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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 204,24 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 9,71 Mrd. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 204,24 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 11,81 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 191,89 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 9,71 Mrd. $
Enterprise Value = 191,89 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 11,81 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Arista Networks, Inc. Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
34 Analysten haben eine Arista Networks, Inc. Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
34 Analysten haben eine Arista Networks, Inc. Prognose abgegeben:
Beta Arista Networks, Inc. Events
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Bank of America 2026 Global Technology Conference
1. Question Answer
Welcome to the second day of our conference. Hopefully, you had a great breakfast. Today, I'm very pleased to host -- and I'm not saying it's just to say, but I'm -- really mean it, I'm -- the most favorite CEO in my universe. And she -- we sometimes argue, but it's always coming with a lot of respect to one another. So thank you, Jayshree.
So Jayshree Ullal, CEO of Arista; and Todd Nightingale, COO of Arista. And I've known Todd for many years from his days at Cisco and then Fastly that I took public and now at Arista.
So we're going to have a discussion for about 45 minutes. I'll try to keep it tight for about 40 minutes or 35 minutes and let you ask questions if you have any questions. And the discussion, it's -- as you know me, I'm not a quarter guy. It's not about the quarter. The discussion is really the value of Arista, the sustainability of trends. We do have a spending cycle in the industry with hyperscalers. And through the spending cycle, there are changes to the architecture. There are changes to the network. Customers are deploying certain technologies, and we want to go into it. So the purpose of this session is really to understand the core value of Arista.
And with that, so, last quarter, you raised the full year guidance from 25% to 28%. And I remember when we looked at your guidance, I'm talking about like a year ago, when you look at your guidance, and I told investors, these numbers don't make sense. They're too low. The industry is growing faster. The company, if you take out this and you look at this, it's supposed to grow faster.
So the question is what drives the growth? And I know this is kind of a soft question to start our discussion. What drives the growth right now? And how sustainable is what we are seeing in the past few quarters?
Well, first of all, Tal, you're my favorite too. There's not too many investors who we can say I know for decades. So that kind of times both of us a little bit. And if I start talking about mainframes, it will really time me a little.
But coming back to the growth vectors for Arista, as you know, Arista really made networking sexy again. And part of that was focusing on those growth vectors. We pioneered the leaf-spine architecture, and we really redefined or reimagined networking for the cloud, right? And as you know, we power some of the world's largest cloud titans, as we call it, with this leaf-spine architecture that was different than the standard blocking loss-oriented enterprise architecture.
So today, one of our growth vectors continues to be the cloud customers. But a lot of our growth in the last decade came from what I call the front-end network, the more visible network where we were connecting to compute, storage, WAN, building the active-active leaf-spine, et cetera. In the last 3 years, we really had to study the back end of the network that was historically built through proprietary technologies like InfiniBand. And the first thing we set to work on was really defining Ethernet for those use cases. We now call it AI Fabric, scale up, scale out, scale across, scale up within a rack, scale out between racks and scale across between data centers themselves. And that's really going to drive a huge part of our growth.
Now with me is, of course, Todd Nightingale, our President and COO. And you know he reimagined the campus and enterprise in some of his prior assignments. But I think there's another one coming there as well. So that will be a huge vector of growth for us, where post-COVID, the campus looks very different from the carpeted buildings and you really need a uniform experience client-to-branch everywhere. So I think the AI and campus are going to be our fastest-growing segments. That doesn't mean the others don't grow, but they grow slower.
Yes. And when we look at hyperscaler spending, it's up giant this year, was up giant last year. When you talk about -- when you talk to them about their build-out plans and how sustainable is the cycle? What needs to happen for the cycle not to be just 1 or 2 years or 3 years, but rather a long-term cycle?
Yes. This is a really good question because even I get scared, I look back at our '99, 2000, that was a short-lived cycle. As we all know, it started out the great burst of Y2K and then collapsed. I think the biggest difference here is there is a very sustainable advantage for AI, both networking for AI and AI for networking. So it's going to traverse not just the hyperscalers but go into the Neocloud and enterprises as well. That's one.
And we haven't yet seen all the killer agentic AI applications yet, that's just beginning. So I think this is a multiyear, in fact, a multi-decade cycle. Now having said that, some of this CapEx is just stunning to me. We never thought of CapEx in the trillions, let alone billions back when we started this. So it's important to understand, though, that the CapEx has many, many pieces to it. The biggest one being compute, power and obviously, all the real estate itself, the cooling, the chilling, the buildings, et cetera.
Networking is a small piece of it. But becoming a very strategic piece, meaning I can't let these compute nodes idle. And this is where we really come in because in the past, you could have a bit of underutilization, over utilization, over subscription, it didn't matter. Here, these idle CPU cycles is idle money, right? So the ability to -- for this CapEx to continue growing, I think is high just because -- it's not only the large hyperscalers. There's a force multiplier of others coming into it with the Neocloud and enterprises. I think it's sustainable as far as I can see, which is generally not more than 2, 3 years. But I think this is a transformation much like the industrial revolution or the Internet revolution.
Now, will it have its values and peaks and highs and lows? Of course, Newton's laws of gravity means nothing just goes up to the right, there will be some ups and downs. But overall, it will still go up and to the right.
When it comes to your position, the market is expanding, meaning we started with 4 hyperscalers then Oracle, then Neocloud, now a lot more second-tier cloud. Talk about your position, market share, but not the numbers, rather your position as the market expands to other areas outside of the big hyperscalers.
Yes. And so I think, first of all, if you look back at 2022, our AI position was outside looking in. We were seeing all these GPUs built by NVIDIA connected largely by InfiniBand. So it was -- our position was 0. But interesting thing even back then is customers were asking us for our thought leadership because they were building these proprietary back ends. So today, I would say 3 or 4 years later, our position with the top titans, hyperscalers or even some of the Tier 2 cloud providers is medium to high. There's still existing networks to deal with. But you've heard me often talk about 4 out of 4 or in the past, plus 4 out of 5. We now have production, we went from trials to pilots to production in all these 4 major ones.
Now having said that, there's a whole lot more to do there now because largely, we were looking at production networks that are scale out, connecting all of these scale-up technologies. Now we have the opportunity to not only expand scale out, particularly with the advent of OpenAI defining multi-plane technologies with MRC, but also to scale across because more and more power is a real issue. And I think this is going to be -- it used to be a niche DCI data center interconnect use case, but the power of routing, multi-tenancy, SRv6 and tunneling across this, encryption, working with coherent optics, is going to expand how we build those scale-out network -- scale across networks.
And then scale up is a new market for us, largely today deployed by PCI Express and NVLink switching. But with the Ethernet for scale-up networking ESUN coming out as a spec this year, I think you're going to see a lot more action on that within rack as well. Much more hardware intensive, much more latency, much more defined for high-speed training as well as inference, job completion time, time to first token is all important over there. So this market is multiplying to multiple use cases and is, frankly, redefining the data center as we knew it.
Right. When we think about -- by the way, Todd, I'll get -- I have some questions for you.
Oh, yes, he will get your day in the sun.
Take your time.
I want to first finish the hyperscalers and then we'll get to the important stuff.
Then we will go to [ the enterprise ] campus.
When we look at the hyperscale environment, over the last few years, there was white boxes penetrated to the market. So some companies started with it, Amazon and then Google and even existing customers migrated and expanded the use of white boxes. But as the market goes up to scale up and scale across, talk about your position in this market versus white boxes. And does it mean that your -- if the market -- again, I'm thinking about it conceptually, not about numbers. If the market shrank in the last few years because of white box competition, is the market going to expand again for you now with scale across?
I think the market never shrank by the way. Our total available market has gone from $50 billion to $105 billion is our stated number now. I think by 2030, it will be $150 billion. So there's no shrinking in our market. In the market, there's always segmentation. And anybody build their own PC these days, anybody build their own iPhone these days. Great. You are the candidates for a white box. If you're going to look to build something ultra cheap, don't need a lot of features, white -- we have always coexisted with white box. We will continue to because there's a sort of cost-effective do-it-yourself mindset that will require that.
Now with AI, it's actually scary because you don't want all your AI traffic to be going through across something you do yourself. So we're actually seeing less white box in AI installations and more branded vendors like Arista, like NVIDIA. But that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It does exist when a hyperscaler customer is jointly trying to develop something at the scale-up level and design their own board and almost virtually give it to a CM who can build it like a white box. So it ends up being a joint engineering, not so much do-it-yourself, but manufacture it with the CM type of mindset. So that's going to continue to exist.
Low software, high hardware, highly defined, different margin profile, typically 20% to 30%, so low software content, we've always coexisted with that. It's been with us -- I mean, I can remember the IPO, when we were $2 billion, $3 billion in market cap 2014, where the first question would be, how are you going to compete against the white box? And as you know, we've coexisted and not only competed, but in many cases, they've chosen us over.
There is a new concept that's emerging for us called the blue box, which is hardware building very, very reliable, high signal integrity, hardware is a nontrivial effort. So what we are seeing now actually is the resurgence of a blue box where more and more customers are not only requiring Arista for the high-level software but for the low-level software, we're building a lot of diagnostics at the power supply level, counters, active components, passive components. This is what we've done for the last 10, 15 years because we have fantastic partners in Broadcom and other switch suppliers. They built great chips, but we build the software to twiddle their chips. And so we literally removed the software development kit of our chip vendors and put in our own network diagnostics and platform level software. And so we think a blue box, which is basically a white box, better designed for mission-critical applications will also factor in and is factoring in already.
Got it. I have many more questions for you, but I don't want him to be bored. Todd, you joined recently, what's your mission statement? What are you focusing on? I mean recently.
I am almost a year in.
I know. I know recently in Arista...
He doesn't like it when I call him a newbie.
When you look at the tenure of the length of position of the other managers, you are recent.
That's true, I am an infant on our team. I think, really, my mission comes in twofold. I mean, one is to ensure that the operations at Arista are smooth that we're always able to deliver to the customers that need it and supply everything worldwide. The second, and I think maybe what's most important when we talk about driving growth is fundamentally bringing the mission-critical differentiation that Arista has to every network. We spend a lot of time talking about the hyperscalers, and that's an incredibly important part of our business. But Arista has always stood for mission-critical networks, the most reliable, most available networks in the world.
And 5 years ago, even 10 years ago, when we spent a lot of time talking about it, there was a divide between people who needed mission-critical and the nice-to-have networks. I don't think that exists anymore. Everyone, every network, every enterprise network is mission-critical right now, and my goal is really to bring Arista to every enterprise.
And how do you make the campus business grow bigger? What are the challenges in campus that you don't see in enterprise data centers -- data center enterprise? What do you need to do in order to make it, as Jayshree said, like a giant business, a big business in the future?
Yes. So I think the first is that the breadth of the portfolio goes far beyond switching. It's why we've spent so much time investing in the rest of the network. 7 years ago, Arista invested heavily in the PoE switching and launching our campus network. That was fast-followed by WiFi. And then just recently, in fact, the day I joined, Arista acquired Velo. And that brought in kind of the missing piece with the SD-WAN technology which really completed the portfolio. Then we had enterprise routing, switching, both spine and leaf, all of the WiFi and now SD-WAN to really attack the branch. That's the first.
And bringing that portfolio into the Arista world and really delivering with differentiated quality the way we always do, that is the mission we're on right now. In fact, we've got the leadership here who's driving that.
I think the second piece is looking at the universe of customers. The data center enterprise data center and hyperscale data center, the amount of customers that make up the big chunk of that market are relatively small, maybe like the Global 2000, et cetera. But campus networks span a much larger group. And we are working very hard right now to evolve the go-to-market to be able to reach all of that TAM, not just in the U.S. but around the world. And that expansion to the whole market sort of go-to-market effort is key.
So elaborate on this, what do you need to do with the go-to-market in order to address the broader market?
Yes. I think one really interesting piece is the thought leadership. And we've seen this -- I've seen this even in my one year at Arista exploding the amount that we see Arista being sort of publicly part of the conversation. And in campus, especially, this has been a huge focus, including the exposure that we need from experts around the industry just a couple of weeks ago, the most recent Gartner Magic Quadrant came out and for the first time, Arista was in that leaders' quadrant, which has opened up already so many doors because people, of course, look at the leader quadrant there and look to...
I just want to take a moment to congratulate, it took us 7 years to get there. We went from being a niche vendor to a visionary and finally, the leadership. And by the way, we're the youngest kid there. Everybody else has been around 25 to 40 years. We entered the market over 5 years ago, right? So congratulations.
There's a great graph that shows the trajectory year-over-year.
So the question is what's your value proposition, meaning what do you bring? What do you -- how do you disrupt the market? What do you bring to the market that is different than what the others are offering?
Before he answers that can I tell a story about that?
Yes.
Okay. And then you'll know the value proposition answer. So about 7 years ago, we were in a room like this with 100 customers, most of them were data center customers. And I said, "How many of you think we should get into the campus?" And 30% of them raised their hand and said, "We are tired of all this other software, spaghetti OSs. We want the uniformity. We want what you brought to the data set into the enterprise." But I said, "What about the other 70% of you?" They go, oh, no, no, we don't want that because you'll get distracted and you won't give me a good experience in the data center or AI or whatever, right?
Fast forward 2 years later, they were like, "Where are your campus products? You're late." So there was a burning desire to bring the same stability, availability, reliability, analytics, automation, software-defined capabilities into the campus that we brought to the data center.
Over to you on the differentiators.
Yes. Of course...
You have a great CEO. She articulated her message so well.
We are in a world right now where the entire industry is focused on exactly how quickly they can execute security patches across their portfolio. And with every other vendor, they're looking at 5 or 6 or 8 different OSs, different packs of software that have to be patched and upgraded, et cetera. And Arista, it's one. And the...
Can I tell another story on that? So when the Glasswing project happened and there were 10 vendors invited in, little Arista wasn't in that 10 vendors. It was Microsoft, Anthropic, Google, JPMorgan, Bank of America. I'm sure, were in there. And everybody said, "Where is Arista?" Because they were expecting us because this vendor, again, has the least vulnerabilities and the most robust operating system to be there guiding them. So we didn't ask to be invited, we were pulled in literally to help solve an industry-wide problem. And that kind of tells our role in this, the silent network, I guess.
And it's a moment in time when every IT shop is staring down this enormous challenge with other vendors, 5, 10 different versions. At Arista, it's one. And that's enormously powerful, demonstrating the value of quality and reliability and not just the availability of their apps and their client connectivity, but how we got there through this diligence, year after year, decades after decades of sticking to this core strategy.
The second piece beyond just reliability is looking at sort of the future of how AI and agents are going to manage these networks. And EOS has incredibly, incredibly powerful data platform. In fact, it turns the whole network into a single observability fabric with complete state streaming, every single stage change across the entire network being fed into our cloud, which means that our AI agents are built on the best possible platform. And that is already being seen by users. And that differentiation heads, years and decades of future ahead of it. And it's really built on the shoulders of giants. It's the state streaming, it's the analytics that are used by hyperscalers that they are used by the biggest data centers in the world being brought into the campus space is awesome, and the response is already great.
So a question for both that was referenced on the last conference call, you spoke about decommits of supply chains and...
It's a word that haunts me now. I actually went and looked it up with the dictionary to make sure I got it right. And just for terminology, when Todd is running this worldwide manufacturing organization, and he puts in a request with silicon suppliers optic CPU memory, often 52 weeks ahead of schedule. This is why you see our purchase commitments now at $8.9 billion. There's usually a promise date they give us, just like we give a promise date to our customer. So the definition of a decommit or recommit is when that date moves. And so we've had a lot of dates move. And that's disconcerting because when their date moves, our date moves to our customers, right? And then it changes the lead time.
So nobody in the industry can tell you that they don't have this problem for if they do, they're an ostrich in the sand, and they're not admitting this a problem.
Second thing I would say is, this is a 2-year industry problem. I'm not saying it's a 2-year Arista problem. I'm saying it's a -- at least 2-year industry problem. And those that are stronger and can plan better and do things ahead of time are the winners. Obviously, we're going to not sit for 2 years and feel bad about the situation. We're actively acting on it. The memory situation was horrendous last November. We've gotten ahead of it. We are paying top dollar. It's going to affect some of our margins while we still stay in the band of 62% to 64% gross margin like we've advertised, but we dealt with it. So we will deal with it, and we will come out of it just like we did COVID, the lawsuit, or this one. But it's no fun for the industry and in my view, the strong will get stronger.
I'll just add, there's surging demand right now. And we see from our customer base upside and upside and upside on the forecast. And that means we have to push on the supply chain to be able to serve that, to be able to drive material needed. And this industry phenomenon. It's just how much upside can we deliver on? I mean it's putting pressure on it, for sure.
So 2 years ago, 1 year ago, we spoke about memory, memory supply constraints. What's the situation of supply constraints now? Did it expand to other areas? What other areas? Like talk about the environment and what is the gating factor for you to grow faster?
Let's just talk -- let's just get the time frame. That memory situation was like 4 months ago. Things are moving quick -- things are moving quickly. And it's going to be across the technology space. I mean we see these capital budgets coming down the pipe that are enormous. People are building out massive, massive data center capabilities around the world. It's not just memory. It's going to be in the wafers and silicon, not just in the high-end silicon. We see it in power ICs. We see compute and CPUs. We started to see surging demand on the CPU as well as the GPU side. A lot of these roads lead back to the same advanced-process fabs. In Taiwan, there's only really one vendor there. And so we are -- when roads lead back to TSMC, there's going to be capacity constraints.
And I think even there, the shortages are really not just at the wafer level, but at the substrate level. Because what's happening is the material shortages here is as you start to build more complex processes with chip-on-wafer then you got to build fab capacity for 2-nanometer, 3, 5, 7, but we still have all the processes that we need to address, right? So it's sort of an across-the-board material shortage that pops up like a game of whack-a-mole. First it's memory then it's -- like you said, optics, CPUs, PCBs, you name it. And holistically addressing this so that we can ship a product in time has been a challenge.
Having said that, I just want to be super clear on one thing, we're going to do everything to solve these problems in quarters, not in years. And any delays we have this year, doesn't mean our orders or our customers go away? It just means we have to address it next year.
Yes. Got it. One question, I want to understand it conceptually. Deferred revenues grew substantially in the last few years. I mean this is -- it's a reflection of the environment. What -- how does it evolve going forward? And I explained what I mean by that, I don't mean orders. I mean what happens when a big customer finishes to build a data center? What happens when -- because these are joint data centers. So what should we expect with deferred revenues to do like step-down and revenue jump when someone finishes a data center? Or is there a smooth kind of line to the deferred?
That's a really good question. And again, history is always an indicator of what might happen in the future. So I'll look at some history first. We had a cloud super cycle back in the 2016 through '18 where deferred wasn't as big, but neither was the CapEx, but it was easily 10% to 15% of our revenue because people were putting in Neocloud data centers, our products were new, they were going through 100-gig back then super cycle, sometimes it was a use case in the leaf, sometimes it was in spine, sometimes it is at the edge. So this went on for 3, 4 years.
And then right around 2018, '19, when COVID happened, all these use cases became more mature. And I mean, COVID just put a lot of things into standstill, but you actually saw a deferred not only go flat, but pretty close to 0 in that time frame. So I'm not saying we'll go close to 0 because this is a much larger number, and we -- there's more shock absorbers. But you can expect that deferred, which is in my view, all-time high right now, will start to slowly flatten as these use cases become mature as the products become mature, and there will be this gap between new AI centers and old AI centers. So I don't expect deferred to remain at elevated levels forever. Eventually, they'll come out as revenue. And as the cycle matures, it will be a new set of use cases, maybe in scale up or scale across. So I think we are at an all-time high now. And it could get higher or lower, but I think more likely, it will flatten.
Got it. Another question I had, which is very specific about a single customer, but you disclose it. You disclosed that Microsoft is your largest customer. Last year, they did not do Ethernet. They did -- I mean, large scale, right? They did mostly InfiniBand. But this year, they are. And they don't use white boxes. You are their vendor. The interesting part is when I look at your disclosure, they grew 26% without having you in the back end, in the front end, they grew 26%. So what happens this year, meaning, what happens when you start to see Ethernet deployment in the back end? And what happens to the front end? Does it -- is there a parallel growth in the front end as well?
Yes. This is a question you keep asking that I've never done full justice to answering, which is like, hey, if you're growing in AI, why is your core business not? And I think it's important to look at these things not across quarters or even a year, but across multiple years, right? So as you rightly pointed out, in that particular hyperscaler, but in general, a lot of upgrades were going on in the front end between '22 and '25 right? And -- but today, if the customer has a $1, they're not refreshing the front end as fast. Guess what they're doing, they're putting all the investments in the back end. Now that doesn't mean it will last forever because once they finish the back end, they're going to put pressure on the front, right? And you got to do another upgrade cycle there. So there's this sinusoidal wave where -- when the back end goes up, the front end doesn't so much. And when the front end goes up, the back end doesn't so much. In a particular use case. And you multiply that times the number of customers, you get the picture.
So when you see our front-end slowdown, it means they already built it or they're focused elsewhere. And by the way, there was a period of time where they were neither focused on back end or front end, they were just getting GPUs from NVIDIA, right? And that was the largest bill they had to pay for. So I think if you look at it over a period of time, it all evens out. But if you look at it at a point of time, I remember saying at one time that the front end today is 2:1 over the back. I have to correct that statement now because now it's looking more like 1:1 because our back end is growing so fast.
Got it. So the question is also there is a cycle, and I don't know how to refer to it, but there is also a cycle of technology at the semiconductor level. So when Broadcom releases a new chip, right, like Tomahawk 6, is it a tailwind or a headwind? Does it give opportunities for new players, white boxes? Or because you're so close to Broadcom, does it give you the tailwind to actually grow even faster? What happens upon release of new technology?
I think any new technology tends to drive a benefit to Arista specifically because Ethernet as a standard is becoming kind of de facto standard, especially scale-out, but in the rest of the market as well. And as Ethernet continues to demonstrate leadership in the space, then Arista becomes like the natural choice. We lead the standards. We drive sort of the state of the art around that. As we've seen this kind of rapid advance from 800G to 1.6T. We're starting to even look at 3.2T. Like you've got people looking at the capabilities that, that provides and really considering building out faster and faster data center. So it just opens up more and more TAM if anything, accelerates Arista growth.
And just to add to that, if you agree with Todd, I think the beauty of our business is, while we are going to enter this 1.6T refresh cycle, we still got an awful lot of 400G and 800G going on as well, right? It's not like they died and it's either or. So we're actually seeing the benefit of a double cycle where one speed is taking off at 400, 800 and then you're layering upon since I like desserts, a multi-layer cake, and the 1.6T comes on top of that. So it's definitely an accelerator to the overall speed refreshes we're going through.
I want to ask you about the part of the number that we don't talk about, and I'll explain it in a second. So we talk a lot about hyperscalers. We talk a lot about campus. If I remove these 2 from your numbers, there is a 40%, 50% in the middle. And that is enterprise data centers. Now I have the luxury of covering both software and networking. And in the last cycle that we have seen now, I'm seeing the early bird that enterprises are investing in AI cybersecurity. And that is the prerequisite for investing in the network because you have to invest first in cybersecurity. Palo Alto reported it yesterday, Fortinet before. You can see clearly, AI is a driver for cybersecurity.
The question I have is from your guidance, this part of the network doesn't grow that much, meaning less than historical, but that's part of your conservatism. So I will say, I will add to you in line with historical numbers, 5%, 7%. What happens in the future? What happens to enterprise data centers? What are the drivers? And you're greatly positioned there. Is there any other -- like is there a market share discussion even? Or it's not about the market share, it's about market growth?
Jayshree mentioned this, cyclical nature of the spend. So as people start to shift maybe big focus on to AI than the traditional data center might slow that year and then back. But there's enormous growth opportunity here in 2 ways. Number one is we continue to see ourselves picking up significant use cases, specific important franchises across existing customer base in the enterprise. No doubt about that. But there are parts of this market that we have yet to reach. Arista is the market leader here, but we still have an enormous amount of TAM that we can go after, and we're seeing growth internationally. We're starting to see big university wins. We're continuing to pursue the big kind of traditional financial wins, but the verticals that we are starting to penetrate in real ways are amazing. Manufacturing, retail, university, et cetera. And these are big data center build-outs that are important. And so this kind of pursuit of the enterprise data center continues. And I know it's easy for it to get overlooked, but there is enormous opportunity. We're still reaching the rest of the market.
We're gaining enterprise logos. We're definitely gaining enterprise market share. And as you already know, we're the #1 in high-performance switching. But I think we have to be patient about it. It doesn't happen as fast. We don't get the instant gratification we do in the cloud and AI cycle because think about it, an enterprise data center is building and then it's usually a depreciation or a usage of that data center for at least 7 years, 8 years, 9 years, even if they put the wrong technology and we got to wait, right? So we do best in greenfield situations. We do pretty well in brownfield situations. We don't do as well in legacy risk-off situations where the enterprise customers just going to sit there with their assets and spread it out for a while. And you see all 3. But I think over the long term, and as you know, Arista has been built with our software and hardware excellence brick by brick, this brick shall come, too. It's just not the first use case, it will come a little bit later.
Got it. I want to talk about competition. So we -- 10 years ago, we spoke about competition with Cisco. We don't talk about it anymore because there's nothing to say. But the question is competition with NVIDIA because we do see NVIDIA growing in networking. Can you articulate how you compete with NVIDIA?
Well, I think it's one of those classic co-opetition issues where we are very grateful to NVIDIA because our AI business is almost always tying in to, 80% of the time anyway, into NVIDIA GPUs. So there's no way they're a competitor to us in the compute space. The more compute capacity they deploy, the more we can do with networking. But obviously, this tendency to build a vertical stack with NVIDIA, and there have been many examples of customers where the customers want to go with a horizontal best-of-breed network from Arista, but end up going with NVIDIA because of the customer gets a better bundled strategy, better support, better availability of the GPUs, et cetera. So there's a natural part of the TAM that's just not available to us because it's an NVIDIA vertical TAM.
Now having said that, again, we got to be patient here because I think today, it's largely NVIDIA GPUs. But we're very excited about the other AI accelerators that are coming on, both in training and inference. It hasn't gone unnoticed that we love the TPUs and the Google architecture that started way back in 2017. And naturally, we have a lot of opportunities to connect directly or indirectly to it. AMD and the MI Series is, again, we have deployed a lot of successful networks already together and every customer is looking for an alternate accelerator strategy.
There's a whole range of inference accelerators that are coming out. You guys saw the Cerebras IPO, but many of them are being built in-house by the hyperscalers, which is, again, giving us a lot of rack opportunity. So we love NVIDIA when we connect to their GPUs, but we love all the accelerators and frontier models to give us that diverse one network for all the diverse XPUs, if you will.
The one thing I might add there is there's also a story of building standards-based networking. Networking time after time after time has been an area where open standards have won the day eventually. And we're seeing that across the board. NVIDIA has some Ethernet technology available as well, but Arista leads the way. We lead the way in the standards. We lead the way, pushing the limits of the technology. And in the fullness of time, I think that becomes a driver for us.
Right. If I look -- if I start to try to divide the market between GPUs of AMD or others and between GPUs of NVIDIA, do you have -- do you think you have higher market share when the GPUs are not NVIDIA, when it's something else. And the reason why I'm asking it is because that part of the market is actually growing very fast.
Yes. The short answer to that is yes, because there is no vertical bundling going on. There is a best-of-breed approach over there. Arista is naturally the first and often only choice. And there's so much risk in this deployment, the last thing they want to do is go explore some speculative things. So yes, it is the fastest-growing market for us as well.
It's also when we get off of the NVIDIA GPU then the scale up part of the market becomes available, right? And that is a whole piece of the AI space we don't play in.
Okay. My last question, I don't leave much time for Q&A, but I wanted to cover it: optical integration. Your competitor, Cisco, does have an optical capabilities in-house. What is your philosophy, first of all, about optical integration, owning assets versus partnering with assets. And take it from there.
Look, our philosophy is definitely to work with the best-of-breed optical ecosystem. We don't have to own all pieces of it. There's a lot of physics there, as you know, and there's a lot of technology with lasers and co-packaged optics and Andy and the team introduced our XPO, which is the latest and greatest for pluggable optics for 1.6, 3.2T. So we are big fans of optics because wherever we sit, we have to connect to them, right? And it wouldn't come as a surprise to you that we worked very closely with Acacia before Cisco acquired it and continue to. There are good coherent optics vendor for sure, we see them.
Having said that, I think Arista's position is not always to be the revenue provider or the product provider for optics, but integrate into the optics really well, which can be integrated into our boards in some cases or work with pluggable optics and provide the right MACsec and root cause analysis works for them, including managing, all of that capabilities. But because that is such a specialized best-of-breed type of companies, just like security, we don't pretend to be that, but we want to enable that at a system level.
Great. Sorry, I took most of your time. But is there any question from the audience? We have a microphone. No.
Well, you took all their questions, looks like. Thanks for coming for the first early morning session here. I appreciate it.
Thank you, Jayshree. And thanks, Todd.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Bank of America 2026 Global Technology Conference
Arista Networks, Inc. — Bank of America 2026 Global Technology Conference
Arista positioniert sich als zentraler Profiteur des AI-Booms und als wachsender Campus‑Anbieter, bleibt aber kurzfristig durch Lieferketten‑ und Kapazitätsengpässe limitiert.
📊 Kernbotschaft
- Wachstumsfokus: Kernwachstum treibt AI‑Backends (AI Fabric: Scale‑up, Scale‑out, Scale‑across) und Campus‑Netzwerke; Hyperscaler bleiben wichtig, aber Enterprise‑TAM wächst.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- AI‑Strategie: Ethernet‑basiertes AI Fabric soll Infiniband ersetzen und deckt Rack‑, Multi‑Rack‑ und DCI‑Use‑Cases ab; ESUN‑Spec (Ethernet für Scale‑up) steht an.
- Campus‑Push: Komplettes Portfolio (Switching, Wi‑Fi, SD‑WAN, Routing) plus Platzierung in Gartners Leader‑Quadrant öffnet großes Enterprise‑TAM.
- Produktposition: „Blue box“‑Konzept (hochintegrierte, geprüfte Hardware plus proprietäre Diagnostik) als Gegenstück zu White‑/Commodity‑Boxen.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- TAM‑Update: Management nennt ein Total Addressable Market von ~$105 Mrd. heute, potenziell $150 Mrd. bis 2030.
- Supply‑Commit: Kaufverpflichtungen werden mit $8.9 Mrd. genannt; Memory‑Engpässe haben sich teilweise entschärft, Margen weiterhin in Zielband ~62–64%.
- Produktstand: Produktionseinführungen in „4 von 4“ hyperscalern bestätigt; Scale‑up/ESUN als neuer Beschleuniger.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Zyklus‑Nachhaltigkeit: Investor fragte nach Dauer des Hyperscaler‑CapEx; Management sieht mehrjährige bis Jahrzehnte‑Wirkung, aber mit Zyklen und Peaks.
- Supply‑Risiken: Engpässe verschieben Termine (Decommits); Broader‑Materialknappheit (Wafers, Power‑ICs, Optics) kann kurzfristig Wachstum bremsen.
- Wettbewerb & Ökosystem: White‑box‑Druck in manchen Segmenten bleibt, aber bei AI weniger präsent; NVIDIA‑Vertikalität reduziert adressierbares Best‑of‑Breed‑TAM, andere Accelerator‑Player öffnen Chancen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Kurzfristig: Starkes strukturelles Wachstumspotenzial durch AI und Campus, aber Lieferketten‑ und Kapazitätsengpässe können Umsätze und Margen temporär dämpfen.
- Mittelfristig: Arista ist gut positioniert (Software‑Centric EOS, Blue‑Box‑Ansatz, Standardsführung); erfolgreiche Go‑to‑Market‑Ausweitung ins Campus/Enterprise kann signifikanten Zusatzumsatz bringen.
Arista Networks, Inc. — 46th Annual William Blair Growth Stock Conference
1. Question Answer
My name is Sebastien Naji. I'm the research analyst here at William Blair, who covers Arista Networks. I am required to inform you that for a complete list of research disclosures or potential conflicts of interest, please visit our website at williamblair.com.
I'm very happy to have Chantelle, the CFO of Arista, as well as Rudy, VP of Investor Advocacy, with us here today. And I think Chantelle will begin with a quick presentation overview of the company, and then we'll jump into some questions.
Sure. Are we good to go? Great. Okay, so good afternoon. Thank you for spending your lunch half hour with us. We definitely appreciate it. It's very nice to see you. For those who haven't met, I'm Chantelle Breithaupt, CFO of Arista.
And so just a couple of slides to orient. Many of you know our story, but just in case you haven't seen us in a while or are new, I just wanted to give you an overview. So here, we're 12 years past IPO, and here we are guiding $11.5 billion this year, incredible journey from a technology perspective. Originally started with the high performance compute getting into hyperscalers, cloud, enterprise data center and now we're talking all things that are AI. An incredible journey being $200 billion market cap, 12 years post IPO, and we feel we're just getting started. So thanks for being here with us.
Very happy to show different sections in the sense of where we're recognized by Gartner. So you can see from left to right, some of the Gartner positioning in the top right quadrant. 2025 for data center switching, 2026, just happy to see this here that we're now there for enterprise wired and wireless. Very happy to see that just getting into the campus and enterprise wired and wireless LAN. And 2024 with the acquisition of VeloCloud also being in the Magic Quadrant for SD-WAN. So I feel like we're making ground in a lot of different aspects of networking and very proud to have these positions to show you.
Why do over 10,000 customers choose Arista? They can see the robustness of our quality and our product and our ability to serve the customer extensible performance and platform. We don't like vendor lock-in. We like best-of-breed choices and are happy to compete in that environment. And then just having this really great real-time telemetry and AIOps that we will get into a little bit through the Q&A, I think, with Sebastien. That really makes us a great total cost of ownership choice when you're thinking about getting the highest utilizations from your XPUs. And it's not just how we feel this is the customer representation. So I think you'll find very few in the industry who can say they have an 89% score on NPS. And you can read some of the comments on the bottom, how they interact with our company.
Very delighted in the response time, very delighted in the technical capability of the team they interact with and just the approach that we're there until the end. Until they get to a performance and outcome they are looking for. So very proud to have that and congratulations to Ashwin and his team for getting the company to that position.
We talked at Analyst Day in September of last year. Hopefully, some of you were there about the growth in our TAM. I started in January 2024. Just before that, we were at about a $60 billion TAM, then $70 billion at the New York event we had in June 2024 and then Analyst Day updated that from $70 billion to $105 billion, so some pretty great growth there. And you can see at the bottom the different categories. Of course, a lot of it is driven by AI and data center, but also some great aspects that we see now that we have our campus portfolio underway. We're working on the next revision of this. And so stay tuned as we look at even a larger TAM amount in the different categories and the nomenclature that we'll use going forward. We also like to position our incredible platform and portfolio over what we call centers of data.
So we have the AI center, campus center, data center and the WAN center -- SD-WAN. And it's just to show the breadth of optionality that we provide to our customers. It's really we have a portfolio of products in what use case are they being used for across the different segments of our customers. So very proud to have this to get to their outcomes and their cost of ownership that they're looking for. And now we have this new nomenclature. We're talking about scale up, scale out, scale across, and I know we'll talk about that, Sebastien. But just to say, we're ready for this. We've been planning for this. We'll be working on it and very well positioned, I think, with our customers on this kind of co-engineering journey. What are they looking for from the largest hyperscaler and AI customer down to the enterprise.
From a revenue growth perspective, I think it's important to look at the growth that we've seen. We finished Q1 results in the sense of 35% growth. And if you look at the combined growth in the P&L 35% plus what it goes into deferred, which means it's shipped and invoiced and cash collected. You could say, basically, it was 54% growth. And you can see the subsequent quarters beforehand in the sense of where we've seen the growth combined between P&L and deferred revenue growth. And just to remind you of our guidance for this year, we did call out our guidance again, looking at 28% growth, $11.5 billion, maintained gross margin, which we're very proud to do in this kind of environment where it's a little tougher from a supply chain perspective. World-class, I would say, operating margin for a company like ours of 46%. We have given ourselves accountability goals when it comes to AI and campus. And you can see the growth in AI and campus goals versus our last year performance, pretty healthy growth for both of those sectors.
If you think about $3.5 billion of AI at $11.5 billion, a high percentage of our revenue is coming from AI. And then we've raised our CAGR for '25 to '28 to be 20-plus percent growth before that was mid-teens. So hopefully, you'll see these kind of signs of the demand we're seeing and how we're showing them through our guidance. And I think now we can go to the questions, Sebastien. Okay. Thank you.
Great. Thank you, Chantelle. I mean, maybe my first question, I wanted to start off very broadly. Arista really made its name over the last 10 years, filling this need for high-performance networking at the hyperscalers. Today, as we enter the AI era, you really hear from all the networking vendors about how strong their businesses have become. Cisco, NVIDIA, they're all talking about huge amounts of growth. So as we enter this AI era, how would you talk about Arista's maybe right to win or how it really differentiates itself versus all these other networking providers that are also talking about really good momentum from AI.
Yes. I think -- so thank you for the question because I think it's important to look at apples-to-apples in this conversation. But my leading answer in this is that we're -- I think Arista is very well positioned for AI. We've been waiting our whole 12 years post IPO for this moment. So I think all of the innovation we've seen up until now and the way we interact with the market leads us to be very well suited. And I'll give you some examples and Rudy, obviously, if you have anything, you can chime in. So let me start first with networking for AI, and then I'll talk about AI for networking.
So networking for AI, if we look at our product portfolio, some of the things I just showed here in the presentation, we announced the 800-gig Etherlink portfolio in June 2025. And so we've had that for coming up to a year, and we were very happy to see that AI was a great use case for 800 gig, and we were ready. And so I think if you take that 800 gig kind of Etherlink portfolio, combined with EOS, which is -- which was an operating system and software, which allows great utilization of the XPUs and all the performance criteria that we're looking for. And you look at the sense and the fact of all the experience we have with some of the largest, most complicated deployments.
There's a reason that we're currently the #1 branded vendor for front-end and back-end AI networking. And I think as long as we continue to innovate in the ecosystem, so we've been leaders in open standards when it comes to UEC, the Ultra Ethernet Consortium. We've been working on. You saw Andy announce XPO as a technology and working on ESUN, so we're working with the ecosystem there. And I think probably most importantly, combined with those things is that we offer networking that allows flexibility.
We're agnostic when it comes to the NIC, we're agnostic when it comes to the XPU, we're agnostic when it comes to the optics choice. And so that allows -- because every customer wants to do it differently to reach their goal, and we're happy to do things differently with each customer. And I think that will continue to innovate. And if we keep that pace, we absolutely, I think, have a right to win if we execute with the customer. So that's networking for AI.
AI for networking. Now we're talking about all the things we're doing to help -- AI help networking, and we have this great suite of products called AIOps. It includes AVA, which is our virtual assistant. We have agents and we have insights that we provide that sit on top of NetDL. And so when you combine all of these things, I think we are the best positioned AI pure-play networking company when you're talking about the networking data center part of it.
All right. Great. That's helpful. And then I want to maybe ask about what I think a lot of investors are curious to talk about, which is in your most recent earnings call, you started to talk about more acute supply tightness, having to manage very longer lead times. I mean, could you maybe talk a little bit about how you are managing that supply and whether you see lack of supply potentially being a headwind to your growth, either near term or even over the next couple of years?
Yes. I think it's a good question. I think you're starting to see more companies at least speak a bit more openly about -- the supply chain has some constraints, but it has no constraint in the sense of us reaching our FY '26 guidance and we'll continue to take quarter-by-quarter what that could mean for future guidance calls as we go through this year and next year. I think from the perspective of looking at the different arrangements we have. So we deal with some of the biggest suppliers and have great arrangements and histories with -- history with them, along with working with our largest customers. And so I think we're well positioned in the sense of when it comes to availability, I consider it more about when, not if, and so if you think about a lot of our customer conversations, our 12 months, excuse me, in design, 12 to 18 months into design, the 52-week lead time we have on average, I think we'll serve that well. You've seen our purchase commitments go up pretty substantially to lean into the next 52 weeks coming into next year.
So I think we're managing it well. I think where we're talking about the constraint. The constraint could come in if someone's asking to have something not within the lead time that's material. How do we work within the ecosystem to have that kind of burst demand. I think that's the part we're just acknowledging it's not as easy as it was but we'll do everything we can with our arrangements to have that. We're seeing incredible demand. We just want to make sure people understand within the lead times, that's okay, but perhaps between a burst of demand. We just need to think a little differently how we can serve that.
And that supply tightness, I mean, is it really broad-based? Or is it more acute in chips and wafers and memory...
It's a bit of Whack-a-Mole. It's a bit of a Whack-a-Mole. I think that memory was the first one, and I think we started talking about November last year, and I think we've gotten to a good spot on memory. I think other components come and go. I think that from a perspective of -- it's not just one vendor or one supplier or one product. It really depends on the time and what's happening with a specific deployment. And so I think it's not bespoke, but it's not generalized. So I'd hate to generalize too much across one category. It really depends on timing and innovation and what our customers are looking to deploy. So from that perspective. Now on the other hand, we've actually reduced campus lead times. So our campus lead times are now down to 6 weeks, which I think absolutely gives us an advantage as we start to go after the campus market share.
Got it. And then I think the other area that investors have a lot of interest is in this product deferred balance that has really continued to grow over the last 12 to 18 months. And my estimate is that it's around $3.5 billion, $3.6 billion, which is way larger than it's historically been. Could you maybe unpack a few things first. Is that mostly driven by some of these AI products, these new SKUs. And then you've talked in the past about you have to hit an acceptance criteria for that to flow into revenue. What does that acceptance criteria entail? Is it the networking hardware is plugged in? Is it when the GPU rack has a certain utilization? Maybe just help us understand how we should think about that deferred product starting to flow through into the income statement?
Yes. I think that -- so absolutely, so the concept and construct of deferred has been with Arista since basically we started doing cloud deliveries. And so -- but what you're seeing now is it's the same construct, just much bigger market and deals, right? So during cloud -- and we have some information in our earnings deck, if you go to our Investor Relations website, but you see there, there was like a cloud cycle, and now we're in this AI cycle and the AI cycle definitely surpasses from just pure dollars, the cloud cycle during that time frame. So same construct, bigger dollars flowing through and more complicated. So it is new use cases. It is new products and sometimes new customers. And so from that perspective, things are arranged with the customer where we have to meet certain criteria, acceptance criteria.
So it means it's shipped and it's invoiced and cash is collected, but it is in deferred until those milestones are reached. Those milestones can take 12 to 18 months, sometimes a little bit longer for the most complicated largest deployments. And it could be a variety of things. It can be by site, it can be certain engineering things that we've promised to co-work with the customer. It could be that, from their perspective, a certain design element has been reached. And so there are different -- again, back to every customer does it differently, but the premise is the same until we're sure that it's up and running the way we have agreed to, that's when we take the revenue.
So it is mostly AI that's in deferred right now because that's the largest use case we're seeing. And it's a great example of demand, but customers also enjoy that we have skin in the game until they're seeing great performance outcomes.
And then I think you started to talk about -- historically, you've had 2 major cloud titan customers M&M as you guys like to refer to Microsoft and Meta. More recently, you talked about expanding that to 3 customers with 10% plus, maybe even 4 customers over time. What is driving that increased diversification and some of that traction you're seeing with hyperscalers that maybe historically haven't worked as much with Arista?
Yes. I think that we're absolutely -- as we get older as a company or further in our growth cycle as a company, we are looking to diversify. It just takes some time, right? So we have customers A and B now that we call them, we're using a letters to denote now that we expect more of them to come in. I think that -- so there's a few things that I can drive at. One is, AI is a great use case. But generally, anywhere that we're switching to Ethernet networking being an option, that's where we're going to start to see where we can have some more business that we didn't have before.
Now obviously, to get to this greater than 10% customer at the -- I'm sorry, I can't see you guys, the range we're talking about, they're not coming in with just one deal and becoming over 10% customers. So they have some existing business, and they're getting to over that 10%. And so it can be companies that are using Ethernet that didn't use it before. It could be new kinds of customers coming to market in some of these segments you've talked about, maybe the new cloud sovereign AI, these sorts of new customers that are coming in. So we'll wait and see where we report at the end of the year. But we're fairly confident that third one will come in. The fourth one, as we mentioned on the call with Jayshree, we'll have to see exactly where that lands.
Got it. Great. And I think I'd be remiss if I didn't ask you a question about white box.
Sure, yes.
So we'll ask you a question on what are you seeing in terms of the competitive dynamics there? I think over the last year, Arista has done a good job of kind of laying out your blue box strategy and your differentiation there. But given that a lot of these white box vendors are reporting really, really strong results. Are you seeing any increased traction at your customers for white box? Are there certain sockets where white box makes sense and others where you have to go with Arista?
Yes. I think -- I don't think anything has changed in the dynamic in the sense of which use case is a white box use case versus a branded vendor. I don't think that has changed at all. And so that remains the same, and that's a boring answer to that question. I think -- so that remains the same. I think what you're seeing is potentially when you're talking about these growth vectors Sebastien, it's okay. At a point in time, you ship, you drop it on a dock and you're done. Okay. Well, that's recognized right away. So that feels good in that moment because all that's coming through at that point in time. So there's probably a difference in the sense of the timing deployment and how that comes through because you have to also take into account our model, which has the deferred. But we're not seeing anything that changes in the use case. It's the same -- and we appreciate the dynamic.
And so I think that we understand there's a spot for white box in the deployments, there's a spot for branded vendor. And sometimes that choice for very select customers because you have to be able to have the team to support a NOS on a white box environment or a blue box environment. So you're not talking smaller companies that can usually do this because then you're talking a CapEx versus OpEx trade-off, it's usually not for free, right? And so from that perspective, we find it's very few customers that can even attempt to get into that scenario from a just a cost ROI perspective. So we don't think anything has changed. We don't think there's anything moving differently. If anything, we would probably double down that it's becoming more complex and the utilization of the XPUs is becoming more important and critical, and that would be in our favor.
And maybe staying on the theme of competition, NVIDIA has really emerged over the last couple of years as a real networking competitor. They talked, I think, on the last earnings call about a tripling of their Ethernet business. How do you go about competing with someone like NVIDIA, particularly given that they have an ability to potentially bundle their networking with their compute and all the other parts of the stack that they're selling. And where do you really see that you differentiate when you're talking to customers versus the NVIDIA spectrum portfolio?
Yes. So first, just so we are completely thankful to NVIDIA for basically opening up this GPU market, and so we're very thankful because we participate in connecting those GPUs. So it's not all just competitive relationship between us. There is a partnership relationship that way. But if you get down just to networking, the type of networking we do, we have to be careful we're looking at apples-to-apples, and then I'll get to the competitive differentiation.
So Ethernet growth can also have NICs, it can have NVLink, it can have other parts that aren't part of what Arista would compete in. So I would encourage everyone to look at the apples-to-apples comparison growth and see what that growth is. And I don't think it's the same growth number trajectory you were just mentioning. And I think that aside, so how can we compete because we can speak to what Arista can do. I think, again, with that phenomenal portfolio optionality, what we can do is compete on the options you have to have to build best-of-breed, the agnostic capability to bring in other XPUs, et cetera, and the best-of-breed usually is a good choice for our customers. They want to have the optionality.
So if they're open to that, we have a good chance of winning. I think that in the sense of if you look at the other factors we talked about, things like EOS and AIOps, those are also things that they're delighted to have. And sometimes we see customers get into a vertical stack and then come back later realizing they want to go best-of-breed. So maybe it's not the first time, but even the second time that we see them. So there's lots of options where we can see them and come back to them. But those are some of these scenarios where we absolutely can win for the networking part.
Yes, that's really helpful. And then I wanted to ask maybe about a longer-term trend, which is this shift to co-packaged optics that everyone is starting to talk more and more about. And then I think relatedly, Arista right before the optical conference in March, introduced this concept of an XPO pluggable cable. Could you maybe just talk about across both co-packaged and the XPO cable? What exactly is Arista's opportunity? Is there a way for you to monetize these trends? Is any of this a threat, particularly the CPO aspect.
Rudy, do you want to take this?
Yes, sure. So in general, optics are not a big part of our revenue, right? So we certify and kind of resell optics, but it's not a big part of our revenue. So really, our work in optics has really been about moving the industry forward. If you go back 10 years, we introduced OSFP, which is kind of getting to the end of its usefulness, if you will, right? And so we were really ready for a next generation. Now when you get to that next generation, you certainly have one option, which is going down the co-packaged route. Or can you extend pluggables. And so what XPO allows you to do is extend pluggables and comes with the benefits that when it's pluggable, it's a lot easier for customers to service them in the field. It also uses the same supply chain that OSFP has used for the last 10-plus years, right? So there's significant advantages there. And one thing that I think sometimes goes unnoticed with XPO is it shrinks the physical size of the networking stack, right, by reducing that front panel density or I guess, increasing the density and therefore, shrinking the size.
What that does is it opens up a whole bunch of other options for doing things like scale up, right, where you can do things like copper for longer, where you can do things like micro LEDs or RF. So frankly, solutions that are more efficient from a power perspective, from a dollar perspective, then going down a purely optical front. Now perhaps we get to a point where co-packaged optics are inevitable. We are absolutely agnostic to it, right? Like we don't believe that co-packaged optics is a negative for us, we -- if anything, the engineering involved with co-packaged optics and making it successful, it's going to be super important. But I think what we're hearing from customers is, a, delay co-packaged as long as possible. That's where I think XPO comes in. And when you do go down the road of co-packaged make it as open as possible because what customers don't want to do is be locked into a single supplier, a single vendor.
Because today, they're not buying their optics from their switching maker. They're not buying their optics from even the chip maker. They're going out to Asia and buying the optics directly from the supplier. And that's given them tremendous leverage. They don't want to be stuck in a place where they're having to deal with margin stacking and things of that nature. There's both tactical reasons and financial reasons why I think we're trying to delay as an industry CPO for as long as possible. And that's kind of what we hear from customers. But when CPO is ready and necessary, we feel very, very well equipped to be there.
Got it. And is it right to think that a CPO chip just becomes part of your bill of materials that you build around essentially?
Yes, pretty much, yes. With -- again, like I think the bar for failure in the CPO switch is far higher, right? Because if a switch fails with CPO, essentially the switch has to be taken down. Today, with a pluggable, if one optic fails, you take that one optic out of commission, which means whatever workload is plugged into that, not the entire switch. So if anything, I think the hardware design, the reliability that we've done so well with over the last 20 years is going to become even more paramount. So we feel very well equipped for that. But customers do want us to try and delay that inevitability, if you will as long as possible.
Right, right. And then maybe on the theme of maybe longer-term risks or threats, Google uses a lot of optical switching inside of their TPU racks. What -- are you concerned at all that you could see more and more hyperscalers move to optical switching? And if so, does that present a risk to the packet level switching that you guys are so good at?
I'll take that one as well. I mean, I think what we've seen is optical switching has a very specific niche use case, right? Google, as you pointed out, has been the most -- the biggest proponent of it. But if you've seen some of the recent announcements from Google, I think even they're admitting that once you go beyond a certain scale, really go beyond a scale-up domain where you're dealing with a fairly uniform kind of workloads, right? You have to go Ethernet because that per packet switching capability, the ability to decide, okay, where does this packet go as you look at each packet and look at the header is tremendously useful, right? With optical switching, what happens, you're literally pointing the mirror in a different direction, right, as you want to move stuff around.
So it doesn't really work well for any kind of real-time decision-making on, okay, what this package should go there. So as workloads get more heterogeneous, as workloads get more -- have higher entropy, really, over time, Ethernet has always won, right? So we don't feel like that's a threat. And like I said, the recent Virgo announcements are, if anything, a testament that while OCS has a space in the network, it's more confined to these narrower use cases. And once you want to go beyond a certain scale and beyond certain types of workloads, really, I think, Ethernet won that battle time and time again over the last 50 years.
Sort of simple optical path, simple connections...
Correct. Point-to-point where you're not expecting to change things dynamically on the fly.
Yes. Okay. And then maybe here in the last few minutes, I could turn the questions a little bit to the enterprise business.
Sure.
You guys closed this acquisition of VeloCloud, which is an SD-WAN technology about a year ago. Could you maybe just give us an update on where you are with that integration? And if you started to see any success in cross-selling either the VeloCloud customers to more Arista products or vice versa?
Yes, we are -- I am personally very happy on how VeloCloud has come along. I think that it was the largest acquisition we had done as a company and a lot of great work went in to making that happen and the integration has gone well. We are functionally integrated. So everyone's kind of gone and joined the teams that they recognize functionally. But most importantly, we've had great conversations with the customers. I think the customers are very excited that now it's part of the Arista family. It's part of -- in the sense of the care and attention we can give it, given we're 5,000 people who focus on the portfolio and networking. So I think the customers have received it well. They've given us great feedback in the things they love us to focus on, and we have a team dedicated to working through those. So I think it's gone as well as expected and very happy to have the team there, a very talented team, and they've stayed with us.
So I think that's a testament that they're enjoying their time and happy to be part of what we do as a company and our culture. For cross-selling, I think that given it's just coming up to a year, I think it's pretty good progress. We've gone through all the functional integration of everything from quote to cash and getting all the renewals and licenses sorted out. So that was a lot of just transactional work. Now the real customers of the cross-selling are happening. We're seeing it in a few of the enterprise segment, and it's both ways. It's VeloCloud into existing Arista customers and Arista into customers we did not have before. So it's good customer acquisition. But it's still early days, but definitely a pipeline is building. And I would say that's on track with what our expectations were from a deal perspective.
Got it, right.
Two things I would maybe add there as well, right? One is, it has opened up a new route to market through the service providers because they had a pretty robust service provider business as well. And then the other thing is from a campus RFP perspective, often SD-WAN is becoming a checkbox requirement, right? And so having that whole portfolio allows us to bid on campus. So even if it's not a direct upsell, cross-sell, it allows us to bid on a project that maybe a year back, we would have been disqualified because we didn't have an SD-WAN solution.
That's great. Okay. And then maybe just last question, again, on the enterprise space. I think last year, you had talked about the pending Juniper, HPE acquisition as potentially driving more leads, more interest from customers. That acquisition closed about a year ago. Frankly, it sounds like it's going quite smoothly for the company. I'm wondering, is that still an opportunity for Arista to take share from that customer base? Or has that maybe become less of an opportunity?
Yes. I think that from our position, we're starting at 3% market share in campus. So we're super excited to the upside. And we're also excited that there's a great refresh cycle coming up in the next few years and perhaps there's a pull in of the refresh cycle as campuses get ready for AI and their AI story. So there's a lot of goodness there and we have the portfolio to serve. I think at 3% market share and the overall market is growing maybe high single digits, we're -- our growth is going to be share-taking. And so I won't comment on specific who we're taking it from, but I can say that if -- our road map is clear, and we're winning campus first deals, and I think the more we can rinse and repeat that and have them as references, I think our share taking from whoever the incumbent is what we'll be looking to do.
Right. So we only have a few minutes -- seconds left. So maybe just if you can give us your updated view on capital allocation. I mean, that's one of the benefits of Arista as you guys have great margins and very high free cash flows and they're only going up. You've made some acquisitions, but not huge ones historically. Could you maybe just talk about how you think about M&A versus potentially dividend, potentially more share buybacks?
Yes, sure. So our capital allocation, just in a nutshell, remains the same. Organic investment, marketable securities because we're still getting very strong interest income in this environment. And then it would be share repurchases and then M&A. When it comes to M&A to answer your question, nothing obvious. We don't want to break the culture, and we don't want to go into something in new adjacency. But if we see something more maybe in the AI space, either talent or tech, that's probably where we'd be looking.
Okay. Great. Thank you very much.
Thank you for your time, thank you.
Thank you all for coming. We're going to have a breakout in -- Anna, where is it? [ Mar ]? In [ Mar ].
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Arista Networks, Inc. — 46th Annual William Blair Growth Stock Conference
Arista Networks, Inc. — 46th Annual William Blair Growth Stock Conference
Arista präsentierte auf dem William Blair-Event die AI-getriebene Wachstumsstory, hielt Guidance und betonte Produkt-/Ökosystem‑Stärke sowie Supply‑Chain‑Herausforderungen.
Kurzes Gespräch mit CFO Chantelle Breithaupt und VP Rudolph Araujo, gefolgt von einer ausführlichen Q&A‑Runde.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
Arista sieht sich als „AI‑first“ Netzwerkanbieter mit breiter Portfolio‑Optionalität: 800‑Gig‑Plattformen, ein eigenes Netzwerk‑Betriebssystem (EOS) und AIOps‑Funktionen sollen Kundenflexibilität und hohe XPU‑Auslastung liefern, während das Management Wachstum, Margen und Kapitalallokation beibehalten will.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Guidance: Erneut Ziel für FY $11,5 Mrd. Umsatz und ~28% Wachstum; Operating Margin erwartet bei ~46%.
- Produktportfolio: 800‑Gig Etherlink, EOS (Edge/Network Operating System) und AIOps (AI‑gestützte Betriebsfunktionen, inkl. AVA) als Differenzierer.
- Optik & CPO: Einführung des XPO‑pluggable‑Ansatzes zur Verlängerung pluggabler Lösungen; Arista ist agnostisch zu co‑packaged optics (CPO) und favorisiert Offenheit.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- TAM‑Update: Addressable Market (TAM) erhöht auf ~$105 Mrd.; Management sieht AI und Campus als wesentliche Treiber.
- Deferred Balance: Management bestätigt deutlich höheres Produkt‑Deferred (~$3,5 Mrd.), größtenteils AI‑Projekte mit langen Abnahmezyklen.
- Lead Times: Durchschnittliche Komponenten‑Leadtimes können ~52 Wochen betragen; Campus‑Leadtimes wurden auf ~6 Wochen reduziert.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Supply Chain: Management beschreibt „Whack‑a‑Mole“ in Komponenten, erhöht Purchase Commitments; kurzfristige Burst‑Nachfrage bleibt Risikofaktor.
- Deferred Revenue: Erläuterung: Produkte sind oft ausgeliefert, fakturiert und bezahlt, bleiben aber bis zu vertraglich vereinbarten Abnahme‑Meilensteinen (Site‑Inbetriebnahme, Engineering‑Signoff) deferred (typ. 12–18 Monate).
- Wettbewerb: White‑box und NVIDIA werden adressiert: Arista betont Best‑of‑Breed‑Optionen, Agnostizität gegenüber NICs/XPUs und Software‑Vorteile (EOS/AIOps) als Gegenargumente; CPO/Optik‑Risiken sollen durch Offenheit und Zuverlässigkeit gemindert werden.
⚡ Bottom Line
Für Aktionäre: Arista positioniert sich als klarer Profiteur des AI‑Netzwerkbooms mit hoher Margenbasis und bestätigter Guidance; kurzfristige Risiken bestehen in komponentenbedingten Leadtimes und in der Umsatz‑Timingwirkung großer, deferreder AI‑Deals. Langfristig sind TAM‑Erweiterung, Campus‑Gains und Software‑Differenzierung zentrale Value‑Treiber.
Arista Networks, Inc. — J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology
1. Question Answer
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the fireside chat here with Arista Networks. I have the pleasure of hosting John McCool, who is the Senior Vice President of Platform Hardware at Arista; Tyson Lamoreaux, I hope that I got that right, SVP of Cloud and AI Networking; and then Rod Hall, who's probably not new to a lot of people, but Investor Relations and Finance at Arista.
Yes. Thanks, Samik. Yes, it's great to be back. Thank you for having us and organizing everything. It's really good to be here. And I'm going to kick off with a couple of points, and then I'm going to get -- we're going to get to your questions. But we -- two high-level themes that I want to flag to people and then I want to make a couple of points.
High level, there's 2 things you need to take away from this. One, Arista is extremely good at managing the supply chain. We -- if you go back to COVID and you don't have that -- maybe some of you don't have that history with the company, we went into COVID and ended up doing better than most others in our area in managing supply. And so that's why we've got John McCool here with us because he's the key guy that ran all of that, and we wanted to give you all a chance to hear from him and talk to him.
The second thing we want to leave you with is that our products are, from a value point of view, absolutely incredible. And we are doing extremely well from a competitive point of view, and that's why Tyson is here because he's Head of our AI and Cloud Networking Group and can, I think, articulate the value of those products really well. So those are the 2 really high-level things we want to say.
Low-level, we know there's going to be a lot of questions on supply. Samik has got a lot of questions for us as he's going to ask, but we are talking about an industry-wide supply problem. We don't believe this is specific to Arista. We've been dealing with supply issues for quite a long time, and we've called out long lead times for some of the components for several quarters now and that continues.
What we don't believe is this is necessarily changing anything from a revenue point of view for us. We already are in a situation where we can't ship as much product as we have demand for, and that's been the case for quite a while. But you will have seen in our recent earnings deck that we put out after earnings, we updated it any way, we're talking about a 20% CAGR for 3 years for our revenue, 20% plus. And that's meant to give you some idea of the confidence we've got in our ability to deliver revenue even in the midst of this difficult supply situation.
The second thing I want to say to you is that our margins remain stable. We have kept our margin guidance unchanged at 62% to 64% for the gross margins for this year. And we do that for a reason because we can demand value for these products. We've already put one pricing change through. We hope not to do any more. We want to be good partners for those customers that we work with, all of our customers. But at the same time, we're a company that has been able to demand value for its products. And I hope, as you hear from Tyson here, you'll get a better feeling for that. That's all I got to say. Over to you, Samik.
Thank you. Thanks. So that's a good overview. Now let's dive deeper, start with supply. We'll come to the cloud companies and the demand drivers in a bit. John, what are you dealing with in terms of biggest constraints on supply? And to Rod's point, how do you see the supply situation now, similar or different to what you had after COVID?
Yes. So different to COVID. So let me just start with supply. What we really see is a demand-supply imbalance, right? And Jayshree talked about on the call demand being greater than anything that she's seen in her tenure. So with that demand, capacity for advanced semiconductors have been put in place 2 years ago for this year that we're facing. As these folks are building out these big AI data centers, they really have 3 constraints. One is energy to fuel those data centers, the physical construction of the data centers and advanced components, whether that be 5-nanometer, 3-nanometer process nodes, advanced memory technology, CoWoS packaging and packaging test, DSPs for fiber optic components. So that's what we've been up against.
If you take a look at our shipments, if you take the revenue that we had in Q1, plus the deferred revenue, which actually represents physical shipments that we made from our factory, we were able to overcome those supply constraints and grew 54%. But we talked about on the call that we are living in a supply-constrained environment, and it is around those advanced processing nodes.
Any change in prioritization from your vendors in supply chain to Arista because that's been a big topic?
Absolutely. Yes. And just kind of back to the question about COVID and maybe what's different. In COVID, we started out really with a supply constraint. There were no people to build anything. I mean everything stopped. And that started to shift again to a demand profile later in. And if you think about it, that demand, part of it was IT. We were all working at home. There were a lot of computer and desktop upgrades, but we were also buying new cars, we were doing DIY projects and needed drills that had 10 FETs in them. So the things that were short were things that were broadly based across all electronics, whereas this is singularly focused around the components that need to go in AI.
In terms of prioritization, look, I think we're well represented by our suppliers who have an enormous seat at the table at TSMC as well as our customers. What we saw during COVID is our suppliers that needed to build out advanced networks to support their capability really represented us well. We haven't had to invoke that in terms of this current supply constraint, but I think it's really well recognized that our customers will need networks to connect their GPUs, their CPUs and the underlying pieces that put together their AI infrastructure.
Got it. Got it. Okay. Maybe moving down that path a bit more, let me phrase one more question, and I think Rod touched upon it a little bit, but you've talked about being a good partner to your customers, not doing multiple or aggressive price increases. There was some indication on the call that you could be looking to sort of help customers out and there could be some hit on gross margins on that account. Just maybe address those concerns while also talking to the purchase commitments that you've done and how do those help customers? And do we eventually get to a point in the tightness of the supply chain where some of those aggressive price increases or multiple price increases just become inevitable for you?
Sure. We already saw that with memory. And coming back to the comment about gross margins, what we were saying on the call is we're really going to lean into the business because of the demand. So in Q4, we began to see that sharp increase in memory prices. We went out and secured supply. We made the price adjustments in Q1. So there was some disconnect between the timing of our consumption action against the price increase. And we're going to be aggressive in terms of getting supply to meet this demand and there may be some lag between being able to pass that on to customers. But we absolutely have the value to really bring those price increases forward if there is an underlying cost increase.
Our customers are quite sophisticated. We've been with them for a very long time. So we don't believe in really kind of leveraging this moment to increase prices. They're also very sophisticated to understand the underlying mechanisms that would drive a cost increase. And no one's happy about price increases, but they're open to the conversation and have supported us in the past and are supporting us now with the memory increases that we've made.
Okay. Rod, for you. The decision to upgrade your long-term target to 20% following the earnings call, maybe just walk us through the thought process there and what drove that?
Yes. Before I say that, I also want to -- John made a point earlier in some of our meetings, we could have increased our margins quite a bit more during COVID and we chose not to do that because of these long-term relationships. So I thought that was a really good point that you made. It's not a commodity company like memory where we just double our margins when we can grab up that margin. We have these long-term relationships. We want to be good partners. So that's something to think about, even though we did keep good margins through that period.
In terms of the growth CAGR, I mean, I guess what we wanted to do, first of all, mathematically, that number, the mid-teens number we put out back in August didn't make any sense anymore in the light of our 28% growth. So that was one thing we just thought well, gosh, this doesn't make sense mathematically. But secondly, we wanted people to understand that we have confidence in our ability to deliver revenue even in the midst of this situation. So we wanted to just put some highlighter on that, make sure people understand that.
And higher number would have been more helpful, I can tell you that.
Yes.
Yes. The other thing that I think we addressed in that update was around deferred revenue. And as we were having callbacks and discussions, a lot of people conflated to discussions some people are having around order growth with deferred revenue and deferred revenue is actually things that we shipped, we've invoiced, we built and represents the growth of our shipments. So that also is explained a little bit better in that deck.
Okay. So finally, Tyson. You built one of the largest cloud networks in the world before coming to Arista. When you look at now the network architectures that your customers from this side of the lens now, the customers that are designing today versus even a year before or 2 years ago, what surprises you most in terms of how quickly things are evolving with your customers?
Well, I mean I think it's the rate and volume of change like -- and what I mean by that on 2 dimensions, the rate of change is just the quick turnover to new architecture. Some of our customers are super ambitious and their goals, objectives are unafraid of putting multiple types of competing architectures into production simultaneously and unafraid to walk away from ones that they determine don't work, don't scale, don't meet their operational criteria. We have some others who are a little bit more methodical and iterative, but their iteration cycle has shrunk. So that rate of change has increased dramatically. We've even seen it in the optics. We've seen it in silicon. It used to be accepted that you would see a new switch every 3 years. And now we're talking about 18-month cycles on accelerators, 18-month cycles on switches. Those go into new architectures. Because the architectures are advancing in parallel to the switches being built, there's sometimes some dissimilarity in terms of what is intended to be done and what can be done.
And so you see some of this iteration also apply to taking what they can use today, like maybe a Tomahawk 5 switch and deploying it at smaller scale in an architecture that's intended for something along the lines of Tomahawk 6 or maybe it's going to go out and air cooled and plan to convert it to liquid. But it's energy, it's link speed and transmission rate, it's reliability, it's the radix, the total bandwidth of the switch. You're seeing a lot of stuff evolving around protocols now at a much faster pace as well. The argument around scheduled versus unscheduled fabrics, the argument around switch-assisted computation, the argument around leveraging new protocols like the MRC protocol to be able to do better multipathing using the network silicon to assist in this as opposed to just purely unscheduled fabric, but having a protocol-native mechanism for it.
So this happens at kind of every customer, but across several customers, and then you look at across our product set and this is where kind of the volume kicks in. It's a lot of parallel change across the entire product stack kind of at the architecture level, at the system level and it doesn't really show any signs of slowing down. I mean we're staring at 1.6T coming, 3.2T is right behind it, optical technologies are evolving into XPO and CPO are coming as well. And then when we look at the clusters, john talked about the constraints in getting data centers online either due to power or real estate or construction or construction-related materials, you start to see things push around distributed training or novel ways of interconnecting locations together to drive inference or a combination of inference and training traffic.
So I think that this is similar to the cloud in several respects, but so much more on a much more compressed cycle. And hard to see when we're going to reach the peak of it. I mean it still looks like a lot of runway ahead of us to keep going.
Okay. So maybe turning -- going more specific here. A lot of attention recently around one of the large cloud providers publicly describing and detailing a new scale-out accelerator fabric, purpose built with higher radix commercial switching in a flat 2-layer topology, right? It looks on paper like a great fit for Arista?. Just talk to us about how you interpret the specifics there, and whether Arista would be well positioned with that cloud company or not in terms of their new scale-out fabric?
Yes. Well, I think your assessment of it looks great on paper, I would agree with. I mean I think that like anything that resembles our Tier 2 leaf spine architecture, higher radix Ethernet, anything that's Ethernet plays very well to our heritage, to the products we've built, to the ongoing investments in R&D that we're driving around the products that we're going to be building in the future. So ignoring the specific customer, generally, we think this is a nice validation for what we've been saying all along, which is open standards, ecosystem, interoperability, Ethernet tends to win out in the end. Customers want choice. They want to be able to choose the best-in-breed suppliers to work with. They need partners who can be an extension of their engineering capabilities and can help them achieve bigger things faster. And when we're talking about this accelerating and compressed innovation cycle, a lot of architectural level, a lot of industry-wide evolution happening.
Supply constraints. You need companies and partners that can move at the level of kind of dynamic that you have and can impedance match. So I think we're very well positioned for this type of architecture in general. I think we're building products that slot into this really well. And I think our company, in terms of its product, its operations, its capabilities also make for a wonderful fit. So we're going to go fight to try to win every one of these Ethernet deals that we possibly can, that's for sure. And we like to be part of the story there at this customer and the others.
What's exciting to me about that is if you think about 8 quarters ago, at a conference like this, we'd be talking about this Ethernet even have a role in AI, and that was all InfiniBand. We talked about the back-end network and the potential TAM. We tracked 4 customers. And if you look at our guide now for 2026, 30% of the business will be AI, right? So that's really exciting. And I think the continued validation of Ethernet and the scale-out architectures continue to drive that growth.
Let me ask you a follow-up on that, Tyson. As much as Ethernet adoption broadly is stable for Arista, what are you seeing in the competitive landscape for higher radix switches? I mean, to us, on the analyst side, hieratic switches just seems to be a great fit for Arista, but are you seeing more competition at that level of capability that you particularly do well in?
Yes. There certainly are some competitors who are aggressively pushing in for denser, higher radix switches. Some of this is kind of what I would call kind of a mixed modality, which is kind of a multi-RU or multi-OU system with several chips in it, but they kind of operate as disparate independent planes or nodes versus something more sophisticated like our modular chassis, which is kind of the largest that you can get, but it operates as a single unit and substitutes optics and cables for traces, for communication efficiency and in the case of high bandwidth and high link speeds cost savings as well. I mean, it's -- copper is always going to be cheaper than optics. And so we see competitors understanding that there is market for this and entering, but we really think we have great heritage in building here. We have a tremendous team that has been building these products for generations.
Now we've got really sophisticated customers that we've been working with in kind of somewhat of a joint development model, right? We're co-engineering together, looking down the range and saying, what are the constraints that are going to affect kind of our next-generation decision-making? Where do we need to be? Where do we need to place our systems? And that allows us to get out in front and build, in a lot of cases, some of these products that we ship that are pathfinding for our general purpose products, things that you wouldn't find in the Arista catalog on the website, but we're deploying at scale.
I think some of our competitors have recognized that, that level of sophistication exists and those opportunities exist. So they're incented to invest. Whether they can do it as well as we can, I mean, it remains to be seen. I think we're going to continue to focus on relentlessly executing with our customers. And then we generalize those things into architectures and systems that we can sell to the broader market, and that's where the enterprise follows and the Neoclouds consume and kind of slot into that quite well as well. So yes.
Maybe let's talk -- move to talking about scale across a bit. You indicated on the call, it's going to be about roughly 1/3 of your AI revenue this year. Why -- how -- like what drove -- what is driving the number to move so quickly? I mean this was practically nonexistent last year. It is going to be $1 billion almost in revenue, $1 billion or more, I guess, I should say, given your track record. But what's driving the number to move this quickly?
Yes. Well, like John said, I mean, the AI revenue even a couple of years ago was almost nonexistent. So that this one can grow independently is not super surprising. We do see some customers that are adopting architectures that heavily feature scale across inherently in their design. They're working around the data center space and power constraints proactively by saying we're going to adopt smaller tens, low hundreds of megawatt facilities, getting them together and construct them into a fashion that inherently requires on a scale across solution. Others are building massive campuses where they're layering in data centers over time on a singular campus and then the scale across works to interconnect all of those together as well.
We've also seen some novel architectures even on the inference and agentic side where customers are creating more of like an interconnect fabric for inference and access to different clouds and on-prem capabilities to power agentic. Some of it is redundancy, some of it is latency optimization, again, following principles that we've seen similar to kind of Edge computing and cloud really and its evolution into the Edge. And so -- but in terms of like is 30% durable, should we expect that every year, can it grow? When we think about the mix within the AI bucket, I think it's very dynamic still because there are so many architectures running in parallel. There's new systems and new silicon shipping in the next 12 months, another 12, 18 months behind that. These things are going to inevitably affect the architecture that folks are deploying.
I think we're a long way from seeing coalescence onto a common kind of set of design principles in AI. There's still going to continue to be a lot of experimentation. And as long as we're working around constraints, I think we're going to see mix shifts between whether it's a bigger singular facility with a lot of scale out versus more scale across. But I do think, as agentic continues to grow, as it gets commercialized, adopted, enterprises adopt, we're going to see more push to the Edge. That definitely serves -- or we have good products to serve that use case well in the scale across arena.
In the early days with the 4 customers 6 quarters ago, it was easy to track these ratios. It's getting really hard because they might build out different pieces of the network at different times. So it's difficult -- more difficult to see the alignment of the ratios...
Yes. Customer mix and then architecture choices within them for sure...
I mean scale across for inferencing has been coming up more and more. Are you able to delineate when you engage with the customer, whether it's a training, let's scale across or whether it's already planning for inferencing driven by that?
Yes and no. I mean, insofar as we have deep engagements with those customers, we have a sense of what we're doing, what we're competing for in the business and what their configuration and their architecture concentrates on and product selection. It's a little bit easier to differentiate. But again, some of these things are very temporal, right? There are decisions that are a moment in time. There are several customers who are building scale across to interconnect data centers, who, if they could gain access to a single gigawatt facility, would much prefer, right?
And so they're going to continue to work their own supply chains in parallel, data center side, compute side, storage network and converge it all. So sometimes we're going to be a lagging indicator of some of these decisions, sometimes our mix of our own products and shipments will just reflect some of that customer choice and how they solve for the constraints that they're facing. But broadly speaking, yes, I think the customers who concentrate on agentic, on inference, we can differentiate those pretty easily because there isn't the associated training workload running with it.
You brought up this earlier, Neoclouds or call it -- or maybe you can even take the segment that's just the Frontier AI labs working on Frontier models. Historically, when we look at the large hyperscaler space, your customers there, you've co-designed, innovated with them. What are you now seeing in terms of engagement model from the Frontier AI labs? Are you co-designing with them as well? What's the magnitude of the breadth of the customer vertical that you're looking at?
Yes. Well, you would have seen the press release this month of the MRC protocol spearheaded by OpenAI with a lot of partners, including ourselves. So we are deeply engaged with the Frontier folks. We treat them a lot like our hyperscale customers in terms of knowing that they're super strategic in the industry and the market. We have a lot of faith that they're going to continue to grow. We want to be able to grow with them. We want to be able to support and help power their growth as well. So those tend to be a lot of more deep relationship kind of close co-engineering, engineering extension kind of relationship. Some of them are earlier phase in terms of moving down the stack where they may have started in the cloud and they're taking on more and more of their infrastructure. We're uniquely suited to help come in and help them build to solve those problems. So that is part of our go-to-market motion when we're working with these folks is like how can we help fill in some of the gaps with them on staffing capabilities, architectural choices.
And so the motion, I think, and the engagement model looks pretty similar to hyperscalers in many respects with a lot of these Frontier folks. And certainly, even on the Neo side, as they continue to grow and become bigger entities, vice versa kind of -- it actually looks pretty similar there.
I think they recognize that token -- I've been doing some work on token economics. Token production costs are very sensitive to network performance metrics. So if you change latency or jitter just a little bit, you can really -- you can very quickly blow up your token production costs, and they're aware of that. So that's why they're engaging with a company like us.
Actually, on that front, Rod and Tyson, feel free to jump in. How are you guys thinking about networking content per rack if most of the infrastructure going forward is for inferencing, which again, I'm being simplistic here, but as you shift from training to inferencing, as more of the CapEx dollars are diverted to that, how do you think about networking content per rack?
Well, if I understand the question correctly, I mean, I think that when we look at our product set and we look at like the experience we have of high-density networking in general, it's kind of replicating itself now in just a different deployment model, right? So if you're talking about inference at the Edge, kind of complete package model, compute co-located with storage co-located with network and then the need to be able to pull from disparate data sources, provide security over the top, I mean, in many respects, it does mirror some of the common patterns of the kind of age of the Internet and the cloud in terms of what the demands are. It's just a lot more density, a lot more demanding, a lot less jitter tolerant, latency tolerant.
And so we've had a lot of conversations. And when I joined Arista, within the first couple of weeks, having conversations about the importance of like the rack as the product. And I think if you turn around and you look at the heritage on our largest chassis, the 7800s, there's a lot of technology that slots in very nicely for building these kind of co-engineered, highly integrated networking systems where the network is a piece of the story. And even with things like our CloudVision and APIs of our software, it lends itself very well toward automation and giving customers tools to be able to deploy these things, manage them, monitor the workloads, maintain them, security patch them, identify vulnerabilities to kind of help with partners and some of the other integrations that we have.
So I think the rack scale networking becomes a logical extension in the moving forward for us. And I think that's true in scale-up domain as well, not just inference at the Edge.
Let me just pause here and see if any questions in the audience. If you have a question, you can raise your hand and we'll get a mic over to you.
Okay. So maybe just continuing on then. One of the things that we've seen more recently is this thesis that's around agentic AI finally being a catalyst around enterprise customers, modernizing both their data centers and campus. Just, one, what -- how are you thinking about that overall sort of thesis? And do you -- are you seeing any evidence of it yet within your discussions with customers?
I think we're seeing a lot of vertical activity around AI and the enterprise for specific use cases, could be health care, financial, a lot of anticipation about agentic AI. I do think it's affecting people's forward-looking decisions, especially around campus and the Edge. Maybe they would have sweat the assets before. Maybe they're leaning in more to higher speeds and higher performance WiFi 7. But I think in terms of broad-based agentic AI, it's not really happening today. But I think it is people thinking about how it will in the future.
One piece that I think will be important when that day comes is you're going to lose a lot of visibility into what's happening with applications. And when we saw the transition to the client server, there was a lot of consternation about how you would monitor performance of applications. In this world, there will not be a lot of visibility. I think there's a unique opportunity in the network with network observability and the observability architecture we put in to EOS and CloudVision to really get a viewpoint into the topology and activity inside the network that should be an advantage.
I mean the other thing I'd say just as an anecdote, the silly anecdote maybe, but I've got an agent running at home and the thing is actively marketing Arista networking gear to me because I basically told it, "Look, I'd like you to be able to manage my network." It said, "Well, the stuff you've got not great. I said, "Well, what should I get?" It said, "Well, you really should get Arista, but unfortunately, it's too expensive because it's enterprise gear." And I said, "Well, I have a discount?" So that's a silly example, but when you get into enterprises and they realize that our API is so rich and broad, that is going, I think, to sort of start selling itself as they begin to use agents to manage their networks, and that's inevitable, I think.
And we have our own AVA technology we built on top of CloudVision and NetDB to help customers assist in the build out of their networks and visibility as well.
