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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 808,13 Mrd. kr | Umsatz (TTM) = 1,03 Bio. kr
Marktkapitalisierung = 808,13 Mrd. kr | Umsatz erwartet = 1,19 Bio. kr
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 924,00 Mrd. kr | Umsatz (TTM) = 1,03 Bio. kr
Enterprise Value = 924,00 Mrd. kr | Umsatz erwartet = 1,19 Bio. kr
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Equinor Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
37 Analysten haben eine Equinor Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
37 Analysten haben eine Equinor Prognose abgegeben:
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aktien.guide Basis
Equinor — Analyst/Investor Day - Equinor ASA
1. Management Discussion
It is good to see you all and a pleasure to welcome you to Equinor's Capital Markets Day, both those of you who are here in the room with us at New York Stock Exchange and those of you who follow us virtually. My name is Bård Glad Pedersen, and I am the Head of Investor Relations in Equinor.
Let me start with a few safety instructions. There are no emergency drills planned for today. So if an alarm goes off, please follow the instructions of the safety personnel through the speaker systems and through the safety delegates who are here together with us. And also, please take note of where the exits are marked. Then I also want to remind you that the presentations today are subject to forward-looking statements. They are included in the slide deck. Then turning to the agenda for the day. We will have presentations from our CEO, our CFO and several members of the executive team. This will be followed by a Q&A session where it will be possible to ask questions both here in the room and for analysts on the call. After the Q&A, we will have a lunch break and participants here at the stock exchange is invited to join also for breakout sessions with the executive team and to the closing bell ceremony. Then I think we are ready to start with the program.
And we will do, as we often do in Equinor, we will start with a safety moment. And I would like to hand the floor to Camilla Salthe, our Executive Vice President for Safety, Security and Sustainability.
So please, Camilla, the floor is yours.
Thank you.
Thank you, Bard, and good morning. Let me have a short safety moment for you. So for us, safety and security start with people. But being a reliable energy provider also means protecting our critical infrastructure in a complex and volatile world. And that requires 3 things: experience, collaboration and innovation. First, experience matters. Our offshore and onshore facilities, including pipelines, are a vital part of the energy supply. We have worked for decades to ensure safe operations of this. This is core competence for Equinor. We have further strengthened our security, building on our experience, learning from incidents and also strengthen the physical preventive and response capabilities across physical, cyber and hybrid threats.
Second, collaboration is essential. No company can do this alone. We have close collaboration with authorities and partners across the world. And Norway has come far on collaboration, industry and authorities working side by side, sharing information, training together and building resilience through trust. And third, we invest in innovation. We are constantly improving and are developing solutions that strengthen our barriers and improve our situational awareness and increase our resilience. We invest in technology that identify potential threats faster, making us in a position to protect our critical infrastructure even better. From seabed to space, we use sensors, AI and drones to get better monitoring and insight to have faster response. An example is that we use AI to track vessel speed and turning patterns around our subsea infrastructure. And if it indicates an unusual behavior, an alarm will go off and we can actually act early.
So summing up, protecting critical infrastructure takes experience, collaboration and innovation. And that is how we ensure safe and secure operation, reliable supply and long-term value creation. Thank you for the attention. And before welcoming Anders up on stage, we will show you a video.
[Presentation]
First of all, thank you very much, Camilla. Good morning. It's really good to see you all, and welcome, and thank you for coming, both you virtually and also you here in New York. I have really looked forward to show you how we have fundamentally improved our company and how we will continue to do so, high-grading our portfolio, driving efficiency, growing production and improving profitability. In parallel, geopolitics and markets have shifted, making our role as a provider of reliable energy more important and valuable than ever. Today, we are really excited to show you how this comes together in a clear strategy and a compelling investment case. More energy, growing cash flow, superior returns to 2030 and beyond.
Okay. Let's get started. Our strategy builds on our unique competitive advantage to deliver reliable energy for a world in transition. We are changing the way we work on the Norwegian continental shelf to maximize value. We do this from a strong position in a prolific low-risk basin that we know better than anyone. We continue to deliver focused growth in international oil and gas with large-scale projects in execution. We are deepening our position in some of the world's most attractive oil and gas provinces. We build an integrated power business in markets we know well with existing trading, gas deliveries and customers. Our energy production is tied together by our trading activities, increasing value uplift and market orientation across all value chains. We expect more energy, growing cash flow, superior returns.
This is a robust basis to deliver competitive and predictable distribution to shareholders, a clear commitment from me and the Board. Within capital allocation, the cash dividend is our first priority. We aim to steadily grow it with more than 5% per year. We are doubling this year's share buyback to $3 billion based on strong cash flow. We also introduced a more predictable framework with annual share buyback between $2 billion and $4 billion starting 2027. This Capital Markets Day marks the 25th anniversary for our listing in Oslo and New York. Our performance in the past gives me confidence in our ability to deliver also in the future, a strong improvement in safety, a doubling our production, industry-leading in low CO2 intensity. Since the listing in 2001, this has created best-in-class returns. 17% return on capital employed and total shareholder returns of almost 1,800%.
On the Norwegian continental shelf, we have consistently beaten expectations. In any given year since 2001, you could look up external forecast for the NCS, and they will predict a sharp decline in the years to come. We have proven the prediction wrong time and time again, and we are confident that we will continue to do so. Why? External forecasts do not account for our systematic improvements, the hard work from our people to find more resources, apply new technology, identify new ways of working, improve recovery rates, maintained strong production. We have also successfully turned around our international portfolio. We have divested declining assets, focused our footprint and created a business delivering 80% growth in cash flow from operation. In total, $20 billion in free cash flow towards 2030 in a medium price scenario of $70 long-term oil. The actions we have taken position us well for what we see in the global commodity markets. First, geopolitics have shifted priorities towards affordability and security. The world needs reliable energy, which balances energy security, affordability and decarbonization.
Second, demand for oil and gas is expected to be higher for longer. We can help meet demand and create value from both our NCS position and our international portfolio. And third, power demand is increasing even faster than assumed just a few years ago. More intermittent renewables creates opportunities for a profitable integrated power business. Let's take a closer look at what we see in the European gas market. Before the 2022 energy crisis, prices reflected that pipe gas from Russia was the largest source of supply, now LNG dominates the mix. Over time, prices will have to reflect the cost of producing and bringing U.S. gas as LNG to Europe and global competition for LNG will set the price for gas in Europe. With a well-established pipeline network and very cost and carbon-efficient production in Norway, we can bring natural gas to Europe with average all-in cost of supply below $2 per MMBtu. Damages to the LNG infrastructure in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, situation further tightened supply, both in the short term and towards 2030. Prediction of previous predictions of oversupply have been revised and delayed. European dependency on LNG will continue towards 2035 and beyond. We have actively built the business from a unique competitive position as the largest energy supplier to Europe, focusing our portfolio around what we are good at. From our offshore experience in Norway, we have built a strong footprint in several world-class basins around the Atlantic.
Next, we have used our deep knowledge of developing gas markets in Europe to build a highly competitive gas position onshore here in the Eastern U.S. in a region where power demand is rising, in part driven by the data center boom. Brazil will be our next gas market. We also build an integrated power business in markets we know well, like the U.K. and Poland. We leverage our asset base, trading capabilities and gas position to provide a broad and reliable energy offering. In sum, a unique portfolio with low risk, low cost, low carbon in very attractive markets. Let me turn to cash generation and capital allocation. We have high-graded our investment program, focusing on the most profitable opportunities. We plan for $11 billion to $13 billion in organic CapEx per year towards 2030. Our priorities are clear, around 60% for NCS, 30% for international oil and gas and 10% for Integrated Power. This is expected to deliver 30% growth in cash flow from operations from 2025 to 2030. In 2030, we will be a stronger company based on our current portfolio and plans. A Norwegian continental shelf with high production for longer, highly profitable international oil and gas, self-funded integrated power business and a stronger earnings from trading. We're also maturing attractive future options. This gives me confidence to say that we expect to deliver CFFO growth also towards 2035. With growing CFFO, strong improvements and performance across the business and free cash flow of more than $40 billion towards 2030, we are also well positioned to continue delivering competitive capital distribution to shareholders.
This is important to me, and our track record is clear. Since 2022, we have remained disciplined and distributed around $54 billion to shareholders. The cash dividend is the foundation and our first priority in capital allocation. We will continue growing the quarterly dividend with more than 5% increase on an annual basis. We are confident about our plans and are today also presenting a more predictable framework for share buybacks. With oil prices between $60 and $80 and European gas between $7 and $11, you should expect annual share buybacks between $2 billion and $4 billion. Torgrim will share more details in his presentation. With this framework, we will make profitable investments to grow our business, maintain a robust balance sheet and deliver competitive and more predictable distribution to shareholders. After more than 50 years of oil and gas production, the Norwegian continental shelf is entering a new phase. We are building on our expertise, experience to transform our NCS business to become faster, safer and better. Ultimately, this is about creating more opportunities in the future.
We make more but smaller discoveries. We develop them faster. We extend the lifetime of existing fields. We already see a quicker pace. We have 2 2025 discoveries already in production. To facilitate standardization and more rapid project cycles, we will approve groups of projects in waves. We have already defined the first 3 waves of tieback projects. They will be sanctioned within the next 18 months, adding around 0.5 billion barrels to our reserve base. Tiebacks like this bring new resources to the market and extending lifetime of existing fields. Grane is an excellent example. The field was expected to close down in 2028. By connecting nearby discoveries like Breidablikk, we expect Grane to keep Grane going until 2060, extending the lifetime by more than 30 years. This is a life extension story that Grane shared with Norne,Oseberg, Statfjord, Gullfaks, Heidrun, Sleipner and the list goes on, also with Sverdrup and Karsto. This means that we today increase our production outlook for the NCS in 2030 and 2035 with 100,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day. Internationally, we have made a significant effort to improve our business, divesting and then reinvesting to create a more focused and profitable portfolio with more longevity. One example of this is our onshore portfolio in the U.S. through well-timed business development activities, it has become one of our most cash flow -- most robust cash flow generators, now on track to contribute around $5 billion in free cash flow towards 2030. We will also see production growth in regions like Brazil, U.K. and West Africa. The international projects currently in execution add high-value production and even stronger cash flow, 30% higher production, 80% growth in cash flow from operation.
With this, our international oil and gas business is expected to contribute around 50% of the company's free cash flow towards 2030. With the actions we have taken across our oil and gas portfolio, shifting gears on the NCS and focusing our international footprint, we expect a production increase of 150,000 barrels per day from 2025 to 2030. In parallel, we build a profitable integrated power business from combining our offshore mega projects with shorter cycle onshore projects together with power trading. We expect to increase power production to more than 20 terawatt hours by 2030 as already sanctioned projects comes on stream. With growing cash flow, we expect power to be self-funded in the period 2027 to 2030. For our marketing, midstream and processing business, we see an attractive value proposition in further improving our trading operations. Today, we leverage a world-class pipeline network, a significant shipping fleet and producing assets to create value from asset-backed trading. We see further value creation opportunities from scaling, warehousing more risk and doing more cross-commodity trading. This means we expect to grow operating income from trading by around 25% by 2030, and we maintain a significant upside potential depending on market conditions. The energy transition will continue to shape our industry and create business opportunities for Equinor.
We have industry-leading carbon efficiency through electrification, energy efficiency and other measures, we have decoupled oil and gas growth from emissions. We will continue to mature new business opportunities in CCS and other low-carbon technologies at controlled cost and be in position to scale when markets and customers are ready. On a day like this, we talk a lot about plans and percentages. but it is our people and how they develop and implement technology, which truly creates results. It is the imagination of our people that created a concept like Asgard Subsea Compression, which has increased recovery rates to 90% and has led to value creation of almost $20 billion. Our bright people now apply AI across our industrial processes. Our industry is the original big data industry. We have terabytes and even petabytes of seismic data, production logs and performance insights. We have invested in capturing and processing high-quality data we now feed into AI. For us, AI is fueling growth. Data centers demand energy, algorithms improve our production and our people continue to create value from technology.
Our people have also invested in the future of this company. With 20 million shares, our employees are our seventh largest shareholder group. Where I come from, a small industrial town in the very end of a Norwegian fjord, people are modest. But today, I can't hide how encouraged I am over what our people have achieved and how confident I am about what we are going to deliver. Our strategy and business plan outline what we believe is a compelling investment case. We will produce more energy, grow our cash flow and continue to deliver superior returns. Our track record shows what we can achieve. So thank you very much for your attention. And then I will welcome our CFO, Torgrim Reitan, to the stage.
So thank you very much, Anders, and good morning, everyone. Very good to see you here at the New York Stock Exchange, 25 years after we IPO-ed the company. I was part of the team that prepared the strategy and the targets and what we call it equity story at that point in time. And I must say it is a privilege to be here now and present to you how we are going to continue to create value for our shareholders. So we are going to talk a lot about 2030 and what's going to happen there. But I would like to start with 2026. It is a year with very strong operational performance. so far this year. We deliver record production. We deliver lower costs. So we are able to achieve higher prices based on higher production as such. This leads to a higher cash flow in the year. So we will use that, and we will use it wisely. We will strengthen our balance sheet this year. We will increase our investments into oil and gas by $1 billion, creating production growth in 2030, and then we will increase our shareholder distribution. So a little bit more details. At an $80 average oil price for the year, we expect a cash flow from operations of $25 billion. That is $9 billion more than we believed in the beginning of the year. So we no longer need to lean on the balance sheet this year, increase, we will strengthen it. Our net debt ratio is set to be reduced during the second half of the year, down from the 15% we had in the first quarter. Also, we increased oil and gas investments for '27 by $1 billion, and that goes to high-return projects in Angola and on the Norwegian continental shelf, supporting the production growth towards 2030. And finally, we doubled the share buyback for this year to $3 billion. After more than 30 years in the company, I know the importance of having a financial framework that is easy and that works through cycles at high prices and low prices. So a growing cash dividend, a growing cash dividend, that is our first priority when we allocate capital. And we expect to deliver more than 5% annual growth. Second, we will continue to invest into our business in high-value projects, and our investment program has been significantly high graded over the past years. So now we get more out of each dollar that we invest in this plan. And then third, we will protect the balance sheet. And our intention is to maintain a strong credit rating and to continue to run with a very solid balance sheet. But our balance sheet is a tool to create value, and you should expect us to strengthen it when prices are high, allowing us to continue to invest and continue to provide a competitive capital distribution when prices are lower. So therefore, we decide to retire the 15% to 30% net debt guidance that we have had in the past. And finally, we will continue to use our share buybacks to deliver competitive capital distribution. And today, we put forward a more predictable framework to you, and I will come back to this in a few moments. In our mid-price scenario, which is a $70 long-term oil, we expect to generate more than $40 billion in free cash flow. So this is after CapEx and after leases. This is driven by fundamental improvements in our business. We are transforming over the way we operate on the Norwegian continental shelf. We have high graded our investment program in EPI and Power, and we are improving efficiency and costs further. Our robustness to lower prices is even better. The cash breakeven after dividend and leases is around $50 per barrel. So this is an improvement of more than $10 per barrel, and it is clearly demonstrated the effect of the measures that we have taken. So having more than $40 billion in free cash flow, that creates a credible foundation for the capital distribution while maintaining a strong balance sheet. The free cash flow that we just discussed is supported by a 30% growth in cash flow from operations, up from $18 billion last year to $23 billion in 2030, and this will be on similar prices. So what you can see behind me here, you see the cash flows in the blue bars also showing price sensitivities. So a few points on that. Production will increase. But more importantly, the cash flow is growing 4x as much as production. reflecting the quality in the portfolio and the structural cost improvements. Cash flow in '27 and '28, as you see here, is impacted by tax lag effects. So if we adjust for that, it would be above $20 billion in both those 2 years. Then turning to CapEx, and that's the green bars. For '27, we increased our investments to oil and gas by $1 billion and expect a total CapEx of around $12 billion or around $10 billion after monetizing the tax credits from Empire Wind. From '28 to '30, we plan for organic CapEx of $11 billion to $13 billion, around 90% to oil and gas and around 10% to power. And you should expect us to be above the midrange if the commodity prices are high and there is a solid cash flow and there are high return opportunities.
At the same time, we have flexibility to reduce CapEx in a lower price environment. Our investment opportunities are clear. First priority is to maximize the value on the Norwegian continental shelf, where we expect to invest 60% of our investments. Second, 30% is directed towards focused growth in international upstream. And I just want to say, I do think that sort of the oil and gas projects really stands out. So to have a look at the numbers, 30% internal rate of return on average in that portfolio that is unlevered and is real return and breakevens below $40 per barrel. Beyond oil and gas, we plan to allocate around 10% to build an integrated power business. The investments in power will reflect a shift in our business model towards integrated power opportunities. So we will need to see more than 10% equity returns on the new power projects, and we aim for additional portfolio uplift.
And finally, I have to say I am very proud of the improvements delivered by our colleagues across the business, and that is what makes this possible. So let me move from the investment program to how we drive efficiencies across our company. Continuous improvement is part of our DNA, and we have shown that it works. We have beaten inflation. We have been able to keep operational costs and SG&A costs flat even while we have been growing, our production. So now we take new steps. We make further improvements across our staffs and underlying processes and deliveries. And this is important because that impacts everything that we do and all activities. But most significantly, we are transforming the way we operate on the Norwegian continental shelf, leading to lower costs, faster developments and higher production. And Kjetil, he will cover this in a few minutes. Internationally, we have fundamentally improved the portfolio, as Anders talked to, and it is now set to deliver higher production and lower cost per barrel.
And this leads to a very important number, and that is $20, $20 billion in free cash flow towards 2030. And rest assured, Philippe will come back to this in much more detail in a while. We have also reduced the CapEx plans for power and low carbon solutions by around $10 billion towards 2030, and that is a 50% reduction, 50%. So together, these improvements add 40%, 40%to the free cash flow towards 2030 when you compare it to what we discussed 17 months ago.
So M&A. M&A plays an important role in how we strengthen the portfolio, how we deepen in core areas and how we build longevity. We have a disciplined approach, and I will speak to the 3 areas that we focus on, have focused on and will continue to focus on. On the NCS, you should expect more harmonization across licenses and consolidation to capture synergies and improve efficiency. The transaction with Aker BP a few weeks back is a good example of this. And as the largest operator on the NCS, we will always consider opportunities to strengthen our position. Internationally, the portfolio has been high graded by divesting mature assets while deepening into core areas for growth and longevity. So we have strengthened our position in the U.S. through acquisitions in Marcellus and in the U.K. by establishing the company, Adura, together with Shell. More than $4 billion are realized in net proceeds since 2021 when Anders took helm, while we were adding more than 0.5 billion barrels of resources, increasing longevity and lowering costs and emissions.
And we will continue to look for more opportunities to strengthen our international oil and gas portfolio and adding longevity. Within power, a portfolio of platform companies have been built in attractive markets. So going forward, we will focus on integration and flexible power in markets that we do know well. The pace will be dictated by market conditions and the ability to generate strong returns. And we will build this business with discipline and be value-driven in everything that we do. Finally, there's nothing new related to the ownership in Orsted. Fundamentals are improving in the industry, but consolidation is needed. And stronger collaboration between Orsted and Equinor can benefit both companies. So we are seeking industrial solutions to unlock value for shareholders, and we are not considering buying more shares for cash. So we have now given you insight in what we aim to deliver towards 2030. But historic performance is often a good predictor for the future as well. So what you see behind me here is the performance of Equinor over the last 10 years, and we have measured that against BP, Total, Shell, Chevron and Exxon. So this is a story of us delivering higher return on capital employed, lower emissions and lower costs than our peers.
And this is what we will demand from ourselves going forward as well. So this is the benchmark, and this is what we aim for. So we have led the industry on total return to shareholders. And Anders, he showed you the result since the IPO over the last 25 years. Over the last 10 years, it is 210%, leading the peer group. And so far this year, we have continued to outperform. So I think it's worthwhile to dwell on that after 20 years of being listed.
Then over to capital distribution. So let me start with the cash dividend, and that is the first priority in our financial framework. In February, we increased our quarterly cash dividend by more than 5%, and that is what you should expect going forward on an annual basis. This represents our confidence in sort of our underlying earnings and our strong commitments to our shareholders. Then share buybacks. As we have mentioned, our share buyback for '26 will be doubled to $3 billion. But today, we are also presenting a more predictable framework for the future going forward from 2027. Buybacks will be in the range of $2 billion to $4 billion when we experience oil prices between $60 and $80 and European gas prices between $7 and $11 per MMBtu. The buyback level will, as you would understand, be subject to the strength of the balance sheet and macro outlook as such.
So this model will be implemented from next year. The buyback level will be assessed quarterly, and this will allow us to adjust during the year if commodity prices move as we have seen in 2026. We will decide the first tranche for '27 when we present our results in February. So if realized prices during fourth quarter are in the middle of the range, you should expect share buybacks to also be in the middle of the range. If commodity prices move outside the ranges, we will make an assessment based on our financial framework. So as you can see, the financial framework we looked at in the start of my presentation will allow us to steadily grow the cash dividend, invest in growth, protect the balance sheet and deliver predictable buybacks through market cycles. So let me conclude. We have built a unique competitive position. And this is the basis for a clear strategy, providing reliable energy for a world in transition. And today, we present a stronger company that will deliver more energy, a growing cash flow, and we will continue to deliver and provide you with superior returns. So now you will hear much more from the different business areas. And first, we're going to discuss what we'll do on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. We have done it before, and we will do it again. And now it's a privilege to invite a good friend and colleague, Kjetil Hove on the podium, the man with the plan. So Kjetil, please.
Thank you, Torgrim, for that introduction. And as you say, I really, really like to have a plan that's quite correct. So after more than 50 years of operation on the Norwegian continental shelf, we are now entering a new phase. We're going from mega projects to tieback projects with high internal rate of return and short payback time. We have many investment opportunities on the Norwegian continental shelf. However, they look different than what they have done in the past. A new operating model is required for continued value creation. And therefore, the strategy that we have on the NCS is to develop NCS to maximize value. The Norwegian Continental Shelf has a world-class petroleum system that continues to deliver as shown by Anders. The fiscal regime is investment-friendly and has been stable for decades. The Norwegian state is a 78% co-investor. This improves the risk sharing between the private investors and the state. The NCS has been a reliable energy provider close to the European markets for decades. The NCS provides low production cost, low emissions and a very flexible infrastructure. Going forward, Equinor has a unique position on the Norwegian continental shelf, operating almost 70%, 75% of the production on the NCS. As operator, we are able to drive the development strategy for the various assets. So we are, therefore, very good positioned to capture additional value from the Norwegian continental shelf. Today, I have 3 main messages for you. We are ahead of the plan, Torgrim, that we presented at the CMU in 2024. We have redefined the NCS operating model to capture significant improvements. And as a result, we are stepping up our production by adding 100,000 barrels per day in 2030 and 2035. So let me take you through these 3 points. Since the 2024 CMU, we have had significant progress on maturing new resources. This, you can clearly see on the charts. For both 2030 and 2035, you see much more of the dark color in the current progress compared to what you see in the CMU 2024. So let me elaborate a bit on this. In 2024, 65% of the production outlook that we had for 2035 came from proven resources. Today, 85% of the production outlook comes from proven resources. In 2030, 100% of the production outlook for 2030 comes from proven resources. This has been achieved through highly successful exploration. And since the last CMU, we have had 27 discoveries on the Norwegian continental shelf. But we have also had significant progress on maturing and growing the increased recovery portfolio and our non-sanctioned development portfolio is being matured according to our plan. We have redefined the operating model on the Norwegian continental shelf to increase pace and reduce cost for our subsea tieback projects. We are planning to deliver 6 to 8 new subsea tieback projects annually on the NCS. And based on 6 years of experience from our late-life organization, we see a potential to reduce both cost and lead time by 50%. Now we are implementing this experience on all of our NCS assets. Our work process has been significantly changed to improve our decision processes. And these changes are enabled by moving from company provided requirements to industry standards and from simplifying and standardizing our development solutions. And by using industry standard and standard solutions, we can early secure long lead items and all of this reduces cost and reduces lead time for the subsea tieback projects. And finally, by utilizing the large project portfolio, we can optimize the rig and vessel fleets and enhance the sourcing strategies for reducing in an overall cost reduction. We are stepping up to realize an even higher production in 2030 and 2035. We have a unique position in the future production hubs on the NCS. In the Norwegian Sea and in the Barents Sea, we are present in more than 75% of the licenses. And we operate almost 90% of the production hubs in the same area. And these 2 areas are the areas with the largest future potential on the Norwegian continental shelf. The redefined operating model increases our competitiveness, and it makes our large investments portfolio even more robust. Our investment portfolio has more than 500 investment opportunities. The 500 investment opportunities contain development projects, increased recovery projects and exploration opportunities. In volumes, this investment portfolio has more than 3 billion barrels of risked recoverable resources. And the investment portfolio is highly attractive with a breakeven less than $35 per barrel and a payback time less than 2.5 years. So let me elaborate a bit more on the development projects, the increased recovery projects and the exploration opportunities. Today, we have more than 65 sanctioned and non-sanctioned development projects in our portfolio. And the portfolio has more than 1 billion barrels of recoverable resources. And we have identified the first 3 waves of subsea tieback projects containing 21 field development projects to be sanctioned within the next 18 months. We have been out in the market for the first wave, and we see that we can deliver on the lead time ambition and the cost ambitions that I talked about earlier. With these first 3 waves, we will, on average, sanction 8 tieback projects in the period of '25 to '27 on the Norwegian continental shelf. And the 3 first waves gives us around 500 million barrels of recoverable resources to Equinor, which represent 2 Johan Castberg field for Equinor. We are exploring for new discoveries, and we are planning around 250 exploration wells in the next 10 years on the Norwegian continental shelf. And this will add significant amount of new development projects in the same period. And we will high-grade this project portfolio when we are delivering the 6 to 8 new projects every year on the Norwegian continental shelf. In addition to the development projects, we have a world-class increased recovery portfolio. We have already identified 230 improved recovery projects with a total of 1 billion barrels of recoverable resources. This increased recovery portfolio has a low breakeven and a short payback time. And we also see an additional upside of 3 billion barrels that we will continue to mature towards 2030. The increased recovery portfolio contains mainly infill drilling wells and low-pressure projects. In addition to the development project, we have -- and the increased recovery project, we have a large prospect portfolio. And we have already mapped 220 prospects with a risk recoverable resources of more than 1 billion barrels. In addition, we expect to identify around 200 additional prospects through the annual license round that we have on the Norwegian Continental Shelf towards 2035. And based on this, we plan to drill around 250 of our best prospects in the next 10 years. So to conclude, we are ahead of the plan that we presented at the CMU in 2024. We have a strong presence in the future production hubs and licenses on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. We have redefined the operating model to capture upsides and improve competitiveness. And we have a large and robust investment portfolio on the Norwegian continental shelf. Therefore, we are stepping up to realize an even higher production in 2035 of 1.3 million barrels per day. We are planning to invest around USD 7 billion annually towards 2030 on the NCS, and this will give us an average cash flow -- annual cash flow from operations after tax of USD 14 billion in the same period. With our updated ambition, we are securing that the NCS continues to be a reliable, low-carbon energy provider towards the European market. Thank you. And then I would like to invite Helge on the stage.
Thank you, Kjetil. And let's now shift gear to technology, where the impossible is made possible. There is no barrel of oil and gas found, drilled or lifted without technology. At our Capital Markets update in 2024, we said that we are rescanning the NCS all over again with the use of new seismic technology and AI. And now we see the result, 27 new discoveries. A great example is Lofn and Langmann, the largest Equinor-operated discovery in 2025. By reprocessing the data, the seismic image becomes much sharper and leading to the discovery. AI was key from automated data interpretation to efficient well planning. When it comes to field development, the future of NCS is subsea and reuse of existing infrastructure. With 6 to 8 new subsea developments planned every year, faster and more cost-efficient projects are critical to unlock value. Innovative solutions, standardization and reuse of equipment will be essential. Our AI tool for field development is transforming our planning process. It finds optimal solutions for subsea template layouts and well placements in hours rather than weeks. For future projects, we will use our own subsea technology with standardized interfaces. With this plug-and-play approach, we can pick the most cost-efficient components in the market, and it can be reused. This has already been successfully used on several exploration wells. Now we plan to use the same subsea template for exploration and production, reducing time to first oil to 2 to 3 years compared to historical average of 7 years. This is the development concept for the Omega South field. We are further developing the technology to fit a wide range of conditions and expanding to a multi-well system. 21 development projects have already been identified. This enables us to develop multiple projects in campaigns to further reduce cost and risk. As Kjetil mentioned, the NCS has significant increased recovery potential of up to 4 billion barrels. That's beyond the volumes at Johan Sverdrup. Johan Sverdrup is one of the world's most digitally advanced offshore fields, and it continues to outperform the original plan for development and operation. The field has produced 15% more than planned. Pushing this further, our goal is now to increase the recovery rate from 65% to 75%, outpacing the global offshore average of 35%. So how is this possible? Investments in data and advanced technologies allows us to continuously optimize production and operation from multilateral wells, fiber optic sensing to digital twin and AI optimization. A main challenge is to minimize water production. The solution is technology. Let me give you 2 examples. First, permanent seismic reservoir monitoring gives us full visibility of water movement over time. This enables us to take better decisions on how to drain the reservoir, where to place infill wells and injectors and resulting in about 2% increased recovery. Second, Equinor leads the industry in ultra-deep resistivity, allowing us to look ahead and around wide drilling. This enables us to place the wells further away from the water. This technology is widely used on the NCS and for the Breidablikk field. This has been the main contributor to 37% increased production compared to plans. Let's now move to our onshore integrated operations center. 85 billion data points flow from our assets into our center on an everyday basis. It was established in 2018 to leverage data to increase production and reduce downtime. Starting early has given us a clear advantage, significant improved data quality and a strong foundation for automation and AI. The center generated $3 billion in cash flow improvements in 2025 with AI as an important part. Taking this one step further, we see great potential in AI agents to optimize operation. At Troll, we are combining physics with Agent AI. And this is to identify and remove bottlenecks in the process facility to increase production. The first finding has an NPV of more than $400 million. Let's summarize. We are value-driven in every technology investment. And in 2025, we delivered cash flow improvements at 3x the invested amount implementing new technology. As you have heard throughout the presentation, AI is an integrated part in everything that we do, and we see significant potential going forward in our key focus areas. Subsurface operations, supply chain and trading, I'm sorry. Technology is a key success factor for the NCS, new volumes, record high discovery, cost efficiency and reduced time to market. And our strong technology innovation and deep operational competence is utilized for further growth across the international oil and gas and power business. Thank you.
And now it's time for a break. So please be back here at 9:50. Look forward to see you then.
[Break]
Systematic high grading, we have transformed this portfolio to become a high-quality cash generating with growth to 2030 and beyond. We have built a focused, world-class portfolio, generating cash flow and delivering strong growth to 2030. And this growth is underpinned by our next-generation assets. Last year, we delivered $2.7 billion in free cash flow and produced about 725,000 barrels per day. Looking ahead, we are growing production by 30% to 950,000 barrels per day. Cash flow from operation is set to outpace production growing around 80% to approximately $9 billion. And in total, this translates into $20 billion in free cash flow to 2030. And more than 90% of the reserves that we're going to be producing between now and 2030 are already sanctioned and in execution. This demonstrates high-quality growth. And effectively, we are bringing higher-margin barrels into the portfolio. As I said, our major projects are driving this growth. So let me give you some highlights. First, in Brazil. Bacalhau started production last October and is ramping up. The asset is currently producing up to 130,000 barrels per day. And wells are performing beyond expectations. The 3 producers have the potential to produce up to 70,000 barrels per day each. That strengthened the confidence we have in the asset, and we expect to reach plateau later this year. Raia is on track, first production in 2028. The project is advancing well. The FPSO is 80% complete. The gas export pipeline has been installed and drilling is ongoing. At Plateau, Raia is set to produce 15% of gas demand in Brazil. And we have already 3 gas sales contracts in place. Moving to the U.S. In the Gulf, Sparta Zone is also moving forward as planned, targeting startup in 2028 with around 100,000 barrels per day capacity. In Angola, we are close to sanctioning the Greater PAJ project, which is a high-quality, fast-track project with superior return, expecting to generate CFFO of more than $50 per barrel. And in the U.K., we are building scale through Adura, our joint venture with Shell, where Rosebank and Jackdaw are planned to come on stream '26, '27. So what this shows you is that the international upstream portfolio delivers quality growth to 2030 with strong cash flow and peer-leading margins. And this reflects the strategic choices that we have taken for the past few years. Since 2023, we have significantly improved the quality and the competitiveness of the portfolio. That has come from consistent execution and some tough choices along the way. Today, we're focused in 9 countries where we have strong position. We have divested higher cost, mature noncore position while deepening into core markets, including in the U.S. onshore and creating Adura in the U.K. And this results in a much more resilient and competitive portfolio. Let me give you some highlights for what we expect in 2030. We generate more CFFO per barrel produced with a 25% uplift in cash margins between 2025 and 2030. And that places us at peer-leading level. We reduced unit production cost by around 30% and to $5.5 per barrel in the same period. That places us in the top quartile versus peers.
We are bringing operated CO2 below 7 kilos per barrel. And if you look at the corresponding average outlook for peers, it's 14. And we are cash flow neutral below $40, while still investing for continued growth.
And this resilience provides a strong platform for future growth. We have a clear ambition to sustain growth to 2030 and beyond 2030. And we have an attractive option space to deliver on it. And these are the growth opportunities that we are progressing. First, let me talk about some high-value short-cycle opportunities, a capital-efficient way to maximize recovery and generate near-term cash flow. In Angola, we are adding resources through increased oil recovery, infrastructure-led exploration. The Greater PAJ project is actually applying a similar hub and cluster model as on the NCS to develop additional resources. In the U.S. onshore, -- our Appalachian position provides stable, low-cost, low-emission cash flow. It is supported by an inventory of more than 2,000 remaining drilling locations. This gives us visibility on sustained short-cycle growth. We also see value upside, both from growing upstream, but also from margin uplift linked to trading, LNG and power. The second option space is our unsanctioned project pipeline and also prolonging the life of existing assets. Here, projects like Bay du Nord will sustain cash flow beyond 2030, delivering high-value barrels. And we actively extend the life of existing assets such as in Angola, Block 15 and 17 or in Brazil with Roncador. And third, we are maturing long-term options like Tanzania, while stepping up exploration. And this shows that we are not reliant on only one single lever. We have multiple pathways to sustain performance beyond 2030. And with that, let me zoom in on exploration, which is one of the key contributor for future resource growth. Exploration is key for us to replenish the portfolio and sustain growth beyond 2030. And we do it in a disciplined way. Over the past years, we've mainly focused on lower risk and near-field opportunities. Going forward, we will complement that with 2 to 4 wells per year that have stand-alone potential, seeking, therefore, to unlock more resources. Our main focus is going to be along the Atlantic margin, where we already have a very diverse portfolio with $1 billion of risked recoverable resources. We are targeting basins with proven systems where we can leverage our skills, our capabilities in offshore and deepwater. And we expect to spend $3 million to $5 million in exploration per year to 2030. So let me give you some highlights. In Brazil, we are planning 2 wells with stand-alone potential in '27, '28. Jaspe near Raia and Turmalina next to the BP Bumerangue discovery. In Angola, we have deepened our position with 18 new exploration licenses, and we are maturing several stand-alone opportunities for drilling in the next 2 to 3 years. We are also planning to appraise Angolan Block 1/14 to further understand the gas discovery that was made in 2025. And we are maturing opportunities offshore in Argentina with potential drilling in a '28, '29 time frame. And as we are progressing the exploration pipeline, we're also seeking to add positions through farm-ins, license rounds and potential entry into new basins, including new countries. So in conclusion, let me leave you with 3 key messages. Number one, we deliver what we commit, strong visible growth already in execution with cash flow from operation growing faster than production. Two, we have reshaped the portfolio, improved robustness with top quartile returns through systematic high grading. And three, we are building what comes next, a highly profitable international upstream business with an attractive and scalable option space. This gives me confidence that we can continue to grow well beyond 2030. Thank you for your attention, and now I will hand over to my good colleague, Geir, Head of Project, Drilling and Procurement.
Thank you, Philippe, and good morning. After more than 40 years in the company, performance has always been close to my heart. And when I talk about performance, it's 3 things that is included. It is safety, it is efficiency and it's cost. And today, I will talk about performance within 2 topics. It is in our drilling and well capabilities and stand-alone greenfield projects, both supporting our company ambitions. At Equinor, we have built a strong drilling and well organization. Globally, we operate 28 rigs, 14 mobile rigs and 14 fixed rigs on platforms. And since 2013, -- we have drilled approximately 100 new offshore wells every year. And we have done that consistently through the industry cycles to make sure that we have a supply chain that can support our activities. This chart shows that we have achieved significant improvements since 2013, both on the mobile sites and also on the fixed rigs. And over the past decades, we have delivered more wells per rig than in the previous period. What this means is that we today drill over 100 new wells with approximately 10 rigs less than we did back in 2013. On the Norwegian continental shelf, 70% of the production in 2035 will come from new wells. And moving forward, we will work systematically to improve performance from today's 100 wells up to 125 new offshore wells yearly towards 2035 and reduce the cost with 30% per well. We will unlock this through 3 things: standardization, simplification and integrated teams, creating a factory approach to improve the entire portfolio. No one knows the Norwegian continental shelf better than Equinor. And let me share 2 examples. First, we have delivered or developed the Troll field by several tieback projects, and we continue to do this better. During the last tieback, we delivered wells with an average of 4 weeks per well. This year, using the same standardized concept and repeat operations, we have reduced this to an average of 3 weeks per well. And the best well was below 2 weeks, showing that there's potential is even larger. On the Gullfaks field, a matured, I would say, complex subsurface, simplification and standardization has also paid off. In 2025, we delivered 15 wells with a cost reduction of 20% compared to 2024. And these are just 2 examples of improved performance, and we are aiming to achieve the same lift in performance on the entire portfolio. Let me then move to the stand-alone greenfield projects. And of course, this comes in addition to all the subsea tieback that Kjetil has told about on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. These stand-alone projects are key to opening new areas. And you have seen from our track record that as soon as we get to the production plateau, we focus on extending it, either through infill wells or adding new volumes for nearby discoveries. Last year, we put 2 greenfield projects on production, Johan Castberg and Bacalhau. These projects will deliver and generate value for decades to come. Then we have 2 greenfield projects in execution, the Rosebank project on behalf of Adura and the Raia project. Both projects are well underway and will bring important volumes to their respective markets. Looking beyond 2030, we are progressing to sanction 2 new greenfield projects, Bay du Nord in Canada and Wisting in the Northern Norway. First, let's talk about Bay du Nord. It's a basin opener for Equinor in Canada with 550 million barrels in recoverable reserves. The concept select was taken at the end of 2025 with a decision to develop 2 of the 5 discoveries. And reshaping the project has reduced the CapEx by 30% and improved the net present value by 30%. The Bay du Nord project is progressing towards a final investment decision in early 2027. When it comes to Wisting, it's the largest undeveloped discovery on the Norwegian Continental Shelf with 500 million barrels in recoverable reserves. The concept select is scheduled later this year, and we will work and are still working to improve the project towards a final investment decision at the end of 2027. Both Bay du Nord and Wisting are expected to create significant value and longevity. To just summarize, at Equinor, we have strong drilling and well and projects capabilities, and both will be important to achieve our ambitions. Thank you for your attention. And then I will invite Helge, Head of Power to the stage.
