook for 2026. You've been in the seat a relatively short amount of time, but we'd love to get your impressive about the company and what your priorities are as we look out into the new year. .
Thank you, John. Let me start by first drawing everyone's attention to the safe harbor statement. I think that just disappeared a minute ago. But having cleared that bed out. Look, I'm hugely excited to be here. I've been associated to this company now for almost a decade, been on the Board and now part of management and then took over as CEO. I've got to say this -- when you look at the history of everything we've built as the Un-carrier, and to be sitting here today and to be able to say, I'm convinced that the best lies ahead, is a testament to what the team's built and is a testament to the strategic position we've put ourselves in.
When I look at -- I mean, the baseline for everything we talk about was the strategic plan and the financial plan. that we laid out as part of our Capital Markets Day from '23 to '27. And that was not just a set of numbers, it was a set of capabilities that we wanted to build, which we thought was fundamental to changing, again, the way this industry works. And I'm pleased to say we're well on track to not just meet those but exceed some of our goals from that. And from my '26 priorities, there are kind of probably 3 big capabilities that I'm spending my time focused on.
The first is, and you won't be surprised to hear this, our network, right? And that has 2 pieces to it. One, not just maintaining but extending our network lead. We are today America's best network. We brought 5G to the U.S. We're very, very focused on extending that lead now with all of the developments that are happening, but also into 6G, right? And I know we'll talk a little bit more in detail on what 6G and AI-RAN is, but there's a piece of kind of just, we won't stop, we'll continue extending our network lead.
And the second part on network, and this is as important as the reality of the network we built, is making sure that we close the perception gap. We are America's best network. Not everyone sees it as that, right? There's at least 70 million Verizon and AT&T customers who chose Verizon and AT&T because they thought they have the best network. That was true way back in the 4G era. That's changed now. And these customers are paying a premium because they thought they were at the best network. That's no longer true. Huge opportunity there.
Lots of underrepresented segments, whether that's enterprise, whether that's government, whether that's just simply network seekers who have historically not considered T-Mobile, but as we talked in our earnings call, our perception amongst -- our network perception amongst network seekers is now at an all-time high and that's driving some real momentum into the business and our latest move, Easy to Switch or 15 Minutes to Better is part of kind of taking away that inertia amongst network seekers and bringing them to us.
The second big piece, so that's network, both perception and reality. The second big piece I'm focused on is our AI and digital transformation. Again, you've seen some of those -- I mean, this industry in many ways, operates like it's in 2002, right? For most things, whether you're an existing customer or a new customer, you've got to go into a store, you've got to call someone. We fundamentally believe that has to change.
And we are changing that over 90 million downloads of the T Life app, 70% of our upgrades are now done through digital channels. AI is a space we're hugely excited in, more from the perspective of how can we make the experience even better you saw our launch of 15 Minutes to Better, which really uses some of the best tech to start smashing one of the biggest pain points customers have, which is the process of switching.
I'm sure a few of you have been through the process of kind of trying to drag your 17 and 20 year old into a store to try and switch network providers, spending most of Saturday there. That's what we want to change. We want to put an end to that. And on the digital transformation, huge distance covered on our base, and now we're going after prospects and new customers.
And the third big leg of what we're doing is broadband growth. We're now the fast, have been for the last 15 quarters, the fastest-growing broadband service, a combination of FWA, where we've doubled in the last 2 years, and our fiber gives us -- I mean we like broadband because what you've got is an industry T-Mobile loves to attack, where you've got incumbents sitting on poor products with an inflated back book price, it's what the Un-carrier is all about.
So those are really my say, 3 big priorities, network, both reality and perception, digital transformation enabled by AI and driving our broadband business. I mean you put that all together, it's really about taking the Un-carrier to the next level. In this morning, in fact -- and we're beginning to align the organization around that. We've made good progress. This morning, in fact, we had an 8-K where both John Freier and Mike Katz have moved into broader roles, which are aligned to this strategy. They've had some kind of tweaks on their titles. But importantly, it's about aligning the organization behind the strategy.
Got it. Makes sense. All right. That was a great overview. Maybe we'll eventually get to a lot of those topics. Maybe let's start with the sub growth, you sort of increased expectations for sub growth through '25, you've actually done better than -- certainly than we expected to date. What drove that initial outlook? And what's the sustained performance that you've seen thus far?
Sure. So there's 2 pieces to think about sub growth, right? I'll come to the piece on how we think about guidance, how we think about our philosophy to approach that. But first, and this is kind of the 50,000-foot view that I think is really important, which is there's a flow of demand towards us, especially from new customers but also existing customers upgrading. And there's a real driver to that flow, which is our differentiation.
Historically, we were best value, right? Now -- and best service. Now we're best value. We've maintained that as well as best network and the best digital experience. You put that all together and it's the one place customers don't have to make a trade-off. Now there's a rule in telco, and I've worked across the world in telco, right? There's this golden rule that I can get only 1 of the 3.
If I get the best network, I must be paying a premium. If I'm a if I'm getting value, I must be getting a bad network, right? And we're all about smashing through that contradiction. There is 1 place where you can actually get all 3. And because of that position, we're seeing kind of gravity flow towards us, we're seeing huge demand. We're seeing that in terms of our NPS. We're seeing that in terms of perception and purchase intent. That's, if you'll have it, the Uber phenomenon that's happening, which is why we're outgrowing the industry. Now the specifics of '25, the way we think of every year is we tend to think of what will drive switching in the year.
So we tend to look at -- like in '25, for example, they were more 36-month plans that were coming to an end, right? And that's some of what led us to have a higher expectation, right? We tend to look at what are CLVs. So really, is there enough demand? And is the demand robust economically, right? Is there enough demand gets driven by how many switching events there are and how robust is that economically, gets driven by looking at what our CLVs are and what we expect them to be, right?
So in '25, our guide came from a view of, there is going to be these jump balls, were greater jump balls because of the first piece I talked about our competitive position, and we saw very robust CLVs. So we guided and we actually went out and over achieved that. You should expect us to look at the world similarly in '26. What are the jump-ball events? What are CLVs? We tend to guide not based on how many postpaid nets are there in the industry that's kind of, for us, a really hard number to get our head around because what one person calls a postpaid net another person doesn't.
We tend not to look at this from the perspective of what did we do last year versus what should we do this year. We tend to look at it quite purely from how many jump-ball events, how strong are CLVs, therefore, where should we position ourselves so that we grow in a responsible manner, and we grow in a manner where we titrate industry economics, along with our growth.
Got it. I don't want to jump the gun here, but as you look out to '26, how are the jump balls, how do you have them shaping up? I agree with you, the way we look at the industry. You had a big cohort coming off these 36-month payment plans last year. how is the cohort in '26 look versus '25? And also, how have you seen sort of CLVs sort of evolve through the year.
So CLVs and '25 are looking really strong, right? We'll talk more about this at guidance because I don't want to kind of start steering guidance on '26.
Okay. That's right. So I get that [indiscernible].
No, I get that John. No. But look, we'll talk about this more a '26 guidance. What you should expect from us is a responsible guidance. That's based on our view of jump balls and our view of CLVs rather than something that's somehow weighted to an industry net number or our net number from last year.
Got it. I think one of the main concerns among wireless investors is the competitive environment, right? You have a new leadership at Verizon that seems to be more focused on subscriber and, I would say, branded market share gains. What do you think the ramifications are for wireless and for T-Mobile as we look out to '26?
Look, I think on the whole, we are used to a competitive industry. And we've seen -- whatever we've seen on Black Friday as well, is kind of pretty consistent with historic levels of competition. This has been a competitive industry. The shape of competition changes from sometimes being focused on rate plans to sometimes being focused on devices. That's why we tend to look at CLVs and how robust they are.
To your specific question on Verizon. Look, we -- I mean, our strategy has been different from theirs. When you look -- I don't think Verizon has a network share problem, right? If you look at their network share as a whole, it's pretty robust right?
Including the wholesale you're saying.
Exactly. So when you look at network share, which is what Verizon is at the heart of it, right? Our bias has been always to focus on branded nets. And so the way we think of it is that feels more like a brand problem or a brand distribution problem and shares between brands rather than a Verizon network problem. But frankly, you're probably better off dealing with that question with them. What we're very, very focused on is growing responsibly, growing with innovation, which is why things like 15 Minutes to Better were a big part of it. We want to grow because consumers see the value of having no trade-offs and consumers see the value of a simple 5 click process instead of having to wait 4 hours. That's what should drive our growth because when we drive our growth like that, CLVs are robust as well.
Got it. Yes. And we'll come back to the digitalization in the 15 Minutes to Better. You said Black Friday was pretty much in line with what you've seen in the past. I mean, can you just talk a little bit or put some more color around that. What you saw from competitors, what T-Mobile had in the market and how that positions you for the holiday selling season.
Yes. Look, we upped our guide on postpaid nets to $3.3 million. We're having a great quarter. We we're confident of hitting our guide. Black Friday, like all events in this industry, when promotions pulse in and out is obviously something we monitor closely. I think where we are is the level of competitive intensity, which has been pretty consistent with where this industry has been in the past. We're feeling good about CLVs and the way we guided.
I think most importantly, it's really easy, John, to get lost in this promotion versus that promotion. A couple of things that are worth keeping in mind. When you look at Black Friday headlines, for example, and I can tell you why -- how it works for us as the switching leader, we tend to get full account switching, which means it's not just the headline offer, it's the entire account that comes over.
And a reasonable proportion of that account will not take the headline offer because you're getting an entire family in. So when we look at CLVs, we look at the CLV of the account, right? Also, the broader picture is while we can get kind of distracted by specific promotions, there is a direction of flow, which gets driven by the differentiation of having best network, best experience and best value.
Got it. Makes sense. Maybe a couple of sort of more micro questions. If you look back to the third quarter, churn only grew by 3 basis points and upgrades were effectively flat for T-Mobile. And those are very different trends than what we're seeing from your competitors. So how are you achieving this? And sort of how is T-Mobile positioned, I guess, across these metrics as we look out to next year?
So let's take churn, right? Again, it's useful to see these things in a multiyear arc, right? What you've seen over the last 5 years is a big improvement in our churn. Now that's kind of entirely rational when you put that together with what's happened on our network experience. We've maintained our value position while the network offering has improved substantially, right? Now we also don't have the lumpiness of 36-month contracts. So we didn't have the suppression and then the release from the suppression.
So what you've seen is a secular -- when you look at it over a period of time, when you've seen is a secular reduction in churn, driven by the quality of the offering. And on the upgrade side, upgrades are more complex to predict because they're a function of what is the inflow of plans, what kind of subsidies do they have linked to them, what kind of periods do they have? It gets linked to devices and things like that. I think our secular upgrade trend though has been driven by something else, which is as the network has moved to become the best network in America, fewer and fewer of our customers have felt the need to upgrade device to experience the best network, right?
Because the network -- I mean, even when you take the latest devices, right, our network clearly outperforms our competitors. We're 40% faster speeds than one and 90% faster speeds than the other, right? What you're seeing, therefore, is the stickiness to network quality independent of device, which is one of the factors that leads structure -- that leads to structurally lower upgrade rates for us.
Got it. One of the hallmarks that we've seen for T-Mobile over the last several years is just faster service revenue growth than your competitors, but a pretty good gap. Can you unpack some of the drivers of that faster service revenue growth and the sustainability of that premium that you get versus the industry?
Yes, absolutely. I mean if you just look at last quarter, we talked about 12% postpaid growth right, with 6% growth in EBITDA. You look at our multiyear guide, it's kind of a 5% growth in service revenue, 7% growth in EBITDA and probably most impressively, a continued 26% free cash flow generation, right, which is industry leading, which ultimately, given all the accounting shenanigans and every other metric, the true show me the money metric for me is cash. Now all of that is sustained on the one hand with volume, which we've talked a lot about. And the second is our value growth. And if you look at our value side, we again changed our guide this year to 2% ARPU and 4% ARPA growth excluding M&A on the ARPA side because you'll have some dilution there.
Now all of that growth in value per customer or more importantly, value per account, there's kind of 3 drivers to it. The first is on our inflow or the new customers we take in. The fact that we're able to do more for more, which is sell people up the ladder with things like streaming benefits, with things like T-Satellite with everything else we're adding to it. On the back of the fact that our existing customer base is or what you'd call the back book, has historically stood for value.
It means you get a lot of accretion just by people coming in, right? Even when we talk about things like a 2% ARPU growth, if you look at our pure consumer business, it's higher than that because we're also growing in business, which tends to be ARPU-dilutive. So piece 1 of, outside of volume, piece 1 of our formula tends to be more for more, sell up the rate plan ladder at the front end or for new customers.
Piece 2 of it is then more for more on our base especially with things like FWA, which is adding ARPA and creating growth there. And there's a third piece, which is the smallest of the 3, but something that we're acutely conscious of from time to time, which is looking at our legacy rate plans and doing rate plan optimization on those, right? So when people talk to me about pricing power in this industry, I see us having substantial pricing power because you look at 4% ARPA growth, right? That to me is the harder pricing power. And pricing power isn't simply the ability to kind of do the old cable style rack-up pricing, right? It's also what you do in terms of value delivery and more for more, that creates value growth.
So given that, I guess, the cable style as you referred to it, which I'll be using in the future. Price increases are such a small percentage of the ARPU benefit you've seen or the ARPU trends you're seeing, it sort of suggests to me that those ARPU trends are more sustainable than people might think.
Absolutely. I mean this is -- I mean, what we're here to do is create sustainable pricing power in this industry, right? And of course, there will always be a mix. We can debate how small, how large, that will vary depending on what happens with legacy plans. But the heart of pricing power for me is a combination of all 3, right? It's a combination of being able to upsell at the front end, it's a combination of them being able to attach more products to existing customers. And then when you have a rate plan optimization that you need to do bringing that in. But that gives us substantial pricing power, certainly for us as a business. And to your point, sustainable pricing power.
Right. Another sort of hallmark of the third quarter was despite the strong revenue growth in the subscribers, you had some pressure on margins due to some new spending. Can you just talk about that -- those new spending initiatives? And are they expected to continue into '26?
I debate the pressure on margins. In a quarter where we delivered a 6% EBITDA growth it's ironical to talk about pressure on margins. But the -- look, there's -- the investment is undebatable right? We invested in 3 or 4 big places. One is the digital transformation that we just talked about, the digital and the AI transformation. Now let's look at -- let's spend a few minutes on that, right? Because we're investing in the way we've always thought about it is the digital and AI transformation is here for us to dramatically change the experience because we've not gone at this from the perspective of how do we shave off 5% of cost. We've gone at it from how do we dramatically change the experience with the belief that if we dramatically change the experience or when we change the experience, what will fall out is much happier customers and way lower costs, which meant we had to first invest in the capabilities.
So which was a big investment in our digital and AI capabilities, including our deep partnership with Open AI. The second thing you've got to do is then customer adoption, which is -- this isn't kind of here's my app, go try it tomorrow. The first thing we did with upgrades was say, when you walk into a store, right? And now this happens in every T-Mobile store. When you walk into a store, the first thing that will happen is you download the app. And we show you how to do the upgrade, a bit like airlines, right? And now 70% of our upgrades are digital. That's a huge movement. We're going after exactly the same thing with new customers. We're now with Easy Switch, our all new customers can become new customers -- can become customers of T-Mobile by downloading the T Life app.
I mean I often say this T Life, with time, becomes our only IT system. It's the universal interface by which you interact with T-Mobile. Now all of that investment has also meant kind of running things in parallel, because it's not like we dramatically reduced stores purely because we've got the app. The first thing that the stores do is work with customers to drive that adoption. With time will we see fewer stores? Yes, right?
But we're going through that. We've gone through, especially in Q3 and as we go through Q4, that period of investment on the digital side. When we talk about network, again, very similar thing. We've rolled out thousands of new sites. The revenue stream from those sites will follow, right? And that's what you're seeing in some of this investment. I'm looking forward. I'm quite excited to share our '26 and '27 guidance because as I said at our earnings call, we will increase our guidance to reflect both the M&A, but also the underlying strength that we're seeing in the business. And that will also reflect and we'll spend some time talking about the dividend from the investments in digitization and AI.
That's great. So in terms of the spending, the spending is on the systems and just promoting the app, getting people to understand the power and then to get -- to create that usage and...
And also in the deal running okay? Because it's not like -- and when you talk about Q3, there was also outsized customer growth.
Right.
But to your -- but in terms of the investments, it's in customers who will pay off next year with strong CLVs. It's in digital and AI, which is both kind of the systems itself, but also the parallel running because you're driving adoption. And then it's a network where you are building thousands of new sites.
So if we're looking at it over the next 2 years, you said the '26, '27 guidance, we'll get to the point where not only do we see that some of the spending come down, but we'll also start to see the payoff of these digitalization.
We will see the payoff of the digitization. Absolutely.
Got it. Great. Maybe let's turn to broadband and first, starting with fixed wireless. Very strong, very surprisingly strong third quarter numbers in terms of fixed wireless. What drove the acceleration and sort of -- and I know you have a 12 million guide out there, but talk about sort of how much runway you have maybe heading into that and maybe beyond the 12 million guide?
I put that into 2, right? I mean, like with a lot of this stuff, I think it's it's simpler than kind of lots of tactics. It's just an awesome product, right? That's the heart of what's driven the outsized growth. Now you look at you look at this product, right, we've doubled the number of customers in the last 2 years. Each customer uses 30% more, and yet our speeds are close to 50% higher, right? So you've seen now a product which is scaled to 8 million customers, and it's still getting better. It's an incredibly easy product to use. All you need to do is plug it into a wall, right? You don't need drilling. You don't need the complex fixed line process. It's just an addictive easy product to use.
And the quality of performance has been outstanding. So it doesn't surprise me that we've seen those outsized results. We've got a 12 million guide out there, and you know this team. we're working every day to see what we can do, right, to make that even better, right? Do we have any news? No, not right now. But the way -- but what makes us really positive about this product and the amount of capacity that this product has, is the evolution of mobile technology, right? What we're seeing is better routers, which is great. We're also seeing the innovations happening even in 5G, which is things like L4S, which allows us to optimize and shape our traffic much better.
We're excited about where 6G could go in terms of further capacity. We haven't yet built in any impact from additional spectrum that will come in, right? Now all of this, remember, is in the fallow capacity model, right? We're also seeing great uptick -- uptake of this stuff in B2B, which is really good because it's off-peak usage. So we're seeing multiple growth vectors and really strong momentum as we move from the 8 million towards the 12 million.
Great. You mentioned 6G, and I want to sort of move from fixed wireless. But T-Mobile is featured prominently in the NVIDIA, Nokia announcement not too long ago about AI-RAN. Can you talk about the benefits to incorporating AI into your network in the RAN. What does it do for the fixed wireless business? And what could it do for the overall American? And maybe the timing of when we should see that.
Let me start with the timing, right? Look, some of these developments will take time. Some will come in quicker, but there's one thing that's really clear in my mind. We led this industry through 5G, and we will lead through 6G, right? We will drive the ecosystem, and we will be the 6G leaders. On the specifics of 6G or AI-RAN and you can use those interchangeably. 3 big elements that are exciting. First is what Jensen at NVIDIA often calls the physical AI, right?
And what is physical AI, right? Now I think there's a piece of moving away from Chat GPT as the fundamental form of AI to actually automation and robotics. Now to make that happen, you need low latency connection between the robot or the device and the network. Only 6G can give you that. You also then need a network that's not just capable of processing bits and bytes. But that's also capable of processing tokens, which is Edge AI, right? Now this has been talked about for a while, but with 6G, it becomes real. That opens up some fascinating new revenue opportunities.
So to have robots actually functioning, to have factories automated or what Jensen at NVIDIA calls physical AI, and I love that phrase. You need a network that can deliver that can deliver physical AI. A network that's low latency enough and a network that can process not just bits and bytes but also tokens. So that's 1 big exciting opportunity. I think the second big thing is what it does for our network because you'll have more bits per hertz, you will have more efficiency through the standards, you will also just have greater optimization protocols. So today, most apps are quite hungry, right? So we land up not optimizing how much bandwidth we give.
With 6G and AI, and this is where AI helps optimize our own loads, you will see a lot more being squeezed out of the network. And that helps massively with things like fallow capacity models. And the third probably as big piece is going to be cybersecurity, right? And what we can do from a cybersecurity perspective, including things like 6G will have ISAC, which is the -- which effectively is the equivalent of a radar in the network. And the applications from a cybersecurity perspective, especially being quantum safe are huge.
So put all of that together, and that will come in through different points. So some of the efficiency improvements we're already beginning to see as part of 5G advanced. Some of the physical AI stuff, some of the other stuff, will flow through. And it's really important that we work with NVIDIA with NOKIA here to build a U.S. ecosystem and with them a Western world ecosystem that really drives 6G forward.
Got it. Just for -- I mean when you talk about improvement in spectral efficiency from 6G/AI-RAN, can you sort of size that as sort of 2x to 3x what you're seeing? Or are we talking dramatic change in the sort of...
It's early days. It's early days. So it's difficult to size right now. I'd just say it's substantial.
Got it. okay. All right. Maybe moving on to fiber. Srini, you have a lot of experience in fiber with your experience in Europe. What are the main learnings from your fiber experience in Europe that can be applied to the U.S.?
So I've rolled out fiber, and I think 12 countries now. But the the big -- the 2 big learnings from Europe are one, customers will make different trade-offs on the speed, value metrics. So it isn't fiber takes at all, right? You will have -- and that's why we're really bullish about FWA. It never lands up being one technology takes it all because customers will not everyone wants a 2 gigabit connection with kind of -- and paying whatever price they pay for it.
You will find people positioning themselves at different points, and we feel really good about FWA and kind of the progress FWA is making, especially when you compare it with the progress DOCSIS is making. The second thing that I think you learn in multiple countries is the strategy of an incumbent and the strategy of a challenger are very, very different. If you are the incumbent because what you're trying to do is protect a declining cash pile from copper than kind of land grab and homes passed becomes a key metric. Because what you're trying to do is protect the legacy declining business, especially in B2B.
If you are the challenger, which is what we are, then your focus is building scale on paying customers. It's homes connected. It's penetration that lands up being the big deal. And it's the economic return you make on the investment, that's the big deal. If you're an incumbent, you want to make sure you protect the decline in your existing business if you are a challenger, you want to make good ROE on it. That's why we're focused and obsessed by what penetration we drive, what kind of economic return we drive in our JVs.
Right. So you have targets out there for 12 million to 15 million homes passed by 2030. Is there -- can you give us a sense of sort of where you are now, how that builds over time? And what kind of penetration rates you expect to see as the strategy matures?
So our penetration rates that we're assuming for our -- for the returns we've talked about are very consistent with industry standards. We're seeing a lot of benefit from the T-Mobile brand, from the T-Mobile distribution...
You have the highest NPS. There is.
Exactly.
You would imagine great distribution [indiscernible].
And so we're feeling really good as we build towards that. I mean if your underlying question there, John, is about scale. I think this is a misunderstood thing, right? Because when we think about scale, we think about broadband customer scale rather than fiber homes passed scale. I'm not sure why fiber homes passed scale is relevant, right? Fiber ultimately is the local scale business and fiber homes passed on a local level matters because of things like permitting. But when you're looking at national scale.
What matters is broadband scale because you want to be able to market to a large number of customers and that we have with FWA plus fiber, so it's our, if you give us to convert our FWA and fiber into homes passed equivalents, we -- our plan is already like 45 million homes passed, right? Because that's the scale that matters. The scale that matters is ultimately how many customers you have right, which with FWA, plus our fiber rollout, we will be scale at.
Right. Got it. What are the prospects of doing more fiber-to-the-home JVs? And could you just talk about the the sort of economics you're seeing both in terms of those JVs and just in the broadband, the fiber business in general?
So we -- everything we've seen so far from the JVs are really strong and positive. We will do JVs when we get them at the right economic terms. So we're always open to that conversation. But like I said, we don't feel the need to rush into a game of more and more fiber homes passed purely because it leads to some mythical thing called convergence on the back of that, right? What we're focused on is driving scale with FWA and driving scale with our JVs, especially from a homes connected and paying customers' perspective.
Got it. Those comments sort of lead to the question we've been getting a lot. A lot of change happening in the broadband world. We're also seeing a sort of increase in sort of overall deal activity. What's your view and T-Mobile's view on cable? Obviously, the valuations have never been cheaper, their fundamentals are obviously under some pressure. Are cable assets attractive to T-Mobile as a way to sort of -- I mean, I think you might have already answered it, but gained scale and sort of drive a converged product.
No.
Okay. Okay. That was very clear.
Maybe -- we have a little bit of time. Maybe give us an update on the U.S. Cellular acquisition. How is the integration going? And anything you can talk about sort of synergy realization?
Look, U.S. Cellular is going great. We updated our synergy number from $1 billion in 3 to 4 years to $1.2 billion in 2 years. It's a huge contribution to our SMRA strategy. It brings us 47 megahertz, right, for 37 million POP, which is just great in terms of what it does to our network. The integration is well on track. We've got a playbook, the Sprint playbook. And that's really what we're using here. So we're feeling really good about it.
Great. All right. And just quickly to wrap up. You've been spending about $10 billion in annual CapEx. Is that a sustainable level? And how should we think of free cash flow over the next several years given all the inputs on the broadband side and the momentum you're seeing in subscriber growth and just the outlook in terms of the growth of the metric?
Yes. So first on CapEx, we moved $9.5 billion to $10 billion this year to account for U.S. Cellular. I think we've suggested already that '26 will be $10 billion again. But you should see those as onetime and don't drag right on your spreadsheet to make it $10 billion. Our long-term guide continues to be $9 billion to $10 billion, right, with going up because of the U.S. Cellular this year and next year. In terms of the overall business, I'll just answer the cash flow and then kind of try and wrap up the whole thing.
Look, from a cash flow perspective, we have the unique position of generating industry-leading free cash flow conversion. And all the investments that we're making today only further underscore that point, right, and further build on this ability to maintain that industry-leading free cash flow generation. That's a huge metric. It's one we're laser focused on. If I was to kind of put all of it together, look, I feel it's a complete privilege and honor to be able to lead this business at this point in time where we've had 13 years of continuous success as the Un-carrier and I'm able to sit here and say the best is yet to come.
And that conviction of the best is yet to come for me gets driven by the incredible team that we have, the bench strength that we have, our proven ability to execute and our willingness to transform ourselves as you're seeing with the network as you're seeing with digital and AI at the point where, in many ways we're at, are more successful. That hunger that desire to continuously transform ourselves and reach for the next thing and reach for the next source of growth, this whole attitude of "we won't stop" is what makes us special.
Great. It's a great way to leave it. Srini thanks for being here.
Thank you.
Thank you.
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T-Mobile US — UBS Global Media and Communications Conference 2025
T-Mobile US — UBS Global Media and Communications Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: CEO Srini Gopalan stellt drei Prioritäten für 2026 heraus: Netzausbau und Schließung der Wahrnehmungslücke, digitale Transformation mit KI sowie beschleunigtes Breitbandwachstum (FWA + Fiber). Ziel: nachhaltiges Kunden- und Umsatzwachstum bei starker Cash-Generierung.
- Position: T‑Mobile positioniert sich als „Un‑carrier“ mit Fokus auf beste Netzqualität plus bestes Preis-/Leistungsverhältnis, um Marktanteile von Verizon/AT&T zu gewinnen.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Netz: Priorität auf Ausbau der 5G‑Führung und Vorbereitung auf 6G/AI‑RAN; gleichzeitiges Closing der Wahrnehmungslücke via „Easy to Switch/15 Minutes to Better“.
- Digital & AI: T Life-App >90 Mio. Downloads, 70% der Upgrades digital; enge Partnerschaft mit OpenAI, Ziel: Nutzererlebnis vereinfachen und CLV (Customer Lifetime Value) erhöhen.
- Breitband & M&A: FWA-Wachstum stark (Verdopplung in 2 Jahren), 12 Mio. Kundenziel (Guide), U.S. Cellular-Integration liefert $1,2 Mrd. Synergien in 2 Jahren.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Synergien: U.S. Cellular-Synergien wurden auf $1,2 Mrd. (statt $1,0 Mrd.) und schnelleres Realisierungsfenster (2 vs. 3–4 Jahre) aktualisiert.
- CapEx & Guidance: 2026er CapEx ~$10 Mrd.; langfristig weiter $9–10 Mrd. Management kündigt an, die Guidance zu erhöhen, um M&A‑Effekte und operative Stärke zu reflektieren.
- Organisation: 8‑K meldet Rollenverschiebungen (John Freier, Mike Katz) zur besseren Ausrichtung auf die Strategie.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Subscribers: Nachfrage nach Details zu „Jump‑balls“ und CLV; Management betont verantwortliche, CLV‑getriebene Guidance, vermeidet konkrete 2026‑Zahlen vor formaler Guidance.
- Wettbewerb: Fragen zu Verizon‑Einsatz; Management sieht aktuelles Wettbewerbsniveau als historisch normal, setzt auf Marken‑/Wahrnehmungsgewinn statt reinen Netzstreit.
- Investitionen vs. Margen: Analysten hinterfragten temporäre Margendrucke durch Digital‑/AI‑Investitionen; Management erwartet Payoff (niedrigere Kosten, höhere CLV), wollte aber Timing nicht übermäßig detaillieren.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Klare, operativ fokussierte Agenda: Netzführerschaft, digitale Kundenreise und Breitband‑Skalierung. Kurzfristige Investitionen belasten Margen, langfristig sollte Wachstum, ARPA/CLV und starker Free Cash Flow die Rendite für Aktionäre stützen; entscheidend bleiben Execution, Wahrnehmungsgewinn und die kommende formale Guidance.
T-Mobile US — Wells Fargo's 9th Annual TMT Summit
1. Question Answer
All right. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us at the Wells Fargo TMT Summit. Really pleased this afternoon to be closing out the day with Jon Freier, the President of the Consumer Group at T-Mobile. Thanks for joining us.