Before we run out of time, maybe just to hit a couple of topics that are of interest to everyone, XPO. You now have, I think, 100 vendor endorsements, [indiscernible] compared it to OSFP in terms of the run that it could have. How should we think about XPO? What it means for Arista economically in the sense that, yes, you enable a new standard in itself, but how does it play into the revenue opportunity for Arista?
We do sell optics that are Arista optics, Arista-branded optics we sell, but we do also enable our -- especially our cloud and hyperscale customers to procure their own optics. So there is some economic piece around the optic itself, but system readiness is key for us. We invested in the OSFP form factor and the MSA I think back in the 100-gig days anticipating 400-gig. We saw some adoption at 400-gig, but it really became mandatory and a better cooling and thermal dynamic in the 800-gig range. And I would say our market share gains that we made and our competitive differentiation would not have been possible without the OSFP. And I think we'll see XPO in sort of the 1.6 begin to be adopted, but to achieve the density, I don't think you'll be able to achieve it at 3.2 without it. I think you have some kind of use cases where it could be an advantage...
Yes, I think that's right. I mean I expect a similar kind of adoption uptake and 1.6T will be the kind of early adoption, but I think the modularity is really great here. You're going to get the density and power savings immediately, power efficiency out of it, but the ability to build a configuration on the fly or specify it to meet exactly what you deploy, if you've got a mix on a DCI use case where you've got ZR optics and you need to half load a system with ZR and you need the other half to be FR MDR internal-facing optics, you can do that very easily with an XPO kind of at deployment, at run time across a diverse supply chain ecosystem. And then you've got field replaceability for reliability and maintenance in the field. So there's going to be some use cases I think that will evolve pretty quickly where you need these mixed modalities of optics where XPO will play quite nicely. And then following on to it, obviously, we are heavily focused on XPO.
You asked about XPO, but we're also invested in CPO and we have a belief that a lot of the work we're doing around modularity, modularity to the optical engine, some of the manufacturing techniques that are being done and XPO can actually apply directly into CPO as well. It will be hard to ever achieve field replaceability because these optical engines are just super sensitive to contamination. They're super brittle. If you break something in the field, you are boing to break the whole switch. And so that's going to be difficult. But a model whereby you can replace the switch, have it serviced and then repaired and brought back into service later is much better than some of the early CPO stuff where everything is really manufactured, sautered down together at run time, it's a complex manufacturing process, yields are lower, that affects costs and then there's no reparability for it whatsoever.
So we think these 2 things will play very nicely in the ecosystem together, XPO and CPO. We just think some of the challenges that customers have around density and speeds and feeds are going to dictate that the XPO -- something get there a little sooner and the XPO will come.
XPO is an example of how we stay on the front edge of the learning curve as well because we're always -- it's such a geeky engineering-led company, we're always trying to solve problems for customers. So we're aware probably in advance of just about anybody else in networking what options are coming down the road because we're codeveloping things. So we don't make mistakes strategically thinking that maybe CPO is the only option. And there's others in the industry that bet the ranch on CPO not realizing there're other options maybe that will come along.
So we're able to distribute our risk across different technologies because we're on the front edge of the learning curve, and that's a really important thing to understand about Arista.
Okay. Maybe just while we wrap up, can you just dive into that a bit because I think there's a broader perception that Arista is delayed in terms of a CPO solution, right? Can you just dive a bit more into what are you seeing from your customers today? And if you were to put time lines around XPO versus CPO, where would you look to intersect the market with an XPO solution? What time line would you expect to intersect the CPO market as well? Or how are you thinking about the cadence of when customers start to adopt these?
I think the vision of CPO really recognized the law of physics where the connector and the chip they're closer together because you just couldn't span the distance and the opportunity to save power by putting -- not duplicating DSPs in your switching chip and in the optics. The problem has been mix and match capability of different optics as well as if an optic breaks, now you're replacing this very expensive switch part. So what we've been able to do working with the industry and the ecosystem is mitigate those downsides with the OSFP and XPO. And eventually, we believe there will have to be a CPO-like form factor, but the thing we're working is to make it really interoperable with multi-vendors and an ecosystem type of approach.
So as the power goes up, if you get past 3.2, there'll probably be some inevitability for the beginning of CPO in a more broad-based environment. I think you'll start to see some of that also in some deployments in the next couple of years as well, the beginning of it.
Yes. I think you'll see some uptake on CPO early. I mean, like Rod said, some people are betting the farm on it, betting the ranch on it. They're going to be very aggressive in trying to push it out and inevitably, there will be some adoption, but it's really well suited for certain use cases, a lot of high-density network traffic. So scale up, scale out to some extent plays pretty well, but I think where you're going to really see material adoption is when you start to get some of these other things that customers really want. They want the serviceability, they want the optionality and then the economics kind of fall behind it.
And like Rod said, some of that geekiness to us, like it's accretive, right? Our evolution of our thinking on CPO is because a lot of the work on the XPO is a pathfinder to say, "No, you can package these optical engines up into a meaningful way. You can use an interposer to interconnect those to the silicon. You can still use that silicon kind of instead of a DSP use the SerDes for driving all that signal." And now you can actually imagine a world that becomes, from a manufacturing perspective, easier to stack up as you kind of work up through that L10 assembly as well. So kind of what I would expect to see for us broadly in the industry is probably XPO really takes off '28, some early adoption may be late '27, and CPO behind it. There will be some earlier CPO deployments on that for sure. They'll kind of run neck and neck to some extent.
Great. I will wrap it up there, but thank you for coming to the conference. Thank you to the audience as well.
Thanks for having us.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology
Arista Networks, Inc. — J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology
Fireside Chat: Arista betont Supply‑Management, starke AI‑Nachfrage und klare XPO/CPO‑Positionierung.
Diskussion mit Leiter Hardware, AI/Cloud‑Networking und Finance über Lieferengpässe, Produktzyklen und Optik‑Standards.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Arista positioniert sich als Lieferketten‑Vorreiter mit stabilen Margen trotz industry‑weiter Engpässe bei fortgeschrittenen Halbleitern.
- AI‑Fokus: Ethernet‑basierte Architekturen und enge Co‑Engineering‑Beziehungen treiben rasches AI‑Wachstum; AI soll rund 30% des Geschäfts werden.
- Optikstrategie: Priorität für modulare Optiklösungen (XPO) jetzt, CPO gilt als langfristige, selektive Ergänzung mit Fokus auf Interoperabilität.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Supply‑Taktik: Aktive Vorratseinkäufe (z.B. bei Speicher), gezielte Preismaßnahmen bereits umgesetzt; Arista betont partnerschaftliche Kundenbeziehungen statt kurzfristiger Margexzesse.
- Produkt‑Tempo: Innovationszyklen verkürzen sich (von ~3 Jahren auf ~18 Monate bei Switches/Acceleratoren); Arista setzt auf modulare Chassis und Co‑Development mit Hyperscalern.
- Wachstumspfad: Management hebt langfristige Ambition hervor (≥20% CAGR) und erklärt, dass Deferred Revenue physische Lieferungen widerspiegelt.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Guidance: Bestätigung der Grobspanngrenze für Bruttomarge 62–64% und Hervorhebung eines 20%+ Umsatz‑CAGR über drei Jahre.
- AI‑Mix: Prognose, dass AI ~30% des Geschäfts 2026 ausmachen wird; erstes großes Scaling in wenigen Quartalen sichtbar.
- XPO‑Timing: XPO als Treiber für 1,6T/3,2T‑Dichte; Management erwartet frühe XPO‑Adoption (1,6T), CPO‑Breitenadoption später und selektiv.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Supply: Hauptkritikpunkte waren Engpässe bei 5nm/3nm, Packaging/CoWoS und Energie/Standortkapazität; Management nannte konkrete Speicherkäufe und Priorisierung, aber keinen schnellen Entspannungstermin.
- Preispolitik: Analysten fragten nach weiteren Preismaßnahmen; Arista betont Wert‑Pricing und sagte, Kostensteigerungen würden ggf. weitergegeben, aber nicht aggressiv ausgenutzt.
- Wettbewerb & Optik: Fragen zu höherer Radix‑Konkurrenz und CPO‑Verspätung; Antwort: Arista setzt auf modulare Chassis, XPO als kurzfristigen Pfad und koexistierende Strategien mit selektivem CPO‑Einsatz.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Arista ist technisch und operativ gut positioniert für das AI‑Wachstum; starke Nachfrage trifft jedoch auf persistente Lieferengpässe, die kurzfristig Wachstum limitieren. Langfristig bietet die Ethernet‑/XPO‑Strategie signifikanten Upside, Kernrisiken sind Lieferkette, Optik‑Adoptionstempo und Marktwettbewerb.
Arista Networks, Inc. — 21st Annual Needham Technology
1. Question Answer
Hello, and welcome to Needham's 21st Annual Technology, Media & Consumer Conference. I'm Ryan Koontz. I'm Really excited to host Arista Networks here today joined by CFO, Chantelle Breithaupt; and John McCool, SVP as well as Rudy Araujo, VP of IR. So welcome guys. How are you going?
Great. Thank you. Thanks for having us again.
Excellent. Super Well, Chantelle, let's start with your excellent quarter you guys had. Can you maybe walk us through how you felt about the results, obviously, beating expectations, and what's some of the kind of key demand drivers in your first quarter were?
Yes. Thank you. We were very excited as a company to report our results. I'm very proud of them as a team. We're very pleased with the 35% revenue growth. And if you take that, Ryan, with the change in deferred revenue, it's actually 54% of revenue forward-looking kind of growth, so we're very excited by that, right? We raised FY '26 again to the $11.5 billion, twice in the last two sessions with you guys raised the year, which is great. And if you guys go look, I encourage you all on the call to go look at our latest earnings deck where we actually also raised our 3-year CAGR outlook to be 20-plus percent. So a lot of great news, a lot of great momentum. So super excited. As Jayshree said, we've never seen more demand than we see at this time.
And we're really encouraged. We're encouraged by the progress we see in AI and the adoption of our 800-gig Etherlink portfolio. We're proud to be winning new logos across all the sectors, all our customer sectors. And the proof of concepts for Campus are really working well. We have a high win rate when we can get in there and look at the Campus where we're only 3% market share today. EPS growth, I think, was stellar. So sum it all up, we're super excited and feeling the momentum.
Excellent. And within the quarter, hyperscalers, your big customer is obviously a big contributor there. Some of your Neoclouds, I'm sure. Can maybe walk us through your thoughts about how your different customer segments contributed in Q1?
Yes. I think that we said it was a really great quarter across the board, but in the sense that we saw some really strong performance from the AI specialty provider segment, which, of course, is across the AI portfolio. So I think that's continuing to do well. And so from that perspective, I think all of those segments are showing really great signs for the year.
Super. Yes, you mentioned the nice step-up in deferred. I think it was up 100% year-over-year, it's just incredible. I mean, can you remind us again what's going into deferred, and what's driving that acceleration here for investors that they should be paying attention to?
Yes. I think it's really important for investors to understand and to go look at the earnings deck because we have some analysis and trending, which I think helpful to position where deferred is for Arista over time. But just to remind, what goes into deferred, so we talked about the $3.5 billion of AI revenue in the P&L this year. But most of what's sitting in deferred is AI use case and product. And so you have to look at both combined to look at the AI demand that we're seeing across the board. And it's not that we just put it in once and it's aged over 2 years, things come in and out of the deferred into the P&L. So it's rotating, it's refreshing.
And so I think from that perspective, it's important to look at the earnings deck pages we have. But it's a sign of growth and momentum in the sense of the AI demand that we're seeing.
It's clear, incredible demand environment right now for yourselves and a lot of your peers and your ecosystem partners, I'm sure.
And with regards to your full year, raising that to 28%, what were some of the puts and takes there? Coming out of the quarter, I think some of the investors were maybe a little disappointed that you guys didn't pull the second half up as much. And how would you characterize your constraints there on your ability to raise your full year a little more relative to your supply environment?
Yes. I don't think the year guide was in the sense of necessarily tying it to the supply environment for this year. I think -- and John will take us through probably a little bit during your questions in the sense of the supply environment. It's a when not if to us. I think you have to take our -- I think I would take it the inverse way, Arista raising twice, and we never assume 100% of everything is going to work in our guidance philosophy. So I would take it as, hey, Chantelle and Jayshree, raised twice in the last 2 quarters, and we're only in May. So let's keep watching the future quarters. And if everything can fall into place, we'll see where we can get to. I think that's how I would take it versus always trying to meet what people expect from us from a guidance perspective. That's not new. So we...
What do we get that? Trying to be conservative as you guys are, and beat and raise, we like that.
If I have to choose a philosophy, I would choose that one.
For sure. And John, how would you characterize the supply environment and some of the puts and takes, and what you guys have been successful in doing. You obviously tie up a lot of capital in terms of commitments with your strategic big partners like Broadcom, kind of walk us through your thoughts are on some of the things that are going well and some of the challenges you're feeling right now on supply.
Sure. Let me start with the going well. If you think about Chantelle's comments on deferred, the actual supply chain team had to deliver both the deferred revenue plus the revenue that was recognized. So 54% growth year after year. So we have a lot of busy folks and our suppliers are very eager to support us to fill this demand. That said, the entire supply chain environment with the AI demand is really pressing capacity on foundries. First, we saw that with memory and how that played through. There's a lot more fabs with memory on silicon, there's some concentration in those fab cycles. So that's what we're up against is an environment that's really booming across the board and really having to drive that and to turn it into finished goods and ship. So we're really comfortable with our execution so far and we'll continue to drive it.
In regards to your updated guidance, do you feel like you have everything you need in place in terms of supply chain to execute on the guide and hopefully, chase some upside there?
We're very comfortable with the guide on both margin and revenue, for sure.
Excellent. And can you maybe walk us through how you use purchase commitments to really lock in that supply, your purchase commitments were up pretty strong, is that around memory?
Yes. I mean that's -- it's across the board, but in the areas where there are constraints, specifically, as we look ahead into 2027, and what we're seeing from the demand environment, but it also helps us in short term, get very tighter with those suppliers in terms of our demand today.
Yes. And the only thing I would add, John, to your comments is that raised to $8.9 billion, it is across everything. The majority, I would say, is chip related, and it's a 52-week lead time, right, John? So we're leaning into your point into '27. So getting ahead of making sure that, that's sorted for what we need to deliver in '27.
TSMC guys are going to be pretty busy. I think...
I think they've been busy for a while.
Yes. Great. Well, maybe shifting to customers and what's happening in the AI domain. It's been a huge success story for you. I remember back a couple of years, a lot of questions, what was Arista's role in the AI back end. And you've certainly proving that out, and you're knocking down some great wins. I think in the quarter, you announced that your fourth AI customer had moved their back end from InfiniBand over to Ethernet. What brought that customer over? And how do you feel about that going forward, all of your AI accounts there?
It was the same trend we've seen on other ones. That particular customer was kind of early on had made some investments in InfiniBand and the full NVIDIA stack. But the compelling reason to move to Ethernet is multi-vendor supported, agnostic to the endpoint. So NVIDIA GPU, AMD, something you build on your own inference engine. Same capability as your front-end network, your back-end networks, so the operational simplicity around it.
And I would just add, you're seeing the same dynamic around NVLink and ESUN, starting to come up the industry rally around that and while that's not a near-term thing in terms of revenue, I think that also has bearing us in terms of the architecture going forward.
Super interesting. Wow. Maybe Chantelle talking about price a little bit. I think you announced some price changes to offset the memory costs. How is that flowing through the income statement here relative to price changes?
Yes. I think that -- back to John's point, I think the supply chain team has done great work over the last few quarters. And you've seen various companies talk about different quarters in the last 3 to 4 where memory has been in their conversation. Our philosophy or our approach and strategy was to understand the market, understand where we thought the pricing was going to go a cost to us. And the kind of the added measure twice, cut once. So we want to be sure we had a pretty good line of sight and visibility into what the cost was going to be for us for the next few quarters.
And so with that, Ryan, we did a price increase, which customers never love, but at least it was a well-known topic. Our goal was to be margin neutral over the time of the backlog converting to new orders. And so I would say that kept us in our 62% to 64% gross margin guide, which we've been talking about for, I think, 3 or 4 quarters now. So I'm super excited. We've been able to hold it, through it. We've earned the value and trust of our customers to have those commercial conversations. So we're pleased with the result, but never like to deliver a price increase to the customer. So I think margin neutral is landed. And that's allowed us to keep our guide.
Sure. I mean everyone in the hardware industry is feeling that one pretty hard. And are you guys exposed to both DDR4 and DDR5 across the portfolio?
Yes, not the same equal weighting, but yes, to both technically. Yes.
Great. As you think about your AI revenue bogey here of $3.5 billion, which is raised from $3.25 billion. That counts -- does that counts your 4 large customers there and not others that you've added -- new logos that you add?
Yes. I think that $3.5 billion, the way I like to look at it as you look at it as a percentage of the $11.5 billion, we're talking 30% of our revenue not too many years into AI totally is a pretty good win rate. I think that -- but it covers more than the 4 customers. I think that you heard a couple of quarters back, you could technically count about 100 customers across to Neocloud, some large enterprise, the 4 we talked about. The 4 initial pilots were just to take you along the journey with us as investors and the community, how it was going with the larger ones, but it covers AI, we think, is the predominant use case. So we're proud to work with some of the largest customers, with some of the smaller ones that are starting to get into their inference conversation.
I'd like to explore that, if we could. Just discussing some of the Neoclouds, what the Neocloud kind of procurement model, how that might differ from a hyperscaler type model? And then maybe talk about inference, could you guys dive into that?
Sure. Yes, I can probably jump in on that one, Ryan. So I think the Neoclouds have kind of evolved a little bit, right? Like I think when they started, A lot of it was looking for a rinse and repeat kind of reference architecture kind of model, frankly, they needed allocations of compute -- bound them on networking decisions, right?
I think what they realized is they were all starting to look the same, right? So how do you differentiate in the crowded Neocloud market in terms of what you bring to the table. And I think what they realized is the network is actually pretty critical to that differentiation, right, because the network can mean the difference between job completion times, taking longer or shorter, it can mean the difference between power utilization being higher or lower. It could be the difference between time to first token and when we start talking about inferencing, et cetera.
So what we're starting to find now is that they are actually realizing that they can't just be bound into these agreements based on what's good for compute because having the best-in-class compute is no use if you've got a substandard network, right? So that is opening up the market for sure. I think the other thing is they are definitely not buying at the same levels as the largest hyperscalers, right? So that's perhaps stating the obvious.
But they are also the folks that need a little bit more handholding, right? They don't have the experience necessarily of having built these large cloud networks, et cetera. So we're also seeing a higher attach with CloudVision, for instance, and with our Op capabilities that gives you AI Ops kind of visibility into it. So that's kind of a little bit of an interesting dynamic there relative to the hyperscalers.
Super interesting. And maybe to follow that up, you guys have talked about both scale across as well as scale out kind of that dynamic, can you maybe unpack that for us a little bit and where you've come from and how you see the market evolving in the back end there for you in terms of opportunity and what's driving your revenue?
Yes. I think we -- it's interesting to us because we saw a similar dynamic in the beginning of cloud. Once we were able to connect all the servers in the data center on a 2-tier spine leaf architecture the question is how do you expand because I don't have the physical capacity in this data center for more CPUs. Now it's GPUs. So scale across is becoming kind of the next generation of the leaf spine architecture and the Universal Spine to interconnect. So we see all different use cases, but specifically where you want one logical AI cluster across multiple physical instances.
And scale across sounds like it's in the pretty early stages of build-out. Is that right?
I would say relative to scale out. And I think in the sense of -- and I know Rudy, you're going to jump in. This is a very exciting topic for us. I think -- so the only thing I would say is that it's fairly new, but you can see how it might be required because a lot of this is when you need these kind of federated space land access to power cooling scenarios, and I think that's part of what's driving that need. But Rudy, I know you want to take that on.
Yes, I was going to say exactly that. And the other side of that point is, as you start talking about inferencing, Ryan, you brought this up. Inferencing is increasingly like how do I get as close to the edge as possible, right? Because if you're sitting in New York right now and you're asking -- you're trying -- you've got an agent running on your device and you're trying to interact with the model, you don't want to be waiting seconds [indiscernible] over time. And so that's the other thing that's going to drive, I think, scale across. So we're very excited about it, partly also because it's a very unique product set that it takes to be successful there, right?
And we've shown success there. We've got the products frankly, a lot of our competitors that we would run into and scale out don't have the product set to compete and scale across, right? So I think we feel very good about it, but it is relatively early to the point the Chantelle and John was making.
Excellent. Yes, that's great. And unless we forget about good old cloud, front-end cloud. And I think the back end has pretty much sucked all the thought out of the room and the attention. But maybe tell us what's happening in the front-end networks these days. That's been your core business, where you've been such a dominant leader for so long. How is the front-end changing to adapt to some of the new AI requirements? And what are you seeing happening in the boring old cloud business?
Yes. I mean it's funny, right? I mean, I forgot -- at least in the analyst world or in the world it is. I mean, for us, it's certainly a tremendously important piece of the puzzle, right? From an upgrade cycle perspective, if I can call it that, most customers in the front end are still in the 400-gig era, right? At least at the hyperscaler level. Some of them are maybe in the 100-, 200-gig era because frankly, the applications that we're using today are working just fine, right? I mean, we're on a web conference, we're all coming in nice and clear, going over those 200-, 400-gig networks.
It is triggering a cycle, especially as this agentic traffic pattern starts to become more commonplace, it is going to trigger that cycle. Probably next year is where you start to see the front-end networks kind of get upgraded. I mean we're certainly having conversations right now, it's in maybe more planning phases right now. But maybe next year is when you start to see the 800-gig kind of upgrade just as the AI clusters start to go into the 1.6 era, right? So there's probably a little generational gap between the front end and the back end kind of naturally if you would.
The other thing, by the way, is again, inferencing is having a huge impact there. And frankly, we didn't touch on this, but inferencing is also having an impact and the agentic is also having an impact on the enterprise side, and I think we can talk about that as well. I know it's not front end, but I just wanted to kind of get a...
I'd like to hear that on soon.
Yes.
That's great, Rudy. Yes. On the enterprise side, you're having these early discussions, I'm sure with big Fortune 50 types and financials. And I can imagine those are the leaders leaning in here. Like where are those discussions with you about architecture and build-out? Who's going to hold their hand to go do these sorts of things? I mean, do you think there are traditional guys like your competitors that are maybe more deeper entrenched in enterprise that are going to get their fair share there? How do you think about the enterprise kind of AI build-out to complement where they already have quite a bit of private cloud out there, I'm sure, where you guys are very strong.
Yes. I think one thing I'll add, or at least start with and the team can chime in. I think one thing that we've heard from some of the larger customers because part of that $3.5 billion is with enterprise customers, as we mentioned. So part of what they are starting to think about as they go through their refresh cycles as they think about new data center builds, Campus and data center, to be fair, is what is their AI landscape, what is their AI goal in the company. And one thing that we're finding is really great in the conversations when you can have one operating system like EOS across all of those components, it's super easy to have agentic AI sit on top of that because you're only having to hook into one operating system.
You can imagine having an agentic AI kind of portfolio where you're trying to go over different operating systems, not as easy to hook in, not as easy to be ubiquitous experience. I think that's a great -- like Ken thought about that maybe 20 years ago, not sure, but he designed something perfectly built for it. That's the things we hear from customers. We're hearing them pull in their campus refresh earlier to try to get into this get ready for at the edge agentic AI inference. Those are some of the things we're hearing. But Rudy or John, anything you want to add?
Yes. I think Chantelle, you hit the -- maybe the most important thing I hear from customers, right, they're realizing that AI within the enterprise is not just a Campus issue. It's not just a data center issue. It goes across the branch, the Campus. To Chantelle's point, that unified operating platform across all of those is really something that's exciting. It's frankly the other thing they're asking us and we've heavily invested in is what is our AI strategy for -- AI for networking, right? Not just we've talked a lot about AI, but AI for networking and AI for Ops. And we've continued to invest there in AVA, which is our Autonomous Virtual Assist, driving better outcomes, if you will, for customers and being able to do everything from root cause analysis, to helping them automate as much of the network operations as they like, right? Like this is not about, hey, you don't need a network operator anymore. It's about how can we augment what the network operator is doing and make their life more efficient, if you will.
Really great, Rudy. Let's shift gears to one of my favorite topics coming out of OFC, which was the XPO announcement. And I went in very excited to hear about it because I hadn't done a ton of work on it myself. I was probably a little behind. But wow, I walked away from OFC and saw just the broad industry endorsement and was so impressed. So can you maybe walk us through kind of how you got there, how you built such strong support and what it means to Arista for that to be adopted as an industry standard?
We have a very passionate founder, Andy Bechtolsheim, who...
Yes, you do.
Over many decades, has really led the definition of many MSAs working with these partners. It goes way back in terms of his development. The most recent before this was OSFP. And we anticipated that at some point, the thermal dissipation would be such that the conventional state-of-the-art would not be able to contain that. And that really was an enabler to the products you see today and our leadership in those deployments. And we're seeing the same thing happen as we go to 1.6T and beyond. The OSFP form factor was great, but won't be able to carry the industry on the next generation.
So he's been working with the team here at Arista and the optics team with those partners and building it out and we engage with them in testing and definition. So it's been a real great collaboration with the industry.
Yes. It's a super cool solution. Go ahead, Chantelle.
No, no. Okay. I don't want to stop you from saying it's super cool. What were you going to say?
No. Go ahead.
But I think that we're very proud because it's industry-leading, right? But as far as what it means for us, it's open to the industry and may all people play competitively in it. But I think for us, again, it's another thing where we've been kind of ready. We've got our product portfolio already thinking about it for the next generation of things. So I think it just place us well to be ready for something that the whole industry, hopefully, and our customers, more importantly, will benefit from for years to come, right? And so...
For sure. Yes.
The other aspect of this that sometimes I think doesn't get fully absorbed is the front panel density that this can add, right? So being able to shrink those racks opens up a whole bunch of other scale-up technologies from RF to micro LEDs, et cetera, that are far more power efficient, right? So it opens up, I think, an entirely somewhat tangential benefit but a super important benefit as these clusters start to get more and more dense. And the front panel density was becoming a limiting factor, right?
Not to forget, by the way, the sheer amount of sheet metal, less sheet metal that you need and the structural cost that, frankly, aren't paying the bills, right? Like they just deadweight, if you will.
Yes. I think the stat we would throw out there is 40-plus percent footprint reduction, just to give the audience an idea of what we're talking about.
Yes. And so really, you're saying not just for scale out, but there are other applications for that same technology that you can embed on that sled that XPO...
Yes. Scale up is probably the most interesting one because getting to the point where it was as easy definition, right? If you're within the rack and scale up, if you go outside the rack and scale up, well, we realized that we need more compute in that scale-up domain. And so now we're thinking of ways to go across multiple racks, but still stay within that coherent memory kind of scale-up the domain. Well, technologies like this are going to enable that, right, because it gives you a lower power way to interconnect these across a larger physical distance, where copper is really going to struggle, right?
So not only is there a direct benefit from an optical perspective, but I think it opens up other avenues. And like everything Andy always does, right, it's a completely open standard based, there's nothing proprietary, there's no like, hey, you have to have Arista to get this to work. But I think to Chantelle's point, it really continues to show the thought leadership that we bring to the table and how we move the industry forward with these open standards.
Super cool. So when do we start seeing products in customers' hands and supply chain start to ramp? What's the time frame that this starts to impact the industry?
So I think this is really something that will probably be most impactful, in the 3.2T era, 1.6T, you're still going to continue to see. And frankly, I think if Andy was here, he'd tell you, OSFP is not going away, right? There is a vast majority of optics out there for the foreseeable future will be OSFP. Especially when you count the enterprise and things like that. But I think for XPO specifically, you'll start to see the first products, I think, come out next year and really very large ramps in that 3.2 terabit era, where its value is much more impactful than to John's point, right, where OSFP would struggle.
Right. And the only other thing I would add to that is, I think about a quarter ago, so everyone thought 3.2T was when we'd have to go to CPO. And I think this shows that now we have a whole longevity even at 3.2, that's not required.
Exactly. Great. Maybe shifting to the Neocloud. I know we touched on them already. But you talked about a more consultative sale. Can you maybe unpack that a little bit for us in terms of what your role is in working with them, they're not probably as deep and sophisticated as some of these hyperscalers have been doing this for decades. So how is Arista's role evolving with the Neoclouds and AI specialists?
Yes, I can start and the group can chime in. So I think -- I personally think Neoclouds is a fascinating segment. Every one of them is different and a pleasure to work with. But they all -- they come to us differently. Generally, they come to us because they know we have the bigger cloud experience. So they would like more of that like what Rudy and John described. But there are different scenarios that we come into it. There's a scenario where the team has experience, and they know us and it's a best-of-breed open conversation, high win rate there because everything -- our portfolio of Etherlink suits that very well and all the things that Rudy mentioned.
Then there's the example like what Ken Duda mentioned in our earnings call, where the first try of it with the team, team capable, but in a different scenario. They went with a different solution. And now they've come to us because they realized the capabilities required of their incumbent technology and architecture didn't serve their scale-out needs. And so Ken Duda did a very good job, I think, articulating that scenario, we see those. And we see things that when people feel emboldened to go to different XPU vendors they come to us because they know we're agnostic to the XPU. So we see, they come at us from different angles, but we are known as being a great provider to them for their AI needs.
I don't know, Rudy and John, if there's anything you want to add, but...
Yes. I mean I think in terms of the selling process, the only I would add is, look what's done well for Arista is this deep engineering to engineering partnership, right? Like so having our really folks that are working on some of these largest networks be in that consultative selling process with the Neocloud is something that they appreciate because, frankly, they are breaking new ground. And they're trying to do this at kind of the speed of light, so to speak, right? What normally might have taken a year or 2 years to ramp, you don't have that luxury anymore.
The only other thing I'd add, and I'll tie this back to your previous question about optics, right? Like one of the things that they appreciate about working with us is we don't lock them into, well, if you want to do this, you have to go down the CPO route, right? Like we still give them that optionality. If they want to go down CPO, we're thinking about open CPO and things of that nature, XPO is obviously there. LPO is an option, traditional OSFP fully retimed, like whatever -- they don't feel as locked in, and I think that's something that they're really beginning to appreciate because as I was saying earlier, ultimately, they've got to bring dollars and cents in the door and from their end customers. And to be able to do that, they need to be able to differentiate from the Neocloud down the street, right? And how do they do that? They're all running the exact same architecture, if you will.
Sure. Makes sense. I want to go back and touch on agentic. It's going to come up more and more and more. I think it's really starting to impact the company's core business with all the different agents that are being rolled out. How is that affecting the architecture of your customers? We hear about more CPU content, locating CPUs closer to GPU clusters. I mean, how does this affect Arista's demand equation and the conversations you're having with customers in terms of agentic infrastructure?
Do you guys want to start? Or do you want to start?
Yes, I can start. So Chantelle kind of touched on this a little bit earlier, right? Like people are starting to think about, okay, what does this new bandwidth pattern on the -- look like, right? In our traditional world, maybe it's a little bit more bursty, right? You go to a ChatGPT, kind of more chatbot, kind of a world of LLM or generative AI. It is still bursty, but maybe the burst are slightly bigger, if I can use that term. You get to an agentic thing, and these things are talking to each other all the time, right? So how do you kind of manage through that process?
So as Chantelle had touched on that, right, WiFi 7 is becoming maybe a sooner cycle than you normally would have seen with these WiFi migrations. They're also thinking about things like what does that mean from a power Ethernet perspective, right? Because now you've got all these smart devices that are all across your environment that are also becoming agents in themselves. So how do you enable that? How do you enable them to be securely connected to your network, right? So Zero Trust Networking is another aspect to the conversation that they're having.
And then frankly, kind of the bread and butter stuff around things like routing and encryption on the wire and multi-tenancy, like stuff that, frankly, I think most people would think is boring until maybe 6 months a year ago, but it's becoming super important now. And again, I'll repeat what I said earlier, we're one of the few folks that has the products to play in that space, right? So we like our shot as we get into that. The competitive -- it's not that there's no competitors, but it is a different competitive environment than I think you see with maybe scale out, for instance.
And I think that -- sorry, go ahead, John.
Just one of those boring parts that Rudy has talked about that's baked into the architecture. Whenever we see like a mission-critical application, we see a thrust in those customers looking at observability, what's happening on my network. So now you can imagine all these agentic communications, this new type of workload. What kind of visibility can you provide, customers can see what's actually going on. That's going to be pretty important as well.
Is that where your telemetry kind of has a lot to offer?
Absolutely, not just the telemetry itself, but the architecture of the state-based architecture and be able to stream information is going to be critical.
Yes. That's a big differentiator for you guys. I've heard a lot about that. With regards to 1.6T coming, how are you thinking that the long-awaited Tomahawk 6, how is that going to impact your mix and demand? And is this just a normal generation? Or does this bring any kind of accelerators to the demand equation to keep up with all this bandwidth?
Well, I think we're not preannouncing anything, just to be clear in the conversation the way you asked the question, but I think you could count on us to be ready when the cycle is there to be ready with the great products we usually do. So take that as we'll be ready when the market is ready and everything comes together from an ecosystem perspective. I think -- I don't know if there's anything there, Rudy, or John, we talked about in the sense of accelerating at this time. Clearly, there's a demand in the portfolio in the customer set. But Rudy, anything you want to add?
Yes. I mean I guess just one interesting data point, right? Like I think we released 100 gig products. I mean John will probably keep honest here, in 2019, I think, give or take. The 800-gig products came out in 2024, right? So that what, 5 years? It's not going to take 5 years to get to. I know we're preannouncing product, but I can tell you it's not going to be 5 years to get to 1.6T, right? And people are already talking about 3.2T. So in that sense, the pace of innovation is absolutely rapid, right? I don't think it's anything we've seen in the world before. And frankly, that's why when Jayshree says, look, this demand environment is nothing like I've ever seen before. And by the way, she's seen a lot right in this industry. That's the say probably.
But in terms of how customers think about it, it is the next generation of networking. The uniqueness of course, is the cooling infrastructure is changing, right? Like I want to see a mix of air cool and liquid cool, right? So that's, I think, an interesting dynamic that customers are still kind of trying to get their hands around because this is breaking new ground for everyone, right? And it's part of the reason why Chantelle talked about new use cases, new products, et cetera, like this is some of that complexity that comes in, right? It's not just about can we ship the product out the door. It's can the customer also be able to absorb that and get value out of it, right? And that's where I think we continue to partner. It's a model that's worked really well for us, and we see no reason to change from that, right?
Yes, the shift to liquid cool data centers. I mean, I didn't see this coming. The mechanical engineering will be so cool again.
It's back.
It is. Let me just wrap it up here. But let's talk briefly about Campus and your progress in Campus and WiFi a little. Can we touch on that briefly?
Yes, I would love to. I think that if you look at -- I think last year was our first real external kind of accountability model, and we hit that revenue of $800 million. We raised the target this year to $1.25 billion. So 55% growth for ourselves with you guys to hold ourselves accountable. Super excited. You've heard others talk about, there's a great refresh cycle happening in the next couple of years. We're definitely participating. We're winning in campus, not even being in the data center yet, which validates our portfolio. Our proof of concepts are very well received. I think that -- so we're just -- we're super excited with campus. Our portfolio is there to meet their needs, including this agentic AI conversation.
Rudy, anything you wanted to add on the -- or John? Because I know, we're out of time.
That 55% in context, right? I think it's a market that's growing single digits. We are starting from a low base. I mean our share is probably in the 3%, 4%, 5% range today. But I mean, that is just tremendous growth. So I think just as much as we're excited about the AI opportunity, I think the Campus opportunity is incredibly exciting, especially because there's far more customers building Campuses than there are customers building AI, right? So it's a different selling motion. It's a little bit slower of a ramp, et cetera. But it is a long game, and we're in it for sure.
That is great. Well, super. I mean, I really appreciate you guys joining today. Any last comments you wanted to make Chantelle to investors just wrapping up where Arista is delivering?
We raised our year twice in the last 2 quarters. We had 55% across the P&L in deferred revenue, exceeded EPS expectations, and so we'll continue to deliver value to you guys. And hopefully, you're as excited as we are in the demand that we've pervaded to you today.
For sure. Well, thanks for joining. Really appreciate it.
Thank you. Have a good day.
Bye.
Bye.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — 21st Annual Needham Technology
Arista Networks, Inc. — 21st Annual Needham Technology
Arista präsentierte auf der Needham-Konferenz starke AI-getriebene Nachfrage, bestätigte Guidance und betonte Lieferkettenmaßnahmen sowie Open‑standard‑Initiative XPO.
Präsentation auf der Needham 21st Annual Technology, Media & Consumer Conference.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Momentum: Starkes Quartal mit 35% Umsatzwachstum; kombiniert mit Veränderung bei aufgeschobenen Erlösen spricht Management von ~54% „forward‑looking“ Wachstum.
- AI‑Fokus: AI ist Treiber — Arista sieht AI‑Umsatz von $3,5 Mrd. (≈30% des Guides $11,5 Mrd.) und gewinnt Kunden von InfiniBand zu Ethernet.
- Vorsicht bei Timing: Guidance bestätigt, Upside möglich, Management bleibt konservativ bei konkreten Zeitpunkten für weitere Hochstufungen.
💡 Strategische Highlights
- XPO/Open‑Standard: Neue Formfaktor‑Initiative mit breiter Branchenunterstützung; erste Kundenprodukte nächstes Jahr, großer Ramp‑Effekt erwartet in der 3.2T‑Ära.
- Lieferkette & Commitments: Kaufverpflichtungen auf $8.9 Mrd. erhöht, Schwerpunkt auf Chips/Memory mit ~52‑Wochen Leadtime, Planung bis 2027 zur Sicherung Kapazität.
- Campus & Neoclouds: Campusziel $1,25 Mrd. (55% Steigerung), geringe Basis (~3% Marktanteil) aber hohe POC‑Win‑Rates; Neoclouds verlangen mehr Beratung und einheitliche OS/Netzwerk‑Stacks.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- AI‑Buchung: Management konkretisierte, dass das $3,5 Mrd. AI‑Bogey mehr als nur die vier großen Kunden umfasst (auch Neoclouds & Enterprise‑Pipelines).
- Preise & Margen: Preiserhöhungen zur Kompensation steigender Memory‑Kosten; Ziel bleibt Bruttomarge 62–64% und Management bezeichnet das Ergebnis als „margin neutral“.
- Roadmap‑Hinweis: Keine Produkt‑Vorpressemeldungen; Arista betont Bereitschaft für 1.6T/3.2T, aber konkrete Launch‑Timing‑Angaben zurückhaltend.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Supply‑Risiken: Nachfrageboom drückt Foundry‑Kapazitäten; Management sagt, man sei „komfortabel“ mit Guide, nannte aber keine scharfen Puffer für möglichen Upside.
- Deferred Revenue: Analysten fragten nach Zusammensetzung; Antwort: Großteil AI‑Use‑Cases/Produkte, Rotation in die P&L, Signal für nachgelagerte Nachfrage.
- XPO‑Timing & Ramp: Nachfrage nach Zeitplan für Kundenlieferungen — Antwort: erste Produkte nächstes Jahr, größere Skalierung in der 3.2T‑Phase, OSFP bleibt daneben relevant.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Arista zeigt starke AI‑getriebene Dynamik, hält Guidance und Margen trotz Kostendruck; entscheidend für Anleger ist nun die Lieferketten‑Execution (Commitments vs. Foundry‑Limits), die Conversion der hohen aufgeschobenen Erlöse in realisierten Umsatz und der Zeitplan für XPO/1.6T‑/3.2T‑Produkte.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to the First Quarter 2026 Arista Networks Financial Results Earnings Conference Call.
[Operator Instructions]
As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and will be available for replay from the Investor Relations section on the Arista website following this call. Mr. Rudolph Araujo, Arista's Head of Investor Advocacy, you may begin.
Thank you, Regina. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on today's call are Jayshree Ullal, Arista Networks Chairperson and Chief Executive Officer; and Chantelle Breithaupt, Arista's Chief Financial Officer.
This afternoon, Arista Networks issued a press release announcing its fiscal first quarter results for the period ending March 31, 2026. If you want a copy of this release, you can find it on our website. During the course of this conference call, Arista Networks management will make forward-looking statements, including those relating to our financial outlook for the second quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, longer-term business model and financial outlook for 2026 and beyond, our total addressable market and strategy for addressing these market opportunities, including AI inventory management, lead times and product innovation, which are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K and which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements.
These forward-looking statements apply as of today, and you should not rely on them as representing our views in the future. We undertake no obligation to update these statements after this call. This analysis of our Q1 results and our guidance for Q2 2026 is based on non-GAAP and excludes stock-based compensation expense, intangible asset amortization, gains, losses on strategic investments and the income tax effect of these non-GAAP exclusions, including the recognition of direct access tax benefits associated with stock-based awards. A full reconciliation of our selected GAAP to non-GAAP results is provided in our earnings release.
With that, I will turn the call over to Jayshree.
Thank you, Rudy, and welcome, everyone, to our first quarter 2020 earnings call. Arista has experienced significant velocity in all our sectors in Q1 and are now commanding the #1 market share in high-speed switching in the greater than 10 gigabit Ethernet category. With that, we have overtaken many incumbent vendors according to major market analysts for 2025. Our cloud and AI networking strategy for diverse AI accelerators continues to gain traction. Unlike typical workloads, AI workflow patterns can be long-lived elephant flows or short-lived and simply not predictable. This implies careful attention to performance where a flow can cause [indiscernible] for a long duration of milliseconds. The intensity of a flow can determine the line rate throughput, the shifting traffic patterns to massive flows synchronized to all in all, or all reduce or bursts of collective communication are all important for AI training and inference applications.
I would like to take a moment to review our 3 AI fabric use cases. In scale-up mode, we have familiar technologies such as NVLink and PCIe that have enabled vertical scaling of single compute nodes or REX. The advent of E.SUN Ethernet for scale-up networking specifications allows for increasing or decreasing computing power in a flexible manner with Ethernet to automatically adapt to workload demands. Scale-up will be a new entry for Arista in 2027 and beyond, where we will be working closely with our customers to build AI racks with very fast interconnects for co-packaged copper, CPC, or open co-packaged optics, CPO, as well as supporting collectives and memory acceleration.
Scale-out or horizontal scaling involves adding more machines to a [indiscernible] spine fabric, moving workloads across multiple servers or nodes or even connecting other elements like storage or CPUs. As you scale up [indiscernible] with massive data sets, bottlenecks can be resolved with collective and protocol acceleration at L2, L3, cluster load balancing, all at wire rate. The system must deliver consistent performance without degradation as more nodes participate. Arista is a shining example here with greater than 100 cumulative customers to date in 800 gigabit Ethernet deployments, and we expect the addition of 1.6 [ terabyte ] in 2027 at production scale.
Scale across drives across the cloud and AI as the AI accelerators in a location may need to be distributed to achieve the appropriate bandwidth capacity with the optimal power. As workloads become more complex and more distributed, the bi-sectional bandwidth must scale smoothly to avoid bottlenecks and preserve performance. This demands sophisticated traffic engineering, deep routing, encryption properties and integrated optics based on Arista EOS stack and using Arista's flagship 7800, R3 or R4 series. The 7800 has established itself in this category as the premier scale across choice.
You can see with Arista's accelerated networking strategy and these 3 types of AI fabrics. These are critical to deployment of diverse accelerators and frontier models. Traditional static network topologies with hotspot jitter that slows down job completion time or increases time to first token for inference are all not the way to go. Arista's Ethernet portfolio addresses both the synchronous flows for massive training and the low latency for concurrent swarms of real-time inference in this era of trillions of tokens, terabits of performance and terawatts of power. In 2024, you may recall, we discussed 4 Ethernet-based AI training deployments. And of course, since then, we've expanded and exploded to countless others. This fourth customer from the group has officially moved from InfiniBand to Ethernet at production scale over the last 2 years. The high-speed Ethernet AID spine with flexible air or liquid cooled infrastructure overcomes the physical constraints of power and space for AI workloads.
It results in a low latency distributed AI supercomputer fabric across global regions. What is clear to me and us is our networking progress with data, control and management and multiplanar orchestration is not only central to our AI searching performance, but also important for high-speed optics transmission. At the recent Optical Fiber Conference, Arista unveiled its extended pluggable optics, XPO form factor designed specifically for optics innovations at high speed. Now endorsed by greater than 100 vendors, salient features include record-breaking throughput, delivering 12.8 terabits per pluggable module, unprecedented rack density achieving 204.8 terabits per OCP rack unit, integrated cold plate capable of cooling up to 400 watts power per module and the universality and flexibility across a range of pluggable optics, copper as well as linear halftime our retimed interfaces. A special kudos to Andy Bechtolsheim, Arista's Chief Architect for driving from OSFP 10 years ago to this next-generation XPO, bringing structural improvements in power, footprint and cost reductions. Our enterprise business experienced strong results in Q1 2026, both in data center and campus. Our VeloCloud acquisition is also integrating well into our branch and campus strategy, bringing more distributed enterprise use cases and a new channel motion with managed service providers, MSPs. To share some recent wins, let us hear now from Todd Nightingale and Ken Duda, our Co-Presidents, to delineate our Arista 2.0 Centers of Data Strategy. Over to you.
Thanks, Jayshree. Arista is diversifying this business with new customer acquisitions covering a broad set of use cases, all unified by Arista's EOS stack and its ability to modernize enterprise infrastructure operating models. Our first highlighted win is a new cloud AI network. The customer was constrained by an incumbent white box architecture that simply could not keep pace with the massive scale-out requirements of AI. Arista was selected as a commercially proven and reliable scale-out architecture with unmatched stability of EOS and the ability to connect AMD MI Series X [indiscernible]. Arista's AI leaf and spine Etherlink products were deployed at 800 gigabits to provide the incredible performance, modern AI networks require. The AI fabric was tuned using Arista's cluster load balancing to scale out the thousands of XTUs minimizing hotspots and congestion. On the software side, the customer leveraged AVD, Arista's validated design framework, to automate network provisioning, which both reduces the total cost of ownership, but also provides an easy path to reliable network deployment at scale, where without AVD automation, a small mistake can cause precious days of debugging time. This was a strategic neo-cloud win with large potential for upside growth in an area where we are seeing enormous opportunity and velocity in both new cloud and soften cloud customers.
Our next win is in the service provider sector with a leading regional fiber-to-the-home provider serving hundreds of thousands of subscribers. As subscriber bandwidth demands have surged, this customer realized their legacy routing architecture was too rigid, too brittle and too costly to scale. They needed a solution, which would modernize their next-generation backbone and Internet puring edge. Arista won this upgrade by proving an automation-first approach with a modern operating model, driving operational savings and increased subscriber reliability. On the hardware side, we deployed [indiscernible] 7280 routing platforms using EOS's FLX capabilities, which unlock deep buffering, a rich control playing software stack and full Internet route scale. On the software side, Arista's AVD framework, again, automates router provisioning to reduce the time it takes to turn up services while also reducing errors. Here, we saw great results from our technology partnerships with Palo Alto Networks, ensuring the routing edge integrated securely and seamlessly with our overarching security architecture. And here, Arista's core value proposition of lower operating costs and greater reliability to grow the competitive win. Now I'll hand it off to Todd.
Thanks, Ken. Our third win is in the insurance services sector. Following a year of strategic collaboration, the customer wanted to modernize their infrastructure with a streamlined, automated foundation capable of delivering granular real-time insights to secure and monitor critical applications. Here, observability was truly the key. Arista secured this comprehensive win after executing a flawless proof of concept proving our architecture significantly exceeded operational standards. To achieve deep network observability the customer deployed our R3 series for filter and delivery roles on our monitoring fabric DMS. Additionally, they deploy campus switches to radically simplify out-of-band management. Leveraging rich telemetry capabilities of EOS, the customer unlocked advanced features like VXLAN header stripping and transition to a fully automated declarative operational model.
Our final win is within the manufacturing sector where we're seeing amazing momentum. Here, we have a customer operating more than 100 factory sites globally, servicing consumer, health care, aerospace, defense and AI infrastructure customers. This was a true mission-critical use case and their legacy campus network have become the bottleneck for achieving real 24/7 production. Shifting traffic patterns, manual provisioning and importantly, a lack of visibility and forensics into microbursts and drops for keeping them from achieving their goals. Arista won an extensive bake off against 2 established vendors, both of whom proposed campus design that could not match what Arista delivered, a universal leaf spine campus based on open standards running a single EOS binary across campus, data center and WAN. The Cognitive Campus solution leveraged 100-gig campus spine, high-powered POE leaves and Arista WiFi 7. CloudVision drove provisioning, configuration and life cycle end to end with consistent tooling across the network infrastructure. Here, it really was Arista's modern operating model that drove differentiation in the engagement, hit list production upgrades, latency analyzer for microbes visibility and true packet drop forensics.
The teams were able to significantly reduce production impacting maintenance windows and exposed events that had previously caused lying interruption. In all 4 of these examples, Arista's support team stood out to customers for its best-in-class service, well known for troubleshooting issues with customers long after Arista gear is no longer suspected to be at fault. Arista's modern operating model also played a key role, especially the AVD tooling that Ken mentioned, for architecture, validation and deployment. We're excited about the momentum across the entire enterprise business and especially the diversification that it brings to Arista Thanks, Jayshree.
Thank you, Todd. Thank you, Ken. It was so fantastic to hear of happy customer outcomes. We had another fitting example of that at our Innovate 2026 event here in the headquarter facility held in March. The energy and enthusiasm of our greater than 250 customers who attended was truly [ infectious ] and inspiring. I want to especially give a shout out to Ashwin Kohli and Divia Wagners teams who have already improved our outstanding Net Promoter Score from 87 to 89 ratings translating to a 94% customer approval. This really exemplifies the lowest security vulnerabilities in the tech industry. It enhances our ability to better cope with the many risks that AI is creating.
As I look ahead at the year, our Arista 2.0 momentum continues to march on and resonate. Our demand is actually the best I've ever seen in my Arista tenure. The supply, however, is a slightly different and opposite tail. We are experiencing industry-wide shortages across the board, be it wafers, silicon chips, CPUs, optics and, of course, memory that I referred to last quarter, coupled with elevated costs to procure these.
Clearly, our demand is outstripping our supply this year. While we hope the supply chain will the next year or 2, the Arista operations team has been diligently engaging with our vendors in strengthening supply agreements and engaging in multiyear purchase commitments. We anticipate gross margin pressure due to mix and trade-offs we are making to pay more to assure supply continuity to our customers. Nevertheless, it gives us confidence to increase our forecasted growth slightly to 27.7%, aiming now for $11.5 billion for 2026. We also increased our AI target now to $3.5 billion this year, thereby more than doubling our AI sales annually. And with that good news, over to you, Chantelle for the financial details.
Thank you, Jayshree. I continue to be impressed by our company's ability to deliver such a breadth and depth of networking innovation. It is a core tenet that underpins our strong financial return to shareholders. [indiscernible] want to detail our most recent financial outcomes. To start off, total revenues in Q1 were $2.71 billion, up 35.1% year-over-year and above our guidance of $2.6 billion. Growth was seen across the customer sectors led by our AI and specialty providers customers within the quarter. International revenues for the quarter came in at $418.9 million or 15.5% of total revenue, down from 21.2% last quarter. This quarter-over-quarter decrease was primarily influenced by Americas-based sales to our large global customers. The overall gross margin in Q1 was 62.4% within the guidance range of 62% to 63% and down from 63.4% in the prior quarter. This quarter-over-quarter decrease is due to the lower mix of sales to our enterprise customers in the quarter. Operating expenses for the quarter were $396.8 million or 14.6% of revenue, down slightly from last quarter at $397.1 million.
Our R&D spending came in strong at $271.5 million or 10% of revenue, despite a slight sequential decrease due to the timing of new product introduction costs, Arista continues to demonstrate its commitment and focus on networking innovation. Sales and marketing expense was $103.5 million or 3.8% of revenue, down from 4% last quarter, representative of the highly efficient Arista go-to-market methodology. Our G&A costs came in at $21.8 million or 0.8% of revenue, down from $26.3 million last quarter, reflecting our strong base cost productivity within a pure-play networking business model.
Our operating income for the quarter was $1.29 billion or 47.8% of revenue. Let me pause here to thank the greater Arista team for all of their efforts and resulting excellent execution in a dynamic environment. Other income and expense for the quarter was a favorable $110.8 million, and our effective tax rate was 21.1%. Overall, this resulted in net income for the quarter of $1.11 billion or 40.9% of revenue. Our diluted share count was 1.27 billion shares, resulting in a diluted earnings per share for the quarter of $0.87, up 31.8% from the prior year.
Now turning to the balance sheet. Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities ended the quarter at approximately $12.35 billion. In the quarter, we did not repurchase our common stock. Of the $1.5 billion repurchase program approved in May 2025, $817.9 million remain available for repurchase in future quarters. The actual timing and amount of future repurchases will be dependent on market and business conditions, stock price and other factors.
Now turning to operating cash performance for the -- for the quarter, we generated approximately $1.69 billion of cash from operations in the period, the strongest in the history of Arista. This was driven by a robust earnings performance, coupled with an increase in deferred revenue. DSOs came in at 64 days, down from 70 days in Q4 due to the linearity of shipments within the quarter. Our inventory turns improved slightly, landing at 1.7% versus 1.5% in the prior quarter. We ended the quarter with $2.38 billion in inventory, up from $2.25 billion last quarter. This marginal increase is a calculated investment in the mix of raw materials to fulfill our growing demand.
Our purchase commitments at the end of the quarter were $8.9 billion, up from $6.8 billion at the end of Q4. As mentioned in prior quarters, this expected activity mostly represents purchases for chips related to new products and AI deployments. We will continue to have some variability in future quarters as a reflection of the combination of demand for our new products, component variability and the lead times from our key suppliers. This could also result in quarters of elevated inventory balances ahead of the deployments. Our total deferred revenue balance was $6.2 billion, up from $5.37 billion in the prior quarter.
The majority of the deferred revenue balance is product related. Our product deferred revenue increased approximately $643 million versus last quarter. We remain in a period of ramping our new products, winning new customers and expanding the use cases, including AI. These trends have resulted in increased customer-specific acceptance clauses and an increase in the volatility of our product deferred revenue balances. As mentioned in prior quarters, the deferred balance can move significantly on a quarterly basis, independent of underlying business drivers. Accounts payable days were 54 days, down from 66 days in Q4, reflecting the timing of inventory receipts and payments. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $54.5 million. We continue the construction work to build expanded facilities in Santa Clara. In Q1, we incurred approximately $40 million in CapEx related to this program and estimate it will reach $180 million in 2026. These Q1 results have provided a strong start to our fiscal year 2026. As Jayshree mentioned, we are now pleased to raise our 2026 fiscal year outlook to 27.7% revenue growth, delivering approximately $11.5 billion. We maintain our 2026 campus revenue goal of $1.25 billion and raise our AI fabric school from $3.25 billion to $3.5 billion.
I would like to take this opportunity to remind the audience that the timing and outcome of customer projects with acceptance terms can create quarterly and sequential dynamics that do not follow prior year trends. For gross margin, we reiterate the range for the fiscal year of 62% to 64%, inclusive of mix of anticipated supply chain cost increases for memory and silicon. Given this challenging supply backdrop, I am proud of our sourcing team's execution, which strongly contributes to the gross margin outlook holding in our guidance range. We feel confident that we can source the necessary supply to meet our customers' needs. Our operating margin outlook remains at approximately 46% for the fiscal year, with the tax rate expected at 21.5%. On the cash front, we will continue to work to optimize our working capital investments with some expected variability in inventory and cash flow from operations due to the timing of component receipts on purchase commitments. More specifically, now our guidance for the second quarter is as follows: now with the added quarterly metric of diluted earnings per share, revenues of approximately $2.8 billion, gross margin between 62% and 63%, operating margin between 46% and 47% and diluted earnings per share of approximately $0.88 with approximately 1.27 billion diluted shares. Our effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 21.5%. In closing, we are optimistic about the fiscal year ahead. The industry has many times demonstrated the pattern of landing on Ethernet is the winning technology, and that is where Arista shines best. We appreciate our customers' choice of working with us to achieve their business outcomes. Now Rudy, back to you for Q&A.
Thank you, Chantelle. [Operator Instructions]
Thank you for your understanding. Regina, please take it away.
[Operator Instructions]
Our first question will come from the line of Simon Leopold with Raymond James.
2. Question Answer
Great. I wanted to explore your commentary around the scale across opportunity in particular. And I guess what I'm trying to get a better sense of is how much revenue, if any, did that contribute last year? And how material is that to the $3.5 billion forecast you're giving this year? And how should that trend longer term?
Sure, Simon. I think last year, on scale across, we were just beginning. So I think they were small numbers. And majority of the numbers were really scale out. That's sort of our heritage and that's where we excel. If I were to anticipate how it would be this year, again, scale up is virtually 0 and nonexistent because it really only comes to play after the ESN spec. So consider that more a [ 27, 28 ] kind of number. So I think the number will be really shared between scale across and scale out. I don't know if I can say it's 50-50 or 70-30 or 60-40 but scale across will definitely contribute at least 1/3 of our AI number.
Our next question will come from the line of George Notter with Wolfe Research.
Maybe just continuing the discussion on scale up. We are starting to see rack design wins. One of your competitors in the ODM space, I think, has got a couple of designs that they've announced at least. And I know you're kind of pointing towards ESON as being kind of a key catalyst in generating business there. But can you talk a little bit about where you are in terms of designs with customers, progress. Anything you can tell us there would be great. And in fact, I think a few quarters ago, you said you had 5 to 7 scale up rack designs that you were at least working on. I'm just wondering if you can update that.
Yes, that's correct, George. I think there is no doubt in our mind that we will have a number of racks and number of scale-up use cases in 2027. Maybe some of them will be in early trials, but majority of them are looking at really starting with 1.6T and 1.6T chips will really happen in 2027. There may be a few, a handful of them that tried some experimental stuff at 800 gig. But we continue to see at least 5 to 7 rack opportunities. Some of them are multiple racks with the same customer. We're actively designing with them. There's a huge amount of liquid cooling designs with very dense cabling options, acceleration of collectives and memory features we have to work on for low latency. So I definitely feel we're an active engineering phase with Ken and Hughes teams this year.
But unlike the ODMs, I think we're held to a higher bar and we have to just make sure that this thing is production worthy and specification adhering to ESON. So I would say today's scale-up is mostly limited to NVLink from NVIDIA and maybe some PCI switching but majority of the Ethernet scale-up will only really happen in '27 and '28.
Our next question will come from the line of Antoine Chkaiban with New Street Research.
So with the supply outstripping demand, I'm wondering how much does your current supply allow you to grow this year and next. If you update as top line growth guide of 28% growth, a good reflection of how much supply you've secured for this year? And what could that number look like next year based on how much supply you think you can get as of today.
Antoine, I think the supply chain problem, and Todd, maybe you can add to this, is not a 1- or 2-quarter phenomena. We now think it's a 1- or 2-year phenomena. When you -- at first, we thought it was memory. Now it's all the wafer fabrication facilities. Every chip is challenged, and you can see how Chantelle has leaned in with the purchase commitments for multiple years. So while we will continue to improve it, this is a reflection of not just demand, but how much we can ship this year. And as we continue to ship this year, we can give you better visibility on next year. But I can just tell you, we see multiyear demand, and we are going to do everything, including hurt our gross margins to supply to that demand this year and next year because we believe that we certainly don't want to keep GPUs idle and AI infrastructures underutilized because Arista didn't supply the network.
So can the number get better this year? I think this reflects our best attempt at a good number. We started out -- we started at 20% -- 25% growth? Yes. So we started out to 20%, we are 25%, now at 27.7%. Could we improve to the tail end of the year? We'll see. But the amount of de-commits we're seeing doesn't feel good. So we think a lot of this will continue into next year and keep us constrained for the next couple of years.
Our next question will come from the line of Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.
Jayshree, last quarter, you had alluded to kind of engagements with other hyperscale cloud titan customers? I think you also pointed to maybe having 1 or 2 new 10% customers this year. I'm curious of where we stand today? Any updated thoughts on adding 1 or 2 new customers at 10% plus? And maybe qualitatively, just talk about your engagements you're having beyond your 2 big cloud titans across the hyperscale vertical.
Yes, absolutely. First of all, 2 big ones. We never take them for granted. Microsoft and Meta, there are all-time favors. They've been on 10% and greater customers for over a decade. And the partnership could never be stronger, and it continues to get better both in cloud and in AI. In terms of the new entrants, we still expect at least one, maybe two and maybe I should caveat this by saying, certainly, in demand, we see 1 or 2. We shall see Todd, how we do on shipments to see if we can achieve the greater than 10%. The 2 of them have very interesting characteristics. They exhibit what I would call the 3 use cases I just alluded to, scale up, scale out and scale across where we really have a fabric notion of creating -- so far, we've been working with them a lot on the front end, and now we get to complement that on the back end, definitely for scale out and scale across and maybe even a little bit of scale up in some of these use cases.
The other thing we're seeing with a lot of these use cases is the lack of power insights and the ability and demand to distribute and get a more multi-tenant scale across is very high in these 2 use cases. A third common thread, we're seeing across of them, much as we all talk about ODM and white boxes, they deeply appreciate the U.S. and the features and the reliability and the observability and the -- just the fact that we have a robust, highly scalable Layer 2, Layer 3 stack commands a lot of superior advantages. So I believe the diversity of these cloud titans is largely due to the fact that we have great hardware and software combined. Ken, you want to say a few words on that?
It's just been an incredible journey to live through this and see the level of infrastructure that all we're getting and how well positioned our hardware and software road maps are to address these ever evolving more [indiscernible] use cases. [indiscernible] to get work on the store.
That's always fun when your job is a blast. So [indiscernible], I still see 1, maybe 2 10% customers. And Todd, hopefully, we can ship it -- sorry, Aaron.
And our next question will come from the line of Ben Reitzes with Melius Research.
There you go, Jayshree, here I am. So yes, I wanted to ask around constraints. Are you able to say what the number was in the quarter and what it's taking away in terms of the $2.8 billion guide? Is it safe to say things would have been $100 million or $200 million higher for both? And then if you don't mind, just if you can touch on why the gross margin should go back up to 63. What is it that you guys are doing that at gives us confidence that it can actually expand a tad from here?
Yes, I think I'll just -- Chantelle, [indiscernible] I think that -- I don't think the commentary about the demand outstripping the supply as of Q1, Q2. I think we're talking about looking ahead Q3, Q4 into next year. So I don't think there's something outside of what we've guided what we've delivered in the first half. I think in the sense of the margin. So the margin is a mix of things, right? And I think that all the team members are executing in full force. I think the supply chain is doing everything they can on ensuring that we have the best supply at the best price. And so we've incorporated that I think that the mix of customers, the only chance for mix expansion or margin expansion would be due to mix. And so I think that's the opportunity as we look to see what we can deliver in the second half then. I think that would be the opportunity.
The teams are also doing everything they can to make sure we control our costs, especially on the manufacturing side, and that includes bringing on secondary providers, calling new components, et cetera. to make our supply chain more resilient and more cost effective in [indiscernible].
And one thing to clarify also on gross margins. So we view this as a partnership with our customers. So while we would consider and have raised prices a little bit, unlike our competitors, we haven't done 2 pricing ceases. We haven't done major price increases. And the price increases really come into play once our backlog starts to reduce, right? So you won't see the impact of that. So our gross margins are a strong factor of cost going up and are still eating a lot of the costs and giving our customers the benefit and promise of the pricing we said we would give to them.
Our next question will come from the line of Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs.
I was just wondering if you could talk about whether or not Arista is seeing networking attach opportunities for customers that are using TPU or TPU like architectures. And then -- anything you could comment about as it relates to growing Neo cloud traction. Is that something that you think may be a little bit underappreciated by the analyst community.
Yes, Michael, you're absolutely right. I'll take your second question first. It's easy to talk about the titans because the numbers are so ginormous, right? But the new clouds are a very important sector because they don't always have the staff to do everything they want to do, and they really lean on Arista's design expertise, U.S. expertise, network design configurations we can provide them a family of 22 products we have in AI. So yes, I would agree with you. It's an underappreciated and the neocloud was very strong this quarter if I recall, Chantelle, for us in the specialty and cloud providers. What was the other question? You had 1a, 1b?
The TPU.
Yes, the TPU. So in general, we are seeing diverse accelerators. Last time I spoke about the AMD accelerators. This time, I will definitely give a nod to the TPUs because in particularly scale across use cases, we're seeing multi-tenants connecting to different AI accelerators, including TPUs as well. So I think the diversity of accelerators is creating tremendous multi-accelerator opportunity and multiprotocol features that we can provide for them in our network.
Our next question will come from the line of Sean O'Loughlin with TD Cowen.
Great. Congrats on the results, and thanks for letting me joining on the fun here. Jayshree, I wanted to get your thoughts on -- we've been talking a lot about agentic AI and the demands that it's placing on maybe some of the more general purpose infrastructure that we has been maybe in the background over the last couple of years. You've talked in the past about a 2:1 pressure on front-end networking created by back end. First, I guess, is that still the correct way to think about it? And second, as a genic workflows become more common, is there any additional demand from your perspective, having a single-image EOS platform on the front and the back end? Or is the front and back end still pretty siloed.
Yes. Well, first of all, Sean, welcome to your first call. It will be fun. Join the fun. So agentic AI, it's kind of a buzzword, but let me sort of break it into how -- the biggest killer application we see in agentic AI right now is still training. And indeed, it's going to move to more distributed inference. And we'd also like to see agentic AI move into a lot of enterprise use cases, all of which we're seeing, by the way, but I would say large, medium, small, the largest killer agentic AI application is training, the medium is enterprise and the smallest -- medium is inference and the small is obviously enterprise. The -- in terms of back end versus front end, we are now seeing way more back-end activity, particularly with our large AI titans and cloud titans because there is just so much scale they need to prepare for the billions of parameters and tokens, and this is where a lot of -- so much so that I think the front end, they might come back and refresh, but they're almost ignoring right now in favor of the back end.
Having said that, though, by virtue of the back-end deployments, I don't know if we any more see a 2:1 to the front end, but we at least see a 1:1. And the 1:1 can be wide area, CPU and storage. Those are probably the 3 common use cases. Not all the customers are up and lifting everything and doing all 3, although we've had cases where some of them did an upgrade at the front end before they went into the back end. But usually, they will have to come back to that because the minute you put that kind of performance pressure and scale on the back end, you almost have to do something in the front end. But at the moment, I would say it's more one-to-one. And at the moment, I'd also say the scale across in the back end has become a bigger use case than we imagined this time last year.
The other thing I had to mention here is just how good it feels to be have the same set of products in the same common operating system management suite and operating model across the front end and back-end. This lowers cost for the customer, simplifies their design process to get that leverage, and we're one of the few vendors who can do that.
I think only.
I think so.
I think only. Yes, absolutely. Good point, Ken.
Our next question will come from the line of Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.
Appreciate the question. Maybe just a question on XPO monetization or just how it helps you kind of continue to gain share with customers or just mind share with customers by being so front footed with the technology.
Yes. Thank you, Meta. I think as you know, we're not a classic optics vendor. But almost always, whenever we are selling our switches, you have to connect to something. And usually it's some form of copper or optics. So and these innovations with OSFP, I remember this super well where everybody was saying, "Oh, no, no, we can just use QSFP, has proven to be not only a contribution for Arista, but really for the industry-wide." And that's still how we see it with XTO as well.
While the industry has been talking a lot about copackage optics, these are still science experiments, and they're very proprietary with individual vendors doing their own thing. We embrace open CTO a few years from now, but we think XPO has a 10-year run, especially at 1.6T and [ 3 point T ] where you need liquid cooling and you need that kind of capacity. So all the scale up racks we're talking about wouldn't be possible without XPO or CPC or any one of those technologies. So we see this as just as the last decade was greatly influenced by OSFP. The next decade will be greatly influenced by XPO. And remember, 99% of the optical market today that we connect to is all pluggable optics. So this is a very crucial invention and innovation, not just for Arista, but the industry at large.
I think it's a great example of how Arista enables an ecosystem and then we profit as that ecosystem grows. And with XPO and [indiscernible] is a standard interop [indiscernible] way to get to 4x of [indiscernible] density in liquid cooling, which is absolutely critical for these AI use cases. Without that, you have this huge bottleneck at the front panel, the amount of extra rack stasis required to get through OSFPs. It's -- so we're really enabling the future growth of our industry this way, which we benefit and other benefit as well.
Yes. It's stunning to me. I remember, when I first talked to Andy and Vijay, they said, "Oh, we think we'll get about 20 signatures", and then it was 40, and now it's north of 100. So it tells me the whole consortium is coming together for things like Ethernet, IP and standardization of optics.
Our next question will come from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America.
I promised [indiscernible] to be nice today. So I have a good question for you.
I promised to be nice too.
Deferred revenues. Deferred revenues doubled in the last year. And it went up -- if I combine short term, long term, it went up $826 million. It went up significantly in the last 4 quarters. What needs to happen? What are the conditions for -- to recognize deferred revenues, meaning what needs to happen for deferred revenues to be recognized over the next few quarters? Is it about data center going live in traffic goes into data centers? Or what are the sources for the deferred revenue increase?
Right, right. So I really do like you. So I'm going to be nice to you not because I have to, because I like to. So I think if you remember 10 years ago, Tal, we had a similar phenomena where in the cloud, the whole Leaf spine design was brand new, nobody really knew how to build it or monetize it and we were building some of the world's largest networks for Azure, et cetera, right? And we had new products, they had new designs. They had done traditionally the access aggregation core and we're now moving to the flat pack topology. And we had some fairly lengthy qualification cycles. So I would say there's a customer aspect of it and a product aspect to it. The customer aspect to it is they need to have the space, they need to have the facilities. They need to have there. In this case, GPUs now back and then it used to be CPUs, they got to have their rack and stack. And in many cases, by the way, we're running into examples where they -- it's literally they need to manually install the cables, and that takes several months, right? Thousands of people have to do that.
So there's certainly a customer acceptance piece of it, which starts with being ready. There's also a new product. Many of these new products in the Arista ethylene family, particularly for the AI are brand new, brand-new chips, brand-new software, the familiarity with it, particularly in the back end was scale out and scale across is new to them. So there's a level of testing and level of making sure it works with the rest of their ecosystem, including the front end that is super important, and Arista bears a huge responsibility to that as well. So all just to tell you that the length of time to qualify this, which used to be 2 to 4 quarters has extended more like 6 to even 8 quarters. So it's gotten much longer. Chantelle, do you want to add something?
Yes. The other thing -- thank you, Jayshree, is that we do recognize some of it every quarter. So it's not like it's on balance, this is aging in [indiscernible]. We recognize things every quarter, things come in and things are recognized to the P&L. So I just want to make sure you understand that the...
It's not piling -- some things go in and some things come up. Yes. Does that make sense, that? Tal, you're on mute?
No, no.
[indiscernible].
We can go to the next question.
Our next question will come from the line of Amit Daryanani with Evercore.
I guess, Jayshree, you folks have kind of positioned XPO as the next OSFP. And I'd love to kind of understand that XPO ramps from the OFC demos to potentially deployments in '27, how do you see change in the optics architecture within AI clusters? And then maybe specifically Arista -- does that change the growth profile or your content per AI IRAC or cluster as we go forward?
Yes. Thank you, Amit. I think you should look at XPO as a partner to OSFP. So at 400 gig and 800 gig you'll be fine with OSFP. And as we go to higher speeds in '27, '28 or even beyond, OSFP will run out of steam, and this will be the new connector of choice. So the migration to higher speeds equals the migration to XPO, particularly for scale out and scale across. Within a rack and scale up, there's still a number of choices. I think within short distances of 2 to 3 meters, you're still going to see a lot of co-packaged copper and I think XPO in terms of density will be another alternative. But I don't rule out open CPO as well over there. They're really looking to maximize dedicity in a minimum amount of space. So I think XPO will be particularly prevalent in scale out and scale across and will be 1 of the choices in scale-up.
Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Koontz with Needham.
This is Jeff Hopson on for Ryan. I appreciate the question. On the scale cross, it seems like that would be a really good fit for all Arista's capabilities. And I know you mentioned it would maybe be around 1/3 of revenue this year. But is this something where scale across could even be larger than scale out over the next couple of years?
Ryan, or rather Jeff, I think the answer to that would lie on how well we do with both. And what form factors are used for both. So majority of the scale across today is a very premier valuables, heavy-duty routing platform, the 7800. So if we do lots of that, it could get well beyond the 30%. But some of them may do it with fixed boxes, too or fixed switches and choose to add a lot of cable in which case, it wouldn't go well above that. So we don't know what we don't know. But I would agree with you that scale across is by far the most significant and differentiated opportunity that really highlights Arista's prowess in both platforms and software.
Our next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.
Jayshree, maybe slightly related to the last question here. Just trying to think about, you said most of the cloud revenue near-term is going to be scale out and scale across as we wait for scale up to ramp. How are you thinking about your market share when it comes to scale out versus scale across in the early days of scale across, what are you seeing in terms of market share? And are you seeing customer decisions being led in scale across by sort of the incumbent and scale-out or -- is it a different decision altogether in terms of how they're designing vendors for in-force scale across.
Good question, Samik. You're making me think. So I would say If it's greenfield deployment, then they tend to think of it together because they're not only building the sites, but they're thinking of the interconnect across them. And therefore, market share is generally strong in both. In some cases, where Arista has not been a historical participant within the data center, we now have an opportunity to offer the scale across multi-tenant even in a non-greenfield situation and let's say, in a brownfield, where now they've got disparate data centers or AI clusters that we now have to bring in. And so once again, I think Arista's really fitting example to be in scale across both those use cases, but has the additional opportunity in a brand-new data center to be in all use cases, if that makes sense.
So it's giving us a chance to participate with different types of accelerators and different types of models because people aren't getting the power and they're having to distribute the data centers. And as a result of distribution, you need more traffic engineering, routing, multi-tenancy. So I would say scale across is the common denominator in all our use cases and scale up and scale out maybe nice options and brand-new greenfields.
Our next question comes from the line of Karl Ackerman with BNP Paribas.
Jayshree, you are doing more networking design today more than ever. Does that change your ability to monetize your services to capture more of the work of the other value that you're adding to these applications? And I guess as you address that, given the large mix of services revenue within deferred, could services revenue accelerate faster and represent perhaps 25% or 30% of sales going forward?
I don't think so, Karl. I think we're a product company, and majority of our revenue generation and interest in Arista as a company for all the designs we're doing comes from our product heritage. And it's not like we charge for services. In fact, we work closely with our partners also, we will recommend network designs. We will support services and certainly, things like we are the gold standard for worldwide support. But I don't expect services as a function of our revenue to go up. I continue to be -- see ourselves as a product-led company.
Our next question comes from the line of Matt Michman with Truist.
I just want to go back to gross margins. So I know we were sort of in that 62-ish range. They dipped about 170 bps year-on-year. And I wanted to dig into whether it was primarily mix related or maybe if you can quantify whether the -- how significant the memory and cost-related impacts were, if there's any color you can provide.
Yes, I think it's a great question. I would say the majority, if you look at -- even if you look at prior quarter or prior year, the majority of the difference is mix of the customers. And just to clarify, our larger customers have have a lower gross margin accretion. And so that mix is the primary driver. And then the secondary, although not as significant would be things depending on the quarter, depending how deferred moving tariffs or the memory cost or the silicon cost depending on the quarter. So secondary driver, but the primary drivers mix of the customer segments.
Our next question comes from the line of David Vogt with UBS.
This is Andrew for David. From a high level, with $2.4 billion almost of inventory and almost 2 years in COGS of purchase commitments, how should we think about the supply constraints and where that inventory and purchase commitments are not satisfactory to meet demand? Where are the holes in your inventory?
I wouldn't say we have holes in our inventory, but we have surging demand, especially on the newest platforms, which of course, is driving our need for the most modern silicon from our providers and it's driving need for an expanded amount of memory even more than we were expecting before the year began. So that's driving us to be a buyer in the market. Luckily, we've got pretty good spending power. We're a very reliable partner in these scenarios. And so we partner closely with these vendors. But there's no doubt that like the newest platforms that we're delivering, especially in the AI space is driving needs of ours in the high end of our portfolio.
Yes. And just to add to that, David, the real hole is lead times. We are experiencing such significant wafer fab shortages that we're not getting the chips in time. So more than a hole, I would just say our purchase commitments are multiyears because we're having to deal with forecasts that are out multiple years so that we get them in time because the lead time of these chips is so long. So I think that's the biggest hole lead times.
Yes, we are experiencing 52-week lead times pretty reliably with reservation needs beyond that, and our customers certainly do not want to wait that well.
Our next question comes from the line of James Fish with Piper Sandler.
Chantelle, maybe for you, the guide raise was primarily all on AI. Are you guys prioritizing these shipments or what's given the hesitancy around sort of the non-AI noncampus at this point and leaving that roughly flat still? And Jayshree, just for you, just as we think about the mix here on gross margin, -- what are you guys seeing in terms of Blue Box adoption now? And are you seeing any sort of net pull-in of demand just given you have a lot of smart customers here and they're very much aware of the supply chain constraints.
Yes. Thank you Thanks, James. I'll start with mine first in the sense of the order of your question. So I don't think we're saying because we're raising the revenue and a tribute to AI that we're not excited about all the other customer segments. I think you heard both Jayshree and I talk about -- we're very happy with how the year started, what we're seeing across all 3 customer segments. We're very happy what we're seeing in enterprise, which I wouldn't say is quite AI yet. So let's cover that as a non-AI bucket that you referred to. So wait and see, we're in Q1, reporting Q1. We'll see how the year goes. But we're very confident across all 3 that we're seeing strong demand. So I think I would leave it in the sense of let's see where we get to in our future quarter guidance. Jayshree?
And I would agree with that. Just to remind everybody, we've raised now from $10.5 billion or whatever we said last September to $11.5 billion. And yes, a high degree of that is AI, but we have aggressive commitments on the campus to go to a $1.25 billion quarter and continue to service and grow our data center and cloud as just as well. So all 3 are growing, but certainly, AI is taking the news headline. Regarding Blue Box adoption, one of the customer use cases you actually heard about was moved from -- that you heard from Ken moved from white box to Blue Box. And their goal right now is their desire to move to blue boxes, it works, number one. It scales too. It actually does the job for us with AMD Accelerators, number three. And down the road, they may use open operating systems, but they were very pleased with the diagnostics capability, the platform, SDK, where we literally rewrite every piece of software and bit twiddle all the Broadcom chip transistors very, very well and the EOS features. Down the road, they may use some open losses as well, but that would be a really good example of a blue box that has U.S. today and may go down to other losses.
And we continue to see that, particularly in the Neo clouds. We've always seen a bit of that in the cloud and AI titans because they know how to work with open noses. So we've had that hybrid strategy always, but we're certainly seeing more of that in the Neoclouds now.
Regina, we have time for one last question.
Our final question will come from the line of Ben Bollin with Cleveland Research.
Jayshree, you referenced inference a little bit earlier, so it's kind of a smaller use case right now. I'm interested on your thoughts on where you think enterprise is in terms of their ability to consume inference and create agents and then how that develops over time and where you think the network and edge networks are today and their ability to support those use cases. basically, just do we get the sustained investment period because what you're seeing now bleeds and becomes much more significant in enterprise? And how long lasting that might be?
Yes. No, then I tend to agree with your thesis that while today we are in a training fever, that a more distributed AI generic of AI paradigm with inferences, which means you don't always need the GPU. You're going to have high-end CPUs and you're going to have a smaller set of parameters and tokens to manage and you're going to have specific agentic AI use cases and applications. We're seeing very, very early trials and stages. Nothing super big yet. But we are seeing -- I mean, they're not in the hundreds of thousands of GPUs like you see on the AI titans. But we are frequently seeing our customers in certain high-tech sectors want to deploy clusters that are 1,000, few thousand, definitely not 10,000, but in hundreds of thousands. And they tend to be exactly, as you said, not training, but more inference based, more agentic AI edge influence space as well.
So I think we'll see more of that. This is -- this is the calm before the storm, if you will. And as we -- as the AI gets more distributed, I think it doesn't need GPUs alone, it's going to need more high-performance compute. And many of them seem to feel to us like high-performance compute, HPC use cases. that are sort of getting revived for AI. So I agree with your thesis, Ben. I think it's going to take a couple of years to fully happen.