Thank you, Geir. 6 months ago, we established Power as a new business area. And today, I will tell you why we established power, what power is and what you should expect over the next years. To briefly introduce myself, I have been with the company for 23 years. And before taking on the role as Head of Power, I headed up our gas and power trading. We decided to establish power based on both external and internal factors. And as Anders said earlier, we are investing on the back of 2 macro trends. Electricity demand is growing and more of this electricity will come from intermittent renewables. And it is our belief that the energy system will require more flexibility and market-based solutions. Internally, we have built an increasingly diverse business across technologies, and we have become a major power trader in the market. So to get the best out of our portfolio, we now brought all our power activities together in one business area, taking an integrated approach. We are now coming out of an investment cycle. And when our mega projects are coming into operation, our power business will enter into a new phase. But before guiding towards the future, I also want to reflect on the history that brought us to where we are today. Financially, there has been some ups and downs. Empire Wind, our project outside New York, has been challenging. But remember, there's also been quite a few positives over the years. Our early projects in offshore wind are now generating high and stable returns. And we also had some well-timed farm-downs. Our entry into gas-generated electricity, Triton Power in U.K. has been good. And of course, we are very happy with the integration and the performance of Danske Commodities. We already paid back that acquisition multiple times. Overall, we are seeing 10% rate of return for the sanctioned and producing portfolio. We have also successfully been able to integrate companies into Equinor through what we call the platform model. The platforms are local companies, 100% owned by Equinor. They have quite a bit of autonomy to protect what is working well, while still connecting to the bigger Equinor where it makes sense. Danske Commodities is our trading arm. Vento is our platform in Poland, Rio Energy in Brazil, East Point in the U.S. and B Green in Denmark. Through the platform model, partnerships and trading, we have built a diverse portfolio. 35 producing and ongoing projects now producing 5.7 terawatt hours. And we have a portfolio of 17 gigawatts under management through Danske Commodities. To succeed with an integrated approach, we will focus our efforts on where we have a significant presence. And it's not a coincidence that these markets are the same as the landing points for our gas. Gas will be needed as reliable energy in the decades to come in all these markets. So -- let me share a few examples on how we will add value from integration, working across technologies, using market insights and leveraging trading. In Brazil, we have an onshore wind farm managed by our local platform. We saw that solar would fit well with our grid connection, already having the land, having the infrastructure, we were able through colocation to reduce CapEx by 30%, 3-0 percent. In Denmark, a market we know very well, we have a solar farm Ingerslev. And here, we experienced declining capture prices due to cannibalization. Since we had the existing grid connection, we could rapidly develop a battery project. This project has 25% rate of return, lifting the overall economics of the Ingerslev complex by approximately 3 percentage points. Having a large market presence also gives us advantages of balancing the power. For offshore wind, we see a 1 percentage point uplift in return from balancing our equity production ourselves. We have developed a competitive edge optimizing batteries, and this can be quite advanced trading. In the U.K., we are among the top battery optimizers. Due to this performance, we have recently secured several long-term contracts where we optimize for others with a share of the profits. And this is a way to grow our market presence and profits with less capital spend. As the markets will be volatile and complex, the benefit of integration will grow and the future will bring more opportunities. Our significant gas position in Europe and the U.S. is a door opener for us. In the Northeast U.S., the gas markets are physical. And therefore, our gas position in Appalachia can be directly coupled with gas-fired power stations. In the U.S., we already have a virtual power plant that is coupled with our gas, and Irene will soon tell you more about the opportunities that comes with such a position. In Europe, the gas market is liquid, and it is an integrated part of the future power system. as a backup to renewable energy. Being broad in technologies, deep in the European markets, this will allow us to deliver reliable energy where and when it's needed. So to the part that many of you probably are most interested in, what will then this look like in cash flow and numbers for the next years. We will be growing our cash flow from operations, thanks to the projects we have under execution. Our #1 priority is to execute these mega projects in a safe and efficient way. Empire Wind is around 70% complete-- 70. Baltyk II & III are on track to have all 100 monopiles installed this year. On Dogger Bank A, we have all the turbines installed, and we are now progressing on Dogger Bank B. And Net Zero Teesside is also developing well. I have spent time with our projects to see the progress myself, and I'm really proud of how our people are delivering on this. Now coming out of this investment phase, our cash flow from operations will increase significantly, threefold from 2027 towards 2030 and most of that already by 2028. And actually, the offshore wind business will in itself turn cash flow positive already next year. And this means that power overall will come into a different phase. For the period 2027 to 2030, we will be able to self-finance the business when also including the effect of the ITC. Shaping the portfolio going forward, we will gradually shift investments towards more flexible assets, and this will create a better balance between short-cycle and long-cycle investments. And you should also note that over this period, the revenues here will predominantly come from fixed price contracts and capacity mechanisms and as such, that will carry less risk. In summary, An integrated approach to the power business will secure competitiveness and improved returns. However, the projects have to be attractive on a stand-alone basis. We will have to see at least 10% nominal equity return. Projects with government support and low-risk cash flow will typically be levered. Projects with merchant risk will typically be unlevered. And some projects will, of course, be significantly above this threshold as well. Portfolio uplift, which is value from trading, integration, capital recycling that will come on top of this. So you should, therefore, expect better returns going forward. We are going to grow organically in our core areas. We will grow our production 4x to well above 20 terawatt hours, and this is thanks to our projects under construction. We will grow our flexible capacity 3x to above 2 gigawatts, and this thanks to our early entry into batteries and the Net Zero Teeside project. And we expect to double contracted volumes from third parties to more than 30 gigawatts. And this means that we also grow our market presence and exposure without incurring a one-to-one increase in capital spend. Over the guided period, we will generate around $3 billion in cash flow from operation, which together with the ITC is going to be enough to finance this plan. We will, therefore, be self-funded for this period while still growing, self-funded whilst growing. Three points to leave you with. One, we established power as a response to the external world we are seeing and to extract benefits of the integration. Two, our power business is entering into a new phase as our mega projects comes into production and our cash flow from operations will grow significantly. And three, Equinor is now well positioned to deliver value and reliable energy also in the world of power. So with that, I thank you for the attention. And it is my great pleasure to hand it over to my previous boss, the Queen of Natural Gas Irene Rummelhoff. So please welcome her.
Well, Helge, if I was -- if I am the Queen of gas, what did that make you when you work for me? Princeling or...? Well, good to see you all. I hope you have some energy left because I have quite a bit of things that I want to share with you. What I will do over the next 10, 12 minutes or so is that I will share with you my reflections on what it means to be a reliable provider of energy. Then I'll go into the trading business and particularly some step-outs that we are quite excited about. So let me start by reflecting on what I think is a reliable provider of energy. As the biggest supplier of energy into Europe, this is really what my organization works on and take pride in every day. And it is, as Camilla said, it's about protecting critical infrastructure, but it's about avoiding safety incidents and keeping up regularity. And right now, we are super proud of the regularity that is 99% year-to-date on our gas processing plants. But it's more than that. There's a softer side to it. It's about honoring relationships, honoring contracts, helping out customers when they have operational issues and maybe also financial issues. And this is very much the approach that we have taken throughout the Strait of Hormuz crisis. And judging by the incoming call from all over the world, this has been noticed. And I think it's fair to say that our brand name as a reliable provider of energy is stronger than ever. So let's move to our trading activities. As the numbers on this slide shows, the MMP organization has added significant value over the last few years to and contributes really well to the overall cash flow of the company. But this slide also shows what I've said to you so many times that our asset-backed trading strategy basically has a limited downside, but a significant upside, particularly in times of disruption either in supply or demand, such as COVID or the 2 recent wars. The assets that we trade around is the NCS pipeline infrastructure and just about 100 vessels that we have under contract at any given time. They allow us to take advantage of geographical price volatility as we basically can fill in gaps anywhere in the world at any given time. But we also have terminals, storage facilities, et cetera, that allows us to trade around quality and price differentials. And rest assured, this will be also the bread and butter of our trading activities going forward. But when we sat down earlier this year and worked through our strategy process, we tried to couple market insight, market trends, what is really Equinor's strength, such as the brand name I just talked about, the NCS legacy position, the balance sheet and maybe a bit more subtly, but our collaborative culture built on years of global trading books. Out of that exercise, 5 value pockets emerged, and I'll take you through some examples of all of them. When you add up the potential that we identified, we do think when we come into 2030 that we can actually increase our quarterly guiding from USD 400 million to [ 100 ] , not today, but in 2030. But let me start with some examples.
What do I mean when we talk about selected geographies? With Russian gas being banned in Europe from late '27, there's obviously a big void to be filled, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe.
And it is in these areas that we see significant interest and uptick in asking for long-term contracts, which is probably also underpinned by the general security of supply focus. These markets are less liquid than the Northwestern European markets, which typically offers up higher margins.
Also, we're seeing a significant build-out of LNG terminals, particularly in Poland and in the Baltics, which allows us to optimize between pipes gas and LNG, adding a further value. Then a few words on flexibility. I already mentioned that we're trading actively around the flexibility that the infra pipeline and vessel gives us, but also upstream offers up flexibility.
Take, for instance, a crude field that uses gas injection. We need to basically inject a certain amount of gas every year, but you don't have to inject the same amount of gas every week or every day. So we can utilize that basically as a gas storage.
Then I'd like to take you into a few examples where we've already proven that cross-commodity exposure and long-term positions are creating value. In our Stanford office, our gas traders and power traders are basically sitting back to back. And out of that collaboration came the idea of selling some of the gas on power indexation.
Basically giving us access to a power plant without physical or virtual power plant as Helge talked about. So far, with the massive data center build-out, this has really paid off. And it's also setting us up quite nicely should Helge decide to add some physical assets in this region.
The same teams on, I guess, the back of our very robust balance sheet has actively pursued transportation capacity into premium markets out of the Appalachian basin. And sometimes these premium markets become very premium. And some of you might recall that gas prices in New York City spiked at USD 100 per MMBtu this winter.
And resulting in a net gain on that one pipeline position of USD 70 million alone. I think this is also a pretty good example of what I'm trying to really get you to believe in that our asset like trading has a low downside and a significant upside.
The cost of that transportation was about $10 million, held up against the income of $80 million. Then let's talk about LPG. I would argue that LPG trading tends to be a bit overlooked, but it's actually one of the most exciting ones, and it fits us perfectly. It is a true global arbitrage game where the shipping logistics is basically half of the trade and seasonality drives enormous volatility.
LPG also sits at the intersection of many markets as it competes with naphtha in the petchem industry, competes with gas in the heating and cooking segment, which sets us up really well for cross commodity offerings or trading. It is also a very exciting part of the just energy transition as it basically replaces firewood, dun, kerosene in developing markets. And in doing that, saving millions of lives and also emissions.
In Equinor, over the last 5 to 10 years, we've grown from a regional player on the back of Norwegian volumes to a true global player. We've done that through long-term sourcing of volumes and vessels and through building extremely strong relationships with some key Asian customers.
So today, we're actually one of the top five LPG traders in the world, and our third-party volumes are actually 5x the size of the equity volumes. And as you can see from this slide, our LPG trading certainly hits above its weight also when it comes to the M&P result. In her quite amazing movie, Helge showed you how we use AI and digital tools to improve the upstream business.
But Helge and myself are also working extensively together to take out the potential that digital tools offers in the trading business. And I would argue that we're starting from a strong position where digital tools already delivers significant value.
In Danske Commodity, 95% or 90% of the trades are done by algos, algorithms. Our LNG fleet is optimized by AI already. And our gate tool, which is basically the European gas optimization tool delivered something like USD 60 million last year.
Going forward, though, we will increasingly use our data and market insights into advanced analytics. We will utilize AI to optimize cargo, bunkering and routing. We will increase our algo trading, and we will automate some of the more simple back-office functions. And I wouldn't be surprised if our traders very soon has a small army of agents at their desk.
So I guess to sum up, over the last 8 to 10 years, the MMP organization have consistently and significantly built competence and capabilities. And I -- and our brand name is stronger than ever, and I feel quite confident that we're ready to leverage technology and create value from these step-ups.
But we will also while we're in the market talking to customers and participants, we will transform the knowledge that we gather into future business opportunities and strategic direction for the company. So thank you so much for your attention. And now I believe I'm supposed to invite Anders back on stage.
Yes. Thank you very much, Irene, and also thank you to the rest of the team. In the 25 years since the IPO, we have demonstrated strong performance time and time again and continue to create industry-leading value for our shareholders. What we have presented today is our road map on how we will continue to improve. It's how we will make sure to maximize the potential on the Norwegian continental shelf, how we will grow our international oil and gas business with high-value barrels, how we will build an integrated power business ready for the future, how we will expand our trading activity to create value through cycles.
And all this is enabled by people, technology, capital discipline and project development excellence. In 2030, we will be an even stronger company with more energy, growing cash flow and delivering superior returns. So thank you very much for your attention. This concludes the presentations. And now we look forward to your questions. Thank you.
So now I also would like to invite Bard and Torgrim on stage, and I believe there will be some tables as well.
Thank you, Anders, and thank you to all presenters. We are then ready to start the Q&A. As you will see, Anders and Torgrim is on the stage ready to take questions, but also the rest of the CEC will be ready to respond. [Operator Instructions]
We will have a microphones. So we have a few people in the room with microphones when it's your turn. And I know most of you, but not necessarily I will ask you to introduce yourself for the rest. [Operator Instructions]
So we start, and I think I saw Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs first. So you will get a microphone and then we start from there.
2. Question Answer
I wanted to ask two questions. The first one is related to the increased $1 billion of oil and gas CapEx for next year. I was wondering if you could unpick for us where that increased spend comes from between tiebacks, increased exploration, perhaps bringing forward some of your largest new developments like Wisting and Bay du Nord.
And then, again, thank you very much for unpicking for us the tremendous improvement in time to market, cost efficiency over the last few years. We are now going through some transformational change with AI, digitalization, quicker computing power. I was just wondering where you think that further improvements can come from, if that's mostly on the exploration side in the subsurface with improved recovery rate or still maybe just more efficiency in drilling and in time to market?
Okay. Thank you very much. And let me start with $1 billion CapEx increase for 2027. I think this is really about for us, the work that Kjetil showed that he has now made a lot of exploration discoveries and put a new operating model in place. We are accelerating some of these projects compared to what we said before.
And we're also pre-investing in some of these projects to take down the lead time. So some of this $1 billion is actually moved into the EPN for accelerating, be able to deliver on the 2030.
In addition, we have seen that the Greater PAJ project in Angola has developed very well, and it's coming soon for final investment decision. So we would also like to allocate a little bit more capital there. If sanctioned, this will come on stream around 2029, if I remember correctly, meaning again cash flow before 2030.
And also, as Philippe mentioned, a little bit more on exploration, particularly in Brazil, but also some of all the opportunities. So this is really kind of a little bit how we think about CapEx. If we find these really good opportunities that we are able to invest in now that bringing good returns and cash flow from operation back quite early, we are ready to invest in them. So that's really about finding new opportunities that we now see we capture.
When it comes to the AI, actually, in every part of the business, we can see improvements, and we are implementing AI now, but it is particularly in the industrial processes that -- we see the improvement. Subsurface, well optimization, the time to plan wells and interpret the subsurface. I thought you saw a lot of good examples on the movie earlier.
Production and maintenance improvements is really one of where we see the opportunities and supply chain, we also have quite a good program in AI in supply chain and trading, as Irene mentioned at the end of her presentation. So -- and we're working with the best companies to really improve it.
Work at executive level, both with the management of Microsoft and Tropic such that we are able to kind of using the latest technology because we have the data, they have the technology, we have the people with the knowledge and combining that is what gives the results.
Thank you. The next one on my list is Nash Cui from Barclays. And after that, we will go to Jason Gabelman and TD Cowen.
Nash, please.
First, congratulations on your 25-year anniversary since IPO. My first question, I really like the chart on Slide 8, where I showed you 15 years of beating expectation on NCS production. So this chart on Slide 8.
My question is, how should we think about the next 15 years beyond 2030? Do you think the short-cycle tieback project is enough? Or do you need bigger projects to go beyond 2030 and 2035? Then my second question is on your new exciting power segment. I know Orsted is a big part of your current renewable portfolio. What is Orsted role in your longer-term power strategy?
Well, talking about the Norwegian continental shelf and the future of it, I really like to have Kjetil, the man with the plan to say a little bit more about not only about now, but also the future there. So Kjetil?
Yes. So going forward, I think the key will be how we are able to utilize the infrastructure that we've already invested in. So a lot of the future opportunities, as I explained in my presentation, is going to be around that. It's about increased the recovery from our existing field and also the tiebacks that is then taken back to the infrastructure that we already have.
However, we still have a split within the exploration of 80-20. So around 20% of the exploration effort is going to go towards more risky, but also higher potential opportunities. So you should not be surprised if we come back next year or the year after with some new listings in the portfolio. But it's 80-20, but the key is going to be utilizing the infrastructure that we already have invested on the Norwegian continental shelf.
And when it comes to power, there's no new news or any change in position towards Orsted. We have a very offshore wind projects that we are executing at the moment. That is our focus. Long term, in selected geographies, offshore wind will improve. with the ambition in many countries, I think consolidation will be a part of it. And we think further collaboration with us and Orsted could benefit both parties. But as I said, no change in position. This is a long-term industrial position.
Thank you. The next one is Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen in the back there. And after that, we will go on the other side of the room to Chris Kuplent in Bank of America.
Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen. The first one is on the Norwegian continental shelf and the production growth to 2030. Wondering as you move forward in exploiting the resource there, does the gas to oil composition of your output change? And more directly, is the 2030 gas to oil mix for the portfolio different than it is right now?
And then the second one is on the distributions to 2030. I appreciate the additional guidance. If I do some rough math, it seems like the payout ratio is about 30% of cash flow at the midpoint that you presented.
You've talked about in the past about wanting to be competitive on the distribution policy against peers. Do you think 30% is enough? And will you use that 30% to kind of guide buybacks quarter-to-quarter in the future?
Yes. So first, a little bit on the gas and oil ratio on the Norwegian continental shelf, I don't think you should expect a big change in it going forward. We will have associated gas with all the oil discoveries, and we will have development on some of the gas fields that are Linnorm, for instance, is one of the largest remaining gas fields on the Norwegian continental shelf.
So I think you should think about the oil and gas ratio towards 2030 to be fairly similar to what we have today. And then Torgrim, a little bit more on the distribution.
Thank you, Jason. So yes, what we have done today is to put forward something that should be predictable. So you should be able to build some expectation on what will come from us. So I think that is very important for us to build credibility around that. So you actually know what you are facing and then on your question sort of to what extent this is competitive.
So two points in that regard. First of all, I think we need to look at this in a broader context around the financial framework. So this is part of a total capital allocation thinking. So point number one, cash dividend; point number two, reinvestment into high-return businesses. Third is to maintain a solid balance sheet, and then it is share buyback.
So I think we need to look at it in totality. And then on your percentage, I think when you do the math, you get to around that number. And then there are some specialties with us, and it is the Norwegian tax -- so on CapEx, it's a pretax number. Cash flow from operations is an after-tax number.
But here, you have the whole tax benefit of the Norwegian investments. So it's, in a way, boosted up due to tax deductions on investments on day one. So if you normalize for this, you get to around 40% as such. That is sort of the simplest way I can think about it, but more than happy to follow up afterwards. But we find it broadly in line with what others have as such, some specialties with us.
Thank you, then it's Chris, Bank of America.
Two questions, if I may. The first one, maybe for you, Torgrim, you're retiring your gearing target. That's great. I guess, as a loaded question, does that imply that you already expect gearing by the end of this year to significantly undershoot the 15% low end of your now retired target? And maybe you can comment a little bit around the use of that balance sheet strength. You've given us an organic CapEx guidance today. What are your plans and ambitions for inorganic?
Do you think they need to be funded by disposals always, which I think has been more or less the case in the last few years? That's an open question.
And then maybe for you, Anders, I want to ask you around procyclicality. You're coming here today and you're saying my CapEx will be at the upper end of the range in a higher oil and gas price environment. Don't you think by the time Bay du Nord and Wisting start to produce oil in 2031 plus, you might regret some of that what looks like procyclical behavior. So maybe you can push back a little bit against that thesis?
So Torgrim, You wana start?
Yes. Thank you, Chris. Yes, so we are retiring the gearing guiding as such. So a little bit of outlook for the year. I mean, it is coming down towards the second quarter, you would -- we should expect it to be below 15% and towards year-end, even lower than that, but sort of lower than 15% so I think that's sort of what you should expect.
And we intend to run with sort of a very solid balance sheet as such. Then I think it's sort of important for me to say that in a world that we currently live in with all the volatility and all the uncertainties, this is extremely important, and we will keep it that way. Then I would say that sort of the range when we put it in place many years ago, it was because we had a gearing above the range that we want to get on.
That's not the case anymore. And I would argue that sort of looking to the past, if we have a situation with significant cash inflow as we had during the Ukrainian war, we had a negative net debt. We distributed that back to get back to a normal situation. So this will be sort of the way of thinking about the balance sheet.
We will use it also to distribute surplus cash when that is that is the right thing to do. Then on M&A, this is an integrated way of thinking about the business. Over the past, we have been fairly balanced in divestments and acquisitions, and we will continue to take that mindset.
Of course, I mean, this is not on an annual basis as such, but we will acquire and we will divest. And it is not a not a mystical thing. It is just an integrated way of the way we deliver returns and build our business. And that is what you should expect.
Okay. And you wanted some pushback. So First of all, if you look at the macro now, what we see and what we have presented also here today, based on the -- what happened in the world, the energy transition goes slower. We see oil and gas for longer compared to many thought in the past. And that gives us a confidence of the demand in the future as well.
And our business is about developing these projects, making sure that when we invest them in good times when they are really, really good. When it comes to the [ $1 billion ] increases that we did this year, it's because we have increased the business opportunities.
We have very, very low breakeven for them. You have 30% IRR and lower than $40 breakeven, meaning that they are also in a kind of a cyclical world quite good in investments. And it's now they are there. It's now they are ready. It's now the host is ready to take them and have the availability to do it. That particularly for the CapEx increases that we had this year.
When it comes to Wisting and Bay du Nord, they are also now over time, improved back on kind of oil for longer. We will focus on low breakeven, high return on these projects as well, such that they can withstand the cyclicality that we will see in our business. And we have to live with that all the time. But we will always be very disciplined in CapEx.
We will make sure that we're high-grading our portfolio all the time, not overspending year-by-year, but it's kind of what we have achieved lately now on the Norwegian continent shelf, for instance, is that by steady investing all the time, we're building opportunities and opportunities, and we take them when we have them. So that is the way we think around this also in a psychological cyclical commodity market.
Thank you. Next one is John A. Olaisen from ABG Sundal Collier.
Two questions. First, on the cost side. International rig players are telling us they see significant improvements for day rates in all segments. The subsea players are basically sold out for 2 years and tell us that the outlook for their part of the business haven't been this good for more than a decade. Oilfield service names are increasing margins by the quarter.
The seismic industry is so bad at the moment that if market doesn't improve, you will probably see bankruptcies over the last -- next 12 months. So I just wonder what kind of cost inflation do you see? And have you assumed in the -- for instance, in the $40 billion free cash flow forecast? That was my first question on cost.
The second is on exploration. Philippe said that he has two to four stand-alone prospects to be drilled. I didn't get whether that was on per year or between now and 2030. But my question is really on the 250 exploration wells that you plan over the next 10 years in Norway, how many of those are potential stand-alone developments? So two questions, please.
Yes, so let's start with the exploration. So with Philippe, stand-alone opportunities, particularly in Brazil, where we have the Jaspe, which is a nearby field to Raia that we are developing now. And also the Turmalina, which is the neighbor to the Bumerangue BP discovery.
So it's done, but also we're working very closely with our other operators in Angola with a lot of exploration opportunities there as well. You are right about the number of exploration wells on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. It will be about 25 of them per year, but we also do have high-impact wells in that portfolio.
And if we're talking about the next 2 years, there's about three high-impact wells that will be in the Norwegian Sea, Norskehavet. And as Kjetil showed earlier today as well on the slide, Norskehavet, Norwegian Sea is one of the area where we have a good position, and it's also a high potential.
So there will be mostly ILX exploration wells on Norwegian Continental Shelf, but the Kjetil's team, they will constantly look for high-impact well as well. Well, that's just the -- just to clarify, they will be on the next.
As I explained in the last question, of the 250 wells we're going to drill on the NS, around 20% is going to be into what we call higher risk but also higher potential. So then you could do the math yourself. But you should remember that even if they are high impact, many of them are quite close to the current infrastructure. So you shouldn't by default, say that it will be a stand-alone. Some of them may be tied back to existing as well.
But 20% of the 250 high potential, but also high risk.
And also in the Norwegian Sea are the closest one to come. When it comes to cost, we have seen a cost in our portfolio as all others. We have seen a cost increase over the years, last 5 years in the subsea, in the rig, in the offshore wind and so on. But now we have a portfolio of a lot of projects coming with standardized solution and the suppliers can predict the number of activities that will come.
[indiscernible] and Kjetil, they have been out in the market with the first wave of standardized solutions, and we already see cost improvements based on that. We see that we're confirming the decreased time from exploration to discovery. So this is actually working by standardizing and putting many developments out there.
So we are on track to deliver on the improvements that Torgrim showed here, particularly on the NCS part of the business. We have worked really hard over the last years to be predictable, finding the opportunities and be able to spend the same amount of money into the market, giving the suppliers the opportunity to also improve their business. And by using industry standards instead of our own standards, that also helps that the suppliers can lower the cost, not necessarily their own margins.
Thank you. We will do a couple of more in the room, and we will do a couple on the phone and then come back to the room. So we'll go to the middle of the room and Teodor Sveen-Nilsen first and then to you, Teodor from Sparebank.
First question, that is on your increased ambition on NCS of 1.3 million barrels per day up from 1.2 million. Could you just talk us through the most important changes that has happened over the past 12 months that justifies that increase?
And second question, that is on the return on capital employed that you show that has been much better than peers. Which factors do you think have driven that performance? And which of those factors is sustainable and will also be in place in 10 years' time?
So from 1.2 to 1.35 for the Norwegian continental shelf. This is not only what happened over the 12 months. This is last time we had a Capital Markets Day after that presentation, Kjetil and his team, they went to do more seismic, then they identified a lot of new opportunities, then they're starting exploration drilling for those opportunities.
And since 2023, they made 45 discoveries, 27 from the Capital Markets Day in '25 with a lot of resources then, how do we actually get them faster to the market. And that is what happened over the last 12 months. The last 12 months, we worked fundamentally changing the way we work, changing all the procedure, looking into where we can do the pre-investment to accelerate.
And by doing -- having the resources, have them proven, changing the way we work. So last -- over the last 12 months, then we feel confident that we are able to actually deliver on this. The -- all the organization changes, the new processes, they started 4th of May. So we are already rolling.
And what we saw from -- in the first wave has already been approved by me. So we are driving this. And we had also very good response in the supplier market.
So that gives us the confidence that we can do Wave 2, that we can do Wave 3 and then also define up the next wave. So that's why we can bring it up. It's actually based on what we have done and not kind of looking into a potential number for production, but based on performance what we have. ROCE, of course, we -- this is about, again, also our consistent investment on the Norwegian continental shelf that we are consistently able to reuse our infrastructure, our pipelines, et cetera.
Remember, we are able to bring in new resources to the existing infrastructure at very low cost and also at very high return. And over time, this drives the high ROCE. And with a very good international portfolio as well in a lower tax regime, we see a great growth in cash flow and returns from our international portfolio. Anything you want to add on that, Torgrim?
Thank you very much, Anders. Well, the project portfolio provides a 30% internal rate of return. That doesn't count for exploration and corporate costs and all of that, but it's sort of very consistent with a very high return on capital employed. So that is the starting point. It is sort of the quality of the investment program. And I think it's sort of been working with this for so many years, I think it's actually quite interesting to see that we have been able to maintain sort of both a breakeven and internal rate of return even if there has been inflation over many, many years.
So I think this is, in a way, is a testament to what the organization has been able to take out of scale, new concepts on the NCS and an international portfolio. Then I do think sort of a consistency, as you said, on the strategy. We haven't sort of -- we have sort of been doing very much of the same over many, many years and that drives return as such.
One more in the -- I think you have a microphone already, yes, please.
Tsitsi Griffiths from Federated Hermes. My first question is about the integrated power business. So you talked about reaching a self-funded or self-financed status in a couple of years. It will be interesting to understand which of the segments between the power trading, renewables or flexible generation will contribute the most towards that self-funded status? Or do you expect an equal contribution from those 3 business pillars?
My second question is about your position at the North Sea. So you talked about the Norwegian Continental Shelf. You talked about your position in the Barents Sea, but there wasn't a lot of discussion about your position in the North Sea, especially considering the restrictions on new licenses by the U.K. government. So just to understand what your outlook is, do you believe you're in a competitive position? Or do you see potential to sort of improve or sort of widen your participation in that region?
Thank you very much for your question. And I -- Helge is really eager to talk about the power business and Kjetil also on the North Sea afterwards.
So the positive contribution will come from offshore wind that is by far the biggest. And then we also expect a positive contribution from trading in terms of the self-funding over that period. When it comes to flexible generation, also batteries, we will be in a growth -- very much in the growth phase. So that will then be negative towards the self-funding, but very positive towards the growth. So that's the short answer.
And then Kjetil?
So on the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea and the split between the exploration efforts that we are doing in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea and the southern part of the NCS is a 50-50. So still 50% of the exploration wells will be in the southern part of the NCS. And with respect to what are the U.K. opportunities, that will be a part of the Adura thing, but there are some cross-border opportunities that we're looking into. Last year, we confirmed the Fling oil leg that is going to be developed. So there are some cross-border opportunities that we're also looking into. But the split between the North Sea and the northern part is 50-50.
Thank you. We will revert to the room. I have more on the list, but let's do a couple on the phone. And first, we will go to Matt Lofting from JPMorgan.
I'll put 2 quick ones. First, on the international business to 2030, the delivery there looks critical to meeting longer-term cash flow objectives. So I wondered if you could break down perhaps some of the key milestones and deliverables that you see for the next, say, 2, 3 years to signal derisking of the longer-term cash flows through that business?
And then secondly, I wondered if you could just expand on the philosophy on capital allocation in some respects, when I look at how the allocations have evolved and how CapEx has evolved since the beginning of this decade, arguably, there's been a degree of procyclicality to it, particularly through the low carbon and power business in response to the cycle. I just wonder what learnings the company has taken from that when you take stock and how you see that and learn from that looking forward as an organization.
Yes. Thank you very much. And kind of for the international business, there are some key milestone now to deliver. And Philippe and Geir, they are working really hard together to make sure that we can derisk that portfolio. The first one, of course, to bring Bacalhau up to plateau, as Philippe mentioned.
And with very good well delivery, we are moving on that direction. And by having this on plateau by end of this year. The next big project is Raia in Brazil. This is a gas condensate field that will deliver 50% of the gas needs in Brazil, and that will come on stream in 2028. And that -- so that is a key milestone for us for that project. Then also the Rosebank, which is within Adura, but we have been doing the project execution from day 1, bringing Rosebank in 2027, 2026, 2027 will be a milestone and the Sparta field development in Gulf of America where Shell is the operator. I think that's the main milestone we will do. Sparta is also in '28, if I remember correctly.
So we follow very much very short, Bacalhau ramp-up, Raia delivery, Sparta and Rosebank and having those delivered, we have derisked the international portfolio. So -- and thank you for these questions about CapEx and CapEx allocation, capital allocation. And of course, we had a totally different view of the market in -- for instance, if you talk about the renewable business 5 years ago. But we very quickly saw that the leases prices went very, very high up. We actually stopped them, although we had allocated CapEx to those type of projects, but we decided not to do them, hence, that we have reduced the CapEx.
So we have worked through this internally, and you will see that the plan we're bringing forward today is not a plan with CapEx allocated, the potential projects and so on. It's really the projects that we have in the portfolio that we are going to execute. And then we have some flexibility on the CapEx profile such that we're able to capture those good projects or business opportunities as they come along, for instance, an extra exploration well, et cetera. So the way we are allocating CapEx and presenting CapEx today is different from what we did 4, 5 years ago.
Thank you, Anders. We'll take one more on the phone. The next one is Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.
Just 2, please. The first one is just on the international portfolio. You've spent several years reducing your footprint and really you only mentioned U.K., U.S. and Brazil in the last few CMDs. And this CMU, you've broadened out your international focus and talked about a bit more openness to new countries and basins. Can you just talk about what is driving that shift? Is it just a function of the environment or something else?
And then second question is just on the comments around Orsted and stronger collaboration. What's not clear to me is whether the people on the other side of the table have the same view. So could you say whether your discussions with the management team there and the Board, whether they're receptive to the idea of greater collaboration? And obviously, you don't have a Board member, and that would have been a way to help align your views there. But just some more color on that would be helpful.
Yes, Philippe, on the international business.
Yes, first, well, it's important to say that even in the core countries, there are -- we see quite a lot of additional potential. Big stand-alone potential in Brazil. This was mentioned a couple of times, but also in the U.S., Argentina has some potential. What is different is that we do see, for example, in Angola, that the commercial terms are changing, making some of our exploration prospects much more commercial attractive than they were a few years ago. And that changes.
This is the difference between Greater PAJ being approved and FID soon, we hope, and Greater PAJ being completely in our shelves before. So we see a lot of opportunities unlocking in Angola, both the kind of traditional IOR ILX, but also stand-alone opportunities. Bay du Nord could be a basin opener, in the sense that we might be able to duplicate a mini model version of what we do on the NCS around and from Bay du Nord and in the same way as we could do also replicate the NCS model in Angola because in a way, Angola is kind of 15 years behind the NCS, so we can duplicate and replicate the same formula there to create more value.
Yes. And to Biraj regarding Orsted, as I said earlier, no news, no change in position on that one. We are collaborating with Orsted. It's generally kind of in the industry environment we are today, but there is kind of no news regarding kind of how we will collaborate in the future.
When it comes to the Board seat that you asked about, we have said clearly that we wanted the Board seat, but we also said to Orsted before the Board selection that the time was not now. We should have said that a little bit clearer externally as well. So it hadn't created that confusion.
We will revert to questions on the phone, but we'll go back to the room first, and I have Alastair Syme in Citi here at the front table.
I had a couple of questions on the power strategy. The first is about if there's a role for flex gen gas. I mean, clearly, you've got that in the U.K. with Teesside. But do you think you need it in other countries, particularly in Northwest Europe? And then secondly, do you think the business stays as a B2B business? Or do you think to capture the full value chain, you need some B2C as well?
So in all the markets that we addressed on power, we believe you're going to need a mix of intermittent renewables, which is going to be by far the fastest growing in all of these markets. And then you're going to need flexibility to back it up. So in all these markets, we are looking at options with -- on the flexible side as well, both batteries and the flexible generation. So that could be in other places in Europe as well. But in those markets where our gas is landing and where we also have other power presence.
It is also quite interesting in the U.S. being a physical market. There, there can be opportunities where we can connect Philippe Mathieu's gas from Appalachia directly to power plants, and that is giving us a very different risk profile than people that would not have that gas, which then can translate into further agreements with data centers, et cetera. So there are the type of opportunity space that we would typically be looking at.
And when it comes to B2B or B2C, we will never go into the B2C business. That is not what we are good at. But both Helge and Irene are working very, very good with business customers, and that's how we build our business with a strong business-to-business relationship. And as Irene alluded to, this has been particularly strong now during the crisis we have seen lately.
Let's go to Paul Redman.
Paul Redman from BNP Paribas. Yes, I've got 2 questions. The first one was just on CFFO uplift. So you've got a $4 billion swing in CFFO between '28 and 2029. So I wanted to ask what are the key drivers of that swing within that year?
And then a similar question, I'm trying to make this all part of one question. You also get a big uplift between 2030 and 2035. And what I'm trying to understand with that uplift is I see production flat. I think -- sorry, production declining. I think the scenario is flat and you're getting about $5 billion uplift between 2030 and '35. So I want to kind of understand there.
My second question is just on buyback. You guide to a range and that doesn't start until 2027. I wanted to ask why in 2026, you've only guided to $3 billion of buyback when you could have gone to possibly the top of the range you're guiding forward.
Yes. So let's start with the buyback. So we wanted to be predictable for 2026 when -- on the back of increased cash generation. We had $1.5 billion with the increased cash generation in the first half. We looked at the increased cash and we said, okay, let's be predictable, but we will -- we have decided it to be $3 billion.
When it comes to the new framework, we decided let's start with that in 2027 because then we are both today be able to say to you a predictable share buyback level for 2026 and also a predictable framework for 2027 and onwards. So this has been a judgment call using the financial framework that Torgrim outlined on and so on and we landed on $3 billion and implementing the new framework from 2027. And then I think it's based on your slide '27 to '28 cash flow.
Yes. So thanks, Paul, for a very good and detailed questions. So it's actually driven by 3 things. In '28, there's still sort of a tax lag effect in the numbers. But because if you look at the price curve that we use, it's sort of a falling price. So that is, if you adjust for that, the number in '28 would have been above $20 billion.
Then in '29, there is significant cash flow coming in from growth in international E&P business. That is with low cash -- low tax and clearly contributes very strongly to the cash flow. And the last one is actually the step-up in the power business with more and more offshore wind coming on stream. And then power is going to contribute with $1 billion in cash flow from operations in 2030, a little bit less than that the year before. But altogether, those are the 3 elements driving that growth.
And when it comes to the indicative around '30, '35 is really based on we are now growing the cash flow towards 2030. We are doing that to be a stronger company. And I think you also saw in both Philippe's presentation and also in Kjetil's presentation that we have a lot of opportunity sets and the risk reserves are quite several billion -- many billion barrels.
Within the capital frame that we have -- the CapEx frame we have put forward today, we have the opportunity to develop those further and work on it. So this is -- with this clear kind of 2030 strong portfolio, delivering on that one, but also with the opportunity set we have now towards 2030 and beyond, we have an aim to continue growing the cash flow to 2035, but we are not going to guide on any numbers of it. But we have improved our business. And I think what we have shown today is that we're constantly improving our business, and we're not going to stop now. We're going to continue with that, and that's why we dare to put forward that we see and we aim for continuous growth in our cash flow from operation also beyond 2030.
Let's move to Mark Wilson from Jefferies here at the second table.
Mark Wilson, Jefferies. I'd like to firstly ask on the integrated power. The way that's spoken about now is obviously more integrated. Last year, there was an explicit 10 to 12 gigawatt renewables capacity by 2030. Could you just tell us where that now sits by 2030 within the broader integrated power and Danske Commodities? And I noted CO2 storage, is that target of 30 to 50 by 2035? Is that retired now? So those are the questions on renewables integrated power.
Then in the NCS, obviously, a very clearly outlined program going forward and something that the industry can work with, as you mentioned, Anders. But could you just highlight, are there any particular bottlenecks you see in the contractor industry in order to deliver on that longer term?
Yes. I'd like to invite Helge and Irene also to allude a little bit on the development on the CO2 and also on the integrated power. But let me just say, we put forward some targets for renewable, 10 to 12 gigawatts, some years back. But we always have been clear and the same also for the CO2 transportation and storage. But we've always been clear we want to create a profitable business.
What we have seen for the renewables is that with higher costs and quite expensive lease rounded, U.K. round 4, U.S. 5 and Germany, we avoided moving into that one, and we have -- our pipeline is then thinner than we thought. We have seen for several years that we will not reach that 10 to 12, and we have never changed it either. So we -- and Helge, I think we'll be around 7 -- 6, 7 gigawatts to 2030. But -- and the same goes a little bit for CO2. We still have an ambition to grow in that business, but we have seen that businesses that want to decarbonize, they invest in decarbonization at a slower pace than we thought some years ago or what they indicated in a market service they wanted to do in the past.
And that meaning that we cannot chase an ambition and take those kind of investments on speculation. So we will continue improving and building our power business with also renewables in that power business at the same time, also pursue the CO2 business. So first, Irene, you can say a little bit about the status on our transportation and storage of CO2 and Helge follow up.
I can do that. I think it's fair to say that we're world leading in this space. We have taken FID on 2 projects in Norway and a couple of ones in the U.K. We're developing first CCGT with CO2 capture, which I think the world will increasingly need going forward. What we have seen though is that inflation has hit us at the same time as the cost of emitting CO2 has come down, meaning that the missing money gap has increased at the same time as politicians and nations, I guess, who would have to put in money has less to spend, refocusing on defense spending, social budgets, et cetera.
So customer alone cannot lift this. It needs to be a public-private partnership, and there's no ground for that. So I think when it comes to the target itself, we have secured enough storage space. So we can deliver on that target should the market be there, but we will not run ahead of the market.
And Helge?
Yes. In the markets that we see going forward, we really want to take a cluster approach. It's our integrated power strategy, and we do that for a few markets. That meant we don't really have space in our portfolio to do a lot of single big investments outside of these markets, which was the plan before, as you talked about, then it would have been Korea, Japan, Australia, France, Spain. And we're not looking at that anymore. So that has been quite a bit of a change.
And then the potential bottlenecks on the Norwegian continental shelf to deliver on those ambitions.
Yes. I could elaborate a bit on that. The short answer is no, but I'll try to say some more about it. If you look at the 3 segments that we need equipment and so on, it's the brownfield scope, it's the rigs and it's the subsea equipment.
On the brownfield with respect to engineering and workforce, that will be ample of capacity in Norway end of this year, beginning of next year. So that will not be a bottleneck. On the rig side, we are in a lucky situation on the NCS that we don't need these high-end rigs, and we have rigs in our portfolio, and we are quite attractive with respect to the duration of the contracts that we're putting out in the market. So we believe and think we're going to be quite good there as well.
And then on the subsea side, that is an international market. and we are exposed to that. What we see is that due to the really, really big scope that we have going forward that we are very attractive to the major suppliers in that area and especially when we are so clear on the standardization because then they are able to do the work a bit quicker than what they've done before. So it is no, but with the insight that I gave on the 3 segments as well.
Thanks, Kjetil. We'll go to the front left here with Anders Rosenlund from SEB.
I'll just ask one question, hoping for a crystal clear answer. I was kind of hoping for a comment about international production also in 2035, but the presentation didn't include that. But I noticed that Philippe said that he expected or he saw room for growth also between 2030 in the international operation. So my question is, is there any reason to expect 2035 production international lower than 2030?
I think the main message was that we're going to try to work for that to not happen. So we're looking to further grow the cash flow and the production from the international based on the $4.5 billion of reserves that we have that I showed on the option space. We do have quite a bit of growth also beyond 2030. If we manage to get Bay du Nord on stream. We have Greater PAJ, which also is going to contribute beyond 2030 and then exploration stepping up where we are and looking at new basin, new exposure. So that's definitely the ambition to get this way.
I think just to add one thing is what I asked Philippe to do is to really deliver and he does together with Geir now on the portfolio. We talked about derisking that portfolio to deliver towards 2030, but at the same time, creating those possibilities that such we are able to also have growth towards 2035. And that's exactly what Philippe and his team is doing now, but also utilizing Hege and Geir and the competencies in those 2 organizations to be able to deliver on that. You have something to add, Torgrim?
Yes. I think on the point of Bay du Nord, which Philippe is talking about the cash flow per barrel is very, very high in the structure. And what really matters for us is cash -- sort of the growth in cash flow more in the growth in barrels. So I just want to say that Bay du Nord is contributing even more to the cash flow growth than to the production growth. And that's sort of very important for us to measure.
Henri Patricot from UBS.
Two follow-ups, please, on the upstream. The first one on the NCS 2035 target. I was wondering how you would compare the risk around that new updated target versus the one that you had 2 years ago. I think Kjetil mentioned that 2 years ago, you had 75% of it proven. Now you have 85% proven. So is there more upside potential to that target today? And then secondly, on the international business, you mentioned the potential farm-ins. Just wondering to what extent that's -- what you'd be looking for and to what extent that's dependent on your own exploration success that would be effectively a second option if you don't actually have as much success in existing opportunities?
That was for the international business?
International, yes.
So for the NCS because I can give you my view. Kjetil is very confident. And I'm very confident based on what I see the -- how the organization work, how I see Kjetil and his team, they are approaching the task really kind of diving into identifying new IRR opportunities, new exploration opportunities, utilizing the competence in the organization and constantly improve the reserve base as you have seen today.
And we are -- with so many opportunity sets in the portfolio and with 45 exploration discoveries since the last 3.5 half year gives me the confidence that Kjetil and his team will deliver on that. Then Geir showed you something else that gives me the confidence, the drilling, the drilling performance that has constantly improved over the last years, 10 rigs less to drill the same amount of wells. That is quite a high efficiency improvement, and we're working to continue to do that even further. And with Hege and her team's contribution, bringing new technology into all of this business, either technology that we can standardize on or new AI technology that bring us to the next level.