Yes. Thank you, Eric. Appreciate it.
And I know you have a brief safe harbor. I want to get that out of the way.
I do. If we can move to the safe harbor slide here, which is basically, please look at all of this information. And if you have any other questions, please go to our website at investorrelations.t-mobile.com.
Great. So maybe we'll start out high level with the recent CEO transition. The recent change in CEO to Srini Gopalan you've obviously had some very strong charismatic leaders in the past at T-Mobile. So how should we think about the path forward for the Un-carrier under Srini? How that might differ from some of the previous CEOs that we've seen in the public market?
Well, if I can just say, I think Srini is very charismatic as well. So if I could just say that upfront. Yes, this is something that we've been excited about with Srini being appointed as CEO. We've been working with Srini for a very long time, really kind of the last 10 years where he's had a position as a TMUS board member for the majority of the last 10 years and has been with us and working with us kind of every step of the way relative to our strategy. And he's pretty clear eyed about the priorities that he has for the company.
And I would just say, really, when you look at the 3 priorities he has: one is, how do we extend our network leadership position, attract more network seekers and close this perception gap between reality and what prospects think of our network, number one. Number two is how do we drive the customer experience and elevate that through digitalization. And then number three, how do we make broadband incredibly successful. And those are the 3 priorities that he laid out during our Q3 earnings call at the end of October.
And for us, we're very clear eyed about those priorities. We want to continue to drive growth in a very profitable, durable, accretive way. And that's something that we've been known for as driving lots of outsized growth over the last 13 years of the Un-carrier, but also drive an outsized financial performance along the way.
And he's very clear out about that, and it's something that we've been excited about. And it's not one of these moments where you have a crisis. He's stepping in, in a moment of incredible success. And I love the way that Mike Sievert kind of characterize this, when you have incredible success, the future has never been brighter and the right leader is here ready to go, that's the moment when you make these transitions. And he's done incredible the last few weeks as he stepped into the role, but that shouldn't surprise anybody because we've been working with him for the last decade or so.
Yes. Fair enough. Fair enough. Given that we're kind of in the heart of Q4, we're nearing a very promotional time period. We've got Black Friday coming up. We've got holiday promotions. There have been new phone launches in the market a couple of months ago, and you've had some recent offers in the market like 4 for $100 with no trade-in requirements. Maybe you could just kind of characterize how this Q4 is stacking up from a promotional standpoint, from an activity standpoint versus previous fourth quarters, realizing that, of course, there's still a lot of activity to come in the last 1.5 months of the year?
Yes. This is my 32nd Q4 in this business, if you can believe that. I know that's what you're thinking that there's no way this guy can be that old. But true, it is by 32nd quarter in this business. And it's always kind of a competitive time, as you would expect during the holiday time period, a lot of headline offers that are out there much like our offer of -- in terms of a headline offer for 4 for $100. And this is an offer that we've had that we pulled in and out of the market really for the last 10 years or so. There's just always a lot of noise.
For us, what we try to do is we try to have these big headline offers, generate interest, generate traffic and then really showcase to customers everything that we have to offer. And when you think about 4 for $100 when we had these promotions in the market in the past, they've always represented kind of a low single digit of gross account additions in terms of the mix of that offer. And the overwhelming majority of the customers that are coming into the franchise are selecting premium plans.
And so when I look at the overall competitiveness, it's nothing that I'm concerned about. It's vibrant. The competitive environment is always vibrant in this space. But there's nothing that I'm concerned about in terms of what I'm seeing today. And nothing that I would be concerned about in terms of what I'm seeing in the future for the balance of the quarter.
Our momentum is continuing into this business. We had -- we revised our postpaid phone net guide to 3.3 million for the year. You can do the math between where we are, the guide, that kind of implies what you should expect in Q4. And we're feeling really good about that momentum, the overall switching dynamic that's happening in the marketplace and our ability to compete very effectively. And like I said just a few moments ago, thoughtfully, profitably and doing so that's rewarding customers for the value proposition that we offer.
And obviously, there's been a lot of news and chatter in the hallways around the CEO change at one of your large competitors recently. And they've expressed the desire to at least improve their customer growth through some retention efforts to try to keep more of their customers that have churned off. So early days I realize with the CEO change there, but any changes in behavior, marketing, retention offers that you've seen or expect when competing against them?
Yes. Like you said, they've gone through some changes over there. And so far, I haven't seen anything that is manifesting itself in the marketplace. And I know they've had their public commentary, and I'm not here to do their Investor Relations for them, nor do I want to run their company.
And so -- but I'd tell you that if you just kind of step back for a second and just look at kind of net adds on a per network basis versus a per brand basis. If you look at it on a per-brand basis, sure, lots of challenges for the Verizon brand. But if you look at it on a per network basis between the AT&T network, the T-Mobile network and the Verizon network, actually, that's quite healthy for them.
The big challenge and the big opportunity that I think they have is how to get their mix right between the net adds that are hitting their network. Should they have much more of a retail relationship with customers versus a wholesale relationship with customers, that's for them to decide. But if it were me, just kind of looking at it between the net add composition again on a per network basis, it seems like they have some clear opportunities to rightsize what they're seeing coming through the Verizon brand in that space.
Okay. Fair enough. Fair enough. I guess we'll all be waiting to see how that happen in February. So as we think about upgrade rates this year, they've picked up quite a bit. We've seen industry churn pick up a lot of customers that came out of 2- or 3-year device payment plans. So maybe you could talk about from T-Mobile's perspective, do you prefer this kind of higher switching environment, more jump balls to go prosecute against? Or do you prefer an environment in which switching activity is a little lower like we've had in the past few years. What do you think is kind of the best environment for T-Mobile to win share in? Or are both environments in which you can do really well?
Yes. What you're seeing is you are seeing more switching and more upgrade activity that's happening in the marketplace. And I think that's not a new dynamic but more of a normalization of where it was. Remember, there was -- 2 of our competitors had introduced financing constructs over 36 months. And that probably artificially suppressed some of the upgrade activity, some of the switching activity in the marketplace. And what you're seeing is more of a return to a normalization in terms of upgrades, in terms of switching, et cetera. So I think that's a very healthy dynamic.
We've demonstrated that we can play in either environment, that we can play in a lower switching, lower upgrade environment. We can play in that environment and have done that quite successfully or we can play in an environment where there's elevated switching. For me, personally, the more jump balls that we have and the more switching and activity in the marketplace, that's great. I mean we're a share taker in this overall space and when you have more opportunity to take share, that's what we want to be able to do.
Our upgrade rate, as you've seen, has changed a little bit, but our overall postpaid phone churn is now the lowest in the industry. In Q3, we reported the lowest postpaid phone churn in the industry. So how everything is working out relative to switching, upgrades, that whole dynamic. It's really boding well for our ability to continue to resonate in the marketplace and to deliver great results for our shareholders.
And this question, you've probably gotten in many different forms over the last couple of years, but it's really around kind of fiber and mobile convergence, which has obviously been talked about quite a lot at your 2 competitors. And with the construct that a bundled fiber and mobile solution will help lower churn, it will help extend customer lifetime value. Of course, it also comes at the expense of an upfront cost benefit that the customer gets.
But it doesn't appear that you really have the aspiration to be more meaningful fiber provider above and beyond the 12 million to 15 million homes that you laid out. So I know today, you claim you really don't see it as a competitive disadvantage. I think people are trying to project into the future 5 years when another 40 million or 50 million homes of fiber get built. Does it ever become one? What's your best view today? And how do you prepare for the possibility that it could create lower switching in some markets where you compete against fiber?
Yes. We just love where we are in the space. First of all, let me kind of back up for a second and just talk about our broadband position. We're now the fifth largest Internet service provider in the country. We have nearly 9 million overall broadband customers in the market. And when you look at where we are on fixed wireless, and we've said, hey, we'll be at 12 million by the end of 2028. That's our number. We haven't deviated from that since our Capital Markets Day in 2024.
And when you think about that 12 million in the context of households passed at like basically a 40% penetration, kind of like 30 million households, if you think about that as the households passed. Then in addition to what you just said, between the Lumos and the Metronet transactions, ultimately having 12 million to 15 million households passed. We're kind of in this 40 million to 45 million household pass zone in terms of the equivalent. We love that place. It's in a good place. We're not thinking about broadband from a position of defense. We really like our position here. We don't see anything that we need to be doing to [bat at that] back so-called convergence, nothing that we need to do around that.
We see an opportunity to make money. Obviously, our 5G broadband product is off of a fallow capacity model. We've been very consistent in terms of how that works. And we see an opportunity to monetize that fallow capacity in the network.
And then fiber, we see an opportunity to make money and to go build kind of first to fiber or nearly first to fiber markets. And so all that's going incredibly well. We continue to not see and we've been consistent about this since we started talking about this more openly at the Capital Markets Day in September of last year. Not really a whole lot of correlation on fiber footprint, penetration, those kinds of things. We're just not seeing that.
And the reason is, and it's our experience is that mobile is such a considered purchase. And people don't say, hey, as a result of my broadband provider, I need to go exclusively with that same company for my mobile services. People don't really think about that. Gone are the days where like, oh, if you bundled everything together, you only have to write 1 check versus 3 checks, and it's just easier. Everybody is on auto pay. So like that stuff doesn't really matter anymore.
And sure, there's a little bit of a discount for bundling. Yes, sure, that's there. But when people really think back -- step back and think about the overall value proposition and they really critically compare Verizon, T-Mobile, AT&T, we win in those decisions. Regardless of who your home broadband provider is, does bundling is bundling a factor? You bet. Smartphones, tablets, watches, a fixed line product for your home broadband, a wireless product for your home broadband, bundling certainly lowers churn and there's definitely lower churn, the more deeper a relationship is and the more bundled the relationship is.
But it's not causal in that you have a fiber relationship, and therefore, you have outsized mobile performance. We're just not seeing that. And we're not seeing anything that would suggest that that's going to change anytime soon, if ever.
And I think you've talked about in the past, how we've -- the majority of the industry has been converged for quite some time, like north of 80% of it for 3 years?
Yes. Exactly. 85% of American can get for the last 5 years can get their broadband connection and their wireless connection from the same company. And you've seen what you've seen.
And I would add that given that whole dynamic, and we've been consistently talking about that since September of last year, and we are the company with the lowest postpaid phone churn rate. And our competitors are rising in their postpaid phone churn rate. So the rhetoric and the reality are a bit disconnected.
Yes. Yes. Fair enough. Just to flip the fixed wireless, while we're on the broadband topic, you have the -- obviously, you have your aspirations to get to 12 million customers. Maybe you could talk a little bit about where you're winning share? You put up really good numbers year-to-date. Could you talk about the geographic distribution between urban, suburban and rural and maybe how that's changed since you first launched this product a few years ago?
And when you look at who you're competing with, is this price still primarily coming at the expense of cable or are you seeing some success going up against other technologies, whether that's DSL, fiber in some cases, satellite?
Yes. We just absolutely love this product. And this is something that we started talking about in 2021 initially going from 0 customers and we said, hey, by the end of 2025, we think we'll be at 7 million to 8 million. And then, of course, we updated that to 12 million by the end of 2028. This business is performing just beautifully. And what's happened over time is you would think that the performance, as you load more and more customers on the performance would degrade, but just quite the opposite is happening.
We're finding more and more opportunities to give customers a better experience, better speeds, overall reliability and customers are just loving this product. The growth, as you said just a few moments ago, has continued to be outsized. We had another quarter in Q3 of north of 500,000 fixed wireless customers, 560,000 total when you include fiber, but north of 500,000 on just fixed wireless only. Net Promoter Scores continue to rise, what customers are getting for what they're paying continues to be great. It's just a beautiful business for us.
We're not seeing really much change here in terms of the composition of where the business is happening. Roughly 70% is coming from kind of the top 100 markets, kind of urban suburban markets. And the other 30% coming from more rural areas. And we're not really seeing that composition change much. And also to your question, and where that's really kind of coming from has been disproportionately cable. And I'd tell you, our customers, they just -- they love being able to get a great product that's got great utility, great speeds and to be able to free themselves from cable in those higher prices and exploding bundles to be able to get something that's just as great that we have to offer, than people are loving it.
And it's something that I continue to be excited about, particularly when you think about fiber, as fiber comes into markets, where we also have FWA on a hexbin basis, on a per sector basis, the more that we can get fiber kind of going the more it opens up some potential capacity for fixed wireless in those markets as well. So our teams are loving this product. Our customers are loving the product and the results are really off the charts.
And when you look at -- I know you have a smaller fiber T-Fiber platform today. But when you look at the type of customers selecting fiber versus fixed wireless, is there a lot of overlap? Or is it just kind of a different segmentation of the market?
I would say it's a different segmentation. We really see these products as complementary and they don't really substitute one another. The more mainstream customer that's using 400, 500, 600 gigs per month, fixed wireless access, great for them. Customers that are using terabytes, 1, 2, 3 terabytes per month, fiber is probably the right product for them.
And where we can move customers into fiber in those particular areas to free up capacity, not to have a 1-for-1 replacement, but potentially to have 2, 3, 4 to 1 replacement. That's what we want to be able to do.
Yes. Maybe just to switch to like the overall outlook for postpaid phone growth. This has been something that for the last few years, investors seemingly have been bracing for this big slowdown, which hasn't really come or if it's been very moderate. And there have been worries about immigration, government cost cutting, free lines and prepaid to postpaid migrations, inflating numbers and things of that sort. So maybe you could kind of give your view of how -- what the postpaid phone growth environment looks like, not just this year, but out the next couple of years? And obviously, as the big market share taker in the space, can you continue to succeed even if we do see a slowing gross add environment?
Yes, we can absolutely continue to succeed. If you step back for a second, it's really hard for us to like think about net add growth at an industry level. And you were kind of hitting at it just a little bit, which is like different companies report different metrics, and it's just kind of hard to get to because some companies have a first line free construct, which we do not.
And so like it's always just kind of hard to get to. We pay attention to it, but we don't obsess over it, and we don't try to predict it. What we do try to do is say, okay, here's where we think where the market is going. Here's what our plan is and how do we go and execute our plan and deliver for our shareholders relative to what we've said.
And when you look at the overall market, I'm still feeling great about the robustness of the market. Like I said earlier, switching and the momentum continues to be very, very strong. We love where that is. I don't see that changing anytime soon. A lot of questions have been around immigration and some of the changes of this administration's policy around immigration. We haven't seen that in terms of an impact. There might be other impacts with lower transactional prepaid brands. We just have not seen that in our business at all.
And so where we are, even if there is a change, and it's hard to know if there's going to be a change or not. I just don't know. But even if there is, we feel just great about this overall proposition that we have around best value, best network and the very best experience that's creating a great halo for our brand to be able to compete thoughtfully and profitably for high value and accretive customers.
Yes. And just touching on that best network concept. I mean you were very vocal earlier this year that you're now finally getting recognized by third parties for actually having the best network. And I think you've also stated in the past that there's sometimes a lagging kind of customer perception of who has the best network. But maybe you could talk about how you're getting that message out there, how much more room you have to run in terms of convincing the many subscribers who are not on T-Mobile that you truly have the best network.
And then how do you ensure that you remain the best network, especially with Verizon and AT&T, in particular, acquiring some spectrum assets recently to try to bolster their mid-band holdings, how do you think about all of that and kind of maintaining or extending this leadership you have?
Yes. This is why -- this is such an important topic, which is why I think it's one of Srini's top 3 priorities, which is really the first one, which is really making sure that we advance this network leadership position. And get credit for the network realities that we have and to close this perception gap.
And as you guys have probably have seen, we've had a lot more network brand advertised in the marketplace. We've got Billy Bob Thornton running around. And I don't know who the other guy that's the other guy in the other commercial, the -- I can remember the other guy with one of our competitors. I can't remember his name.
Who was it? Oh, yes, yes, it's been so long since I've seen that guy doing. So like it's been a while. So I just couldn't remember who it was for a second. But Billy Bob Thornton, the landman is hot right now. And so we've got him out and kind of talking about this network. I don't know if you guys have seen our latest spot, which is basically, hey, one of my friends said, the T-Mobile network, you suck. And now it doesn't. And what we're trying to do here is to like really kind of acknowledge the reality -- everybody is shouting we got the best this, we get the most reliable that, and the fastest this. Everybody is shouting that. And what we're trying to do is breakthrough.
First, we've been crowned as America's best overall network, which is an incredible achievement. But we're trying to break through all that noise and tell people that years ago, you're right. If you tried T-Mobile years and years ago, not so good. We had challenges. Definitely, you better stay in the left lane of the interstate and not move into the right lane of the interstate, you might lose coverage, that kind of a problem. But if you haven't tried T-Mobile lately, then you just haven't tried T-Mobile because of all of the investment and the 5G 2.5 gigahertz of spectrum that we've deployed, it's just a completely different game.
And I've been a part of this business for, like I said, 32 years, way back T-Mobile VoiceStream Western Wireless. And did I ever think that we would arrive as having the best network like -- and I never thought we would arrive at that place some number of years ago. But after we got the first 100 megahertz spectrum, the 600 megahertz from the incentive auction plus the Sprint transaction with all the 2.5 gigahertz, you started to believe that we can put all this together and create something incredibly special, which is what we've been able to do. And now we're in the early innings or really getting credit for it.
And one of the big opportunities for us to continue to grow is to capture and incent network seekers from leaving AT&T and Verizon and move into T-Mobile. AT&T and Verizon have more than 200 million customers. 70 million of them chose AT&T or Verizon because they had the best network back then. Now we have the best network, and it's a huge opportunity for us to go in and convince those customers that we have the very best network.
And we won't promote our way there. Sure, there's going to be promotions that are always in the marketplace. But this is about speaking to customers, being real truth tellers, resonating with customers locally where it matters and talking to them in very plain spoken ways. Something that we're incredibly excited about, something that we're going to -- you're going to continue to see more and more network-oriented advertisers that continue to get that message out in the marketplace. Yes.
And related to that, I know years ago, you talked about how you were significantly underpenetrated in smaller markets, not necessarily rural, but outside of kind of the top 50 or 100. And you recently closed on the UScellular transaction that gives you a little bit more footprint there. Where are we in terms of your rural expansion, customer penetration and distribution? And is there really any reason why longer term, you shouldn't have kind of a market-leading position in rural America, I mean not putting an exact time line on it, but just based on all the dynamics you've expressed?
That's our belief. Our belief is that we should be the market leader and being the market leader is that's no question in my mind. The question that's in my mind is what is our fair share because being the market leader is the majority share, but the fair share is that's up for interpretation. Is that just taking the 3 bus between AT&T and Verizon and T-Mobile and Comcast and Charter and diving it up, et cetera, a fair share. Not really, because I'm actually inspired by our top 100 markets.
I mean we're sitting here in Los Angeles right now. And here in L.A., we have a share of household position of north of 50%, 5-0, north of 50% and in New York City, we have a share of household north of 50%. In our top 10 markets where we're #1 in share position, we're continuing to grow. Or we're #2 and #3 in share position. We're continuing to grow, as you would expect in #3.
But what people are really surprised about is that we continue to grow across that #1 share of household position. And if you can do 50% plus in 2 of the biggest markets in the country, then our fair share and our ability to attract customers in rural America, I mean that's way beyond what people think.
And then the question is like how long will it take you to get there? We're well on our way. I couldn't be more proud of like what we've done in smaller markets, rural areas. When we started talking about this back in 2021, people thought we might be a little crazy because T-Mobile is a brand that resonates in the big markets, not necessarily in rural America. Now that we're north of 20% share of household beating our declared ambition before we folded in UScellular, now we're just in a great position.
And to your point on UScellular, we have a great -- and we can talk about this more, if you'd like. We have a great opportunity to accelerate this overall position in those markets. So we've got a lot of runway here to go, fair share, the way I think about it is, I think about the top 100 markets inspiring me to go even further in smaller markets from rural areas than you might normally logically think.
And just touching on UScellular briefly. I mean you closed on that August 1. So a few months under your belt. Maybe are there any opportunities within that footprint that we may not be aware of? And maybe just talk about the steps of the integration, making sure you get that right. It sounds like you're accelerating some of the synergy realization, the cost to achieve relative to your original plan. It seems like things are going well so far.
It's going incredibly well. This is something, to your point, we closed on that transaction on August 1 across the entire UScellular footprint, picked up 47 megahertz of spectrum across 37 million POPs in the UScellular footprint. And it's going incredibly well. Everything is right on track.
We just recently stopped promoting the UScellular brand for new customer acquisition and have unified the entire operation behind the T-Mobile brand for new customer acquisition. So any kind of dollars that you spend on promoting UScellular not the most efficient in the world. So now we've stopped that. And we've integrated the network so that UScellular customers not only have their network that they're used to, but they can now touch thousands of T-Mobile sites in that UScellular footprint and beyond.
And then T-Mobile customers in that UScellular footprint can now see the sites that we'll retain. Well, 2,000, maybe a little bit north of 2,000 sites that came from the UScellular network that will ultimately retain and fully integrate into the T-Mobile network. So T-Mobile customers are seeing better coverage. UScellular customers are seeing better coverage in overall performance. And all of that is going incredibly well. We've got some onetime CapEx charges that as you would expect relative to integration in 2025 and 2026. We've said that 2025 is kind of in the $9.5 billion to $10 billion range.
2026, probably more to $10 billion. But I wouldn't necessarily drag that right. So that's kind of a onetime artifacts of this integration. We'll get to more of a normalized kind of $9 billion to $10 billion range in overall CapEx after we get through this integration of '25 and '26. But everything is really on track. The next big thing that I think we'll be talking to our investors about is how the customer migration is going, moving customers from the UScellular environment to the T-Mobile environment, and we'll be starting that in a pretty big way in 2026.
Okay. That's helpful color. We touched on this a little bit earlier in one of the one-on-one meetings, but T-Life has been a big priority for you. Important part of the customer experience. Obviously, helping improve customer experience, reduce customer inbound volumes and obviously, it could help you manage your cost base over time, whether that's through your partner stores or other distribution channels. So maybe you could just talk about where we are in terms of the T-Life evolution and what kind of the next step is to really help that drive customer experience but also financial profitability for the company?
Yes. So if you have any conversation with anyone at T-Mobile about anything T-Mobile, T-Life is definitely going to come up. We are all about T-Life. And this is something that we started talking about in our Capital Markets Day last year and really this vision of being able to concentrate this fragmented app ecosystem into kind of a super app that we call T-Life.
And ultimately driving engagement, transactions, overall interactions as the kind of the source where everything around T-Life will connect into T-Life. And right now, we've got 85 million downloads on T-Life, and we're regularly seeing north of 20 million monthly engaged customers. So 20 million accounts or lines, I should say, actively engaging with T-Life on a monthly basis. It's really beautiful. We've got 2/3 of our overall upgrades that are happening now on the T-Life platform. Basically, digital upgrades a couple of years ago was like almost nothing. And now for that to be 2/3 really, really speaks to the power of the app.
We're now kind of -- when you look at iPhone preorder, back in late September, early October, 3 out of 4 upgrades that happened during that preorder period came through T-Life, hundreds of thousands of transactions, huge scaled events. So that's something that we continue to see a lot of demand for.
What we did with T-Life is we completely not even just reengineered all of our customer journeys. We kind of basically threw them out and rebuilt them from hello. So like in the old app and the old legacy app, it would take you 30-something taps to be able to do something, maybe. And that was a big maybe on that. Within T-Life, now it's down to like 12 taps, super easy, very fast, very efficient. And what we wanted to be able to do is to take these kinds of transactions from them taking hours to them taking minutes. And so all of that's going incredibly well.
Over time, we see operating efficiency improvements here. I was pretty clear at our Capital Markets Day that we'll have less stores over time. We'll have a higher mix of our stores being company-owned retail and operated. We want to really control that experience, perfect that experience, make that experience great for our employees. And then over time, I think we'll have less and less calls into our customer care environment. There's definitely operating efficiencies that will be coming through T-Life. There's no question about that. What we wanted to do is to not think about T-Life through a cost transformation effort, but think about T-life through an experienced transformation effort that is operating efficiencies that will come over time.
All right. That's a very good overview. And maybe before we finish up, I wanted to ask you about satellite and direct-to-cell that's been very topical recently. So you've been a close partner with Starlink in direct-to-cell connectivity. Could you talk about how important that future is to today's customers for edge connectivity and more remote markets? And then not to make you predict on what Elon or SpaceX may or may not do, but they did recently acquire some spectrum and there's been a lot of conversation about whether that opens up additional wholesale opportunities longer term, if they have ever had aspirations to operate their own network through a terrestrial means.
Yes. T-Satellite has been a great complement to our terrestrial network. And it's one of the many benefits that customers can get with Magenta status. And there are so many benefits that between streaming and in-flight WiFi, all kinds of benefits. And then obviously, T-Satellite is one of those benefits as well. And like I said, it's a complement to the terrestrial network, particularly in the 500,000 square miles that are distributed around the country that no terrestrial network can reach.
I wouldn't say it's mainstream and that you would ever seeming to me that you would never have connectivity around that as an always-on evergreen option, but more as a complement to the terrestrial network. And I kind of heard some of those things, too, on the MVNO relationships that might make a lot of sense for them, sounds right to them to go pursue that.
But I think this is a great complement and nice addition to some of those areas where you need coverage, you need to be able to send a text, you might need to be able to send them a place a call, maybe send a picture. It's beautiful for that. But as a mainstream kind of replacement for wireless, I don't see that happening at all. Nice complement though, to our overall business.
All right. Great. Well, we're out of time. So Jon, thank you for joining us today. Appreciate it, and thank you all for coming.
Thank you all. Appreciate it.
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T-Mobile US — Wells Fargo's 9th Annual TMT Summit
T-Mobile US — Wells Fargo's 9th Annual TMT Summit
📊 Kernbotschaft
- Führung: Wechsel zu CEO Srini Gopalan; Management nennt drei Prioritäten: Netzführerschaft ausbauen, Kundenerlebnis via Digitalisierung verbessern und Festnetz/Fixed‑Wireless (Broadband) skalieren.
- Momentum: Starke Nachfrage bei Postpaid und Fixed Wireless; T‑Mobile sieht sich gut positioniert gegen AT&T/Verizon und fokussiert Messaging rund ums "best network".
- Operativ: Kein Kurswechsel bei Breitband‑Ziel (12 Mio. Kunden bis 2028); Wachstum und Profitabilität bleiben Leitplanken.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Netz & Marketing: Massive Marken‑ und Netzwerkoffensive zur Schließung der Wahrnehmungslücke (u.a. neue Werbespots); Anspruch: "America's best overall network".
- Broadband: Fast 9 Mio. Broadband‑Kunden heute; Ziel 12 Mio. bis 2028; Fixed Wireless skaliert vor allem gegen Kabelanbieter, ~70% der Adds in Top‑100 Märkten.
- T‑Life: "Super‑App" mit 85 Mio. Downloads, >20 Mio. monatlich aktive Accounts; 2/3 der Upgrades laufen digital über T‑Life.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Postpaid‑Guide: Postpaid‑Phone Net‑Guide für das Jahr auf ~3,3 Mio. (Management impliziert Q4‑Beitrag entsprechend).
- UScellular: Übernahme geschlossen (1. Aug); +47 MHz Spectrum über ~37 Mio. POPs; ~2.000 Sites werden integriert; Markenpromotion auf T‑Mobile vereinheitlicht.
- CapEx: Einmalige Integrationsaufwände: 2025 ~ $9,5–10 Mrd., 2026 tendenziell ~ $10 Mrd.; danach Normalisierung in einen ~$9–10 Mrd.-Rahmen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Promotionen/Q4: Nachfrage nach Wettbewerbsintensität und Black‑Friday‑Aktivität; Management sieht das Umfeld als "vibrant" aber beherrschbar, 4‑for‑$100 bleibt nur kleiner Angebotsanteil.
- Fiber vs. FWA: Diskussion, ob Bundling (Fiber+Mobile) Churn langfristig senkt; T‑Mobile sieht Bundling nicht als existenzielle Bedrohung und bezeichnet Produkte als komplementär.
- UScellular‑Integration: Fragen zu Kundenumzug, Synergiebeschleunigung und Timing; Management plant größere Migrationsschritte 2026 und meldet bisherigen Integrationsfortschritt positiv.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Präsentation stärkt das Bild von T‑Mobile als Netzwerk‑ und Wachstumsstory: klare operative Prioritäten, sichtbare Skalierung bei Fixed Wireless, starke digitale Distribution via T‑Life und kurzfristige Integrationskosten durch UScellular. Für Aktionäre: strukturelles Wachstumspotenzial, aber mit temporären CapEx/Integrationsausgaben; Kernrisiken bleiben Wettbewerbsreaktionen und die Aufgabe, Wahrnehmung in Kundenwahl zu monetarisieren.
T-Mobile US — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. [Operator Instructions] You may also sending a post at T-Mobile IR at mikesievert I would now like to turn the conference over to Cathy Yao, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for T-Mobile US. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Welcome to T-Mobile's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Joining me on our call today are Mike Sievert, our President and CEO; Srini Gopalan, our COO and incoming CEO; Peter Osvaldik, our CFO; as well as other members of the senior leadership team. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. We encourage you to review the risk factors set forth in our SEC filings. Our earnings release, investor fact book and other documents related to our results as well as reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP results discussed on this call can be found on our Investor Relations website. With that, let me now turn it over to Mike.
Thanks, Cathy. Great job. Good morning, everybody. Well, as you can see, Srini and I are here in New York with the senior team, ready to discuss another truly extraordinary quarter for T-Mobile. But first, let me do a couple of welcomes. I want to first start by welcoming Andre Almeida to the team and to the table. Andre is a deep industry expert and a long-time colleague of Srini's, and he has also been a strategic adviser to me on many topics for many years, and I am so happy that he is here leading such a big part of our team.