This concludes Arista Networks First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. We have a presentation posted that provides additional information on our results, which you can access on the Investors section of our website. Thank you for joining us today and for your interest in Arista.
Thank you for joining. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Arista Networks, Inc. — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Arista meldet starkes Q1: Umsatz über Guidance, Guidance für 2026 angehoben, aber Lieferengpässe drücken Margen kurzfristig.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $2,71 Mrd. (+35,1% YoY), über Guidance ($2,6 Mrd.).
- Bruttomarge: 62,4% (innerhalb der Guidance 62–63%, rückläufig gg. Vorquartal 63,4%).
- Betriebsergebnis: $1,29 Mrd. bzw. 47,8% der Umsätze.
- Netto & EPS: Nettoeinkommen $1,11 Mrd.; verwässertes EPS $0,87 (+31,8% YoY).
- Barmittel: $12,35 Mrd. Cash; operativer Cashflow $1,69 Mrd.; ausstehende Rückkaufautorität $817,9 Mio.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- AI‑Fabrics: Drei AI‑Use‑Cases (Scale‑up, Scale‑out, Scale‑across) stehen im Mittelpunkt; Scale‑across und Scale‑out treiben Nachfrage, Scale‑up erwartet v.a. 2027/28.
- Produkte & Ökosystem: XPO (extended pluggable optics) als strategische Optik‑Innovation, breit unterstützt (>100 Partner), soll Dichte und Kühlung für hohe Bandbreiten verbessern.
- GTM & Diversifikation: Ausbau im Enterprise‑ und Service‑Provider‑Geschäft, Integration von VeloCloud, Fokus auf Automatisierung (AVD) zur schnelleren Rollout/Total‑Cost‑of‑Ownership‑Vorteilen.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- FY‑2026: Guidance erhöht auf ~27,7% Wachstum; Zielumsatz ~$11,5 Mrd.; AI‑Umsatzziel auf $3,5 Mrd. (vorher $3,25 Mrd.).
- Q2‑Leitplanken: Umsatz ~ $2,8 Mrd.; Bruttomarge 62–63%; Operativmarge 46–47%; verwässertes EPS ≈ $0,88; Steuersatz ≈ 21,5%.
- Risiken: Mehrjährige Lieferengpässe (Wafer, Speicher, Optiken) zwingen zu Vorabkäufen und können Margen kurzfristig belasten; Deferred‑Revenue‑Volatilität möglich.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Scale‑up vs. Scale‑across: Management sieht 5–7 Rack‑Design‑Opportunitäten; Scale‑up bleibt 2026 nahe 0, Ramp ab 2027 erwartet; Scale‑across soll ≥ ~1/3 des AI‑Umsatzes beitragen.
- Lieferengpässe: Nachfrage übersteigt Supply; Management vermeidet genaue Quantifizierung des Umsatzeinbruchs, betont multijährige Lead‑time‑Problematik (teilw. ~52 Wochen) und gezielte Mehrjahres‑Commitments.
- Deferred Revenue & Qualifizierung: Anstieg wegen Produkt‑Akzeptanzzyklen, manueller Installations-/Kabelarbeiten und längeren Validierungsphasen (teils 6–8 Quartale); Recognition erfolgt aber sukzessive.
⚡ Bottom Line
Starkes operatives Q1 und erhöhter Jahresausblick bestätigen Aristas Führungsrolle im AI‑Networking; kurzfristig bleibt das Wachstum durch lange Lieferzeiten und ergebniswirksame Vorabkäufe risikobehaftet, langfristig stärkt die XPO/AI‑Fokusposition die Marktchance.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Morgan Stanley Technology
1. Question Answer
Thank you for being here. I'll read some boring disclosures to kick off and allow you to open up your chips. So for any research disclosures, please see morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures and reach out to your sales representative with any questions. I am Meta Marshall. I cover the networking space here at Morgan Stanley. We are delighted to have Arista, Jayshree Ullal; and Ken Duda, a new special guest joining us on stage, who is President and CTO as well.
So Jayshree, welcome back. It's been a phenomenal couple of years for Arista since we last had you on stage. Just how do you think the core like value proposition of Arista has changed with kind of AI coming into the framework?
Meta, it's always good to be here. You must be my good luck charm. Every time I come, if we grow like that, I'll keep coming.
The value proposition, and Ken Duda, our Founder and President, started this hasn't fundamentally changed. But of course, the use cases to make it greater has changed. So we always started with the belief that mission-critical networking needs a foundational software, which started in the data center, as most of you know. And we're now the #1 market leader there. Great technology, great U.S., great merchant silicon and just a great product, but more importantly, a great system. We began with this belief that you had to build a great system with our leaf-spine architecture, but then the leaf got plentiful.
Our Universal Spine connects today to campus leaves, enterprise leaves, branch leaves with our Bella Cloud acquisition. And of course, I have to say AI. With the advent of AI, we have been able to build this very unique architecture that no one else in the market has, which is an all-Ethernet, AI spine and leaf that takes advantage of all the goodness that we brought to bear in the data center. So I call this the centers of data era, where whether it's a data center, campus center, WAN center, AI center. We are able to build that uniformity in our network and yet deal with the heterogenity that's coming in front of us with different frontier models and different AI accelerators.
Got it. We get a lot of questions about blue boxes, branded boxes, white boxes, just what do you think that, that conversation -- I'm sure you guys get many of the same questions, like what do you think that, that misses about the value proposition of what people get from Arista?
Yes. I'm going to tell a little story and Ken, if you don't mind, you'll continue the story. Although we won't censor your version versus mine here.
When I started with Arista and I said, oh, we're going to build another switch? I was frankly thinking, I've done enough of that in Cisco, why would I ever do another switch? But what Arista has done is not just build yet another switch, but really build purpose-built network mission-critical platforms that have different use cases.
And part of having those different use cases is we had to make sure we could take different merchant silicon and ignite it and make it better. Because silicon leaders need better software to ignite them.
A white box would be a cacophony of an existing silicon, their STK, open losses. And I'm not saying anything negative about that except to say, the use cases are more limited. A blue box -- and then, of course, a purpose-built EOS is what can really sort out to develop. Maybe you can add a few words on that.
Yes. Look, I think that what we've shown is that networking software is tremendously important. That without the right software running across the network, the network just does not have the reliability, stability, flexibility that it needs by having one operating system, EOS versus extensible operating system running across the whole fleet, whether it's campus, cloud, WAN, data center, all running the same software. It simplifies things so dramatically for our customers that they're able to qualify one release, have one platform to automate against.
And it's just -- and its reliability applies across the whole thing. There are use cases for white box, but that requires advanced engineering on part of the customer. The customer has to figure out how to integrate white box with software into their overall network management suite. It is not for the faint of heart, okay? And we're seeing that the vast majority of companies need a network that works that they can count on and one OS is the path, the simplest, most reliable infrastructure.
Got it. I mean, right now, there's a lot of new data builders or data center builders in the market, they all might have certain aspirations of what they think that they can do. You might have better insight into what you think that they can do. Just where do you find that kind of mesh of what is the best product for that customer?
Well, I think we're all struggling with one common problem. Power, right? So if these data center builders can actually find the location, the colos and have the power to ignite it more power to them, really, right, because that's become the biggest scarcity.
And today, we're not talking about building a megawatt data center power, right? Everything is being translated into hundreds of megawatts and often gigawatts of power. Because of not just the CPUs or compute as we know it, but these powerful accelerators, whether it's GPUs, TPUs or the AMD accelerators. So the pressure that's putting on the power is really making us work with these builders and models to come up with at least three use cases that we see.
One is scale up, which is how you scale all of the compute capacity, especially in the back end of AI accelerator network. And typically, a scale-up configuration is a more limited configuration within a rack, if you will, where you might be connecting 100 or 1,000 or a few thousand GPUs. Power is somewhat constrained there. But at the same time, the surface area requires you to pack dense amount of cables and optics in that scenario. And by the way, a lot of times, people will use proprietary technologies like NVLink or PCI switching. We're big believers of Ethernet, and we're going to see -- we believe we're going to see an Ethernet for scale-up, E.SUN standard coming out this year that will further that.
The other is the scale out, which is how do you connect all of these racks together. And this is where Arista has literally flourished. A lot of our AI business is coming from the GLA configurations, but that takes advantage of all of the rich protocols, the telemetry, the availability, the visualization the intense features we've been working on for the last 15 years, in particular, for AI over the last 3 to 5 years. And so again, that's a power hogger and every kilowatt matters there. Because it's not just a GPU that's contributing the most, but the compute, the storage, front end, back end, and obviously, the network as well.
And then what we're seeing more and more with these colos is they're not able to get the power. And therefore, they're building many more distributed AI centers because if you can only get a gigawatt, you take the gigawatt you build as large as the stadium can bill and then you move across to another one. This distributed scale out of XPUs is also a huge use case for us because now not only do you have to deal with the different types of accelerators but you have to deal with isolating them segmenting them, traffic engineering across them, again, routing across these data centers in a coherent fashion, short, long distances. So power is a culprit in all three. But I think in order to deal with the power, we're coming up with different ways to centralize or distribute the designs.
Got it. With this now massively growing TAM, there's a lot of, kind of, competitors in the market, whether from white box, branded, silicon, software. Just how are you thinking about maintaining and expanding your ability to kind of capture your share of this TAM?
Look, I'm going to point to Ken first and say, if you don't have a network that works in an innovative differentiated product, we can never maintain share. I think what the company has done throughout, not just now, white boxes have been with us since we started shipping product 15 years ago, is to always coexist with it, build our value chain across, like I said, we have 22 Etherlink products in AI that have nothing to do with white box. They all complement that with the use cases.
So I think a great product platform is our greatest differentiator. Having said that, the other very important part of how we'll be working is with our ecosystem of partners. We see a world where it won't be just one homogeneous AI accelerator but it will really be a heterogeneous world with TPUs, AI accelerators, some of them may be built by specific vendors like AMD, some may be built in-house by our Cloud Titan customers themselves. And so having a common homogeneous network infrastructure for all of that heterogeneity is going to be very important as well as the model builders.
I don't see a world where it's ChatGPT's, the winner or Cloud's the winner or Gemini's the winner. Certainly, those three are going to be prominent, but there's going to be many more. And again, just as we lived in a multi-protocol networking world, we're going to live in a multi-model AI world.
Got it. Another question that we often get, I'm sure you're tired of is just you've had leading margins for a long time. How do you keep margins against this backdrop? And just where do you think those additional areas are for value capture?
There's two aspects to our margin, and maybe even three. One is what is our hardware cost and how much will the customer pay for that? And you would be surprised to know that the significant value-add and differentiators in our hardware, we don't just throw a bunch of chips. The huge amount of signal integrity. Every power -- watt of power we save translates to millions of dollars. Every latency, megabit, nanosecond we're saving translates to millions of dollars.
So I think there's a growth underestimation on the total cost of ownership of providing better performance, better hardware, high ratings, et cetera. And Ken's team has been -- I think your hardware engineering team is now doubled or tripled for AI. There's another whole aspect of it now, which is liquid cooling. So don't underestimate the power of amazing hardware designed over the last 10, 15 years for the right performance, availability, power constraints. That therefore, the customer willing to pay value because they don't want -- these are not throwaway toys.
These have to be there with them for 5 to sometimes even been 10 years, right? And then there's a software, I'm going to lean on you to talk about some of the huge differentiators. The combination of which often a customer looks at it and says, yes, you're worth a premium? Not because I want to pay you more, but because you don't come down and you have higher quality and but just better products.
Yes.
The software is absolutely key to where the margin comes from in certain segments of our markets. We have many -- we have addressed many markets, as you well know, for the hyperscalers, the big AI companies, but also into the enterprise, and government, health care and so on. And especially on the enterprise side, the margin comes from the fact that we have better software.
It is easier to deploy and operate. It's consistent across the whole suite. It works and it's all managed through a single cloud vision management console, which manages the whole estate from the campus to the data center, to the WAN, into the Cloud. And when you're able to deliver that kind of a consistent experience, a network the customer can really count on. And it is so much easier to manage and automate against, you can command a higher margin.
Got it.
I just want to add one thing, though, to that. Sometimes we don't command a higher margin. I want to be clear, too, right? In very large Cloud Titan situations where they may be using an open NOS certain products are lower margins. So it's -- you guys get to see the mix of our high, low and medium margin. So it's not always that we have a perfectly high margin. But the combination of it looks good to you.
All right. Perfect. You just spent some time talking about scale up, scale out, the scale across opportunity has gotten a lot more attention of late as a lot of traffic becomes north-south versus east west and training gets done between data centers because of power constraints. Just how do you see that opportunity for scale up emerging for you guys -- sorry, scale across emerging for you guys?
Scale across? Yes. We have been pleasantly surprised by the adoption of scale across. And think of it as a 2-step or a one-step removal from connecting the XPUs, right? So even in customers where we were not connecting their XPUs, because they had their own optical switch or they already had a prior design. We're now getting a unique opportunity to connect to their accelerators, one hop away through these distributed data centers that they have to build because as I said, the name of the game right now is multi-tenancy.
It's not just one homogenous AI accelerator. But as they want to access these colos, they don't have a product that can do multi-protocol routing EVPN, segment routing, traffic engineering, simple things like security and encryption, and also MSS or multi-domain segmentation becomes important because I don't want the traffic from one set of accelerators to talk to another. And yet, I have to do all these AI build-outs. So the flagship product for this that Arista has been developing for some time is our AI spine, the 7800.
We launched it late last year and running at 800 gigabits and providing this kind of real-time throughput with a rich set of features is very unique to Arista and describes the value of Arista in a tremendous way.
I could just emphasize something Jayshree said is that combination of having the raw performance characteristics that AI workloads require in terms of a load balancing, the buffering latencies, reliability, delivery of packets. It's a sheer throughput. Having those sort of low level of traffic characteristics. At the same time, as you have all the advanced features that she was talking about, the routing, security, the isolation and segmentation quality of service. Having those together on one platform, all managed coherently is a good differentiator for us.
And it took us about 3 to 5 years to build that. So it's a nontrivial effort.
Okay. All right. I'm not going to make it out of this room alive unless I ask you about the cloud titans. So...
We want you alive.
Yes, exactly. You made waves on the earnings call, noting the potential for 1 to 2 more 10% customers this year while still seeing growth in your other two cloud titans. Just -- that was a big statement. Just how should investors think about these kind of two more emerging kind of customers?
Look, I'm going to keep working hard to increase the denominator so that we don't have 10% customers. But the reality is these are large purchases. These are long-time partners. I fully expect customer A and B to continue to be 10% customers, maybe the percentages will vary by year. But the reason I expect we will have they might be high single digit or a 10% customer is the spend is just tremendous, right?
I know you guys track CapEx more than I ever do. And while our CapEx is very small compared to everything else they buy, it is very clear to us that the combination of the front-end clouds. But now the AI as a huge Copilot assistant to it is having an effect, not just on our titans, but I would also say on our AI specialty providers and some of the Neoclouds. So I think our base has got bigger. Our opportunity and TAM doubled in the last few years from $60 billion to $105 billion. And so you would expect us to cross the $10 billion mark this year. We were 9 last year. I think we've signed up to north of 11 now. But that won't be enough. I know we have to go into the teams and beyond. So naturally, that kind of result expects a customer base, therefore, that we'll spend. And we're certainly very intimately involved in co-designing and making that possible.
Got it. Kind of a couple of follow-up questions that I've gotten since the quarter and since that announcement is just all four of these customers kind of be the same use case, so it highlights the breadth of Arista's portfolio. Is it the same as these kind of 100,000 clusters you guys have been talking about for the past couple of years?
No, not at all. I think if I look back a couple of years ago, the benchmark was how big and bad is your GPU? And we too got strung along by that. But today, I would say it's not how many thousand GPUs in my building and cluster. It's more what's the aggregate going to be? Because they may build small ones and then go scale across and therefore, have a million GPUs. So they may start out with small racks and scale up.
So we fully expect to see all use cases for AI shine in this number, scale up, scale out and scale across. But more importantly, we also expect to see the front end of the cloud connecting to them as well and get some refreshes. So it isn't just isolated AI. It's a combination of AI and cloud networking as well.
Okay. And then another question that we get is just -- is it always going to be the end customer that counts as the 10%? Are some of these model builders that might be using kind of different data center builder partners, kind of who is the customer and who's kind of mandating that networking decision?
I think we've taken a pretty pure approach to it. So we don't count the influencers, we count the end customer, right? Influencers could become a large end customer over time or decide to do something different themselves. But we're pretty clear that the channel isn't the customer, the end customer is the one.
Okay. And then there's a lot of -- we've talked a lot about the Neoclouds. There's a lot of data center builders popping up. But obviously, kind of require some level of prioritization from you guys just in terms of kind of how to judge some of those opportunities. So how are you doing that?
I think this is an excellent question. I'll kick it off and -- we do have a vast number of requirements, clearly from the AI sector, but don't underestimate our commitment and investment to the enterprise. We've got a very large set of customers now over there. We have over 10,000. Our specialty providers also include service providers. So we keep them all in balance.
And we look at this as not just a near-term priority, but who and what are we in 3 to 5 years so that we don't get seduced by, the hottest thing we can do now and forget them. So Ken's team works very closely with Todd Nightingale, our Co-President and myself and the product management teams to prioritize, prioritize, prioritize. Because no matter how many engineers you add, it's never enough, is it?
Never enough. The other thing I'd like to add here is, this is another example of what an advantage it is to have one operating system. Because when I'm building new platforms for AI use cases, when I'm building new software features, targeting a hyperscaler operator, I can then leverage those in other segments as well. So we're getting that sort of -- that alignment between our different efforts. And so we are able to do both at the same time, because we operate as one big software team on a common software platform.
Got it. We get a lot of consternation from investors around NVIDIA and Spectrum X, particularly at Meta. Just are there any meaningful changes to how you see your relationship with the Cloud Titans and maybe kind of how you see NVIDIA as a participant within the networking market?
Sure. Well, first of all, shout out to Jensen. He's just done a tremendous job of building the world's best accelerators. That being said, we are going to work with all accelerators and build the world's best networks, especially if they're Ethernet. So -- and I think the two can coexist. And I'm really grateful to see this whole bunch of accelerators crop up because it gives us greater opportunity to connect those networks. So NVIDIA is very much a partner when it comes to the accelerator side. NVIDIA is very much a competitor if you look at their Mellanox division and they're trying to push NVLink or InfiniBand or even their own version of Spectrum X, where they have a natural tendency to bundle everything together. It's only normal, right?
So I like to focus on the positive side of this because there's so many more accelerators to commit to than worry about the vending. More specific to Meta or any other partner, our position and our partnership has not changed. We continue to co-develop with Meta. Our partnership is as strong as ever. And we see occasional blips depending on their purchase behaviors when they skip a service cycle or, whatever, you've seen that in the past. But I think Meta's just being smart about working with multiple accelerator vendors and making sure that the network partner of choice continues to be one they can closely work with.
If I could expand on that just a little bit. I wanted to point out that in the context of NVIDIA. There's been -- they've been very successful at the back-end networks interconnect GPUs. But our Cloud Titan customers, certainly including Meta, have much more broad and diverse networking needs than that. So if you're talking about the backbone, talk about the data center spine. You're talking about the access networks. That's a place where I think Arista is well differentiated and it's very strong.
That's a really good point. Back end and front end have to come together and almost always Arista is always the chosen one in the front end.
Exactly.
Got it. I know you've kind of talked about this, Jayshree, that it's getting a little bit harder to kind of distinguish what is AI, what is traditional networking at some of these customers. Do you think that kind of people just get too obsessed with, okay, what is the AI number versus just kind of what is the cloud number in general?
I agree with you. At first, I tried to be very pure and say only the first connection to the AI accelerator is back end. And -- but then I found that people were counting optics as AI and so everything is getting whitewashed with AI, right? We're still trying to be very careful and look at AI as at least the first and second half. But I do think people need to pay attention to, if the AI spend is really high, chances of them doing a refresh on the front end or the cloud may get delayed, or they may do it ahead of time like one of our cloud titans did before they do the AI refresh. So not all of these happen together. They happen in waves. And so if we have a first wave with AI and we don't get much cloud spend, Remember, there's time for that later, right? And so they do go together, but they don't happen at the same time. That's an important thing.
Okay. Got it. Maybe talking about optics for a second. We've heard a lot about optical circuit switching and the opportunity for optical vendors, at least some of them talking about kind of partially being at the expense of spine switching. Just -- where do you see kind of optical circuit switching fitting into the market? And are they more symbiotic than people think about?
I think they're more symbiotic. There may be a couple of use cases, but we have seen optical switching mostly and predominantly in a couple of customers in scale up. We don't see any optical switching in the scale across, although you can't put coherent optics if that's what you call, but that's not quite optical switching. So where there are 7,800 spines, there almost always is a VR, ZR+ or some sort of coherent optics that we're connecting to.
But other than that, we've not seen any disruptive designs that make optical the only one choice. And there's a simple reason for that. People need not just the plumbing to connect, but the intelligence to get the performance, the package, the forwarding, the quality of service the security, so they wouldn't risk their expensive AI clusters to just do layer one switching. They want much more.
Yes. maybe moving that conversation to CPO. There's been a lot of talk about whether we're going to -- we've had little introductions kind of on the scale-out side. There's kind of talk about there being larger introductions on the scale upside. Just where do you see kind of CPO timelines? How do you -- Andy has obviously been very involved in this over time?
Yes, he's been very vocal. But I want to say on behalf of Andy, he's not an anti co-packaged optics. He's pro good co-packaged optics. And that's what we haven't seen for the last 10 years. It's largely been in the labs, right? So first, first and foremost, I think it's important to understand that the versatility of optics, particularly within a data center or across is highest with pluggable optics.
If you can build the right form factor like Arista pioneered with OSFP and continue that over 800 gig, 1.6T, 3.2T, I think you'll see that as the 80%, maybe even today, 90% of the user case. Because it's so reliable, it's pluggable, it's versatile. You can change your mind, you can mix, you can match, et cetera. Now there are places for co-packaged both copper and optics. I think co-package copper in a more limited radius within a scale-up, if you can be 2 to 3 meters would be good enough and more cost-effective less power. Co-packaged optics, we will become real fans of it. if we can make it open and standard spaced. We think that's super important. Otherwise, you end up having one vendor situations, where one vendor is doing one type of CPO and another and another. So we're not fans of that, but we will really embrace CPO when it's more open and standard spaced.
If I could just emphasize one thing that Jayshree just said there. the openness and interoperability is core to networking. And so many companies in our space attempt to capture the market with a single vendor proprietary solution. I can give you a long list of these IPX/SPX Network, DecNetLab,SNA. AppleTalk, LocalTalk, Net Pilots, Net Buoy on and on. It's a graveyard of technologies because open and interoperable wins every time in the market. And we're going to see InfiniBand go the same direction, by the way. And so the -- this is where taking CPO from a vendor proprietary technology to an open pluggable interoperable standard. Like all of the other optical standards are, I think is going to make the difference between it being viable and nonviable.
Got it. Alphabet soup of technology graveyards for those.
A few more for those who have pre-2000.
Yes, we'll see how the transcript capture all of those. All right. So we spent the vast majority of the time talking about the data center market. You guys have also been scaling the campus opportunity and the enterprise opportunity continues to be important. Just how are you seeing -- is the primary opportunity on the campus side still with existing data center customers? How are you taking advantage of kind of the HPE Juniper dislocation?
Yes. Actually, the dislocation started post COVID. It wasn't a vendor-specific one. We chose to enter at a time where suddenly no offices were being built. And there was -- we used to talk about the carpeted headquarters and the remote branches and none of that mattered anymore. It was one homogenous system where everybody was working remotely and the user had to carry their credentials, whether they were in a hotel or Starbucks or at home or office in the post-COVID era.
So I think that was a unique disruption that, therefore, gave us an opportunity to really build a wired and wireless homogenous system and take advantage of that same leaf spine architecture. Before I turn it to Ken to give more details of some unbelievable innovations you have done to make Layer 2 function better, which is a large part of campus. What I would say is we're starting -- initially, we saw a lot more of our existing customers, adopt our campus, but we're starting to see a nice blend of both. I would say we see about 40% new customers and 60% existing right now and the shift to more and more new customers is happening
Yes. No. I mean we're seeing also plenty of campus first customers, meaning customers who first purchased from Arista is for the campus. Campus is not a follow-on or just an add-on. It's a first-class initiative. And one of the reasons for that is the innovation that we brought to campus by integrating the wired and wireless management, being able to deploy into whether it's a branch or a small campus or even a large one, the wired and wireless together.
Too many of our competitors view them as these completely separate things, where wireless comes with its own complexity, its own set of controllers you have to deploy. We have a controller-less solution. We've taken the wired side and wireless side and made them work better together, both from a management point of view, but also just from a sheer control playing point of view, using the wired routed infrastructure, as essentially like a mobile IP infrastructure for mobile campus clients.
Because support hundreds of thousands of campus clients in a completely flat IP space, so anyone can go anywhere across a large campus with seamless fast routing across the whole infrastructure. And we've really raised the bar, I think, on...
We've also done some pretty incredible things like SWAG, the stackable open architecture. So I think we again brought more open standards and innovation to a somewhat stagnant set of technologies in the campus. It's been kind of fun to see that. And security. A lot of segmentation and Zero Trust security inside the campus as well.
Okay. In Q3 -- on Q3 results, you noted that there were some kind of constraints on the part of your customers that kind of limited some upside. Just what are you seeing as the biggest bottleneck that your customers are facing?
What did I say in Q3?
Just that there were some bottlenecks to your customers that were in selling equipment that was just kind of making it back towards you.
Oh. Look, I don't know if I was referring to supply chain or what the context was, but while we have solved many supply chain issues, I think the one in front of us in Q3 and actually, we realized it more acutely in Q4 is memory. Obviously, we're in a conference where I'm sure that's discussed a lot. And memory goes through these cycles. But I think because of the high adoption of memory in automotive sector in AI sectors, specifically servers, we're seeing some real shortages there. It's affecting our customers. We're doing everything we can to lean in and overcome it. I think it's going to be a 2-year problem that actually separates the wheat from the chaff. And so we're making significant investments and purchase commitments in chips in silicon and memory to make that possible.
Got it. Any questions from the audience as we wrap up? All right. You're all too busy.
All right. Well, this has been a great conversation. Jayshree, Ken, thank you so much for being here today.
Thank you. Thank you for having us.
Thanks, everybody.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Morgan Stanley Technology
Arista Networks, Inc. — Morgan Stanley Technology
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Arista betont, dass sich das Wertversprechen nicht grundlegend geändert hat: zuverlässige, softwaregesteuerte Netzinfrastruktur für mission‑critical Data‑Center‑Workloads, jetzt erweitert auf AI‑Zentren, Campus und verteilte Rechenzentren.
- AI‑Position: Fokus auf ein einheitliches, all‑Ethernet "spine‑and‑leaf"‑Design inklusive spezialisierter AI‑Spine (7800) für hohe Throughput‑ und Telemetrieanforderungen.
- Softwarefirst: Ein einheitliches Betriebssystem (EOS, Extensible Operating System) bleibt Differenzierer gegenüber White‑Box‑Lösungen.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Produkt: 7800 AI‑Spine (800G) als Flaggschiff für Scale‑out/Scale‑across‑Topologien; starke Investitionen in Hardware‑Engineering und Kühlung (Liquid Cooling).
- Ökosystem: Koexistenz mit White‑Box‑Ansätzen, aber Fokus auf End‑to‑End‑Systemwerte (Signalintegrität, Latenz, Total Cost of Ownership) plus enge Co‑Design‑Beziehungen mit Cloud‑Kunden.
- Offenheit: Pro‑Offenheit bei Co‑Packaged Optics (CPO) — nur bei offenen Standards wird CPO aktiv unterstützt; pluggable Optics bleiben dominierend.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- TAM & Wachstum: Management nennt eine Verdopplung des TAM von etwa $60bn auf $105bn und sieht Einstieg in >$10bn Umsatzjahr (letztes Jahr ~ $9bn; jetzt North of $11bn in Signings).
- Engpässe: Memory‑Knappheit wird als wesentliches Limit identifiziert; Management erwartet, dass dies ~2 Jahre wirkt und sie bereits Vorabkäufe tätigen.
- Mix: Cloud‑Titanen bleiben dominant Kunden (weiterhin 10%‑Kunden möglich); gleichzeitig Ausbau von Campus/Enterprise (ca. 40% Neukunden im Campus).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- White‑Box vs. Arista: Kritische Nachfrage zu Wettbewerb; Management argumentiert, White‑Box erfordert hohen Integrationsaufwand beim Kunden und bietet weniger System‑Funktionalität.
- Margen‑Erhalt: Analysten fragten nach Margendruck – Antwort: Kombination aus Hardware‑Differenzierung, Software (EOS/CloudVision) und Services rechtfertigt Premium; Mixeffekte möglich.
- Power & Architektur: Viele Fragen zur Power‑Knappheit und zu Scale‑up/scale‑out/scale‑across; Arista nennt Power als Engpass, sieht verstärkte Verteilungs‑/Colo‑Modelle und Segmentierung als Wachstumstreiber.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Relevanz: Das Management liefert kein radikal neues Zahlenwerk, sondern operationalisiert Aristas AI‑Narrativ: Fokus auf System‑Leistung, einheitliche Software und Offenheit. Kurzfristig könnten Memory‑Engpässe und Kunden‑Mix Volatilität erzeugen; mittelfristig stärkt die 7800‑Plattform Aristas Marktposition in AI‑Netzwerken.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Bernstein Insights: What's next in tech? - 4th Annual Tech
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. I think we're about to get started. Just a brief intro. I'm Mark Newman, Bernstein's U.S. IT hardware analyst. I'm joined on the stage on the far end by my colleague, Daniel Zhu, who is Bernstein's new networking analyst. And Daniel and I are delighted to welcome Arista's, John McCool. John is Arista's Chief Platform Officer and Senior Vice President as well as Special Adviser to the CEO. John has been at Arista for 9 years and prior to Arista had more than 35 years executive networking experience, including being SVP of Dell EMC and 17 years at Cisco. And on my left here, Rudolph is Arista's Head of investor advocacy and has been at Arista for 9 years as well as another 13 years of networking and cybersecurity experience prior to Arista.
So I think given the huge shifts we're seeing in the space, it's a great honor to have both of you here today.
Thank you for having us.
So I'll get started, and then I'll hand over to Daniel. So perhaps a very high-level question just to kick off on AI. The AI opportunity is clearly huge. Can you talk about how you're viewing the AI opportunity, how it's evolving and risks and opportunities for Arista?
Sure. So I think, clearly, Ethernet has a place in this AI opportunity. I think if we went back a couple of years ago, there was a question, what role does Ethernet have connecting what we call the back-end network, connecting GPUs and clusters. We've made substantial progress, not just as Arista, but as an industry in the standardization and development of that back-end network. And then the interconnect of these clusters, we call the front-end network also grows tremendously along with the challenges of power consumption. People want to connect multiple clusters across large numbers of physical locations to get power effectively. So that's kind of the framework that we think about the Ethernet opportunity.
Yes. I mean I think the other thing that is clearly manifest is the networks are getting larger, right? I mean you can't throw enough compute at the problem apparently. So now how do you build these larger and larger networks that are still just as efficient. So I think lots of room for innovation there, and we've done well for the last 20 years by innovating and really continue to drive the performance bar higher and higher. And I think in the AI networks, it shows itself up even more.
I guess kind of adding on to that, how are you seeing the evolution of the AI opportunity between front end and back end and also between scale-up, scale-across and scale-out?
Sure. Do you want to start?
Yes, I can start. So one is it's -- we're, I suppose, lucky in the sense that our products are very fungible, right? The same products can work in a front-end network, in a back-end network. And what it gives customers is that flexibility. So it's a little bit harder for us now to parse out like what is front end versus back end. And customers, I think, are increasingly finding that these networks are kind of blurring together, right? I used this analogy in one of our group meetings earlier today, where if you're on your Instagram app and you're trying to look like a Cowboy, is that front end? Is that classic data center? Is that back end? Like where does that line get drawn, right? So that's kind of one thing.
The good news is all of that growth has been good and great for our business. Then talking about scale-up, scale-out, scale-across. So a couple of things to remember. Like scale-up is really within the context today of the rack, but it's starting to go beyond a rack, right? And this is kind of the highest speed network, if you will. It connects to the memory, but it is also, in some sense, the simplest network, right, because there's not as much complexity kind of involved there. That's an opportunity that today is really captive since the bulk of the accelerators being used out there come from NVIDIA, it's really an NVLink is the protocol that's used a proprietary protocol. So it's not much of an opportunity today, but there are some efforts called Ethernet for scale-up networking is a term that you hear quite a bit.
So we view that as an opportunity for Arista probably in '27 at the earliest. So not something that we include in our TAM right now. Scale-out has been the bulk of that AI revenue. That's where you're connecting across racks, maybe even across buildings that are relatively close to each other, right? And then scale-across is something that's come up fairly recently, let's say, over the last year, but it's frankly a concept that's existed for a while, right? Because if you have data centers across multiple locations, how do you interconnect those data centers. AI brings some unique challenges there, but you've got to think about things like routing and encryption and traffic engineering once you start going. So I think that for us is a very exciting opportunity because it takes a unique set of platforms, which there's not that many companies that have those.
It plays to our strength that we've had in traditional cloud. What we saw in traditional cloud was the same phenomena. How can I connect as many CPUs as I can in the data center? And once we were able to scale ECMP very wide, those data centers provided not enough power. And then we had -- that was actually our impetus to develop routing to add another layer across. The same thing is happening with GPUs and the power consumption is more constrained. So you want to have a broader number of data centers that look like one logical GPU cluster.
Got it. And just double-clicking on that because I think -- sorry, I think the scale-across opportunity is a little bit less well understood by investors. How do you think investors should think about sort of dimensioning that opportunity? And how do the competitive dynamics differ from the opportunities within the 4 walls of the data center?
Sure. Maybe I'll start with the competitive dynamics. These are highly sophisticated networks, need strong routing convergence time, need capability like encryption end-to-end, need multiple optical type of support, so variations in the type of optics dependent on the physical locations of these different data centers. So it's extremely sophisticated. It plays to the strength that we have in our modular platforms, which have a virtual output queuing architecture with deep buffers to deal with the distances involved and plays to our traditional strength. And as Rudolph said, very few suppliers can compete in that kind of environment.
Just a reminder for the audience, we do have an app. You can submit your question there. We'll get to some time at the end, questions for the audience, you can enter in the app or if you prefer to ask live, we'll offer an opportunity to do that with a microphone as well.
So I think kind of speaking a little bit about architectures, I think within AI, we've seen a shift from AI model training being very dominated by pretraining to one that has more of a component of kind of post-training and test time compute as well as inferencing ramping a little bit more. How does that impact sort of the network architecture design that you guys are seeing? And how does that impact your networking opportunity?
Yes. I think that the increase in this pretraining activity brings broader storage and more machines into play, which really drive that next layer of the architecture and that front-end network as well as pulling data from different data centers and that scale-out capability. When we move to an inferencing environment, we think a little bit about the user interaction, which adds a latency component to the question. So you input something, it has to be computed back-end network and then get back to you. So it really interacts across the whole dimension of that network. And we see enterprise customers thinking through their next-generation campus networks and how that will impact them.
We had one discussion in the early days of training where one of our large hyperscalers talked about the things they hadn't thought about. So they were so focused on that back-end network. They really hadn't thought about the dimensioning of the front-end network and how that was impacted by pulling in the storage data. And one thing I thought was interesting was on the wide area network. If all the content that we're getting from AI is individualized now. We're not all watching the same cat video. We're watching different cat videos. It can't be cached. So some of these wide area networks were designed with caching capability to kind of eliminate some of the bottlenecks on the back end. So there'll be pressure all the way to the user as this becomes more of a widespread opportunity on inferencing.
There's also things like RAG and stuff like that, that are kind of expanding the aperture of what connectivity is needed, right? So it's not as simple as, look, I've got these or 5,000 or 50,000 GPUs that I'm just trying to interconnect, which is, in a sense, a simpler problem. Once you start having to go beyond just the resources that you control and you own and you're trying to connect the service on the Internet, maybe you're trying to connect to your database that sits in a different location. It just opens up more complexity. And I think one thing that I'd say as a takeaway is complexity has been Arista's friend, right, because more complex networks require higher levels of R&D, higher levels of engineering. And all the way from Andy and Ken, who started this company, I think we've shown that we can innovate better than most.
So is there still a lot of experimentation going on with the cloud customers in terms of how they deploy GPUs and networking to -- in response to power and cooling requirements. Is there still a lot of experimentation? Or are you seeing more of a consensus for the direction forward in terms of how it is done?
Experimentation on one angle, but the intensity of the power consumption and the cooling becomes a question even within a single customer of where I'm deploying and what kind of capability I have in that data center. So if you have a modern data center with liquid cooling, maybe that customer -- and a lot of power, I'm trying to affect the highest level of GPU density within that form factor. I may have legacy data centers that I don't have any liquid cooling. I will still want to air cool, but still have some capability in there. So there's a broader diversity of physical form factors to meet the market needs than I think we've seen. And I don't know whether that gets better. People started to standardize in cloud on not only just leaf-spine to directions, but the width of the rack, x86 GPUs, there just seems like there's going to be more diversity because we're on the edge of that power and cooling dynamic.
And some might take offense to the word experimentation, I guess, but the space of innovation, which is I think the point you're making is not slowing down, right? Like to give everyone an anecdote, we introduced our 400-gig platforms in 2019. We introduced our 800-gig platforms in 2024. So call it, 5 years. It's not going to take 5 years to go from 400 gig to 800 gig. It's definitely not going to take 5 years to go from 800 gig to 1.6. So what that is leading to is a lot of experimentation and trying out different things because ultimately, what they're trying to optimize is power utilization, time to first token, job completion times, being able to generate more tokens per dollar, more tokens per kilowatt, like all of these things are -- so they're willing to try pretty much anything.
The utilization of the GPUs, you want to maximize the utilization of the very expensive assets.
Exactly. Exactly.
I guess since we've talked a little bit about sort of the technology road map and 800 gig versus 1.6., can you talk about sort of the time line of that rollout and kind of what you guys are seeing with that sort of transition?
Yes. I think you just hit it. It's become more compressed than we saw 100 to 400, 400 to 800 compressing. It's going to go faster. We've seen a lot of announcements of silicon for 1.6. I think that one thing that we have learned, we've gotten this question, by the way, I came into the business, we had really secured a substantial position in market share, 100 gig. And everyone said, what's going to happen at 400 gig? And then what's going to happen at 800 gig. And we've been able to layer on those technology transitions based on a consistent software architecture and methodology and development.
We'll always have to add new -- some new things and capability as the speed increases, but it's been pretty straightforward. And I think we've led that deployment. The critical time is from first silicon to thousands of GPU connections. A lot happens within that. So you see us tend to wait until we really have deployments to make announcements around the next generation.
Got it. And continuing with the technology road map a little. We're starting to see a lot more talk about co-packaged optics. But in the past, I think you've talked about how the failure rates of optics is a big bottleneck for CPO adoption and how replacing the DSP and retiming chips of linear drive pluggable optics actually captures a lot of that is a pretty effective substitute. Is that still true with the 1.6 cycle? Or what are you kind of like starting to see more evolution here?
Yes. I'd like to answer this question by kind of coming back to why co-packaged optics began and the concept. There's really 2 things that are intriguing about co-packaged optics that we're trying to solve. One is power consumption. So if I can shrink the distance, but also the number of chips between the switch chip and the wire, either cable or optics, I save power. So that's a good thing. The second problem was in each one of these speed transitions, the laws of physics decrease the distance that I can run on a printed circuit boards between the switch and the front end. So the ultimate shrink is really putting optics on the die.
So I think we would say there's some inevitability to the trend of shrinkage, but we've been able to defy that in a couple of ways. The first observation we had is the improvement in the switching chips DSP technology that was designed for co-packaged optics allows you to eliminate the DSP in the optics component itself and preserve the operating model that the hyperscalers use of pluggable optics from multi-vendors. If something breaks, I can replace it. So we were -- and get all the power -- most of the power consumption savings that you have with CPO. So we were able to push out that transition 1 -- and we believe 2 generations. But there will ultimately be a time where to get the laws of physics, bringing that optics closer to the switch chip is inevitable.
One thing I would add is the biggest kind of concern around co-packaged optics is optics fail most often, as you pointed out. And if the optics fails and the optic is actually on the switch or on the board itself, you not take the whole switch out of commission, right, which means every workload that's connected to that switch is now paused or shut down or has to restart, et cetera. So the reliability requirements of the switch have just gone up exponentially, right? The hardware engineering -- and again, complexity is our friend at Arista. We've got the best and sharpest engineers. So we feel really good about engineering for that co-packaged era. But I think what customers are telling us is kick that can down the road as much as possible to John's point.
Fans, power supplies and optics tend to be the things that people want to replace on the fly. So you make in a situation with co-package, maybe there'll be some improvements in the overall reliability of the lasers. Maybe networks will be designed to be redundant of some path failures, so you can delay the serviceability requirements of those switches, but there'll have to be some operational adaptations.
Got it. And I guess continuing with the theme of emerging technologies, sort of optical circuit switching is a technology which has actually been around for a while but remained fairly niche. But at least we're starting to hear more talk about it. And I think in particular, there's talk about scale adoption by one of the hyperscalers. Can you talk a little bit more about what you guys are seeing in the space and sort of how that would impact Arista's business?
Yes. I think you framed it well. I think there's been one customer in particular that's used optical switches and some large-scale deployments. And you can think about them having massive scale. It's not equivalent to switching or routing. It's not a per packet-based decision on which way the packets go. It's more of a construct that interconnect some ways thinking about replacing patch panels, being able to allocate and move different elements of your compute or GPU environment at a more granular level. And as some of these deployments and other customers get larger, they can have the benefits of that kind of technology. So I think there is some elements of TAM growth because more people will be able to use those technologies, but it's still kind of a different aspect than traditional switching and routing. And if you want to...
Yes. I mean I think to Mark's point, this fits in that experimentation bucket, right? Like is there some pound of power savings? Is there some pound of performance improvement I can get. But even at this customer that has been using optical circuit switching for a while, once they get beyond a certain layer in the network, it is all Ethernet, right? Because the flexibility that Ethernet gives you is just tremendous. The variability in the supply chain, the diversity of suppliers, all of that, I think, brings its own advantages. So I don't think we view those as necessarily competing. I think the TAM for optical circuit switching is significantly smaller than Ethernet switching. So...
Got it. And we've kind of been talking about a few technologies that sort of are real, but maybe less disruptive than some investors might hear. Are there any technologies that sort of are on your radar that you think kind of are being underappreciated by Wall Street?
I'd say we touched on this earlier. The scale across opportunity, I think, for us is very, very exciting, right? I mean to kind of repeat a little bit of what we said earlier, like it takes a unique set of technologies. It requires these deeper buffers. It requires the virtual output queuing. It requires encryption. And that's something that I think probably the biggest misconception I've heard out there is people assume that a switchboard is a switchboard is a switchboard, right? But to John's point from earlier, a low latency switchboard is much more different than a scale-across switchboard. And so that nuance, I think, sometimes gets missed.
Got it. And I guess if we zoom out and kind of like talk a little bit more about the platform, right? I think at the Analyst Day, I actually asked Jayshree, why is it that Arista was the only -- essentially the only networking company that sort of entered the market after the dot-com bubble and saw sustained success. She highlighted that data center switching has really been kind of the foundation of Arista's strength for a long time. That's a category which has been one of the fastest-growing and most important components in the data center and probably all the more so now. So can you talk about how sort of you're leveraging that strength in switching to building a platform that supports other products and services?
Yes. Maybe just to amplify Jayshree's answer. In 2010, '11, it's hard to imagine how small these hyperscalers were. So it was a classic case of an underserved market. And a new competitor coming in with hyper focus, not trying to take enterprise networks or service provider networks and serving the emerging hyperscalers. Their problem was they had very smart people, sophisticated operators, but we're trying to connect together millions of compute nodes with a very small team. So how can I put my agent on your networking device like I do with my servers on a Linux operation and build a centralized management stack? How can I have resilience and scale and being able to scale out without bespoke different operating systems? So they were sort of the architectural premises that we developed at Arista. The hyperscalers had their own management stack, a centralized management stack.
They encouraged us to be able to stream data to that management stack. We took that concept and built something called CloudVision, which is a management stack that we use for people who don't have the wherewithal to build their own. So back to your sort of question on AI, this being able to scale and manage is happening as we speak into campus environments. If you think about a university, it's very easy to think about a new student coming in with 3 devices they roam with, right? Maybe a pad, laptop and perhaps a watch. And they're moving around campus. You imagine them all coming to see a sporting event that seats 20,000 people, all of a sudden, you're up to 60,000 Mac addresses in a very small place.
It starts to feel like connecting GPUs and CPUs. We've taken in our WiFi stack concepts that have been developed and standardized in the data center like EVPN and VXLAN, and with our VESPA architecture using Wi-Fi 7, being able to build these large Layer 2 roaming networks that fit into campus. It is a similar problem except these people move around. They're not standard like racks. The operating principles of a single management stack and a single operating system in your data center and campus are consistent with what we've done in the data center. So very much plays this whole consistency and scale piece that we've focused on.
Yes. One maybe thing that I'd add is our customers -- what customers really liked about us in the data center also was just the cost of ownership of an Arista network is fundamentally lower, right? Because it fails less often, it's easier to maintain, it's easier to operate the level of automation, et cetera. And so if you think about it, who has even less money to spend on networking, right? It's the enterprises because they might have one networking person. If you're a large bank, for instance, which many of you probably work at banks and you've got 5,000 ATMs, you don't want to be sending a tech to reboot a switch at every ATM every few weeks, right? I mean it's just not cost effective. So you want that reliability, you want that centralized management, you want that automation. And I think that's the advantage we've been able to bring from our cloud learnings, if you will, to the rest of the world, right? So we call it the modern operating model, and it's been very, very effective for customers.
It's hard to imagine in networking, customers were very scared to upgrade because they can run into regressions, something that used to work, I've upgraded it, now I broke it. And with kind of the concerns around security and security alerts, being able to move quickly is really important. It was really critical in the data center, but it applies to the entire network.
Got it. And now that we're talking sort of a little bit more about enterprise, where are we seeing sort of enterprise AI adoption inflect the most? And how do those use cases differ from sort of what we've seen kind of with the cloud titans?
Yes. Maybe I'll start and you add in here. I think definitely, we see different verticals with a different approach. I think the consistency is an enterprise may have certain amounts of data that they want to monetize or take advantage of and build out their own AI pieces. It could be in the financial vertical, maybe around security and credit card and credit card handling and fraud. In health care, it could be detection of anomalies around your health or radiology. So we see these vertical applications emerging in AI, specifically where a company may have a lot of data that they want to take advantage of.
Yes. I mean I think the health care example is a great one, right? Like we have customers that will have conversations with us about, look, we want to take advantage of this AI wave, but we're concerned about -- our patient privacy, right? So like how can we ensure data is segmented correctly and there's encryption on the wire, and we've got threat detection on the wire, et cetera. So we've got a whole slew of services now that -- and software capabilities that we've built within the switches that can provide that, right? I'd say the biggest trend we're seeing maybe with customers is fewer of them are trying to build their own training clusters because I think they recognize that the amount of CapEx investment that it takes for that is incredibly high, right?
But what they also realize, and this touches on something John said earlier, is inferencing is very much a latency-driven game, right? If you're going to ask a question, and it's going to take 2 hours to come back with a response, you might as well not have it, right? So how do you optimize that? Well, you can try and bring AI to the edge, if you will. So you're already starting to see questions about, okay, is there going to be an accelerator on each of these devices you have running in front of you? Can we bring the inference compute as close to the edge, right, whether it's putting it in a data center that doesn't belong to you, but closer to you or putting it in your own data center. So those are some of the trends we're seeing.
But I mean, we talked about over 100 800-gig customers that we have now and just from about a year of the product being out there, right? Obviously, there's not 100 hyperscalers. So there's a small number of hyperscalers in there. There's some of these new clouds and specialty clouds, but a fair amount of enterprises in there in the verticals that John mentioned, right, insurance, financial services, health care, the educational sector is up there, manufacturing, some of those folks are trying to think about the whole AI factory concept.
Got it. And we spent a lot of time on AI, and we kind of have touched on this already, but campus networking has obviously been a huge area of focus for Arista. Can you talk a little bit more about sort of value proposition and kind of the go-to-market in scaling that business?
So yes, I think it's important to think from an Arista perspective, campus is part of our enterprise go-to-market. So we have a very intimate engineer-to-engineer relationships with the large cloud providers. But we've had from the beginning of the company, starting with the financial vertical an enterprise go-to-market. The only thing they could sell was low latency switches when we started. Then we added more broad data center products, and we've been continually to add to that. We don't necessarily go to a customer or target a customer because they're a campus player. They buy a lot of networking equipment. Networks is important to them. And then our sales team will look for whatever opportunity exists within that account.
Maybe their WiFi is coming up first or maybe it's a data center opportunity, but they have more arrows in the quiver, if you will, to go build out an enterprise network. So that's how we go about it. We were pushed from our data center customers. Why aren't you going into campus because they want the same benefits of a single operating system, the same operating model into the campus pieces. So we took that to heart. When we were ready, we built our campus LAN switches organically. We did add a Wi-Fi component that I would say we've [ Aristafied ] into the architecture and going about it that way.
Yes. I mean I think it's important to keep in mind that the campus dynamics are also slightly different. I mean the refresh cycles can be 7 to 10 years. Data center, typically, even 3 to 5 years, you see a refresh cycle. So that's kind of one thing. It's also very rare that someone says, okay, you know what, come in and replace my entire campus my switching, my WiFi, my SD-WAN, right? It's much more piecemeal, right? Like where they'll say, okay, you know what, you won this business, but we're going to start with you in one building and then maybe a few months later, you get the second building. So it's a much more slower grind in that sense, right?
With that said, I think we're very happy with our growth, right? I mean we told the Street that we were targeting $800 million exiting the year. It was $750 million, and then we acquired VeloCloud, which John can talk in more detail about since he's heavily involved there. So we bumped that up to $800 million. We were able to meet that target. And now for this year, we said $1.25 billion, right, which we actually got this question earlier. I mean that's pretty aggressive growth in a market that isn't growing as fast, right?
And the reason we can do that is we're only about 3% market share in that campus market. So it's much easier to grow at a faster clip when you're a share taker, right? And it's -- I think we feel very confident about being able to become, frankly, one of the larger players in the campus in the next year or so. Again, there's one big player in the room and the name talks to the C, ends with an O. And then there's HPE Juniper, which obviously with -- especially with the merger now, they're in the probably in the teens percentage-wise market share.
But beyond that, it's been quite fragmented, and we feel like we've got a pretty good opportunity to kind of grow that business. So it's an exciting opportunity. It's a different sales motion. It's a different pace than the data center. But in many ways, I think customers care about the same things, right? They want a network that just works, right? You're not having to reboot stuff. You're not having to throw people at it over the weekends, things of that nature.
I wonder if I could just follow up on -- you mentioned HPE Juniper, obviously, a big merger there. Has that created an opportunity for Arista? Or what's the -- how is Arista benefiting? Or is there any risks from this acquisition that you see?
It's a discontinuity in the market. So that always presents an opportunity. There's been customers who used Juniper and HP as alternate sources. So now they don't have an alternate source, particularly around the Wi-Fi piece. There seems to be 2 things moving forward. So customers think about that. So it's an opportunity to create a conversation or have a conversation. But it hasn't fundamentally shifted our strategy. We're not sort of reacting to that event. We're still focused on the bulk of the market share and what we're bringing to market as opposed to changing our direction.
And do you see the combined scale and breadth that the new HPE has in networking as a potential threat to Arista potentially them coming in, gaining a bit more share in your areas or...
No, no. I mean what we've seen, it leaves us really as the largest pure-play networking company that can focus on every need in an enterprise. And that's a pretty big TAM for us. And as we said, particularly in the enterprise on the campus side, very low market share, so we can be a disruptor in that space. While on the other side, there's some rationalization and there's other pieces with storage and compute that require some focus for networking. So I think overall, we view as an opportunity.
Yes. I mean I think, again, this market, even if you go back to the data center market, size is not always an advantage, right? And frankly, it's one of things like Jayshree always keep us honest, right? Even though...
We disadvantage it.
Yes. Even though we've grown, we've got to keep that nimbleness and that start-up kind of mentality, which is why we tend to operate very efficiently and have stayed focused on pure-play networking, right? Because when your attentions are divided across storage and across compute and things like that, it's very easy to kind of move resources to whatever is the flavor of the day. And customers don't have patience for that, right? So I think in some sense, it helps create opportunity. It hasn't -- to John's point, it hasn't fundamentally changed the dynamic. And the largest player by far is still Cisco, right? So I think the opportunity is still there for, frankly, them and us to take share.
Great. So I had a follow-up question on memory, a bit of a hot topic these days.
We waited 30 minutes to get there.
Well, we have to ask about networking, too. So your CEO, Jayshree, talked about memory being the new gold and pricing environment being horrendous and lots of talk about exponentially higher pricing. My question really is how is Arista positioned versus other OEMs here? Are you able to secure enough memory? Or are you memory constrained right now?
We're not memory constrained. But as she mentioned, pricing has gone up, and we've made some targeted changes on our pricing to address that and also changed our internal price structure to make sure we have continuity of supply.
Yes. I mean it's -- if you noticed our purchase commitments have been going up. So it is -- and this is not specific to memory. I mean memory is a relatively small part of the switching BOM, right? We're not a server manufacturer where switching -- I'm sorry, memory is a bigger part of the BOM. So impact-wise, it's less of an impact. And also, I think one nuance that sometimes maybe the Street doesn't entirely appreciate, the more complex the switch the more memory. So for instance, the chassis switches, there's more memory in those. But as a percentage of the BOM, it's actually a lower number, right, because there's a lot more into that switch than just memory.
So what -- my point being is we are not maybe as impacted as a server maker. With that said, it's clearly an industry-wide constraint. I think our customers get it. So to John's point, where we need to, we have the ability to do these targeted price increases on these more memory-intensive SKUs and the customers get it. It's always a negotiation. I mean this is not a -- we'll say and they just do it kind of thing. But at the same time, I think because we've got that free cash flow, because we've got a lot of cash on the books, it's allowed us to make these investments to get in line? Because right now, I think the challenge is how do you get in line for that supply. But we don't believe -- pricing aside, we don't believe we are supply constrained in terms of being able to meet the demand we anticipate and our guidance is still valid.
Do you have a rough guidance on what portion of the bill of materials is memory?
We haven't -- we haven't disclosed that, and it varies.
We never disclose that.
Servers is going from 10% up to like 30% now.
Just because of the price. Just because you have the price.
PC is also from 10% to 30% roughly.
Yes.
So I mean, you're definitely in the single digits, I think.
We haven't disclosed that. But the percentages are going up just by the nature of the price increases. I would also just add in terms of being able to be in line, our relevance in the cloud market with top-tier customers helps some people understand where we fit in memory. They're also cognizant of the golden screw. If there's a lot of GPUs, but they can't connect them with switching, that wouldn't be great. So I think that suppliers are aware of that position. And obviously, we have a strong balance sheet that helps us make those multiyear kind of commitments where needed, right?
And your strategy is to pass on these price increases to customers and try to maintain your...
Well, some of it. I mean we've been able to absorb some of it. I think Jayshree said this or Chantelle said this on the call, right? Like Jayshree actually signaled the memory thing at our last earnings call, right? And I think everyone is a little bit surprised why she brought it up. But in many ways, I think it shows that she was almost questioned about where this is going. Now it has gotten actually worse since then. So we've been able to absorb for a while. But at some point, we can't, right? I mean the good news is our customers are some of the biggest buyers of memory, right?
Like if you talk about the hyperscalers, they need more memory than pretty much anyone else. So they get it. But no one likes a price increase, we don't like a price increase either. So it is always a tricky thing. But the question is really about our margin guidance. We feel very comfortable with that 62% to 64% gross margin guidance for the year that we can fit right within that using a variety of mitigations, right, whether it is absorbing some of it, obviously, purchase commitments and then some times price increases are needed.
Great. Thanks for that. Before I -- before we hand over to audience for questions, just one question I want to ask you, is there something -- what do you think that Wall Street is missing in your company? Is there something you'd like to highlight that you think Wall Street is not paying enough attention to?
When we have these conversations and even the discussion today, we think about from an investor point of view, TAM and opportunity, and we tend to segment things, right, front-end network, back-end network, campus. From an Arista perspective, it kind of -- especially the enterprise, loses track of our value proposition. Our value proposition, if we walk into an enterprise customer is, I can now deal with or execute any use case you have today, whether it's distributed enterprise wide area network connection, GPUs, connecting together your virtual hybrid networking environment. And I can do this all with a single operating system that is proven to be extraordinarily low in defects versus our competition and simplify your operating model.
So we go to market with that value proposition to an enterprise customer. They give us some thing about what's coming up in the next 18 months in terms of their changes, right, whether it's a management network in the data center or now with Velo, we're interconnecting a wide area network in a distributed fashion. So I just wanted to make that point and connect these different network use cases and area to really what our sellers are going to market with.
Yes. I mean maybe from my perspective, what I would add is I think networking is incredibly technical and complex. And maybe we need to do a better job of kind of simplifying that for the audience. But I think people sometimes assume like I was saying earlier, right, a port is a port is a port, like it's just a pipe, like how much complexity can be there. But there is a lot. And because of that, I think people assume sometimes that networking is also a zero-sum game, right? Like if -- like the question earlier about optical circuit switching, just because optical circuit switching is seeing some growth doesn't mean that Ethernet-based switching is declining because of that, right? It's not a zero-sum game. And I think especially in this AI era, like it is definitely a rising tide kind of setup. So you're going to see all kinds of companies, I think, do well because of that experimentation thing because of the pace of innovation, et cetera.
Great. Appreciate that. Any questions from the audience? I don't currently see any in the app, but feel free to stick up your hand, and we've got a microphone here and can come to you. Any questions? It's all super clear. We have one right here.
Question, things that are out of your control. What is the biggest thing on the medium-term horizon that is out of your control that will constrain growth? Is it power? Is it memory? What are you doing about this? How are you thinking about it? What mix can you put in place?
And power is definitely up there, right? Because I think customers want to build these as quickly as possible and power is probably becoming the biggest constraint. So to some extent, you're right, we don't control it. But what we do control is can we get more power efficient and power efficiency out of their clusters, right? Because the network is not a big consumer of power, but it is a consumer of power. And so some of the stuff that John talked about earlier in terms of reducing the power utilization by optics -- from optics by 50%, right, with our linear pluggable optics.
And again, we don't sell a ton of optics, by the way, which is I think another thing that the industry misses, but we are definitely thought leaders in innovating when it comes to optics. Andy Bechtolsheim is considered essentially one of the smartest minds when it comes to optics. And he's been pushing this idea of linear pluggable optics, eventually co-packaged optics, et cetera. So that's kind of one thing. But even if you look at the switches themselves, right, look, I love this comparison where even with the same Broadcom chip within our switch, right? So let's take a Tomahawk-based chip, put it in our switch, put it in another branded vendor switch. Our switches tend to be 15% to 30% more power efficient than the competitors. So that 15% to 30% that you can now save, you can apply to more GPUs.
Why is that? How can you save power?
Because we just -- it's kind of the stuff that John touched on earlier, like for instance, better signal integrity on the boxes, being able to design the hardware so that you're being as efficient as possible, getting rid of some power hogging components because you've got that better signal integrity. So it's just a variety of things.
You can lower the output power to the effect of the channel and minimize that, more direct control over the SDK on the software side to do some optimizations, thermal integration with how we do heat sinks and cooling to run the fans at a lower power. Lots of little things that add up to some pretty substantial changes. And sort of back to the memory, not 100% direct control, but definitely, we have an opportunity to influence that with some of the things we mentioned around our engagement with the large cloud customers and our momentum in the market is influential in helping us get some memory.
Thanks for that. Any other questions? We have one question over here.
They're making you walk the microphone today.
The other end.
So there was a large AMD meta deal announced yesterday. Is that additive to your TAM? I don't know if you can comment on that specifically. But then more broadly, in these -- once a large compute deal like that gets signed, let's say, is someone like a risk that consulted kind of as that discussion is happening? Do you come in later in the process? How does that sort of time line work of when the networking piece would come in?
Yes. I would say, look, I think we've been talking about the diversity of GPUs playing to Ethernet as the environment for running AI. We largely believed even when things were back in the InfiniBand days that, that would happen. AMD didn't even have a GPU in the market at that place, but we've just seen transitions like this that people want a diversity of endpoints and they want a consistent way to operate and connect those endpoints. So I think it's validation that there's going to be a multi-GPU environment. It's an external event. It's probably more long term in terms -- you see us making longer-term supply agreements. I think people are having to think through longer-term agreements in this environment to make sure that they have the capacity to grow. So I think it's all consistent with what we have baked into the model.
Yes. I mean I guess, in general, the biggest advantage, I think, the diversity of suppliers in any area gives -- it eliminates strategic locks that single vendor might have had prior, right, where they can influence buying decisions beyond just the GPU. So like someone saying like, hey, if you buy my GPUs, the network comes for "free" or you get the GPU sooner because you bought the network. So I think that -- it opens up the market, right? I mean the good news is all of these third-party, whether it's the branded accelerators or the homegrown kind of ASICs that are getting built by some of the larger players, they're all Ethernet-based, right? So that is a market that we can compete with.
We feel very good about winning in a best-of-breed kind of pipe. And it eliminates some of these maybe more go-to-market type impediments that we would have run into otherwise. So I think it's a good thing. It's directionally something that we've always planned for because I think customers always tell us that, look, we don't want to be locked into one vendor for anything. You guys included, right? Like even with us, right from the early days of the cloud, we've known we've had to coexist with other networking vendors. And it's not at all surprising that these customers would not want a single source something like compute either.
All right. Any other final questions from the audience? We're almost out of time. Maybe have time for one more if there is any other question. I don't see any hands, last chance. Daniel, do you have any other question on your side?
Yes. I mean I think sort of -- I think kind of we kind of just go back to sort of that high-level sort of like AI discussion, right? Jayshree has really talked about sort of addressing a $100 billion TAM. And as part of that, Arista has guided to AI networking revenue doubling from $1.5 billion in 2025 to -- I think the number is $3.25 billion in 2026. And I just want to get a sense of like how much of that expansion is coming from hyperscalers spending more versus Arista being able to capture kind of a bigger share of that opportunity compared to competitors than you might have anticipated before?
It's hard to parse it. It's a combination of both. Definitely hyperscale growth and our architecture growing within that is a key component. But I think we've also been effective at picking up some of the new companies and people that are starting to emerge in AI. I don't know if you have anything.
Yes. I mean we've talked about potentially even 1 or 2 more 10% customers, right? So I think we are definitely seeing a diversity of customers coming to the table. But also like we're very happy like Meta was referenced earlier, right? Like we're very happy with our partnership with our existing 10% customers. We don't name them anymore. They're customer A, customer B, but we still love them, just to say, right? And so yes, it's -- I think business is good on all fronts and not forget the enterprise, right? I know this was more AI focused, but even within the enterprise, we've got customers, like we said earlier, that are starting to be relatively significant, not as large as the hyperscalers, but the significant amount of dollars associated with AI coming out of the enterprise in the nontraditional places that you might imagine.
Great. Well, we're right out of time. Thanks, everyone, for joining us, and thanks very much for joining us on the stage today.
Absolutely. Thanks, Mark.
Thanks, Mark.
Thanks, Daniel. Take care.
Thank you.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Bernstein Insights: What's next in tech? - 4th Annual Tech
Arista Networks, Inc. — Bernstein Insights: What's next in tech? - 4th Annual Tech
📌 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Arista positioniert sich als bevorzugter Lieferant für hochkomplexe AI‑Netzwerke: Fokus auf "scale‑out" und "scale‑across" (Verknüpfung mehrerer Rechenzentren) sowie Übertragung der Cloud‑Betriebsprinzipien in Enterprise‑Campus‑Netze. Management sieht großes TAM durch Multi‑GPU‑Deployments und steigende Netzwerkkomplexität.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Produkt‑Fokus: Plattformen mit tiefen Puffern und Virtual Output Queuing für lange Distanzen; modular‑chassis spielen Aristas Stärke aus.
- Technologie‑Roadmap: 800G breit eingeführt, 1.6T rollt schneller; Co‑packaged optics (CPO) wird erwartet, aber Arista kann den Übergang technisch um 1–2 Generationszyklen verzögern.
- Go‑to‑Market: Ausbau Campusgeschäft (Cloud‑Betriebsmodell, CloudVision) und aktives Share‑Gaining gegen fragmentierte Wettbewerber; Ziel: deutliches Wachstum im Campussegment.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Zeithorizonte: Ethernet‑Scale‑up (Rack‑nah) frühestens 2027 relevant; 1.6T‑Einführung beschleunigt, CPO bleibt mittel‑fristig.
- Finanzielle Hinweise: Management bestätigt AI‑Netzwerkumsatzverdopplung (nannte $1.5bn → $3.25bn für 2025→2026 im Gespräch) und Gross‑Margin‑Ziel 62–64% trotz Memory‑Preisdruck.
- Supply: Kein akuter Memory‑Engpass bei Arista; gezielte Preis‑ und Beschaffungsmaßnahmen sollen Kontinuität sichern.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Power: Größte externe Beschränkung für AI‑Ausbau; Arista betont Energieeffizienz (15–30% vgl. Wettbewerber) und Komponenteninnovationen zur Minderung.
- Memory & Preise: Management sagt, sie können Teile der Mehrkosten absorbieren, teils weitergeben; Guidance bleibe gültig.
- Marktdynamik: Diskussion über HPE‑Juniper‑Konsolidierung und große Compute‑Deals (z.B. AMD/Meta): Arista sieht Chancen durch Multi‑vendor‑Trend, nicht signifikante Bedrohung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Gespräch bestätigt Aristas klare Positionierung im AI‑Networking und beschleunigte Technikzyklen. Wachstumspotenzial hoch, besonders bei "scale‑across" und im Campus; Hauptrisiken bleiben Power‑Limits und volatile Memory‑preise, die Management aber aktiv adressiert.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2025 Arista Networks Financial Results Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and will be available for replay from the Investor Relations section on the Arista website following this call.
Mr. Rudolph Araujo, Arista's VP of Investor Advocacy, you may begin.
Thank you, Regina. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on today's call are Jayshree Ullal, Arista Networks' Chairperson and Chief Executive Officer; and Chantelle Breithaupt, Arista's Chief Financial Officer. This afternoon, Arista Networks issued a press release announcing the results for its fiscal fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025. If you want a copy of the release, you can access it online on our website.
During the course of this conference call, Arista Networks management will make forward-looking statements, including those relating to our financial outlook for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, longer-term business model and financial outlooks for 2026 and beyond. Our total addressable market and strategy for addressing these market opportunities, including AI, customer demand trends, tariffs and trade restrictions, supply chain constraints, component costs, manufacturing output, inventory management and inflationary pressures on our business, lead times, product innovation, working capital optimization and the benefit of acquisitions, which are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K and which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements.
These forward-looking statements apply as of today, and you should not rely on them as representing our views in the future. We undertake no obligation to update these statements after this call.
This analysis of our Q4 results and our guidance for Q1 2026 is based on non-GAAP and excludes all noncash stock-based compensation impacts, certain acquisition required charges and other nonrecurring items. A full reconciliation of our selected GAAP to non-GAAP results is provided in our earnings release.
With that, I will turn the call over to Jayshree.
Thank you, Rudy, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this afternoon for our fourth quarter and full 2025 earnings call. Well, 2025 has been another defining year for Arista. With the momentum of generative AI and cloud and enterprise, we have achieved well beyond our goal at 28.6% growth, driving a record revenue of $9 billion coupled with non-GAAP gross margin of 64.6% for the year and a non-GAAP operating margin of 48.2%. The Arista 2.0 momentum is clear as we surpassed 150 million cumulative ports of shipments in Q4 '25.
International growth was a good milestone in both Asia and Europe growing north of 40% annually. As expected, we have exceeded our strategic goals of $800 million in campus and branch expansion as well as $1.5 billion in AI center networking.
Shifting to annual customer sector revenue for 2025, cloud and AI titans contributed significantly at 48%. Enterprise and financials recorded at 32% while AI and specialty providers, which now includes Apple, Oracle, and their initiatives as well as emerging neoclouds performed strongly at 20%. We had two greater than 10 customer concentration in 2025. Customer A and B drove 16% and 26% of our overall business.
We cherish our privileged partnerships that have spanned 10 to 15 years of collaborative engineering. With our ever-increasing AI momentum, we anticipate a diversified customer base in 2026, including one, maybe even two additional 10% customers.
In terms of annual 2025 product lines, our core cloud AI and data center products built upon a highly differentiated Arista EOS stack is successfully deployed across 10 gig to 800 gigabit Ethernet speeds with 1.6 terabit migration imminent. This includes our portfolio of Etherlink AI and our 7,000 series platforms for best-in-class performance power efficiency, high availability, automation, agility for both the front and back-end compute, storage and all of the interconnect zones. Of course, we interoperate with NVIDIA, the recognized worldwide market leader in GPUs but also realize our responsibility to broaden the OpenAI ecosystem, including leading companies such as AMD, Anthropic, Arm, Broadcom, OpenAI, Pure Storage and VAST data, to name a few, that create the modern AI stack of the 21st century. Arista is clearly emerging as the gold standard terabit network to run these intense training and inference models processing tokens at [ tariff locks ].
Arista's core sector revenue was driven at 65% of revenue. We are confident of our #1 position in market share in high-performance switching according to most major industry analysts. We launched our Blue Box initiative, offering enriched diagnostics of our hardware platforms dubbed NetDI, that can run across both our flagship EOS and our [ open NOS ] platforms. We saw an excellent uptick in 800-gig adoption in 2025, gaining greater than 100 customers cumulatively for our Etherlink products and we are core designing several AI rack systems with 1.60 switching emerging this year. With our increased visibility, we are now doubling from 2025 to 2026 to $3.25 billion in AI networking revenue.
Our network adjacencies market is comprised of routing replacing routers and our cognitive AI-driven AVA campus. Our investments in cognitive wired and wireless, zero-touch operations, network identity, scale and segmentation, get several accolades in the industry. Our open modern stacking with SWAG, switched aggregation group and our recent VESPA for Layer 2 and Layer 3 wired and wireless scale are compelling campus differentiators. Together with our recent VeloCloud acquisition in July 2025, we are driving that homogenous secure client to branch to campus solution with unified management domains. Looking ahead, we are committed to our aggressive goal of $1.25 billion for '26 for the cognitive campus and branch.
We have also successfully deployed in many routing edge, core spine and peering use cases. In Q4 2025, Arista launched our flagship 7800 R4 spine for many routing use cases, including DCI, AI, spines, with that massive 460 terabits of capacity to meet the demanding needs of multiservice routing, AI workloads and switching use cases. The combined campus and routing adjacencies together contribute approximately 18% of revenue.
Our third and final category is the network software and services based on subscription models such as a-care, CloudVision, Observability, Advanced Security and even some branch edge services. We added another 350 CloudVision customers a day, almost one new customer a day and deployed an aggregate of 3,000 customers with CloudVision over the past decade. Arista's subscription-based network services and software revenue contributed approximately 17%, and please note that it does not include perpetual software licenses that are otherwise included in core or adjacent markets.
Arista 2.0 momentum is clear. We find ourselves at the epicenter of mission-critical network transactions. We are becoming the preferred network innovator of choice for client to cloud and AI networking with a highly differentiated software stack and a uniform CloudVision software foundation. We are proud to power Warner Bros. distribution network streaming for 47 markets in 21 languages in the pan-European Winter Olympics that is happening as I speak. We are now north of 10,000 cumulative customers, and I'm particularly impressed with our traction in the $5 million to $10 million customer category as well as the 1 million customer category in 2025. Arista's 2.0 vision resonates with our customers who value us for leading that transformation from [ in Congo ] and silos to reliable centers of data. The data can reside as campus centers data centers, WAN centers or AI centers regardless of their location.
Networking for AI has achieved production scale with an all Ethernet-based Arista AI center. In 2025, we are a founding member of the Ethernet-based standards for both scale up with ESUN as well as completing the Ultra Ethernet Consortium 1.0 specification for scale-out AI networking. These AI centers seamlessly connect the back-end AI accelerators to the front end of compute storage, WAN and classic cloud networking.
Our AI accelerated networking portfolio consisting of three families of Etherlink spine-leaf Fabric are successfully deployed in scale out and scale across networks. Network architectures must handle both training and inference frontier models to mitigate congestion. For training, the key metric is obviously job completion time, the amount of time taken between admitting a job, training job to an AI accelerator cluster and the end of a training run. For inference, the key metric is slightly different. It's the time taken to a first token basically the amount of latency it takes for users submitting a query to receive their first response. Arista has clearly developed a full AI suite of features to uniquely handle the fidelity of AI and cloud workloads in terms of diversity, duration, size of traffic flow and all the patterns associated with it.
Our AI for networking strategy based on AVA, autonomous virtual assist curates the data for higher-level functions. Together with our published subscribed state Foundation in EOS, NetDL, or Network Data Lake, we instrument our customers' networks to deliver proactive, predictive and prescriptive features for enhanced security, observability and agentic AI operations. Coupled with the Arista validated designs for network simulation, digital twin and validation functionality, Arista platforms are perfectly optimized and suited for Network as a Service.
Our global relevance with customers and channels is increasing. In 2025 alone, we conducted three large customer events across three continents, Asia, Europe and United States and many other smaller ones, of course. We touched 4,000 to 5,000 strategic customers and partners in the enterprise. While many customers are struggling with their legacy incumbents, Arista is deeply appreciated for redefining the future of networking. Customers have long appreciated our network innovation and quality, demonstrated by our highest Net Promoter Score of 93% and lowest security vulnerabilities in the industry. We now see the pace of acceptance and adoption accelerating in the enterprise customer base.
Our leadership team, including our newly appointed co-Presidents Ken Duda and Todd Nightingale have driven strategic and cohesive execution. Tyson Lamoreaux, our newest Senior Vice President, who joined us with deep cloud operator experience has ignited our hyper growth across our AI and cloud titan customers. Exiting 2025, we are now at approximately 5,200 employees, which also includes the recent VeloCloud acquisition.
I am incredibly proud of the entire Arista A team and thank you, all employees for your dedication and hard work. Of course, our top-notch engineering and leadership team has always steadfastly prioritized our core Arista way principles, of innovation, culture and customer intimacy. Well, I think you would agree that 2025 has indeed been a memorable year and we expect 2026 to be a fantastic one as well. We are amid an unprecedented networking demand with massive and a growing TAM of $100-plus billion. And so despite all of the news on the mounting supply chain, allocation, rising cost of memory and silicon fabrication, we increased our 2026 guidance to 25% annual growth, accelerating now to $11.25 billion.
And with that, happy news, I turn it over to Chantelle, our CFO.
Thank you, Jayshree, and congratulations to you and our employees on a terrific 2025. As you outlined, this was an outstanding year for the company, and that strength is clearly reflected in our financial results. Let me walk through the details.
To start off, total revenues in Q4 were $2.49 billion, up 28.9% year-over-year and above the upper end of our guidance of $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion. It was great to see that all geographies achieved strong growth within the quarter. Services and subscription software contributed approximately 17.1% of revenue in the fourth quarter, down from 18.7% in Q3, which reflects the normalization following some nonrecurring VeloCloud service renewal in the prior quarter. International revenues for the quarter came in at $528.3 million or 21.2% of total revenue, up from 20.2% last quarter. This quarter-over-quarter increase was driven by a stronger contribution from our large global customers across our international markets. The overall gross margin in Q4 was 63.4%, slightly above the guidance of 62% to 63% and down from 64.2% in the prior year. This year-over-year decrease is due to the higher mix of sales to our cloud and AI titan customers in the quarter. Operating expenses for the quarter were $397.1 million or 16% of revenue, up from the last quarter at $383.3 million. R&D spending came in at $272.6 million or 11% of revenue, up from 10.9% last quarter. Arista continued to demonstrate its commitment and focus on networking innovation with a fiscal year '25 R&D spend at approximately 11% of revenue. Sales and marketing expense was $98.3 million or 4% of revenue, down from $109.5 million last quarter. FY '25 closed the year with sales and marketing at 4.5%, representative of the highly efficient Arista go-to-market model. Our G&A costs came in at $26.3 million or 1.1% of revenue up from $22.4 million last quarter, reflecting continued investment in systems and processes to scale Arista 2.0. For fiscal year '25, G&A expense held at 1% of revenue. Our operating income for the quarter was $1.2 billion or 47.5% of revenue. This strong Q4 finish contributed to an operating income result for fiscal year 2025 of $4.3 billion or 48.2% of revenue. Other income and expense for the quarter was a favorable $102 million, and our effective tax rate was 18.4%. This lower-than-normal quarterly tax rate reflected the release of tax reserves due to the expiration of the statute of limitations.
Overall, this resulted in net income for the quarter of $1.05 billion or 42% of revenue. It is exciting to see Arista delivering over $1 billion in net income for the first time. Congratulations to the Arista team on this impressive achievement.
Our diluted share number was 1.276 billion shares, resulting in a diluted earnings per share for the quarter of $0.82, up 24.2% from the prior year. For fiscal year '25, we are pleased to have delivered a diluted earnings per share of $2.98, a 28.4% increase year-over-year.
Now turning to the balance sheet. Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities ended the quarter at approximately $10.74 billion. In the quarter, we repurchased $620.1 million of our common stock at an average price of $127.84 per share. Within fiscal 2025, we repurchased $1.6 billion of our common stock at an average price of $100.63 per share. Of the $1.5 billion repurchase program approved in May 2025, $817.9 million remain available for repurchase in future quarters. The actual timing and amount of future repurchases will be dependent on market and business conditions, stock price and other factors.
Now turning to operating cash performance for the fourth quarter. We generated approximately $1.26 billion of cash from operations in the period. This result was an outcome of strong earnings performance with an increase in deferred revenue, offset by an increase in accounts receivable driven by higher shipments and end of quarter service renewals. DSOs came in at 70 days, up from 59 days in Q3 driven by renewals and the timing of shipments in the quarter. Inventory turns were 1.5x, up from 1.4x last quarter. Inventory increased marginally to $2.25 billion, reflecting diligent inventory management across raw and finished goods. Our purchase commitments at the end of the quarter were $6.8 billion, up from $4.8 billion at the end of Q3. As mentioned in prior quarters, this expected activity mostly represents purchases for chips related to new products and AI deployments. We will continue to have some variability in future quarters due to the combination of demand for our new products, component pricing, such as the supply constraint on DDR4 memory and the lead times from our key suppliers.
Our total deferred revenue balance was $5.4 billion, up from $4.7 billion in the prior quarter. In Q4, the majority of the deferred revenue balance is product-related. Our product deferred revenue increased approximately $469 million versus last quarter. We remain in a period of ramping our new products, winning new customers and expanding new use cases, including AI. These trends have resulted in increased customer-specific acceptance clauses and an increase in the volatility of our product deferred revenue balances. As mentioned in prior quarters, the deferred balance can move significantly on a quarterly basis, independent of underlying business drivers.
Accounts payable days were 66 days, up from 55 days in Q3, reflecting the timing of inventory receipts and payments. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $37 million. In October 2024, we began our initial construction work to build expanded facilities in Santa Clara and incurred approximately $100 million in CapEx during fiscal year 2025 for this project.