So on that -- with that respect, I feel quite confident that we are able to deliver on this. Upsides, yes. As Kjetil said, and now the high-impact wells in the Norwegian Sea that I mentioned and in total, 20% of the 250 wells. We have not included any volumes into our production outlook for making larger discoveries. And Kjetil mentioned, he's looking for new listings and so on. So I would also say that with exploration success, there are quite a lot of upsides into this number as well. But those will come a little bit longer out in time, obviously. And Philippe, on the international business.
So on the farm-ins, this would be a mix of farm into exploration licenses even before first well. We've entered 18 blocks together with Shell and MPG in Angola, and that's before first drilling. We just signed yet another farm-in into a TOTAL block in 16/21 in Angola. That was announced a couple of days ago, again, pure exploration. We'd be looking also to go into maybe farm-in into prospects that have proven resources. And then trying to also do the similar type of high grading that we have done for producing assets, looking at our exploration portfolio and potentially diversifying our exposure. For example, to Mariner, we have 100%. We're not going to stay at 100%. We can use that as a trading chip to get something else.
Back to the NCS, I just wanted to give a little bit of insight in the way we think about planning around these things because when we put forward numbers externally and guiding, we need to be very comfortable with that. And we need to be fairly certain that we can deliver even if they are ambitious. And I think I hope you can look to the past or track record in this, meaning that we are not taking all the ambitions from the NCS 2035 into the plan and into the numbers you have seen.
So I mean, the plan -- the ambitions are a 50% reduction in cost and 50% reduction in time from discovery to production. And I do believe Kjetil that you will deliver, but you haven't put it in all yet. So there's more to come.
Then we go to Sadnan Ali from HSBC, please.
Sadnan Ali, HSBC. Two, please, both on distributions. The first one, if I go back to the 1Q results when you held the buybacks at $1.5 billion and the question was asked, how come you didn't look to raise yet? I believe the response was something along the lines of we would only look to make an uplift based on cash earned at the time. Obviously, today, you increased the buyback. We haven't had a full quarter of results yet.
So I guess part of my question is, to what extent is that -- was that a response saving for today? Or to what extent is that genuine and then therefore, with the 2Q results based on those results, there could be an uplift or something further based on cash earned at the time?
The second question, again, on distributions. I just want to focus on the word competitiveness. If I count it correctly, I think in your presentation, you used the word competitiveness 14 or 15x solely in regards to distributions. It's obviously been a recurring theme in recent quarterly presentations and CMDs as earlier today.
And I guess, putting it bluntly, it feels that you used the word competitiveness a lot, but it seems that you don't really illustrate it directly in your presentation or graphically or quantifiably. I appreciate the nuances of the tax effects as you responded earlier today. But yes, to simply put it bluntly, why don't you just show us that comparison on a more quantifiable basis or on a chart, for example?
Yes. Thank you for that comment. You take the first question, and you can elaborate a little bit more. But we want to demonstrate that we have a shareholder distribution that is transparent, predictable and also credible. And what we have worked really hard about is to increase the cash flow from operation, increase the free cash flow such that you are able to see that what we put forward is a predictable and credible shareholder distribution plan, which in total, with also the small caveats that Torgrim mentioned, in total is competitive compared to our peers. It is complicated.
And that's why kind of it could be easy to put out a CFFO percentage and so on as a competitor, so that would be much easier. But over the tax lag and so on, it becomes really, really complicated. So we have decided that by being more predictable, making sure that we are absolutely credible with free cash flow and that we are cash flow neutral down to $50 and so on, we can put forward that we think that it's really, really competitive in totality. And if you do all the small calculation as well, as Torgrim mentioned, you come up to something similar as our competitors. So that's how we've been working. But I take your comment on the number of times we have used the word.
On the 1.5 that we said in the beginning of the year, we had a question on the first quarter, what to come, if there was something coming in the rest of the year, we said it was a little bit too early. Well, so far this year, I mean, there is a significant increase in the cash flow for the year. So we are doubling that to $3 billion.
Important for me to say that this is the guiding for the full year, and you should not expect us to up that in the remainder of the year. We are going to prioritize strengthening of the balance sheet for the rest of the year. And then from next year, it is the new framework that will be used. So I just don't want you to run away with a big expectation on that.
When it comes to sort of competitiveness, I think it's your job to make up your mind whether you find it competitive. I can't sort of tell you what you should think about that. What we can talk about is sort of how we think about capital allocation and how we can create best value for our shareholders in totality. And we do think that what we have put forward today is a good balance for that. And then the tax lag on the NCS is complicating everything. We just want to say we'll take care of that. You can use the prices, the ranges and you can get great expectations, and we will manage the fluctuations in the cash flow due to the tax lag as such.
We'll take one from the phone, and that's James Carmichael from Berenberg.
Just coming back to the -- quickly. I think you've outlined the undiscovered resource potential across the NCS. I think a significant proportion of the undiscovered resources are sort of thought to be in tight reservoirs. Some of your Norway specific peers have been pretty clear on how they've been building expertise in that area to make sure they're well positioned to be lowest cost, most efficient, et cetera, in those types of projects.
Just interested to hear your thoughts around that. Is it something that feeds into your planning? And I guess how technology is helping to unlock some of those opportunities. And then just secondly, you removed the 15% to 30% leverage guidance. I appreciate you put the sort of price ranges around the buyback. But just wondering how we should think about balance sheet sort of guardrails or any specific metrics that we should think about in a downside scenario where that buyback might come under pressure.
James, it was a little bit hard to hear.
But Kjetil is already raising his microphone, ready to answer.
No, I think I understood the question. I think it was about tight reservoir and what is the potential of that on the Norwegian Continental Shelf and what have we done as a company. I think that was the question that was raised. First of all, there is a huge potential within tight reservoirs of the NCS. A lot of resources has been found. And up to now, it's been done nothing with it because there are other things to be handled on the NCS.
But lately, we, as a company, has started to take the experience that we gained from the U.S., in fact, and then stimulations on some of our fixed drilling rigs. So on Statfjord and especially Gullfaks, we have seen quite good results with respect to stimulating the tight reservoirs that we have in Norway as well. So that is a big potential. It's going to be the next wave of increased recovery initiatives on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.
The big thing now is to also have high pro-fracs with respect to this also for the mobile rigs, and that's what we're going to do now, look into how we could utilize this technology, not only from the fixed rigs, but also from the mobile rigs. So there is a huge potential. We have done quite a lot, but up to now on the fixed rigs. Now it's about doing it for mobile rigs as well.
And the guardrails, Torgrim?
Yes. So we took away the guiding because we didn't find it a useful tool to communicate with our investors about because, I mean, it didn't serve the purpose. In times with high prices, we typically would like to strengthen the balance sheet to enable us to be consistent and also invest in low prices and be competitive when it comes to capital distribution in low prices.
So the framework we're now putting forward related to share buyback, that's sort of within the range, you should expect us to use the prices to establish a level within that range. Then sort of outside the range, if prices are above $80 and $11 gas, clearly, that gives capacity to do more. But then we would like to strengthen the balance sheet. If prices are below the ranges, we will take a more holistic approach as such. And -- but clearly, there will be considerations made related to it.
Remember, in a $50 environment, we are able to invest and grow and pay cash dividend as such. And so that sort of reflections of what can happen around the guardrails. But I think I also would like to be with you, we have had a situation over the last year with significantly negative net debt, and we used the opportunity to return $54 billion to shareholders. So I think in this -- with this guardrails, it still is a willingness for us to pay back surplus cash when that sort of is sensible and the right thing to do.
I have one in the back there on table number three. And then I have Teodor on my list. And while we get the question now, I will look at you all to see if we have overlooked anybody, and then we'll conclude afterwards.
Jared Anderson with S&P Global Platts. Irene had mentioned that the U.S. oil and gas trading business had benefited from the growth of data centers and that there could be an opportunity to add physical assets. Can you just add a little more color around that?
Yes. Irene?
I might also look to Helge for that. But I think we kind of early on saw that there was a big uptick in data centers in the Appalachian or the PGM market. And at that point in time, we didn't really have a strategy to justify going in, taking physical assets, but we decided to do contractually. So basically selling the gas on the spark spread, which allows us to take advantage of that. So -- but with Helge, we are jointly working together to see if it does make sense to add physical assets in that area as well.
So imagine you're planning on building a data center. If you look at the cost per gigawatt of these data centers, you're in a very different league than what we're talking about when it's about the gas production, right? So what you really want to secure is that you have that power and you have it for that duration of that data center.
In the U.S., the gas markets are physical. It's not like in Europe where you have a big liquid hub where everybody can go and buy for the next few decades and basically no matter what. So if we come in there, we will actually have that predictability. So together in the right partnership, we think that we can have something extra to bring in that constellation because it's about security of supply, basically being a reliable energy producer. And I think that gas position in the U.S. is special in that sense. Happy to discuss more in the breakouts as well if you want to continue on that one.
I would just add, when we talk to customers, they want physical gas to back it up, but they also want a very robust balance sheet. So I think Torgrim is also helping in that respect.
Then we'll do the final question, Teodor Sveen-Nilsen from Sparebank.
Year-to-date production has been very strong, particularly in Norway. Why don't you increase production guidance for this year?
Yes. So first of all, first quarter, really, really good, fantastic work from all our people, high production efficiency. We saw the projects that Geir and his team put in place in Castberg, Halten Øst and so on, all of them contributed very, very well. So we are off to a very good start. But we are still in second quarter and third quarter in the maintenance and turnaround season. What I can say, we keep the production target at 3%, but we feel very confident about that production increase and even more confident than when we put it forward. But we keep it at 3%, as we said in February.
And regarding summer maintenance, are you able to push some of that back given the high oil and gas prices? If you -- are you able to delay some of the maintenance this summer season because the prices we see now?
Well, we have not delayed any of our maintenance. This is a learning also from the 2022 crisis. We had some deliberately change in maintenance season then to help out Europe. But in the long run, we are always better off making sure that our platforms have the technical integrity, they are maintenance when they should be maintenance. In that respect, we're able to keep up the high production, high production efficiency over the long term. So that's why this year, we have followed all our plans so far, so good and very good production over the first quarter and also towards the second quarter.
Thank you. And I think that concludes the Q&A session. So I want to thank all participants for joining and for asking your questions. We will now, for those who attend here, move on to lunch. It will be one floor down. So it's out in the back of this room and then down to the right.
Afterwards, you are invited to join the breakout sessions. And if you have signed up for that on the back of your name tag, please don't check now because all the sounds -- sounds like breaking glass. But on the back of your name tag, there is an A, B or a C, and that indicates which room you will be in for that breakout session. If you are unsure about this or if you are not registered to participate, you can talk to any of us in the IR team. Later, you are also invited to join the closing bell ceremony. So that concludes the plenary session. Thank you all very much.
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Equinor — Analyst/Investor Day - Equinor ASA
Equinor — Analyst/Investor Day - Equinor ASA
Equinor präsentierte auf dem Capital Markets Day eine klare Wachstums- und Kapitalverteilungsstrategie: mehr Energie, steigender Cashflow und planbare Ausschüttungen.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: Fokus auf Norwegian continental shelf (NCS), gezieltes internationales Upstream‑Wachstum und ein integriertes Power‑Geschäft, alles getrieben von Standardisierung, Technologie und Trading.
- Kapital: Dividende als Priorität (jährl. >5% Wachstum), Buybacks 2026 $3 Mrd., Rahmen $2–4 Mrd./Jahr von 2027 bei Öl $60–80/bl und Gas $7–11/MMBtu.
- Performance: Ziel: mehr Energie, wachsende Cashflows und „superiore Returns“ bis 2030; Free Cash Flow (FCF) >$40 Mrd. bis 2030 in $70/bl‑Szenario.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- NCS: Neue operating‑modelle, Standardisierung und KI‑gestützte Exploration; 6–8 Subsea‑Tiebacks p.a., erste 3 Wellen bringen ~500 Mio. barrel Ressourcen.
- International: Fokus auf Brasilien, USA, Angola, UK; internationale E&P soll ~50% des FCF bis 2030 liefern; Produktion international +30% auf ~950 kbd.
- Power & Trading: Power als eigenes Geschäftssegment, integrierte Assets + Trading, >20 TWh Erzeugung bis 2030, Power 2027–2030 selbstragend; Trading‑Upside aus Asset‑Backed‑Ansatz.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- CapEx‑Plan: Organisches CapEx $11–13 Mrd./Jahr bis 2030; Aufteilung ~60% NCS, 30% international, 10% Power.
- Invest‑Änderung: +$1 Mrd. Oil & Gas‑CapEx 2027 (Vorphasen, Angola, Exploration) und Verdopplung der Buybacks 2026 auf $3 Mrd.
- Technologie: Breiter KI‑Einsatz (Seismik, Planung, Betrieb), Subsea‑Standards sollen Zeit zu First Oil von ~7 auf 2–3 Jahre drücken.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- CapEx‑Details: Nachfrage nach Herkunft des zusätzlichen $1 Mrd. ⇒ Management: Vorziehen/Accelerate von NCS‑Tiebacks, Angola (Greater PAJ) und Exploration in Brasilien.
- Distribution & Bilanz: Warum $3 Mrd. 2026 statt höher? ⇒ Management betont Stärkung Bilanz H2/26, neues Buyback‑Rahmenwerk ab 2027; Nettoverbindlichkeiten sollen sinken.
- Risiken & Umsetzung: Fragen zu Lieferketten/Service‑Kosten, Realisierung der NCS‑Targets und Power‑Self‑funding; Management verweist auf Standardisierung, Marktreaktionen und bewusste Kapital‑Disziplin.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Für Aktionäre bedeutet das CMD mehr Planbarkeit: steigende CFFO/FCF‑Ziele, klarere Buyback‑ und Dividenden‑Signale sowie wachstumsorientierte, renditestarke Projekte. Kurzfristig bleibt die Performance von Commodity‑Preisen, Lieferketten und der operativen Umsetzung abhängig.
Equinor — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Equinor ASA
1. Management Discussion
[Audio Gap]
So we close the vote.
We have had content from DNB that there's a majority in favor of the proposal have been chosen to sign the meetings with the chair of the meeting. The [indiscernible] now on to Item 6 concerning the approval of the annual financial statements and Europe as well as the dividend for the fourth quarter of 2025 as management contributions questions and comments relating to item 7 to 15 will be combined with [indiscernible] Item 6. For those of you who wish to comment by Lumi, please state which item your comment is related to.
Annual [indiscernible] the annual report as well as the audit report and the corporate establish statement are included in the annual report, which all are available on the company's website. And I give the floor to the Chair of the Board, [indiscernible]
Thank you [indiscernible] and good afternoon to everyone attending this year's Annual General Meeting, both those of you who are here at Fortis and those who are online. I will now present the Board's view on the business and the proposed dividend, the Board statement on corporate governance and the Board's recommendations regarding proposals made by shareholders later, under Item 16, I will present the remuneration of senior executives at Equinor.
Last year was yet another year with geopolitical turmoil that affected energy markets. In turbulence, reliable energy supplies from a company such as Equinor is even more important. The most important thing that the Board management and employee nor is to make sure that it's safe to work both in and for the company. In 2025, the company had strong safety results with a serious incident rate of 0.21 per million hours worked. These are the best safety results in the company's history, and it is due to systematic and good work. Simultaneously, a colleague lost his life at [indiscernible] in September.
Both this tragic accident and others have been high important on the Board's agenda and it's been a topic of discussion between the Board and the management. Safety is a topic in all Board meetings and also Central and the Board's subcommittee concerning safety, security, sustainability and ethics. The incident in 2025 has been followed up by the management thoroughly so that we can learn and improve I will now address the board's view the Board's work and dividend and corporate governance. These are items 6, 7 and 15 on the agenda first. Let me say a few words about how the dividend is determined and what we're asking the Annual General Meeting to decide on today. The Board approved dividends for the first to third quarters on the basis of authorization from the General Meeting.
The Annual General Meeting approves for the fourth quarter and the total dividend for the year based on a proposal from the Board. In 2025, Equinor has had a competitive capital distribution, including share buybacks of approximately USD 9 billion. The Board proposes to the AGM that for the fourth quarter of 2025, one pays out a dividend of USD 0.39 per share. Like previous years, the Board is also asking the AGM for authorization to decide on quarterly dividends until the next Annual General Meeting takes place.
In a separate item, we also propose authorization for buying back shares. The Board has overall responsibility for the governance of the Equinor Group and on just both management and day-to-day operations. Additionally, the Board has established control assessment to ensure the compliance with laws and regulations, ethical guidelines and the owner's expectations. [indiscernible] are followed. The Board deals with in particular, with important and extraordinary matters and has the option of requesting to deal with [indiscernible] they want to deal with.
An annual plan for the Board's work has been drawn up and it's updated regularly twice a year. There are separate Board meetings where strategy is the topic and the entire group management participates. Additionally, we have dedicated discussions on risk landscape, at least twice a year. The energy transition is also a key item on the agenda. It is raised at all ordinary Board meetings, either as part of strategic and investment-related assessment or a separate items.
As a part of the development of knowledge and skills, the Board delved deeply in the following topics in 2025. European and U.S. energy policy. Equinor's geopolitical decision and how changes in the U.S. policy may affect the company oil and gas technology geopolitical context and energy perspectives, 2025 strategy strategic supplies towards 2035, and the energy transition value.
The Board had 8 ordinary meetings and 5 extraordinary meetings in 2025. Members of the Board's committee for safety, security sustainability and ethics as well as other members of the Board. This is Northern Lights and Coles. During the year, elections were held in the corporate assembly for both shareholders and employee representative members of the Board: [indiscernible] stepped down from the Board whilst [indiscernible] elected to the Board.
So I will now address the proposals submitted by the shareholders, that is items 8 to 14 on the agenda. The Board's recommendation is that the general meeting vote against the proposals and the reasons for this are set out in the material distributed prior to the meeting. I would nevertheless like to comment on the issues raised. On shareholder proposal concerns reporting on strategy for specific demand scenarios was another shareholder proposal concerns reporting on financial risk and geopolitical risks associated with certain of the company's activities. The company already reports on strategy, capital allocation, portfolio robustness and risk through various channels, such as the annual report and the energy [indiscernible] all in line with the EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Director.
In addition, both strategy and individual decisions are stress test against several different scenarios for oil and gas demand, financial and geopolitical risk. It is also important in this context to note that the company prioritizes commercial robustness over volume growth to ensure profitability in scenarios with lower demand for oil and gas. More detailed coding may potentially require the disclosures of market sensitive and confidential information. The company has a robust framework for assessing both commercial and geopolitical risks. The Board shares the proposals interest in Equinor having a robust approach to risk and demand scenarios. But at the same time, believes that the company already discloses sufficient information on financial, commercial and geopolitical risks.
Several proposals on the company's organization and portfolio composition, such as the spinoff of the renewable energy business. the divestment of international oil and gas operations or investments in specific countries Ukraine. Both the Board and management regularly reviewed portfolio composition in relation to the company's overall strategy. Financial performance and other relevant factors. This applies to the company's entire portfolio. In line with the principles of good operate governance, including that the company's strategy is determined by the Board we recommend voting against the proposals.
There are also several proposals concerning the company's strategy, the pace of the energy transition, NetZero and the Paris Agreement. Equinor strategy aims for balanced energy concession, where energy security, affordable energy and emissions reductions are weighed up. The Board believes that no strategy supports the goals of the Paris agreement. The energy transition plan was originally published in and received support at the Annual General Meeting following an update in 2025. It provides information on strategy, measures and how we manage climate-related risks to ensure resilience and value creation. The plan reflects our long-term business opportunities in the transition and outlines our path towards net 0 emissions by 2050 as well as our short, medium and long-term ambitions.
At the same time, the energy markets are characterized by uncertainty and variable progress in the energy transition. The pace of investment must be adapted to market conditions and commercial opportunities. We appreciate all the proposal received and the dialogue with the company's shareholders. At this time, the Board is committed to ensuring that all decisions are made on the basis of a comprehensive and long-term assessment and that it is the Board that determines company's strategy. With that, I would like to conclude by thanking CEO, Anders Opedal, and his executive team for their significant contributions to the company. I would also like to thank all employees for the work they do for Equinor every day. I will now hand over to CEO, and thank you for your attention.
Thank you very much, Jamere. Fellow shareholders and participants in the Annual General Meeting. It's great to see you both of the who are here in person and those digitally. I look forward to an extension of us here today. It's the important part of the corporate. The AGM is important part of corporate covenant and for all shareholders can state their views. This is a general meeting with a touch of his historical significance. This year marks the 25th annual other companies listing due to an extraordinary general meeting in connection with the merger of [indiscernible], this is also our Annual General Meeting as a listed company. And in July of this year, a NOK 1,000 billion will have been returned to shareholders since the listing on the stock exchange.
Most of this was to a Norwegian state India, we have paid a lot of tax NOK 2,400 billion since 2001. That represents significant value creation for the company and society. I always begin by talking about safety, and I'll do that today as well. As [indiscernible] said, we had safety results in 2025. And behind these results, like the systematic and hard work employees, suppliers, employee representatives, partners and public authorities. This work has yielded meaningful results at the same time, we continue to experience serious incidents and accidents.
Last September, family lost a loved one and we lost a colleague in a tragic accident at Monster. We must continue our work to prevent accidents. We must investigate in order to learn, and we must continue to improve. We have not succeeded and tell you know that everyone who works for Equinor returns home safely every single day. 2025 was marked by geopolitical turmoil and unpredictability in the turbulent world, our contribution is all the more important, reliable energy supply to the market. We had that in 2024. In fact, we have never before supplied more energy. We set new record with an average production of 137,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. And the backup of these strong results is the hard work of our employees and suppliers throughout the year.
In addition, we achieved several key milestones, which contributed to 2025 production and future production. Here, I would particularly like to highlight the start of production at [indiscernible] and [indiscernible] in Norway as well as the start-up of Bakala in Brazil. Our power business also continued to grow. We consolidated all our power operations and just single business area power, and we also saw a 24% increase in renewable production in 2025. At the same time, the fact that we received 2 stoppage orders for Empire Wind just how important stable framework conditions are for our industry and for energy transition. We also took structural measures in the portfolio with a divestment in the [indiscernible] in Brazil. and the establishment of dura. The latter is a merger or and shales portfolios on the U.K. Continental Shelf. We also signed several long-term gas agreements in 2025, with companies and among others, the U.K., Germany and the Czech Republic. These confirm that European customers want gas from Norway, also for many years to come.
So as the Chairman said, strong deliveries also led to solid financial results. total revenue of $106.5 billion and a competitive capital distribution totaling $9 billion. Behind these figures, lies the tireless efforts by employees, suppliers and partners made possible by authorities, politicians and investors. A huge thank you to you all.
Finally, I would also like to share a reflection on what we are currently witnessing unfolding around us. The situation in the Middle East, and Ukraine is affecting innocent people and is having ripple effects in the energy market prices for what we produce have fluctuated sharply. This reflects a market that is not in balance. We can contribute a reliable energy supplies to the world, something that becomes even more important in turbulent times. -- we predictable times also in the longer term. We are seeing shifting priorities and prospects of an uneven energy transition.
In light of this context, I shared some updated strategic priorities in connection with the fourth quarter. We continue to develop the Norwegian continental shelf, which is the backbone of our company. The international oil and gas business will grow in selected areas. And we will build a competitive integrated power business by combining our renewable portfolio with flexible power generation. All of this is linked together by our trading business, which contributes to increased value creation. The combination of these key priorities and our strategic pillars, always say high-value, low carbon sets the course so that we can continue to deliver reliable energy for a changing world.
The most important job is the 1 that is done every single day by our employees, partners and suppliers. I have already sent you once, but a good thing cannot be said too often. thank you. very much so much for everything you contribute. I would also like to thank the Board and the Chair for their excellent cooperation throughout the year. And finally, I thank you to all of you investors for your contribution to our business. Thank you very much for your attention [indiscernible] for your presentations. So now we move to the shareholder proposals. I'll remind you that there will be an opportunity for questions and comments from the floor -- once all the proposals are being presented, shareholders participating online must submit any questions or comments via Lumi AGM.
Please note that there will be no opportunity for questions and comments later when items 6 to 15 afford to the vote. We will now move to item 8, which is a proposal from the shareholders follow this, [indiscernible] Pension Fund, Mercy Investment Services and all assets management. The proposal is set up in the notice of meeting and is displayed on the screen. The proposal is not present and a representative from Equinor will therefore read out a statement of the shareholders. We will return to any questions, comments as the vote.
Hello shareholders, I'll follow this in support of the resolution requesting that Equinor disclosed its strategy for creating shareholder value under scenarios of declining oil and gas demand. I wish to be precise about what this resolution asks. It does not ask Equinor to abandon its current strategy. It does not presuppose the outcome of the energy transition. It asks how this company intends to generate returns if the market for its principal products contracts. That is a question any prudent investor would expect to have answered. It is not hypothetical. The IEA's stated policy scenario projects oil demand peaking by 2030 and gas by 2035.
The announced pledge scenario projects both peaking before 2030 with combined demand falling 17% by 2035. The IEA's June 2025 oil forecast cooperates that trajectory. So does [indiscernible] independent analysis. These are not fringe projections that represent the emerging consensus of the most credible analytical institutions in the energy sector. Equinor's disclosure acknowledges scenario analysis and the company serves credit, therefore. However, in so far as the disclosed stress testing, addresses price sensitivity, it leaves the most sequential variable on exam. Price is a derivative of demand. a world in which demand and the structural decline is a world in which pricing power erodes. Marginal producers are displaced and only the most cost-competitive portfolio sustained returns.
The question is not what price Equinor can withstand, it is whether Equinor's capital allocation is calibrated to a market that may be fundamentally smaller. We need not speculate how demand contraction affects the company. In 2020, global oil demand fell by approximately 9%. Equinor cut its dividend by 67%. That contraction was cyclical and temporary. The scenarios contemplated herein are structural and sustained. If a temporary 9% decline produced a 2/3 reduction in shareholder distributions, what does the sustained 17% decline per tenant? The resolution requests capital expenditure, production, sales and free cash flow projections on the 2 widely referenced scenarios. It permits the emission of commercially sensitive information. it prescribes no strategic outcome. Most votes on this resolution have already been cast. We are grateful to every shareholder who supported it. and we know to those who did not.
[indiscernible] resolution does not expire with today's ballot. It will remain relevant at every subsequent meeting until it is answered. The Board may treat this resolution as a request. It should treat the underlying question as an obligation. The resolution does not ask Equinor to agree with any particular scenario. It asks the Board to show its work. Question to the Board. I have a question for the Board, which I would ask to be answered substantively rather than by reference to existing disclosures.
In 2020, a temporary 9% decline in global oil demand led Equinor to reduce its dividend by 67%. The IEA's stated policy scenario and announced pledge scenario both project sustained demand declines of significantly greater magnitude over the coming decade. The question is correct. Will Equinor create shareholder value? Specifically, will they sustain or grow distributions to shareholders in the market environment demand for the company's principal products is it structural, not cyclical decline. And if the Board has conducted analysis thereon, what prevents this disclosure to the shareholders whose capital is at risk to [indiscernible].
Thank you. Thank you for your contribution. Then we continue to Case 9 -- Item 9, which is proposed by WWF, Worldwide Life [indiscernible] set out in the notice and shown on the screen. We give the floor to its [indiscernible], who has been given 4 minutes for their presentation. We will return to any questions, comments and the vote -- the floor is yours. Thank you.
Shareholders, board today. We ask for something specific that they present a holistic assessment of geopolitical risk and the [indiscernible] my name is [indiscernible] do the outpacing of fossil fuels and the WWF. I just came back from Santa Marta in Colombia, where 37 countries, including Norway, have met for historic first conference to phase out fossil fuel. Coalition with countries -- the [indiscernible] of countries is now almost more than half of world economy, 30% of the world's population and a great percentage of fossil fuel contribution. The energy transition is on its way globally, and that affects risks in a new projects. So let me just -- let me explain why the risk assessment is necessary in the band social.
The [indiscernible] has limited upside and a clear downside international companies pull out search has been lacking and infrastructure is lacking and investments are great and the time horizon is long. That means high and security about profitability in the future. Secondly, history shows a lot of high costs that they [indiscernible] too high and that may be repeated Arctic conditions gives some security in the operation. We have seen a report that shows that we risk going beyond costs a lot more in the balance season elsewhere 40% compared to 12% in the North Sea and 2% in the Norwegian Sea.
This is not a theoretical assessment based on geographical experience. The third thing is listing seems a lot more expensive than what is the goal of Equinor, but the goal to have a balanced price of $35 a barrel. Listing estimates are much higher. We believe that shareholders need to get an explanation how that risk is being handled the fourth matter is supplanting new gas infrastructure meets a market that is quickly changing and sharpened geopolitical situation. European Union is moving away from fossil fuel and the U.K. does so, too. the demand for Norwegian gas will fall not increase in the years to come.
It's very uncertain, there is a bill to pay for and a need for a new gas pipe in the north. Further search for gas [indiscernible] is a high-risk game with a marginal hope of profitabilities. It varies a lot many are way below what could give profitable operations. a clear financial risk for shareholders. At the same time, we have to look at the security risk, the activity in Russian seas shows a [indiscernible] sabotage on infrastructure and [indiscernible] can have great financial effects. We, therefore, ask Equinor to explain how they assess the total and geopolitical risk in the [ Barents Sea ].
We ask that this presentation is sent by Q3 and 2026. I encourage the general assembly to vote in favor of the proposal. Thank you for your presentation. Then we go to item 10, which is a suggestion for Greenpeace, the proposal is in the notice, and it's displayed on the screen. And I give the floor to the proponent, who has been given 4 minutes for their presentation. We will get back to any questions, comments and the vote. The floor is yours.
Anders Opedal, when you were hired as CEO in Equinor, you said that you would accelerate the development of Equinor as a broad energy company and strengthen renewables. The expectation from Parliament of Norway is that Equinor contribute to a safe and stable future by operating in accordance with the Paris agreement objectives. But under your management, Equinor has in an undemocratic way, went against the expectations of the parliament majority. You brag that the production of oil and gas in Equinor is record high in the middle of [indiscernible] crisis. And you say that Equinor's prospecting department are itching to find more oil, even though you know that more oil will give an uncertain future with more extreme weather. It will send millions of people to flee and reduce access to green water. You also know that Equinor looks for more oil, even closer and closer to land in the Arctic and other vulnerable areas. That threatens nature, especially when we've seen an Equinor under your management, has had a severe oil spill that for the first time hit the shore without Equinor even noticing. And last year, Equinor made a retreat in their their transition plan for the climate. Under Opedal, if you reduce -- you removed the goal that 30% should go to renewables at some point. And now we're again faced with the climate crisis. Equinor gets a lot of money for -- from -- due to [indiscernible] and other people have to pay the bill. We see that this crisis fortunately accelerates the transition to renewables. The European Union and the U.K., the biggest buyers of Equinor Oil and gas are very clear. that's the way ahead for European safety and security and stability is renewable.
And here, Equinor has great opportunities to contribute. But while the world has woken up to ensuing that fossil fuel so dangerous. The only answer from Equinor is to the crisis more oil and more gas. Mr. Opedal, you say that the high prices of oil and gas show that one needs more, but what the high price shows is that the transition to a safe and cheap renewable energy has gone too slowly. And the guilt that is on Equinor's shoulders and other companies who work for fossil fuel and work against transitions. So I hope that shareholders who pay attention today see what the European [indiscernible] and what the U.K. sees that the way ahead to a secure and stable future is renewable energy. We and Greenpeace have therefore suggested that Equinor set goals and start working for a safe and secure future. And that requires absolute reductions in fossil fuels which is in line with the goals of the Paris agreement, support our proposal and contribute to a safe future. Thank you.
Thank you for your contribution. Then we move on to Item 11, which is the proposal from a shareholder [indiscernible]. The proposal is included in the notice of meeting and is displayed on the screen. The floor is given to the proponent who has been given 4 minutes to present. We will return to any questions, comments and of course, votes. The floor is yours.
The background for the proposal. Great disappointment that Equinor has put the break on when it comes to the transition to renewable energy. [ Statoil ] changed the name to Equinor in 2018. And that was supposed to be a signal of change in course. And with the mandate that was given Opedal it was to accelerate Equinor's development as a broad energy enterprise. 5 years into the period, we, however, see that Opedal has pushed the brakes. Equinor has reduced the objective for building for developing renewable MG from 16 to 12 and removed the goal that focus on -- and they've reduced a lot of climate goals for 2030 and onwards.
And when one goes through the energy production of Equinor since they changed the name shows that renewable energy is just an additional activity in the company. Plans for future investments does not show does not indicate that Equinor in the near future will be a force in the global energy transition. In 2024, renewable energy was only 0.6% of Equinor's overall energy production and in the foreseeable future. Renewables will therefore remain a little rather in the company's energy mix.
In 2024, 5x went for investment in oil and gas than to investments in renewable energy. Oil and gas production is expected to increase until 2030. -- should Equinor reach its ambitions for both renewable and fossil energy, the share of renewables in the overall energy production will only amount to between 2.5% and 4.3% in 2030. The let you see from the stat structure and culture is clearly too strong for renewable energy to attain the necessary focus and priority in Equinor.
The renewable part of the company should therefore be -- we've been from Equinor and established as a separate liability [indiscernible] company, that is adequately funded for large-scale production of renewable energy in Norway and globally. Splitting of the company will reduce the internal competition for competence and capital and give renewables come renewable companies, the renewables company, the opportunity to grow in competition with other renewables companies and not in competition with the fossil part of Equinor. This proposal is based on Equinor's duty for the future. It strengthens Equinor's contribution to lower emissions company in the future to benefit future general generations.
You have to look towards the future as a Board. And at the very end, I just want to say, just to quote a few lines from the problem that I had in 2022, while the haves and the world. It doesn't help to change the name. It's a change in reality that we miss.
Thank you for your presentation. We then go to Item 12, which is a proposal from a shareholder [indiscernible]. The proposal is set out in the notice of meeting and is displayed on the screen. [indiscernible] given to the [indiscernible] has 4 minutes for the presentation. We will return to questions, comments and the vote. The floor is yours.
Chair of the Board and shareholders, Equinor has in the last years, had enormous revenue, especially from selling gas to Europe. While Ukraine's energy generation infrastructure is being systematically destroyed by Russia. Equinor has accumulated a [indiscernible] stimulated income of NOK 1,270 billion, only in 2023 and 2024. Russia's attack on Ukraine has made an economic and Norway profiters of [indiscernible] that's at least how others in abroad see us, especially if you look at how much income Equinor and the Norwegian State has got from war and how much little we give back. This result on the ethical side that is important for the reputation of Equinor when it comes to showing responsibility and society in a global perspective. Ukraine has been struck by thousands of targeted and destructive Russian bomb missile and drone attacks on the country cities and energy infrastructure. The World Bank has calculated that the reconstruction of buildings and infrastructure will cost about $588 billion or NOK 5,600 billion over the next few years. These costs continue to grow for each year. Russia extends the wall. The Norwegian government has through the [indiscernible] for Ukraine, allocated only NOK 15 billion in [indiscernible] each year over the next 5 years. Only a fraction of this goes to investment and production of energy in the country. Just a little bit more than a drop in the sea. The need is enormous, while Ukraine is on the verge of bankruptcy.
There have been 4 years of strong cash flow for Equinor and high profitability. It's been driven mainly by high prices for oil and gas. The net income -- the income from 2025 was enormous, and they should share with Ukraine by investing in a small but important part in transition and renewal of the energy infrastructure in the country and help them stop using very polluting sources such as [indiscernible] investments could go to development and operation of windows on land and offshore and battery storage and solar energy. This should happen with Ukrainian energy companies. with cooperation with Ukraine [indiscernible] and Norwegian energy companies who are active abroad. Investments can also turn into something profitable in the future. The investment will also be a contribution to Ukraine's functioning ability to function and European security now and in the future and to reduce climate gas emissions in accordance with the Paris agreement. If not 1.5 degree goal, which seems difficult to reach at least the goal to -- should be possible on [indiscernible] show responsibility, support the proposal.
Thank you for your presentation. We then go to page 13, which is [indiscernible] the proposal is in the notice and it's the state on screen. I give the floor to the [indiscernible] 4 minutes for their presentation. We will return to questions, comments and vote. The floor is yours.
Good afternoon, everyone. Equinor has made Leo and lost a lot on their fossil fuel business abroad. It should be sold. The income must be invested in green 1 has found more fossil energy in the world than the planet can take. And the [indiscernible] was all agreed about that. the money from the Norwegian shelf has financed a lot of such for fossil fuels abroad when the waste and the waste of money in the U.S. was known [indiscernible] proposed that Equinox divests from international projects. The company is now invested in 9 entries. There's no strategic reason for Norway to be involved in oil and gas in countries like the U.S. and Brazil. why is the date to give risk capital abroad, the climate crisis and the need for green energy makes freed capital now should be invested in green projects. Thank you for looking this way under [indiscernible]. That was nice. The green projects will also eventually be profitable financially. [indiscernible], just wait.
By selling out of projects abroad. -- and stopping looking for oil and gas abroad, the company can reduce their financial risk and free necessary capital for green and some energy. But as mentioned, sadly, Equinor has lowered their ambitions concerning renewable activity. So when Anders took over the company in 2020, the mandate was that it should become a broad energy company. But Opedal has lowered his own target for developing renewable energy.
As mentioned in 2025. Equinor dropped their own ambition that at least half of the investment should go to renewable energy and Equinor, as mentioned, produces a very little share of the renewable energy. It's under 1%, the share of renewable and Equinor, it's shameful for every cent the every kroner that is invested in renewable NOK 5 go to fossil fuels. And we know that they plan to increase fossil fuel. This is the status in Equinor 24 years before we are to reach net 0 in 2050. There's an increasing investment and electrification. So that will gradually reduce the demand for fossil energy I just want to remind you yes, I'm making sure half a minute left.
It's time to cut down on what the world needs the least fossil fuels and increase the investment in what it needs the most renewable energy. We are the experienced Elders. We are the drops that hollows out the rock. And there's something that I'm allowed to speak 1 more time because I also represents the doctors' climate action. So I will start that right now Yes, that's fine. Go ahead.
[indiscernible] As I've been to an audience with [indiscernible] half or half an hour, just the 2 of us. We managed to talk about a lot also health, and I give him credit for managing to stop smoking, and he said, had I known that it was so easy, I would have done it a long time ago. There are strict rules for being given in the [indiscernible] in the order, I have to return the metal later perhaps it's to be reduced again. I'm thinking that perhaps [indiscernible] owned mind before because I will probably not have the time to be asked to go to the ball at the Palace. But it's almost like a ball to get to talk to you here. So I ask the general assembly also the people who listen on the webcast. I don't know where the camera is there is. I have to talk to you, too, we have 2 proposals. One is that Equinor must learn about the health effect of the climate changes. In order to run their oil and gas operations with as little as possible damage for the climate. And Equinor must strengthen and go through with their energy plan for the green shift in accordance with the UN will doctors and the Paris agreement, et cetera.
How is it possible to vote against these 2 modest proposals. I don't understand that. the countries who have contributed the least to climate change are the ones that pay the most now floods and droughts and Europe 175,000 people die each year because of heat [indiscernible] of mortality is due to people. And in Norway, there's also floods and avalanches and temperatures that that hurt [indiscernible] season and also dangerous pest, and I will go against the [indiscernible], and I will brought it here I'll put it back in my pocket afterwards just to show you, you see that I speak the truth. And it says I got it for my work for for health, up health in Norway and the world for humanity, be that, but Equinor.
You are a powerful company that can slow this down by balancing oil and gas and renewable energy and go for enable energy. If not, your legacy will having been -- having destroyed good life on the biggest cap [indiscernible] that we correspond with now say [indiscernible], we believe [indiscernible] is investment risk. Because there's no plan B. Thank you.
Thank you for your presentation. Then we should have an overview of all the items to be discussed, and we therefore open for the Chair and CEO statements as well as the shareholder proposals that have been presented. Before I invite you to the podium, address any comments proceed filing AGM. I would like to make a few introductory remarks. Pursuant to Section 15 of the public limited company is a general meeting is not a [indiscernible] for asking questions or seeking comments from other shareholders, including the state represented by the Ministry of Trade Industry and Fisheries. We will now move on to other contributions in the interest of time and to ensure that everyone who wishes to speak has the opportunity to do so, I would remind you to keep your remarks brief and within the time limit of up to 2 minutes. I would ask those who wish to speak to raise their heads. There are several people who wish to speak. The first speaker may come to the podium and introduce them self.
I would ask the representatives [indiscernible] names [indiscernible] to speak and call them to the podium. Go ahead. My name is [indiscernible], I'm a member of the Board of the [indiscernible] climate elections [indiscernible], their general meeting, spend one second contemplating what really matters to me. Care and consideration of children and ensuring a good life for those we come at us. It's very important to me, and I believe it's important to most those who are here. if we think narrowly, the company now is most important, the Board has a responsibility for managing the owner's money our fossil projects abroad a voice investment.
How big is the risk of being left with stranded assets or being sued for climate damage. -- the state, the Norwegian people are the main owners and for us, it's important that Equinor be a solid company for the foreseeable future and that it will ensure employment to good reputation and energy good reputation and not the least, to be a good benefit for this society. Investments in renewable energy cannot compete with oil and gas in the short term. but it's an investment in a long term and investment in terms of generations in a environment and nature is -- it's time to divest from this international Tasso projects spend money and investment in renewable energy. Everybody knows that fossil energy must be phased out participate in the competition in renewable energy or become a focal company in outdated form. So vote in favor of Newlands proposal.
The next -- the list of speakers is [indiscernible] please go ahead. I just want to remind you that you've got 2 minutes from the [indiscernible] climate campaign 4 years ago, my colleague, you a hospital is here at depot surprising everyone with a long pom. And he led all the way back to [indiscernible], and he said an important project, [indiscernible] and he bought now did and they agreed, but the states [indiscernible] urging people to get smart, do the writing, the AGM in should listen to our awards.
The General Meeting in on, there are some -- both [indiscernible] did in 2016, but does everyone know it would have been profitable for the company financially and in terms of reputation, if they had listened to and others in time [indiscernible] reminded us in his presentation at 1.5 degrees is a lot case, we can go towards 2, 2.5 or perhaps even a higher decrease in this century. That means that the oil world and oil in Norway is taking a too big risk on behalf of our grandchildren. And that's why we in the [indiscernible] climate campaign return here year after year, not to bother anyone but because we think that we have right, and we hope that we -- that we be right in time.