Thanks, Mike.
And also, You all know Dr. John Saw, now serving as our President of Technology, and resident genius. John, thanks for stepping into this expanded role for us as President of Technology. John and I go way back to 2009 at Clearwire. So together and separately, we've been stewards of this centerpiece of T-Mobile's 5G spectrum strategy for a long time. It's great to have you here as our President.
Thank you, Mike.
All right. Well, let me just start by saying this. This call is an especially meaningful one for me as it actually marks the 50th quarterly earnings report for T-Mobile. And that means it's also my 50th report here. I've been here for every single one to offer my perspective and to help shape our narrative about the future, and I have had a blast. Leading this company over the past 13 years has been the honor of a lifetime. Together we've transformed T-Mobile from a distant #4 player in crisis and decline into the world's most successful and customer-centric telecommunications company. I've seen T-Mobile go from last to first, with the best network, the best value, the best customer experience in the market. And today, that margin of our differentiation is only widening and the growth and financial momentum that flows from this in many ways, only just beginning.
I'm excited to continue to support this team right here, and the strategies that enable the success in my new role as Vice Chairman. Just a few weeks ago, I talked about what it means to get CEO succession right, but you do it when three things are true. First, when the company has never been more successful. Second, when the opportunity ahead has never been more exciting. And third and most importantly, when the leader to take us into the future is fully ready. Q3 is living proof that all three are true for T-Mobile right now. Now Srini is going to cover the results here in a minute with you, but I just want to say, "Wow, what another spectacular quarter." This team once again delivered the thoughtful, profitable and durable growth for which we are known. We smashed not only all-time customer records, like best-ever postpaid account growth, best ever total postpaid net additions while also leading the industry in postpaid phones with over 1 million nets and phone churn. But importantly, we also once again led the industry in financial growth by a wide margin across a wide variety of metrics beating expectations again.
Clearly, it is evident that this team under Srini's leadership executes like no other team. This quarter was a showcase of Srini's and this entire team's ability to rally the organization to deliver exceptional results while at the same time, building on the durable advantages that make it all possible. T-Mobile has never been stronger. Our growth runway is broad-based. Our differentiation is widening, the Un-carrier ethos continues to disrupt the industry and delight customers, the opportunity ahead to generate even more outsized durable and profitable growth across wireless, broadband, smart new adjacencies as well as digital transformation has never been more exciting. So with that, let's dive in. Srini, in more ways than one, over to you, my friend.
Thank you, Mike. Hi, everyone, and thanks for joining in. I can't wait to start talking about Q3, but I'll take a minute. I just want to start by saying it's an incredible privilege to be here with this fantastic team, the best in the industry. And in the last 13 years, Mike, you have truly turned around this business and you've made the Un-carrier into this force for good. This disruptive, innovative, the most admired telco in the world. The network has gone from last to first, like you've talked about and we've delivered an industry-leading customer and financial growth. You and the team have created more value than any other CEO in the history of this industry, not just in the U.S., but globally. Thank you.
Look, I've been involved in this team for some time now. And the one truly amazing thing, the Un-carrier has done, and this is rare in this industry, differentiation. It's the one truly rare commodity in this industry. For a large part of this journey, that differentiation has come from outstanding customer value and experience. And as I look forward now, the foundation for the next big leap has already been laid. We have the opportunity to widen this differentiation even further with network leadership and digital transformation. I can talk about this all day, but I'll come back to it in our continuing strategy. But first off, to Q3 and the phenomenal quarter we've delivered.
Starting with wireless, we had our all-time best postpaid customer account growth. And that's saying something when it comes from the Un-carrier. We achieved our best-ever total postpaid net additions and delivered over 1 million postpaid phone net additions, our best Q3 in over a decade. And that coming from T-Mobile is something.
What I like is how broad-based this growth is. It's in the top 100 markets, it's in smaller markets and rural areas. Even within the top 100, our postpaid share of households is up where we're #1, #2 and #3 in market share. So it's truly broad-based growth. And it's not just gross additions momentum. In Q3, we led the industry in postpaid phone churn. So across the board, tremendous customer momentum. And it's not just volume. It's also in value.
We saw postpaid ARPA grew by 3.8% on an organic basis when you exclude kind of the dilutive impact of UScellular, Metronet and Lumos. We're also delighted to have welcomed UScellular customers. to the T-Mobile family and provided them with immediate benefits from an improved network experience to great thankings like T-Mobile Tuesdays. Integration is off to the races we're using everything from the T-Mobile playbook that we learned and perfected with Sprint, and we're simultaneously deepening our relationships.
Let me turn to broadband, another huge growth opportunity for us. Again, we led the industry with over 500,000 customer additions on 5G broadband and over 50,000 on the newest addition to our family fiber, and that includes the contribution from Metronet following our close on 24th July. This is an amazing business. And here's an often underrated fact. Our 5G broadband ARPUs and customer lifetime values are very similar to our postpaid phone business, and that just drives great value creation.
Now our customer results and industry-leading customer results flow through to industry-leading financial growth. Our postpaid service revenue grew by 12% year-over-year. Now that's obviously industry-leading. Our service revenue as a whole, 9%; core adjusted EBITDA, 6%; and another incredible quarter of service revenue to free cash flow conversion at 26%. So there's great customer momentum. And importantly, that's translating into that one key metric, cash conversion. So overall, an amazing quarter.
Let me come back to what I was saying earlier about my strategic priorities and spend a moment on that. We start by saying I have enormous conviction in what the team outlined during Capital Markets Day. And even more so now that we're a year into that journey. Everything we've seen in the last year makes us double down on our convictions and convinces us that we're heading in the right direction. I expect continued profitable growth in our core wireless and broadband businesses, and this is the big deal, which is that momentum, which we are seeing right now is being driven by widening differentiation, which means it's truly sustainable. And that widening differentiation is driven by kind of two big things. On the one hand, you have our growing network leadership, not just in reality, but in perception as well. And that's complemented by our digital transformation, which just takes pain out of the customer process.
Let me talk about this in a bit more detail. Start with the natural place to start, our network. We're often asked how big is this whole network perception opportunity. Let me give you some sense of it. One out of every three AT&T and Verizon customers chose them at some point because they were the best network. And these customers are paying a premium for something that is simply no longer true. You work the math. That means there are 70 million customers that are paying a premium for something that is simply no longer true, and that we can unlock with our best network. And more and more of these customers are beginning to change their perception. In Q3, we hit an all-time high in our network perception amongst switches, and that's a big driver to the outperformance we're seeing.
Now our network perception is changing because the reality is changing. Let me give you a couple of examples of how powerful our network is. Ookla data shows that our median download speeds on the new iPhone are nearly 90% faster than one of our benchmark competitors and over 40% faster than the other. That's why when you have jump balls with the device change, you see the Un-carriers continued outperformance, driving superiority in the network for a new device like this and such visible superiority is a huge driver to our performance.
Another great example is our 5G broadband business. Now using the fallow capacity model in the last 2 years, we've nearly doubled our number of customers. Each of them use 30% more. So a phenomenal 580 gigabytes a month. At the same time, so doubling customers, 30% more usage per customer, at the same time, our average download speeds have increased by nearly 50%, and our wireless speeds have gone up as well. That's what an Ultra capacity network truly looks like. And we're not standing still. So we're making progress on perception. The reality is only getting better, and we will not stop. We're not standing still. We're building and upgrading thousands of new cell sites, many of which are in smaller markets and rural areas, and we're deploying and leveraging our nationwide 5G advanced network. I want all of you to know that I am committed to not only being the network leader of today, but also investing tirelessly to defend and widen the margin of our network leadership for tomorrow.
Let me talk a bit about digital transformation. The amount of friction and frustration we cause customers today because of our processes and the state of evolution in this industry is phenomenal. We have a huge opportunity to change that with our digital transformation, and we saw great progress in adoption. Now I love this stat. 3 out of 4 of our iPhone upgrades during our preorder window were digital. That is widening differentiation. Together with the stats I shared with you about network quality, that creates a moment where it's clear that we are different. And T-Life continues to be the center of our digital engagement with over 85 million app in stores. Look, I can sit here all day and talk about all of this. But ultimately, what will matter is our results going forward, quarter after quarter. And Q3 is just another proof point that the Un-carrier strategy is working, that our differentiation is widening.
Now Peter will give you an update shortly on our guidance. I just want to say that I'm really excited to discuss our guidance in detail for '26 and '27 on our year-end call. I plan on increasing our guidance for '26 and '27, and that reflects the core strength in the underlying business and M&A. And I'm looking forward to our future. And as I look at it, it's even better than what we said a year ago.
Let me conclude by saying our differentiation is only widening. This team's ability to deliver is totally unmatched. We've come a long way, and our most exciting days are ahead of us. Our future is bright. Our vision is clear. Our results will continue to speak for themselves as we march towards our lofty long-term goals. With that, over to you, Peter.
All right. Thanks, Srini. As you can see, we had a fabulous Q3, which underpins the confidence in our increased guidance. So starting with customers, we are raising our expectation for total postpaid net additions to now be between 7.2 million to 7.4 million, an increase of just over 1 million at the midpoint. As part of that total, we are also increasing our expectation for postpaid phone net additions now expected to be 3.3 million, highlighting the tremendous momentum we're seeing in the business. and on the strength of our T-Fiber rollout, we are also raising our fiber customer net additions guidance to be approximately 130,000 this year, up from approximately 100,000 previously. We now expect postpaid ARPA growth of at least 3.5% for the full year, including the dilutive impacts of UScellular, Metronet and Lumos. Excluding the impacts of UScellular and the Fiber JVs, our underlying ARPA growth is now expected to be up approximately 4% for the full year. We now expect core adjusted EBITDA to be between $33.7 billion and $3.9 billion for the full year, an increase of $300 million at the midpoint, reflecting our ongoing core operating strength and the inclusion of UScellular into our full year guidance. .
And speaking of UScellular in September, we both increased our synergy guidance to $1.2 billion in total OpEx and CapEx run rate synergies and accelerated the time line to realizing those run rate synergies to within 2 years of close. As part of that accelerated synergy realization plan, we expect to incur approximately $300 million in cost to achieve in Q4, primarily driven by merger-related costs related to UScellular which will be excluded from core adjusted EBITDA.
In network, where we remain focused on using our customer-driven coverage model to both defend and expand the margin of our network leadership, the merger also allowed us to accelerate a broader network transformation initiative focused on optimizing customer experience and value through cell site location optimization. As part of this effort in Q4, we expect to incur approximately $160 million in additional expenses related to cell site decommissioning that will be excluded from core adjusted EBITDA. With all M&A and financing incorporated, we anticipate Q4 depreciation and amortization expense of approximately $3.7 billion and interest expense of $1 billion.
All right. Turning to cash CapEx. We now expect cash CapEx to be approximately $10 billion, an increase of $500 million, driven entirely by the inclusion of UScellular. And we now expect adjusted free cash flow, including payments for merger-related costs in the range of $17.8 billion to $18 billion, representing an increase of $200 million at the lower end of the range.
All right. To sum it all up, not only did our results continue to demonstrate our ability to consistently execute and deliver outsized and profitable growth, we could not be more excited to carry our strong momentum far into the future. So with that, I'll now turn the call back to Cathy to begin the Q&A. Cathy?
Thanks, Peter. All right, let's get to your questions. [Operator Instructions] We will start with a question on the phone and wrap a few minutes early for closing remarks today. Operator, first question, please.
First question will come from Benjamin Swinburne with Morgan Stanley.
2. Question Answer
one for Srini and maybe one for Peter. Sweeny, you talked about sort of this -- the network perception gap and committing to narrowing that, can you guys talk a little bit about your strategy and tactics to close that gap as quickly as possible. I would think the faster you can convince customers, you have the best network across the country, the faster the business can grow. So your intentions are clear, but we'd love to hear about how you're thinking about making that happen beyond just spending more on marketing. And then, Peter, just coming back to the USM synergies very clear sort of how that's going to ramp over the -- well, very clear where you're going to get to at the end of the ramp. If you can talk a little bit about the path from here to full run rate. If there's any guidance you can provide to us on sort of the time line to capture all those synergies and what that looks like over the course of the next 2 years?
That's good. We'll start with the first question with sir. Maybe Mike wants to pile in on that one, too, and then have it over.
Yes. Thanks, Mike. Thanks for the question, Ben. Let me start with where we are on network perception. I mean one of the reasons you saw the outsized delivery this quarter is the extent to which we're already closing the gap. I mean if you look at this quarter, you saw at the margin more switching behavior. I mean that's due to a few different things. You had a new device going in. You also saw kind of churn normalization, partly driven by the fact that some of our competitors had 36-month contracts over a period of time, et cetera, et cetera, all of which meant at the margin more switching. And at that point in time, seeing our network perception really widen the gap. Like I said earlier, our perception amongst switchers is now at an all-time high. That's what drove some of the volume. So that gives you some sense of the critical impact this has.
To your piece of what are we going to do about it? I think this is something we will attack across multiple vectors. Marketing is clearly 1 piece of it. There's also a reality, which is network perception ultimately is an incredibly local thing. It's down to how each customer feels about it. And when we think about activating all of our channels, activating digital to actually speak to customers at an individual basis. This is where some of our digital transformation and our network perception, our two big initiatives actually have a huge overlap. Using digital, using our local reach in stores and as an organization becoming obsessed about how we drive this message of network perception home are central to how we drive this. The other piece is also just making it easier to come to us because network perception is a barrier, and inertia is a big part of network perception. So a lot of the stuff that we're talking about in our digital transformation just makes it a lot easier to come to us. And again, 75% of our upgrades, and you'll see an increasing number of our acquisition will come to us through digital channels. And that reduces a lot of the barrier of the switch because one of the big barriers is just kind of -- I kind of get that T-Mobile now has the best network, but am I going to take the time to do it. So that's -- it's a multitude of initiatives, and to a large part, it's the intersection space between our digital transformation and our network perception.
Anything to add, Mike?
Yes. The only other two things I'd say is continuing to have the best network. We have a network that's 2 years ahead of everybody else. We've talked about it being still 2 years ahead, 2 years from now and making sure that we're widening that gap. And we've talked a lot about our strategies using things like customer-driven coverage to direct our network capital into places that really matter for customers, to improve their experience, to make sure that they have the best possible experience there. And then when you have big switching like in quarters like this one, we have over 400 -- we have nearly 400,000 accounts come, that is one of the biggest ways to change network perception because think about the way that you learn about network perception is from friends and family and neighbors and the more of those customers that join T-Mobile, they talked to it about their friends and families, yes, we'll do marketing and all those things, but the most powerful way to change perception is from recommendations from the people around you. So big -- continuing to have big quarters like this one is a big part of changing those perceptions.
Love the question, Ben. hopefully, what you're hearing from us is lots of confidence because we're in this kind of sweet spot on this one, where the data tells us two things. It tells us, one, what we're doing is working, and it was a big factor, as Srini said, in fueling all-time record customer results this quarter. So that's great. And at the second time, the data also tells us there is lots of room to run here. So a lot of people still have yet to make a decision either on the vector of it being worth it or on the vector of it being better. And that just shows us that a strategy that's working has lots of potential tailwind to fuel our business into the future. So we're feeling good.
All right. UScellular, I couldn't be more excited about how we've hit the ground running, both with Jon Freier and his team from a customer perspective and Dr. Saw running to the races on network. So you're going to see this kind of go exactly except quicker than Sprint. And what that really means from a modeling perspective, I won't get into the dollars we'll incorporate that into our '26 and '27 guide. But you're going to see us invest in those costs to achieve early on. So I'd expect the vast majority of those to come in 2026 and then achieve the full run rate of those synergies. Remember, it was $950 million of OpEx synergies and $250 million of CapEx synergies, and we'll achieve those inside of 2 years. So as I model it out kind of by the end of '27, you're going to have those full synergies already coming to bear.
The next question will come from John Hodulik with UBS.
And one last two again to Mike, obvious retirement. Can we dig into the broadband business. I guess, first on the fiber, you guys had some new disclosures. But I guess for Strad, how big of an opportunity do you think the sort of fiber business is? I know you have targets out there for homes pass. But can you talk about how many sort of homes passed you have now at fiber? How do you expect that to grow? Any targets for penetration? And then maybe comment on the sort of environment for more deals to potentially back up the JVs you already have out there. And then on the fixed wireless business, obviously, a big quarter. What's the opportunity there? And sort of what drove the sort of big lift in net adds this quarter? And sort of how do you see that playing out as we look into '26?
Thanks for that question, John. So look, I'll talk about the big picture in terms of how we see broadband as an opportunity first and then spend a few minutes on FWA as well as fiber. We're really excited by the broadband opportunity. This plays to the heart of the Un-carrier because what we've got here is customers in a place where they have an inferior product quite often where they're paying a huge premium. It's classic on Un-carrier territory, going in and attacking incumbents who have not invested in their networks and who are charging a large premium for a product that isn't living up to expectations. Now we'll go after that with both FWA as well as fiber. We see those as complementary. And the way we think about both those businesses is setting them up in a way that the economics allow us to pursue the Un-carrier strategy. What I love about FWA is the heart of it is the fallow capacity model. And what we're benefiting from is the Ultra capacity network, but also the rapid evolution you're seeing in mobile technology, which is moving far quicker than a lot of other technologies, which is giving us more and more runway and also making the product incredibly sustainable. We see FWA as not a temporary category, but something that's here to stay as mobile technology gets better and better and taps into a customer need, which a lot of people trapped in old relationships with incumbents are suffering from.
Fiber, again, we've been very thoughtful about setting up the economics in a way that we can scale and sustain this business. The way we thought about fiber is go after specific places where we're confident that the economics will work for us to create a win-win situation for customers. That's been the heart of the areas that we've picked fiber, places where we're either first to fiber, near first to fiber, places where we believe we can set up these JVs that allows us to be capital light. Also, these JVs allow us to bring complementary skills into the things that we bring to the table, like distribution, like the brand, along with the expertise that those folks bring in. Now we've talked about numbers on both of those. Let me just hand over to Andre to share his perspective on the scalability of these businesses.
Thank you, Srini. As you said, and double-click on a couple of the topics. One, I think we're very, very happy with our FWA results. I think as Srini mentioned in his opening comments, we did more than 500,000 net adds. That's an impressive 22% year-on-year growth. So we see a lot of strength and a lot of runway. And what I think has been outstanding about our FWA product is it's not just industry-leading, something we introduced into the U.S. in 2021, the product keeps getting better. In 2 years, the speeds that we're giving our customers have gone up 50%, while we almost doubled the base of customers we have. So this is clearly, as Srini mentioned, a very sustainable product that we see is here for the long run.
On fiber, I think we've been very consistent. We see this as a great complement to our FWA nationwide offer, and we love the business under the right parameters as Srini said. And these parameters for us have always been threefold. One is technology. We love fiber, and we love the fact that we can be present in the two technologies that are gaining share in the U.S. market, FWA and Fiber. The second one is price. We went -- go into fiber and FWA to create outsized returns for our shareholders. That means we need to be able to look at these opportunities at the right price, at the right valuation.
And lastly, as Srini mentioned, is structure. We are committed to our capital-light structure because it not only allows us to scale, but it also allows us, as Srini mentioned, to use complementary capabilities. We're great at what we do. Our brand translates very strongly into fiber and our early results show it, but we also love to bring in partners that are experts in building out and to make sure that the two of us together can create the best of both worlds. And as Srini mentioned, a win-win for customers.
So John, hopefully, what you're hearing is lots of confidence in the numbers that we've put out. We said 12 million fixed wireless access -- we've said 12 million to 15 million homes passed on fiber. Are we looking at new assets? Yes, as long as they fit the criteria that Andre just laid out. But you know what this is like, we put a set of numbers out there, you can see the confidence we have in hitting those numbers, and then we strive to exceed them. That's exactly what you should expect in broadband as well.
Your next question will come from Samuel McHugh with BNP.
A couple of quick questions. First on just running the numbers on cost of acquisition. It doesn't look like you're spending a ton more on a per-sub basis to acquire these customers versus recent quarters, which I think is quite encouraging. But can you just tell me what you're seeing in terms of second FWA as well and the competitive environment? And I guess related to that, Srini, you talked about digital customer acquisition and a Verizon customer. apologies. I've been trying the T-Mobile network with the T Life app and the EM -- is that what you're talking about when you think about pushing digital for customer acquisitions? Should we expect you to be a bit more vocal about the ability for competitor customers to trial the network and then go through the customer acquisition journey through that? Is that what we're looking at?
Well, let's start with Peter on the first question and then maybe turn to Srini on the second question. We probably won't be able to give you as much as you're hoping for on this, Sam, telling you all of our plans on how we're going to compete. So you might be a little unsatisfied. But we'll start with the one we could answer.
Absolutely. Good, you're not asking for my spreadsheet, it's Srini's. Look, you're absolutely right in terms of we continue to see extremely strong customer lifetime values. And from a SAC perspective and everything that comes from that, including linkage of our top-tier promos primarily to higher tier ARPU plans. And you'll love this, in fact, we now believe for the full year, we'll have ARPU increase of approximately 2%, so up from 1.5% that we had previously guided to. So that's really strong. But yes, we're continuing to see very strong customer lifetime values. And it's -- of course, it's because promos are an element of this industry, always have been. It's great when you see promotional times like holiday seasonality because it creates more customer consideration. And in those moments, we win. But one of the big tailwinds that we're also seeing that drives customer switching to T-Mobile, as we've been talking about here, so excitedly is this best value, best network, best experience proposition. And the more we're getting from a tailwind on Best Network, that's just another benefit in terms of why customers are coming here. So we're very excited about what we're seeing from customer lifetime values and how that translates into ARPAs and ARPUs.
Yes. So on the digital acquisition that, Sam, as Mike said, we're not going to talk to you about all of our plans in detail. But look, a good parallel of what you should expect is what we did with upgrades. Like we said, 75% of our upgrades are now on T-Life. Now the heart of getting there was to actually take the upgrade process and simplify it, which is to take this painful -- I don't remember, John, it was about 36 steps or something like that and bring that down to something which feels like a transaction you're doing in 2025 rather than -- it's digital acquisition and moving our customers to digital is fundamentally going after to customer pain points and going after the way we've always done things in this industry and change and radically relooking at that process and just making it simpler to do the one thing you can't do on your wireless, which is by wireless. We feel it's kind of crazy that you can do -- you can shop for any other category on your wireless except for wireless. And so it's a lot more than some of the things we've been doing, like test drive and being able to try out the T-Mobile network. It's a comprehensive relook at the entire process, and we'll work at that.
AI is playing a big role in this. And we talked a year ago about our intention to co-invent with OpenAI. And in these breakthrough results you're seeing on the upgrade path that's starting to come together. So quietly, some of the early elements of intent CX are hitting customers now. And one of the reasons -- I love it when you say this, Srini, like you could buy everything under the sun from this mobile phone, except your mobile phone service at scale. And the reason for that is it's a very complicated transaction involving trade-ins and valuing trade-ins and signing up for a 2-year payment plan, picking a plan, getting a promotion against that plan, possibly a promotion against that device and people throw their hands up and say, I need help. Well, AI is great at making the complicated uncomplicated. And we're seeing that in our upgrade flows. You start with your existing customers that already know how to transact with you, but there's obvious extensions here. And it's really great to see the power of this partnership starting to pay dividends. .
Thanks, Mike. Thanks, Sam. Let's move on to our next question on the phone, please.
Next question will come from David Barden with New Street Research.
It's really great to be here again. Srini, congratulations on the new seat. Mike, while I have you, I wanted to follow up on a couple of things. One was, last quarter, you were joking with Craig about how new the satellite product was and you didn't have any real color on what it meant for T-Mobile to be partnered with Starlink. I would love to get an update on kind of your learnings there and what that partnership means for you and how that partnership might be different than, say, AT&T and Verizon, who have invested in AST space mobile? And the second thing would be just on the comments you were making about the AI stuff, A year ago, you had Sam and you had Janssen on stage, and you were talking about all the amazing stuff that AI was going to do with you kind of maybe disrupted the business model, the way you disrupted the go-to-market model in mobile. Could you kind of give us where we are now on that path? And maybe Srini add where we're going to go.
Yes, I'll make a couple of comments and then turn to Srini. First of all, how we do it is we tend -- one of the things that has always worked well for T-Mobile as we look around corners. And you think about when we kind of invented the fixed wireless industry, nobody really believed us that we would create what we've created. Now they're all following and their best argument is, well, maybe it's temporary, maybe it will only last a decade. I mean good luck with that. So we saw that future, and now we're leading that industry. When I went on stage with Elon to say we were going to co-invent satellite directly to your cellular. People didn't believe that, that would happen. Some did, some didn't. But then what happened was really interesting. We did that announcement, so everybody would know we had this technology alliance. And then we put our heads down and did the inventing. And it took 2 years before we came back with a product and began beta testing it. And so that's what we did a year ago. We talked about the future of 6G and that together, we intended with the world leaders to craft 6G for the benefit of T-Mobile and T-Mobile's customers and that an inherent part of this was this idea called AI RAN that AI would be at the core of 6G networks. -- that it would be something that would be co-invented with T-Mobile's influence. And so we brought Jensen, we brought Nokia, we brought Ericsson NVIDIA, and we laid out a future there. We did the same thing with how AI could transform subscription-based businesses. You can't just take all those models and implement them. You have to co-invent agents for every customer intention. And when you can do that, you can serve customers where they are. You can meet them with exactly what they're trying to accomplish and solve their problem and create a deeper relationship faster and more efficiently than the old way. And so these are the things we do. We lay out a future. We then go put our heads down and do them. To the question that you're asking, how are we doing at the ones we laid out a year ago? We are so pleased with it. As I said, intent CX is well on its way. In fact, it's starting to touch customers now which is really great. It's starting to affect our actual results, as you saw in these upgrade rates. And what we're doing in the labs together with OpenAI about how we can totally transform the customer experience is blowing our minds. So we are really excited about that. You also asked about what we see in the future as it relates to direct to sell and SpaceX. And it's hard to predict right now, other than that it's going to get better. We see version 2 over the next few years going to be backed as you saw in recent transactions by more spectrum. That means as an adjacent service to terrestrial, something that adds on and makes dead zones more of a thing of the past, it's going to get better, and that's our whole goal here. So I don't know if you want to comment on what you're seeing Srini working closely with them.
Yes. So I think there's this one remarkable thing about us as a company, right, which is this ability to have a clear vision, deliver stuff today and then build for tomorrow. Now the same thing true of satellite. We work very, very closely with SpaceX. I mean the whole idea of flying towers in space, being able to communicate with a mobile device, which is also moving. That technology is something that people like John Saw have worked very closely with SpaceX to really invent. And our vision of this whole space started off with the end of dead zones, I think we're making huge progress on that. But when I pull together everything from 6G to satellite and the rest of it, I'll draw a parallel to where we are in 5G. We've invented a lot of the space. We're continuing to work on that. We believe as this technology matures, we will be 2 to 3 years ahead of the rest of the industry just as we are in 5G. And that's the core of it, which is deliver things today that customers can actually use. We're seeing that in terms of upgrades on our plans. We're seeing lots of customers being able to benefit from this, and at the same time, have this vision of the world where we will be 2 years ahead of everyone else as the technology evolves. I think the same thing is true of AI as well. AI today makes a massive difference. The stuff Mike was talking about in terms of customer-driven coverage. -- that is AI and use today. And at the same point, we're looking at what is everything we can do in the future, how does AI sit at the core of our network and drive everything we do with our network.
Your next question will come from Michael Rollins with Citi.
My congratulations on your successful tenure at T-Mobile. Best wishes as you move on to your next role as Vice Chairman. And Srini, congratulations on becoming CEO. So in terms of the switcher pool, can you discuss what you're seeing from that? Do you expect it to be higher for longer? And given that you use a 2-year EIP for your devices, is there something about your customer cohorts that could result in the future increase in upgrade rates to sustain or enhance customer retention?
Yes. I mean let's start by pointing out that we're just ending now, as an industry, a cycle where we did see industry churn, particularly at our two benchmark competitors suppressed temporarily as they moved from 2-year to 3-year payment plans across the majority of their customers. And now we're starting to round trip those 3-year plans and customers are rolling off those at a normal pace. And so what you're seeing across the industry in 2025 is industry churn kind of returning to normative rates based on that dynamic and lots of other dynamics, but based on that dynamic. We haven't announced any plans to change our payment plans. So you have a run rate happening now that has a little bit of elevated switching due to a number of different dynamics, but that's certainly one of them.
And just on the margin, this is really good because as you saw in this quarter's results, I mean, as Srini likes to say, more jump balls is good for us as the net share taker. And so -- that's a dynamic that we really like. Maybe, John, you could talk about what you're seeing out in the marketplace as it relates to the state of competition because I know one of the things that's kind of implied in your question is that a lot of people look at our industry, and they're concerned about overinvesting in competition. We've covered earlier that, that's not what's happening, at least not at T-Mobile, we're really comfortable with what we're seeing. But what are the dynamics driving our outsized performance out there in the marketplace?
Yes. Thank you, Mike. And thank you, Mike Rollins. The overall dynamics is it's pretty consistent relative to the overall promotional activities that are happening in the market. So what you're seeing with us is this overall widening differentiation that both Mike and Srini have talked about that more and more people are realizing that there is a far better experience with the network at T-Mobile in addition to our long-held fame of value, and then, of course, what we're seeing is more opportunities in our top 100 markets. And then, of course, in our smaller market, rural areas where we have continued growth out there. So this promotional construct that we've been using has been really resonating, which is our new plans on our experience more experience beyond plans, some of our no trade up to a certain value in terms of what you're getting with us. all of those promotional constructs are working really, really well. But the overall environment is just generally being consistent. And then like what Mike said just a few moments ago, more switching in the marketplace against that backdrop is definitely helping to fuel our overall momentum in the marketplace. And of course, with lower churn and better retention that you're seeing from T-Mobile, coupled with higher gross adds, that's producing the overall volume that you're seeing in the marketplace. So we feel really good about what happened in Q3, obviously. We're seeing that momentum continue into Q4 so far, and that's reflected in the numbers and the guidance that you heard from both Srini and Peter just a few moments ago. So -- all of that is going incredibly well. We're excited about it. It's going against our plans, and that's what's really happening out there in the marketplace.