As we have moved through 2025, we have gained visibility and confidence for fiscal year 2026. As Jayshree mentioned, we are now pleased to raise our 2026 fiscal year outlook to 25% revenue growth, delivering approximately $11.25 billion. We maintain our 2026 campus revenue goal of $1.25 billion and raised our AI centers goal from $2.75 billion to $3.25 billion. For gross margin, we reiterate the range for the fiscal year of 62% to 64% inclusive of mix and anticipated supply chain cost increases for memory and silicon. In terms of spending, we expect to continue to invest in innovation, sales and scaling the business to ensure our status as a leading pure-play networking company. With our increased revenue guidance, we are now confident to raise the operating margin outlook to approximately 46% in 2026. On the cash front, we will continue to work to optimize our working capital investments with some expected variability in inventory due to the timing of component receipts on purchase commitments. Our structural tax rate is expected at 21.5% back to the usual historical rate, up from the seasonally lower rate of 18.4% experienced last quarter Q4 '25.
With all of this as a backdrop, our guidance for the first quarter is as follows: revenues of approximately $2.6 billion, gross margin between 62% and 63% and operating margin at approximately 46%. Our effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 21.5%, with approximately 1.275 billion diluted shares.
In closing, at our September Analyst Day, we had the theme of building momentum, and we are doing just that. In the campus WAN, data and AI centers, we are uniquely positioned to deliver what customers need. We will continue to deliver both our world-class customer experience and innovation. I am enthusiastic about our fiscal year ahead.
Now back to you, Rudy, for Q&A.
Thank you, Chantelle. We will now move to the Q&A portion of the Arista earnings call. [Operator Instructions] Regina, please take it away.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.
2. Question Answer
Great. And congratulations on the quarter. I guess in terms of kind of the commentary you had, Jayshree, on the one or two additional 10% customers. I guess just digging more into that, what are the puts and takes of -- is it bottlenecks in terms of their building? Is it -- like what would make or break kind of whether those become two new additional kind of 10% customers?
Thank you, Meta, for the good wishes. So obviously, if I didn't have confidence, I wouldn't dare to say that, would I? But there's always variables. Some of it may be sitting in deferred. So there's an acceptance criteria that we have to meet and there's also timing associated with meeting the acceptance criteria. Some of it is demand that is still underway. And in this age of all the supply chain allocation and inflation, we've got to be sure we can shift. So we don't know if it's exactly a 10% or high single digits or low double digits, but a lot of variables will decide that final number. But certainly, the demand is there.
Our next question will come from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.
Jayshree, congrats on the quarter and the outlook. I don't want to sort of say that the 25% growth is not impressive. But since you're doing 30% is what the guidance is for 1Q, maybe if I could understand what's maybe sort of leading to somewhat of a cautious in terms of visibility for the rest of the year? Is it the sort of one to two new customers and their ramps that you're sort of more cautious about? Or is it availability of supply [indiscernible] some of the components or memory that's sort of giving you maybe a bit more cautiousness about the visibility for the remainder of the year? If you can understand the drivers there.
Yes. Thank you, Samik. First, I don't think I'm being cautious. I think I went all out to give you a high dose of reality. But I understand your views on caution, given all the CapEx numbers you see from customers.
That's an important thing to understand that we don't track the CapEx. The first thing that happens in the CapEx is they got to build the data centers and get the power and get all of the GPUs and accelerators and the network comes and lags a little. So demand is going to be very good. But whether the shipments exactly fall into '26 or '27, to add, you can clarify when they really fall in, but there's a lot of variables there. That's one issue.
The second, as I said, is a large amount of these are new products, new use cases, highly tied to AI where customers are still in their first innings. So again, I'm giving you the greatest visibility I can fairly early in the year on the reality of what we can ship not what the demand might be. It might be a multiyear demand that ships over multiple years. So let's hope it continues. But of course, you must understand that we're also facing a lot of large numbers. So 25% on a base of now $9 billion when we started last year at $8.25 billion is a really, really early and good start.
Our next question will come from the line of David Vogt with UBS.
Maybe Chantelle and Jayshree, can you help quantify sort of both the revenue impact and potential kind of gross margin impact embedded in your guide from the memory dynamics and the constraints? I know last quarter, and you had mentioned in this quarter, obviously, the supply chain does have some constraints. When you think about -- I think, Jayshree, you said kind of the real outlook that you see, maybe you can help parameterize what you think could hold you back, if that's the way to phrase it? And just give us a sense for what upside could be in a perfect world effectively if you could share that?
I'm going to give some general commentary and Chantelle, if you don't mind adding to it. Our peers in the industry have been facing this probably longer than we have because I think the server industry probably saw it first because they're more memory-intensive. Add to that, that we're expecting increases from the silicon fabrication that all the chips are made, as you know, centrally with one company, Taiwan Semiconductor.
So Arista has taken a very thoughtful approach being aware of this since 2025 and frankly, absorbed a lot of the costs in 2025 that we were incurring. However, in 2026, the situation has worsened significantly. We're having to smile and take it just about at any price we can get and the prices are horrendous. They're an order of magnitude, exponentially higher. So clearly, with the situation worsening and also expected to last multiple years, we are experiencing shortages in memory.
Thankfully, as you can see, reflected in our purchase commitments, we are planning for this. And I know that memory is now the new gold for the AI and automotive sector, but clearly, it's not going to be easy, but it's going to favor those who plan and those who can spend the money for it.
I think the only thing I'd add to your question, David, and thank you for that, is that -- so we're comfortable in the guide, and that's why we have the guide and why we raised the numbers that we did. So we're comfortable we have a path to there within the numbers we've provided. The range of 62% to 64%. I think we are pleased to hold despite this kind of pressure coming into it. This has been our guide since September at our Analyst Day. So we're pleased to hold that guide and find ways to mitigate this journey. Now whether it ends up being 62.5% versus 63.5% in the guide in that range, that's where we'll continue to update you, but the range we're comfortable with.
Our next question comes from the line of Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.
Congrats as well on the quarter and the guide. I guess when we think about the $3.25 billion guide for the AI contribution this year, I'm curious, Jayshree, how much you're factoring if any, from scale-up networking opportunity, how do you see -- is that more still the [ 27 ]? And also, can you unpack like ex the AI and ex the campus contribution, it appears that you're guiding still pretty muted low single-digit growth on non-AI, just curious how you see the non AI and non campus growth.
Okay. Yes. Well, rising tide rises all boats but some go higher and some go lower. But to answer your specific question, what was it around?
The scale up.
The scale up. We have consistently described that today's configurations are mostly a combination of scale out and scale up were largely based on 800-gig and smaller ratings. Now that the ESUN specification is well underway. And Ken Duda, you can -- I think the spec will be done in a year or this year, for sure. So Ken and Hugh Holbrook are actively enrolled in that. We need a good solid spec. Otherwise, we'll be shipping proprietary products like some people in the world do today. And so we will tie our scale-up commitments greatly to availability of new products and a new ESUN spec, which we expect the earliest to be Q4 this year. And therefore, majority of the -- we'll be in some trials where a lot of -- Andy Bechtolsheim and the team is working on a lot of active AI racks with scale-up in mind, but the real production level will be in 2027 primarily centered around not just 800-gig but 1.6T.
Our next question will come from the line of Amit Daryanani with Evercore ISI.
Congrats from my end as well for some really good numbers here. Jayshree, if I think some of these model builders like Anthropic that I think you folks have talked about, they're starting to build these multibillion-dollar clusters on their own now. Can you just talk about your ability to participate in some of these build-outs as they happen, be that on the DCI side or maybe even beyond that? And by extension, does this give you an opportunity to ramp up with some of the larger cloud companies that these model builders are partnering with over time as well as you build out [ TP ] or premium clusters. I'd love to just understand how that kind of business scales up for you folks.
Yes. No. Amit, that's a very thoughtful question. And I think you're absolutely right. The network infrastructure is playing a critical role with these model builders in a number of ways. If you look at us initially, we were largely working with one or two models in there and one or two accelerators, NVIDIA and AMD and OpenAI was primarily dominant one. But today, we see that there's really multiple layers in a cake where you've got the GPU accelerators, of course, you've got power as the most difficult thing to get. But Arista needs to deal with multiple domains and model builders and appropriately, whether it is Gemini or xAI or Anthropic, Claude or OpenAI and many more coming. These models and the multiprotocol algorithm or nature of these models is something we have to make sure we build the network correctly for. So that's one.
And then to your second point, you're absolutely right. I think the biggest issue is not only the model builders but there are no more [ in silos ] in one data center, and you're going to see them across multiple colos and multiple locations and multiple partnerships with our cloud titan customers that we've historically not worked with this. So I think you'll see more Copilot versions of it, if you will, with a number of our cloud titans. So we expect to work with them as AI specialty providers, but we also expect to work with our cloud titans and bringing the cloud and AI together.
Our next question comes from the line of George Notter with Wolfe Research.
I was just curious about the product deferred revenue and how you see that coming off the balance sheet ultimately. Obviously, it's just been stacking up here quarter after quarter. So a few questions here. Does that come off in big chunks that we'll see different quarters in the future? Does it come off more gradually? Does it continue to build? Like what does the profile look like for that product deferred coming off the balance sheet and [ flowing ] through the P&L? And then also I'm curious about how much product deferred do you have in the full year revenue guidance to 25%.
Thanks, George. Thanks for the questions. Not much has changed in the sense of how we have this conversation. What goes into deferred is new product, new customers, new use cases, the great new use case is AI. The acceptance criteria for that, for the larger deployments is 12 to 18 months. Some can be as short as 6 months. So there's a wide variety that goes in. Deferred has balances coming in and out every quarter. We don't guide deferred and we don't say product specific. What I can tell you in your question is that there will be times where there are larger deployments, but will feel a little lumpier as we go through. But again, it's a net release of a balance. So it depends what comes in at that same quarter timing.
Got it. Okay. Any sense for what's in the full year guidance? I assume not much? Is that fair to say?
It's super hard, George. It's when the acceptance criteria happens. If it happens December [ 22 ], it's a different situation. If it all happens in Q2, Q3, Q4, that's a difference. So that's something we really have to work with the customer. So sorry that we're not able to be clairvoyant on that.
Our next question comes from the line of Ben Reitzes with Melius Research.
I guess my congrats to guys. This execution and guide is really something. So I wanted to ask about two things that I just was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about your neocloud momentum and what that is looking like in terms of materiality? And then also, if you don't mind touching on AMD with the launch, we're kind of hearing about you getting a lot of networking attached to the 450 type product or their new chips? Wondering if that is a catalyst or not as you go throughout the year?
Yes. So, Ben, as you can imagine, the specialty cloud providers have historically had a cacophony of many types of providers. We are definitely seeing AI as one of the clear -- in the past, it used to be content providers, Tier 2 cloud providers. But AI is clearly driving that section. And it's a suite of customers, some of who have real financial strength and are looking now to invest and increase and pivot to AI. So the rate at which they pivot in AI will greatly define how well we do that. And they're not yet titans, but they want to be or could be titans just the way to look at it. So -- and we're going to invest with them, and these are healthy customers. It's nothing like the dot-com era, we feel good about that.
There are a set of neoclouds that we watch more carefully because some of them are oil money converted into AI or crypto money converted into AI. And over there, we are going to be much more careful because some of those neoclouds are looking at Arista as the preferred partner, but we would also be looking at the health of the customer or they may just be a one kind. We don't know the exact nature of the business. And those will be smaller and they don't contribute in large dollars, but they are becoming increasingly plentiful in quantity, even if they're not yet in numbers.
So I think you're seeing this dichotomy of two types in that category or three types. The classic CDN and security specialty providers, Tier 2 cloud, the AI specialty are going to lean in and invest and then the neoclouds in different geographies.
AMD?
Yes, the AMD question. A year ago, I think I said this to you, but I'll repeat it. A year ago, it was pretty much 99% NVIDIA, right? Today, when we look at our deployments, we see about 20%, 20%, maybe a little more, 20% to 25%, where AMD is becoming the preferred accelerator of choice. And in those scenarios, Arista is clearly preferred because they're building best-of-breed building blocks for the [ NIC ] for the network, for the IO and they want open standards as opposed to a full on vertical step from one vendor. So you're right to point out that AMD and in particular, is a joy to work with [ Lisa and Forest ] and the whole team, and we do very well in that multi-vendor open considerations.
Our next question will come from the line of Tim Long with Barclays.
Yes, appreciate a little color. Jayshree, maybe we could touch a little bit on scale across. It's obviously gotten a lot of attention, particularly on the optics layer from some others in the industry. Obviously, you guys have been in DCI, which is kind of a similar type technology. But curious what you think as far as Arista's participation in more of these next-gen scale across networks? And is this something that would be good for like a blue box type of product? Or would that more be in the scale up? So if you could give a little color there, that would be great.
Right. Okay. So most of our participation today, we thought would be scale out. But what we are finding is due to the distributed nature of where and how they can get the power and the by-sectional bandwidth growth where essentially the throughput scale out or scale across is all about how much data you can move, right? As the workloads become more and more complex, you have to make them more and more distributed because you just can't fit them in one data center, both from a power bandwidth throughput capacity.
Also, these GPUs are trying to minimize the collective degradation. So as you scale up or out, the communication patterns become very, very much of a bottleneck. And one way to solve it is to extend this across data centers, both through fiber. And as you rightly pointed out, a very high injection bandwidth DCI routing.
And then there's a sustained real-world utilization you need across all of these. So for all these reasons, we are pleasantly surprised with the role of coherent long-haul optics, which we don't build but we have worked in the past very greatly with companies that do, and they're seeing the lift. And the 7800 Spine chassis as the flagship platform and preferred choice that has been designed by our engineering team now for several years for this robust configuration. So let's blue box there and much, much more of a full-on Arista flagship box with the U.S. and all of the virtual output queuing and buffering to interconnect regional data centers with extremely high levels of routing and high availability, too. So this really lends into everything Arista stands for coming all together in a universal AI spine.
Our next question will come from the line of Karl Ackerman with BNP Paribas.
Yes. Agentic AI should support an uptake in conventional server CPUs where you have -- where your switches have high share within data centers. And so given your upwardly revised outlook of 25% growth for this year, could you speak to the demand prospects you are seeing for front-end high-speed switching products that address agentic AI products?
Yes. Exactly, Karl. I think in the beginning -- well, let's just go back in time in history. It's not that long ago. Three years ago, we had no AI. We were staring at [indiscernible] being deployed everywhere in the back end. And we pretty much characterized our AI as only back end, just to be pure about it, right? Three years later, I'm actually telling you we might do north of $3 billion this year and growing, right? That number definitely includes the front end as it's tied to the back-end GPU clusters. And it's an all Ethernet, all AI system for agentic AI applications.
Now a lot of the agentic AI applications are mostly running with some of our largest cloud AI and specialty providers. But I don't rule out the possibility. You could see this in our numbers with loads of 8,800 gig customers that many of that is going to feed into the enterprise as well as agentic AI applications come for genomic sequencing, science, automation of software, I don't know -- I don't think can any of us believe that AI is eating software, but AI is definitely enabling better software, right? And we're certainly seeing that in [indiscernible] as well in our adoption of that. So the rise of agentic AI will only increase not just the GPU, but all gradations of XPU that can be used in the back end and [ funded ].
Our next question comes from the line of Simon Leopold with Raymond James.
I wanted to come back on the issue around sort of what's going on with the memory market. So two aspects to this is, one, I'm wondering how much of a tool has been price hikes, you raising your prices to customers or and/or whether or not within the substantial amount of purchase commitments you have, whether there's a significant aspect of memory in there. So you've prepurchased memory effectively at much lower prices in the spot market today.
Thank you. Okay. I wish I could tell you we did purchase all that memory that we needed. No, we didn't. But [indiscernible] in the industry have done multiple price hikes already, especially those in the server market or memory intensive switches, we have clearly been absorbing it and memory is in our purchase commitments. But -- so as everything else, the entire silicon portfolio is in our purchase commitments.
Due to some of the supply chain reactions, Todd and I have been reviewing this, and we do believe there will be a onetime increase on selected especially memory-intensive SKUs to deal with it, and we cannot absorb it if the prices keep going up the way they have in January and February. And I would tell you that all the purchase commitments I have in my current and Chantelle's current commitments are not enough. We need more memory.
Our next question will come from the line of James Fish with Piper Sandler.
Ladies, great quarter, great end to the year. Jayshree, are hyperscalers getting nervous now at all in ordering ahead? What's your sense of pull-in of demand potentially here, including for your own Blue Box initiative?
And Chantelle tell for you, just going back to George's question, are you -- I know it's difficult to answer, but are you anticipating that, that product deferred revenue is going to continue to grow through the year? Or just -- it's way too difficult to predict and you've got customers that could just say, "We accept, ship them all now." and so we end up with a big quarter, but product deferred down.
I'm going to let Chantelle answer the difficult questions [indiscernible] over again.
Happy. Thank you, James. I appreciate it. So I think for deferred, generally is -- so we don't guide deferred, but to try to give you more insight, there will be back to George's question, there will be certain deployments that get accepted and released but the part that's difficult is what comes into the balance, right, James. So I can't guide that would be a wild guess on what's going to go in, which is not prudent, I think, from my perspective. So we'll continue to mention what's in it. We'll continue to show you through the balances. We'll talk about it in the script in the sense of the movement. But that's probably as much as I can tell you with a responsible answer looking forward.
James, this is one of those times no matter how many times you ask this question in several different ways, the answer doesn't change.
I mean we're all -- [indiscernible] is doing the same thing over and over again.
Yes. So on the hyperscalers, I don't think they're getting nervous. You've seen what a strong business they had, how much cash they put out and how successful they are. But I just think they are working more closely with us. Typically, we had a 3- to 6-month visibility. We're getting [indiscernible].
Our next question will come from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America.
I almost had the same question to you what I asked you last quarter because you grew -- increased the guidance. Yes. No, it's -- I'll explain. You increased the guidance, but the entire increase in the guidance is basically the cloud. The -- and if I look at -- it's very simple to the [ sector ] numbers. If I remove campus and I remove cloud and you provide these two numbers for both '25 and '26, the rest of the business, which is 60% of the business, you guided to grow zero. And in previous years, it was -- I can make estimate, it was anywhere from 10% to 30% growth. So the question is, why are you guiding this way that 60% of the business is not going to grow. Is it because it's just conservatism?
Now, can I pause you there because I know you like to dissect our math several different ways and come up with conclusions. We're not guiding that our business is going to be flat or we're not going to grow here or grow there. But generally, when something is very fast paced and growing, then other things grow less. And exactly whether it would be flat or grow double digits or single digits [indiscernible] -- it's February. I don't know what the rest of the year will be, okay?
No. But that's the question. The question is, is there allocation here? Meaning if you -- let's say you have only set a number of memory slots, so you allocate it to cloud and then the rest of the business doesn't get it or is it just conservatism and lack of ability to [indiscernible] availability?
It's neither of the above. It's -- we don't allocate to our customers. It's first and first served. And in fact, the enterprise customers get a very high sense of priority as to our cloud. Customers come first. So -- but allocation of memory may allow us to be in a situation where the demand is greater than our ability to supply. We don't know. It's too early in the year. We're confident that we could guide 6 months after our Analyst Day to a higher number, but we don't know what the next 4 quarters will look like to the precision you're asking for.
Our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.
It's [ Adrian Colby ] for Atif. I was hoping to ask about for an update on Arista's four large AI customers. I know that, that fourth customer, you talked about was a bit slower to ramp to 100,000 GPUs. Just wondering if you can update us on their progress there. And perhaps what's next for the other few customers that have already crossed that threshold.
And lastly, is there any indication that, that fifth customer that ran into funding challenges might come back to you?
Okay. Adrian, I'll give you some update. I'm not sure I have precise updates, but we are in all 4 customers deploying AI with Ethernet. So that's the good news. Three of them have already deployed a cumulative 100,000 GPUs and are now growing from there. And clearly migrating now into beyond pilots and production to other centers, power being the biggest constraint.
Our fourth customer is migrating from InfiniBand so it's still below 100,000 GPUs at this time, but I fully expect them to get there this year, and then we shall see how they get beyond that.
Our next question will come from the line of Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs.
I just have one and one follow-up. First, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the new customer segmentations that you guys unveiled with cloud and AI and specialty. What's the philosophy around that? And does that kind of signal more opportunity in places like Oracle and the neoclouds?
And then second, with cloud and AI at 48% of revenue and AMD had a combined 36%, you have 12% left over. Is that a hyperscale customer, because it does kind of imply that you have a new hyperscaler that is approaching 10% because obviously, we thought that the next biggest one would have been Oracle, but that's moved out of cloud now. So any thoughts there would be great.
Yes. Sure, Michael. So -- Well, first of all, my math is 26% and 16%, so 42%, so I don't have 12% unless you had 58%. It's really only 6%.
So on the cloud and AI tightness, the way we classified that is a significantly large scale customers with greater than 1 million servers, greater than 100,000 GPUs, an R&D focus on models and sometimes even their own XPUs. And this can, of course, change. Some others may come into it. But it's a very select few set of customers, less than 5 or above 5, that's the way to think of it. right?
On the change on the specialty cloud, as I said, we're noticing that some customers are really, really focused solely on AI with some cloud as opposed to cloud with some AI. So when it's a $0.70 AI-centric especially with Oracle's AI [ Acceleron ] and multi-tenant partnerships that they've created, they have naturally got a dual personality some of which is OCI, the Oracle Cloud, but some of it is really AI -- fully AI based. So we -- the shift in their strategy made us shift the category and [indiscernible] to keep it too.
Our final question will come from the line of Ryan Koontz with Needham & Company.
Jayshree, in your prepared remarks, you talked about your telemetry capabilities. I wondered if you could expand on that and discuss where are you seeing that key differentiation? What sort of use cases you're able to really seize the upper hand competitively with your telemetry capabilities?
Yes. I'm going to say some, and I think Ken who's been designing this and working on it will save even more. Ken Duda, our President and CTO. So telemetry is at the heart of our -- both our EOS software stack as well as our CloudVision for enterprise customers. We have a real-time streaming telemetry that has been with us since the beginning of time, and it's constantly keeping track of all us, which is it isn't just a pretty management tool. And at the same time, our cloud customers and AI customers are seeking some of that visibility too. And so we have developed some deeper AI capabilities for telemetry as well.
Over to you, Ken, for some more detail.
Yes. No, thanks for that question. That's great. Look, the EOS architecture is based on stable orientation. This is the idea that we capture the state of the network and [indiscernible] out from the system database on the switches into whatever the television or whatever system we can then [ receive ] that, and we are extending that capability for AI with a combination of in-network data sources related to flow control, RDMA counters, buffering and congestion counters and also host level information, including what's going on in the RDMA stock on the host, what's going on with collectives, latencies, any full control problems or buffering problems in the host NIC and we pull those -- that information altogether in CloudVision and give the operator a unified view of what's happening in the network, and what's happening in the host. And this greatly aids our customers in building an overall working solution because the interactions between the network and the host can be complicated and difficult to debug when it's different systems collecting them.
Great job, Ken. I can't wait for that product.
Thank you.
This concludes Arista Networks Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. We have posted a presentation that provides additional information on our results, which you can access on the Investors section of our website. Thank you for joining us today and for your interest in Arista.
Thank you for joining. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Arista Networks, Inc. — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Arista Networks – Q4 2025 Earnings Call Zusammenfassung (ANET)
Nachfolgend eine kompakte Übersicht der wichtigsten Kennzahlen, strategischen Aussagen des Managements und des Ausblicks aus dem Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call von Arista Networks (ANET).
Wichtige Kennzahlen Q4 2025
- Umsatz: 2,49 Mrd. USD, YoY +28,9%
- Non-GAAP Bruttomarge: 63,4% (Guidance: 62–63%)
- Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 47,5%
- Nettoergebnis: 1,05 Mrd. USD; Diluted EPS: 0,82 USD (+24,2% YoY)
- Jahreszahlen FY 2025: Netto-EPS 2,98 USD (+28,4%)
- Cash & Investments: ca. 10,74 Mrd. USD
- Aktienrückkäufe: Q4 620,1 Mio. USD; FY25 1,6 Mrd. USD
- Operativer Cashflow Q4: ca. 1,26 Mrd. USD
- DSO: 70 Tage; Inventarumschlag 1,5x; Inventar ca. 2,25 Mrd. USD
- Deferred Revenue: 5,4 Mrd. USD (Anstieg; überwiegend produktbezogen)
Strategische Aussagen des Managements
- Distribuzione von Arista 2.0: über 10.000 kumulative Kunden; 150 Mio Ports im Q4 2025; Internationales Wachstum >40% YoY
- AI-/Cloud-Fokus: Cloud-/AI-Titanen dominieren Umsatzmix; Partnerschaften mit NVIDIA, AMD, OpenAI; Open-Ökosystem weiter ausgebaut
- Produktentwicklung: EOS-basierte Plattformen, Etherlink AI, 7.000er Serien; 7800 R4 Spine mit 460 Tbps Kapazität
- Blue Box NetDI und Open NOS; NetVision/CloudVision als zentrale Telemetrie-/Observability-Funktionen
- VeloCloud-Integration stärkt Campus-zu-Branch-Lösungen; ESUN-Standardentwicklung fortgeführt
Ausblick / Guidance 2026
- Umsatzziel 2026: ca. 11,25 Mrd. USD (+25%); Campus-Wachstum 1,25 Mrd. USD; AI-Center-Wachstum 3,25 Mrd. USD
- Bruttomarge 62–64%; Operating Margin ca. 46%
- Steuersatz ca. 21,5%; Dilute Shares ca. 1,275 Mrd.
- Q1 2026 Guidance: Umsatz ca. 2,6 Mrd. USD; Bruttomarge 62–63%; OPM ~46%
- Kapitalausgaben- und Working-Capital-Impuls; anhaltende Investitionen in Innovation und Skalierung
- Aufbau eines diversifizierteren Kundenportfolios und weiterer möglicher 10%-Kunden-Konzentrationen
Arista Networks, Inc. — Barclays 23rd Annual Global Technology Conference
1. Question Answer
Hello, everybody. Tim Long, Barclays IT hardware comm equipment analyst. Thank you so much for joining. Very happy to have Arista Networks. With us, we have Mark Foss, who's Operations and Marketing; and Hardev Singh, GM on the Cloud and AI products. So we're getting a few different pieces of the business, a few different perspectives here. Thank you so much, guys, for joining.
Thank you. Thanks for having us.
So let's -- yes, we're going to bounce around a little bit, but -- maybe if we start more, Hardev, probably for you on when we're looking at Cloud and AI networking, there's a lot of debates about competition. So we've always been talking about white box and it's always been there, but it's not going away as a discussion point. And obviously, over the last several years, given what NVIDIA has done with Mellanox, they've increased their presence a lot first with InfiniBand, now somewhat with Ethernet. So maybe if you can just kind of how you view competitive differentiation and dynamics and what is it that helps Arista win?
Sure. I mean, I'll start by saying that the AI momentum is strong, right? There's a lot of activity in this AI space, and we're very excited about it. I think our differentiation and our value hasn't changed from the past. We are -- with AI, you just have a different set of requirements. you have the scale up, let me frame the -- where we really play today, right? So if you're looking at scale up with NVIDIA, that's a closed system right now we don't play. So most of where we are playing now is the scale out which is the network to connect all these accelerators.
And now also, you hear about scale across, which is once these cluster sizes become really big, you need to connect them to each other. It's DCI in the traditional world, and that's another segment of that AI space where we play very, very strongly because that's routing, that's a chassis product for us. But what we're also excited about is the non-NVIDIA accelerator ecosystem picking up, right? So that opens up more opportunities for us for scale-out for sure as well as scale across, but also potentially in the future for scale up, right? So these non-NVIDIA accelerators you have the scale up, which is going to be Ethernet, whether it's ESUN or UALink the flavors of Ethernet, that opens up a new TAM for us. Obviously, I don't think it's material in '26, it's more of '27. '26 will be more trials, pilots, but that's another opportunity we're excited about.
And in terms of our differentiation, Arista is a software company, and it all starts with EOS, which is our software. And it's a really unique operating system. It all starts from the architecture, multi-process state sharing architecture very, very high quality. It's been deployed in some of the largest networks on earth, automation, visibility, single binary image, that's our main differentiation.
And then the hardware side, we use off-the-shelf chips, but the way we design our hardware is very efficient. So our power draw is generally about -- could be about 25% less than the equivalent products out there, which adds up when you're deploying a lot of products at scale and power being a big top of mind issue. It really helps to have a lower power draw switch.
Okay. you mentioned scale up and scale across. Maybe let's start with scale across. I was talking to you before, Ciena talking about like some more optical pluggable wins. How do you see Arista from a product standpoint playing? And maybe talk about whether it's latency, speed, distance, where is it where there's going to be a higher content of Arista in that scale across architecture?
So scale across is a new term, but traditionally, we call that DCI, which is data center interconnect. In an AI world, it is connecting a bunch of AI data centers that are physically in a metro region or across. So very excited about that opportunity. We play very strong there with our EOS feature set as well as our 7800 chassis platforms. You mentioned coherent technologies. So once the distance has become large, you need coherent optics like a ZR technology is what most customers use and are looking at today at 400 gig going to 800 gig.
Yes, if the distance becomes very large, then you have a latency impact, so that needs to be kind of architected well that your AI workloads are not going across these long links too much, but that can be solved from an architecture perspective. But yes, I think from a scale across, I think we are a very dominant player there.
Okay. Great. And then maybe the second topic is scale up, and we'll talk a little bit as blue box because I think that's part of the target audience for that technology. I know you guys have had this blue box type of deployments already. But maybe walk us through how those products are different from a full OS switch and how they're different from an EMS, ODM switch from like a Celestica or whatever. Talk to us about the software and hardware differentiation with both the higher-end switches and the lower-end switches?
I mean, I touched on the scale up slightly earlier in terms of the opportunity for us would be from the non-NVIDIA accelerators. In scale up, it's really -- the complexity would be in the hardware design because every accelerator has different technical characteristics, right, the link budget, the signal integrity, the HBMs that are connected to these accelerators. So it's really a custom switch. You can compare it to an Envy linked switch, right? It's like that's what that product looks like.
From a software feature set, you could say it's slightly light, but then the few features that you need reliability, congestion control, latency are super important. So slightly light in feature set, but those have to be very robust, those features and way more complex from a hardware design. So way we think about it, I think it plays into Arista's advantage because we are good at doing complex hardware designs.
The blue box today is mainly deployed in front-end networks at really a handful of players out there. And the real differentiation there is you have diagnostics, better signal integrity, better power draw. There's probably a few others I'm missing, but that's generally the consensus there then they can use a third-party operating system on top of that.
Okay. But I'm -- so I mean back to the scale up. So this is as far as guideposts when we see all this TPU growth or Trainium, that's going to most likely push -- that's going to be a big impetus to push scale up to Ethernet, and that opens up. Is that the right way to think about it?
So net positive there will be a pull-through effect for Ethernet vendors, yes.
Okay. Got a lot more in Cloud, but maybe we'll go over to campus for a little bit.
And I have that one campus question...
Here's your first. Let's see if we can do it. Really good guidance, 50% plus growth for next year. So kind of accelerating after a few good years, which is normally not what happens in the campus world. So maybe walk us through how that's happening. And still very low market share. So how much runway is ahead?
Yes. Sure. Arista started when we started shipping product in '08, we were focused on data center and large Cloud, largest networks on earth. And when we got to like 2018 time frame, many of our customers came to us and said, "Hey, we love the quality of your software, the automation is unprecedented. We love CloudVision. Do you have the visibility that we have in the network." Can you please develop some products for the campus to connect the users. So we listen to our customers. And in 2018, we started delivering POE switches. We acquired a company that did WiFi. And we slowly but surely, we've been shipping away at share and we're targeting kind of the high-end enterprise.
So if you look at the campus market, which is about $30 billion market, about half of that is kind of the large enterprise, which is kind of the Global 2000, if you will. So our product set is really focused on that area -- that segment of the market. And we slowly chipped away there. And we found that customers were really looking for a viable second vendor alternative. Generally, Cisco is the big player in the large enterprise, and they've got about 75% share there. And customers are really looking for a good viable opportunity -- a viable alternative there that had high-quality software and automation and visibility. So Arista, they kind of came to Arista with open arms.
And -- we've -- we're slowly gaining share. We're probably about -- of the overall campus market, we're probably like 2.5%. If you look at the large enterprise segment, we may be approaching 5%. If you look at our data center share, right now, we're about 3%. So could we eventually get there in campus? Anything's possible. It probably will take longer to gain that much share in campus just because in the data center market, there's -- if you win a couple of these big clouds, you can get 10% share pretty quickly, but there's no cloud titan in campus. So it's kind of -- you've got a nickel and dime your way up there. But right now, it's been high growth and primarily because of share gain is really what it's been.
Yes. And there was a new announcement this week, incorporating a little bit more AI? Talk about that a little bit?
Yes. No. Just it was a couple of things. It was more about increasing the domain for mobility. So I think we could support up to 500,000 endpoints. And then also we have this autonomous virtual assistant, which really came from -- we got that from our -- 1 of our security acquisitions, and we're applying that now to campus network. So -- it's been really good.
Okay. All right. Great. We touched on the $1.25 billion campus, maybe back to the AI and the $2.75 billion target, another one with really good growth. Maybe a little bit about -- obviously, you have 2 very large customers and 1/3 that's probably getting very large. You've discussed these 4 deployments, the scale deployment. So maybe give us an update there and how do you think about Arista's positioning as we go to more dense deployments and bigger GPU counts, does that advantage the EOS? Give even more advantages in those type of deployments?
Yes, I think the growth we're showing from this year's number on AI and then going to $2.75 billion is a very healthy increase. Yes, you have the large guys building these massive clusters, 100,000 plus. But I think there's also equally strong momentum on like the Neoclouds or the Tier 2 clouds, baby cloud, whatever you want to call them, as well as enterprise. I think some of the verticals like financials or automotive, research, they are seeing use cases for building AI clusters. Yes, they're going to be significantly smaller in size compared to the big guys, but they all add up.
I think Jayshree in the last earnings call mentioned we have 20 to 30 new customers in this second-tier AI customers. So strong engagement. With these guys, the value of EOS becomes even more important, right? They are going after the same AI use cases, whether they're providing AI as a service or they're doing their own AI workloads, the robustness of the network is key, and they want to pick the best-of-breed network. And they don't have probably an army of engineers like the hyperscalers do. So they depend on like, for example, Arista even more to kind of help them build that AI network at the quality they want to build in.
And for these large cloud networks, we've been working with these guys for like a decade or even more on building out large scalable clouds. And so we were really the logical choice to when they started investing in AI, then they needed an Ethernet portion of that for interconnect and their GPU. So they know us very well and they love our operating systems. So we were the logical to be selected for the Ethernet interconnect.
And just to add, the engagement model is also slightly different with the Tier 2 clouds or enterprise, they have a requirement, there's a time to market, all right, Arista or anybody else, do you have the network? Can we get this up and ready and get it going. The hyperscalers is very different. They're always at the cutting edge, bleeding -- trying to adopt bleeding-edge technology. So with them, it's close partnership. You work with them on these requirements. You kind of almost co-develop with them. then you kind of reach a stage of, okay, it's an RFP because they need to have dual vendor in whatever role there they want to go after, and then you can probably get a design win then you kind of codevelop the product with them and then you can ship, deploy and all of that.
So very different engagement model. And I think the partnership we've had with these hyperscalers is close trust goes a long way. This value, not just in the product when we talk about hardware and software, but there's a lot of value they see in the partnership and the history of sometimes maybe guiding them in the right direction of choosing technology or defining new products with them.
Okay. Great. Yes, I would love your perspective, one of the things that -- to the casual observer goes unnoticed is comparing revenues with other companies, and you guys obviously have a very large deferred product revenue balance. If you can talk a little bit -- I've covered this space for a long time have seen this stuff before with newer technologies. But can you kind of just level set with us what is causing that? What are the features or specifications that the customer is looking to see in the network before it could be recognized?
I think every customer is different, to be quite honest. And as we've been growing and we're deploying, I guess, larger projects. We're getting the acceptance terms can be a little bit longer sometimes like our acceptance terms can range anywhere from 30 days to 18 months. And the deferred balance is growing, but there's stuff that's going in and out every quarter. So it's like the same accounts that are in there are the same projects which are in there every quarter. Everything goes in and out. But I think it's a function of the growth, and it's a function of just larger, more complex projects what it is.
Okay. And then maybe sticking on the data center and AI, a little bit on the go-to-market. So -- could you touch on maybe like Neoclouds and sovereigns that are getting a lot more attention. Are those harder to get those at bets? How are you making sure that you're involved because some of the competitors there like a Cisco or an NVIDIA might have a country presence or whatever for a long time. So maybe walk us through that part for some of the newer customers that could be some decent scale?
Yes, you've got to keep your eye out for these because sometimes these could pop up quick. You've everyone heard of these guys. So -- but our -- we have some salespeople that are really savvy. They are constantly looking at the news, they're constantly doing research and figuring out where this spend is happening and where these Neoclouds could be popping up. So we do a pretty good job of jumping on these. But yes, these can come up pretty fast and they can -- but our model is really direct touch to these guys because these are oftentimes a very complex deployments. And -- but yes, we just -- you got to keep your eyes open because they come up fast.
And then how about the -- obviously, NVIDIA has the benefit of selling a full rack and particularly with probably less technical savvy customer bases. It's easy to just -- even if their networking is not as strong as yours to bundle it. How does that dynamic work? How do you fight that dynamic? I'm sure the more sophisticated ones are making independent decisions.
Yes. Yes. No, for sure. And it's been a very valid strategy of NVIDIA. I think generally, at the hyperscalers, they're generally -- it's more difficult to kind of deploy a bundling strategy with them. They're very savvy and they've got a lot of buying power, so they will generally go with what they want to. I think the smaller companies definitely are more prone to -- with the bundling strategy. But a lot of these Neoclouds and stuff, a lot of these engineers, they've been around the block. They've come from the hyperscale a lot of time and they move around.
So these guys know what they're doing. So oftentimes, they don't allow that. But it definitely -- the bundling strategy definitely can work. But generally, the more sophisticated and experienced the networking people are generally, they will generally choose to disaggregate the Ethernet.
And I think the trend of InfiniBand now really going down, Ethernet...
Yes, it's going to...
That I think helps Ethernet players, including us, and gives customers the smaller ones, even more confidence to adopt Ethernet.
Now is that fully because the consortium work together to match technical capabilities with InfiniBand and maybe customers don't want a proprietary type solution? And is it the sense that there still will be places where InfiniBand makes sense. But in general, it's going to be a down ward trend?
Combination, a bit of that, a bit of them seeing the big guys deploy it and scale and talk about it publicly. So it's a combination of a few things, that they feel very confident. And I think also NVIDIA, talking more and more of Ethernet spectrum. So there's a change in the tune there as well. So I think it's a combination of things, like Mark said, you guys are smart. They move around.
These guys like the dual source as well. So if you have a proprietary technology, you can't dual source it and they don't want to get locked in there. They want to have choice to be able to have leverage against their vendors and stuff like that.
Okay. Maybe, Hardev, talk to us a little bit about kind of speed migrations, 400 to 800, 800 to 1.6. How do you see -- where are we in that continuum now? I know some customers are going at different paces for sure, led by some of the very large hyperscalers. Sometimes it's led by hyperscales that you're not a major supplier to, so it might look different. But like how much do those transitions matter? And do you generally see those transitions as opportunities to take more share or get involved in more use cases. Maybe just walk us through the dynamic?
I'd start by saying 2025 is done now. 2026 is probably the year of heavy 800-gig deployment, right? AI, and I'm talking specifically AI. And -- but I think it's even more important with AI to adopt the next gen as fast as you can. So we, as a company, can be first from a time to market to get the next speed out that actually gives you an advantage, a head start because you will get into those qualifying cycles early, big or small or medium-sized customers and then we just grow from there.
So I think, yes, we are -- Andy talks about it. So we're heavily investing in our next-gen 1.60 based products. There are new technologies that come along with that. There's rack scale infrastructure, there's liquid cooling. There are technologies around how to bring the power down. So LPO at 1.60, we still feel confident we can have LPO to work, this co-package copper, the CPO, all valid technologies that are under evaluation. And then I think that's one way to show differentiation. So I'll sum by saying, yes, getting to the next speed first and fast is a differentiation.
And one thing I'd like to add is it's really good to be qualified at the lower end speed with your software already because most of the 90% of qualification is related to software. So if you're already qualified at say, 400 gig, when you move to 800 gig, that goes way fast, right? Like we saw -- as soon as the 800-gig products were available, we saw a really fast transition from people deploying 400-gig in AI to 800 gig, it almost happen over night for the new deployments as soon as it was there, people just moved over. But -- and that was because people had already qualified the software.
And we believe in shipping first and not announcing first. So that's been a consistent strategy.
Interesting angle to take. You did mention liquid cooling. I'm curious. I think I know I was at your Analyst Day, and I think there was a slide that showed like a liquid cool switch. It was probably up there. Briefly what's the timeline there? What's the savings? What's the power savings? What's the differentiation? And do you think that's going to become as big topic for switching as it has for, say, servers?
I think liquid cooling is going to ramp. It's going to ramp fast, but I think it's a function of the data center builds. So if I'm a customer, for example, who's planning to build these data centers, they can take time, right? Location, power, construction, all of that. And if I'm building my next gen data center that's going to go live in '27 or '28, I probably want to have it 100% liquid cooled because I can save all the ambient air con, all that effort and design in different. At that point, the network has to follow compute. The compute today is already their liquid cool, the NBL 72s or even the other accelerators.
So at that point, the network rack will also be -- there'll be 2 things. We'll go at a rack scale level. There's no more a switch. It's a rack of switches, fully liquid cooled and then they'll complement the compute, which is already there. So you'll have 1 liquid cool infrastructure in the data center and the network is there. So don't confuse by saying everything is going to be liquid cooled. I think there'll be a combination of air cooled and liquid cool because their data center investment is already there where air cooling is there. So it'll probably start off with air cool and liquid cool and then eventually liquid cooling takeoff.
Okay. You mentioned LPO and CPO. We get questions a lot about the impact of those technologies as well as OCS. If you could just talk about, one, the different interconnect and then, two, OCS, how you see that impacting the switching routing markets?
LPO, again, is probably thought leadership from Arista to the industry, right? Andy Bechtolsheim is the one who came up with this concept technology, got the industry to adopt it. And then now in 800 gig, it's in high-volume deployment, right? You're probably talking to the optic suppliers. And it has a big benefit to the customer from a CapEx cost, which is they're cheaper because there's no DSP, and OpEx cost because it's lower power, so I spend less money on power, which I could actually put more compute in, right? We are confident that even at 1.60, we can have -- we can get LPO to work. So we're working on that.
CPO is another promising technology. It's been there, this is probably second or third or fourth generation. It's again, addressing the same thing, which is how do I reduce my cost and power. There are a few things to solve around serviceability and stuff. And I think the industry will get there. So we are -- we will embrace when that maturity comes in. And there are other technologies too, co-package copper. CPO also has use case and scale up in the future, not just scale out, right? So promising technology.
You mentioned OCS. OCS is -- Google has done a great job at probably years of investments to get to the stage they are. How we see that adopted outside of Google to be seen. I would be a bit -- yes, I don't know how much time that would take because there's a heavy engineering lift from a software side to get the technology and more importantly, you need to have the scale to make that work, right?
Okay. Yes. Great. Maybe we'll probably have time for 1 more, Mark. for you with your operations hat on. Company was early on with purchase commitments. And I know, 5 years ago, some of us are saying, "Wow, what these numbers are massive. What are they doing? And they were needed and they're still needed." So maybe talk to us about where you are in capacity and component availability and what's the risk that there's some disruption in the next year or so because the demand is just so high.
Yes. Yes. We try to do our best to mitigate risks. I think one of the biggest purchase commitments we have right now is with the chips because the chips are like anywhere from 38 weeks or 52 weeks. So we're constantly having to order these preorder these. And I think one of the big challenges is bigger in the mix a year in advance. You got to figure out because all these different ship architectures got to figure out which is going to be the highest volume 1 a year from now and it's kind of an art more than a science.
Then the rest of the supply chain, there's -- compared to like when we saw the whole COVID situation where the demand went down and there was supply chain issues, now the demand is really high, so it's a little bit different. So there's -- there's constantly little challenges here and there in the industry. There'll be a shortage here shortage there, and we jump on those, and we'll buy from third-party brokers every now and then if we need to, and we just do our best. But yes, it is -- there is continuing to be a lot of demand out there, and we're just managing the best we can.
Okay. Great. Well, I think we're up against time. So thank you both so much for joining. Thank you, everybody.
Thank you, thank you.
Thank you.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Barclays 23rd Annual Global Technology Conference
Arista Networks, Inc. — Barclays 23rd Annual Global Technology Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Arista positioniert sich als Software‑getriebener Gewinner im AI‑Networking: Fokus auf Scale‑out (Verbindung von Beschleunigern) und Scale‑across (Data‑Center‑Interconnect). Management hebt EOS (Betriebssystem), Energieeffizienz und frühe Qualifikation für 800G/1.6T als Wettbewerbsvorteile hervor.
💡 Strategische Highlights
- AI‑Segment: Klare Trennung: nicht im geschlossenem Scale‑up‑Rack der NVIDIA‑Angebote, stark in Scale‑out und DCI; Chancen durch Nicht‑NVIDIA‑Beschleuniger ab 2027.
- Produktvorteil: EOS‑Centricer Ansatz plus effiziente Hardware; Management nennt ~25% geringeren Stromverbrauch gegenüber Äquivalenten.
- Markterweiterung: Campus‑Strategie für High‑End‑Enterprise (Support bis 500.000 Endpunkte); aktueller Gesamt‑Campusanteil ~2,5%, Large‑Enterprise ~5% — hohes Upside durch Share‑Gewinn.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Konkretes Timing: 2026 erwartet Management breite 800G‑Adoption in AI; Scale‑up‑Ethernet aus Nicht‑NVIDIA‑Ökosystemen sieht man eher in 2027 (Piloten 2026).
- Technologie‑Fokus: LPO (Low‑Power Optics) und CPO (Co‑Package Optics) werden aktiv verfolgt; Liquid‑cooling‑Adoption wird für Rechenzentren geplant, stärkere Verbreitung bei Neubauten 2027/28.
- Kundenpipeline: Erwähnung von 20–30 neuen Tier‑2‑AI‑Kunden und vier großen Scale‑Deployments; keine neue finanzielle Guidance angekündigt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Wettbewerb: Wie reagiert Arista auf NVIDIA/Mellanox‑Bundling? Antwort: bei erfahrenen Ingenieursteams gelingt Disaggregation; Bundling wirkt eher bei weniger erfahrenen Kunden.
- Technologiemigration: Tempo 400→800→1.6T und Vorteile: Management sieht 2026/2027 als Fenster für schnellen 800G‑Rollout; frühe Qualifikation der Software beschleunigt Wechsel.
- Betriebsrisiken: Deferred‑Revenue (Akzeptanzfenster 30 Tage–18 Monate) und Vorbestellungen für Chips (38–52 Wochen) bleiben eng; Management nennt Maßnahmen, bleibt aber ohne präzise Quantifizierung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Positives Technologie‑ und Marktbild: Arista nutzt Software‑Vorsprung (EOS) und Energieeffizienz, um in AI‑DCI und Campus zu wachsen. Relevante Risiken bleiben Kundenkonzentration, Supply‑Chain‑Timing und NVIDIA‑Bundling; Performance hängt von der Umsetzung großer Scale‑Deployments ab.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Raymond James TMT & Consumer Conference
1. Question Answer
Okay, folks, thank you very much for joining us. This is Simon Leopold, Raymond James, semiconductor and data infrastructure analyst. Day 2 of our TMT+C Conference here in New York. Very pleased to have the team from Arista Networks with us for a fireside.
We have with us Chantelle Breithaupt, SVP and CFO. We have Ashwin Kohli, who is the Chief Customer Officer and Rod Hall, who is supporting the IR team in comms. Is it the right way to...
And finance.
And finance, wearing many hats. But formerly sell-side analysts, so sympathetic member of the group up here.
Of the team.
So I do appreciate having IR people who have sat in our seat because they understand what we go through. Not that you don't, but it's a little bit different. So I'd like to maybe see if we can kick this off to help out investors who surprisingly might be new to Arista, but I want to see how you like to introduce the company to a potentially new investor.
Yes. So thank you. Hi, everyone, in the room and on the webcast. Thank you for that great question. So if people are not familiar with Arista, part of what we would identify as, welcome to a company who is the best-of-breed pure-play networking company.
We're 12 -- coming up 12 years past IPO. We'll be reaching $10 billion as we get into next year with our 20% growth estimate. Tremendous run in the sense of best-of-breed technology, working in the AI, data center, cloud, enterprise campus, many, many different aspects of the industry. And there's never been a time where there hasn't been more demand for networking to be as great as it can be. So we're very happy to play in that sector.
So I think one of the interesting aspects is that the company is becoming multidimensional, which is, I think, important. So how do you think about describing the multiyear opportunity in the dimensions that are all appropriate?
Yes. I think that so we had our Analyst Day back in September, and it was a great time to reintroduce reset because of this frothiness we're seeing overall in the networking industry. So we're looking at $105 billion TAM, and that's kind of the outlook. It was $70 billion the year before. So a great increase year-over-year from $70 million to $105 billion. And that encompasses many parts. It encompasses AI, data center, cloud, enterprise, campus, and I'm sure there's a few others observability, routing.
And so I think from those perspectives, a great opportunity across those. And over the next few years, we look to capitalize on that $105 billion. We did a great job against the incumbent competitor in the front end data center network, and now we're the leading share -- market share leader branded and unbranded when it comes to front-end networking. We're taking a -- we're the only vendor front and back end named vendor outside of China that has material in front and back-end AI networking. So I think there's many different ways you can position this. But I would start there, I think, Simon, and go from there.
So great. So I think one of the things that sort of characterize your business is the leading customers. And it's understandably a double-edged sword to have high concentration, but they have high concentration with companies that grow and spend a lot of money. How do we see the company's evolution changing that mix. So you've had as much as 40% of revenue from 2 customers in the past. How do we think about what the concentration and the customer mix might look like several years from now?
Yes. I think that we very, very much appreciated our 2 top 10% customers, and we're very happy to work with them. We've learned a lot. Our engineering teams have grown up with their engineering team. So we would never take that for granted and always have benefited from it. But as the company looks to grow, as we get to the $10 billion mark next year and looking out to your -- in the future as to your question, we are looking absolutely to diversify that revenue.
You've seen us in the enterprise, some great growth in enterprise. Campus, we have $800 million of target for revenue in 2025, going to $1.25 billion in 2026. And from there, steady state, that's only 5% market share. So we'll do the same thing we did data center, rinse and repeat on the campus side. So you can see diversification both by law of large numbers and by where we're playing in the field outside of those 2 customers you're referencing.
And maybe broadly, how do you see AI playing into the demand side? So currently, there's some more debates about kind of this idea, though, AI is a bubble versus no, it's not a bubble. It's this guy is winning, that guy is winning. What's your take as sort of an industry participant on the overall market and then sort of the supply and demand set up for you?
Yes, you guys absolutely participate in this conversation, too. So I'd like to look at external data, so it's not just what do we think. So if you look at -- I'd like to use the 650 Group, 650 Group's reporting in the sense of what this AI market is. We don't think it's a bubble. So just to answer that question definitively.
But if you look at, there's an estimated $2.3 trillion spend between 2022 and 2035. There's $300 billion on content, large language models. There's $1 trillion on Agentic AI and $1 trillion on autonomous and robotics. $2.3 trillion on spend. That absolutely gives us an opportunity to play and participate in that. So those are kind of the themes we see in the AI sector to your question, Simon. I think that we look forward to playing in both the front end and back end. We've said that for every back-end dollar, there's a $0.30 to $2 pull-through on the front end as the companies and enterprises lean towards Agentic AI. Anything you guys would like to add?
Yes. I mean I could add to that as well, Simon, right? So if you think about the business on specifically AI, the opportunity in the future is much larger than what we have right now. Most of the focus is around a certain set of cloud customers, which are building these LLM models.
I would say, in the next -- to your question in the next 5 to 10 years, you're going to have this, what I call a hybrid model, which is SLMs. SLMs are going to go to the edge, which is a campus place, which is where Arista is playing a footprint in as well. And so that demand for data from not only into the cloud, but also at the edge with the SLM models and actually marrying those 2 together is going to be a huge incentive, right.
Yes. And the industries we're seeing lean in, just to round out, specifically, the industries, we've seen educational -- phenomenal lean in by educational industry, financial industries, health care industry, sovereigns and Neoclouds, which are being our own providers and having to differentiate. One of the banks I had dinner with last week, they have 320 AI use cases that they're working on and looking at us as a value partner and how to make those use cases come to life. So just to be specific, it's not just headlines.
So I want to unpack maybe 2 aspects of this. One is sort of the nature of the customer. So, so much of the spending is done by these hyperscalers, but we hear about sovereigns. We hear about enterprise adoption, Neocloud. So if we think about the market or the business opportunities for Arista, how do you see that evolving? So sort of what's your -- what are your dependencies now? And how do you see that shifting over time towards sort of these more diversified customer bases?
So I'll take Neocloud and then maybe you can talk enterprise, Ashwin and Rod. So from a Neocloud perspective, it's an exciting market, Neocloud and sovereign, let's just call it Neocloud for sake of nomenclature. So for the Neocloud, what they really appreciate. So if the conversation that's open to best-of-breed and it's not a conversation we're not invited to because of investment from our competitors or commercial model, bringing things together in a way that we can't compete on.
So if it's open to best-of-breed conversations, what the Neoclouds and sovereigns really enjoy is our hyperscaler, our deep, deep hyperscaler experience, they're like how can we get that? And the reason they want that is because they need to differentiate their models to their customers. So how can we help them differentiate through our product portfolio, our hardware, our software EOS. So they come to us for our hyperscaler experience.
And we've had some really great designs. I think at the supercompute Core2 announced that they worked with ourselves, Broadcom and AMD on a really great architecture. So that's an example that's now public. We let our customers speak for themselves, who they're using. So very excited by the Neocloud opportunity.
Yes. Yes. I mean, I could probably give you examples, right, to complement the Neocloud story over here on the enterprise side, I was with the CIO of a large hospital just recently. And he was basically telling me that typically in the past, when you actually did an MRI on an X-ray to analyze that data, it would take you -- initially, it would take a cardiologist a few days, right, to go get the data in, analyze it, right, and then give it to the patient. Today, this one hospital is doing it in minutes, right?
And so what they're doing is it's taking the MRI scans, they uploading it. The AI LLM is basically looking at all the analysis and then giving the analyst -- the data back straight to the cardiologists within a few minutes. That is a massive change, right, especially -- and this is just a hospitality itself. You talk to a pharmaceutical, completely different industry. And over there, typically, you think about, hey, let's go do an AI inside the cloud. They're actually doing this on-premise. So they've actually bought GPUs, and I'm seeing a big trend on this on the enterprise side, where typically enterprises were thinking about AI last year, and they were trying it out inside the cloud.
Today, what they're trying to do now is say, okay, let me go try to go figure out. I'm going to buy between 2,000 to 4,000 GPUs, put it on-prem. Let me go try to go figure out the typical use cases, which is what this pharma was doing. right? And then they will actually train on-premise, which is a big change to what they were doing training inside the cloud, just to bring the cost and then actually turn things run faster and it was a lot cheaper for them. So there are many, many examples like that.
I want to follow that one up because...
Yes, yes. sure.
This is a topic that when we were picking up the coverage of the semis, we're debating internally as well. So I want this to be open and objective because I haven't made up my mind, so I don't want to give you the impression I've made up my mind because I haven't. There's sort of this ongoing debate about how AI evolves in enterprise and organizations, what they do themselves on-prem versus when will they hire and employ the cloud.
And I imagine, to a degree, you don't care because as long as it goes on an Arista box. But I have to imagine, you have an opinion, you've got some thoughts as to how this plays out. I'm curious your take on what happens on-prem or private cloud versus public cloud and AI adoption?
No, that's a great question, right? So what I see today, Simon, is very clearly, if an enterprise is trying to get their feet wet inside this AI space, they will do training inside the cloud, okay? And what they'll try to go figure out is, can they do for that specific use case, can they do the job training inside the cloud. So once they've done the training side of the cloud, then they'll bring the job back on-premise itself into what's called inference and they'll do it inside their private cloud itself.
So they'll run that on -- it goes from the back end to the front end. The front end is inside the data center. Then it really becomes, okay, it reaches out to the rest of the network itself. What's interesting is that will then go into not only a single data center, but it will go to a bunch of campus sites as well.
What will be interesting, and we don't know because I'm seeing this at the infancy right now. And when I've seen this, I think about car manufacturers, oh my God, retail, insurance, manufacturing, banking, right, each of these. I mean we've got hundreds and hundreds of customers looking at this space globally.
And what they're trying to figure out, okay, if we can do the training on-premise, can I do this quicker and faster or less expensive, I should do it in the cloud. I think it's a little bit too early to say where that's going to lie. You're going to probably take another 3 to 5 years before that actually definitely happens because there's a big cost on-premise to do this in the -- on the private cloud power, space, cooling, all these factors really come into play. So to be seen, but there is certainly interest in enterprise, right? I can see this right over the next few years.
Yes. And the only other decision tree I've seen in addition because we speak to many different customers at different venues is the other thing I found is a bit of a decision tree or catalyst is who's kind of owning AI in the enterprise. Sometimes it's the CIO and the proper networking team and sometimes it's a CTO or someone who's coming just for AI and they do it within a closed team. And so sometimes, Simon, it's who's owning it in the customer and how broad are they taking it? And I think that also where and when they do on-prem versus in the cloud.
Yes. I also want to explore a little bit about this question about the back end versus front end. So I think you've given us this broad range, right, 30% to 200%. And the way you've offered forecast is you just lump it all together. And I guess part of what I'd like to explore a little bit is when customers are making decisions, are the decisions on back end independent to front end because you've all been in the front end for a long time. It's sort of the back end that's new? Or is there some direct correlation? Why such a wide range? Why do we lump them together? How should we really think about the logic there? Because early on, we were all sort of focused on measuring just back end.
Yes. I'll take the front, back-end correlation, then maybe if you want to take the fungibility side of it. So the -- what we are finding is we were starting this journey 18, 24 months ago is that sometimes you'd have a clear example with the customer, this is for a back-end use case, and it was super clear. But what we found is that the pull-through, the $0.30 to $2 is really what's the -- at the edge that Ashwin has mentioned to, what's the kind of the -- at the employee usage demand that's increasing.
And so if you've recently upgraded your network in the company. That's where you might spend $0.30 to bring up the demand capacity that you need. If you're on a refresh cycle and you haven't refreshed your data center or spend in a while, that's where you might be at the $2 to make sure you're building in the capacity for the demand that's coming for all those use cases that we just mentioned. Now there is -- front and back end gets a little bit less clear sometimes, right?
Yes. And it's tough, Simon, right? So today, before we were very definitive about AI being built on the back end, and there was this clear distinction between back end and front end. It's not so clear today, right? So if a customer places a demand from us from the switches, and this is the beautiful thing about our technology, you can basically use it either in the back end or the front end. And like what Chantelle was saying, it's very fungible. We are proud of that because it's the same hardware. It's the same software and it's the same support.
And so we give customers a choice to go -- to do whatever they want. And so if their strategy changes in the business and say, "Hey, listen, I want to use this kind of application for the back end and maybe I want to use a different type of LLM or different type of SLM, they're able to deal with an Arista fabric specifically and Ethernet fabric, which is very open right? It doesn't lock them in. It's nonproprietary, it's scalable. It scales out, it scales across multiple data centers. That's what I'm really proud about what we offer customers. It gives them a choice, right? So this fine delineation between back and front end kind of like starts to blur over time.
And I'd also just add to that, there's a -- as you look at some of the new data coming out, some of the new studies, like there was a Nested Learning paper coming out of Google that suggests that you're going to start to train in the front end as you perform inference. So you have a blurring of the lines even of the training and inference functions in the front end, back end. So I think as you the next few years, you'll see those 2 things morphing together more and more. And that's why we start to talk about them as a sort of similar thing.
Yes. I could give you one piece of anecdotal evidence as well. I was with the CEO of a very large storage company, and he had no idea what a back end and the front end was, imagine that. We use it very often on the networking side. But for him, it's like, wait a second, a network is a network over here. I've got storage connecting over here, specifically for AI workloads. And so he goes, I want to make sure if I'm connecting my storage to a network, it always has to -- I mean I'm obviously promoting us over here, but he said, I always want to make sure it's Arista because you have the deep buffer choice, you make sure you don't drop a package on our packets on the storage side specifically. So for him, he had no idea what front end and back end was.
Interesting.
Interesting, right?
So we just call them AI centers now.
So I want to also talk a little bit about sort of the different decision processes and biases of the sort of market verticals, so hyperscale, sovereigns, Neos. So at least 2 dimensions I want to see if you can unpack -- it's a little bit of a long question in that we've heard the hyperscalers in this concept of blue box, help us understand what that means, the implications.
The one around sovereigns that I want to explore is recently, several compute suppliers, GPU platform supplier have talked about the sovereigns being much slower than others because they're governments, they're bureaucratic. Wondering if that's been your experience, if that affects networking in the same way it affects the compute side of the house. And then enterprises, the question is sort of along the line of where are they getting the money?
Yes. So do you guys want to take blue box and I'll take sovereign?
Yes, I can -- so the difference...
[indiscernible] 3 questions.
So I'll keep them on track.
So I'll try to make it as simple the difference between blue box and white box. I think that was your first question. My answer is broken down into 3 simple steps: Hardware, software and okay? On the white box side, if you think about it on the hardware side, it's an OEM white box manufacturer, right? Typically, those manufacturers don't -- they don't care about software. Their strategy is, I want to make the cheapest hardware and you can go slap on any software on top of that box.
That software, which is a second bucket that comes into play in the white box strategy is typically sonic, right? And so what a customer will do, a very large customer, they will basically take the software code. They'll customize it for their own use case, and they will buy the OEM manufacturer from the white box. They will customize it for their own use case. And then they have to then figure out the third step, which is, oh c***, how do I go support this, right?
And it's not only support for day 0, what I call day 0, then it's day 1, which is what happens next year and the year after because that hardware platform is going to have a generation gap. So today, they may have bought an 800-gig white box vendor. It's going to go to 1.6. It's going to go to 3.2 at some point in time. They have to figure out how that story evolves over there.
Now if you look at the Arista story, right, with the same 3 buckets, the hardware manufacturer, we've taking care of the white box, the OEM vendor. Arista is basically got hundreds and hundreds of hardware engineers in the labs, basically building the most beautiful box out there. Why is that very differentiated to any other white box vendor? We stress test the hell of those boxes. We do earthquake testing. We do fire testing.
We do -- I was talking to one of our testers -- and he basically said they're so maniacally focused on from the time that the switch arrives on the UPS truck to the time that actually the pallet drops on the floor, is there enough shock absorption on that. That doesn't happen on white bauxite, okay? So that's the story that happens on the beautiful architecture on the Arista hardware. Then you marry on the software side and we give customers a choice. This is what Jayshree alludes to, which is, what's the beautiful thing we do with our customers. You can put EOS or you can put FBOS or SONiC on there. We give customers a choice.
The last thing, which is the most key thing that what most customers want is support. Support only happens not only on where you pick up the phone, you call 1-800 Arista, hey, I've got a problem, go help me out. But it's on the engineering side as well where we sit down, our developers sit down with the customers and say, how do you go architect this together?
That is a hugely different value-add strategy and a scale story where we take all the headache away from our customers versus they have to go figure this side themselves. Most customers who try to do the white box strategy, you can probably count out noncloud, right? On the cloud side, a very, very handful of customers are doing this. So I'll give you a long but story, but I want to explain the differences between the 2 strategies. Sorry, Chantelle.
No, no apologies. It's an important message. And then on the sovereign side, what we found and very much enjoy working with these customers that are leaning into their AI strategy for their countries and their states, is that -- so a high intent on the sense of being successful, but it does take a little longer. And I think the inherent cycle time is longer because they need to bring together the right team and business model and operating model to make it happen where they haven't really done this before. If you take large hyperscalers, they do this every day all day long.
For some of the Neoclouds and sovereigns, they have to bring together the team. So they look to corporations and they look to the industry and they either bring them into the country or some of them globally. And so you have really smart thought leaders coming together for the first time working together, having to how they make this happen. That's just an org model that takes some time. Then they have to work through their decision-making process, working with vendors like ourselves.
And then the funding model, funding is usually there. There have been some instances where the funding gets a little bit lost in the shuffle. So we've seen some dropout that perhaps you know yourself. But generally, the funding is not the cycle time issue, it's more of the org model and team coming to other to make decisions that are very important for that sovereign state.
And how have you incorporated that into your guidance? So when you've given us the forecast for the year, did you initially account for sovereigns taking longer? Or is there any kind of delta or shift? Because the reason I'm asking that is it's relatively new to me being an outside observer, hearing this point, which is logical, but hearing this point compute folks.
Yes, we've definitely taken an assumption on them when we think they will happen versus perhaps the customer may think they're ready and usual Arista style, we're pragmatic about that timing.
Yes, it's always a bottoms-up approach, right? That's the way we look at things.
So I want to ask a little bit some technology-oriented questions. So one of the interesting opportunities that sounds like it's a couple of years out is moving the architectures and switching it to scale up. So, so much of it today, the focus is selling out rack to rack, rack to storage, but scale up looks like it hits new opportunities for companies like Arista. So maybe your thought on that opportunity, a time line of TAM. How should analysts think about that in their sort of multiyear time horizon?
Yes. So for us, I'll start with kind of maybe the bigger picture on this. So in the $105 billion TAM we announced in September, we do not have an assumption on the scale up. We're still looking at that as industry works with the ESUN consortium to move the opportunities to Ethernet. So as we size up the ESUN timing and the market, we'll add that to our TAM, Simon. So it's not included in. But we do think it's an accretive sizable opportunity. I think from the perspective of working with the consortium on the ESUN, it's similar to the InfiniBand going to Ethernet conversation we had 2 years ago. So we're very much excited to see that open up. From a technology design, it is and different than scale out and scale across. And maybe if you guys wanted to comment anything on that?
Yes. I mean, Simon, you probably saw the scale-up solution from a single vendor, probably about 6 to 12 months ago being announced. You've now got the same type of proprietary solution from a second vendor being announced as well. I think what's going to happen, and this is to Chantelle's point, what's going to happen over time is customers will want choice, right?
And so they want to do things standards-based way of doing things. And that for Arista is just going to be a positive, right? And as that matures over the next months, right? It's going to be our right to basically demonstrate to customers that if they're looking for an Ethernet-based solution inside a scale-up scenario, then they can choose Arista.
Yes. I was just going to check and make sure we -- the Ethernet was sort of the protocol of choice.
Yes, I was just going to say we -- one of the things I'd like to make sure we also emphasize when this question comes up is the hardware design capabilities of the company. Like Ashwin was saying, we've got hundreds of hardware design engineers, and these people are best-in-class, I would say.
And so there are a lot of challenges coming along with scale up, water cooling, all these kinds of things that are not that easy to engineer and Arista is very well positioned to do that for customers. So that's another thing that I think we bring to the party when scale-up comes around.
So I want to make sure we hit on the enterprise campus opportunity because your forecast suggests phenomenal growth off a small base, but it's a fairly large established industry, campus switching. How -- what sort of strategy? What's the time line? Is it sort of, hey, we're Arista and we're here and that's sufficient? What's the -- what gets you that kind of growth?
Well, we would never just say Arista, we're here and assume -- so it's very much top of mind and part of our DNA. The great thing is Arista declares an intention, you can assume the whole company is behind it because we only focus on networking. So starting in 2025 with a 5% share, similar to other things we've done in Arista's history, we will -- I won't say slowly, but we will chip away.
The reason I would say it's a little bit longer of a time frame is because you're talking 5, 7, 9 years of a refresh cycle. We've had others in the industry demonstrate and say there's a great opportunity for refresh coming up in the next few years. So we're very excited about that. We pulled together the portfolio. COVID put us a little back, I think, from a portfolio perspective, but now we've come out of COVID. Acquisition of Velo, bringing the SD-WAN solution together.
So we have a portfolio. Internally, we've got our go-to-market strategy. Todd Nightingale coming in has been a phenomenal resource and leadership working with Ashwin and team, just to say, hey, this is how we're going to approach the go-to-market. Maybe use channel a little bit more. We always get asked the channel. Are you going to over-rotate to the channel? We're not going to over rotate, but we will use it more when it comes to campus. Anything else you wanted to add, Ashwin?
Yes. No. I mean, if I had to summarize this, it would be investments in products, both on the campus, wired and wireless side, right? And we're making investments. We're making announcements on new products all the time. The go-to-market strategy is either twofold. It's either Chris and I investing in the direct focus on those teams, not only in the U.S. but globally as well, but not only for data center, but campus as well and routing in AI.
And then the third thing would be a channel as well, right? So Chris and I are both focused on the go-to-market strategy for campus through the channel. It's a long play, but we hear Simon, right, it's going to take time to go evolve as well. But we're happy with the results so far.
Right. So we'll do new logo acquisition, and we'll do land and expand. And one of the things, at least as CFO that I look for is, are we winning campus first. And we are winning campus first and sizable deals, some that are happening actually in the city. So I think that from that perspective, we go in and land and expand once you are a campus first, its validity on the Arista brand and the portfolio. I've seen them go from a campus win to the monitoring fabric and then we land a data center and then we go back the other way. So it can be a great land-and-expand opportunity.
So I sort of feel like I heard a slightly different message and it could be that I just missed it admittedly. But in the past, when we've done our channel checks, we typically hear channel partners say, "Yes, we see Arista, but they're channel unfriendly." And so it sounds like that's a change for you to become more channel-friendly. How far along is this? Is this something that's been ongoing and I missed it? Or is this a more recent exercise in terms of your strategy?
I think the way I would position it on behalf of the company is it's more of the same because we use channel now. I think it's the mix of what you do that's channel fulfilled versus channel-led. So I would say, I would consider us very friendly when it comes to channel fulfilled.
I didn't mean to offend you...
No, no. It's okay. I'm okay with this. But the channel-led, I think, is where other companies have taken more of a channel-led. We're more channel fulfilled. But we do leave into curated channel-led where we need it to happen, either geographically specific or in campus. So I guess you can keep checking in with them. But we're very much working with them because the campus is more of a go-to-market with channel as well as direct.
And what percentage or campus first? How do you -- how do you characterize that?
Yes, we don't disclose that, sorry.
Time flies, and we're having fun. Our times just about up. So I always like to close with the following, which is what do you feel is either the least appreciated or most misunderstood aspect of the Arista story?
I think right here, right now, given the growth of AI, if you look at -- everyone in this room probably has a different assumption on what they assume, but I assume you all have AI growing, which is very much network heavy you think the demand is increasing. There's room for many, many vendors to grow, and it's not always an or, it can very much be an and.
And so we'll continue with our Arista style. I would say, look for our guidance, look for our deferred revenue growth, look at our purchase commitments. And that will be -- those will be indicators for Arista, but we're very, very excited for the next 5 to 10 years on this journey.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Raymond James TMT & Consumer Conference
Arista Networks, Inc. — Raymond James TMT & Consumer Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Arista positioniert sich als "best‑of‑breed" reines Netzwerkunternehmen mit klarem Fokus auf AI‑Workloads. Management nennt ein TAM (Total Addressable Market) von 105 Mrd. USD (vorjahr 70 Mrd.) und erwartet ~10 Mrd. USD Umsatz im nächsten Jahr (+20% Wachstumsannahme). Ziel: Diversifikation weg von hoher Kundenzentrierung durch Ausbau Enterprise/Campus und Neocloud/Sovereign‑Geschäft.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Campus‑Push: Zielumsatz Campus: 800 Mio. USD in 2025 → 1,25 Mrd. USD in 2026; langfristig nur ~5% Marktanteil‑Ziel in dem Segment.
- AI‑Front/Back: Arista beansprucht Front‑ und Back‑End‑Fähigkeiten; erwartet Pull‑through von ~0,30–2,00 USD Front‑End pro Back‑End‑Dollar; Hardware+Software+Support als Gegenstück zur White‑Box‑Strategie.
- Go‑to‑Market: Investitionen in Produktportfolio, direkte Vertriebs‑ und Channel‑Strategie ("channel‑fulfilled", selektiv channel‑led) sowie stärkere Fokussierung auf Campus‑Wins.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Keine neue Quartals‑Earnings‑Guidance im Fireside; Management bestätigt das ~10 Mrd. USD‑Ziel und 20% Wachstumserwartung sowie das Analyst‑Day‑TAM von 105 Mrd. USD. Konkrete Campus‑Ziele sind die wichtigsten neuen Zahlen; Sovereign‑Timings wurden als bewusst konservativ eingepreist.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- AI‑Korrelation: Hauptfrage war die Unschärfe zwischen Back‑End (Training) und Front‑End (Inference/Edge) sowie die breite Pull‑through‑Spanne; Management betont Fungibilität der Hardware.
- Kundenkonzentration: Nachfrage nach Zielverringerung der Top‑Kunden‑Abhängigkeit; Management nennt Diversifikationsstrategie, veröffentlicht aber keine neuen Prozentangaben.
- White‑Box‑Debatte: Analysten hinterfragten Differenzierung gegenüber White‑Box; Antwort: Engineering‑Qualität, umfassender Support und Software‑Optionen sind die Abgrenzung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Der Fireside‑Chat bestätigt Aristas AI‑getriebene Wachstumsstory und liefert konkrete Campus‑Ziele, ohne die Guidance fundamental zu ändern. Kurzfristig bleibt das Timing großer Hyperscaler/Neocloud/Sovereign‑Projekte das Hauptrisiko; mittelfristig besteht substantieller Upside durch Diversifikation. Wichtige Frühindikatoren für Investoren: Deferred Revenue, Purchase Commitments und Campus‑Win‑Momentum.
Arista Networks, Inc. — UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. Thank you again for joining UBS' tech conference here in Arizona. I think this is probably the premier event, so promoting our conference here.
We're excited to have with us today, Arista Networks. With me today, we have Chantelle Breithaupt, CFO; and from Investor Relations, Rudolph Araujo. So we're going to talk 30 minutes about, I think, topics that everyone is kind of focused on given what's going on in the marketplace. So we're going to start with your outlook for '26.
Great.
So roughly 6 to 8 weeks ago, you provided an outlook for 2026. I think, in usual Arista fashion, the outlook was viewed as relatively conservative. So maybe let's start there and talk about how you see fiscal '26 or calendar '26 playing out? And I think it helps investors understand your view and your perspective on how we get there. Like I think in the past, you've talked about multiple vectors, multiple ways to get to the number. Maybe let's start with '26 and then we can drill deeper into each of the different businesses.
Yes. Great. Thank you. So hi to everyone in the room. Good morning. Thank you, David, for having Rudy and I here today.
So we're very excited. We're very excited about how we're finishing FY '25, which -- we'll get into FY '26. At the midpoint, looking at almost 27% growth started in the year at 15% to 17%, operating margin at 48%. So a fantastic year. We're proud of that. And for the first time ever, we've talked about the following year as early as August, having our Analyst Day in September, usually, it's in November and already stating a goal of 20% growth going into next year.
The piece and component parts to your question, we're very excited about two goals that we've laid out in that target of 20% growth. The first one is our campus target. We're aiming to do $800 million in FY '25, setting a goal for ourselves next year of $1.25 billion. So that's a 50% growth going into next year, super excited, starting at 5% market share.
And then looking at the AI center target, combining the front and back end, exiting FY '25 at $1.5 billion plus, we'll see how we finish the year and laying out a target of 2.75% -- $2.75 billion, excuse me, for next year, which is anywhere between a 60% and 80% growth for the AI. So two very clear targets, setting the direction for the team and the company.
Now the piece component, so you're saying, okay, those are really great growth rates, but you're giving us 20%, we will not guide the following year, assuming everything hits 100%. What we'll do is look at the year as we go into the February earnings call with 2 quarters of visibility, and we'll continue to guide the year as we see it go through. But we're excited about all the pieces and components of the company.
So I want to dig into each of those components separately. But obviously, we have to start with AI and infrastructure. So this year, front-end, AI-centric back-end, $1.5 billion, you guided to $2.75 billion. I guess the question that we get from investors all the time is when we think about CapEx trends from the large hyperscalers, your two largest and a third large player, when we think about your inventory, your purchase commitments, how should we think about the correlation or maybe sort of the relationship from those macro data points to how you're thinking about '26 from a visibility perspective and how that kind of underpins your forecast for next year?
Yes, it's a great question. So if you think about some of these fantastic CapEx numbers that you've seen in '24, '25 and now going into '26, the relationship to that announcement to Arista recognizing revenue has not really changed in duration too much. It goes from the announcement to us receiving a design win to us building it out to us -- and then eventually recognizing the revenue.
So that time frame can be 24 months even. So if you're hearing CapEx numbers now, you're talking for us '26, '27 type of revenue. And so I think if you take that combined with our deferred revenue growth, we exited Q3 of the -- deferred revenue growth of 86%. In deferred revenue, we have time frames of 12, 18 -- more 18 to 24 months. So you're looking at '26, '27.
And so I think that understanding the duration and the complex environments we're working within, it takes a lot of power, cooling facilities, cabling, employees to make some of these largest, really phenomenal deployments to happen. But that's how you see it. You see it in the purchase commitments, you see it in the deferred revenue. You see it in our guide, you see it in our '25 actuals. So we're very excited by that robust environment that we're seeing.
So to your point -- can I walk back a little bit?
Sure.
So you talk about the CapEx that we're seeing now really starts to filter in '26, '27 given the road map 12 to 24 months. So is it a fair assumption to make that what we're going to see in '26 are programs, design wins that will turn into revenue recognition for you in '26 that have already been speced, designed -- you've been designed into them, and you're just waiting on basically approval from large customers to rev rec them. Is that...
For the AI component, what we're speaking about...
For the AI component.
Yes, the larger AI deployments for sure, the hyperscalers, some of the neoclouds, some of the larger ones, that's absolutely what's in that category.
And how would you characterize -- if we had this conversation, which I think we did a year ago, the visibility and the time line in terms of -- from program, design -- well, from RFP to design win to rev rec, has there been any sort of dynamic change in the relationship? Or is it to ad hoc by customer by customer to kind of -- like a sort of a nice, neat, tidy package in terms of like how do we think about...
Yes. Yes, I think that -- so our relationships remain strong. We're very grateful for them. We are very excited to have some of the deepest, funnest, geekist tech conversations that there are, that has not changed. What has changed is the size of the cluster, the environments, the architectures, the difference in designs, all those things have changed because everyone's trying to figure out what's the most optimal way to get every possible power usage consumption saver out of what we're putting together.
So what's changed is the complexity, what has changed is the speed and cadence, what's changed are the power constraints, what's changed are the amount of optics in some of the 2- and 3-tier designs. All those things that were complicated, but what hasn't changed is Arista being a trusted partner for some of these largest things. So now it's just time to make it happen. We have a great example of one customer that needed 1,000 people to come in to put in the optics, for example. Like these things take time, but we're very excited.
So since you brought up the clusters are getting larger. If we go back again, 6, 9 months ago, we talked about 4 to 5 large customers building out larger and larger clusters, upwards of 100,000 GPUs or accelerators, where are we today with these large customers that you've talked about pretty consistently over the last 2 to 3 quarters?
Like as we go into '26, how much of that incremental growth that we're going to see in AI-centric revenue is coming from these large customers versus that tail that you have? I think you've talked about a very large tail of 30 to 40 other customers. Like how do we think -- how should investors think about the weighting of like the contribution next year from these deals?
Yes. I think it's going to be a mix for sure. So of the four pilots that we speak about, they're all on track as we expect from a timing and how it's going perspective. Three of the four are anticipated to be within this year. One might happen, as Jayshree likes to say, December 32, but very close. The fourth one is a customer who's intentionally going from InfiniBand to Ethernet. And so we're very happy to be on that journey with them.
So all as expected, but you'll have some of the deferred coming out, which are some of the larger customers, you'll have some new projects coming in. This long tail end can include some of the great neocloud conversations. We're very excited when the neoclouds come to us, when it's an open, best-of-breed architecture conversation to say, we've seen the great partnerships you have with hyperscalers. We'd love to have that. We need to differentiate ourselves within the neocloud, sovereign AI community, help us differentiate based on our network and our and our design. And Rudy, you can...