Now this [indiscernible] is one the next speaker Go ahead. I'm also from the Grand Paris Climate campaign. I had a comment on the proposals 11. The proposed to divide the company into 1 company for gas and mine for renewables. AGM Board. I briefly want to touch upon why it would be wise to divide Equinor into 2 companies. We have heard about the renewable efforts in the oil company, again or the legacy is too strong and [indiscernible] minor renewable sources. In any way, we are in a position to oil sources. And this applies not to see Equinor, it leads to most oil gas companies. In the -- we see that the 250 biggest oil and gas companies only own 1.42% of the renewable capacity that is in operation globally. And approximately half of that from the acquisition of other companies rather than expansion. That tells us that we cannot trust too much that the oil companies shall invest in renewables. In spite of their ability to invest a lot and expect this -- Equinor is investing less than a local electricity company and that this time that that Equinor is divided into 1 company for oil and gas and another 1 for renewables. So I recommend this proposal.
My name is [indiscernible], but first and foremost, I'm a mom to a beautiful little boy. Equinor oil and gas has a huge and direct impact on the climate crisis. You are not a small player or powers when it comes to shaping future energy demand. The decisions that you, the people here on stage make every single day has huge consequences for my son and for children everywhere. The climate crisis is already causing indescribable pain and suffering all over the world. This is not a crisis that will manifest far into the future. It is here now. In 2030, when my son start school, the UM predicts that severe and frequent climate catastrophes could be the new normal. In 2050, when he graduates University or perhaps is starting his first job, no corner of the planet could be free from extreme heat more than 250 additional people, 250,000 additional people could be killed by the clinic crisis every year from our nutrition disease and heat stress alone and half the human population could be living in areas where there's not enough water. In 2100, when my son is as all the sum of you, the world could be unrecognizable.
Our children could be living in the planet that is 3 degrees warmer, which would cause catastrophic sea level rises, ecosystem collapse and vast land areas becoming uninhabitable, forcing 2 billion people to become climate refugees. That is the future that you are committing my son and children everywhere to, you have the power to make their future safer and more secure. And every day, you choose the [indiscernible] opposite and that is unfavorable. We all deserve a safe future. It is not too late to protect what we value the most. That is why I'm asking all the shareholders and especially the representatives of the Norwegian government to please understand what is so blatantly obvious the Equinor's Board and Equinor's leadership care for nothing else than their own short-term profits, and please vote for [indiscernible] Nordics proposal. Thank you.
As the last speaker from the auditorium. Thank you for letting me conclude this [indiscernible] Dear AGM, Equinor. I'm not going to spend a lot of time speaking about the climate I am fortunate to be working with climate researchers on a daily basis, and it's frightening to see what's happening. And to see the speed, we were hoping that it would it would be slower, but that's not the case. In addition to this, we have the geopolitical situation that you're operating in, and it's difficult, so we understand that. And in addition to that, when you got climate change and geopolitics and then you have energy independence, that's the great issue in the world, and that transition has got a very [indiscernible]
Historically speaking, companies that prioritize growth and value, they will often underperform. And we know that Equinor has historically speaking, been very price optimistic and operated with a higher average oil price than most [indiscernible] not a lone and more. But there still had a sub level and that can lead to be over optimistic concerning earnings on projects, and you've seen that historically speaking. And we think that a lot remains. And there's no doubt that the oil business is a mature business. It will continue for many years, but it is a mature business. And what is a disciplined use of capital in any business probably would be to return the capital return capital to shareholders rather than reinvesting in increasingly expensive and marginal fields.
We have looked at exploration for more photo fuels. And there are very few projects. There's very little exploration since 2000 debt has actually provided value for companies, not just for Equinor, but for other companies as well. Many things indicate that indicate that exploring and infrastructure, that's not the idea, but to explore new areas will be to throw away the shareholders' money.
It's gambling. There have been several proposals here today concerning capital discipline and which path the company is taking and how the company views the world going forward, as provided Monsoon is operating and if one believes that opening new fields, investing a lot more in fossil energy in a world that is in transition and is struggling in the climate crisis, but it would be a good disposition of the shareholders asset. So I hope that the company can state more clearly what your preconditions are in their scenarios for the future. If you that you state how this is going to be profitable for the shareholders.
After this, there will be a [indiscernible] for questions and comments to [indiscernible] and there have also been comments to items outside the items, and they [indiscernible] some questions have been related to case 8 and 9. And these questions are Case 8. Can the Chair of the Board explain why the Board elects management cannot present to report as they are asked to do. In case 9, can the Chair of the Board briefly explain why such report cannot be made when Equinor says they have all the data in accordance as per the Board response. I want to say that the Board has already explained this. in th presentation of the CEO today and online. You are asking for things that have already been established through the governance of [indiscernible].
I give the Chair of the Board wants to give a summary concerning the proposals from shareholders. Also to the question [indiscernible] follow this. [indiscernible], the floor is yours.
Thank you. And smart I think I will start with some lines to the question [indiscernible] in English. The Board fully recognizes that long-term changes in energy demand are a central strategic issue for Equinor and this is explicitly addressed through our scenario analysis and portfolio stress testing, which include energy transition pathways where oil and gas demand is lower than today. Our objective is to create shareholder value across a range of market environments by maintaining a resilient cost competitive portfolio Disciplined capital allocation and financial flexibility. This is also the basis for our approach when it comes to capital distribution. Decisions are based on holistic assessments, not single scenarios, and it is our ambition to grow the annual cash dividend in line with long-term underlying earnings. The comparison with 2020 reflects an extraordinary and temporary shock combined with significant uncertainty at that time. It does not provide a direct analog for how the company would perform under structurally different and more gradual transition pathways. We believe that the disclosures already provided, as is [indiscernible] referred to give shareholders an appropriate and balanced basis to assess Equinor's strategy and long-term value creation.
And then in Norwegian. Thank you to shareholders who are presented their proposals from the rostrum. We greatly value dialogue with our shareholders, and we do that throughout the year in various arenas. There are many opinions about the company leases need to see that many people care about the company, and it's good for the Board and the company that there is a lively debate about it and around it. It challenges us, and it helps sharpen the company. It is also a consequence of the company having an important role in Norway in Europe and also in the world at March. We understand that there are different views among shareholders on several matters. We take note of these views also it matters where there is no consensus.
The Board has, as mentioned, asset all individual shareholder process in writing, and the responses have been made available to all shareholders. The Board stands by its recommendations to vote against the proposals. And on behalf of the Board, I would still like to emphasize again that we greatly value an open debate about the company around the bank company and its priorities and that shareholders are -- have -- that they take an interest in the company and the strategy of the company.
Thank you, Jon Erik. Then we will have a short break approximately 10 minutes, and we need to be back at 4:30 p.m.
[Break]
Then we are back. We are back on Item 6, the approval of the annual accounts and the report for 2020. And I'll give the floor to [indiscernible] who will read except from the audit opinion for 2025 from Annual General Meeting we refer to our audit opinion issued 9 March 2026, which is included in its entirety in the company's annual report on Page 28.
We have audited the financial statements of Equinor ASA, which comprise the financial statements of the company and the consolidated financial statements of the company and its subsidiaries. The financial statements of the company and the group both comprise the balance sheet as at 31st of December 2025, and the income statement, statement of comprehensive income and statement of cash flows for the year then ended and notes to the financial statements, including a summary of material accounting policies.
The consolidated financial statements for the group also comprised the statement of changes in equity. For the audit of 2025 were impact of climate change and energy transition on the financial statements recoverable amounts of production plants and oil and gas assets, assets and development assets classified as held for sale and equity account investments An estimation of the asset retirement obligation is the last in our opinion, the financial statements comply with applicable legal requirements. The financial statements give a true and fair view of the financial position of the company as at 31st of December 2025, and its financial performance and cash flows for the year then ended in accordance with simplified application of international accounting standards according to Section 39 of the Norwegian Accounting Act gives the consolidated financial statements give a true and fair view of the financial position of the group as at 31st of December 2025, and its financial performance and cash flows for the year then ended in accordance with IFRS accounting standards as adopted by the European Union. Thank you for your attention. Thank you, [indiscernible]-- on behalf of the corporate assembly, I will now read out the corporate assembly statement on the Board's proposal.
At this meeting on the 18th of March 2026. The corporate assembly considered the consolidated financial statements of Equinor ASA and its subsidiaries financial statements of the parent company, Equinor ASA and the Board's proposal for the appropriation of the profit for the year in Aquino ASA. The corporate assembly endorses the Board's proposal regarding the consolidated financial statements. The financial statements of the parent company, Equinor ASA and the appropriation of the profit for the year.
The Annual General Meeting presses approved the Board of Directors proposal for the annual financial statements and annual report of Equinor and the group for the 2025 as described in the annual financial statements and the proposed dividend for the fourth quarter of EUR 225 of USD 0.39 per share. payment of the dividend is expected to take place on the 27th of May 2026. We now proceed to the vote on Item 6 and ask that this to be done now as the matter will shortly be closed. SP-17 And we have now received confirmation from DNB that there's a majority in favor of the proposal, and the proposal has been adopted. And we go to a board authorization to distribute dividends based on the approved annual accounts for 2025. We ask that you give your vote now. The proposal is in the notice and is displayed on the screen.
[indiscernible] has now confirmed that there's a majority in favor of the proposal, and the proposal is therefore we go to Item 8 and the proposal that is in the notice and is shown on the screen. We ask that you give your vote now since the case will be closed shortly. If you want to support the proposal, you vote for the proposal if you want to vote against the proposal, and you were against if you want to follow the recommendation of the Board.
We have now gotten a confirmation from DNB that has -- that the majority is against and it has not been adopted. And we go to Item 9. It's in the notice and the [indiscernible] screen. We ask that you cast your vote now since we will shortly close the matter. If you want to support the shareholder's proposal, you vote for the proposal in favor. And you want to against it if you want to follow the Board's recommendation. It has not been confirmed by DNB that there's a favor -- that there's a majority against the proposal, and it has not been adopted.
We go to item 10 and the proposal is in it the notice and on the screen. We ask that you vote now since the item will shortly be closed. If you want to support the shareholder's proposal, you vote in favor of the proposal for the proposal. If you wish to follow the Board's recommendation, you vote against the proposal. We have now received confirmation from DNB that a majority has voted against the proposal and the matter has not. And it has not been adopted.
We go to Item 11 and the proposition is in the notice and on the screen, we ask that you cast your vote now since the matter will -- the item will shortly be closed. If you want to support the shareholder's proposal, both in favor of the proposal. If you want to follow the Board's recommendation vote against the proposal. And DNB confirm that the majority has voted against the proposal, and it has not been adopted. We go to Item 12 and the proposals in the notice as well as on the screen. We ask that you cast your vote now since the item will shortly be closed. If you want to support the shareholder's proposal, both in favor of the proposal, if you wish to follow the Board's recommendation to vote against the proposal and GMV confirms that a majority has voted against the proposal and the matter has not been adopted.
We go to Item 13 and the proposals in the notice and on the screen. We ask that [indiscernible] vote now since voting will shortly close. If you wish to support the shareholder's proposal, vote in favor of the proposal, vote against the proposal if you want to follow the Board's recommendation. It has now been retuned by DNB that a majority has voted against the proposal, and the proposal has not been. We go to item 14 and the press resolution is set out in the notice and on the screen. We ask that you vote now since voting will shortly close. If you want to support the shareholder's proposal, vote in favor of the vote against the proposal if you want to follow the Board's recommendation then we have now had confirmed by DNB that a majority has voted against the proves and it has not been adopted.
So I'll go to -- we go to item 15, which concerns the statement on corporate governance. It's 1 in the notice and on the screen, we ask that you vote now since the matter will shortly be closed for -- in accordance with Section 5, 6, 5 paragraph of the Public Limited Liabilities Company at the General Meeting, targeted the Board statement on corporate covenants, which is given in accordance with Section 29 of the accounting at the statement for 2025 is presented as a separate report, and it's been made available on Equinor's website prior to the general meeting. The AGM shall hold advisory vote on the corporate governing statement, and the Board proposes that the Annual General Meeting and dose the statement. We refer to the Chair's comments on the statement earlier in today's Annual General Meeting and DNB has now confirmed that a majority has voted in favor of the proposal and the general meeting endorses therefore, the Board's statement. We then go to item 16, which is about the Board's report on salaries and other remuneration for management.
We will now -- it's on the screen and in the notice. Pursuant to Section 16 of the PLLC at the Board of Directors shall prepare a report on remuneration to senior executives. The remuneration report is presented as a separate report and has been made available on Equinor's website prior to the AGM. The floor is given to the Chair of the Board, [indiscernible], who will provide an overview of the Board's remuneration report.
Thank you, Equinor's guidelines for remuneration to group management is rooted -- they're rooted in the company's values, the HR policy and the strategy of the company. The Board considers competitive terms and conditions essential to attract and retain the correct expertise for key positions. Equinor should not aim at being a market leader in terms of remuneration, but must also offer the senior management terms and conditions that are seen as competitive when they are measured against equivalent positions in comparable companies. Regarding the work on remuneration for the CEO and group executive management in 2025, I would particularly like to highlight the Board's work with continued focus on insuring and improving our market data for group remuneration to executive management of the group and correct use of this data in the remuneration decision on remuneration the process to [indiscernible]. Through the report on the remuneration of key management personnel. The board has provided a comprehensive view of the remuneration of the group executive management in 2025 and how the guidelines have been followed when determining these -- the remuneration report has been simplified even more this year in part because there were no changes in the guidelines in 2025. and that required further follow-up that will quite further follow-up or explanation the CEO's performance when setting the remuneration -- variable remuneration of the CEO, the Board and as assessment years performance for 2025 has taken into account that delivery in key areas has been above on or below the target set for Equinor, the year was characterized by geopolitical instability continued high transaction activity adjustments in organization and managing unforeseen events related to regulatory requirements and permits. There have been volatility in interest rates, inflation and energy markets, and that has had both a positive and negative effect on the company's performance in various areas. Equinor key role as a gas supplier to Europe has been maintained, and the company's operations were stable throughout the period. for the targets that form the basis for the Board's assessment after CEO's variable pay. The frequency of serious incidents was with a target and continuing the positive trend from 2024. The number of incidents was actually reduced by 20% compared to 2024. A and the SIF result is the best on record. However, the result is weakened by to buy a death at [indiscernible]. The second thing, the CO2 intensity for the upstream portfolio improved further, ending at 6.3 kilograms of CO2. That is well below this year's target. The third point, production cost per unit ended at USD 6.6 per barrel compared to the target of under USD 6.4. This result is largely driven by inflation and currency branch Item 4, renewable energy production ended at 3.7 terawatt hours which is positive compared with the 2024 result but below the target of 4.4 for 2025, both technical and natural factors influenced this result. Equinor's return on average capital employed was again at the very top this year and second best among a group of peer companies.
At very last number 6, whilst total shareholder return was slightly below ninth place out of 12 in the same peer group. With regard to the CEO's behavioral objectives and performance against them, the Board wants to highlight strong commitment to implementation of the group program. I am safety in autumn 2025 as well as the structured focus the CEO demonstrates when it comes to safety. The CEO has in 2025, also shown greater effective external focus, which has been important for securing trust and influence among shareholders, political decision-makers and other stakeholder groups under rapidly changing geopolitical conditions and operating environment that has affected the company in 2025 on also initiated an implemented organizational measures to restructure the organization. Additionally, to new people were appointed to the executive group, which helped do continue and robustness in the group's leadership position.
The Board is also satisfied with the result of this year's employee [indiscernible] as a whole. Certain aspects of satisfaction relating to strategies show a negative trend. And it will be important for the CEO to continue the work of explaining the strategy within the organization as well. In total, the board is very satisfied with the CEO's performance in 2025. When it comes to the remuneration for the CEO, the change and their salary for the CEO was 4.8 standard pay review. By comparison, the average pay review framework for employees in the Norwegian part of Equinor operation was 4.6%. And [indiscernible] salary amounted NOK 12.9 million. CEO had a variable performance-based salary in with a potential maximum of 25% of the basic salary. We also had a long-term incentive scheme with the allocation of shares worth up to 25% of the basic salary. The Board has based on aforementioned applicable guidelines, CEO's performance and the company's results diced to award a variable salary of NOK 3 million. The [indiscernible] has also been given 2,996 shares under the long-term incentive scheme in 2025, corresponding to a value of 25% of his base salary. And then a little bit about the group management terms and additions. When it comes to the other members of the group executive management, is the responsibility of the CEO to determine and decide on the remuneration in accordance with the same guidelines. So I would like to point out that the Board through remuneration and Leadership Development Committee always is consulted when the CEO makes decisions on -- let's see the salary adjustments for the executive management in the group and similar when it comes to the [indiscernible] performance appraisals, which form the basis for their variable pay and some concluding remarks. The Board's assessment of the group's executive remuneration in 2005 is that the company's framework and practices for remuneration are transparent and applied in accordance with good business practice.
As mentioned, the remuneration system for group in sectors are designed to ensure that the company attracts and retains employees capable of delivering at the highest level and the complex business environment in which Equinor operates. The Board sees it as fundamental that remuneration levels are competitive at all times and influenced by achieving performance. results. It's the Board's view that the remuneration of members of the Group Executive Board reflects the market and the company's results to the extent permitted by the guidelines while ensuring more duration. Thank you for your attention. Thank you, Jon Erik.
Pursuant to Section subsection of the Public Limited Company set with reference to Section 16B an advisory vote shall be held on the board support and salaries and other remuneration for senior executives. The Board proposes that the general meeting in an advisory vote endorse the Board's remuneration report. For the record, I would remind you that it is the corporate assembly that determines the remuneration of the Board. Therefore, this is not a matter for the general meeting. We will then proceed to the vote [indiscernible] on this matter. There have been no questions or comments, so we will now close the vote.
We have received confirmation from DNB that a majority has voted in favor of the proposal, and the general meeting has approved the Board's 2025 report on remuneration for senior executives. We have now gotten to item 17, which is a [indiscernible] of the company's external external auditor for 2025. The post we receive on the screen, you ask you to please vote now since the case to be closed shortly. The general meeting is asked to approve the auditor fee for the auditor [indiscernible]. We will now proceed to the vote if there are no comments on this matter. There have been no questions or comments, so we will now close the vote. We have now received confirmation from the the majority has voted in favor of the proposal, and the motion has been passed. We then want to consideration of item 18, election members of the corporate assembly. As the the Nomination Committee, I will now present the committee's recommendation. The Nomination Committee has emphasized several criteria in the composition of the corporate assembly, including diversity of expertise and background, a balanced gender representation and the need for renewal alongside the need for continuity. The Nomination Committee's proposal is set out in the notice of meeting and is displayed on the screen. For further information, please refer to the nomination committee in, which is available on Equinor's website together with other documents for the Annual General Meeting. An extract from the new candidates is displayed on the screen the proposed candidates are independent of the Board and the executive management of Equinor. It is proposed that the election of members and deputy members to the corporate assembly take effect from May 13, 2026, the Annual General Meeting in 2028.
We will now proceed to the vote unless any comments on the proposal. We have not received any questions or comments, so we will therefore now close the vote.
[Voting]
We have now received confirmation from the DNB that the majority has been achieved for the nomination committee proposal and the candidates [indiscernible] elected. We will now move on to item 9 the determination of remuneration for the corporate assembly. The proposal resolution is set out in the notice of meeting and is displayed on the screen. We ask that you cast your votes now as the matter will be closed shortly. On behalf of the Nomination Committee, I can inform you that the proposed increase in fees is in line with the general wage [indiscernible] any comments on the proposal. I've not received any questions or comments. So we will now close the vote.
We have now received confirmation from DNB that the majority has voted in favor of the proposal, and the motion has been passed. We then move on to consideration of Item 20, election of members to the Nomination Committee term of [indiscernible] of the Nomination Committee exposes year as Chairman of Nomination Committee. I'll now present the committee's recommendation. In accordance with the company's Articles of Association, the Nomination Committee shall consist of for members, who must be shareholders or representatives of shareholders and who must be independent of the Board and the executive management.
The Chair denomination Committee and 1 other member shall be elected from the shareholder-elected members of the corporate assembly. The Nomination Committee has emphasized several criteria in the compensation of the Nomination Committee, including shareholder representation, diversity of expertise and background, a balanced gender representation and the need for renewal alongside with the need for continuity. The Nomination Committee's proposal is displayed on the screen. The Nomination Committee recommends the reelection of Chair [indiscernible] and members [indiscernible]. It is proposed that this election take effect from May 13, 2026 until the Annual General Meeting in 2028. We see that we have received a comment. Go ahead. Ask you to introduce yourself, and I remind you that you've got 2 minutes.
Dear General Meeting, my name is [indiscernible] and I am pension [indiscernible] and I have attended previously talked about this subject. I was able to stay silent previous item, but I'm not able to [indiscernible] because they have a passion for quality, and I would like to have another woman in the Nomination Committee. I look at the last voting that there was a proposal to have 2 men as head and deputy and I think it would be a beautiful principle. If you had a man and a woman in those 2 positions. Thank you.
Thank you for your interest, and that we have taken a note of it. Then I see back there are no further questions or comments, so we will therefore close the vote.
[Voting]
We have now received confirmation from DNB that the majority has been achieved for the Nomination Committee's proposal and the candidates are deemed elected. We then move on to consideration of item 21, determination of remuneration for the members of the Nomination Committee proposed resolution instead of a notice or meeting is displayed on the screen the [indiscernible] vote now estimate be closed shortly. Also, the proposed changes to remuneration is in line with general wage trends in society. Are there any comments on the proposal. No questions or comments have been received. So we will now close the vote.
We have now received confirmation from DNB that the majority has been has voted in favor of the proposal in the motion has been passed. We then move on to consideration of Item 22. The proposed resolution is set at the notice and displayed on the screen. With regards to item 22, we have received a question in Lumi and the question is [ can the Chair of ] the Board explain why Equinor is now buying its own shares. This question has been answered in the report by the Board earlier today. And when it comes to [ Case 22 ] proposed recession is in the notice and on the screen, and we ask that we vote now since this item will soon be closed. The company has in 2004, offered a share savings scheme for employees within group, the aim is to strengthen positive corporate culture and loyalty by enabling employees to become part owner as a company. The long-term incentive program was established in 2007 with the aim of strengthening the long-term alignment of interest between the company's senior management and shareholders and sustainability for the company as well as to retain employees and position. We, therefore, go to the vote if there are no comments on this item. No questions or comments have no comments and we, therefore, close the vote. And the DNB confirmed that the majority has voted in favor of the proposal, and it has, therefore, been adopted. We go to Item 23, capital reduction through the cancellation of own shares and redemption of shares held by the Norwegian state as well as reduction in other equity. The proposal is now set out in the notice of meeting and displayed on the screen. We will go to the vote if there are no comments on this item. And either questions or comments have been received, and we therefore close the vote.
[Voting]
In adopting the [indiscernible] change the articles and so it is a 2/3 majority and DNB says that there is adequate majority and the case on the item has been adopted. We, therefore, [indiscernible]. So we go to Item 24 Board authorized [indiscernible] the market for subsequent cancellation. And it's -- the proposed resolution is in the notice and on the screen. We ask that you cast your votes now since the matter will shortly be closed. The Board proposes that general meeting authorized the Board to repurchase up to NOK 78 billion shares have become on shares on the market. see Section 9-4 of the Public Limited [indiscernible] Act.
Such authorization is common in many large listed companies. The repurchase of own shares [indiscernible] remaining shares will have a higher ownership stake in the company. For more information about a more detailed explanation about background for the proposal, we refer to the notice of meeting. We will now proceed to a vote if there are no comments on this matter. No questions have been received in all comments and we, therefore, close the vote. has confirmed that there's a majority for the resolution, and it has been adopted.
We then go to item 2, concerning the investment policy and the proposals in the notice and on the screen. We ask that you vote now since the case will be closed shortly. On the 5th of May 2001, Equinor Annual General Meeting adopted the allocation of instruction for Equinor ASA, which means that Equinor oil and gas produced from the state's direct financial interest in with its own oil and gas. The overall objective of this is to achieve the highest total value for Equinor's Petroleum and the States Petroleum and to ensure a fair distribution of the total value created has identified the need to adjust the pricing and distribution principles for the petroleum products covered by the instructions in light of market developments and changes in the ways in which petroleum is marketed and sold. The Board recommends that the Annual General Meeting approve that adjustments may be made to the instructions. Are there any comments on this matter. No questions or comments have been received, so we will close the vote.
[Voting]
We have had confirmed by DNB that there's a majority for the resolution, and it has been adopted. And we have then heard all the proposals and all the items and the minutes will be posted on the web pages of the company very soon. Thank you for the day and your interest and the shareholders who attended the general meeting. The meeting is adjourned. Thank you.
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Equinor — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Equinor ASA
Equinor — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Equinor ASA
AGM: Vorstand bestätigt "balanced energy"-Strategie, Q4‑Dividende genehmigt, aktive Aktionärsanträge zu Klima/Portfolio abgelehnt.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Der Aufsichtsrat bekräftigt Equinors Strategie einer ausgewogenen Energie‑Mischung: Ausbau der norwegischen Norwegischen Kontinentalschelf‑Aktivitäten, selektives internationales Öl‑&‑Gas‑Wachstum und Aufbau eines integrierten Strom-/Erneuerbaren‑Geschäfts; Kapitaldisziplin und Widerstandsfähigkeit in Szenarien bleiben Priorität.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Dividende & Kapital: AGM genehmigt Q4‑Dividende von USD 0,39 je Aktie; Board verweist auf rund USD 9 Mrd. Rückkäufe 2025 und erhielt Autorisierungen für weitere Rückkäufe/Quartalsdividenden.
- Geschäftsfokus: Priorität auf norwegischer Kontinentalschelf, selektive internationale Engagements, Ausbau eines integrierten Stromgeschäfts (Erneuerbare + flexible Erzeugung) verbunden mit Handelsaktivitäten zur Wertsteigerung.
- Betrieb & Sicherheit: Rekordproduktion ~137.000 boe/Tag, mehrere Feldinbetriebnahmen (Norwegen, Brasilien) und +24% erneuerbare Produktion; zugleich schwere Zwischenfälle und Stopporders (z.B. Empire Wind) zeigen regulatorische/rahmenbedingte Risiken.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- Disclosures: Keine neuen, detaillierten Szenariooffenlegungen angekündigt; Vorstand verweist auf bestehende Szenario‑Analysen und Stress‑Tests, hält die derzeitigen Berichte für ausreichend.
- Governance‑Entscheide: Jahresabschluss und Prüfungsbericht gebilligt; Autorisierung für Rückkäufe bis NOK 78 Mrd. sowie weitere kapitalpolitische Maßnahmen angenommen; Dividendenzahlung geplant für 27. Mai 2026.
- Prüfervermerk: Abschlussprüfung erwähnt Klimafolgen und Bewertungsunsicherheiten, Ergebnis: Abschlüsse geben ein den tatsächlichen Verhältnissen entsprechendes Bild.
❓ Fragen der Aktionäre
- Szenarien: Forderung nach expliziter Offenlegung von CapEx, Produktion und FCF (Free Cash Flow) in negativen Öl/Gas‑Nachfrage‑Szenarien; Board antwortet, dass solche Analysen intern stattfinden und bereits in Form von Szenario‑/Stresstests berichtet würden.
- Portfolio & Struktur: Zahlreiche Vorschläge (Spin‑off Erneuerbare, Verkauf internationaler Fossilassets) wurden vorgebracht; Vorstand empfiehlt Gegenstimme mit Hinweis, dass Strategie vom Board bestimmt wird und laufend geprüft wird.
- Geopolitik & Klima: Forderungen nach gesonderten Risikoberichten (z.B. Barentssee, Ukraine‑Investitionen) sowie strengeren Netto‑Null‑Zielen; Vorstand erkennt Debatte an, lehnte jedoch die Mehrzahl der Anträge ab.
📌 Bottom Line
- Fazit: Für Aktionäre bedeutet das AGM Kontinuität: Board und Management behalten strategische Kontrolle, Kapitalrückflüsse (Dividende + Rückkäufe) sind bestätigt, aktivistische Anträge wurden mehrheitlich abgelehnt. Wer mehr Transparenz zu tieferen Nachfrage‑Szenarien oder eine deutlichere Priorisierung von Erneuerbaren erwartet, bleibt vorerst enttäuscht; politische und regulatorische Risiken sowie Rahmenbedingungen bleiben zentrale Performance‑Treiber.
Equinor — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Hello, and welcome to Equinor Analyst Call Q1 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Bård Pedersen, Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, operator, and good morning to all. Welcome to the presentation of Equinor's first quarter results. As usual, I'm here with our CFO, who will take us through the results and then take your questions. We plan to complete the session within one hour. So with that, Torgrim, I hand it to you.
Well, thank you very much, Bård, and good morning and good afternoon to all of you. So thank you for joining us today.
This quarter, war and conflict, first and foremost, are impacting people in a severe way. Energy markets are also fundamentally shifting, and we have a particular role in providing reliable energy. Against this backdrop, I'm glad to report excellent operational performance with high regularity, new fields on stream. And in this quarter, we delivered our highest production ever. This is important for energy security and for our investors. The war in the Middle East is creating high volatility and imbalances in the market. It is not clear when this conflict will be resolved or how long it will take to restore infrastructure in the region or what the lasting impact to the markets will look like.
We will focus on what we can control and influence, maintaining cost control and capital discipline and being a reliable supplier of energy, delivering all of this in a very safe manner. A good example of this is the Gullfaks field right now. There, oil is flowing into shuttle tankers bound for European customers just as it has done for steadily 40 years. When we started the Gullfaks field in 1986, we expected to produce 1.3 billion barrels. We have now passed 2.5 billion, and we are still counting. The world needs energy it can trust, and the Norwegian Continental Shelf is a stable oil and gas province that continues to deliver above and beyond expectations. So over to the results.
This quarter, we delivered record high production, 9% up from the same quarter last year. High regularity and new fields on the NCS, combined with record high production in the U.S. contributes to this growth. With this, we capture value from higher prices and our trading business captures value uplift from increased volatility. This quarter, the adjusted operating income was $9.8 billion, and our net income was $3.1 billion. Year-to-date, our cash flow from operations after tax is $6 billion. An increase in collaterals supports strong trading results during volatility, but reduces our cash flow in the quarter. I will revert to this later.
Our adjusted earnings per share was $1.48, positively impacted by strong results on financial items. On the NCS, we made 7 commercial discoveries. And in January, we were also awarded 35 new licenses. With this new acreage and strong exploration results, we will continue to be a reliable energy supplier. In Brazil, we started drilling at the Raya gas field, which we expect to be on stream in 2028. Portfolio optimization continues to deliver value. And this quarter, we received the first quarter dividend of $150 million from Adura.
Then to capital distribution. For the quarter, the Board approved a cash dividend of $0.39 per share and a second tranche of the share buyback of up to $375 million. This is in line with what we indicated at our 4Q presentations. At that time, we expected to lean on the balance sheet in 2026 to maintain stable investments and competitive capital distribution. Higher prices will strengthen our cash flow, but there is still significant uncertainty. Competitive capital distribution remains a key priority for us. As always, safety is our top priority, and our safety performance has steadily improved over time. This quarter, we have, however, seen an increase in the number of incidents, and we must continue our work to improve safety and ensure everyone working with Equinor returns home safely every day.
In the quarter, we produced more than 2.3 million barrels per day. This is an all-time high, up 9% compared to same quarter last year. We are on track to deliver on our guidance of a 3% production growth for the year. Production on the NCS was up 10%, mainly driven by high regularity across the portfolio and ramp-up of Johan Castberg, Halten East and Verdande . In the U.S., we had record high production driven by Seseronga offshore and our U.S. gas position onshore.
Outside of the U.S., our international production also increased, driven by Adura and Bacalhau, but it was partly offset by our reduced ownership in Peregrino. Power production was stable at 1.4 terawatt hours. Then to the financials. E&P Norway's adjusted operating income totaled $7.7 billion pretax and $1.7 billion post tax. This reflects the high production and strong price realization. Crude qualities that can be used for jet fuel and diesel have seen stronger differentials, and we have benefited from this at Gullfaks and Johan Sverdrup. Normally, crude from Johan Sverdrup trades at a slight discount to Brent, but we are now seeing a premium of $5. And in March, we sold cargoes at a $13 premium from Johan Sverdrup.
Our E&P International results reflect increased production and some overlift in the quarter and are impacted also by high depreciation in Ada. Results for the U.S. are driven by record high production and strong realized gas prices, particularly during the cold spell at the start of the quarter. MMP delivered close to double our quarterly guidance at $787 million before tax, mostly due to strong products and U.S. gas trading. The M&P results demonstrate how we continue to capture value from a volatile market.
This is the first quarter where we report Power as a separate segment or as a segment, combining renewables, flexible power and power trading. The result came in close to 0 with strong contribution from the power trading business. Adjusted operational cost and SG&A was up 9% compared to the same quarter last year. Underlying OpEx and SG&A, including portfolio changes, was down 6%. And adjusted for currency, it was down more than 10%, which was the ambition we set in February, and we deliver cost reductions even if we have more fields on stream and we are growing production.
This quarter, cash flow from operations after tax was $6 billion. In addition, I want to highlight 2 points. First, we have a cash inflow of around $800 million from a positive price review settlement. This is cash in, but it is not included in the cash flow from operation for the quarter. Second, we have put in cash collaterals of almost $900 million. This is to be expected during times of volatility, and it supports strong trading results. But however, it do reduces the cash flow from operations in the quarter. Also, there is a net increase in working capital of $800 million in the first quarter. We paid 2 tax installments on the NCS this quarter totaling $4.2 billion. Next quarter, we will pay 3 installments of NOK 20 billion each.
In June, we will determine tax payments for the second half of this year and the first half of 2027. Organic CapEx for the quarter was $3 billion, in line with our CapEx guidance for the year, and we have a strong cash position of $20 billion. Our net debt ratio decreased to 15%. Higher prices will impact our outlook for cash flow and net debt towards the end of the year. In February, we expected a cash flow from operations of $16 billion after tax in 2026. This was based on a scenario with $65 Brent and a $9 per MBtu for European gas. We see large movements in forward prices on a daily basis, and there is significant uncertainty, making it hard to predict our cash flow for the year. However, if we assume that Brent averages $85 per barrel this year and European gas -- European gas prices of $13 per MBtu, we expect the cash flow from operations to be around $8 billion higher for 2026.
At the same time, our future tax liabilities will increase with around $4 billion due to the tax lag in Norway. This is when we measure it compared to what we expected in February. With higher prices, we no longer expect to lean on the balance sheet this year. With the scenario of $85 oil, we expect our net debt ratio to remain fairly stable through the second quarter, and we will recognize the state's share of buybacks for 2025 as net debt. Then we expect it to reduce to somewhat below 15% during the second half of the year. So our guidance presented in February remains stable. There are no changes to that. For 2026, we expect $13 billion in organic CapEx and around 3% growth in oil and gas production. So by that, I would like to say thank you very much for your attention. And I give the word back to you, Bard, for the Q&A...
Thank you, Torgrim, and we will then start the Q&A. [Operator instructions] We have a good list already, and we'll start with Alejandro Vigil from Santander.
2. Question Answer
Questions for the year. You have reiterated the EUR 1.5 billion share buyback. Alex Sorry, can you hear me? [Technical Difficulty] Yes. Yes, no problem. It's in terms of the share buybacks for the year, the guidance of SEK 1.5 billion. This is already fixed or depending on the commodity environment, if in the second half of the year, we have these higher energy prices, you will be in a position to update to increase these buybacks. That would be the first one. And the second one is about your views about the European natural gas market. We have seen relatively, I would say, relaxed energy market in Europe with forwards also relatively low versus the expectations of the situation in the Middle East. If you can share with us your view about the situation and the outlook for the second half of the year.
Anders Opedal
Thank you very much, Alejandro. So first on capital distribution. So we communicated at the fourth quarter at $0.39 per share and a share buyback of $1.5 billion for the year. There's no change to that guiding. When we said that sort of we were planning to lean on the balance sheet for this year, as I have said, to remain competitive. So clearly, there's still a lot of uncertainty around this. So it is way too early to have a discussion on that. But what I can say is that we expect not to lean on the balance sheet for the rest of the year with the current price outlook.
Normally, we do announce the dividend and share buyback at the fourth quarter presentation and that should be the starting point for any discussions around this. But from the AGM, we have the mandate to change during the year, but that is not the normal approach as such. With all this uncertainty around us, important for me to say that any share buyback beyond sort of the base will have to be based on money that we have already earned in a way. And so this is clearly too early to have a discussion on that topic. What is important for me to say is that being competitive in our capital distribution will have priority in the capital allocation going forward.
Yes. So that was the first question. Let me see the second one was on the natural gas market. Yes, it's a very, very, very important question. So at the outset, when we started this year, clearly, we expected a softer gas market for '26 and '27 sort of based on sort of more LNG coming to the market with the closing of the straight, 20% of that global LNG is shut in. So the situation is very different. I think there is a little bit of -- it has been -- the main attention has been on the oil market, but I think equally important is actually the natural gas market because when the straight opens, we do believe that it will take maybe half a year for oil to get back to normal.
For gas, it will take much longer. Qatar Energy has said that 70% of the export capacity from the Gulf is damaged and will take 3 to 5 years to repair as such. So we -- currently, we don't see that glut of LNG through this decade as sort of we were expecting just half a year ago. So this is a little bit of a topic that clearly, we are very occupied with. And I do think the world will see this more clearly in a bit. When it comes to the European situation in itself, I mean, the storage levels are at 30% currently. That is 6% below season normal. And in the sort of the curves or also the market doesn't give incentives to inject for the time being.
So we believe that gas storages will likely not reach the 80% target that is set, meaning that going forward, the European gas market will be vulnerable for weather events, for operational issues. And when you, in addition, add that sort of there is 32 bcm of Russian gas that will leave the market over these 2 years. It's clear there is quite a lot of additional LNG that needs to come to Europe to satisfy the necessary demand. So clearly, an area to watch. We take the role as a reliable energy supplier extremely important. And for us, it's important to produce at maximum and deliver natural gas to Europe in a situation like this.
Thank you, Al, -- the next one is Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.
Hope you can hear me. Just had one question, and it's about the -- your Ørsted holding. You're obviously now kind of in the black or close to the black on the investment, but you've moved from not wanting a Board seat to then suggesting you want a Board seat and then not nominating a Board member. So I just want to understand -- do you still see this as a long-term strategic holding as you previously said? Or has something changed here? And then related to that, are you in discussions around a potential JV with them? And should we expect an update with the CMD?
Thanks, Biraj. So there is no change in the way that we view sort of our ownership position in Orsted. We see ourselves as a long-term industrial owner. And we do believe, as we said earlier, that this industry is now coming out of its first crisis, and there is consolidation needed. And we do believe that collaboration between the 2 companies has the potential to create shareholder value, both for Orsted's shareholders and Equinor's shareholders. So this remains firm. Bergen is a great company. What I would like to say is that when it comes to Board position, clearly, the timing for that needs to be right. We informed Ørsted that we would not nominate a Board member this year. But our approach to this ownership is the same, a long-term industrial owner.
Thank you, Biraj. Next one is Alastair Syme from Citi.
Can you talk a little bit about activity levels in the U.S. onshore? I appreciate this is a non-operated position, but how many rigs running in the Eagle Ford and Marcellus and any thoughts on ambitions to increase? And then as a follow-up, I think later on this year, Germany is looking to move forward with its tenders on 9 gigawatts of gas-fired power. Is this a tender that might fit with Equinor's strategy in this area?
Okay. Thanks, Alistair. So our onshore position in the U.S. is now fully concentrated in the Marcellus play, and we are not operating any longer. So we are together with expand in Marcellus. So that produces that produces very well. The production increased by 17,000 barrels per day, and we are now at 320 barrels per day. So that is good and expand is a good operator. This is, as you know, the area in the U.S. with the lowest breakeven around $1 for that production, well situated in sort of future demand to data centers and gas to power and all of that. So it remains a very strategic asset for us. When it comes to offshore wind and auctions in Europe, I would say that Europe in general is an area where clearly there is quite a bit of support for this, driven by energy security now much more than decarbonization.
I just want to repeat what we said at the fourth quarter that our priority within the renewable space is to finalize and conclude the projects that we have under development in the U.S., in U.K. and Poland. And the bar for further capital commitments into the offshore wind space is very high, and that also goes for the Ørsted position.
Sorry to interrupt, the second question was actually on the gas-fired power in Europe -- sorry, in Germany rather.
Maybe I misheard you, Alastair. So yes, so I mean, it's -- we have nothing particular to mention in that regard. But clearly, we do see that Europe and Germany, in particular, needs to sort of invest into the sort of the electricity system and grid. So we follow that situation clearly.
Okay. Next one on my list is Teodor S Nilsen from Sparebank Markets.
Two questions for me. First, on the price differentials, we know that, that was a pretty good realized oil price in Q1. In Q2, we have, of course, seen even higher daily prices. Just wonder if you can share what you've seen on the realized prices for specific cargoes so far in Q2? And second question, that is on the potential of postponing maintenance that coming summer season, upcoming maintenance season given the high energy prices we currently see.
Okay. Thanks, Teodor. So strong price realizations in the quarter. So first of all, we do not hedge our production neither on the gas side or nor on the oil side. So we want to be exposed to the volatility as such. And that is what we benefit from in this price environment. When it comes to the oil on the NCS, we achieved close to a $3 premium to Brent in the first quarter. Normally, we trade at a discount to Brent in general. So this is driven by a few things. One is that the demand for certain qualities have really increased because many of them replace well sort of the Middle Eastern quality.
And as an example, Johan Sverdrup now trade at a $5 premium to Brent. Normally, it is a discount, and we actually sold cargoes at $13 premium to that. Johan Castberg, the new one is also another one. So where sort of we had premiums above $20 actually to the difference. And Gulf is a third one. So clearly, we are able to take out quite a bit from the differentials. Then there has been quite a bit of difference between sort of the physical delivery, the dated versus the front month, and that has moved up and down, and it was -- the differential was very high in March. And we delivered or we sold or lifted a lot of volumes in March as such. So it's an example that sort of through trading and through marketing, we are able to take out value through sort of dislocations in the market.