And what about -- how is it affecting customer lifetime values the state of the competition out there?
Yes. Our CLVs have been very, very resilient. So when you look -- we look at this, we don't report, obviously, CLVs,and we don't look at this on a daily or a weekly basis. So we certainly look at it and monitor these very, very carefully on a monthly and quarterly and ongoing basis. But overall, CLVs are holding very, very constant. As you're seeing premium plan adoption, customers self-select and up that rate card continuing to increase. Churn continuing to decrease relative to what others have seen in the marketplace. So overall COVs are holding very, very steady across the entire portfolio.
It's interesting because one of the critiques that some people have in the industry is they cherry pick one metric such as a device promotion and a broad CLV picture for customers and talk themselves into saying, well, competition is overheated. But that's not our experience. That might be an experience at some other companies, I don't know. But it's not our experience. And I think it's important to see because it's overall an equation of how long does the customer stay, what else do they buy from us? How deep does their relationship become? How do we monetize that relationship? How efficiently can we serve them and so on and all those? Even Peter has been forced to admit that our ARPA guidance needs to be increased yet again. And that's saying something.
Next question will come from Craig Moffett with MoffettNathanson,
Mike, let me be -- on the long list of people saying congratulations on a remarkable run, and Srini congratulations on stepping into the new role. And while I have all of you, let me also say happy birthday to Cathy. Cathy, happy birthday. I want to ask about the iPhone cycle. There's been a lot of talk about this being certainly not a super cycle, but at least a more normal and more robust cycle than the last couple of years. Are you seeing that? Do you think that that's likely to have carryover into the fourth quarter? And if so, what kind of opportunities does that create? And what kind of cost does it create in terms of accelerated number of subsidies that you would have to give for retention as well as customer acquisition.
Okay. Great. Srini.
Yes. Thanks for the question, Craig. So we're seeing -- this has been our best iPhone performance. We're seeing a strong cycle now to your question of what does that land up, meaning for promotions and spend and the rest of it. Look, the heart of it is every time there's a new device, people sort of reassess their choice. And that's one of the big drivers to our momentum in the last quarter. And when people reassess their choice and differentiation has widened, you see the kind of performance you saw in the last quarter. As we look at Q4, our momentum into Q4 is continuing to be strong, and that's driven our raise in our guide on postpaid phones. And so we're feeling really good about where we are in Q4. Now one of the really nice things when you drive volume through widening differentiation rather than simply promoting is you can drive volume at the same point as deliver the outsized financial results we've delivered this quarter. So we're feeling really good, and that's reflected in kind of our guide for Q4, not just in terms of what we're saying on volumes, but also what we've said in EBITDA and importantly, free cash flow.
Operator, let's do one more question on the phone, and then we'll turn to social.
All right. I'm wondering, too, could we make it a hard-hitting question for Jon about the network. Something I said in my opening remarks, by the way, this is my 50th one of these. And in the era where we had Jon and Braxton and Neville. Neville did all the talking because nobody could understand that we might actually be able to build a leading network, so he was always explaining it. So poor Jon is going to sit here because everybody said, "Hey, yes, you guys are -- you guys have the best networks. We're convinced."p
I'm from Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo. I guess I will try to touch on the network given that prompt. Maybe you could talk a little bit about your spectrum positioning today. Obviously, one of your competitors announced a large deal. There's another block of spectrum AWS-3 that's speculated out there. So certainly seems like they're coming with more spectrum soon. You talked about not just defending, but extending your lead over the next couple of years. So you talk about what your -- where you're still deploying spectrum maybe where there are opportunities to add given the balance sheet strength you have and other things you're doing on the technology side within the network to help extend the lead. That would be great.
I love it, Eric. All kidding aside, that's actually -- that's a really important question. And maybe we start with Srini, characterize what you saw in those transactions, maybe what our thinking, our thought process is and was. And then maybe we can talk -- I have here from Jon too because -- while spectrum is the lifeblood, we're the leaders here and intend to remain the leaders and extend our leadership. There's a lot more to network leadership than spectrum. But first and foremost on spectrum, Srini.
So we love our current spectrum position. We not only have more spectrum than anyone else. We have better spectrum than anyone else. Now that drives a lot of decisions. And we see ourselves as kind of incredibly responsible caretakers of your investment in us. And therefore, the way we think when spectrum comes up, and there's been quite a few secondary market transactions on spectrum. We go through kind of the rigorous analysis of what is better? Is it better to buy the spectrum or is it better to densify? And our answer in all of those cases was it was cheaper for us to densify than pay the price that was being asked in those secondary market transactions. Now other people might have to make different choices. And in some sense, the fact that they have to make different choices is a reflection of the gap in our spectrum position. And that's the way we've thought of a lot of the conversations that have happened to date. Now let me be also kind of crystal clear on one thing. My intent is not just to defend our spectrum leadership, but to grow it. And the good news is we see several opportunities to do that in the coming years, whether that's other kind of strategic secondary opportunities or whether it's the auctions that will come by. And we feel in a very, very good place to go out and defend and even expand our spectrum lead. But like Mike said, building the world's best network is a lot more than spectrum. And Jon, maybe you can talk a bit about that?
Absolutely. First of all, I'm glad that there's actually not that many questions on the network because I think the network speaks for itself. It is our product. and you can see its impact on customer acquisition and customer retention. So absolutely pleased with where we are. A couple of words on our network leadership. And Srini, you're right that it's more in spectrum. It starts with our cell sites. We have more sites than the competition. And the grid of our sites are actually the denser as well, built like a layered cake with the right technology and with the best getting low band and mid-band spectrum. Now we were also the first to roll out our stand-alone -- 5G stand-alone network and our competition is just now started getting started on it. And with this kind of network, we have launched new capabilities like slicing that is actually powering new services like key priority for first responders and super mobile. We were also first to roll out a 5G advanced network earlier this year. And with that, we have actually unlocked new capabilities ahead of our competition like low latency, application aware, called LFS, better performance and uplink and downlink. It is not surprising at all to us that the latest smartphones released through the market performs best on our network. Like Srini said, 90% faster on iPhone 17 than one of our competitors. And not to leave or Android, the Samsung X25 is more than 100% faster than that same competitor, right? And by the way -- and I think go on and on by one thing, the Apple Watch this year that was released this year actually runs on our 5G advanced network using a new format called 5G rate cap, which is actually, for the first time, 5G optimized for wearables, which means longer battery lives, lower latency and higher throughputs than those LTE watches that is running on our competitors' network. I can go on and on, but Eric and Mike, this is -- we won't stop. And with these assets and these capabilities, we are going to maintain and extend our lead for years to come.
Great. Thanks so much, Jon. Operator, let's actually take our final question from the phone, please.
That will come from Kannan Venkateshwar with Barclays.
Maybe Srini one on the balance sheet and Peter, for you as well. But broadly, when we think about the differences between the different operators right now, one of the biggest advantages you guys have versus your peer is you have massive balance sheet capacity and your peers are now more constrained. So may be useful to get your perspective on how you could leverage that position? I mean, you could obviously drive more aggressive go-to-market strategy using that, but you could also that balance sheet in other ways, like you mentioned, spectrum or fiber or something on the line. So -- would be good to get some perspective on how you view your position from a balance sheet perspective and how you plan to use that?
Thanks, Kannan. Look, we're delighted we have to strengthen the balance sheet. And the way we think about it is strength in balance sheet does not take away our responsibility to be incredibly thoughtful stewards of your capital. So we do have strength in the balance sheet. That doesn't translate into, therefore, let's go do a bunch of things, which don't make sense from a capital allocation perspective. One of the most rigorous processes we follow is how we thoughtfully allocate capital, right? Now you've talked about fiber. We will continue to pursue a capital-light strategy and fiber because it brings us a bunch of other skills that our partners bring to the table. Go-to-market, we will focus that based on what CLVs makes sense, not because we have more balance sheet strength. From a spectrum perspective, we'll again follow the rigorous process of buying spectrum that makes sense from our portfolio perspective, buying spectrum where it passes our test of it's better to buy than to build. So love the balance sheet strength, but let's be clear, we're not going to be any less responsible because we're strong.
I love that. And the other thing that didn't come out in our spectrum discussion is sort of our speculation about the future. I mean, one of the things that has happened this year is that auction authority has been restored to the FCC by Congress, along with a mandate to make a large amount of spectrum available. And spectrum prices as always, will be a function of supply and demand. We see a lot of supply coming. Prices right now in the market are a function of low supply. And a function of a once-in-a-generation sort of existential threat faced by our benchmark competitors at the time of the C-band auction created by T-Mobile that pushed prices to unprecedented levels, and that's where they stay. That will probably change over time. That's our bet. And the difference between us and others is that they might be in a business place where they need to act right now at these elevated prices where we have the ability to be patient and pick our moments on spectrum. And we see those moments coming. So we -- as Srini says, we will not just defend but extend our lead over time. And certainly, entering those with a strong balance sheet is an element of it. And I just love your point that then like now, we will be thoughtful, and we will be great stewards of your capital. So hopefully, that helps.
Thanks, Mike. All right. That's all the time we have today for questions. Mike, before I turn the call back over to you. I'm first going to hand the mic over to Srini for just a couple of brief comments.
I don't know if you guys are watching. If you're watching this and still listening to it, they just brought us all champagnes. Is that because of our quarter. .
Mike, look, I just wanted to say, thank you so much. You've shown us what the Un-carrier spirit truly is like. You've shown us what it is to make board bets. You've shown us the kind of grit that turns kind of ambitious goals into everyday wins. And for me, thank you for everything. Thank you, everything you've done -- for everything you've done to this team. And personally, thank you for being a great friend, thought partner and also just a wonderful human being. And I'm really looking forward to continuing to work with you in our next chapter.
All right. Thanks, thank you guys. Hopefully, over the last hour, what you saw is what I told you a month ago that this company is in great hands. We heard mostly from Srini today that wasn't accidental. We wanted you to hear his voice and his vision for the future. You are going to be an exceptional leader for us and for this company. And of course, you're going to have the benefit of being backed by the best management team in American business. So you guys has been an honor and a privilege of a lifetime to be the CEO, and I look forward to continuing to support this team in my new role. I promise, we don't plan to spend the day running your company day drinking. Thanks for joining the call everybody. Cheers.
Cheers.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the T-Mobile Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a pleasant day.
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T-Mobile US — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
T-Mobile US — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Postpaid-Service-Umsatz: +12% YoY – deutliches Kundenwachstum treibt Serviceumsatz.
- Gesamt-Service-Umsatz: +9% YoY.
- Postpaid ARPA: organisch +3,8% (ARPA = Average Revenue per Account).
- Phone-Nettozugänge: >1 Mio. Postpaid-Phone-Nettozugänge; bestes Q3 in >10 Jahren.
- Broadband & Cash: 5G‑Broadband +500k Net Adds, Fiber >50k; Service‑Revenue→Free‑Cash‑Flow‑Konversion 26%.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Netz & Digital: Priorität auf Ausbau der Netzwerkführung kombiniert mit digitaler Transformation (T‑Life, AI‑gestützte "intent CX") zur nachhaltigen Differenzierung.
- Breitband‑Strategie: FWA (Fallow‑Capacity‑Modell) und gezielter Fiber‑Rollout über kapitalleichte JVs; Fiber‑Homes‑passed‑Ziel kommuniziert (12–15 Mio. Range).
- Kapital & M&A: Disziplinierte Kapitalallokation; UScellular‑Integration als Beschleuniger (Synergien, lokale Netzoptimierung) statt bloßer Bilanzexpansion.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Volumen: Total Postpaid Nettozugänge nun 7,2–7,4 Mio.; Postpaid‑Phone‑Nettozugänge 3,3 Mio.
- Broadband: Fiber‑Kunden‑Nettozugänge ~130k (vorher ~100k).
- Finanzen: Postpaid‑ARPA ≥3,5% (inkl. M&A‑Dilution); Kern‑Adj. EBITDA $33,7–33,9 Mrd. (+$300M midpoint); Cash‑CapEx ≈$10 Mrd.; Adjusted FCF $17,8–18 Mrd.
- M&A‑Effekte: UScellular‑Synergien $1,2 Mrd. (950 OpEx +250 CapEx), vollständige Run‑Rate innerhalb 2 Jahren; ca. $300M Kosten in Q4 sowie ~$160M Cell‑Site‑Decommissioning ausgeschlossen vom Core‑EBITDA.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Netz‑Wahrnehmung: Management will Wahrnehmung lokal steigern (Marketing, Stores, digitale Test‑Trials) plus Kundenzufriedenheit als viralen Hebel; Fokus auf "customer‑driven coverage".
- Breitband‑Economics: FWA als skalierbares, datenintensives Produkt; Fiber selektiv via JVs nur dort, wo Ökonomie stimmt; Ziel: komplementäre Portfolios mit hoher CLV.
- UScellular & Timing: Synergien sollen schneller realisiert werden; Mehrheit der Investitionen/Kosten zur Erreichung der Run‑Rate in 2026, Vollwirkung bis Ende 2027 erwartet.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Starkes Quartal mit erhöhter Guidance und breiter Nachfrage in Wireless und Broadband. Netzwerk‑ und Digitalstrategie liefern skalierbares Wachstum; kurzfristig höhere M&A‑ und Integrationskosten, langfristig stärkere Ertragskraft und Cash‑Generierung — insgesamt positiv für Aktionäre.
T-Mobile US — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to the T-Mobile fireside chat presentation at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology conference. I have the privilege of introducing Mike Sievert, President and CEO; and Srini Gopalan, who is the COO. My name is Mike Ng. I cover telco media cable here at Goldman Sachs. We have about 35 minutes for today's presentation. And before we start, I wanted to highlight the safe harbor slide behind us here, which basically states that some of the statements made today will be forward-looking and will be subject to the risks and uncertainties in the company's SEC filings. So first, thank you so much, Mike. Thank you, Srini, for being here today. It's an absolute privilege to have you on stage here with us.
One of the best conferences of the year. We were just talking off stage. This is one of the only ones that I come to every year without fail. And thanks for having us back.
And we appreciate your support of the conference. It's really wonderful. Mike, to start things off, I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit about the strategic moves that you've made in the last couple of years, U.S. Cellular, Metronet, Lumos you guys are on your way to a fiber footprint totaling 12 million to 15 million homes. Could you just tie that all together for us and talk about how that fits into your overall strategy?
Absolutely. So if you think about all the things that you mentioned, there's a wide variety of things that we're focused on. The common theme here is growth. T-Mobile is the growth leader in this industry and intends to remain that way. And so the priorities you see us pursuing looking backward and looking forward are all about 3 big priorities: near-term growth, medium-term growth, long-term growth, accretive, profitable industry-leading growth. And so look, if you think about just parsing that, the near-term picture is just looking fantastic for us.
As you know, we just finished Q2, just all-time record quarter on almost every metric, postpaid net additions, postpaid phone net additions for Q2. Service revenue growth kind of 3x our benchmark competitors or more. Competitors who are getting credit for growing, some that you've met with this week, getting some credit for growing 3x that rate from T-Mobile. And then, of course, translating all that to cash flow of 26% of service revenue dollars by far and away, the industry leading number by a long shot. We're the only company that has been able to lead in 2 separate categories like wireless and broadband. 13 quarters in a row, the leader in postpaid or postpaid phone net additions and broadband net additions.
And so it really shows you that the strategy of this company is firing on all cylinders in the near term. And so the things that you see us doing are making thoughtful investments like we did years ago that have driven the present success to make sure that, that continues. And if you think about the core business, that's where our focus is. I mean we are pursuing big underpenetrated segments where T-Mobile has a permission to profitably grow and the wherewithal and know-how and embedded investments that allow us to do that. You think about network seekers in the top 100 markets.
I mean, far from defending our castle in the top 100 markets, top 50 markets even double-click into it. We're the market leader and yet we're outgrowing everyone. You think about that for a minute. Why? Because tens of millions of people chose their network years ago in the 4G era thinking it was the best and now there's a new best network, and they're making that switch, huge underpenetrated opportunity for us, network seekers in the top 100 markets.
Smaller markets in rural areas, that 40% of the country that's not the top 100 cities. We're growing in many of those places at twice our market share up 20% or so. And so twice that rate in many of the smaller markets in rural areas is our win share and on average, just a little less than double. And so that's a huge opportunity. You see us making investments in our network, augmenting it, rolling out capabilities and, of course, U.S. Cellular, which further augments both the network picture, the distribution picture, the customer base in those areas. Business, Enterprise and government, this is a huge opportunity for us. Q2, all-time records. We had the quadfecta, we led the industry in Q2 relative to our competitors in postpaid net additions, postpaid phone net additions, broadband net additions and churn. So really great present success, but we're really underpenetrated. And so huge opportunities for us.
And then, of course, all the adjacencies you've seen us investing in that we're investing in because we've got strength and we see an ability to take our know-how and capabilities and outperform financially versus a typical financial investor in areas such as fiber. So it's all about planting the seeds for the future while realizing present success with all-time record results. And a lot of those circumstances that drove just that blockbuster Q2, we've seen just roll right into Q3 as well. So we're seeing a great performance in the marketplace, as we indicated in our earnings release as well as some recent update to guidance that show that Q3 is just on track to be another, we can say now with 2 months down, another great quarter for T-Mobile.
It's a fantastic overview. Srini, turning to you, you have a wealth of industry experience and knowledge and global experience at that, could you just talk a little bit about how you view T-Mobile in the context of your unique global perspective?
Sure. Thanks, Mike. Look, this is going to sound strange in the context of all the performance we've delivered to date, right? Just the whole Un-carrier story and everything that's happened to date. But I'm convinced that the best lies ahead, right? And through all of the markets I've been through, and the reason for that conviction is when I look back at the storied history of the Un-carrier, right, we competed on the back of value, we competed on the back of an incredible culture. We competed on the back of real hunger to win.
But we also competed with kind of 2 hands tied behind our back, right? We were #4 or 4 networks for the vast majority of this. And to Mike's earlier point, the size of the opportunity with network seekers is mind blowing. We think there's at least 70 million customers who choose Verizon or AT&T for being the best network and paid a premium for it. That entire opportunity is open to us. And the thing that gets me most excited as we look forward to the future is in all of the telco markets have been in, I've never really seen a unicorn like we are, right?
Because this position of best network and best value, both at the same point in time, right? For me, is kind of the core of the Un-carrier story, being able to smash through false trade-offs that you present customers with. So really excited about where we are and the fact that we've gotten here and still have so much opportunity in front of us just with the network seeker piece. The other part of the story for me is for most of our story's history, our IT and digital capabilities haven't been best-in-class. Now you look at that today, 75 million downloads of T-Life, right? More than 2/3 of our upgrades done with T-Life. What does that whole area fascinate me and believe -- where does my belief that there's a lot of growth there come from?
If you look at what we do to customers in our industry today, right, in many ways, the processes and the technology are 20 years old, right? And what we're able to do with digital and AI to take away those pain points to make the whole process of, let's say, switching easier, right? And there's a lot more people who'd want to switch to T-Mobile. We just need to make it easy for them to do that. But what this step does and what the digital journey does for us is best value, best network, best experience. And that is the true unicorn. So as I look forward, that's the stuff that really excites me and why...
Srini, you reminded me that this IT thing, this digital thing. I've been doing this for 35 years, and I can tell you that I have never been in a position like I am right now, for the first time ever, where you can kind of look at yourself in the mirror and say, "I got 99 problems, but IT ain't one of them." I mean like that like how many people -- how many CEOs kind of have the privilege of coming to work saying, "You know what, I think we might be the global leaders here."
And we have quietly built this capability to enable a dramatic digital transformation around data, AI, digital over the last few years. So we're not so quietly. We rolled it out pretty loudly at our Investor Day last year. But we're making enormous progress. I think for Srini and I to be sitting here with all of this present success, which is just outsized all-time records at T-Mobile and say, our best days are actually the ones that are ahead, that's probably the principal reason.
And there's still a network perception gap because consumers haven't fully recognized all the network investments and improvements you guys have made and digital should take a lot of friction out of this.
It's not just consumers, right? It's also large businesses. It's government, right? That phenomenon is there everywhere.
Yes. Mike, we get a lot of questions around succession planning. You've been in the industry for 35 years. You've overseen the company for more than the last 5, including the very successful integration of Sprint, which has led to and supported a lot of the industry market share gains. When you think about leadership and the next leg of growth at T-Mobile. What are some of the things that are top of mind for you?
Yes. I mean you're getting that succession planning and all that, that's such a flight way of putting it. Yes, there have been lots of discussion. And I mean, thanks for asking me about it. I take it as a compliment that our company is so transparent about these things that you feel comfortable talking about it, and I feel comfortable talking about and I think that's a less than other companies should take note of. We have been, I think, very transparent all year that Srini, for example, came here as part of our succession planning process.
And I'm going to come back to that. But I think also, I've been -- my approach as CEO all along and my predecessors approach has been to showcase this bench the entire time. Have you ever noticed how every 1 of our earnings -- we bring the whole management team, conferences like this. It's not just the 2 of us. We have Mike Katz, our President here with us as well. We bring the team who lead this company because I never want to investors to have any worry that the secret sauce of this Un-carrier outperformance is at risk and it's held by this team. We finish each other's sentences, we're unconfused about what's important, and yes, we challenge each other all the time. And we do a lot of that right in front of our owners. So they can see how we think and operate.
And that way, for me, when I brought Srini in and announced he was joining us at the beginning of this year, but that was a combination of a kind of a years long effort. We've been friends and coworkers for many years. I made it very clear that, that was as a part of a succession planning process. And I think that's a lesson other companies should take. I benefited -- I followed an iconic leader years ago, 6 years ago when the company announced I would be CEO. I was stepping into the shoes of somebody who is very famous and effective and Wall Street looked at it and said, "Yes, that makes sense. Good on you guys." And sort of we all moved on.
And that is what great succession planning looks like. I think John showed a great path for that, and I'm trying to do the same thing. Now we're not here to make any predictions worry about exactly how and when it will all unfold or where we'll land. But that's been my philosophy, the whole time. And Srini and I kind of run this company together. He's got 90% of the employees of this company. And you can see the results that we're delivering over the last couple of quarters, if there's any question about whether or not this guy gets the Un-carrier.
Great. Thank you for that. Let's talk about the consumer wireless business. I mean, it's been a tremendous amount of focus for the market. I think a lot of people have observed a higher level of competitive intensity, at least at the beginning of the year, reportedly. We've seen strong gross adds but also strong or higher churn. Could you just unpack for us what's actually happening in consumer wireless right now?
Maybe we'll both jump in. I'll start. I mean look, we're really comfortable with the nature of competition right now. And that may be different from what you're hearing from others. I can't speak for them. It may feel hotter in the kitchen for them. We're really comfortable. Our Q2 results were during a time of competition that's just like what we're seeing now. You saw our outsized performance then. Not a lot has changed since then. And one of the things that I want to underscore is that the value we're creating from customer acquisition is right in line with our historical norms.
And that might surprise some people because they're like, "Man, you're paying a lot for those gross adds." I'm like right, but the gross adds are more valuable as well. And you see that Q2, our ARPUs rose by 5%. I mean, that's a lot. And so the overall customer lifetime values are in line with historical norms, while we're delivering outsized growth and simultaneously delivering cash production from service revenue dollars that lead the industry by a long mile so we're really comfortable with it. And there's a reason for that. I mean, customers kind of find their way to the truth.
And as Srini talked about a minute ago, we've got the best value. I mean customers can switch to T-Mobile and save 20% and get treated by a company that doesn't seem to resent them. And when you factor in all the benefits and privileges of being a member at T-Mobile, and increasingly, they're waking up for the fact that we've got the best network was never true before. It has been true for 2 or 3 years. And finally, now this year, you see at scale people starting to kind of figure that out. And so that just gives lots of tailwinds.
The point Mike was making, right? We can get lost on the froth. What promotion is someone running? What's the latest iPhone offer, et cetera, et cetera. The reality is there's a broader underlying secular trend, which is us winning more share. And when you have the best network, best experience and best value, what is the fair share? Right? And all you're seeing is that secular trend play out, right? Now on top of that, there's froth, we manage that froth with kind of real rigor, making sure that our CLVs grow and the rest of it. I mean testament to this fact is when we did the U.S. Cellular announcement, right, we actually are underlying nets, we took them up because we kind of integrated U.S. Cellular. If you just look at their Q2, 112 basis points churn, negative 40,000 nets.
Despite that, right? We stayed without original guide, which means the underlying business is actually performing even stronger. And while we manage kind of the promotion cycle and everything around it very rigorously, it doesn't escape us that there's an underlying secular trend of move -- of people being tired of the trade-offs that they have to face between network and value and moving to a place where that trade-off doesn't exist.
One thing that's going well is that switching is a little more vibrant in the market this year. If you look at Q2, churn was up across the market a little bit. Not the kind of thing you want to see up a lot. But when it's up on the margin, our sequential and year-over-year churn comps were the best in the industry. So our relative performance versus our norms was the best there was in Q2 but they were all a little bit elevated versus year ago levels. What's that mean? What that means is more people are switching and when you're winning a disproportionate share of the switching and doing it economically, as we just explained, we're doing, well, that's great for us.
And so you see that flowing through to our financials and the improvements to the guide that we've been making and we always are a little thoughtful about guide and maybe it trails what we're seeing. So you can hope that things sort of continue to unfold in a really good manner, and hopefully you're getting that sense from us today. We're very comfortable with where things are.
Right. If you are net share gainer, you should be happy about jump balls.
Yes, more jump balls is a good thing.
Yes. This week, Apple announced its new iPhone. So maybe we can talk a little bit about that. What's been driving some of this higher switcher pool, higher upgrade activity? Is some of it related to tariffs and the pull forward of smartphone upgrade demand into the first half of the year. What are the implications of the new iPhone launch? And what are your observations around the promotion supporting the iPhone 17?
Personally, I've been waiting for this week with bated breath. And the reason for that is that I have a cracked screen, so I just can't wait for, I don't want to buy the old one. So -- but Srini, you were actually there yesterday. Maybe you can talk about your observations.
Look, I think big picture first, right? Whether this is a super cycle or not, there's lots of speculation to that. The reality is we like it both ways. If there is a super cycle, great, there's more churn, there's more movement, and that's good for us. If there isn't that flows to EBITDA, that gives us more cash to invest in the short term. So we like it both ways, and that's 1 of the joys of being the Unicorn. Specifically on this iPhone, what we love about it is so much of the capabilities of that iPhone depend on you having a nationwide 5G SA network, right?
That allows us to do multiple carrier aggregation, which lands up, meaning that the iPhone on T-Mobile is up to 35% faster quicker than it is anywhere else, right? And that's because of the thoughtful approach we've taken to rolling out 5G SA because we have that back in 2020. There's other people completing their rollout of 5G SA end of this year, right? So that network lead the better the device, the more the network lead plays out. And as always, we're committed to our value position, which is why when you look at the promotions, we were competitive there. We'll make sure that value stays with us.
I think we're going to see a decent amount of jump balls with this cycle. People have had their 5G phones for a while now. You saw those penetration numbers, not just from us, but for our competitors as well, 3 years ago. So it seems like time on that front. And I think people are kind of excited about these camera capabilities. The physical form factors are a little different. And this is kind of sound crazy, but it kind of matters that if you're going to spend all that money on a phone, if you whip it out and throw it on the table like your friends can notice, it looks a little different than last year.
Looks very -- so all these things kind of add up, whether it's the capabilities, the network connectivity and power, the processing power, the unbelievable improvements in both durability and camera capabilities and many other innovations. Not to mention the air, which blew everybody's mind. So we'll see what -- is it a super cycle. It doesn't matter to us like we don't no. We're not good at predicting that. But we do think that there'll be a lot of jump balls this fall, and we think we are -- it's happening at a time when we are firing on all cylinders.
Cosmic orange that's the one you want...
Yes, the cosmic orange. I like that actually.
Srini, I was wondering if I could ask about the U.S. Cellular acquisition. What should investors be mindful of as you think about the integration of that and how that compares to Sprint?
First up, the U.S. Cellular acquisition is a lot simpler than Sprint. You don't have the CDMA device issue and the rest of it. For us, it's a really exciting, huge opportunity because you come to this piece of best network, best value, right? Now we're getting 47 megahertz of spectrum for 37 million POP. And this is our chance and I was at Oklahoma City with our team there. They're unbelievably excited because they can go out and claim best network in another part of America, right? When you think about our SMRA markets, U.S. Cellular plays directly into that, right?
So we're really, really excited by taking the story out further. And that's why you saw our -- we moved up from $1 billion to $1.2 billion, and 3 to 4 years became 2 years, right? And a lot of that is because of everything we learned during Sprint. Things like the AMC, how we integrate networks, the MOCN and the Reverse MOCN as well as the streaming billing migration, which is unique. I've never seen it in another telco which allows us to integrate assets like this really quickly and get the biggest synergies quicker.
Right. Great. Mike, the business market has been a key focus of yours over the last several years. To your point, you still remain underpenetrated. Can you talk a little bit about the opportunity there? And also, maybe make some remarks about the MVNO that you have with the cable providers and why that makes sense for you?
Absolutely. I was going to resist the urge to repeat my comments about the all-time record performance in Q2, but I won't. So the business -- and the reason is I want people to understand the business is just firing on all cylinders. We are realizing industry-leading and record for ourselves, success on things like net additions, postpaid net additions, phone net additions, churn, even broadband net additions. It's really going well. The value creation, the CLVs are right where we want them. And at the same time, and I talked about this very briefly, I think, in our earnings report. One of the dynamics is that it's -- the growth and success is a little bit of barbell shaped.