Yes. I mean I think with the neoclouds, they -- individually, they're probably not spending at the same levels as the hyperscalers, right? But they all add up. So I think that long tail, as you called it, is a pretty thick tail in that sense.
And then to Chantelle's point, I think what they're realizing is the network can actually be a pretty big differentiator for them in their offerings to their customers, right? Because at the end of the day, if you're just another GPU-as-a-service vendor, like what's the value prop that you're delivering to your customers. And so yes, they want to have these deep conversations about how can we draw every ounce out of the network in terms of shrinking job completion times, for instance, or time to first job, right? So those are the kinds of conversations we end up having with them.
And presumably on the hyperscaler side, these are large training environments for the most part. It's very early days in terms of inference, is that the same characterization that you would make for neoclouds? That they're training models? Or is it really -- are you starting to see maybe the early stages of hey, we actually have to think about what inference is going to look like and Arista, how can you help us on job completion time, et cetera...
Yes. I mean some of them I'd say are really optimizing for inference from the get-go, right, because they realize that maybe that's the opportunity. I mean, the thing about that's unique about inference is you want to be as close to the person that's asking the question, so to speak, right? And so a lot of these neoclouds, especially sometimes some of the sovereign clouds are trying to be that last mile.
And so they are actually building from the ground up to optimize for inference rather than for training because they figure maybe training will happen at the hyperscalers, right? So it's a variety of use cases, David, but I wouldn't say inferencing is lagging behind.
So is that a different type of sort of conversation then historically? So if you think about optimizing for inference day 1 versus let's go pre-AI, obviously, front end, traditional workload, I think, is a fairly -- not standard, but I think well understood kind of road map in terms of what customers were trying to solve for. Does inference bring to bear -- or does it require you to bring to bear different technologies and skill sets? Like -- or is it leveraging what you've built over the last decade plus and extrapolating it into like this optimization for inference?
Go ahead.
Well, I think the only thing, I'd start with kind of the framework we've been trying to use because I don't think -- we're still so nascent, I don't think we have an exact model, and I think it's fluid, and I think it's changing. But the one thing we try to take a look at is for every $1 dollar of back-end spend -- not that back end and front end is strictly training and inference, but let's use it as a proxy. For every $1 dollar of back-end spend, we see $0.30 to $2 spent on the front-end inference side. And the reason being is they see, depending on their policy of who needs to be in the office, how much does AI need to be at the edge, where does it actually have to push the information to, what's the data mesh architecture that they're using.
So if the customer had just recently refreshed their traditional front-end data center, now let's call it maybe an AI center, they might not need as much. But if they're on a refresh cycle and they're trying to do their AI agenda, that could be -- so we feel there's a lot -- probably a lot stronger over time inference opportunity front end, which we're very well known in as a brand and vendor.
So we're super excited about both. I think you heard Ken say on the earnings call, outside of China, we're probably the leading, if not one of the leading vendors to have front-end, back-end optionality in portfolio. So we're super excited by the general opportunity.
To that point, Chantelle, is that a competitive advantage? So Ken's point on the earnings call was you can bring to bear the entire solution, front end, back end. And obviously, there are some new vendors who are primarily focused on back-end, legacy -- on a legacy basis, missed this huge cloud demand in the front end. So does that give you sort of a competitive moat or an advantage when you're having these conversations? Or is it just still a best-of-breed for the back end? Like how much of the bundling dynamic actually comes to bear when you're thinking about a relationship with a customer or a new customer?
Well, the great thing is as the back-end network is a net new TAM. If you think about the TAM, we've gone from $60 billion to $70 billion to $105 billion over 2 years. So a lot part of that is this back-end AI coming in.
So I think it gives us an advantage. More than one vendor can grow. We feel we have an advantage when it comes to portfolio options, when it comes to be agnostic to the accelerator of the chip, LPO, CPO, a lot of optionality, a lot of great choice for the customers, if choice is allowed for a best-of-breed. We're not sure what's offered under a bundled scenario because we wouldn't see it. But we know when we are in front of the customer doing proof of concept, we have a very high win rate and chance of winning.
Got it. And then maybe just one other question on kind of how we're thinking about '26. So when we look at '26, how important is it for your road map to have new silicon for '26, right? There's a lot of discussion about 1.6 coming down the pipeline. You're very closely tied to Broadcom. Obviously, it's been a great relationship, great partnership. Because I think on the last call, there was a little bit of concern about maybe some supply chain variability, impacting your ability to ship and hit targets. How do we think about that kind of potential dynamic playing out in '26?
Yes. So I want to just clarify, there was no intention meant to say there's anything at risk for Q4 FY '25 or FY '26, just to be sure, since I have the audience here, there's no intention there. But there was intention to talk about it would be naive, we'd be remiss as an industry to not say, "Hey, there's tightness in the system." There's capacity tightness, some people talk about memory, that's a small part of our business.
So we just wanted to be -- we lean into some purchase commitments. We wanted to make sure that '26 and going into '27 with some of these new products coming in, that we were going to be well positioned and we feel that we are. That's part of our purchase commitment increase along with just pure demand increase because we have 1-year lead times, because we deal with a very well-executed machine in Broadcom providing us the chips.
And so now we don't preannounce. So you can be sure if there's a new technology we're working on it, but we don't preannounce until it's ready.
I was going to come back to financials later, but since you brought purchase commitments and preparing. So at your Investor Day a number of months ago, you gave a gross margin guide, some of it, I think, if -- correct me if you feel differently, investors interpreted to be sort of to try to future-proof your gross margin from this dynamic that you referenced. Is there, in your mind, a buffer in your gross margin outlook for '26 that takes into consideration sort of the challenging supply chain dynamics, whether it's memory or other components? Is that a way to think about -- how to think about your initial outlook for '26?
Yes. So for the guide for FY '26, just to remind, 62% to 64%, which we think is still a great gross margin range. That is purely based on what we anticipate to be the current mix of end customer. So we have basically cloud and enterprise, if you want to make it those two big animal pictures for the end customer segment. That just means if it's more of a 62%, it's more cloud heavy.
So that's what was in there, to your point, David. We feel that our supply chain team has done a fantastic job getting ahead of any potential price increases with multiyear agreements with having dual source, multi-source spending, multi-vendor sourcing. So I think from that perspective, that's not a price component pressure...
It's customer mix, customer mix.
Yes.
So then along those lines, if I maybe disaggregate your '26 outlook, I think some of the feedback that we've gotten, and I think you probably have gotten this also, if I look at your AI-centric targets, what you're thinking about campus going from $800 million in '25 to $1.250 billion in '26, it doesn't imply a lot of growth in the more traditional Arista business where you've been historically a share taker, how should investors think about that? Because if that was the case, if that business does grow faster, that's traditional enterprise, which comes at a higher gross margin, and that would skew us towards the higher end of the gross margin range.
Right. So you're spot on. Nothing has changed in my style, Jayshree's style, we would not give a guide that assumed 100% of everything, went very well. So that hasn't changed in our style and we'll start the year with our 20% growth, and we'll continue...
Right. The margin will spill out accordingly.
And we'll continue to update best on mix, what the margin profile is. And so we're being consistent through this very frothy time frame to be -- I think that style works even better nowadays in the sense of kind of what's going on around us to make sure we're pretty clear and give a number we know we can hit and then we'll continue to filter...
So sticking on enterprise for a second. So enterprise AI presumably is virtually nothing in your numbers for '26. How are you thinking about that road map from your customer perspective, given how successful you've been on traditional enterprise data center, taking a lot of market share over the last decade. What do you see from your customers from a road map perspective? Like what are the -- any sort of sense for problems that they're trying to solve, how they're thinking about this? Is it a '27 dynamic given visibility might take 12 months to get there for them? Or is it a little bit further out from your perspective?
Yes. So -- go ahead.
Well, there is some enterprise -- we talked about, like you said, 30 to 40 other customers, and that's not all neoclouds, there's some enterprise in there. But it is, to your point, it is smaller. I think enterprise AI is playing out in two ways, right? One is inferencing is a bigger deal for them. I think most of them seem to be inclined to use the hyperscalers for training and then do inferencing either on-prem or like near prem, so to speak.
And then the other thing is it's influencing their campus decisions, too, right, because that last mile ultimately is what affects the end user experience. So WiFi 7, for instance, upgrades are happening maybe faster than you might have seen in previous generations, and WiFi 7 requires more power, which means power of Ethernet, which is upgrade. So it is actually playing out in two different ways, I guess, something to keep in mind.
So -- okay. So that's a good segue to campus. So obviously, campus, we're going through a bit of an upgrade cycle. We're seeing it from the biggest player, has a big refresh. You've talked about taking your campus business from $800 million, as I mentioned earlier, with Velo to $1.250 billion. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think when we've done the math, it looks like your campus business should be margin accretive to the portfolio. Is that accurate? Is that fair? And if so -- gross margin accretive.
I know you've given a lot of investment opportunity to Todd and his team to kind of grow this business. How should investors think about sort of that business and the priority of campus within the Arista portfolio?
Yes. So we're super excited. Todd is here to help, really happy that he's here. And so I think that -- so you mentioned the goal, $800 billion to $1.25 billion, that's a couple of different ways, that's new logo acquisition and then land and expand.
So new logo acquisitions, Todd and the team were definitely talking about okay, what's our plan? You've heard other people talk about great refresh cycles coming over the next 2 years, which we absolutely see as an opportunity for us to go and work with those customers. I'll get to the margin point in just a second. On land and expand, we're super excited that we have the portfolio and brand recognition that now we're winning campus first and then land and expand to the data center. So that's fantastic from our opinion.
The margin, the margin really depends on the end customer mix. So we do have campus in hyperscalers, and we have campus in enterprise. Enterprise generally is more margin accretive. So the more it's enterprise campus, yes, it would be now [ $1.25 billion on $10.5 billion. ] It starts that up. This is a slow and steady. Again, campus for us is our slow and steady, rinse, repeat data center over time, whereas the hyperscalers and the neoclouds kind of...
Why do you think you're winning with campus in some cases, first, when historically it had been sort of, hey, we lead with the enterprise data center product, people understand the technology that we bring to bear, it's extrapolated to the campus, but now it sounds like you're winning more -- not to say that you're not winning that way, but you're winning more often now with campus first.
It's not more often. It's -- just to give you an example, we do sometimes win for campus first. So a couple of reasons. One is we've been discussing with the customer, we're trying to get in there. And for their perspective, now they're coming up on a refresh cycle or they see -- we see tailwinds from competitor actions, either they're confused by the road map on some of the mergers and acquisitions or they're maybe not clear on the intention with all the other distractions in the company offering -- also offering networking.
So I think we're just getting in now that we're seen as a true player in the field. But we're only 11 years post-IPO. So first, we kind of declared cloud, data center high performance. And now we're saying campus. So when we declare a goal in our number, it is absolutely an intention. So AI centers and campus have our attention. But all the other stuff does, too, but we're intentional.
So you mentioned competitor uncertainty. Obviously, we're 1.5 years to 2 years into a large competitor announcement, not quite deal closing. I mean I would imagine it's hard to kind of tag that deal we won because of maybe uncertainty in the market. But are you seeing more RFPs? Like how should we think about your ability to kind of win given that degree of maybe technological uncertainty between those two competitors that are now one, and could it be meaningful enough over the long term while they kind of work to kind of integrate two different technological stacks?
Yes, it is meaningful. And we're absolutely seeing, can you -- we would happy to have you come in now, Arista because we're not sure on the incumbent's go-forward strategy. Those are absolutely calls that we're getting and we're happy to take. And then we get in with a proof of concept and then we have a high win rate. So...
And does Todd have the marching orders to go out there and find great channel partners? I know that's part of the expense like -- so adding more channel partners. Obviously, you're never going to be Cisco from a channel partner perspective. But like what are you looking for from a partner per se? And what is Todd -- what are some of the metrics that he's focused on to build that footprint for your business?
Yes. So I think speaking on behalf of Todd, if he was here, he'd say he's focused on international as he's coming in, and he has a great background globally with his prior roles. He's focused on this campus refresh cycle. And the distinction we're working through is, so we're not going to do 80% through partners, that's not our goal. But to do a bit more, we're not looking to go down to SMB. We're looking to stay at the top-tier enterprise, and we're balancing partners helping us with fulfillment and partners helping us with leading and landing deals.
And so that balance is what we're working through. How much do we want to -- we're very much direct led with our sales team, which do a great job. It's more expanding the footprint, the number of customers we can...
And to your point, I think that you made earlier, the confusion with customers is there's a similar confusion with the partner community too, right, because partner programs have been changing, et cetera. So I think what we're trying to do is just be a good partner to them. And ultimately, I think if you deliver a great technology, makes them look good, right? It gives them services opportunities, things of that nature. So that's the overall strategy.
Got it. Okay. I wanted to hit the campus -- get that out of the way. So come back to data center. So there's a lot of moving pieces in data center, whether it's scale up, scale out, scale across, maybe it's a little bit different or nuanced than DCI historically. There was a lot of announcements coming out of OCP, about ESUN. How are we thinking about within your context of your longer-term view?
I think I might have asked this on the call to Jayshree, but when you think about scale up versus scale out and scale across, obviously, scale up has not been an opportunity for Arista, how are we thinking about -- maybe I don't know if you can rank order them? Or just how are you thinking about how investors should think about the opportunity there for a market that had been effectively nonexistent for you for Arista's 10-plus year of existence. Scale up...
Yes. So we're super excited. For us, this is a similar playbook to 2 years ago talking about InfiniBand moving to Ethernet. Now we're talking about other technology moving to Ethernet. So we'll go through a similar cycle of an ecosystem of community coming together to say, let's have open standards, let's get it to Ethernet. That's kind of the FY '26 time frame that Jayshree was articulating. It's going to take about a year or so for this ecosystem. So the whole thing is ready, the standards are ready.
But we're absolutely excited coming into '27. We have some great thought leaders in the company that have some views on how this could be a great opportunity. It's not in our $105 billion TAM. So it would be accretive. We're not sure how big that -- we're sizing it up to see. So we don't have an answer just yet because it is so new, but we're working on it. And so I think that as we come out and work with the community, we'll be a player and be super excited to participate.
I mean, the other thing about scale-up that also adds some degree of variability is that it will manifest itself in a rack style form factor, right? So that's the other part of it that needs to be figured out too.
So obviously, you're coming at scale up fresh, large GPU providers bundling and coming into networking from a different angle, how do you think about your position in scale out and scale across as a GPU provider is looking to bundle?
Like I'm just trying to think we get this question a lot. The competitive dynamics, obviously, they're selling NICs, they're selling switches. They've got software, full-stack solution. So I just want to get a sense for how you're thinking about the competitive landscape.
Yes. So I think -- okay, so I think there's always going to be more than one player. So if there's two, that's not abnormal. So two is fine, there needs to be competition in the market. The market is growing that everyone can grow. But where do we win? We win when the best-of-breed choice is an option. We win when the customer is looking for agnostic to the chip, the accelerator, CPO, LPO, the broad portfolio that allows designs of 2-Tier, 3-tier scheduled, nonscheduled fabric.
And so I think the breadth of the hardware, the EOS software, the agnostic to all the components around that I mentioned, generally, we find customers want to do best-of-breed choices and not be locked into a proprietary head-to-toe design is what we generally see. Now sometimes commercial things will cause them to make different choices. And perhaps once those things are done, they'll come back and come to a best-of-breed option. But we feel even that aside, we have a ton of runway and TAM to go get, but we'll give you growth that we find is exciting. Yes.
Does your blue box solution play into the strategy? How do we think about blue box in the portfolio of what Arista brings to bear from best-in-breed to maybe a little bit of a different offering with blue box, is that in response to white box, in response to bundling, like how do we think about how that...
Yes. So it's a great question. So it's great to position it. blue box has been in our vernacular in the sense of us using it with the hyperscalers for customers that do their own NOS, their own at FBOSS, SONiC. We've been doing that for a while, it's in our run rate. So in the scale out, scale across environments.
Scale up is a blue box opportunity, and I'll let Rudy talk technically in a second why that's more operational. Blue box is not in response to white box. It's two different areas. blue box actually came to be when our larger customers wanted to have dual-sourced optionality. So they could enjoy the hardware of Arista underneath all the NetDI operating firmware system stuff, but they also put their software on top. So they could say, I have Arista network box here with the OS, and I have one here with SONiC. It gives me a dual source. I can move it across as I need to. That was the use case for blue box, different than the white box market. Did you want to...
Yes. I think the scale-up side, maybe the opportunity for blue box is because the scale-up networks are less complex in a sense, right? So there's probably a lower software load there. And so it gives customers the ability to have a very thin software layer on top of a highly reliable piece of hardware, right? And I think that's an important thing to make sure people understand is the blue box hardware is not any different than the standard hardware that you'd buy -- so the hardware differentiation is still there. The NetDI differentiation is still there. It's only whether you have your own OS or not.
So do you think that ultimately, there's an opportunity to run EOS in scale up? Or I would imagine you probably don't need it to your point. So it's just going to run like SONiC or some other...
Yes. Or maybe even a scaled down...
Even a lower version. Like a degraded version.
We just created a new term, scale down. But we're super excited about the pieces that we can contribute from the NetDI hardware side. And that's a good use case for blue box.
Got it. So I guess what I'd like to do in the minute remaining is give you an opportunity to maybe kind of touch on maybe things that are kind of important to the story that haven't come across either on the earnings call or here today in any of your meetings. So give you an opportunity to kind of...
Yes, thank you. Close it out? Yes. So we are -- as a company, we've never been more excited. I've been here 2 years, but you heard from Jayshree, who's been here from the beginning, she just sees a great road map ahead for Arista. We have a style, which you guys know as our community. We've already guided 20% for next year, ending this year at close to 27%. 43%, 45%, 48% operating margin, depending on the investments that we do.
So we're super excited. We feel the market has enough room, $2.3 trillion spent on AI in the next 5 years. So we appreciate your faith in us in the sense of taking opportunity of this AI opportunity.
Great. Well, thank you, Chantelle. Thank you, Rudolph. Thank you, everyone.
Thank you.
Thank you. Have a great day.
Have a great day, everyone.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025
Arista Networks, Inc. — UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Arista sieht FY'26 als Beschleunigungsjahr: Ziel 20% Wachstum getragen von zwei Hebeln — AI-Infrastructure (Front‑ + Back‑end) und Campus. Management betont lange Umsatz‑Visibility durch Purchase Commitments und starkes Deferred Revenue; Guidance bleibt bewusst konservativ und wird schrittweise aktualisiert.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- AI‑Ambition: Ziel für AI‑Infrastruktur: $2,75 Mrd. (Front‑ + Back‑end). Fokus auf große Hyperscaler‑Cluster und ein „dicker“ Long‑Tail aus Neoclouds und souveränen Clouds.
- Campus‑Push: Campus soll von $800 Mio. auf $1,25 Mrd. wachsen – Mix aus New‑Logo‑Gewinnen und Land‑and‑Expand; Enterprise‑Campus ist tendenziell margenfreundlicher.
- Produkt/Ökosystem: Blue box (Hardware mit kundenseitigem NOS) für Dual‑Sourcing; Arista setzt auf Portfolio‑Breite, Chip‑Agnostik und NetDI‑Hardware als Wettbewerbsvorteile.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Konkretes Ziel: Management nennt erstmals explizite Zahlen für Campus ($1,25 Mrd.) und AI ($2,75 Mrd.) für FY'26; Deferred Revenue wuchs zuletzt +86% (Q3‑Exit), Recognition‑Horizonte typ. 12–24 Monate.
- Margenrahmen: Frühere Angabe bleibt: Gross Margin erwartet 62–64%, Management führt das primär auf Kundenmix zurück (Cloud vs. Enterprise).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Visibility: Hauptherausforderung ist Timing: CapEx‑Ankündigungen der Kunden können 12–24 Monate bis zur Umsatzrealisierung dauern; Arista sieht Revisionen eher in Earnings‑Updates (Februar) mit mehr Sichtbarkeit.
- Kundenmix: Wie viel Wachstum kommt von wenigen großen Hyperscalern vs. dem breiten Long‑Tail? Antwort: Mix aus beidem; mehrere große Piloten auf Kurs, Long‑Tail kumuliert bedeutend.
- Supply/Chips: Enge in einigen Komponenten/Capacity vorhanden; Arista erhöht Purchase Commitments und setzt auf Broadcom‑Partnerschaft und Multi‑Sourcing, ohne konkrete Risiken für FY'26 zu sehen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikationen: Call liefert erstmals konkrete Zielgrößen für AI und Campus und unterstreicht starke Nachfrage‑Signale plus lange Umsatz‑Vorläufe. Kurzfristig bleibt Visibility begrenzt; langfristig erhöht sich der adressierbare Markt, was für Aktionäre Wachstumspotenzial bei gleichzeitiger Konzentration auf Mix‑getriebene Margen bedeutet.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Wells Fargo's 9th Annual TMT Summit
1. Question Answer
Well, why don't we go ahead and get started, try and keep us on schedule here. So extremely excited to host a 35-minute discussion with the Arista team. So we've got Chantelle Breithaupt, and we've got Martin Hull, obviously, CFO, Vice President and General Manager of Cloud and AI platforms for Arista. If there's time at the end, I might ask anybody who has a question, please raise your hand, but I'm going to jump right in. Chantelle, thank you for joining us. Martin, always good to see you.
I'm just going to start here because it came up a lot post the recent earnings. The company put up great results as expected. The debate seems to be the 2% guide, right, on the Q4. So maybe we could start by just talking a little bit and Martin jump into what you're seeing from a supply chain component perspective, how that's maybe affected some of the shaping and the timing of product availability. Just walk us through the puts and takes around that.
Good morning to those in the room and those on the webcast. So I think that I would kind of almost decouple those 2 things, Aaron, and I think it's a great question. So thanks for bringing it up. As regard to Q4 FY '25 and FY '26 in general, we don't see any constraint issues on revenue. Anything that we see in the industry, we've either addressed through our purchase commitments, which we raised to ensure we have the supply we need this year and next year and perhaps beyond. And also to take a look at the fact that we are confident in 20% guide for next year, as early as September at our Analyst Day. And I think that's the earliest you've seen Arista come out with such a bold guide. So we're very enthusiastic about that.
So I think the constraint in the industry is across the industry, it's not Arista specific, and we just want to make sure, Jayshree, in the earnings remarks, hey, just heads up. There's some things here. It could be memory, it could be fab capacity. The revenue guide, as Arista, we have a pragmatic style. And I would encourage you to think about the growth, both you see in the P&L and what you see in deferred. You saw deferred revenue grow 87% in Q3. And so I encourage everyone to look at the both combined. We'll see where we end up in Q4 and how we finished the year and how we guide in February for '26. But we're very excited.
And for those who have known Arista and Jayshree well, Hopefully, you heard her enthusiasm in the Q3 earnings call.
Yes. I would say that -- I think it was the first question on the call. She said I've never been felt as good about the growth that we see in front of us going forward. Talk a little bit about the deferred. How do we think, I think 18 months gets thrown around. That's more of an average. You expanded your product deferred, which maybe you talk on a total basis, but product deferred another $625 million this last quarter. I think prior quarter was $687 million, extremely robust growth in product deferred. So that pragmatic approach to guidance, how do we kind of pack product deferred vis-a-vis revenue generation? How is that factored into the calculus when you think about guides?
Yes, sure. And so I think I appreciate the opportunity to provide further education because Arista's business model is changing in the sense of how deferred plays. I started January 2024. And I think give or take that timing earlier, deferred was a cloud build-out services, your regular kind of maybe 6 to 12 months. As we progress through '24 and '25, now we have some of the largest, most complicated data center build-out for AI centers. And those take a lot to come together. They're based on acceptance criteria. And so we've moved from 6 to 12 months to 18 to 24 months for some of these larger deployments. And so -- in the modeling, I would encourage you to think about that time shift difference between that. And so you'd lean more towards 18 to 24. Given the amount of growth in deferred, it's related to these AI build-outs and the new products. So that's how I'd ask you to consider that from a modeling and timing perspective.
And just to be clear, you've not -- Martin, power availability, shelf space, component dynamics, have you seen any kind of indicators or dynamics that have changed deployment plans for some of these larger projects?
So I think when we talk about commissioning in a new data center from literally breaking ground, then you're talking about a more than 12-month horizon on the construction cycle. That can get delayed for permitting or power or who knows where in the architecture and supply of a physical building. That's not on our time line. The time line where we get involved is the customer is talking to us about what they want to deploy in that data center and when they want to deploy it.
When we get to -- I don't know what the phase is, the building is dry, right? It's got a roof on, it's got power. At that point, we're having in-depth conversations about what architecture, what density, what product choices are going to go in there. That can vary by plus or minus a quarter. But we're not talking about plus or minus a year at that phase because the building is up, powered and they're getting ready for deployment cycles. We can have conversations with customers about -- we're thinking about this, but what about this and now that variability comes into product choice, that variability maybe comes into exactly when and where say, plus or minus 1/4 is kind of that ratio on there.
Yes. And then everybody's got different ways to try and kind of backwards in the math and how we think about the networking opportunity. I think One of the things that's very clear is the networking opportunity is only getting more relevant as these clusters get larger. We go from scale out, scale up, scale across and complexity will continue. When we think about -- pick your number, gigawatt of deployment or we think about Lisa Su's comment last week of $1 trillion of AI silicon TAM. How do you think about -- how has it evolved your thoughts around the networking piece of that opportunity?
It's very difficult to pick down from the power or even the spend on the GPU or the accelerator side of it. It's very difficult to kind of go, okay, so take that number, divide by 4 and divide by another 1,000. So we kind of work from the bottom up. right? If the price of the GPU doubles our halves, I just know what I'm going to do. I don't think that changes the value of the network. And so that divider is the problem. So I tend to work from a bottoms-up approach. How many ports, how many blades, how many switches, how many interconnects in a given network architecture, 9,000 nodes, 16,000, 32,000. Okay, we can do that. .
But if I try and work backwards to how much that CapEx is on the compute side of it, I don't know that we got the information on the pricing side of all of that. And we certainly don't have information on the cost of the building. So we tend not to try and divide that down. You guys can all do that. I'm happy for you to try and give me the answers. But we tend to work from the bottom up in terms of how many ports, 400-gig, 800-gig going to 1.6, okay, but I can do some math. We have a product choice as well. That portfolio of products from our X-Series to our R-Series can introduce another level of variability.
You mentioned scale across. Scale across is kind of data center interconnect, that incremental revenue is smaller than the total spend on the back-end network itself, but it's another factor. And you can't know from how much they're spending on the building, how much they're going to need for data center interconnect. Those 2 things are independent really.
Yes. And the only thing I would add to it, in addition to what Martin's comments were -- was that if you -- when we were talking maybe 2 years ago, we would get asked the question of a data center build out what percentage are you over spend and I think at that time, we were using basically high single digit, low double digit kind of the 9% to 11%. Our best estimates because we're still finishing some of the larger AI centers is maybe that's moved from 5% to 7% versus the 9% to 11%, but still TBD, but just to give a framework versus what we used to use to try to solidify that.
And just to be clear, with the audience, that is obviously the definitions of what is AI is different depending on what company you talk to, right? That is just switching. It's not anything else. There's no transceivers, there's no optics. There's no, right -- because that definitely differs from if it's NVIDIA or some of your other peers that report these AI networking numbers, correct?
Yes. Well, I would say that the difference between the 5 to 7 to 8 would be if optics were NRO likely. It could be, but everything else we would exclude.
Yes. Yes. When we talk about our AI numbers, we're talking about the switches, the routers, physical devices. We're not counting optics in there. And we're definitely not counting NICs because we don't have any. .
Yes, exactly. The company's over these last several quarters consistently talked about the 4 customer deployments, 100,000 GPUs. Can you just remind us of where we're at on of those deployments and where we're going, maybe or how we should think about where we're going over the next 12 to 24 months, pick your horizon?
So we're very excited. Obviously, we have expansion beyond these 4, but we talk about these 4 because they're indicative as we started to get into this AI cycle, what it meant to us as a company. I think that the 4 are going well, 3 of the 4 are coming into production this year, maybe into January, but basically, we call it December 32 kind of thing. So very close. The fourth one, which is a transition from InfiniBand to Ethernet, that one is expected and on track for next year is the earliest part from the sense of revenue recognition from us. That's right. But we have lots of other AI central opportunities. We talked about basically 25 to 40 other customers between Tier 2 enterprise, specialty providers kind of customers in neocloud, sovereign state. So we're very excited about those conversations as well.
And that ultimately underpins right, the $2.75 billion guide for AI, front end, back end for 2026 versus the $1.5 billion for '25. How has your -- in these customers, how has it evolved in terms of your breadth of deployment? Any kind of anecdotes that you can share of like you've won these customers, but it's expanded your upsell, if you will, opportunity in these?
So there's 2 axes on that one. So that is within the, let's say, top 4. Within the top could be 5, it could be 6. Within the top customers, we're having more deployments. They started in the second phase, third phase, and we're keeping enrolling. Now these are customers who -- many of the household names, they're not going to slow down to in AI deployments. And so that continues to grow on multiple locations, both in the U.S. and internationally.
And then there's a set of next customers. These are large customers in their own right. They're not necessarily in that top tier. But for each one of those, there will be a first phase and then typically a second phase and occasionally a third and then maybe they'll stop because they've achieved their business, their business goals. So we are seeing -- we've talked about it on the earnings. We're talking about 15 to 20 customers in that vanguard. They're not all neoclouds. They're not all sovereign wealth funds. There are some AI as a service providers in there. So we're seeing that broader base of customers who are putting their first deployments in calendar year '25 that will go through a pilot to production. Calendar year '26 is a second generation or an expansion of that. So it's getting broader and the ones that we're in first with are getting deeper.
So the $1.5 billion to $2.75 billion would you say that, that's majority heavily driven by just your top 4 hyperscalers? Or is that...
No, it's across the customer set. It's across the 4 and the 15 to 20. And there's possibly pull-ins from like you were mentioning, there could be campus, if there's more inference and agenetic happening in their own companies. And I just want to take a moment to friendly remind that's revenue recognized, not orders, right? We talk about revenue. So we are talking about $1.5 billion to $2.7 billion revenue recognized.
Great point. You touched on it and I think scale out is where the predominant majority of your business is in the AI, the scale across is like what might have been called DCI, not too terribly long ago, has now become scale across. Scale-up is still opportunity set, kind of TBD more '27 than it is '26. Can you help us maybe -- how do we think about Arista in the context of the scale-up opportunity?
Well, I'll start in the sense of positioning and then Martin can speak how it works from a product and technical perspective. So at Analyst Day in September, we talked about Arista having $105 billion TAM growing from the $70 billion we had said just a year before. So very excited about the TAM growth. And in that, there is no scale up TAM. So this is a net new TAM to that number, just a position. We're still exploring what that TAM could be waiting for the Ethernet conversation for this up conversation. And maybe, Martin, you could talk about some of the things we have to go through to get to that.
Yes. I'm trying to think where to start. So you mentioned the scale-out network. So the scale-out network is a multi-tier, typically 2-tier infrastructure to allow these thousands to tens of thousands of GPUs to all talk collectively across 1 single infrastructure. For that, we've got our portfolio of X-Series and R-Series products today that address that well, we put them in the 2-tier networks and they're good to go. Those products are purpose-built for AI but those are also the same products that customers can use on their front end networks for building the client connected network.
We think about this next generation of scale up. It's a vertically integrated, tightly integrated network architecture. So effectively, it's a new set of products that are built with the customers to physically integrate into their physical infrastructure. So it's going to take 2 or 3 key differentiators there. Next generation silicon, next-generation products, and then those customers coming to us and working with us on the requirements, the definition, the delivery and then also the release of those products. So that's why it's different to the scale-out but we're perfectly positioned for that in that we have assessed the technology. We have the best engineers in the industry, I would claim, right? We've proven what we can do with these customers. And so they are coming to us and asking us to partner with them on developing these next-generation solutions to scale up.
And I think you've brought up a good point with me in the past, like it's important to understand like excluding the leading vendor of GPUs, everything else is attached Ethernet, right, scale up across the entire fabric architecture, right? So Helios from AMD might be a very well positioned rack scale solution for a scale-up opportunity or pick your other piece looking out there?
Yes. So at this point in time, if you're doing a scale-up network, you're probably using an NVL generation technology. We've seen at the OSC conference last month, the introduction of the ESUN technology. That's an evolution of the scale of Ethernet. So ESUN is Ethernet scale of network than scale up Ethernet, move the letters around get another terminology. But ESUN is a multi-vendor with customer participation in building a specification that everyone can work to. So you do get this choice of products, choice of vendors so that when you're moving into the late '26, '27 generation, you have vendor diversity, supply chain diversity and derisking of these technologies. So that's where we're heavily engaged.
We were one of the leading partners of that ESUN initiative. So tightly engaged with the technology and the customers to make sure we bring it to market. It's not single vendor technology.
That kind of maybe ties or segues a little bit to the blue box narrative, blue box white box. I mean that's -- white box has always been a persistent topic of discussion competitively maybe help us, one, what have you seen from a competitive dynamic vis-a-vis white boxes? And what is Arista's blue box strategy? And I'm guessing it does tie back to maybe scale up over time. But you've been participating -- just walk us through kind of white box, blue box dynamics for the company?
Yes. We'll tag team this. There's probably a lot of conversation here. So again, we hold the position that nothing has changed from a white box dynamic and from the perspective, there are places white box can absolutely grow. The whole market is growing. And so there's room for everyone to grow. And they grow in some of the customers we're not even in. You take -- some of them are with Amazon and Alphabet, and they've been in that white box even before Arista started. So there's going to be growth there, and we recognize that.
In our hyperscaler conversations where white box is usually where you have the ability to have the engineers team to support Sonic or FBOSS on it. So those are at the larger customers. So white box, I think apples and oranges compared to Blue Box and Arista branded. One example I'll give you where Blue Box is great and where we use it today before I pass it over to Martin is a lot of our largest customers, they need to and they should have dual source vendor strategies, right? You never want to place any 1 large company on 1 vendor. But where Blue Box can be very useful as a dual source strategy where it's Arista hardware underneath and some of the Arista hardware is running EOS and some of it's running Sonic or FBOSS, and that allows the dual-source strategy, but it has Arista hardware underneath.
And so that gives them the flexibility to say they have dual source, which is great. And that's one example of a use case that's existing and a great application. Blue box generally is in our guide. Sometimes we get a question, what's the margin impact from blue box? For us, it's in our guide, it's in our actuals, and so nothing is really changing there from a material perspective. And then, Martin, maybe you want to talk about some of the other blue box.
Yes. So Arista blue box isn't really new. It's something we're talking about now, whereas it's something we've been delivering with some of these large customers for multiple generation technology. They came to us and asked us to partner more closely on developing a product, a box for them. And they wanted their own technology inside, but they also wanted the benefit of all the Arista design, manufacturing, supply chain diagnostics, the 1-800 number or call for support. So when we take all that packaging together from the fundamentals of an engineer designing something, mechanical engineering, thermal, packaging, everything that goes into making the Arista product today is what they want to tap into.
They didn't want to get an off-the-shelf white box they wanted an Arista product, but with their own code running on top of it for the software stack. So it's something we've been doing for a while. There's many examples out there. We partnered with a couple of these large customers. And so now we're talking about it more broadly as a way to help the investor community and customers generally understand what it is that differentiates Arista from an off-the-shelf product. So design, manufacturing, supply chain continuity, so multi-sourcing, the diagnostic software that we run even on the design level before we run it on the manufacturing line for the test, the release, the firmware that we're running on some of the FPGAs that are inside these systems is all Arista. It's that Arista value. That blue is the Arista blue capability.
So it's very it's very difficult to say where does the line start and stop. So we've put some documents out there to kind of show where these layers are. You're not just taking off-the-shelf Broadcom silicon, putting on a standard reference design and shipping it. There's a lot of value. And we've seen examples where an Arista product compared to a standard one, we have lower power, we have better thermals, we have higher reliability. These are tangible benefits to the customer taking an Arista product even if they don't run Arista's operating system, EOS. Now of course, we prefer that they do that.
And then the other benefit is if they take this blue box and they run their own network operating system, they can, at any point, refresh it to run EOS. So it gives them some investment protection in terms of that technology. They're deploying it in one role. They want to redeploy in a different role, they can start to run EOS on it. And I think that's something that these are all the value propositions of blue box as against a standard white box.
Yes. That was very thorough. That's great. Sticking on the competitive dynamics. AI, you've got the largest GPU vendor wanting to participate, obviously, deeply in the networking stack, a full stack solution, walled garden approach. You've got, obviously, your biggest competitor in the networking side that talked about AI. How would you characterize the competitive landscape in these AI fabrics, be it scale out, scale across?
I'll start. So on the front-end network, the front-end network is de facto Ethernet. Nobody would think about putting an InfiniBand technology into a front-end network. It's a part of the network that over the last 10 years or so, we've incrementally taken market share away from who was the #1 vendor in the data center. So we've done that to the point we've now surpassed them in market share for the front-end network.
This back-end network is very much a net new opportunity for all of us. It's a TAM that's expanding rapidly. So within that, you're going to get some market share dynamics. We saw 2 years ago the question about InfiniBand versus Ethernet. I think that question has largely gone away, not to say that InfiniBand will never go to 0. But largely speaking, people have decided that Ethernet is the right technology for the back-end network. We're now having a new debate about scale up. We'll leave that to one side for now. But on that back-end network, you've now got a level playing field for Ethernet technologies. Just described how we were successful at the front end of the network. There's no reason to think we can't be successful at the back-end network.
And given the level playing field, you take best-of-breed, you take the software quality, the features, the ability for our engineering team to partner with our customers and make sure we're building the right products at the right time. and then that track record. So you kind of take all that together, and that's -- it's a broad answer rather than saying, well, this feature is better than that feature, and we have a product and they've got a radix and we've got a radix. Those are all the detailed answers, but I like our chances on a level playing field. And our networking technology, our networking products are best-in-class.
Yes. That's perfect. Before I go to model stuff, I'm going to ask this other follow-up to Martin. There's been some debate out there about one of your M&Ms, your largest cloud titans, has gone from a disaggregated scheduled fabric architecture and talked about a non-scheduled fabric architecture. Obviously, they've done stuff with their mini pack solutions and stuff like that. How does Arista play in a nonscheduled? Maybe walk us through because I think you guys have obviously switch portfolio that addresses nonscheduled fabrics. What do you think about that?
As I said before, we have a portfolio. We've got the X-Series and the R-Series. Both of them are optimized for these large-scale AI deployments. At any point in time, any customer can choose from that portfolio. We don't force them down any path. We've seen in previous generations, these large customers, you can give the names out, have deployed a mixture of the X-Series and the R-Series at multiple tiers. For the latest generation, they chose to go with the DSF, which is taking the R-Series products and basically spreading it out, so disaggregated distributed scheduled fabric.
The next generation, for whatever their technical reasons are, I mean we talked about it at OCP, they're going to deploy NSF. That's possibly a timing as well as achieving some scale capabilities. The distributed scheduled fabric, I think they published results that show it's performed extremely well. And say, by offering a choice, we can win or we can win. And it's not a -- there's no losing in here.
Yes. That's perfect. Now sticking to maybe some of the model stuff. Analyst Day, I think it was September 11, very thorough. I think one of the things that I took away was that you set a guidance, which you mentioned earlier, was quite strong relative to the way you've set in the past, 20% growth. If I do the numbers, right, the $2.75 billion of AI, the $1.25 billion of campus, it really implies that the rest, the non-AI non-campus business doesn't grow. Why?
Yes. So I think that we are very intentional with some of our goals to make sure that communities like yourselves understand what we have line of sight to and what our North Stars are. So we set a North Star for the AI growth, the $2.75 billion in revenue and the campus $1.25 billion, basically 60% plus growth on both of those targets. We laid those out for the company because we want to be very clear where we're going from a strategic perspective. We also, from a style, never assume 100% of everything is going to work in our guidance. And so it doesn't mean we don't want or anticipate the rest to grow. We'll see as we get into next year with 2 quarters of visibility, other things that can add to that number, but we will never assume 100%, give ourselves some optionality. If we hit both of those targets and things continue to grow, we'll see what -- how next year progresses.
Yes. That's perfect. And the reference to 2 quarters of visibility, that's an enterprise.
Yes, that's everything basically underneath the hyperscalers.
I got you. Okay. The other question that's come up on the model has been this quarter, I might have gotten the math a little bit wrong, but like the gross margin on the product line takes a little bit of a step down. So immediately, when people see that, they're like what's going on, why? I think the short answer is mix, but maybe I'll let you address that.
Well, the majority of the time mix is what drives -- customer mix is what drives our gross margin conversation. Obviously, the hyperscalers have a different volume purchasing power than the enterprise and everything in between is a mix of those. So on a high mix cloud AI titan quarter, you're going to see a little bit lower gross margin and a higher enterprise mix a little bit higher generally. The other thing, as we tried to articulate at Analyst Day, the other thing that moves through there is our E&O activities.
The Arista model, we have long lead times in our supply chain. So we lean in almost a year in advance. And we have educated procurements, but it's not 100% forecast driven with 2 quarters of visibility. There will be times when we don't get the mix right, and we do everything we can to mitigate the E&O, but that's the other factor that can come in. And this year, you saw not a lot of E&O. And so our gross margin has been elevated at that 64% to 65% range, some of the quarters. So those are the dynamics, very open and transparent about it. But very excited even to kind of report those growth rates, the margin rates and the operating margin rates this year and next year.
Yes. The campus opportunity, you've brought in -- the company hired Todd Nightingale to really -- it sounds like drive the campus, right, that I think it's $700 million to $800 million this year, growing to $1.25 billion. Can you -- I think you're only 5% market share of the campus market. What's changing there? What gives Arista the opportunity to win? What -- how do we think about maybe beyond $1.25 billion because it is a large market, $18 billion, $20 billion in the campus market.
No, absolutely. We're very excited. I think the one thing that I've seen, and I'm very proud of Arista is once we set an intention, we very much try to execute and overachieve on that. You've seen it with the hyperscalers and the data centers specifically now going into campus. So what has allowed us to kind of come out with this declarative state? We've not finalized but very well finalized the campus portfolio. The VeloCloud acquisition was a great part of that SD-WAN kind of conversation. So very happy with the portfolio. We think it's ready now to get more than 5% of that market share.
As well as the fact that we have someone like Todd coming in who can spend more dedicated time, given his background as to how we're going to approach this market through land and expand and new logo acquisition. So I love time between Todd and I and Martin and the team to talk about what are we going to do with that? And so where do we see this kind of validation?
We are winning campus-first deals now that are material, especially for campus market. So we're very excited. And those could be without the data center, so we can win a new logo acquisition in campus and then land and expand over to the data center if we're not already in that position. Super excited about that. 5%, we do see that $20 billion kind of market TAM perspective. So very excited, and Todd is very much focused as well as he owns the supply chain of Arista, so he can work on making sure we have the right products and lead times to make sure we win those refreshes as they come due.
Yes. So first part of it is portfolio. So throughout this year, we've incrementally released new technologies, new solutions with identity. Pulling in the VeloCloud has given us more of a complete solution. And then the second factor is time, right? A lot of these large campus opportunities come around once every 5 years, once every 7 years. So it's not for want of trying, but if the customer is not in the buying phase, then there's no opportunity. So for the very largest customers, as they come up for a technology refresh, it gives us an opportunity to engage in an RFI and RFP or get into a lab or a qualification exercise and then hopefully be successful.
But if the customer is not in that phase, you sit on the sidelines and wait. So I think we're identifying that within the campus and the enterprise more broadly, the next 2 years, there's a lot of refreshes coming up for renewal. And as Chantelle said, we are very encouraged by the customers we're winning, winning first as a campus opportunity, and that gives us a chance to go and talk about other areas of their infrastructure.
And remind me again, I just forget, how many enterprise customers does -- I think it's like a rounded number, 10,000...
Well, we said 10,000 customers for Arista, 10,000 plus.
Enterprise customers.
Well, we said customers, but you can.
Yes, small list of hyperscalers. But I guess the metric that would be interesting would be is like how many of the -- to your point, if you have an enterprise data center footprint, it clearly gives you an opportunity to go into the campus opportunity...
That's right. Land and expand our new logo. This is what Todd and we're working on this year, next year planning, et cetera, how do we get to that $1.2 billion, which methodologies.
Okay. And VeloCloud is in that $1.25 billion.
Yes, it will be.
Yes. Okay. In the few minutes I've got left, I think I have to ask you about component constraints. I know we touched on it a little bit earlier, but how are you guys mitigating? Is there -- is it DDR4 that you're seeing some constraints on? Is it -- and I guess you've got a lot of purchase commitments. I think your inventory plus purchase commitments were like $7 billion. So not concerned about supply. How are you mitigating the price inflation risk? Do you see that at all in your gross margins?
So we haven't seen a material amount, and I give kudos to Todd, Mike Kappus and his team for being very proactive multisource strategy. So we have been mitigating where there's price inflation either through our own activities or through the actual negotiation with our vendors. So not a lot of materiality there, Aaron, to your question. I think from the perspective of the supply chain constraints, I think that was part of what you're asking. We don't see any restraints constraints for '25 and '26. We're trying to get ahead of anything that could potentially become a topic. But Martin, if there's anything memory fab that you wanted to cover?
No, I think there's a recognition in the last few weeks since we put our earnings out that there is a worldwide tightness on some components, right? We're just one company within that. We can't be immune to it, but I don't know that we're impacted. So visibility and then taking the right corrective actions, and that is putting in place volumes, multi-sourcing and then time frames, like we need this volume over this time. Are you able to support us? So commitments is how we do that.
Yes. And I would say just going back to your starting point, Aaron, the purchase commitment increase that you saw, which was sizable, is more related to demand than it is to buying into component shortage situation, just to be clear.
I think the number is $4.8 billion, I think, was the purchase commitment number, if I'm right?
A little bit higher than...
I'm sorry. $7 billion in total, right. I guess that -- the question I was trying to get to is like how do you think about managing -- if it's demand, I'm going to ask the backwards question, how do you manage -- how do you think about inventory turns, right? And thinking about from that perspective?
Yes. So generally, at least since I've been in the role January 2024, inventory turns have gone between 1.1 and 1.3. So we've been fairly steady. And I'm actually working with Todd to see if we can increase our turns. That's the goal. However, we are working through quite a frothy period. So let's say it stays in that range. The purchase commitments are meant to flush out in the time frame that doesn't really impact that inventory turn calculation over time.
Okay. In the minute we've got left, I'm just going to -- I'm going to put an open-ended question out there. When you're speaking, Chantelle, with investors, or Martin, what do you feel like are the 2 or 3 things that are just not fully appreciated in the Arista story?
Well, I think there's -- obviously, we work with very smart people such as yourselves in the room. I think it's just a -- it's a shift in the sense of looking at deferred and P&L growth, knowing that, that deferred is revenue over a time frame. So I think that's important, especially given that this quarter is the first quarter that product was the majority of deferred. It's the first time I've said that in the prepared remarks. Usually, it's been services, so now product. So I think one is the kind of the revenue outlook, just looking at the guide, P&L and deferred.
I think the second one is just recognizing the way that Martin very well articulated what blue box is and the white box and Arista branded and blue box are a little bit apples and oranges. And I think the third one is there are some things we can't control, such as announcements by things in the industry where the whole industry is impacted. We will keep producing great product. We will keep our head down and work close with our customers. And we'll just continue to execute and show you versus all of these kind of interwoven things with investments and commitments between customers and vendors. That's not the Arista style.
Yes. Perfect. With that, I think we're right on time. Thank you so much for joining us.
Thank you. Thanks for your time.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Wells Fargo's 9th Annual TMT Summit
Arista Networks, Inc. — Wells Fargo's 9th Annual TMT Summit
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Takeaway: Arista positioniert sich als Kernlieferant für Künstliche Intelligenz (KI)-Rechenzentren mit klarer Wachstums-Agenda: aggressive AI- und Campus-Ziele (AI $2,75 Mrd für 2026; Campus $1,25 Mrd) und ein 20%-Wachstums-Target, das beim Analyst Day kommuniziert wurde.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Deferred & Timing: Deferred Revenue erklärt Management-Fokus; Produkt-Deferred steigt (letztes Quartal $625M; vorher $687M) und Projekte verschieben sich typischerweise in ein 18–24‑Monate‑Fenster.
- Produktportfolio: X‑Series und R‑Series decken Scale‑out/Scale‑across; Arista arbeitet mit Kunden an Scale‑up‑Designs und neuer Silicon-/Systemarchitektur.
- Blue vs White Box: „Blue box“ = Arista‑Hardware mit Kunden‑SOFTWARE; bietet Dual‑sourcing, bessere Thermik/Zuverlässigkeit und spätere Migration auf EOS (Extensible Operating System).
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Guides & Zahlen: Management betont, dass AI‑Ziel ($1,5B → $2,75B) über ein breites Kundenset geht (Top‑4 plus 15–20 weitere Vordenker) und dass Campus‑Ziel VeloCloud einschließt.
- Supply View: Keine firmenspezifischen Engpässe für FY25/FY26 erwartet; Purchase‑Commitments und Multi‑Sourcing (Gesamt Commitments ~ $7 Mrd) sollen Risiken dämpfen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Supply Chain: Kritisch gefragt zu Speicher/Fab‑Engpässen; Management sieht Industrie‑weit Tightness, aber keine Arista‑konkreten Beschränkungen dank Vorplanung und Verpflichtungen.
- Revenue‑Timing: Analysten hakt nach, wie Deferred in Revenue‑Modelle fließt; Management empfiehlt 18–24 Monate als relevantem Horizont, nicht 6–12 Monate.
- Wettbewerb & Architektur: Diskussion um InfiniBand vs Ethernet, Scale‑up vs Scale‑out und die Rolle von OEM/White‑Box; Arista hebt Software, Engineering‑Partnerships und Track‑Record als Differenzierer hervor.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Das Management liefert kein neues Earnings‑Guidance, aber konkretisiert Strategie: starkes Engagement im KI‑TAM, Ausbau der Campus‑Position und operative Maßnahmen gegen Lieferrisiken. Aktieinhaber sollten Timing‑Risiken aus verlängerten Deferred‑Zyklen und komponentenbedingten Branchenengpässen beachten, sehen aber klare Wachstumshebel.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to the Third Quarter 2025 Arista Networks Financial Results Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and will be available for replay from the Investor Relations section on the Arista website following this call.
Mr. Rudolph Araujo, Arista's Head of Investor Advocacy. You may begin.
Thank you, Christa. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on today's call are Jayshree Ullal, Arista Networks' Chairperson and Chief Executive Officer; and Chantelle Breithaupt, Chief Financial Officer. This afternoon, Arista Networks issued a press release announcing the results for the fiscal third quarter ending September 30, 2025. If you want a copy of the release, you can access it online on our website.
During the course of this conference call, Arista Networks management will make forward-looking statements, including those relating to our financial outlook for the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year longer-term business model and financial outlook for 2026 and beyond, our total addressable market and strategy for addressing these market opportunities including AI, customer demand trends, tariffs and trade restrictions, supply chain constraints, component costs, manufacturing output, inventory management and inflationary pressures on our business, lead times, product innovation, working capital optimization and the benefits of acquisitions which are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K and which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements.
These forward-looking statements apply as of today and you should not rely on them as representing our views in the future. We undertake no obligation to update these statements after this call. This analysis of our Q3 results and our guidance for Q4 2025 is based on non-GAAP and excludes all noncash stock-based compensation impacts, certain acquisition required charges and other nonrecurring items. A full reconciliation of our selected GAAP to non-GAAP results is provided in our earnings release.
With that, I will turn the call over to Jayshree.
Thank you, everyone, for joining us this afternoon on our third quarter 2025 earnings call. Arista continues to drive its 19th consecutive record quarter of growth in this AI era. We achieved almost $2.31 billion this quarter with software and services attributing approximately 18.7% of revenue. Our non-GAAP gross margin of 65.2% was influenced by favorable mix and inventory benefits. Americas was strong at almost 80% and international at approximately 20%.
On September 11 at our Analyst Day, we showcased both networking for AI and AI for network working with our continued momentum across our data-driven network platforms. Unlike many others, our either length portfolio highlights our accelerated networking approach, bringing a single point of network control for zero-touch automation, trusted security traffic engineering and telemetry to dramatically improve compute and GPU utilization. Superior AI networks from Arista improves the performance of AI accelerators.
Of course, we interoperate with NVIDIA, the worldwide market leader in GPUs, but we also recognize our responsibility to create a broad and open ecosystem, including AMD, Anthropic, ARMM, Broadcom, Open AI, Pure Storage and [ VAST Data ] to name a few, and build that modern AI stack of the 21st century. This stack includes the trial of compute memory storage and a solid network foundation to run training and inference models.
Our stated goal of $1.5 billion AI aggregate for 2025, comprising of both back end and front end is well underway. We are now committed to $2.75 billion out of our new target of $10.65 billion in revenue, representing 20% revenue growth in 2026. We are experiencing momentum across cloud and AI titans, neo cloud providers and the campus enterprise. The demand and scale of AI build-outs is clearly unprecedented, as we look to move data faster across multiplanar networks.
People and leadership are key to our success. And to that end, we announced Todd Nightingale as our President and Chief Operating Officer last quarter. This time, we want to celebrate the promotion of Ken Duda, our President and Chief Technology Officer, not only of engineering, but our top AI and cloud segment of customers as well. Ken, as many of you know, has been a champion of architecture, innovation and culture since founding Arista over 20 years ago.
Ken, would you like to say a few words?
Thanks, Jayshree. I would like to 1 of the best things about working at Arista is getting to build some of the most ambitious networks ever built, ultra low latency trading networks, global scale, our networks having most recently multi-benefit AI networks. Our success in AI has many sources, the sheer power and performance of our hardware platforms, our innovations in fabric architecture, our AI-focused telemetry and provisioning automation are reputation for the highest quality software, found our leadership in the Ultra Ethernet Consortium the UVC and our work in Ethernet scale of networking or E.SUN, and most importantly, the way we partner with the world's largest AI companies, partnership has been key to our success over and over at Arista and the AI revolution is no exception.
In addition to being a lot of fun, these partnerships benefit our company, both through the sheer revenue opportunity but also in providing us with the opportunity to learn and innovate at the edge of what's possible. We can then apply what we've learned to bring solutions to the broader netting market, helping a much larger and more diverse customer base, build the most advanced and reliable infrastructure in the industry. For example, our Etherlink distributed switch to rock, power some of the largest AI fabrics in the world. It's also an excellent underway for data centers of whole sorts, providing a full line rate fabric with no hotspots at petabyte scale for all workloads, including AI.
Etherlink speeds are going from 800 gigabits today to 1.6 terabits in the near future while leveraging our EOS operating system and our NDI diagnostics infrastructure for top hardware and software reliability. Arista AVA or Autonomous Virtual Assist AI to help our customers design, build and operate their networks. AVA draws on both our internal knowledge base and also on the customers' data stored in NetDL, Arista's network data lake. Plus AVA has agentic capabilities to help troubleshoot proactively.
Other recent innovations include Swab, a switch aggregation technology that provides the features of campus stacking along with fault containment and in-service software upgrades for maximum uptime. By running a common EOS and common net DI platform across so many use cases, we are able to maintain alignment between our different market segments, leveraging central engineering investments efficiently as we pursue cloud, enterprise and AI markets simultaneously. I am so grateful for the opportunity to lead the Arista engineering and cloud teams in an era with so many exciting opportunities.
Thank you, Ken, and congratulations on a fantastic 21-year career, a very well-deserved promotion at Arista. You have always built the always-on resilient [ leaf-spine ] architecture, both now for networking for AI workloads, and AVA to bring AI to networking.
At Oracle AI world, Ken was invited to formally announce our operation with Oracle Exelon. This builds upon a decade of partnership with Oracle starting with our Exadata migration from InfiniBand to Ethernet for AI networks to Rocky RDMA over converged Ethernet and now multiplanar networking across cloud AI for on-time job completion and gigawatt scale AI data centers.
As part of our Leadership 2.0, we have built and focused a cloud and AI mission and organization, now led by industry veteran, Tyson Lamoreaux, reporting to Ken and Hugh. I am so delighted to formally welcome Tyson to Arista. Tyson, if you guys know him well, built the first cloud network for Amazon AWS in the 2000 era and pioneered the first AI network for a stealth sovereign AI company the last couple of years.
Tyson, you had a busy few weeks here. Tell us more.
Thank you, Jayshree, and thanks for the question. It's really incredible to join the team at a time where it is building so much momentum. Spending time with customers has been a top priority for me since coming on board and I've been so impressed with how strong these partnerships are, both with our long-standing titans and with our emerging customers. We're deeply engaged with them on next-gen architectures for their cloud networks, front end, back end, scale up, scale out and scale across I mean, really everywhere. It's translating to a ton of wins, and I got to say, it's a lot more than I anticipated before I got here.
I really love our continuing commitment to open standard innovation like Eson and UEC. And of course, the practical here now and always problems that we're addressing by building the hardware systems, software everything that delivers exceptional power efficiency, reliability, density, visibility and manageability for our customers. I think my background as a builder and operator are really well suited to helping the team anticipate customer needs and delivering the right products for them. I guess the last thing I'd highlight is the culture. I mean, it's just tremendous. The customer focus, commitment to quality, innovation and operational excellence are a top notch here and have made me feel right at home.
Thanks, Jayshree. Back to you.
Thank you, Tyson, and welcome home. With Tyson's credentials and a track record, Arista is really poised to address multiple facets of the cloud and AI innovation at a system-wide level converging silicon hardware, software, cables, optics and RACs as an overall platform. At the optical Compute Conference, OCP, Arista unveiled its first Ethernet for scale-up network, so E.SUN specification, along with important 12 industry experts. While we began with 4 co-founders, we are now supporting and increasing to more people so that we can build the right interoperable scale-up standard.
While there's always right noise, Arista also continues to clarify our role in white box and how we will continue to coexist like we always have the past decade or more. The concept is clear. It's all about good, better and where in some simple use cases, a commodity white box is good enough. Yet in other cases, customers seek the value of better Arista blue boxes with state-of-the-art hardware with built-in for Signal Integrity, physical, passive, active component and troubleshooting management. The best is, of course, the Arista-branded U.S. platforms for the ultimate superiority.
We find ourselves amid an undeniable and explosive AI megatrend. As AI models and tokens grow in size and complexity, Arista's driving network scale of AI XPUs, handling the power and performance Basically, the tokens must translate to terawatts, teraflops and terabits. We are experiencing a golden era networking with an increasing TAM now of over $100 billion in forthcoming years. Our centers of data strategy, ranging from client to branch to campus to data and now cloud and AI centers a very consistent mission for the company. We will continue to invest in our customers, our leaders our partners and certainly, most of all, our innovative technology.
And with that, Chantelle, I'd like to hand it to you as our CFO for financial specifics.
Thank you, Jayshree. It is great to see the broadening of the AI ecosystem, and I am excited for Arista to be an innovative unit.
Turning now to Q3 performance. Total revenues were $2.3 billion, up 27.5% year-over-year, above our guidance of $2.5 billion. This was supported by strong growth across all of our product sectors. International revenues for the quarter came in at $468.3 million or 20.2% of total revenue, down from 21.8% in the prior quarter. The overall gross margin in Q3 was 65.2%, and above our guidance of 64%, down from 65.6% last quarter and up from 64.6% in the prior year quarter. The year-over-year gross margin improvement was primarily driven by strength in the enterprise segment.
Operating expenses for the quarter were $33.3 million or 16.6% of revenue, up from last quarter at $370.6 million. R&D spending came in at $251.4 million or 10.9% of revenue up from $243.3 million in the last quarter. Sales and marketing expense was $109.5 million or 4.7% of revenue compared to $105.3 million last quarter. Both quarter-over-quarter dollar increases were driven by additional headcount, inclusive of the VeloCloud acquisition.
Our G&A costs came in at $22.4 million or 1% of revenue, up from last quarter at $22 million. Our operating income for the quarter was $1.12 billion, landing at 48.6% of revenue. Other income and events for the quarter was a favorable $98.9 million, and our effective tax rate was 21.2%. This resulted in net income for the quarter of $962.3 million or 41.7% of revenue. Our diluted share number was 1.277 billion shares resulting in a diluted earnings per share number for the quarter of $0.75, up 25% from the prior year.
Now on to the balance sheet. Cash, cash equivalents and investments ended the quarter at $10.1 billion. Of the $1.5 billion repurchase program approved in May 2025, $1.4 billion remains available for repurchase in future quarters. The actual timing and amount of future repurchases will be dependent on market and business conditions, stock price and other factors.
Now let's move next to operating cash performance for the third quarter. We generated approximately $1.3 billion of cash from operations in the period, reflecting a strong business model performance. DSOs came in at 59 days, down from 67 days in Q2, driven by billing linearity Inventory turns were 1.4x, flat to last quarter. Inventory increased to $2.2 billion in the quarter, up from $2.1 billion in the prior period. Most of this increase is due to higher evaluation inventory, indicating uptake of our new products and new use cases.
Our purchase commitments and inventory at the end of the quarter totaled $7 billion, up from $5.7 billion at the end of Q2. We will continue to have some variability in future quarters as a reflection of the combination of demand for our new plots and the lead times from our key suppliers. Our total deferred revenue balance was $4.7 billion, up from $4.1 billion in Q2. As of Q3, the majority of the deferred revenue balance is product related. Our product deferred revenue increased approximately $625 million versus last quarter. We remain in a period of ramping our new products, winning new customers and expanding new use cases, including AI. These trends have resulted in increased customer-specific acceptance clauses and an increase in the volatility of our product deferred revenue balances.
As mentioned in prior quarters, the deferred balance can move significantly on a quarterly basis, independent of underlying business drivers. Accounts payable days was 55 days, down from 65 days in Q2, reflecting the timing of inventory receipts and payments. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $30.1 million. In October 2024, we began our initial construction work to build expanded facilities in Santa Clara and we expect to incur approximately $100 million in CapEx during fiscal year 2025 this project.
Q3 delivered a strong performance, underscoring our strategic progress. This continues to give us confidence for the remainder of FY '25 and through FY '26. Let's first start with our outlook for Q4. Revenue of $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion with continued growth expected across our cloud, AI enterprise and providers markets; gross margin in the range of 62% to 63%, inclusive of possible known tariff scenarios. Operating margin of approximately 47% to 48%. Our effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 21.5% with approximately 1.281 billion diluted shares.
Incorporating this Q4 outlook, our guidance for FY '25 is as follows: full year revenue growth of approximately 26% to 27% or $8.87 billion at the midpoint. We are on track to deliver between $750 million and $800 million for our campus segment and our AI center target of at least $1.5 billion. For gross margin, the outlook is approximately 64%, inclusive of possible known tariff scenarios. We anticipate operating margin of roughly 48%, demonstrating Arista's strong operational execution and scalable business model.
Our outlook for FY '26 presented at our September Analyst Day remains relatively unchanged. Full year revenue growth of approximately 20%, now at a higher dollar amount of $10.65 billion, inclusive of both a campus target of $1.25 billion and an AI center target of $2.75 billion. For gross margin, our range is expected of approximately 62% to 64%, driven by customer mix and for operating margin and outlook of approximately 43% to 45%, allowing for investments in relation to achieving the strategic goals of Arista.
In closing, the momentum continues. The breadth and depth of our customer interactions have never been stronger or more exciting. In true Arista style, we remain pragmatic yet are aware of the potential over the next few years. I wish to extend a warm welcome to Tyson. We are thrilled that you have joined our team, and congratulations to Todd on the well-deserved promotion.
I will now turn the call back to Rudy for Q&A.
Thank you, Chantelle. We will now move into the Q&A portion of the Arista earnings call. To allow for greater participation, I'd like to request that everyone please limit themselves to a single fashion. Thank you for your understanding. Christa, please take it away. .
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America.
2. Question Answer
I want to ask about the sequential or the guidance, and it's a more fundamental question, but I'll back it up with numbers. If you look at last year, the growth was very consistent kind of the last 3 quarters of the year, the sequential growth rate is between 6.5%, 7.5%. When you look at this year, you started with 10% growth in and it goes to 5% and now only 1.6%. So there is a deceleration. And the question is, what is the underlying what are the underlying drivers for the deceleration? What do we need to take for it for next year? What does it mean? And should we be concerned about the growth going forward?
Thanks, Tal. First of all, to answer your last line, there is no concern on our demand. I think the shipments and the revenue follows based on our supplies. So if we're able to make the shipments, then the than the revenue as you saw in Q2, when it due passed any of our guidance, right? However, there are times we can't ship everything despite the demand. And so you're accordingly seeing that. I wouldn't read too much into the quarterly variances.
But I would say we feel we have never felt more strongly about the demand aspect of this. reflected in the continued commitment to 20% growth, even though the number keeps increasing from 8.75% to now 8.87. So no change in demand, some variation in shipments. .
Your next question comes from the line of Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.
I'll stick to kind of the model as well. I'm curious when I look at the gross margin guidance for this quarter, I think it was 62% to 63%. I guess if we were to assume that your services gross margin stays consistent, at 81%, 82%. It would seem to imply that product gross margin falls below 60%. So I guess the question is, can you unpack the gross margin drivers in this quarter in terms of the guidance? How much is tariff weighted? Or is there other dynamics to consider? And does that change kind of the expectation as we look forward?
Okay. Sure, Aaron. First of all, I think you're overestimating our services and software margins, but be that as it may. We do have a mix of product margin where it's significantly below 60% with our cloud and AI titans driving the volume and higher obviously, for the enterprise customers. the average of which, together with services is yielding numbers. So when the mix tilts heavily towards the cloud and AI, you can expect some pressure on our gross margins.
But overall, I think we managed it very well the manufacturing team, now led by Todd does a fantastic job here. So again, the discipline and mix plays well together, but I don't think it's any change from prior years where when we have a heavy mix of AI and cloud, we feel it in our gross margin.
Yes. The only thing I would add to that is I wouldn't assume to the last part of your question that it insinuates or offers a new model going into next year. This is a normal part of our mix conversation and well within the guide that you've seen us perform at these levels before.
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs.
Thank you for the question. I was wondering if you could just talk about Arista's positioning as we move into more full rack solutions. Is this going to be more of a partnership model? How do you think about addressing this, I say, growing convergence between compute and networking?
Michael, that's a very good question. First of all, as you heard in Analyst Day, [ Andy Betestein ] is personally driving along with the hardware team a significant number of these racks. I think at any given time, we have 5 to 7 projects with different accelerator options Obviously, NVIDIA is the gold standard today, but we can see 4 or 5 accelerators emerging in the next couple of years. Arista is being sought to bring all aspects, the cabling, the co-packaging, the power, the cooling as well as the connection to different XPU cartridges, if you may, as the network platform of choice in many -- so we are involved in a lot of early designs.
I think a lot of these lines will materialize as the standards, Ethernet are getting stronger and stronger. We now have a UEC spec, you heard me talk about the scale-up Ethernet stacks, ESUN, where we can bring different work streams onto the same ethernet heaters, transport heaters, datalink layer, et cetera. I think a lot of this will be underway in 2026 and really emerged in 2027 as scale up Ethernet becomes a more important part of that.
In terms of how we will gain more recognition of revenue, some of this will be not the classic OEM model. They may be more the Blue Box JDM model. where we work with them on IP and have reference designs and offer them capabilities well beyond the network but many of them will also entail selling the network as is in these racks.
Your next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.
Jayshree, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned large language model providers like OpenAI and topic, and they have announced partnerships with your cloud tighten. Can you share with us who is driving the decision-making on networking hardware on these announcements? And just your commentary on your share being stable within the circle of your Titan?
Yes. So to answer your last question, first, I think our share is strong. We always, as you know, coexist with 2 other types of competitors. One is the bundling strategy with NVIDIA and the other is the white box. So we have not seen any significant changes in share up or down at the moment, it's stable. Having said that, it's also a massive market. And we think rising tide rises all boats and this boat is feeling pretty good.
Now specific to who makes the decision, it's really a combination. We intimately work with the software and LLM players because they certainly guide the design but we also work with the cloud titans, and it's a shared responsibility between both of them and where the responsibility for procuring the large data centers and the power and the location and the cooling is clearly done by our cloud Titans, but the specifications are exactly what's required on the scale up, scale out network is done by the partners like OpenAI and Anthropic. So it's really a joint decision.
Your next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.
Jayshree, maybe just going back to your earlier response to another query, you mentioned some variability in shipments at a customer level, maybe driving some of the lumpiness quarter-to-quarter. Just curious if you had talked about previously the Tier 1 customers you're engaged with progressing to their cluster sizes, 100,000 and more. Like how -- has there been any change relative to those plants that are driving the duration here in terms of the fourth quarter guide? Or what is sort of behind the variability that you're seeing in terms of shipment? Is it supply driven at all? Any color on that front?
Yes. Yes. Samik, I would say it's largely supply driven. As you know, all 4 are doing well on the 100,000 mark. 3 have already crossed it. The fourth one, I don't know if they'll cross it by end of the year or next year, but they're getting there. So we're feeling pretty good on our large GPU deployments. At the same time, the variability I was stating is demand is greater than our ability to ship. Lead times on many of our components, including standard memory and chips and merchant silicon and everything, nothing like 2022, but they have very long lead times ranging from 38 to 52 weeks. So we are coping with that. And you can see Chantelle is leaning in and making greater and greater purchase commitments, we wouldn't do that without demand.
Your next question comes from the line of Amit Daryanani with Evercore.
I guess my question, I think folks are kind of trying to ask around this a bit is the growth rates you've had in the last 3, 4 quarters of 5%, 5%, call it, you sort of implying that will decelerate, as, not just in December, but also in '26, I think at this point, right, high 20% growth goes to low 20%. Maybe just talk about what is driving that kind of deceleration? Because certainly, if you look at things like your purchase commitment and your deferred product growth, it would almost imply things can accelerate not decelerate in the out quarter. So just what's driving the deceleration in the out quarters would be helpful to understand.
Okay, Amit, but I don't like the word deceleration. We're talking about big, big numbers here, guys. And I'm committing to double-digit 20% and above percentage, so call it deceleration, call it, variability across quarters, and demand is great. I just don't know whether it will land in '26 or '27.
Yes. The only other thing I'm going to add to this just generally is a topic is that when you think about that the large AI use cases, our acceptance clauses, it really comes down to that coming together and the timing of that. That doesn't follow a seasonality model. That's also for...
Good point. It lands when it lands. That is a very good point that Chantelle is making that in the cloud, we started having predictability of how they landed and how they got constructed. In AI, it's taking longer. .
Your next question comes from the line of David Vogt with UBS.
I'm going to ask this question at the risk of Jayshree yelling at me. When we think about your '26 outlook that you just raised, which we didn't expect you to raise this early in the cycle, if I just take what you're doing with regards to the AI-centric opportunity, [ Campus and Bello ], it doesn't leave a lot of room for growth in the core business outside of AI and campus. Maybe can you speak to what you're seeing in that particular market and how we should think about that progressing through 2026?
Okay. Well, just -- I'll say in its Jayshree's to figure out which tone she wants to answer this. But I think the part that I would take a look at again, I go back to kind of how we started at early '25, maybe even '24, part of our style is to not assume 100% everything hits to get to a number, and we'd like to leave ourselves with some optionality. And so we're putting some goals for ourselves with the AI, we're going goals for ourselves with campus. It doesn't mean we're not focused on the rest. But I don't think it's the right approach to assume everything is going to be 100% and leave ourselves exposed and we'll continue to update as we see it. Right, Jayshree.
Yes, absolutely. And so yelling isn't the tone I'd like to be attributed to excitement, maybe our enthusiasm is the one I'd like you to think about, which is clearly AI and campus is going to grow and do great guns for us, as it should because they are 2 very large TAMs whether it is Ken and Tyson driving the AI and cloud TAM or whether it's original driving the campus and these 2 are going to grow substantially in double digits, right?
So to your point, it doesn't leave the core business with a lot of opportunity. But that's not to say it may be flattish. It may be grow. It's to say that our customers are putting more attention there. and that the existing business, which is already on very large numbers will have lesser growth. We don't yet know if it's flattish or single-digit or whether more will go to AI, we frankly can't predict the mix this early in the game on 2026. But we think we're in for a great ride in 2026.
Your next question comes from the line of Ben Reitzes with Melius Research.
I appreciate you clarifying some of those earlier questions more in the long term tree. I think there was an earlier question on OpenAI and Anthropic. And just some of these larger builds with the private companies that obviously are becoming hyperscalers. Maybe without naming names or whatnot. I just wanted to hear about your confidence I'm able to participate in some of these builds that are affiliated with some of your cloud titans. And do you think you'll get a lot of this growth? Is there anything that's changing or evolving that gives you more or less confidence as we end the year here in '25?
Yes, that's a really good question, Ben, and thank you for that thoughtful question. Until now, majority of how we've measured our AI success through our cloud and AI titans has been a number of GPUs and how much are they installing and can we verify that the Ethernet network works. The majority of it to date has been scaled out. First, I want to reflect that there are 3 big use cases sitting in front of us, scale up, scale out and scale across. Arista's participation to date has largely been in scale-out. So we got 2 major use cases in addition, augmenting this, and that's what makes the Etherlink portfolio that Ken described so eloquently so beautiful.
Now how are these being built? Clearly, they're being driven by large language models, tokens transformers, inference use cases, you name it all. So the influence is clearly coming from these players you named but the way they are driving the infrastructure, and I can't give track of the giga myself, it's 10 gigawatts here, 10 there, 30 there. It's adding up to a lot but I can just tell you, no matter what it is, Arista is being looked at as a very important and relevant participant, especially right now in the scale out and scale across we will participate in the scale up.
It will take a little longer. Today, there's largely a set of proprietary technologies like NVLink or PCIe. And I think that will happen more in '27. So that to say that as we get now confident about exceeding our $10 billion goal next year, we're looking at our next goal of $15 billion in the next few years. And I think AI will be a very large part of it and will be the companies you mentioned.
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Long with Barclays.
Jayshree, maybe if we could just dig a little bit. You mentioned Blue Box a few times here kind of in that middle portion of the good, better, best, two-parter. One, could you talk a little bit about kind of the economic model margins or anything like that, that we should expect as Blue Box becomes a bigger part of the mix over time? And second, can you talk a little bit about where we would expect to see these type of deployments? I'm assuming something like scale up might be, as you described, a little bit more simple to the full EOS, but from either a customer or a use case standpoint, where would you expect Arista to be most successful with Blue Box deployment?
Yes. Thank you. Those are a good set of questions. I think I mentioned at the Analyst Day already quickly seeing success. I'll give you one example where they were just not getting their white box to work. These are AI mission-critical workloads. And we're seeing a neo-cloud come right in with, in this case, non NVIDIA GPUs, in fact, where they're looking to deploy Arista with its excellent hardware. And at first, they wanted to do an Open NOS, but now they are adopting a hybrid strategy where it's not only an Open NOS, but Ken's EOS is coming to shine in its full glory in this use case. So in this case, I think it's a Blue Box to start with quickly going into a hybrid state of blue and branded EOS box.
The economics on that is not too different from cloud and AI titans, generally speaking, although there will be scenarios like you rightly mentioned, hasn't yet come to play. But as we go to significant scale up volume, we expect more margin and economic capability coming together. In other words, the volume of these things will be larger, the pressure on margins will be greater. So -- but we will carefully have a mix of scale up, scale out and scale across to not affect the overall margins but definitely take our fair share in that. So hopefully, I answered your question on both Tim.
Our next question comes from the line of Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.
Great. Maybe a question for you, Jayshree. Just on I know you guys aren't breaking out the front end and back end anymore. But just as more inference kind of use cases are getting built out, just what are you seeing in terms of just like how the front-end network upgrades are happening maybe versus where your expectations were a year ago?
Yes. Thank you. I think a year or maybe even 2 years ago, it I may have told you this, we were literally outside looking in at all these back-end networks that were largely being constructed by with InfiniBand. We've seen a sea change, particularly this year, where obviously more and more times, we're being invited to construct their 800-gig. Last year, it was more 400 gig. And I think next year will be a combination of 8 and 1.60 on the back end. The back end is putting pressure on the front end, which is why it's getting more difficult for us to say, okay, what's the back-end member that natively connect connects to GPUs and what is the front end.
But we know of concrete cases and our cloud titans, where not only is putting pressure on the AI number, but they're having to go and upgrade their cloud infrastructure to deal with it. That part is not happening in a small sort of way. But what's happening in a big sort of way is the back and front are co-listing and converging more and it's really becoming hard to tell, and it's probably 60 1.5 a dozen of the other.
I'd just like to point out that we're seeing that Arista, I think, is the only successful vendor outside of China selling both front end and back end. And this is where our engineering alignment is so important because we can offer the customer a consistent solution across their entire infrastructure. I think this is a unique differentiator that will really help us succeed as these networks become more and more mainstream.
Your next question comes from the line of Karl Ackerman with BNP Paribas.
How should we think about your market opportunity between disaggregated scheduled fabrics versus non-scaled fabrics which appear to be used in the largest AI accelerator clusters at one of your largest customers. I mean, do you, in fact, happen to be the only networking switch better who offers both networking topologies? And I'm curious if other data center operators seek to adopt your DS architecture, given the congestion-free advantages it offers?
Well, I think you hit on it, and Ken hit on it, too, so I'd like him to answer part of the question. But look, we're not religious. We jointly developed the DSF architect with one of our leading cloud tightness meter. And we've been selling the not scheduled fabric for a very long time. So we've never been religious about this. and both are doing very, very well at our cloud titans and specifically the one we codeveloped with.
That's exactly right. We've had both architectures in massive production scale for, I think, 15 years now. And we will continue to offer this range of choice to our customers, offering them their choice between the highest value fabric with deep buffers, no hotspots, congestion-free loss-free or an unscheduled fabric, which is maybe lower cost, but also can be more difficult to operate. And they both run the same software. So it gives the customer a range of options and a consistent operating model.
Your next question comes from the line of Simon Leopold with Raymond James.
I wanted to come back to the topic around the blue box, which you've talked about quite a bit at the analyst meeting. So I appreciate it's not new. But what I don't quite think I understand how it may be evolving or changing in that it sounds like there's a broader base of customers that may be employing it and that this is a factor that's in your 2026 margin guidance. Could you elaborate on what you're assuming Blue Box trends are in 2026?
I think the Blue Box trends in 2026 will continue to remain with a handful of customers who know how to -- who have the operational skill to deal with it. So think of that as largely our specialty cloud providers or tighten. It's not going to be mainstream. So single-digit customers probably maybe 10, maybe 20, but it's not going to be hundreds, number one, because we really have to have the operational excellence to take our net DI and our hardware and build upon it and they're open loss or whatever, right?
However, in that scenario, you are right to point out that because we may not have the EUS layer, we will take a lower margin on that. And that's factored into our 2026 guide and mix and we think the combination of the Blue Box and the U.S. branded box, if I can call it that, will continue to help us thrive with a profitable and high-growing business.
Your next question comes from the line of James Fish with Piper Sandler.
Just on that topic of Blue Box tracking way maybe not just 2026, but what do you see in terms of the mix regarding the adoption curve as to what percentage of the business could actually represent over not just next year but 3, 5 years from now? And you guys mentioned the convergence of end and back end. Does that take away from kind of your advantage of where you sit today, though, if that mine starts to blur a little more and allows competition to enter?
Yes, please go ahead.
In terms of the front end and back-end converging, this is purely advantageous to us because the front end requires a massive number of features. It's incredibly mission-critical and supports a whole variety of applications. not just the straightforward of demanding communication patterns at the AI back end. So we see that our ability to tackle both of them effectively is a significant source strength and a real differentiator and not something that's not easy for competitors to replicate. If you look at NVIDIA, for example, the sales volume is small in the front end, and Cisco was small in the back end. And so I think we'll see that kind of convergence being beneficial to us.
Yes. Thank you, Ken. On the Blue Box, I'm not sure we modeled 3 to 5 years. But if I had to venture what I think the evolution of the Blue Box will be. I think it will be more significant in the scale up use cases where there's a higher dependency on the strength of our hardware and our net DI capability and a lower requirement for software. So don't know yet what that will be. I think it will be high end units, low in dollars kind of thing. So the mix may still be small, but it will actually be incremental since that's not a use case we do today.