Going into April and all of that, it's too early to be specific. But clearly, the demand for sort of our oil is still very high. What we have seen is sort of that the curve has calmed up somewhat. So the differentials between the physical delivery and front month is less than it was in March as well. So we'll have to wait and see Teodor, on where this end. We will be specific on price realizations in the consensus invite to the quarter. Second quarter on.
Yes. Thanks, Ward. Yes. The answer to that is no, Teodor. Maintenance programs on our installations are major industrial projects. They take a massive amount of planning, involvement of suppliers. And clearly, we do not want to disturb any of that. The most important is to do that effectively and safely.
We go to the next question, and that is Henri Patrick from UBS.
Two questions from my side. The first one, just on the production, you had very strong performance in the first quarter, but you've kept the guidance unchanged at plus 3% for the year. Just wondering to what extent there is upside to the rest of the year because it's was a slightly higher production on average in '25 versus Q1 '25, but the guidance for '26 implied drop over the rest of the year. So just trying to understand what's driving that. And secondly, you mentioned the cost reduction. So hoping you could elaborate on what's working for you in terms of driving cost reduction, exactly which part of the business.
Thanks, Henry. So first, on the production guidance, so 2% production growth we expect for the year. In the first quarter, clearly, we are very proud of what the organization has done on the quality of the operations, very high production efficiency and regularity and the new fields coming in are performing well and ramping up as they should. So in the first quarter, we have produced more than we had in our plans. But it is way too early to make any changes to the guidance. We are moving into the second and third quarter where we will have turnarounds. And in the second quarter, it's a 75,000 barrels per day program and in the third quarter, 40,000 barrels per day. And we all know that, that contains some uncertainty as well. So -- but I can leave with you that the production has gone very well in the first quarter.
On costs, yes, so there is a 9% sort of growth in reported cost. That is driven by record production and more fields in production. So that is natural. However, we have -- the transportation costs have increased, driven by shipping rates and also energy costs and also currency, the strengthening of the Norwegian kroner has a certain impact on that. And if you sort of take away those type of elements that is not related to underlying performance, -- and also we have royalties in there. Underlying, there is a cost reduction of 6%. So -- and that is without currency changes actually. So meaning that we are putting more fields in production. We are growing our production while we are reducing the cost. And this is just a result of a systematic work over many years. Associated comment is that the unit production cost, we expect that to be reduced from $6.6 per barrel to $6 during the year, just improving the quality and underlying profit of our earnings.
Thank you, Henri. Next one in the line is Matt Lofting from JPMorgan.
Torgrim, given your earlier comments on gas and hopefully now a better balance sheet outturn for 2026, you're very clear earlier around needing to maintain the baseline on maintenance, et cetera, which makes full sense. But I just wondered whether you see the merit yet in higher CapEx to fund an acceleration in Norwegian or non-Middle East as it were located production? Or is it simply too early to be able to take that view and warrant any capital allocation revisions at this point? And then secondly, I just wanted to ask you about production. I mean Q1 looked very strong in terms of the operational performance. I think you termed it earlier as putting the company on track for 3% full year growth rather than ahead. Do you see any upside emerging to the 3% growth for this year?
Thanks. So -- in February, we guided on a significant improvement in the free cash flow, driven by both lower costs and a high-graded investment program as such. And there is no changes to that. We have a program that is very consistent with our production growth ambitions and so on. So there are no news into that. What is very important for us when we consider the investment program is to see to that it is high graded, that it has the maximum profitability that we can get out of the program, and that will remain the case even if sort of prices goes up. I mean we are living in seldom times with a lot of uncertainty, and we need to be prepared for that things can be very different again. So we will remain disciplined -- on production, it was a strong first quarter production, better than assumed in sort of the 3% guiding, but it's too early to do anything with it due to sort of uncertainty going forward and particularly related to the turnaround programs.
Thanks, Matt. Next question is John Olaisen from AB.
One of your competitors are talking a lot about international exploration going forward. You seem to be standing out as one of the companies that have reduced international exploration. And if I'm right, you only drilling -- you're only planning for 2 exploration wells in '26 and 2 ILX wells in Angola. I just wonder if you could talk a little bit about your ambitions when it comes to international exploration and maybe a little bit about details about the drilling plans for '26, please.
Thanks, John. Yes. I think I'll start with a little bit of highlights on how we think about the international business. And over the last few years, we have streamlined that significantly into fewer countries and focusing on sort of where we see that we can create the most value. And then clearly, we have done some divestments and acquisitions to support that. So currently, we are looking at at higher international production growth, reaching 950,000 barrels per day in 2030 and a growing cash flow, lower unit production costs and lower CO2 emissions.
So over the years, we have actually been able to make this into something better than a few years back. Exploration is an integrated part of how we think about developing the international business. The exploration will be, first and foremost, focused on areas where we currently are, Brazil, Angola, U.S., to mention a few. So this year, it is a rather limited program focusing on Angola and ILX opportunities, great opportunities though. Going forward, clearly, focus will be more on Brazil, where you might be aware that we hold the neighboring lease to beat this Bacalhau asset in Brazil and also a couple of interesting prospects close to the Raia development further north as interesting. So those are concrete opportunities that we are developing. And then there are more opportunities as well. So exploration will have priority. doing significant step-outs on frontier exploration beyond the countries where we are, we will be careful with.
My second question is regarding Dogger Bank. I noticed that Dogger Bank B has started production. I just wonder when do you expect Dogger Bank C to start production? And also what is the status of potential Dogger Bank BE, et cetera? That's the final question.
Thanks, John. Yes. So there has been delays on Dogger Bank A, as you would know. So that is now more and more getting back to where it should be. Dogger Bank B installation is on track and that is moving forward as planned. When it comes to Dogger Bank C, the transition pieces, those things are ongoing and we actually -- well, let me see, those were actually completed. Those are actually done half a year ago. And we do expect Dogger Bank C to be completed in around 2 years' time as such.
Thank you, John. Next one on my list is Nash from Barclays.
Two questions from me, please. First, congratulations on the record high production number, but could I ask about safety, please? I wonder if you could provide some color why the safety data in Slide 3 of the presentation deteriorated during Q1. It's not really a pushback from me, but I just want to hear Equinor's plan to produce at a very high level in a safe and sustainable manner, please? And then the second question is on your New Power segment. This is the first quarter that you officially have had this new power segment. I wonder what have surprised you both positively and negatively?
Thank you, Nash. So safety is our first priority. And if you look at sort of the development over the last years, it has been a very, very positive development for this. What we see recently is sort of that things are flattening out statistically, and then we have seen some more incidents as such. So -- but clearly, we are seen as a very safe operator. And I would say that sort of -- I see no risk sort of this having an impact on production efficiency. An associated point is sort of the technical integrity of an aging fleet of platforms is something that we follow very, very closely. And that technical integrity is actually higher than sort of -- than it has been for many, many, many years.
So the underlying quality in the operations is very high, but this is something that we follow very, very closely. The New Power segment reported close to 0 this quarter. So what we do see is a positive development on underlying costs and business development activities and all of that. And then clearly a strong contribution from the power trading in the quarter. So this is going in the right direction, and we are all looking forward to positive results in the future.
Thank you, Nadh. Then it's Redburn, Fergus Neve.
Fergus, please take your question. Just one question from me today, please. I saw some press reports recently about awards being granted for the FEED studies at Bed Nord, which is obviously an exciting project. I was just hoping you might be able to give us some color on where you are kind of on the project, what current time lines you're working to and when we might kind of expect an FID if the FEED projects go to plan.
Thank you very much. So Bedonord is a very important development. So this is a project that we have worked for quite a while, and it is now getting closer to a concept select, and that is what we plan for this year. This is -- this is a large development. We own 60% in the asset and sort of altogether, investment levels of $9 billion to $10 billion on a 100% basis and production plateau a little bit below 200,000 barrels per day, very importantly, with a low tax rate as such. So this will have a significant contribution to cash flow from operations in the 2030s. Technology-wise, this is ready. It is 500 kilometers offshore. It is dark and it is cold. But I would argue that as a company, we do have certain experience in those waters.
Next is Paul Redman from BNP Paribas.
First question is just on cash flow this quarter. You had 2 big cash impacts. You had the collaterals and you had the price review. Can you just talk to us about how you expect the collaterals to play out through the year, whether you expect a reversal? And on the price review, do we expect anything else later on the year? Secondly, on Ørsted, you talked about collaboration with the 2 companies. Is that collaboration with a 10% equity stake? Or do you need a greater equity stake? And then sorry, one last one was a clarification. You just -- you said $8 billion of CFFO upside I think, at higher prices of $85 a barrel, I think it's $13 TTF. Can you just walk me through because I don't know whether my math is wrong. I'm not sure that works with your sensitivities but having to be proved wrong.
Okay. No, thanks. All right. So there were at least three questions in here. So let me take the cash flow first and the collaterals. So collaterals is a function of volatility in the market, and it's a function of that we really would like to take advantage of that volatility and trade it, and we don't hedge and so on. So as volatility increase, we need to put collaterals behind the trades that we make. So in this quarter, collaterals increased by $900 million which is just natural business. So when volatility comes down again, collateral will be reduced and that will sort of improve cash flow again. So this is normal business.
I just want to give you a data point, and that is during the energy crisis with the war on Ukraine, at the maximum, we had collaterals of $10 billion in our balance sheet, enabling us to trade in an environment where very few could trade, and we made huge returns on that, and we didn't lose a single dollar in sort of that. So this is what we do, and this is for us to be able to benefit from volatility, both on the gas and the oil side.
Then on Orsted, the collaboration, I don't want I don't want to be too specific on this. But clearly, the 10% ownership share that we have, we are satisfied with that, and there's a high bar to commit more capital into offshore wind, and that also goes with the position in Orsted. When that is said, we do believe that this industry will need consolidation to be to improve profitability and risk management as such.
The last question was on the price sensitivity. So what I gave you was sort of specifics for which is the $8 billion in improved cash flow from operations if you assume $85 oil and $3 gas. However, there is a tax lag related to -- we pay taxes with a 6-month delay in Norway. So there is $4 billion that sort of build sort of tax liability for the future beyond 2026. We have in our material price sensitivities which we issue. And we say that with a $10 change in the oil price, that will change cash flow from operations with $1.2 and a $2 on gas will lead to a $0.8 billion improvement in the cash flow from operations. those are sort of adjusted for the tax lag. And I think that is maybe the difference in your calculations because those numbers are after tax and adjusted for any tax lag impact. I know this is complicated, but it is important to understand and Investor Relations will be more than ready to discuss this further with you later on.
Thank you, Paul. I can confirm the latter point. Then next one on my list is Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen.
Just one for me. As you think about the cash windfall you're likely to receive this year and kind of declining production growth as you look out to the 2030s, is there any appetite to execute M&A in order to increase the potential production growth opportunities you have into next decade?
Thanks, Jason. Yes. So the investment program that we have put in place and that we are guiding on enables us to actually build this business step by step beyond this decade. We are aiming for a production on the Norwegian Continental Shelf in 2035 on the same level as in 2020. Internationally, we are growing our production towards 950,000 barrels per day in 2030. And our power business is also growing based on sort of the guided investments that we have. So I mean, we are not dependent on M&A to deliver high-quality growth through the next decade.
When that is said, M&A is an active tool that we use to high-grade our portfolio. And if I can give you a couple of examples, we have exited Nigeria and Azerbaijan, 2 countries clearly declining, and we received a good price for that. We have made 2 acquisitions into Marcellus in the U.S., creating longevity and a robust portfolio for the long term in the U.S. As heard, we have created Adura, the company in the U.K. where we have sort of combined with Shell, our upstream assets, significantly improving our cash flow and actually growth outlook as well. My point being that going forward, you should expect us to continue to use M&A actively to continue to high-grade the portfolio, create value and also provide longevity into the business.
Thank you, Jason, for your question. This time, we actually managed to get to all questions within the hour. So I'm sure that's welcome on a busy day. Thank you all for your questions, for calling in. And as always, the IR team remains available if there are any topics that you would like to follow up during the day or later in the week. So have a good day, everybody, and thank you for calling.
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Equinor — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Equinor — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Equinor meldet Rekordproduktion, starke Ergebniszahlen und bestätigt Guidance bei weiter hohem Markt‑ und Steuer‑Risiko.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Produktion: 2,3 Mio. bpd (Barrels per day), +9% YoY – Allzeit‑hoch.
- Operatives Ergebnis: Adjusted operating income $9,8 Mrd.; Nettoeinkommen $3,1 Mrd.; bereinigtes EPS $1,48.
- CFFO (YTD): $6,0 Mrd. nach Steuern; Kasse $20 Mrd.; Nettoverschuldungsquote 15%.
- CapEx: Organisch $3 Mrd. im Quartal; Jahres‑Guidance 2026: $13 Mrd. organisch.
- Handel/Volatilität: Collaterals ~ $900 Mio. (erhöht kurzfristig Cashbedarf); Price‑review Zufluss ~ $800 Mio. (nicht in CFFO Q1).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Prioritäten: Kostenkontrolle, Kapital‑Disziplin und Zuverlässigkeit als Energieversorger.
- Kapitalallokation: Quartalsdividende $0,39/Share; laufender Buyback‑Tranche bis $375 Mio.; Ziel: wettbewerbsfähige Ausschüttungen, Erhöhung nur aus tatsächlich erzieltem Free‑Cash.
- Portfoliofokus: Priorität auf NCS (Norwegian Continental Shelf), selektive internationale Exploration (v.a. Brasilien, Angola) und selektive M&A zur „High‑grading“ des Portfolios.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Produktion 2026: Guidance unverändert ≈ +3% für Öl & Gas; Q1‑Outperformance wird wegen Turnarounds (Q2: ~75k bpd, Q3: ~40k bpd) nicht in Guidance eingepreist.
- Cash‑Szenario: Feb‑Basisszenario: CFFO $16 Mrd. (65 $/bbl, $9/MBtu). Szenario 85 $/bbl und $13/MBtu → ~+$8 Mrd. CFFO, aber +$4 Mrd. künftige Steuerlast (Steuer‑Lag Norwegen).
- Risiken: Krieg im Nahen Osten, beschädigte LNG‑Exports (Qatar), volatile Preise → Markt‑ und Steuerunsicherheit; Collaterals können Cash temporär belasten.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Buybacks: Grundrahmen $1,5 Mrd. bleibt; zusätzliche Rückkäufe nur wenn realisierte Überschüsse vorhanden sind und Timing passt.
- Ørsted‑Haltung: Equinor sieht Beteiligung als langfristig industriell; keine Nominierung für Board dieses Jahr, Kooperation möglich, aber hoher Kapital‑Bar.
- Gasmarkt: Management warnt vor verwundbaren europäischen Speichern (≈30% vs. saisonal normal) und langfristiger Reduktion von Exportkapazität aus Golfregion → höhere Preis‑Volatilität möglich.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Operativ sehr stark (Rekordproduktion, robuste Ergebnisse) und finanzielle Basis solide; Guidance bleibt konservativ. Kurzfristiger Upside für Aktionäre bei anhaltend hohen Preisen, jedoch dämpfen Steuer‑Lag, Marktschwankungen und Collateral‑Effekte die Liquidität und erhöhen Unsicherheit.
Equinor — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning to all, both here in the room in Oslo and to all our participants online. Welcome to the presentation of Equinor's Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results for 2025. My name is B�rd Glad Pedersen. I'm Head of Investor Relations in Equinor. To those of you who are in the room, I want to inform you that there are no emergency drills planned for today. So if there is an alarm, we will evacuate and follow instructions. Today, we will have a presentation first from our CEO, Anders Opedal, followed by a presentation from our CFO, Torgrim Reitan, before we start the Q&A. [Operator Instructions]
So with that, I hand it to Anders for your presentation.
And thank you all for joining here in the room, and thank you for participating on digital. So for Equinor, 2025 was a year of strong deliveries, but it was also a year of increased geopolitical tension and market uncertainty. Our job is to ensure we allocate our resources in a way that maintain a competitive business, creating value at all times. Today, Torgrim and I will show how we take the necessary measures to further strengthen our competitiveness, cash flow and robustness. This makes sure that we can navigate through and leverage market volatility and the current macro environment.
So we have 3 key messages for you today. First, we are well positioned for maximizing long-term shareholder value. Today, we will share how clear strategic priorities guide capital allocation for 2026 and '27, and we will revert at our Capital Market Day in June to present our strategy towards 2030. Second, we take firm actions to strengthen free cash flow. We reduced our CapEx outlook with $4 billion and maintain strong cost discipline. This makes us more robust towards lower prices and ensure that we can maintain a solid balance sheet through the cycles. And third, we continue to develop an attractive portfolio, delivering oil and gas production growth. With this, we are prepared for volatility ahead. The energy transition is shifting gears in many markets with governments and companies changing priorities. Current oil prices are supported by geopolitical risk, but we are prepared for strong supply combined with moderate demand growth, putting pressure on the oil price in the near-term.
For gas, the European market has seen cold weather and high draw on storage in late December and in January. Storage levels are now around 40%, significantly below average for the last 5 years and also lower than last year. We expect continued volatility ahead and more LNG coming into the market. In the U.S., low temperatures have driven up local demand and reduced exports of LNG. But before I progress any further, I will always start with safety. Despite fewer people being hurt and our safety numbers moving in the right direction, we still have serious incidents and need to improve. In September, our colleague was fatally injured during a lifting operation at Mongstad. A stark reminder that we cannot rest until everyone returns safely home from work every day. Our safety trend reflects years of good work from the people in our organization and our suppliers. Safety remains our first priority.
Throughout 2025, we have delivered strong performance despite geopolitical uncertainty, high inflation in the supply chain and lower commodity prices. This results in all-time high record production, thanks to good operational performance and new fields on stream. We have matured a competitive project portfolio across the Norwegian continental shelf and internationally. With Johan Castberg on stream, we opened a new region in the Barents Sea. In Brazil, we started production from Bacalhau, the first pre-salt operator ship awarded to an international company. We continue high-grading our portfolio, and we maintained cost and capital discipline. All this has enabled us to deliver industry-leading return on average capital employed of 14.5% and $18 billion in cash flow from operations after tax. We have delivered $9 billion in capital distribution to our shareholders, as we said at the start of the year.
Last year, we received 2 stop-work orders for Empire Wind. In our view, both are unlawful. The first one was lifted by the UN administration in May. The second stop-work order came just before Christmas. This cited national security reasons, already a central part of an extensive approval process where we have complied with all requirements. In January, we were granted a preliminary injunction allowing us to resume construction. There will be a continued legal process, and we remain in dialogue with U.S. authorities to resolve any issues. Despite the significant challenges caused by the stop-work orders, the project execution is according to plan. The project is now over 60% complete. We have successfully installed all monopiles, the offshore substation and almost 300 kilometers of subsea cables.
The total CapEx for Empire Wind is now expected to be around $7.5 billion. Around $3 billion is remaining, and we, like other companies, remain exposed to uncertainty when it comes to possible future tariffs. The project qualifies for tax credits as decided by the U.S. Congress. The cash effect of these is expected to be around $2.5 billion. So far, we have drawn $2.7 billion from project financing. We expect to draw the remaining $400 million this year.
For 2027 and '28 combined, we expect around $600 million in cash flow from operations. Combined with the ITC, this covers the remaining CapEx in the period. We have continued high-grading our portfolio. We announced the latest move earlier this week, divesting onshore assets in Argentina for a total consideration of $1.1 billion, unlocking capital for high value creation opportunities. The establishment of Adura was a major milestone last year. Our joint venture with Shell has created a leading operator on the U.K. continental shelf, fully self-funded, covering all Rosebank CapEx and well positioned for growth. The JV company expects to distribute more than 50% of cash flow from operation to its shareholders, starting from the first half of 2026. Based on Adura's plans, we expect total dividends of more than $1 billion for 2026 and '27 combined with growth from '26 to '27. This moves our U.K. portfolio from being cash negative due to CapEx to cash positive from dividends.
These 2 transactions build on previous high-grading of the portfolio, divesting mature assets and invest more in long-term gas production onshore U.S. Through this, we have created a more future-proof international portfolio, focusing on prospective core areas, increasing free cash flow, strong production, lowering cost and a portfolio with low carbon intensity.
Now on to our strategic priorities for 2026 and '27 and how they guide our capital allocation. The world is changing, but one thing remains firm. Energy demand continues to grow. We are well positioned to contribute to energy security, affordability and sustainability. So first, after more than 50 years of developing the Norwegian continental shelf, we are uniquely positioned for value creation here, and we continue to invest. The Norwegian continental shelf remain the backbone of the company. In 2026, the NCS will contribute to our production growth, and we work to maintain strong production well into the next decade. In the future, as you know, we expect to make more but smaller discoveries. To ensure commerciality, we will work with partners, suppliers, authorities and unions to change the way we operate on the Norwegian continental shelf. We will develop future discoveries faster, become more efficient and increase return while improving safety further.
Next, we are set to deliver strong production and cash flow growth from our high-graded internationally -- international oil and gas portfolio. We are progressing project execution and exploration across key geographies, adding new volumes and opportunities for longevity in the portfolio. On power, we combine our renewable portfolio with flexible power to build an integrated power business and strengthen our competitiveness. We are value-driven in all we do and disciplined in execution and capital allocation. The main focus for '26 and '27 deliver safe operations and strong project execution of already sanctioned portfolio. All this, Norwegian oil and gas, international oil and gas, power are tied together by our marketing and trading capabilities, creating value uplift across our business. We are positioned to create value within low carbon solutions like carbon capture and storage, but markets are developing at a slower pace than anticipated.
In addition to the execution of Northern Lights and Northern Endurance, we will continue to mature a few selected options and markets at low cost. We will be positioned to invest as markets develops, customers are in place and returns are robust. We grow our production to even higher levels in 2026 from a record high production level in 2025. For the year, we expect a production growth of around 3%. We are ramping up new fields, which more than offset divestment and natural decline. We are replenishing our portfolio and have 3-year average reserve replacement ratio of 100%. On the NCS, we made 14 commercial discoveries last year, mainly close to existing infrastructure, adding to longevity. And we continue to explore. We have added attractive acreage in Norway, Brazil and Angola, where we expect to drill around 30 exploration wells in 2026. We expect to reduce our unit production cost to $6 per barrel. We continue to focus on delivering a carbon-efficient portfolio with a CO2 upstream intensity of 6.3 kilo per barrel.
We take firm actions to strengthen our cash flow and further increase resilience facing higher market uncertainty. In 2026, we expect around $16 billion in cash flow from operations after tax. This reflects a lower price outlook and is also impacted by the tax lag effect in Norway. A flat price assumptions is growing to around $18 billion in 2027. We have strengthened our investment program for 2026 and '27, reflecting market realities. We have reduced our CapEx outlook for these 2 years with around $4 billion, mainly within power and low carbon. This also influenced our net carbon intensity reduction for 2030 and 2035, no change to 5% to 15% and 15% to 30%, respectively. We maintain a stable investments of around $10 billion annually to oil and gas. Our CapEx guiding for 2026 is around $13 billion. This includes Empire Wind, where we, in 2027, expect to monetize investment tax credits for around $2 billion. With this, we indicate CapEx of $9 billion for 2027.
In the current situation for the offshore wind industry, we are focusing on projects in execution and have a high bar for committing capital towards new offshore wind projects. This includes our ownership in �rsted. We will continue driving cost improvements, including the portfolio high-grading we have done. We aim for 10% OpEx reduction in 2026, even while growing production. We continue with strategic portfolio optimization to strengthen future cash flow. Proceeds from the divestment of Peregrino and onshore Argentina assets is expected to contribute more than $1.1 billion this year. The action we take to strengthen our cash flow and robustness support sustainable, competitive capital distribution. This is important to me and a priority for the Board of Directors. The starting point is the cash dividend. We have set an ambition to grow the quarterly cash dividend with $0.02 per share on an annual basis. We continue to deliver on this. It represents an industry-leading increase of more than 5%.
We also continue to use share buybacks to deliver competitive total distribution. For 2026, we announced a share buyback program of $1.5 billion, including the state share. The first tranche of $375 million starts tomorrow. As previously communicated, we see true timing effects like the tax lag in Norway and the phasing of Empire Wind and lean on the balance sheet to deliver competitive capital distribution in 2026. In 2027, we have taken action to deliver stronger free cash flow. This is important to ensure that we can deliver competitive capital distribution in a long-term sustainable manner.
So with our guiding in the background, I will give the floor to Torgrim that will take you through -- further through the details. And then I look forward to questions together with Torgrim when he is finished. So Torgrim, please.
So thank you, Anders, and good morning and good afternoon, and thank you for joining us here today. So 2025 was a good year for Equinor. We delivered strong performance and record high production. But before we dive into the financial results, I want to expand on how we will manage through a period of volatility. So we are prepared for lower prices with a strong balance sheet, lower cost and CapEx and an attractive project portfolio. Our financial framework sets the boundary conditions for how capital allocation -- for our capital allocation and how we manage our company.
So to start, our highest priority will be to deliver a robust and a growing cash dividend, in line with our dividend policy, and this reflects growth in our long-term underlying earnings. Then we will continue to invest in an attractive and high-graded investment portfolio with low breakevens and strong returns in line with the following priorities. First, our unique position on the Norwegian continental shelf gives us competitive advantages. And this is why we will continue to prioritize developing this area and allocating almost 60% of our investments to an area we know better than anyone. In '26, we have 16 projects in execution in Norway. Many of these are tie-ins to existing infrastructure with low cost and very low breakevens. Then we will allocate 30% of our capital to our international oil and gas business.
This is mainly to sanctioned projects, and we expect to increase production to more than 900,000 barrels per day in 2030. And then around 10% of our capital will be allocated to building an integrated power business where the main focus is on delivering our offshore wind projects in execution safely, on time and on cost. Outside these 3 areas, we expect limited investments over the next 2 years.
As you know, we will prioritize having a strong balance sheet and liquidity necessary at all times. And this is important to manage risk and to continue to deliver value. Over the next 2 years, we will see through the timing effects such as the NCS tax lag and the tax credit on Empire Wind impacting our cash flow from operations, and we will lean on the balance sheet. We will lean on the balance sheet in 2026 to cover CapEx and distribution. Next year, in 2027, cash flow from operation is stronger, and we have lowered CapEx, significantly improving the free cash flow. So we will manage the balance sheet through this period and continue to deliver competitive capital distribution, including share buybacks. For more than a decade, we have consistently delivered an industry-leading return on capital employed. And if you ask me, that is a premium KPI that we hold very high in our company. And with this financial framework, we expect to deliver around 13% over the next 2 years, now using a lower price deck than what we have used earlier as such. So that is comparable to what we have said earlier.
We are used to managing volatility and deliver value through cycles. First, to manage cycles, we have to run with a strong balance sheet and a robust credit rating, and we have that. We have that. And having liquidity available is key. We have close to $20 billion for the time being. Second, a low cost base is important to ensure that we make money at low prices, and we continue to reduce our costs. We have a low unit production cost. And in 2026, we will further reduce it by around 10% to $6 per barrel. We are the lowest cost supplier of pipe gas to Europe with our all-in costs of less than $2 per MBtu, and we are sure that we will create significant value in any price scenario in Europe. Through strong cost performance and portfolio high-grading, we aim to reduce OpEx and SG&A by 10% in 2026. This corresponds to a flat underlying cost development, overcoming inflation while growing production. We are addressing costs in all parts of the organization.
And I want to highlight that in 2025, we brought down OpEx and SG&A in renewables by 27%, mainly due to reductions in early phase costs. And then thirdly, it is key to have a competitive project portfolio that makes sense at lower prices. And we operate a majority of our projects, giving us the flexibility needed to adjust when we want to do that. Through portfolio flexibility and high-grading, we have reduced CapEx over the next 2 years by $4 billion, made divestments totaling more than $6 billion since 2024 and strengthened the quality of our portfolio. Our average breakeven is around $40, and we see an internal rate of return of 25% in the portfolio at $65 oil. We remain a leader on CO2 efficiency and an average payback of 2.5 years. So I will call this a robust, low-risk and high-value project portfolio that will create value also at low prices.
In periods of volatility, our NCS position and our international portfolio complement each other. In Norway, we are more robust to lower prices, while internationally and particularly in the U.S., where we have strengthened our gas position, we have a large exposure to upside in prices. So Norway first. We have immediate deductions for CapEx against the special petroleum tax. And with full consolidation between fields and no asset ring-fencing, our pretax CapEx of around $6 billion translates into an after-tax investments of less than $1.5 billion. And when prices change, 78% of the effect on the revenue is absorbed by reduced taxes.
So this makes the NCS less exposed to lower prices than other basins. So what happens if prices change? With a $10 move in oil prices, the cash flow is only impacted by $1.2 billion, and this is across the global portfolio and adjusted for tax lag. For European gas, a $2 change equals $800 million. What is particularly interesting is the U.S. gas, where the production is now 1/3 of our Norwegian gas position. But still, a $2 movement in gas price has a similar effect on cash flow after tax as in Norway.
So let me elaborate more on the U.S. gas as that has become even more important to us. So in 2025, we delivered around $1 billion in cash flow from operations out of that asset. Production increased by 45% on back of well-timed acquisitions to around 300,000 barrels per day, capturing gas prices that were more than 50% higher than in 2024. We have a low unit production cost for U.S. gas around $1 per barrel, and we are well positioned to benefit from robust power load growth and increased demand in the Northeast. We are marketing our gas ourselves, and we are able to add value through trading, pipeline capacity and access to premium markets such as New York City and Toronto. So in January this year, gas prices in the Northeast reached very high levels driven by the winter storms, and we used our infrastructure and trading to capture quite a bit of value out of that volatility.
Okay. So now to our fourth quarter and full year results. These slides sums up the key numbers you heard from Anders. Safety is our first priority. We see strong safety results, but we need to continue improving with force. Return on average capital employed in '25 was 14.5%. Cash flow from operations after tax came in at $18 billion, and earnings per share was strong at $0.81. For the year, we produced 2,137,000 barrels per day. This is record high and up 3.4% from last year, driven by ramp-up on Johan Castberg and Halten East on the NCS, U.S. onshore gas and new wells coming on stream. In the quarter, production was up 6% despite some operational issues in Norway and in Brazil. On the NCS, Johan Sverdrup had another strong year. For power, we produced 5.65 terawatt hours and renewables power generation was up by 25%.
So then to financials. Adjusted operating income from E&P Norway totaled $5 billion, driven by increased production at lower prices. Depreciation was up compared to last year due to new fields on stream. Our E&P International results were impacted by portfolio changes and an underlift situation in the quarter. In the U.S., results were driven by significantly higher gas production, capturing higher prices. And in our MMP segment, results were driven by gas trading and optimization and a favorable price review result in January. So the result of this price review explains the difference from the MMP guidance. So this is a one-off. However, important enough, and the cash flow impact will be somewhat higher than the accounting effect, and it will come in 2026. On a group level, we had net impairments of $626 million and losses on sale of assets of $282 million. These do not impact adjusted numbers. A significant part of this relates to the Peregrino and the Adura transactions, and they are mainly driven by accounting treatment of these transactions, more of a technical nature.
Adjusted OpEx and SG&A was up 7% compared to the same quarter last year and up 9% for the year. These are driven by transportation costs, insurance claims and currency. For the year, underlying OpEx and SG&A was up 1%. And if you adjust for currency headwinds, it was actually slightly down. For the year, our cash flow from operations came in at $18 billion after tax, in line with our guidance when we adjust for changes in prices. Organic CapEx for the year was $13.1 billion, also in line with what we said. Our net debt to capital employed ended at 17.8%. This increase from last quarter is mainly driven by NCS tax payments and �rsted rights issue participation and somewhat increasing working capital.
So let me conclude with our guiding. For 2026, we expect $13 billion in organic CapEx and a 3% growth in oil and gas production. We have increased our quarterly cash dividend by more than 5% now at $0.39 per share and announced a share buyback of up to $1.5 billion for the year, starting with the first tranche tomorrow. So thank you very much for the attention.
And now I will leave the word back to you, B�rd, for the Q&A session. So thanks.
Thank you, both Anders and Torgrim. We will now start the Q&A. [Operator Instructions] So then we'll start. And the first hand I saw was Teodor Sveen-Nilsen from Sparebank.
2. Question Answer
Congrats on strong results. So 2 questions. First on CapEx. You obviously reduced the guidance for 2027. I just wonder how we should interpret the run rate into 2028. Should we also assume that 2028 CapEx will be well below the $13 billion you previously announced? Or is that too early to say anything about?
And second question, that is on MMP. Could you just explain what's behind the price review that boosted the results?
Thank you very much. So you can think about the price review, Torgrim, while I'm talking about the CapEx. Yes, you're right. We have reduced the CapEx. We have -- when we are looking into the CapEx profile over the last years, we have had consistency. You have seen that we have consistency investing into Norwegian oil and gas and in international oil and gas. And last year and this year, we are reducing the CapEx outlook for our renewables and low carbon solutions. And this is due to that 2, 3 years ago, we had a different market view than we have today. We don't expect that this market will change dramatically over the next years. We intend to continue focusing, investing consistently into our attractive oil and gas portfolio that Torgrim demonstrated and be market-driven and invest in low-carbon solution and power when the time is right, the profitability is right and the market comes.
So I cannot give you the guiding for '28 already. But with this consistency investments in oil and gas and this change we have done in the CapEx for renewables and low carbon solutions and the market will probably not change very much over the next years, I think you will see somewhat consistency in our CapEx guiding going forward, and we will come back to more details about this in June.
And thanks, Teodor. On the price review, that is a normal mechanism in many of the gas contracts where sort of if the price in the contract dislocates from what the market should have been and the price should have been, we have a mechanism to renegotiate or open up that. We often disagree with customers in processes like this. And often, we take such things into arbitration as we have done in this case. So that has gone on for a while, and we won in that arbitration. Over the year, we have accrued revenue related to that because we consider that we had a strong case. We had an even better outcome than what we accrued as such. So this will be a one-off payment during the year. And from now on, there is a new mechanism in place on that contract as such.
Sorry, Teodor, I need to stick to the 2 questions because we want to cover as many as possible. And the next one is on my list is John Olaisen, ABG Sundal Collier.
First question is regarding Johan Sverdrup...
John, please use the microphone so people can hear you online.
Okay. Sorry. It's John Olaisen from ABG. My first question is regarding Johan Sverdrup. Anders, you quoted in the media today saying that you expect it to decline by more than 10% this year. I wanted to elaborate a little bit more on that. How much more? And do we expect the same for the next few years? So that's my first question on Johan Sverdrup production profile.
The second question is regarding M&A. You've sold a lot of assets internationally. So I wonder, do you still have assets on the sales list internationally? And also secondly, it's a long time since you bought assets internationally. Do you have -- are you looking at potential acquisitions internationally? Those are the 2 questions, Sverdrup and M&A.
Thank you. First of all, when it comes to Sverdrup, I think we have demonstrated over many, many years how we've been able to keep up the production, even increase it due to the fantastic work that is done by the people working with Johan Sverdrup. Then a field like this is like all other fields, eventually, it will come into decline, and we see that now. So we see a decline in Johan Sverdrup for 2026, which is more than 10%, but well below 20% and that is what we put into our numbers. Still, we will have a growth in Equinor of 3% for 2026 and actually also a growth both on the Norwegian continental shelf and internationally. And of course, based on all the good work, drilling new wells, placing the wells better, retrofitting the wells, high production efficiency, have a high water cut and flow through the separators. The team is working to make sure that this decline is as low as possible. But above 10, well below 20 is what we see and kind of planning for in 2026.
Well, we don't have a specific list of M&A sales candidates and targets that we disclose. But I think what you have seen, what we have done in the past, we have been active both in divestment where we think the timing is right to create value and where we see that future investment can be used better elsewhere that we have monetized those assets. And when we have seen opportunistic opportunities to invest, we have done it like twice in the U.S. gas in the Marcellus. You can expect us to be active going forward. And we have had a strategy of optimizing the international business, and we have optimized it now and set it clear for growth. And now is the focus to deliver on that growth finding more attractive exploration opportunities within those selected areas and at the same time, be open for value-accretive opportunities in the market.
Thank you. Next on my list is Henri Patricot from UBS.
Two questions from me. The first one on the cash flow guidance for '26, '27, you do show this meaningful improvement in '27 to $18 billion. Could you give us a bit more of a breakdown behind this improvement? I think you mentioned Empire Wind starting up, some tax lag effect. What else is contributing to this sharp increase?
And then secondly, I was wondering, there's uncertainty still around Empire Wind 1. What would be the impact to the financial framework you presented today if the project does not complete or implications for the broader CapEx and shareholder returns?
So if you, Torgrim start with Empire Wind, then I can take on the CapEx reduction for '27 afterwards.
Okay. So thanks, Henri. On the Empire Wind, clearly, we are steered by sort of forward-looking economics and forward-looking cash flows when we make up our mind. So from now on, the remainder of investments will be covered by the ITC and cash flow from operations over the next 2 years in a way. So the threshold for not moving forward with it is extremely high in a way. I mean the total economics of that project life cycle is something else. But clearly, the decision that we have to make is actually how it look going forward. And going forward, it's actually pretty solid. So the threshold for stopping it is very high. Our job is to deliver this on time and schedule. And I must say, I am extremely proud of what that project organization has been able to do through all of this volatility this year to keep it steady on the track. So we are on track to deliver, and we have no other plans than that.
Yes. And then the cash flow from operation that is increasing from $16 billion to $18 billion towards '27. This is based on flat price assumption, $65 on the oil price and $9 and $3.5 for Europe and U.S., respectively. And the answer here is that this is the tax lag. We are this year paying a higher tax based on higher prices last year on the Norwegian continental shelf. And it's also a 3% production increase in 2026 that will also contribute to a higher cash flow.
Good. I have a long list also online. So let's take a few from there. The first one to raise his hand was Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.
Just the first one is a follow-up on Johan Sverdrup. You mentioned the decline for 2026. What is in your base case for 2027 and beyond? Because obviously, it's quite a big part of your portfolio. It'd be good to get some clarity there on the decline rates.
And then the second question is just on the Empire Wind budget has obviously gone up a little bit. How should we think about how much contingency you have in that new $7.5 billion budget?
Well, when it comes to -- we are guiding now on Johan Sverdrup for 2026. And to say what it will be in '27 is too early. As I said, we have a fantastic team there that will do everything they can to reduce this decline. We will drill new wells. And I also remind you that in the end of '27, we will have Johan Sverdrup Phase 3 coming on stream as well. We have ramp-up of other fields on the Norwegian continental shelf, meaning that despite this reduction in '26 decline in Johan Sverdrup, we will still have a production growth. And then we will see now how Johan Sverdrup behave during the first part of the decline and how we are mitigated and then we will come back to it. So it's too early to say.
When the increases on the Empire Wind, it's very much related to 2 elements, is tariffs that has been imposed to the project and is also an effect of the first stop-work order that we had. The second stop-work order, we were able to execute part of the project, most of the project in the beginning of the stop-work order. And the most important parts of the progress, we were able to do after the preliminary injunction. So very little effect of the project. So it's the execution part of it -- it's going well in terms of CapEx -- use of CapEx in this project, but there is a remaining uncertainty on tariffs. You might remember a couple of weeks ago, a 10% tariff due to Greenland that was removed a little bit a few days later, and that is some of the uncertainty that we are facing with this project.
The next one on the list is Alastair Syme from Citi.
Just one question really to Anders. I just wanted to reflect on the journey that Equinor has been on in recent years with respect to the transition because you are signaling today a further scaling back in ambitions with a lower CapEx and look, I know you're not alone in doing this in the industry. But if I go back a few years ago, you had outlined a competitive position where Equinor could be differentiated in the transition space. So I guess my question is, what are your reflections on this journey? And what do you think has happened that is different to what you anticipated several years ago?
Thank you. It's a really good question. And I think kind of this is where we were saying today that we are signaling a consistency. We have over the last 5 years, been extremely consistent in our communication around oil and gas and how we will develop the oil and gas portfolio, optimize it, and we have delivered on that. But we also had a different market view on offshore wind and the transportation and storage of CO2 in particular. This is where we were -- had experience. We saw a market growing for transportation and storage of CO2 going faster than we actually have seen. We -- for instance, also for hydrogen, a couple of years ago, we actually had head of terms contracts with customers. Those has been canceled, meaning that we have not been able to progress a lot of these projects within that area. But keeping in mind, we were able to -- been able to do Northern Lights -- Northern Lights Phase 2, Northern Endurance. So we see now that the licensing for or support regimes and applications for capturing CO2 goes slower despite that the framework and the laws are much more in favor of CO2 now than it was before.
So to summarize very quickly, we had a different market view some years ago based on real discussions with governments and potential customers than we have today. 3, 4 years ago, customers called us to buy natural gas and was also asking for potential hydrogen and transportation and storage of CO2. Today, they continue to buy natural gas, but they have postponed their own targets for reducing emissions beyond 2030. Some years ago when everyone had a 2030 target, much more focus from customers to have this market up and running very fast. Now with different targets beyond 2030 to collect enough CO2 to have long-term contracts we have found it very difficult. That's why we are allocating no more CapEx into that area due to the market conditions. So that is what had happened. And we have focused on business-to-business with hard-to-abate industry that has postponed the targets.
Next question is from Irene Himona from Bernstein.
My first question is one of clarification really. You referred to your objective to build an integrated power portfolio. Typically, when your peers refer to integrated power, they mean essentially adding gas-fired power generation to renewables. So I wanted to ask what does integrated power mean for you? And how does �rsted fit in that?
My second question, just going back to the share buyback. Previously, in the past, you had guided to a long-term sustainable through-the-cycle share buyback of around about $2 billion. Today, you lowered that to $1.5 billion. I'm just trying to understand what has changed between then and now essentially.
You can start with that, Torgrim, and I'll do the integrated power.
Okay. Thanks, Irene. So well, we have said at earlier years, $1.2 billion as sort of the sustainable level in a way. So $1.5 billion is actually above that. We retired the $1.2 billion a bit back. To give a little bit more context, Irene, it's the concept of having a stable share buyback through a cycle, comes a little bit theoretical. We're just coming out of a super cycle, and we have returned $54 billion over the last 3 years based on that in a way. So where we are now, we are actually the first year where the balance sheet is normalized, and we aim to manage within our means. So the number that we put forward today is $1.5 billion. We are leaning on the balance sheet this year, but you have seen in 2027. So we want to sort of give you an outlook for -- over a couple of years here. So the way you should think about share buyback is that it is a natural part of the capital distribution. It is something that is regular and is on top of the cash dividend. And the cash dividend, you should see -- consider as bankable. Share buyback clearly will be more dependent on macro environment as we move forward.