And so you see our best success has come historically from the very small businesses where the go-to-market kind of emulates consumer. They're largely served through our consumer like channels, retail and others and enterprise and government, where it's a more finite market, meaning literally, there's a few thousand people you have to convince to compete effectively in that market and we are competing highly effectively in enterprise and government. In between is this vastness of sort of SMB where we're doing fine, but there's lots of upside.
And so it just felt super complementary to us because that's where their strength is, that's where their go-to-market strength, their brand strength, their business strength is in kind of SMB. So it allows us to have what we hope will ultimately be highly effective go-to-market approaches for all of the major segments.
Great. Srini on broadband, the company has a target for 12 million fixed wireless access subscribers by 2028, 12 million to 15 million fiber homes passed by the end of the decade. How does broadband fit into the broader strategy? The company has been emphasizing convergence a little bit less than some of its peers. So I would just love your thoughts on all that.
So let me start with convergence, right? I just like the word because it's just a really fancy term for bundling, right? Ultimately, what we call convergence is a very specific bundle of wireless being attached to wireline, right? Now our thesis on convergence is different from some of our competitors, and there are good reasons for that, right? But before I get to the thesis, you've just got to look at the numbers first, right? For the last 5 years, 85% of Americas have the option of bundling wireless into their wireline. And as Mike said, and yet our growth continues, not just continuous but accelerates I mean we had our best Q2 ever, overall postpaid and postpaid phone, right? That just tells you that there's always going to be a segment that wants to do that bundle, but that's of the margins. And our position of the unicorn more than outweighs all of those effects, right?
But just that -- it's in the run rate and in the run rate we're accelerating. When you come to the hypothesis on a lot of investors asked me this question, which is -- why is -- will the U.S. become like Europe right? And before we get into that, I mean, a lot of the European problems have to do with excess capacity in mobility rather than convergence or bundling of wireless with wireline, right? I think there's 3 big differences. Number one, it's a myth to believe that bundling wireless along with wireline is the largest purchase form in Europe in big markets like Germany or the U.K. right? The levels of bundling wireless along with wireline are not fundamentally different from the U.S. Second, I'd argue the U.S. is the most bundled wireless market in the world. Because of family plans. I mean the typical account has 3 postpaid phones attached to it.
Yes. And device plans.
And device plans. And then so you have 2 bundles, an EIP bundle and a family bundle. And thirdly, 1 of the big drivers to this whole bundling of wireless with wireline in Europe was that wireline churn was 70 bps. Wireless churn was 110 bps. What you were trying to do is bring them together, right? Now the reverse is true of the U.S. You're looking at even with fiber 130 bps of churn and wireless even the recent quarters, 90 bps so you look at all of that and go, this form of bundling is going to exist at the margin, but there are other forms of bundling, which are going to be much bigger scale, right? And I also understand why some -- if you're overbuilding existing copper with fiber, and you need to kind of justify that. I've been there in Germany, right? It's really hard to justify it purely based on the incremental ARPU of that move. So you've got to talk up a bunch of other stuff, right, to make economic sense of that move.
So why do we point out all these things? I mean it's not to explain that we're not ambitious in that space. I mean, far from it, we'll come back to that. I mean we're the growth leaders in this industry, broadband. We're very ambitious in this space. it's the why. It's to make sure no one's confused about why we're doing it. We don't believe that our leadership in broadband, which we expect to persist for quite some time is for any reason other than that it's a great business, it is not to defend our wireless business. We don't believe it's necessary to defend our wireless business for all the reasons that Srini just very well articulated.
This is a business we just think we can deliver a fantastic product and delight customers, which is our mission, and derive a return that outpaces purely disinterested financial investors by virtue of our capabilities, know-how and embedded investments. And you see that in our results. We're the only company that's ever led and have been leading for 13 quarters in growth in both broadband overall and wireless overall. And I think 1 of the reasons you see that is that fixed wireless, which is our largest segment, although we're very interested in fiber and you see us making some cool moves in fiber.
Fixed wireless is here to stay. And it is nowhere near its terminal penetration. We have lots of room to run. And 1 of the things that people need to keep in mind is that the technology is not standing still. So if you want to drag right and predict the terminal penetration of fixed wireless, don't drag right today's wireless capabilities, make sure you factor what's coming with 5G advanced and 6G and beyond.
And 1 of the -- I mean 1 of the things we love about the broadband market is this team loves going after markets where you have a large incumbent with an inflated back book and an inferior product, right? And taking that on with both FWA and fiber, gives us lots of runway. It kind of plays into what we're very, very good at doing.
Great. When you think about the 12 million to 15 million fiber homes pass goal, like what's the right terminal penetration? How are you thinking about the balancing of subscribers and revenues.
So if you look at the way we thought about fiber, right, there's a set of strengths that we bring, those are our brand, distribution, right, just our capability to think about how we price the stuff rather than getting into creating win-wins for customers and us, right, and great distribution with a great brand. Those will all naturally drive us, we believe, to higher penetration. However, as ever, we're prudent about the way we think about our IRRs and how none of our IRR calcs, are based on anything other than a typical terminal penetration across the market, right? And we really like those JVs because while we've been bringing these strengths, we also have humility. We understand we're not the best guys to be digging fiber to be doing the truck roll, right? We have partners like Metronet and KKR and EQT, who know this business really well. And we believe that brings together the best of both worlds.
Yes. I'd love to expand on Mike's comments earlier around making sure we acknowledge that there's going to be technological innovation and fixed wireless access as we think about capacity. Could you just talk a little bit more about the supply-demand dynamics within fixed wireless? Is this something that you'll have to invest directly in? What do the returns look like for that?
Jump in.
So we've historically talked about this as -- so firstly, if you think of the fixed wireless product, right, it is -- it blows my mind what we've achieved. We've gone from 3-point -- just in 2 years. We've gone from 3.7 million customers to 7.3 million customers. Each customer now uses 25% more data, a staggering 561 gigs. Despite all that, our average download speed has gone up by 50%. And when you talk about an ultra-capacity network and a network that's kind of got a lot of room to go, that just dimensions it. Our center of gravity has been the fallow capacity model, which is we first make sure we prudently project our growth in mobile at a x -- kind of 165 meters by 165 meters level and look at what capacity is left over and use that to drive fixed wireless access.
And that's the way we still think about this from a return on capital. That's the most efficient way. Are we exploring other models? Yes. And there may be other people who, given their spectrum holdings need to go to less efficient models earlier or we'll see how that plays out. Right now, we think there's a lot of room to run on our fallow capacity model, and that's what we're pushing hard on.
And if you look at our wait list now, we've got over 1 million customers on the waitlist which tells you the power of the product. I mean we have NPS, which is like 30 points higher than cable.
Yes. And Srini, just going on to capital allocation. You guys obviously have the M&A deals, you're investing in the network, you're investing in fiber, you got buybacks and dividends. How are you balancing accelerating fiber passings versus everything else?
We -- this is 1 of the things that we really debate, work through. We're conscious that we're kind of deploying your money and we take great pride, but also great caution and due diligence before we do that. Our foundational principle is we start with our leverage versus EBITDA. We think 2.5% is the right number. It's been at that number. And given the environment today, we still think it's the right number. We then have the operating free cash flow. And our first priority is to look at the attractive business opportunities, right? And those could be spectrum. We look at that very rigorously.
Those could be fiber investments. And then shareholder remuneration for us is the consequence of having made those trade-offs. Once we've looked at everything that we think is really, truly accretive to the business, right? And that's the same approach we followed for a long time. That's what we'll continue doing.
Great. Mike, maybe in the last couple of minutes that we have here, I was wondering if you could just tie it all together for us and talk a little bit about your near-term to midterm strategic priorities, things that investors should take away from this conversation today?
Well, we can pick right up on this capital allocation because we're at this moment, and it's just we've worked so hard to get here to where you've got a business that's present success is firing on all cylinders. The cash production from it is enormous. We've outlooked what that looks like over the next several years. It's tremendously exciting. And that just gives us fantastic optionality. And the first piece is to remember that the core of the business that we are running is extremely successful and highly profitable and just filled with opportunities. We talked about them at the beginning of this session. There's just so many places where we have room to run with a strategy that's highly proven and very profitable.
And so as you think about our investments, as Srini is saying, we first chase all of those because our core business is a fantastic business, and we're nowhere near the end of the runway for all the great accretive growth opportunities. Second, it's all these adjacencies. We're very excited about fiber. We've shown our hand that we prefer the growing part of fiber. We prefer pure play. We have a simple business model. We want to be a disruptor, an innovator, a fast-moving company and there is more opportunity there. So we want to be thoughtful about that. And then other adjacencies and finally, shareholder return.
And at this leverage of 2.5%, remember, that's on a rapidly rising EBITDA. And so it's 2.5% of a rapid -- 2.5x rather, of a rapidly rising EBITDA, which means that even while holding leverage flat, the nominal amount of dollars available to us are rising rapidly because that's an envelope that's growing, but so our cash flows. And that's a very good place to be. So I bring it back to where Srini started it in our session, which is as we sit here today and look at the next several years, despite the historic success, which is off the charts, the 2 of us have never been more excited about what's ahead.
Mike, Srini, it's just been such a pleasure and privilege to have you on stage here with us. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Cheers.
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T-Mobile US — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
T-Mobile US — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Wachstumsführung: Management betont T‑Mobile als Branchenwachstumsführer: All‑time‑Records in Q2, Q3 "on track" nach ersten zwei Monaten und 13 Quartale Marktführerschaft bei Net Additions.
- Bilanzen & Cash: Starke Cash‑Produktion (Management nennt ~26% des Service‑Umsatzes), konservative Hebel‑Zielsetzung bei 2,5x Net‑Debt/EBITDA zur Kapitalallokation.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Netz & Kunden: Fokus auf "network seekers" (Management nennt ~70 Mio. adressierbare Kunden), Outperformance in Top‑ und ländlichen Märkten.
- Digitalisierung: T‑Life: ~75 Mio. Downloads, >2/3 Upgrades über App — digitale Prozesse sollen Wechselbarrieren senken.
- Broadband & Fiber: FWA von 3,7→7,3 Mio. Kunden, Durchschnitts‑Traffic ~561 GB, >1 Mio. auf Warteliste; Fiber‑Ziel 12–15 Mio. Haushalte bis Ende Dekade, viele JV‑Partnerschaften.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- U.S. Cellular: Synergien angehoben von $1,0Mrd→$1,2Mrd; Realisierungszeitraum verkürzt (vorher 3–4 Jahre, jetzt ~2 Jahre) dank Erfahrungen aus Sprint‑Integration und technischen MOCN/Lösungen.
- Guidance‑Update: Management signalisiert Verbesserung/Gefühl für Q3, liefert aber keine detaillierten neue Finanzkennzahlen im Chat.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Nachfolgeplanung: Srini Gopalan als Teil des Succession‑Plans, Betonung einer breiten Management‑Bench zur Risikoabsicherung.
- Konkurrenz & Churn: Wettbewerb intensiver, aber T‑Mobile sieht ARPU‑Anstieg (+5% in Q2) und ökonomisch wertvolle Gross Adds; Churn leicht erhöht, aber relativ stark im Vergleich.
- iPhone & 5G: Neues iPhone begünstigt Wechsel — T‑Mobile hebt 5G SA‑Vorteil hervor (bis zu ~35% schnellere Erfahrung auf ihren Netzen).
📌 Bottom Line
T‑Mobile präsentiert sich als wachstumsstarke, cash‑starke Plattform mit klarem Fokus auf Netzvorteil, Digital‑Automatisierung und selektiven Fiber‑Investments. U.S. Cellular beschleunigt regionale Expansion; Beobachten: Integrationsausführung, Promotion‑getriebene Churn‑Dynamik und Kapitalallokation zwischen Fiber, Spectrum und Rückkäufen.
T-Mobile US — Citi’s 2025 Global Technology
1. Question Answer
Welcome back to Citi's 2025 Global TMT Conference. For those of you I haven't met, I'm Mike Rollins, and I cover communication services and infrastructure for Citi.
Disclosures are available at the back of the room. And if you don't have access or would like another copy, please e-mail me at [email protected].
We're also pleased to welcome Srini Gopalan, Chief Operating Officer of T-Mobile. Srini, thank you so much for joining us today.
Thank you for having me.
So It's great to have you here. And just maybe thinking back since you've joined the executive management team from the Board, can you give us a sense of what you've been focused on for T-Mobile?
Sure. Look, I've known this team for years now, right? And it's incredible what we as a company have built. And the center of this is kind of this totally restless hunger to smash through customer problems, which is the heart of the Un-carrier story. And it's been spectacular over the last 12, 13 years, right? But as we stand here right now, right, there's even more opportunity.
And the future, as I look at it, is even brighter than the storied history of the Un-carrier. And that's a strange thing to say, given everything we've achieved, right? The heart of my belief in that comes from the fact that over the storied history of the Un-carrier, if we're honest about it, we've kind of played this game with 1, maybe 2 hands tied behind our back, right? For most of this journey, we've been #4 or 4 as a network.
Our IT and digital capabilities, well, you should talk to our frontline about them, right? We've delivered everything we have despite those 2 things. And here we are today as the best network in the U.S. That opens out all kinds of possibilities. And similarly, on the digital front, we've made enormous progress. 75 million customers have downloaded T-Life, right? So we're at a place where I look at this and go, we've got an incredible culture, this whole DNA of working back from how we smash customer problems.
We've got a history of not just saying it, but making it happen. And now we've got the best network and incredible digital skills. So bringing all of that together and driving forward is what gets me really excited about the future.
And so you're touching on this that there's more growth opportunity in front of you. What do you think the market is underappreciating about the opportunities of what T-Mobile can pursue to extend that momentum of revenue growth, expanding margins and the free cash flow conversion?
The heart of it for me is the gap between network reality and network perception, right? We're clearly by any of the tests, any of the metrics, the best network in the country today. But millions of Americans in the 4G era made a choice to choose based on the best network, and we weren't the best network then, right? We think something like 70 million AT&T and Verizon customers made a choice to pay a premium for having the best network, right?
Now that we have the best network, the reality is we've destroyed that false trade-off, right, which is the heart of being an Un-carrier, right? Those trade-offs shouldn't exist. You shouldn't have to choose between network and value and now you don't. And even as we've gotten here, right, and we've seen the results of that, our SMRA shares have gone from 13% to 20%, but that's still 20%. There's a lot of runway still left.
We look at the switcher pool and only 20% of switchers think we have the best network, right? The gap between perception and reality is huge. And what we've seen is that gap has closed for our existing customers, which is great because word of mouth, they're beginning to talk to friends and family about who the best network is, but still hasn't changed meaningfully enough for prospects. And it's not just kind of consumer prospects.
When we look at enterprise and government, 10%, 20% share that at most depending on the subsegment we look at, huge opportunity for growth there. The good news there is these folks take their network seriously. So it's not just about perception. It's also them going out and testing it. And when they go test it like New York City did, they chose us for their first responders, which is kind of the most critical force.
So that, to me, I could talk for a while about this, but that's the thing that gets me most excited, right? The difference between where we are from a reality and perception perspective. That, of course, means commitment to market here and focus on the network, but it also means making the broader switching process easier because the reality is a lot of people kind of probably already know that, that trade-off between value and network is something they don't need to make any longer. But there's inertia. And so we're looking at this through multiple lenses.
How do we get the entire company motivated around this being the best network. It's -- and when you talk to people in the front line, right, they'll tell you stories of how 15 years ago, when we weren't the best network, they love selling the brand, but they'd always be worried. Now they're not. Now they know when they recommend that brand, we deliver on it. So this is kind of a multipronged focus on bridging that gap because that's where I see the payoff being highest.
And it feels like that this is something that as a company, T-Mobile has been thinking about for some time. Is there kind of a timing or steps that investors should be mindful of when they might see the next incremental legs of progress for T-Mobile on this?
So we launched our first big network campaign, and we made our big announcement once the results came in of the largest crowd source test, right? Now one of the reasons we've been thoughtful about timing about this is, one, we wanted to be absolutely sure that, that was a claim that we could stand by partly with consumers, but also with our frontline, right?
And the second piece is we wanted to be in a place where we could say this not just today, but for the next 2 years. And in 2 years from now, we can say we're still 2 years ahead. Why do we think we're at that point? Because ultimately, a mobile network is fairly straightforward, right? It's -- how many towers do you have? What spectrum do you have? And how good is your core network? We have more towers. We have more and better quality spectrum because we have the lowest spectrum in each band.
And core network, we rolled out our 5G stand-alone in 2020. I mean our competitors are talking about completing their rollout in 2025. So you put all of that together, and we felt really good that we are the sustainable network leader. And it's time we screened about it. It's time we were proud about it. And it's time, most importantly, that we liberated consumers from this false trade-off that they were having to deal with.
Now maybe a couple more on strategy. So T-Mobile has a different philosophy, it seems on converged services, different from your competitors that are pushing the narrative on convergence and bundling. How does T-Mobile look at this differently?
Okay. So where do I start here? All right. So I've spent the last 8 years working in so-called converged markets prior to coming here, right? Now first off, I think convergence is just a fancy name for bundling. It just sounds better, right? Now ultimately, what you're talking about is bundling wireless along with wireline services.
The reality is 85% of Americas had that option for the last 5 years, right? Let's look at what's happened over the last 5 years. There's clearly been one brand, which has been the lead in share taking and by any metric you measure growth. Right? Now why do we think that's so? And often the question I get asked is, why is bundling, most people call it -- still call it convergence. Why is what's happened in Europe not going to happen in the U.S., right? So 3 perspectives on that.
Number one, it hasn't happened in Europe. It's happened in some markets, but let's take 2 of the largest markets, Germany and the U.K. The level of bundling of wireless along with wireline is not very different from what we're seeing here, right? We're not saying this is a 0, 1. We're saying at the margin, some segments will do this.
Secondly, when you think of it as bundling, the United States is the most bundled wireless market in the world because of family plans. I mean each of our accounts has an average of 3 phone lines, right? That creates stickiness by itself. It is the most bundled market in the world, right? Will some people choose to bundle wireline along with it? Yes, sure. Is that structurally going to change this market? We're not compelled by that argument.
And probably lastly, a lot of the economic strength of bundling wireless with wireline in Europe came from the differential in churn. So wireline churn, Europe, 70, 80 basis points. Wireless churn, 100, right? The U.S. is actually the other way around, right? Wireless churn, 90 bps; wireline, 130 even on fiber, right? So this idea of somehow we're going to get this disproportional churn benefit is unclear to me and therefore, the economic firepower.
I get why some of our competitors will talk about convergence. Look, I've been in an incumbent. If you're overbuilding copper with fiber and it costs a lot of CapEx and what you get is the incremental ARPU, you've got to find another angle.
So when you look at the fiber footprint today, it's approaching maybe 10% of the U.S. in terms of passings opportunities. I think that's like by 2030. What are the circumstances under which you try to make that significantly larger, whether you do it on a direct basis, build or own assets, partner or resell. Do you look to try to find a resell partner to try to get more access to it?
So let's pull back for a minute, right? I don't feel the need to be in broadband to defend my wireless base, right? I really like the U.S. broadband market because it plays to our DNA. Our DNA is pick big consumer pain points, ideally have an incumbent who's overpriced, trying to defend their back book and go in and smash through that. That's -- I could have described the broadband market in many ways, right, given cable and DSL is the heart of that market. So we like that market structurally.
We're going to go at it, and we have been going at it hard through 2 routes: FWA and fiber, right? FWA, we've talked about 12 million customers. Just to be clear, if I was talking in fiber terms, I'd probably triple that number, right? Because that would be -- I could claim 35 million to 40 million homes fast, right? Fiber separately, we see as an equity and value-accretive opportunity, especially when we can get a few things right, right?
When we're first to fiber or near first to fiber, when we can use our brand and distribution to drive higher penetration. And we're also incredibly humble when we enter these new businesses. We're not going to be the world's expert at kind of trenching and laying out fiber. We found great partners like Metronet and Lumos, who are the best builders in this business.
Metronet is the largest scale pure-play fiber builder and partners like EQT and KKR, who understand this business incredibly well, right? That's why we've gone into the JV structure with these folks. It also helps from a capital efficiency perspective, right? Now will be wholesale? We're actually already reselling.
The core of our business will scale using the JVs. Do I have a target number in mind in terms of homes passed? That's not how we think about this business. Right? Do I believe we're already at substantial scale, 12 million to 15 million plus the 12 million FWA customers. Are we looking at other opportunities? Yes, if they kind of pass through this whole lens of first to fiber, near first to fiber, a business where we can put our brand and distribution to use and good partners.
Very helpful. Maybe digging into the mobility business. You put out a release earlier today. You maintained the postpaid phone net add guidance, but you're absorbing a business that's losing phone subs. Can you talk us through what's happening in this business and helping the organic side of the outlook?
So let me paint the big picture first, right? Look, I think there's a secular trend, which is we're winning switches. Why do we have that secular trend? Because I've worked in a few telco markets. In many ways, we're a unicorn, right? We -- combining best network and best value is something I have never seen at the scale, right? And what we're seeing is a secular movement of switchers towards us. Our win share in switching has gone up through time.
Now in that context, we're seeing some of those same trends play out as we think about Q3. You saw our Q2, Q3 has been strong. And we're in a place where we're really positive about the overall secular trend, but also our immediate performance, which is what gives us the confidence to kind of reiterate our guidance despite absorbing a business, which I think last quarter had 112 bps churn, lost 40,000 to 50,000. So that tells you that our underlying business is performing really, really strongly.
And within that context, last quarter, you delivered a very efficient quarter with better phone net adds on lower churn than what was expected. When you look at the performance this quarter, what are you seeing from the switcher pool? And does the upside more of a function of gross adds or churn? Just maybe a little context of what you're seeing out of the marketplace.
A couple of things, right? I think, one, we have seen over the year a very active switcher pool. We love that, right, because there are more jump balls. And when you've got the best network at best value, you like more switching behavior happening. I still say despite all of that, 99% of Americans don't switch in a month. Right? And you've got -- there's a question of what is your fair share, right? If you've got best network and best value, what is your fair share, right? So we like the switching activity. We've done really well from the switching activity.
And as I said, on nets, we're really happy with progress so much so that we've reiterated our guidance after having absorbed the impact of U.S. Cellular.
Maybe turning to ARPU. ARPU was also strong in the second quarter and first half of the year. What are you seeing in terms of the drivers to the ARPU? And how do you look at the sustainability of expanding the ARPU?
So can I just start with, I dislike ARPU generally as -- I can see the users, but it's not my favorite KPI because it's kind of -- it does weird stuff, right? So if I add a line, right, which is CLV accretive, but at lower than the first-line ARPU, I have ARPU dilution, right? The way we think about this business is ARPA because our fundamental metric is account growth, right? Everything else lands up being a derivative of it.
That's true quality growth that you're seeing, right? And so I'll try and answer the ARPA question rather than the ARPU question, right? So from an ARPA perspective, how do we think about this philosophically, right? You think of 3 drivers and therefore, sustainability wise, Think of 3 drivers to ARPA growth.
Number one, kind of selling up the rate cut. And we talked about this in our Q2 call. Right? We're seeing really real strength in that. We're seeing kind of twice the number or twice the percentage of kind of premium plans on our new acquisitions as we do in our base when we kind of add our top 2 tiers, experience more and experience beyond. That is, therefore, going to drive accretion to ARPU, right -- sorry, to ARPA.
Second, as we expand our relationship beyond the smartphone, as we add FWA, as we add things like watches, things like tablets, et cetera, et cetera, that relationship grows. And obviously, as we penetrate deeper into the household with more lines, that relationship becomes more valuable.
The third piece, which is kind of rate plan optimization. Now we did that last year at points in time. We're extremely careful about doing that. We kind of test our way into it. We'll do it for selected legacy plans, and it will be a portion of our ARPA growth. But we'd like 1 and 2 to be greater than 3. And that's kind of why we think our growth is sustainable, right? And part of kind of that is also the zeal with which we want to guard our best value position because best value and best network is unbeatable as a combination, right?
And thankfully, we don't have some of the incumbent issues you have with front book and back book, right? Because if you're an incumbent, you have this issue of your front book being cheaper than your back book, you need to fund that acquisition cost. So you jack up back book prices, then it becomes even worse because churn starts kicking in, right? We don't have that issue, right? And therefore, we can think about pricing much more from a what is consistent with creating a win-win with customers, right, and therefore, sustainable.
And when we think about just the third piece, the pricing. So of course, focus, as you mentioned, is #1, #2 in terms of that list of 3. But on the repricing side, what was interesting is over the last few months, you have these new premium plans that add the taxes and fees to that. There's other value that you put into the plans. How are those resonating? And is that a tailwind that might be underappreciated as a contributor to service revenue growth over the next 12 months?
Look, as we think about kind of moving people or people selecting up the rate card, obviously, the way we think of this is the bundle as a whole more compelling. I've shared some of those numbers. It clearly is. Right? And that is working. And it's always interesting to me that different people find different things interesting. So I mean people who are like, I love the WiFi on planes, right? My daughter loves having Netflix on us, right? The -- and some people love the international roaming.
T-satellite with our work with Starlink is now a big part of that. So we're -- so all of those come together, right? It's difficult to kind of pass it out. All of that come together to create a compelling package. And we make decisions on things like taxes inclusive versus not when we look at the package as a whole. And in terms of is that working, you can see the results. It clearly is.
What are you expecting in terms of upgrades as we're going to the seasonal device upgrade cycle?
So look, and I'm not being glib. We like upgrades up and we like upgrades down. Right? Upgrades up just means more jump balls. Upgrades up means there's more switching behavior. Upgrades down means it flows through to the bottom line and our already extremely strong cash conversion. And it allows us to reinvest elsewhere on growth, right? So we like it both ways.
And then in terms of the competitive landscape, anything else that you're seeing incrementally in terms of changes from the cable converged promos or some of the acquisition offers that are in the market.
Look, I think it's worth just zooming out for a minute, right? We can talk a lot about kind of it's competitive, it's dynamic, et cetera, et cetera. But let's look at this industry since 2022, right? In the last 3 years, we've seen a 50% growth in free cash flow. Customers have benefited from 3 to 4x more speed and 3 to 4x more data.
What they're paying in real terms has come down. This is a fabulous neighborhood. We like winning in a fabulous neighborhood, right? There's always going to be kind of shifts in the shape of competition, sometimes rate plan focused, sometimes device focused. The key thing for us is CLV, right? And even as we've gotten more into device promos, our CLVs are really strong. So we're feeling good about this on the whole.
And is there another frontier for T-Mobile where you feel like you're underpenetrated and you have a real opportunity to win?
I think the next frontier, I think there are several other frontiers. But the next one and the next hill we're focused on taking is network. Right? And that's because of this whole gap between perception and reality, the spin-off benefit of what that means in terms of really winning share in the network-sensitive segments, not just in SMRA in business and enterprise, but also in cities like New York, where we have high shares. But again, we have a huge opportunity with network seekers.
And just maybe on the SMRA side of the equation, with the acquisition and integration of UScellular, can you talk about accelerating the timetable for synergies and opportunity and how that kind of fits into the overall SMRA strategy?
Yes. Look, UScellular has benefited enormously. Our integration with them has benefited enormously from the work we did with Sprint, right? We love the opportunity with UScellular because -- I mean, we're getting something like 47 megahertz of spectrum across 37 million POPs, plus thousands of incremental towers, right, which takes this whole best value and best network to a different place in communities. I mean, I was at Oklahoma City, right?
And they are unbelievably excited by UScellular because for a long time, they've kind of competed on value, but they've been waiting for this day when they can stand up and say, in my city, T-Mobile is the best, right? And that is now going to become a reality, right? So as we talk about large parts of the country, right, in landmarks, where historically, we've been not the best network, and we're becoming the best network today, whether it's UScellular or without, that's just really exciting from an energy and momentum that it brings.
On the specifics, like I said, we've learned a huge amount from Sprint, which is why we've been not just able to increase the synergy amount from $1 billion to $1.2 billion, but also excitingly change our time frame from 3 to 4 years to 2 years. So good news all around.
And just you mentioned the network leads me to think about spectrum. And just curious for your interest to acquire additional spectrum. And specifically, if you could share some perspectives on whether or not T-Mobile has taken a look at the EchoStar spectrum position recently and if it has bands that would benefit T-Mobile and your customers?
So start with kind of our overall capital allocation and how we think about spectrum. Capital allocation, we start with what our leverage ratio is. We're comfortable with it being at 2.5 right now. We then work back to say what are all the investments that we want to make in the business and then bottoms out and that includes spectrum and then bottoms out that into shareholder remuneration, right?
Now specifically on spectrum, let's take a couple of examples on the EchoStar spectrum that was transacted recently, right? 345, clearly, we had no interest in. We've got the kind of Goldilocks spectrum in mid-band. We've got 184 megahertz of spectrum nationwide on 2.5. 2.5 gives you 70% more coverage than C-band, right, which other people have spent $85 billion for. Right? 345 is encumbered in certain areas. We sold our 345 spectrum. And we -- in the context of having 2.5, it's kind of didn't make sense for us.
600, now we're the natural home for 600 spectrum. But this gives -- but our view on the whole EchoStar transaction should give you a sense of how seriously, responsibly and rigorously we take this whole capital allocation thing because we went about approaching it exactly like the way we make most decisions on spectrum, right? Spectrum is useful for coverage or capacity.
600, most of the markets where EchoStar has spectrum, we have more than enough spectrum from a coverage perspective. More spectrum than adds to capacity. Right? Now the question then is there's 2 ways of adding capacity given multiplexing, right? You could just add more sites or you go pay for the spectrum. So we horse race what it would cost to build sites versus the cost of the spectrum.