Your next question comes from the line of Antoine Chkaiban with New Street Research.
I'd like to ask about the UHC. So can you maybe tell us about the progress that the consortium is making, whether the different voices are aligned and what milestones investors should be looking out for going forward?
And can you repeat your question? You weren't coming into clear?
I'm asking about the Ultra Ethernet consortium. Maybe can you say...
Yes. Yes. Yes, Antoine, yes. So after 2 years of lots of hard work led by [ Hugh Holbrook ] and now [ Tom Emans ], UEC did publish their first specification, I believe it was 1.0 in June of 2025. Arista's ethylene portfolio is entirely capable compatible, and we will continue to add more and more compliance, packet trimming, packet spring, dynamic load balancing. These are all important features that our switches support.
And we will augment that with the ESUN specification. As I described, we've been an early pioneer, 4 vendors started this together, including Broadcom, Arista and a couple of our Titan customers, I'm pretty sure it will be 20, 25, 30 over time. And having a standards-based our OCP ESUN agreement will allow us to expand UEC into the scale-up configuration as well, leveraging UEC and IEEE specs. So this modular framework for Ethernet for scale-up and scale-out is a thing of beauty and Arista is in the middle of it.
Your next question comes from the line of George Notter with Wolf Research.
I think in the monologue, you mentioned Neo Cloud is an area where you're getting more momentum. I think you guys actually said at the Analyst Day as well. I'm just curious like what are you seeing with that customer set? I guess from my perspective, I've historically cut out of that customer as being more focused on the bundle, which isn't necessarily your game, but it sounds like you're maybe talking a bit more positively. I'm just wondering what you're seeing in that space.
Yes. No, George, I think you're right. I think in the beginning, we were looking at them bundling. I can think of 2 examples where we want to and invite it to the party because you won my GPU, you've got to get the network from me. So we want to -- but there are -- leaving the 2 aside and even I think those 2 might be -- might get open-minded over time. There are many more neoclouds worldwide coming up that are really looking for Arista's help, not only on the product but on the network design on the software capability that they just don't have the staff and expertise to do everything themselves, and they would rather let us satisfy their network needs.
So we are taking down many neo cloud and smaller enterprises admittedly smaller numbers of GPU clusters as well. But if they start with 1,000 to a few thousand, then we're hopeful they'll grow because the one advantage they seem to all have is colo space and power, which is, as you know, is a very prestigious asset going forward.
Your next question comes from the line of Sebastien Naji with William Blair.
I'd like to understand a little bit more about the investments you're making in the enterprise go-to-market looks like sales and marketing expenses stepped up in the quarter. Where do you think you make the most progress as we go into 2026? Is it geographic expansion? Is it investing more into the channel? Is it just trying to cross-sell more into the existing enterprise customer base? I'd love to get your thoughts there.
Yes. You're hitting on a really important spot because we really have 2 sites to our coin. On 1 side, the AI and cloud makes us dizzy, but we're just as excited and buzzy about the huge $30 billion TAM, and that's why we're so happy to have Todd here. We were just at an international innovate in London that Ken, Todd and I all got a chance to see and the excitement and enthusiasm for a relevant high-quality network vendor has never been higher. So indeed, we want to invest there. Todd, do you want to say a few words?
Yes. We're excited about the growth here across the board from the enterprise space, but there's 3 real dimensions we're staying really focused on. One is expansion into the campus. The VeloCloud acquisition completes our portfolio there, getting great traction, pushing extremely hard around the world. It's a ton a ton of white space accounts for us that we haven't gotten. I think you mentioned geographic expansion. That's great. We saw good numbers in Asia this quarter. We've got a lot of opportunity, I think, to accelerate there. And we like the progress -- but the last is just reaching new logos, and we're investing in our channel to really deliver that and bring us more opportunities more at bats to find folks and introduce them to Arista for the first time.
That was a cricket analogy. .
Yes, it was quick. .
Yes, there you go. So Sebastien, we're feeling really good, and it clearly is the other half of our numbers.
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Koontz with Needham.
This is [ Jeff Hobson ] on for Ryan Koontz. We've seen a lot of the deals with the hyperscalers or the AI model companies with new data center build-outs, probably not a level since we've seen with the cloud build-out. So I was just curious, is there a way to think about Arista's opportunity with new network builds versus refreshing or upgrading existing networks?
Yes, that's exactly the way to think about it because in the past with the cloud, we really got to talk about gigawatts and beyond. So much of them are multi-megawatts, so these are newly constructed AI build-outs as opposed to the traditional CPU or storage-driven cloud build-outs. Of course, they will have refresh 2. But frankly, they're not getting the attention, all the attention is going to the new build-outs for AI. So that's the right way to look at it.
So we have time for 1 last question.
That comes from the line of Ben Bollin with Cleveland Research.
Jayshree, you talked a little bit about some of the tightening lead time conditions out there. Curious what you're seeing from these cloud customers around engineering and delivery lead times, how that has evolved? And changes you're seeing on your confidence in delivering their needs whatever, in the next 12, 18 months. That's it.
Ben, as you know, forecast is a very delicate science. I hardly get it right. So I do rely as does Tyson and Ken and the whole team on early preview and early forecasts from our large customers, without which we couldn't do proper planning even before the put in their purchase orders, we've got to have a good idea of what they want. And you're seeing that reflected in Chantelle's purchase commitment. So when it comes to our large and intimate customer engagement, they understand, and they've gotten burned with the 2022 supply crisis and are absolutely planning with us.
Some of that is true in Todd's areas, too, with the large enterprises because in a large data center, you have to plan ahead. It's not like they miraculously show up. They need power, they need space, and those are 1- or 2-year lead times. Where we have to be more vigilant and this is something Todd and my campus and the entire manufacturing team is working on is realized as a campus business, we had one of our best quarters. Congratulations, Todd, Kumar, this quarter on the campus. That planning cycle is a lot shorter. That tends to be diving weeks, not months or half a year or longer, right? So we're working again on this dichotomy in our business and planning as much as we can for the AI, but also planning ahead as much as we can for the enterprise and campus. Would you like to add something, Todd?
Yes. I'll just add, we are getting aggressive as Jayshree said on to improve our CapEx lead times and really accelerate that business and help drive the enterprise growth that we feel pretty passionately about. And the only other thing is that the investment here and the amount of dollars being put into purchasing taking the purchase commitment is key as we look for improvement in that.
Thanks, Jayshree and Todd. That concludes Arista Networks Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. We have posted a presentation that provides additional information on our results, which you can access on the Investors section of our website. Thank you for joining us today and for your interest in Arista.
Thank you for joining. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Arista Networks, Inc. — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $2,31 Mrd (≈$2,3 Mrd in CFO‑Kommentar), +27,5% YoY; Software & Services ~18,7% des Umsatzes.
- Bruttomarge: 65,2% non‑GAAP (favorable Mix & Inventory), leicht über Guidance; Q4‑Guidance niedriger (62–63%).
- Betriebsergebnis / EPS: Operatives Ergebnis $1,12 Mrd (48,6% Marge); Netto $962,3 Mio; verwässertes EPS $0,75, +25% YoY.
- Bilanz: Liquide Mittel $10,1 Mrd; Aktienrückkaufrahmen: $1,4 Mrd verbleibend; Lagerbestand $2,2 Mrd.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Fokus: Fokus auf künstliche Intelligenz (AI) als Treiber: Ziel für AI‑Aggregate $1,5 Mrd (2025) und AI‑Center Ziel $2,75 Mrd in FY‑26; AI als Kernwachstumstreiber.
- Produktstrategie: Plattformansatz mit Etherlink, EOS (Arista‑Betriebssystem), AVA (Autonomous Virtual Assistant) sowie Standards‑Engagement (UEC – Ultra Ethernet Consortium, ESUN – Ethernet for scale‑up) für Scale‑up/scale‑out.
- Go‑to‑Market: Blue‑Box (White Box / Open NOS) koexistiert mit Arista‑branded Boxen; gezielte Expansion in Campus/Neo‑Cloud und internationale Märkte.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Q4: Umsatz $2,3–2,4 Mrd; Bruttomarge 62–63% (inkl. bekannter Tarifszenarien); operative Marge ~47–48%; effektiver Steuersatz ~21,5%; verwässerte Aktien ~1,281 Mrd.
- FY‑25 / FY‑26: FY‑25 Wachstum ~26–27% (Mittelpunkt $8,87 Mrd). FY‑26 Guideline: ~20% Wachstum, Ziel $10,65 Mrd; Bruttomarge ~62–64%; operative Marge 43–45% (Investitionen für Strategie berücksichtigt).
- Risiken: Lieferketten‑Leadtimes (38–52 Wochen), erhöhte Purchase‑Commitments ($7 Mrd) und mögliche Tarifauswirkungen können Quartals‑Volatilität erzeugen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Wachstums‑Seitwärts: Kritik an kurzfristiger „Abflachung“ – Management erklärt dies primär als Liefer‑/Ship‑Timing, nicht als Nachfrageschwäche.
- Margendruck: Analysten forderten Aufschlüsselung; Management: Mix‑Effekte (Cloud/AI >> Produktmargen) und Blue‑Box‑Anteile drücken Produktmargen, aber Erwartung bleibt innerhalb der Guidance.
- Blue Box & Marktanteil: Nachfrage und Modellverteilung (scale‑up vs scale‑out) sowie Entscheidungsprozesse bei Cloud/LLM‑Anbietern waren Schwerpunkt; Management blieb vage zu konkreten Marktanteilsverschiebungen, betonte aber stabile Position gegenüber Bundling/White‑Box‑Konkurrenz.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Solide Quartalszahlen und starker Kassa‑Puffer untermauern Aristas ambitionierte 2026‑Prognose (20% Wachstum). Kurzfristig bleibt Ergebnisvolatilität wegen Lieferfristen, Mix‑ und Acceptance‑Effekten; mittelfristig ist AI‑Getriebenes Wachstum das zentral bewertbare Upside für Aktionäre.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Analyst/Investor Day - Arista Networks, Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today at Arista's Analyst Day event. Thank you. Over the course of this afternoon, we hope to share with you our vision and our strategy and our opportunity to drive innovation in this area of networking. My name is Rudolph Araujo, and I head investor advocacy here at Arista. I want to thank you all for coming. I know some of you have come from far and wide. Today, you will hear from a number of our executives, as we cover a number of key topics that we've prepared for you.
We'll start off with Jayshree talking about our centers of data strategy, where we are on our Arista 2.0 momentum and where we're headed. We'll then have Ken and Todd talk about AI for networking and how we are uniquely positioned to bring the reliability of the cloud to the enterprise. We'll then take a quick break, allowing you to stretch your legs, grab some coffee. And then we'll head into talking about AI Ethernet fabrics and the power of Ethernet for AI and cloud networking with Andy and Hugh.
We'll finally wrap it up with Chantelle, talking about our financials. And then we'll have a Q&A panel where we'll have a number of our leaders up here to answer your questions. Before we go too much further, though, I did want to read our forward-leaning statement. During the course of this investor event, Arista Networks management will make forward-looking statements, including those relating to our financial outlook for the 2025 fiscal year, our longer-term business model and financial targets for 2026 and beyond, including revenue targets for certain market segments in 2026, our total addressable market and strategy for addressing these market opportunities, including the AI market, are drivers for growth and diversification our investment in capital allocation strategy, U.S. architectural advantages and future evolution, product innovation, customer demand trends, tariffs and trade restrictions, supply chain constraints, component costs, manufacturing output, inventory management and inflationary pressures on our business, lead times, working capital optimization and the benefits of acquisitions, which are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K and which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements.
These forward-looking statements apply as of today, and you should not rely on them representing our views in the future. We undertake no obligation to update these statements after this event. Before we get to the rest of this agenda, I did want to take a moment to acknowledge all the lives impacted by 9/11. It is now my great privilege to welcome our Chairperson and Chief Executive Officer, Jayshree Ullal to the stage.
So first of all, a warm welcome to all of you. It's always great to see you. And for those of you who traveled either from the Goldman Sachs conference or from the East Coast, really appreciate it. I know it's so easy to just sit behind and watch this online. But for those of you who are doing that, we appreciate it as well. Today, I'm most proud to not only present our strategy, but to share with you the depth of our leadership team and how long we've come I talked to a lot of you who dealt with Arista back before we were public or when we first came to this new building and we were barely having any furnishings and we had our first Analyst Day, and I think you'd all agree that we've come a long, long way. .
So today, I'd like to share some of the how we've come a long, long way. Some of the numbers and the market momentum and the revolutions and evolutions of Arista, what does centers of data on Arista 2.0 mean to us?
Of course, no presentation would be complete if I didn't talk about AI centers and what we're doing in networking. Some of you have asked what's the blue box. And so today, I'll take -- I'll make a more concerted effort to share with you that while we will coexist peacefully with the white box that Arista is here to stay with a highly differentiated strategy and architecture with our Blue Box.
And finally, what you're probably most waiting for give you a preview. And then of course, Chantelle, our CFO, will share a lot more detail. Let's quickly look at the Arista journey over the last decade since at least the beginning of when we started shipping products in 2009. Many of you may know, we pioneered the leaf/spine. We started out as a low latency company. And I still remember my early conversations with [indiscernible]. And I said, "Hey, everybody talks about access, aggregation core, but we're seeing a much more flat topology and what do you think of that?" And we had a lot of discussion back then actually on InfiniBand, which had this close architecture with leaf/spine.
And I'm sure you'd all agree, Nick, especially that Arista was the first to pioneer this leaf/spine architecture and bring this active end way. We started out with 4 and 8 way. Today, we are at over [ 576 way ], which shows the massive [ radics ] and intensity of bandwidth, telemetry automation that we pioneered. And so this has obviously been the core of our existence and continues to be as we evolve in the next direction.
If you look at how we went then in the 2015 to 2020 era, I would say we started then building a universal cloud network, UCN, where we move from places in the network, which were different silos where each one, whether it was campus or data center or a wide area routing or service provider had their own operating system and their own network. So wouldn't it be great if we built a leaf/spine architecture, where they had a universal spine, active active and then any kind of leaf, it could be a compute leaf, storage leaf, a campus leaf, of course, a data center architecture or service provider routing and segue into that and, of course, cloud.
And this is something we have really gone from sort of the innovations on best-of-breed product to what I would call best-of-breed categories. And then finally, now, I think we are at this point, where we're really building a platform. So not only are we looking to be the best data center company, but really the centers of data. And what does that really mean? What's the play on words that networking is moving to something way more strategic than just connectivity. And today is at the epicenter of almost everything we do from a consumer to an enterprise to a cloud to, of course, everything we do in AI.
And we'll, of course, share a lot more of what we mean by that. We've got some old timers, present company included. So Ken and Andy started the company. So they're over 20 years with us. Thank you, both of you. And although I think Ken is glad that I don't any more share the office with him because I spent too much time on the phone. But having said that, I think you're seeing a lot of the depth of our company still being very much in engineering and technology. We're a company built by engineers, often for engineers, which are our customers.
But we've added some new leaders as well. I don't know if John McCool's here, but he's taken a nice break, but he will be returning back to help us, especially with some of our new acquisitions, in particular, VeloCloud. Mark Foss, Ashwin, Chris and Chris, as we call them, have all been with the company anywhere from 12 years to 18 years, so a lot of longevity. But I want to point your attention to some new faces. Chantelle, I'm not sure I can call you a new face anymore because you've been with us here in our second year, but it's great to have a great business partner. But on the right, Todd Nightingale, who many of you may have met at the Goldman Conference.
It's an absolute pleasure to welcome him as our Co-President, along with Ken Duda. And Tyson Lamero, who's now -- this is his first week, so be kind to him in the question-and-answer session, and he'll be heading up one of our largest and biggest strategic opportunities in cloud and AI. Tyson built the first cloud at AWS and also built the first AI network in a sovereign AI company. So it's really great to have this lineup here.
And behind these leaders are an awesome number of folks as well as we probably trend to about 5,000 employees this year, maybe we'll cross it. So when I talk about these 3 categories of leaf/spine, places in the network to places in the cloud and now to centers of data, you can see there's been some pretty exciting numbers with it.
As we built these best-of-breed products, we went from 0 to crossing our first $1 billion in 2016. And then we went into the second and third billion right around the pandemic. And we did a little bit of the struggling in the $2 billion range around the pandemic and then in the supply chain crisis. But you can see the last 3, 4 years, has just been absolutely stunning.
And we've had that break away as we have gone from best-of-breed products to layering the right platform capability in the enterprise, in the service providers, in the Neo cloud specialty providers and of course, then in our very close Titan customers, our AI and cloud titans. So we've committed to you that we will do $8.75 billion this year, a little earlier than we would have anticipated.
But barring any execution on Todd and [indiscernible] on the shipment side, we feel pretty good about this number. And today, we'll share with you, of course, where we're heading in '26. But high performance also requires a measure on market share. These trends are still in '24, but I just got hot off the press that in 800 gig this quarter in Q2 2025, Arista is now emerging #1 despite the fact that there's a lot of Chinese competition and bundled competition and white box competition.
So -- but this is a category of how we do with not only 800 gig, but 10, 40, 100, 200, 400 gig and including [indiscernible] And we were always heading in the direction of overlapping with the dominant players on the port section, but it's really good to see how we are doing that both in switching ports and dollars.
Probably never in the history of any incumbent company have you seen that kind of trend. It's been slow and steady, but it's, I believe, here to stay, witnessed by our real maniacal focus on that best-of-breed technology, both at the hardware level and at the software level. That's reflected also in our high-speed ports, as I said. There's really 3 sectors now. There's Arista, there's rest of market. This is where we would put in white box or NVIDIA or other customers.
And then, of course, the dominant player of the switching and overall is still Cisco. But in high-performance data center, you can see that trends are really changing and changing very quickly. Now I want to kind of go back in time because once you get as old as I am, you end up being a historian and you'd tell stories about the past. I promise to tell stories about the present and future, too, but let's go back to the past.
When Andy recruited me to this company in 2008, he said, do you think we can do, and we were, of course, as close to 0 as you can be. And he said, do you think we can do our first $100 million? And I said, well, we're at 0, and we are building a switching company. There's a lot of switching companies. You guys have to remember the playing field there. There was Blade Networks, there was Force10, Extreme Foundry, you can name them all, right?
And so we -- in fact, it was commonly called Cisco and the 7 dwarfs, if you all remember, right? So I used to take great pride in saying we were the tallest of the midgets. Now I don't want to talk about our height. I want to talk about our relevance, right? And I want to -- this slide basically describes our relevance because we were greatly inspired by an RFP we saw where folks like Amazon and Google were already building their cloud.
But why is it a single vendor couldn't build what the cloud required, which was give me a nonblocking architecture. At that time, give it to me for 1 gigabit or 10 gigabit and give it to me at a very effective price per port, which at that time was $100 a port. As we have stepped to 40 gig, 50 gig, 400, 800, the $100 price is actually more now dwarfed by optics and many things. But the fundamental essence of scalability, predictable latency, highly non-blocking high radix architecture hasn't changed. So you can see here the switch capacity has just taken off from a terabit of switching to today, we talk about 200 terabits and going further.
And then the programmability and bandwidth and latency on the y-axis requirements keep changing. So this RFP that inspired us greatly continues to inspire us just at higher and faster speeds. And it's important, I think, when you're a company to still have that substantive DNA on what you're built off and what you're made of. The last few years, although we're a great software company, we built great hardware.
But hardware wasn't recognized, and now it's back. Chips and hardware are back. And our ability to bring the best of silicon, the best of platforms and the best of software is what's going to really drive and dictate how networks are built. Now I talked about this universal spine. And once again, it's so important to understand that Arista not only pioneered the leaf/spine architecture, but actually pioneered the spine platforms.
Many of you may remember the 7500, which at that time was the best footprint, the best power with the maximum density of 10 gigabit. We went from a 10-gig spine to in 2014 when we went public from a 10 terabit to 30 terabits. And then as we added more capability, we were pushing the envelope of compute and storage with the 7800. And today, the 7800R4, as we call it, is the platform for AI spines, compute, storage and this thing we call AI accelerators or GPUs.
This progression and having these 4 generations of capability have been important. But by the way, every step of the way, we've had to develop more and more software features in EOS to make this hum. We couldn't take the same platform and just say, all right, it's good for the cloud, it's good for the rest. And so the EtherLink portfolio, as you'll hear from Hugh and Andy, and building very optimized features for the back end and front end has been fundamental.
Now it's all about at the end of the day, going from connectivity to managing data. And there really are different forms of data you're trying to manage. First, you're trying to make sure the data is highly available. It'd be great to just have 2 of everything, but the ability for us to do smart system upgrade at the leaf level, at the spine level, at the path level, at the supervisor level and really provide a copy of everything if 1 goes down, is baked right into our software with our automatic fault containment and repair, to our supervisor to our line cards to the switches themselves.
So that was the first goal. The second was not just zero-touch automation, but day 0, day 1, day 2, fully orchestrate. And I still remember when I was with one of the premium data center customers, and we were able to bring that time down from 6 hours to 20 minutes. That is still not doable with -- and if you don't do that, you've got to put 100 people to do that.
So making the software reduce that kind of automation time has been even more important in the campus as you start to have this proliferation of devices be it IoT, devices of different kinds, MAC addresses, no MAC addresses, are they users? Are they devices? Are they both? So that day 0 automation that we stressed about with the data center is now coming to play to automate and provision and orchestrate with CloudVision across that.
And finally, interact. It used to be we worried more about media and entertainment workloads -- workflows. But today, we have to worry even more with our Etherlink portfolio about AI and how compute intensive they are, how they have short-lived flows and yet they're very bursty, so the fidelity, the diversity and the interaction of these flows as you do the cycle time becomes the job completion time is fundamental but so is the time to the first job completion as he will share with you.
So our products, we now have over 50 products in our portfolio, a very complete one in data center, a very complete one in the routed WAN as well as in the campus now with the Velo heading to the branch center. The new ones that we added, particularly in the last year, was the AI center Etherlink portfolio. And then all of the software services the segmentation, network detection, network identity, security, encryption as well as observability that we add into the network, and they're not afterthoughts, but they're really part of this entire product portfolio.
So when you manifest this into an architecture, and this is how really our centers of data come in, you have the leaf/spine architecture. The spine may connect to the WAN, the spine may connect to data center interconnects. But now you have a leaf architecture with a single [ EOS ] that can have different personalities for the campus, for the data center to bring your wired and wireless together. And this underlay is not the only thing. Now we have a whole software stack that's automating and orchestrating a suite of features and here are examples of them. The Zero Touch, the location identity with the platform we came out with called, the AGNI, the Arista Guardian for Network Identity, macro segmentation and NDR products.
Our virtual stack that we introduced recently, where we said stackable should not be proprietary. It should be based on the same IP and Ethernet capabilities so you didn't have to put a different physical capability. And you can go active active and still bring a stack of 100 or 200 devices. And then finally, of course, is VeloCloud SD-WAN. On that overlay, we manage it all through CloudVision by bringing the streaming telemetry of every single switch that you can correlate, visualize, architect, manage the state of. And then finally, you'll hear today more about not just how Arista is great in networking for AI, which is our Etherlink products, but how we are using AI to diagnose, troubleshoot, correlate and bringing those LLMs to work into our network itself from Ken.
So I know agentic AI is a buzzword. And today, our AI centers are largely in this phase. Generative AI training of extremely large language models. This is the back end that's fueling our front end. But as we go forward, we see many more phases. We see bringing that AI into the edge with inference and really having agentic AI with all of the applications, and we'll be showing a demo shortly with Fred. So I think many people ask is the AI a bubble, is it here to stay. I think AI is that the killer application that starts out like a mainframe in training and then permeates the entire network, including the enterprise over time.
AI is also affecting why we did the VeloCloud acquisition. It is because of agenetic AI that we saw the pressure to put more bandwidth and put more capability into the branch with SD-WAN. And so Arista is now bringing in Velo and our Campus products, the Campus Center and the Branch Center for ease of use, for security, for quality of service into the same umbrella because a large campus and a mini-me campus needs the same attributes, but they may need an MSP or a WAN across it, and that's in fact the goal.
It gives me great pride to say that we're also heading in the right direction in many of the Gartner Magic Quadrants. Of course, undoubtedly, you would not be surprised to see that we're a leader in the leadership quadrant in the data center. Although ironically, it took us 5 years after we really were a leader in market share to get there, by the way. For the longest time, we were still an aspiring MQ player. And that's, in fact, where we are in Campus, still aspiring even though we think we've achieved a lot of premium wins. It's only fitting to speak about 9/11 and all the things that got destroyed in New York. I'm reflecting now on a very major campus win, where this brand new building has come in that Arista is the smack in the middle of bringing together in that post 9/11 era.
I can't give the name out, but these -- we're winning some of the most stunning premium enterprise names for specialty wired and in many cases, also bringing in the WiFi. And I believe our [ $750 ] million this year is the beginning of many years to come, particularly with the with the help of Todd. And finally, this is the Magic Quadrant on the SD-WAN, which has since moved to [ SASI ]. But a word on this. I think independent on how you look at the quadrant, you still need really good WAN to connect into your branch and that's where Arista will stay focused.
We will work with market leaders like Zscaler and Palo Alto to do the cloud security overlay on that. So we won't pretend to be something we're not and fully take advantage of the Velo capability to be the best wired, wireless and WAN in a box, in a branch. Now I said we will talk a little bit about AI networking and scale up and scale out Ethernet. And I wanted to quickly show you an anatomy of how this looks. So first of all, let's start at the bottom.
You all know that we collect a bunch of GPUs as I'm starting to call more XPUs because there can be any accelerators. And these are the ones doing the massive crunching while you have a CPU assist for processing or indexing, et cetera. They typically today go through a PCIe switch and then they go to either an RDMA NIC, or UEC NICs that are coming in for more packet steering and RDMA is becoming, in my view, over time more and more optional. So where does Arista play? Arista's largest play today is as we bring these inerts of the AI rack to the outer world where we connect with the back-end leaf/spine architecture. This is where we are strong.
Now we do see the opportunity as this native scale-up starts moving from NVLink to where there are many actions today. There's a standard going on for UALink, there's a standard going on for scale-up Ethernet transport. And there is, of course, NVIDIA's own proprietary bus. The first thing to remember is this is a very fast, high radix, low latency, almost simple network or bus. So the way Arista will play with this is enable more scale-up racks. All the EOS software that we do really gets ignited in the scale-out. But here, it will be lightweight, fast and move the packets in bits as much as you can.
We're big fans, you can imagine of Ethernet. I have never bet against on an [ Ether not ] technology, and I'm not about to start now. It may take time, but we strongly believe the scale-up Ethernet will come together, perhaps under the Ultra Ethernet Consortium or is a spec and products that are scale up Ethernet is very possible in the 2027 time frame as the standards emerge.
Now where does all this fit. A scale up rack typically looks at hundreds of GPUs or XPUs maybe you can go to 256, maybe you can go to 500, but that's the radix. So it's really within the rack. And Arista is working with a number of our customers to make these scale-up racks possible even today. a scale-out rack, and this is where we're really smack in the middle of right now, can go from 1,000 to 10,000 XPUs. And then if you really want to build football fields of 50,000 to 100,000 GPUs, as you've seen me talk about the few that do, that's when you need a 2 tier, not only a scale up, but you also need a scale out and very often a scale across because you're going across factories, across data centers to make this possible.
So read racks where we could have co-packaged copper and really fast low-latency switches in the first category, read leaf-spine in the middle, which we're doing and read scale across is where, in fact, the combination of our 7800 chassis and many times of leafs will really help us succeed. I'm going to skip a couple of these slides in the interest of time, and I know Hugh and Andy will cover it. But I do want to cover one thing that although we all get access to the same silicon, power is king and queen. Arista builds very optimized drivers, some of the best hardware designs.
And you can see here, we can translate to $3.5 million a year or $15 million savings over 4 years, which is stunning. You can literally buy your switches free at that point if you get the right power, right? So Arista's maniacal focus even on the same platform from the same chip vendor Arista can design it better, and that's a big deal. Same thing with 800 gig linear drive optics. Once again, we were able to save millions of dollars per year because you're getting rid of that DSP and you're co-locating the switch and the optics as closest you can together the electrical and the optical together, and this is becoming very, very popular at 800 gig SerDes.
I would be remiss if I didn't talk about the features that make [indiscernible]. We are working on a suite of features, not only on the back end that you've heard of like cluster load balancing, high availability, dynamic ingestion control, but the front end is now getting stressed and we need multi-tenant scale. We need encryption scale. We need streaming telemetry, a feature we call [ STANDS ] to make all this work. So the back end is putting pressure on the front end to make the AI network fully work. And therefore, the Etherlink portfolio is not just about high-speed hardware, but very rich features.
Now most of you have been asking me, but what about the white box, Jayshree, you must be competing against them, and you must be wondering how to challenge how to deal with that challenge. First, I want to take you to history. We have dealt with Whitebox since the beginning of time. And of course, they'll exist. ODMs, JDM, cheap cost-effective platforms at 10% gross margin or whatever it is, maybe good enough for someone. That's not Arista. Arista is trying to provide value and value means good price, good performance and good capability, right?
Having said that, we have worked on core development. So we don't look at this as do we build do we buy? We often work with our customers on a build-and-buy strategy so we can codevelop with them and make them better. And we've done that with SONiC. We've done that with FBOSS. And we've done that. You can see across 3 platforms already is 7388, the p Metax ] pack as well as the DSF7700 that was a Ethernet platform. To us, our strong partnerships are key to rapid deployment of our products and rapid core development of their products, both are very important for us. So why would they work with us if they can just go to a white box.
So let's -- to understand that, I need to share with you what is the blue box philosophy, first of all. You have a net DL foundation that's our U.S. tech. You typically on the hardware have a switch abstraction interface, I'm not telling you anything new right now. These are all the things we have. You have validation tools that come from us or come from the customer, often the customer deploys hundreds of engineers to do that or we do that for them in the enterprise.
And we have a set of deployment guides and tools in the enterprise for us -- for our customers. What's missing, the missing layer that makes blue box really hum is this diagnostics layer that's getting more and more difficult between your software stack and your hardware. It's not just the drivers in the switch abstraction interface, it is the ability to create an environment and a foundation so that we can run any NOS, an open NOS like SONiC or FBOSS or an open NOS like Arista EOS. And it's this diagnostic layer that is fundamental and strategic to creating the blue box. So what is the blue box. It is a suite of features that we call net DI, network diagnostics infrastructure that allows us to work between that highly complex multilayer hardware we have and the EOS software layer to give enough troubleshooting, validation signal integrity, L1 events for optics cables, L0 events for passive components like Flash and memory and power supplies, deployment checkers, control trackers for our manufacturing teams and bring this all like massive scale.
So it's a suite of functions. Actually, we've been working on for many years. It's a well-kept secret. And we've had just on U.S. alone, 30,000 man years. We're running at any given time, 300,000 diagnostic tests a day, and this is a large part of it. If you want to build anything at scale and not just build a throwaway box, the blue box is fundamentally enhanced by this firmware and [indiscernible] layer.
It's a huge work of art between our hardware, our troubleshooting teams, our firmware and our U.S. layer. So very proud of it, and you're going to hear more of it. And so think of it as if you have a product, which is our hardware and if you have a NOS open or closed, and you have AI ops on top of it, the green layer is all the stuff behind the scenes that we are doing between silicon power controllers, FPGAs, booting up things, control plane, data plane, management plane, how do they talk to each other at crazy speeds, high-speed SerDes and making that all work.
In fact, as NetDL has its own state and base, this NetDI has its own little [ mini 1, 2 ] to work with that NetDL. So it's a mini-me of NetDL for the hardware layer and the L1 functions we have to do. So it's very foundational. And this the Arista blue box complements the work we've done with state and NetDI to really bring these kind of functions, tools, diagnostics, signal integrity, quality control. secure boot loaders, passive flash component management, active cables, optics, loop-back management and finally, dashboards for deployment. It's amazing. It's all the secret behind what we do on switching that most of you don't get to see, but most of us get to work on.
So when you put this all together, I see a Arista advantage. You have the NetDL architecture. You have the diagnostics now, the NetDI coming in. You have the actual hardware that you see that's running all of this. And then increasingly with CloudVision, you'll see more and more AI-driven predictive tools that go beyond the typology and telemetry and observability we're all doing already to have natural language processing and queries for different types of events.
I'm so excited about this that finally, I want to share with you that we are in a rare breed of companies. When I put this slide together, we were at $150 billion market cap. But whatever we are, it took us a record time to achieve our first $1 billion in 2016. We went public in 2014. And I think it's going to take us a record time to achieve our first $10 billion. So our commitment to you for next year is $10.5 billion in 2026, which should be a 20% growth on extremely large numbers.
Now what does this consist of? And why? Well, we think the TAM for this in '29 is north of $100 billion. So we better capture our fair share and keep growing from that point on. It would only be fair with all the innovation and technology we're doing. As part of that number, there's going to be 2 very fast-growing markets. The campus, which includes the branch, which we think is going to grow due to the addition of VeloCloud at 60%, and we're aiming to go from that $750 million to $800 million number this year to $1.25 billion. So try to add another $500 million there. Ambitious goal, and we're signed up to it.
And then, of course, the AI market, which as I described to you, has to now include the back end and front end. We'll be converging to grow that at anywhere from 60% to 80%. If we end the year at $1.5 billion, it's an 80% growth. If we end the year a little higher and it's a 60% growth, but somewhere in the range that we're looking to achieve this number. So out of our $10.6 billion, 2 fast-growing markets will definitely contribute to achieve this.
And I'm very excited because I think -- for the first time in a long, long time, we're seeing -- we're always worried about what's the TAM, what's the market, what's the acquisition we have to do. We're seeing something that's sustainable for multiple years. And we're doing that with that foundational technology we have with NetDI, with NetDL with AVA, and for those of you who watch the video at the break we're also doing it with a suite of partners that goes beyond NVIDIA. Last year, we announced the NVIDIA partnership, and no doubt they're a market leader in AI.
But it's going to take a whole ecosystem of innovators to do it, not just ourselves, but working with the LLM modules, working with other GPUs working with storage. So I would like to invite, Fred, to show you a little demo of the agentic AI and how it's simplified.
What I'm going to show here is the demonstration of our genetic ABD and how it can simplify workflows for our operators. So what I'm going to do is ask the agent here to add a new vast storage endpoint to our network. And the agent is smart enough to know what are our best practices, what are the features we need to turn on and make this storage network flow really well.
But additionally, we partnered up with VAS to be able to call to their APIs and configure the storage device as well. So not only am I setting up the network, but I'm also going to set up my storage endpoint. We can do the same thing with another partner. So I'm going to have this also reach out to Pure Storage and create a virtual IP. So I can also set up a whole Pure Storage setup and configure the network as well.
Now building this on top of our ABD framework gives us 2 really big advantages. The first one is that everything is built off of a data model. So this helps us constrain the LLM and reduce the chances of hallucinations when we're generating these configs. The second thing you can see here is that as it generates the configs, it also generates network tests. So that's sort of an extra layer of safeguards there that if we do do something wrong, we'll catch it once we actually get into deployment.
So we'll tell the agent now to go ahead and deploy those configs and then run the tests. So we've now pushed these changes out to our network, and we get our test results back saying that, yes, everything went well. So the network is fully deployed. And just to kind of double check, we can check out the vast dashboard, and we can see that our connection has been established. So very quickly, we've gone and deployed an entire new storage network and taking what usually takes maybe weeks or months, knock that down to hours and minutes. And what's more is if you're a storage guy or someone who's not necessarily a network expert, you're able to now configure and deploy things on the network without necessarily having all that expertise.
See, I remember stressing over this when we were doing Fiber Channel over Ethernet and storage emulation. And it was days. It wasn't even hours. So thank you, Fred. This is a real demonstration of what we can do with AVD, which is our Arista Validated Designs. Before I end and transfer it over to our new President, I just want to thank you all. I think it's been an exciting journey, and I'm a worry what, I always worry about the next quarter and the next year. But I think what's going on here at Arista and as an industry, has been transformational and will continue to be for many years to come. Thank you.
Thank you all very much for coming. Really appreciate the chance to talk to you here. And what I'd like to focus on is AVA, our autonomous virtual assist and what we think can be achieved in AIOps, AI for networking. And of course, AVA is built on the foundation. So I'm going to start by talking about what that foundation is. Many of you have seen this before. But I'm going to say it all again because the foundations really matter. This is a structural competitive advantage right here in the architecture of the EOS stack.
In the EOS stack, on top of this with hardware, we have the net DI layer of diagnostic infrastructure that Jayshree told you all about, I'm not going into so much detail on that in this talk, but it's a lot of stuff, high-speed signaling, signal integrity, dealing with power and cooling all the different scenarios, making sure the switch is really going to work under lots of operating [indiscernible], dealing with single event upset subatomic particles from outer space come in and hit the switch ASIC, is your switch going to survive that, all of the sort of low-level hardware integrity validation, this layer of software is a major source of value of the Arista blue box platform regardless of what operating system is running on top.
But in the EOS stack, naturally, on top of NetDI, we run EOS, one operating system for all the use cases across the infrastructure. EOS feeds into our network data lake, on top of which we run CloudVision and AVA, the autonomous Virtual Assist. Having this consistent architecture across all domains of the network is a major competitive advantage for us because one OS, one architecture is just better for the customer. This infrastructure has got to work. Reliability is critical. And one of the main enemies of reliability and infrastructure, it's too many different configurations, too many different versions, too much complexity from having all that variance across their infrastructure.
I've talked to tech leaders, networking infrastructure leaders, one of them is one of the largest banks in the country, told me that from our competitor, he's running more than 200 different operating system versions. He has to track all of this. All the differences between them, the little flukes and differences in the protocols, the bugs, the security vulnerabilities, What a nightmare. With EOS, you have one OS to learn, one image to qualify. And this is actually really important, one API to automate against because 1 problem you have as an operator, you have all these different operating systems, they're all a little different, and your automation systems have to cope with all those differences.
But if you make it all the same, you do it right once, you do it right everywhere. It's just easier to configure, there's fewer mistakes. You get more reliable operations at scale, you can address more use cases this way. So having one OS across the whole domain is better for the customer, but it's also better for us. Can you imagine if you're a software engineer, dealing with that menagerie of different software versions, how do you test all of this? How do you make sure it all works properly. At Arista, we have one image to test. We run tens of thousands of tests every day. tests running fully autonomously. That means software testing software, 24/7.
We can all go on vacation. The software is still being tested. This -- we're testing this against every hardware platform. Every branch of code, all of our older releases, the work in progress, new features being developed, all being autonomously tested continuously. And this is all comes down to this principle, this is the development team at Arista that's responsible for quality. We don't say, "Oh, yes, we write the code." But these other guys, the QA guys, they're responsible for making sure our code works. No. The software developers are responsible.
And when you -- when you give people both the mandate and the responsibility to take ownership of the quality of their code, you get better code, and that's what we've done. Sometimes people ask me, well, what's your evidence that EOS quality is actually that much better than your competitors? And I'd like to offer you a model here, which is the model of the iceberg of bugs. If you imagine bugs are organized into a gigantic iceberg, floating in the water, poking out above the surface are the CVEs, it's like the tip of the iceberg. These are -- remember, not every bug is a security vulnerability, but every security vulnerability is a bug.
The CVEs are simply the visible subset of bugs that are publicly reported, publicly categorized and unclassified. And so if you look at the size of the CVEs, maybe that says something about the size of the whole iceberg of bugs. Now if you look at the public databases, you'll see that Arista EOS has dramatically fewer security vulnerabilities than other network operating systems. Tip of our iceberg is 1/10 the size. What does that say about the size of the overall iceberg? Like I wish I knew how big the iceberg was. Unfortunately, it's not publicly disclosed, but I believe it's probably about 10x bigger.
We've got 1/10 the CVEs, we probably got 1/10 of bugs of other types. Certainly from talking to customers and talking to the field about people's experience, I think that bears this out as well. And we can talk about fancy features all day long. But at the end of the day, what the customer cares about the most is my network working. So that's what we care about the most as well, which is why quality is always our highest priority.
Let me go back to the EOS stack and the software foundation on top of the switch. We run a standard Linux release. Alma 9 right now is the release we're on. And on top of Alma 9, we run NetDB. This is an Arista database that contains all of the state of switch, everything from hardware attributes, power supply voltages, temperature sensors, fan speeds, control plane stuff, what's going on with BGP and NAC learning and IGMP snooping and management plane activity as well, network authentication, that sort of thing. All of that state of how the network is running, is stored in NetDB across all the switches.
And in about 2014, we suddenly realized, wait a minute, we've got all this information in the switches, what if we stream that all out of the switches continuously, generating a stream of updates, indicating the state of each device into a common scale-out database, which we call NetDL. All of the updates stream out and NetDL winds up with a time series, a historical record of every state in the network across all of the devices in one place. And this state foundation is so valuable, having all of your state in a common representation, in the common infrastructure layer it enables you for provisioning, security, compliance, telemetry and of course, also for AI.
NetDL contains actually multiple types of state. There's the low level of state about the switches, interfaces, counters, the stuff which was actually streamed out the flows, the events on the switch, link traps when links go up or down or temperature events or things like that. But NetDL also maps all of those lower-level concepts to higher-level concepts, users, devices, applications, services and incidents. These are higher level ideas that come from the ability to observe across the whole network and also bring in data from other sources, including vCenter, OpenShift, Kubernetes, DNS, TLS header inspection, OAuth, radio servers, all this information comes into NetDL along with information from the switches from whether -- regardless of where the switches are, they could be virtual switches, running in the public cloud. They could be switches on your campus or your data centers, or all the way across the WAN service provider across -- this is, again, the advantage of having a common architecture across every domain to the network, you bring all this information from all these different places into a shared common database that then supports end-to-end visibility, end-to-end uniform provisioning, consistent treatment of network upgrades and software updates of security incidents, CVE handling, all of those things are unified.
And of course, that same NetDL is the foundation for AVA, our Autonomous Virtual Assist. So I'd like to finally talk a little more about aVA. So AVA, just from the name, the As are very important. AVA is not a chatbot, okay? Chatbots just sit there and wait around. You type in your question, get back your answer, they go off and do something else. No. AVA is an autonomous agent, running all the time in your network, always watching, always trying to understand, what's normal, what's common? Why is that happening? How does this compare to that?
Looking at events, trying to figure out what's important, what do I need to? What's changing? What might I need to alert the operator about. So AVA's autonomous in that respect. But also, I think very importantly, the second A, AVA is an assistant. The media talks endlessly about how AI is coming for all of our jobs. No, maybe someday, but I don't believe this current generation of technology is taking away any network engineer jobs, not yet. It's not ready.
What it is ready to be is a fantastic assistant that can help the network engineer, help the network operator deal with the complexity of their network and deal with the -- all the different tools that are available and all the just how hard it is to operate in a modern environment. So if you look inside AVA a little bit, AVA is constructed in layers at the lowest layer is NetDL, of course, NetDL is a state foundation for AVA. On top of NetDL, we run the AVA run time, which includes LLMs, standard off-the-shelf, a context engine that builds the prompting for the LLMs based on context elements that come from observing what's happening in the environment, a tool manager that helps manage all of the different things that AVA can do to get more information or even make changes to the network, talking to telemetry systems, obviously, CloudVision telemetry, but also third-party systems, policy and safety engine for the obvious reasons.
And finally, an MCP client so we can connect to arbitrary servers within an AI environment. And then on top of the AVA run time, we build specific agents for specific functions, state machines and prompting engines, history reducers that for each of the different areas of network operations. So I ask AVA, this is basic question-and-answer based on our knowledge of what's happening in our documentation in the user's network from bug database entries, CVEs and tech support history. All of that is available to ask AVA, monitoring, of course, always watching, like I said, either provisioning is an assistant for making configuration changes to network.
I think you saw in Fred's demo, an example of that. And finally, AVA troubleshooting. When things do go wrong, how do you put these pieces together, figure out what was happening, AVA troubleshooting is an assistant to help with responding to incidents of network issues. And so in summary, we have a multi-domain operating model across the entire estate, from the cloud to the campus, everything in between, with a single consistent OS, consistent state management, giving the customer consistent operations as a foundation for their environment.
And now what I'd like to do is turn this over to Todd to talk to you about how we harness this architectural foundation and these shared elements across the whole estate and really focus in on our strategy around campus. So please I would like to welcome Todd to the stage.
I appreciate it. This is an amazing event. My name is Todd Nightingale,
I appreciate it. This is an amazing event. My name is Todd
Nightingale. I'm the CEO here at Arista. I'm new, and I cannot tell you how excited I am to be here. Of course, at Investor Day here, but most importantly, here at Arista. It's been a phenomenal experience to get to look across the whole business from the technology to the go to market and of course, the operations.
One of the most amazing opportunities that we have in front of us is the campus TAM. And I'm not sure we always get to talk about it as much as we'd like to, but it is really -- it's an enormous and profitable business for us, and we are in so many ways just getting started. This is a part of the network that for years was the largest spend across the industry. And today, more than ever, it is ripe for modernization and truly Arista's flavor of modernization, the kind of differentiation that we provide.
There's a ton going on. There's an explosion of devices, thanks to IoT, but also a high diversity of smarter and smarter devices with more and more intense network needs, there's phenomenal focus right now on spend and OpEx across every industry, and that's putting pressure on net ops and the efficiency. And there is a real, real acceleration in the attack velocity. And when we're talking about CVEs, we have to talk about how we secure these networks and how we deliver 0 trust networking.
But all of this stuff it really adds up to a need in the market for the kind of innovation that Arista has always delivered. There is no longer really such a thing as a network that is not mission-critical. We think of mission-critical networks for military sites and Tier 1 hospitals. But I assure you, every hotel whose WiFi went down when guests need it think their network is misison critical.
Every retailer who couldn't take -- who couldn't process a payment believes their network is mission-critical. Every school during testing week, every university, every manufacturing plant, [ building for serg ], every network. It's 2025. Every network is mission-critical. And now more than ever, it's the time for us to take the reliability that Arista has always been known for, the foundation of EOS that's made that possible and bring it to the campus network. This isn't new Arista has been innovating in this area and pushing towards this surge in campus for years.
And this has been our strategy, delivering that truly always on network, truly bringing mission-critical always on networks to the entire industry. That is our focus in so many ways, that is who we are. And the campus, that also means focusing on zero trust networking, Jayshree, I think, alluded to our strategy in the best possible way, providing the best-in-class networking security, whether it's on the firewall side, segmentation, the NAC solution we've invested so much in, but not forcing our customers and locking them into a SASI solution or identity solution that only comes from us, giving them choice to partner with Apollo or Zscaler whoever they might pick.
That strategy is helping unlock this market for us and so is a focus on zero trust operations -- I'm sorry, on Zero Touch operations. This idea that you should be able to deliver a truly mission-critical network 9.999 and 9.9999 campus network without armies of people without having to be in the Fortune 100 with thousands and thousands of network engineers. It's building on the foundation of EOS to deliver that kind of reliability exactly what Ken is talking about but it's also building the technology we need to compete in this campus network where we are relatively a newcomer and reduce and remove all of those roadblocks so we can compete in every deal so that we can deliver Arista quality for every network.
And that innovation has been going on for years here. And it's an exciting time right now because we're really starting to see that unlock. The WiFi portfolio, this started as an acquisition 7 years ago, Mojo, it's been phenomenal innovation velocity here. And we are now sitting on one of the most complete portfolios in the world. We have not just indoor and outdoor APs, but high, medium, low offerings in all these areas, external antennas, no matter how sophisticated an RF deployment you want to put together or how simple you want that install to be we have hardware offerings for you, and they run at the highest reliability of any WiFi on the network.
WiFi is near and dear to my heart, and I'm telling you, I put this in my house, I have been compelled by the solution. Arista switching is second to none, but it didn't go -- data center switching doesn't drop into the campus by itself. There's been an enormous amount of innovation across a campus switching environment, bringing EOS to the campus. And it is an incredibly powerful solution. We've always had SP and large campus routing, but the Arista acquisition really finally closed the loop and completes the puzzle.
In fact, it's this continued investment that has filled in every hole in the campus portfolio and now leaves Arista with a complete networking stack. These are some of the key investments that we've made. AGNI is our NAC solution. For many years, we've been putting R&D into this. And AGNI is incredibly powerful. It provides network access control. It allows the Arista Networking Stack to leverage all the security posture assessment from third parties and provide best-in-class network security using Arista technology.
The WiFi acquisition I just talked about, and it's obviously incredibly powerful. But the Velo acquisition, and bringing SD-WAN, it's an incredibly important part of the total solution. And it's important because while Arista has had best-in-class routing for large campuses, connecting headquarter sites from continent to continent, some of the highest-performing routers in the world for service providers, et cetera, we have had a hole in our portfolio for the branch, for the small office, even the home teleworker. Arista fills that solution.
It allows us to connect those branches over broadband, bring Arista technology into every single site and for customers who want to make a single architecture choice for the network, now no matter whether they're running at the largest university campus in the world or they want to deploy it the smallest branch office or coffee shop, we have a solution from routing to wireless to switching for them. It's an incredibly powerful acquisition. I'm super excited they arrived the same day I did. It was like it's Kismet. The VeloCloud acquisition also brings something special to our go-to-market.
We've been investing in bringing up a channel, especially this year. We're starting to see solid momentum in that channel, both systems integrator and service provider. We've been expanding our direct sales motion and it's amazing to see the momentum, especially in large strategic accounts, downtown major New York Financial [indiscernible] MSP motion. They've done a ton of their business traditionally through managed service providers who provide an all-in-one managed offering, and it gives us really 2 phenomenal opportunities.
It gives us the opportunity to take those managed service offerings and bring all of the Arista technology through that and, of course, to take the Velo technology and bring that through this kind of burgeoning campus channel that we're building today on the Arista side, and have been building for years.
The key here is this investment, both in leveraging the EOS technology for the campus and developing new technology on that EOS platform for the campus. One of the biggest roadblocks in these large campus deployment, especially in education, but any multi-floor office has been stacking. We've put a lot of investment in delivering campus stacking, our virtual that is called SWAG. It's going to be coming out soon. This gives us an opportunity to deploy the highest density sites by being able to stack not just 10 but really -- not just 1 or 2, but dozens of switches together, manage them as a switch and really have that cluster of campus switches operating as a single switch. It's been a competitive issue for years.
now bringing stacking to the campus at Arista is enormously powerful. And from someone with new eyes, it's amazing to see the speed of -- the speed of innovation velocity on EOS that made this possible. So remarkable innovation and it removes an enormous road block in the market. One of the cornerstone differentiated features of EOS in the data center has always been hit list upgrades, the ability to upgrade the EOS firmware on a data center without taking any downtime. It's something that I had a hard time getting my head around when I first learned about it and to watch it in action is remarkable. So much so that I had to run test approved to myself, it was real, bringing hit list upgrades to both wired and wireless means that we no longer have to consider for planned downtime and outages due to waiting to upgrade as bugs and security vulnerabilities become too critical, hit list upgrades means we can realize that promise of zero-touch operation that we can maintain the most secure software on campus networks around the world. and then we can do it while maintaining perfect uptime, delivering on the promise of Arista, the most reliable mission-critical network in the world.
We've seen an enormous amount of investment and focus on this concept of Zero Trust operations. And Ken mentioned it, CloudVision is remarkable it's a remarkable tool that allows you to manage data center and campus network, something that no one else in the industry has, and I really don't think anyone else in the industry will have anytime soon. CloudVision and the whole suite of management products at Arista have flexibility. You can deploy them in air gap networks but they deploy in the cloud with some of the simplest and most straightforward functionality.
But NetDL and that that idea of seeing the complete state of an entire network in a single platform gives enormous power to network operators today, but the opportunity that we have with AVA to use that data lake to deliver truly differentiated AI assist is phenomenal. So I'm excited to bring Ken back on the stage and give us a little sneak peek of AVA.
All right. So this is a very quick early technology demo of what AVA can do. And the scenario here starts with just sort of a chatbot style interface. But again, it's not a chatbot underneath, but we do route the question of the right agent based on the content. And so here, the question is what can you tell me about Allis' device and u is misspelled. One of the things I love about LLM is they just do not care how you spell okay? They just -- you can spell any way you want, they figure it out.
So we typo'd in our demo and hey, it's work, so whatever. So what can tell me about Allis' device, ask AVA understands this calls for some telemetry, makes a telemetry query and brings up a bunch of information. I've -- you can see the actual screen kind of underneath. I've kind of called out what I think is kind of the key information in the larger window, so I try to make it readable. But here are some details about the device, he's the host name, here are the IP addresses that are in use. There's a MAC address, and here's how it's connected to the network and offers you some things you want to check on this or check on that. Actually, it can't reach the Internet.
Oh, okay, this is an incident. We created an incident record invoke, the AVA trouble shooting assistant. And the AVA troubleshooter wants to run the following action, ping from this location of that location. And once the operator allows that action, we look at the resulting traffic and see that sure enough, nothing is getting through from the switch to the Internet. So it's not Allis' device, it's the issue. The problem is actually wider spread. And then we -- there's a little bit of a back and forth here. I've kind of skipped some of the details.
But after doing some other pings, trace routes looking at some configs, troubleshooting AVA concludes. I've reviewed the access list configuration on a leaf switch that's involved in the flow. It appears there's an access list named Rogue Device list that contains a deny statement for the following subnet since Allis' device has the IP address, it has, it falls within the denied range. This is likely the reason the device can't reach the Internet.
And then there goes on to offer more things and there's a further conversation. The point of this is that the troubleshooting assistant, I think, is going to really change the game for how quickly and easily people can resolve these kinds of problems. I want to leave you with here, the Arista way. Everything we do is based on our architectural foundation and our culture of innovation. The most important thing, again, is that thing at the top. My commitment to you and to all of our customers, we are never putting your network at risk so we can ship some shiny new feature sooner, okay? We're always taking the time it takes, whatever that is, to make sure that when we ship it, it actually works.
Thank you very much.
Thanks, Ken and Todd. So we'll take a quick 15-minute break, allow you to stretch your legs, grab some coffee. The restrooms are right around the corner as well to your right when you exit the back doors. And we be back for a deep dive into AI networking and how the power of Ethernet is transforming AI networks, with Hugh and Andy. So a quick break.
[Break]
What an amazing group of AI thought leaders and speaking about thought leaders, it is my great honor to welcome on stage, Andy Bechtolsheim to talk about AI and Ethernet networking.
I don't need to tell you what a unique moment of history we're in. And wait a minute, this is the wrong slides.
Sorry, guys, wrong slides. This is embarrassing. No, analyst day slides, not internal slides. How did this happen? Not possible.
Great. I'm not Andy. My name is Hugh Holbrook. I'm the Chief Development Officer at Arista. I mean it's really an honor to talk to you all. So thank you all for coming. I'm here to talk about AI and cloud networking. I spent a bunch of time both on internal development and talking to customers and in standards bodies, working on AI and from platforms and network design to software. And so I want to tell you about what we're doing.
First of all, we've got the Arista Etherlink portfolio, which is really a suite of technologies, both hardware and software technologies to try to make AI better. And this is for all parts of the network, the front end, the back end, the scale-out, the scale-up and the scale across. So it's platforms and software purpose-built for AI to try to make AI better, and that's Etherlink. In terms of the platforms, just on the hardware side, we have a range of switches from the 7060s, which are kind of targeting scale out and scale up. These are the lowest power switches with the lowest power, most reliable, lowest-cost optics. We've got the 7800 high radix modular chassis, deep buffer, high featured, useful in the scale across and also in the scale out dimension then that we have the distributed Ethelink spine, the 7700. These are kind of the 3 major product families in the Etherlink portfolio.
So one thing I want to talk about is the front-end network. So there's a front-end network and a back-end network is kind of like the world of AI networking kind of gets bifurcated that way. The back-end network is the network that interconnects just the GPU to GPU connectivity. It's today, it's almost all RDMA, typically RoCE. So it's high-speed GPUs, doing direct memory access to GPUs, that's the back-end network. Also in the back-end network is the scale-up network, which is just inside the chassis.
Just GPUs talking to GPUs inside the chassis or inside a rack. That scale up. Scale-out is the back-end, GPUs talking to GPUs. And then there's a front-end network, which is kind of the lifeblood that feeds the AI compute fabric, which is, I would say, equally important and actually quite a bit more complicated than the scale out fabric in terms of the functionality. So the front end is kind of the gateway, and it connects to storage, compute, cloud WAN and both the back end but also the front-end performance is critical for both training and performance.
So if you look at what front-end network does is it connects the AI fabric to all these different things that are part of AI jobs, local storage, general-purpose compute, cloud storage, the Internet, the corporate network. And I asked -- of course, used AI to help me like explain some of these connections and why they're important. So the first thing I did was ask this query. Like where is the storage for a RAG? Like a RAG is a database that is used as part of inference to get real-time data.
And like the first thing you note is that like when I ask this question, it searches 94 sites. Like this is Gemini. It runs out and it searches 94 sites to in real time, get answer my query. This is I need good Internet access, right, for inference, like I have to have solid Internet access from wherever I'm doing the inference from my AI cluster out to the Internet, and this is going through maybe it's Equinix, maybe it's going straight to Google, maybe it's going to Azure, whoever my provider is or maybe it's going across my internal network.
Now the thing I was actually trying to do was like show this, which is like well RAGs are typically stored either in cloud storage or maybe in local storage. But if I'm going to cloud storage, my AI inference job has got to connect to GCP or Azure or Amazon via S3 to get to that cloud storage with all the protocols security, VLANs, route advertisement, all of that stuff that's necessary to connect to those cloud providers. If I'm doing inference with KV cache offloading, as a technology you might have heard of, where I'm -- I run a query, I'm partway through it. And then like a pause and I get a cup of coffee or I just think a little bit and ask my next question. And
that GPU is not going to sit there idle waiting for me to come to the next query, it has to get loaded with the context of somebody else's like Andy's next query or Ken's next query. And so there's a whole bunch of contacts and it's gigabytes and gigabytes of data that have to get paged out of the GPU and into storage, and that's going into local storage, which is typically not on the back-end GPU to GPU network. It's typically connected on the front-end network. And it's a storage cluster, which has different needs.
The storage servers may have different requirements, different kind of switches are necessary. General purpose compute is super important for training general-purpose compute is not where you're doing the compute for the training per se, but it's where you're preprocessing the data. I have reams and reams and reams of data. I'm sure you've heard that like LLMs are trained on trillions of words of examples or trillions of tokens of examples. And like that data all has to get preprocessed somewhere using like tons of algorithms, and it's coming from the whole corpus of the Internet or it's my internal customer database, or my engineering database or whatever I'm training or fine-tuning my models on like that is going through a general purpose.
Compute. And then at the same time, my -- I may have data that I'm accessing, maybe these are regs, maybe it's queries to my internal databases. Maybe I'm doing agenetic AI, where I'm going to like have an agent that is actually going and doing something inside my enterprise. It's got to reach out to my enterprise network. That's probably not in the same data center. I may well have confidentiality, security processes that require that data to be hosted in my corporate database or maybe it is just naturally stored there.
It could be distributed across my corporate WAN. So you need access from the AI network to the corporate network. That may have security. It may be access protocols, I may have VLAN access. I got segmentation. I have gateways I'm going through. I've got firewalls. All of this is the purview of the front-end network. So in this kind of space where I have to access the front-end network, there's all these protocols that we've been developing for EOS that like are part of the solution for the front-end network, multi-tenancy is super important. Like there are lots of clients on my network, and I have to keep their traffic separate.
I mean, this is obvious if I'm a service provider, like I'm Microsoft or something like that, I have different customers. And of course, I have to keep their traffic separate. Security of what I'm sending into the AI cannot have -- Microsoft can't have their customers. I don't know who it is, customer X and customer Y, Boeing or Walmart like their data can't cross, right? They have to be kept separate and they have to be kept separate all the way to the WAN.
High availability, extremely important, keeping things alive, keeping access on my gateways, keeping all the connections running, availability of the AI traffic is important. All of this WAN traffic going to Azure going to different gateways, I have to do route advertisements. I'm steering traffic. There's MPLS involved in many cases. This is because I'm accessing what the Internet is, what my metro network is, what my corporate access network is and my AI fabric is touching all of that. Confidentiality is important, and it can happen in a couple of different ways. It can be segmentation by separating traffic in different ways, and I'll talk about that. It can be encryption. It could be encrypted on the endpoints or it could be encrypted in gateways if my endpoints aren't doing encryption.
Many times inside the fabric, there's high scale, right? There can be many, many GPUs. So doing scale right, both route scale outside the data center, when I'm talking to the Internet, policy scale, if I'm doing filtering is important. And then just like ECMP scale, if I'm going very wide because I'm building -- connecting a lot of GPUs through a lot of Tier 2 switches. And then observability at scale is important with all of this. So these are all the set of features, observability, telemetry, routing that come together in the AI fabric, like there is a part of the network that back-end network, which is relatively simple in terms of protocols and there is sophistication there. In terms of routing, it's not the most complex routed environment but that has to connect to the rest of the world.
And that is not a simple connection. Segmentation is something I've talked about, and this is just keeping different customers, be they actually my customers or be it just different corporate clients that have different security profiles like my finance data has to be kept separate from my research data has to be kept separate from my engineering data. I may have siloed projects where I can't be crossing things. We have multiple tools for doing this. [ EVPN ] helps with seamless provisioning, standing up subclusters of GPUs within a data center and then can preserve that segmentation in the scale across fabric going from data center to data center, if I have my job spanning multiple data centers, either for performance or for resiliency.
We can do IP address segmentation, we have multiple techniques to do that that we've been developing over the years, we have customers deploying those to be able to like do the segmentation without having the overhead of a VX LAN header on the packet. We're using dot1x, which is technology that we've been developing and have continued to develop for GPUs to be able to identify what job a GPU is from or as part of, so that we can put it in the right network segment. And then encryption can be important in the network, especially if I've got data that is segmented somehow within the data center, but then when I leave a data center, I don't necessarily have the same control or the same comfort about the confidentiality of the data on those links and I want to have [indiscernible] encryption many enterprises and larger clouds have policies that when things leave the data center, it has to be encrypted one way or another.
And the way to guarantee that is to have link-by-link encryption. So this trusted segmentation is important functionality that we've been building. So as I said, that segmentation happens within the data center, the secure connectivity happens within the data center, but larger jobs and larger AI clusters are now spanning a single building or a single site across a region because I can only get so much power, so much space in a single region.
So it's not uncommon to have multiple data centers within a region talking together. And all of that multi-tenancy, all that segmentation to keep customer A from customer B or to keep finance separate from engineering has to be extended to the WAN. It also has to be extended to the other data center. It has to be extended to Amazon like I have to keep those separate paths of traffic going to Amazon or going to S3, all the way that I'm going to Azure, all the way that I'm doing it.
The security, whatever security I've got, whatever confidential I've got, that has to be extended all the way through this, scale out from the scale out to the scale across fabric. I want to talk today about [ stanz ], which is a secure traffic analyzer. It's a feature that we have developed that is doing telemetry at the host at the top of rack switch and at the spine. So we've got telemetry from AI agent running in the host. We've got telemetry being exported from the first hop switch and the laptop switch. It's the sending host and the receiving host and also at the spine of the network that's gathering information about what jobs are running, what hosts are running, the performance, flows, pulling that data together, putting it in CloudVision. So we get data about, I don't know if you can see the tiny little box here, but like about security applications, what tenants are running, what hosts are running, how they're performing, tunnels, et cetera.
And that all is pulled together, and it -- that is a foundation to build upon this secure segmentation or to extend the secure segmentation to do all of the traffic management that we need to do to build a reliable, solid performance AI network, detecting misconfigurations of the endpoint is doing a good job of load balancing, identifying congestion and hotspots, being able to report those, steer around them, being able to manage our tunnels, our peers, if we're connecting to an Equinix or to another router in the Internet, get in my corporate network or outside detecting DDoS attacks, microbursts and then connecting to storage. So all of this is the foundation of the secure traffic analyzer builds and then is built and then lets us implement these things to deliver better value.
I wanted to talk briefly about platforms. Andy will talk about this. I'm going to go really fast. We have a suite of platforms for the Etherlink portfolio, and each one is optimized for a different role or a different set of roles in the AI fabric. And that diversity is valuable. We've got single-chip systems, typically 1 or 2 or maybe 4 [indiscernible] for scale-up and scale-out fabrics that are optimized for power, cost and speed. We've got the chassis for the largest Tier 2 networks. These can be useful as a spine in a scale-out fabric or as an edge device or as a kind of central layer in the scale across network, that scale across network is the network that connects multiple sites when I have a regional network of data centers put together.
The DES systems, the 7700 for rapid seamless AI back end. We have these deployed at some customers. It has the kind of attributes of the data plane attributes of a single router, a single device and the load balancing of that, but in a distributed fashion that can scale out to 256 or more top-of-rack switches and support networks of 4,000 and more GPUs. And then we have edge devices and a deep portfolio of edge devices that can play that role at the edge of the data center. These have deep buffering, routing, MPLS support, large routing tables, tunnel capacity, built-in encryption support for connecting the front-end clusters can talk clusters to clusters together, connecting clusters to the cloud.
And then we have more than 1 multiple, shall I say and I can't say much about them custom designs for scale up. And these are designs inside rack scale designs. This is an example of something that is representative of the kind of thing we're building. So we have a broad set of platforms that are optimized for a range of AI use cases. I want to talk briefly about the Ultra Ethernet consortium which is something that I was personally quite involved in. I chaired the technical advisory committee. I'm on the steering committee and the Ultra Ethernet published the 1.0 spec back in June. They're continuing to do work.
But the Ultra Ethernet consortium was a consortium founded by these 10 companies at the top, among them was Arista in the founding set of members. There are now more than 100 members. The goal of the Ultra Ethernet consortium is to advance Ethernet in the service of HPC and AI, like Ethernet is already very successful in AI and HPC networks. The goal is to take anything that makes it like that we can do to make it better and do that. There's more than 100 member companies, 1,000 participants. Arista is quite active in it and was a founding steering committee member.
The L3 Ethernet is supported by switches. There's a lot that happens in the NIC in L3 Ethernet. There is some functionality in the switch. Just an example here is packet trimming, which is functionality that we have put into our switch to support L3 Ethernet, it's technology that will make the transport protocol, be able to detect lost packets faster and more reliably. L3 Ethernet itself, the L3 Ethernet Transport is a standards-based transport protocol for AI that does out-of-order delivery, congestion control and security. This will make things better. There will be other transport protocols as well. This is not the only one, but this is going to be, I think, one that will have some impact starting later this year and more so into 2026, I expect.
Our 2025 products, specifically the 7800, 7280s also will have support for the L3 Ethernet capabilities that are needed to run the L3 Ethernet transport. We have a broad range of merchant silicon that we use. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on it. But again, like the platforms and each of these is kind of foundational in the different platforms and they're optimized for different use cases, highest scale, a perfect scheduled fabric, powering cost optimized, super low latency optimized. And we use these judiciously when we need to, to build the best platforms that our customers want.
I want to talk about a a metric that I've started to call TTFJ or time to first job, which is a really important metric for our customers. Time to first job is what I consider the time between when all my equipment shows up on the dock and is ready to be built into a data center and when I run my first job. That is provisioning the switches, testing everything, testing the software, making sure that I'm getting good performance end-to-end debugging cables, figuring out what fans aren't spinning, making sure that all the -- everything is inserted properly, it's a huge problem, and this is super, super focused for these customers because having those GPUs somewhere between the dock and the first job is just burning money like it can be really expensive at a street price of estimated $30,000 just to pick a number, if I have 10,000 GPUs, it's $300 million.
It's like a very expensive asset that's sitting there waiting to get it running. And there's like no budget once it's up for downtime. And the problem here is that like new switches come at the same time as new GPUs, NICs, optics, everything comes up together. And we need a super solid foundation. The features have to be ready. They have to be debugged when the silicon is ready. That is what we are totally focused on, that's what we've been very good at so far.
And I think that's a compelling advantage that we have here at Arista. Things that we've done to optimize for time to first job quality, just our relentless focus on quality. I'm sure you've heard Ken talk about quality or me or Jayshree, super important to us, telemetry, just visibility, what is happening, what is going on? Why isn't this working? Super important to have the visibility, [ fine grain ] visibility. We have many, many features that do that. The other thing we do is we provide deep sharing at the platform layer in our code across silicon families, on things like optics and [ find management ], platform commands and telemetry. This is something you cannot bolt on after the fact and it results in better time to first job.
And I've just got a picture that shows this. So if you look at the left, and this is kind of like how I always did things before. There's like the gray stuff is the software that's shared. It's like routing and BGP and [ SNP ] bunch of shared stuff, and there's a bunch of stuff that's specific to the silicon, programming TCAM, programming ACLEs, powering things on, managing the PHYs, initializing silicon pulling counters, like all this stuff. What we did at Arista was we said, you know what, there's a bunch of stuff in there that actually can be shared typically. Like this comes in an SDK from the vendor, but we can share more of it.
Pulling counters, I don't think different code for different chips. Sure, the counter registers are different. But doing that efficiently, storing [indiscernible] memory using DMA engines to pull the chips like storing it, making it visible, we can do that in a shared way. And we did that across the board, with fine grain state machines, programming the ACLEs, programming the TCAMs, the very lowest level here, this white stuff needs to be unique. The registers on the chips are different.
But we can share more of the code than what's typically done and we can do it across vendors that compete with each other. And of course, like Broadcom and Marvell and Intel and Cavium like they're not going to share a code like their competitors, right? But we can inside Arista, we can share that code. And that gives us better tested code Day 1 when we started deploying our switches because we already tested it on the previous platforms. [ Jericho 2 ] can be shared with Tomahawk, can be shared with Trident. We can share code there. That gives us better quality, faster features, one team working on the same code base and the result is better and it improves our time to first job.
So I think that is our -- what I would call our architectural advantage or one of our architectural advantages in addition to what Ken talked about, that is like less talked about, but I think is equally important, honestly. And then I want to just briefly talk in the blue box. This is my last slide, and then I'll hand over to Andy. The Arista blue blocks, as Jayshree talked about is kind of -- there's a white box, which you know about. The blue block is the Arista version of it. And it gives you a choice of OS. I can run EOS, Sonic, FBOSS or any of those or variants of them or multiple of them, if I want. It's built on top of NetDI, which Jayshree talked about, which is used to validate not only the hardware but the low-level firmware, like the threshold for power, the optics tuning, the programming of the fan speed algorithm.
These are tricky system-level components that are hard to get right that can fail in the field. They can fail in the field years after, they can fail when a vendor makes what seems like a transparent change or a process change, and we need to be able to detect those support that. We're hardening components. This is all fully -- the blue box is fully supported by the EOS software team, hardware team, diags team. You've got the backing of Arista on it and the choice to run the operating system that you want on top of it. So Arista's Etherlink products are optimized for AI in many ways that I talked about.
And I believe that we have an architectural advantage for AI that gives us an improvement on time to first job, from features, quality, software architecture, blue box. That is everything I have, and I'm now going to hand it back to Andy to tell you about a lot of the details underpinning what I talked about today. And what Andy has to say is like totally fascinating. So thank you very much.
Okay. Is this working. All right. So I want to talk to you about the truly extraordinary opportunity that's ahead of us. I mean you know the numbers, the CapEx numbers are going up every day apparently. But if you think about it, we're still at the early innings of this journey, where not just the workloads are scaling and getting bigger exponentially but the models themselves are evolving. And suddenly, it's not 10,000 GPUs per cluster of 100,000, but it's 1 million. And the requirements in terms of how you implement these very large-scale data centers including how the network supports these very large data centers are already paramount.
A few years ago, typically, AI cluster was 4,000, 8,000 16,000 GPUs use, InfiniBand did that, well InfiniBand stops kind of at that level. I don't if you know a customer that's not planning on hundreds of thousands and, in some cases, million of GPUs that are tightly interconnected in a scale-out network. Now the second thing that's changing here is that the bandwidth per GPU or XPU is going up dramatically, with each generation.
So the numbers here are forward-looking statements, meaning the next version of XPU, perhaps there's a 12.8-terabit scale up and 800-gigabit scale out, the 1 after that we double that, the one after that will double or quadruple that. If you do the math on a per sort of cluster basis, you're going from like 100 petabits to 100 exabits [indiscernible] that's 1,000x bigger within 1 campus sort of data center, think multiple gigawatts.
Now as Hugh was talking about, we do primarily use 3 silicon architectures to support these various requirements. Starting on the lower left is the Tomahawk Ultra, which is a brand-new chip that is the lowest latency Ethernet switch in the -- on the planet, 250 nanoseconds. So it's really custom optimized design for scale-up applications. The Tomahawk type of chip that we're shipping Tomahawk 5 today, Tomahawk 6 in the lab, Tomahawk 7 is coming shortly that can span 10,000 of XPUs in a 2-tier network, which very efficiently and [indiscernible] architecture, which is by far the most scalability of all and we have successfully deployed in both the modular chassis form factor as well as to these aggregated switches.
Now talking about what we can contribute here and what's really important to our customers is, number one, power reduction. So the power bills, of course, you know what they are, but the real issue is whatever power the network consumes takes away from the power level for the GPUs, which make the money, right? So basically, the network is where there was a tax on the delivery of the cycles that the power is supposed to perform.
So every 1% power improvement on network means in a large data center, like one that has, I don't know, 100,000 chips, you get 1% more GPUs. So first step is the latest switch silicon is always more power efficient than the previous generation. And thus, there's this incredible pressure to get new silicon into the market in volume as quickly as possible in sort of a ramp that nobody has ever seen before. The second thing has to do with the transmission of bits, copper cables have essentially 0 power, but they only work within the rack, beyond the rack, you need optics, and there's a lot of emphasis on how it can reduce power for optics.
We have been an industry leader in promoting the adoption of linear optics known as, LPO, linear pluggable optics. And we now have multiple customers that have deployed this thing successfully in volume. The short summary is the linear optics is 1/3 the power of a full [indiscernible] optics in the next generation, and thus, you can get 3x as many optics if you go linear compared to the full retail.
Now another factor that's a little harder to explain is that the larger the [ racks ] of the switches, the fewer layers you need in the network, the less power it consumes. So we're all into these maximum fan-out radix kind of networks to accommodate most building kind of deployments in 2 tiers, rather than 3 tiers. And the final one, liquid cooling, saves power because there's no fans. It's between 5% and 10% of the system that was depending on temperature, and that's an important step.
Talking about liquid cooling. This is not a product announcement, but more like a directional step of what's coming. We're designing 100% liquid cooled switches that plug straight into an [indiscernible] 3 style rack. You see the picture on the right is the rear of the chassis, plugs on bus par, the liquid connections, and that's it. It's like a line card in a big chassis.
So a lot of our development is focused in this direction. In addition, we are designing a fully liquid cooled switch racks that offer up to 32 payload of these fabric switches with patch panels and management switches Separately, we have engaged with multiple customers on multiple projects on custom switch designs for their custom AI racks, which are customer specific. And these are these very large 500-kilowatt [ go into ] megawatt class racks that have a lot of internal switches for scale-up in particular. And they use copper cables internally for the highest -- at the lowest power and highest bandwidth connectivity. So these projects we're doing in very close conversion with our largest customers and the whole focus is to minimize the design to volume deployment.
One slide on pluggable optics. I don't know how much you followed the market there, but there is endless debate what's the best optics and lowest power. Well, if you could eliminate the retimed DSP, it is lower power. And it's surprisingly also more reliable. There's a few components that can fail, and we do see a lot fewer link flaps with linear optics than traditional retime. But the most important thing is it is the lowest power optics. There is no other optics that is lower power, including co-package, which is essentially the same components, but just placed in different part of the chassis. So what people like about pluggables is that it supports any kind of technology from multiple vendors, including future microwave ideas and [indiscernible] and whatever comes next, whereas if you do co-package, you're tied into a vertically integrated single vendor stack.
Now going back to the most important request from our customers is they're spending too much money and they're asking us to reduce TCO, it's true. So the way we can help us minimizing time to volume for next-generation silicon, we're all in on liquid cooling to reduce power, eliminating fan power, supporting the linear pluggable optics to reduce power and cost, increasing rack density, which reduces data center footprint and related costs and most importantly, optimizing these fabrics for the use case. So what we call the purpose-built AI there is fabric around Ethernet technology, is to really optimize AI application performance, which is the ultimate measure for the customer in both the scale-up and the scale-out domains.
Some of this includes full switch customization for customers; other cases, it includes the power and cost optimization. But we have a large part of our hardware engineering department working on the things on this slide, and I'm spending all my time on this topic here. And this is all the slides I had. So thank you very much.
Hello everyone. Very nice to see you. Always a tough act to follow, Andy, but I'll give it my best shot. So thank you for being here for the last part of the today's official agenda before the panel. So the whole thing I'll focus on in these slides is giving you a different perspective on where we see momentum for Arista. And so just we were talking at the break actually and some people are mentioning do you ever step back and just realize how far you've come as a company.
And coincidentally, we do have this slide in here to show the momentum since the IPO in 2014. You can take a look through, but I think that to say there's 52x market cap, and that's actually higher if you take it today versus the August kind of cutoff point we did, 15x the TAM. So very excited to see the results to date. But what I would like to leave you with on this slide is to leave you with the thought of the tenacity and the conviction for Arista to execute when they have the intention when it comes to pure-play networking.
Just a quick summary of some of the key financial metrics for you over the last 5 years. You can see which ones you resonate to. My 2 favorite children in this slide or if you look at gross margin and operating margin, you can see even though you have the fluctuation and the volatility in the gross margin during different times depending on what's happening with mix and inventory, you still see our ability to deliver operating margin expansion. And I think that's a good testament to the fact that we have a very efficient and effective business model that we're very proud of.
So now let's get into the different aspects of building momentum. The first slide I have for you here is to kind of set the foundation when it comes to TAM. so Jayshree had mentioned at the beginning, the TAM in the sense of crossing that $100 billion mark as we get to 2029. You can see in the last 2 years, we've had a 75% increase in TAM, very much bolstered by the AI conversation, but equally so in kind of the campus branch segment of the TAM. And so together, we're looking at $105 billion by 2029. Super excited by this foundation to give us the growth foundation that we need going forward.
So now let's talk about building momentum in cloud and AI. I'll start with an external view first and then talk about Arista's ability to deliver in this market. So I like the 650 -- AI is such a big space is all kinds of projections that you kind of need a framework to gravitate to. One of them is the 650 group framework. I like that talks about different waves of how AI is going to come in, and you can see kind of the dollar values coming in, Going from the foundational models and content creation to agentic AI growing to $1 trillion between '25 and '28 and then Wave 4 being autonomous transportation and robotics, humanoid, another $1 trillion, 2027 onward. So even if these are indicative of the opportunities, we can see that Arista is very well set up to to play in this space.
And I'll give you 3 reasons why I think Arista is very well positioned, perhaps uniquely positioned to maximize our potential in this space. You can also just go more specific to the cloud kind of data center infrastructure like CAGR CapEx being about 60% '25 forward. So pretty robust numbers no matter which ones you look at. But the 3 reasons I'd give you why we're uniquely positioned to take advantage of this space and to do very well. The first one is all the stuff that was spoken by Jayshree and Hugh and Ken and Andy in the sense of our product portfolio, our software capabilities, our net scale out, scale up, scale across, very excited about what we have to offer from product and solutions. The second one is Andy talked about the thought leadership when it comes to minimizing or optimizing the total cost of ownership for the AI data center build-outs.
He talked about the silicon. He talked about liquid cooling, linear optics, rack density and optimizing Ethernet fabrics. So very much a playbook we can use with our customers. And the third 1 is that great set of AI partners we announced this week in the sense of working with them and the community. So 3 really compelling reasons, I think, to say why Arista is going to do very well in this space going forward. So now we can switch to equally as important, how we're going to build momentum in enterprise. This one is not as cyclical. It's not as volatile and not as big. It's a little bit slower to grow, but quite a steady in our portfolio. Very excited for Todd and his ideas he shared with you earlier on campus specifically.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Analyst/Investor Day - Arista Networks, Inc.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Analyst/Investor Day - Arista Networks, Inc.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Arista stellt sich als Plattformanbieter für "Centers of Data" (Arista 2.0) dar: integrierte Hardware (Etherlink: 7800/7700/7060), Blue Box/NetDI-Hardwarediagnostik, einheitliches OS (EOS) mit NetDL-Datenlake und AVA als AIOps-Assistent. Fokus: Time‑to‑First‑Job (TTFJ) reduzieren, TCO (Power/Optics) senken und Wachstum über AI & Campus vorantreiben.