When it comes to integrated power, for us, that means both intermittent power like offshore wind, onshore wind, solar, in addition to flexible power, batteries and CCGTs. We do have exposure in all of this. We have gas to power in U.K. We have battery in Poland and onshore and offshore and solar. This was divided in different business area. Now everything is integrated into one business area power. And then we have Danske Commodities that are able to integrate this totality and add additional value to this.
Having said that, the priority within Integrated Power over the next year is to deliver on the already sanctioned projects. And from that, we are able to potentially if we have the right investment opportunity to expand further on the integrated power. But of course, with our gas position in Europe and U.S., we are, of course, well positioned also for gas to power if we see the right opportunities in the future. �rsted and working together with �rsted and collaboration with �rsted, as we have said, fits into this type of integrated power. We can be exposed in offshore wind in different ways and working together with �rsted, collaborating with �rsted will fit into an integrated power in different types of potential structures.
Thank you, Irene, for that. I'll take one more on the phone and then return to the room here. The next one is Paul Redman from BNP Paribas.
My first question is just how do you think about growth at Equinor? The reason I asked that question is at the Capital Markets Day last year, you highlighted a flat to decline in production 2026 plus. And I'm assuming that included some Vaca Muerta production as well. You're heavily cutting the renewable portfolio spend. So just how do we think about growth going forward from here?
And then secondly, when I look at MMP, I guess the long-term -- well, the annual guidance was $1.6 billion, $400 million a quarter. You generated about $1.25 billion to $1.3 billion for the quarter if I take out the long-term gas contract review from this quarter. Is there any reason the guidance isn't updated? And how should we think about MMP going forward?
I'll start with the growth, and we divide it so you can take the MMP. Well, let's start with the renewables. We have said that we don't want to invest more than what we have already sanctioned, but that will create a growth. We had a 45% growth quarter-to-quarter on the renewable business this year, 25% on the annual -- in 2025. So still growth in Integrated Power over the next year. And then as I said, we will have to think how we can create further profitable and disciplined growth into that area.
When it comes to the international business, we have repositioned that portfolio. And you can expect from today's level towards 2030, growing this production towards 900 million barrels a day. So it's clearly a growth in there, growth in production, growth in free cash flow. On the Norwegian continental shelf, we will continue to explore. We -- it will be difficult to create further growth in -- on the Norwegian continental shelf, but we have received attractive acreage. We will drill 26 exploration wells on the Norwegian continental shelf next year. We're working on reducing the time from exploration to production from 5 to 7 years to 2 to 3 years, enabling more efficiency to be able to keep the production at the highest possible level on the Norwegian continental shelf and growing free cash flow from that portfolio. And that is what we're aiming for, for Norwegian continental shelf internationally and integrated power.
Thanks, Paul. On MMP. So if you strip away the price review, you get to around $400 million in the fourth quarter, which is very much around sort of what we guide at. So that's sort of -- that's what you should, in a way, expect on a quarterly basis. However, there will be fluctuations as you very well know. What typically drives results are volatility in commodity markets and also contango versus backwardation. I can give you one example actually from January, where there has been a lot of volatility in the gas market. And in Europe, we have a 70% day ahead exposure and a 30% month ahead exposure. So you can rest assure that sort of the spikes you have seen in January, it finds its way to our P&L in Europe.
In the U.S., we don't have -- we don't sort of have a firm exposure that we want, but clearly, the traders keep a certain part open. So when going into January, in the U.S., our traders left 30% exposed to the prompt or cash prices as such. So at the most extreme, for instance, the in-basin price for Marcellus gas was $60 per MBtu, and we took that. And then we have a transportation capacity into New York, actually coming up at Penn Station. And we achieved more than $100 per MBtu in that weekend as such. So just examples of when you see volatility, you should expect us to be able to get it in a way. So that's why these results typically fluctuates.
Thank you, Paul. Vidar Lyngv�r from Danske Bank.
First, just another clarification on the renewable spending in 2027. You're reducing CapEx by $4 billion. I get the tax credit part. Could you add some more color on where the remaining cut comes from?
Second, Johan Sverdrup, you mentioned the decline rates there. Are those exit to exit, so exit '25 to exit '26? Or is it average production decline in '26 versus average in '25?
Johan Sverdrup exit to exit or -- let's come back to the specifics on that. But I do think it is when you compare sort of the last year production with next year production as such. And just -- yes, and team is nodding there. So that is the way it works, yes.
Yes. Yes, a little bit more color to this. As I answered earlier, we had a different market view. So we had, for instance, potential hydrogen project, transportation of CCS project in the CapEx outlook that we showed last year, those projects are not materializing. In addition, we have reduced our onshore renewable CapEx as well. And in total, this adds up to those $4 billion and together also with the ITC as you have seen.
Good. Steffen Evjen from DNB Carnegie.
On the ITC, just could you please remind me on the milestones they are required for that payment to come in, in terms of first power and any other things that has to be fulfilled?
My second question is just a clarification on Adura. I think you said $1 billion in dividends. Is that your share? Or is that the total share to both shareholders?
It's our share and then the ITC. ITC, yes. So the way it works is that you can recognize it when you start production and sort of that is sort of scale as you continue to start up the various turbines. So what we have assumed is that we recognize all of this in 2027 because that's sort of the plan. There is an upside that there is some ITCs recognized in 2026. We haven't based our analysis on it. So that is sort of the recognition part. And then there is -- so what is the cash flow impact of it. And it will take some time from we recognize it to the cash flow is in our account. So what you see on the slide is that we have assumed $2 billion impact of the ITC in '27, while the total number, the absolute number is $2.5 billion. So that sort of give you a little bit of a perspective around this. It is a significant financial operations to manage all of this, as you would know, but there is a large and growing market for ITC in a well-functioning market in the U.S. for this.
Next one is Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley.
I've got 2, if I may. I wanted to ask you again about the CapEx reductions. I know there have been a few questions about it already. But when Equinor took the initial 10% stake in �rsted, very soon thereafter, we also had a reduction in the CapEx outlook for offshore wind, renewables in general. And in many ways, that had the character, therefore, when you put these 2 things together, it's like, well, we do less organically and we do more inorganically. It was sort of not a total reduction, but it had an element of we're swapping one type of spending for another type of spending. And I was wondering how we should interpret this reduction in CapEx on this occasion. If power and low carbon CapEx goes down, is that -- should we interpret that as well, the company is just going to do less of that stuff? Or should we anticipate that in the fullness of time, this also turns out to be a swap, less organic, but more inorganic. I was hoping you could say a few things about that.
And then the other question I wanted to ask is about the 10% OpEx and SG&A reduction target. Like 10% in a single year is quite a significant amount and also because Ecuador has already been very focused on that for some time. I was positively surprised that there's still sort of that type of opportunity available. Could you talk a little bit about the key levers, where that spending can be reduced? And also just for the avoidance of 10%, how does that translate into absolute sort of absolute dollar amounts, that would be helpful?
Let's start with that question first, and Torgrim.
Okay. Thanks, Martijn. So on the 10% reduction. So over the last years, we have been able to maintain OpEx and SG&A flat even if we have grown our production and despite the inflation as such. So our people and organization has done a good job. Next year, we expect that number to come down by 10%. That is a very big number. However, it is a significant impact of divestment of Peregrino and the establishment of Adura that will be equity accounted as such. So the reported numbers will be down 10%. But when you adjust for structural changes, we expect to maintain OpEx and SG&A flat, growing by 3% and still inflation as such. So this comes from many sources.
First of all, activity level. Clearly, we have taken down and prioritized that very hard. That has a direct impact on it. We have taken down early phase costs significantly in the portfolio, also a significant contributor. Staff are continue to high grade and take out efficiencies. And then the business areas are clearly working on this. So -- but on your question, is there more to come? And the answer is yes, we are never satisfied with where we are on this. And I can give you 2 examples of what to come. One is the work around NCS 2035. We do see a significant cost impact of that. So we hope to show more on that in June. The other one is actually artificial intelligence. So we have already see that in our numbers, NOK 1 billion or so, which is good. However, this is early days. And we do believe that with our large operations and our ability to take out effect across assets that AI can really be a significant contributor to further cost improvements. So we'll continue to fight and work this -- but the 10% is clearly colored by the inorganic moves we have done.
Yes. So -- and thank you for that CapEx question, Martijn. And let me elaborate a little bit how I think around this because you probably see now that several times, we have taken down the renewables and low-carbon solution CapEx. And it's not necessarily because we have done any inorganic moves. It's also because we have not been successful in some of the bidding because we have raised the bar for winning future CFDs. And a couple of years ago, we had several projects inside our CapEx outlook that is now not inside the CapEx outlook due to deliberately not being successful in those auctions. So a more positive view some years ago, as we said during the �rsted acquisition of 10%, we found it more value creating at that point in time, do an inorganic move than do organic move. This -- we have further taken down the CapEx for offshore wind, but also on onshore renewables.
A couple of years ago and last year, we had a much more positive market view and direct discussions with customers for CO2 highway and the hydrogen project in Eemshaven, which are now pushed further out in time. And actually, the hydrogen projects in Eemshaven is stopped before FEED, and we will not move forward. And in these areas, I don't think there are many inorganic moves to be done that will create value. So you should not expect us to work much on this. We will continue to work on being a leading company in terms of transportation and storage of CO2, building on Northern Lights 1, 2 and Endurance, but we will not make investments before we see -- we have long-term contracts, we have seen costs coming down and we see profitable projects. And that means that there needs to be a better market than we see today.
Thank you, Martijn. Next one is Nash Cui from Barclays.
Two questions, please. The first one is on your upstream reserve life. I wonder how do you think about a reasonable level of upstream reserve life in the medium to long run, please could better technologies like AI to help extend base?
Then my second question is on �rsted. I think earlier, you mentioned that you could collaborate more with �rsted in kind of different types of potential structures. And I wonder if you could elaborate what you mean by the potential structures?
Well, you have seen what we have done, just an example with Shell in U.K. There's always way to work together to create value for both shareholders. But there is no discussion at the moment, but we see that a further collaboration with �rsted could benefit both companies, but nothing new to elaborate today. When it comes to reserve life, I think this will also -- the ROP will be affected in the years to come that we have many more exploration wells, smaller discoveries and faster time from discoveries to production, meaning that the ROP will be lower than traditionally when we had the big elephants on the Norwegian continental shelf.
At the same time, we are comfortable with our ROP where we see it today around 7 because we have so many exploration wells, we have discoveries. And last year, we had 14 discoveries, adding in total 125 million barrels in new resources. Lofn and Langemann, which is in Sleipner area is in an area where we thought there was nothing more to be found, but new technology, new seismic, use of AI has enabled us to make more discoveries. We have seen the same in the Ringvei Vest area. So we will continue to implement AI in exploration to ensure that we are able to discover new resources that was overseen in the past that we now can drill and bring to market in a quicker way. And by using AI, not only on exploration, but also in operations, and so on. We saved $130 million last year, and this is accelerating. So as Torgrim said earlier, we are really focusing on implementing AI to create value in the company. And this is something that you will hear more about in the future.
Next is Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen.
I wanted to first go back to the Empire Wind guidance. And I'm wondering if the $600 million of cash flow, is that what Equinor expects to receive? Or are there going to be some repayments on the project financing that are going to minimize that in the earlier years? And I wonder if you have a similar number for the Dogger projects.
And then my follow-up is just on kind of broader exploration opportunities beyond what you've discussed. And we've seen companies kind of going back into regions where fiscal terms have improved like the Middle East and West Africa. I wonder if you look at those regions as potential opportunities for the company to exploit or given kind of the lack of footprint in those regions, is it not a core focus?
Yes. I'll start with that question, and you can do the $600 million and the synergy effects there. So basically, what you have seen, what we have done in the international oil and gas portfolio is to focus it. We were in 30 to 40 countries, high cost, high exploration cost. And we have concluded that we were not successful with that strategy, adding too much cost and too little of progress in putting new resources into the inventory. So we have worked very hard to focus and building an attractive exploration portfolio in those focused areas like in Angola, in Brazil and in U.S. offshore. And of course, Bidenor East Canada, we're working on the Bidenor field, where this will also have attractive exploration opportunities around it, similar to what we see on Castberg and other new fields.
Then, of course, we will, of course, always be open for ideas and value-adding exploration activity outside this core, but the bar is high. We will not have a global exploration strategy moving around in all parts of the world. We have areas where we see now we have learned the basin. We have experience, and we think we can expand quite a lot on that one. Brazil, for one instance, by Bacalhau, the Raya, we have an attractive exploration opportunities there now, the neighbor block to the Bumerangue discoveries for BP. We have a block close to Raya, and we're maturing up to see what kind of exploration program we can have in that area. And next -- and in this year, we will actually also drill exploration wells in Angola. So we are curious about other areas, but we'll have most of our focus in the focused area.
And then Jason, on the $600 million in cash flow related to Empire Wind, that is related to our equity as such. There's no sort of money of that, that goes to the lenders. A couple of things. There is a portfolio effect in addition to the cash flow within the project. And that is related to that the depreciation that we have in Empire Wind goes into the IFRS results and the minimum tax in the U.S. is based on IFRS results. So it sort of reduces the minimum tax payments in the states as such. So there's a portfolio effect coming on top of the direct cash flow in the project as such.
Just to clarify in the CFFO, the interest payment is included, but not the payment to the lenders, as you said. Thank you, Jason. Kim Fustier from HSBC is next on my list.
I had a couple on the NCS, please. Firstly, I believe that back in November, you announced a reorganization of your NCS business along centralized functional lines like subsea drilling, et cetera. Could you give a bit more color on this? And how does that move help to set you up for a future on the NCS with fewer big developments, but more small developments?
And then secondly, could you give an update on a couple of pre-FID projects, Wisting and then Bay du Nord in Canada, where there seems to have been some technical progress lately?
Yes. Thank you. So the Norwegian continental shelf is changing. With after Johan Sverdrup and Bacalhau, we have, as I said, much more smaller discoveries, smaller fields. Most of the developments will be now subsea tie-in projects. We actually have 75 of those in our portfolio over the next 10 years. So it's about making sure that we're able to execute on these projects faster. We are going -- that we can drill more exploration well faster, and we can create more value. So then we have actually started with looking into how we work. how is our work processes, all the way from working together with partners, internal approval processes, field development processes for subsea tie-in and so on. We have looked at 70 work processes, how to -- for drilling to development and so on.
We have simplified those work processes, and we have looked at them together such that all these processes are streamlined end to end. And just to say a change that I will do, instead of making 7, 8 individual decisions on these projects one by one, we will group the decision. And twice a year, I will make a lump decision of several projects, enabling faster decision-making processes and ensure that we're able to move this project faster.
Based on changing the way we work, we are also reorganizing both the project organization, the drilling organization and the operation units on the Norwegian continental shelf, not offshore, but all the onshore function, enabling to work according to the new simplified work processes. So this is actually one of the largest changes we have done developing the Norwegian continental shelf since we established the StatoilHydro company and merged StatoilHydro back in 2007, 2008. So it's actually changing the way we work because the geology and the reserves on the Norwegian continental shelf changes. And what do we want to achieve? Well, we want to move time from discovery to production from 5 to 7 years to 2 to 3 years, and we need to increase the volumes that we are able to find during exploration, meaning that we need a 200 to 300 efficiency gains on the Norwegian continental shelf.
When it comes to Wisting, this is far in the north in the Barents Sea, challenging projects. We're working hard to simplify it. We have made a lot of progress in that respect. We will work on concluding on the concept during first half of 2026 or in 2026 and then move towards hopefully a DG3 during 2027. But let me underline this. We are not schedule driven. This is a project where we have to make sure that this is the right project, right financial, right breakeven, NPV, and we have everything in place because this is a very, very challenging project.
On the Bay du Nord, we are approaching also a concept selection at what we call Decision Gate 2. We have a good engagement with local authorities and the government of Canada to -- so we can work together. This is a very good project. We have worked well together with suppliers for a long time to take down the cost and the breakeven as much as possible. And if we are successful now over the next months, then we can bring it towards an investment decisions over the next -- over the next years. And both these projects, if we are successful, will contribute to high production beyond 2030.
Thank you, Kim. I have a few left on my list, and I want to cover as many as possible. So I ask that you limit yourself to one question to give as many as possible the opportunity. Next one is Chris Kuplent from Bank of America.
I'll keep it to one question for Torgrim, and please forgive me for some quick mental math. But when you set your $1.5 billion buyback, are you effectively arguing over the course of '26 and '27, considering the lumps and bumps in your CFFO as well as CapEx, you're targeting to be free cash flow neutral after dividends and buybacks. Am I putting too many words in your mouth? Or is that a fair characterization of what you're trying to do over the next 2 years?
Well, Chris, I think I need to be very precise here. So I mean, you're on to it. So clearly, you should look across those 2 years when you think about sort of our free cash flow generation that we have available to cash dividend and share buyback. We aim to run with a solid balance sheet. However, we are going to lean on the balance sheet in '26, well aware that next year is a larger free cash flow. So it makes sense to look across those 2 years. And we have done that when we have set the share buyback level for '26 as such, we have.
Thank you, Chris. Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.
Just one on Empire Wind and read-throughs from it. I mean it seems Equinor has done a good job keeping the project execution on track amid the past hold orders. But I just wonder how the company reflects on implications from this and having retained 100% equity stake through it for best assessing risk management and risk-adjusted returns, let's say, on future capital allocations. Are there learnings that are emerging from Empire Wind for optimal sizing, taking into account perhaps above as well as belowground factors?
Thank you. That's a really good question. And yes, this is definitely something to reflect on. And we normally don't take 100% in any license, not on oil and gas and not in offshore wind. But due to a deal with BP, they took some and we took this. We derisked it somewhat with higher strike prices with a financing package. And then as you have seen, the political risk with the new administration was higher than anticipated. This is a trend we see now in several countries that energy investments are more and more politicalized and polarized. And we see it in Norway. We see it in U.K., we see it in U.S. And definitely, for us, this brings some reflections about what is the above-ground risk you can take.
And for myself, I reflected quite a lot about to see bipartisan support for future projects. If there is a kind of a strong division for potential projects, then we need to think twice and really understand the political risk. And this is something new. It's not only in U.S. This is something new that we have seen lately in several countries. And kind of we need to adapt the learning, and we need to bring into future decision processes definitely. Very important question you raised there. And with the political changes we have seen, which were kind of outweighted all the other factors that was reducing the risk, we would have probably thought differently about Empire Wind in the past.
Thank you. We are on the hour, but let's take one more and hope is short and then we'll round it off, and that is you, James Carmichael from Berenberg.
Just one last quick one, I think. Just again on Empire Wind. I was just wondering if you could clarify your sort of best case estimate on the timing of the underlying court case and when we might be able to sort of put any uncertainty to be around sort of future hold orders, et cetera.
Yes. This is a little bit early to say kind of because it's a judge in U.S. to decide that timing when this -- the merits of the case will come up for the court. There's been indication that will happen fairly quick with some couple of months, and that gives us opportunity to elaborate on the case in a good way. I just want to also remind you that all the 4 other operators we're doing exactly the same thing, challenging this in court and all of them were granted a preliminary injunction. We mean that this stop-work order was unlawful. And at least with so consistent preliminary injunction, I think also we have a strong case moving forward. But I'm an engineer and not a lawyer. So -- but yes, we are moving forward with a strong belief that we will have a good case in the court, strong case.
Thank you. I would like to thank you all for participating and for asking your questions. We didn't manage all the way through the list, but I want to be respectful for everybody's time. And as always, the Investor Relations team remain available for any follow-up questions during today or later in the week. Have a good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for joining.
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Equinor — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Equinor — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Solide 2025-Ergebnisse: Rekordproduktion und $18 Mrd. operativer Cashflow – Fokus auf Cash‑Stärke, CapEx‑Senkung und Risiko‑management (Empire Wind).
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Produktion: 2,137,000 bpd im Jahr (+3.4% YoY), Quartal +6%.
- CFFO: $18 Mrd. operativer Cashflow nach Steuern für 2025 (in Linie mit Guidance).
- Rentabilität: Return on Average Capital Employed 14.5%.
- Ergebnis: Adjusted EPS $0.81; Nettoabschreibungen $626M, Verluste aus Verkäufen $282M (nicht-adjustiert).
- Kosten & Verschuldung: Organic CapEx 2025 $13.1 Mrd.; Net Debt/Capital Employed 17.8%; OpEx/SG&A -10% Ziel für 2026 (teilweise strukturell).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Kapitalallokation: Priorität NCS (≈60% Investitionen), 30% international O&G, ~10% Integrated Power; weiterhin hohes Disziplin.
- Portfolio‑High‑grading: CapEx‑Ausblick 2026–27 um $4 Mrd. reduziert, Verkäufe (z.B. Argentinien $1.1 Mrd.) zur Kapitalfreisetzung.
- Distribution: Quartalsdividende erhöht auf $0.39/Share (>5%); Share buyback $1.5 Mrd. für 2026 (erste Tranche $375M).
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- 2026 Guidance: Organic CapEx ~ $13 Mrd.; Produktion +3%; CFFO nach Steuern ~ $16 Mrd. (Steuer‑Lag wirkt).
- 2027 Projektion: CFFO ~ $18 Mrd. (bei $65/bbl, EUR gas $9, US gas $3.5); CapEx 2027 indikativ $9 Mrd. inkl. Empire Wind ITC.
- Empire Wind: Gesamt‑CapEx ~ $7.5 Mrd., >60% fertig, restliche CapEx ≈ $3 Mrd.; ITC erwarteter Cash‑Effekt ~ $2.5 Mrd. (erwartet $2.0 Mrd. in 2027 nach Anerkennung).
- Effizienz: Ziel Unit production cost $6/Barrel in 2026; CO2‑Upstream‑Intensity ~6.3 kg/Barrel.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Empire Wind‑Risiko: Rechtsstreit/Stop‑work, mögliche Zölle/Tariffs und Timing der Gerichtsentscheidung wurden intensiv hinterfragt; Management sieht hohe Schwelle, Projekt zu stoppen.
- Johan Sverdrup: Erwarteter Rückgang >10% (exit‑to‑exit, deutlich unter 20%) in 2026; Unsicherheit über 2027 bleibt.
- CapEx & Transition: Warum CapEx für Renewables sinkt – Management nennt schlechtere Marktbedingungen, höhere Marktanforderungen und selektive Investitions‑/M&A‑Strategie (mehr Fokus, weniger Breite).
- MMP Einmaleffekt: Preisprüfungs‑Arbitrage erhöhte Q‑Ergebnis; ohne Einmaleffekt entspricht MMP‑Quarterly etwa $400M.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Relevanz: Für Aktionäre ist das Call eine Bestätigung: Equinor setzt Priorität auf Cash‑Generierung, Dividendenwachstum und disziplinierte CapEx‑Allokation. Kurzfristig bestehen Risiken (Empire Wind, Öl/Gas‑Volatilität, Steuer‑Timing 2026), langfristig stützt sich der Wert auf rekordhohe Produktion, ein hochgegradetes Portfolio und klare Kapital‑Rückfluss‑Pläne.
Equinor — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by. My name is Kate, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Equinor Analyst Call Q3. [Operator Instructions] After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Bård Glad Pedersen, Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, operator, and welcome to everybody who has called in for the analyst call for Equinor's third quarter results. Torgrim Reitan, our CFO, is here with me, and he will take you through the results before we open for the Q&A. As usual, we will close this session within 1 hour. So with that, Torgrim, I hand you to take us through the results.
Okay. So thank you, Bård and good morning, and thank you for joining us. Before we get to our results, I have a look at the photo Bacalhau, which came on stream in October. It is the first presold project in Brazil, developed by an international operator. We reserved more than 1 billion barrels and production capacity of 220,000 barrels per day. This will contribute significantly to our international growth. The results and cash flow we report today are driven by strong operational performance.
Production is up 7% from third quarter last year. Johan Sverdrup delivered close to 100% regularity and Johan Castberg is producing a plateau with a premium to Brent of around $5. The adjusted operating income was $6.2 billion before tax and net income was negative $0.2 billion, impacted by net impairments, mainly due to lower long-term oil price outlook.
Year-to-date, our cash flow from operations after tax has been strong at $14.7 billion. Our adjusted earnings per share was $0.37, impacted by negative results from financial items and a one-off effect related to decommissioning of Titan. Energy markets continue to be volatile. Geopolitical unrest, tariffs and trade tensions continue to impact pricing and trading conditions. We are prepared for this. We have a solid balance sheet, strong production and a robust portfolio. In addition, we take forceful action to manage costs. These efforts are visible in our results. Costs are now stable year-to-date compared to last year, and this is in line with what we had at the Capital Markets update in February.
Operating costs for our Renewables business have decreased by around 50% compared to the third quarter last year, and we expect it to be down by 30% on an annual basis. And this is driven by less business development and reduced early phase work. On the NCS, we have stopped 2 early phase electrification projects that were not sufficiently profitable and this reduces costs now and CapEx going forward. By this, we are demonstrating that we can beat inflation and we can keep costs flat even if we are delivering strong production growth.
At Bacalhau, we started production from the first producer and ramp-up will continue through 2026. On the NCS, we had 7 commercial discoveries. And I want to highlight Aker BP's important discovery in the Yggdrasil area, where we have a material ownership position. And then let me also mention Smørbukk Midt . It was discovered and put in production during the third quarter, and we expect payback within 6 months.
As you know, we participated in Ørsted's rights issue. It was executed at a significant discount and overview of the underlying value in Ørsted supported our participation. The cash flow impact of around $900 million will be in the fourth quarter, impacting our net debt ratio by around 2 percentage points. Following this decision, we will now seek a more active role by nominating a candidate for the Board. We believe a closer industrial and strategic collaboration between Ørsted and Equinor can create value for shareholders in both companies.
Then to capital distribution. For the quarter, the Board approved an ordinary cash dividend of $0.37 per share and a fourth and final tranche of the share buyback program for 2025, of up to $1.266 billion, including the state's share. With this, total capital distribution for the year will be around $9 billion.
Safety remains our top priority. This quarter, we continue to have strong safety results. However, we had a tragic fatality at Mongstad and you know that safety work needs to continue with full force. Learnings from the accident will be implemented.
In the quarter, we produced 2,130,000 barrels per day. This is 7% up from last year, and we are on track to deliver on our guiding 4% production growth for the year. On the NCS, production was even stronger with 9% growth. Johan Castberg, a new field on stream of developments in Brent and strong performance at Johan Sverdrup are important contributors. NCS gas production was impacted by planned maintenance and the prolonged shutdown of Hammerfest LNG.
U.S. onshore gas production was up 40%, capturing higher prices and U.S. offshore was up 9% from last year. Internationally, outside the U.S., production was down due to the temporary stop at Peregrino and the divestment in Azerbaijan and Nigeria. We produced around 1.4 terawatt hours of power this quarter, mainly driven by the start-up of new turbines at Dogger Bank A and contributions from onshore renewable assets. As Empire Wind in New York, all 54 monopiles are now installed and the project execution is progressing well.
In October, Maersk informed us of an issue concerning its contract for the wind turbine installation vessel that is planned to be used at the Empire Wind in 2026. We are working to solve this quickly.
Now over to our financial results. Liquids prices were lower than the same quarter last year, while average gas prices were higher, particularly in the U.S. Adjusted operating income from E&P Norway totaled $5.6 billion before tax and $1.3 billion after tax. These results were impacted by production roles, but also increased depreciations due to new fields coming on stream.
Our E&P International results reflect lower production but also lower depreciation. Peregrino and our assets tied to Adura IJV are classified as held for sale. As such, we no longer depreciate that. Our E&P U.S. results are driven by increased production, but these results were impacted by a one-off effect related to decommissioning of the U.S. offshore Titan field of $268 million. It has very limited cash flow effect in the quarter, but we are now booking expected future operating costs related to this.
For M&P, we are changing our guiding and expect to deliver average adjusted operating income of around $400 million per quarter. The upside potential is larger than the downside risk to this guiding. The updated guiding is mainly due to changed market conditions. In addition, it reflects that we have previously divested some gas infrastructure. Our renewables results reflect high project activities, but also significantly lower business development and early phase costs.
In our reported financial -- yes, in the reported financial results, we have net impairments of $754 million. The main driver for these impairments is lower long-term oil price assumptions. Our E&P International business booked an impairment of $650 million tied to our assets being transferred to the Adura IJV due to lower price assumptions. More than half of the impairment is due to no depreciation on the assets held for sale.
In the U.S. offshore assets, we had impairments of $385 million, mainly due to lower price assumptions. In M&P, we have a reversal at Mongstad of $300 million due to higher expected refinery margins. This quarter, cash flow from operations was $9.1 billion, repaid to NCS tax installments totaling $3.9 billion. Next quarter, we will have 3 installments of around NOK 20 billion each. We distributed $5.6 billion to our shareholders, including the state's share of buybacks from last year of $4.3 billion. Organic CapEx was $3.4 billion, and our net cash flow was negative $3.6 billion. We have a solid financial position with more than $22 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Our net debt to capital employed ratio decreased to 12.2% this quarter. At current forward prices, we expect the net debt ratio at the end of the year to be in the lower end of the guided range, 15% to 30%, the same as we have said at earlier quarters.
Finally, we maintain our guiding from CMU in February, both in terms of production and CapEx as well as capital distribution. So thank you. And then over to you Bård for the Q&A session.
Thank you, Torgrim. [Operator Instructions] We have good list already. So let's get going. And first one on the list is Irene Himona from Bernstein.
2. Question Answer
So my first question is on the unit depreciation charge in Norway. It's up about 13% from Q2. Can we assume that is the new normal level going forward? And then my second question is on Ørsted. You obviously decided to participate in the rights issue and to turn from a passive to an active shareholder with a Board seat. Can you elaborate a little bit on what it is that you think Ørsted is perhaps not doing very well where your active participation may help them improve. And then what type of industrial cooperation do you envisage that would benefit both sides?
Thank you, Irene. So first of all, the unit depreciation charge on [ E&PN ] is up. So that is driven by new assets onstream this quarter and in particular, Johan Castberg and also smaller developments coming onstream as well. So these will sort of depreciate over time. So you should expect a gradual reduction going forward on that basis. So that's the first one.
The second one is related to Ørsted. Yes. So let me give you a little bit of further context around that. We participated in the rights issue. And clearly, that's sort of a recommitment to our shareholding, and we would like to use the opportunity to clarify more around how we think around the ownership position. And we do want to take a more active role as a shareholder with also Board seats in due time.
Then important for me to say that the offshore wind industry is leading through its first real downturn. So with a lot of challenges. And we have seen that with Ørsted and we have seen that in the share price development in Ørsted. So in times like that, consolidation is typically what happens. And we also do think that this industry needs consolidation. We do think that a closer collaboration industrially and strategically between Ørsted and ourselves will create shareholder value for our shareholders, I mean Equinor shareholders but also Ørsted's shareholders in a way.
And we do believe that's sort of the competence base that we have very well complement Ørsted and being part of the Board with a long-term industrial perspective in a company like this will benefit both parties. Then I do appreciate that there are uncertainties related to what this means. And let me be very clear that in the current environment, we are going to limit sort of capital commitments into Offshore Wind. It is an industry that is challenged. So the assets that we have in our own portfolio, we will continue to develop in Empire Wind, Dogger Bank and Baltic projects.
Beyond that, we will be very, very careful with further commitments into Offshore Wind. And the same goes to our holding in Ørsted. So the threshold to commit new significant capital is high for the time being. So I just want to leave that with you because I do appreciate that there are sort of questions to what might happen here.
The next question is from Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.
Just the first one on the MMP guidance. I wonder if you could just dive into a bit more detail around the change in factors there. And also, you've gone from a range of $400 million to $800 million to a single figure. And I was wondering if there's a sort of signal factor in there that either you see fewer opportunistic -- opportunities to trade or if you are just taking less risk given the environment is changing? And then just a follow up on the question before Ørsted, just trying to understand why you didn't consider a Board seat in the first place? Because I recall it just wasn't really part of the discussion at the time around the CMU. So just trying to get the understanding of -- obviously, the environment has changed, policy has changed, but has your investment thesis on that business investment changed?
All right. So thanks, Biraj. So first, on MMP guiding, yes. So we are changing the guiding to around $400 million on a quarterly basis. We're sort of -- we see that the risk is asymmetrical here. So more upside than risk to the downside. It is a change. We used to have $400 million to $800 million, as you might know. I think it's important to remind you what we had before the war in Ukraine, then the guiding was $250 million to $500 million as such. So what we see now is that the market has changed rather a lot.
On the gas side, in Europe, the situation has normalized with -- both on the absolute price levels and volatility and also then the volatility globally and sort of the market globally is driven to a large extent by political decisions that actually structures in the market, making it quite harder to trade around and position ourselves around. So the sort of market dynamics that drives this. In addition, sort of we had earlier divested gas transportation assets, that we are sort of -- we don't have anymore. So we take the opportunity to take that out as well. So -- and then why not a range? Because I mean you have seen that even if we had a broad range from $400 million to $800 million earlier, we tended to overshoot quite a bit, actually, even with the range. It just explains that opportunity might be very good, and it might sort of -- we don't want to limit it to -- have it limited by a range.
What we want to do is that on the invite to consensus that we send out a few weeks ahead of quarter, we will give an update related to MMP results and specialties to give you a little bit more guiding into it, but for -- on a regular basis on the longer term, I mean, around $400 million is a prudent number.
Last point on this that this is not Equinor specific. This is what sort of all of us are currently experiencing. So if you listen to our peers and if you listen to the trading houses, we all see that you need to work much harder for every dollar you can make in the trading environment for the time being. So yes, so that is that one.
The second question was related to Ørsted. We do believe that we have something to offer in the Board in Ørsted and it is particularly related to having a long-term industrial owner to -- that the company can rely on through cycles and then through developments. And as a company, we have extensive experience in managing cycles and thinking long term. In addition, we have clearly a lot of competencies related to project developments and the risk management as such. So we do you see that as something that can benefit both parties.
Next one on my list Teodor Sveen-Nilsen from Sparebank 1 Markets.
First one, just want to follow up on the Ørsted question recently asked here. I just want to know what has actually changed in what you can offer from the first time you acquired shares until now the recent share issue. So that is the first question. And second question that is on Bacalhau, congrats on first oil there. How should we think around the ramp-up pace to plateau?
Yes. So thanks Teodor, on your first question. Well, in the current situation, it was also important to signal that we were a supportive shareholder in what has sort of happened over the last few months. And then as part of that, being -- taking a Board seat is important. On Bacalhau, yes. So it's Bacalhau started on 15th of October. And it is probably the most complex development that we have done. It is at more than 2,000 meters of water depth and it is massive. So I'm very proud of reporting that it is started.
On your question on the ramp-up. I mean, there are 2 drillships on location currently. There will be 19 wells being drilled on Phase 1, 11 producers, but also injectors, both water injectors and gas injectors as such. So this will sort of gradually happen. This is not going to be a ramp-up like you have seen on Johan Castberg. So this is sort of continuous drilling and completion to 2025 and it will continue in 2026 as such. So this -- it's too early to say, give an exact date when it will be on plateau, but things are progressing well. Yes.
Next one is Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen.
I am going to start also on Ørsted. And it's, I guess, a bit tangentially related to what's going on. But as we think about potential outcomes one of the thoughts in the market is a formation of a joint venture between the 2 parties. And with that, there's a lot of speculation on cash, that would need to be contributed into the joint venture from Equinor standpoint.
So the question is really, as you look at your 3 offshore wind projects. How much equity capital have you spent in those projects thus far? And how much is left to be spent on those 3 projects?
And then my follow-up is on the global gas market. There's been maybe a surprising amount of LNG projects sanctioned year-to-date. You've seen China demand slowing down, some thoughts on Power of Siberia 2 coming online at some point next decade. Can you just talk about your outlook for the global gas market? And if it's shifted at all just given the developments that we've seen year-to-date in that market.
Thanks, Jason. On Ørsted, the potential outcome here is I don't want to speculate on that, and it's not natural to say much more on that now. But clearly, there are various alternatives. I can give a little bit insight in sort of what is it that the sort of -- we will be looking for in this. We will be looking for in sort of improving the free cash flow for Equinor, that is one driver.
The other one is are there ways where we can visualize or make clearer the underlying valuation within the offshore activity that we currently have, are there ways to do that? And the third one is that clearly, we we'll be very careful in -- with significant further capital commitments within Offshore Wind in the current environment. So those are the things which are sort of driving us. When it comes to the 3 projects and remaining equity injections, I can give you a little bit of insight into it. Dogger Bank is well underway and sort of production is gradually being started up. So there are sort of -- there is some more equity that will be injected. But clearly, project financing and the leverage of those projects is in sort of in the [ 70s ] as such.
Within Empire Wind, what you will see there is that we have a significant equity injection in 2026, which is close to $2 billion. The year after, we expect to receive investment tax credit for approximately the same amount. So Empire Wind over the next 2 years is pretty cash flow neutral before it is finalized. And then we have the Baltic 2 and 3 projects in Poland with a very high leverage, good projects. So it's fairly limited equity that is needed to fund those.
So I just want to leave with you that sort of clearly, there are 3 mega projects underway with limited remaining capital needs associated with them. Okay. Let's see here. That was a long answer, but it was an important question.
Then on sort of the global gas market. So first of all, I would like to say that in the short term, this winter, the market seems tighter than many actually things. We are on a storage level around 83%, which is 12 percentage points below last year. So if we see a cold winter, it can really have a significant impact on the market.
I would say if you see a normal winter, we might see prices where last year as such. So I would say in the short term, price is very much driven by weather and temperature as such. If you look a little bit further, and that's sort of where you have your question related to more LNG. And yes, there are more LNG coming. This is not new information. This is not a surprise. This is what the whole world has been sort of planning for, for quite a while.
And the question is, of course, how fast will this come on stream? And will there be delays? So clearly something to watch. We see still actually a quite healthy demand from Asia, Asia in totality around 3% growth per year, and that sort of will take up a significant part here. What else is to watch is actually U.S. gas prices. And U.S. gas prices has become recently much more a political topic internally, domestically in the U.S. because everyone sees that with all data center and AI will have a significant impact on power prices and power has to come from somewhere and natural gas clearly important so. So utility bills in the households is more and more becoming an election topic as such, and that might put limitations on exports of natural gas. So this is clearly an area we follow very closely. But there's no doubt there is significant amount of LNG coming.
And our gas $2 per MBTU, cost and transportation selling into an $11 market, we are very, very robust. And as one maybe last point to mention here that is sort of the sanctioning on Russian LNG -- potential 17 Bcm. That will lead the European markets as well. Thanks, Jason.
Next question is from Chris Kuplent from Bank of America.
Just some I guess, rather boring questions, Torgrim about detail. I wonder whether you can help us review what's happened in the 9 months on your net working capital, great results, I guess. And whether you can combine that review with an outlook where you think we're heading? And if I could ask you to do the same, particularly for your Norwegian business, I understand there's a lot of moving parts in terms of assets for sale outside of Norway, but Norway has seen a significant decline in the discount to Brent that you've been able to achieve in Q3. Again, I would love to have your review of that and outlook, if possible.
All right. Thanks, Chris. Yes. So working capital is clearly a very important part of what we manage and manage diligently. So this quarter, working capital is down by $1 billion, 3 points -- the total working capital now is $3.7 billion. So that's that is the reduction during the year, actually done by some $3 billion. So the question you had is what is sort of normal level and what have you. I mean, the reduction we have seen is very much linked to commodity prices and MNP-related reductions. So I won't sort of give any outlook on this, but I would say that given the structures in the markets, the volatility in the markets and the absolute price levels, it is sort of a fair level.
I mean, you remember during the energy crisis, we had a massive amount of working capital, and of course, earned a lot of money. But volatility and price levels are not there anymore. So -- but I would say it's a fair level, it's a fair level. Then the second question was sort of a discount to Brent. Yes, I mean, Johan Castberg came on stream during the summer. And Johan Castberg is able to achieve $5 premium to Brent as such, and that clearly has an impact to the discounted Brent overall on the shelf.
The next question is from Henri Patricot from UBS.
Two, please. The first one, I was wondering if you can give us an update on latest thinking on timing of the Peregrino disposal? And then secondly, on Johan Sverdrup, you mentioned here the field continues to produce at a very high level? Or are you thinking about the evolution of that going into 2026? And to what extent do we start to see a decline next year?
All right. Okay. First Peregrino. So Peregrino was shut in during the autumn. It came back on stream on October 17th as such and is currently producing more than 100,000 barrels per day. So we have transacted and we will divest out of our 60% ownership position in the assets, and that will be divested to Prio in Brazil.
So there are 2 legs of this transaction. 40% of the 60%, we expect to close during the fourth quarter and the remaining 20% in the first quarter next year. So the headline transaction value was $3.5 billion with an effective date of 1st of January '24, which is quite a while. So there will be a pro et contra settlement since then. So what you should expect is that on that consideration we will receive is a little bit below $3 billion, and that will be split into sort of 2/3 of that in the fourth quarter and 1/3 in the first quarter. Just want to leave with you that this is -- in Brazil is still very important to us.
The reason why we did it was twofold. It was attractive opportunity. And also, we are redeploying resources to Bacalhau and Ria in Brazil, sort of high grading the portfolio in Brazil. So the long-term commitment to Brazil is very much intact.
Then Johan Sverdrup. Yes. So Johan Sverdrup keeps delivering very well in the quarter, close to 100% regularity, which is a very good achievement in itself. We have worked the asset very, very hard to optimize production and recovery rates. Now we are looking at a recovery rate of 75%, in that asset. It was 65% when we sanctioned it and 65% is still a very, very high number. So what we are currently working on is multilateral wells, a retrofit existing well into multilateral wells, so we have successfully done that.
And then water management is very, very important because water management will continue to increase as we produce these wells. And that has also been done in a very good way. And then we sanctioned Phase 3 this summer with the common stream by end of 2027. So in 2025, we were able to maintain the production more or less on the same level as '23 and '24. But we have fast forwarded a lot of production. So this asset will start to decline.