And it didn't make sense for us to pay the price, right? That's how -- that's the rigor with which we approach each of these decisions. And just to be clear, when we think about these things, we don't kind of add in things like FWA because we're committed to a fallow capacity model on FWA. And we've talked about that at length in the past.
So speaking of FWA, you've kept up momentum in terms of quarterly net adds in that business. What's been driving the momentum in terms of broadening coverage versus deepening penetration in existing markets?
Look, FWA is just a fabulous story. I just put this in perspective. 2 years ago, we had 3.7 million customers. Today, we have 7.3 million, right? Each of our customers uses 25% more data today than 2 years ago. And our speeds have gone up by 40% to 50%.
Today, the average customer uses 561 gigs, right? Our speeds have gone up 40% to 50% and our mobile, our wireless business, the network has improved substantially as evidenced by all the stuff we've been winning. So we love that model.
Now if you look at what's been driving our growth, it is a superior product. Our NPS is 30 points higher than cable, right -- where both products are available. It's just a fabulous product, easy to use. It's why we have -- we still have a wait list of greater than 1 million customers. And that again goes back to how rigorously we manage this process.
When we say it's fallow capacity, it is fallow capacity, right? We've also seen strong growth in business, which we like because if you think of a mobile network runs 24 hours, it's pumping out gigs all the time, right? But you build that network from a wireless perspective really for your peak between 7 to 9. Business FWA has a very different peak from consumer wireless. So that's clearly utilization of fallow capacity. It's another kind of demonstration of our commitment to that model. So it's great product, new segments, all of the above. And there's still a lot of hunger out there for the product.
So momentum is still going?
Absolutely.
And on the fiber broadband side, so a newer business for you guys. You put out some goals, I think, for the second half of the year. How is that performing?
So we said 100,000 nets. We're well on track. We like that business. We like the fact that it's still like really early days, right? So outside of kind of sharing the latest daily sales spreadsheet, it's hard to kind of talk about any sustained trend on that. We feel very good about the 100,000. I think importantly for me, strategically, the direction of travel was we can bring some real value to this category.
As I said, when we think about new businesses, it's smashing pain points, are we in a unique position? What I like about it is the brand, the distribution, a lot of the hypothesis behind that are continuing to -- we have even more conviction in those than when we started.
So as you look at the multiyear guidance that you have, are you identifying any incremental opportunities, whether it's for growth or for efficiencies and margin?
I'm not going to do an update on our multiyear guide, right? We laid out a story at Capital Markets Day in terms of the thesis, which was a combination of kind of network, the huge steps we're taking on digital, the big underserved segments, the big segments where we're underrepresented. What I can say is as we sit here today, I think our conviction and our kind of -- our sense of the doability of that plan and all of that has only grown, and you know this team, right? We've got a track record. We go out there, commit and then make sure we nail it, right? And that's what you should expect from us.
What I also remember about the analyst meeting is you talked about the T-Life application opportunity. And the opportunity to just create more of a digital healthy experience for customers. You now have -- you mentioned 75 million on the T-Life...
75 million customers downloaded.
Downloaded it. And so what's your progress towards this goal of reducing that inbound customer care calls by 75% and leveraging AI to improve the customer experience?
So I'm going to sound like a stuck record here, but look, we never started any of those conversations back from cost, right? We started those conversations with -- there's a fundamental pain point in this industry, yet another ridiculous trade-off. You can walk into a store and kind of get great service and empathy.
But if you want to do it by yourself, right, there's a robotic press one to do this or there's a really clunky website, right, which just is a trade-off you don't need to have. You can have great service in store. We'd love you to have kind of an expert in your pocket wherever you go, right? And the experience you get is identical.
We've made some really strong progress towards that because our approach hasn't been about taking out cost. It's been about that will come. That will naturally flow as a result of us taking out the pain points, restructuring our process, right, and doing things like helping our agents deal with these calls better.
We're really happy with the progress we're making, and we've got clear milestones, getting capability ready, driving customer adoption. The changes started to happen. I think we shared the last time that one of our biggest transactions, which is upgrades in store, we're seeing now more than 2/3 of our upgrades are being done on T-Life. So the progress is really strong.
And the engagement -- so outside of the store, so after people leave and then just are they managing their service experience, how are you seeing engagement on the app? Of course, you've got T-Mobile Tuesdays on there.
So let me give you a reflection of how strong the engagement with T-Life is. When we ran the Wingstop offer, they ran out of chicken countrywide, right? The same thing happened with Domino's on Dough, right? So this -- the engagement on T-Life is incredibly strong. And there are some weeks where we're more downloaded than TikTok on the App Store, right? So the engagement is super strong.
And when we talk about AI is now an integral part of the app, we're really pleased with our partnership with OpenAI and everything that we're doing together. And AI is now an intrinsic part of every part of our business. Our customer-driven coverage has strong elements of AI. Our app is infused with AI, right, with this thing we call IntentCX.
When you call our service center, our experts actually get a whisper in their ear with something called Expert Assist, which says this customer is probably calling about this or they get a screen, right? And so that sort of stuff just means our ability to take pain away from the process and remove this contradiction or this false trade-off between in-person grade, everything else really hard and clunky. And we'll keep pushing you towards that everything else even if it's really hard and clunky. That's not customer-friendly.
So when you reflect back on your experience on the Board and now in the management team, how is your view of capital allocation evolving, including the mix of what you're doing with the dividend versus buybacks?
It's -- I outlined our broad principle of how we allocate capital, right? And within those broad principles, we're incredibly flexible. I think the difference between the Board and management is when I was part of the Board, I thought we had an incredibly rigorous discussion on capital allocation.
As part of the management, I realize I'm scratching the surface of this because the quality and debate and how seriously we take our investors' money and the fact that we're making big capital allocation decisions on their behalf. And a good example of that is walking away when spectrum is too expensive, right? We take that stuff incredibly seriously and the level of passion and debate about that is unbelievable.
Is there anything else you want our group to just keep in mind as they think about T-Mobile?
Look, like I said, I've been in multiple telco markets. I have not come across a unicorn like T-Mobile, where we've got all of the ingredients, best network, best value, best experience and an incredible culture. All of that put together, to me means much as the last 10 to 12 years have been incredibly successful, right? The best awaits us.
Thank you for joining us today.
Thank you.
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T-Mobile US — Citi’s 2025 Global Technology
T-Mobile US — Citi’s 2025 Global Technology
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Netzführung: Gopalan betont, T‑Mobile sei laut großangelegten Crowd‑Tests jetzt das beste US‑Mobilnetz; Management sieht daraus nachhaltigen Vorteil bei Marktanteilsgewinnen.
- Wahrnehmungslücke: Trotz technischer Führerschaft besteht ein großes Gap zwischen Netzwerk‑Realität und Kundenwahrnehmung, das als Hauptwachstumshebel identifiziert wird.
- Wachstumshebel: Skalierung von Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), selektive Fiber‑JV‑Rollouts und stärkere Enterprise‑Akquise sollen Umsatz, Margen und Free‑Cash‑Flow antreiben.
- Digitalisierung: T‑Life (75 Mio. Downloads) und KI‑Integrationen (Partnerschaft mit OpenAI) werden als Treiber für Kundenbindung und Effizienz genannt.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Netzstrategie: Anspruch auf nachhaltige Führerschaft: mehr Sites, 184 MHz 2.5‑GHz‑Spektrum nationwide, 5G‑Standalone früh ausgerollt – Basis für Marketing und Enterprise‑Wins.
- Broadband‑Ansatz: Zweigleisig über FWA (12 Mio. Kunden genannt) und selektive Fiber‑JVs mit Partnern wie Metronet/Lumos; Fiber soll equity‑ und wertsteigernd sein.
- SMRA‑Fokus: Stärkeres Wachstumspotenzial in Smaller Markets and Rural Areas (SMRA): SMRA‑Anteil stieg von ~13% auf ~20%, hier sieht Management zusätzlichen Raum für Share‑Gewinn.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- UScellular‑Integration: Synergien wurden von $1,0 Mrd. auf $1,2 Mrd. erhöht; Zeitplan verkürzt von 3–4 Jahren auf ~2 Jahre.
- Guidance: Management bekräftigt die laufende Jahres‑Guidance trotz Übernahmeeinfluss; kein Update zur mehrjährigen Leitlinie gegeben.
- Spectrum‑Disziplin: EchoStar‑Transaktion kommentiert als Beispiel für rigorose Kapitalallokation — T‑Mobile zahlt nicht jeden Preis für zusätzlichen Spektrumbedarf.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Perception vs. Reality: Analysten fragten, wie schnell Wahrnehmung bei Prospects schließt; Management nennt Marketingkampagnen, Frontline‑Mitarbeiter und Messdaten, bleibt aber vorsichtig bei Timing‑Prognosen.
- Konvergenz/Bundling: Nachfrage zu Bundling‑Risiken/Chancen beantwortet mit Ablehnung eines großflächigen Convergence‑Paradigmas in den USA; T‑Mobile sieht Familienpläne als bereits stark bindend.
- Fiber & KPIs: Nachfragen zu Zielzahlen für Homes Passed wurden nicht mit fixen Targets beantwortet; Fokus auf „first/near‑first to fiber“, JVs und Capital‑Effizienz statt absoluten Pass‑Zahlen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Präsentation stärkt die These: nachhaltige Netzführerschaft plus digitale Skaleneffekte (T‑Life, KI) liefern mehrere Hebel für profitables Wachstum; Wahrnehmungs‑gap bleibt zentrales Risiko, aber Management zeigt konkrete Maßnahmen und disziplinierte Kapitalallokation.
T-Mobile US — Bank of America 2025 Media
1. Question Answer
Mike Funk from Bank of America. Head the telecommunications, infrastructure, software group. Really grateful to have T-Mobile with us back again. I've got Jon and Peter here with us today. And we should have a safe harbor, there we go. Safe harbor agreement statement up on the screen, normal boiler plate, but please review.
Guys, thank you again for coming out. This is great.
Thanks for having us.
Yes.
Yes. Outstanding. Look, and great timing. I saw you guys dropped an 8-K this morning and some additional details, some updated forecasting around the USM deal. So can you walk through and broad brush that for any of us that did not get a chance to go through it in detail?
Yes. We like to test you by putting it out right before we speak. But it's a really exciting day for us. Obviously, the U.S. Cellular transaction closed. And what we put out there today is now that we've had some time and detail on this, we really feel all of the lessons that we've learned from Sprint and that integration can actually accelerate this one even more. So not only did we announce increased synergies, now $1.2 billion total expected run rate synergies, about $250 million of that is CapEx and the balance being OpEx. But we now believe we can get to that exit run rate synergy inside of 2 years.
Originally, the time line was anticipated to be 3 to 4, but everything we've learned to date, everything that we've gotten from the Sprint merger itself and all of the expertise there, we're going to apply all of that to U.S. Cellular. So we're tremendously excited about that. The other thing you saw us do is really just give some pinpoint Q3 guidance around what do we anticipate the U.S. Cellular accretion to be to service revenue, core EBITDA and of course, things like cost to achieve as we're hitting the ground running on integration itself.
And maybe just a finer point on what you learned from the Sprint deal and what gave you more confidence in raising that guidance. So specifically learnings from the Sprint deal or the other details you learned about USM recently as well that allowed you to increase that guidance range for the synergies?
Sure. I would say mainly 2 things. There's a lot on the edges, but 2 things in particular. One, applying, as you know, we have a very proprietary, what we call customer-driven coverage model to how we build and applying that same data, AI-infused methodology to what are the retained sites that are going to make the combined network experience even better for both T-Mobile customers as well as the U.S. Cellular customers joining us, allowed us to say, well, the amount of cell sites that we actually need to retain, we can go faster because we can do all the -- what we call [indiscernible] and reverse [indiscernible] and really make the day one experience for U.S. Cellular as well as T-Mobile customers better, that allows us to go faster towards decommissioning the sites that we don't need.
The other one is really learning every lesson we had, and Jon was really the architect of all of this around how do you treat new customers coming to you? How do you give them as quickly as you can the same proposition of best value, best network, move them seamlessly through billing migration as quickly as possible without being an irritant. So those are the 2 things that really, as we looked at it and had the detail and could get into the customer data post close that gave us the confidence to increase and accelerate those synergies.
No, it's outstanding. Thank you for the details and give me the CliffsNotes on the 8-K from this morning so helpful for me as well. So I wanted to go back talking about the business in the current environment. So we are entering the busier and more promotional part of the year. We're going to have iPhone launches coming up and then holidays. So can you comment on how 3Q is shaping up? And let me just set the stage for one second.
So my assessment based on conversations that I have had is that maybe the competitive intensity became a little bit less in 3Q that promotions were more targeted in general across the industry, more rifle shot. And so some of the factors that drove higher churn across the entire industry in the first half of the year maybe have slackened. So in the context of what [indiscernible] laid out from my research and my channel checks, can you comment on what you're seeing, what T-Mobile is seeing?
Yes. Maybe I'll start and hand it to Jon as well. And a little bit actually what we put into the press release this morning kind of expressed that the core business itself is actually performing even better than we anticipated and allowed us to absorb the UScellular customers. And this is very much a repeat of what we saw at Sprint, where we're taking on a higher churning base that will take down as we introduce them to the best value, best network formula itself. But the core business is performing very strongly, and that allowed us to maintain the customer guide for postpaid phones as well as total postpaid while absorbing that U.S. customer higher churning base as well.
If I think about what's happening in Q3 versus Q2, from a promotional perspective, it feels very similar to me, at least certainly for T-Mobile because what we do is very much target and create promotions that link our best device-centric offers, which is where kind of the industry is from a service device-centric promotionality perspective to our top-tier rate plans and that creates great customer lifetime values, which is what the primary driver of what we're focused on are. And in that context, in Q2, you saw what we delivered, not only from a customer perspective, but how it translates into ARPA growth, how it translates into differentiated service revenue growth, now 3x what our peers were able to deliver, and that's just Q2. That's something that continues on quarter after quarter.
And what we're seeing in Q3, you saw us express confidence at the earnings call, and we're seeing that same environment play through into Q3. That's what enabled us to really say the underlying core business is actually performing even better than what underpinned the guide at Q2 earnings, and that's why we can absorb the U.S. Cellular base while still delivering what we're anticipating for the year. I don't know, Jon, if you have anything to add there...
No, that was a great summary -- exactly wind them up. That was a great summary. The thing that I would add is just dovetailing off of Peter's comments in terms of the strength in Q3 versus Q2, is this unique formula that we have at T-Mobile, the best value, the best network and the best experience. And that unique value, sure, there's promotions and overall demand generation in the market, and that changes from time to time. It might be a little bit more vibrant during the holiday periods, it might be a little bit more muted in other periods. But this unique value, this unique proposition, we think, is shining through in a bigger way.
The announcement that we had on June 23 was that we've been awarded as the best overall network in the United States. And we've got a big campaign talking about that as you guys have probably seen in some form of advertising with Billy Bob Thornton and the like, really talking about that. And we're seeing more and more people think about us and consider us based on our network strength. I mean when you think about like the switchers that are out there, 20% of them believe that we have the best network. In other words, 80% of people don't believe that just yet, even though we do.
And so there's this big gap between network reality and network perception that we have a huge opportunity to close to continue to drive goodness in the overall marketplace. And that's a huge tailwind for us in our business, and we're seeing some of that play out here in Q3 as well.
I think that's such an important point. And that's when you see us express so much confidence in terms of on an earnings call or how we deliver the quarters that we do, Q2 was our highest ever Q2 for postpaid phone. In the storied history of the Un-carrier and T-Mobile, it was the highest Q2. It was the highest total postpaid net additions. And it's very important. I know everybody gets focused on postpaid phone, and it's a very important category, but the other connected devices bring so much value accretion to the company as well.
That's why we focus on both, and that's why we're so focused on ARPA. But this formula, it's not just promotions, as you say, everybody can mirror and copy each other's promotions. The distinctiveness and what underpins our ability to deliver industry-leading results, multiples of what the others can do is this place that we've arrived of the best value and the best network. And the perception in our own base of the best network has dramatically risen over the last few years. And yet that, coupled with the underpenetrated market segments that we have from the past is what fuels so much optimism about the path forward from here for us.
Great. And the positivity is clear that you're laying out, linking back to the 2Q commentary, but then also today talking about even better performance during the quarter. So that's incredibly clear. I want to put this all in the context of the switching environment, though, in general, right, because it's a market where relatively full penetration. We can debate how many industry net adds there are per year and immigration and second phones and everything. But switching is certainly up, right, year-over-year. I'm hearing that switching up year-over-year in 3Q, maybe down a little bit versus 2Q, but similar to 1Q levels, if that all makes sense to you.
So I guess, number one, do you agree with that assessment? And with T-Mobile being maybe a net beneficiary of more people making choices, right? Where do you think industry switching goes in the future and what keeps that elevated, right? That created the opportunity for you to grab those gross adds?
There's no doubt that switching is up in this industry on a year-over-year basis. We see that as great news. Now we can play in either environment. We can play in a low switching environment and make that environment very successful. We've proven that during some periods over the last 5 years. Or in this higher switching environment, we actually like that better because to the point of your question, Mike, is that it presents more jump balls for us. It presents more people to go and look and say, "Hey, am I getting the very best value? Am I getting the very best product? Am I getting the very best experience?" And it has people reconsidering those choices. And when they reconsider that choice, we're winning in the marketplace.
So overall switching volume is up. We like it that way. Where it actually goes from here, it's kind of hard to know. It's hard to predict to the point like we don't really get into industry net add forecasting for all the reasons that you just said as well. But when we look at our opportunity in terms of what's happening in the market, this unique proposition that we have and what Peter was mentioning just a few moments ago, the underpenetrated segments, whether that be still more growth that we have in the top 100 markets, more growth than we have in smaller markets and rural areas and then even more growth that we have in our business segment as well, huge tailwinds for us. So if this is an elevated switching environment and there's a little bit higher churn across everybody, net-net, that's good for us because it's fueling our ongoing growth.
Great. It's a great point to make. But I do want to touch a little bit on immigration. I'm not going to ask you to quantify the net adds in 2026. But I've estimated maybe 2 million to 3 million drag on subs from immigration reform or changes. That could be right. It could be could be wrong, but have you seen any impact on your business? And if you haven't, do you think there could be a lag? And if not, why?
We haven't seen an impact in our business on immigration. This is one of the big question marks that was out there in terms of the immigration reform and the goals of the current administration and what they wanted to do. So we knew there was some speculation about this. And even we look -- we're preparing for some potential impact, but we haven't seen an impact at all. One of the reasons we believe is that maybe in transactional prepaid spaces, so more kind of pay by the day, pay by the week, pay by the month, the lower value prepaid space, that might be more of an impact, I'm not really sure. Those are kind of more other companies that have those kinds of brands.
Our overall portfolio from a prepaid perspective is focused on high-quality monthly customers particularly flanked by our Metro by T-Mobile brand. We have Metro by T-Mobile, of course, we have Mint that has a multi-month payment option. We have a brand called Ultra. Those overall brands are solidifying us from any potential impact that's out there. And you can see it in our overall results in terms of what we reported so far, we've seen no impact. The other thing, too, that I would point us and everyone to is that when you looked at the huge immigration inflows of 2022 and 2023, we didn't see a big bump out of that. And so there wasn't like all of this immigration that was coming through, whether legal or illegal that was showing up in our prepaid results or our postpaid results. We didn't see that.
And so therefore, if we didn't see that, we shouldn't have much of an impact as a result of that. And ongoing lags, I don't think so. I don't see any of that happening in terms of lag some number of months from now relative to immigration. I don't see it and don't feel it at all in the marketplace.
I do want to touch on spectrum because it's topical given recent events, AT&T, EchoStar announced last week. So can you first comment on if you looked at the 600 in the mid-band as well? If you did, why you didn't execute on that? Then I have a few follow-ups as well as some spectrum position and thoughts around it.
Sure. Absolutely. Of course, any time spectrum is potentially coming to market, we'll look at it. We'll look at it in the context, if I back up around, does it complement our spectrum leadership position that we've translated with technology leadership, how we deploy into network leadership. And in this case, naturally, 600 is an area that we have heavily...
Deployed...
Very heavily deployed. You also see us make strategic moves to center our spectrum strategy around what the core is, particularly in mid-band around 2.5. And you saw us actually divest some of the 3.45 earlier. We looked at the spectrum. We understand it well. Obviously, it has some encumbrances in some areas. And so on the 3.45, we weren't really an interested party because it doesn't align with our spectrum leadership position and strategy. On 600, what we always do, and this is true around any spectrum acquisition potential, whether we're going into an auction or a third party, we look at 2 things.
And we look at -- when you acquire more spectrum, you can perhaps get more coverage, and that allows you to go into areas that maybe you're not in today and generate demand, much like our smaller markets and rural areas playbook has generated or you can generate capacity, right? And as data grows, you might need capacity growth. That's how we look at any spectrum opportunity. And we look at it in the context of can you buy it or can you build it, right? You can always densify and obviously, that comes with CapEx and OpEx and you have to think about what the cost of that is relative to just adding more spectrum bands on it. When we looked at 600, it was a question of, well, there isn't really very much incremental coverage given how broadly we have 600 deployed nationwide. So it was a coverage -- capacity, sorry, play for us.
And then we looked at, well, what would it take to create incremental capacity on the low band, which remember is predominantly a coverage play for us. Mid-band is where the vast majority of traffic is carried on our network, and it didn't make sense from a relative value perspective. So we're always going to be tremendously disciplined in whether it's spectrum acquisitions or any other acquisition as a company to make sure that we're creating value. That's how we approach this one as well.
Yes. And so you deployed 600. AT&T has deployed 700. It could be a win-win to a spectrum swap. Why wouldn't that make sense for both of you?
Well, one, we also have R700 broadly deployed in the network. It's a workhorse around our LTE and is an area that you can always refarm into 5G. So what -- any time there's an opportunity to swap spectrum, you've seen us actually swap spectrum with AT&T and Verizon to center around the bands again, whether it's low, mid or millimeter wave that make the most sense for us and our leadership position. So of course, we'd be open to a discussion, but it's always going to be, can you do it in the context of value creation, especially considering we have both bands deployed as well.
Okay. Makes sense. So the price changes have been a large part of the discussion around wireless industry. I think in 3Q, you fully lapped some of the prices that were taken last year. How should we think about lapping those impacting your subscriber base, the metrics? And then also ARPA growth, the linkage there as well?
Well, maybe I'll begin with ARPA and can hand it to Jon around the rest. And remember, I think also what we announced today is continued anticipation of at least 3.5% ARPA growth on the core business. Now we've also acquired UScellular and we have Metronet customers, both that have come in at lower than T-Mobile ARPAs, which represent amazing opportunities for us to grow those relationships, much like we did in past acquisitions. But the underlying core business, we see continued strength and are expecting at least 3.5% ARPA growth on a full year to full year basis.
I think what you're speaking about is what we called out in Q2, which is, of course, when you have moments of rate plan optimizations, it's a manifestation of what just when do you do it and how does it impact year-over-year metrics. But we're focused on ARPA growth with the predominance of our ARPA growth being focused on customers self-selecting up rate plans because of the value that's created there or deepening their relationship with other connected devices and/or other lines in the relationship from a postpaid phone perspective. So continued strength there. And really, everything is firing on all cylinders. But anything else from a net adds perspective...
I would just reinforce what Peter said. The orientation for us is to not do pricing optimizations. We had to take a couple of those moves, one that we started last year, we concluded at the beginning of this year. And those were old legacy plans, of course, but the orientation of our company is to unlock value through switching, deepening relationships, packing our most premium plans full of value and encouraging customers to self-select up that rate card.
Understood. But Jon, do you -- is your assessment, though, that the customer is more price sensitive today than they were 12 months ago? Because I'm hearing that from others that just the elasticity of demand might be higher today than it was 12 or 24 months ago? Or are you not seeing that because your playbook, to your point, is more about delivering value and the customer isn't necessarily perceiving it as a price increase, it's more of an enhanced product. Just a bit of a nuance, but I'm just trying to draw the line between comments I'm hearing from others versus what I'm hearing from you today.
Are some -- are customers demanding more value than ever for value being what you get for the price you pay? Sure. They are. And that's why we're winning so much. When you look at our experience beyond plan, our most premium plan versus the previous plan -- previous premium plan with Go5G Next and our previous lineup, we're up 2x as a percentage basis of the take rate of the most premium plan. And that's not customers being price sensitive. That's customers that are craving value and wanting even more value.
So when you think about all of the streaming services that we pack into those plans, whether that be Netflix or Hulu, some of the in-flight WiFi services that we provide, people that are traveling on planes, you can get the entire WiFi. The entire flight on WiFi for free from us. Other perks like DashPass that we just introduced when we made this network announcement back on June 23, all of these services that customers are -- find real utility for in their daily lives that they can get either for free or at a steep discount as a result of a premium plan, they are loving that. And our orientation is to pack more value and to really be great stewards of the overall value proposition across every single point of the lineup, but particularly at the highest end of the lineup and encourage customers to adopt those premium plans.
I think why you're perhaps hearing a difference from us relative to the competition on this is all centered around our strategy. We've long been known as the customer value leader. That's really what drove the growth during particular 2013 as you look to the initial merger years at this company. We've arrived at the place of having the best value and the best network, which creates tremendous tailwinds into the future. But we're never going to leave our maniacal focus on customers and the customer value leadership. That's why we're not focused on, hey, it's a price increase after a price increase after a price increase. Let's pack more value into the plans.
One, we have a different front book, back book dynamic than anybody else in this industry because of how we've built up through customer value leadership, our net position. But two, it's that combination of value leadership and network leadership, that P&Q combination that we have so magically nailed here is what drives our ability to outperform the entire industry on customer net additions, on account net additions, real switching relationships coming over to T-Mobile and most importantly, our ability to translate that into service revenue.
And when you look at once again at Q2, if you look at -- in this case, you're really focused on postpaid, postpaid service revenue was 3x the growth of AT&T and Verizon. And that wasn't a manifestation of one quarter. That's been quarter after quarter after quarter, service revenue leadership. And of course, we can also differentially translate that into profitability and have the highest conversion of that service revenue into free cash flow. But it's the thing. On the edges, are there very legacy rate plans that we had to address? Yes, we did that. And there's probably -- those are things we'll look at on the edges. But the lens is how do we maintain customer value leadership that paired with network leadership can continue this machine into a long-run industry outperformer.
I want to move to strategic for a second. You've had a lot of announcements recently. I'm not going to be touching all of them. But one was the cable MVNO right, and targeted up to, what, 1,000 or 999 employee businesses. We all know that the Verizon deal was for 20 or fewer employee businesses. We also all know that AT&T and Verizon had much higher market share of enterprise and business customers in T-Mobile just given the legacy business.
So I mean, was this purely Machiavellian where you mean chased by bear in the woods and you [indiscernible] your 2 other friends, so [indiscernible] focuses on them? Or was there kind of a stand-alone business rationale where you're like, you know what, we just can't really serve this market as well. We don't want to service market as well. We T-Mobile, we want to be the larger enterprise provider with 5G and the functionality, you put in your advertisement and that was a stand-alone rationale. So just help me with that, conspiracy theory or stand-alone business case.
Completely a stand-alone business case...
[indiscernible] theory is so much more.
I wish I could give you something, but I can't. It's really -- it actually represents our long-held and even externally discussed strategy with respect to MVNOs. And that is look at areas where MVNO partners could create more value for us than ourselves because they may have unique customer segments or distribution that we should leverage and we shouldn't build. And yes, so in this case, to your point, on the micro side, less than 20, the power cable has already been playing in this for years and years and years. And actually, it was the impetus as a tangent to some of the moves we recently made because micro and consumer behave very similarly. You should think about the propositions complementary to each other. Much of it is already serviced through retail.
And so that's why it made sense to consolidate that all under Jon's leadership where he's done a fabulous job on consumer and frankly, done most of the micro TFB through there anyway. And then on the enterprise, the over 1,000 piece, the enterprise segment we believe we have a disproportionate right to win because of our disproportionate network capabilities. And these are the companies that test. They want more than just here's a postpaid phone at the same or maybe slightly higher cost because we have a better network. They want solutions. And our network is the one that can bring it because of our technology leadership and spectrum position. So that's why it made sense on those 2 ends. In the middle, cable has a great distribution play and relationships into that market. And we said, well, that is very much aligned with our strategy for MVNOs. So it makes sense to have a relationship there.
And we believe that's -- all of this is going to be slightly accretive to the business. This isn't some sort of wow, big game changer, none of that. It's slightly accretive to the business over time. Let's leverage their distribution. We can actually generate higher CLVs for us doing that. And let's focus in micro and enterprise where we have the right to win.
Okay. Makes a lot of sense to me. I'm going to stick with my pitch though, when I do client meetings. It's much more interesting. The free line has been a discussion for years at T-Mobile. It's not new. It's been a discussion for years. But help me think about the success rate of migrating free to paid lines over time. And I don't know how much you can give me around that, but it would be hugely helpful if I can frame that.
Yes. I think when this question comes up, it's almost always people are trying to get at the quality of the customer base.
Exactly.
Yes, right at the quality of the customer base. And a few things that I would point out. One is, Peter mentioned this just a few moments ago, our highest postpaid service revenue increase in the last like 9%, right, and incredible. Our -- let's see, our highest postpaid ARPA increase in the last 8 years, net account additions, so the real barometer of what's happening with switching in the marketplace, net accounts accelerating on a year-over-year basis. The overall quality of this customer base is fantastic. We don't use that tool as an acquisition offer at all.
We use the tool more as a retention offer. And we use it very, very -- it's one of the tools in the toolbox. We use it very targeted, very selectively to help customers. If we can get a customer that might be taking an entire account away to rethink that decision and stay perhaps 1, 2, 3, maybe even some number of years longer than that as a result of a free line, that's great for us and the overall CLV contribution of retaining that account is fantastic. Then, of course, we have an opportunity to further differentiate and deepen that relationship, too, with other products and services and get more and more adoption from things beyond the smartphone, whether that be tablets or watches or fixed wireless with our 5G home broadband.