📈 Strategische Highlights
- Produkt: Etherlink-Portfolio für Front‑/Back‑end-AI, High‑radix‑Chassis (7800) und spezialisierte Switch‑Families; Betonung auf Energieeffizienz (linear optics, flüssigkeitsgekühlt) zur Senkung der Betriebskosten.
- Software: EOS + NetDL schaffen konsistenten State; AVA (Autonomous Virtual Assist) demonstriert Automatisierung von Provisioning und Troubleshooting, reduziert Deploy‑Zeit von Wochen auf Stunden/Minuten.
- GTM: VeloCloud‑Integration stärkt Campus/Branch‑TAM; Ausbau Channel & MSP‑Motion; Partnerschaften (z.B. NVIDIA, Security‑Partner) statt All‑in‑one Security‑Stack.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Management nennt konkrete Wachstumsziele: Commitment von $8.75 Mrd. für laufendes Jahr und Ziel von $10.5 Mrd. für 2026; Campus (inkl. Velo) soll von ~$0.75–0.8 Mrd. auf $1.25 Mrd. wachsen (+~60%); AI‑Segment prognostiziert +60–80% (Beispiel: $1.5 Mrd. = +80%). Arista meldet #1 Stellung in 800G (Q2 2025) und skaliert NetDI (300.000 Diagnosetests/Tag, ≈30.000 Mannjahre US‑Aufwand).
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Analyst Day positioniert Arista klar als integrierten Anbieter für große AI‑ und Campus‑Netzwerke mit differenzierter HW‑SW‑Diag‑Strategie und ambitionierten Umsatzzielen. Positiv: starke Produkt‑/Software‑Kombination und TCO‑Fokus. Kritische Risiken bleiben Execution (Lieferung/Shipment), Supply‑Chain sowie Konkurrenz durch White‑box‑Player und Cisco.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
[Presentation]
That was a great video. Welcome, everybody, to the Arista Networks fireside chat at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference. I have the privilege of introducing Todd Nightingale, who's the President and COO; and Martin Hull, who's the VP and General Manager of Cloud and AI Platforms. My name is Mike Ng, and I cover Arista and networking equipment here at Goldman Sachs. We have about 35 minutes for today's presentation. First and foremost, thank you so much to both of you for being here today. It's really a pleasure.
Awesome.
Great. So Todd, September marks 2 months since you joined Arista as COO and President. Now that you've been able to spend a little bit of time here, what opportunities at Arista excite you the most? Where do you anticipate you'll be spending most of your time? And maybe you can talk a little bit about the video that we just saw as well.
Sure. Yes. Super excited to be here. Thank you. This is my first conference. I'm super interested in all the discussions we've had today. I come from a networking background. I ran the Meraki business at Cisco and the Enterprise and Cloud business there as well, campus, data center, cloud. I guess for me, there's really two enormous opportunities in front of us. And I'm sure with the video and all of the excitement today, we'll be talking a lot about AI, which is the first really big one and the whole industry is talking about it.
But for us, there's also an enormous opportunity in the campus. Arista for years has delivered truly best-in-class data center networking. And our DNA is delivering the most reliable networks in the world. It's 2025, and the time has come to bring that like true reliability to every network. It doesn't have to be your most mission-critical data center in the world. Every network is mission-critical now, whether it's at a hospital, government, school, an enterprise. These are all mission-critical networks, including the one we're broadcasting on today and it's time to bring that Arista value proposition with the rest of network, that is incredibly exciting to me.
The second one would be reaching more customers with our traditional focus in cloud and data center, we've been able to become market leaders and really focused most of our go-to-market effort on really the Global 2000, but there's so much more TAM when it comes to campus and the rest of that space. And we're just scratching the surface of that opportunity, yet we have so much expertise, so much IP to leverage there.
So I'm super excited about that. Of course, I'll be focusing a large part of my time also on the manufacturing and supply chain because the demand -- as the demand has been surging for so long and we see it to continue, we're focused on making sure we can deliver. So that's what's exciting.
It's a great overview. And maybe we can dig into those things a little bit more. Last quarter, Arista raised its revenue guidance 25% year-on-year. And you really saw broad momentum across the entire business. AI, classic, enterprise, both on the data center and the campus side. So I was wondering if you could just talk about these drivers in a little bit more detail, what's informing your confidence for the rest of the year? And where maybe there possibly be opportunities for upside as well.
Well, maybe I'll start on the campus and Martin will talk a little more about AI. But we've been targeting $750 million campus number we raised back to $800 million. And that's exciting momentum for us, not only because we're moving faster and we're reaching more of the market, but because we completed the VeloCloud acquisition, that completes the campus portfolio for us, meaning there isn't really a campus network that we can't compete for now, WiFi, switching, large site traditional routing and now SD-WAN backed with a NAC network security solution on the back end.
With a very complete offering, we can really go after that and raising that number and now looking forward to how we continue to drive growth, not just on the revenue side, but in customer acquisition, new logos, driving more revenue diversification, that's exciting. And from an enterprise point of view, reaching new TAM. Yes, it's awesome.
Yes. And on the AI and cloud side, we came into this year talking about a $750 million AI back-end number. We also talked about a $750 million incremental front end, and that is the pull-through from the additional business there. We started at the beginning of the year talking about 5 customers. We pared that back to 4. But we've reiterated that $750 million plus $750 million and in the last earnings, we talked about having 25 to 30 incremental customers who are AI customers, large enterprises, cloud specialty providers, AI providers, neo clouds, [indiscernible] without disclosing names. We might have seen some of them in the video. But that gives us the confidence that the growth through this year continues, which is why we then increase the guidance for the rest of the year, and we're increasingly confident about how the AI business is playing out between the large, largest customers and then the next set of large customers after that.
Great. Arista is often called and viewed as a best-of-breed solution certainly in the high-end data center networking market. And EOS is commonly cited as something that's been a point of competitive differentiation for Arista. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about how Arista EOS differentiates itself versus ODMs and white box solutions? And how does this also extend from the data center into the campus as well?
Yes. I mean we are one of the only, if not the only, pure-play networking company now. So the Arista EOS extensible operating system is the crown jewels. It's the heart of everything we do from a software perspective that runs on our switches, our routers, our campus products. And unlike some other companies out there, when we talk about EOS, it's a single image that runs across the data center to the AI to the campus to the branch.
It's the same source code, it runs fundamentally the same way on everything we ship. That differentiates us, but only if it's a quality product, right? Having the same software everywhere doesn't help you if it's buggy or unreliable. So one of the fundamentals about everything we do is quality first, and then we can add features and worry about shipping time, but it has to be quality first.
If you get the chance watch the video from Ken Duda talking about how quality is in everything he does. From an engineering down, the auto test infrastructure that we have that makes sure that we don't only test new versions of software. We test every single release of software every single day in our auto test environment. Because of that, we don't make mistakes. People don't get tired and go home. We have compute clusters running our own software, doing chaos tests.
That software quality then makes it way into the shipping product. I can't tell you how many times I've had a conversation with the customer and they say, "Yes, yes, I've heard that before from everybody else. Everybody else says their quality is best." Hopefully, we will then win that customer, I go back a few years later. They say, "okay, now I believe you." So it's become that reputation in the industry that our quality is the highest. And that comes from software, it's EOS. Did that address the question or compared to ODMs, right? Without software, we don't have anything. I'm the hardware guy, right? It's software first.
The one thing I'd add here is these two things feed off each other. There's exactly one version of EOS. That means that all of the investment that has ever been made in that test suite is -- has been compounding upon itself for years and years. And from the outside in, the validation, the verification of this stuff is it's truly amazing. That quality focus baked into the DNA of Arista is real.
And on the hardware side of the equation, what is Arista doing on the hardware side or the silicon side that might contribute to your market share leadership. Obviously, you're working with Broadcom as one of your merchant silicon providers. What are the advantages of doing that?
Yes. As a company, we're fully committed to merchant silicon. We're not half committed. We're fully committed to merchant silicon. Now within that, we have a diverse portfolio of products using different types of silicon fit for purpose. So an enterprise product, a hyperscaler scale product. We have cloud-grade routing, all using merchant silicon. So a range of products based on that. We differentiate by making the right choices. We differentiate by having a detailed in-depth architecture level conversations with our customers about what's the right form factor, what's the right timing, what's the right combination of features that solve their problems rather than say, well, we have a product, whatever your problem is, our product will solve it. Now we have that diverse range of products.
And then the other way of coming at that is that we do innovate, right? It's merchant silicon. Anybody can go to Broadcom and get the same chips, they can put them on a PCB. They can wrap it and sheet metal and ship it. So what makes Arista products different? The depth and knowledge we have about the silicon. We don't just take the off-the-shelf silicon with the off-the-shelf SDK. We write the drivers, the forwarding agents that integrate the silicon into our software.
The abstraction layer, the programming layer, we can get functionality out of the silicon so our competitors using exactly the same chips aren't able to achieve. They can't unleash the features, they can't hit the scale. We have capabilities and innovations in our products that other people just don't have, literally the same silicon. And we've got examples of that, we had internet scale routing with some telemetry capabilities and counters, returning features on that were supposed to be there. That depth of knowledge built up over almost 20 years of experience in silicon now stands to our ability to continue to execute as the new silicon comes to market, we can get it into a product and get it shipping at scale with reliable features.
Shifting gears a little bit and focusing more on the campus side of things and enterprise within campus. There's obviously been a tremendous amount of momentum. Todd, as you mentioned, the guidance raised for this year. Why does Arista have a right to win in campus? And does best-in-breed matter as much in campus where you have peers that have just an incredible amount of investment in go-to-market.
I think completing the campus solution here with VeloCloud, bringing SD-WAN into the portfolio gives us a full architecture. A lot of times, when people talk about best-in-breed in campus networking, they would say like, well, a wireless-only solution or a routing-only solution is best of breed. If you can deploy the whole campus, you become an architectural win. And so that campus part of the market, I think we're maybe maturing beyond best-of-breed and into a complete -- a really complete solution as that type of buyer would see Arista. I think that's the real power of that VeloCloud acquisition. It's like the last pin to fall.
The other piece of the opportunity here is the expansion of the go to market. I mean I don't mean to minimize the technology, but reaching those customers matters. With the VeloCloud acquisition, we brought in a real expertise in approaching and building businesses with MSPs that we really barely started scratching the surface with before. And we're already seeing those MSP players starting to find interest in the rest of the Arista portfolio and the rest of our go-to-market being able to bring that VeloCloud, that SD-WAN solution across. And it's this kind of momentum in this heartbeat that I think will be focused on for years here, which is building out the rest of the pieces of the enterprise go-to-market to reach the rest of the TAM beyond that Global 2000, beyond direct sales motion, we've been so successful in the last decade.
Yes. And could you expand on that just a little bit more in terms of what is a full suite solution for enterprise go-to-market look like? And how does SD-WAN from VeloCloud kind of filling that gap for you all?
Yes. So as far as campus networking goes, the buyer is largely going to be looking for a WiFi solution, a switching solution that could connect all of the clients, both the wired and the wireless, that includes all the IoT devices, all the screens, et cetera, the wireless access points and then some kind of routing. The biggest sites in the world, big campuses are going to use like traditional high-capacity routing. We've been shipping that at Arista for years and years. But small branch sites, are likely to use technology, SD-WAN routing, which is designed to operate over broadband links, multiple broadband links, 5G, et cetera, and gives a lot more flexibility in how it's deployed.
By being able to offer all of those things, all those different networking components, you wind up with a full solution. And finally, you can approach enterprises with the total solution even if they have a 1,000 tiny branch sites or 2,000, 2,500 little stores or even large stores across the world, that SD-WAN component is an important linchpin and it's especially important in retail, hospitality, the rest of the professional services, distributed professional services verticals, we kind of earn our way into a seat at the table there.
That's great. And could you talk a little bit about the go-to-market for enterprise customers. Arista has obviously had a tremendous track record with very large customers, the cloud titans, but it does feel like the campus go-to-market had been less invested in and for good reason. So where are we today? And how are you thinking about having enough support from a go-to-market perspective, whether that be in your direct sales or relying on the channel to succeed?
Yes. I mean the way this market has operated, and we believe it will continue to operate, is those large cloud titans there, we are deeply engaged with them directly, and there's nothing that's going to change, not just at the kind of go-to-market level, at engineering to engineering level. And then in the Fortune 100, it can look similar, but it's deep, deep direct engagement. As you start walking down to midsize and smaller organizations, the direct sales motion, it doesn't necessarily go away, certainly not right away, but it becomes more working in partnership with a systems integrator, with a service provider or managed service provider or some kind of channel, indirect channel play. And as you get all the way down to the market in the small business, it's really fully channel-led.
We have had so much success in the Global 1000, Global 2000. And that's been primarily a direct sales motion for us. but we've had a lot of channel interaction even up there. We see a ton of those customers using systems integrators to fulfill, for logistics, et cetera. So we already have those relationships and now as we've started to really put together a channel program, even really just for the last 12 months, we're starting to see real traction.
And I'm excited to really kind of invest in that, put fuel on that fire so that we can start working our way down market. When it comes to the data center TAM, a ton of it is upmarket. But when it comes to the campus, it's much more spread out. There's a ton more opportunity in the next 5,000 and the next 20,000 customers.
Okay. And how does security and SASE fit into all of this, and -- versus obviously announced partnerships with Palo Alto and Zscaler and -- why do that instead of have an in-house solution, would you like to do that at some point?
Yes, I think Martin said it right. We're a pure-play networking shop, and we take that seriously. We are going to deliver the best possible network social. And that includes the network security. We have a NAC solution, micro segmentation, a whole host of like sort of network security features and functionality firewall, et cetera, that critical to be built and integrated into the network. But when it comes to the cloud security proxy, the SASE cloud solutions in the world, we lean into choice. We want customers to be able to choose frequently the security buyer, not the networking buyer. And we want our customers to be able to plug in, whether it's Zscaler or Palo or Netskope or something else and have the strongest possible integration into our network and certainly not try to lock them in to one particular solution. That certainly won't be right for everyone. And so for us, being sort of that best-in-class networking solution means providing choice.
Right. And maybe if I could squeeze one more in on campus before going back to data center. I was just wondering if you could shed some light into what's happening as it relates to campus networking refresh, WiFi 7, AI and campus networking how meaningful are those as drivers over the next couple of years?
I think any refresh triggers a -- campus buyer to look at their architecture decision. And that's really where the -- where our opportunity comes is. Anytime a campus operator is going to take a look and decide if they're going to continue with their existing vendor or make a change. And so for us, whether it's WiFi 7 or look at increased client density, especially with explosion of IoT devices, et cetera, potentially increased bandwidth with AI on the campus, but we'll see how that evolves like any time that operator takes a moment to rethink if they're going to continue or open up to competition. That is an opportunity for us.
We are a share gainer in this space. And so like at back is kind of our currency. I would say WiFi 7 is a real opportunity there. We're starting to see some people who are picking their head up and taking a look before they decide to what vendor to use, and we'll leverage that across the network -- across the entire campus architecture.
Great. Martin, shifting back to you. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the major AI clusters and customers that you're working with. You reiterated the at least $750 million of back-end switching revenue. How are those 4 major AI customers progressing along. We continue to see increasing CapEx forecast, at least from consensus across several of your major customers, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle. How does that inform how you look at demand over the next several years?
Yes. So there's 2 time frames to that, right? There's the Chantelle, CFO, perspective, right. This year, $750 million, reiterate it, stay on track. As I said, earlier in the year, we were talking about 4, maybe 5 customers, the pace they were doing for pilots to trials to production. We've incrementally added to that number of customers and when we think about the front end network and the back-end network, the product that we ship is the same. It's 800-gig networking products.
So as we get into 2026, I think we're probably going to move away from trying to differentiate front end and back end, it is getting harder, and I don't know it's necessary serving any value. We look at the year-over-year growth in that, increasingly, CapEx budget increase is obviously, a good thing. But we have to continue to engage with those customers on the 12-, 18-, 24-month horizon, anticipating where they will be a year to 2 years from now not just continuing to sell the same product to the same customers. We have to evolve the portfolio. We're in an 800-gig growth phase now. 800-gig has gone from nothing to a lot, and there's industry reports out there now about how fast the 800-gig adoption has grown, that's going to continue next year.
But we're not that far away from seeing the introduction of the next speed, 1.6 terabit. So that will be a new round of product development. So then we have to get those early products into those same customers' hands and start the next round of pilots and trials and then production.
And then scale of Ethernet will come along shortly after that maybe, but it's not that far away from doing 3.2 terabit. These speed changes, the silicon generations are coming at us faster and faster on each generation. And that's largely because the appetite for GPUs, accelerators, compute is growing faster than we can keep what we're just purely shipping the same boxes. So we're seeing that acceleration in the technology cycles. We're seeing an acceleration in the customer demand, and that is then underpinned by the acceleration in CapEx. So Chantelle's worried about this year -- not worried, but she's focused on the next 6 months. But looking out 18 months to 2 years from now, we're thinking about 800-gig going to 1.6 going to 3.2, and that's where we're kind of looking at the horizon of where we think we're going to be in 2 years' time.
One threat I just wanted to pull on from comments that you made earlier is this acknowledgment that there were 25 to 30 enterprise and Neo cloud customers that was incremental. I think it was 15 at the beginning of the year. So how are those neo cloud and enterprise customers that are doing more in AI different than the cloud titans. Are they consuming the same way? Are they more likely to use a branded solution versus a white box solution within branded, why Arista versus a more integrated solution that comes with compute.
Yes. So they're different from the hyperscale or the hyperscale, it tends to buy and build, repeat function quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year, it's just a continued rollout. Some of the specialty providers are going to make a purchase. There might be a Phase II, there might be a Phase III, but it's not necessarily going to be constant build like a hyperscaler would. And then if you think about some of the neo clouds maybe they're won and done because that's what their capacity is. If you look at the early entry large enterprises who are deploying AI on-prem, it's going to be a project-based technology. So that's that 25 or 30 individually. They're not massive, but you start to add them up, they start to become meaningful at that point. That's why we call them out.
In terms of their technology decision criteria, the neo cloud, the cloud specialty providers have got a whole bunch of smart people who maybe have worked at other places previously. So they've got the same level of technology awareness but they maybe don't have the 3 years, 5 years to investigate, get it right. So they might be making quicker buying decisions, and they're going to do that based on what's available now, how quickly can I move to take advantage of this opportunity. So we're going to see that kind of play into the decision criteria on branded versus not branded, Ethernet versus something else.
They're going to go with what they understand what they know and what's available, what's proven. And that's where our reputation plays into that. We're recognized as being the networking vendor of choice for AI networks, front end and back end. So it gets us a seat at the table, gets us to the voice in the room. It doesn't guarantee success, but certainly, we get invited and then we have to execute and then win that customer opportunity.
That's great. And when you think about an AI cloud customer or an enterprise customer that may be doing AI on-prem, and they choose a branded solution. Could you just help place Arista versus a Cisco or Juniper or a Spectrum or if you'd like, just talk about what differentiates Arista versus other branded solutions.
So we start with not assuming what we know the answer to be. We start with saying what's the requirements. What do you need? What are your application choices? How fast is this going to grow? Now this is networking 101 almost, discovery. We see with some of the other networking vendors out there that they pre-assume what the answer is and trying to sell what their product is. We start with a deep engagement understanding the requirements and trying to fit together requirements and capabilities. That's the right thing for the customer.
The other aspect of that one is, again, we have a reputation, but when we go into labs and trials, that quality starts to show through. And we have examples within that 25 to 30 of customers that didn't necessarily choose Arista first, but they chose Arista the next time around. Why is that? Their experience the first time around, maybe wasn't as complete as it could have been, and they were minded to make a change and they look to Arista for that next choice. So those kind of aspects come into that. I don't want to name any particular competitors, but you kind of get a feel for kind of what's out there.
Okay. Great. There was some recent press about Meta using Arista switches in a data center interconnect use case, and I think it was in Ohio. Could you just maybe just talk about like the DCI opportunity overall? Is this a newer opportunity that has emerged? And is there go to market, the competition different than maybe more considered traditional back end?
Yes. So I mean you're saying to multiple people through the course of the day, data center interconnect isn't a new technology as such. We've been doing data center interconnect since it was 100-gig with WDM, building out a full mesh between multiple sites in metro areas. It quickly evolved to 400-gig and now we're at 800 gig. What's changed is the customer's requirement to build multiple back-end networks and then interconnect those back-end networks across the data center interconnect. So the fundamental building blocks haven't changed. It's still high-speed networks, deep buffer solutions to make sure you can handle the dynamic traffic patterns. And now we're just starting to see that, oh, that's a back-end DCI. Is it really different to the front-end DCI? Not necessarily, but maybe the bandwidth requirements have gone up. We've got the tools. We've got the building blocks.
So for us, it's data center interconnect. But yes, it's that recognition that I need to join together multiple clusters because my buildings are fixed size, fixed power, fixed cooling, I need more than that. I need to join together 4 buildings, 6 buildings, 8 buildings. So I let them better build myself a DCI mesh between those sites. So it's not surprising to us, it's may be more surprising to other people outside the industry.
Great. And the public service announcement that I have for everybody is at Arista is hosting an Analyst Day this Thursday at their headquarters, so we can go straight from the conference to Arista's HQ. Could you maybe just share a little bit of a preview of what investors should expect to hear from the event? And then, I guess, relatedly, what part of the Arista story are you most excited about in the mid- to long term?
Yes.
Yes. Well, we're not supposed to share too much like leave some -- leave some suspense. But I think it's going to be an amazing combination of discussing the business, hearing right from Jayshree and our CFO, Chantelle, on how we see the business dynamics changing. I don't want to spoil anything on that front. But on the technology side, there's going to be some really interesting discussion here, especially on how the very high-performance demands of the customer base, the power limitations and where that sort of intersection is and what the next evolution is going to be. I think it really is worth a shot. So I hope you all come. It's going to be great. And we'll try to make it worth your while.
Great. And then kind of the medium to long-term part of the story that you're most excited about -- I mean apart from the Analyst Day?
Except for the Analyst Day. I mean, it's hard not to be excited about the AI momentum across the market, and we're hearing that buzz top to bottom. The challenges people are seeing are, I think, small compared to the opportunity that this really has to change the world. So don't get me wrong. I'm a campus networking guy, but there's something changing about the way we build networks, and this will be going on for a decade.
That's awesome. Todd, Martin, it's been such a privilege and pleasure to have you on stage here. Thank you for being with us here at the conference. We really appreciate it.
Thank you, Michael.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Arista Networks, Inc. — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
Arista Networks, Inc. — Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernbotschaft: Arista verfolgt zwei klare Wachstumsachsen: starkes Momentum im AI-/Rechenzentrums‑Geschäft (800‑Gig und darüber hinaus) und beschleunigte Expansion ins Campus‑Segment nach der VeloCloud‑Akquisition (SD‑WAN, Wi‑Fi, Switching, Routing). EOS‑Softwarequalität und eigens optimierte Nutzung von merchant‑Silicon sind die zentralen Differenzierer.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Strategie: VeloCloud schließt das Campus‑Portfolio und rechtfertigt ein erhöhtes Campus‑Ziel (~$800M). Management bestätigt AI‑Ambitionen mit wiederholter Nennung von $750M Back‑End und $750M Front‑End sowie 25–30 zusätzlichen AI‑Kunden. EOS als einheitliches Software‑Image und eigene Treiber/Telemetrie für merchant‑Silicon sichern Produktvorteile.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Neue Info: Keine neuen quantitativen Guidance‑Änderungen — Management wiederholte bestehende AI‑Ziele ($750M + $750M) und das Campus‑Ziel ~ $800M. Neu betont wurden die Integration von VeloCloud, verstärkte Kanal‑/MSP‑Investitionen und ein technischer Deep‑Dive beim anstehenden Analyst Day; keine zusätzlichen finanziellen Details genannt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Fragen: Schwerpunkt waren Rechtfertigung der Campus‑Chance gegenüber etablierten Anbietern, Rolle von SD‑WAN/VeloCloud, EOS vs. ODM/White‑Box, merchant‑silicon‑Differenzierung, AI‑Kundencadence (800G→1.6T→3.2T) sowie GTM/Channel‑Skalierung und SASE‑Partnerwahl. Management blieb bei Kundennamen und konkreten Zeitplänen zurückhaltend.
⚡ Fazit
- Fazit: Der Fireside Chat bestätigt das duale Wachstumsszenario (AI‑Switching + Campus) und hebt Software‑Qualität sowie Silizium‑Integration als nachhaltige Vorteile hervor. Positiv für Aktionäre, aber die Bewertung hängt stark von Execution‑Risiken ab: Kanalaufbau, Lieferkette und schneller Silizium‑Zyklus in den nächsten 12–24 Monaten.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Deutsche Bank's 2025 Technology Conference
1. Question Answer
Great. Thank you. Thanks from everybody. I'm Amy Sutter, Deutsche Bank's TMT Specialist, and I'm very excited to host this discussion with Arista Networks. Obviously, a company that's at the center of cloud networking and increasingly AI infrastructure.
And today, I have Mark Foss sitting next to me, who's VP of Global Operations and Marketing; and Hardev Singh, General Manager of Cloud Titans and AI Platforms, very popular topic.
So maybe just to start to get a little bit from both of you. Maybe if you could both just talk about some of the top priorities you're most focused on today. And where have you been spending most of your time? I know it's different.
Personally?
Yes, personally.
First, I wear a lot of hats at Arista, but I'm more focused on the enterprise side of things. And for us, one of our biggest growth areas is the campus market, the enterprise campus market, that's connecting to users. And we're really focused on not only going after large enterprise customers, but one of the focuses that I'm working on right now is enabling channel partners to help us on go-to-market or going after kind of medium-size campuses, and that's kind of a big initiative for us. That's me in a nutshell.
In my role, I work closely with our large customers. So really understanding the requirements, their road maps, the challenges and then really partnering with them to align our road map on products and kind of really been lockstep with them to define our future products. So that's where I spend most of my time.
Yes. And I know we'll go into that more. So I mean on your last earnings call, you raised your revenue guidance by roughly $550 million. And I think investors were very excited about that. I mean how much of that revenue is attributable to these AI cloud titan customers? And maybe just help us understand like your visibility there and the deployment cycles you're seeing.
Yes. We didn't break out exactly what the $550 million was attributed to. I think we said that $50 million of that was kind of our VeloCloud acquisition that we just did. But the other $500 million would be a combination of all of our business be it from a general purpose data center to AI to other use cases, but we didn't exactly break that out. But momentum is pretty strong as we alluded to on our call.
Is visibility different with enterprise versus Cloud Titans, do you think?
It can be. Oftentimes, it depends on -- visibility is oftentimes directly correlated to lead times of the product. And generally, oftentimes, the Cloud Titans will buy our higher-end products, which generally have longer lead times. So generally, you get visibility as to how long your lead times are in there. So I'd say it's more product related than company related. But because the Cloud Titans consume a lot of our high end, we're probably getting a little more visibility from them at this moment, but that can change.
Okay. And maybe just on the AI spend, you've been talking about front end and back end. And maybe there's like historically maybe been a 1:1 ratio, but it seems like the distinction is blurring somewhat. I know I talked -- we did a IR hosted call last week and this is something that a lot of investors were talking about. So maybe if you could talk about that from your perspective, heard of it a little bit. So help us understand when you're working with customers, front end versus back end?
Yes. When we look at back end, it's very crisp and clear. It's the network that's connecting to the GPUs, right? So that's why even the guidance Jayshree or Arista is giving is like we have a clear visibility on that portion of the network that's connecting to the GPUs.
Front end, it gets a bit fuzzy. And the reason is, yes, you hear of ratios like 1:1, even 1:2, sometimes 1:3. And the reason is because front end you have connectivity to the general-purpose cloud, you have storage in there, you have connectivity to the WAN, you have some compute there to feed that data into the back end for training or inferencing so -- and then depending on how a vendor is counting that front end, you could have some variability there in fuzzy math, that's why you see that the ratio kind of having this wide band.
And I think for 2026, I think we've said that we're probably only going to give 1 number, we're going to combine the 2. I mean on the front-end side, front end, even our customers have said, "We can't tell the difference" because the same products that go into oftentimes supporting the AI cluster versus the general compute. And our customers say, they don't even know the different. So if the customers don't know the difference than we can't either. That's why we're just going to give kind of 1 guidance number for 2026.
Okay. Great. And then maybe just we've seen large increases in CapEx, especially for Meta. It's been -- had a huge increase in CapEx. And like when you -- like how -- maybe talk a little bit about the relationship with some of your larger customers, what kind of visibility you have into their plans? And then you did -- Hardev talk about like how tight that relationship is. So maybe a little bit -- if you can clarify a little bit like how that relationship works in terms of their planning around their CapEx spend and what you -- what visibility you have and what part, role you have in terms of helping?
My view on the CapEx spend is that from when they announced the CapEx to when it kind of hits vendors like us, there's a lag, right? Most of the CapEx is probably going into securing power sites, construction, and there's a lag there. It could take anywhere from 12 to 18 months before you bring in the network.
But working closely with them, the priorities are really around next-gen 200-gig SerDes-based products, 1.6T products, the priorities around reducing power. So what are the other technologies like LPO, NPO, co-packaged copper. So that's where most of the engagement is with them and it's a close partnership.
And from an engineering standpoint, right. And so the visibility can be year out kind of thing?
Yes, can be because these technologies are really kind of cutting edge. Liquid cooling is another very important aspect of technology that we're working on, right? So liquid cooling is there in compute today, right? And I think in the future with these new data centers could be 100% liquid cool. At that point, you have to -- the network needs to be liquid cooled as well. So liquid cooling, 200-gig SerDes-based next-gen,1.6T products, optical interconnect with these new LPO, NPO, CPC technologies, probably the top 3 I would list.
Great. And then maybe, maybe let's talk a little bit about scale out versus scale up networks. And can you maybe just for some investors that don't understand the difference between scale out versus scale up networking model. Could you explain the difference? And then maybe how -- what's your opportunity across both?
Really straightforward. Scale-out is the network that connects hundreds of thousands of these GPU servers or racks, right? That's traditionally been InfiniBand when it started, heavily now Ethernet. Scale-up is the network that is connecting the GPUs within a rack or a server, right? The incumbent player is NVIDIA. We have a proprietary solution, which is NVLink and NVSwitch as the ecosystem of these accelerators increase to, let's say, AMD or custom accelerators from the hyperscalers as that share kind of widens, there is a new opportunity for scale-up networking for Ethernet vendors such as Arista. So it's a new TAM that will open up, but it's still slightly out from a horizon point of view.
Right, right. I mean is -- I think -- so you talk about Ethernet versus InfiniBand and the opportunity being as maybe customers are using custom ASICs or they're using an alternative to NVIDIA. Like is that the main reason then why people would be adopting more Ethernet and scale-up?
Ethernet scales. Ethernet is open.
You can dual source Ethernet too.
The smartest customers don't want proprietary solutions. So -- and now we hear the AI cluster sizes from hundreds of thousands of GPUs to even 1 million, right? You hear some of the cloud titans talk about clusters that could potentially go to 1 million. At that point, Ethernet provides the scale, the openness of the ecosystem. And then it just gets complex, more and more complex from a software development perspective, the features around congestion management, load balancing, visibility, customers really care about that and Ethernet really has been there and continues to solve all those...
Customers in general are just more familiar with Ethernet, right? They know it. InfiniBand, they oftentimes don't have any expertise and they don't want to have the learning curve to do that. And it's also beneficial to have Ethernet everywhere as well versus having to manage an island technology. So it's just -- people just prefer to have the simplicity.
So it sounds like the heterogeneous using different ASICs are alternative to NVIDIA, that's driving some adoption of Ethernet, but then also, there's other things that are driving Ethernet. So we're starting to really hit the knee in the curve, I guess?
Yes. I think InfiniBand was originally -- NVIDIA really kind of bundled the InfiniBand oftentimes with their GPUs and that strategy worked early on, but then customers realize that they have choice and Ethernet interconnect has just the same performance and guess what, I'm familiar with it, and I can manage it easier. So I'm going to move to Ethernet. And they are really large-scale -- there's also a scale limitation on InfiniBand as well. So if you want to go up over 50,000, 100,000 GPUs, you're going to want Ethernet. So that was also a consideration for the large cloud guys, especially who wanted to had aspirations to go above and beyond. They don't want a limitation. There's no limitation on Ethernet.
Yes. I think the debate between Ethernet and InfiniBand is over. I think Ethernet has won there for scale-out. I think the next opportunity for Ethernet is to now go after scale-up.
Okay. Great. Okay. And then maybe one big question. I think that I've heard many times before is just the competitive environment. And the one thing you mentioned Hardev, is like your relationship with your large customers and how you're thinking -- working with them from an engineering standpoint. Maybe if we could talk a little bit about white box then versus your traditional competition with Cisco and now HPE, how that's been evolving.
I can start, Mark. I think the landscape is still the same, Amy. It's not changed. There are roles where it's complex from a network architecture from a product standpoint. And the large customers always want sometimes 2, even 3 vendors, right, in a role. So the competition has always existed, whether it's branded vendors or white box, will continue to be that way, and we continue to participate there, show our value and win a fair share.
Yes. Arista is primarily -- our primary value proposition and why our company exists to begin with and our main pillar for our growth has been our software. Arista is a software company and customers really value that. I mean we're really the only vendor out there that has an operating system that was designed and deployed as a 21st century operating system. These other operating systems from other vendors were either 80s or 1990s architectures, so customers see a lot of value there.
But as Hardev mentioned, most of these large guys want a dual source. And they'll take these other vendors as a second source. But oftentimes, they want to -- they want a dual source using the same chip. So they'll use the same -- they'll standardize on 1 Broadcom chip and then they'll use two vendors that use that same chip, but then they'll have different operating systems, of course, and different switches. But as Hardev mentioned, there's not a lot of change in those strategies over the last 6 months.
With the acquisition of Juniper by HPE, have you seen a lot of opportunity?
I think what we saw when there was -- when they were in limbo and there was the -- so that year that went on where HPE announced the intention to announce Juniper wasn't actually finalized. There's a lot of uncertainty in the market there, and uncertainty is not really good thing for customers. They don't really -- they're kind of thinking, well, are these products can be around for the long term or not. And so I think now that that's closed, I think that will definitely help them. But for that 1-year period, where it was in limbo, I think that created a lot of uncertainty in the market.
Great. Yes. Okay. Okay. Maybe to talk a little bit about Broadcom and the relationship there. Just on the Jericho4 chip, how does that enhance the scale-out opportunity for Arista? And what advantages does that give you versus competition?
Broadcom is a great partner. Whenever you look at a new generation of speeds to have the full kind of net portfolio, you want to have a mix of different chips, like Tomahawk and Jericho. In the current 800-gig generation, you can think of the Tomahawk 5, right, and the Jericho3. The Jericho4 now complements the Tomahawk 6. Both those chips are based on 200-gig SerDes.
So when customers are going to look to build their, not just AI, their classic data centers, you want to have the same SerDes across. We will have the same kind of architecture and we build the product with the Jericho4, which will suit the AI lead, AI Spine, interconnect, Data Center Interconnect that kind of helps us complete that portfolio around that same speed.
Okay. And with Tomahawk 6, which are you seeing trials right now with that?
Very early, the chip has just started sampling. I think the earliest we could probably foresee products probably second half '26.
Okay. And then maybe just let's talk about co-packaged optics. Just like what do you think about the advantages and disadvantages of that opportunity? And where does Arista stand on CPO?
I want to start by saying that CPO as a technology is not new. It has been there for at least 2 or 3 generations. And the promise of CPO, which is same, by the way, for LPO is how do I bring the power and the cost down for my interconnect, right? With these AI clusters, obviously, now that interconnect is very large, you're talking massive size clusters needs thousands of these switches and then tens of thousands of these optics. That's the promise or that's the goal that these technologies are trying to solve. Where CPO has challenges is around serviceability and the whole operations side of things, right?
Pluggable optics, you get different speeds -- a port fails, you replace it. You have different vendors to choose from. CPO, a failure domain will go from one port to the whole switch, right? Like 800 gig versus 51T worth of bandwidth, right? So we continue to evaluate their technology. We still feel confident that LPO or newer technologies like near-packaged optics or co-packaged copper are technologies out there that will help the goal, which is to reduce power and cost. We'll continue to evaluate.
And we're agnostic to what -- if the customer demands it, we'll build it and provide it. So we're pretty much agnostic to the technology. But myself personally and a number of other executives at Arista, we went through this exercise 25 years ago, where it wasn't clear when Gigabit Ethernet was coming out, and it was like, is it co-package Gigabit Ethernet or is a pluggable -- and we didn't know then what it was going to be. And it turned out that for Gigabit Ethernet, at least going on to 10/40/100. Pluggables just blew the doors off of co-packaged, and we'll see if that trend holds true in the situation here. But generally, past can oftentimes be a pretty good indicator of the future. But again, we're agnostic if customers want to buy co-package stuff, we'll provide it.
Okay. I mean, I guess, like if, I mean we're starting to see more and more CPO products come out. Do you just think that -- how long do you think it takes for customers to maybe look at adoption? Is this like a year?
It depends on the customer. I mean, generally, they'll trial things for like 3 or 6 months oftentimes, it depends but...
I think there are two aspects. One is the technology being ready in terms of product offering. And second, to see once it's deployed in some certain scale to see how the TCO performs from operations and serviceability and failures. So I think there's two-step kind of phases there to kind of then come out and say, yes, this technology works and then you would probably see the takeoff of large deploy.
And so when you start to see like successful deployments, that's when Arista would say like, well, maybe we need -- this is what are asking for. So we'll...
Yes, we base everything on what customers want. I'd say, at least a couple of years out.
Okay. You talked about 25 to 30 enterprise and Neocloud customers adopting AI so far. Can we talk about the ramp of those customers? What are some of the main workloads use cases that they're going after?
It's of a wide variety. If I had to say a trend, a lot of these guys are providing kind of AI as a service model, it'd be like maybe a startup or someone who's just wanting to build out an AI cluster that they could provide -- that they can actually charge for a service. That's one model I'm seeing, Hardev probably see others as well.
Yes. GPU as a Service, sometimes building capacity in certain regions for large customers, sovereign clouds, maybe government mandated to -- where you have a customer already for what you're going to build, so lot of activity there. The architecture is very similar to, let's say, the large customers or the cloud titans, just that the scale is smaller. We see a lot of inferencing use cases. We see diversity of GPUs. It's a fun space, and it's exciting.
What are some of the challenges that you see? Is it maybe because they're not the cloud titans that are so experienced with large data centers or perhaps funding? Or just curious what some of the challenges that you might be seeing? And does it offer opportunities to really go in there and help from an engineering standpoint that might be differentiated?
One thing that stands out, and Hardev probably has a lot more information than I do, is the ability to get power. So they have -- there was one large -- one that we talked about on our conference calls previously that they were had an ability to get power and they ended up getting some delayed fundings. That's a big issue. There's a lot of other...
Yes. And these customers also care about the performance out of their network, right? I mean these are large investments and to get the best performance out of the GPU they really want the best-of-breed network. And I think they're looking at Arista to provide that capability, that differentiation, the software stack that we have and the bunch of features we've developed around load balancing, telemetry and then they view us as, okay, these guys are participating and running one of the largest some of the largest AI clusters and we'll get a fair share on the table to participate on those opportunities. And if there's some places you will see bundling and stuff and those opportunities we don't participate in, but otherwise we do.
Okay. I was going to ask where are we in the upgrade cycle to higher speed ports like 100-gig?
There's always many upgrade cycles going on. They never end. But I guess, starting on the lower speed. I mean, the transition to gigabit to 10-gig is almost done. There's very little gigabit going on anymore. There is a transition going on from 10 to 25 currently, but it's still 10 gig is still at least 4x the size of 25 gig, but that's happening. Then there's the 40-gig to 100-gig transition, which is complete. There's pretty much 40-gig is now pretty much dead. There's no deployments going on for 40-gig.
200-gig is, there's primarily one customer in the world that's deploying a lot of 200-gig. There's not a lot of other customers beyond this one customer, which is only 200-gig, that's kind of a one-off for 200-gig. But then on the higher speeds, we're definitely seeing some -- 400-gig, I think, is fairly close to 100-gig. There was a transition from 100-gig to 400-gig. And that's fairly close now. I think you're starting to see 100-gig peak a little bit. 400-gig is starting to, I think, have more momentum there. And then the one that's growing the fastest right now is 800-gig. 800-gig is only been shipping for like a year and pretty much all of the new AI -- if someone's bidding on a new AI project, it's always 800-gig. So 800-gig is growing the fastest, but it's the newest and the smallest. But anyway, there's a lot of dynamics going on there.
And the trend I see, again, with the large customers is that all this traffic from AI is having a knock-on positive effect on the classic, if you will, data center, right? So it's forcing some of the speed upgrades to accelerate.
Okay. Okay. Yes. I guess also then to talk about how important your observability in zero trust security solutions are for customers in AI use cases?
Yes. Security is very important, but observability is key. I think once going back to the same point, as these cluster sizes become large, having good telemetry, good visibility into where I'm having network issues, with the size of clusters things are going to fail, right?
Meta put out a paper where they're like the biggest link flaps or ports coming down was due to optics failures, right, where due to HBM memory corruption errors on the GPUs. So having visibility there and then to quickly get the ports back up, really reduces the overall job completion time for them, which is a direct correlation to revenue for them. So they really care about visibility, observability. And that's where with Ethernet and Arista, we have a great portfolio of features in our software stack to address those challenges.
So is it typically then where observability always comes from the networking aspect of the...
Yes. Networking plays a very key role. And CloudVision, which is our management platform provides that visibility for the customers, not only in the network, we go all the way down to the NIC on the GPU. So you get an end-to-end visibility of the AI cluster to the interconnect to the backbone in one dashboard which is CloudVision.
Right. Okay. So maybe let's talk a little bit about sovereign cloud and service providers. So there was no sovereign cloud contribution expected in 2025. I mean how do we see that market developing? And what do you think helps gain share?
Definitely sovereign cloud opportunities out there, and we're involved in those. I think if you compare the sovereign cloud spend to what like a cloud titan were to spend on AI, it kind of dwarfs it. So I think it's not about the number of opportunities, more of like what the scale is. Generally, I don't think there's a sovereign cloud that I've heard of that's planning on going over 100,000 GPUs, but there is a number of others that are doing that. So I think it's not about the number, but it's more about the size.
I think you said no contribution from Arista from sovereign clouds in 2025. That's not true. In fact, if you see -- when Jayshree spoke about our -- we started with 5 customers to 4, we still very confident on our $750 million number and a lot of that is kind of coming from these 25 to 30 other customers out of the top 4 that we talk about and where sovereign cloud, a part of that.
Okay. Yes. And then maybe on service providers, which parts of your product portfolio are best aligned with their needs from what you're seeing today?
Service provider side, it's kind of our fifth out of 5 verticals that we do. We generally do very well in the service provider space if they're building kind of a data center architecture to support their infrastructure, and we do very well there. They also use us for routing use cases. And oftentimes, they'll use us for like an MSP service. That's where the VeloCloud stuff comes in. We'll oftentimes use our WiFi sometimes for a service as well. But there's a variety of use cases. You had something Hardev?
Yes. The classic service provider, in my view, is slightly on the decline from a TAM perspective. But I think our portfolio of products with our 7,800 routers, both fixed and chassis form factor play well into that space, and we continue to compete in that market.
How is market share for -- and you continue to gain share like -- primary share?
Do we break it down and talk about...
I think it's broken down by region or by, yes, customer type.
And then, I think -- are you seeing, I think tariff uncertainty has kind of come and gone. But are you seeing any impact from a customer buying perspective, is it still part of the conversation with customers?
It can be because it's a very fluid situation. We -- obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty 6 months ago, and that's one of the reasons why we didn't change our full year guidance for last or 2 quarters versus last quarter because we were uncertain what's going to happen in tariffs.
Fortunately, we are covered under the U.S. MCA exemptions and under the communication equipment exemptions for tariffs right now. So our tariff impact has been material, so we haven't had to make any changes there, which has been good. But as we've seen, the tariff situation can change very quickly. So we're definitely watching it closely. And customers will ask about do we see any risk there. But again, we just say, what I just told you, it's very fluid, and we're just -- we'll continue to react when it happens.
And how is the supply chain? I mean we've come in and out of an inventory situation also. I mean, is it pretty not having an impact in terms of delivering product to customers. Maybe it's -- I think from a cloud titan perspective, you might have talk about like their power issue is like their bottlenecks. But it doesn't seem like there's many supply chain issues.
The supply chain continues to get better post-COVID. I think one of the big changes is that the chips that we use, those -- the lead times have come down on that, but they haven't come down to post to pre-COVID levels yet. I think that's kind of one aspect of the supply chain which is still an issue for us. But supply chain is never over. There's always some kind of a shortage or there's always some kind of a surplus of things, and it's always something we work on a daily basis.
Yes. I think we are well positioned from a manufacturing supply chain in terms of diversity. We have contract manufacturing in Asia, Malaysia, Vietnam and then Mexico. And then we use 3 or 4 different contract manufacturers, and there's fungibility there in terms of product. So I would say we are well positioned to address any kind of foreseen increases in demand.
I want to check if there's any questions from the audience, just in case. We do have a microphone. Okay. And then maybe on the margin side, is there a big -- how should we think about AI product margins? Is it more dependent on the customer or the product?
Definitely, the customer. Generally, Arista does volume pricing. So the largest customers could have the most spend at the best prices. And right now, AI is a pretty concentrated market. It's generally the largest customers that are buying a lot of AI. So yes, it's definitely customer versus product.
Okay. And then maybe you mentioned this -- we'll talk about the campus opportunity.
Yes. My favorite subject.
Yes. So you raised your target, kind of maybe talk about what's driving that increase there?
Yes. For us, the $50 million increase was really because of our VeloCloud acquisition that we completed July 1. So that extra $50 million was really because Velo really rounds out our branch solution. We have the PoE switches and the WiFi, which can go in the branch, but the WAN optimization for the branch was a piece that was really missing and Velo really fits in there and really smooth that out for us.
But the campus is just -- I'm so excited about it because in 2025, some of the analysts were saying that data center is a $30 billion TAM, but they're also saying that campus is also a $30 billion TAM. They're the same size of TAM. However, from a market share perspective, Arista is small, low single digits right now in terms of share of campus, while we're kind of 30% share in data centers. So we have a bigger runway, I guess, growth -- multiyear runway for growth in terms of campus. So it's an area which people don't talk about a lot, but it's an area of our biggest TAM. So when people ask about it, I get really excited about it.
I guess like in terms of market share opportunities, how do you see that playing out? Is it a go-to-market as well or if it's VeloCloud also maybe accelerate the opportunity to gain share, please expand on that.
Yes. So VeloCloud definitely helps us. I would say that but half of the TAM of campus market is large enterprise, meaning Fortune 500 Global 2000. And we focus on direct touch to the end customer for those opportunities, which we're really good at because the same guys that sell data center, which is great. On the small side of things, we don't really focus on that market, which is maybe 20% or 25% of the market. But the other 25% of the market, which is medium business, that's an area of focus for us as well, but we're -- our go-to-market is more on the channel side. So one of my big jobs right now is to focus on enabling channel partners to help enable them to bring business to us kind of on the medium business side of campus.
And that's really big because there's essentially 1 million campuses on planet earth. So your sales force can't scale to have that coverage. You need channel partners on the ground to help you. And that's been a big focus of ours.
And I guess, what would you say on the relationship with the channel? Like where are you kind of on a trajectory of like first inning to ninth inning, in terms of those relationships and seeing the benefit in market share?
Yes. No, for channel enablement, it's still -- I can still fairly early. I think a big chunk of our business is -- the channel oftentimes plays a fulfillment role for a large enterprise. But our focus is to get them to do the heavy lifting and enable them to go after the mid-market and be very independent. And we're having some success there, but it's -- I think it's still early. And you can tell by our share on a number basis, there's a lot of room to go, and that's a big opportunity for us.
Great. Well, thank you. I know we're getting kind of close to the end, but I know you have the Analyst Day coming up. Anything you want to leave us with to entice to be sure we're...
Well, there'll definitely be some technology updates, how we differentiate in the market. And then maybe some insights into next year guide or...
Yes. Probably we'll probably talk about 2026. I think there's a lot of questions on blue box. I know for a fact that we're going to be talking a lot about blue box and go in depth on that. So that will be exciting.
Yes.
Great. Well, thank you guys so much for taking time today.
Thank you. Thank you for having us.
Thank you.
Thank you.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Deutsche Bank's 2025 Technology Conference
Arista Networks, Inc. — Deutsche Bank's 2025 Technology Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Takeaway: Arista positioniert sich als zentraler Ethernet‑Anbieter für AI‑Infrastruktur und als Wachstumsplattform im Enterprise‑Campus. Management betont Software‑Differenzierung (Arista OS, CloudVision) und Partnerschaften mit Cloud‑Titans sowie Channel‑Ausbau als Haupttreiber.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- AI‑Stack: Fokus auf scale‑out Ethernet für große GPU‑Cluster; Front‑ und Back‑End werden 2026 in der Kommunikation zusammengeführt (einheitliche Guidance).
- Produktroadmap: Einsatz von Broadcom‑Chips (Jericho4 ergänzt Tomahawk‑Familie), 800‑G‑Wachstum, Planung für 1.6T/next‑gen SerDes und Arbeiten an Liquid‑Cooling/Optik‑Alternativen.
- Go‑to‑Market: Campus‑Offensive (großes TAM, aktuell niedrige Marktanteile) plus VeloCloud (WAN/Branch) und Channel‑Enablement zur Mittleren‑Kunden‑Erschließung.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Guidance‑Praxis: Management will 2026 Front‑/Back‑End nicht mehr getrennt ausweisen, sondern nur eine kombinierte Zahl.
- Timing: Tomahawk6/Jericho4‑Ära in Entwicklung; erste Tomahawk6‑Produkte frühestens H2 2026 erwähnt. VeloCloud trug ~$50M zur Guidance bei.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Visibility: Cloud‑Titans liefern tendenziell bessere Vorhersehbarkeit wegen längerer Lead‑Times für High‑End‑Teile; dennoch bleibt Kunden‑/Produktabhängigkeit groß.
- Wettbewerb & Technik: Ethernet gilt intern als überlegene, offene Lösung vs. InfiniBand für sehr große Clusters; CPO/LPO werden evaluiert, Adoption unklar wegen Serviceability.
- Risiken: Margen stark kundenabhängig; weiterhin Beobachtung von Tarifen, Supply‑Chain‑Lead‑Times und Power/CapEx‑Timing bei Großkunden.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Solider strategischer Pitch: kombinierte AI‑/Campus‑Wachstumsoptionen, starke Software‑Position und Chip‑Partner sorgen für Mehrjahres‑Upside. Risiken bleiben Kundenkonzentration, technologische Unsicherheiten (CPO) und makrobedingte Timing‑Effekte.
Arista Networks, Inc. — J.P. Morgan Hardware & Semis Access Forum
1. Question Answer
Okay. Great. Yes, I think the mic's working. So thank you, everyone. I have the pleasure of hosting the next session with Arista. And we have with us Martin Hull, who's the Vice President and General Manager of Cloud and AI Platforms; as well as Rod Hall, ex-JPMorgan, and now in Arista Finance. So Rod, thanks for being here as well.
Sure, Samik. It's good to be here.
Thank you both for the time. I'll start you with a very easy and no sort of hard question to really hit at. But a lot of the conversation over the recent months has moved very quickly to scale-up networking. And so we understand AI is an incremental revenue opportunity for the company, but just help us think about how you're thinking about the TAM to scale-out versus scale-up and we can go from there and particularly addressable to Arista.
Yes. So let's level set and make sure we're all talking about the same things. So this AI networking explosion about which clearly we're very excited about, and I think all of you are, and most of the questions on the various investor calls are primarily about AI. What is the AI networking that we're seeing? So the primary part of the AI networking is tens, hundreds, thousands of GPUs in a physical location and you build a high-speed, full mesh interconnect network between those. That's what we call the scale-out network. That's that full interconnect, tens, hundreds, thousands, Jayshree talked about customers getting towards 100,000. In front of that is the traditional existing data center, which is connectivity to the outside world. That's what we call the front-end network. So there's a front end and there's a back end. So the back end is the scale-out.
What we're increasingly seeing is that at a rack level, where you might have multiple GPU enclosures, you want to be able to provide additional high-speed local connectivity between those enclosures at a single rack or a pair of racks. And that is introducing this new technology of scale-up rather than scale-out or front end or back end. So it's a high-speed interconnect that is potentially 4x or 8x higher speed than the scale-out, but it's constrained to single digits of compute nodes, GPU clusters. It's higher speed, fewer ports, you could do some math and say that the scale-out TAM is roughly equivalent to the scale-up, but scale-up is an emerging market. It's not here yet. It's new, it's nascent.
Now 2 years ago, we were talking about scale-out being the new emerging market. Now we're in year 2, moving towards year 3 of that. I forget exactly how long since ChatGPT burst onto the scene, but it feels like about 2 years. So these are incremental TAMs. And so the scale-up TAM is incremental on top of the scale-out, but it's later. I don't want to put numbers on it. Other people can put numbers on it, but it is incremental. So when we think about how that relates to Arista, for the first phase of that, it's going to be primarily driven by proprietary technologies in year 1, maybe into year 2. You're then going to start to see the introduction of an Ethernet technology for that scale-up use case. And then once it's an Ethernet technology, it becomes a real addressable TAM rather than just this market sizing exercise.
So we think maybe 2028, maybe sooner, maybe later, it's difficult to tell this far out. We think in 2028, that scale-up networking for Ethernet becomes a realistic addressable market for us. But I didn't put numbers on it, but roughly equivalent to the size of the scale-out network.
Okay. And so you expressed overall the confidence that Ethernet is really where the market is going by the time you get to 2028. And we saw this sort of play out on the scale-out side as well where we started with InfiniBand, over time, sort of Ethernet is really what seems to be the more popular option for customers in their adoption. But is your expectation that scale-up is also primarily Ethernet just driven by what you saw in scale-out? Or are there other reasons, including sort of differentiation in the technology that's driving that expectation, that Ethernet is eventually where this industry goes on scale-up as well?
So some of the answers to those kinds of questions depend on when, not if. And we've seen this within the scale-out, right? It has predominantly moved to Ethernet. There's been a crossover point. But if you ask me a year ago or 2 years ago and you investors were asking some of the questions, will Ethernet win over InfiniBand? And we were quite confident in our yes. I don't want to get quite so confident on the scale-up. It's still very early. But will Ethernet be an option? Yes. We've seen this with the introduction of new chipsets from Broadcom, the Tomahawk 6s, the Tomahawk 5 Ultras. One of the positionings for those chipsets is for that scale-up use case. So there's an Ethernet option.
If you're deploying a scale-up networking today, you're probably doing it with the predominant supplier of GPUs which is probably going to drive you towards using their choice of a technology, NVLink. Over time, as you get a choice in the GPUs, customers will express a preference for using something that's open, flexible, multi-vendor, over being encouraged to use a single vendor proprietary technology. Now again, there's been some moves within NVIDIA to open up some of the IP blocks so that other people can put their silicon. It still makes it a closed technology. So we can have that debate.
So do I see Ethernet becoming a significant part of the scale-up? Yes. How much share and how fast is it? Well, we'll have that debate for the next couple of years. But scale-up, absolutely. As you see new GPU vendors come in, GPUs, accelerators, TPUs, whatever you want to call them, I don't see any of those embedding these other technology choices. They embed an Ethernet choice. Scale-up is inevitable. Whether it's Ethernet or not, we can have that debate like we did about InfiniBand versus Ethernet for 2 years.
Or about 5 other technologies versus Ethernet. We kind of know how that all played out because you have scale economics at play as well. So we'll see, like Martin says, but Ethernet history has proven that it tends to be the one that ends up succeeding.
Okay. Maybe before we jump into some of these sort of scale-up, scale-out questions and specifically to your customers, one of the other questions I get a lot from investors is, how do we think about between the data center or the DCI opportunity for Arista? How do you play into that? What does that addressable market look like for you?
Yes. So data center interconnect is an interesting technology. And I've said this before many times, when I launched our 400-gig portfolio 3 years ago, 4 years ago, the primary use case for 400-gig was for data center interconnect between large multi-tiered data centers using 400-gig ZR technologies. At the time that I launched that 400-gig portfolio, I said the secondary use case was this thing called AI and ML. And people looked to me and said, "It's for what?" I said, "AI and ML." "Yes, It's DCI." So now we're on the other side of that. 800-gig predominant use case is AI. Nobody disagrees with that.
The secondary use case is for data center interconnect. If I'm building out a campus of data centers, I've got 6, 8, 12 buildings in a local geography, I need to provide high-speed bandwidth between those physical buildings. It might only be a kilometer, 2 kilometers apart. Ideally, I'd have my big super cluster stretched infinitely across all those buildings. But in reality, I've got finite bandwidth. So I'm going to have to design clusters, bubbles, zones and then mesh them as best I can. So we are going to see an introduction of data center interconnect technology for joining buildings together in a metro or a campus.
Then we go to metro, then we maybe have to think about, "Well, I've got these buildings that are 20 miles, 30 kilometers apart. Can I use data center interconnect? Can I get access to fiber and how fast can we push that technology?" So there's going to be a growth in that data center interconnect because people are constrained by how big you can build a data center, how much power you can get on a campus, how much cooling, how much technology. And so that's forcing people into multiple buildings and stretching those buildings distances apart. So data center interconnect does become a key driver for growth in the AI segment.
And then the other debate about that is, well, the technologies that we announced at 400-gig, our R-Series switches, routers, fixed and modular were perfect for 400-gig data center interconnect. The products we've announced for 800-gig are the same technologies. They're perfect for data center interconnect. They're now just being used on that back-end network, not necessarily the front-end network. So yes, we do see data center interconnect as an interesting slice of that AI segment.
Any way you would quantify it relative to the opportunities within the data center that you have?
It's always going to be a slice because you're not going to put a full mesh bandwidth in those buildings. But then you're typically using more complex systems, you're maybe designing to a different set of rules. So I don't want to size it. But if we look at it, it's going to be -- data center interconnect for AI is going to be used by the big players. You should probably ask about next. The bigger players will have these buildings in a similar location. When we talk about smaller customers who have got a single location or single-digit locations, data center interconnect is less relevant for them. So that's how it will split. Is there a use case? And even when there's a use case, it's a small percentage of that total aggregate spend.
Okay. So moving to the large customers. And I think on the earnings call, you said 2 of your cloud titan customers are at or near the 100,000 GPU cluster size in terms of deployment. So as we look beyond 2025 or even to the second half of 2025 into 2026, what does the growth trajectory with these customers look like? Is it just continue to scale with them? Or do you start to hit a plateau in terms of the deployment pace with them? How should we think about where do you go next with these customers that are already close to the 100,000 GPU cluster sizes?
Yes. So we can refer back to the prepared remarks on the earnings call from Jayshree and Chantelle, right? Those top customers are still on track for 100,000 GPU. I don't think we've given a hard date, but we did say we expect them to be there before the end of the year. All of them are going past the 100,000, right? There's no slowdown in the demand for AI. There's no slowdown in demand for accelerators. There's no slowdown in demand for networking for those accelerators, for those AI clusters. So as we go into 2026, those customers will continue to grow. We also expect to add incrementally other customers. We may not give as much detail about them. And we don't see that the AI growth is slowing down in '26. Based on publicly shared TAMs, I don't think anybody is seeing it slowdown in '27.
You also look at the public companies that are talking about their CapEx budgets, '25 into '26, they're incrementally increasing their expectation of their spend. I think what gets challenging with some of that is that you can actually have a CapEx budget and be unable to use it all because there isn't enough building space, power, cooling, physical infrastructure and accelerators to satisfy this demand. But the largest consumers of AI, let's say, are incrementally increasing their CapEx budgets, whether they're an Arista customer or not, that's still a good thing. The AI market is continuing to expand, and then we can take our fair share of that.
One thing I'd just add to that in terms of background, the reason that we gave some detail around these customers is because we started off with 0 share in back end. And we wanted to let people know, hey, we've got traction in back end, which now we feel pretty confident we do have. So we no longer feel we need to be -- disclose as much in terms of what customers, where, how big, et cetera.
The other thing I would add is the third customer, we did say we'll achieve scale. And I wouldn't get caught up in these GPU numbers either because all that's meant to convey is that we're at scale. We're in production with these customers. The third one will be there, we've said early next year. And then the fourth one is this InfiniBand customer that that's a slower burn, and we haven't really said much about the ramp on that. So just to be clear about that and give a little bit of background as well.
And maybe the follow-up question was going to be on the fourth customer. You treat them -- you obviously classify them as a large deployment or a cloud titan even relative to the back end. So there must be some level of confidence that they will eventually hit that size cluster on Ethernet as well? Or do you -- like is there -- maybe the question is, is there visibility that they will get to that deployment size with Ethernet in 2026? Or is there limited visibility on that front with that InfiniBand customer at this time?
I think the debate only really happens around timing, speed of progress, right? We are happy with the progress we're making as a technology, happy of speed of growth of those clusters. That's going to depend on things that are potentially outside our control. We're talking about 2026, it's a year, 1.5 years from now. So we are extremely happy with the success. We're happy with our progress. How fast the customer chooses to go is we'll go as fast as they want to go.
Okay. Maybe I'll introduce one more nuance there in that question. How much of the confidence on that customer or the limited confidence in 2026 is driven by InfiniBand to Ethernet transition versus InfiniBand to Spectrum-X to open system -- open Ethernet transition, like more multi-vendor transition?
Yes. I think that the key decisions are made that Ethernet is the answer. Not to say that any technology organization or any large customer can't revisit those decisions on a daily, weekly, monthly basis. So again, I don't want to get too far out ahead of our skis here. But no, the decisions have been made that Ethernet is the right technology, and that's not the doubt.
Okay. Maybe moving to the enterprise and neocloud category where you specified 25 to 30 customers versus 15 prior. So that would indicate that you're seeing a significant step-up in engagements with the sort of Tier 2 category of customers in that sense. Is there something in terms of timing that helped this quarter? Or should we expect sort of a similar continued ramp with these Tier 2 kind of category of customers? How much more headroom also do you see on that front?
So again, going back probably 1 year, 1.5 years, we were saying that every large enterprise has to have an AI strategy a year, 1.5 years ago. That AI strategy could be we'll put an AI project into somebody else's infrastructure. That could have been that we need to have a business model, a business plan. It could be that we spin up a technology group internally. could spin up a technology group internally to go build a pilot. And now what we're seeing a year, 18 months later, is a number of organizations who are starting to progress from that discussion and conversation into pilots, trials and production.
So they do range from, say, enterprise customers who will be putting in a small cluster, tens, dozens, hundreds of GPUs to organizations who have got access to facilities and buildings who are now spinning up AI GPUs as a service. So they're putting, again, relatively small clusters into many of their existing locations. Maybe they've got access to power and cooling, and there's some subleasing going on back to other customers. So we talk about AI as a service, we talk about enterprises who are technology-centric or technology focused. They will be starting to do AI pilots and trials now. Some of those might have a second phase and the third phase, but they're not going to be a multiyear rollout like a hyperscaler or a cloud titan would do. They just don't have that scope.
It's like saying how many data centers can any organization have. If your business isn't data centers, it's a single digit. So you pivot that back and say, "Well, what about these neoclouds and sovereign wealth funds?" Yes, they're also making investments, but they have to get the funding in place and they have to get access to facilities and power. So they're going to be that second wave or third wave, and they're probably in the Phase 1 and hopefully, a Phase I and Phase II with them. So they are starting later.
So with a neocloud perspective, they won't necessarily be the biggest, the largest worldwide, but they are going to be significant. Some of those names would be known to you if you're studying this space. And then we have the enterprises, the tech-centric organizations and effectively Tier 2 service providers, Tier 2 hosters. So between all of that, tens to dozens to hundreds to customers who are deploying a couple of thousand GPUs in the data center. So that's the scope of the scale. And when we say 25 to 30, that's an estimate at the moment. And yes, we should expect that number to grow from here to the end of the year. Incrementally, each quarter, we should be adding new opportunities, new wins.
And like with the hyperscalers where you had a good 18- to 24-month time period of pilots to production, is that pretty similar when it comes to the smaller scale customers as well in terms of the engagement before you start to see material revenue out of that in production?
There's no single answer to some of those questions in that if it's a relatively small deployment and there aren't milestones and step functions, then it's a normal transaction. Others where you've got phases and rollouts and milestones, then yes, you're going to see a similar cadence of trials to pilots to production. You're going to fit in all of that.
That's another one of those things where there's a perception potentially. We've gotten questions from investors about whether we can be as successful with these smaller cluster sizes as we have been with the big ones. And again, we're disclosing some of this to let people know, yes, we feel like we've got good traction, good momentum there. So some of that same type of dynamic is going on from a communication point of view, just to kind of put a little bit of background to it.
Okay. Let me open it up and see if anyone in the audience has a question.
Kind of product related, but can you just walk through the pros and cons of a customer deploying kind of like a disaggregated scheduled fabric solution like Jericho, Ramon boxes versus a more traditional like leaf/spine with Jericho boxes.
Okay. I'll try. So you said disaggregated scheduled fabrics, that's DSF. So that architecture is productized in our 7700R-Series, where you have 2 sets of fixed configuration devices. You have an edge leaf switch and you have a centralized fabric switch device. That architecture is exactly the same architecture you have in the fully modular 7800. So there's no difference between the architecture. There's no difference to the forwarding, the day in life of the packet, behavior, characteristics, features. What you're doing is you're allowing the customer to physically position that leaf disaggregated switch next to the compute and then have a single set of connectivity to a fabric tier.
So it looks like a leaf/spine physically. You cable it like a leaf/spine physically, but you get the benefit of a single modular chassis. So the tipping point for going from a single modular chassis to a disaggregated solution is 576 ports of 800-gig or 1,152 ports of 400-gig because I could try and build a bigger chassis, but most people wouldn't be able to get it through the doors of their buildings. These things are lined up like monoliths. So we could build a larger chassis, but it's not practical. So we took that concept of the modular chassis and stretched it, so we can have 128 fabrics and we can have -- I forget exactly how many distributed leafs, we can scale that to more than 6,000 ports.
So I've got my modular chassis stretching to the sky. That's the architecture. So then you compare that to a Tomahawk-based single-chip architecture. So Tomahawk is a great forwarding architecture, Tomahawk 5, Tomahawk 6, gives me 51 terabits of switching or 102 terabits of switching in a single device. That's great for 51.2 terabits of local I/O. Once I go past that, I need 2 of them. Actually, you can't do it with 2 because you lose half the bandwidth. To go from 1, the next stop is 6. So to go from 51 terabits to 100 terabits of I/O is 6 switches, then it's 12, then it's 24, and we scale this up to 512, 1024, 2048. It's just a mathematical progression. It's simple until you run out of ports. That first hot switch can have half of the I/O to talk to compute and half of the I/O to talk to the second tier. When I can't split it up into any more granularity, I need to add a third tier.
So in contrast to that DSF architecture, I need to add in another layer of cables, more racks, more power, more cooling, then we can talk about conversation about optimizing for power, having LPO class optics, but half that power at an optics level. So the trade-offs are most of what I just said, right? How big a cluster do I want to build? What's my future proofing? Do I want a VOQ architecture that gives me consistency? Do I want to stay with fixed configuration devices with a higher radix but be fixed to how big I can build a 2-tier network, I need to go to a third tier.
When you actually find customers deploying Tomahawk-based leaf switches and Jericho-based spine switches. We estimate that most customers are probably putting that kind of architecture in. Some who are scaling a little lower will be more than happy with a 2-tier Tomahawk-only architecture. There's cost trade-offs, there's power trade-off. There's other things in there. That's quite a long answer, but I think I got most of your points.
So it's a radix argument going with DSF versus leaf/spine?
So there's breakpoints, right? I can have a single switch and then I can hit the scale limits and then maybe DSF is entrust in the middle. And then there'll be a point at which even DSF can't scale that big. I need to go back to a 3-tier network or a 4-tier network and do data center interconnect. So DSF fits into the sweet spot of a certain size. And then maybe some evolution of that will allow that DSF to scale more in the future. Let's see.
Just back to the tiering question. I was just curious, once we go past the 100,000 GPUs in a single cluster, do you think we'll need 3 tiers on the networking side? Or how do you see that evolving?
This magic number of 100,000. So at the Broadcom launch of Tomahawk 6, they used 131,000 and something. I can't remember the last 3 digits. And that was based on a 2-tier network of Tomahawk 6s with all the accelerators running at 200-gig. So you can get to 131,000 with a 2-tier of Tomahawk 6s. If you want to get past that, you need Tomahawk 7. I didn't just announce it, right? You need whatever follows on. You need more than 100 terabits. Otherwise, you can't get past it. That's physics. Or you can just go to 100-gig for every compute node. That's not what people want to do. If you want to do 400-gig, your 131,000 comes down.
So I can't answer the question about how to get past 131,000 without knowing how many GPUs you've got, what connectivity are. So people are then looking at data locality, moving these clusters into smaller pods so that I can build a pod, a cluster of, let's say, 100,000, let's say, 96,000, and then I have 4 of those, and I connect them together with a full mesh. But the data locality means that I don't necessarily have to have 200,000, 400,000 in a single cluster. You then get into failure modes, troubleshooting, operational challenges. And again, building those pods and clusters together is a technology alone. It's kind of like data center interconnect, if they're across buildings. If it's in a building, I'm not going to have full cross-sectional bandwidth between all 4 pods necessarily if I don't need it because it is a high incremental cost to put that third tier in of non-blocking bandwidth.
Just in terms of the scale-up opportunity, I think the competitive advantage in scale-out in general has been the combination of hardware optimization and software. As you think about scale-up, do you think that one of those is more important than the other?
So what we've seen over the last decade is that our relationship with our key customers has meant that they come to us for our best-of-breed hardware designs even if they choose not to run our software. There's a number of reasons for that, efficiency of design, our engineering team, we actually produce lower power systems compared to something that's identical.
But above that, between the hardware and the software, there's this hidden middle layer of intelligence, whether it's power management, CPU management, link efficiency, link training, SerDes, identifying unknown areas before they come a problem. That middleware of value is through EOS software, but a customer that's running their open operating system is still using that same middleware to control our hardware. So the efficiency of the hardware design, absolutely.
And then if you put 2 designs side by side, I always stand behind ours, for obvious reasons. But I think that, that interaction between our hardware and our middleware intelligence that's fundamentally everything we've done in the company over the last 20 years about how we program the hardware, manage the hardware, identify issues, even down to the manufacturing processes that we use to make sure the customer gets a high-quality product, right? If you have one and the competitor has one, you put them side by side, maybe they behave very similarly. Get 1,000, get 10,000, get 50,000 of these things, you start to notice the differences. So yes, ultimately, in the scale-up back-end network, hardware design and software management of that hardware design, the quality, the traceability, all the other intelligence that we put into our products will still be an advantage.
I mean there's a strategic element to that, too, which is the lock NVLink provides. So that also releases that lock to some extent or makes it less strong. So that's another part of Ethernet. But like Martin said, '28 is more the year we would start to expect to maybe see a little bit of something happening there.
I would just be curious to get a sense of how you think the UEC with, I think, moving a lot of the kind of routing and traffic control functionality to the NIC would affect Arista's product strategy going forward?
So June last year, when we had our Investor Day, whatever you want to call it, in New York, we talked about all our hardware being UEC-ready then. So the UEC, UET 1.0 spec that came out doesn't change the products we have, the Tomahawk 5, the Tomahawk 6, the Jericho 2C+ and Jericho3s and everything in between. They're all UEC-ready or UEC-compatible.
So then when you come back to the question I answered before about radix and scale, UEC doesn't fix how many I/Os a chip has got. I still have to build this very large network. And if it was my money I was spending on a network for AI, I'd want to go best-in-class, best-in-breed. When we think about the percentage of spend on the network infrastructure, probably more than -- well, I think optics are more than half of that. So I'm not going to save anything by going cheap on my network and have to put a third tier in. That comes back to that.
So then we say, well, what other advantages do these deep buffer systems have? It's a safety belt, belt and suspenders. I can use all the UEC features that are out there, and hopefully, they're perfect and nothing ever goes wrong. But when a link fails, when an optic fails, when I, for whatever reason, have some links that are a bit variable, don't I want the intelligence and the smarts and the buffering so that I can actually investigate, troubleshoot, remediate without just pointing at the 2 end points and going, "Which one of you mess it up?" I want intelligence in the middle, right? A month ago, 2 months ago, we talked about our AIOps, right, the EOS advantages you have for monitoring and troubleshooting within that network infrastructure. So I'm going to want to have the best network that I can get.
Okay. So maybe moving to not Tomahawk 7, but Tomahawk 6. And with the recent announcement of the -- or the launch of the chip, like what does a typical gestation period in terms of Arista working with Broadcom on a new chip and getting a product out to customers typically look like? And do you see any changes, major changes from the Tomahawk 5 generation that would sort of have implications on market share for Arista?
So Broadcom launched Tomahawk 6 2 months ago now, June? Okay. I was part of one of the launch videos that they published. So clearly, I knew about it before they launched it. I actually have one sitting on my desk at home. It's a mechanical sample, don't worry. But I've got a Tomahawk 6. And at Arista, we don't preannounce products. We don't tell you when the product is going to come out. We have that conversation with our customers under NDA. We're working on joint development. We were working on these joint development activities before Broadcom announced the chip. But we can't physically get started on the engineering until their first samples turn up and then we get to higher quantity than we got to get to production.
Broadcom has their own release process from samples to production. That will typically be anything up to a year. So you would realistically expect that our production of any product based on their silicon would align to their historical timing for samples to production. And again, I don't want to preannounce an Arista product, and I certainly don't want to speak to how long Broadcom may or may not take on this version of the chip. So when we get to whatever that point is, we expect to have a variety of products designed in cooperation with the customers that we're working with and for more general purpose markets. I think at the Tomahawk 6 generation, the leading edge is going to be quite out ahead of the mass markets. But we do expect to have a variety of products designed for the right customers and the right use cases. And in that scenario, we would absolutely expect to get our fair share of this market opportunity.
And then you're probably going to ask me what's my fair share. My #1 agree with your number. So yes, we are very excited about Tomahawk 6, the innovations around 800-gig or 1.6T. There are a few new interesting features in that silicon, which we will unleash through software, and then we'll ship the products when we've completed our development of the product and the customers are ready. What you sometimes see, and we've seen this with our joint development with customers, is we actually might be shipping a product, and we may not have told the public about it. It's going to that customer for their use cases. You've seen us do this. There's history of this, right? So you'd be careful sometimes with how you see some of these things.
One of the questions we often get from investors on this front, although we haven't really historically seen this, is why don't customers maybe pause a bit when they know 1.6T is about to be shipped and they still continue to buy 800-gig or right now, they still continue to buy 400-gig while ramping on 800-gig? Do you expect to see at any point, customers pausing? Or what is the explanation of why they don't, even though they know there's a higher bandwidth solution coming?
So there's the micro answer and there's the macro answer. So a 100-gig technology is still shipping in very high volume. Why? Why isn't everybody going to 400-gig? Well, most people don't need 400-gig. So I don't need it, why would I pay for 2x of bandwidth? It's not the same price -- it might be the same price per bit, but if I don't need it, why would I buy the next higher speed? So it's going to be driven by the use cases. Is there a use case of 1.6T? Yes. But I need optics. I need GPUs. I need NICs. I need the whole ecosystem lined up behind that. I need to have it in my hands. I need to test it. I need to qualify it. They start a new pilot and then I start plan to roll out and go forward. What I'm going to do to my business in the interim, put it on pause for a year, 18 months? So what if the technology that I'm hoping for in the future slips, gets delayed? You've taken a significant risk.
So why will people keep on deploying 800-gig? Because it's here and it's shipping in volume. Why are some customers still deploying 400-gig? Because they started rolling it out on a multiyear evolution that you can't just call a time out and switch to 800-gig without another qualification cycle. So you're going to see these overlapping waves of technology from 400-gig to 800-gig to 1.6T and 3.2T. They are coming quicker. It's good. Can customers afford to hit pause and wait for a year? Not often. There might be some parts of their infrastructure that they say, "I have no plans to go to 800-gig over here." But over here in the corner, where it's a new technology or a new deployment, I'll start with 800-gig. So you're going to see these waves and say, "There's micro answers and there's macro answers."
So we do see 800-gig growing rapidly, but 400-gig isn't in decline. These are incremental. And 1.6T comes out with the 200-gig SerDes. We don't see 800-gig dropping and we don't see 400-gig dropping. And quite frankly, 100-gig is still stable based on 25-gig SerDes. So all of those different speeds can coexist in the market at the same time. Then if you do a sum product of ports and speeds and bandwidth, the bandwidth shipping in the industry is going up year over year over year. So these are all growth opportunities.
Okay. I'm going to try and rapid fire through a few questions here.
Okay. I'll rapid fire my answers.
I'll jump around in terms of topics, so apologies for that in advance. CPO, going back to scale-up, how should we think about the need for Arista products to support CPO to gain opportunities and scale-up? Like, how critical is supporting CPO to eventually seeing share in scale-up?
So the lowest cost, lowest power connectivity for short distances is copper. So for scale-up opportunities, it may not even be CPO. We've got no objection to CPO, COBO, LPO, NOBO, whatever you want to call these technologies. We've got no objection. We will do what our customers want, but we have to be convinced that it's the right technology. And if it is, we'll absolutely implement it.
Okay, blue box. You've talked about or at least Jayshree has talked about the blue box opportunity. Give us a sense of what does it look like? How is it different from what you're doing now?
So I think it's more a case of us describing what we're already doing, and that is, I can't remember where the question came from, about hardware and software and the advantages and differentiation. Blue box is an Arista product that's got all our engineering intent baked into it, all our engineering and manufacturing diagnostics, software, intelligence, reliability, manufacturing DNA, all baked into that product. That is the Arista blue box. That's sort of the rapid fire answer. So that blue box is that. I think you'll hear a lot more about that at the Analyst Day and towards the end of the year. But certainly, we believe that our products differentiate in the market with or without the EOS software.
We haven't talked enough about our hardware advantage, including that middle layer that Martin talked about. And we want to talk more about that because we're in hardware mode now. I mean the engineering challenges are just ramping so rapidly. You probably wouldn't believe it if we were to dive into that. So we want to be a lot clearer about that advantage that Arista has. We have people like Andy Bechtolsheim that are working super hard every day. And I think most people know who that is, a pretty good hardware engineer.
So just to be clear, what you're saying is it's a hardware plus middle-layer software or firmware for the lack of a better term minus the U.S.
Right.
Yes.
And what does the margin structure on such a product look like? Like, once you take U.S. out, how materially does it impact your margin structure?
There is a margin structure on a product like that. No, we're not going to talk about margin structure there. I mean we try to get paid for our value, though. We will say that. And we do have customers who will pay for that added value, and we do add value.
Maybe let me ask it another way, how different is it going to be in a margin structure perspective from the white box companies? Where does the differentiation come in to differentiate on the margin?
Well, you get paid for value. And if you're adding value in the hardware layer, in this middle layer Martin talked about, then you get paid for that. But we aren't going to quantify the differential between those 2 things. You won't see us do that.
Okay. Fair. Moving to the front end. One of the things that you mentioned, I think, on the earnings call as well, there's definitely a pickup overall, not only in the back-end investment, but what you're seeing on the front end. We get this question a lot, like, what's driving the investments on the front end? Is it purely can you correlate that to investments in AI? Or is it a non-AI driver that's now driving the upgrades on the front end? And when you're seeing the investment on the front end, is it a volume investment? Or are customers upgrading from 400-gig to 800-gig?