So next year, you should expect lower production from Johan Sverdrup than in 2025. But you know what we're doing, this is at core of our competence base. So we will clearly work very hard on maintaining as high production as possible from that asset.
[Operator Instructions] And the next question is Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.
I wanted to come back to your comment about effectively restricting or being very capital efficient on Offshore Wind, given the acceleration in power demand we're seeing globally. I was just wondering, are there some other areas in the power markets where instead you see opportunities and you could look at redeploying some of the capital you're taking away from Offshore Wind at this time of low returns for those developments.
Okay. So, we do believe that there is value to be had within sort of the Power segment. And we have recently established a new business area called exactly Power as such. So what we clearly will be looking for are sort of opportunities that sort of builds on the portfolio we have and clearly -- and the customer base that we have. And we have a big presence related to our gas positions in Europe and in the U.S. So that's sort of the totality, the way we think about it.
I have to be very clear that sort of we have no intentions to significantly step up investments into this area. We are facing periods with lower prices. And for us, it will be very important to remain very capital disciplined in anything that we do. And everything we do need to have a significant profitability and returns before we commit any capital to it.
Next one, please one question from you to Peter Low from Rothschild & Redburn.
Perhaps a question on the cash tax paid in the quarter, which I think was maybe a bit lower than expected. So it looks like you paid 2 NCS installments of $3.9 billion, but the total cash tax paid in the cash flow statement was $3.8 billion. Were you getting refunds in other regions? Or can you perhaps explain that number a little bit?
Yes. Thanks, Peter. So a couple of things. So 2 tax installments in the second quarter, there will be 3 next quarter in Norway. So just be aware of that. It is a timing effect related to falling prices. So we are still paying taxes based on a higher price environment. So you just be aware of that. And also internationally, the reported tax is much higher than paid tax that goes particularly across the U.K. with the EPL and then sort of Rosebank investments being offset against tax and in the U.S. as well. So yes.
The next one is as Naisheng Cui from Barclays.
Just one follow-up on MMP guidance, please. I think you mentioned in your report that part of the reason you cut MMP guidance is because divestment of gas infrastructure assets. I wonder if you could isolate the impact on that place rather than the market condition change.
Okay, thanks. I can do that's $40 million per year. We did that sort of 1.5 years ago or something like that or 2 years ago. At that point in time, we delivered sort of guiding repeated in the quarter. So we didn't see the need to sort of strip that out. But when we now changed the guiding, we thought it was useful to mention it.
Just to be clear, Nash, the $40 million effect is on a quarterly basis. I think you might have said for year, but it's per quarter.
Yes, that's per quarter. Yes. Thanks, Bård.
Next one is Paul Redman from BNP Paribas.
And I might be a little bit early, but I just wanted to ask about how you're thinking about the distribution program for next year. We're going into 2026 with quite volatile view on oil prices. difficult view into gas prices, your debt came down this quarter, and I think you're guiding to a reversion of some of that into 4Q. So I just wanted to ask about how we should maybe think about a distribution program for 2026. And then just a confirmation on whether you're going to guide to that the 4Q results or at the Capital Markets Day later in the year?
Okay. Thanks. Thanks, Paul. Yes. All right. So first of all, there's lot of good reasons to be prepared for lower prices and we all know that. Last year, we took down investments by $8 billion for a few years and also cost down. We will continue to push on this to improve free cash flow in the current environment. So this is an ongoing thing. I just want you to be aware of that. So that is so.
Secondly, capital distribution will have a priority in our capital allocation model. Cash dividend -- the cash dividend, you should consider that as a bankable. I mean, that will come. On top of that, we will use share buyback and share buyback will be used on a regular basis. It is a natural part of our capital distribution framework as such. So -- and we clearly aim to be competitive when it comes to the overall capital distribution.
And to be precise on competitive, I leave with you a couple of things. We know that our peers are using a formulas related to cash flow. You should think about that type of sort of levels as sort of being competitive when it comes to ourselves. I think it's worth mentioning that sort of we have specialties around the Norwegian tax, so percentage points. We always should be a little bit lower for consistency as such.
Then your question on sort of what will happen next year as such. We will announce this on the fourth quarter results in February. There are a couple of specialties I would like to draw your attention to. And that is next year, we have a significant investments related to Empire Wind equity, that is around $2 billion. The year after, we will get it back through the investment tax credit. So when we consider capital distribution for 2026, we will look through that. We will take a 2-year perspective when we do consider our capital distribution for the year.
So -- and this is why it doesn't make sense to have -- that's why we are not sort of running with the formula because there might be years where we would like to lean on the balance sheet and there are other years where we clearly would like to build a balance sheet as well. But I think that is very important for me to say that those type of effects we will see through and we will see through that we are competitive when it comes to capital distribution.
You also mentioned the net debt, and I just want to use the opportunity to say a few words there. We are currently at 12%. We expect to be in the low end of the range by year-end. There are a couple of things I would like to bring with you -- to you. Point one, there are 3 tax installments there will be payment of the rights issue, $900 million in the quarter and there will also be part of the Peregrino transaction funds coming back.
But my point is we maintain the guiding for net debt to year-end, even if we have participated in the Ørsted right issue with $900 million, it is driven by strong underlying operations and cash flow and also improvement in net working capital as we talked about earlier. So a long answer, Paul, but an important question.
Next one on the list is Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley.
Well, only one for me. I wanted to ask about the impairment charge, because it's more of a question of just sort of trying to make sure I interpret this correctly. So the long-term oil price assumption has come down, but it's still $75 a barrel. But that has triggered $750 million of impairments, which sort of suggests that there were projects in your portfolio that had breakevens well above $75 a barrel. And I was wondering if that is the correct interpretation. If your projects have breakevens below $75, but you lower the long-term assumption, it wouldn't trigger an impairment, right? Am I interpreting this correctly?
Martijn, thank you for your question. Well, there are qualifications that needs to be made. So first of all, we have the assets on the U.K. side, which are impaired with $650 million. First of all, I would like to say, this has absolutely nothing to do with a transaction with Shell. This is an isolated effect, and it is driven by lower oil price assumption, as you said.
A very important driver for this is that these assets are held for sale in the book. So they haven't been depreciated for -- since the beginning of the year. If they had been depreciated on a normal basis, the impairment would have been significantly lower.
The second point on the U.K. portfolio is that part of that asset base is linked to the acquisition we did with Suncor and the Buzzard field, which sits in the balance sheet at sort of acquisition cost as such and that has also had an impact for that asset. There are 2 assets in the Gulf of Mexico also impaired. Those are also mainly driven by price. Those are assets run by -- operated by significant U.S. operators. As such, one of the assets has been a challenging asset operational wise for several years as such.
So I mean, it's -- yes, I mean, it is one asset in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico that has been a challenge. The remainder of the asset portfolio is very robust for impairments. So thanks, Martijn.
Next one is JPMorgan, Matt Lofting.
I just wanted to come back Empire Wind, Torgrim, I think you mentioned in your opening remarks that there was an availability issue that's emerged on in the installation vessel with Maersk. Could you just expand on what's happening there and sort of any risk that, that poses to the future development progress of Empire Wind into next year?
Thanks, Matt. So first of all, I think it's fair to say that Empire Wind has had a demanding year with a stop work order that has been reversed. And I just want to use the opportunity to say that the lost time has been catched up and we are back on track. And I must say that I'm very proud of what our organization has been able to do in a critical year like this. We are 55% complete. All monopiles are in the seabed. So on this issue, this is a dispute within Maersk and Seatrium, which is the yard in Singapore. The vessel is more or less completed and finished and Maersk has sort of canceled the contract as such. So we are close to the situation. We are working to either see to that this solution is resolved or looking for other opportunities. Important for me to say that this is a well-functioning market and there are other opportunities available in the market. So we will manage this -- we'll manage this, not risk-free naturally, but we will give you an update as this progress.
We move on to James Carmichael from Berenberg.
Just quickly on the U.K. and Rosebank. I was just wondering what the latest is on that approval process. And then I guess maybe just sort of general thoughts on the U.K. as we maybe get a bit closer to some clarity on the fiscal outlook here.
Okay. All right. Thanks, James. So on Rosebank, as you might may be aware of sort of the permit was sort of taken away due to that Scope 3 emission should have been taken care of in the award. So we have submitted our response recently to the regulator, and they turn around and put it into public constellation right away. That has started, and we expect the consultation to end at the 20th of November. There is no set date for the decision, but clearly, we work very closely with the ministries to get this moving as quickly as possible as such.
The second part of your question, what was that, James, about fiscal outlook in the U.K?
Yes. I guess just general thoughts on the U.K., obviously, some uncertainty on the fiscal outlook, we've got some clarity there soon. Yes, just some context around that.
I think it's fair to say that there has been repeatedly tax changes on the U.K. side over years. This is nothing that we appreciate and clearly would advocate for strong and stable fiscal framework to create a basis for investing as such. Yes.
Kim Fustier from HSBC is next on my list.
I noticed that one of your Norwegian competitors has recently expressed some concerns that there may not be enough projects on the NCS within a year or 2 to sustain a healthy domestic supply chain. Obviously, you're also moving away from big greenfield projects to smaller brownfields. So it's kind of an industry-wide issue. Just interested in hearing your views on sort of the outlook for the NCS supply chain and cost inflation.
All right. Thanks Kim. We are currently having a period with very high activity. A bit of that is driven by the tax incentive program put in place during COVID as such and many of these projects are soon coming into production. So it is natural that there will be a lower activity past that asset. So I think our job as a company is to adapt to that and adjust. I think it's -- I just want to use the opportunity to talk about a project that we have established called NCS 2035. And this links very much to what we said at the Capital Markets Day in the winter, maintaining production level on the NCS all the way to 2035.
That future will contain more but smaller discoveries. It will take quicker developments, and we have to operate at lower costs. So for instance, we will drill 30 exploration wells per year and that is more than we do currently. And we will put forward 6 to 8 subsea developments per year, which is also more than what we have done currently. So by what we are doing, clearly, we will be a significant contributor to maintaining a high activity level on the Norwegian Continental Shelf and also the industry in Norway. So very optimistic about what we can achieve through different way of working and different way of working with suppliers.
We are fast approaching the hour, but let's take one final question, and that is you Steffen Evjen from DNB.
So a quick one. Just remind me on the tax credit in the U.S. What's the milestone you have to get that credit paid? Is that first power or COD on the project?
Yes. Yes, it is production start, that is sort of the criteria, and it is first power. That is sort of the ultimate. So that is what we plan for in 2027.
Thank you very much. We are now at the hour. I would like to thank you all for calling in and for your questions. As always, the Investor Relations team remain available. So if there's any outstanding questions, please give us a call, and we will do our best to help you. Thank you very much, and have a good rest of the day.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. You may now disconnect. Thank you, and have a great day.
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Equinor — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Equinor — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Starkes operatives Quartal mit Produktion +7% und hohem Cashflow, zugleich Impairments und vorsichtigere Offshore‑Wind‑Kapitalallokation.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Produktion: 2,13 Mio. bbl/d (+7% YoY), NCS +9%; on track für Jahresziel ≈+4%.
- Adj. Betriebsergebnis: $6,2 Mrd. vor Steuern (bereinigtes Betriebsergebnis).
- Ergebnis: Konzern‑Nettoergebnis -$0,2 Mrd. (Einmaleffekte, Finanzposten).
- Cashflow: Q3 operativer Cashflow $9,1 Mrd.; YTD nach Steuern $14,7 Mrd.; Barmittel >$22 Mrd.
- Kapital & Ausschüttung: Dividende $0,37/Share; Buyback‑Tranche bis $1,266 Mrd.; Gesamtverteilung ~ $9 Mrd. Jahresbasis.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Ørsted‑Strategie: Teilnahme an der Kapitalerhöhung (~$900 Mio. in Q4) und Wechsel zu aktivem Aktionär mit Board‑Ambition; Ziel: industrielle Kooperation, aber sehr zurückhaltig bei neuen Offshore‑Wind‑Commitments.
- Kostendisziplin: Operative Kosten stabil YTD vs. Vorjahr; Erneuerbare: Opex Q3 -50% vs. Vorjahr, Ziel -30% p.a.; zwei unrentable Früh‑Elektrifizierungsprojekte gestoppt.
- Portfolio‑fokus: Bacalhau gestartet (Phase‑Ramp‑up durch 2026), Peregrino‑Verkauf in Abschlussphasen; Fokus auf schnelle, kleinere NCS‑Entwicklungen (NCS2035).
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- M&P‑Guidance: Neuer Richtwert ~ $400 Mio. bereinigtes Betriebsergebnis pro Quartal (mehr Upside als Downside).
- Bilanz & Net Debt: Net Debt/Capital Employed 12,2% (Q3); erwartet Jahr‑Ende am unteren Ende der 15–30% Guidance; Ørsted‑Zahlung ~ $900 Mio. erhöht Q4‑Nettoverschuldung um ~2pp.
- CapEx & Projekte: Organisches CapEx Q3 $3,4 Mrd.; Empire Wind: ~ $2 Mrd. Equity 2026, Investment Tax Credit erwartet 2027 (wirkt 2‑Jahres‑perspektivisch).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Ørsted‑Optionen: Umfangreiche Fragen zu möglichen JV/Consolidation‑Szenarien; Management betont keine weitreichenden Kapitalzusagen, Board‑Sitz zur Wertschöpfung und Stabilität.
- MMP/Märkte: MMP‑Reduktion reflektiert normalisierte Gasmärkte, geringere Volatilität und frühere Veräußerung von Gas‑Infrastruktur (~$40 Mio./Quartal Effekt).
- Projekt‑Risiken: Bacalhau Ramp‑up läuft; Empire Wind: Installationsschiff‑Problem bei Maersk beobachtet, Ersatzoptionen vorhanden; Peregrino‑Close in Q4/Q1 erwartet (Nettoeinnahme etwas < $3 Mrd.).
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Operative Stärke, Produktionswachstum und hoher Cashflow stützen dividendenorientierte Kapitalverteilung; Risiken bleiben (Impainments, Ölpreisannahmen, Offshore‑Wind‑Markt). Anleger sollten Ørsted‑Engagement und Empire Wind‑Ausführung sowie Preisannahmen/Impairments genau beobachten.
Equinor — Special Call - Equinor ASA
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to Equinor's 2025 Global Supplier Day. My name is Juliet Tibaijuka.
My name is [ Tom Maeston ]. Together, we will be your moderators for today. Every year on Supplier Day, Equinor welcome suppliers and interested stakeholders to gather and discuss relevant topics in the industry. This is for existing suppliers and for future suppliers. Today, we are streaming live from Offshore Technology Days in Stavanger, which means we have people attending also virtually. However, before we proceed, some practicalities for those present at this venue.
In an emergency, an alarm will be activated or a spoken warning will be given on the speakers. Please follow the instructions and leave the premises. Emergency exits are marked with green exit signs. The assembly point, if an emergency should occur, is in front of the main entrance of the Stavanger forum, M1 on the screen. First aid equipment and the defibrillator are located at the reception of the Stavanger Forum. There are no planned fire drills nor emergency evacuation tests. So if we do hear an alarm, we should evacuate. Smoking is only permitted outdoors.
The theme of this year's Equinor Global Supplier Day is Reimagining Industry Collaboration. Over the next hour, we'll discuss the challenges and opportunities ahead and explore how we can address them together through cooperation with both our current and future suppliers. To discuss this topic, we are joined today by our Chief Procurement Officer, Mette Ottøy; our Senior Vice President for Project, Trond Bokn; and our Senior Vice President for Renewables, Anders Hangeland.
Before welcoming our speakers to stage, we will also have a safety moment. Once the presentations are concluded, we will open the floor for a question-and-answer session for 10 minutes. [Operator Instructions].
We will now proceed with the safety moment. Over to you, Tom.
Thank you, Juliet. Every significant meeting needs a safety moment. This year, we rolled out an updated version of our I am safety road map. This road map is our guide for achieving zero harm and to prevent major accidents. At Equinor, we believe that no one should be injured while working with us. While incidents may occur, this road map will help us minimize the serious consequences and ensure we look for continuous improvement. It also lays the foundation for collaboration with suppliers, partners and stakeholders. The road map has 4 pillars, and they're all interconnected. Proactive leadership and culture. We need to strengthen safety culture from proactive leadership. We need to promote a culture for psychological safety. We need to create collaboration with clarity, trust, openness and engagement.
Safety and design. We all know that knowledge is essential. It's crucial to understand the risk activities and safety requirements, and we need proactive risk and barrier management. We need senior management engagement for safety and design before selecting our concept. Third pillar, learning from normal work and incidents. Our ability to improve depends on our ability to learn. There is always room for improvement. We need structured learning from normal work and we need strengthened learning from incidents.
The last pillar is called collaboration and partnership. This is essential to build safety capacity and competence. It's vital to continuously improve safety by foster a culture of shared responsibility. So what does this mean for Equinor and for you as a supplier. We do not compete on safety. Our collective aim is to raise the bar for safety. We measure progress by shared achievements. We support supplier-led safety work. We will actively collaborate with you to manage and improve safety measures. We believe that you know the contacts best, and you should be leading the safety work with our support. The category in Equinor that I represent is subsea power cables. We have long-term collaboration with key supplier for execution of contracts set in fair competition. These contracts that run for multiple years, and they include fabrication of cables and installation of cables with specialized vessels over long offshore campaigns. Equinor invites these suppliers to our Annual Marine Safety and Sustainability Days. Here, they will meet our top tier suppliers for marine operation and learn from the best safety performance.
Over the years, this collaboration has resulted in improved risk management for our operation within Power Cables. We have also improved how lessons learned are identified, shared and implemented for the next project. Do we all remember COVID? It's not that long ago really. We'll learn some new phrases, cohorts, social distancing, and we were exposed to travel restriction. And now we are all experts in teams. We use it every day. During COVID, we performed load-out and installation of cables, including pulling to producing assets. The one team approach ensured good safety performance with collaboration, with clarity, trust, openness and engagement, referencing Pillar #1.
This is also reflected in the supply management statement, "Equinor actively supports our safety journey by sharing best practices, setting high expectations and encouraging continuous improvement across our operations."
Now I would like to mention a recent incident. On September 17, this year, we lost a dear colleague at the refinery at Mongstad on the West Coast of Norway. A young man working for a supplier tragically lost his life while working for Equinor. The accident occurred during a lifting operation as part of a turnaround at the plant. On behalf of Equinor, I would like to express my deepest condolences to the family, friends and colleagues who have lost a loved one.
This is a brutal reminder, we must never let our guard down when it comes to safety, promoting safety in our work. Safety is our #1 priority. We are all responsible for integrating safety and security into everything we do to ensure that people who work for us are safe. It requires our continuous efforts and good cooperation with you, our suppliers.
So on that note, thank you very much for your attention. It's now time to move on with the program.
The first speaker today is our Chief Procurement Officer, Mette Halvorsen Ottøy. Please join me in welcoming Mette to the stage.
Good afternoon, everyone. It's great to be here with all of you, and it was really good to have the opportunity to greet many of you as you entered this event. I'm looking forward to spending the next hours with my dear colleagues, Juliet, Tom, Anders and Trond and also with all of you, and we are going to have a networking session afterwards, and I hope that many of you are planning to stay behind and engage with many of the Equinor colleagues as such.
Then, thank you, Tom, for your safety moment. Our I am Safety road map is probably the most important tool we have to continue to see improve on safety. And looking back, we have, together with our suppliers, significantly improved on safety over the years. Even so there is no room for complacency as long as we still experience serious accidents as the recent fatality at Mongstad. So I think that's a strong reminder that we just have to keep up the good work together with you as partners.
So where to start? I think a good place to start is to start with the Equinor strategy. And the strategy stays firm. It gives direction in a world which is shifting fast and there is a lot of uncertainty and of course, also market volatility. And in this, it really guides us in how to adopt and also how to capture value. And one of the most important contributions we can do as a company is to make sure that we address and work on reducing our own emissions. And we have kept our target, our goal to reduce our emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to 2015. And also, in terms of the energy transition, it is ongoing, but I think we have to realize that the pace is somewhat different. So we have adjusted our carbon net intensity reduction, but still working on our portfolio within renewables and low-carbon solutions, and also on our own emissions is going to be important moving forward as well.
And as a company, we are evolving, coming from being an oil and gas company moving into becoming a broader energy company as such. So the Equinor strategy stays firm: always safe, high-value, low carbon.
Today, I'm going to address the opportunities on the Norwegian continental shelf, but it's hard for me not to mention that this is a great day for everyone that has worked on Bacalhau for a long, long time. Yesterday, we came on stream. And now, Bacalhau is there to actually contribute to our cash flow for decades to come. And I think that's a great milestone. And I'm sure Trond is going to mention that later as well.
Even so, today, we will focus on the opportunities and the challenges on the Norwegian continental shelf. First of all, we, as Equinor, we have communicated that we want to maintain the production from the Norwegian continental shelf at 1.2 million barrels a day up until 2035. And that comes with a lot of activities. We will invest annually over the next decade, USD 6 billion to USD 7 billion, which is a lot of project and activities. And Anders and Trond, they are going to talk about the projects and the project portfolio and how that is going to evolve over the years to come. But I just want to mention that it all starts with exploration and drilling. And what we are looking at over the next 10 years or so is to drill 250 exploration wells, 600 increased recovery production wells, 3,000 interventions, 200 wells that has to be plugged. It's a lot of activities. And 80% of the work done within drilling and well is done by our suppliers.
So a lot of opportunities if we get it right. And of course, if we do not explore and find, then there will be no future. So that's an important part we are going to address moving forward. And then, of course, looking at the NCS, which is getting more mature, operations and maintenance is going to be important. Just to give you a few examples, operations, it's going to be important to make sure that we keep our installations running efficiently not least because that is how we extend production, but also because that's a very important way to reduce emissions. And just to mention a few activities linked to operations, logistics, for instance, by helicopters and vessels, catering, that's another one. Maintenance, of course, is going to be important as well. And yes, I could mention a lot of different disciplines and categories. But just to mention a few, equipment, consumables, insulation and scaffolding and also surface treatment.
Adding on to this, modifications. A lot of the projects we are going to work on going forward will also imply modifications on our installations. We are talking about 2,500 modifications, adding on to that 3,000 modifications from our onshore facilities. And then finally, Trond is going to talk about the subsea tiebacks. The opportunities are there, 75 subsea tiebacks, but it will require to capture all these opportunities. It will require a lot from all of us, not least from us as an operator, but also how we call our [indiscernible] together. Thank you.
Thank you, Mette, for sharing your insight and reflection on these important topics. Before we move on, I would like to remind you once again about the question-and-answer session and for you to send your questions through Slido. And next, I will invite Trond Bokn, our Senior Vice President for Project; and Anders Hangeland, Senior Vice President within Renewables to the stage to talk about our project portfolio. Thank you.
I grew up listening to YouTube and now they have a song called, It's a Beautiful Day. And this is extremely well to today. First of all and foremost, it's because we are able to see so many of you here, industry friends coming together to listen to us and to collaborate. And secondly, of course, because of the Bacalhau that started up. Some of us have been working a real long time to realize. And there are many of the suppliers in the room that has participated into the Bacalhau. So that's -- it's a beautiful day. And then I just wanted to touch upon safety as well. From an Equinor perspective, it will not be sort of a successful year when it comes to safety performance because of the remainder or sort of the tragic incident at Mongstad.
Having said that, we are still together with you guys working really hard and well on safety performance. If you look at the projects, we have -- the last 12 months, on average, we have 27,000 people working for Equinor, meaning through you, but for our projects every day. And we've had 9 lost time injuries sort of with 27,000 people working. And that is the best safety results ever for projects. So I would like to start by acknowledging what you have been doing and working hard on. But still, the frequency just tells us that the risk is reduced, but we still see serious incidents. So we still have to improve even further on it. But again, starting and acknowledgment and then Tom in your safety moment, you said that, okay, we will be working with and through the suppliers. Supplier-led safety is something we believe in, and we do see the results through the collaboration.
So if we get to normally the most popular slide, by the way, this is sort of the project portfolio. And if I look at the sanctioned projects, most of these are projects that many of you have heard before, many of you are engaged directly in. What we see is that we have for, as an example, 3 major greenfield development projects. As I said, we started up Bacalhau yesterday, officially announced today, and we started up Johan Castberg earlier this year. So it's a fantastic year for projects starting up 2 FPSOs. But we're also working on [indiscernible] and Rosebank midst of execution as to now. We have a relatively long list of subsea tieback projects being worked and a significant number of electrification, large brownfield projects. This is not sort of the 3,000 modifications we're talking about, but these are sort of significant size projects. And then we do work low-carbon solutions. And for me, it was really good to see that we were able to sanction Northern Lights Phase 2 because that is pointing forward. There's still live -- the transformation -- the energy transformation is still live. We do have customers that are willing to pay for us -- to pay us to take care of their CO2. So we are moving forward with the energy transition, but at a lower pace than we anticipated some time ago. And that's why when we talk about the strategy, we have some flexibility and the timing. Because you guys, our partners, our suppliers, you're used to, of course, the customers are being right. And now we also have the customers, they are right on the pace. Our customers, they decide the pace on when it's right to invest in blue hydrogen or CCS opportunities.
So if you look at the unsanctioned portfolio and starting on the low-carbon side, yes, we still have a set of opportunities that are being worked and matured. But again, there's no point in us first sort of investing in it unless we have clarity and a line of sight towards customer willing to pay for it. And that also takes political support. And again, this list looked a bit longer a week ago when we looked at the electrification project portfolio, the unsanctioned one. It's -- for those of you following the Norwegian politics, it's interesting, could be a word to sort of follow the debate. But we are dependent on support to be able to continue on this journey on the electrification. But we still have a project that will lower the CO2 footprint.
If we do these projects, we are at 45% reduction on Equinor's CO2 emission compared to the baseline that we have established. We had initially an ambition of 50%. But again, now we have agreed not to pursue 2 of the remaining ones on electrification. So my perspective, if you look at the lower part of the unsanctioned or the pre-sanctioned project is that energy Equinor projects are extremely political. So we are politics. And we depend on sort of support, we depend on willingness to invest and to invest in our customers in order to realize these projects. And then the question we normally get most often is what's up with Wisting and Wisting is still alive as a reshape project. We are working it. We have simplified it significantly, and we are working towards a concept select this autumn. And we have Bay du Nord projects, also a greenfield development project in Canada. It's slightly ahead of Wisting. We have selected our partners, meaning the [indiscernible] and BWO for, respectively, the SURF and the FPSO side. So suppliers targeting Bay du Nord sort of also need to go through these partners of ours.
And then Mette has placed a teaser already on the subsea tiebacks. We have this sort of the ones that has passed the first major decision yet in Equinor. So these are being worked coming towards the market relatively soon. On top of that, it's the 75 subsea tieback projects in the next 10 years. It means 6, 7 subsea tieback projects every year, if we do it right. Because we have names on all these opportunities. Some of them are prospects that need to be drilled successfully. Some of them are projects that need to be improved to get it robust enough towards low commodity prices. So if we do it right, the future is bright, but it also takes a different approach. So that's why we talk about sort of renewal -- renew the energy and the collaboration with suppliers.
We focus a lot on sort of the marginal mindset. These subsea tieback projects sort of are the bread and butter of project development in the NCS going forward. But we cannot copy and do exactly what we've done before because they are not big enough. They will not be sanctioned. So we need to reduce the cost, and we do that not just by pointing and chasing your margins. And if I point now, we can count a number of fingers. One is pointing upwards. I don't know where that is pointing, but the 3 other fingers is pointing towards me or to Equinor. And we work a lot internally on sort of what it takes from our side to reduce the cost and the competitiveness. This is about the technical requirements. This is about our ability to standardize, to reuse, to build on industry specifications.
As we said, we believe in supplier-led safety, but we also believe to a larger degree than before on supplier lead specifications. One of the reasons being that if you look at the future portfolio, it has the new projects coming on stream. They have a lot sort of shorter lifetime. We're going to produce maybe in 3 to 5 years. And it doesn't make sense to use the same specifications that for Johan Sverdrup to provide sort of the obvious example. So we are looking into what we can do. We are chasing a culture program in Equinor call Heroes at the Margin. So the Heroes of Tomorrow, slogan of Equinor, by the way, is the Heroes of the Margin. So how do we work that and it's sort of about demystifying it. And then we work the requirements, the specifications, and I discussed with some of you at explaining in Stavanger early this year. And then I actually got a question that do you allow your engineers to be unfaithful to the TRs? And I said, yes, yes, that's -- we do. I empower, and we empower our engineers together with the suppliers to be unfaithful to the TRs. And then there was a heading afterwards, Equinor allows the engineers to be unfaithful. I needed to take that back home and explain it a bit, but it's back to the fingers pointing on us. And we need your help to guide us where are the cost drivers, where can we together increase the competitiveness because we really need to bring down the cost, but still make a sustainable living for all the suppliers. So that is the main journey that we are embarking upon now to really make it a success and to be able to deliver on the ambition that sort of takes the 75 subsea tieback projects. So I think that's my introduction, Anders.
Thank you, Trond. And I think what you described in terms of the tieback portfolio fairly well reflects also what we're up against in renewables. I'm going to talk about costs. I'm going to talk about margins. I'm going to talk about collaboration, and it sounds like I'm stealing all of those for you, Trond. So let's get to it. We've achieved a lot in renewables over the last couple of years and also together with many of you here today. So I think that's a good achievement. But first and foremost, it's good to see you again. We've been busy since the last year, we had our Supplier Day. We are currently constructing 3 of our biggest renewable projects, offshore wind projects ever at the same time, and many of you here today are involved.
Once done, these projects will provide about 8 million homes with green power. And I think that is what really gets me up in the morning and gets a lot of energy out of. The photo on the screen and a bit what you saw in the video earlier is from our monopile installation on Empire Wind in the U.S., which we completed last week on schedule, even though we experienced a stop work order back in May. So I think that is a fantastic achievement from the Empire Wind team and worthy of a bit of applause.
Thank you. Now constructing 3 mega projects at the same time is not an easy thing to do. And it's really about hard work, and that brings us back to our #1 priority, which is safety. And on this end, we are simply not good enough. As an industry, we are lagging behind the oil and gas industry, and we are roughly experiencing twice as many incidents and near misses as we see within oil and gas, and that is simply not good enough. So within the construction portfolio, within renewables, we are below our targets, and this cannot continue, and we definitely need your help to turn the trend.
Within Equinor Renewables, we have roughly 15 million hours of work for 2025. 80% of that is work through you guys on supplier yard sites and with supplier employees. So we are fully dependent on your commitment to make this happen. If we look at the portfolio, what we see is dropped objects, people being in the line of fire and energy isolation related incidents, which are causing the near misses and the accidents. I think we all know that this can be prevented, but requires relentless focus every day, and that's what I want to see from you as well. So I'm curious in terms of your proposal and proposals in terms of how we can turn this and basically make renewables at least on par with oil and gas.
Then a bit on the portfolio and the way forward. As I mentioned, Empire Wind is back on track. We are roughly 50% done with the project. And then we have Baltyk 2 and 3 in Poland, roughly 20% on schedule. Dogger Bank in the U.K. has been a bit delayed on Dogger Bank A, but we're quickly catching up. And we have made significant progress on that project over the last year. We also have just installed the electrical infrastructure on all 3 phases on time. So that's a good achievement.
We're obviously also looking at the next-generation portfolio. And I think some of the pressure points that Trond talked about, we're definitely seeing also within renewables. So a couple of examples. In Korea, we are developing the world's largest floating offshore wind project, together with the Korean authorities, which we are assessing, but obviously a commercially challenging project. In Poland, we are progressing the Baltyk 1 project, which is sort of on the back end of Baltyk 2 and 3, a bit of a convoluted way of saying that 2 and 3 comes before 1, but that's how it's been named, but this is a solid market for offshore wind.
In the U.K., we are progressing the extension of the Sheringham Shoal and the Dudgeon offshore wind farm to operational wind farms that we have in our portfolio. And we're also developing the smartly named Dogger Bank Phase D on the back of A, B and C. And then we've also been successful in a lease auction in the Celtic Sea.
Here in Norway, you might have seen that we have delivered an application for [indiscernible] and look forward to the progression of that. None of these projects are easy. But we do see some positive signs in the market in terms of capacity, but I think it's fair to say that every stone needs to be turned to make these projects profitable and at the end of the day investable. And I think across renewables, we see that the levelized cost of energy is now higher than the base electricity price, and hence, contract for difference of support regimes are needed by various governments, and we see that particularly in Northwestern Europe, that trend is coming. But it's also a bit back to Trond's point that the end customer in the end is facilitating a lot of the progress on this projects.
Then a bit on strategy. And we are taking a more integrated approach within Equinor on power. Looking ahead, the world's energy consumption is quickly increasing and that is dominated. The largest increase is coming through the Power segment. The growth in renewables, while rapid, also comes with the challenge of intermittency. And we see that to solve this, we need more flexible generation assets, whether that is thermal, hydro, batteries, et cetera. So to ensure that we are approaching this from a listed perspective, we're now gathering all power assets and teams within Equinor within what we will call the Power segment, which is becoming effective in 2 weeks' time.
Our ambition is still to grow significantly within this space, and it's obviously something that we'll come back to in future [indiscernible]. Through all of this, there's a couple of common themes that I wanted to leave you with and that we are focusing on. And they are listed on the bottom on the slide. First and foremost, safety within renewables must improve. I have talked about this. Our focus is to ensure that everyone comes home safe every day. We have to radically simplify the way we mature and build power plants for offshore wind farms. Standardization simplification is critical, and I think just as critical as we talked about in terms of tieback projects. And this goes both in the early phase when we are assessing the opportunities and definitely also in the project development up until FID.
We basically have to cut or bend the cost curve that we've seen and basically make projects sanctionable and then deliver as promised. And this is why we call it cost and execution leadership. I know that nothing of this is possible without the support of all of you. So I need all of your help to make this possible. Thank you for your attention.
You know, Anders, you need to work on the naming in subsea tieback. I just heard that [indiscernible] was the name of our prospects.
Let's see.
Thank you, Anders and Trond, for your good presentation. I think a lot of people saw some interesting topics. I may generate some questions later on. And Tom, you mentioned you too a beautiful day with your success in Brazil. I would have voted for Europe and the final countdown, but maybe another day. So before we move to the Q&A session, we would like to wrap up this part of the session by inviting Mette back on stage.
So you have probably got it now. There's a lot of opportunities, but it will require a lot from all of us to unlock these opportunities as such. Going back to what I said about our strategy at the beginning, we are working from being an oil and gas company into a broader energy company, but still oil and gas is going to be with us for decades, and it's going to be extremely important for us to make sure that we have the capabilities to develop new value chains as well. And the NCS is going to be at the core of our business.
So how does it look then, the Norwegian continental shelf, looking forward? Well, for sure, it will be different from the past. And I think that's something we all have to acknowledge. Looking back, looking at the discoveries we had back in the '80s, 170 million barrels on the average per discovery. The last 10 years, it has been 10 million barrels per discovery. And looking ahead, it might be even smaller. And adding on to that is a mature area. And also, the reservoirs are going to be more complex. We are faced with tighter reservoirs, higher pressure, higher temperature and more marginal discoveries. That says a lot about both income and also that this is going to be challenging in terms of costs and how we work forward -- work moving forward. And if you look at what the Norwegian offshore director would say about the production profiles, well, we are heading towards decline, but there is a huge difference between these 3 curves, purple, green, red.
And if you remember back to what I said about all the activities that we are planning for, that is something between the green and the purple, and that's what we would really like to unlock together with all of you. But I think you also got that message from Anders and Trond. The cost level we are faced with these days is not sustainable in terms of actually unlocking these opportunities. And it's not like pointing to the suppliers and everybody else. I mean, Trond mentioned that if you point like this, there is 1 that way and 3 that way and 1 up. We have to pray for something probably as well. And you know, cost and efficiency and productivity, what we have experienced over the last years, and it's an industry trend, is not where we have to -- where we can actually continue. We have to break the curve. Just to give you one specific example. Since 2019, our subsea and marine installation costs have gone up by 90%. And yes, it has been impacted by higher material costs. It has been impacted by inflation, interest rate, wages. But it's also a lot about productivity and it's a lot about high activity levels that has pushed the prices up. And we need to do something about that together.
And when I say productivity, it's also internally, it's not only pointing to U.S. suppliers, and that's why we are also internally addressing this and working on how we can actually improve on end-to-end deliveries and how we work more efficiently as the portfolio is changing a lot over the next years. So this is not something we can solve on our own. It's something we have to solve together. And for us, as Equinor, I think the important stakeholders that we are willing to continue working with the suppliers, authorities and also the partners. And if we start with the suppliers, you, I would really, really like to invite you to be part of this improvement journey moving forward. We need to develop more competitive solutions together, and that's about technology, innovation. It's about the technical solutions and the technical requirements. I mean, there might be other solutions for a project, which is going to produce for a few years a marginal tieback to an existing infrastructure compared to how we had to deal with requirements when we developed Johan Sverdrup, for instance. It's very different.
Simplifications, that's about more simple solutions, and it's also a lot about how we work to increase productivity together, and that's all about people and competence. And as I said, it's not only on the supplier side, it's also internally that we develop the right kind of competence in terms of what we are going to solve for over the next years. And then partners, economy of scale, thinking, standardization across the projects, reuse, that's relevant, I mean, both for U.S. suppliers, but also across the licenses that we can work together and that we have a portfolio approach that is going to be more and more important. And then also, of course, we have the infrastructure. It's there, how to utilize this, how to use our existing installations in a more efficient way. And that's also where productivity is a really, really important parameter.
And then, in the end, with the authorities, I mean, one of the really, I would say, significant strengths with the NCS over the years has been the stable frame conditions, how it has been in terms of us knowing what frame conditions we have to relate to when we want to make a decision to have a profitable and sanctionable project.
Moving forward, it might be that we will have to have other frame conditions, but I think it's also important that we have stable frame conditions and that we have attractive terms. And as Trond mentioned, we feel that we are politics these days because there's a lot of back and forth and debates around what we can do and what we cannot do. And to succeed together and to make sure that we prosper as an industry, we need help from the authorities as well. And that's why we have called this, how to reimagine industry collaboration. Thank you.
We will now start with the question-and-answer session. So would you like to please come up on stage. So Tom, what have you got on Slido.
Some great questions. Are you ready?
We are ready.
Some of you are asking very specific questions on inspection services, welding and heat exchangers. We can't cover all of them from the stage, but please talk to the Equinor category managers outside afterwards.
And that's a really good advice because we have with us a lot of good and competent people. So please stay behind and take part in the networking session.
And red buttons is a signal for, yes.
Strong signal.
But if you have detailed questions, it's probably better to ask others than the 3 of us, if it's really detailed.
You can try. So the first question of today goes to you, Mette. Claire is asking about Equinor's focus on sustainability and life cycle optimization. How can suppliers support these goals, for example, through digitalization and on-demand production of spare parts?
It's a great question. And if you listen carefully, I said something about reuse of equipment, and that's one of our focus areas moving forward, and that's something we have to do together with the suppliers. And I think -- I mean, there is a lot of things I could mention, but I would like to mention the way we have developed 3D printing and how we work with that. I think that's a great example of how we can actually gain some climate points in terms of our business. I don't know if you want to add on anything from your side.
Just on 3D printing, I think there's really an untapped potential there. And this is also linked to the on-demand part of the question because we can really move fast, and I can also lower the inventory if we sort of get the opportunities to do 3D printing. And then AI, I think there's also -- we're still -- most of us fumbling our way into the language parts of the AI. But I honestly believe there is really a good potential there as well to both sort of increase the collaboration, but also the productivity and efficiency.
Thank you. So the next question is for you, Trond. How sensitive is Equinor's investment plan until 2035 on the oil price?
Yes. I think some of the challenges of the operating companies has been that we go sort of together. We sort of create the same cycle as on. And that is, of course, caused by the commodity prices. We are -- as all companies, we are, to some degree, limited by our cash flow. We have promised the dividend. We have promised buyback regimes. And then, of course, if we -- the income is reduced significantly, we either reduce dividend, buyback or investments. So it is linked.
Having said it, we have communicated at the highest level in the company that we will have stable investment frames and Mette referred to them on the NCS, $6 billion to $7 billion every year. So we, as Equinor, will try to sort of remain a stable activity level. And I really understand very well how important that is for the supplier industry that we sort of avoid the heaviest cycles. But of course, it's not that we are immune to it as such. But again, an ambition to continued stable investments on the NCS.
Okay. Anders, the next question is for you. It's a question from the audience about your plans within energy storage. Are you only going to look at batteries, or are you looking at other technologies as well, like thermal storage?
Yes, I think it's fair to say that a bit like I mentioned, the more renewables growth there is, the more intermittent production is an issue. And I guess we are most advanced on batteries at the moment, particularly through our onshore platform companies. We just successfully installed 1 new battery in Denmark lately. But I think, obviously, we are technology agnostic, but this is very much back to the levelized cost of energy and what makes sense in the specific markets. And I don't have a sort of a -- is it this or that type strategy on this, but obviously it needs to make sense. And then we see that the different technologies have matured in a different pace. And I think batteries so far is one of the most mature ones.
And here is a question from a potential supplier. How can we best support Equinor in the early phase of your projects, for example, to make use of innovative delivery models and digital tools? Perhaps you want to start, Trond?
Just sort of starting off with an example. When we recently sanctioned Johan Sverdrup Phase 3, it's a bit smaller than the other phases, but it's a subsea tieback. And then we used a supplier to help us on optimizing the well path and the location of the subsea templates competing towards our engineers and the AI/supplier solutions. They saved, I can't remember the figures now, but it's NOK 150 million or something because it optimized better than the engineers were able to do in Equinor. So it's just a very concrete example on how we can use digital/intelligent computer softwares to help us improve and hence, reduce the scope, meaning less steel into that project.
So it is one way of doing it. Otherwise, what we -- how we work with projects in Equinor is that we do a technology assessment relatively early in the project phases. And when we do that, we assess do we need new technology, anything that needs to be qualified? And then secondly, is there technology available in the market that can actually improve the business cases. And then, of course, this goes in as advice, okay, we're back to the category managers all the way back to the technology experts within Equinor that sort of needs to be aware of the beautiful things that you may offer.