So we really love this tool. It's one tool. We use it very targeted, very selectively as an overall retention tool, while at the same time, when you pan back and zoom out entire -- the overall customer base and the health of our customer base, we are feeling really, really great about the health of our customer base and where we're going.
Okay. That's helpful. Thinking about it that way. And you actually reminded me of a topic that I didn't want to skip, and so I'm going to drag you down the AI hole for a second. Okay. And I don't think AI is discussed enough in telecom, honestly. And you may know, I spent the last 5 years covering software for covering telecom for the first 20 years in my career. So I've kind of been deep in that well for the last several years. And my idea is that industries, companies that have really deep customer data, right, a lot of customer touch points and relationship and then also have this core domain expertise, understanding their business extremely well, unlike anyone else, are best positioned to really harvest and utilize AI to enhance their business, right, from a customer retention perspective and even to drive revenue growth.
So -- can you explain to me what T-Mobile is doing, whether it's utilizing CDPs, customer data platforms and all those touch points to your customers and very specific demographic data to kind of feed into an AI engine to improve that customer retention you just talked about and/or more targeted offers to take them up that customer lifetime value through pricing. What are you doing?
Yes. There's a variety of things we're doing. We've talked about this at our Capital Markets Day when we talked about our new partnership with OpenAI and what we're doing with IntentCX. We're still at the very early beginnings of all of the opportunities in this space. But you said it just a few moments ago in terms of the plethora of data that we have, whether that be our network data, billing data and customer interaction data. At T-Mobile, those data lakes really kind of never met one another. And so what we've been doing is doing a lot of work to get that data to meet one another and put AI on top of that to get real insights to improve the overall customer experience.
We see this as a big opportunity to improve that overall customer experience. And what we've been doing is reorienting our team, particularly our customer care team of not being proud to solve a problem, but being proud to prevent a problem as a result of all of this emerging technology. And so that's a big part of what we're doing. We're in the early innings of our IntentCX platform, our partnership with OpenAI, lots of interesting things that's happening in that space. And then also the AI that we're doing to drive our customer-driven coverage.
Peter mentioned this just a few moments ago in terms of customer-driven coverage and the AI capabilities that you can deploy in the network. Whether this is going to manifest itself in more automation, more intelligence, so much opportunity in front of us. But we see this -- a lot of companies talk about AI in terms of like, hey, how do I take a bunch of costs out of the business? And sure, there's going to be some operating efficiencies as a result of AI. But we see AI as an application to be able to enhance the customer experience. If you can take the world's best people with the world's best technology and marry those things together, I think there's something really powerful there that few companies are talking about.
Okay. Look forward to hearing more then, I guess, over the next several quarters and year on progress here that you're seeing there. I probably have time for a few more. So I don't want to skip over to asking about Metronet, Lumos now closed. Are there any early learnings post close? I know you always learn something once you kind of really get into the books and you start opening things up. So what have you learned post close?
Well, I'd say a couple of things. One, we're very excited and only validated that we pick the right partners. If you look at Metronet in this case, the largest greenfield fiber builder in the country, it's a very exciting thing to be able to partner with people who are experts in that space and take that ability to build fiber like nobody else in the greenfield fiber space and couple it with the strengths that we bring from a customer relationship, distribution, all of that platform and start really launching this thing.
We launched T-Fiber earlier in the year. We're very confident now that the guide that we gave you, where already this year, we anticipate 100,000 net additions coming from fiber, and that's embedded in our guide. That's going to come to fruition. So everything is off and running. We're very excited about this space and bringing the T-Mobile magic to it, and that's probably it.
Okay. Great. I don't want to forget to ask, there have been press reports that seem relatively credible about Mike retiring. So can you guys please update us comment on those press reports?
Yes. I'm probably going to be remarkably uninsightful here because, obviously, any sort of succession plan and decisions around that is going to be for Mike and the Board to make. But maybe what I can add from my perspective is I really don't sweat this at all. It's not something that is in my mind, concerning. I think Jon is in the same place, the entire leadership team because the few things we have said and Mike has said very transparently, look, a company -- a great successful company has to have great, thoughtful long-term succession plans. And Mike said, Srini is definitely the succession plan for someone, right?
And that makes a lot of sense. He has not only deep expertise in digitalization and other industries as well as telco, fiber that make a lot of sense for accelerating the benefits and the transformation that we talked about at Capital Markets Day, but also he has deep experience with T-Mobile itself, years and years and years, not only on the Board, but obviously now as COO, helping us develop and shape the strategy. And for now the entire year, we've been jointly with Mike and Srini leading us into just tremendous success. And you saw our enthusiasm here around Q3 in and of itself and UScellular and all of that.
So any company is going to do the right thing from a succession perspective. I know Mike personally, whenever that decision gets made, he's going to make sure that this company is in the hands of somebody who's going to take the un-carrier spirit and accelerate it. And so those are kind of the reasons that I'm not sweating this. And I don't know, Jon, none of us are.
Same, same. We feel that the brightest days of this company are in front of us versus behind us. I mean I personally have been a part of this organization for 30 years, 31 years. And most of that 31 years has been kind of scraping and climb and trying to fight with this inferior network position and like subscale, inferior network, inferior set of assets. And now when you think about where we are and from a position of extraordinary strength and what we can do over the next several years with this incredible management team, it's something that I don't sweat. I feel unbelievably great about where we are, where we're going, the opportunities in front of us, the overall plan that we laid out in our Capital Markets Day and our ability to go and execute that plan, we've never been in a stronger position than we are right now.
Understood. So investors get comfortable with the idea that if there were a management team, deep management bench, succession plan already in place, nothing changes operationally and strategically. That's...
You've got -- when that time -- when it comes, because Mike has been clear, this is the succession plan, it's going to be because you've got the right person, you're coming at a time of tremendous success of the company and you leave it in the right hands. So that's why, again, I don't sweat when that decision ultimately is made.
Okay. Last question would be fixed wireless access as part of the AT&T EchoStar deal, AT&T obviously announced more aggressive posture on FWA, one interpretation could be that seems to justify or certainly validate the strategy that you've taken from FWA. But how do you feel about that space getting more crowded, right, with AT&T aligning more Verizon, working on the [ MDU ] solution. It's a space you've obviously done very well in, but now there's a lot more competition. So how do you feel about that expanded competitive environment?
We feel great about this space. I mean, remember, our strategy is perhaps a little bit different than their stated strategy, which is utilization of fallow capacity. So a tremendously high-margin business and also one that helps you utilize your spectrum much more efficiently. And when you look at the success of this business, a couple of things come to mind. One is just what's it done over the last couple of years. There's always been a question it's funny to watch competitors kind of follow our lead of -- especially when you look at them, it's -- well, it's not a thing, oh, maybe it's a little bit of a thing.
Now I'm ready to deploy apparently $23 billion of spectrum against it because it's really a thing, which is what we've been saying all along. And when you look at the last 2 years of our own trajectory that really proves this and why we're so excited about the space and on our way to our much increased 12 million subscriber goal by the end of 2028. In the last 2 years in this space, because of how we approach it from a really deeply data-informed fallow capacity model, you've doubled the subscriber base for T-Mobile. You've seen each subscriber utilize 20% more data, now just slightly over 560 gigabytes a month, exactly in line with our projections of where this is going to go.
And yet you've seen speeds increase 50%. That's the magic, right? This isn't a static technology and platform. Wireless technology is constantly evolving, whether that's the CPE itself, whether that's at the radio access network in the core, all of our technology leadership is making this a better and better product. Now the net adds, obviously tell you that's the truth. But the other place I always go to instead of all of us growing is what is the customer telling us from an NPS perspective. T-Mobile's fixed wireless NPS the latest one as of Q2 is higher than any other category of -- that not just cable, any other category. And that over a 50 NPS score on this. That tells you that this is a durable product that customers love, that's going to be here for the long term, and that's why it makes us excited about our continued aspirations of hitting that goal.
That's a great place to end and look forward to hearing more very soon from you guys and connecting as well. So Peter and Jon, thank you so much for coming out, and thank you all for attending.
Thank you so much.
Thank you.
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T-Mobile US — Bank of America 2025 Media
T-Mobile US — Bank of America 2025 Media
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: T‑Mobile betont starke operative Performance: Kerngeschäft läuft besser als erwartet, UScellular-Deal ist geschlossen und wird beschleunigt integriert – Management sieht klare Synergie- und ARPA-Wachstumstreiber bei disziplinierter Kapitalallokation.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- U.S. Cellular: Deal geschlossen; Synergieerwartung angehoben auf $1,2 Mrd. Run‑Rate, davon ~$250 Mio. CapEx; Ziel: Exit‑Run‑Rate binnen 2 Jahren (statt 3–4).
- Kerngeschäft: Fokus auf „best value, best network“ führt zu höheren Wechselgewinnen, starkem ARPA‑Momentum; Handelbares Promotionsumfeld beeinträchtigt die Nachfrage kaum.
- Produkt & Partner: Kabel‑MVNO für Mikro‑KMU, Metronet/Lumos‑Integration für T‑Fiber (100.000 Nettoeinstellungen in 2024 erwartet) und klare Enterprise‑Fokusbereiche.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Synergien: Detaillierte 8‑K‑Angaben: $1,2 Mrd. Synergien, schnellerer Zeitplan durch Sprint‑Learnings und AI‑gestützte Site‑Retention/Decommissioning.
- Guidance: Management bestätigt mindestens 3,5% ARPA‑Wachstum auf das Core‑Business; Q3‑Akzeleration erwartet und UScellular‑Akzretion wird punktuell quantifiziert.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Synergie‑Detail: Nachfrage nach konkreten Sprint‑Lessons (Customer‑driven coverage, schnellere Billing‑Migration) — Management lieferte operative Beispiele, blieb aber strategisch fokussiert.
- Marktumfeld: Themen: Promotions, höheres Switching, Immigration‑Risiken (kein aktueller Impact) und Preiselastizität — Firma sieht Nachfrage nach Mehrwert statt reiner Preissensitivität.
- Spectrum & FWA: Warum 600/3.45 nicht gekauft/weiterverfolgt wurde (Wert‑/Coverage‑Abwägung); FWA‑Ambition bestätigt (Ziel 12 Mio. FWA‑Subs bis 2028), hohe NPS und gesteigerte Nutzung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Relevanz: Für Aktionäre signalisiert das Event eine Kombination aus beschleunigter Deal‑Execution (UScellular), robustem organischem Momentum und disziplinierter Kapitalpolitik. Kernaussage: Wachstum und Margenhebel sind intakt; größte Risiken bleiben Wettbewerbsintensität im Promotionsumfeld und die Umsetzung der beschleunigten Integrationspläne.
T-Mobile US — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Cathy Yao, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for T-Mobile U.S. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Welcome to T-Mobile's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Joining me on our call today are Mike Sievert, our President and CEO; Srini Gopalan, our COO; Peter Osvaldik, our CFO; as well as other members of the senior leadership team.
During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. We encourage you to review the risk factors set forth in our SEC filings. Our earnings release, investor fact book and other documents related to our results as well as reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP results discussed on this call can be found on our Investor Relations website.
With that, let me now turn it over to Mike.
Okay. Cathy, thank you. Thanks for keeping us out of trouble over there. Great job. Welcome, everybody. Thanks for being with us. Good afternoon. We're coming to you live from Bellevue, today. We've got the whole team here, and we are excited to talk to you about our Q2 results and more importantly, to take your questions. And what a quarter it was.
Our results were in one word, if I had to pick one, fantastic. This team right here did it again, delivering the consistent, differentiated profitable growth that we are known for. We led the industry in both customer growth and in financial growth across multiple metrics. And more importantly, we smashed our own records. This was the greatest Q2 for growth ever in T-Mobile's storied history with the best Q2 postpaid phone that's ever, the best Q2 for total postpaid net additions ever and our best ever Q2 on gross additions, too, with both gross and total postpaid and both [indiscernible] and net, total postpaid adds up double digits year-over-year against a very strong 2024 comp.
Equally as exciting, our postpaid account nets also accelerated year-over-year, and we saw our postpaid share of households grow in every single cohort within the top 100 and of course, also in smaller markets and rural areas. And the momentum is continuing with share of port in leadership and overall customer momentum right where we want it. You may have heard others say that this is a highly competitive environment, and it is, but we love it that way, and we thrive in a dynamic environment like this one. Our results, including our value creation results in this dynamic environment simply speak for themselves. The quality of our customers continues to improve at a rapid pace with ARPA growth up over 5%, our highest growth in 8 years. Our customers are continuing to self-select up the rate card.
Here's a new stat for you. After launching our new rate plans in April, within that premium segment, we've been talking to you about, customers are loving our most premium tier within it more than ever. Selecting our new Experience Beyond plan at more than double the rate of Go5G Next just a year ago and up over 50% in just 1 quarter. Our business group continues to break growth records as well, leading the industry once again in net additions, and we are not standing still. Thus yesterday, we announced a new multiyear partnership with Cable to provide mobile service to small and mid-market businesses to supercharge our growth in an area where we have little exposure today in a true win-win.
The deal focuses our partners in the exact areas that would drive incremental revenue because our strongest T-Mobile branded growth comes, on the one hand, from the very smallest businesses transacting at retail, where we already compete with Cable and on the other hand, from large enterprises above 1,000 lines, which are not included in the deal. So while it's going to take some time for this to go into something meaningful, I'm super excited about their capabilities, generate growth in the SMB sector in a way that will be truly incremental for T-Mobile.
Okay. I want to spend a moment on something that I'm very passionate about, our network, America's best network. Over the last couple of years, we've seen a significant increase in the number of customers citing our network as the reason for switching to T-Mobile. And that's a great start, but the reality is most of our prospects don't yet know we have the best network. In fact, only about 20% of switchers in the broader market believe we do. This represents an enormous runway for us. Network perception has now become a major focus for us for a simple reason. There are massive opportunity from all of those tens of millions of customers who went elsewhere in the 4G era, deliberately choosing what was then the best network.
Well, there's a new best network in America. And you'll be seeing us bring that message to consumers and businesses in really innovative ways until every person in America has heard why there has never been a better time to join T-Mobile. And on the substance of our network leadership, we are on the move. We're continuously pushing across multiple strategies to widen our lead and cause the rest of the market to follow. That's why we're out there with greenfield builds having already lit up 1,000 sites year-to-date with a plan to bring on nearly 4,000 sites this year alone. That's why we build the first carrier [indiscernible] to things like nationwide 5G Advanced, automated slicing capabilities, and higher order carrier aggregation, and we won't stop. It's all about getting more and more performance for our customers from every capital dollar and every piece of radio spectrum. The result, our network lead continues to widen.
We're also shoring up our network in smaller market and rural areas with UScellular. With all required approvals now in place, I'm pleased to say that we plan to close the transaction and become one team next week on August 1. We can't wait to welcome UScellular customers to the T-Mobile family, the combination gives us an expected 50% or more increase in capacity in the combined footprint and our site coverage will expand by 1/3 from 9,000 to 12,000 sites. Taken together with the greenfield builds I mentioned earlier, the network experience in smaller markets and rural areas is being fundamentally transformed, just further fueling our ability to compete and grow in this space. And just this morning, we launched our groundbreaking T-Satellite service commercially, further extending our network to connect customers in the 500,000 square miles of this country that are not covered terrestrially by anyone and with a truly differentiated service.
Okay. Now let me turn over to 5G broadband. No surprise, given the strength of this product we delivered yet another stellar quarter. In fact, for the 14th straight quarter, we led the overall broadband industry in net additions. Double-clicking into it. T-Mobile for Business also led the industry this quarter, achieving our highest ever business 5G broadband net additions. Overall, both speeds and usage continue to rapidly grow, demonstrating the mainstream nature of this product, while satisfaction is as higher, higher than ever as seen in our record low churn.
Let's talk Fiber. Last month, we launched T-Fiber after completing our JV acquisition of Lumos in April and tomorrow, we plan to close our JV acquisition of Metronet. With both up and running under the T-Fiber banner in the second half, we are poised to deliver 100,000 or more Fiber nets on top of our planned 5G broadband nets this year. We are off to the races.
Let me spend a moment right now on our ongoing digital transformation. At Capital Markets Day, we shared an audacious transformation plan designed to meet customers where they are with breakthrough enabled sales and services experience breakthrough AI-enabled sales and services experiences and a step-change improvement in our business model at the same time. I'm here to tell you that we are more than on track. Look at how far we've come in such a short time.
A year ago, T-Life was just getting started. Our T-Life app now has over 75 million installs. And it's one of the most downloaded apps in the App Store. And it's a destination for tens of millions of customers to transact and access the incredible magenta status benefits that they love. As an example, a year ago, very few of our phone upgrades occurred digitally. Today, we've checked that box, about 2/3 of our consumer upgrades now occur via our app. And we're exiting Q2 with significant new momentum in digital ad aligns and turning next to new customer acquisition. I have never been more excited about the potential here for our customers and also for our business model.
Speaking of, let's talk financials. Our best-in-class customer results continued to drive industry-leading financial growth across key metrics yet again in Q2. Postpaid service revenues grew 9% year-over-year, an acceleration from Q1, and total service revenues grew 6%, a rate well over double that of our closest competitors. Our industry-leading core adjusted EBITDA growth was 6% year-over-year. We delivered $4.6 billion in adjusted free cash flow, a new Q2 record translating to, once again, industry-leading adjusted free cash flow conversion from service revenues of 26%.
Listen, what these results demonstrate overall it should come as no suffice. T-Mobile's industry-leading value proposition of best network, best value and best experiences is an exceptional combination. Our strategy is differentiated. It's durable, and it has tons of room to run. Not only do we see opportunity to deliver outsized growth in underpenetrated areas like smaller markets, T-Mobile for Business and broadband alongside smart new adjacencies. But as we solidify our network lead, we're also demonstrating that there's room to run among network seekers in the top markets where we're most established. There are growth opportunities everywhere we look. We have built these differentiated and durable advantages over time and with unwavering focus. This team sitting here in front of you looks around corners, and we show up every single day, ready to win, to win today and to win tomorrow. And we won't stop, we won't stop doing what's right by customers. We won't stop shattering the very records we set and we won't stop delivering against the lofty long-term ambitions that continue to set T-Mobile apart.
Okay. Peter, over to you to provide a quick update on our key financials and our guidance.
Perfect. Thanks, Mike. As you can see, we had a fabulous Q2, which underpins the confidence in our increased guidance. Before we jump into those updated full year expectations, I'll note they now reflect the inclusion of Metronet but exclude UScellular for which we will provide an update later after the close.
Okay, starting with customers. we are raising our total postpaid net additions expectations to be between $6.1 million to $6.4 million, an increase of $500,000 at the midpoint. Approximately 100,000 of the total will be fiber net additions. We are also increasing our expectation for postpaid phone net additions now expected to be between $2.95 million and $3.1 million, highlighting the great momentum we're seeing in the business. Both of these represent our highest ever customer guidance at this point in the year.
We also continue to expect strong postpaid ARPA growth of at least 3.5% for the full year as we see continued deepening of customer relationships, and we now expect 2025 service revenue growth of at least 6% for the full year. We now expect core adjusted EBITDA to be between $33.3 billion and $33.7 billion for the full year, an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range which includes funding our significantly increased total postpaid net additions expectation. As part of that, we expect Q3 core adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $8.5 billion as we accelerate investments into our business.
Okay. Turning to cash CapEx we continue to expect cash CapEx to be approximately $9.5 billion for the full year. We also expect adjusted free cash flow, including payments for merger-related costs in the range of $17.6 billion to $18 billion also representing an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range. I also wanted to touch on the upcoming close of the [indiscernible] venture transaction, which is acquiring Metronet. As with the Lumos joint venture, the consumer experience and residential business will be fully owned by us, and we will also share in 50% of the joint venture economics. We will treat the acquired customers as a base adjustment in our third quarter results, and as we fuel customer growth, we expect the retail business to be slightly accretive to service revenues while remaining neutral to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow this year.
Additionally, our 50% equity stake in the joint venture will be reported below the line as an equity method invested and is expected to be immaterial to net income this year. Next quarter, we will provide a more comprehensive update regarding the contribution of both of our fiber joint ventures.
Okay. Let me also spend a moment on the benefits from the recent legislation coming out of D.C. While this won't meaningfully impact our 2025 cash tax expectations, we do expect an approximately $1.5 billion benefit to cash taxes in 2026 which will be deployed thoughtfully guided by our capital allocation philosophy. And finally, I want to provide an update on the sale of our 800 megahertz licenses. We have reached an agreement with Grain Management to divest our entire portfolio of 800 megahertz licenses in exchange for a combination of $2.9 billion in cash, all of Grain's 600 megahertz licenses and have additional potential upside via participation in future proceeds Grain receives for monetizing the licenses after a minimum return to Grain. The transaction is anticipated to generate approximately $850 million in incremental income taxes following the close. But as a reminder, all of the net proceeds are incremental upside to the guidance we laid out for you at Capital Markets Day last year. We expect this transaction to close in the fourth quarter of '25 or the first quarter 2026.
Okay. To sum it all up, not only did our results continue to demonstrate our ability to consistently execute and deliver outsized and profitable growth, but we cannot be more excited to carry our strong momentum far into the future.
All right. And with that, I will now turn the call back to Cathy to begin the Q&A.
Thank you, Peter. Okay, let's get to your questions. [Operator Instructions] We will start with a question on the phone. Operator, first question, please.
And your first question today will come from John Hodulik with UBS.
2. Question Answer
Great. And 2, if I may. First, you guys saw strong sub growth in the quarter despite slightly higher churn. Could you just give us an idea, Mike, what we're seeing in the market today? How do you expect churn to sort of trend in the second half and what you're seeing just from a competitive standpoint?
And then number two, thanks for the disclosure on the fiber side, $100,000 for the year. Can you give us a little more color on that? Is that sort of a 50,000 run rate for the next few quarters? Or is that -- does that include some of the that we saw here in the second quarter? And just any other color you can give us on the sort of growth of that business either today or over time? And do you anticipate other opportunities to -- for some inorganic growth in that business?
Okay. Terrific. Thanks for the questions. Let me start with Srini on the competitive environment, although I'll invite anybody to jump in. And then we'll turn to Mike on fiber and what we can expect for the second half. So Srini what are we seeing out there?
Thanks, John. So a quick sense of the competitive environment. Firstly, we like the fact that it's a dynamic competitive market. As natural share takers, we enjoy these moments when there's more movement and more switching in the market. And part of that is our conviction that the fact that we win in these moments has far less to do with promotions. It has far more to do with the compelling proposition we have.
Now I've worked in a few different telco markets. And seldom do you see the kind of unicorn position where one telco or one provider is able to provide not just the best network, but also the best value and best experience, and that unique proposition is what really powers our ability to win in situations like this.
Talking about the market itself, this is a market where the dynamics of competition changes and evolves. So we go through periods where the focus is on rate plans. Currently, we're in a period where the focus is on device promotions. The reality is, even as the focus shifts to device promotions, there's kind of more spend upfront. But the CLVs we're generating are robust and pretty consistent with our history of CLVs. So this feels like a really good economic investment, and we feel very, very comfortable making that investment. I mean the driver to that is, yes, you have more outflow front in the device promotion but you get longer lifetimes, you get higher ARPUs. All of that comes together to make a solid and robust and dynamic environment, and we like the dynamic bit of it.
I think the last point I'd make on that is if we just lift out of kind of the dynamics of competition, shifting sands, how we compete and the rest of it. The reality is this is a great time to be in the U.S. wireless industry. As a customer, and as a participant. As customers in the last 3 to 4 years, we've seen customer speeds grow 3 to 4x. Data consumption grow 3 to 4x. And at the same time, customers have paid less in real terms for the product. And as an industry, we've seen a 50% growth in free cash flow, which is the one metric that really matters from a value creation perspective for the industry as a whole. So it's a really good time to be in wireless, and we're enjoying the dynamic nature of the competition.
Yes. I mean the only thing I'd add around, John, your question around churn is much as we foreshadowed, we anticipated Q2 to be up given the finalization of our rate plan optimizations. What we're anticipating going forward, if I think about Q3, sequentially, we anticipated being down, and year-over-year, probably flat to potentially slightly up, but we're through that heightened area of churn for us, and we're seeing great dynamics now. So that's probably the color around Q3.
Okay. Sounds great. [indiscernible], well said. Mike, you want to talk about fiber? What are we going to see in the second half?
Yes. So first of all, after a couple of years of being in pilot mode with T-Fiber, we officially launched last month both in the Lumos markets as well as our wholesale markets our T-Fiber. And it's been a few weeks, and so far, it's going great. And the thesis that we that we were excited about as we got into the Fiber business that our unique assets could help us penetrate markets. There's -- everything we've seen so far has reinforced that to us.
The 100,000 that Mike spoke about a second ago is coming both through the 2 JVs as well as the wholesale markets. The Metronet deal, of course, closes tomorrow. And we will commercially launch T-Fiber in those markets later this year. And so the 100,000 contemplates the combination of both the JVs as well as the wholesale markets.
In terms of the question about other inorganic, obviously, we continue to keep an open mind as you would expect us to about that. But the 100,000 is with the organic -- or the deals that we've closed that will all be closed as of tomorrow as well as the markets that we've already been operating with in wholesale.
One of the things we haven't talked about much is our overall go-to-market approach. And I just -- I love it so much. So we're obviously [indiscernible] in broadband. We've been the share-taking leaders in broadband for 15 quarters. And now we're able to add in many places across the country, T-Fiber to that. But it's on an infrastructure that already exists from a go-to-market standpoint. And we've been able to engineer an IT platform for T-Fiber that I think is just fantastically elegant because this will be a model that involves wholesale partners, as Mike just mentioned, JVs like Lumos and Metronet and possibly future JVs, all of whom can plug into a unified T-Fiber platform incredibly easily.
So it took us a while to get it done, but this thing is fantastic, and it really gives us terrific flexibility. When it comes to our ability to do what we do best, go to market and serve customers. So I'm really excited about it.
Thanks, Mike. Thanks, John. Operator, next question, please.
And your next question today will come from Benjamin Swinburne with Morgan Stanley.
Thank you. Good afternoon. Just reflecting back on your Capital Markets Day last September to now. One metric that really jumps out is the ARPA growth. I think you talked about 2% growth, the 2% plus last year over the kind of the 3-year planning period, you're up almost 5% year-to-date. Could you guys unpack a little bit of the drivers there and whether you're more optimistic about growth in that line and service revenue over the course of the next couple of years, just given the strength that you've seen?
And then like, I didn't think of you having doing a deal with the cable operators as a possible outcome on this call. But I wanted to ask you if you could spend a little more time on your strategy there and why you think it makes sense for T-Mobile and but the opportunity is long term around partnering with that industry going forward?
I love it. Well, we'll start with Peter on ARPA. And I think Ben is trying to be played. Are you sandbagging us here? What's going on?
Yes, and the multiyear arc. And what do you do? Look, much like we said at Capital Markets Day, our job is to put together a set of rational, aggressive assumptions and then go try to beat them. And I'm not here to start updating '26 or 2027, that's not the job. They'll come a time we'll have to layer in UScellular as well, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks.
But ARPA growth is definitely going fabulously well this year. And that's the underpinnings for both the service revenue increase, now at least 6%, but also the strength there of 3.5% this year. And of course, that does have to do in part with the rate plan optimizations that we executed on. And that's why you see a little bit of year-to-date versus year-to-date difference versus the second half because remember, we began those late in Q2 of last year. So you're kind of lapping right now the periods where we have this year, the benefit of 2 rate plan optimizations, the finalization of the first one in the very first one. And now we'll have the real true organic growth in the second half.
And what really is exciting, what underpins that as Mike highlighted in his prepared remarks, is just what we're seeing from a rate plan perspective. Customers are really appreciating the value that we're packing into the plans, combined with, of course, the best network and experience proposition and they're self-selecting up the tiers to our most premium tier at very exciting levels. So not here to update '26 and '27. Our job is to keep this momentum going in 2025. And and then thoughtfully update you when it comes later.
But we really didn't see this coming. I mean, Jon Freier and team just went out and found a way to connect customers to these value propositions. And I also think it underscores that customers are reacting to the incredible differentiation of T-Satellite, which is included in these upper end plans. But so whatever it is, great execution, great value proposition. It's a little bit of a surprise. We'll give you a couple of stats on this. We've been talking about the 60% of our loading being in these premium tiers, but that's multiple rate plans. And I said in my prepared remarks that at the high end of that, we've doubled it. What we've done is we've taken it from 10 to 20 of the 60, not as a denominator. So 10 to 20 and then another 40 more to make 60. So of the total pie. It's fantastic. And that we didn't really see that coming, to be honest.
So people are moving up even within premium to more premium because they want more of what T-Mobile has to offer, and I love that. And then obviously, the second half we're round tripping last year's rate plan changes. So it will be a little harder to deliver the same percentage gain. But nominally, we feel really great with where we are. So good.
You asked about Cable. Okay, quickly on Cable. I had a lot to say about it in my prepared remarks, I'll try not to repeat it. But look, I think this is just incremental. And we've chosen a segment, business SMB, where we really don't have a lot of exposure. As I said, we're kind of have a barbell business. We're way down in very small business where we already compete cable and we tend to be growing way up in enterprise, 1,000 and above. And we don't have a lot of market share nor win share in between. So it's just a great win-win where I think most of those revenues will come in and be completely incremental and that's just -- that's where we want to be.