So very rarely would a customer go back to a production data center, turn it off, rip out the infrastructure and replace it with 400-gig. What they do is they look at the next new deployment and say, "That's going to be the new design. I'm going to put the new design in this building." So whether it has a 100-gig to 400-gig or 400-gig to 800-gig, they're not really upgrade cycles. It's the net new wave of the new technology. For an enterprise customer, if I only need 2 data centers, then I might start an evolution and transition within one of them, and I might do that upgrade cycle.
So back to your question, the growth in the front end is multifaceted. There's definitely a pull-through from the back end, and that is that, as we're seeing more and more influence, we're seeing public reporting from customers about the impact this is having on their front-end data centers and their wide area and backbone networks, a growth in traffic as we all increasingly use these AI tools and resources, or if you're an AI as a service, enterprise customers start to deploy them. Yes, there's a growth in traffic on the front end.
And then for a few years, there was this rush to AI and maybe there was an underinvestment in some of the front end. So some of that will be a little bit of catch-up. So catch-up, driving growth of traffic and then remediation of 5-year-old and 6-year-old technology, which is a technology refresh cycle that's always there. Those are the drivers for that. We're also seeing, in the enterprise, a little bit of repatriation of traffic that may be moved to the cloud, maybe it's moving back from the cloud and there's some of that going on as well. So all of those different waves are happening at the same time. So we're having different customer conversations about what their drivers are.
Got it. Okay. Last one, a lot of focus recently on sovereign opportunities, and you had these bunch of announcements coming out of the Middle East and notable to investors has been that one of your larger peers has been mentioned and it's participating, whereas Arista has been sort of visibly absent on that front. Like, how do you think about the opportunity you're tapping into it? Is it going to be through partnerships with larger sort of partners that find their way into those announcements? Or how do you think about Arista's position to tap into the sovereign opportunity?
Yes. We would look to clearly partner with the technology companies that have already been announced for that. And again, we don't necessarily announce something until it's meaningful, real and in the rearview mirror. So don't necessarily get carried away the fact that we may or may not have been announcing any particular things. We might be involved. We might not be involved. I wouldn't necessarily read into the headlines that we're not there. Sovereign wealth funds are definitely interesting in this space, and we're fully engaged.
Okay. I will wrap it up there. All right. Thank you for the time.
Thank you.
Thank you.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — J.P. Morgan Hardware & Semis Access Forum
Arista Networks, Inc. — J.P. Morgan Hardware & Semis Access Forum
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Arista positioniert sich als Hauptlieferant für AI‑Netzwerke durch Hardware‑Exzellenz plus "Middleware"-Intelligenz; Scale‑out (große GPU‑Fabrics) bleibt kurzfristig der Umsatztreiber, Scale‑up (rack‑nahe, höhere Bandbreiten) ist ein inkrementelles, späteres TAM‑Fenster.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Scale‑up vs Scale‑out: Scale‑up ist ein neues, noch nascentes Segment; Arista erwartet, dass Ethernet‑Optionen über Zeit relevant werden und das TAM ergänzen.
- Kundenrampen: Zwei "Cloud‑Titanen" sind laut Management bei/nahe 100.000 GPUs; weitere Großkunden‑Rampen und 25–30 Neocloud/Enterprise‑Engagements treiben Volumen.
- Produktstrategie: Fokus auf kombinierte Hardware‑Qualität und EOS‑bzw. Middleware‑Intelligenz ("blue box" als integriertes Angebot); Tomahawk‑6‑Integration in Entwicklung mit engen Kunden‑NDAs.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Zeithorizont: Management nennt ca. 2028 als groben Zeitpunkt, ab dem Scale‑up über Ethernet realistisch adressierbar wird (keine festen Zahlen).
- Guidance‑Status: Kein neues finanzielles Guidance‑Update im Gespräch; Aussagen sind technologisch/marktseitig und qualitativ, keine quantitativen Revisionen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- TAM‑Diskussion: Kritische Nachfrage zu Geschwindigkeit und Marktanteilen von Ethernet vs NVLink/InfiniBand; Management sieht Ethernet als wahrscheinliche Option, Timing unklar.
- Architektur‑Debatte: DSF (disaggregated switched fabric) vs klassisches Leaf/Spine—Diskussion um Radix, Port‑Limits, Power und Skalierungspunkte.
- Chip‑Roadmap: Tomahawk‑6/1.6T: Zeit von Samples bis Volumenproduktion, gemeinsame Entwicklung mit Broadcom und Kunden; Analysten fragten nach Pausenrisiko beim Kaufverhalten.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Positiv für Langfristinvestoren: Arista zeigt technologische Nähe zu Großkunden und klare Hardware‑/Middleware‑Differenzierung. Kurzfristig bleibt Umsatzwachstum von Timing (Kundenentscheidungen, Gebäude/Power‑Limitierungen) und der Geschwindigkeit der Ethernet‑Adoption bei Scale‑up abhängig.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to the Second Quarter 2025 Arista Networks Financial Results Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and will be available for replay from the Investor Relations section on the Arista website following this call.
Mr. Rudolph Araujo, Arista's Head of Investor Advocacy, you may begin.
Thank you, Regina. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on today's call are Jayshree Ullal, Arista Networks' Chairperson and Chief Executive Officer; and Chantelle Breithaupt, Arista's Chief Financial Officer. This afternoon, Arista Networks issued a press release announcing the results for its fiscal second quarter ending June 30, 2025. If you want a copy of the release, you can access it online at our website.
During the course of this conference call, Arista Networks management will make forward-looking statements, including those relating to our financial outlook for the third quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, longer-term business model and financial outlook for 2025 and beyond. Our total addressable market and strategy for addressing these market opportunities, including AI, custom demand trends, tariffs and trade restrictions, supply chain constraints, component costs, manufacturing output, inventory management and inflationary pressures in our business, lead times, product innovation, working capital optimization and the benefit of acquisitions, which are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K and which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements.
These forward-looking statements apply as of today, and you should not rely on them as representing our views in the future. We undertake no obligation to update these statements after this call. This analysis of our Q2 results and our guidance for Q3 2025 is based on non-GAAP and excludes all non-GAAP stock-based compensation impacts, certain acquisition-related charges and other nonrecurring items. A full reconciliation of our selected GAAP to non-GAAP results is provided in our earnings release.
With that, I will turn the call over to Jayshree.
Thank you, Rudy, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this afternoon for our second quarter 2025 earnings call. Arista is experiencing momentum in our business as demonstrated in our record Q2 2025 results. We achieved $2.2 billion this quarter, surpassing our plan by $100 million. Software and service renewals contributed approximately 16.3% of revenue. Our non-GAAP gross margins of 65.6% was influenced by efficient supply chain and inventory benefit with a nonmaterial tariff impact in the quarter. International contributions for the quarter registered strongly at 21.8% with the Americas at 78.2%.
Reviewing our midyear inflection point, our conviction with AI and Cloud Titans and enterprise customers has only strengthened. We began the year with a pragmatic guide of 17% or $8.2 billion annual revenue. But as the year has progressed, we recognize the potential to build a truly transformational networking company, addressing a massive total available market. This feels to us like a unique once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. We, therefore, raised our 2025 annual growth to 25%, now targeting $8.75 billion in revenue, which is an incremental $550 million more due to our increased momentum that we are experiencing across AI, cloud and enterprise sectors.
It is important to appreciate that Arista's AI center strategy is complementing our data center focus to drive some of this increase. AI centers consist of both scale-out front-end and scale-up, scale-out combination for back-end networks. Scale-up back-end networks consist of high-bandwidth, low-latency interconnects that tightly link multiple accelerators within a single rack as a unified compute system with workload parallelism. Today, this is predominantly constructed with NVlink as a compute attached I/O, but we do expect a move to open standards such as Ethernet or UALink in the next few years.
Scale-out back-end network is dedicated spines interconnecting XPUs across racks, engineered for high bandwidth and minimal latency, thereby resulting in efficient parallel processing of massive training models. Here, InfiniBand is rapidly migrating to Ethernet based on the Ultra Ethernet Consortium specification released in June of 2025. Scale-out front-end connects the back-end clusters to external clouds, compute resources, storage, wide area networks and data center interconnect to handle data ingestion, orchestration for AI and cloud traffic in a leaf-spine network topology.
Arista's flagship Etherlink and EOS are key hallmarks of scale-out networking with a wide breadth and depth of network protocol support. Introduced in 2024, Arista's Etherlink portfolio is now 20-plus products with the most comprehensive and complete solution in the industry, especially for scale-out back-end and scale-out front-end networking. It highlights our accelerated networking approach, bringing a single point of network control and visibility differentiation and improved GPU utilization. Poor networks and bottlenecks lead to idle cycles on GPUs, wasting both capital GPU costs and operational expenses such as power and cooling.
With a 30% to 50% processing time spent in exchanging data over networks and GPU, the economic impact of building an efficient GPU cluster with good networking improves utilization, and this is super paramount. Our stated goal of $750 million back-end AI networking is well on track and gaining from nearly 0 revenue 3 years ago in 2022 to production deployments this year in 2025. As a reminder to you all, the back-end AI is all incremental revenue and incremental market share to Arista. As large language models continue to expand into distributed training and inference use cases, we expect to see the back-end and the front-end converge and call us more together. This will make it increasingly difficult to parse the back-end and the front-end precisely in the future, but we do expect an aggregate AI networking revenue to be ahead of the $1.5 billion in 2025 and growing in many years to come. We will elaborate more on this in Analyst Day in September, including our AI strategy and forecast.
What is crystal clear to us and our customers is that Arista continues to be the premier and preferred AI networking platform of choice for all flavors of AI accelerators. While majority today is NVIDIA GPUs, we are entering early pilots connecting with alternate AI accelerators, including start-up XPUs, the AMD MI series and in AI and Titan customers who are building their own XPUs.
As we continue to progress with our four top AI Titan customers, AI is also spreading its wings into the enterprise and Neocloud sectors, and we are winning approximately 25 to 30 customers to date. The rise in Agentic AI ensures any-to-any conversations with bidirectional bandwidth utilization. Such AI agents are pushing the envelope of LAN and WAN traffic patterns in the enterprise.
So speaking of WAN, we are very pleased to announce the purchase of SD-WAN leader, VeloCloud, to offer modern branches in the Agentic AI era. VeloCloud's secure AI optimized WAN portfolio offers seamless application-aware solutions to connect customer branch sites, complementing Arista's leading spines in the data center and campus. In a classic leaf-spine atomic identifier, we are enabling multipathing, encryption, in-band network telemetry, segmentation, application identification and traffic engineering across distributed enterprise sites. We are so excited to fill this missing void in our distributed enterprise puzzle to bring that holistic branch solution. This also increases our foothold with managed service providers, MSPs, as an important route to market for our distributed campus and branch offerings. We also intend to work closely with best-of-breed security partners to enable SASE overlays. Please do note that Velo is not material in 2025, and we have some work to do to restore annual revenue back to pre-Broadcom levels.
Last quarter, I shared the development and internal promotions of several tenured executives at Arista to bolster our leadership. They display that strong cultural synergy and a mission to ignite innovation and delight our customers. As we enter the next phase of Arista 2.0 growing from $5.8 billion in '23 to a forecasted $10 billion revenue in 2026, we rely on this trifecta foundation of great customers, innovative products and great next-gen leaders to achieve this.
I am so thrilled to welcome Todd Nightingale as Arista's President and Chief Operating Officer. Todd brings that incredible passion for networking with his over two decades of technical leadership in Meraki, Cisco and most recently, CEO of Fastly. In just a month, he is epitomizing the Arista way, and I'm really looking forward to his impactful contributions to boost Arista's overall campus and enterprise operations.
Todd, welcome to your first ANET earnings call. How does it feel to be here?
It's amazing. It's only been a month, but I can't tell you how impressed I am with the passion and focus of the team, the trust that Arista customers have in the technology and the enormous opportunity we have ahead of us in data center, AI and in the campus. I'll be primarily focused on our enterprise customer engagement, bringing new customers to Arista and operational excellence across the organization. Personally, I'm so incredibly excited to be back in networking, and I'm truly, truly honored to be here. Thank you so much, Jayshree.
Thank you, Todd. It's going to be a fun journey here with us. It's really an unprecedented time in networking, where Arista is so uniquely positioned to enable the modern network transformation. And with that, my dear friend, Chantelle, over to you, our CFO, for the financial specifics.
Thank you, Jayshree. With that as the backdrop of our strong business outlook, let me now take us through the metrics that underscore our momentum. Total revenues in Q2 were $2.2 billion, up 30.4% year-over-year, above our guidance of $2.1 billion. This was supported by strong growth across all of our product sectors. International revenues for the quarter came in at $481 million or 21.8% of total revenue, up from 20.3% in the prior quarter. This quarter-over-quarter increase was driven by a relatively stronger performance in our EMEA region. The overall gross margin in Q2 was 65.6%, above our guidance of 63%, up from 64.1% last quarter and up from 65.4% in the prior year quarter. The quarter-over-quarter gross margin improvement was primarily driven by improved inventory management and related excess and obsolescence reserves.
Operating expenses for the quarter were $370.6 million or 16.8% of revenue, up from last quarter at $327.4 million. R&D spending came in at $243.3 million or 11% of revenue, up from $209.4 million in the last quarter. This primarily reflected higher new product introduction costs in the period. Sales and marketing expense was $105.3 million or 4.8% of revenue compared to $94.3 million last quarter, inclusive of a continued focus on our partner programs.
Our G&A costs came in at $22 million or 1% of revenue, down from last quarter at $23.7 million. Our operating income for the quarter was $1.08 billion, crossing $1 billion for the first time in Arista's history, landing at 48.8% of revenue. Other income and expenses for the quarter was a favorable $88.6 million, and our effective tax rate was 20.7%. This resulted in net income for the quarter of $923.5 million or 41.9% of revenue. Our diluted share number was 1.271 billion shares, resulting in a diluted earnings per share number for the quarter of $0.73, up 37.7% from the prior year.
Now on to the balance sheet. Cash, cash equivalents and investments ended the quarter at $8.8 billion. In the quarter, we repurchased $196 million of our common stock at an average price of $80.70 per share. Of the $1.5 billion repurchase program approved in May 2025, $1.4 billion remains available for repurchase in future quarters. The actual timing and amount of future repurchases will be dependent on market and business conditions, stock price and other factors.
Now turning to operating cash performance for the second quarter. We generated approximately $1.2 billion in cash from operations in the period, the highest in Arista's history, reflecting a strong business model performance. DSOs came in at 67 days, up from 64 days in Q1, driven by billing linearity. Inventory turns were 1.4x, flat to last quarter. Inventory increased to $2.1 billion in the quarter, up from $2 billion in the prior period, reflecting an increase in our finished goods inventory, which is an outcome of our global tariff and supply chain management.
Our purchase commitments and inventory at the end of the quarter totaled $5.7 billion, up from $5.5 billion at the end of Q1. We expect this number to stabilize as supplier lead times improve, but will continue to have some variability in future quarters as a reflection of demand for our new product introductions. Our total deferred revenue balance was $4.1 billion, up from $3.1 billion in Q1. The majority of the deferred revenue balance is services related and directly linked to the timing and term of service contracts, which can vary on a quarter-by-quarter basis. Our product deferred revenue increased approximately $687 million versus last quarter.
We remain in a period of ramping our new products, winning new customers and expanding new use cases, including AI. These trends have resulted in increased customer-specific acceptance clauses and an increase in the volatility of our product deferred revenue balances. As mentioned in prior quarters, the deferred balance can move significantly on a quarterly basis independent of underlying business drivers. Accounts payable days was 65 days, up from 49 days in Q1, reflecting the timing of inventory receipts and payments. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $24 million. In October 2024, we began our initial construction work to build expanded facilities in Santa Clara, and we expect to incur approximately $100 million in CapEx during fiscal year 2025 for this project.
Now turning to guidance. Building on this strong Q2 first half performance, we expect continued momentum in the quarters ahead. Let's first start with our outlook for fiscal year 2025. As Jayshree mentioned, revenue growth is now estimated to be approximately 25% or $8.75 billion. This is fueled by demand across AI, cloud and enterprise sectors and demonstrates that Arista's focus on pure-play networking is meeting the innovation needs of the market. One item to note, of this revenue guide raise, we are now increasing our campus revenue target to be between $750 million and $800 million, inclusive of the minimal amount expected from the VeloCloud acquisition in FY '25.
We are excited to welcome VeloCloud to our team. And as stated earlier, we are working through integrating and enhancing the business model to better serve our customers. For gross margin, a range is expected of approximately 63% to 64%, inclusive of possible known tariff scenarios and benefiting from improved inventory management. For operating margin, the outlook is approximately 48%, a testament to the ability of Arista to scale efficiently and effectively.
Given the strength of our business and visibility into customer demand, here is our guidance for the Q3 quarter. Revenue of approximately $2.25 billion, continuing to serve our customers and win new logos across AI, data, WAN and campus centers. Gross margin of approximately 64%, inclusive of possible known tariff scenarios. Operating margin of approximately 47%, and an effective tax rate expected to be approximately 21.5% with approximately 1.275 billion diluted shares.
In closing, this is a great time to be an innovative networking leader. We are halfway through the year with solid momentum and are clear on our execution priorities. This makes us confident and excited in our ability to finish the year strongly. In closing, I would also like to wish Todd a very warm welcome to the Arista team.
I will now turn the call back to Rudy for Q&A.
Thank you, Chantelle. We will now move to the Q&A portion of the Arista earnings call. [Operator Instructions] Regina, please take it away.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of George Notter with Wolfe Research.
2. Question Answer
Appreciate it. I guess, I wanted to -- the results are terrific, certainly, but I wanted to ask about the competitive environment. I know many investors in recent weeks and months have been looking at some of the growth at Celestica and certainly NVIDIA's networking business and kind of projecting some of that strength on as being negative for Arista. I guess I was just curious about your perspective on that. How you see the competitive environment? How you see your differentiation? Anything you can say there would be great.
Sure, George, and welcome to Wolfe. Thank you for the wishes. Look, we've always lived in a very competitive industry, whether it was -- it is, I shouldn't say it was Cisco or specific networking vendors. And we acknowledge the NVIDIA's participation both with InfiniBand and bundling with the GPUs. We've always acknowledged the coexistence with white box. So from our perspective, the competitive landscape has not changed, it's more of the same, but I recognize that the chatter was louder. And we understand that given the volatility of some of our customers, some years and some quarters are better. So I think some of the chatter was louder because our Meta share wasn't growing the same way as it did year-over-year in the prior years.
But from our perspective, our innovation and differentiation has never been stronger at a platform performance level, at a feature level. And I want to add a third one, which is at a customer intimacy level. They are so appreciative of the support, the quality and the way we approach how to solve their problems. So no change in our environment on innovation. There's plenty of chatter outside. I appreciate that. I understand that, and I hope we have proved the naysayer is wrong.
Our next question comes from the line of Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.
I guess just on some of the strength that you're seeing in terms of cloud. I know it's getting increasingly hard to kind of differentiate front-end and back-end. But do you attribute some of the upside that you're seeing this year towards starting to see front-end upgrades maybe quicker than expected? Or is this just kind of back-end demand being stronger than expected?
Thanks, Meta. No, if you recall 2, 3 years ago, maybe it's hard to remember all of that, I was actually very worried that the cloud spending had a little bit frozen, and all of the excitement and enthusiasm was going towards GPU and how big is your GPU cluster, that kind of thing. We now see it coming back and the pendulum swinging into a more balanced deployment of both cloud and AI. And I think as a result of all these AI deployments, as I've often said, the traffic patterns of cloud and AI are very different. The diversity of the flows, the distribution of the flows, the fidelity of the flows, the duration, the size and intensity. So all of that AI traffic and deployments we have done and others have done is now putting pressure on the front-end cloud as well.
So that's why it's going to get -- we wanted to measure ourselves as purely on the native GPU connections. But going forward, we see a much more distributed topology of cloud and AI sort of combining together. And it's not like HPC clusters where they'll build one and tear it down. When they build an AI cluster, it's very expensive. It's like diamonds, and they want to take advantage of that and bring it forward to other cloud resources as well. So to the point -- the question you were asking, our increased $550 million had a little bit of Velo, not material, as Chantelle reminds me, but a lot of cloud and AI as well as enterprise campus.
Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Koontz with Needham & Company.
I want to ask maybe a question for Todd, Jayshree. Just about the fit for Velo with your traditional go-to-market motion, which has been heavily direct and you expect Velo to really beef up your channel efforts and working with these MSPs. Can you expand that a little bit?
Yes. I think it's incredibly complementary on two fronts. One is it fills an enormous hole in the enterprise campus portfolio for the distributed branch. And being able to bring Velo technology through our traditional Arista channel gives us an opportunity to cross-sell SD-WAN into so many existing campus accounts with the existing Arista go-to-market, which is amazing. But Velo has a really strong MSP motion. We're pushing really hard right now in really embracing that not just to continue the Velo's success, but to now bring all of Arista's portfolio through that same channel through those same partners and really embrace that MSP motion and use the Velo intellectual property in their business operation in order to learn from that and bring that MSP motion to all of Arista's portfolio.
Well said, Todd. Sometimes with the engine and sometimes with the caboose. In the case of the MSP, we're definitely going to leverage the strength of Velo.
Our next question comes from the line of Antoine Chkaiban with New Street Research.
Can you please remind us what's required for scale-up technologies and how that differs from scale-outs? Are traffic patterns more predictable, easier to manage? And how do you see the competitive dynamic evolving? Does this create more differentiation for Arista or more room for white box compared to scale-out?
Yes. So first of all, I would say that scale-up is a new and unique requirement, and it particularly is going to come in as people start building more and more AI racks, right? So when you're building an AI rack and you want to boost the ratings and performance of an individual rack or cluster and your XPU ratings gets bigger and bigger, you often need a very simple interconnect, right? This interconnect in the past has been PCIe Express, CXL and now you're seeing a lot of NVIDIA NVLink where you can really collapse your system board and XPU socket into an I/O. It's almost not a network, it's an I/O. It's a back-end to a back-end, if I can call it that, right?
And so scale-up networks will be an incremental new market as Arista pursues it. Today, majority of that market lies inside a compute network structure and isn't something Arista is participating in. But we are very encouraged by the standards for Scale-Up Ethernet that Broadcom has initiated and we're big fans of. We think that Ethernet as a transport protocol is going to favor Arista and Broadcom very much. And any little bit of incremental share we get there will be better than the 0 we have right now.
We also think UALink is another spec that's coming out, and that may run as an overlay on top of an Ethernet underlay. There needs to be some firm standards there because today, scale-up is frankly all proprietary NVLink. And we're encouraged by -- just like we worked hard to found the Ultra Ethernet Consortium as a member for some of the back-end Ethernet and the migration from InfiniBand to Ethernet is literally happening in 3 to 5 years. We expect the same phenomenon on scale-up.
Our next question comes from the line of Amit Daryanani with Evercore.
Congrats on a nice set of numbers here. Jayshree, as I think about the 25% guide that you folks are talking about for the full year, which is really impressive. Can you just talk about what are you seeing specifically that's enabling you to raise your guide from 17% to 25%? Just what markets or what vectors are you seeing that make you feel better about it? And then do you see the potential for this higher growth to be more durable as Arista realizes this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity as you talked about in your call?
Okay. Well, thank you for the wishes, Amit. As you know, it's not easy to execute on large numbers. So durable board gets harder and harder as the numbers get bigger and bigger. But we've always believed in a CAGR of mid-teens. We've always believed in double digits. So we hope we will continue to grow for many years to come in those kind of numbers.
Coming back to your question, I think when we guided the year pragmatically back in February, what Chantelle and I saw was a lot of activity, but not a lot of confirmation. Sitting here in August now, that activity has translated in all three sectors into a lot of confirmation. Enterprise campus, I couldn't be more bullish. We had a record quarter in terms of demand. Obviously, we had to ship, but it's the strongest we felt.
And as Todd might appreciate, since he created a lot of Meraki, as you look at the campus, this is going to be very strategic, very large and very important because it's a large TAM of $25 billion to $30 billion. So getting new logos, getting our value and our differentiation, especially in the post-pandemic era, understood in terms of wired, wireless, IoT, segmentation security, Zero Trust, zero-touch provisioning was critical. We saw that shift happen in the first half of this year.
On AI, I don't need to tell you that despite losing one of our key anchor customers, the fifth customer was a sovereign AI customer that's pretty much out of these numbers. We were still able to, we believe, achieve $750 million in back-end targets revenue and exceed $1.5 billion for the year. Exact numbers, we'll know when we finally ship. We can't give you those specifics now. But despite losing one customer, we're having a lot of activity in the four big ones. And it's pleasantly a surprise to us to see the advent of enterprise and even some new clouds. The numbers are small. It's not as big as the large titans, but it's all adding up.
And then the third thing, as I was telling Meta was the cloud itself. When you start putting that kind of pressure on performance and bandwidth and capacity on the back end of the network, eventually, you've got to go refresh the front-end cloud. So we're seeing many more migrations from 100 to 400 gig and even 800, and that's helping. So all three are contributing to this new growth we are projecting for the year.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs.
I just have one and one follow-up. I guess for Chantelle, I'm just wondering if you could just comment a little bit more on the deferred revenue or the billings growth. What was the primary driver there? And I was wondering if that was a contributor to the magnitude of the guidance increase that we saw.
And then second, Jayshree, you mentioned the path towards $10 billion in 2026. Quite a ways out, but maybe you can just speak to some of the things that you're seeing. I know you talked a lot through it, but the confidence in that number and things that could break in the right way that could result in that number even being better.
Yes. I think for the first one, thank you for your question, it's in sense of from the deferred balance between products and services, this is indicative of new product, new use case, AI, as I mentioned in my remarks, and it's across those categories. And as far as this year, the deferred is going to be this year, next year because it's 12, 18, 24 months. Some of the use cases that we have in there, to your point. So it's always helpful to have the deferred revenue balance growing. It does move and does move with volatility given some of the sizes of some of these new use cases and new product introductions. So more to come, but we don't guide it. So I would say that those are the factors that go into it for your question. And then Jayshree, did you want to mention?
Yes. Thank you, Michael. A couple of things. Even on '25, I think the parallel for me to, because I'm such a historian and I have so many years behind me, if you look at the cloud, we had a lot of deferred. And on one hand, I can tell you guys, don't pay attention it, it will eventually come out and something will come in. But it is a very high level of experimentation with new GPUs, traffic patterns, the number of GPUs and location of the GPUs, the distribution of GPUs, the traffic patterns, there's a lot more work going on there. And customers are experimenting. Customers are seeing GPUs every 18 months. We have to adapt to that. We have to look at performance. We have to look at high availability. We have to look at automation visibility. So it's a nontrivial amount of complex work.
And oh, by the way, often these are not brand new. It's part of a brownfield where we're trying to do all this. The car is running at 100 miles an hour, and we're trying to add AI to it kind of problem. So don't underestimate that this deferred that's been going on since last year will continue this year and perhaps next as well. And the length of deferred is taking longer.
So on one hand, I'll say, don't pay too much attention to it. Sometimes it will come out, sometimes it will go in. On the other hand, this is definitely more because of AI than anything else. In terms of 2026, I think it's only fair we save Analyst Day for that. We did announce that. But look, I would be remiss if I didn't tell you, I'm very proud of the team, and we're looking to achieve $10 billion in revenue in 2026, 2 years ahead of schedule. I promised you guys that back in the last Analyst Day in 2028. So there you go. That's the headline.
Our next question comes from the line of Simon Leopold with Raymond James.
I know you don't like to give us specifics on customer contributions. I guess what I'm really trying to see if you could help us is understanding how that might be shifting given that it does seem like there should be some broadening with the Neoclouds, the sovereigns and enterprise. But at the same time, some of your biggest customers are growing their spending significantly. So any clues or hints or quantification you can offer to help us better appreciate what your concentration and largest customer mix looks like and is trending towards?
Yes. I'll try my best. But the minute we call them a Titan, which we now have included some customers in the Titan that previously weren't and we've moved people -- customers out of the Titans into the specialty providers, you know they have a big spend. So you should not be surprised to see at least 10% concentration from our two favorite customers. And we will get greater contribution from our other customers, even if they are not 10% because of the AI investments.
So our AI titans, if you will, and our cloud titans are going to make a meaningful read high contribution to the year. That's 1/2 of us. That's 1/2 of the coin. The other half is why we're so excited to have Todd. Don't underestimate the power of all these customers coming together as an aggregate adding to a very high number. So it's not your one Titan. As a collection, they're a Titan, but each one of them by themselves are a meaningful contributor.
So what Todd's team, along with Chris Schmidt, Chris Belmer, Ashwin are doing is just fantastic. So we're really going to have a balanced approach of two very meaningful businesses contributing together. But definitely, AI is going to create that large investments, large CapEx that you guys have all seen from our customers is going to translate into some investments into us, too. We're equally excited about the enterprise.
Our next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America.
I want to talk about the sustainability of growth. Tomahawk 6 was delayed. And the question is whether there is any correlation between the delays in Tomahawk 6 and your growth? Are customers buying more now than before, maybe they waited for it? And then also another -- like a follow-up on the sustainability of growth is also sustainability of margins. At 49% -- almost 49% operating margin, when do you start to upset your customers, your big customers because they have an alternative to buy white boxes and it's cheaper. Do you have that much of a differentiation that justifies paying a lot more for a product versus white boxes, assuming that on white boxes, the manufacturer doesn't make 49% margin?
Okay, Tal. That's a loaded question on sustainability. So have we had sustainability over the last 15 years? Have we had white box over the last 15 years? I mean, I'm asking these questions rhetorically. I'm not expecting you to answer them. But look, it's going to be competitive, and there's a set of throwaway white boxes that are -- that some sort of ODM manufacturers will build where they don't need all the value. And particularly in the leaf situation, we can see that. If you don't need features, you don't need value, then you probably won't pay the premium price.
But I also want to add that 49% operating margin is not a function of just our value, it's a function of our efficiency. This company knows how to do more with less. We don't just throw thousands of marketing people, salespeople or engineers on one problem. We architect it correctly, and we've always been efficient. And I challenge you to find somebody -- some other company that does it more efficiently. So that's not a white box problem. That's an efficiency. And our customers appreciate that we don't have layers and hierarchies and big company corporate stuff, and we do this efficiently.
So they're kind of two different things. No doubt, we will coexist with white box. No doubt a set of customers will appreciate our support, our quality, our innovation and would be willing to pay the premium because as I've often said to you, too, as well, Tal, you can trade CapEx for OpEx and vice versa. You can buy a cheap box and then you can support it yourself and you're going to need hundreds of engineers to do that. That's one model. And the other is Arista, where we'll put in the buffers, the congestion control, the value, the EOS and hopefully, you will need less support staff to do that.
You did ask me about Tomahawk 6. I mean, Broadcom has been a fantastic partner. I don't think they're late on it. This is very complex silicon. Tomahawk 6 is in our labs. Stay tuned for new product next year.
Our next question comes from the line of James Fish with Piper Sandler.
Great quarter. Jayshree, for you. We've talked a little bit in the past about blue box and white box. I guess what are you seeing on sort of the blue box side versus full system with some of your main customers? And Todd, sorry, you can't escape me here. The VeloCloud side of things. Obviously, that space has evolved where it's gone into the SASE mode. Jayshree, you even said like, hey, we're going to partner with our security partners for a full SASE. But do you need to think about that more directly just because it is becoming a world where customers are looking for a full SASE offering from one throat to choke as they say? I guess how are you thinking about a broader SASE offering as opposed to just having the SD-WAN part?
Do you want to take the first one first while I figure out his first question -- the second one?
Yes. We are looking very carefully at how we support customers from a fully integrated SASE SD-WAN solution. It's a secure WAN that matters. And delivering that solution with great assurance is something that certainly is top of mind for us. But I think we have a real opportunity to do that with partners, partnership. There are so many amazing cloud security vendors out there right now, and we have so many customers that work with the Velo solution along with those partners. That's, I think, the way we're going to be leaning in moving forward, but certainly, we'll be talking more about that at Investor Day later this year.
Yes. Just to add to what Todd said, James. We see the bifurcation of SD-WAN sort of there's a fork in the road in two ways. One is where there's a security angle on it. And if it's just simple security, encryption, segmentation, a firewall, we can do that. But if it's really the cloud security like Zscaler or Palo Alto do, we will absolutely work with best-of-breed partners and not pretend to be something we're not. So our branch infrastructure to support security is very much an Arista priority. Our branch infrastructure, as Todd said, to become a SASE, a secure WAN is an overlay on top of that, that we work with our partners.
But we really see, like I said, that fork in the road where SD-WAN isn't just a SASE solution, it's also a branch solution. When you have all these campuses with large headquarters and then your home is a branch, your retail is a branch, your library is a branch, you need a mini solution of our campus. And this is where I think VeloCloud will really shine with Arista products with our wired, wireless. And bringing all of that CloudVision and VeloCloud orchestrator together for a seamless provision is a big goal of us, all the way from the multi-domain CloudVision to the cognitive unified edge and experience down to the branch. So we're excited about that fork in the road and one we'll partner and then one we'll build more integration ourselves.
Blue box, very much an important part of our strategy, still in strategy form. We expect to see that evolve in the next few years. We haven't had to build that muscle yet because we're still in crazy AI mode, but we absolutely will complement and coexist with the white box to offer Arista blue box. And what do I mean by that? Means a very battle-tested, highly well-designed hardware, the way Andy Bechtolsheim and his team know how to do can be delivered as an upgrade or as a better hardened white box. And we fully plan to do that. And in fact, do that with bundled software today.
Our next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.
Jayshree, strong set of results here, and congratulations on the strong outlook as well. If I go back to your comments about the ability to meet the $750 million AI back-end number even as the fifth customer is absent now, is that largely stemming from bigger cluster size deployments from your existing Tier 1 customers? Or is something else moving around in terms of timing of those deployments relative to expectations? And just as a follow-up, I think the fourth customer you had earlier referenced was much slower in terms of activity. So can you just give us an update on that front?
That's a good question, Samik. Thank you for the wishes as well. So I think two of our customers have already approached or going to fast -- quickly approach 100,000 GPUs. But I don't think it's any more about just how big we used to talk about 1 million GPUs and all that. Increasingly, what we are seeing is more and more distributed GPU clusters for training and inference. And so two customers have reached that goal. The third one might reach that goal. The fourth one that I said we just begin with is probably too early to reach that 100,000. That's probably a goal for next year. So that's the composition. Two are strong, one is medium and the other still does.
But to make that number or actually to exceed that number, you may have noticed that I pointed out that we now have in an aggregate, I think last time we said 15 and now we're saying 25 to 30 enterprise and Neocloud customers. So they're not big individually, but together, they add up to contribute as well for the loss of the fifth customer and the slowness of the fourth. So we believe with the increase in $550 million that AI will be a contributor to that and exactly how it will shape up will depend on what we ship out, but feeling really good.
And I won't measure it anymore just on number of GPUs. I think there's a lot more to do with locality, distribution, radix and also choice of multi-tenants, optimizations, collective libraries, level of resilience, et cetera. So we're seeing a lot more complexity run into this than straight number of GPUs.
Our next question comes from the line of Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.
Congrats on the quarter. This probably builds on a few of the earlier questions. But Jayshree, I'm curious as we think about the sovereign AI opportunity, whether or not that's factoring at all into kind of what you're seeing currently? I know you alluded to a fifth customer, which was a sovereign falling out. But I'm curious how you think about that opportunity set, what you're seeing as far as customer engagements. And if we should kind of think about that as becoming a more material incremental driver as we look through 2026 and beyond.
Yes. No, Aaron, that's a good point. We've once bitten twice shy. So since our fifth customer was a sovereign AI and it didn't work out, we're certainly not factoring it into our numbers this year. But we haven't lost faith our hope that, that could be an important segment for us in the next several years. I think there's going to be a lot of expanded build-outs. In fact, one of the Neoclouds is a sovereign AI, which is a non-NVIDIA cluster that they're working with right now that may factor in 2026. But having said that, it's still early days, and we are cautiously optimistic.
Our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.
Jayshree, you talked about Scale-Up Ethernet to be incremental to your TAM. Curious if you have any sense how big this TAM is in 3 years.
Atif, I don't know yet. In terms of port density, in terms of units, if I look at the ratio within a rack versus outside in units, it's quite high, 8:1, 10:1. But in terms of dollars, I don't think it's nearly as much because the level of functionality required is much simpler. So how about we beg that question out for September when we'll know more?
That's a deal. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. I owe you an answer.
Our next question will come from the line of Karl Ackerman with BNP Paribas.
Jayshree, you noted you are seeing good activity with the top 4 hyperscalers. While you indicated that your back-end revenue this year will be primarily driven by two of them, would you expect that all four cloud providers would adopt Arista switches for back-end deployments in 2026? And I guess where are you seeing the most opportunities with these Neocloud providers because that certainly could be a big opportunity as we see in time?
So Karl, the short answer would be yes. We've got some work to do, but the answer is absolutely. All four of them -- two of them already have large and the other two will be deployed in the back end. It will also fuel the front end. And in terms of Neoclouds, almost always, the Neocloud is a combination of back and front. It's never one or just the other, but definitely, the Neoclouds also have a back-end component.
Our final question will come from the line of David Vogt with UBS.
Jayshree, I just wanted to maybe pick your brain a little bit. You mentioned scale-up, but can we talk about the competitive or maybe the technical opportunities with scale-out with Jericho 4 that was announced today or yesterday and how you're thinking about kind of what that means for your technology position with regards to sort of distributed AI going forward? I know scale-up is an incremental opportunity, but maybe just kind of share your thoughts on where you stand scale-out.
Dave, this is a really good thoughtful question because this is our bread and butter. Arista is the premier scale-out spine platform. The 7800 spine, our AI spine is a really flagship franchise platform. It takes advantage of all of the virtual output queuing, the congestion control, the peripheral queuing, the buffering, et cetera, in a way that nobody else in the industry has been able to demonstrate. And oh, by the way, besides being a great AI spine, it's also a great routing platform for the WAN.
So this product is sort of the anchor for a lot of things we do at scale-out, both on the back end and front end, and has been our workhorse for some time. And it's only been -- much of what we've done so far is 400 gig with Jericho 4. Congratulations, Broadcom. We're looking forward to the 800 gig and then beyond for others as well. So thank you for reminding us that we're continuing to push the envelope of innovation, and we fully expect the series that we started with R1, R2, R3 to evolve to R4, all in the context of a very consistent software and platform architecture.
This concludes Arista Networks Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. We have posted a presentation that provides additional information on our results, which you can access on the Investors section of our website. Thank you for joining us today and for your interest in Arista.
Thank you for joining, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Arista Networks, Inc. — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $2,2 Mrd. (+30,4% YoY; +$100M vs Guidance).
- Bruttomarge: 65,6% (non‑GAAP), über Guidance von 63%—Verbesserung durch Inventory-Management.
- Betriebsgewinn: $1,08 Mrd. (48,8% der Umsätze), erstes Quartal >$1 Mrd.
- Ergebnis je Aktie: $0,73 diluted (+37,7% YoY); Verwässerte Aktien ~1,271 Mrd.
- Bilanz & Cash: $8,8 Mrd. Cash; Rückkäufe $196M im Quartal, $1,4 Mrd. ausstehend vom Programm.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- AI‑Center‑Strategie: Fokus auf "scale‑up" (rack‑intern) und "scale‑out" (rack‑übergreifend) Back‑/Front‑end‑Netzwerke; Ziel $750M Back‑end‑AI und >$1,5B AI‑Netzwerk 2025.
- Produktdifferenz: Etherlink und EOS (Aristas Netzwerk‑OS) als Leistungs‑ und Sichtbarkeitsvorteil; Betonung auf GPU‑Utilization und Latenzreduktion.
- Markt & M&A: Übernahme von VeloCloud für SD‑WAN/Branch und MSP‑Channel; VeloCloud 2025 nicht material, soll Channel/MSP‑Go‑to‑Market stärken.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- FY2025: Jahreswachstum nun ~25% / Ziel $8,75 Mrd. (zuvor $8,2 Mrd.). Campusziel $750–800M inkl. VeloCloud.
- Q3‑Leitlinien: Umsatz ≈ $2,25 Mrd., Bruttomarge ≈ 64%, operative Marge ≈ 47%, effektiver Steuersatz ≈ 21,5%, ~1,275 Mrd. verwässerte Aktien.
- Risiken: Deferred Revenue‑Volatilität, Lieferketten, Tarife und Kunden‑Volatilität; detailliertere Analyst‑Day‑Infos im September.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Wettbewerb: Fragen zu NVIDIA/InfiniBand, White‑Box und Celestica; Management betont Plattform‑Differenzierung und Kunden‑nähe, bleibt aber defensiv gegenüber externem "Chatter".
- Nachhaltigkeit: Analysten hinterfragten hohe operative Marge (≈49%) und Preisprämie gegenüber White‑Box; Management verweist auf Effizienz als Hebel.
- AI‑Kunden & Billing: Nachfrage‑mix (4 starke Titanen, Neoclouds/Enterprise wachsen) und steigendes Deferred Revenue wurden thematisiert; Management gibt keine granularen Kundenzahlen, verweist auf weiterer Transparenz bei Analyst Day.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Solide Quarter mit Guides‑Anhebung und sehr hohen Margen sowie starker Cash‑Generierung. Chancen aus AI‑Netzwerkmarkt und VeloCloud‑Integration sind substantiell; Risiken bleiben Konzentration auf große Kunden, volatile Deferred‑Revenue‑Buchungen und makrobedingte Lieferketten/Tarif‑Einflüsse.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Special Call - Arista Networks, Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Great. Thanks, everybody, so much for joining us today. We're going to talk about Demystifying AI networking. It's my pleasure to have Hardev and Martin with me today kind of dive into the market, what we're seeing in AI in this fast-moving market. So we'll start with some introductions, then do some data defining piece here of how big these markets are and then get into a further discussion. It's going to be a great time, and I'm looking forward to it.
So with that, I'm Alan Weckel, technology analyst at 650 Group, and we're going to kind of dive into the market. So first, let's do some introductions of Hardev and Martin. Hardev, why don't you kick off with your background and role at Arista?
Sure. Thank you. My name is Hardev Singh. I'm the General Manager for Cloud Titans and AI, and I've been at Arista for just over 4 years now.
And I'm Martin Hull. I'm the Vice President and General Manager of the platform product management team, so responsible for the data center class products, which, of course is the same as the AI class of products. And I've been at Arista a little bit over 14 years.
Awesome. Great. Martin, I still remember the first time we met in person. So time flies there for sure. Before we dive into the topic at hand, let's talk a little bit about AI networking, what it is, what it's different. I find the question very interesting as I think everyone has a good hands-on traditional DC switching. And then suddenly, we had AI show up. And now we've got multiple AI networks from front end to back end, Scale Up to Scale Out and then we have the protocols as well like Ethernet, InfiniBand, NVLink, UALink, et cetera. You talked a lot to customers, Hardev. Can you kind of break this down a little bit what exactly is Scale Up and Scale Out, what's the same as the past and what's kind of different and what are customers asking you about?
Sure, Alan. If you look at the high-level picture, you have the Scale Up network and the Scale Out network. Let me try and go after this Scale Up first. So the Scale Up network is typically a network within a rack. So these are accelerators within a rack that connects to this network, which is at a very high bandwidth. And you can imagine if you have multiple of these accelerators connected to HBMs, which is High Bandwidth Memory, and they want to access memory of different accelerators, you really need very high-bandwidth network. So Scale Up again is the network connecting the GPUs within a rack.
Now today, that can be tens of GPUs going into hundreds of GPUs. With the latest Tomahawk 6, that was announced earlier this week, you can actually theoretically go up to 512 GPUs, right? So that's the Scale Up network. Scale Out is the network that connects to multiple of these accelerator servers. So that's when you're talking to connect to maybe hundreds, thousands or tens of thousands of these GPUs.
And within the Scale Out network, you have this concept of back-end network as well as the front-end network. So let's see what's the distinction there. Back-end is the network that directly connects to the GPUs. This is 100% RDMA traffic, GPUs talking to each other. They are typically 400-gig, now 800-gig connectivity, the round trip time is pretty small, about 10 microseconds. And this is where the training happens, right? So these GPUs are working on these AI workloads, with this communication libraries, exchanging these gradients, it's really a distributed computing problem.
The front-end network is the network where you have storage, you have CPU-based compute. So this would be your compute that would feed in data into the back end for training or even inference it as well as connectivity to the WAN or the metro. So here, the traffic patterns are slightly different. You'll have some RDMA traffic, you'll have TCP traffic, you'll have NVMe traffic for storage. And this is similar to the classic data center. So at a high level, that's a distinction between back-end, front end, Scale Out and Scale Up. From an architecture perspective, it doesn't change much. You have the same leaf-spine architecture, just that the bandwidth is kind of different from the back-end, front-end as well as the Scale Up.
So the other way to think about it, Alan, is that what many customers think about as their existing data center, that's the classic data center. That is the front-end. So while customers have been building out for the last decade or so is now classic, believe it or not, it's like the Coca-Cola commercials. So the back-end network is almost a new introduction of a new area of their networking, but really, it's not that fundamentally different from their existing front-end or classic networks. You're still going to be using high-performance, open networking technologies to connect high-performance GPUs, DPUs, accelerators into a cluster, so we're happy to be here to talk about how we demystify some of this terminology, and let's get started.
Yes, absolutely. I think it's interesting because as you mentioned, we used to have one network, and we understood that well. And now we're adding in this new domain, this brand-new network. And not only are we doing it, we're doing it quickly and the bandwidth requirements of that network are really amazing. So the pace of innovation is occurring faster. And I think that causes some confusion. So I'm going to share some slides. I think it's kind of a good intro to do some market sizing, which we all know I love to do.
And we'll kind of start there and set the stage for AI here. So where we are today in AI is in the agentagentic wave. And we can argue exactly when that started. But over the next couple of years, we're going to spend over $1 trillion in infrastructure equipment, so compute, storage, networking to support this agentagentic wave. And to me, that's a mind-blowing number. So I tried to quantify that a little bit differently.
And it means since we just started talking. We've shipped thousands of switch ports into the data center. So good job guys. You shipped thousands of ports since we started here. It's just a tremendous new volume compared to what we were used to in the past. And the good news of that spend, right, is networking is going to really be the glue of that connects that together. So we're talking about a huge amount of money being spent here and ultimately, a significant amount of that will be on networking in order to stitch these GPU, xPU clusters together. And what that means, going back to this pace of innovation is by the end of the decade, the vast majority of infrastructure in the data center is going to be AI or accelerated.
So we got a good handle on traditional compute. And by the end of the decade, I think we're going to have a really good handle on AI. It's going to be the dominant amount of spend in the data center. And that's going to change considerably when we think about Scale Up and Scale Out network opportunity, which we'll get to in a second. So speaking of the AI network and kind of diving into that, everyone loves to kind of talk about the data center as it's one fabric. Then Hardev and Martin, you did a really good job earlier kind of highlighting that it's different and expanding rapidly.
And this chart helps to kind of frame that. If we look at bandwidth growing in the data center, you can see that AI is growing at nearly 100% per year. In other words, what we're throwing at AI now is twice as much as we did a year ago. And next year, it's going to be twice as much as we're doing today. And what that ends up looking like is the chart on the right, where most of the traffic in the data center is going to be AI-related very, very rapidly.
It also brings to the point that all these other networks are ultimately going to have a very large tailwind from this when we talk about DCI and connecting these facilities together or when we begin talking about traditional compute, everything is going to have to be brought up to a certain standard or a certain speed in order to support what we're doing in these AI clusters. So I think, let us kind of have a little bit of a conversation here on this chart. But if we look at what's occurring, we used to have that traditional network and now we have both Scale Up and Scale Out.
And within those domains kind of in Scale Out, that's where we have the InfiniBand versus Ethernet debate. And then when we talk about Scale Up, that's where we get NVLink versus Ethernet. We see UALink, the Ultra Ethernet spec will play an important role there. So it's not just about one network. It's really about these multiple networks there. So I'll kind of ask both of you a question. When was the first time with customers, you began hearing about more than one network in AI. For yourselves, I'm sure, it was a few years ago. But what was that defining moment where there was going to be more than one network in your mind?
So it's difficult to really put a pin on that one and get an exact date. I think back to when we launched our 400 gig networking technology, I can't remember it was 4 years ago, 5 years ago. Mark Foss, I know will always correct me when we did a launch. When we first introduced 400-gig, we set the primary use case with data center interconnect and everybody agreed.
We said the secondary use case of that 400-gig technology was going to be for AI and ML networks. And at that time, people were questioning what I meant by an AI and ML network. So 4 years ago, 5 years ago, when we introduced our 400 gig technologies. I think it's when people started to identify that there were dedicated use cases for dedicated AI networks.
Since then, I mean, it's been a little bit over 2 years, 2.5 years since ChatGPT burst onto the scene. And I think we can almost date this era as ChatGPT arrived and all of a sudden, everybody was talking about AI networks. So whether it's 4 or 5 years ago or whether it's 2.5 years ago, around about that time frame is when I think we started to think about AI as being different to the classic traditional data center networks.
Yes. I mean, to add to Martin, we were actually working with our large customers on AI networks before AI even became such a big thing. We were working with them on features on load balancing, a few of these large customers had AI workloads with the first generation of GPUs, the A100. So we really built our software stack to support those AI networks. And whether it was features around load balancing, with features around visibility, telemetry, visibility at the NIC level. So we, in a way, got a head start on working on AI before it kind of really exploded.
And to your question, Alan, the difference between this AI network and what you call the classic cloud from a network architecture is normally different. It's the same leaf spine architecture, but the speeds are radically different. If you look at the AI back end, you're mostly at 400-gig, 800-gig. Most of the traffic is RDMA. The round trip times are small, 10 microsecond compared to the front-end network, which is more classic like where you have storage, you have NVMe traffic. You have TCP/IP traffic, right? You have CPU-based compute, you have wide area connectivity. So from an architecture, they're similar, but the speeds are quite different between the back end and the front end.
Yes, absolutely. I've never been at a point in time where you could create a forecast like the one on this chart, where we go from a market that was 0 or just related really to HPC to one where we're going to be reaching 100 billion in the not-so-distant future beyond this forecast, it's absolutely incredible out there. So I think this chart helps frame that, right, as we look at AI that kind of front-end network, the more traditional one, that has a huge expensive role as we talk about these clusters getting larger.
We've done a good job talking about Scale Out, and then we see Scale Up coming in kind of for those GPU, GPU cash in coherent networks. It becomes a very, very large TAM. But I think behind the scenes, things get a little bit more confusing. So these charts are looking at the exact same data just with a little bit of a different lens on it.
The left one is looking at whether it's kind of networking, we call them switches, right, for the most part, whether it's the transceivers and cables or the NIC's themselves. And then the right one is kind of looking at it from a protocol perspective whether we're Ethernet, InfiniBand or NVLink being the dominant ones, but you can see there's more than just those on the chart. And I think this is important, and we're trying to build that out as we go to the next chart here.
If we slice and dice where we are, and we kind of look at it, we can see that Ethernet, so the non-blue part of the charts, ultimately, it becomes the dominant technology. And again, this is kind of that move from historic AI was very much HPC oriented to one where AI is really about cloud and scale. And so Ethernet takes over there. But we can also then look at the chart and look at the different relationship there between optics and switching or NIC's and switching. And I think that's an important one, right?
If we look at these data points out there and not to spend too much time on your competitors, but when like a Cisco talks about this market, they're including not only their switching and silicon, but they're also talking about their transceiver business, especially Acacia and some of those kind of longer DCI links. And then when we talk about NVIDIA and what they're including, they include not only Ethernet switches, but they also include a NICs and optics. And kind of the key thing that I've seen in tracking this market for over 20 years is, say, each vendor has a different ratio of all those components.
So it's not apples-to-apples when we hear everything out there. It's really a large part of the NICs. And on this chart, in particular, I think it's interesting. I had to compress a lot of the data categories, we're actually tracking nearly 20 different categories in AI to count all those different permutations out there, how vendors buy equipment, how vendors would like things to be architected, how they'd like it to be consumed. So it really is a bunch of different things that get added up to the total market, not a $70 billion market and everything is exactly the same across the vendors.
Yes. No, that's a good point. Alan, if you look at your previous slide where you had the NVLink and the Ethernet, it's probably a good opportunity to explain to the audience here that NVLink is really 100% Scale Up, right? And in your Ethernet kind of forecast for the next few years, you have the Scale Up and the Scale Out portion in that same Ethernet bucket, right?
Yes, exactly. And so again, you can slice and dice this differently, but I think it goes back to the comments you had earlier, which is the speed necessary is significantly higher, right? We kind of started AI at 400-gig. And then obviously, we're moving to 8 and 1.6 whereas on the traditional compute side, for the most part, we were good at 25-gig or 100-gig. So the starting point on AI is just significantly higher than what we've seen in the past.
[ Agree ] with me, Alan, that the AI generation started with 400 gig.
I would agree with you. I think -- it started with 400. The problem there is we still talk about 10 gig in the data center for some customers. Yes, it's absolutely a different time frame. And I think if we start at 400, it helps frame the future, right? We're not going to go too far into next decade. But if we're starting at 4, then 3.2T, 6.4T shouldn't scare us, right? They're kind of a natural next step or next evolution in the speeds and feeds part of the conversation.
Alan, how do you see the xPU ecosystem or growth there? I mean, today, we have a dominant vendor. But how do you see the growth of XPUs from the incumbent today?
Yes. You're going to see a diversity of XPUs and GPUs going forward. And it's really about finding the right processor for the right workload. And so you can imagine if we're talking about social media and kind of more of a human engagement, that type of ASIC, whether it's a GPU or some of these XPUs that are coming out will look a lot different than what we're going to try to do on infrastructure as a service or a multi-tenancy into the enterprise. So you're going to see both of them thrive and thrive significantly. But as we kind of move forward, we should expect a more diverse and large set of XPUs in the market.
Which then, Martin, really opens up the opportunity for Scale Up for Ethernet vendors, right? It's a...
Scale Up and Scale Out.
And Scale Out, of course. Yes.
Yes, absolutely. So when we think xPU, we should really think Ethernet as the preferred mechanism there for both Scale Out and Scale Up. I don't know. I would assume that's what you guys see when you talk to customers.
Yes.
Yes. Great.
Right. So I just have 1 or 2 more slides to talk through, and then I think we can dive into these architecture conversations kind of setting that stage with some absolute numbers. So we talked about the pie shifting already towards the Ethernet and how every vendor is a little bit different in what they sell. And then if we kind of just take a little bit of a snapshot here, removing the optics. What we can see on the left is Ethernet versus InfiniBand.
This is kind of like the Scale Out conversation. And then I really like the chart on the right. If we look at the market today, we're right at that crossover. And again, I'm a little bit backward spacing, looking at quarterly shipments. But we absolutely see the point where Ethernet has caught up and is about to surpass InfiniBand from a Scale Up which are from a Scale Out topology example. So I think it's probably a lot of good work that yourself have been doing with customers, but ultimately, right, or at that point. So are you seeing the same thing, right? We're kind of past the point of InfiniBand versus Ethernet, and now we're on to how can the Ethernet get us to where we need to be.
What I find interesting about this chart, and I'm very happy to see the crossover is if you go back 4 quarters, 4 quarters, 5 quarters ago when we were facing questions from many people about InfiniBand versus Ethernet and suggesting that would Ethernet win through, could Ethernet win through. And you fast forward 4 quarters and the answer becomes a very simple, well, apparently, yes. So we're only Ethernet vendor. I can't tell you what we're shipping Ethernet versus anything else. You know what we're shipping, and these charts are reflecting that high volume of transition from InfiniBand to Ethernet.
And InfiniBand has been there for some time. It's very popular with HPC. And then once these small clusters started building up, InfiniBand was probably good enough for the networking. But what we're seeing now when we're talking to customers, they're really looking to build these large-sized clusters, and you're talking tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands of these GPUs.
At that point, InfiniBand runs into performance challenges, you have a sub net manager that controls the whole data plane communication and then once the cluster size becomes large, you can have convergence issues, if you have link flaps or certain parts of the network that have performance issues, it really becomes challenging for this controller to scale.
So that's where Ethernet was kind of really took on that role for these large clusters. And what customers also like the fact that it's open, open standards, the network teams are used to Ethernet and then the applications as they flow from back end trained data to front end and inferencing, it just makes the whole AI cluster performant.
I know we could spend like a whole hour talking about 1 million xPU clusters. But I think before we get there, let's kind of go down to the Connect side a little bit more at a smaller unit there. One of the questions I get a ton is how many optics are there per xPU, how much is copper?
How much is fiber, and so a question to both of you. In Scale Out networking, I kind of think about this as you have one approach, which is top of rack or middle of the rack and you have another approach, which is end of row. They're very distinct. But yourselves are talking to a lot more customers out there. Can you talk about Scale Out architectures and what you're seeing and what types of switches actually get deployed in each of those?
Yes. So I think you're getting the same questions we're getting. But if you think about how customers deploy networks, we moved rapidly from a 32 400-gig switch to a 32 by 400, 64 by 400 gig, 64 by 800 gig. So if you take your unit of networking as a 64 for 800 gig, we're going to use half of those interfaces for local connectivity to compute. You can't get 32 ports of 800-gig compute in a rack. So the natural conclusion there is I put my network switches in a middle of row, middle of 2 racks, middle of 3 racks, whatever fits for you, just because we've addressed the silicon scaling so rapidly that network switch is no longer a single switch per rack. And then the other aspect of that one, now I've used my 32 or 30 ports for local connectivity. The remainder of ports on that device is what I'm using for that full mesh connectivity back to the spine.
So the reason that we want a high rating switch as my leaf is so that I can have a very high network diameter at spine and Scale Up from hundreds to thousands to tens of thousands of GPUs. If you don't have that, you end up needing for the third tier, maybe a fourth tier or a fifth tier as the network, and we'll get on to that a little bit later. But the reason that customers are thinking about worrying about where to put that leaf switch is because once you're outside the rack, you get into that network cable length conversation. Copper gives you a 2-meter reach, maybe a 2.5, you can go to active copper, at 5, 7, 10 meters. 10 meters is pretty good for a 3-rack, 4-rack configuration.
And then yes, you're going to drop into a fiber connection with an optic or a transceiver. And at that point, you're not very far from doing an end of row. Six rows, 8 rows -- sorry, 6 racks, 8 racks, you end up with an end-of-row hybrid configuration. And the other aspect is you're probably going to want 2 switches, 4 switches, so maybe you have a network rack in a row and that's where you would deploy the network connectivity and that where you can actually have A planes, B planes, C planes and D planes coming out of the compute. So the network ratings of the leaf switch has driven some of these connectivity conversations which then turns the conversation about the rack arrangement. Hardev?
Yes. I'll give you an example. If you take a 8,000 GPU cluster, like Martin said, right, you take a 2-tier network, you're looking at almost 30,000, 32,000 optics, right? So the optics really add up and then the power of the optics is in a cluster size like that makes a big difference. So when we talk to customers, what they really care about is how can I have a performant network, a highly reliable network and how can I bring my power down. Any power that saved on the network side, whether it's very efficiently designed hardware or on the optics gives them that extra power that they can then put more GPUs, which adds business value, right?
So at Arista, we are the pioneers for the LPO optics technology. At 800-gig, we now see at least have a couple of large customers who are now deploying 800-gig LPO optics in decent sizable volumes.
And they really see their TCO with lower power with the power saved on the optics, they are able to then have more GPUs because even when these data centers are getting built, the power envelope is defined, right? So you cannot exceed that power. So any power savings on the network side, on the interconnect with optics gives them that option to have more compute, which directly translates to business value.
Yes. I have a couple of more copper questions. But since you brought up the LPO LRO conversation, can you talk about what does that actually change in the architecture if you're going to do LPO versus a standard transceiver?
So let me quickly explain what do you mean by LPO. So the LPO optic is the optic without the DSP, right? In the 800-gig generation, the electrical speeds match the optical speeds. You have 8 by 100 electrical matching to 8 by 100 optical. So you don't need the modulation. And then the Certus on these chipsets are powerful enough to push the signal without the DSP. So now when you take the DSP out, you're now reducing cost by 30%, 40%, you're reducing power of that optic by maybe 40% to 50%.
So that's really attractive to customers. So at a high level, that's the distinction between LPO and DSP-based optics or the regular optics that we talk about. LRO are basically retimed in one direction. So they're -- think of them in between LPO and the DSP optics.
And in terms of the network infrastructure, it doesn't change the sign. You can use the same fiber infrastructure, parallel duplex, the same link lengths inside these large-scale warehouses, you've got 2-kilometer runs. You've got LPO optics of 2 kilometers. So it doesn't change the physical layer, the layer one. What it does is it transforms the power that's being consumed by the optics. On our analysis, it's -- if you can drop the optics by 50%, you can drop the system power by 25%. And as Hardev said, that feeds through to the bottom line.
Okay. And then like what architectures are more popular. You mentioned you had some customers doing LPO. There are still transceivers, they're still copper. There's end of row, top of rack, et cetera. Like is the industry moving towards one topology? Or which ones are the more popular choices you see?
I mean you see very different architectures depending from customer to customer and from the size of the cluster, right, from a smaller size to a larger size. For a smaller cluster, yes, you can optimize cost. You can have copper connectivity, like Martin said, you have 2- to 3-meter reach, so you could have the switches top of rack or middle of the rack and then have AEC cables or even AOCs to go out to 7 meters or 30 meters and then go to optics for a longer reach.
Once you -- for customers who are building much larger-sized clusters, they are mostly going to standardize on a couple of optics. They'll probably have a 50-meter optic to connect to the GPUs to the NICs on the GPUs and then maybe a 50 or a 500-meter optic to have connectivity between a leaf spine or spine, super spine, right?
End of the day, from an architecture perspective, you want to stay in fewer tiers as possible. And the key differentiation that Arista brings with our AI Etherlink portfolio is we give customers that choice of selecting from not one, 3 different product families. So we have the fixed switches, the 7060 series, we have our flagship AI spine, 7800 modular chassis. And then we have the newest one, the 7700, the distributed Etherlink switch, which kind of really makes the chassis architecture and distribute it, right? So now even if you have a 2-tier network, it's just single hop, so that reduces latency power and then the performance of the network.
Yes. I'm kind of saying a similar thing where every customer is a little bit different. And I think that's an important distinction to make because -- when I look at kind of the market data there and we talked about, what you say, a fixed system that's top of rack, there's a lot of copper content. So going back to that DSP question, there's less DSPs or less transceivers there.
When you go to end of row or you're all fiber, right, there's far more transceivers in the network. And in my data, it's kind of a crazy spectrum. And what it means is, in some AI data centers, the optic can be like 40%, 50% of the cost, because you're all transceivers and you're going in that direction. And others, if you're using LPO or the first hop is copper, right? You can be down in a 20% range. So you get this wide dispersion of answers there. Every customer is really unique. And I think both of you just said the same thing, right? We're not getting common architectures, everyone is unique. I want to talk about 100,000 and 1 million xPU GPU clusters.
So let's go there because everyone loves that million number. What's different when we talk about a few thousand xPUs, 100,000, 200,000 and then 1 million? How does the architecture change?
So I know you want to talk about 100,000 and 1 million. Can we talk about a few hundred first?
Absolutely.
So we get a lot of customers coming in to talk to us and for a lot of enterprise customers or infrastructure providers, hundreds of GPUs is a significant milestone. And so for customers like that, we can address their net win requirements effectively in a single hub. That's a fixed or a modular architecture. So there is a vast number of small- to medium-sized GPU clusters that are measured in the hundreds of xPUs, hundreds of accelerators that we can address in a single-tier network.
Once you want to go up from 1k to 2k to 4 to 8 to 16, we're getting into real networking at that point. So within a 2-tier network design, based on either the 7060x fixed configuration or a combination of the 7060x with the 7800, we can get to 30,000, 32,000 depending on the port speed of the accelerator, 200-gig, 400-gig, your numbers will vary a little bit. Once you get beyond 32k up to 64k up to 100k, we're talking about some limits in terms of the radix, the diameter of that first hop switch that then feeds into the second tier of the network.
So we've just seen Broadcom announced their new Tomahawk 6 silicon, which is the world's first 100-terabit chip. That 100-terabit chip doubles the IO of that first half switch. So just by simple mathematic modeling, I can now double the diameter to my network. So a customer that maybe was having a limitation of 30,000 can now go to 60,000. If that 200 gig attached, you can now break through that 100,000 GPU, xPU limit using a single -- sorry, using 2-tier fixed configuration systems. Once you start talking about going beyond 100,000 to 0.25 million, 0.5 million, you're going to hit a number of challenges. The first challenge I see customers hitting is space and power. It's not a networking problem at this point.
I can build a 3-tier network that can address the physical requirements of connecting everything in the non-blocking or even undersubscribed design. You're going to hit a space and power constraint. Some customers are going to put in a second floor in their data center. They're going to put a second data center, a third data center close to the first one.
So now we're going to start talking about data center interconnect technologies being used between back-end networks to create this super cluster based on space, power, cooling, rather than just how many ports do you have on your switch and how long your fiber strands.
So Alan, in your research, you call out how many customers there are, that have got more than 1 million servers. Turn that around, realistically, how many customers are there, they're going to have more than 1 million accelerators in the short to medium term. So I'm going to turn that one back around on you, right? But we can build a network that can handle 1 million. Can customers deploy them in a data center?
Yes. I think it's unlikely. We're seeing a few million GPU, xPU clusters this decade, but it's measured in kind of like the fingers on your hand. There's not that many.
And we will be more than happy to talk to any and all of them about their network of wireless and how we can align there. But realistically, 30,000, 60,000, 100,000 is kind of where that architecture is today. And it's not necessarily in networking limitation. I think it's -- those additional challenges of civil engineering, power delivery, cooling and all the other challenges that come with that.
Yes. And you're even seeing customers just move a few miles down the road because that will let them tap a different municipalities power grid because, as you said, power is the constraining factor. So it's not even like, "Oh, you could book the building next door or go to a second floor." There's no power in that location. You've got to move elsewhere.
Right? So then we'll build some trenches and drop some fiber in, and I'll build you one super data center connected together.
Yes, absolutely. I mean...
[ Quite not ] simple, but you get the point.
Yes, it's not that simple, but it is pretty close, right? It's kind of like if you can put in a trench, you can do it. I've seen like in Virginia as an example, the policy there seems to be you can build as many new data centers as you want, but bring your own power. And therefore, you're not going to build many. I saw you both kind of giggle there. So are you seeing that? Obviously, Virginia is kind of the famous spot that's power limited, but are you seeing power limitations make us move to other locations?
We're seeing power limitations. We're talking about in the public media, small nuclear reactors, creative ways of getting access to power temporarily or even medium term, how is it you can just get more and more and more power. It is one of the limitations. I think the industry -- the global economy, if you will, is stepping up to that. But I think it becomes one of the short-term limiting factors on scale of the numbers of data centers that are going to get built.
Yes. And to add to that, there are a handful of customers who are really building these 100,000 GPU or going to 1 million GPU clusters. And these are really the foundation models that are getting trained where you need such a large cluster size. And when we talk to these customers, like you said, the power is defined at a site, right? And typically, they only allocate about 10% of that power that's available for the network or maybe you can include storage along with network. 90% of that power is for the GPUs.
So what these customers care about is really a best-of-breed network to make sure that those GPUs are performing well, right? And where Arista again, differentiates is with our modular chassis with the AI spine and now DES, it really gives customers that flexibility to architect the network in a way that you have as fewer tiers as possible. In the fewer tiers, you have less hardware, less optic interconnects, really kind of enables them to stay within that 10% power envelope and then move more power to the GPUs.
And avoiding idle time.
And accelerators.
Accelerators cost a lot, right? I'd to get 100% utilization out of them rather than 70% utilization. So anything you can do in the network to avoid a bottleneck to avoid drops, link level issues, anything you do in the network is the network getting out of the way and allowing accelerators to do the job that you've assigned them?
Yes. Any slowdown in job completion time is loss of revenue. So again, coming back to the network being critical and that's where software plays an even important role. Customers not only want a very reliable low-power network but also the features to support these workloads. And these workloads can really vary from like the LLMs like we're talking about or custom AI workloads with our EOS on our hardware, we have developed a bunch of features with load balancing, for example, we have DLB, and then we have our Arista cluster load balancing feature, which really takes the performance of load balancing up by, let's say, 8% to 10%.
And what CLB really does is when you're -- when you have this traffic coming out of the GPUs, hits the leaf switch and then you kind of distribute across the spine switches, with CLB, you're now able to not only have the distribution or this even distribution from the leaf to spine, but also from the spine coming back to the leaf.
So now you have a perfectly hashed well-load balanced network. To add to that, visibility and telemetry are equally important to these customers. They want to know what's going on and really debugging job performance is a hard thing. And believe it or not, many times, the network teams get blamed in correctly. So we've developed a bunch of features in our -- for example, our CloudVision, which is a management software where customers can see where the jobs are slowing down, did a link fail, how can I improve the link failures.
So all of that visibility is provided on the CloudVision dashboard, which we've actually worked closely with a large customer, where we've developed custom dashboards in CloudVision to address visibility, monitoring and deployment of these AI networks.
So I think you're going to tell me that Arista always planned for the size of 1 million xPUs and all joking aside, you've done some amazing things. But how is software evolving to get to that scale? You mentioned load balancing. But I'm assuming it's a lot more complicated than you just add 1 or 2 more features in order to build at that scale.
So load balancing is definitely one of the important features, but then congestion control. There are a bunch of knobs or features we are doing with DCQCN, whether it's PFC or ECN. So congestion control is important, load balancing, like I said, visibility and telemetry and then, of course, the routing and the routing protocols are important as well.
And the other thing, Alan, I don't know that we planned for 1 million. What you do is you plan the foundation of the house. You plan to have a high-quality operating system that's feature-rich, reliable, doesn't cause an outage. So you start with that strong foundation of a solid quality software stack, as you get the newer, higher-performance switches, you don't switch horses onto a new operating system written from the ground up.
We're still relying on the same operating system. We've always shipped on our switches and routers. So I think that -- it's not the planning for 1 million, but it's putting the foundation in place so that as we evolve our journey and as customers evolve their journey, then at least we're going on this journey together.
And like we touched on earlier, the 1 million is not going to be in 1 physical location, right?
Not yet.
I mean, Martin hinted to that, too. So you're going to have this distributed data centers at different physical locations connected via a DC interconnect to really have that one big cluster size.
Yes. It feels like from where we just went, we're going to have that foundational models going to 1 million, 1 million-plus, it's multisite, maybe somebody gets sales site. We're going to have the small business or large enterprise in hundreds of GPUs, like kind of measured in the racks and then there's probably a sweet spot in between for inference scale. Not that we're going to have only 3 types, but it feels like the industry is heading towards rightsized GPUs and rightsized network for the job, right?
Yes.
And in the enterprise, also there are certain verticals we're seeing, whether it's financials, research, health care as well as autonomous driving. So all these applications where they have a ton of data, we see these customers starting to build, like you say, a small size, but we are in conversations with them where we see them kind of expanding as their data kind of increases and they see business value out of it. So I think there's a lot of action in the enterprise with AI as well.
I always -- I'm curious about what's going to happen with all these new specs. So we've got Ultra Ethernet. There is UALink. There's a few others. How do these new standards kind of impact to the network?
So today, Alan, when we look at our products, right, the Etherlink AI portfolio, whether it's a fixed boxes chassis or DES, we are NIC agnostic. Whether the NIC can do packet spraying or not, whether it can do out-of-order packet delivery, whether you have the DPU-based NICs, any kind of NIC, our network is agnostic to that.
With UET, we will have the capability in these next-generation NICs to do all these things at a protocol level. So UET, which is the Ultra Ethernet Transport Protocol will add features like packet spraying, out-of-order packet delivery, better congestion control at the protocol level. So we're hoping NIC from maybe Broadcom or AMD will have these features going forward, which then will kind of make the network even more performant, right?
Yes. Do those standards lead us to Ethernet for Scale Up? Or is Ethernet going to be in Scale Up anyway because that's what Ethernet always does is it takes on those additional hard problems.
So again, with the Broadcom announcement of the Tomahawk 6, they absolutely made it clear that Tomahawk 6 is built for a Scale Up Ethernet architecture. If you look again at the size of the racks, the density of the compute, the amount of power that's going into them, there's a benefit to having locality between a rack's worth of compute. So you build these high-speed interconnects, and it's a natural place for an Ethernet technology, because it's multivendor and open, so it gives you the flexibility. So Ethernet does have a role to play in the Scale Up aspects of these networks in the same way that Ethernet has a role to play in the back-end.
So I'd like to say it's a back-end for the back-end and it gets very confusing, because then the front-end is a classic. But the Scale Up network is the back-end for the back-end. These networks don't necessarily talk to each other. So you end up with dedicated isolated networks but the features, the tools, the troubleshooting, the monitoring, the telemetry, they didn't change. So people still want that same end-to-end visibility to the front-end network, the back-end network and the Scale Up network. There's no reason why Ethernet cannot be the significant technology in that area of the network as well.
Yes. While UEC is really for the Scale Out network, the opportunity on Scale Up is tremendous, right? As we -- like we discussed earlier, as the xPU ecosystem expands, Ethernet with its reliability and openness will be an option for Scale Up networking as well, and we're pretty excited about that.
Yes. I think it's cool. So I think about this a little bit differently. We're on the cusp of every person in North America, having more than 1 DC switch port associated with them. So like the volumes here as Ethernet grows are truly amazing. All of us are probably like a switch in and of ourselves between our personal lives and our social media lives like multiple ports.
Yes. I mean we have 4 of us in the house, probably 5 devices for each person. So they're just -- there's a lot of devices per person, yes. I believe that statistic. Yes.
So we've talked about the customer, you two sit in some admirable roles of talking to a ton of customers being with the latest and greatest silicon, but I think there's still a lot of blind spots out there. So maybe if I could ask each of you individually. If you could give one piece of advice or one piece of coaching to the customer on their AI journey to make it better, what would that be?
So I'll take that question first, Alan. My guide to any customer, whether they're building an AI network or a front-end network is plan early, plan often and keep coming back and revisiting the plans. But do trust the networking vendors that we understand the requirements. We understand how to build these debt works, so engage with us, work with us. And the features that Hardev has described in terms of traffic management, in terms of telemetry, in terms of visibility, whilst a lot of these features are directly applicable to these new back-end AI networks, there actually equally applicable to the classic front-end network.
So don't throw out the baby with the bath water, use Ethernet technologies, use your best-of-breed networking vendors, but there are some new unique challenges about scale, performance, some of the network architectures are going to change. Things we've talked about with LPO optics or reaches. Some of those things were a little bit different. That's why it's important to get ahead of this and not have it come at you without any planning.
Yes. I would say depending on your AI workloads, depending on what you're trying to get out of this network, pick the right platform. At Arista, I believe we have close to 20 products for AI, again, back-end and front-end compared to some of our competitors who probably have one.
Much fewer.
Much fewer, and you're trying to take that same box and try to fit it everywhere. But the back-end network is higher bandwidth, but the feature set is very similar to the front-end. Pick the best-of-breed network. LPO is a promising technology, which will help reduce your CapEx as well as OpEx. So the overall TCO comes down and then end of the day, better job completion times. That would be my take on that.
Yes. I would chime in there. I would have said the network is not only in the glue that's going to provide all the connectivity, but it's also going to be the enabler to the technology, whether we're monetizing it at an application level, a consumer level, the network is going to provide us with that user experience into these AI clusters. And so without the network, we won't have self-driving cars or robots or agents today. So that would be my thinking. It's just we need the network to enable these applications and we're all going to be part of that kind of transformation into the AI world.
Remind me again, Alan, who is it said the network is the computer?
You.
No, no, definitely not. I think it was one of the founders of Sun Microsystems.
Yes. There are some famous founders at their hands and Ethernet, that's for sure. So I think that's a great time, Martin, Hardev so thank you so much. I learned a bunch and I hope our audience did as well. So appreciate your time and always a bunch of fun going back and forth with you. So thank you very much.
Thank you, Alan.
Thank you, Alan.
Lot of fun.
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Arista Networks, Inc. — Special Call - Arista Networks, Inc.
Arista Networks, Inc. — Special Call - Arista Networks, Inc.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Arista positioniert sich als Ethernet‑First‑Anbieter für AI‑Netzwerke: klare Trennung Scale‑Up (in‑rack, GPU‑zu‑GPU) vs. Scale‑Out (clusterübergreifend) und Fokus auf hohe Bandbreiten (400G→800G+), Software‑Funktionen und energieeffiziente Optiken.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Produktbreite: Etherlink‑AI‑Portfolio mit Fixed (7060), Distributed (7700) und modularer Spine (7800) für unterschiedliche Clustergrößen.
- Optik & Power: LPO‑Optiken (Optik ohne DSP) senken Energieverbrauch und Kosten deutlich (Management nennt ~40–50% weniger Power, ~30–40% weniger Optik‑Cost) und erlauben mehr GPU‑Leistung im selben Power‑Envelope.
- Software: CloudVision‑Telemetrie, Cluster Load Balancing (CLB, +8–10% Performanceangabe) und Maßnahmen zu Staukontrolle (DCQCN, PFC, ECN) sind zentrale Unterscheidungsmerkmale.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Markt/Hardware: Management berichtet von ersten nennenswerten Deployments von 800G‑LPO‑Optiken; Broadcoms Tomahawk‑6 (100Tb) wird als Enabler für größere Single‑Site‑Cluster (Verdopplung der Switch‑IO) genannt.
- Keine Guidance: Es wurden keine finanziellen Prognosen oder Kundenzahlen offengelegt — Fokus auf Architektur, TCO und Technologie‑Trends statt auf konkrete Umsatz‑/Timing‑Angaben.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Skalierung: Diskussion über Clustergrößen: hunderte → zehntausende GPUs sind heute realistisch; jenseits ~100k sind Platz, Strom und Kühlung oft limitierender als reine Netzwerktechnik.
- Topologie & Medien: Top‑of‑rack vs. middle/end‑of‑row, Kupfer für kurze Distanzen, Glasfaser/LPO für größere Reichweiten; Architekturwahl beeinflusst Anteil Optiken im CAPEX stark.
- Ethernet vs. Konkurrenz: Management sieht Ethernet (inkl. künftiger UET/UALink‑Funktionalitäten) auf dem Vormarsch gegenüber InfiniBand/NVLink für viele Scale‑Up/Scale‑Out‑Use‑Cases; konkrete Zeitfenster blieben vage.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Für Investoren: Arista verkauft eine kombinierte Hardware‑Software‑Story: breite Produktpalette, Energiespar‑Optiken und AI‑spezifische Software sind klare Differenzierer. Wichtige Treiber bleiben Adoption von 800G/LPO, Tomahawk‑6‑Einsatz und Umsatzanteil bei Optiken; maßgebliche Risiken sind Infrastruktur‑Limits (Strom/Fläche) und fehlende konkrete Kunden‑/Timing‑angaben.
Finanzdaten von Arista Networks, Inc.
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 9.710 9.710 |
31 %
31 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 3.541 3.541 |
33 %
33 %
36 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 6.169 6.169 |
29 %
29 %
64 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 700 700 |
23 %
23 %
7 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | 1.315 1.315 |
25 %
25 %
14 %
|
|
| EBITDA | 4.237 4.237 |
32 %
32 %
44 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 82 82 |
36 %
36 %
1 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 4.155 4.155 |
32 %
32 %
43 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 3.721 3.721 |
23 %
23 %
38 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
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Arista Networks, Inc. Aktie News
Firmenprofil
Arista Networks, Inc. beschäftigt sich mit der Entwicklung, dem Marketing und dem Verkauf von Cloud-Netzwerklösungen. Seine Cloud-Netzwerklösungen bestehen aus Extensible Operating System (EOS), einer Reihe von Netzwerkanwendungen und Ethernet-Switching- und Routing-Plattformen. Das Unternehmen wurde im Oktober 2004 von Andreas Bechtolsheim, David Cheriton und Kenneth Duda gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Santa Clara, Kalifornien.
aktien.guide Premium
| Hauptsitz | USA |
| CEO | Ms. Ullal |
| Mitarbeiter | 5.115 |
| Gegründet | 2004 |
| Webseite | www.arista.com |