I might add something on that side because this was a question from a smaller supplier that would like to actually work for Equinor. And as a general advice, I think it's probably a good way to approach us through our key suppliers. And I think that's easier also in terms of figuring out how to become a supplier. I mean you can always go into equinor.com, and we have a supplier portal. And there, you will find a lot of information and also what kind of requirements that we have put up to become a direct supplier for Equinor. But as a general rule, I think our key suppliers are curious and eager to actually work with smaller suppliers as well.
Mette, I have some great news. You actually answered the next question already.
I didn't know that.
No, I know.
I've been there before.
That's good.
Well, it was actually any advice for suppliers to have how to best communicate with Equinor. There is at least one in the audience that find it challenging to reach the right department to offer the service. Well, we can say that it can be difficult within Equinor as well. So do you want to comment?
No, I think I already answered that. I mean, if you want to get more information, it's important that you look into the supplier portal. But you can always ask this question at the networking session or when you meet with the category leaders and managers and others.
Yes. But be curious on the categories because we have categories for sort of mechanical, we have kind of categories or sort of if you sort of recognize some of the categories, it's is a good starting point.
Time for one more question.
Okay. Anders, you mentioned simplification, documentation requirements generates high cost and complexity to the projects, what can be done in order to optimize this?
I think it's fair that simplification goes both sort of for the physical components, the way we develop them and obviously, also how we document them. And this is another area where I'm a bit afraid of the [ IRA's ] [indiscernible] in terms of us basically producing more at the expense of complexity. So that is something that has to be avoided. Also then sometimes, in our projects, we are financing them through project financing. We have government requirements through authorities. So some of these requirements in terms of documentation are not ours. But I think in project development in general, it is good to try to reduce as much as possible and I'll also be curious on how they digitalize and avoid that we have stacks of PDFs lying in difficult areas to reach and have it more in searchable databases, et cetera. So -- but I think it's a key point of simplification and standardization also within the documentation space.
My father has been a supplier to Equinor for a long time. He's sort of really a small supplier as supplying small things, he wouldn't have liked that. But anyway, I've been discussing documentation with him for -- on family dinners for many, many years, a lot of complaints. But I was really happy because I could finally tell him that, yes, we can reuse documentation. And we have previously, so okay, we needed every new project and so on, but we are open up for reuse of documentation. And I honestly believe if you look at the future portfolio, if we're going to do 75 highway projects, it's going to be a 1 slot. There's going to be a 4 slot. There's going to be a lot of standardization elements and then standardize not just in documentation, but of course, reusing also documentation is one of the keys going forward.
I just wanted to add, and you said it before, but I want to add it anyhow. It's not only about suppliers doing things differently, it's also looking at ourselves internally and how we can work differently internally and together with the suppliers. And I think it's important that you dare to challenge us. It's really, really important because without that dynamics, it will be difficult to succeed with all these challenges ahead of us, which will be turned into opportunities if we do it the right way.
Okay. Thank you very much, Mette, Trond and Anders.
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Equinor — Special Call - Equinor ASA
Equinor — Special Call - Equinor ASA
Equinor fordert Lieferanten zu engerer Zusammenarbeit, Kostenreduktion und Standards, während Sicherheit und Projekt‑execution im Mittelpunkt stehen.
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Stärkerer Schulterschluss mit Lieferanten zur Senkung von Kosten, Standardisierung und Wiederverwendung, um zahlreiche kleinere Projekte wirtschaftlich zu machen.
- Sicherheit: Dringender Appell nach besseren Sicherheitsstandards nach fatalem Unfall; Supplier‑led Safety wird betont.
- Portfolio: Weiterhin Balance zwischen klassischem Öl & Gas und Ausbau von erneuerbaren Energien; NCS (Norwegian continental shelf) bleibt Kern.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- NCS‑Plan: Ziel, die Produktion auf der Norwegian continental shelf bei 1,2 Mio. b/d bis 2035 zu halten; geplante jährliche Investitionen von USD 6–7 Mrd.
- Tiebacks & Standard: Ziel: 75 Subsea‑Tiebacks in 10 Jahren; Fokus auf Margen‑Mindset, Supplier‑led Spezifikationen, Wiederverwendung und Kostensenkung.
- Erneuerbare: Drei Großprojekte in Bau (u.a. Empire Wind ~50% fertig), Power‑Segment wird in zwei Wochen zusammengeführt; Projektökonomie bleibt stark von Markt‑/Regelungsunterstützung abhängig.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Konkrete Zahlen: Nennung von 250 Explorationsbohrungen, 600 Enhanced‑Recovery‑Wells, 3.000 Interventionen und 200 zu verschließenden Bohrungen über die nächsten Jahre.
- Operativ: Bacalhau ist onstream; Northern Lights Phase 2 wurde sanktioniert; Hinweis auf +90% Kosten bei Subsea/Marine‑Installationen seit 2019.
- Digitalisierung: Konkrete Erwähnung von 3D‑Druck und KI als Hebel für Lifecycle‑Optimierung und On‑demand‑Teile.
❓ Fragen der Analysten / Teilnehmer
- Nachhaltigkeit: Wie Lieferanten Lebenszyklusoptimierung unterstützen können — 3D‑Druck und digitale Ersatzteillogistik wurden als Beispiele genannt.
- Investitionssicherheit: Sensitivität des Investmentplans gegenüber Ölpreis — Equinor strebt stabile Investitionsrahmen an, ist aber nicht immun gegen Einkommensrückgänge.
- Projekt‑Phase & Zugang: Wie kleine Lieferanten früh einsteigen können — über Key‑Supplier, Supplier‑Portal und Networking; Wunsch nach weniger Dokumentations‑Overhead und mehr Wiederverwendung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikationen: Kurzfristig stützt der Start von Bacalhau Cashflow; mittelfristig tragen stabile NCS‑Investitionen zur Auslastung der Lieferkette bei. Gleichzeitig sind stark gestiegene Installationskosten, politische Unsicherheiten für Elektrifizierungsprojekte und Sicherheitsrisiken Material‑ und Margenrisiken. Anleger sollten Projekt‑Sanktionsraten, Kostentrends und politische Rahmenbedingungen im Blick behalten.
Equinor — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by. My name is Kat, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Equinor Analyst Call Second quarter. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the call over to Bård Glad Pedersen, Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator, and thank you to all of you for calling in. I'm here today together with our CFO, Torgrim Reitan. As usual, he will present our second quarter results before we open up for a Q&A session. As usual, we will keep this within 1 hour in total.
So with that, I hand it to you, Torgrim to take us through the numbers.
Okay. Thank you, Bård, and good morning, and thank you for joining us. I hope you are enjoying your summer. Before we get to our results, let me draw your attention to the photo of Johan Castberg, a truly impressive. Johan Castberg has ramped up to plateau production in less than 3 months to 220,000 barrels per day. The oil is of high quality, and we are now realizing a premium around $6 per barrel compared to Brent.
Today, we report solid financial results, driven by strong operational performance, new fields onstream and strong production growth from U.S. onshore. We report adjusted operating income of $6.5 billion before tax. Our IFRS net income of $1.3 billion was impacted by an impairment on our U.S. offshore wind. I will come back to this.
Year-to-date, our cash flow from operations after tax has been strong at $9.3 billion. Our adjusted earnings per share was $0.64. Energy markets continue to be impacted by geopolitical unrest, conflicts and uncertainty around tariffs and trade wars. We have seen significant volatility in all markets. The European gas market is impacted by lower storage levels. Inventories are now almost 20 percentage points lower than last year and also well below the average of the last 5 years.
Warm weather in Europe has, over the past weeks, driven additional gas to power demand. At the same time, we see storage filling in Asia, also driving demand and less LNG is now coming to Europe. In these times of uncertainty, we continue to focus on what we are able to control. Our operations and how we maintain resilience. We are committed to cost and capital discipline, and we report a flat cost development in the quarter, which is our goal for the year.
Our CapEx guidance stay firm. And our balance sheet remains robust through a lower price environment. Across the portfolio, we are making strategic progress. Johan Castberg reached plateau quickly, as I mentioned, we took the final investment decision on new Johan Sverdrup Phase 3 and Fram South in the Troll area. All of this supports longevity on the NCS, maintaining production levels all the way to 2035.
Recently, we announced 2 large long-term contract -- long-term agreements for the supply of gas to U.K. and Germany. This demonstrates that large commercial players in Europe see the need for Norwegian gas for power production and for industry for decades to come. Internationally, we continue to optimize the portfolio. This quarter, we increased our U.S. onshore gas production by 50% based on the transactions we did last year, and we captured almost 80% higher gas prices.
In Brazil, we have announced the divestment of the Peregrino field for a value of $3.5 billion. And we now focus our attention on the development of Bacalhau and Raia. We expect first oil at Bacalhau this autumn, and Raia, our domestic gas field is expected to start production in 2028. Within our Renewables business, we have secured a project financing package of EUR 6 billion for the Baltic 2 and 3 offshore wind farms in Poland. This is at favorable terms supporting double-digit equity returns.
On Empire Wind 1, the stop work order was lifted in May, and the project is back in execution. This is positive, and I'm very glad to report that. However, we are making an impairment of $955 million in the quarter. The main driver for this is the changes in regulations for future offshore wind projects in the U.S. Part of the impairment is related to the undeveloped Phase 2 of Empire Wind. However, the largest portion is related to the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal. The development of the terminal assumed future projects would use it. This is now unlikely with the current framework conditions. And this new reality is reflected in the updated book value for Empire Wind 1 and the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal. The impairment also includes the effect of higher tariffs on steel and a more limited amount related to the stop work order. The development we have seen leads to lower life cycle returns on Empire Wind. But the best way to protect value for our shareholders in the current situation was clearly to move forward with the project.
And on a portfolio basis, our offshore wind projects in operations and execution still deliver double-digit equity returns. Then to capital distribution. For the quarter, the Board approved an ordinary cash dividend of $0.37 per share. And a third tranche of share buyback of up to $1.265 billion, including the state's share. In total, we expect to deliver around $9 billion in capital distribution for the year, in line with what we said at the CMU.
So let's dive into our results. Safety remains our top priority. We again deliver our best safety results with a serious incident frequency of 0.27 and a personal injury rate of 2.2. We continue to learn from incidents and work hard towards improvements. In the second quarter, we produced 2,096,000 barrels per day, up more than 2% from last year. We are on track to deliver 4% production growth for the year.
On the NCS, our liquids production is up 4%, driven by the ramp-up of Johan Castberg and starting Halten East. And also high regularity on Johan Sverdrup and other fields had a significant impact. NCS production was impacted by planned maintenance and the shutdown of Hammerfest LNG. Our increased U.S. onshore gas production is around double the production loss from divesting Nigeria and Azerbaijan, which impacted our international production. We produced 1.1 terawatt hours this quarter. Renewable production increased by 26%, mainly driven by the ramp-up of Dogger Bank A in the U.K.
Now over to our financial results. Liquids prices were lower than the same quarter last year, while gas prices were higher in Europe and the U.S. This has impacted our results across segments. Adjusted operating income in E&P Norway totaled $5.7 billion before tax and $1.2 billion after tax. Our E&P International business delivered higher production from Brazil and new wells in Argentina and Angola. Peregrino and assets under our U.K. IGD are classified as held for sale. This represents around $10 billion, and we do not report depreciation for these assets any longer.
Our E&P U.S. results were driven by high onshore gas production. Also, there was a one-off related to an increased cost estimate in the abandonment obligations for Titan. MMP delivered solid gas trading, but results were below the guided range, impacted by the Hammerfest LNG maintenance and weaker crude trading. Our renewable results reflects higher project activity, but also significantly lower business development and early phase costs.
This quarter, cash flow from operations was $9.2 billion. Total taxes paid was $7.2 billion, driven by 2 NCS tax installments totaling around $6.8 billion. For the second half of this year, the NCS tax payments are expected to be NOK 100 billion. These taxes will be paid across 5 equal installments from August through December. This reflects a change from previously paying 6 tax installments to now paying 10 annual tax installments in Norway.
This quarter, we distributed $1.3 billion to our shareholders. Organic CapEx was $3.4 billion, and our net cash flow was negative $2.6 billion. We have a solid financial position with around $24 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Our net debt to capital employed ratio increased to 15.2% this quarter. This reflects the state's share of the buyback from last year booked as finance debt, impacting the net debt ratio by around 8 percentage points, as we said last quarter. The cash flow impact of this will be next quarter. At current forward prices, we expect the net ratio to remain around current level -- around current levels towards the end of the year.
Finally, to our guidance. We maintain the guidance we communicated at our CMU in February. Our progress is in line with those ambitions, both in terms of production growth and investments as well as capital distribution.
So now back to you, Bård, and then I look forward to the Q&A session. So please, Bård.
[Operator Instructions] And the first one on my list is Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.
2. Question Answer
The first one is just on the Empire Wind impairment and the impairment testing. The 3% discount rate, I think, it's probably one of the lowest I've seen and it looks a bit odd relative to sort of 10- or 30-year treasury. So could you just help give me some rationale as to why you use that number?
And then the second one is on working capital. We had another release this quarter. You talked about the lower volatility in trading. I'm trying to understand whether is this a more structural level of working capital that we should be at relative to the last few years? Because, I guess, lower volatility means less capital for trading. What should we expect going forwards?
Okay. Thanks, Biraj. So first on Empire Wind, yes. So the 3% discount rate we use, I just want to be clear on a couple of things. That is an unlevered discount rate, and it is a real discount rate after tax as such. So I think that's 2 very important parameters going into that. Oil and gas investments are -- the discount rate we use for them is 5.5 percentage points. So there's a difference here, 5.5 and 3% between those 2 projects.
What justifies a lower discount rate within this project is actually that the revenue profile is fixed and is fixed for 25 years as such. So there's a lot of reasoning and analysis behind all the discount rates we are using. So these should be consistent and applied consistently across the portfolio that we use.
Your second question, Biraj, was related to working capital movements. So working capital is now $5 billion and is a reduction of $550 million as far as I remember. It is actually not driven by the trading activities. It is driven by movements in the upstream segments as such. And on your question whether this is sort of a normal level, it has been stable. The working capital within the trading environment has remained stable for the time being.
But on your point on sort of the volatility. There is a lot of volatility. The point is that the volatility is different than sort of the traditional volatility. The volatility is driven by political decisions, which makes it harder for traders to trade around. So there is less risk taking in the trading environment currently, and this is going across the whole trading environment as such and that's sort of the nature of what's happening in the world for the time being. So Thanks, Biraj.
Next one on my list is Irene Himona from Bernstein.
My first one on the new tax system in Norway, just to clarify, I think you said that all of the 10 installments for 2025 are payable over the 5 months August to December. Is that correct? And then how will it be spread into 2026?
My second question on gearing at 15%. So you've now reached the low end of your -- through the cycle range of 15% to 30%. I just wonder, with Brent at less than 70% and this higher but unstructured volatility is perhaps 15% to 20% preferable to 15% to 30% when the Board sets investor distributions.
Okay. Thanks, Irene. So first, on the tax, the structure of the tax payments. So the tax payment will be evenly distributed over the years. So in the second half of this year, there will be 5 installments, and then there will be 5 installments in the first half next year. So there are tax payments in all months except from July and January. So it's just a way of distributing it even more evenly throughout the year than the 6. So this is a minor adjustment to the payment schedule and we'll see to that we guide you for every quarter coming, how many installments you should expect for the next quarter and all of that. So the reason why bringing it up is sort of -- if you want to update your cash flow models, please do an Investor Relations is happy to provide even more details to this as necessary.
Your second question around gearing 15%, yes. So the increase of 8 percentage points from last quarter is driven by sort of the annual payments to the state regarding share buyback programs. So 15%, we expect that to be around that level towards the end of the year. So it is very important for us to run with a conservative balance sheet and a robust financial position. And that is going to be the case going forward as well. We have no intention to sort of change the range. The range is not a target in itself. It's something that is broadly seen as consistent with our rating ambitions.
So there is no sort of mathematical link here as such. When it comes to sort of the link to share buyback, and I think you mentioned that, I mean, share buyback is an important part of our capital distribution structure. We have not linked our capital distribution to development in cash flow from operations or free cash flow or what have you. But we are committed to remain competitive using those metrics when we compare ourselves to peers going forward, meaning that there will be times where sort of the balance sheet will strengthen, and there are times when the balance sheet will sort of be weakened. So there's not sort of a mathematical relationship here. And then these boundaries are not seen as absolute in any way. We want to run with a very strong balance sheet and a strong cash position as we -- as you know that we have.
Next on my list is Alejandro Vigil from Santander Bank.
Yes. The first one is about Brazil. Just trying to understand the timing of the Peregrino divestment. And also the Bacalhau project, the expectations of production next year. Trying to understand if the Peregrino divestment is going to be offset by Bacalhau volumes next year.
And the second question is about the U.S. onshore gas business that has been a clear focus of your strategy recently. If you see more opportunities of growth there through acquisitions and also if you are planning some investments in the downstream, in the gas-fired projects, for example, they're trying to leverage the AI boom in the U.S.
Okay. Thanks, Alejandro. So, yes, so the divestment of Peregrino is -- it is high. It is not closed yet. So we expect to close the deal towards the end of the year. We are very satisfied with the price that we achieved and is a value-creative as such. So -- and the reasoning behind doing that now is to concentrate on the new developments, Bacalhau and Raia and quite a few people will be moved from the Peregrino organization into a new organization. So this is from a portfolio high grading point of view. And Peregrino has been through a long life already. We have invested in to solidify it and make it high quality, and it was good time to realize that value currently. Brazil remains very, very important and key country for us going forward, and we will keep sort of investing and that brings me over to Bacalhau.
So Bacalhau is progressing well. commissioning is ongoing on the remaining systems. We have 2 drilling rigs drilling wells working, and we had 2 installation vessels working on subsea. So this is going according to plan, and we will have quite a handful of wells producing by year-end on Bacalhau. And then, of course, there will be -- so we assume production contribution in the second half from Bacalhau. Yes. And then there will be a lot of drilling activities going forward on Bacalhau, and it will be a significant contributor to our international production.
On U.S. onshore gas, yes. So around a year ago or 9 months ago, we made 2 acquisitions from EQT into the Marcellus play, increasing our exposure quite a bit into that asset. That adds close to 100,000 barrels a day with gas production under operatorship of Expand. Since then, gas prices has increased significantly, and that is now contributing very well to the cash flow and earnings of the company.
A little bit of color to why we do that. We do believe in natural gas in the long-term. We see it as a very important part of energy transition and a significant part of the electrification of the world that is ongoing. And you're absolutely right, the location of Marcellus gas in the Northeast fits well with sort of a big drive in the U.S. to focus on data centers and build competitiveness related to AI. And energy is seen as the big facilitator for competitiveness of the U.S. economy over the next years. So we are well positioned with what we have.
And on your question on whether we could be interested in sort of seeing more opportunities and into gas-fired power plants. There's no concrete plans, but we do see that there is a stronger and stronger link between gas markets and power markets going forward. So we are watching that space naturally.
Next one is from Redburn. Peter Low.
The first was just on unit OpEx costs in Norway. It looks like they've increased by around 10% year-over-year. Now I think part of that is just FX, but I'm not sure that explains all of it. I was just wondering what else was going on there? Does it relate to the cost profile of some of the projects that are ramping up?
The second question was just, is there any notable maintenance or turnarounds expected in the third quarter that you're able to flag?
Okay. Thanks, Peter. So, when it comes to unit costs for NCS unit production cost, we see that as a stable quarter-on-quarter. A broader topic is -- and that's at a level of $6.7 per barrel. But it's sort of a good opportunity to broaden the discussion on costs. We said earlier this year that we aim this year to keep costs flat and fighting inflation and neutralizing the impact on inflation across the portfolio. So that is -- we really started seeing the impact of that.
And there's a lot of initiatives and actions and momentum across the portfolio within operating and maintenance, strong push on efficiency. We have significantly reduced early phase in business development costs and also staff costs are coming down, and we hardly do external recruitments and a longer, as such. So this is -- and you see it in the number, you see that on a quarter-to-quarter basis, we have been able to keep that flat even if we are growing production. So this will also be reflected in the unit production cost.
So when it comes to turnaround, maybe one thing to mention is Hammerfest LNG which has been in a turnaround situation for -- in the second quarter. That is still in maintenance, but we actually expect it to come back by the end of July and then being back in production in August and September. So other than that, when it comes to the coming quarters. We see -- let's see here, is it 45 -- around 45,000 barrels per day in turnaround impact in the third quarter and lower in the fourth quarter, maybe 14,000 to 15,000 barrels per day as such. So the third quarter in total is on par with the second quarter as such.
We are then turning to Henri Patricot from UBS.
Two questions, please. The first one, going back to the Peregrino disposal and the proceeds of close to $3 billion. How should we think about these? Is it mostly about strengthening the balance sheet or potentially opens up the potential for some acquisitions to replace Peregrino volumes in international E&P or elsewhere?
And then secondly, on the 2 deals that you mentioned, Torgrim in the U.K. and Germany on natural gas sales. Could you go through the benefits for Equinor of signing these long-term contracts and maybe also the rationale for sticking to spot prices rather than maybe find another pricing mechanism that could reduce your exposure to spot prices in a few years when we could see potentially low prices as the market is supplied?
Yes. Okay. Thanks, Henri. So first on Peregrino. So the headline value of the deal is at $3.5 billion. The effective date was first of January 2024, which is important to note. So since then, there will be a [ broad ] contract settlement in sort of ultimately when we close this deal towards the end of the year. So the proceeds that we will receive is less than $3.5 million depending on the prices, is a little bit, but it is actually quite a bit of cash that sort of has been generated over the last 2 years that will need to be taken away from the headline number.
On your question whether this opens up for other acquisitions, well, we do acquisitions and we do divestments more driven by the strategic reasoning and the value creation opportunities behind it. And over the last years, we have done quite a few, maybe worth mentioning a few. We have divested out of Nigeria and Azerbaijan, bringing in value. We have made acquisitions into U.S. onshore.
We have the Peregrino divestments. And then we are combining our portfolios in the U.K. with Shell and creating the largest operator in the U.K. as such. So it has been quite an active couple of years within M&A. And you can rest assure that we will have a focus on a strong balance sheet, no matter what we do on the M&A front.
Then on gas contracts, I think it's important for me to leave you with -- well, first of all, I mean, those contracts really demonstrates the attractiveness of Norwegian gas to EU. This is clearly driven by security of supply for the long-term customers. So we have signed 3 long-term contracts over the last 1.5 years. That is actually 20% of our natural gas position on the NCS. And it actually covers 6% of the EU imports.
And then your question is, so how does this work? Well, they are priced based on spot prices in general. They also have free sourcing associated with it. So we don't need to source them with our own gas. We can buy gas in the market if we find that's suitable. So it's sort of -- it maintains full -- we have full flexibility in our gas production system. And also, it doesn't limit us in any way as such. It's just a contract that sort of adds value.
It is important for me that you as investors have exposure to the European gas market when you buy the Equinor share. And we will continue to swap everything to an exposure equal to 70% day ahead and 30% month ahead in the portfolio, meaning that when you see volatility in the gas markets in Europe, you can rest assure that we will be able to capitalize on it and it will find its way to our earnings.
The next one on my list is Teodor Sveen-Nilsen from Sparebank 1 Markets.
First question that is on listing. Could you please provide an update on listing also maybe how listing's role will be in your ambition of keeping NCS production flat from 2020 to 2035?
Second question, I just want to go back to the 3% discount rate to use for impairment testing for Empire. I definitely understand there's a difference between the rate we use for impairment testing and rate to use for investment decisions, still. I just wanted to explain the relation between the 3% you used for impairment testing and the 4% to 8% real return that you indicate as ambition for renewal projects.
Okay. Thanks, Teodor. So listing is a promising discovery in the very north in the Barents Sea, as some of you would know. And we are actively working that to bring it forward to an investment decision. And the investment decision might come next year, might come later. So we'll see. We do believe that the project absolutely have the characteristics to become a good development for Equinor in the future. When it will ultimately be sanctioned and put in production, we will have to come back to when, of course, when we know more about that.
When it comes to the 2035 ambition and keeping NCS flat, the main driver behind that is projects that we have concrete and specific plans for, we have more than 200 IOR projects that are currently being matured to deliver into that. And also we have more than 200 prospects that we are maturing to get into that portfolio. And then this is sort of a risk portfolio. So it's very hard to say whether listing is in or out, but it's a natural part that we take that into the portfolio from a risk perspective towards 2035.
When I'm touching that point, I am an old man, and I remember in the IPO in 2001, that concern with investors was, but NCS is declining. Why is this attractive? And here we are after 25 years, producing more than in 2001 and actually looking at the production in 2035 on the same level.
So I mean, it's a remarkable story of a basin that has kept giving. I used the opportunity for sales table, but anyway, it is an important part of the portfolio. On the 3% discount rate versus what we do for investment decisions. So the discount rate that we use for these purposes is meant to mirror our cost of capital, a relevant cost of capital for these investments.
For investment decisions, we clearly are not satisfied with the cost of capital. We need a significant premium to that. And for renewables projects. We want to see double-digit returns on the money that we invest the equity that we invest. So there's a -- these are not consistent. The 4% to 8% we have abandoned. We don't use that anymore Teodor. So we use more than 10% of the money that we invest.
Next one is Paul Redman from BNP Paribas Exane.
Yes. I guess my first question is just I think you said in the prelim remarks that the view is that debt would remain flat at current levels or the gearing would remain flat at current levels. I just wanted to ask what's included in that assumption, price -- is there a view on working capital included? How much Peregrino inflows do you expect? So kind of just some of the steps that are taken to get to that assumption?
And then a second question on the CapEx. I think for your $13 billion guidance for the year, you're using an NOK, [ $11 ] rate. What's the impact if that goes down to 10 that FX rate impact?
Okay. Thanks, Paul. So in when it comes to net debt towards the year-end. So around current levels, I mean, it's -- we all know that prices can fluctuate. So in that statement, sort of based on where the prices are currently, forward prices as such and working capital assumptions in that is sort of fairly stable working capital assumptions. And Peregrino is -- the closing of Peregrino is there are 2 separate transactions there. And we assume at least one of them to be in this side of new year and then the other one is a little bit more uncertain. So that's why we say around because, I mean, it's -- there are so many moving parts there. But I just want to give you some sort of guidance on that. The step up during this year is happening in the second quarter. And after the second quarter, it is a stable development.
Then on sort of your CapEx. Yes, so $13 billion, we maintain that guidance, and we have used the currency assumption of $11 as you say. So there is a certain part of investments that is in Norwegian kroner. So hard to give an exact number, but around 30-ish percentage points, I would say, is exposed to Norwegian kroner. So we will be a stronger Norwegian kroner, it has sort of a pressure into the number, but we work very hard to manage all of this. And with all the efforts going on currently in the portfolio. we have decided to maintain the guidance.
Let's move on to Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.
Two questions, if I may. I wanted to refer back to your comment on maintaining a competitive cash return to shareholders and whether perhaps you could elaborate a bit more on what metric you're mostly looking at. If I look at your peers, most of them are using an operating cash flow payout. So I wonder if that would be something that you're referring to?
And then secondly, thinking about some of the opportunities opening up globally, there is a very public process led by Galp on Namibia, which is one of the interesting new bases that are opening up. I was wondering if you're actively participating in that one?
Okay. Thanks, Michele. So capital distribution to be competitive. So of course, we know very well what our peers are using and all of that. So we want to remain competitive in that setting. I can give you maybe a couple of data points. The cash dividend is currently at $0.37 per share. We have grown that by $0.02 per year, and we want to keep growing that cash dividend sort of also in the future. So you should see that part of capital distribution as bankable, this will be something that we are extremely committed to keep on delivering through the cycles.
Then we will use on top of that share buyback to see to that the total package is competitive. And we will also use share buyback to sort of -- we had an extreme situation in 2022 with very, very high prices and we use share buyback to sort of distribute that part of the earnings in a way. So we want to use share buyback as that tool. So we don't have a formula, and I don't intend to introduce a formula. We know what the others are doing, and we want to put forward a share buyback program that keeps us competitive versus peers.
When you measure us against those type of metrics, I'm not talking about yield, I'm talking about those type of metrics as others are using. When that is said, from time to time, we are willing to use the balance sheet if we find that appropriate. And all this time if we find it appropriate to strengthen the balance sheet as such. So thanks, Michele.
Then you had a second one. That was on the Namibia. I'm not in a -- clearly, we know what's going on. And -- and I won't comment on specifics on Namibia. But what I would like to say is that what we have done over the last few years is focusing our upstream E&P portfolio internationally, and that has served us well. And clearly, deepening into areas where we are is something that typically has priority.
Next one on my list is Morgan Stanley, Martijn Rats.
A lot of good questions have already been asked, but the answer, I just wanted to sort of follow up on what you just replied to Michele. As in this point about being competitive compared to us is really sort of quite crucial and important. As you can imagine, we're all very interested in what the buyback will be in 2026. But if the buyback is meant -- if the buyback is going to be competitive, then it sort of implies that the CapEx also has to be competitive in the sense that if -- in an overall financial framework, you can only be sort of competitive in one area if you do something similar in another area, too.
And relative to CFFO, Equinor's CapEx is quite high, the sort of CapEx percentage of CFFO is much higher than many of the other European peers. So I understand that you're saying, well, the distribution should also be competitive, but how can the distributions be competitive if the CapEx is at a much higher percentage of CFFO, how are we ending up in a competitive space then?
And secondly, the other point I wanted to ask about the -- about the buyback sort of somewhat of a mechanical point, but would you envision to continue to simply communicate to the market what the buyback is for the following year at the full year results? Or could you also move to more of a sort of quarterly sort of come as it go type guidance? Because I can imagine that looking into 2026, it might be quite hard to make up your mind on how the entire year is going to pan out already like right at the start. I was hoping you could say if you think about these 2 things.
Okay. Thanks, Martijn . So on the first one, actually, a very good question, and I'm very glad you asked it because there's something to comment around that because the Norwegian tax system creates a disturbance when you compare us to others. CapEx is a pretax number. Cash flow from operation is an after-tax number.
And when you look at our CapEx profile, a significant part of that is sort of in the Norwegian continental shelf with 78% tax deduction as we spend. So as you would understand, our after tax cash flow to CapEx is significantly lower and if you compare that number to our peers, you probably will get to another conclusion as such. And then that number needs to be prepared on an equal basis with the cash flow from operations post-tax. There's a lot of details in this and clearly more than happy to follow up with you afterwards, Martijn, through Investor Relations and all of that. But I'm very glad you asked that because it's such an important driver why behind why we might look different than the others, while we are actually more similar than you should believe.
Okay. Then on your second question on buyback. That is not a topic for discussion today if there will be any changes to this. I mean, we will typically do that on a Capital Markets Day or something like that. But it's something that we -- has nothing to say about currently. And then if there is something new to it, it will have to come at such an event.
Next one is John Olaisen from ABG Sundal Collier.
A couple of questions very quickly. What is your latest view the timing of when Johan Sverdrup will come off plateau?
And secondly, you talked about cost inflation and the fighting cost inflation. Do you still see the same cost inflation? Or has cost inflation come down? Is cost inflation about coming down a little bit? And maybe are there differences between Norway and outside of Norway when it comes to cost inflation, I would assume you see some maybe some deflation in onshore in the U.S. So if you could comment a little bit on these things, that would be great, please.
Perfect, John. So first on Johan Sverdrup. This quarter, we had a very high regularity on Johan Sverdrup. Actually 99%. So there's a great job done by the organization to keep it that way. Production this year in 2025, we say that that's pretty close to the production levels we saw in 2023, '24, maybe around 720,000 barrels per day. So there are a couple of things I really would like to underline here that is going very well. One is sort of the work related to water management.
And as you would understand, as you produce these wells, there will be sort of water produced and our ability to manage water as sort of that increases is extremely important. And this is a core capability that we have done for 40 years. So -- but that is going well. We are also now drilling or retrofitting multilaterals into wells we have drilled earlier and multilaterals several wells in 1 -- out of 1 wellbore. That is also producing well.
So -- and then lastly, we made a final investment decision on Johan Sverdrup Phase 3 earlier this year. And all of these, all of these elements have enabled us to increase our assumptions when it comes to recovery rates from 65% to 75%. So I mean, it's going well with Johan Sverdrup. We have the Phase 2 of Johan Sverdrup was designed to bring forward volumes at a very much higher level, but of course, coming off plateau earlier as such.
So the field will come off plateau. And I don't have a number for you, but I just want to leave with you that this has a high attention and we have our very best people working on these topics and we will give you an update later on that. When it comes to cost inflation, we see that we continue to be able to take out efficiency in the organization and in the portfolio. It comes from scale. In our operations, we can put on new developments without increasing the organization and without limited cost. We are prioritizing very hard. We have a lot of opportunities, but prioritizing very hard and taking out sort of efficiency across the more administrative or structural part of the company.
So that sort of internal thing is going well. Looking outside and inflation, there is still a tight market within the oil and gas sector. Still a heated market, but maybe a couple of points. We see that within drilling and well, high-end floater market has softened a bit. We also see that within engineering and construction, it is tight in Norway currently due to the tax package, and you know that very well, John, but that will drop off, so we actually see that sort of the pressure there will come off in the next maybe 12 months and also a little bit coming off in sort of the high-end floater market in Norway.
When it comes to the yards and Asian yards, we see that is busy. We do think that will continue. There's a lot of FPSOs being built. And that leads me to subsea and Marine, which sort of we do think will remain tight because FPSO going forward. They always have a large subsea scope as such. So to summarize, I think in Norway, there might be a little bit of easing when sort of all this activity related to the tax package is coming off. Apart from that, it's a fairly tight market in, John. So thank you very much.
[Operator Instructions] Next is Kim Fustier from HSBC.
I wanted to ask about operations and just that ramp-up on Johan Castberg was remarkably fast. I mean, was that ramp-up in line with your plan and your expectations? Or was it in fact, better than expectations? And what did you do in terms of preparation or anything that made this ramp-up faster than others we've seen before?
Okay. Thanks, Kim. Yes, thank you for the question. Yes, it is Johan Castberg is a mega greenfield development. And the fact that we were able to bring it on plateau in less than 3 months is just remarkable. We had assumed in our plans that we should be able to go quickly, but we actually ended up doing it even quicker than we had planned to. So Johan Castberg is at 220,000 barrels per day at plateau production. And it's going to be a significant contribution to the production growth this year and have a full impact in the second half of this year into the 4% production growth that we have put forward. So ended good installation of the ship and assets on the field.
Moving on to Nash Cui in Barclays.
Just a follow-up on the cost inflation side. I think one of your Norwegian peers mentioned about CapEx cost inflation, And I -- it's interesting to run earlier, you mentioned about 30% of your '25 CapEx is as opposed to Norwegian kroner. Just wonder how should you think about 2026 impact? And you mentioned that you still want to keep the CapEx guidance? Do you have to give up any opportunities?
Thanks, Nash. So managing currency exposure is a natural part of what we do. We define ourselves as a dollar company, revenues are in dollars, accounts are in dollars, investments largely in dollars, costs also in dollars, and you should think about us as a dollar company assets. And then we'll have to manage fluctuations in other currencies like Norwegian kroner and particularly Norwegian kroner and so on. So clearly, we have the intention to be able to tighten up the portfolio further, so we can actually stay within our current guidance even if there will be a little bit Norwegian kroner exposure in there. So that's the plan.
Then it's Matt Lofting from JPMorgan.
Most of mine have been asked, but I'll just ask you, Torgrim, on MMP. I think you made some comments earlier around sort of the challenges in the recent environment around the trading businesses, less appetite time to take risk in the second quarter. How do you see the environment going forward from here, thinking about the second half of the year? Do you expect or sort of see as we sit today any changes around that? And/or is the business in a position where if it doesn't change that the setup and the exposures can be better adapted to work around it?
Okay. No, thanks, Matt. Yes, it's -- it's a good question. There are still a lot of value to be had within the trading environment even if the risk is different. And I can give you a couple of examples. Within our gas trading, we see a geographical arbitrage opportunities that is not linked to political risk in any way.
For instance, with Russian gas now getting out of the market, we see higher prices in the East than in the West, and we have access to all these markets through our pipeline systems and contracts and all of that. So currently, we are actually selling more gas towards the East than the West and taking out arbitrage opportunities and that -- and you'll see that in the MMP result, you saw that in the second quarter.
Also, based on your portfolio of oil qualities and shipping fleets and contracts enables you to take out value of trading. So this is sort of a little bit back to basic when it comes to trading and sort of asset-backed trading and physical trading and all of that, that will still continue.
However, within sort of the more trades that are exposed to geopolitical changes and all of that. Traders are struggling for the time being and there's a little bit of risk on that part of the portfolio, something that we see across the whole trading community assets. Still quite a bit of value to be had, but the volatility almost say, volatility is different than it used to be and it's harder for traders to create value out of it.
Thank you, Torgrim. There was a lot of questions today, but we have now passed the hour, and I want to be respectful for everybody's time. We didn't manage to get full through the list. But of course, the Investor Relations team remain available for calls during today and later in the week to follow up. So then we can conclude the call. And I thank you all for calling in and for asking your questions. Have a good rest of the day.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
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Equinor — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Equinor — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Solide operative Zahlen und 4% Produktionswachstum bestätigt; IFRS-Ergebnis belastet durch $955 Mio. Empire-Wind-Abschreibung.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Adjusted OpIncome: $6,5 Mrd. vor Steuern.
- IFRS-Nettogewinn: $1,3 Mrd., belastet durch eine Abschreibung von $955 Mio. auf Empire Wind 1.
- Operativer Cashflow (YTD): $9,3 Mrd.
- Produktion: 2.096.000 bpd (+2% YoY); Ziel für 2025: +4% Produktion.
- Kapitalverteilung: Dividende $0,37/Share; Rückkauftranche bis $1,265 Mrd.; Zieljahrespaket ~ $9 Mrd.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Portfolio‑Laufzeit NCS: FID für Johan Sverdrup Phase 3 und Fram South soll Produktion auf der norwegischen Kontinentalschelf (NCS) bis 2035 stützen.
- Operative Stärke: Johan Castberg in <3 Monaten auf Plateau (220k bpd) mit ~ $6/Barrel Premium; U.S.-Onshore‑Gas +50% Produktion nach Zukäufen.
- Disziplin bei Kosten & KapEx: Kostenentwicklung im Quartal flach; CapEx‑Guidance bleibt bestehen; Fokus auf Cash‑Erhalt und Kapitaldisziplin.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Guidance: Bestätigung der CMU‑Ziele (Produktion, Investitionen, Kapitalverteilung); Produktionswachstum ~4% für 2025.
- CapEx & Bilanz: Organisches CapEx Q2 $3,4 Mrd.; Nettoverhältnis (Net Debt/Capital Employed) bei 15,2% — erwartet rund dieses Niveau zum Jahresende.
- Risiken: Hohes Steuer‑Cashflow‑Volumen H2: NOK 100 Mrd. in 5 Raten (Aug–Dez); Regulatorische Änderungen in den USA drücken langfristige Wind‑Renditen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Empire Wind Abschreibung: Kritik an 3% Diskontsatz — Management: unlevered, real, nach Steuern; begründet durch festen 25‑Jahres‑Erlösprofil.
- Steuer‑Cashflow & Timing: Neue Einteilung der norwegischen Steuerzahlungen: 10 Jahresanteile werden über H2 2025 (5 Raten) und H1 2026 (5 Raten) verteilt; beeinflusst kurzfristig Liquidität.
- Kapitalverteilung vs. Gearing: Board hält Bandbreite 15–30% beibehalten; Rückkäufe wichtig, aber keine feste Formel; Anleger sollen Konkurrenzfähigkeit bei Gesamtrendite beachten — Vergleich mit Peers wird durch norwegische Steuerregeln verzerrt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bedeutung: Operativ starkes Quartal mit beschleunigten Volumina und robustem Cashflow; Aktionäre behalten planbare Dividende und Wiederinkauf in Aussicht. Kurzfristig relevant sind die hohen NCS‑Steuerzahlungen H2 und die Empire‑Wind‑Abschreibung, die IFRS‑Ergebnis und langfristige Wind‑Renditen drücken. Insgesamt bleibt die Kapitalallokation auf Wachstum in E&P und stabile Ausschüttungen ausgerichtet.
Finanzdaten von Equinor
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 1.027.167 1.027.167 |
2 %
2 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 519.041 519.041 |
2 %
2 %
51 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 508.125 508.125 |
3 %
3 %
49 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 11.753 11.753 |
3 %
3 %
1 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | 8.256 8.256 |
20 %
20 %
1 %
|
|
| EBITDA | 372.818 372.818 |
8 %
8 %
36 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 100.431 100.431 |
6 %
6 %
10 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 272.387 272.387 |
13 %
13 %
27 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 54.412 54.412 |
37 %
37 %
5 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen NOK.
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Firmenprofil
Equinor ASA ist in den Bereichen Exploration, Produktion, Transport, Raffination und Vermarktung von Erdöl und Erdölprodukten tätig. Das Unternehmen ist in den folgenden Segmenten tätig: Exploration und Produktion Norwegen, Exploration und Produktion International, Exploration und Produktion USA, Marketing, Midstream und Verarbeitung sowie Sonstige. Das Segment Exploration und Produktion Norwegen umfasst die kommerzielle Entwicklung von Öl- und Gasportfolios auf dem norwegischen Kontinentalschelf. Das Segment Exploration und Produktion International umfasst die Offshore- und Onshore-Aktivitäten in den USA, Mexiko und andere Aktivitäten weltweit. Das Segment Exploration und Produktion USA umfasst sowohl die Onshore- als auch die Offshore-Exploration, Erschließung und Produktion von Öl und Gas in den USA. Das Segment Marketing, Midstream und Verarbeitung vermarktet und handelt mit Öl- und Gasrohstoffen. Das Segment Sonstige umfasst neue Energielösungen, globale Strategie und Geschäftsentwicklung, Technologie, Projekte und Bohrungen sowie Unternehmensstäbe und Dienstleistungen. Das Unternehmen wurde am 18. September 1972 gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Stavanger, Norwegen.
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| Hauptsitz | Norwegen |
| CEO | Mr. Opedal |
| Mitarbeiter | 23.843 |
| Gegründet | 1972 |
| Webseite | www.equinor.com |