It's not the start of something. I mean, this is a multiyear thing. I hope it grows over time to become something really big and special but the dynamics are different. People are asking us, well, does this mean you're stepping into consumer or something like that? And no, we're not interested in that because the dynamics are different in terms of the incrementality in our math. And what we love about these business segments that we focus the partners on is it's almost entirely incremental. So it's great for what it is. It will grow over time. I think, be really productive, but it's not the start of something that will open up new segments after that.
Your next question today will come from Sam McHugh with BNP.
You talked about only 20% of switches perceiving team is having the best network. And I guess that's increased over time. But what do you think you need to do to improve that? Is that meaning on advertising? What can [indiscernible] up even further? And then secondly, on the Cable [indiscernible], just to clarify, are they restricted from selling to certain subsets of the enterprise community, then they can't sell to a super large enterprise? Is that the right reason?
I'll start with the easy one. That is correct. So the deal limits our partners to 1,000 lines and below or below 1,000 lines to be specific. Let's go over -- let's do the first question and talk about brand, maybe ask for both Mike and Jon to talk about what it takes to convince people.
Yes. I mean here's the great news. Our own customers are convinced. And one of the things that we've seen happen over the last couple of years is T-Mobile customers already believe that they're on the best network. And the 20% stat that you just referred to are prospective customers looking at T-Mobile and the other providers and how they feel about us. And we look at 20% as a huge opportunity across every single geographic market in the U.S. And I think it's a combination of things to make them aware of this. Yes, advertising certainly will be a part of it, and you saw after our announcement last month, we did kick off a pretty significant campaign that was kind of multifaceted with both TV advertising, and you see it across our events like at the All-Star Weekend and Major League Baseball last weekend. So advertising certainly will be a big piece of it.
Experience will be a big piece of it. When you walk into the store or you go into the T-Life app, because customers will be able to see what kinds of experiences are derived using our network. But I think another huge piece of this is, the network leadership that we have is not a moment in time. This is -- we've known that we've had the best work for a long time. It was great to have third parties widely recognize that. But this is a lead that we intend to keep and to widen. So I think a big part of changing how customers perceive this is continuing to stay in the lead and expand our lead. And perhaps through this, and Ulf can talk a little bit more about that, too.
Well, I'd just say one thing, which is Callie and team keep landing some of the most high-profile large enterprise and government customers in this country. And they choose T-Mobile after they give everybody a try. And they're choosing us because we're the best and a lot of them now are standing up as third parties to talk about why they chose T-Mobile. And when you have some of the most respected brands and government organizations and first responders talking about their choice of T-Mobile, that kind of third-party endorsement is really, really powerful.
Yes. If I could add on to that, Mike. Key priority we launched in Q1 of this year. And we've seen double-digit growth in new accounts with key priority since launch. And you had the City of New York who shared the stage with us to talk about why they chose the best network. But we've also seen the City of Miami Police Department, the L.A. County Police or Fire Department, the City of El Paso, we're starting to see like the top 10 cities and first responders say, "Hey, this is a network that performs on the nation's first 5G Advanced, truly nationwide 5G slice in a way that there's just no other option for us." So I think that really speaks to the strength of what we've built.
Terrific. Can we cover that one?
Your next question today will come from Craig Moffett with MoffettNathanson.
Mike, you just talked about a moment ago, T-Satellite. I wonder if you could just dig into that a little bit and the contribution that it had to your ARPU growth and -- but also how it sort of changes the way you think about serving rural markets and customer segments? It sounds like it surprised even you with the kind of impact that it had on the market.
Well, Craig, I just love you. I could just count on you to ask -- we launched this thing at 8:00 this morning, and you're running a business update. I love it. And but you're right. I mean in the run-up to it, which is I think what your -- to be fair to you, what you're talking about, I think people have been choosing our higher-end rate plans, anticipating this launch during the beta period. Unfortunately, I can't unpack that for you, but our highest plan as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, are more popular than they've ever been. I do think an awful lot of how we will wind up monetizing this strategy will be through that kind of migration and selection within our rate plans. This is available to everyone at just $10 a month. That's also very appealing.
I can't -- I could be -- I'm willing to be wrong on this, by the way. I mean this is speculation at this point. But I think it's going to be really a popular catalyst to bring people into that deeper relationship with T-Mobile, which is just so great for us in so many ways because the more we can have that deep relationship, not only do they get T-Satellite but they unlock all kinds of other benefits of membership that are sticky and satisfying. So it has the chance to create this virtuous circle. You're going to have to check in with us later. I mean once we get a little more than 1 day of experience. But we're optimistic that we're going to be able to land this as a truly differentiated service that people notice and not just T-Mobile people, but AT&T and Verizon people, too.
Just based on what you learned in the beta period, does it change your thinking about the way you deploy your network assets in very rural areas?
No. not at all. And in fact, part of what I mentioned in my prepared remarks is we are on the build, 1,000 sites on air so far, on a plan we greenlit late last year with 4,000 total in our plan for this year. And maybe Ulf, you can talk about how we do this because we actually don't have a market-by-market methodology it's informed by our AI algorithms where we build and maybe talk about this 4,000 greenfield program that we have going on this year.
All right, Mike. Yes, we're incredibly proud of our network. And we not only intend to stay where we are. We think we are about 2 years ahead of competition on our network. We actually intend to extend this lead. And one of them is to make sure that every tower, every capital allocation we do go to the where it matters most for our customers. The way we're doing that is something that we internally call customer-driven coverage. We talked a little bit about that at our Capital Markets Day. But it's a way where we have millions and millions and millions of data points on experiences of real customers, both when they are on the network, falling off the network, doing things on everything they do. And we combine that with business outcomes and business metrics. And we let AI roll around in that and figuring out so we can stack rank every capital allocation, every tower upgrade we do every new tower that we put on the network.
That leads for us to build this year, which is just incredible. As you said, 1,000 so far, we're going up to 4,000 by the end of the year. And that is even without what we're adding with UScellular. So I think it's just going to be incredible for -- in terms of coverage. The capacity on the network is just incredible too. I mean we are running at 67% of our traffic on 5G at the moment. We have all that left in terms of converting spectrum over to 5G. So we have so much more room to run.
So Craig, while we don't direct this from a strategy standpoint to be smaller markets and rural areas to the premise of your question, generally, the algorithm right now is spinning out more rural areas. And so that's where most of this 4,000 build is. And by the way, the net incremental keep sites taking us from 9,000 in the UScellular footprint to about 12,000 are also principally mostly in smaller markets and rural areas.
And so as I mentioned in my remarks, taken together, that's a transformational all-in 1 year step change in our footprint of towers covering smaller markets and rural areas. And then to your point, you add on the differentiated service of T-Satellite, it's just about taking a network advantage and just stoking it. Part of what I believe deeply in business is that you build a great company, not just by addressing the things that aren't working, but figure out what is working and double down on it, stoke it. And right now, what's working for T-Mobile is taking share as the soap leader in smaller markets and rural areas, and we won't stop.
And your next question today will come from Jonathan Chaplin with New Street Research.
Thank you. So Mike, I'm wondering if you can give us an update on how many locations you pass in the Metronet and move off markets at the moment? And what penetration is on those assets? And then one tiny housekeeping question. I don't think you told us in the past what the cash tax expectation for '26 was. So I'm wondering what it is now that you get the $1.5 billion benefit in '26?
Okay. Great. We'll come to Peter for the second one. Let me start with Srini because although I don't know that we'll be to give you the point estimates, I'd love for you to talk about where this all leads us Srini in the fiber space because I think it's really important for people to understand.
Yes. So look, I think the broadband space as a whole is something we're hugely excited by. We're now the fifth largest ISP. We will, as Mike said in his prepared remarks, just this year, add 100,000 fiber net adds, mostly in the second half of the year. It's a business as a whole that we like, and it's a combination of FWA, which continues to be a fallow capacity business as well as investing in fiber where we like the economics. Now you put those together, and we're positioned to be a scale player in broadband because you know our number, 12 million FWA customers.
Now you put that in terms of the equivalent, if you were to look at fiber homes passed, right? Let's assume a 40% utilization that's the equivalent of 30 million fiber homes passed. Plus, we've already said on Lumos and Metronet, we intend to get to 12 million to 15 million households. So we're becoming the equivalent of 40 million to 45 million homes passed as a broadband player. And that's before we go make other investments, as we've said before, we're very open to looking at investments in fiber. They need to be the right investments, and we are anything we've shown our hand on this. We like pure [indiscernible] assets.
So as a whole, we really like this whole space of broadband. And we think there's a huge opportunity to drive equity value in this space. Mike, I don't know if you want to add any specifics on Metronet and Lumos right now where we are, given that it's...
We probably can get in the details of Metronet. But one of the things that really attracted us to both companies, and we certainly have seen this with Lumos is these companies are the best in the country at building greenfield fiber. And there's still a lot of places left to cover in this country where you can be first to market to fiber. And what we've seen so far from Lumos is they continue to be very successful at that, and we're very optimistic and we'll continue to see that with Metro and after we close tomorrow.
And during the pendency of the transaction, Metronet also outperformed their deal expectations in terms of what they would build. So we're arriving with a better penetration than we had hoped for when we first signed the deal. So we'll update you on actual build expectations after we actually own the assets, Jonathan, but we're -- hopefully, you can tell we're excited about the space.
And let me, on the last question, I'm going to have to disappoint you. I'm going to resist the urge to give you a pinpoint cash tax estimate for 2026 and primarily because, obviously, there's a lot of other factors to update in there, including UScellular closing and all the purchase accounting around that, the timing of the close of the 800 megahertz transaction. So for now, I'm going to resist it, but there'll definitely be a time to give a more comprehensive '26 update.
The [ OBBB ] versus the not [ OBBB ] is?
$1.5 billion benefit.
And it's great to see that coming in. Terrific. Okay.
And your next question today will come from Gregory Williams with TD Cowen.
First one is on your rural market share. A few years back on your Analyst Day, you noted a goal of reaching 20%, I believe, of the smaller markets. I think it was right around by 2025. Here we are in 2025, I'm curious what your market share is now and if it's reached that 20% where it could go and if UScellular changes that calculus as well?
Second question is just on the $1.5 billion benefit from the tax release bill. You said you deploy the capital thoughtfully so I was wondering if you can add more color to those words thoughtfully whether we think about M&A buybacks or network investment?
Okay. We'll start with Jon. Smaller markets and rural areas. How are we doing?
I'm going to try to like contain my enthusiasm for this question, Greg. I really appreciate the question. First, we're unbelievably excited about smaller markets, rural areas. Just for the first-time listeners here. The way we define this is outside everything else out of our top 100 markets. So this would be 140 million people, 50 million households, roughly 40% of U.S. and we're excited about it for 2 reasons.
Number one, we have surpassed 20% share of household in smaller markets and rural areas. So we have beat that goal that we set for you in 2025. We're really excited about that. This is our ninth consecutive quarter where we have been the leader in postpaid switching. And so we've been on a tear on this for a little bit more than a couple of years now. We're really excited about that. But the thing that excites us more is exactly to the premise of your question, is what the opportunity still is in smaller markets, rural areas with the addition of UScellular and all the assets, the complementary spectrum, the sell-side assets, et cetera, that we will be implementing into our network and the thousands of greenfield sites that are coming into the network as well.
And so we have this huge opportunity still. Like we're doing all sorts of things as you would expect in terms of network investment distribution and investment community investment. We just kicked off Friday night, 5G lights for the second year in a row in smaller markets and rural areas. We're having a lot of fun with that as well, and they have a so much more tailwind that we expect into this business. And I don't think anybody ever thought that we would hit 20% and pack up our tent and go back home to New York City. We're going to stay in here and continue to drive this business to our fair share of the market, maybe even outside fair share of the market. So we'll have more to say after we close the UScellular transaction give you a little bit more of an update in terms of what we're up to, but we're incredibly excited about our progress so far and even more progress to come.
But you're asking the $1 million, $1 billion question, Greg, which is where could it all go? And I'd love to be able to answer that for you today. And it's something we think a lot about. We don't know, but I'll tell you this, our current win share without even all the advantages that we believe we can build to further accelerate in these areas is way higher than that 20% household share. And so if nothing improves, you would expect it to normalize over time to a market share way higher.
Now in places we've been successful for a long time. There are places we have market shares way, way higher than our national average. And so it's really about can we deliver the advantages that we think are really going to be required to be long-term market leaders in smaller markets and rural areas. Will our digital transformation strategy speak particularly well to people that live further away from retail. Will our ongoing improvements in network, including our merger with UScellular, make a step change in our competitiveness? Will our T-Satellite capabilities, which really only are a differentiator if you fall off our network. Will they disproportionately benefit people who live closer to the edge of cellular networks that is people in rural areas. We don't know the answers to all these, but theoretically, there are reasons to believe that over the long haul, we could become more successful in this subsegment of the market than we are today in the top 100 markets. So when I use phrases like room to run, I'm serious about it.
Yes. And on the -- I think the benefit, again, the $1.5 billion question, I guess, so to speak, is again, we're going to be guided the thoughtful and very consistent capital allocation methodology that we have. But let me give you a couple of ideas, one is the 800 megahertz that I projected for you in prepared remarks. And when that closes, that generates $850 million of taxable expense for us. That means about a net $2 billion benefit incremental to what we laid out at Capital Markets Day on this $1.5 billion.
One of the things we're, of course, looking at as we close UScellular and can look and deeply assess all the data, are there opportunities to accelerate? Remember what we gave you was $1 billion of synergies on a 3- to 4-year time frame with associated costs to achieve of about $2.2 billion to $2.6 billion. Is there an opportunity here for us to accelerate some of that from 3 to 4 years? Pull some of that cost to achieve in and deliver even more value and NPV of those synergies earlier. So those are the kind of things we're investigating now but it's not time to break that 2026 spreadsheet open yet and send it out my way, in your way, but please, we'll definitely be thoughtful about it.
But it's interesting you give those examples because they follow your long-established capital allocation philosophy, right? Peter has been very clear, we peg our leverage at 2.5 that's our current board authorized leverage, and that's where this management team wants to be. That gives us a capital envelope and within that capital envelope, we invest first in our core business. You just mentioned maybe highly accretive opportunities in our core that we could move faster. Then we invest in smart adjacencies and potential inorganic investment opportunities, and then we return capital to shareholders.
And we've been following this philosophy, I think, very successfully for a while. So you tumble right away to some of these potential things that could allow us to unlock even more value faster for our shareholders but it's too early to tell. We'll only put the money in them if they're a better idea than not.
Thank you, Greg. Operator, next question, please.
Your next question today will come from Michael Rollins with Citi.
A couple of questions on 5G broadband and FWA. First, just curious what you're seeing that's driving the ongoing momentum in that volume. How much of that quarterly volume may be benefiting from greater breadth of coverage versus deeper penetration in some of the existing markets? And then secondly, are you seeing evidence that FWA may move from a fallow capacity model to one which you can invest in specific capacity enhancements for additional growth and returns over time?
Sounds good. Well, it's moving at most of all, Michael, is word of mouth. I mean this is -- the satisfaction rates of this product are through the roof. People love it. And they're pretty surprised and delighted at the performance. I mean the average user using like 560 gigs that's up 25% from just 2 years ago. They're getting speeds in the 200, 250 megabits per second national average that's up 50% from 2 years ago. They love those sort of the flexibility of this product, the elegance and simplicity of it and they tell everybody when they sign up because they get this great mainstream product and they save money. And so that's what's really driving it. I forgot the second part of the question.
[indiscernible]
Yes, you want to talk a little bit about the strategy there Srini?
Yes. So the way I think of it is our center of gravity is very much the fallow capacity model. Now we're looking at whether other models work or not. But one of the reasons that's our center of gravity is I think one myth is that to some extent, mobile technology is static. The reality is with each passing days especially with our 5G SA network we're finding more and more opportunities to squeeze more out of our existing spectrum out of our existing towers. Now there's a lot of work still to be done, but we're constantly challenging every day our $12 million number and looking at how much more we can squeeze from our network in terms of fallow capacity. I mean just some of the recent examples like the introduction of [indiscernible], which is lowly right? Innovations that we're bringing in with 5G SA are allowing us to squeeze more all the work we've done on business right, where we're finding newer opportunities to extract more out of our fallow capacity model. So that remains priority one.
So it's really interesting. I mean we've been pretty clear. We have this $12 million customer target in 2028. It's entirely predicated on the fallow capacity model. And we have our teams hard at work in a dual strategy. Number one, can we get more out of the fallow capacity model through all the tactics that Srini just summarized. And number two, to the very premise of your question, are there smart ways to allocate capital and get a fantastic return? Look, we don't have answers to either of those 2 questions. But are our teams thoughtfully working on those things? Absolutely.
Your next question today will come from Kutgun Maral with Evercore ISI.
I have one high-level question. Going back to the 2021 Analyst Day and for maybe a few years afterwards. Part of the narrative was that you were increasingly mindful of T-Mobile's role evolving from being an insurgent to more of a steward of the industry. And while you'd continue to push for competitive pressure and execute as on carrier, perhaps greater consideration of not only your leadership position in the space but also the merits of helping to ensure it remains a profitable and an attractive one.
Maybe fast forward to today, competition isn't new, but the offers in the marketplace keep getting more and more aggressive and some of your peers are perhaps acting more and more on carrier-like. So with all that context, can you update us on where you view T-Mobile as being on the insurgent versus steward spectrum? And I guess, ultimately, how much more runway is there to be as disruptive without the tilt in competitive postures disrupting the balance for the broader industry?
That's a fantastic question. And if you were listening to Srini a few minutes ago, I think what I take away from your comments, Srini, is that this is a highly competitive moment in time. Yes, and we like it that way that's due to the competition that we constantly bring as the fighter brand, the value brand. And at the same time, one of the things you've noticed about us as the insurgent, as the net share taker and value leader in this industry is that we have been remarkably consistent in how we've gone about that, as the on carrier.
One of the things that Peter gets a lot when he's asked about our performance is, why didn't you take more? Could you have taken more? This all-time record Q2 on postpaid phone net additions is great, but why not more? And what we -- and your answer to that has always been we thoughtfully keeping things in balance. We compete and compete hard and try to break our own records and we bring the competition to this marketplace. But at the same time, we're building a company of lasting value, a profitable company and that's a tone that's not new for us. That's years old at this point and the premise of your question, that's not going to change.
To your question of does this strategy have runway? Absolutely, because it's not about anything other than leveraging long-term durable advantages built on a superior notion of what customers are looking for. They want the best network in this industry. They wanted to add a great value and they want it from a company that treats them right and loves them, that delivers the best experiences as Srini was saying. And that's what we deliver uniquely, and we've thoughtfully built long-term durable advantages in these areas and keep going. And so I've never seen a moment in our history where the strategy we're employing has more room to run than right now. And I think we're demonstrating that as we go.
The last thing I'll say is I take a little exception with one premise of the question, just for fun, which is that it's -- that we're seeing unprecedented investment in competition from everybody right now. And look, if you add it all up, right now, the financial metrics being delivered in the industry wouldn't support that. T-Mobile as the value leader, for example, is delivering 26% conversion of cash against service revenues. That's just a phenomenal number and near the high end of our historic business model, And we think it's a tremendous number for us as we continue to progress. And so the show -- overall, by the way, as Srini mentioned, cash flow since 2022 are up 50% in our industry while the customer is experiencing more data at faster speeds than ever before for the same real pricing. That means the customers are huge beneficiaries of the 5G revolution, but so are the competitors.
The nature of competition shifting. Are there unprecedented device promotions out there? Absolutely. But on the other hand, ARPUs are also higher than they've ever been. And device ownership is longer than it's ever been. So these things offset each other. And one way to look at it is customer lifetime values, which at T-Mobile have been remarkably consistent. I hope that context is helpful.
So we'll switch over to social now and take one final question from the phone queue after. But this is from Chetan Sharma. Congrats on your continued momentum with new services and network features. I was wondering if you could please provide some commentary on the interest demand you see -- are seeing from enterprises for slicing and T-Satellite. What is the profile of such customers and use cases?
Which go over to Callie.
Sure thing. Well, I mentioned earlier before in responding to you, Mike, about key priority and just how fantastic it's resonating with first responders in the marketplace. Since we launched in Q1, we're up double digits in growth in new accounts, which is fantastic. We're also seeing the opportunities in our beta to use T-Satellite with first responders, also with state and local municipalities who when you think of a bus driver that couldn't get in touch with the parents when there was an emergency on the bus. And this really unlocks the value for both the public sector as well as in enterprises where we start to see people use cases like oil and gas, when they're out doing operations that require connectivity in places that are in that 500,000 square miles that are untouched by any carrier where businesses actually do operate. So we see a lot of runway and potential in that space in our business.
Just to mention in Q2 overall, when you think about enterprise, we think about what the capabilities of our network unlock for us. This quarter in Q2, we led the industry in business in postpaid nets, in postpaid phone, in 5G broadband nets and in postpaid churn. And so it was a really excellent quarter for us to really see the momentum. And we still have plenty of room to run. When I think about 5G broadband and the use cases for fixed wireless and enterprise. We see national retailers that are coming to us and saying, "Hey, a point-of-sale system slice as well as a fixed wireless solution across the United States is a fantastic use case." So welcomed like Casey's General Stores, a national retailer that really needed a value provider that also was an incredible experience for those stores.
So and I'd also just mention too, these type of solutions are helping us to deliver win share that is greater than our market share in every single segment. I'll say one more thing. You heard some of our competitors talk about how they were impacted in the government segment with Dodge. And I don't think any of us are surprised to hear that because these are the older incumbents that have a majority share. But for us, what drives my business is win share. And our win share is up year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. And so we're really able to sit down with decision makers, especially in federal agencies who are perhaps seeing some kind of demand to lower cost or may we have some headcount demand. When they do a bill review and they look at the value that our network provides and they look at the best network that they can move to they're able to come up with efficacy and efficiency as they're sorting through some of the requirements that they have to...
We thought Jon was going to be the most exciting. So by the way, while we're on slicing [indiscernible] and one thing that I think is interesting is this is a sort of a classic win-win because our network doesn't really congest and we're the least congested network out there. We have most capacity like by a wide mile. And so you might think why slicing? But enterprises nonetheless, are highly interested in it because what they want is guaranteed service levels. And depending on the criticality of those connections, it's worth paying for so that we can guarantee them in an unanticipated situation where in the future, something could cause the network to congest that they would be able to have those service levels for mission-critical connectivity that benefits them, but also in the case of first responders, benefits us all. And they're willing to pay for that. So that's really interesting learning.
And if you don't mind, on a more serious note, while I'm on it because we were talking about T-Satellite. I just do want to acknowledge that -- it once again played an important role during those horrific floods in Texas, a few -- a couple of weeks ago. And first of all, I'm so proud of our team on the ground rushing into help, keeping the network going and performed beautifully. But also, we were able to transmit emergency messaging to customers, not just T-Mobile customers but all customers via satellite that were received. And also on the ground, over 0.25 million text messages went out over satellite during the most critical moments of this emergency and people were able to be connected when it matters. And I'm just so proud of that and really thankful for our teams on the ground. So I just wanted to shout out to our wonderful team in Texas and say thank you to them.
Operator, we'll take our final question from the queue.
And your next question today will come from Kannan, pardon me, Venkateshwar with Barclays.
Thank you. Mike, maybe just one question on the build ambitions for broadband. When you think about fixed wireless, obviously, all your peers offer it. But when you think about the wireline side of it, your peers have between $40 million to $70 million kind of build ambitions or existing scale if you think about the cable companies in that mix. So when you think about your goals of $15-ish million in wireline, why is that enough? And I know you want to look at more fiber opportunities. But given your -- the scale of your peers, would this call for maybe consideration of some bigger transactions or bigger opportunities to scale up your network faster than you would otherwise.
Yes, it's a great question. Maybe Srini, I can kind of take it together. We're interested in ongoing transactions. But probably if the premise of your question is something like are we interested in cable, I become decreasingly interested in that over time. I just feel like the growth is in fixed wireless, where there's value and flexibility and the growth is in fiber because it's a superior product. And that seems to be where the customer sentiment is going.
So we want to be where the puck is going to be. I'm so proud of the choices we've made so far. And what's driven us in these choices has been our ability to, one, deliver a fantastic product customers will love. And two, deliver a superior return for our shareholders in doing so. And I want to make sure that we don't chase scale for scale sick that we actually chase scale because we can deliver a fantastic return because our premise is a little different than some others who are on a race regardless of consequences, we're in this business to deliver a great product and make money, superior returns by virtue of our know-how and investments in mobile. And that's because our premise about how this market is coming together. It's just a little different. Our view is that mobile is the considered sale, and we're going to add products to that mobile that makes sense for our customers and that we can make money on.
Now as Srini explained a minute ago, our already published plans get us to knocking at the door of 45 million homes passed equivalent in wireline language through the strategies we've already announced. And as we've said, we have some ongoing appetite should the right opportunities present themselves at a fair value.
Yes. And the only thing I'd add to that, Mike, is also culture, right? Which is we're about great returns, but we're also about challenging the industry for the good of the customer and growth, right? And that ethos fits very nicely with FWA, that fits very nicely with fiber. The last thing we want to be is be an incumbent, right? We are all about challenging an industry, about creating value for customers, about smashing customer problems. And that's a big part of this calculus as much as returns as well.
I love that. It's a great place for us to end where I ended in my prepared remarks. This team right here at this table sees growth opportunities everywhere. And on your behalf, we're going to be thoughtful investors and the resources of this company to go chase it and chase it ambitiously. And thanks, everybody, for joining our Q2 call.
Thanks, Mike. That's all the time we have for questions. Thanks, everyone, for joining. We're looking forward to connecting with you again soon. If you have any additional questions, you may contact the Investor Relations or Media Departments. Thank you.
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T-Mobile US — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
T-Mobile US — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatzwachstum: Postpaid-Service-Umsatz +9% YoY; Gesamte Service-Umsätze +6% YoY.
- Profitabilität: Core adjusted EBITDA (bereinigtes EBITDA-Kern) Wachstum +6% YoY; Jahresprognose jetzt $33,3–33,7 Mrd.
- Cashflow: Adjusted Free Cash Flow $4,6 Mrd. in Q2; FCF‑Conversion ~26% der Service-Umsätze.
- Kunden: Bestes Q2 für Postpaid‑Nettozugänge; Guidance angehoben auf 6,1–6,4 Mio. Total Postpaid; Postpaid‑Phone 2,95–3,10 Mio.
- ARPA: ARPA (Average Revenue Per Account) YTD >5%; für 2025 erwartet man mindestens +3,5%.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Netzführung: Massive Investitionen (4.000 Greenfield‑Sites geplant 2025, UScellular‑Integration erwartet 1. Aug. Close im Call) und Marketing zur Verbesserung der Netzwahrnehmung.
- Breitband & Fiber: T‑Fiber-Launch nach Lumos‑JV; Metronet‑JV schließt kurzfristig — Ziel: ≥100.000 Fiber‑Nets 2025 zusätzlich zu 5G‑Broadband.
- GTM & Digital: Digitaler Push (T‑Life >75 Mio. Installs) und neue Tarifstruktur → Kunden wählen vermehrt Premium‑Tiers; Partnerschaft mit Kabelanbietern für SMBs.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Kunden: Total Postpaid Net Adds 6,1–6,4 Mio.; Postpaid‑Phone 2,95–3,10 Mio.; ~100k der Adds aus Fiber.
- Finanzen: Service‑Revenue Wachstum ≥6% für 2025; Core adjusted EBITDA $33,3–33,7 Mrd.; Cash CapEx ≈ $9,5 Mrd.; Adjusted FCF $17,6–18,0 Mrd.
- Steuern & Deals: Gesetzliche Änderung -> ~ $1,5 Mrd. Cash‑Steuervorteil in 2026; Verkauf 800 MHz erwartet $2,9 Mrd. + Tausch 600 MHz; Close Q4'25–Q1'26 potenziell.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Churn & Wettbewerb: Höheres Q2‑Churn erwartbar nach Tarifoptimierung; Management sieht Wettbewerb über Geräte‑Promotionen, bleibt aber überzeugt von CLV‑Robustheit.
- T‑Satellite & Netz‑Wahrnehmung: Management betont starke frühe Nachfrage und mögliche ARPA‑Effekte, verweigerte aber konkrete kurzfristige ARPU‑Aufschlüsselung.
- Kapitalallokation: Anleger fragten nach Verwendung des $1,5 Mrd. Effekts; Management bleibt bei priorisierter Reihenfolge: Netz, adjacencies, M&A selektiv, dann Rückführungen; keine genaue 2026‑Cashsteuer‑Prognose gegeben.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Kernaussage: Sehr starke operative Dynamik: Rekord‑Nettozugänge, beschleunigtes ARPA‑Wachstum und hohe FCF‑Conversion stützen erhöhte Guidance. Wichtige Treiber sind Netzinvestitionen, T‑Satellite, Ausbau von Fiber/JVs und gezielte SMB‑Partnerschaften.
Finanzdaten von T-Mobile US
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Basis
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 90.530 90.530 |
9 %
9 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 33.802 33.802 |
13 %
13 %
37 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 56.728 56.728 |
7 %
7 %
63 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 21.848 21.848 |
13 %
13 %
24 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 32.955 32.955 |
4 %
4 %
36 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 13.898 13.898 |
9 %
9 %
15 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 19.057 19.057 |
1 %
1 %
21 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 10.543 10.543 |
12 %
12 %
12 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
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Firmenprofil
T-Mobile US, Inc. bietet drahtlose Kommunikationsdienste unter den Marken T-Mobile und MetroPCS an. Sie bietet drahtlose Sprach-, Nachrichten- und Datendienste auf Postpaid- und Prepaid-Basis sowie drahtlose Großhandelsdienste an. Das Unternehmen wurde 1994 gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Bellevue, WA.
aktien.guide Basis
| Hauptsitz | USA |
| CEO | Mr. Gopalan |
| Mitarbeiter | 75.000 |
| Gegründet | 1994 |
| Webseite | www.t-mobile.com |


